Meet the Cubs: Nick Fairley

1.13 (13): Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

I’ve never been to any of the campuses of Copiah-Lincoln Community College. I’ve never stepped foot on their practice field in the heat of August. I have no idea if its facilities are those of a polished football factory, or of a rural high school. Is the grass lush and green, or dusty and scraggly? Is a cajun waterboy at the ready with a filtered backpack, or is there a garden hose with holes in it zip-tied to a chain link fence? I don’t know. I do know that Wesson, Mississippi is a long way from the bright lights of SEC football—and that’s where a huge, cat-quick pass-rusher from Mobile named Nick Fairley expected to be. Fairley told an Alabama TV station:

Juco, it kept me humble. Coming out of high school, everybody is going to the D-I school with a big guy, so everybody knows you. They are going into the big time D-I . . . juco was a great eye-opener and got me level headed and ready to go. So when I got to Auburn, I was ready.

For many players, it’s a long and winding road to the NFL. But for Nick Fairley, it was a long and winding road just from high school to the college of his choice. He was rated as just 3-star DE/DT prospect by both Scout.com and Rivals.com, though my suspicion is that had more to do with his lack of grades than a lack of potential. Clearly, a 6’-4,” 257-pound pass rusher with multiple SEC offers is more than a middle-of-the-road prospect.

Despite strong mutual interest with Auburn, and a verbal commitment, Fairley wasn’t academically able to attend Auburn. After graduating from Lillie B. Williamson high school, he went straight to Copiah-Lincoln, a JUCO which has fed several top prospects to Auburn. After that redshirt year, Fairley terrorized the JUCO competition: he racked up 63 tackles (9.0 per game), 9 TFL (1.3 per game), 28 QB hits (4.0 per game), and 7 sacks (1.0 per game). He also notched two fumble recoveries, one forced fumble, one blocked kick and seven pass breakups.

Throughout, Fairley kept his eyes on the prize; he never wavered in his commitment to Auburn. By the time he was ready to sign with a DI program, Fairley was up to 295 pounds; Rivals maintained Fairley’s 3-star status, but Scout.com re-ranked Nick as a four-star JUCO recruit. Fairley was thrilled to re-commit:

"I'm very excited to re-commit to Auburn," said Fairley. "I've been waiting on this for a long time, since I went to junior college. Auburn is where I wanted to go out of high school so I decided to stick with them.

"I'm ready to go to Auburn, work hard, get my grades and make an impact."

. . . except it didn't quite work out that way. After recommitting in May of 2008, the Tigers’ 2008 season ended with the resignation of head coach Tommy Tuberville. Having spent a year and a half at Cop-Lin with visions of War Eagles dancing in his head, he didn’t re-open his recruiting. Fairley signed his NLI to attend Auburn on December 17th. However, in January it was discovered that one of his correspondence classes wasn’t completed by the deadline, so Nick had to enroll in late May—missing the spring practices of his sophomore year.

When asked about his unwavering commitment to the Tigers, even after a staff change and the academic goofup, Fairley pointed to the presence of “Coach Rock,” former Auburn standout Tracy Rocker:

“When he was at Auburn, he won the Outland and Lombardi trophies. Not too many defensive linemen have done that. He must know something. He's also been to the (NFL) so he knows what it takes. I would rather get coached by someone that's been there and done it."

Despite missing spring ball—thus being behind his teammates in knowledge of the defense and scheme—Fairley started the Tigers’ first game of 2009, against Louisiana Tech.  He had five tackles, a fumble recovery, half a TFL, and 2 QB hits--but also looked every bit as raw as he was. Coach Gene Chizik:

“Being a defensive lineman and starting your first game, things get hairy down there,” Chizik said. “That’s a whole different world down there on the defensive line because it’s so physical. It’s just the nature of the position. Nick played high a little bit, but overall really tried to play physical and tried to play with some effort. I think he falls into the category of we’ve got a long way to go to get him where he needs to be. I think he’s got a chance down the road to be a really good player.”

Fairley would play in all 13 games—and get one more start—his sophomore year. Playing mostly as a reserve, Fairley still notched 28 total tackles, 3.5 TFL, and 1.5 sacks. Impressively, his first career sack (for minus 14 yards) came against Georgia—and he blocked a PAT against Tennessee, maintaining a 13-6 lead right before halftime. He repeated the five-solo-tackle performance of his first game in the last game that season, roughing up Northwestern in a nailbiter of an Outback Bowl.

At this point, it seems kind of ridiculous to recap Fairley’s junior season at Auburn. I’ll just copy and paste from his official bio:

CAREER -- Won 2010 Lombardi Trophy, becoming second player in school history to win the award joining his position coach, Tracy Rocker who won the award in 1988 ... Set AU single-season record of 24.0 TFL's in 2010, setting record against South Carolina in SEC Championship Game ... Also set AU single-season record with 11.5 sacks during junior season, setting record against Oregon in BCS National Championship Game ... Earned Defensive MVP honors of BCS National Championship Game vs. Oregon.

2010 -- Lombardi Award winner (nation's best lineman) ... Nagurski Award finalist ... Associated Press SEC Defensive Player of the Year ... FWAA All-America Team ... Walter Camp All-America Team ... Sporting News First-Team All-America ... SI.com First-Team All-America ... Associated Press First-Team All-America ... CBSSports.com First-Team All-America ... Rivals.com First-Team All-America ... Coaches' First-Team All-SEC ... Associated Press Unanimous First-Team All-SEC ... Phil Steele First-Team All-SEC ... ESPN.com All-SEC ... Outland Trophy semi-finalist ... CBSSports.com Midseason All-America ... Phil Steele's Midseason All-America First-Team ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (11/26-27) ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/23) ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/16) ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/2) ... SEC Defensive Player of the Week (9/13) ... Started all 14 games and totaled 60 tackles with 24.0 TFL's and 11.5 sacks ... Had at least 1.0 TFL in 12 of 14 games and a sack in eight games ... 1st in SEC / 12th in NCAA in sacks (11.5) and 1st in TFL's (3rd in NCAA) (24.0) .

