Old Mother Hubbard: The Defensive Ends

From last year’s Old Mother Hubbarding of the Lions defensive ends:

Cliff Avril was pigeonholed by most as a 3-4 ROLB, and I’m certain he could shine in that role. But he’s developed into the fast, athletic 4-3 rush end Rod Marinelli thought he could be. Avril will never be a 270-plus-pound, two-way monster—but he’s already an impact defender, top-flite pass rusher, and a huge part of this defense going forward. Signing this RFA to a long-term deal must be a top priority.

Kyle Vanden Bosch is the ultimate leader, a consummate professional—and as a player, the yang to Cliff Avril’s yin. Had he stayed healthy, he would have had seven sacks and fifteen QB hits, more than acceptable standalone production, besides the undeniable halo effect. Unfortunately, he’s 32, and recovering from a major neck injury. The Lions need to find a starting, impact, two-way end to replace him by the 2012 season.

Lawrence Jackson produced like an above-average starter in heavy rotation, and fron Week 10 on was one of the better 4-3 DEs in the game. I’ll hold off on anointing him the starter of the future for now, because I’d like to see more consistency—but there’s no doubt he’d be the perfect physical fit for the void KVB will eventually leave.

Willie Young is a developmental prospect with a very lean frame, a long way to go, and an undeniable knack for playing football. I hope he has a place on the roster for next season.

And then, the shopping list:

The Lions will need to find an impact two-way defensive end, ready to replace KVB as a starter by the 2012 season. Lawrence Jackson has the potential to be that end. Cliff Avril is an RFA who must be re-signed to a long-term deal. The Lions may look for a developmental speed-first end behind Avril, especially if Willie Young does not take major strides in the offseason.

It's important to restate the design goals of the Lions defensive line: to get consistent, excellent pressure from the without assist from the blitz. To have a pair of bookend DEs rushing from wide alignments, fast enough to turn the corner and strong enough to set the edge against runs and screens. To have two defensive tackles who can rush the passer up the middle of the pocket, one of whom can also collapse the running lane between himself and the nine-technique DE. Most importantly, to have depth all across the line, making sure the above design requirements are fulfilled for four quarters each of sixteen (-plus) games.

Now, that in mind, let’s look at the data:

For the second straight year, Philadelphia’s Trent Cole is the highest overall PFF-graded 4-3 DE. With the #1 overall pass-rush grade of +40.4, and the 11th-best run-stopping grade at +10.3, Cole fulfilled his responsibilities in the Eagles’ own wide-9 alignment perfectly. His two-way dominance was so complete, he kept his top overall mark despite being called for seven penalties in 640 snaps. Interestingly, Cole’s 1.00 +WPA is only ranked 23rd, and his 32.3 +EPA is 27th. For all his consistently positive play, Cole didn’t help the Eagles win much. May have something to do with the rest of the defense behind him.

Bringing up the rear is the New York Giants’ Dave Tollefson, whose –9.4 rush grade and –5.5 run-stopping grade put him at the bottom. His 0.36 and 10.0 +WPA and +EPA rank him 79th and 86th, respectively, out of 125 defensive ends ranked by Advanced NFL Stats.

Important note: Pro Football Focus separates linemen into DT/NTs, 4-3 DEs, and 3-4 DEs. Advanced NFL Stats has one bucket each for DTs and DEs. The two sites do not always agree on who is what.

Cliff Avril is another example of why I added+WPA and +EPA to these radar charts. When you add up all his positive, negative, and nothing-in-particular plays, he’s an average NFL defensive end. His +6.6 overall PFF grade almost exactly matches the NFL average of +6.5. That includes a pretty heavy ding for 11 assessed penalties, but a major boost from his linebacker-like coverage skills (+5.5). His pass rush grade is solid, ranked 19th overall at +11, but confusingly low for a guy who had 12 sacks, 8 hits, and 37 pressures on 822 snaps (one of those pass rush events per 14.7 snaps, 15th-best rate in the NFL).

For comparison, Trent Cole had 11 sacks, 11 QB hits, and 44 pressures on 640 snaps, one every 9.55 snaps (2nd-best). For further comparison, Jared Allen had 24 sacks, 8 QB hits, and 34 pressures on 1044 snaps—one every 15.8 snaps. Just putting that out there.

So from looking at just the PFF grades and stats, we’d mark Avril down as an average overall defensive end, pretty good at rushing the passer but otherwise mediocre. Then, we look at the +WPA and +EPA and whoa.

Avril’s +EPA is an excellent 45.1, 11th-best in the NFL; that’s well ahead of Cole’s 32.3 (Jason Pierre-Paul’s is tops at 83.4).  His +WPA is an outstanding 7th overall, at +1.45. The discrepancy comes from his impact plays: 4 passes defensed, 6 forced fumbles, 7 TFLs, and an interception. In terms of +WPA, it’s his knack for making big plays at the right times. He helped the Lions’ win-loss bottom line 45% more than Trent Cole helped the Eagles’.

Just as with the defensive tackles, we see Lions defensive ends—as a rule—make big plays when they matter most, far out of proportion to the rest of their production. Avril, though, takes that to the extreme. Keep in mind, he’s doing it from the left side, too: going against bigger/stronger right tackles and often in the quarterback’s field of vision. Imagine if he were working the blind side . . .

Bottom Line: Cliff Avril, in this system, plays like a top ten defensive end. If he is not re-signed, his production and playmaking ability will not be easily replaced—and his production and playmaking ability is essential to the success of the defense. His re-signing must be the Lions’ top priority.

Willie Young, a.k.a. The Great Willie Young, might indeed be the son of a panther god. His +11.7 overall PFF grade would be the highest of any Lions DE, if his 259 snaps weren’t just a few too few to qualify. His +10.2 pass rush grade is just behind Avril’s +11.0, and his run-stopping grade is far superior, +3.7 to –2.5. In a huge surprise, the not-as-spindly-as-he-used-to-be Young’s run defense was better than all but Lawrence Jackson’s.

Again, this is on limited snaps—and that cuts both ways. Young makes fantastic plays whenever he’s in the game, but he’s in the game most often when the situation is ripe for him to make plays. His 3 sacks, 4 hits, and 19 pressures put his snaps-per-pass-rush at 9.96 which would be third-best in the NFL if he’d played just thirty or so more snaps.

I believe that’s at least part of Trent Cole’s story above: he played 182 fewer snaps than Cliff Avril, and I’d be willing to bet a good chunk of “negative” plays were eliminated because of it. It’s a lot easier to be great against the run when you only have to do it on 2nd- and 3rd-and-long . . .

Still, Young’s +11.5 EPA and +0.47 +WPA speak to just how effective he was when he was in. The average +WPA for qualifying DEs was 0.61, meaning that in just 259 snaps Willie Young helped the Lions win almost as much as an average starter. Nobody put much stock in a sub-260-pound all-legs-and-no-torso seventh rounder developing into a vital contributor, but Young’s already there in just his second year. How much better can he get?

Bottom Line: Willie Young has proven his worth as a rotational end, and should be a big part of the picture for 2012, his make-or-break year. If he can shoulder an increased workload without his rate stats falling off, he’ll be every bit the player Cliff Avril has been. That is an enormous “if.”

Lawrence Jackson had an outstanding 2011, producing at the same level as Avril and KVB when he got reps. The natural big-bodied run-stuffer Avril isn’t, he seemed destined to take over on the left side as Avril transitioned to the right rush end spot.

Instead, Jackson played almost exclusively on the right side, in relief of KVB. He struggled against Tampa Bay, but had strongly positive games in Weeks 2-5. His season crescendoed on Monday Night Football, with a +3.4 overall grade (1 sack, 1 hit, 2 pressures on just 31 snaps). After that game, however, Jackson had three flat games before Week 10—where he graded out very well and suffered a deep thigh bruise that would bench him until Week 16.

