Meet the Cubs: Jonte Green

6.26 (#196): Jonte Green, CB, New Mexico St.

Florida is one of the most prominent football states in the nation. Some of the best high school football is played there, some of the best college football is played there, and every other college swings through the peninsula to harvest some of the annual bumper crop of talent.

When a 6’-0”, 184-pound kid from football factory Lakewood (Green is the ninth alumnus to be drafted) with all-district honors at tailback and cornerback qualifies for the Florida state track championships in the 100-meter, 4x100 and 4x400 relays, the football world stands up and takes notice . . .

. . . unless his name is Jonte Green.

 Rivals.com rated Green a two-star recruit. I didn’t find a recruit profile for him on Scout.com at all. He didn’t even make the Tampa Bay Times’ annual Top 25 of the Bay [Area] list.

Green ended up signing with South Carolina’s Benedict College, a member of the D-II Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference. I don’t know if he had eligibility problems, or if he just wasn’t rated as a prospect. Either way, at Benedict Green’s size, speed and ability stood out. He racked up 41 tackles (16 solo), 4 INTs, 2 passes defensed and a sack.

Yes, for those with sharp eyes and keen minds, Atlanta's Stillman College plays in the same conference. Future Detroit Lions Sammie Hill and Jonte Green faced one another on November 10th, 2007. Hill had 3 solo tackles, 5 assists and a sack, while Green had three solos. For the record: Stillman beat Benedict 35-13.

After Green's excellent true freshman performance he received a D-I offer, from New Mexico State, and committed on February 4th, 2009. After transferring, he redshirted a season.

As a redshirt sophomore, Green took over. In his first career D-I start, vs. Idaho, he racked up 7 tackles and a pass defensed. Ultimately, Green had the fourth-most tackles on the team, racking up 74, and 8 passes defensed, in New Mexico’s 13 games. Green’s junior season: started 12 games, notched 76 tackles (ranked fourth on the team) and 8 passes defensed.

You might be noticing a pattern here: a lot of tackles, some passes defensed, and no interceptions. I’d be tempted to say it’s because the other cornerback, Packers 2011 4th-rounder Davon House, was hogging them all. But Aggie opponents, you’d think, would want throw away from House, who was first-team All-WAC both seasons he started alongside Green, and pick on Green.

But sure enough, when House left, Green’s senior season as the #1 corner saw his statistics skyrocket. He got his only D-I interception, and 15 passes defensed, to go with his usual fourth-best-on-the-team 64 tackles. For his standout campaign, he was named Second Team All-WAC.

Unfortunately, Green once again went unnoticed. Apparently a 5'-11 1/4", 191-pound corner who started three years in the WAC  and starred in Florida high school track (and competed in track at Benedict) doesn’t merit a combine invite. But Green’s Pro Day made up for it: he cut an average 4.41 40-yard dash, which would have tied him for second-best at the Combine. According to Justin Rogers at Mlive.com, though, Green thinks he can run faster.

Actually, his Pro Day results concern as much as they intrigue. His 3-cone drill (7.26) and 20-yard shuttle (4.31) times are definitely on the high end; Green may have straight-line speed but lack the agility and change-of-direction needed to cover downfield at the NFL level.

Let's see what the experts think:

ESPN's Scouts, Inc. graded Green as a 30 overall:

What he brings: Green has excellent range in coverage and he flashed above-average coverage skills, but he's too inconsistent at this point and he needs to get stronger to matchup with bigger receivers.

SI.com graded Green a 1.81, just below their 1.98 maximum for "Free Agent": "Player who will make a 60 or 80 man roster."

Positives: Athletic cornerback who's displayed a variety of skill in his game. Plays with an aggressive nature, works hard to defend the run and makes a lot of tackles up the field. Keeps the action in front of him, gets a nice jump on the throw and displays a good move to the pass. Can burst to the ball out of his plant and works to make plays. Solid return specialist who sets up blocks, finds the running lanes and quickly gets through them.

Negatives: Does not consistently play to his 40 time or show a burst. Loses opponents, blows assignments and does a lot of trailing down the field. Struggles staying with receivers out of breaks.

Analysis: Green is a size/speed prospect who flashed ability the past three years yet has shown little consistency in his ball skills. Best in zone coverage, he's a prospect who must earn his wage on special teams.

Pro Football Weekly's take on Green contains an interesting wrinkle: apparently Green participated in New Mexico's Pro Day as a junior, and he was both smaller (5'-10 3/4", 182 pounds) and slower (4.45) just a year before.

Summary: Three-year starter with outstanding timed speed and range, though his inconsistent play, poor instincts and suspect football character suppress his draft value. Could require simple assignments and needs to get stronger and adopt a more professional approach to the game in order to stick.

CBSSports.com's Dane Brugler didn't give Green a grade, but did have useful notes:

Strengths: Good starting experience as a three-year starter and good career production (30 pass break-ups). Good size/speed blend with good height and length to match up and the speed to stay with receivers. Aggressive in run support and attacks the action, not waiting for it. Quick read/react skills to plant-and-go when the play is in front of him. Toughness isn't a question. Full-go type of player and doesn't play half-speed or take plays off.

Weaknesses: Has room to get stronger and needs to add some more bulk. Plays flat-footed in his backpedal and is often a step too late, relying on his speed to catch up. Smaller hands and has only 2 career interceptions. Needs to do a better job wrapping and not just hitting. Streaky instincts and doesn't always play smart, needs to do a better job trusting his eyes. Didn't face elite competition week-in and week-out. Tight-hipped and doesn't look as natural flipping his body to turn and run downfield.

New Era Scouting didn’t have a profile for Green, nor did he crack their cornerback rankings.

Here I sit, broken hearted. I looked for YouTube Highlight Reels of Jonte Green and all I found were interviews and press conferences.

Conclusion

In some ways, Jonte Green is the archetypal Lions draft pick: starting caliber tools, potential to be a major contributor, big question marks about him ever hitting that upside. But rather than those question marks coming from injuries or character or college system or college competition, the questions are about his football instincts.

Generally, The Grandmaster & Co. prefer players with high football IQ, but generally such players aren’t hanging around in the sixth round when they’re nigh-on six feet cornerbacks with legit 4.40 speed.

As a prospect, he reminds me quite a bit of Stanley Wilson, the Lions’ 2005 third-rounder. Wilson was also 5’-11”, also about 190 pounds, also a track star. Wilson set Stanford records in the 100- and 200-meter dash, and he cut a blazing 4.36 40-yard time at the Combine. The biggest difference between Wilson and Green is Wilson’s Stanford-quality academic background and Pac-10 pedigree.

At the time, I wondered if Wilson wasn’t better suited to playing safety; just like Green his reaction skills were much better with the play in front of him than flipping his hips and running downfield. I thought Wilson would be a great zone/Tampa 2 corner, but he never caught on.

Green, like all Lions cornerbacks, will have every opportunity to earn playing time this season. All he has to is go out on the Allen Park field, and take the opportunity to finally catch everyone’s attention.

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Meet Jacob Lacey, new Detroit Lions Cornerback

The Lions secured the services of all of their major free agents, and extended Calvin Johnson until the sun goes dark. As I wrote last week, this slams the revolving free agency door shut: the Lions won’t be losing any of their key young veterans for quite some time.

The flip side of this is obvious: they won't be bringing in anyone else's key young veterans, either. The Lions have only acquired one new free agent who figures to make any impact at all, and that's former Colts cornerback Jacob Lacey.

What are we getting? What can we expect? How does Lacey stack up to the existing Lions cornerbacks? Time to mash up two of our favorite features: Meet the Cubs and Old Mother Hubbard.

Jacob Lacey was a three-star Rivals prospect out of Garland, Texas. A 5’-10,” 155-pound kid with decent speed and some pop in his shoulder, Lacey had several Big XII and Big Ten offers. Lacey initially committed to Kansas, but flipped to Oklahoma State. Lacey played in 10 games as a freshman, and started all 13 games his sophomore year—as he would his junior and senior years as well.

Per College Football Reference, Lacey’s junior year was extremely impressive: 63 tackles, 48 of them solo, with 5 interceptions (one returned for a score) and 14 passes defensed. He had 61 tackles in senior year, 52 solo, and though he only had 2 picks he still broke up 16 passes.

Lacey's lack of game-breaking ball skills, as well as his thin frame (his combine weight was 177 pounds), dropped him out of draft consideration. Most sites projected him as a free agent, but also noted his upside (SI.com graded Lacey at 3.00, a “first-year contributor” in their system).