Look, the dude ate people, okay? Nick Fairley subsisted on the flesh, souls, and hearts of opposing offensive linemen. He looked like a man amongst boys, even at the heart of an SEC defense. So, what changed from his sophomore year? What transformed him from a raw, promising prospect to a world-devourer? Fairley told the LA Times that, again, DL coach Tracy Rocker played a huge role:

Tracy Rocker, Auburn's defensive line coach, gets the Tiger's share of credit for fine-tuning Fairley's considerable skill set.

"Coach Rocker flipped a switch to turn on," Fairley said.

This is the most intriguing side of Nick Fairley. For all of the talk of “questions” and “immaturity,” for all of the whispers about his work ethic and his commitment, he has unwavering respect for anyone who’s done it themselves. Tracy Rocker accomplished exactly what Nick Fairley wanted to accomplish, and Rocker was able to get Fairley to play at a dominant level. If only the Lions had someone who could command Fairley’s respect and attention . . .

On whether it concerns him that he'll be part of a three- or four-man rotation at defensive tackle:

"Aww man, playing with Suh is going to be an honor. That guy was the defensive rookie of the year, so to be able to play next to him… I can't wait to get in and pick his brain for the things he did his rookie year."

He did get a chance to speak with Suh shortly thereafter:

On having talked to Suh: “I talked to Suh today and he gave me some great advice; I talked to Kyle Vanden Bosch and all of them guys. I’m really just ready to go and I want to pick their brain … They’re going to give me some great advice so I can come in as a rookie and know what to do.”

On what Suh said to him: “He basically was like, ‘Man, you’ve got be ready to come to work; they’re going to push you and try to get the best out of you, but you’re going to have fun.’ He said that’s one thing that they do here is: have fun and work hard. So I’m ready to come here and get things together.”

I firmly believe that Nick Fairley is walking into the best possible situation. Not only is the Lions’ defensive line one of the most talented position groups in the game, it’s got the strongest culture. Kyle Vanden Bosch sets the bar for effort, intensity, and consistency as high as it will go. Ndamukong Suh is a physical freak and firebreathing monster on the field, a gentle giant with rare understanding off it. Lawrence Jackson is a brilliant young man with a poet’s soul—and a first-round pick’s tools and production. Cliff Avril plays with joy and abandon, but has relentlessly built his body and game up from a third-round OLB ‘tweeter to a prototypical 4-3 rush end. Corey Williams is a naturally big-bodied man who really, really, really can’t wait to get at the quarterback.

Leading them all is position coach Kris Kocurek, whose approach and creativity has drawn raves from players, coaches, and observers alike. Working closely with Kocurek is Gunther Cunningham, who combines a well-earned rep for exacting standards and profane tirades with a genuine love for his players and colleagues deeper than could ever let on in public (even though he lets on in public, too). On top of all that, of course, is Jim Schwartz, The Grandmaster, who drew consistently excellent performance out of notoriously inconsistent talents like Albert Haynesworth and Jevon Kearse.

I don’t want to wax too poetic here—but the Lions have built a truly special unit, a group of players and coaches who will define the identity of this team for years to come. If Nick Fairley wants to get where he says he wants to go, all he’ll have to do is show up in Allen Park and follow his teammates’ lead. If he can stay relentlessly committed to Auburn through the two-year odyssey in between graduating high school and stepping onto campus, he can do that. Frankly, I don’t think his teammates will let him fail. But of course, I’ve written enough about the Lions’ current linemen. What are the experts saying about Nick Fairley?

• Sideline Scouting:

  Positives: Very solid athlete... Good size... Very solid pass rusher... Long arms... Uses his hands well... Quick off the ball... Disruptive... Gets in the backfield... Plays with good leverage... Reasonably good strength... Solid power... Can get penetration... Very solid bull rush... Solid strength at the point of attack... Shoots gaps well... Good arsenal of pass rush moves... Great swim move... Can split and slice through some double teams... Does a good job shedding single blockers and making plays on the ball... Good flexibility and body control... Plays the run well... Does a nice job in pursuit... Actively chases the ball... Makes plays in the backfield versus the run... Stays low... Looks comfortable dropping into short coverage... Good recognition skills... High motor... Plays with intensity... Mean streak... Played through an injured shoulder toward the end of the 2010 season... Tremendous upside... Finished third in the FBS with 24 tackles for loss in 2010... Schematic versatility, could also get looks as 3-4 LDE... Compares to Warren Sapp, Marcus Stroud.

  Negatives: Former junior college transfer who started just two games prior to the 2010 season... Can wear down a bit as the game progresses... Will play down to his opponent... Needs to improve lower body strength... Can be engulfed at the point of attack... Questionable work habits... Has taken some undisciplined penalties, and some cheap shots at quarterbacks... Measured in at the combine over an inch shorter and nine pounds lighter than his listed weight, could fall a bit if viewed only as a three-technique tackle who would only appeal to 4-3 teams... Reportedly missed his flight to the combine, missed a team meeting there, and was late for a team interview at his pro day.

• CBS Sports:

  Pass rush: Explosive initial burst off the snap. Good flexibility and balance to "get skinny" and penetrate gaps. Uses his hands well to slap away blockers' attempts to get their hands on him. Possesses a rare combination of long arms and quick feet, helping him avoid cut blocks. Good swim move. Locates the ball quickly and has the lateral agility to redirect. Good short-area closing burst. Good effort in pursuit. Surprising speed for a man of his size.

