Lions Sign Eric Wright; Are They Onto Something?

I almost overlooked him. I almost left him off my cornerback shopping list. “It would be a lot of extra typing,” I thought. “I’ve got to get this post up soon,” I fretted. But there was something about Eric Wright, something about his potential and production, something about his story intrigued me. I got a feeling I’ve gotten a few times before, a vibe like I’m onto something. So, I took the time to delve into Wright’s PFF data, and I’m glad I did:

Eric Wright’s inclusion on this list may surprise some, as the Browns’ 2007 2nd-round pick actually received death threats over his perceived poor play last season. PFF graded him poorly indeed, with a –4.3 overall. His coverage mark was a rotten –11.9, second-worst in the NFL. However, Wright intrigues me for several reasons: first, he’s 5’-10”, 190, so a decently-sized fellow. Second, was graded +3.3 in pass rush, third-best in the NFL, and +4.7 in run support, 12th-best in the NFL.

It’s true, Wright was burned for 6 TDs, and he allowed opposing quarterbacks a fifth-worst 121.5 passer rating. But he’s clearly physically gifted, and at 25 still quite young. I also identified a trend with the PFF data . . .

In 2008, Wright had the eighth-best overall cornerback PFF grade. Over 1052 snaps, he turned in an +11.1 rating, despite a –1.1 coverage mark. His run support and pass rush made such an impact, he was the only corner in the top 25 with an even slightly negative coverage mark. He played every snap at left CB. In 2009, he flip-flopped between right and left corner all season long, and his performances were uneven. At work for a whopping 1106 snaps, thrown at 89 times, Wright turned in an overall grade 0f –0.5.

In 2010, Wright played left corner exclusively, until he suffered a bone bruise and got moved in to nickel. He struggled all year long, turning in mostly neutral grades, plus four negatives and a single positive. Oddly, his best performance of the year was in Week 2 (+2.9), and his worst was Week 3 (-4.4) . . . what I’m driving at here is that Wright is a young, talented player with a lot of experience, and he’s proven to be exceptional—truly exceptional—at a couple different dimensions of his position. It’s true that the one exception, coverage, is the one we’re really looking for, but if he’s available for peanuts, he’s exactly the kind of reclamation project the Lions do brilliantly with.

In many ways, Eric Wright is as Chris Houston was: a 2007 second-round draft pick who made an immediate impact, was widely hailed as a an up-and-comer, then had a down year and was given up on. Wright had a longer track record of greater success, but his one bad year was a much bigger disaster.

Wright has always had talent. A three-star RB/DB out of San Francisco, he had offers from almost all of the Pac-10—and he committed to USC. As a redshirt freshman, he stepped on the field and started for the Trojans as they won the National Championship lost institutional control. Wright himself had four tackles and an interception for the Trojans as they won did not play in the 2005 BCS National Championship Orange Bowl.

In March 2005, Wright was accused of committing sexual assault. The charges were dropped, but the stigma didn’t disappear. Faced with a suspension, Wright chose to transfer to UNLV, sitting out a year before getting back on the field for what would be his final college season. He declared for the draft—and though many teams thought the 5’-10”, 190-pound had first-round talent, Wright fell due to character concerns over the incident:

Despite sparkling in workouts during the draft process, Wright also had to convince teams he was worth the risk on the character meter. The Browns were among several teams that rated him draftable.

Said Browns general manager Phil Savage, "I believe in second chances."

Savage said that, in addition to a team investigation that confirmed Wright had no legal issues before or after the incident two years ago, he relied on gut feeling. Savage interviewed Wright at the combine, visited with him at a workout and along with coach Romeo Crennel gained a feel when Wright came to Browns headquarters weeks before the draft.

Wright scored points with the Browns and other teams with his openness.

"He kind of just laid out his side of the story," Savage said. "He basically said, 'I made a mistake, and I haven't made a mistake since.' "

The Browns actually traded up for Wright, sending third- and fourth-round picks to Dallas, and swapping positions in the sixth, to add Wrights’s second-round slot. Per that USA Today article, then-Browns GM Phil Savage said he would have considered Wright at the Browns’ original second-rounder (36th overall) had he not traded it away to get Brady Quinn. Ahem.

Wright, as said above, quickly developed into an outstanding young corner. In 2008 and 2009, he started all 32 games for the Browns, had 7 interceptions, and 27 passes defensed. Then . . . something went wrong. The Cleveland Browns blog Dawgs by Nature said:

For the first three years of his career, Wright was a solid cornerback for the Browns. Opposing teams seemed to stay away from him and he rarely gave up the big play. Last year, the Browns received additional help at the position in Sheldon Brown and Joe Haden. Teams started going after Wright at the beginning of the season, and forever reason, he looked completely lost. It was not the same Wright we had seen his first three years in Cleveland. It was almost as bad as Jake Delhomme's playoff collapse when he was with the Panthers a couple years ago. When Delhomme threw a pass the following season, you always had a bad feeling. With Wright, whenever a team targeted him deep, you had the feeling that it was going to result in a touchdown. It usually did, especially if your name is Anquan Boldin.

Interestingly, the members of that blog voted at 2:1 clip to keep Wright around, and many of the comments suggested that the problem with Wright was being hung out to dry by a terrible pass rush. At the Browns’ Scout.com site, the Orange and Brown Report, users speculated about personal problems, or some kind of off the field distraction. OBR member “Brownieman,” though, posited the following:

What I want to know... and I hope nickelbacker is still lurking around and will be willing to shed some light on this.... is did Eric REALLY have an off year? Or was it other circumstances? Up until last year Wright has been way above average for us, he has been our best corner since he was drafted. He was rarely abused by ANYONE before last year. Now I doubt he just forgot how to play defense.... something else had to be going on.

Does anyone think that Wright's struggles last year, may have anything to do with Ward blowing coverages? . . . If Ward had responsibilities over the top, and read the play wrong, it would have left Wright on an island, when he believed he had a man providing coverage further up the field. This would explain how WR's were able to get extreme amounts of separation over the top. Wright is not slow, and I find it hard to believe that he "couldn't" run with Anquan Boldin. It makes more sense, that Wright followed Boldin through his zone and then broke off coverage as he was leaving his zone and entering Wards area of the field... Only to realize that Ward was out of position, which in turn makes Wright abandon his responsibilities and try to provide some sort of coverage instead of letting a man just run free up the field . . . I may be off, but to me, it seems like Wright is taking the blame for Ward's growing pains.

Obviously, the Browns are letting Wright walk, so he can’t just be a victim of circumstance. To whatever degree it was his fault, Wright’s play took an unexpected, unprecedented step back last season. But there’s no denying that Wright has the tools and talent to be a top corner in the NFL—and spent three years proving he was on track to do just that before he derailed last year. Tom Kowalski’s recent Tweet bears this out:

Talked to a few NFL personnel people ... they think Detroit landed a terrific player in Eric Wright .. coming off bad year, but great talent

No one knows whether Wright can recover his previous form. For that reason, I’m glad he’s on a one-year deal—and I hope the Lions aren’t done signing starting-caliber cornerbacks. If Wright plays like he did last year, and Nate Vasher is the #2, the Lions’ secondary could well be their Achilles heel. However, if Wright bounces back like Houston did, and the Lions re-sign Houston? Suddenly the cornerbacks look very, very solid. Only time will tell whether Mayhew’s gamble pays off . . . but I feel like he’s onto something.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,eric wright,cleveland browns,nfl free agency,cornerbacks

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The Lions’ Free Agency Picture Gets Clearer

On Monday, I posted the timeline for contracts and signings, and noted that what happens midweek will set the stage for the moves to come:

Besides the rumors of who’s negotiating with who that will hit the wire come Tuesday lunchtime, keep a close watch on Thursday for the release of Lions veterans. Cuts, and whispers of renegotiated contracts for players like Jeff Backus, will hint broadly at the Lions’ approach. Will they be major players for major contributors, or just dipping a finger in the frosting of a rich free agent cake?

A few moves have already been made: Bryant Johnson has been informed of his impending release, Dave Rayner has agreed to return to compete for the kicking job, and free agent OLB Stephen Nicholas will return to the Falcons. Now, the National Football Post is reporting that the Lions have offered Titans MLB Stephen Tulloch a contract with a $10M bonus, and that Lions staff and players alike are helping recruit Tulloch to Detroit.

If they could land him, it would neatly upgrade two positions at once: Tulloch would step in as MLB, and DeAndre Levy would return to the outside. With Bobby Carpenter a free agent, the Lions would still have to add an OLB of some kind, but the LB corps would be greatly improved regardless.

The question remains: what are the Lions’ plans for the cornerback position? The amount of cap room the Lions have left isn’t great; my thought was they’d be able to get a handful of decent players, or perhaps make a big splash on one and get one more good guy. If Tulloch agrees to this apparently-massive deal, I’m not sure they’ll be able to make a run at Johnathan Joseph, as ESPN’s Chis Mortenson rumored.

Then again, as Sports Business Journal’s Liz Mullen pointed out on Twitter, the NFL’s new salary cap is “soft.” It’s a leaguewide maximum total, not a per-team maximum—and even then, there’s some wiggle room ($3M of exceptions in the first year, for example). Perhaps the Lions are simply going to go for broke—add two long-term, quality starters in Tulloch and Joseph, and round out the bottom of the roster with lots and lots of youth. I can’t say the vision I’m seeing through the fog is entirely unpleasant.