Contribute immediately, he did: after signing with the Colts and making the initial 53-man roster, Lacey got on the field almost immediately, and started Week 5 of his rookie year. After the subsequent bye, Lacey picked off Sam Bradford, took it back to the house, and drew a celebration flag all in one go . . . my kind of player. He finished 2010 with 3 interceptions and 7 passes defensed in sixteen games (nine starts).

Lacey was picked on, too; Mike Vick and Carson Palmer completed a combined 10-of-12 against him for 101 yards and a score over consecutive weeks. But for an undrafted free agent rookie, stepping in and being a major contributor to a team’s weakest unit is impressive.

As for 2011? Well . . .

As we saw in the cornerback Old Mother Hubbard, Darrelle Revis was the best corner on the planet last season and nobody was close. Aaron Berry earned the season’s best PFF grade, barely eclipsing Chris Houston who played hurt at the tail end of the season (note that Houston’s positive plays actually helped the Lions win more than Revis’s did the Jets).

After Berry and Houston’s solidly above-average performances, Alphonso Smith turned in the most spectacularly boom-or-bust mediocre season ever. It’s at this performance level, with a much improved level of consistency, that Lacey’s 2011 campaign came in.

Lacey played 712 snaps, three times as many as Smith, almost twice as many as Berry, and about a hundred fewer than Houston. He didn’t have much statistically in either direction: just 2 TDs allowed, but only 1 interception and 3 passes defensed. At 34 targets per TD allowed, he was above the NFL average, and ranked 30th out of 109 qualifying corners. But then, he also allowed 73.5% of passes targeted his way to be caught, which was the eighth-worst percentage in the NFL.

This is probably why Colts fans were not a huge fan of Lacey's work last season, and also likely why Lacey was available for the Lions to sign. But his +EPA of 31.7 and +WPA of 0.58 back up the statistical production: he didn’t make a lot of big plays, but he made them in big spots—and his PFF coverage grade of -4.8 coverage indicates he didn’t allow that many of them, either. Plus, his run grade was an excellent +3.1, 22nd-best of 109 in the NFL.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story, either. Nate Dunlevy of Colts Authority and Bleacher Report pointed out this ESPN story about Lacey’s rebound after defensive coordinator Larry Coyer was fired. The bounce in the PFF grades is Backusian:

Dunlevy also went to the tape himself to break down Lacey’s performance against the Chiefs in that fateful Week 5 game you see in red above. Lacey had a rough day at the office, but not nearly as bad as Colts fans came away thinking.

Bottom Line: Jacob Lacey is about as good as Alphonso Smith, trading the gambling risk/reward for consistency and much improved play against the run. Lacey should have a good look at unseating Smith for playing time in nickel/dime situations; if he can continue developing as he did at the end of the year he could push Berry for time at the #2 spot.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Cornerbacks

Ah, the Detroit Lions cornerbacks. Few units in the NFL took as much heat in the wake of the 2011 season. The Lions surrendered 928 passing yards and 90 points in their last two games; since their last two games were their crucial Week 17 attempt to break the longest road losing streak in the history of professional sport, and their first playoff game in over a decade, respectively . . . that looks bad.

So bad, in fact, that every initial mock draft had the Lions taking a corner in the first round, which as I said at Bleacher Report is completely silly. But is it?

Here's what 2010's Old Mother Hubbard had to say about the cornerbacks we'll analyze today:

With a full #1 starter’s workload, Chris Houston performed at an average, maybe just-below-average, level for an NFL starter. Considering the pittance the Lions paid to get him, performance like that is impressive. As the Lions’ #1 corner, they should draft someone with flashier coverage skills to pair with him. As the Lions’ #2 corner, he’d be excellent. Further, he’s only 26—if the Lions can hold onto this likely RFA, he may continue to improve.

Alphonso Smith is a gifted natural slot cornerback, with the tenacity to play well against the run, and even be dangerous as a pass rusher. His instincts and hands are enough to make him a ballhawk, but his repeated brain farts make him a liability as an outside cornerback. Perhaps time and development will iron this out, but for now pencil him in as a multi-year “starting” nickel back.

Then, from the Shopping for Cornerbacks free-agent Old Mother Hubbard:

Eric Wright’s inclusion on this list may surprise some, as the Browns’ 2007 2nd-round pick actually received death threats over his perceived poor play last season. PFF graded him poorly indeed, with a –4.3 overall. His coverage mark was a rotten –11.9, second-worst in the NFL. However, Wright intrigues me for several reasons: first, he’s 5’-10”, 190, so a decently-sized fellow. Second, was graded +3.3 in pass rush, third-best in the NFL, and +4.7 in run support, 12th-best in the NFL.

Wright is a young, talented player with a lot of experience, and he’s proven to be exceptional—truly exceptional—at a couple different dimensions of his position. It’s true that the one exception, coverage, is the one we’re really looking for, but if he’s available for peanuts, he’s exactly the kind of reclamation project the Lions do brilliantly with.

So how did that all translate to 2011? Let’s look at the data:

Let’s talk disclaimers. Pro Football Focus grades are based on TV footage, and while I believe completely in what they do over there, downfield pass coverage grades are the area where they have the hardest time figuring out what’s going on. Without knowing each player’s assignment, and most of the secondary being offscreen at the snap, PFF cornerback grades have limitations.

Advanced NFL Stats' +EPA measures the expected points added by a player’s positive plays, but cannot measure failures. Cornerbacks are the position where “lack of failure” is arguably more important than positive playmaking, so again—there are real limitations here. Same applies to +WPA: a timely interception can swing the likelihood of winning around very quickly, but a surrendered touchdown can too—and that won’t show up in +WPA.

To sum up: PFF grades and ANS metrics are never going to be more variant and contradictory than when assessing cornerbacks. However, his increases the value of including both sets of data. Though we’re going to have to fill in the gaps ourselves, it’s better to know reality lies in the gap than unwittingly treating one number as gospel.

The top Pro Football Focus dog is Darrelle Revis, whose +23.1 overall grade was best in the business by a significant margin. Revis’s +16.8 coverage grade is more than four points higher than the next closest contenders (Baltimore’s Ladarius Webb and Atlanta’s Brent Grimes). Bringing up the PFF rear is St. Louis’s Justin King, who graded out as negatively as Revis did positively.

For the Lions, the highest-PFF-graded cornerback is Aaron Berry. Berry, the scapegoat of the Lions’ wild-card loss, took a world of abuse for dropping potential interceptions. However, he was the Lions’ steadiest cover corner. With 411 snaps played, Berry graded out at +4.1 overall;  24th-best in the NFL. Berry can boast a +2.1 in coverage and +1.3 in run-stopping. In pass rush he was flat at +0.0, and only assessed penalty. All of these grades are above NFL average for corners with at least 25% of their teams’ snaps.

The 5’-11”, 180-pound Berry’s worst game was his first one: his –1.1 showing at Tampa Bay. He was thrown at ten times—a shocking level of picking-on—and allowed 8 catches for 77 yards and a score. It was his only negative grade all season.  His performances got better and better, climaxing in Weeks 6, 7, and 8 with performances of +0.9, +1.6, and +2.0.

After the bye, Berry got a heavy workload in Chris Houston’s absence and graded at zero throughout that stretch. Then, Berry got injured himself in Week 14, and didn’t return until the fateful Wild Card game—where PFF graded him out at a solid +1.6 overall, including a heavy ding for two penalties.

Berry was used primarily in the nickel package throughout the season, though he played on the outside, not the inside, when he did. The 23-year-old was steady beyond his years, though not spectacular; he had no interceptions and four passes defensed. Berry’s +EPA was a meager 0.14, and his +WPA was lacking at 0.44. You see the complete picture: solid, steady, reliable, not a game-breaker—and that’s just fine in this defense.

Bottom Line: Aaron Berry is a 23-year-old cornerback coming off a UDFA rookie year completely wiped out by injury. Incredibly, he was a steady, better-than-average right outside corner (when used . When pressed into full-time duty he performed like an average NFL starting cornerback in coverage and against the run. Even if he never improves (doubtful), Berry has earned a spot in the top four—and a crack at the top two.

The next-highest PFF-graded corner was top starter Chris Houston. Houston had a very up-and-down season, all of which averaged out to +3.7 overall, +1.7 in coverage, and +0.3 against the run. His slight –0.5 ding in rushing the passer is more than made up for by his +2.2 penalty grade; Houston was flagged just twice in 815 snaps.