You can’t help but feel like Jackson missed his opportunity to stake his claim as the Lions’ third-now-and-second-soon DE. However, Jackson’s 18.4 +EPA is a very positive sign; he nearly matched the NFL average of 21.07 with just 341 snaps. His 0.71 +WPA is an even better one: with less than half the snaps of a typical starting DE to work with, Lo-Jack contributed more to the Lions’ winning games than some other teams’ starters . . . unfortunately, that includes the Lions’ Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Bottom Line: Lawrence Jackson had a chance to prove to the Lions they were set at this position for years to come. Instead, his deep thigh bruise—and midseason lull—leaves us no closer to knowing if he’ll be ready to step in for KVB as a full-time starter when the time comes. However, he also flashed enough of that Secret Superstar form to prove he can play as well as anyone in the NFL when he’s “on.” Like Willie Young, 2012 will be his make-or-break year.

Kyle Vanden Bosch had a fantastic bounceback year, right? With 8 sacks, 6 QB hits, and 26 pressures, this was his best statistical year since the glory days of 2008. Unfortunately, he had a beefy 777-snap workload, meaning he only generated pass rush on one of every 19.4 snaps—35th-best in the NFL and below the 19.0 NFL average.

Vanden Bosch's -11.3 overall PFF grade is absolutely mortifying; it's the fourth-worst in the NFL. He was graded at –1.9 in the pass rush, definitely below the NFL average of +2.5. His run-stopping grade, however, was through the basement: –7.9, worse than everyone but St. Louis’s Chris Long. We saw this time and time again in the games: Vanden Bosch overpursuing like a maniac, and opposing teams scheming to take advantage.

Vanden Bosch improved in this area throughout the season. He got dinged with strong negative run-defense grades in Weeks 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7, but only once more after that. Unfortunately, that coincided with a huge dropoff in his pass-rush productivity. He had only one negative pass rush grade in the first ten games, then was in the red for Weeks 12, 13, 15, and 16.

KVB is the only Lion DE not to add Win Probability far beyond what his snap count and production would project: Despite those 8 sacks, he almost exactly met the NFL average with 0.58 +WPA. His 26.30 +EPA is solidly above-average, but that just highlights the fact that he got it done more often when it didn’t matter than when it did.

Bottom Line: Kyle Vanden Bosch’s time as a premier two-way defensive end is over. His heart, desire, toughness, and leadership are unquestionable, but he’s simply not getting it done as well or as frequently as the rest of the defensive ends. Without finding the fountain of youth, he cannot start and play the majority of every game in 2012 or the defense will suffer for it.

SHOPPING LIST: The Detroit Lions have some serious decisions to make at the Defensive End position, and have little information to go on. Kyle Vanden Bosch must recover his youthful form or play a reduced role in 2012. Cliff Avril is a proven game-changer but not under contract. Willie Young and Lawrence Jackson have played extremely well in limited time but are not proven full-time performers.

If the Lions have complete faith in Young, Jackson, or both they are set for defensive ends. If not, they need to acquire a defensive end who can step in and play at least as well as Vanden Bosch, if not better, in 2012.

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Contrition & Forgiveness: The Cusp of A NFL CBA

If all the reports are to be believed, the players and owners are within days, perhaps hours, of agreeing on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. All outstanding lawsuits will be settled, all remaining hatchets will be buried, the NFLPA* will recertify itself as a union, and by week’s end the engines of professional football will crank up and roar to life.

I’ve been mulling this for quite a while. I, as much as any single-team independent blogger, have spilled barrels of ink into the rift between players and owners. The first of those pieces, “The NFL, the NFLPA, the CBA, and Their Fans,” laid out all the issues as I understood them, and my feelings as both a true-blue fan and an educated chronicler:

Pushing Thirty Minivan Me is just that: pushing thirty with a minivan. I’m not pushing fifty with a Harvard MBA, and I’m not pushing twenty with a Rolls Royce Drophead Coupe. I’m not in a position to bear investment risk, or rake in dividends off the profit. I’m the schmuck in line at the gate, ready to part with fistfuls of hard-earned jack I should spend on more important things. I’m the tool with a family of five, all dressed in jerseys on gameday. I’m the fool at the bottom of the pyramid scheme, the rube all this is built upon, the mark they’re all getting rich off of . . .

. . . and I’m the kid in front of the TV set, eyes as big as saucers, watching Barry run. Owners, players, coaches, front office, staff, agents, flaks, and all the rest: please. Remember me. Remember us. Remember who really bears the financial burden here—and ultimately, who really holds the cards. Baseball, 1994? Hockey, 2005? We are the golden goose, and you have your hands around our neck.

Many radical outcomes were foretold: an 18-game regular season, the “unpinning” of the salary cap from revenue, even abolition of the draft! There were frequent public spats between members of each side—even over issues like whether or not upcoming negotiations had been scheduled. The resultant bad blood between players and the league has been disturbing (case in point: James Harrison’s comments about Commissioner Goodell). Yet, soon that’s all supposed to be water under the bridge, as the John Hancocks are applied to a new CBA.

Who won? The biggest winners were the lawyers, and big business (thanks to that 8th Circuit ruling expanding the presumed boundaries of the Norris-LaGuardia Act). The next biggest winners are Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith, each of whom was hired to deliver in this moment. To a lesser extent, everyone who loves the NFL, or makes a living off the NFL, wins: we’ll get our full annual recommended amount of football.

In terms of semantics, the players nearly ran the table. The CBA will arise from a settlement of the Brady v. NFL lawsuit, as presided over by US District Court mediator Arthur Boylen—not collective bargaining sessions with FMCS Director George Cohen. They successfully maintained their decertified trade association status. They kept the money debate focused on a percentage of all monies coming in the door, rather than splitting the hairs of what money “counts” and what doesn’t.

Yet the result of all the semantics—and layoffs, and furloughs, and prematurely induced labors, and eight digits’ worth of lawyer bills—is a tune-up, not an overhaul. Players will receive an smaller piece of the biggest possible pie, continuing the trend started with the 2006 agreement. Rookie salaries will be reigned in, and the savings will go to active and retired veterans. Those retired veterans will be vastly better taken care of, player safety rules clarified, and player health benefits improved. In lieu of an 18-game regular season, there will be a weekly Thursday  Night package to wring more TV revenue out of the existing 16-game docket.

In short, the ultimate agreement will look like a very reasonable compromise; this is both good and bad. Good, because it should lay the foundation for another decade or two of labor peace. Bad, because it means the two sides were never really that far apart. All of the grandstanding and caterwauling, all of the doomsaying invective, the lockout and the lawsuit and all the bitter words, it all could have been avoided. I repeatedly begged both sides to do what it took to come to an agreement before the CBA expired—if for no other reason than to respect the investments of the millions of fans making them rich. But no, leverage was protected by any means necessary, and we’ll have a deal in late July that should have been struck in February.

Back in college, I studied an article by a dude named Francis Fukuyama called “The End of History?” Written at the close of the Cold War, it argued that liberal democratic governments, paired with market-based capitalist economies, were the culmination of human history. Once the entire world had converted to representative democracies, History—capital H, meaning the progress of humanity towards liberty and equality of opportunity—would end.

As an extension of this idea, some argued that the Cold War itself was History’s pause button. The two superpowers’ opposing ideologies were holding an entire world in thrall; other countries either aligned themselves with one side or felt immense pressure to do so. All that time the US and USSR stood at loggerheads, viewing the rest of the globe as a giant game of Reversi, and other nations’ political and economic development were stifled. Once the Soviet Union fell many democracies sprung up, China became an economic powerhouse, Korea and India started moving to the forefront of technology and industry, and now we’re in the midst of the Arab Spring.