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Thickening The Herd: The Lions’ UDFA Cattle Call

Last night, Twitter was burning up with rumors of undrafted free agent contract agreements. Speculation, rumor, confirmation; media and players and agents and fans all Tweeting at, about, and over each other about who’s going where. I was fielding questions about potential and actual signees, and I had to say something that I don’t like to say: “I don’t know.”

For starters, as I’ve said, I don’t know very much about college football. Once I get past Michigan State and their rivals in the Big Ten, my knowledge of NCAA pigskin is barely skin deep. I love the NFL draft, but I don’t typically “scout” prospects projected to go after the fourth round. I certainly don’t familiarize myself with potential UDFA. Why? Because I love the Lions, and I love the NFL—and, especially with the roster in its current state—undrafted free agent rookies have a Olympic mountain to climb to make the roster.

Let’s look at position we’re stressing about: Offensive Tackle. With Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus both coming off of injury, it would make sense to pursue some “help” at offensive tackle, right? Well, the Lions already have Jason Fox, Corey Hilliard, Tony Ugoh, and Johnny Culbreath behind those two. The Lions aren’t carrying six, or even five, pure offensive tackles on a roster of 53. Any UDFA is going to have to prove that he’s better than the guy the Lions drafted ahead of him, plus two of Fox, Hilliard, and Ugoh, just to make the team. It’s nearly impossible that a UDFA could actually provide “help” at the offensive tackle spot.

Of course, the starting roster is thinner in other places, but not by much. The Lions have 77 players on their roster, with 14 of them due to be free agents. With the new camp roster limit of 90, the Lions will be signing twenty-seven players over the coming week or so, and at least half of the resultant 90-man roster won’t even dress for Week 1. There will be an unprecedented number of “new Detroit Lions,” most of whom have almost no chance of impacting the Lions’ season.

When the news broke of the Lions’ agreement to terms with Alabama TE/FB/H-back Preston Dial, longtime commenter/Tweeter @Dustin_aka_D asked me if I knew whether Lions planned to use him as a tight end, or a fullback. @Dustin_aka_D saw the stacked depth chart at TE and wondered what the Lions were planning to do with Dial. Long story short, they plan to bring him into camp and see if he’s an NFL-caliber football player—the same as all these UDFAs.

I've said before that the Lions are going to the playoffs. They see themselves as a playoff team. They have a playoff-caliber roster. The days of the Lions signing a Randy Philips off the street and thinking, “Wow, this guy could upgrade our starting lineup!” are over. It’s not anything against these young men—if Dial proved himself the next Chris Cooley I’d be ecstatic—but a sign of how far the Lions have come in how short of a time.

So. Over the next few hours, let’s heartily welcome our new, young Lions. Let’s wish them a great camp and a successful showing and as long of a career in the NFL as they can muster. But, let’s not burden them—or ourselves, with any kind of expectations about what they’ll be able to contribute to the bottom line.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,free agency,undrafted free agents,preston dial

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The NFL Lockout Is Over. What’s Next For the Lions?

In case you haven’t heard, the NFL Lockout is officially—really, truly, and finally—over. Don your silliest party hat, find one of those wheedly flicky-tongue things, pour yourself a pint of your favorite, and turn up “Celebration” by Kool and the Gang.  The NFL lockout is officially over, and football can finally begin . . . well, mostly. Per SI’s obtained copy of the settlement terms, here’s how the timeline breaks down:

• As of midnight tonight (Tuesday AM), players may have full, regular contact with team staff, and use team facilities for voluntary workouts as normal. Teams will be able to trade players currently under contract.
• As of Tuesday at 10:00 AM, teams may sign rookies both drafted and un-. They may begin negotiating with other teams’ free agents.
• The Lions’ training camp will open on Thursday.
• As of Thursday at 4:01 PM, teams may waive or release veterans currently under contract.
• As of Friday at 6:01 PM, teams may renegotiate existing contracts, and sign new veteran contracts. Signed rookies will be able to partake in organized practice at this time, and receive injury protection.
• As of Thursday, August 4th, the new League Year begins [presuming the CBA has been ratified by the players], and all teams must be under the cap.

This sets the stage for the wildest week of football talk in the history of the Internet. In the course of the next five days, the Lions will open their doors, sign all their draft picks, fight all the other clubs to sign ten or so UDFA, begin the chess match of free agent negotiation, start training camp, and THEN sign new veterans as current ones leave, clawing and scrapping with the other 31 teams to get 90 (!) guys on the roster by this time next week.

Meanwhile, the Lions will have to mind their salary cap Ps and Qs: the cap will be set at $120,375,000 with an extra $3M in veteran exceptions. Per Roar Report capologist DeadStroke, the Lions carried ~$127M in cap charges back in March. Much more recently, ESPN’s John Clayton reported that after expected departures, the Lions would have $16.6M of cap room—but the Detroit News’s Chris McCosky wrote last Wednesday that he couldn’t figure out how Clayton found anywhere near that much cap space.

This makes Nnamdi Asomugha a pipe dream—and even the Lions’ reported top target, Johnathan Joseph, a stretch. Besides the rumors of who’s negotiating with who that will hit the wire come Tuesday lunchtime, keep a close watch on Thursday for the release of Lions veterans. Cuts, and whispers of renegotiated contracts for players like Jeff Backus, will hint broadly at the Lions’ approach. Will they be major players for major contributors, or just dipping a finger in the frosting of a rich free agent cake?

For tonight, though, we celebrate! Come down to the blue bonfire, and make yourself at home. The casks of cider are full to bursting, and the blue flame has scarcely roared higher. We’ll toast the return of the team we love, the new players we’re about to welcome, and the glorious new season we’re surely about to go through together. This is our time; this is our year. Money couldn’t stop it, the lawyers couldn’t stop it, and the bickering couldn’t even slow it down. Celebrate with me, friends, together.

Technorati Tags: nfl,nfl lockout,nfl cba,nfl collective bargaining agreement,detroit lions,training camp

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Old Mother Hubbard: Shopping for Linebackers, Pt. II

When we first shopped for linebackers, we assumed the Lions would be bringing in a new middle linebacker and shifting Andre Levy outside. The result? Stephen Tulloch was the only 4-3 MLB who looked like a clear upgrade over Levy, though Kirk Morrison looked like an excellent option if the Lions wanted to bring in a pure run-stopper. My suspicion, though, is that the Lions won’t have anyone but Tulloch or Levy in the middle, because they value knowledge of the system and defensive playcalling above pure tackling ability. So, let’s presume the Lions pursue (but don’t land) Stephen Tulloch, and attempt to upgrade the outside linebacker position.

That guy in Carolina blue (or something like it) is James Anderson, a surprise tackling surprise on a terrible Panther defense. Fantasy football players in IDP leagues know all about this guy, as he racked up 100 solo tackles and 12 assists (by Pro Football Focus’s count). Of course, being on a terrible defense, he played about 1,100 snaps to rack those totals up—2nd most of any 4-3 OLB. But if you divide snaps by his total tackles and missed tackles, you see he had a chance to make a tackle in every 9.1 of those 1,110 snaps, a rate placing him in the upper third of 41 qualifying outside linebackers.

Anderson’s grades, not surprisingly, look great. His +14.1 overall slotted him 3rd-best in the NFL; he was surprisingly well-rounded, too, grading well above average in pass rush, pass coverage, run stopping, and penalty drawing. His 6 sacks, 5 QB hits, and 8 QB pressures are eye-popping, especially considering Anderson played all but two games on the strong side of Carolina’s defense. He wasn’t an especially sure tackler, though: if I add his solos to one-half his assists, and divide that number by his missed tackles (9), I get a tackle-to-missed tackle ratio of 11.8—that’s below average, and ranked 31st of 41.

Anderson’s coverage, though graded well, is a bit of a mixed bag. He was targeted 61 times; 4th-most in the NFL, but when you account for his snap count he wasn’t especially picked on. He allowed 80% of those targets to be caught; that’s 23rd-best, just about at the median. His average allowed YpC was 8.0, 9th-best in the NFL and much better than average—though an average 6.0 yards of that was allowed YAC, a more middling number. With one interception and two passes defensed, he doesn’t make impact plays against the pass often—and his 102.9 passer rating allowed is right down the middle of the road, too.

The 6'-2", 235-pound Anderson would fit very well with the Lions. He's a solid, above-average all-around 4-3 OLB with a surprising knack for getting to the quarterback—a trait not easy to come by. But, will he be available? Back before the CBA expired, the Panthers didn’t consider re-signing Anderson a priority because 4-3 SLBs are fairly easy to come by. Now, though, Panthers beat writer Joe Person Tweeted that the Panthers want Anderson. How badly they want him is an open question.

Keith Bulluck, like Stephen Tulloch, is another free-agent-to-be ‘backer with a Schwartzingham pedigree. The 34-year-old Bulluck played a rotational role with the Giants last season, seeing just over 300 snaps. He’d averaged about a thousand over the prior two seasons with the Titans, so this was quite a dropoff. Still the nominal starter at strongside linebacker, though, Bulluck graded out as the ninth-best 4-3 OLB.

Part of the reason for Bulluck’s low snap count: the Giants took Bulluck off the field in nickel situations. Bulluck was coming off of knee surgery, and the Giants didn’t trust him in coverage. Bulluck, though, earned PFF’s 10th-best  coverage grade, a +1.9. He was thrown at just 16 times all year, and Bulluck allowed just 8 receptions; that 50% allowed-reception rate was the best in the NFL. He also, incredibly, picked off two of those 16 targets—leading to a NFL-best 44.8 passer rating allowed. Clearly, coverage was not an issue.