Houston led the Lions in interceptions with 5, and finished second in passes defensed with another 5. He held opposing quarterbacks to 45 completions on 86 targets, a 52.3% completion percentage (NFL average: 59.1%). However, he allowed 13.0 yards per catch and 4 touchdowns—both slightly worse than the NFL averages of 12.9 and 3. Opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 65.4 when challenging Houston; that slots him 21st in the NFL out of 110 qualifying corners.

Houston seemed to be strongly negative or positive all season long; only four of his fifteen games played weren’t greater than 1.0 in either direction. The most fascinating part of this is that Houston’s coverage and run-stuffing grades moved in lockstep. There isn’t a single game where his coverage and run grades aren’t either both negative or both positive . . . this is extremely unusual.

You can see Houston’s positive impact in his +WPA. No corner helped the Lions win with impact plays more than Houston and his 0.69 +WPA. His +EPA is absolutely stonking: 48.1, seventh-best in the NFL. That figure is higher than Revis (40.9) and Finnegan (45.0), but that 0.69 +WPA is well below those two corners’ (1.84 and 0.88 respectively). This shows that Houston was making plays as well as any corner in the NFL, but those plays weren’t contributing to Lions victories like the elite corners.

Bottom Line: Chris Houston is a solid starting all-around NFL cornerback, and the best corner the Lions have. He’s a two-dimensional player given to both great games and shaky games. He struggles against height (Laurent Robinson, Darrius Heyward-Bey), but ultimately comes up big in the biggest moments—and feasts on subpar competition. Houston will enter 2012 as the Lions’ #1 cornerback, barring an unlikely blockbuster trade or megabuck free agent-signing. 2012 will also be the last year of his two-year deal signed this summer.

Alphonso Smith is a curious case. After showing a propensity to make huge plays both good and bad last season, he couldn’t get ahead of Aaron Berry or Eric Wright to save his life in 2011. Until Week 13 at New Orleans, Smith essentially didn’t play.

Then, Smith alternated good games with bad ones the rest of the season. Against Minnesota, he was graded at +1.3. At Oakland, –3.7. Against San Diego, +1.4. At Green Bay, –3.3. Oh, then –1.0 in the playoffs. All told, Smith graded out at –4.7 overall, –1.4 in run defense, and –4.5 in coverage. To his credit, he wasn’t penalized at all in 259 snaps.

To his further credit, Smith allowed just 55.8% of balls thrown his way to be caught, at a 12.0 YpR clip. With his 2 TDs allowed, 3 INTs, and  3 passes defensed, Smith had the Lions’ best passer rating allowed, at 62.8.

It shouldn’t surprise, then, that Smith’s knack for game-breaking positive plays endear him to Advanced NFL Stats’ metrics. His 26.6 +EPA would be unremarkable, except he put up that production in just 9 games played (and only saw significant action in 5). On a per-game basis, Smith was 11th in the NFL in +EPA. His 0.48 +WPA is in the middle of the NFL pack—but again, for just a handful of games played, Smith had a massive positive impact.

But again, Smith also had a massive negative impact that more than offset the plays he made. The bottom line is unchanged from last season, except Smith will be looking up at at least Houston and Berry on the depth chart.

Bottom Line: Alphonso Smith is a gifted natural slot cornerback, with the tenacity to play well against the run, and even be dangerous as a pass rusher. His instincts and hands are enough to make him a ballhawk, but his repeated brain farts make him a liability as an outside cornerback. Perhaps time and development will iron this out.

Finally, Eric Wright. Wright took less money to sign a one-year “prove it” deal with Detroit. What did he prove? Well, he proved he’s still got elite talent—and that he’s maddeningly far away from realizing it. With the Lions’ heaviest workload at 1,043 snaps, Wright earned the NFL’s fifth-worst PFF overall grade of –14.1. It wasn’t just Wright’s –8.3 coverage grade. His pass rush (-1.1), run-stopping (-2.0), and penalty grade (-2.7) were all below NFL average.

But there is a bright side. Though Wright was burned for five touchdowns, he also intercepted four passes (second-best on the Lions) and defended ten (best by a factor of two). In fact, Wright was 11th-best in the NFL with 40.8 +EPA. No Lion cornerback boosted the Lions’ chances to win than Wright; his 0.88 +WPA was 25th-best in the NFL.

When the Lions signed Wright, I suggested they were “on to something.” Clearly, Wright still has playmaking ability, but he’ll fetch a much higher price for that ability on the open market than his week-to-week production is worth. Wright serves as an excellent reminders that gambling on reclamation projects does in fact have a downside.

Bottom Line: Eric Wright still has the talent to become a difference-making NFL cornerback, but he was far too big of a liability far too often in 2011 for the Lions to come in as the highest bidder for his free-agent services. In fact, they weren’t the highest bidder last time around.

SHOPPING LIST: Depends entirely on the Lions’ intentions for the position, and their room underneath the cap. Houston is solid as the #1 corner, and the Lions could do much worse than Berry and Smith as the #2 and slot cornerback. However, the Lions need depth. They would be well-served to draft a corner with long-term starter potential, or go big-time and sign an immediate veteran starter to pair with Houston.

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Lions Sign Eric Wright; Are They Onto Something?

I almost overlooked him. I almost left him off my cornerback shopping list. “It would be a lot of extra typing,” I thought. “I’ve got to get this post up soon,” I fretted. But there was something about Eric Wright, something about his potential and production, something about his story intrigued me. I got a feeling I’ve gotten a few times before, a vibe like I’m onto something. So, I took the time to delve into Wright’s PFF data, and I’m glad I did:

Eric Wright’s inclusion on this list may surprise some, as the Browns’ 2007 2nd-round pick actually received death threats over his perceived poor play last season. PFF graded him poorly indeed, with a –4.3 overall. His coverage mark was a rotten –11.9, second-worst in the NFL. However, Wright intrigues me for several reasons: first, he’s 5’-10”, 190, so a decently-sized fellow. Second, was graded +3.3 in pass rush, third-best in the NFL, and +4.7 in run support, 12th-best in the NFL.

It’s true, Wright was burned for 6 TDs, and he allowed opposing quarterbacks a fifth-worst 121.5 passer rating. But he’s clearly physically gifted, and at 25 still quite young. I also identified a trend with the PFF data . . .

In 2008, Wright had the eighth-best overall cornerback PFF grade. Over 1052 snaps, he turned in an +11.1 rating, despite a –1.1 coverage mark. His run support and pass rush made such an impact, he was the only corner in the top 25 with an even slightly negative coverage mark. He played every snap at left CB. In 2009, he flip-flopped between right and left corner all season long, and his performances were uneven. At work for a whopping 1106 snaps, thrown at 89 times, Wright turned in an overall grade 0f –0.5.

In 2010, Wright played left corner exclusively, until he suffered a bone bruise and got moved in to nickel. He struggled all year long, turning in mostly neutral grades, plus four negatives and a single positive. Oddly, his best performance of the year was in Week 2 (+2.9), and his worst was Week 3 (-4.4) . . . what I’m driving at here is that Wright is a young, talented player with a lot of experience, and he’s proven to be exceptional—truly exceptional—at a couple different dimensions of his position. It’s true that the one exception, coverage, is the one we’re really looking for, but if he’s available for peanuts, he’s exactly the kind of reclamation project the Lions do brilliantly with.

In many ways, Eric Wright is as Chris Houston was: a 2007 second-round draft pick who made an immediate impact, was widely hailed as a an up-and-comer, then had a down year and was given up on. Wright had a longer track record of greater success, but his one bad year was a much bigger disaster.

Wright has always had talent. A three-star RB/DB out of San Francisco, he had offers from almost all of the Pac-10—and he committed to USC. As a redshirt freshman, he stepped on the field and started for the Trojans as they won the National Championship lost institutional control. Wright himself had four tackles and an interception for the Trojans as they won did not play in the 2005 BCS National Championship Orange Bowl.

In March 2005, Wright was accused of committing sexual assault. The charges were dropped, but the stigma didn’t disappear. Faced with a suspension, Wright chose to transfer to UNLV, sitting out a year before getting back on the field for what would be his final college season. He declared for the draft—and though many teams thought the 5’-10”, 190-pound had first-round talent, Wright fell due to character concerns over the incident:

Despite sparkling in workouts during the draft process, Wright also had to convince teams he was worth the risk on the character meter. The Browns were among several teams that rated him draftable.

Said Browns general manager Phil Savage, "I believe in second chances."

Savage said that, in addition to a team investigation that confirmed Wright had no legal issues before or after the incident two years ago, he relied on gut feeling. Savage interviewed Wright at the combine, visited with him at a workout and along with coach Romeo Crennel gained a feel when Wright came to Browns headquarters weeks before the draft.