  Run defense: Relies on his quickness to penetrate gaps and make plays behind the line of scrimmage more than his strength to hold up at the point of attack. Long, relatively thin limbed for the position and can be knocked off the ball due to his lack of an ideal anchor. Good flexibility to twist through double-teams. Locates the ball quickly and pursues well laterally.

  Explosion: Quick burst to penetrate gaps. Can shock his opponent with his quickness, strong initial punch and quick hands to disengage. Has an explosive burst to close when he sees a playmaking opportunity and can make the eye-popping collision without needing much space to gather momentum.

  Strength: Good, but not elite strength, especially in his lower body. Has a tendency to come up at the snap and can be pushed back because of it. Possesses very good natural strength, however, including in his core as he can twist through double teams. Very good hand strength to rip through blocks. Good strength for the pull-down and trip-up tackle.

  Tackling: Possesses a good closing burst and brings his hips to supply the big hit. Good strength for the drag tackle. Willing to lay out and has good hand-eye coordination to trip up the ballcarrier running away from him.

  Intangibles: Former high school basketball player who shows surprisingly quick feet. An ascending talent, but is nonetheless labeled as a player with some true bust potential, as there are concerns about his work ethic. Carries a little bit of extra weight around his middle and is more "country" strong than weight-room defined. Has developed a reputation as a dirty player; repeatedly flagged in 2010 for late hits and there have been instances when he has speared ballcarriers with his helmet, banged into their lower legs purposely and pushed off downed players to lift himself up. One of nine siblings.

• SI.com gave him a 3.22, their fourth-highest overall grade:

  Positives: Game-impacting defensive lineman whose star is on the rise. Displays great movement skills and an explosive burst to the action. Quickly changes direction and effectively makes plays down the line or chases the action in backside pursuit. Plays with good pad level, fires off the snap with a great first step, and shoots through the gaps up the field. Fast off the edge, effective in pursuit, and makes plays in every direction. Constantly doubled by the opposition yet remains a game changer.

  Negatives: Must improve his overall strength. Marginal hand use and displays limited moves getting off blocks. Lacks pure power and can be controlled by single blocker. Mostly a first move lineman that must beat opponents off the snap. Not known as a hard worker in practice.

  Analysis: Fairley comes off a career year in which he started the season hot and never let up through Auburn's national title game. He possesses the skills and athleticism to be used as a defensive tackle or two-gap end and has an enormous amount of upside. Fairley will be very productive at the next level if he improves the details of his game and works hard on and off the field.

• Pro Football Weekly:

  Positives: Very quick off the ball and disruptive. Has explosive hips and is a violent, head-snapping tackler. Good balance and agility. Has long arms and quick, active hands and knows how to keep defenders off his frame. Times the snap well, throws his hips in the hole and wins one-on-one matchups. Can split the double team. Excellent closing speed — smells blood. Rips off blocks and continually shows up behind the line of scrimmage. Flashed the ability to dominate and take over games, as he did late against LSU and Alabama. Plays with a mean streak and continually seeks to punish quarterbacks (knocked three out of games as a junior) and agitate blockers.

  Negatives: Plays too upright with an inconsistent pad level and stalls at the line of scrimmage if he does not win at the snap. Does not play with pop in his hands. Cannot dig his heels in the ground against the double-team — was pancaked vs. Georgia OG Clint Boling. Not a glass eater ideally suited to occupy blocks. Tends to freelance, lose gap integrity and, at times, lose the ball. Not smart or disciplined and brain freezes show up in his play. Lacks power and bulk strength. Is only a one-year producer and has underachiever tendencies — loafs on the backside and takes plays off. Lacks stamina. Plays dirty, seeks cheap shots and has been flagged for foolish, unsportsmanlike penalties. Needs to be pushed and is not a self starter.

  Summary: An explosive, finesse three-technique, Fairley could make your draft or break your heart. Showed he could be a dominating force for a national championship team, took over games and could be unblockable in the interior of a "40" front if he stays motivated and uses good technique. However, he will require a very nuanced, demanding positional coach and might need to be limited to 40 snaps per game to maximize his talent. The more highly he is drafted, the greater the likelihood that he will bust, as a big pay day easily could sap his motivation. Compares to Saints 2003 sixth-overall pick Johnathan Sullivan (a bust) and could fizzle out of the league as fast as he arrives if he enters a non-challenging, unstructured environment. Has boom-or-bust potential.

• New Era Scouting:

  Pass rush: Fairley is the premier one-gap defensive tackle in this year’s class due to his ability shoot the gap and get after the passer. Fairley finished 2010 with 12 sacks, including three in a standout performance against LSU. Most of his big plays come off the swim move. Has quick hands to get his arm over the blocker. Closes in a hurry and with aggression.

  Pursuit: Is a player who is almost always on the move toward the ball carrier. Has the athleticism to move all around the line. Despite being somewhat limited in experience, Fairley shows good run/pass recognition. When Fairley plays with a lot of effort, he can move all around the field to make a tackle. But some question if Fairley always gives full effort on every play. As sensational as he is on some plays, Fairley can be completely non-existent on others. It’s an issue that Auburn head coach Gene Chizik brought up early in the season. Fairley showed better effort toward the end the season, however.

  Quickness: For player of his size, Fairley has a great burst off the snap. Most of his game is centered around his quickness off the ball. Played basketball in high school and it shows in his foot speed. People will always compare Fairley to Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy and in the quickness category, he’s right there with them. Run defend: Is a long-armed defender who can be disruptive in the run game. Even where the run isn’t coming right at him, Fairley can impact the run game simply by reaching his arms out and rerouting the ball carrier. Does a lot of his work against the run against single blockers. Fairley doesn’t always do well against multiple blockers. Still, he can be an asset against the run by taking up multiple blockers.