Pass rush, however, was a problem—Bulluck made no impact there (+0.1). Bulluck told the New York Post that lack of explosion was where the recovering knee hurt him the most:

""I kind of know the things I was lacking and the things where normally I was strong and where I wasn't as strong," Bulluck said. "Point of attack and explosion were my two biggest things I was missing. Initial contact was fine. When it came to the drive and follow through, even on tackles, dealing with offensive linemen, those things I had the most trouble because I wasn't used to being in that situation."

Bulluck’s run grades didn’t suffer much: his +5.6 was the 15th-best of the 41 qualifying OLBs. Clearly, his veteran savvy put him in the right place at the right time, and kept blockers off him. However, as he said, he had trouble driving and following through, and it showed up in his tackling stats. He had 18 solos and 3 assists, but 4 missed tackles—a miss for every 4.9 tackles, the fifth-worst ratio by a 4-3 OLB last year. However, 12 of those 18 solos were Stops—tied for fifth-best in the NFL. Most telling? Bulluck turned in an incredible +4.8 individual game grade in Week 3—against Tennesee.

Many times, when athletes are put on the scrap heap, they complain they’re worth more than the team thinks they are—in this case, the data backs Bulluck up. He feels he deserves to be a “bigger part of a team’s puzzle,” and he’s exactly right. He knows Detroit is where he’ll best be primed to make an impact, too: the Lions top his three-team destination shortlist.

Quincy Black is a player I’ve always had a soft spot for. The 6’-2”, 240-pound Black sat on my dynasty league practice squad for a few years, waiting for his chance to crack the Bucs’ defensive lineup. In 2009, he finally got a chance—and while he struggled early, he played very very well down the stretch. 2010 was a coming-out party: Black was the 12th-best PFF-graded OLB in 2010, with a +8.0 overall grade. Black was very well-rounded, too: solidly above-average in pass rush (+1.3, avg. +0.5), well above-average in coverage (+2.9, avg. –2.2), and right on par against the run (+2.8, avg. +2.9).

Unfortunately, Black’s breakout fourth season was cut short by a broken arm. In the eleven games he played, he turned in six strongly positive grades, and only one negative one. Black was a sure tackler, making 12.9 tackles per miss. He was thrown at at a roughly average rate, once every 18.1 snaps. He did an average job allowing completions (79.3%, avg. 78.1%),  well above-average allowing YpC (8.1, avg. 9.5), and above-average in allowed passer rating (90.5, avg. 98.8). Black didn’t make many plays on the ball, with one interception and one pass defensed on his 29 TAs.

On WDFN, Tom Kowalski recently said that Black is a player to keep an eye out for; at 27, matching the physical profile, and coming off of a breakout year, he’d be a perfect long-term addition to the core of this young defense. If Tampa won’t open up the pursestrings to keep their 2007 third-round pick around, well, he’d be money well spent.

The dark horse of the OLB free agent class is Justin Durant, a 6’-1”, 240-pound wrecking ball from the Jaguars—a wrecking ball with a couple of cracks. Just look at the radar chart above: Durant’s stonking +15.5 against the run is second-best in the NFL.  His missed tackle rate, one per 8.1 made, is right in the middle of the pack. This suggests, like Bulluck, Durant is slicing through blocking to get to the correct lanes, over and over and over again, showing veteran savvy in just his fourth year. even if his finishing isn’t top-notch.

There are two big concerns about Durant: one is his inability to stay healthy; he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons, plus six games last season. Second, he graded out as poorly against the pass as he did well against the run. His appalling –13.2 on coverage put him fourth-worst in the NFL, and his –1 in pass rush is below-average, too. He’s allowed a slightly-better-than-average 75.6% of his targets to be caught, and his passer rating allowed is dead on NFL average: 98.6, vs. 98.8 . . . but you don’t earn a –13.2 on only 491 snaps without being consistently poor in coverage. Durant has the physical tools to be an impact player, but so far it’s more potential than production.

Stephen Nicholas was a name I hadn’t heard before embarking on this shopping trip, but he’s not news to the Lions. A 6’-3”, 230-pounder, Nicholas was selected one round after Quincy Black by the Atlanta Falcons. Like Black, Nicholas has been the mostly-starter on the strong side for the past two seasons. Nicholas was PFF’s 15th-best 4-3 outside linebacker in 2010, turning in a +6.9 overall grade. He was excellent against the pass, receiving a +1.2 pass rush mark, and NFL-best +5.1 coverage grade!

His run-stopping grades were merely average, +1.1 (avg. +1.4). However, he missed only 4 tackles all season, one per every 9.6 made; that rate was 5th-best in the NFL. Nicholas, like Black, would step in and start—presumably, for a long time to come. His outstanding coverage skills, and ability to rush, are exactly what the Lions need. The Atlanta-Journal Constitution has linked Nicholas to Detroit several times this offseason, so there’s some fire underneath the smoke I’m blowing here.

Another linebacker I’ve always wished were in Honolulu Blue is Bears free agent Pisa Tinoisamoa. Physically, he was undersized for Lions’ DC Kurt Schottenheimer’s tastes when he came out in 2003. I thought he was the perfect fit for the Lions’ Tampa 2 when his rookie contract was set to expire, but the Rams re-signed him. Finally, he came free, but it was the Lions’ first year under Schwartz and optimistically listed at 6’-1”, 230, he just didn’t fit the profile. Not to mention, he’d struggled with injuries . . .

. . . anyway, turns out I was right about that whole Tampa 2 thing; the Bears snagged him and he’s been very productive (when healthy). Graded at +5.8 overall, +1 in pass rush, and +4.1 against the run, Tinoisamoa plays more physically than you’d expect from a guy of his stature. Unfortunately, his –1.1 coverage grade is above the NFL average(-2.2), but not by as much as you’d hope from a guy of his stature. I suspect the Bears will let him test the waters--and if the Lions can't get anybody else, he’d still be a solid upgrade over Julian Peterson’s recent play.

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Mayhew/Schwartz approach to filling holes has been to either pick up stopgaps or invest in in a long-term solution. The Lions invested in Andre Levy, and I don’t think they’ll kick him outside just because—so a retread thumper like Kirk Morrison doesn’t fit the pattern. No, if they bring in a new middle linebacker, it’ll be someone who’ll play middle linebacker for the next three or four years. While researching, I’ve developed a strong feeling that only Levy and Tulloch—experienced playcallers in the Schwartzingham defense--are legitimate options in the middle for 2011.

However, just as this piece was going to press, Mike O’Hara reported for Fox Sports Detroit that the Lions prefer Justin Durant to Stephen Tulloch. Durant’s “speed and versatility” push him up past Tully in the Lions’ scouting grades. Apparently, they see Durant as a guy who can play inside or outside. Frankly, by these numbers, Durant has no business playing outside! The Lions’ defensive scheme funnels runners inside, and the pass rush from the defensive line will force QBs to hit a lot of hot routes and option passes. This puts extreme pressure on the OLBs to cover slot WRs, TEs, and RBs wheeling out of the flat. If the Lions get Durant, I see him playing inside . . . then again, I’m sure the Lions know their system and their needs better than I do—and they actually watched the tape themselves.

Ultimately, the Lions have a lot of options here. They could easily get Tulloch and Bulluck, or Anderson and Nicholas, or Black and Nicholas, or any number of combinations; few of these players will be bank-breakers. The most important thing to remember, though, is that Levy is going to take a big step forward. He missed almost all of training camp, and all of the preseason, due to injuries—and last year was his first year starting in the middle. Whether he stays inside or moves to the outside, DeAndre Levy is going to make an impact just by having his first full offseason in the defense. With a couple of judicious pickups, the Lions could have not only the best front four, but the best front seven in the NFL.

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Old Mother Hubbard: Shopping For Linebackers Pt. I

The Lions’ linebacker shopping is a tricky thing. What the Lions, in theory, need, is an outside linebacker—but the pool at inside linebacker is deeper, and starting MLB Deandre Levy has the tools to play outside. In Part I, I’ll assume the Lions kick Levy outside, and bring in a starting middle ‘backer.

One of the things I noticed about the ILB grades is that they deviate more wildly from popular reputation than other position groups. We fans know we can’t really evaluate secondary play because TV cameras don’t show it well—and analysts can only guess at coverage assignments. Let’s face it, the only reason most fans know Nnamdi Asomugha is good is because so many analysts have said so. Even if we flip to a Raiders game and watch it start to finish, we’ll be unlikely to see what makes him better than most other corners.

However, I’m coming to believe that linebacker play is just as poorly understood. Half of linebacker play is coverage, after all, and LB coverage assignments are even more ineffable than those of safeties or cornerbacks. Beyond that, though, run gap fits are still a matter of observation and guesswork, and without “film study” we’re not looking that closely at LB play anyway. At full speed, all we notice are big stops, broken tackles, and massive whiffs—and not all of them, either. I had to go frame-by-frame to notice this terrible Ernie Sims arm tackle in the hole. The result? We know big names much better than we know who actually had good seasons.

Takeo Spikes is the highest-graded free-agent-to-be, and by all accounts he had a terrific year last year. Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says the Niners re-signing Spikes should be a “no-brainer,” but last year’s third-rounder, NaVorro Bowman, played well in injury relief (+3.7 overall on 217 snaps). If the 49ers are comfortable with Bowman stepping into the starting role, they could let the 34-year-old Spikes explore the market.