TO BE CLEAR: I am not equivocating my stepfather’s service in Vietnam to my being really bummed about football. But, I can’t help but feel like the last seven months have been like that for NFL fans. There have been so many sacrifices by and of so many; people have lost their jobs over this. There have been so many feelings hurt, bad blood shared, and regrettable decisions made. Yet, in the aftermath, it feels like it was all a charade. The outcome was inevitable all along, and everyone will pretty much pick back up where they left off.

In light of that, I want to say a few things. First, to Commissioner Roger Goodell, and NFL PR folks Greg Aiello and Brian McCarthy: there were some times I abused the direct pipeline of Twitter. I crossed the line with my real-time emotions on more than one occasion. I’m sorry.

To NFLPA executive director for external affairs George Atallah, many thanks. You were open, honest, transparent, and accessible throughout the process—most especially to new-media types such as myself. I also thank DeMaurice Smith for delivering some classic quotes while defending the players’ interests well.

Special thanks go to the Lions. That includes the players who’ve taken time out to talk about the issues with me—Kyle Vanden Bosch, Lawrence Jackson, Cliff Avril, etc.—and members of the organization who’ve done the same, such as Director of Media Relations Matt Barnhardt. I come out of this experience more convinced than ever that the Lions are a great group of people led by a great group of people, and a classy organization from the top down.

All that’s left is for them to get on the field and play.

Technorati Tags: nfl,nfl collective bargaining agreement,nfl cba,roger goodell,george atallah,greg aiello,brian mccarthy,nfl lockout

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Three Cups Deep: Lions Leading the Way

During my lifetime, there have been plenty of moments when I’ve been proud to be a Lions fan. Rare, yes, and fleeting—but there have been times when I’ve been proud of the boys in Honolulu Blue, and their accomplishments. I can’t think of a time, before this administration, when I’ve been proud of the organization. The Lions have never been a team that “does things the right way,” that sets a standard for other teams. In fact, for most of my young life, the Lions were notorious penny-pinchers and hapless decision-makers. Whatever success they experienced on the field was in spite of ownership, in spite of the front office, and sometimes in spite of the coaching.

From 1967 until 1989, Russ Thomas was the GM, and his primary strength was negotiating great contracts (from the team’s perspective). His replacement, COO Chuck Schmidt, had trouble keeping great players around in the newfangled salary cap era. The Lions always seemed to be profitable first, and competitive when convenient. Barry Sanders retired because he couldn’t bring himself to again battle in the livery of a franchise that couldn’t win if it tried, and wasn’t trying. The Fords’ answer to that bitter rejection was to hire Matt Millen, and long let him reign.

But, for the first time in my memory, the Lions are at the head of the class when it comes to class. First, the Lions players are handling their business like true pros. Kevin Seifert wrote about former union rep Kyle Vanden Bosch, his value to the Lions, and his plans to keep his teammates primed for an awesome 2011. Dave Birkett’s story today has an awesome quote from KVB:

"There's the talk, 'Well, why are you doing something to help owners and stuff while you're locked out?' " Vanden Bosch said. "But at the same time selfishly, I want to have my best season next year. I want to make sure the guys on my d-line, we have the best unit in the league next year. And just, hypothetically, if we can't get together until the end of July or in August, I don't know that we can do that."

For the ownership’s part, they’re being open and honest with the fans—and not blaming the players one bit. The Lions sent a letter to season-ticket holders offering refunds, plus interest, if any games are missed. The official website posted a transcript of a con call of Lions President Tom Lewand; it contained zero percent kvetching about the union, and 100% focus on playing football—well—in 2011. Awesomely, Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio gave the Lions some rare dap for handling the situation with class:

That said, the fans have every right to be upset at one or both parties for failing to get a deal done, instead of trying to apply leverage in order to secure slightly “better” terms. Along they way, they’ve compromised their relationship to the point where some major feather unruffling needs to happen before the parties will agree on anything.

We credit the Lions for doing their part toward mending fences, by not further inflaming the situation with rhetoric aimed at getting the fans riled up against the players.

Best of all, Tom Lewand says he “gets it,” and unlike certain Commissioners I know, he really does:

"The bottom line is that they want us to play football and they're not interested in hearing about which side is posturing at the negotiating table or the court room, they're interested in watching Lions football. We understand that, we get it. And that's what we're focused on as well,'' Lewand said. "We want to play football. We want to build on the last four games of last year and build on the things we've been doing as an organization over the last two years. That's where the focus needs to be.''

There was a lot of hubbub last season about “proof” the Lions were on the right track. People wanted to see the Lions rack up a lot of Ws, to “prove” that Mayhew isn’t another Millen, and Lewand isn’t another Thomas, and Schwartz isn’t another Marinelli. The four-game win streak at the end of the year satisfied those folks, but not me. The Lions have put a few wins together several times in the last ten years.

To me, this is the proof. When the rest of the owners and players can’t agree on what they disagree on, Lions are jetting in from around the country to work out in Wixom together. While the rest of the teams are griping about the players not capitulating to the owners’ demands, the Lions’ brass sounds frustrated that they have to bother locking their guys out. Clearly, the Lions are a true team, from top to bottom, from GM to special teamers. They’re all completely focused on playing this year—because they believe in themselves, they believe in each other, and they know they’re going to be good.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,kyle vanden bosch,tom lewand,nfl lockout

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Defensive Ends

The Old Mother Hubbarding of the DTs got a bit of attention; I was even linked by ProFootballTalk. I’ve been a dedicated PFT reader for, like, ever, and secretly I’m over the moon about that—but I’ve decided to act like I’ve been there before.  So.

The Pro Football Focus data I’m using is widely misunderstood, so let me explain a couple of key points. First, the PFF data doesn’t measure pure talent. The final grade doesn’t mean that one player is “better” than another, just that they turned in a more effective performance, on a down-by-down basis. Second, PFF weighs penalties in the final grade—so Sammie Hill, who didn’t commit a penalty, graded out higher than Corey Williams, who was more effective, but flagged a ridiculous number of times.

Second, it’s my observation that PFF’s system rewards consistency. A player that repeatedly makes a positive impact (and is rarely a liability) will have a much higher final grade than a player who “swings for the fences,” makes a few spectacular plays, and is otherwise often ineffective . . . even if those few spectacular plays change the outcome of the game. Watching at home on TV, at full speed, we tend not to notice line play unless the results are spectacular—so a player who is always a little more effective than you think (like Sammie Hill) is going to grade out surprisingly well. Meanwhile, the home run hitters (like Ndamukong Suh) are going to grade out surprisingly poorly, since every time you notice them, they’re doing something awesome.

Sometimes, this leads to counterintuitive results. However, a lot of what’s really happening on the field is counterintuitive from a fan perspective. I’ve said before that watching film is the “red pill of fandom;” if you start doing it you learn the truth about what’s happening on the field . . . and you realize just how wrong most of the national football groupthink is. PFF is a group of dedicated football fanatics (like you and I) who spend outrageous amounts of time popping red pills like candy. If you and were committed enough do to what they do, we’d likely get the results they’re getting; that’s why I’m using their data. So, with all that in mind . . . to Wonderland.

Just as before, I’ve included the top-graded 4-3 DE, the Eagles’ Trent Cole, and the bottom-graded 4-3 DE, Kentwan Balmer of the Seahawks. The thick black line represents the average for 4-3 DEs who saw at least 25% of their team’s available snaps.