  Strength: Doesn’t have the kind of strength where he can beat double teams on a consistent basis. Looks like he can get stronger in his lower body. Can get pushed bak too often. Has a frame to add 20 pounds without it having a negative impact on his game.

  Tackling: Fairley is a scary tackler. Every time he has room to make a hit, it’s an explosive one. If football doesn’t work for Fairley, his tackling shows he clearly has a future in pro wrestling. He frequently liked to suplex players. Several of Fairley’s tackles could get him fined in the NFL, so it will be interesting to see if he’ll continue his tackling technique at the next level.

  Technique: Shows good hand fighting. Uses his hands well to keep blockers out of his pads. Has long arms, which is beneficial to his technique. Doesn’t take false steps that get him out of position.

Is it time? Yes, it's time. It’s more than time. It’s way past time to find out if Nick Fairley will be a boom, or a bust. It’s time to find out if he’ll be the next Warren Sapp or the next Johnathan Sullivan. It’s time to consult the One True Oracle of NFL Success: YouTube highlight reels!

First up, an absolute gem. Here's a high school reel that's just phenomenal. There's no spot shadowing, but just look for the defensive end that's significantly bigger than the defensive tackles, and running faster than the linebackers. He's #90. The best part is around 1:25 when he beats the RT and sacks the quarterback before an unblocked linebacker can get there. No, wait--the BEST part is the MUSIC:

Here's a nice little clip that shows an awesome spin/swim combo sequence at 0:12:

Here's a short film entitled "Fairley Nasty," an ode to Fairley's biggest hits and dirtiest plays throughout his two-year career at Auburn. Of special note are the explosion SF/X laid on top of Ludacris' "Move, B*tch," and Papa Roach's "Last Resort" (!):

Here's Aaron Aloysius not letting me down, providing really nice cutups of Fairley vs. Georgia. This is some proper film right here, and you can see just how frequently, and how hard, he hit A.J. Green that day. I like at 0:33, where the takes on a double-team, anchors, and makes the tackle. Also note 1:50 where he's chop blocked, and shrugs it off.

What stands out to me is Fairley’s body type. Despite being a shade taller and several pounds lighter than Suh, Fairley’s build is completely the opposite. Suh’s upper body is jawdroppingly massive; I’ve said many times that his shoulders are the size of entire hams. From the front of Suh’s chest to the back of his back seems like a distance of nearly three feet. He’s very, very lean through the core but has reasonably thick arms and legs. Fairley, meanwhile, has shockingly thin shoulders and arms for his size; most of his weight is through the middle: he’s big in the britches, thick-thighed, and—while not sloppy fat—has a little fuel tank for his sack machine.

Despite these similar sizes hung on totally different frames, Fairley’s game is almost identical to Suh’s. Similar great first step, similar penetration, similar inside/outside edge rushing ability. He’s not “bad” against the run, but he’s not often going to drop anchor and eat space like Grady Jackson. He plays with an obvious mean streak, and will likely draw some after-the-whistle penalties for crossing the line. He’s too upright at times, and sometimes vacates his lane for the sake of penetration.

Immediately, Fairley projects as a three-tech, just like Suh. However, Suh is a finished product, physically. The only thing he can develop on his frame is adding the gut he doesn’t have—and that would do more harm than good. Fairley, as Rob Rang said above, is “more ‘country’ strong than weight-room defined.” Suh just needs maintain, physically, and focus on execution and technique. But Fairley ought to be able to add significant musculature and strength through NFL conditioning. As he gets up to the “weight class” above Suh, in the 315-325 range, he should evolve into a no-less dominant 1-tech throughout his career.

The comparison I keep seeing is Warren Sapp. Sapp started off as a very similarly built 290-pound penetrating 3-tech, and slowly worked his way up to being a 330-plus-pound 3-4 two-gap DE, before realizing he was better thinner and dropping 50 pounds. I’d hope Fairley could find a happy medium as a two-way 1-tech pushing about 320, very similar to how Corey Williams is built now—only even more explosive than Williams.

Of course, I can't talk about Fairley without talking about the "whispers." I can't write thousands of words about Nick Fairley without addressing the "rumors." Some think he takes plays off. Some think he doesn’t practice hard. Some think he’s too wrapped up in himself, and will put his feet up as soon as he cashes an NFL paycheck. These "whispers," as far as I can tell, are just people repeating and amplifying each other—there’s never a source, named or un-. Whispers become rumors, rumors become facts. It got so bad that some started speculating Fairley might be the target of a smear campaign. Ultimately, Fairley has never been in a lick of trouble off the field, and—excepting his treatment of quarterbacks—he’s well-behaved on it, too.

Jason Braddock of TheXlog.com summed up my thoughts perfectly:

The concept of the NFL combine is genius and it works great for the coaches / general managers who understand the nature of the beast. Good drafting teams start rumors about prospects that they want to fall to them. Bad drafting teams believe these rumors and play right into the hands of these superior teams. My Golden Rule for the draft assessment is: Listen to everything, believe nothing. What I mean by that is, when you here character rumors, injury concerns, etc, you listen to them but you don’t chalk these up as facts.  Instead you do extensive research and find out if these are actual truth based rumors.

Some teams do this, we call those team “playoff” teams. Why? It’s simple, they’re in the playoffs every year because they do the leg work and know fact from fiction. Many NFL teams have become lazy and rely too heavily on the NFL combine. This goes against the first thing I was taught in scouting and that is that your evaluation should be 90% based on game film. When did Nick Fairley get passed by Marcell Dareus in most media draft boards? The answer is after the combine. The game film didn’t change after the combine, but Dareus ran a quick 10 yard split. Who cares, he ran that same speed on the game film that we watched in January, February, March and so on. This shouldn’t make you change your rankings.