Wright scored points with the Browns and other teams with his openness.

"He kind of just laid out his side of the story," Savage said. "He basically said, 'I made a mistake, and I haven't made a mistake since.' "

The Browns actually traded up for Wright, sending third- and fourth-round picks to Dallas, and swapping positions in the sixth, to add Wrights’s second-round slot. Per that USA Today article, then-Browns GM Phil Savage said he would have considered Wright at the Browns’ original second-rounder (36th overall) had he not traded it away to get Brady Quinn. Ahem.

Wright, as said above, quickly developed into an outstanding young corner. In 2008 and 2009, he started all 32 games for the Browns, had 7 interceptions, and 27 passes defensed. Then . . . something went wrong. The Cleveland Browns blog Dawgs by Nature said:

For the first three years of his career, Wright was a solid cornerback for the Browns. Opposing teams seemed to stay away from him and he rarely gave up the big play. Last year, the Browns received additional help at the position in Sheldon Brown and Joe Haden. Teams started going after Wright at the beginning of the season, and forever reason, he looked completely lost. It was not the same Wright we had seen his first three years in Cleveland. It was almost as bad as Jake Delhomme's playoff collapse when he was with the Panthers a couple years ago. When Delhomme threw a pass the following season, you always had a bad feeling. With Wright, whenever a team targeted him deep, you had the feeling that it was going to result in a touchdown. It usually did, especially if your name is Anquan Boldin.

Interestingly, the members of that blog voted at 2:1 clip to keep Wright around, and many of the comments suggested that the problem with Wright was being hung out to dry by a terrible pass rush. At the Browns’ Scout.com site, the Orange and Brown Report, users speculated about personal problems, or some kind of off the field distraction. OBR member “Brownieman,” though, posited the following:

What I want to know... and I hope nickelbacker is still lurking around and will be willing to shed some light on this.... is did Eric REALLY have an off year? Or was it other circumstances? Up until last year Wright has been way above average for us, he has been our best corner since he was drafted. He was rarely abused by ANYONE before last year. Now I doubt he just forgot how to play defense.... something else had to be going on.

Does anyone think that Wright's struggles last year, may have anything to do with Ward blowing coverages? . . . If Ward had responsibilities over the top, and read the play wrong, it would have left Wright on an island, when he believed he had a man providing coverage further up the field. This would explain how WR's were able to get extreme amounts of separation over the top. Wright is not slow, and I find it hard to believe that he "couldn't" run with Anquan Boldin. It makes more sense, that Wright followed Boldin through his zone and then broke off coverage as he was leaving his zone and entering Wards area of the field... Only to realize that Ward was out of position, which in turn makes Wright abandon his responsibilities and try to provide some sort of coverage instead of letting a man just run free up the field . . . I may be off, but to me, it seems like Wright is taking the blame for Ward's growing pains.

Obviously, the Browns are letting Wright walk, so he can’t just be a victim of circumstance. To whatever degree it was his fault, Wright’s play took an unexpected, unprecedented step back last season. But there’s no denying that Wright has the tools and talent to be a top corner in the NFL—and spent three years proving he was on track to do just that before he derailed last year. Tom Kowalski’s recent Tweet bears this out:

Talked to a few NFL personnel people ... they think Detroit landed a terrific player in Eric Wright .. coming off bad year, but great talent

No one knows whether Wright can recover his previous form. For that reason, I’m glad he’s on a one-year deal—and I hope the Lions aren’t done signing starting-caliber cornerbacks. If Wright plays like he did last year, and Nate Vasher is the #2, the Lions’ secondary could well be their Achilles heel. However, if Wright bounces back like Houston did, and the Lions re-sign Houston? Suddenly the cornerbacks look very, very solid. Only time will tell whether Mayhew’s gamble pays off . . . but I feel like he’s onto something.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,eric wright,cleveland browns,nfl free agency,cornerbacks

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The Lions’ Free Agency Picture Gets Clearer

On Monday, I posted the timeline for contracts and signings, and noted that what happens midweek will set the stage for the moves to come:

Besides the rumors of who’s negotiating with who that will hit the wire come Tuesday lunchtime, keep a close watch on Thursday for the release of Lions veterans. Cuts, and whispers of renegotiated contracts for players like Jeff Backus, will hint broadly at the Lions’ approach. Will they be major players for major contributors, or just dipping a finger in the frosting of a rich free agent cake?

A few moves have already been made: Bryant Johnson has been informed of his impending release, Dave Rayner has agreed to return to compete for the kicking job, and free agent OLB Stephen Nicholas will return to the Falcons. Now, the National Football Post is reporting that the Lions have offered Titans MLB Stephen Tulloch a contract with a $10M bonus, and that Lions staff and players alike are helping recruit Tulloch to Detroit.

If they could land him, it would neatly upgrade two positions at once: Tulloch would step in as MLB, and DeAndre Levy would return to the outside. With Bobby Carpenter a free agent, the Lions would still have to add an OLB of some kind, but the LB corps would be greatly improved regardless.

The question remains: what are the Lions’ plans for the cornerback position? The amount of cap room the Lions have left isn’t great; my thought was they’d be able to get a handful of decent players, or perhaps make a big splash on one and get one more good guy. If Tulloch agrees to this apparently-massive deal, I’m not sure they’ll be able to make a run at Johnathan Joseph, as ESPN’s Chis Mortenson rumored.

Then again, as Sports Business Journal’s Liz Mullen pointed out on Twitter, the NFL’s new salary cap is “soft.” It’s a leaguewide maximum total, not a per-team maximum—and even then, there’s some wiggle room ($3M of exceptions in the first year, for example). Perhaps the Lions are simply going to go for broke—add two long-term, quality starters in Tulloch and Joseph, and round out the bottom of the roster with lots and lots of youth. I can’t say the vision I’m seeing through the fog is entirely unpleasant.

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Free Agency: Riverboat Gambling

The NHL free agency period opened up right before the holiday weekend, and a slew of teams eager to spend a surplus of cap money pushed prices through the roof. The Red Wings made a couple of decent Plan B and Plan C signings, along with bringing back every current Wing they really wanted back—but fan hopes of blowing through a $16M war chest and landing an impact defensemen, impact forward, and veteran goalie in the opening 48 hours were dashed. Per Nick Cotsonika, the Red Wings’ attempt to see how the market breaks didn’t break their way; they were forced to bring in players they didn’t like because their targets went elsewhere.

The zaniness surrounding the upcoming NFL free agency period will be an order of magnitude worse. First, the salary cap will likely be higher—and the salary floor will be definitely be much higher. It’s likely that the cap will be less “artificial” and more tied to actual cash outlay. Penny-pinching teams (like the Bucs) will have to go out and burn money just to get up to the minimum, pushing the market price for all free agents through the roof.

The question is, are the Lions going to be spenders, or savers? Martin Mayhew famously will not pay more than he thinks a player is worth—and yet he spent lavishly to secure the services of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson. Are there any players who’ll get the Lions to open up the purse strings, or will they be nickel-and-diming it in the second week?

I can't claim to know the thought processes of Mayhew and company, so I’ll just talk it out. First, we’re past the point of stopgaps. The Lions won’t be going out and getting an Anthony Henry or a Grady Jackson on the cheap—hoping an over-the-hill veteran will be able to step in and start. So, don’t expect any of the “need” spots, like cornerback or linebacker, to be filled with penny-ante guys (who’ll likely be paid handsomely in this market anyway). In the Free Agent Cornerback OMH, I said I thought Lions would more likely target a Chris Carr, an Antonio Cromartie—or even both—before laying out the massive cash required for a Nnamdi Asomugha. 

Thinking about it in terms of market forces, though, Chris Carr could make double what he’s actually worth. If you’re concerned about getting value for your money, would you rather back up the Brinks truck for one of the best players on the planet, or pay 70% of that king’s ransom for a B+ starter you’re particularly fond of? It’s an open question. As the negotiations go down to the wire, and both sides talking about when, not if, an agreement is made, the Lions will have to know their targets and pursue them aggressively from the jump—if a third-tier guy is your Plan A, be on his doorstep at midnight with a bucket of money. Get the guy you want, whether that’s Nnamdi or Carr or Cromartie or Eric Wright or Dre Bly. Whoever it is, the Lions can’t be holding their nose as they offer contracts.