Just a week ago, I wrote that Cliff Avril was one of the two Lions who had the most to prove in 2010; boy, did he ever prove it. Avril was massively improved over 2009, and finished as PFF’s 11th-best graded 4-3 DT. He was 7th-best in the pure pass rush grading, and 4th-best in coverage. His athleticism, and linebacker pedigree, shows through in those grades. The question mark with Avril is his ability to anchor against the run; he grades out below-average there, but was far from a liability.

Avril was the Lions’ best defensive end, by a long shot, and a true difference-maker for the defense. He saw an average of number of snaps, fewer than most of the other top-ten-type—but that was due to injury, not lack of use. If he was healthy, he was in there. By my calculations, Avril was behind only Ray Edwards and Dwight Freeney in pressures-per-snap—he had a truly outstanding year applying heat to the quarterback. When Kyle Vanden Bosch was hurt, Avril not only didn’t wilt under the pressure, he took the reigns and ran with them, handing in better grades as the season went on. Food for thought: he turns 25 next month.

Interestingly, Avril only had two QB hits all season, far fewer than most with his kind of sack and pressure numbers. My guess is that he’s relying on pure speed to get around right tackles—then either getting there and flushing/sacking the QB, or not. I wonder if pass rushers the QB can see coming don’t get as many hits . . . an interesting project for another time.

Bottom Line: Cliff Avril was pigeonholed by most as a 3-4 ROLB, and I’m certain he could shine in that role. But he’s developed into the fast, athletic 4-3 rush end Rod Marinelli thought he could be. Avril will never be a 270-plus-pound, two-way monster—but he’s already an impact defender, top-flite pass rusher, and a huge part of this defense going forward. Signing this RFA to a long-term deal must be a top priority.

The centerpiece of the Lions’ free-agent additions, Kyle Vanden Bosch had a lot to prove, too: namely, that he could still get to the quarterback like he used to. In his first game, it seemed like he answered those questions in style; I said it was “one of the most amazing individual performances I’ve seen.” KVB poured his heart and soul out into that game, trying to will the Lions to victory. He was sideline-to-sideline, or as much so as a defensive end can be.  He put up a truly dominant PFF grade that week, too: a +6.1.

Unfortunately, KVB was inconsistent the rest of the season. He turned in very solid games against the Giants and Redskins, but was negatively, or neutrally, graded in every other game. He was graded well below-average in pass rush; negative in five of eleven games. He was the 46th-best pass rusher out of 65, and had less than half the pressures Avril did—yet, KVB had five sacks and ten quarterback hits in just eleven games. His sack-and-hit per-snap rate was 25th-best in the NFL. This suggests that he was “saving it up” for critical moments; generally just below average except for several plays a game.

However, all of this does an injustice to KVB’s contribution. He was the bell cow for the defensive line, the tone-setter; he pushed every single Lion on the line to practice at full speed, to workout like you practice, to push, to go to the limit and then realize it’s not really the limit and keep going. Avril, Suh, Hill, all the young linemen repeatedly pointed to KVB’s leadership as a major factor in their progression; he was a catalyst, and without him I doubt the others take the strides they did.

I had really good seats to the Jets game, and seeing KVB in action live was something else. He never missed an opportunity—before, during, or after the snap—to remind the Jets that he was there. That he was fighting. That they needed to keep their head on a swivel. That they needed to watch their ass. Vanden Bosch and the Lions out-Jetted the Jets on that day, mostly thanks to KVB and his leadership. PFF graded him at a –2.1 on the day, but I know he had a positive impact.

Bottom Line: Kyle Vanden Bosch is the ultimate leader, a consummate professional—and as a player, the yang to Cliff Avril’s yin. Had he stayed healthy, he would have had seven sacks and fifteen QB hits, more than acceptable standalone production, besides the undeniable halo effect. Unfortunately, he’s 32, and recovering from a major neck injury. The Lions need to find a starting, impact, two-way end to replace him by the 2012 season.

The most surprising line in the chart above is the red one, the one representing Lawrence Jackson. Jackson was the 25th overall pick in 2008, a four-year starter at USC. Lo-Jack is a 6’-4”, 270-pound two-way defensive end, the prototype end for this defense. He was the victim—and the Lions, again, the beneficiary—of “One Man’s Trash” syndrome. The Seahawks let a first-round pick two years into his career go in exchange for a sixth rounder, because he no longer fit their system. To replace Lo-Jack, the Seahawks traded their own sixth-rounder to the 49ers for . . . Kentwan Balmer, picked just a few spots after Jackson in the 2008 draft. Balmer, for the Seahawks this year, was the worst-graded DE in football (see chart).

Jonah Keri just wrote a whole book on how the Tampa Bay Rays went to the world series by making these kind of deals, over and over again. By trading one commodity for another, similar commodity, and getting a 2% edge, over time it really adds up—and at some point, you’ll get a few surprise deals where the edge is way more than 2%. In this case, the Seahawks essentially traded Lo-Jack for Kentwan Balmer. The difference, as you see above, is way more than 2% . . . and where did the benefit go? To the Lions.

Lo-Jack was not a terrifying speed rusher at USC. He had 30.5 sacks in four full seasons: 6, 10, 4, and 10.5, in order. But with size, strength, and attitude sharpened by life in hardscrabble Inglewood, Jackson was a force in both dimensions of the game; in his senior year he paired his 10.5 sacks with 60 tackles—a prototypical Schwartz/Cunningham defensive end.

When injuries hit the defensive line, Jackson answered the bell in a big, big way. Getting a steady diet of snaps from week 10 on, Lo-Jack had a huge (+5.0) game against Buffalo, at left end. He was flipped to the right when KVB went down, and was average against the Bears in his first game on that side. He was flipped back to the left against Green Bay, and had a very strong game, then back to the right against the Bucs and dominated (+4.5). He stayed on the right side the rest of the way out, struggling against Jake Long, but finishing strong against Bryant McKinnie.

Bottom Line: Lo-Jack produced like an above-average starter in heavy rotation, and fron Week 10 on was one of the better 4-3 DEs in the game. I’ll hold off on anointing him the starter of the future for now, because I’d like to see more consistency—but there’s no doubt he’d be the perfect physical fit for the void KVB will eventually leave.

Next, the ever-controversial Turk McBride. Controversial, because I repeatedly dismissed him in my offseason assessments last year, much to the chagrin of the commentariat. This season, the 6’-2”, 278-pound ex-Chief played about 40% fewer snaps than Avril or KVB, but about 40% more than Lo-Jack—exclusively at the left end until Vanden Bosch went down, then exclusively at the right end for the rest of the season.

The stats suggest that McBride was nearly as successful as Jackson; McBride had five sacks to Lo-Jack's eight. The second Green Bay game sheds some light on why they graded out so differently, though. By PFF’s reckoning, both McBride and Jackson had two sacks, yet McBride’s grade for that day was –0.3, and Jackson’s was +2.1. Jackson is clearly having more of an impact down-to-down; Lo-Jack’s run support is much better than McBride’s, as well.

Bottom Line: McBride is an interesting case. Phyiscally, he’s a bit of a ‘tweener, and he did manage to get to the quarterback five times. However, I’ve never liked the cut of his jib for reasons I couldn’t fully explain. The PFF grades show why: when he’s not sacking the quarterback, he’s simply not a factor. PFF’s consistency/home-run bias may be coming into play here, but it supports my eyeball take: Lo-Jack has long-term starter potential here; Turk McBride does not.

There’s nothing that can be said about The Great Willie Young that Neil from Armchair Linebacker hasn’t already said (at breathtakingly profane length!), but I will say this: in only six snaps, he was graded at a +1.5 on the season. He also impressed during the preseason.

Bottom Line: Willie Young is a developmental prospect with a very lean frame, a long way to go, and an undeniable knack for playing football. I hope he has a place on the roster for next season.