CBSsports.com writer Pete Prisco wrote a couple more really nice articles defending Fairley, which ended with a line sure to warm any Lions fan’s heart: “Nick Fairley is the best player in this draft, no matter how many people try to knock him down.” Well, the Lions got the best player in the draft—and Fairley got everything he dreamed about during the long two seasons he spent in junior college. People tried to knock him down, but now it’s his turn to knock people down.

Technorati Tags: nfl,nfl draft,nick fairley,detroit lions,ndamukong suh,gunther cunningham,jim schwartz,defensive line,scouting reports

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Old Mother Hubbard: Wrap-Up, Analysis, Needs List

Yesterday, I posted the final post-draft “awesomeness” heat map of the Lions’ current depth chart. I didn’t really analyze it, per se, just provided a list of clarifying/qualifying bullet points. The coolest thing about data visualization is that it simply is, and anyone can understand at a glance what’s going on. That said, I slaved over making the thing, so you folks are probably curious about what caught my eye in the process.

The offensive line needs help. Clearly, the center and right guard were well below average last season; Stephen Peterman in particular played poorly (no doubt due to myriad injuries, as he was much much better in 2009). With the exception of right tackle, there isn’t a quality backup anywhere along the line. The left side of the line is actually quite good, though; if Peterman and Raiola return to their usual standard of play, the starting five should be one of the better lines in the game. If not—or if the injury bug bites—the Lions’ line could be in big, big trouble. I also have big concerns for 2012 and beyond; Hilliard, Fox, and/or Culbreath need to stake their claims on future starting roles.

Calvin Johnson is so good. Megatron was the Lions’ best player in 2010, and it wasn’t close. He was the third-best graded WR in the NFL, and two-and-a-half standard deviations from the mean! I think Lions fans forget how good he is, because they know how good he can be. We keep waiting for him to haul in 140 catches for 2,400 yards and 30 touchdowns—and if anyone ever could do that, it’s him—but maybe we should stop a minute to appreciate 77 catches for 1,120 yards and 12 touchdowns, especially given the quarterback situation.

Non-Megatron receivers need to step up. It’s no secret that Bryant Johnson and Derrick Williams simply haven’t produced. Johnson has struggled mightily to catch the ball, and Williams, when used, isn’t getting open. Nate Burleson is dangerous with the ball in his hands, but isn’t a threat to stretch the field. If Titus Young can make an immediate impact, Johnson and Burleson should have much more room to operate. I’m counting the tight ends here, too; Tony Scheffler had a mysterious stretch of poor form after an electrifying first few games, and Brandon Pettigrew dropped an awful lot of balls he got his hands on (and got called for ten penalties!). Both of them have the ability to be top ten receiving TEs—if either of them can play like it, it’ll be a huge boost to the offense.

The defensive line is strong and deep, but wasn’t invincible last season. Ndamukong Suh likely won’t improve his sack total from last year—in fact, I’d expect a regression—but his overall effectiveness should be better than we see here. Corey Williams played like a man possessed, but his horrific penalty total (15 called, 2 declined/offset) put a huge damper on his final grade. Nobody had more penalties called, or assessed, than Williams. Nobody in the NFL, at any position. That’s not just aggression leading to the occasional jump—that’s a chronic problem that extends drives, in a defense built to stop them.

The much-maligned back seven is just below average. As much as observers like to pretend the Lions’ back seven consists of Louis Delmas and six tackling dummies, none of the presumed starters were more than a standard deviation below NFL average. Amari Spievey actually turned in the best grade of the back seven, and Louis Delmas was playing through a severe groin injury. The Lions added Erik Coleman to the safety corps, and should add a corner and/or linebacker in free agency. If they can get a little better in a couple of spots, the excellent defensive line will be backed by a perfectly average ‘backer corps and secondary.

That said, the back seven dominates the remaining shopping list:

• An impact two-way defensive end to rotate soon, and develop for 2012 [Upon further review, Lawrence Jackson fits this bill].
• A credible backup middle linebacker.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB ready to start right away.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB to rotate soon, and develop for 2012 [I'm giving Doug Hogue the benefit of the doubt here].
• An athletic cover corner, ready to take over one side in 2012.
• If Chris Houston leaves, a complete two-way corner, ready to start right away.
• A left tackle who can be groomed to replace Jeff Backus [I like Culbreath, and have hope for Jason Fox, but calling this need "filled" is too much of a stretch].
• A center who will be ready to rotate at guard soon, and compete at center for 2012.
• A field-stretching #2 WR.
• A power back to complement Jahvid Best.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,team needs,nfl draft,nfl free agency

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Three Cups Deep: The Parable of the One-Eyed Beggar

Long ago, there was a one-eyed man, living as a beggar on the street. He survived on the scraps and crumbs left behind by those around him. Mostly, he was ignored—though occasionally some would cruelly mock his misfortune. One day he awoke to find, miraculously, he had two fully-functioning eyes. He leapt to his feet, and sang praises to the heavens.

He ran to the nearest store, and with his last copper bought thick paper stock, ink, and quill. He fashioned a sign that said “EYE FOR SALE.” He returned to his begging spot, proudly holding the sign high. A passerby asked, “You suffered so long for want of a second eye; why now would you willingly sell the first?” The beggar replied, “I figure I can probably get like a fourth round pick for it.”

. . . perhaps that’s a little dramatic. But I’m astonished by Lions fans’ talk about trading Sammie Hill. Yes, the addition of Nick Fairley means that the Lions now have both quality and depth on the defensive line—but that’s not a situation that needs fixing. Suh and Fairley will rotate with Hill and Williams to keep all of them fresh for four quarters—and sixteen games. With those four tackles—plus the corps of ends they have in KVB, Avril, and Jackson—the Lions’ defensive line will be able to rotate in many different looks and packages without compromising the effectiveness of the line.