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Old Mother Hubbard: Shopping for Cornerbacks

Last we looked, the Lions had whittled their roster-shopping list down to the following:

• A credible backup middle linebacker.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB ready to start right away.
• An athletic cover corner, ready to take over one side in 2012.
• If Chris Houston leaves, a complete two-way corner, ready to start right away.
• A left tackle who can be groomed to replace Jeff Backus
• A center who will be ready to rotate at guard soon, and compete at center for 2012

Let’s assume that I’m right, and the Lions don’t make a big move for Nnamdi Asomugha. Using the same right-player, right-price mantra, will they let Chris Houston get away, too? I’ve often noted that they picked him up for just a sixth-rounder, and his play wasn’t so amazing that they couldn’t possibly replace it. Martin Mayhew clued us in when met with the press and discussed the Lions’ plans for free-agents to be, including Chris Houston:

Lions general manager Martin Mayhew said after the season that re-signing Houston was one of his top priorities.

"He's a guy we definitely want back," Mayhew said. "Chris was a good pickup. We are prepared to tender him or deal with him and make him an offer."

The good news for the Lions is that the cornerback position is probably the strongest of this year's free-agent class, giving the team a great chance at signing a good player to pair with Houston, or replace him.

That glut of good corners works well for the Lions in two ways: one, it provides lots of options, and two, it will keep Houston from commanding a premium. There are too many other good, young corners available for him to be the subject of a bidding war. The language Mayhew uses here is as emphatic as you’ll hear escape his lips: the Lions got a good young starter for next to nothing, and they’re prepared to invest a little more cash to keep him around.

Still, this leaves some questions. Are the Lions looking at Houston as the #1 going forward, and looking for an upgrade over Nate Vasher at the #2 spot? Or, will they sign Houston and a player at least his equal? I’ve done a little digging, created a semi-complete list of plausible UFA-to-be cornerbacks, and given them the Old Mother Hubbard treatment, again with the help of Pro Football Focus.

This one got a little complicated. With the glut of free agent cornerbacks available, I had to whittle down the list. I didn’t include anyone who had a significantly worse PFF overall grade than Chris Houston, as the Lions will be targeting either a Houston replacement or a Vasher upgrade. I didn’t include anyone shorter than 5’-10,” except Josh Wilson (5’-9”, 192). Alphonso Smith has the nickel spot locked down, and the Lions like bigger outside corners. I left Carlos Rogers off due to “right player, right price” concerns; Rogers thinks he’s the second-best available corner (he isn’t) and wants to be paid like it. Ike Taylor’s 31, and already being linked to the Cards and Eagles. Nnamdi is on the chart for reference.

Chris Carr, one of two Raven free-agents-to-be, has to be the Lions’ ideal target. He was mentioned in the very-first-ever Cornerback Old Mother Hubbard:

SUMMARY:  The situation here is dire . . .  I hope Bodden is kept, and we draft a corner with legit speed and excellent return skills--hell, maybe two of them.  A veteran starter would be nice, and Titans fourth-year CB/KR Chris Carr is reportedly interested in getting out from under the shadow of Cortland Finnegan & Co. in Tennessee.  Sounds good to me.  Bring friends Chris; bring friends.

Instead of signing Carr, though, the Lions brought in fellow ex-Titan Eric King, a move I was skeptical about at the time:

I kind of find it difficult to believe that the Titans had two young corners that were good enough to start for other teams on their bench, so I kind of find it difficult to believe that the Lions are going to be okay if they're starting this King guy and Philip Buchanon at corner when toe meets leather in New Orleans.

Sigh.

Carr is 5'-10", 182 pounds, and just turned 28 years old. 2010 was his first year starting out of seven, and he turned in an excellent season. Playing well over one thousand snaps, he turned in a 26th-best (of 100 qualifying CBs) 4.2 overall grade, highlighted by a 13th-best coverage grade of 6.4. His pass rush and run defense were a notch or two below NFL averages, but he kept his nose exceptionally clean: called for only two penalties in those 1,000+ snaps.

Statistically, he was targeted 90 times and allowed 54 catches, for a miniscule 8.7 yards per catch (3rd-best in the NFL). He allowed an average of 2.6 YAC per reception, 5th-best in the NFL. He had just two picks, and four passes defensed, but his passer-rating-allowed was 68.3, 11th-best in the league. Even being tested with sixteen starts, a thousand snaps, and 90 targets, his grades and stats look great. Add that proven performance to the familiarity Jim Schwartz has with him, and he seems like a clear #1 target.  Except, of course, for his teammate.

Josh Wilson is another Baltimore Raven free-agent-to-be, one of four who played at least 500 snaps last year. Other than Carr, though, none played more than 600 snaps. Fabian Washington and Ladarius Webb were in contention to start once Domonique Foxworth went down—but Carr and Wilson took the jobs from them, and finished as one of the best-graded corner tandems in the league. But, with both Carr and Wilson likely to be unrestricted, and with the addition of notoriously talented first-round pick Jimmy Smith, divining which corners the Ravens will keep around is nearly impossible.

Wilson's 2010 was as incredible as it was unusual. A part-time depth guy until Week 10, he turned in a ridiculous back half of the season, with positive grades almost across the board (save a -1.4 vs. PIT, and -0.9 vs. CIN). He graded out as the fifth-best cornerback in the NFL, +13 overall. By turning in a nearly-as-good-as-Nnamdi +9.6 in coverage, plus a much-better-than-Nnamdi +1.8 in run support, Wilson’s grades looked fantastic.

Wilson was thrown at 64 times in his 550+ snaps on the field; he was the 17th-most-picked-on cornerback in the NFL. He allowed just 46.9% of those balls to be caught—plus he picked off 3, and defended 9. His passer-rating-allowed was 67.8, nearly identical to Carr’s and just one rank better.

The caveat to all this is that Wilson, a former second-round pick of the Seahawks, hasn’t ever seen full-time starter duty until now. Further, he’s practically the twin of Alphonso Smith: both are 5’-9”, 190 pounds, 25 years old, and former second-rounders who’ve been traded once in their careers. If Baltimore lets either of these guys go, the Lions should target them. But if both are let go, I believe Carr would be the better fit.

Johnathan Joseph is an interesting case study. The 5’-11”, 190-pound Bengal started every game he was available for over the last two seasons; he missed the last four of 2010 with an injury. Joseph’s 2010 was unremarkable, as he graded out as the 33rd-best of 100 NFL corners. His coverage mark was a flat 0.0, and only his +2.o run-defense grade pulled him up out of the strictly average. However, his 2009 was incredible: he turned in a stonking +14.5 overall, strongly positive against the pass and run and only drew two flags. What happened?

Much as Louis Delmas’s groin did to him, Joseph was dogged by an ankle injury all season long. He’s still widely considered one of the best young corners in the league, and Marvin Lewis has said re-signing Joseph is their top priority. The Bengals placed the first-and-third level tender on him, and appear to be set on bringing him back. Even if they don’t, rumor has it the Texans have their heart set on Joseph—so don’t expect the Lions to make a play.

Kelly Jennings, a former first-round draft pick of . . . wait for it . . . the Seahawks. the 5’-11”, 180-pound 28-year-old has been an on-again, off-again starter for the ‘Hawks throughout his first five seasons. This was his first full year as a first-choice starter, though, and he played 886 snaps across 14 regular-season games and two playoff contests, missing two games (and most of a third) with a hamstring pull. Per ESPN NFC West blogger Mike Sando, Jennings “faces an uncertain future with the team.”

To an extent, this is understandable: Jennings was unremarkable in 2010, grading at +1.3 overall in a season where the NFL average was +0.23. Most of that was fueled by his spotless penalty record, though; his –3.6 in coverage (-0.8 NFL avg.) and +1 against the run (+0.9 NFL avg.) equate to a guy who’s just not pulling his first-round-pick weight.

However, being graded the 41st-best NFL cornerback out of 100 means you should be able to crack the starting corner pair in 2/3rds of the NFL. Jennings may be well below expectations as a first-round draft pick playing the top corner spot, but he merits a look from any team looking to upgrade the #2 spot. WORK ETHIC BONUS: Jennings is participating in Seahawk player workouts, even without a contract.

Antonio Cromartie is one interesting cat—and one intriguing talent. At 6’-2”, 210, Cro can physically keep up with any NFL receiver. At 27 years old, he has lots of tread left on the tires. With 54 starts under his belt, he’s got tons of experience. Yet, his wildly inconsistent play, and his legendary lack of focus, make him a big gamble. His PFF grades don’t quite tell the story: –0.5 overall, +0.2 coverage, +2.7 run support, and a painful 7 penalties called in about 950 snaps.