We’ve already talked about Andre Fluellen as a defensive tackle. He played 81 snaps there, as opposed to 72 at end, during the Avril/KVB injury phase of weeks 11-15. As a DE, he graded out as a below-average pass rusher, and a well-below-average everything else. I believe his future on this team is as a tackle.

Bottom Line: At 6’-2”, 302, Fluellen is a defensive tackle. He should get this offseason to be developed and coached strictly within that role, rather than being moved all over the line. Instead of frantically gaining and losing weight to fit immediate need, the Lions should develop him this year as strictly a three-technique DT.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions will need to find an impact two-way defensive end, ready to replace KVB as a starter by the 2012 season. Lawrence Jackson has the potential to be that end. Cliff Avril is an RFA who must be re-signed to a long-term deal. The Lions may look for a developmental speed-first end behind Avril, especially if Willie Young does not take major strides in the offseason.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,team needs,nfl draft,cliff avril,kyle vanden bosch,lawrence jackson

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Presenting TLiW's Inagural Blue Flame Awards

Since it’s award season on the Internets, with everyone handing out notional hardware for their Ten Best ------ or ------ Of The Year, I decided to try bestowing some completelly meaningless, but mildly entertaining, honors of my own.  Behold: the inaugural, and possibly annual, Blue Flame Awards!

• Game of The Year: Detroit Lions 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 20

  This was a difficult choice.  Of course, my indelible memory from this year will be my son’s first Lions game, against the Jets.  But in a season with five-and-counting wins, one of the ten heartbreaking losses can’t be the game of the year.  The completely improbable 7-3 defeat of the Packers will stand out as the Lions’ most impressive victory, the tallest giant they toppled.  But the win that snapped the Lions’ road streak gets my vote as the Game of the Year.  It featured the game of Drew Stanton’s life, a sustained rushing attack, a masterful drive to tie the game, and a suspense-ending first-possession overtime victory.  Drama.  Majesty.  Victory on the road against a quality opponent.  Game of the Year.

• Tom Moore Coach of The Year: Scott Linehan, Offensive Coordinator

  Three different quarterbacks have started (and won) football games for this team, and Linehan has done a flatly masterful job of tailoring the offense to the strengths of each.  A downfield aerial attack with Stafford in, a high-percentage shell game with TEs and RBs in the slot with Shaun Hill, and an wild grab bag of quarterback runs, running back by committee (if not an entire Congress), and quick slants with Drew Stanton in.  For most of the season, the Lions have been in the top ten in the NFL in scoring (they’re currently 14th).  Considering the revolving door at quarterback, their nearly-a-touchdown-per-game improvement in scoring over last year (from 16.4 ppg to 22.8) borders on miraculous.  Honorable Mention: Gunther Cunningham, defensive coordinator; Kris Kocurek, defensive line coach.

• Barry Sanders Cannot Hope To Stop Him Award: Calvin Johnson, WR

  Given to the most dominant offensive player, this award was a complete no-brainer.  For reference, see Johnson’s preposterous 46-yard touchdown catch against the Bears.  He consistently presents a nightmare matchup to any defense in the NFL, anywhere he is on the field.  Just before “print time,” Calvin was named a Pro Bowl starter.  Honorable Mention: Jahvid Best, RB

• Mike Cofer Tecmo Super Bowl Beast Mode Award:  Ndamukong Suh, DT

  Given to the most dominant defensive player, this award was much harder to give out.  For starters, an argument could be made that Suh, despite the numbers, has not even been the most consistently dominant defensive lineman on the roster.  Corey Williams has been a force against both the run and the pass, and Cliff Avril has blossomed into the edge rusher we all thought he could be.  But Ndamukong Suh, in a position that practically demands two or three years of physical maturation, has brought down the enemy quarterback nine times in his rookie season, leading all NFL DTs.  Further, he’s done it against frequent double-teams.  He’s still against the run, and some of his sacks have more to do with pursuit than penetration—but Suh is a monster talent who’s already dominant—as of this writing, he’d just been named a starter in the Pro Bowl—and is nowhere near his ceiling.  Honorable Mention: Corey Williams, DT; Cliff Avril, DE

• Mel Gray Three Phases of the Game Award: (tie) Stefan Logan, PR/KR/WR; John Wendling, ST

  I couldn't just pick one of these two as the most game-changing special teams player of the year.  Logan’s long, dynamic returns consistently shortened the field for the offense—and once, even put points on the board.  Logan was also a willing and able tackler on the kick coverage unit.  Wendling consistently lengthened the field for the opponent with his amazing play as a punt gunner, both with on-the-spot tackles of opposing returners, and heroic kills of Nick Harris’s punts.

• Chris Spielman Heart of a Lion Award: Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE

  Given to the Lion who most profoundly exudes fire, toughness, and determination to win, KVB had this one sewn up Week 1.  His ten-tackle, sideline-to-sideline performance against the Bears was one of the most incredible single games any defensive Lion has had in my memory—singlehandedly willing the Lions to victory.  He clearly set the tone for the Lions’ best unit, both on the field and off.  His approach to practice, preparation, training, and games were cited by coaches and teammates alike as the model for the rest of the squad.  Honorable Mention: Drew Stanton, QB; Dominic Raiola, C

•   Bryant Westbrook Realized Potential Award: Cliff Avril, DE Cliff Avril, perhaps the prototypical 3-4 rush OLB, was as surprised as anyone when Rod Marinelli drafted him to play as a 4-3 end.  After his rookie season, where he picked up 5 sacks in just four starts, it looked as though the third-round pick was going to quickly develop into the Lions’ premier pass rusher.  However, a change to a philosophy that emphasizes bigger ends, and a lingering hamstring injury, stunted his growth in 2009.  Gunther publicly questioned his “mean streak.”  However, he showed up to OTAs and blew the coaches away with his preparedness, physically and mentally.  He immediately locked down a starting spot, and has racked up eight sacks so far this year—including three against Green Bay.  He responded to the loss of KVB by taking his play to the next level; a sure sign that he has arrived.  Honorable Mention: DeAndre Levy, MLB

• Commenter Matt TLiW Commenter of the Year Award: echo

Those of you who’ve been reading for a long time know that “Matt” has been a prolific, intelligent, and well-spoken commenter since nearly the beginning.  I’m going to name the award after him—but I’m going to give this year’s award to “echo,” who blew up the Emmitt vs. Barry: By the Numbers post with page after page of incredibly well-researched info.  Given how high that post ranks for “Barry vs. Emmitt” searches, echo has done the whole world a permanent favor.  Thanks, man.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,ndamukong suh,cliff avril,scott linehan,calvin johnson,stefan logan,john wendling,kyle vanden bosch

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Kyle Vanden Bosch: Music With What We Have Left

I named this post after a beautiful--but apocryphal--story about violin virtuoso Itzhak Perlman finishing a concert after breaking a string.  Perlman, so the story goes, snapped a string very early in the performance—and forged ahead, using alternate fingerings, different voicings, even detuning strings (!) on the fly to complete the piece without missing a beat.  Perlman, who was stricken with polio as a youth and so walks with crutches, then quieted the enthralled audience and (allegedly) said, “You know, sometimes it’s the artist’s task to find out how much music you can still make with with what you have left.”

Again, as I said, it didn’t actually happen, as far as anyone can tell—the story appeared in the Houston Chronicle six years after the concert supposedly took place, doesn’t jibe with Perlman’s known performance schedule from the time, and nobody who saw him perform around then reported anything like the above . . . but it is a good story.

Today, Kyle Vanden Bosch was placed on the Reserve-Injured list, ending his first season as a Detroit Lion.  A captain, and the unquestioned heart and soul of the defense, KVB finished with 33 tackles, 11 assists, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a pass defensed.  This included a monster 10-tackle tour de force in the season opener; one of the greatest individual performances by a Lion in recent memory.  We’re told not to worry, the bulging disk will be easily corrected, and KVB will return to play “at a high level.”  I’d be inclined to question The Grandmaster on this one, except he was right about how much KVB had left in the tank to begin with . . .