Not only is that a good thing, it’s the design goal of the defense! As long as that defensive line is dominant—disrupting the pass and containing the run—the Lions’ scoring defense is going to be at least decent, no matter what’s going on in the back seven. However, if injuries or fatigue begin to take their toll, and the DL performance slips, suddenly the whole thing turns to cheesecloth.

Still, let’s say Hill weren’t a member of the defense’s signature position group, where they’re trying to stack talent upon talent at almost any cost. He was a fourth-round draft pick, and is still on his rookie contract. His upside is phenomenal; he has the raw physical tools to become an elite run-stopping DT in the mold of Pat Williams or Grady Jackson. We knew Hill would take a few years to reach that potential—and this year’s Old Mother Hubbard shows that Hill’s already better than most run-stopping 4-3 DTs. So, he's already a valuable contributor, he may be developing into an elite player as we speak, and the cost of keeping him around is minimal. That is the last guy you’d ever want to trade.

Just look at the market, here: Lawrence Jackson was two years removed from being a first-round pick, and had flashed potential despite being a bad schematic fit. The Lions got him for a sixth-rounder, and he played at an extremely high level when called upon. Do really want the Lions to flip Sammie Hill for a sixth, fifth, fourth, or even third-round pick and watch him go to the Pro Bowl elsewhere, while the Lions start from scratch with another rookie?

I’m fascinated by the modern NFL fan’s drive for mediocrity. Whether it’s from playing too much Madden franchise mode, or a lack of understanding what separates the wheat from the chaff in the NFL, we fans (I include myself) want to take our team’s resources and trowel them evenly across the roster: we cheer for our team to get 22 “pretty good” starters.

Wherever we see a “hole” in the starting lineup, we want it “filled”—preferably with a second- or third-round pick if the “hole” isn’t on the OL or DL. In a startling flip from fan attitudes of the 80s, we detest it when a high draft pick, or rich free agent contract, is lavished on a non-lineman (I blame this on the dominance of the 1990s Cowboys). Further, once that “hole” is “filled,” and we have an “extra” player, we want to flip him for whatever we can get because he’s “being wasted.” We believe that all rookies are guaranteed to hit their “upside.” We pretend that injuries either do not happen or are the ineffable will of the Football Gods, so preparing for them is folly.

All told, the modern NFL fan seems to want their team comprised entirely of second- and third-round picks—drafted to fill immediate holes at the time of their drafting—plus mid-tier recycled veteran free agents. Oh, and an offensive line comprised entirely of former first-rounders. No holes, no superstars, no difference-makers either way, just 22 B-minus starters with nothing behind them. The problem with all this is that that team would suck.

What's the lesson here? That the Lions, for the first time in forever, have skill AND talent AND depth. All three are required to win in the NFL; we got dramatic proof of that at the tail end of last season! Sammie Hill and Lawrence Jackson and Bobby Carpenter and Nate Vasher and Shaun Hill and Ashlee Palmer and Drew Stanton won those four straight games as much as Ndamukong Suh and Jahvid Best and Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson did; maybe more so.

We've waited so long for the Lions to rise up in strength and become a legitimate contender; don’t be so quick to cripple them.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,sammie hill,sammie lee hill,defensive tackles,defensive lines

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Meet the Cubs: Titus Young

 

2.12 (44): Titus Young
          Wide Receiver, Boise State

With all of the armchair scouting, mock drafts, media hyperventilation, and everything else that surrounds the NFL draft, there are very few surprises left. This is especially true for hardcore fans: just look through the Mlive.com article comments and forums in March; most of the Lion regulars have their preferred targets picked out through all seven rounds.

Very few, if any, had Titus Young on their list—most hadn’t heard of him! Yet another difference between armchair GMs and the pros: Jim Schwartz immediately Tweeted that the Lions had had their eye on Titus Young for a long time . . .

Tom Kowalski immediately told Lions fans not to worry, Titus Young would become a fan favorite. Young plays, talks, and Tweets with irrepressible emotion—from crying when the Lions drafted him, to exulting on the phone with Lions fans at the Hard Rock Café, to throwing himself headlong into becoming a Lion and a Detroiter:

. . . Young doesn't do anything halfway.

“Man Im Bout To Get #313 Tatted on My Chest, and #BringinBackTheBadboys on my Back! Would yall Love me then????????”

It’s amazing, then, that in spotlight of Los Angeles, Young blended into the shadows. At University High School, Young’s rail-thin frame and talented teammates kept him from drawing much attention from big schools, despite being named All-League his sophomore and junior years. But then he attended the USC Nike Camp, and his performance put him on major-school radar—and his unbelievable senior season was too huge for anyone to ignore. As a receiver, Young caught 66 passes for 1,359 and 10 TDs, plus 49 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. As a defensive back, Young had 97 tackles, 11 INTs, 8 PDs and a sack. For good measure, he returned 18 punts for 392 yards and 3 TDs, and 11 kickoffs for 363 and 1 score.

The Pac-10 offers came rolling in: Oregon, Washington, Washington State, Arizona State . . . he was thrilled to see his stock rising, and started lining up officials. Scout.com ranked him a three-star recruit, and so did Rivals.com. On December 11th, 2006, Young told Rivals:

I'm still sending film out right now and I think that could result in even more offers for me. I had a great season and honestly feel I'm one of the top athletes in the country. Schools are just now finding out about me, that's why I'm keeping that last visit open. I want to take all all my trips and then I'll make my decision close to Signing Day."

A few days later, Boise State made an in-home visit. After that visit, Young immediately visited Boise's campus. After that visit, Young immediately committed to Boise State—just six days after telling Rivals he wanted to play it all the way out to the end! It must have seemed like a perfect fit . . . so what happened?