For the real story, I look at the week-to-week. Strongly negative the first three games (-0.3, –2.5, –4.2). Then an amazing three-game stretch (+1.4, +4.7, +2.2). Then, five games where he didn’t move the needle either way; all of his grades until Week 12 were between +1.0 and –1.0. Over the last four regular season games he played, (missed one) and three playoff games, he turned in four negative games, one positive, and two neutral. If you look at his 2009, it’s the same wild story. His 2008 . . . well, that’s a red-soaked negative bloodbath.

Cromartie and Ndamukong Suh stirred the Twitter pot a bit when Suh noted NFL Live suggest Cromartie should go to the Lions, and Cro said he’d “heard that also.” I can’t say Cro fits my idea of the Schwartz ideal, but his run support grades are much better than I expected, and he has the pure size/speed/cover-skill combination the Lions just don’t have right now. First choice? Maybe not, but he’s got to be kept in mind.

Eric Wright’s inclusion on this list may surprise some, as the Browns’ 2007 2nd-round pick actually received death threats over his perceived poor play last season. PFF graded him poorly indeed, with a –4.3 overall. His coverage mark was a rotten –11.9, second-worst in the NFL. However, Wright intrigues me for several reasons: first, he’s 5’-10”, 190, so a decently-sized fellow. Second, was graded +3.3 in pass rush, third-best in the NFL, and +4.7 in run support, 12th-best in the NFL.

It’s true, Wright was burned for 6 TDs, and he allowed opposing quarterbacks a fifth-worst 121.5 passer rating. But he’s clearly physically gifted, and at 25 still quite young. I also identified a trend with the PFF data . . .

In 2008, Wright had the eighth-best overall cornerback PFF grade. Over 1052 snaps, he turned in an +11.1 rating, despite a –1.1 coverage mark. His run support and pass rush made such an impact, he was the only corner in the top 25 with an even slightly negative coverage mark. He played every snap at left CB. In 2009, he flip-flopped between right and left corner all season long, and his performances were uneven. At work for a whopping 1106 snaps, thrown at 89 times, Wright turned in an overall grade 0f –0.5.

In 2010, Wright played left corner exclusively, until he suffered a bone bruise and got moved in to nickel. He struggled all year long, turning in mostly neutral grades, plus four negatives and a single positive. Oddly, his best performance of the year was in Week 2 (+2.9), and his worst was Week 3 (-4.4) . . . what I’m driving at here is that Wright is a young, talented player with a lot of experience, and he’s proven to be exceptional—truly exceptional—at a couple different dimensions of his position. It’s true that the one exception, coverage, is the one we’re really looking for, but if he’s available for peanuts, he’s exactly the kind of reclamation project the Lions do brilliantly with.

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Are the Lions on Nnamdi’s Short List?

So NFL.com analyst Gil Brandt said the Lions are a serious contender for the services of Nnamdi Asomugha:

“I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they make a big play for Asomugha,” Brandt said. “And I think he would consider the situation in Detroit and playing for Jim Schwartz, who has won the respect of his team. A cornerback’s best friend is a great defensive line, and right now the Lions have a pretty good group of defensive linemen.”

Predictably, the Lions-y corners of the Interwebs (and Twitter) caught fire with the idea that Detroit could make Nnamdi’s shortlist. Now, the last time Brandt spouted off about the Lions, he boldly predicted the Lions’ draft strategy . . . and was spot on:

“Everybody seems to think it’s an offensive lineman,” Brandt said. “I have a little bit of a connection with your head coach there (Jim Schwartz), and I don’t think that they will take an offensive lineman. I personally don’t know who it’s going to be, but I think it’s probably going to be a defensive player.”

Now, I’ve gone on the record on this before. I believe Nnamdi Asomugha would be a perfect fit for the Lions’ defense, and—whether or not Chris Houston sticks around—plays a position where the Lions need to acquire a starter. There’s no doubt that he’d be a perfect complement to the Silver Rush; the fearsome pass rush coming from the defensive line would shorten the time he needs to apply his blanketing coverage—and his coverage would allow the rush more time to strike home. The pick package the Lions offered to Arizona for the chance to draft Patrick Peterson shows how much they’d love to add a big, fast, physical cover corner—so could it happen?

It's time to say hi to our long lost friend, Cap Space. Remember Cap Space? He always used to show up whenever we’d talk football, and now it’s time to get reacquainted with him. Nnamdi Asomugha is going to want to blow out the curve in salary—and while the Fords haven’t shied away from writing checks their front office men ask them to write, you’re talking about an enormous investment in a 30-year-old player at a position that Schwartz hasn’t traditionally valued.

The identity of this team is a high-powered offense paired with a world-devouring defensive line; that’s where the Lions have consistently spent their money and picks over the past three seasons. They may well be about to let Chris Houston, a productive young veteran they acquired for peanuts, walk out the door, if he asks for more than they think he’s worth. Would they really break the bank for 30-year-old Nnamdi, even if he’s one of the best corners in the world? I don’t think so.

Now. We all thought we had the Lions’ draft plans figured out, and they completely threw us a curveball. It could well be that Gunther Cunningham shows up on Nnamdi’s doorstep at midnight with a basket of summer sausage or something, who knows. For now though, look for the Lions to set their sights a little lower. Honestly, I think I’d rather have Chris Houston and Antonio Cromartie than Nnamdi Asomugha and, likely, Nate Vasher.

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Old Mother Hubbard: Shopping for Need, Talent, Impact, Patrick Peterson, etc.

Just after the regular season ended, I wrote a piece called "On the Instant Impact NFL Rookie." I was trying to make a few key points. First, that college coaches now prefer to schematically maximize players' raw natural gifts, rather than slowly build positional technique and craft. Second, that these rawer players are being asked to step in and start as professionals earlier than ever--and given up on before they have a chance to develop. Finally, even when lighting does strike, it doesn't always translate into long-term success. You should read the whole article, because I meant it, but here's the upshot:

Not every good player is an instant-impact player. Not every instant-impact player evolves into a Hall of Famer. “Great for a rookie” is only “decent” overall. As the Lions round the bend into this draft season, they do so with only a few pressing needs. I trust the Lions leadership not to reach for those needs, but I’m cautioning us as fans to do the same. As this roster matures, the Lions should indeed be drafting to develop, not to start; the second- or third-round pick may not start right away and that’s okay. The likes of Sammie Hill will have to hustle to make the team, and that’s okay. The Lions have a much bigger need for a Mike Williams type, who slowly develops into a quality starter, than a Michael Clayton—who set the world on fire in his rookie year, and has barely moved the needle since.

In the 2011 draft, the Lions snagged three outstanding talents who will rotate in at positions of strength--rather than start from Day one at positions of weakness. With no free agency to this point, and murky prospects thereof going forward, Lions began to panic that they'd be stuck watching the same dire back seven . . . maybe even a worse one, without FA-to-be Chris Houston. Last night, Jason LaCanfora reported that the Lions explored moving up to the top of the draft to address their most immediate need—cornerback—and teh Twitterz asploded.

It's true, I did that the Lions need two corners in this draft. I do see a need for an immediate challenger for Nate Vasher at the #2 spot, as well as a developmental corner who'll be two-to-three years away from seeing heavy rotation. I was thinking that challenger-for-#2 could be Prince Amukamara with the 13th pick, or a second-rounder like Ras-I Dowling. However, it's clear that the Lions saw only one corner in this draft as a possible immediate starter: Patrick Peterson.

I told Wade at The Honolulu Blue that I didn't think the Lions could do this deal, because they didn't have enough ammo to move up as far as they needed to--not without making it, essentially, a one- or two-man draft plus a seventh-rounder. Sure, the Lions would dramatically upgrade at a position of pressing need, but it would mean missing out on adding either (or both) of the immediate needs they addressed--not to mention all of the immediate and developmental needs they didn't address.

Through the runup to the draft, I'd noticed the Lions’ active search for a change-of-pace power back conflicted with my understanding of their approach. With all the high-priced, high-powered skill position talent they'd collected, why on Earth would they take carries and catches away from them so some fifth-round rookie could pound it into the line a few times? It seemed like a cavemanesque "you gotta move the pile, hurr hurr" capitulation to football orthodoxy, way out of character with The Grandmaster we've come to know and love.

Turns out, the Lions never had any intention of giving precious reps to an unremarkable player. They replaced the Kevin Smith/Maurice Morris/Aaron Brown/Stefan Logan platoon with a dynamic talent many rated the second-best back available--and at a lower position on the board than most thought he'd go at. He meets the immediate need of a change-of-pace back, and has the potential to be half of a long-term star tandem with Jahvid Best.