So what’s left?  A freshly-broken-out Cliff Avril, Turk McBride, Lawrence Jackson, and (the Great) Willie Young.  If Avril can keep up his dominant play, this group won’t be too shabby—especially if the tackles continue to play as they have.  However, that’s a pretty big “if;” KVB’s leadership inarguably inspired Avril and the rest of the line to play as they have—will they keep it up in his absence?  In a way, KVB’s absence will allow us to judge his off-field impact on the team, just as much as his presence allowed us to judge his impact between the lines.

Moreover, it’ll be a stern test of just how far the defense has come under Schwartz and Cunningham: can they keep this group motivated and productive without the man they desperately courted in the offseason?  Knowing KVB would be the catalyst for great improvement on the defensive line, will the reaction keep going now that the catalyst is spent?  Can Guntherball keep playing the offense like a fiddle, calling just the right blitz at just the right time, now that a string has snapped?  We’ll get to see just how much music he can still make with what he has left.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,jim schwartz,gunther cunningham,kyle vanden bosch,cliff avril

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Three Cups Deep: late Night TEA

I usually write Three Cups Deep on Monday morning, while I draw strength from the taste, smell, and heat of my morning coffee.  I usually record the Fireside Chat podcast on Sunday night, with a live audience listening in via Ustream.  However, I’m fighting a nasty head cold; I can guarantee you don’t want my voice piped into your ears right now!  So, I’m writing this while sipping late-night tea, instead of early-morning coffee.

Today (Sunday) was my daughter’s sixth birthday; there’s a lifetime worth of blog posts about what that means to me.  But six years ago, to the day, in Week 2 of the 2004 season, at halftime of a Lions victory, my daughter was born.  Between that mojo, and the amazing vibe of the incredible Michigan State victory the night before, I held on to a crazy belief that victory was not only possible, but cosmically preordained.  It would be so great, be so beautiful, make so much sense—of course it would have to happen.  It would make no sense to not happen?

It’s the kind of crazy thinking a fan does—but when the Lions went up 17-7, I really began to believe.  I got the hope, the tingle; the all-over buzz and swimmy insides.  Even when the Eagles got the lead back right before halftime, I still figured it was within reach.  But then it started slipping away; when the Eagles made it 35-17, I turned my attention to preparations for my daughter’s birthday party.  The improbable, magical victory I’d felt in my bones had turned into the same old miserable story I’d seen played out over and over and over again for the last decade.

Then, for the second time in two games, this Lions team ripped up that God-forsaken script.  The Eagles, thinking they’d had the game won, let up a little bit—and the Lions pounced, scoring twice in two minutes.  With a successful onside kick, they started what might have been a third scoring drive, possibly the game-winning scoring drive.  But, as you know, that drive never drove; a four-and-out set up the most aggravating ending since The Rules of Attraction.

I was an confounding mix of pleased and pissed, surprised and not at all, satisfied and aching for just a little more.  In a game that everyone marked an “L” the moment the schedule was released, coming away with a three-point loss feels like an achievement.  And yet, losing the home opener when the Lions had a 17-7 lead in the second quarter feels like a disaster.  As Killer wrote on Mlive.com, that’s exactly how Kyle Vanden Bosch feels:

"We could've put them away early. When we get in the lead and have the momentum, we've got to finish. We have to keep our foot on the throttle. And then, in the end, we have to find a way to win it."

While I was simmering in this sweet and sour sauce, my wife put it into perspective for me.  She said, “You can tell it’s working.  This isn’t the same team that lost sixteen games; it’s not even the same team that lost fourteen games.  You can see it: this team is different.”  Of course, she’s right.  It’s hard to be satisfied with another moral victory when a real one was so achingly close for the second week in a row.  But with all the obstacles facing the Lions—no Matthew Stafford, no DeAndre Levy, a hampered Louis Delmas—they’re still clearly a competitive team, a real team.  The Lions are a  team that can’t be written off by any opponent at any time, and that is satisfying indeed.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,philadelphia eagles

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The Defensive Line and the Secondary, Part III

Throughout the offseason, it’s been speculated that the Lions’ woeful pass defense will get a boost from the revamped defensive line.  With Kyle Vanden Bosch and developing Cliff Avril on the ends, and Corey Williams and Ndamukong Suh joining Sammie Hill on the inside, the pass rush should be greatly improved.  This should, in turn, take pressure off the unproven secondary . . . right?

I set out to investigate this in part one, using the NFL’s league-wide data over the past two decades or so.  I tried to find correlation between seasons when sacks were up, and seasons when passing offense was down.  I think I learned more from the comments about how statistics and regression analysis work, than I did about the correlation between pass rush and pass defense—but my early results suggested that there is not a correlation between pass rush and pass defense.

I tried again with part two, blending pro-football-reference.com’s official and official-derived data for 2009, with profootballfocus.com’s manually film-reviewed defensive stats and grades.  I came up with a stat I called “pass rush rate,” which was opponent pass dropbacks (attempts + sacks) divided by cumulative sacks, hits, and pressures.  Then, I ran a simple correlation between every team’s pass rush rate for 2009, and their yards-per-attempt allowed.  The correlation was weak, –0.152. When squared to get the effect size, it was a negligible .023.

Importantly, the real-world analysis bore this out: the Jets had an extraordinary pass defense, by far the best in the NFL.  While their pass rush was solid, ranking 9th of 32 in pass rush rate, it was just that—solid, not phenomenal like the overall pass defense was.  Amazingly, the Cleveland Browns generated pressure on the quarterback more often than every team except Dallas and Minnesota—and yet, they were the fifth worst pass defense in the NFL!  Pass rush alone doesn’t make a defense effective.

For this installment, I wanted to get even more specific: I wanted to isolate defensive line pass rush from everything else.  After all, the idea is that getting an effective rush with just the front four will allow much greater flexibility in coverage and blitzing.  I aggregated the stats of just the defensive linemen, and compared them to what I already had.

Now, let me tell you a legendary tale . . . or, well, I guess, just a legend:

• Name: The name of the team.
• A: The primary defensive alignment.
• Pass Rush Rate: The percentage of opponent dropbacks (Attempts + Sacks) on which the defense achieved a pressure stat (Sacks + QB Hits + Pressures + Batted Passes).
• DL Pass Rush Rate: The percentage of opponent dropbacks (Attempts + Sacks) on which the defensive line achieved a pressure stat (Sacks + QB Hits + Pressures + Batted Passes).
• % of rush from DL: The percentage of defensive pressure stats (Sacks + QB Hits + Pressures + Batted Passes) generated by defensive linemen.