“I was thinking it would be best for him to go someplace else,” [BSU Head Coach Chris] Petersen said.

According to Chadd Cripe at the Idaho Statesman, Young’s impact on the Broncos was immediate. The 2006 team that beat Oklahoma featured three senior wideouts, and Young’s talent and personality turned heads—those of his teammates’, and the media. The spotlight loved Titus, and he loved it right back. The 17-year-old caught a pass in every one of the Broncos’ games that year, and finished third on the team in receptions (44), second in yards (639), and third in TDs (5).  Still, he struggled to hold onto the ball, and struggled to maintain perspective. 

Young was suspended for the first quarter of the 2007 Hawaii Bowl, yet still fumbled twice in the remainder of the game. Still, that humbling experience wasn’t quite humbling enough. Young tuned out his coaches, put himself first, broke some team rules, and was ultimately suspended for all but three games in 2008. It reached the point where both parties were ready to move on.

Still, Young persevered in class, even while barred from team activites:

“I really just wanted to go home for a while, sit on my couch, lock myself in a cage,” he said. “That’s how I really felt at the time. If I would have ran, I would have been running from my problems. I’ve never been a type to run from a problem. You’ve always got to hit it in the mouth and stay strong and endure and have faith.”

Petersen offered him “one more shot" during the practice sessions for the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, and Titus took it seriously. He remained on the team for the 2009 season, and in spectacular fashion—he finished with 79 catches, 1041 yards, and 1o TDs through the air, plus 15 carries for 138 and 2 on the ground. He was named first-team All-WAC as both a receiver and returner, but that was just the warmup act.

His senior season, Young hauled in 71 balls for a BSU single-season 1,215 yards (that 17.1 YpC!) and 9 TDs. He added 14 carries for 91 yards and a score. He again was named first-team All-WAC, and third team AP All-America. His truncated career at Boise State was still enough to place him #1 all-time in both single-season and career receiving yards.

Young wasn’t done proving himself at Boise State, though. After a disappointing Combine where he cut an official 4.53, Young really needed a great Pro Day performance to assure teams his on-film game speed wasn’t just an illusion generated by WAC competition. Depending on who you ask, Young’s two Pro Day runs averaged somewhere between 4.39 and 4.43, easing the concerns about his timed speed. He dropped no passes, and the National Football Post reported Young successfully boosted his draft stock back into the high second-round/late first-round territory (which, obviously yes). But hey, let's hear it from the scouts themselves:

• Sideline Scouting:

  Positives: Has good but not great speed... Smart player, knows where he is on the field at all times, plays the sidelines well... Runs nice crisp routes, slips well into zone coverage... Quick off the line of scrimmage... has good change of direction ability and cuts well in the open field... Explosive deep threat, gets behind coverage with ease... Dynamic return man, can return both punts and kickoffs in the NFL... Tough to bring down when the ball is in his hands, keeps a low center of gravity and slips through tackles... Elite short area burst, is an absolute terror with the football in his hands... Terrific body control, adjusts well to balls in the air and plays the sidelines well.

  Negatives: Very small, would like to see him add some weight to his frame... Ran slower at the combine than most expected... Questionable hands, drops some catchable balls... Looks up field before securing the football... Average run blocker, size limits his ability to be much of a factor in this area... Stats may be inflated due to playing in Boise State's high powered offense against WAC competition... Comes with character concerns, missed most of 2008 due to suspension.

• CBSSports.com:

  Strengths: Very quick receiver who eats up the cushion out of his breaks and gets on top of the corner in a hurry. Has a solid second gear to get down the field after initial moves and can run away from defenders. Explodes out of his stance with no wasted steps and does a nice job of stemming his routes. Is a sudden athlete who moves seamlessly in and out of his breaks without sacrificing acceleration. Maintains his balance when cutting and keeps his feet under him in his routes. Runs crisp routes to earn consistent separation from defenders and is shifty enough out of his stance to slip press coverage. Has great lateral quickness in the open field and can create on his own after the reception. Sells out to make tough catches and fully extends his body and arms when going over the middle. Possesses strong wrists to snag the ball and hold onto it in traffic. Tracks passes over either shoulder. Understands spacing and will not drift back into coverage. Versatile player who brings added value as both a kick and punt returner due to this combination of straight-line running, toughness and elusiveness.

  Weaknesses: Slight, thin frame that may not hold up in the NFL with his playing style. Loses focus and drops catchable passes. Concentration wavers all too often and will look to run upfield before securing the ball. Does not win jump balls often and struggles to out-leap defenders. Can be stymied at the line by physical corners and lacks the strength and drive to be an effective run blocker. Has nice timed speed, but lacks elite ability to burn by defensive backs on a consistent basis. Has a reputation as an egotistical player who can resist coaching.

• For the first Lion draftee this season, SI.com lists "Positives"! They graded Young a 2.80, practically equal to Mikel Leshoure:

  Positives: Productive college receiver with a consistent game. Fluid releasing off the line and runs sharp routes, quickly getting into breaks and immediately coming back to the ball on exit. Displays terrific focus and concentration and makes the reception away from his frame. Possesses strong hands, showing the ability to snatch passes from the air. Easily adjusts the errant throw, effortlessly makes the reception downfield, and elusive running after the catch. Reads the defense and settles into the open spot on the field. Sneaky fast and finds a way to get behind opponents. Gives effort blocking downfield and gets solid results.

  Negatives: More quick than fast. Erratic workout at the combine. Lacks top size and likely to struggle handling jams or battling at the next level.

  Analysis: Young was exceptionally productive the past two seasons and turned in a terrific performance at the Senior Bowl in January. He's a prospect who comes to play on game day and should be a productive third receiver while also being an asset on special teams.