Just how good was Spikes last year? With a +24 overall rating, he was the seventh-best graded linebacker in the NFL. For comparison, his ILB partner Patrick Willis turned in a +31, second-best in the NFL. The 6’-2”, 242-pound Spikes was very solid in coverage, +5.9, and incredible against the run; his +18.2 grade was ranked 3rd overall, surpassing even Willis! He was only called for one penalty, but it was declined or offset. The only grade that isn’t outstandingly positive is his –0.5 pass rush mark; he was the only PFF Top Ten linebacker whose pass rush grade was below 0.

As a pure run-stopper, Spikes was nearly the ideal: he had 92 tackles and 10 assists,  and was only credited with two missed tackles. Counting assists as a half-solo, his ratio of tackles-to-missed-tackles was second-best in the NFL. Sounds like exactly the kind of run-stopper the Lions have been looking for since Stephen Boyd, right? Well . . . maybe not.

I compared the ratio of solo tackles to “stops,” solo tackles that result in offensive failure [I can’t find PFF’s definition of Stops, but here’s Football Outsiders’]. Of Spikes’ 92 solo tackles, only 48 actually prevented offensive success. Of Deandre Levy’s 61 solo tackles, 34 were stops, so their ratios of solo tackles-to-stops are quite similar (ranked 26th and 33rd of 5o, respectively). When we add in assists and missed tackles, to get an every-chance-you-had-to-make-a-tackle-to-stops rate, the gap returns, but not as widely: Spikes had a 12th-best possible-tackle-to-stops rate of 1.8, while Levy’s  was a 37th-best 2.3.

Spikes was playing ILB in a 3-4, and though he’s played in many different alignments and positions throughout his career, that’s probably where he’s best suited. He had the benefit of playing next to Patrick Willis, a benefit he won’t have here. He was fantastic in a narrow window, even in coverage (he had 3 picks and 5 PDs on only 48 targets), but the Lions would expect Spikes to cover a lot of ground laterally. Moreover, at 34, he’d be a short-term player at most, at worst a one-year rental. If Spikes leaves, I don’t expect him to come here.

The most obvious free-agent candidate is the Titans' Stephen Tulloch. Graded the 15th-best ILB by PFF, the 5’-11”, 240-pound Tulloch was drafted back in 2006 by Schwartz’s Titans. Last year, the former fourth-rounder’s fifth season, was his first as a wire-to-wire starter—though he started 13 and 12 games in his fourth and third year, respectively. Incredibly, Tully played 1,222 snaps—the most of any ILB in the NFL, by a long shot. His overall grade of +13.6 was well earned, then, as were his run-stopping grade of +10.5 and +8.3. Like Spikes, though, his pass rush skills left a lot to be desired. Tulloch’s –1.3 rush grade slotted him 41st out of 51 qualifying ILBs.

Still, Tulloch’s run-stoppingness cannot be denied. Tully had a solo, assist, or missed tackle once every 7.1 snaps he played—that rate was sixth-best in the NFL. I don’t have run plays face vs. passing plays faced, so that stat may not be gospel—but he certainly got to the ball carrier an awful lot. His tackles-to-missed-tackles rate was 16.1, 16th-best in the NFL. His 76 total stops were the most in the NFL—though when dividing his aggregate solos, assists, and missed tackles by stops, that total isn’t quite as impressive (2.0 possible-tackles-to-stops rate, ranked 25th).

In coverage, Tulloch held up extremely well, despite being picked on constantly; he was thrown at once every 12.9 snaps, third-most in the NFL! Only Pittsburgh’s Lawrence Timmons and New England’s Gary Guyton were thrown at more often (each once every 12.8 snaps). Of course, since his snap total topped the league, his targets do, too, with a whopping 95. Despite this shelling, Tulloch did okay, allowing 72.6% of those TA to be caught, and holding his assignments to 7.0 YpC. He stopped the bleeding very quickly, allowing a fifth-best 4.0 YAC per catch. He also had five passes defensed and an interception—but with 95 targets, those are actually low numbers, 34th-worst PD-or-INT-per-target rate in the NFL. His passer rating allowed was a middle-of-the-pack 89.9.

Tulloch got to the ballcarrier as often as almost anyone, and was picked on in coverage almost as much as anyone. He had the heaviest snap workload in the NFL, and he was involved in those snaps at very high rates. It’d be fair to say that no one ILB did more for his defense than Stephen Tulloch in 2010—yet, the Titans have already prepared for Tulloch’s departure, drafting Florida ILB Colin McCarthy. They fear Tulloch will “cost too much to keep,” despite his obvious value. Whether it’s because Jim Schwartz will be waiting at midnight with a bottle of vino, or because there’ll be a bidding war the Lions will bow out of, Tulloch won’t come cheaply.

Kevin Burnett, like Spikes, played ILB in a 3-4 last year. However, he and his Chargers partner, Stephen Cooper, are both free-agents to be. From what I can gather, the Chargers will try to bring back Burnett and pair him with backup ILB Brandon Siler and/or U of M 2nd-round draftee Jonas Mouton. Burnett turned in much better PFF grades than Cooper in 2010: +11.3 overall, an astounding +6.1 when rushing the passer, and +6.5 in run stopping. His –1.3 in pass coverage isn’t great, of course, but the 6’-3”, 240-pound Burnett finally emerged as a quality player.

Cooper, for what it’s worth, is practically the opposite: +7.8 in coverage, but –0.8 in pass rush, and –4.7 in run stopping. His +3.3 overall is okay, but the 32-year-old Cooper is not a tantalizing possible solution to the Lions’ run-stopping woes, like Burnett. Unfortunately, while Burnett might be good enough to make the switch from 3-4 ILB to 4-3 MLB, Cooper isn’t, and the Chargers will likely pick the 28-year-old Burnett.

The player that isn’t getting much publicity is the Jaguars’ Kirk Morrison, who the Jaguars were hoping to be able to replace in the draft, but couldn’t. He’s been given the “go ahead and shop yourself but if it won’t cost too much we’ll take you back” speech from the Jags’ brass, mostly due to his flagging coverage. But, while his well-below-average –2.1 coverage grade (and second-worst in the league 137.6 passer rating allowed) looks bad, Morrison was one of the surest tacklers alive in 2010.

With one missed tackle to 69 solos and 9 assists, Morrison had the best missed tackle ratio of any inside linebacker in the NFL. His range may not be great—his ratio of snaps to solo, assisted, and missed tackles was 9.6, below average and ranked 31st—but his ratio of solo, assisted, and missed tackles to stops was 1.7, essentially tied for third-best in the NFL. Ultimately, Kirk Morrison plays the 4-3 run stopper as well as anyone—and if the Lions are okay with his coverage limitations, he could be an excellent value pickup.

Stewart Bradley and Barrett Ruud I’ve included more to pop their bubbles than anything else. Bradley had a rough go of it in 2010 after a breakout junior year, turning in a -4.5 overall grade. He was trying to recover from an offseason ACL tear, and later trying to shake off a horrific in-game concussion. Worse yet, Bradley’s injury replacement, Jamar Chaney, performed brilliantly in relief—meaning the Eagles would like to bring Bradley back, but as an outside linebacker. I’ve liked Bradley, but he’s got a bunch of issues and won’t likely be available.

Ruud, a guy I really hoped the Lions would draft back in 2005 (he went one pick before we selected Shaun Cody), has had an up-and-down ride with the Bucs. Last season, Ruud was the 49th-best (a.k.a. second-worst) PFF-graded ILB, with a –13.3 overall mark. In a year where the average was +8.3, that’s really poor. He might be touted as a value option—but if his 2010 performance was any indication, he’s a significant downgrade from DeAndre Levy; I don’t see him as an option at all.

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Free Agency: Riverboat Gambling

The NHL free agency period opened up right before the holiday weekend, and a slew of teams eager to spend a surplus of cap money pushed prices through the roof. The Red Wings made a couple of decent Plan B and Plan C signings, along with bringing back every current Wing they really wanted back—but fan hopes of blowing through a $16M war chest and landing an impact defensemen, impact forward, and veteran goalie in the opening 48 hours were dashed. Per Nick Cotsonika, the Red Wings’ attempt to see how the market breaks didn’t break their way; they were forced to bring in players they didn’t like because their targets went elsewhere.

The zaniness surrounding the upcoming NFL free agency period will be an order of magnitude worse. First, the salary cap will likely be higher—and the salary floor will be definitely be much higher. It’s likely that the cap will be less “artificial” and more tied to actual cash outlay. Penny-pinching teams (like the Bucs) will have to go out and burn money just to get up to the minimum, pushing the market price for all free agents through the roof.

The question is, are the Lions going to be spenders, or savers? Martin Mayhew famously will not pay more than he thinks a player is worth—and yet he spent lavishly to secure the services of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson. Are there any players who’ll get the Lions to open up the purse strings, or will they be nickel-and-diming it in the second week?

I can't claim to know the thought processes of Mayhew and company, so I’ll just talk it out. First, we’re past the point of stopgaps. The Lions won’t be going out and getting an Anthony Henry or a Grady Jackson on the cheap—hoping an over-the-hill veteran will be able to step in and start. So, don’t expect any of the “need” spots, like cornerback or linebacker, to be filled with penny-ante guys (who’ll likely be paid handsomely in this market anyway). In the Free Agent Cornerback OMH, I said I thought Lions would more likely target a Chris Carr, an Antonio Cromartie—or even both—before laying out the massive cash required for a Nnamdi Asomugha. 