NAME	A	Pass Rush Rate	DL Pass Rush Rate	% of rush from DL
Dallas Cowboys	3-4	48.2%	18.2%	37.8%
Minnesota Vikings	4-3	47.7%	38.9%	81.7%
Cleveland Browns	3-4	44.0%	19.1%	43.4%
Miami Dolphins	3-4	43.3%	36.0%	83.1%
Philadelphia Eagles	4-3	43.1%	35.4%	82.2%
New York Giants	4-3	43.0%	35.3%	82.0%
Atlanta Falcons	4-3	42.9%	35.1%	81.8%
Green Bay Packers	3-4	41.6%	13.5%	32.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-4	41.3%	10.1%	24.4%
Houston Texans	4-3	41.2%	32.7%	79.4%
New York Jets	HYB	40.3%	19.3%	47.9%
Denver Broncos	3-4	39.7%	13.1%	33.0%
Tennesee Titans	4-3	39.6%	36.0%	90.9%
San Francisco 49ers	3-4	39.4%	16.5%	41.9%
Washington Redskins	4-3	39.2%	29.2%	74.5%
Carolina Panthers	4-3	39.2%	35.4%	90.3%
Arizona Cardinals	3-4	38.5%	18.7%	48.6%
New England Patriots	HYB	37.8%	18.8%	49.8%
Chicago Bears	4-3	37.3%	29.9%	80.1%
San Diego Chargers	3-4	37.3%	12.5%	33.5%
Kansas City Chiefs	3-4	37.1%	12.8%	34.5%
St. Louis Rams	4-3	37.0%	28.7%	77.5%
Oakland Raiders	4-3	36.6%	30.5%	83.3%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4-3	36.3%	29.6%	81.6%
Indianapolis Colts	4-3	35.8%	33.2%	92.8%
Baltimore Ravens	4-3	35.6%	25.2%	70.7%
Seattle Seahawks	4-3	34.2%	27.2%	79.4%
New Orleans Saints	4-3	34.2%	23.6%	69.2%
Buffalo Bills	4-3	32.5%	27.6%	84.9%
Cincinnati Bengals	4-3	32.2%	26.2%	81.3%
Detroit Lions	4-3	29.2%	23.5%	80.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars	HYB	27.9%	10.3%	37.0%

We can see a few things in action here.  First, the Lions were terrible: second-worst in the NFL in Pass Rush Rate.  Second, the numbers get more wildly varied from left to right.  Most teams generate a pressure stat on 30-40% of the time their opponents drop back to pass, with the extremes at 27.9% and 48.2%.  Most teams generate pressure from the defensive line between 15-35% of the time, with extremes at 10.1% and 38.9%.  The percentage of the pass rush that comes from the defensive line is all over the board, from 92.8% all the way down to 24.4%.  What does this mean?

Given the amazingly wide range of percentage-of-pass-rush-from-defensive-line stats, and the zero (okay –.120, R-squared .014) correlation between them and Pass Rush Rate, I knew that scheme was a major factor.  The Colts generated almost all of the pass rush from the defensive line, just as a Tampa 2 is supposed to.  Their two ends, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney, accounted for 24 of Indy’s 33 sacks, 23 of 45 hits, 78 of 139 pressures, and 1 of 4 batted balls.  That’s right, Mathis and Freeney were fifty-seven percent of the Colts’ pressure statistics; they were the Colts’ pass rush.  Meanwhile the Steelers, despite having one of the league’s better pass rushes, got only 24.4% of their rush from their line.

  I separated the teams out by scheme, grouping 4-3 teams together, and 3-4 and hybrid teams together.  Since the Lions are a 4-3 team, and that’s what this exercise is all about, I discarded the 3-4s and the hybrids, and set about correlating PRR with Y/A, for just 4-3 teams:

Okay, so these are the 2009 4-3 defenses, and their overall Pass Rush Rate regressed against opponent Yards per Attempt.  Look at the R-squared; there is literally zero correlation between these two statistics.  Okay, we expected that to an extent—but what if we do it for just defensive line?  If the rush is getting there without blitzing, that should make coverage better—so, we should see a tighter correlation when we regress DL-only Pass Rush Rate against Y/A Allowed:

That’s a little itsy bit better, but there’s still no real correlation happening here.  Okay, what if we do it for percentage of pass rush that comes from the defensive line?

Okay, we’re making tiny, tiny incremental progress, but this is still nothing we can call correlation.  Yards per Attempt, my favorite measure of per-play passing effectiveness, is completely disconnected from pass rush, DL-only pass rush, and percentage of pass rush generated by the DL.  But we know for a fact that teams with good pass rushes have good defenses, right?  I mean, the Vikings have a good defense, right?  Right.

Okay, now we’re talking.  In all of my pass rush data mining, the strongest meaningful correlation I could find was between what percentage of pass rush comes from a 4-3 defensive line, and how many points that defense surrendered on the year.  As I said way back in part one:

We're left with the depressing conclusion that the only good pass defense is good pass defense. However, that's not really the case, either. Sacks and interceptions, though they don’t affect the interplay of pass offense and pass defense outside of themselves, are still extremely important in terms of total defense. Stopping drives and preventing scoring is the primary job of a defense; a third-down sack or a red-zone INT can erase sixty or seventy yards’ worth of Montanaesque passing effectiveness.

So again, as I’ve been saying: an improved pass rush won’t improve a team’s pass defense—but it will improve the team’s scoring defense.  Here’s the second-strongest correlation I found: percentage of PRR from a 4-3 DL regressed against Passing 1st Downs Allowed:

Okay, again, this makes sense: the more pass rush you can generate from your 4-3 defensive line, the fewer passing first downs you allow . . . but we’re not done yet.  I calculated the simple correlation factors for every offensive stat I thought might be illuminating.  Note that these are NOT the R-squared effect sizes you see in the charts above—since that eliminates the direction of the correlation, which is important here.  To get those effect-size figures, square the amounts in this table:

Category	%DB/P	%DB/DLP	%P/DL	Att/PD
points	-0.133	-0.360	-0.547	-0.237
total first downs	-0.007	-0.210	-0.431	-0.262
passing first downs	-0.015	-0.241	-0.482	-0.132
running first downs	-0.187	-0.257	-0.232	-0.114
yards per attempt	-0.064	-0.139	-0.190	-0.062
yards per completion	-0.147	-0.316	-0.418	-0.293
completion percentage	0.135	0.269	0.325	0.356
interceptions	-0.133	-0.081	0.037	0.165
touchdowns	0.175	0.205	0.123	0.134
passer rating	0.156	0.148	0.049	0.012

Look at completion percentage: there is a weak, but positive correlation between PRR, defensive line PRR, and percentage of PRR from DL and completion percentage.  So, as the defensive line gets more pressure, generally quarterbacks complete more of their passes—but, at what cost?  Look again at yards per completion; there’s a moderate negative correlation between increased DL pressure and average completion length.

There is a definable “cringe effect!”  When the defensive line generates more pressure, offenses generally tend to complete more and shorter passes—“going into a shell,” as it’s called.  It’s this mechanism, completing more passes for fewer yards, that explains why yards-per-attempt allowed doesn’t change as the pass rush rate increases.  Teams will dink-and-dunk in the face of the rush—meaning they convert fewer third downs, and score fewer points.

So.  How much better will the Lions’ defensive line have to be?  Well, as we saw, their pass rush numbers are terrible.  In order for the Lions to improve their Pass Rush Rate to the league average, they’d have to increase it from 29.2% of snaps to 37.7%.  To increase DL PRR to league average, they’d have to increase it from 23.5% to 30.7%.  The percentage of PRR from the DL is about right, 80.2% versus 81.3%.