Same goes for wide receiver: the Lions had need of a field stretcher who could open up space for Burleson, Pettigrew, and Scheffler—and draw coverage away from Megatron. I thought maybe the Lions would target a fifth- or sixth-rounder like USC (and Muskegon’s) Ronald Johnson, since there were more pressing needs. But again, RoJo wasn’t going to pull any coverage off of Megatron, not for a couple of years. Instead, the Lions got Titus Young—again, an impact player who meets the immediate need at third WR, but will have a permanent role in this offense for years to come.

This morning, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reported that the Lions offered Arizona their first-, second-, and fourth-round picks to move up and get Peterson. The Cardinals said no. This should give you an idea of A) how pressing the need is at cornerback, B) what they thought of Peterson’s ability to fill it, and C) how skimpy of a draft class this would have been if the Lions had sweetened the pot until the Cardinals said “yes.”

Again, I know the OMHs aren't complete yet, but here is the Lions' updated shopping list:

• A power back who can complement—and serve as an insurance policy for—Jahvid Best.
• A receiver who can stretch coverage downfield.
• an impact starting center for 2012 and beyond.
• An impact two-way defensive end to rotate soon, and develop for 2012.
• A credible backup middle linebacker.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB ready to start right away.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB to rotate soon, and develop for 2012.
• An athletic cover corner, ready to take over one side in 2012.
• If Chris Houston leaves, a complete two-way corner, ready to start right away.

If the Lions had sweetened the pot by upgrading that fourth-rounder to the third-rounder, those top two lines wouldn’t have been crossed out—and, at best, only one of the other ones would have. All of those needs would be left to fill in free agency (and of course, many of them can’t or won’t be) . . . or for next year. The Martin Mayhew Mantra has always been “right player at the right price,” and that sticking with that philosophy no matter what would serve the Lions well. Remember when the Lions refused to give the Steelers anything more than a seventh-round pick for Larry Foote?  “BUT C’MONNNN!!!” we all said, “THE NEED IS SO GREAT! LARRY FOOTE’S SO GREAT! IT’S JUST A SIXTH-ROUNDER!”

Yeah, well, Larry Foote was okay for one year on a totally horrible Lions team. He was never the long-term answer—and that sixth-round pick became Chris Houston, who is the Lions’ only legitimate starting cornerback. The Lions needed Chris Houston last year (and this year!) more than they ever needed Larry Foote—and the Lions need Nick Fairley, Titus Young, and Mikel LeShoure for the next five years more than they need Patrick Peterson now.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,2011 nfl draft,team needs,patrick peterson,arizona cardinals

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Cornerbacks

Now, we get to the heart of the matter. As usual, a disclaimer: this review is working off of Pro Football Focus player grades and statistics;  CB play is the hardest to assess from TV broadcast footage. Figuring out a player’s true assignment, and assessing how well he carries it out, takes a lot more education and intuition when it comes to DB play than line play. That having been said, I think this chart matches up well with our armchair understanding of the Lions’ CB situation:

The purple line with the ridiculous overall grade is Antoine Winfield, who—unlike most other top PFF graders—has an exceptional mark in every single area of play. He’s ranked in the top ten of 100 qualifying cornerbacks in every graded dimension. At the bottom is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who despite half his last name isn’t the player is cousin is. A strongly negative coverage grade, combined with 8 called penalties (one declined/offset) make him the low man on the cornerback totem pole.

Then again, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie played the second-highest number of snaps in the NFL, over 1,130. The only corner who played more snaps than Cromartie was Cortland Finnegan, with just over 1,200 . . . and he had the lowest coverage grade in the NFL, –13. This suggests that the more snaps a corner gets, the worse his coverage grade is bound to be—even though the PFF folks normalize the final grades by snap count. Just to be sure, I ran a regression:

Nope, no correlation. I think the effect in play is the old line, “You have to be a pretty good pitcher to lose 20 games.” Maybe Cortland Finnegan and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie aren’t great cover guys—but they’re far and away the best corners on their team, and they kept getting run out against their opponents’ best wideouts. Even normalized for snap counts, though, they simply didn’t grade out like KC’s Brandon Carr (+5.4) or New England’s Devin McCourty (+9.4), players with similar snap counts but much better coverage grades.

Lions’ best corner, far and away is Chris Houston—but the PFF grades don’t reflect it. Houston played over 900 snaps; the only Lion above the league average of 750. Though near NFL average in pass rush and run support, Houston’s coverage grade was decidedly below (-4.5), and his five called penalties weren’t great either. From the grades alone, the 5’-11”, 178-pound Houston turned in a subpar performance in 2010. However, I dug a little deeper.

Houston was thrown at 85 times, once every 10.7 snaps; that exactly matches the NFL average. Sixty percent of those passes were caught, which matches up to the average of 60.2. However, he allowed only 10.6 yards per catch—yards less than the average. His TD allowed/INT ratio was near average (3/1 vs. 3/2), his passes defensed were above average (9 vs. 6), and his NFL passer rating allowed was slightly better than average (85.5 vs. 88.0).

The overall picture this paints is, well, average. Compared to every other starting, or heavily-rotated, cornerback, Chris Houston was just about average. That’s better than any Lions cornerback has been in a while, especially wire to wire. He also had some great individual games, turning in a +1.8 (+1.2 coverage) in the first Green Bay game, and +3.2 (+2.3 coverage) against Washington. Unfortunately, he did poorly against the Cowboys and Bucs, and was absolutely abused by the Patriots (-4.5 coverage).

Bottom Line: With a full #1 starter’s workload, Chris Houston performed at an average, maybe just-below-average, level for an NFL starter. Considering the pittance the Lions paid to get him, performance like that is impressive. As the Lions’ #1 corner, they should draft someone with flashier coverage skills to pair with him. As the Lions’ #2 corner, he’d be excellent. Further, he’s only 26—if the Lions can hold onto this likely RFA, he may continue to improve.

With just over 350 snaps and a –0.9 overall grade, Nathan Vasher is the best-graded Lion cornerback with a significant number of snaps. Snaps had been hard to come by for the 2005 Pro Bowler, and the Bears finally released Vasher a year ago. Despite his productive history, and that ESPN article suggesting he’d wind up as a starter somewhere soon, the 5’-11”, 185-pound Vasher was available for the Lions to sign when the regular season started.

He didn’t see much action until the last four weeks. 250 of his snaps came in those last four games, where he barely came off the field. When he did, he turned in two very good performances, and two not-so-good ones. He turned in coverage grades of +1.2 and +2.8 against Green Bay and Miami, alternated with –0.9 and –2.2 coverage marks against Tampa Bay and Miami. What it all averages out to is “average.”

When we look at the statistical metrics that PFF charts, Vasher was thrown at 31 times, and only 16 were completed; an excellent 51.6%. Though he gave up yards at a 13.1 YpC clip, had just one INT, and defensed only one pass, Vasher’s Allowed Passer Rating was a miniscule 70.6; 14th-best in the NFL!

Bottom Line: Nathan Vasher is only 29, and proved he can still play corner in the NFL. The Lions re-signed him to a one-year deal, and he’ll be in the mix in the summer. If Houston sticks around, I like him as a #2 for a rookie to challenge. If Houston leaves, Vasher replaces Houston as the cross-your-fingers-and-hope-this-guy-returns-to-form #1 corner.

One of the more outrageous moves Josh McDaniels did in his short time with the keys to the Denver franchise, was trading 2009 second-round pick Alphonso Smith, who he’d dealt a 2010 first-rounder to acquire, to the Lions for Dan Gronkowski. Smith, a 5’-9”, 190-pound fireplug who some thought would be a great fit for the Lions at the slot that ended up being Louis Delmas, was disappointing in his rookie year—but to dish a player you burned a first and second-rounder to acquire after one season? In a position that traditionally requires a year or two of development?

Sure enough, Smith flashed some of the potential that caused the Broncos to go crazy for him; leading the Lions’ corners in INTs with 5 (in fact, he was the only to get more than one). However, Smith also flashed the mental mistakes that drove the Broncos crazy. Smith looked like a fool in key moments against the Patriots and Jets, and it cost the Lions two ENORMOUS possible (probable, in the Jets’ case) wins. However, Smith has a very bright future on this team . . . as a slot corner.

In the first three games, Smith's overall grades were +1.6, +1.8, and +0.2, influnced by very strong performances against the run, and in pass rush, and neutral pass coverage grades. Unfortunately, when the Lions moved him to the starting right cornerback spot, he turned in a poor game. They put him back in the slot against St. Louis, and he had one of his best coverage games all year. Then he went back outside, and was either neutral (WAS, NYJ, @DAL) or a disaster (@BUF, NEP, CHI). The only exception to this was the Giants game, when Smith started at right corner and received, by far, his best coverage grade of the year (+3.0), while also turning in, by far, his worst effort against the run (-1.3).