Thinking about it in terms of market forces, though, Chris Carr could make double what he’s actually worth. If you’re concerned about getting value for your money, would you rather back up the Brinks truck for one of the best players on the planet, or pay 70% of that king’s ransom for a B+ starter you’re particularly fond of? It’s an open question. As the negotiations go down to the wire, and both sides talking about when, not if, an agreement is made, the Lions will have to know their targets and pursue them aggressively from the jump—if a third-tier guy is your Plan A, be on his doorstep at midnight with a bucket of money. Get the guy you want, whether that’s Nnamdi or Carr or Cromartie or Eric Wright or Dre Bly. Whoever it is, the Lions can’t be holding their nose as they offer contracts.

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Old Mother Hubbard: Wrap-Up, Analysis, Needs List

Yesterday, I posted the final post-draft “awesomeness” heat map of the Lions’ current depth chart. I didn’t really analyze it, per se, just provided a list of clarifying/qualifying bullet points. The coolest thing about data visualization is that it simply is, and anyone can understand at a glance what’s going on. That said, I slaved over making the thing, so you folks are probably curious about what caught my eye in the process.

The offensive line needs help. Clearly, the center and right guard were well below average last season; Stephen Peterman in particular played poorly (no doubt due to myriad injuries, as he was much much better in 2009). With the exception of right tackle, there isn’t a quality backup anywhere along the line. The left side of the line is actually quite good, though; if Peterman and Raiola return to their usual standard of play, the starting five should be one of the better lines in the game. If not—or if the injury bug bites—the Lions’ line could be in big, big trouble. I also have big concerns for 2012 and beyond; Hilliard, Fox, and/or Culbreath need to stake their claims on future starting roles.

Calvin Johnson is so good. Megatron was the Lions’ best player in 2010, and it wasn’t close. He was the third-best graded WR in the NFL, and two-and-a-half standard deviations from the mean! I think Lions fans forget how good he is, because they know how good he can be. We keep waiting for him to haul in 140 catches for 2,400 yards and 30 touchdowns—and if anyone ever could do that, it’s him—but maybe we should stop a minute to appreciate 77 catches for 1,120 yards and 12 touchdowns, especially given the quarterback situation.

Non-Megatron receivers need to step up. It’s no secret that Bryant Johnson and Derrick Williams simply haven’t produced. Johnson has struggled mightily to catch the ball, and Williams, when used, isn’t getting open. Nate Burleson is dangerous with the ball in his hands, but isn’t a threat to stretch the field. If Titus Young can make an immediate impact, Johnson and Burleson should have much more room to operate. I’m counting the tight ends here, too; Tony Scheffler had a mysterious stretch of poor form after an electrifying first few games, and Brandon Pettigrew dropped an awful lot of balls he got his hands on (and got called for ten penalties!). Both of them have the ability to be top ten receiving TEs—if either of them can play like it, it’ll be a huge boost to the offense.

The defensive line is strong and deep, but wasn’t invincible last season. Ndamukong Suh likely won’t improve his sack total from last year—in fact, I’d expect a regression—but his overall effectiveness should be better than we see here. Corey Williams played like a man possessed, but his horrific penalty total (15 called, 2 declined/offset) put a huge damper on his final grade. Nobody had more penalties called, or assessed, than Williams. Nobody in the NFL, at any position. That’s not just aggression leading to the occasional jump—that’s a chronic problem that extends drives, in a defense built to stop them.

The much-maligned back seven is just below average. As much as observers like to pretend the Lions’ back seven consists of Louis Delmas and six tackling dummies, none of the presumed starters were more than a standard deviation below NFL average. Amari Spievey actually turned in the best grade of the back seven, and Louis Delmas was playing through a severe groin injury. The Lions added Erik Coleman to the safety corps, and should add a corner and/or linebacker in free agency. If they can get a little better in a couple of spots, the excellent defensive line will be backed by a perfectly average ‘backer corps and secondary.

That said, the back seven dominates the remaining shopping list:

• An impact two-way defensive end to rotate soon, and develop for 2012 [Upon further review, Lawrence Jackson fits this bill].
• A credible backup middle linebacker.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB ready to start right away.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB to rotate soon, and develop for 2012 [I'm giving Doug Hogue the benefit of the doubt here].
• An athletic cover corner, ready to take over one side in 2012.
• If Chris Houston leaves, a complete two-way corner, ready to start right away.
• A left tackle who can be groomed to replace Jeff Backus [I like Culbreath, and have hope for Jason Fox, but calling this need "filled" is too much of a stretch].
• A center who will be ready to rotate at guard soon, and compete at center for 2012.
• A field-stretching #2 WR.
• A power back to complement Jahvid Best.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,team needs,nfl draft,nfl free agency

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Old Mother Hubbard: 2011 Post-Draft Heat Map

Without further ado, your 2011 Detroit Lions, as they exist post-draft, as graded by Pro Football Focus:

click for big

IMPORTANT INFORMATION:

• All of the above colors represent that player's Pro Football Focus "overall" grade for 2011.
• The grades have been banded into tiers, one half of one standard deviation from the mean for each position. Green is good, Red is bad, Gray indicates insufficient 2010 snaps, a rookie, or a hazy depth chart.
• The main (inside) color is the presumed starter for 2011. The exterior ring is the presumed backup.
• As a reminder, PFF's overall grade weighs penalties strongly; Corey Williams would be several tiers higher if not for his 13 penalties. PFF’s grade also tends to value consistency over sporadic big plays.
• Brandon Pettigrew is the “starting” TE; Tony Scheffler the #2.
• Nate Burleson is the #1 X receiver and #1 Y receiver; I anticipate he will be the X in 2-WR sets and Y in 3-WR sets.
• Titus Young is the #2 X receiver and #2 Z receiver; I anticipate he will be the X in 3-WR sets.
• Jahvid Best is the #1 RB; Mikel LeShoure the #2.
• Quarterback data is not normalized, so I have not included it.
• Corey Williams is the starting Nose Tackle (1-technique); Sammie Hill the #2.
• Ndamukong Suh is the starting Over Tackle (3-technique); Nick Fairley the #2.
• KVB and Lo-Jack are the #1 and #2 LDEs, respectively.
• Cliff Avril and Willie Young are the #1 and #2 RDEs, respectively.
• Bobby Carpenter and Ashlee Palmer are the starting RLB and LLB, respectively.
• Chris Houston is CB1, Nate Vasher CB2, and Alphonso Smith NCB.
• Amari Spievey is the LS, and Louis Delmas the RS.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl offseason,team needs

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Outside Linebackers

If you're joining our roster review already in progress, here are the Old Mother Hubbard breakdowns for:

• the Defensive Tackles
• the Defensive Ends
• the Inside Linebackers

Before we delve into the next three positions, let me take a little time to address an email I received about the DE breakdown. Scott D. wrote:

You mentioned while you were watching the Jets game live, that you, in essence, personally discounted the PFF rankings for how KVB played in that particular game because of what ends up being, in your own terms, the "eyeball factor". Yet in every other aspect of the OMH series thus far, you're putting a great deal of credit in the PFF rankings.

It’s important to understand what the PFF data is, and what it isn’t. The PFF player grades are what I’ve been showing on the radar charts. They’re the PFF staff’s opinion on how well a player carries out his assignment. Each player is graded on every snap they play, and the final grades consist of those per-play grades aggregated and normalized. Every-down consistency scores much better than occasional excellence, and penalties weigh heavily on the final grade. On the whole, they present a good benchmark for overall performance, relative to an average NFL starter.

PFF also takes the time to go back and tally sacks, tackles, QB pressures, QB hits, missed tackles, and other stats. These aren’t subjective performance grades, they’re straight tallies of actual results—and they’re far more accurate than “offical” tackle and sack numbers, which are done on the fly, in real time, by team scorers with varying personal standards.

The KVB “eyeball test” you’re talking about?  Here’s what I said:

I had really good seats to the Jets game, and seeing KVB in action live was something else. He never missed an opportunity—before, during, or after the snap—to remind the Jets that he was there. That he was fighting. That they needed to keep their head on a swivel. That they needed to watch their ass. Vanden Bosch and the Lions out-Jetted the Jets on that day, mostly thanks to KVB and his leadership. PFF graded him at a –2.1 on the day, but I know he had a positive impact.

I was insinuating that KVB was playing . . . well, not dirty, but . . . okay, kinda dirty. He played to, and through, and also a little bit after the whistle. Not trying to injure—just not letting up, getting in a little extra on every play. He was very physical, very intense, and set the tone for a Lions defense that came to kick the butt-kickers’ butts. That doesn’t mean KVB was unblockable off the edge, or impossible to run on, or anything like that. In the PFF grader’s opinion, KVB executed his play assignments at a below-average level. But, I know his leadership made the whole defense better on that day.

Again: the news is not good. The dark gray line is Kamerion Wimbley, the top-graded 4-3 OLB. The thick black line is the NFL average. The goldish line is Scott Shanle, the backmarker. This means the Saints had both the worst ILB and the worst OLB . . .

Unfortunately, things aren’t so hot for the Lions, either. Julian Peterson was the only Lions OLB to meet PFF’s 25% snap-count threshold; he was also the Lions’ worst-graded OLB. He, like all the Lions OLBs, was right at the NFL average for pass rush, but strongly negative in coverage (-6.6). All that is moot, however, because Peterson was released.