The league average team faced 567 dropbacks last year, compared to the Lions’ 571, so I’ll normalize the Lions’ pressure stats to 99.3%: 22.83 QB sacks, 34.76 QB hits, 100.29 QB pressures, and 7.94 batted passes.  I’ll do the same for the DL pressure stats, from 18 to 17.86, from 26 to 25.82, from 82 to 81.43, and from 8 to 8.94.  Now, to compare to the NFL average, find the difference, and voila:

Team/Data	%DB/P	%DB/DLP	%P/DL	QBSk	QBHt	QBPr	BP	DLSk	DLHt	DLPr	DLBP
Detroit Lions (normalized)	29.2%	23.5%	80.2%	22.83	34.76	100.29	7.94	17.86	25.82	81.43	7.94
NFL Average 4-3	37.7%	30.7%	81.3%	33.00	52.00	118.00	10.00	25.00	40.00	98.00	9.00
Delta (absolute)	8.5%	7.2%	1.1%	10.17	17.24	17.71	2.06	7.14	14.18	16.57	1.06
Delta (percentage)	29.1%	30.6%	1.4%	44.5%	49.6%	17.7%	25.9%	40.0%	54.9%	20.4%	13.3%

We can conclude that, in order to bring their pass rush up to NFL average levels for a 4-3, their defensive line will have to increase their sack rate by 40%, their hit rate by 54.9%, their pressure rate by 20.4%, and their batted-ball rate up by 13.3%—and they’ll need a few more sacks and hits from the linebackers and secondary, as well.  I’m still working on projecting all that data out into points allowed, first downs allowed, etc., but there you have it.  If the Lions face the same number of dropbacks in 2010 that the average NFL team did in 2009, the difference between KVB/Avril/Williams/Suh and Avril/Hunter/Cohen/Hill will have to be worth an improvement of 7 sacks, 14 hits, 17 pressures, and 1 batted ball over 2009’s 18, 26, 82, and 8 to get back to average.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,ndamukong suh,kyle vanden bosch,defensive line,statistics,sacks,analysis

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Seeing Is Believing

On Friday morning, I awoke to an unpleasant surprise: my glasses were missing a lens. After twenty-odd minutes of tearing their perch on my bookshelf apart, I concluded that the Lens Gnomes had simply made off with it. Acute myopia, with a twist of astigmatism, renders me worthless without corrective lenses--but the rat race must be run. So, into work I drove, one eye closed.

Shopping from a list of nearby insurance participants, I called SEE Eyewear and got their earliest available appointment: 3:00 p.m. After a long hard day of squinting at computer code, I drove over there pirate-style. That's when they broke the bad news: they had no on-site lab, so the very earliest they could get me new glasses was Wednesday--maybe Tuesday, if God and UPS made a tiny miracle together. I had a Big Problem.

Fortunately, the good folks at S.E.E. (it's an acronym!) had a solution: they could sit me for a quick contact fitting, and I could wear trial lenses until the day my specs arrived. Easy-peasy, yes? No.

You see, I've had glasses since the first grade. I've never 'made do', never worn contacts, and never considered RK or LASIK. Going without my glasses would be like going without my nose; for the past twenty-three years I've never looked in the mirror and clearly seen one without the other. That nose has pad-shaped divots at the bridge, and my temples sport thin horizontal grooves. My glasses are a literally a part of me.

However, I had to face my face without them. A brief fitting session, and slightly-less-brief crash course on contact lens insertion, and the contacts were in.

My eyes felt more opened than they ever had before. My entire field of vision was clear. I could see all around me, wind wafting past my eyes, my face relieved of a polycarbonate burden it had borne for decades. Everything was new again! You couldn't wipe the smile off my face as I walked around looking at things. Mrs. Inwinter exclaimed that in our twelve years together, she'd never looked into my eyes knowing I was looking back--until now. It seemed like a wondrous new world had opened up for me . . . then I realized: this is what it's always like for everybody else.

The Detroit Lions are facing a similar crossroads. After the incredible burden of 0-16, the glorious celebration when that burden was cast off, and two straight offseasons of talent addition, the Lions cannot go into this season hoping to win a single game, or even win a game or two more than last. No, the Lions have assembled a talented roster, with legitimate talent on both sides of the ball. The veterans will be expected to play as they have, and the youngsters will be expected to produce up to their potential. A 3-13 season will be a disappointment, not a thrilling sign of what's to come.

You can see it best, perhaps, in the defensive line: Jason Hunter. Jared DeVries. Landon Cohen. Turk McBride. Andre Fluellen. These guys are good players; they certainly belong on an NFL roster. But Sammie Hill, Corey Williams, Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Cliff Avril take up five spots, and seventh-rounder Willie Young should catch on. That leaves three, maybe four, more spots for five players. A player who is good enough to play in the NFL will be released, because they aren't good enough to play for the Lions.

As Uncle Ben told us, with great power, comes great responsibility--and with great potential, comes great expectations. It's assumed that second-year quarterback Matthew Stafford will take a big step forward. It's assumed that Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson will step in and produce. It's assumed that both Lions first-rounders, Suh and Jahvid Best, will step in and be the impact players they were in college. If these players don't step up, there are going to be some serious grumblings from the fans--and presumably, the owner, since he's on the hook for these players' staggering contracts.

If they do, the Lions will have, at minimum, a legitimate NFL offense: everyone running with the ones is either an established NFL starter, or a first-round pick of the last three years. It's tempting to start pencilling in pinball numbers for this newly-legitimate Lions offense, but then it hits you: this is what it's always like for everybody else.

The Lions, like Pinocchio, have cast off their strings and become Real Boys, but now they face real dangers, difficulties, and pitfalls. Yes, it's terrible coming off of an 0-16 season. Yes, it's terrible being the butt of every joke. But, there's also something easy about that, something safe: a real team, with real expectations of competitiveness, doesn't come back out of the locker room for an extended curtain call because they won a game. Those days are over, thank God, but it's a mixed blessing: there's no longer nowhere to go but up.

We no longer view this team through the glasses of perennial loserdom. We no longer see them as a ragtag bunch of misfits for whom victory is a rare and treasured accident, we see them as they are: a very young, talented team with a lot of potential--and a whole lot to prove. It's been a long time since we've been able to take the Lions at face value, but now, as full-roster OTAs begin, it's time. Let's take the blue-colored glasses off, step into the warm spring sun, and see the Lions as they truly are.

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Disorganized Blogging Activities (DBAs)

As I nurse the last of my very tiny bottle of Patron, closing out the World's Smallest Cinco de Mayo party, I'm thinking about what is currently tomorrow--but in fifteen minutes will be today [sorry, it’s today now—Ty].

What I'm getting to, here, is Thursday: the first media-viewable Organized Team Activity. We should be seeing a flurry of articles, photos, and reports of the new Lions veterans: Vanden Bosch, Burleson, Williams, Houston, Scheffler, and the rest. As excited as we all are about the rookies--and excited, we should be--it's these veterans that are going to be the difference between 2-14 and, maybe, respectability in 2010.

This will be the first chance we get to see these Lions, though not with our own eyes.  Without the newness and uncertainty of last season’s OTAs, without the shame of 0-16, these practices should be all-positive affairs.  There’s no searching for a direction or wondering who’ll fit in.  There already IS a direction; the only concern is moving forward, getting better.

I’m curious to see if the new blood will revitalize the practices, with high-energy guys like Vanden Bosch and Scheffler ,who are legitimately excited to be here, setting a higher tempo, pushing everyone around them to get better.  I’m also curious to see the dynamics of leadership on defense . . . whose unit, now, is this?  Shaun Rogers, Ernie Sims, Larry Foote, they’re all gone.  Does Vanden Bosch command that kind of respect from Day One?  What about Levy, Avril, or Delmas?

On another note, Gosder Cherilus is rehabbing from a knee surgery we didn’t know he had, to repair a knee injury we didn’t know he had.  It’s tempting to retroactively blame some of his subpar performances on it, but knees don’t get flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct.

On another, other note, the Red Wings face elimination at home tonight.  I am very sad about this.  I’ve come to expect playoff hockey to fill the gap between the draft and Training Camp; now hockey might be over before veterans and rookies even take the field together.  It’s just not right.  Actually, what’s not right is professional hockey being played into July . . .

On another, other, other note, Ernie Harwell passed away.  You won’t see any maudlin memorials in this space; I got all of my sadness out of the way back when his cancer was made public.  No, I’m only feeling a gentle happiness at my memories of his voice, and Tiger baseball.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,detroit tigers,detroit red wings,ernie harwell,gosder cherilus,OTAs

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