Bottom Line: Alphonso Smith is a gifted natural slot cornerback, with the tenacity to play well against the run, and even be dangerous as a pass rusher. His instincts and hands are enough to make him a ballhawk, but his repeated brain farts make him a liability as an outside cornerback. Perhaps time and development will iron this out, but for now pencil him in as a multi-year “starting” nickel back.

As for the rest, Aaron Berry and Jack Williams are talented youngsters who lost the entire season, or nearly so, to injury. Prince Miller barely played, but has been tendered a contract for next year—as has Paul Pratt, a practice-squadder from last season.

SHOPPING LIST: As it stands, Chris Houston, Nathan Vasher, and Alphonso Smith performed like a just below-average-but-not-awful starting trio (even though they didn’t play as a triumvirate much this year). However, Vasher has already worn out his welcome at a team he was a Pro Bowler for; he’s not likely to be a long-term fix. If Houston stays, the Lions need to draft a cover corner, a guy who can challenge Vasher by the end of his first season, and challenge Houston by the beginning of his third. If Houston leaves, the Lions need to acquire a starter of Houston’s caliber, and draft that developmental cornerback.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,cornerbacks,chris houston,nathan vasher,alphonso smith,nfl draft,team needs

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Tinderbox: Impending Doom

I’m currently working on the Watchtower for the Rams game, and I can’t get away from a sense of impending doom.  No, the numbers don’t look that bad—in fact, I have no logical reason for this whatsoever.  It’s just . . . well, this one was supposed to be the patsy, the gimme, the sure thing.  And, well, I don’t know if you folks remember, but the Rams were supposed to be the patsy last season too, and, well . . .

Impending doom.

Okay!  Enough of that; let’s keep this fire going.

Remember that time Alphonso Smith was a guy the Lions might have taken with the second pick in second round of last season's draft, but instead they took Louis Delmas so Denver traded their first-round pick this year to take Alphonso Smith instead, and then the Broncos decided they didn’t like him or something and traded us Alphonso Smith for Dan Gronkowski?  Well, Shawn Windsor of the Freep writes that Smith is pushing for a starting spot now, much as if the Lions had taken him in the second round to begin with.

If Smith and Houston continue to play well, it will be a huge boon to the defense—and we may have two starters at cornerback that start next year, as well.  If my research is correct, that’s the first time that’s happened since the Bryant Westbrook/Terry Fair combination, more than a decade ago.

Tom Kowalski writes that Sam Bradford is, if not actually scared, well aware of the heat the Lions’ pass rush can generate:

"To be honest, I think that it's one of the better defenses that we've seen,'' Bradford said. "They're very good up front. I think they cause a lot of problems with what they do up front, with some of the pressures that they bring."

People: the Lions are tied for fifth in the NFL in sacks, with thirteen.  That is HALF of their 2009 total!  They’re fourth in sacks-per-dropback, with ten.  Of course, they’re still 30th in opponent yards-per-attempt, and 28th in opponent passer rating—this is still not a good pass defense.  But pass rush?  Yes, and the Lions will be facing their best-yet combination of sackable quarterback, and porous offensive line.  That, at least, is something to get excited about.

 

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,st. louis rams,sam bradford,alphonso smith

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The Third Time’s the Charm? Dre Bly is a Lion, Again

The first time I wanted Dré Bly to be a Lion was in 1999.  Recent top draft picks Terry Fair and Kevin Abrams were on the roster—but neither seemed to be on track for stardom, and the Lions have always needed as much cornerback help as they could get.  Besides, Bly’s resume as a playmaker was absolutely astonishing.  From the Dré Bly Wikipedia entry:

In his redshirt freshman season at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), Bly received all-American honors. He is only one of five players in NCAA history to achieve this honor as a freshman (Tony Dorsett, Herschel Walker, Bjorn Merten, and Marshall Faulk being the others) [1].

Bly was the only football player in UNC and ACC history to receive consensus 1st team All-America honors three times in his college career. In his sophomore year, he was one of three finalists for the Bronko Nagurski National Defensive Player of the Year Award. Bly held the ACC record for career interceptions (20).

Regrettably, the Lions did not draft Bly.  They traded at least their second- and fifth-round pick (historians disagree) to the Dolphins to move up to the 27th slot.  Once there, they took mountainous right tackle Aaron Gibson of Wisconsin.  Bly and his surprisingly slow 40 time (4.51) slid into the second round, where the St. Louis Rams pulled the trigger at the 41 slot.

The second time I wanted Dré Bly to become a Lion was in 2003, when his four-year rookie deal expired.  After two years straight years of riding the pine for a Super Bowl team, Bly finally got his shot at the big time in 2001, and didn’t disappoint.  In 16 games, and 4 starts, Bly had 6 interceptions, and returned two of them for scores.  Bly also saw extensive use as a punt returner starting in ‘01.

In ‘02, Bly ascended to a full-time starting role—and while his INT numbers dipped to 2, he defensed 18 passes, forced 4 fumbles, and recorded 54 solo tackles.  In short, as they say in the business, he made himself a lot of money.  To be specific, he made a lot of William Clay Ford’s money: a five-year, twenty-four million dollar contract, six million of which came up front.  I’d gotten my wish.

On the surface, Bly’s four years here were a success: 19 interceptions, 38 passes defensed, and two Pro Bowl appearances.  Yet, injury hampered his play; he missed nine games in four years.  Further, his gambling style resulted in negative plays, as well as positive ones.  Here’s a notable one, from his days in Denver:

Of course, before Bly was traded to the Broncos for George Foster and Tatum “Boxer Thief” Bell, he took a stand for recently-fired coach Steve Mariucci:

"If we'd had production on offense, in particular the quarterback position, Mooch wouldn't have been fired.  If Jeff Garcia hadn't gotten hurt, we wouldn't be in this position today.  Mooch wouldn't have gotten fired.  We're all at fault, but I just feel like Joey [Harrington]'s been here four years, and being the No. 3 pick in the draft, he hasn't given us anything.  He hasn't given us what the third pick in the draft should give us."

For this, Bly took quite a bit of heat.  After all, here he was, taking a public and private stand against the team’s quarterback, blaming him for their coach’s dismissal.  Right or wrong (and, in hindsight, he was more right than wrong), that’s something you just don’t do.  He bounced from Detroit to Denver, then from Denver to San Francisco—and, in the words of Eminem and Phil Zaroo, we forgot about Dré.

The third time I wanted Dré Bly to be a Lion, I didn’t even know it; I’d merely been calling for the Lions to add a decent, veteran cover corner.  Well, late on Friday, the Lions announced they’d signed Bly to a two-year deal.  Quoth the ever-quotable cornerback:

I feel like I played my best ball here in Detroit.  I feel like it's home and to come back and have the chance to finish my career where I played my best ball -- where I feel like I'm part of the community -- is a great feeling.

Broncos beat writer Frank Schwab wryly noted on Twitter that having the chance to draw an NFL paycheck must also be a great feeling for Bly.  The results of his stints in Denver and San Francisco were mixed, but unlike here, they were remembered more for the negative plays than the positive ones.

For what it’s worth, Niners fans seem sad to see him go; they see the secondary as a potential problem, and Bly as a good nickel/decent #2.  Top-notch 49ers writer Matt Maiocco said that Bly’s lack of physicality was a poor fit for their scheme—and according to Maiocco’s team sources, Bly’s attitude and declining speed also factored into his release.

What does this all mean for the Lions?  Bly is, by far, the most experienced corner on the roster—and, presuming he hasn’t declined too much, should still be one of the most physically talented, as well.  Jim Schwartz does prefer a more aggressive, jamming cover corner—but all of the Lions’ current corners fit that mold, and they’re either too inexperienced or insufficiently skilled to play deep man coverage.  That may be all that Bly can do at this point, cover a receiver downfield—but it’s the one thing the Lions needed most.

I have no idea whether Bly will enter the season as the #1 corner, or if he’ll be cut before the season starts.  I could believe either scenario, but I’d suspect something in between, leaning more towards “Bly starts at least two games for the Lions by the end of the season.”  No matter what happens, though, this is a halfway-decent attempt at addressing the Lions’ biggest flaw, and in July that’s difficult to do.  Here’s hoping, indeed, that the third time is the charm.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,dré bly,san francisco 49ers

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