Bobby Carpenter was a deft mid-October signing by the Lions. Apparently the Lions had been high on him for a while; Tom Kowalski reported that Martin Mayhew asked for Carpenter in the Roy Williams trade, Mayhew’s first roster move as Lions GM. The Cowboys ultimately swapped their disappointing first-rounder for the Rams’, OT Alex Barron. The 6’-2”, 245-pound Carpenter was cut by the Rams during training camp, picked up by Miami, and then cut midseason after he screwed up badly on special teams.

In Killer's article on Carpenter's signing, he points out that Carpenter is solid against the run, and in dropping back to cover; the PFF grades partially back that up. Carpenter was right at NFL averages for pass rush, but a bit above average in coverage. In fact, Carpenter’s coverage grade was the best single grade of any returning Lions OLB. Unfortunately, Carpenter was about as far below average against the run as he was above average in coverage, so his final grade is just a smidge below average. Keep in mind, though, that’s for 4-3 OLB who played in at least 25% of their teams’ snaps (which Carpenter did not).

Bottom Line: In limited reps, Carpenter showed he can be a creditable player for the Lions. He’ll never be the pass rusher the Lions want from the OLB spot—but with a full offseason in the system he should be able to pull his weight out there.

Ashlee Palmer was the Typhoid Mary of “One Man’s Trash Syndrome,” a good young player let go because another team was switching schemes. Palmer, 6’-1”, 236 pounds, was a UDFA rookie for the Bills in 2009. He made an impact as a special teams standout, and looked great in backup duty. But, out with the old—Dick Jauron’s 4-3—and in with the new—Jim Haslett’s 3-4—and the Lions got a great value pickup.

Palmer got 240 snaps at outside linebacker, roughly split between the right and left. He also had about a hundred snaps in the middle, so he never had a chance to get comfortable anywhere.  He graded out more or less across-the-board average for the first five weeks, then had a really rough streak in weeks 6, 8, 9, and 11. That’s alarming, since he got many of his snaps in that stretch. He finished with another long streak of averageness in lighter action, though, and put an exclamation point on the season with a +3.1 day against Miami where he played 50% of snaps.

On the whole, Palmer was an average rusher, slightly above average in coverage, and below average against the run. He was slightly less effective in coverage than Carpenter, and a full tick worse in run support.

Bottom Line: Palmer is a young, tough, versatile player forced to play all three LB positions as a 2nd-year UDFA, and produced at a slightly-below-average level. He’ll be a valuable rotation player, and possibly an okay starter with a full offseason at OLB. Still, he doesn’t have impact tools or impact upside.

What a wild ride it’s been for the Pain Train. Zack Follett, member of the Lions Fan Favorite Hall of Fame Class of 2009, entered the season as a starting outside linebacker. After making headlines over the offseason with his Tweeting and vlogging, Follett saw in about 150 snaps at the left linebacker spot, before a scary helmet-to-helmet hit put him out for the season.

Follett was sort of the yang to Ashlee Palmer’s yin. Standing at a nearly identical 6’-2”, 236, Follett was graded slightly below Palmer in pass rush (!), significantly below Palmer in coverage, but significantly above in run support. Follett, to my eyes, is more naturally athletic and has a higher upside, but appeared to be “swimming” out there; thinking instead of reacting. Follett was often a half-step behind, a half-instant too slow in making plays, because he didn’t recognize the need to act quickly enough. However, the recognition did come and the ability is there.

It’s worth pointing out that Follett got heavy reps against the Lions’ stiffest competition, in the front half of the season. Further, defenses were picking on Follett’s coverage more: opponents threw at Follett every 16.45 snaps, as opposed to 21.8 for Palmer.

As a sidebar, they threw at Landon Johnson every 11.4 snaps, which would have been the third-most-frequent in the NFL if Johnson had played more snaps at OLB.

Bottom Line: Zack Follett is still a very young player who showed a lot more pass rush ability at Cal than he’s shown so far in the NFL. With another full offseason to get the defense down pat, he should be able to do less thinking and more reacting. If he’s medically okay to play, he deserves to be in the mix with Palmer and Carpenter, especially being stronger against the run than either.

Right now, the Lions have three very good rotational players who have an interesting mix of youth, experience, and upside. They each bring a slightly different approach to the game, and each have a slightly different skill set. However, my understanding of the Lions defense was that they wanted two (in-his-prime) Julian Petersons at OLB; two big, fast pass rushers who are athletic enough to not be a liability in coverage. Unless Follett puts it together, they don’t have anyone who can rush the passer from the OLB spot.

An interesting observation: note that the best overall 4-3 OLB, Kam Wimbley, was only graded at +23.7, and he had a sizable lead over Nos. 2 & 3: +17.7, and +14.1, respectively. Since the top DT and DE each graded at about +45 , and the top ILB was about +35, this suggests that 4-3 OLBs just don’t play a big of a role in the success of the defense. As long as they aren’t total liabilities against the pass, and don’t miss a slew of tackles, you can get away with a pedestrian OLB . . . or two. Perhaps a major investment at OLB is unwise. Indeed, Mayhew said he’s perfectly comfortable with Palmer and Carpenter as starters in 2011.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions, undeniably, lack impact players at OLB. The 2010 performances of Carpenter, Palmer, and Follett suggest the Lions could “get away with” drafting a developmental OLB, letting all four compete for snaps at LB, and featuring all four in special teams units. However, if the Lions are looking for impact pass rushers in these spots going forward, they’ll need to draft one and acquire another.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,team needs,2011 offseason,2011 free agency,2011 nfl draft,julian peterson,zack follett,ashlee palmer,bobby carpenter

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Inside Linebackers

The news is not good. The thick black line indicates the NFL average. The bright yellow line indicates the best-PFF-graded ILB in the NFL, Lawrence Timmons. The bronze-ish line shows the worst-PFF-graded ILB in the NFL, Jonathan Vilma. That every single one of the Lions’ ILB are between the black line and bronze line is not good. Let’s start with the starter, DeAndre Levy.

DeAndre had an inauspicious start to the season: first a back injury sidelined Levy for much of training camp, then a groin injury sidelined him for most of the preseason, then an ankle injury sidelined him until Halloween. Incredibly, Levy still logged 749 snaps, just under the league average for an inside linebacker. While he was out there, he was inconsistent, but slightly positive. He had strong games against Buffalo, Green Bay, and Miami, and weak ones against New England and Miami. His worst grade of the season, though, was his only pre-bye appearance: Week 3, at Minnesota (-2.7).

This was both his first game back from the groin, and when he suffered the ankle injury—so I’m willing to give him a pass for that game, and for much of the season. But Levy’s shortcomings in run support are really holding his grade back. PFF charts tackles and assists, as well as missed tackles—their tackle data is flatly much better than the “official” tackles passed out by team scorers. I created my own little metric by adding PFF tackles to PFF assists, and dividing by PFF missed tackles. Levy was tied (with Stewart Bradley) for last in the NFL; both tallied just 4.9 total tackles for each one they missed. The league average? 12.83.

Of course, Levy was a third-round pick in 2009, an outside linebacker with a ton of upside. That upside lay in his hitting, his athleticism, and his theoretical ability to cover (though he was not an outstanding coverage OLB in college). PFF tracks opponent passer rating against each defender, and Levy was 13th-best in the NFL with this, at 86.1 (avg 98.0). He was also 15th-best in individual YpC against with 8.9 (avg 10.0). The longest reception Levy allowed was just 20 yards long, tied for fourth-best in the NFL (avg. 32.7). His actual coverage grade was slightly below average, indicating inconsistency. Still, the metrics show that he wasn’t thrown at very often, and when he was not much damage was done.

This training camp was Levy’s first as a starter, and first as a pure middle linebacker. It was vitally important that he go through camp and learn his assignments cold. He couldn’t. It was crucial that he get a lot of snaps in preseason, to get his timing down. He didn’t. He didn’t see regular action until Week 8—and when he did, he almost never took a breather. Per PFF, he missed only two defensive snaps from Week 8 on; an incredible workload. By my count, he’d have played the second-most snaps in the NFL if he were healthy all season long.

Bottom Line: Levy is exactly where Cliff Avril was at this point last year: third-round pick from a Big Ten school, battling injuries and switching positions. Levy will have to take an Avrilesque step forward in 2011 to prove he’s a long-term solution to the ILB problem—but even if we get more of the same, he’s not a liability on this defense.

No other ILBs got the requisite 25% of snaps, but Landon Johnson came close. Average in pass rush, a little below average in coverage, and well below average in run support, this career OLB/special teams ace was a step down from Levy, but not as big of one as you’d expect. He was better than awful, but still well below average.

Bottom Line: Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent, and has no future playing ILB for the Lions. If he’s brought back, it will be as a special teamer—and there’ll be lots of competition there.

Several other players got snaps for the Lions at ILB; Spencer Havner and Ashlee Palmer foremost amongst them. But, I’ll either grade those players as OLBs, or not at all. For 2011 and the forseeable future, DeAndre Levy is the only credible inside linebacker the Lions have.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions are rolling with DeAndre Levy at starter, who’s proven he can play at at least a decent level. He has flashed the potential to get much better, though, and the Lions will hope he does. The Lions could use a credible veteran backup here, in lieu of repurposing OLBs or special teams specialists.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,deandre levy,team needs,nfl draft,nfl free agency

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Defensive Ends

The Old Mother Hubbarding of the DTs got a bit of attention; I was even linked by ProFootballTalk. I’ve been a dedicated PFT reader for, like, ever, and secretly I’m over the moon about that—but I’ve decided to act like I’ve been there before.  So.

The Pro Football Focus data I’m using is widely misunderstood, so let me explain a couple of key points. First, the PFF data doesn’t measure pure talent. The final grade doesn’t mean that one player is “better” than another, just that they turned in a more effective performance, on a down-by-down basis. Second, PFF weighs penalties in the final grade—so Sammie Hill, who didn’t commit a penalty, graded out higher than Corey Williams, who was more effective, but flagged a ridiculous number of times.

Second, it’s my observation that PFF’s system rewards consistency. A player that repeatedly makes a positive impact (and is rarely a liability) will have a much higher final grade than a player who “swings for the fences,” makes a few spectacular plays, and is otherwise often ineffective . . . even if those few spectacular plays change the outcome of the game. Watching at home on TV, at full speed, we tend not to notice line play unless the results are spectacular—so a player who is always a little more effective than you think (like Sammie Hill) is going to grade out surprisingly well. Meanwhile, the home run hitters (like Ndamukong Suh) are going to grade out surprisingly poorly, since every time you notice them, they’re doing something awesome.

Sometimes, this leads to counterintuitive results. However, a lot of what’s really happening on the field is counterintuitive from a fan perspective. I’ve said before that watching film is the “red pill of fandom;” if you start doing it you learn the truth about what’s happening on the field . . . and you realize just how wrong most of the national football groupthink is. PFF is a group of dedicated football fanatics (like you and I) who spend outrageous amounts of time popping red pills like candy. If you and were committed enough do to what they do, we’d likely get the results they’re getting; that’s why I’m using their data. So, with all that in mind . . . to Wonderland.

Just as before, I’ve included the top-graded 4-3 DE, the Eagles’ Trent Cole, and the bottom-graded 4-3 DE, Kentwan Balmer of the Seahawks. The thick black line represents the average for 4-3 DEs who saw at least 25% of their team’s available snaps.

Just a week ago, I wrote that Cliff Avril was one of the two Lions who had the most to prove in 2010; boy, did he ever prove it. Avril was massively improved over 2009, and finished as PFF’s 11th-best graded 4-3 DT. He was 7th-best in the pure pass rush grading, and 4th-best in coverage. His athleticism, and linebacker pedigree, shows through in those grades. The question mark with Avril is his ability to anchor against the run; he grades out below-average there, but was far from a liability.

Avril was the Lions’ best defensive end, by a long shot, and a true difference-maker for the defense. He saw an average of number of snaps, fewer than most of the other top-ten-type—but that was due to injury, not lack of use. If he was healthy, he was in there. By my calculations, Avril was behind only Ray Edwards and Dwight Freeney in pressures-per-snap—he had a truly outstanding year applying heat to the quarterback. When Kyle Vanden Bosch was hurt, Avril not only didn’t wilt under the pressure, he took the reigns and ran with them, handing in better grades as the season went on. Food for thought: he turns 25 next month.

Interestingly, Avril only had two QB hits all season, far fewer than most with his kind of sack and pressure numbers. My guess is that he’s relying on pure speed to get around right tackles—then either getting there and flushing/sacking the QB, or not. I wonder if pass rushers the QB can see coming don’t get as many hits . . . an interesting project for another time.

Bottom Line: Cliff Avril was pigeonholed by most as a 3-4 ROLB, and I’m certain he could shine in that role. But he’s developed into the fast, athletic 4-3 rush end Rod Marinelli thought he could be. Avril will never be a 270-plus-pound, two-way monster—but he’s already an impact defender, top-flite pass rusher, and a huge part of this defense going forward. Signing this RFA to a long-term deal must be a top priority.

The centerpiece of the Lions’ free-agent additions, Kyle Vanden Bosch had a lot to prove, too: namely, that he could still get to the quarterback like he used to. In his first game, it seemed like he answered those questions in style; I said it was “one of the most amazing individual performances I’ve seen.” KVB poured his heart and soul out into that game, trying to will the Lions to victory. He was sideline-to-sideline, or as much so as a defensive end can be.  He put up a truly dominant PFF grade that week, too: a +6.1.

Unfortunately, KVB was inconsistent the rest of the season. He turned in very solid games against the Giants and Redskins, but was negatively, or neutrally, graded in every other game. He was graded well below-average in pass rush; negative in five of eleven games. He was the 46th-best pass rusher out of 65, and had less than half the pressures Avril did—yet, KVB had five sacks and ten quarterback hits in just eleven games. His sack-and-hit per-snap rate was 25th-best in the NFL. This suggests that he was “saving it up” for critical moments; generally just below average except for several plays a game.

However, all of this does an injustice to KVB’s contribution. He was the bell cow for the defensive line, the tone-setter; he pushed every single Lion on the line to practice at full speed, to workout like you practice, to push, to go to the limit and then realize it’s not really the limit and keep going. Avril, Suh, Hill, all the young linemen repeatedly pointed to KVB’s leadership as a major factor in their progression; he was a catalyst, and without him I doubt the others take the strides they did.

I had really good seats to the Jets game, and seeing KVB in action live was something else. He never missed an opportunity—before, during, or after the snap—to remind the Jets that he was there. That he was fighting. That they needed to keep their head on a swivel. That they needed to watch their ass. Vanden Bosch and the Lions out-Jetted the Jets on that day, mostly thanks to KVB and his leadership. PFF graded him at a –2.1 on the day, but I know he had a positive impact.

Bottom Line: Kyle Vanden Bosch is the ultimate leader, a consummate professional—and as a player, the yang to Cliff Avril’s yin. Had he stayed healthy, he would have had seven sacks and fifteen QB hits, more than acceptable standalone production, besides the undeniable halo effect. Unfortunately, he’s 32, and recovering from a major neck injury. The Lions need to find a starting, impact, two-way end to replace him by the 2012 season.

The most surprising line in the chart above is the red one, the one representing Lawrence Jackson. Jackson was the 25th overall pick in 2008, a four-year starter at USC. Lo-Jack is a 6’-4”, 270-pound two-way defensive end, the prototype end for this defense. He was the victim—and the Lions, again, the beneficiary—of “One Man’s Trash” syndrome. The Seahawks let a first-round pick two years into his career go in exchange for a sixth rounder, because he no longer fit their system. To replace Lo-Jack, the Seahawks traded their own sixth-rounder to the 49ers for . . . Kentwan Balmer, picked just a few spots after Jackson in the 2008 draft. Balmer, for the Seahawks this year, was the worst-graded DE in football (see chart).

Jonah Keri just wrote a whole book on how the Tampa Bay Rays went to the world series by making these kind of deals, over and over again. By trading one commodity for another, similar commodity, and getting a 2% edge, over time it really adds up—and at some point, you’ll get a few surprise deals where the edge is way more than 2%. In this case, the Seahawks essentially traded Lo-Jack for Kentwan Balmer. The difference, as you see above, is way more than 2% . . . and where did the benefit go? To the Lions.

Lo-Jack was not a terrifying speed rusher at USC. He had 30.5 sacks in four full seasons: 6, 10, 4, and 10.5, in order. But with size, strength, and attitude sharpened by life in hardscrabble Inglewood, Jackson was a force in both dimensions of the game; in his senior year he paired his 10.5 sacks with 60 tackles—a prototypical Schwartz/Cunningham defensive end.

When injuries hit the defensive line, Jackson answered the bell in a big, big way. Getting a steady diet of snaps from week 10 on, Lo-Jack had a huge (+5.0) game against Buffalo, at left end. He was flipped to the right when KVB went down, and was average against the Bears in his first game on that side. He was flipped back to the left against Green Bay, and had a very strong game, then back to the right against the Bucs and dominated (+4.5). He stayed on the right side the rest of the way out, struggling against Jake Long, but finishing strong against Bryant McKinnie.

Bottom Line: Lo-Jack produced like an above-average starter in heavy rotation, and fron Week 10 on was one of the better 4-3 DEs in the game. I’ll hold off on anointing him the starter of the future for now, because I’d like to see more consistency—but there’s no doubt he’d be the perfect physical fit for the void KVB will eventually leave.

Next, the ever-controversial Turk McBride. Controversial, because I repeatedly dismissed him in my offseason assessments last year, much to the chagrin of the commentariat. This season, the 6’-2”, 278-pound ex-Chief played about 40% fewer snaps than Avril or KVB, but about 40% more than Lo-Jack—exclusively at the left end until Vanden Bosch went down, then exclusively at the right end for the rest of the season.

The stats suggest that McBride was nearly as successful as Jackson; McBride had five sacks to Lo-Jack's eight. The second Green Bay game sheds some light on why they graded out so differently, though. By PFF’s reckoning, both McBride and Jackson had two sacks, yet McBride’s grade for that day was –0.3, and Jackson’s was +2.1. Jackson is clearly having more of an impact down-to-down; Lo-Jack’s run support is much better than McBride’s, as well.

Bottom Line: McBride is an interesting case. Phyiscally, he’s a bit of a ‘tweener, and he did manage to get to the quarterback five times. However, I’ve never liked the cut of his jib for reasons I couldn’t fully explain. The PFF grades show why: when he’s not sacking the quarterback, he’s simply not a factor. PFF’s consistency/home-run bias may be coming into play here, but it supports my eyeball take: Lo-Jack has long-term starter potential here; Turk McBride does not.

There’s nothing that can be said about The Great Willie Young that Neil from Armchair Linebacker hasn’t already said (at breathtakingly profane length!), but I will say this: in only six snaps, he was graded at a +1.5 on the season. He also impressed during the preseason.

Bottom Line: Willie Young is a developmental prospect with a very lean frame, a long way to go, and an undeniable knack for playing football. I hope he has a place on the roster for next season.

We’ve already talked about Andre Fluellen as a defensive tackle. He played 81 snaps there, as opposed to 72 at end, during the Avril/KVB injury phase of weeks 11-15. As a DE, he graded out as a below-average pass rusher, and a well-below-average everything else. I believe his future on this team is as a tackle.

Bottom Line: At 6’-2”, 302, Fluellen is a defensive tackle. He should get this offseason to be developed and coached strictly within that role, rather than being moved all over the line. Instead of frantically gaining and losing weight to fit immediate need, the Lions should develop him this year as strictly a three-technique DT.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions will need to find an impact two-way defensive end, ready to replace KVB as a starter by the 2012 season. Lawrence Jackson has the potential to be that end. Cliff Avril is an RFA who must be re-signed to a long-term deal. The Lions may look for a developmental speed-first end behind Avril, especially if Willie Young does not take major strides in the offseason.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,team needs,nfl draft,cliff avril,kyle vanden bosch,lawrence jackson

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Old Mother Hubbard: the Defensive Tackles

Let’s start with the good news! First, let me quote the “Bottom Line” summary of last year’s defensive tackles, from last year’s Old Mother Hubbard:

Andre Fluellen is a very versatile, high-effort player only two years removed from being a third-round draft pick. Whether he plays inside, outside, or both in 2010, Flu should get plenty of rotational snaps next season.

Landon Cohen is rapidly developing from a seventh-round flier into a useful rotational DT. While he'll never be a 320-pound line-clogger, he's only 23. If he focuses on lower-body development, improves his leverage, and continues to hone his technique, he’ll be a very nice complement to/backup for/situational replacement of Sammie Hill.

Grady Jackson turned in a B- performance in doing exactly what the Lions asked—stop the run on 1st and 10. Even if the Lions draft or sign a three-down starter, Jackson can still contribute in that role. I expect to see him back on the roster in 2010, though hopefully not as a “starter”.

Sammie Hill is already the Lions’ best defensive tackle, and should prove to be much better in 2010 and beyond. He has the size, strength, and athleticism to become a perennial Pro Bowler, and his steady improvement from preseason to the end of the season shows the effort and coachability he’ll need to get there. He’ll start for the Lions this season, and for many more to come.

Bottom Line: There’s no doubt that the defensive line is much stouter this season than last—that 0.72 YpC improvement in the run defense had to come from somewhere!—this is still a D+/C- line. The Lions absolutely must add an impact starter. Whether that is an elite DT talent in the draft—as in, with the #2 overall pick—or, by trade for a veteran starter, or by making a splash in the free agent market, it must be done.

There was a lot of praise for each individual player, but the Bottom Line for the unit as a whole said it best: “This is still a D+/C- line.” The Lions needed more consistency against the run than Jackson or Hill were managing, and much more penetration up the middle than Fluellen or Cohen were providing. They needed someone to demand double teams inside, to free up the ends outside.

Subtractions:

Grady Jackson was released after one year in Detroit. Landon Cohen didn’t quite make the final 53 for 2010; he was let go just days before the season opener.

Additions:

Ndamukong Suh, or course, was the Lions’ top draft pick, #2 overall. The Lions traded a fifth-round pick to the Browns for Corey Williams and a seventh-round pick. This is what is technically known, to people in the industry, as a “filthy steal.”

Chart?

Chart.

This is a star chart, showing the Pro Football Focus player grades Of the Lions’ four active-roster DTs. If you’re unfamiliar with PFF’s grading methodology,  just follow that link. They painstakingly review every player’s performance on every snap in every game, grading their performance on each play from –2 to +2, where “zero” is a typical, “he did his job” level of performance. For context, I’ve included the best- and worst-graded DTs who played at least 25% of their teams’ snaps: the Bills’ Kyle Williams, and the Colts’ Daniel Muir, respectively. The black line shows the league average.

First, we see just how ridiculously good Kyle Williams graded out this year, especially against the run; he was nearly unblockable. This was a good chunk of the reason why the Lions’ runningbacks couldn’t get to the line of scrimmage, let alone past it, when they played the Bills.

Though he played just 372 snaps, Sammie Hill graded out as the Lions’ most effective overall DT, and eleventh-best in the NFL. He was the Lions’ best, and most consistent, run stopper. Hill also went the whole season without a penalty, the cleanest of the Lions’ DTs. Surprisingly, he was also an above-average pass rusher.

Initially, Hill’s performance was underwhelming. He turned in weak grades throughout the beginning of the season, especially against Minnesota. However, after the Jets game Hill turned a corner, and graded positively against both the run and the pass for the rest of the season. His best performance was against Tampa Bay: he played about 40% of snaps, and logged a sack, three tackles, and an assist. I admit, I winced when I re-read my line from last year about Hill having the talent to be a “perennial Pro Bowler,” but his upside is high, indeed—and he’s getting there fast.

Bottom Line: A natural big body who is slowly fulfilling his top-flight physical potential, Hill will remain a big part of the Lions’ rotation as his technique and body develop.

Ndamukong Suh played almost a thousand snaps this year, leading all defensive tackles. In the middle of the season, PFF tried to defuse the Suh hype bomb, explaining that his performance was quite rookie-like. Yes, despite undeniable physical talent, and some monster games and plays, Suh was all over the place in 2010. Sometimes, he flashed truly elite pass-rushing skills;  sometimes, he was blown off the ball. Just as I saw with Sammie Hill in his rookie season, Suh struggled against trap and seal blocks. If the man blocking him wasn’t the man directly across from him, Suh was often taken out of the play.

His awesome closing ability means he’s sort of the anti-DeVries: he gets an awful lot of sacks per pressure. However, just as Jared DeVries put a lot more heat on the QB than his sack numbers suggested, Suh’s impacting the game much less than the sack totals would suggest, especially given a thousand snaps to work with.

Let me be clear: a rookie starting, playing a thousand snaps, and getting stronger throughout the year—his best grades were in weeks 8, 11, 12, 14, and 15—is phenomenal. That he successfully brought down the quarterback ten times is amazing. But, remember about the “instant impact” rookie: “amazing” for a rookie is still only “really good” in absolute terms. You can see on the chart above, Suh is nowhere near the best defensive tackle in the NFL. But his floor is “above-average NFL starter,” and his ceiling is . . . well, through the roof.

Bottom Line: Suh is an incredible physical talent, with almost unlimited upside. As a rookie, he performed like an above-average starter, while carrying the heaviest workload in the NFL. If he continues to improve, Suh will become one of the best in the NFL—and maybe one of the best ever.

For all the smart moves, solid trades, and wise decisions Martin Mayhew has made over his two-and-a-half season tenure as Lions GM, none has gotten a higher yield with less of an investment than Corey Williams. By overall grade, Williams was the “least good” of the Lions’ three DTs with enough snaps to qualify for PFF’s rankings. However, that’s almost entirely due to his worst-in-the-NFL grade for penalties, something every Lions fan knows full well about. Williams was the Lions’ best pass-rushing DT, which is saying something; the Lions’ line consists entirely of above-average pass rushing DTs. He was also strongly positive against the run and in coverage.

At the end of the season, Gunther Cunningham said that he thinks Corey Williams is just as deserving of Pro Bowl honors as Suh. Outside of the ridiculous penchant for penalties (several of which kept critical opponent drives alive), the PFF grades agree.

Bottom Line: Williams was a two-way force for the Lions in 2010, and an incredible addition to the roster. With his natural size (6’-4”, 320 lb.), great acceleration, and sometimes-too-quick snap anticipation, Williams is a difficult assignment for any offensive lineman. It would be really, really, really nice if he could cut down on the penalties.

The only other player to earn snaps at DT for the Lions in 2010 was Andre Fluellen. With much fewer snaps than any of the others, he didn’t make the 25%-or-more cut.  He was very slightly above “average NFL starter” level in pass rush, but was a liability against the run. Combined with a picking up a penalty, his final PFF grade put him as far below “average NFL starter” as Ndamukong Suh was above.

Bottom Line: Flu is still very young (two years older than Suh), and has developed into a decent pass rusher. He still has a hard time anchoring against the run, and is more of a “pursuit” guy. He’s not, then, an ideal fit for this defense. But anyone with his frame, athleticism, and ability to penetrate will keep getting chances as long as they keep working hard. Flu is a perfectly fine rotational/situational DT—and still has room to grow.

Practice squadder Robert Callaway, fresh out of Saginaw Valley last season, didn’t see any action. I’m sure the 6’-5”, 312-pound local boy will get at least a camp invite this summer.

SHOPPING LIST? As a unit, the Lions’ defensive tackles are complete. They join the Giants, Eagles, Raiders, and Vikings as the only teams where every member of the active DT rotation was graded above average. The oldest, Williams, is 30; Fluellen just turned 26, Suh and Hill are both 24. Unless the Lions want new blood to replace Fluellen (unlikely, as they just tendered him an RFA offer), the Lions should make no moves here.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,defensive tackles,defensive line,nfl draft,nfl free agency,ndamukong suh,corey williams

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