• Pro Football Weekly:

  Positives: Exceptional burst, acceleration and deep speed to stretch the field vertically. Fluid strider with big-time turnover. Quick-footed to slip the jam. Is sudden in and out of breaks and makes speed cuts smoothly. Very good hands and concentration — tracks the ball well over his shoulder. Outruns angles and can take it the distance. Agile and elusive in the open field. Versatile and highly productive — consistent playmaker as a receiver and kickoff returner.

  Negatives:

  Has a slight build with short arms and lacks bulk — is not equipped to work inside, and durability could be a considerable issue. Can be outmuscled and does not always come down with the contested catch. Has limited run strength and exposes his frame to some shots. Occasional concentration drop. Soft blocker. Was immature early in his career. Production was slightly inflated by WAC defenses and was rarely challenged by comparably athletic cornerbacks. Did not run through the gauntlet drill at the Combine with any tempo.

  Summary: Thinly built, tight-skinned, confident, competitive, explosive deep threat whose loose hips and lateral agility set him apart from generic burners. Versatility increases his value —possesses the vertical speed to scalp a secondary as a vertical “X” receiver, the suddenness and run-after-catch ability to create mismatches from the slot and the burst to pose a threat as a primary kickoff returner. Multifaceted playmaking ability could even push him into the first round, though his slight frame could keep evaluators at bay and shorten the shelf life of his NFL career.

Of course, none of this is why you are here. You are here for the TRUTH. You want to KNOW if Titus Young is bound for the Hall of Fame or the Charles Rogers Failure Valhalla. Fortunately the One True Oracle of NFL Success, YouTube Highlight Reels, loves Titus Young more than any prospect I’ve ever had the pleasure of breaking down for Meet the Cubs. You know a kid is a player when he has HIGH SCHOOL YouTube Highlight Reels, especially one that's such a love letter to the art:

I’m . . . I’m not saying someone who is really into Titus Young is also into video editing, but there’s a treasure trove at YouTube just too big to embed. Here’s a nice collection of straight highlights, followed by a very interesting meta/narrative/trick catch/interview thing that you don’t see every day (which also includes straight highlights). When contrasted to the high school clip above, the difference between who Titus Young was a kid, and who Titus Young is as a man is dramatic, and unmistakable.

Here's a special treat. Aaron Aloysius of Draft Breakdown does some really, really nice videos that spotlight individual prospects throughout individual games, and this one of Young vs. Nevada is a gem:

First of all, the speed thing. Young definitely plays much faster than the WAC opponents, and I believe he’d still be electrifying against AQ conference competition. I got frustrated while watching through these, because it seemed that so much of the running time of each video was Young blowing by everyone to the house—over, and over, and over again . . .

There’s no doubt that Young is a long strider with good top speed, but even given how much of his body is legs, it’s astounding to see how quick his foot speed is, and how naturally he chops his stride short to change direction—and how quickly he digs back in and gets to that gliding, cruising speed. Normally, those types of runners struggle to get in and out of cuts quickly, but as you see above his footspeed and instincts neutralize that tendency.

In my mind, there’s no doubt that if Young applies himself as he did his senior year, he’ll be able to make an immediate impact here. My question is, how does Scott Linehan plan to use him, in combination with Nate Burleson? As the WR Old Mother Hubbard showed us, the Lions desperately need a field stretcher, a playmaker who can get open downfield and break medium routes to the house. He did that in college, over and over and over again—but can he do it in the NFL? Burleson is a hair taller and decidedly thicker; so is he really the natural choice to slide inside while Young plays #2?

From what the scouts above say, Young will actually be better suited for the outside than Burleson, because Burleson has the strength to handle hits and traffic, and mix it up with linebackers, while Young has the speed to get open deep. Young shouldn’t see much press coverage, given all the short- and medium-depth options the Lions have (Burleson, Pettigrew, Sheffler, Best); He’ll simply be asked to fly—and that, he can do. I see Young used right away as the #2 receiver in three-receiver sets . . . and after that, who knows? Maybe the spotlight loves Young even on the biggest stage of all.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,titus young,nfl draft,wide recievers,scouting reports

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Meet the Cubs: Mikel LeShoure

2.25 (57): Mikel LeShoure
          Running Back, Illinois

On the day he declared for the NFL Draft, Mikel LeShoure’s words matched those of thousands of other kids who’ve gone through the process. It’s practically boilerplate:

"I believe I have accomplished everything I can at the college level and want to go after my dream: playing in the NFL.”

For millions, playing in the NFL is a dream they’ll never have the opportunity to pursue, because they weren’t born with the talent. Mikel LeShoure was born with talent, but little else—Mikel LeShoure was born in prison.

Mikel, and his mother Jacqueline “Jazz” Frasier-Jones, faced an almost impossible climb up life’s mountain. Post-release, Jazz battled drug and alcohol addictions (and prior drug convictions), and worked multiple jobs to provide for Mikel. Meanwhile, Mikel spent the earliest years of his life with his aunt and stepmother; his father was in sporadic contact, fighting drug demons and prison sentences of his own. All three persevered, though: his mother has stayed clean and sober for 15 years, father got a good job, got back in contact, and was present at Mikel’s draft announcement, and Mikel racked up 4,652 yards and 52 rushing touchdowns at Champaign Centennial High School.

That’s Champaign, as in Champaign, Illinois—and from the sound of it, Illinois head coach Ron Zook didn’t let LeShoure, a three-star RB recruit per both Scout.com and Rivals.com leave his backyard. Listed at 6’-0”, 220 pounds, LeShoure had offers from Iowa and Wisconsin, as well as Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, and Boston College. He was Rivals’ 28th-ranked running back, nationally, and Scout’s 52nd.

Mikel saw some platoon time right away his freshman year, and even started a game. However, he got into a fight with teammate Jeff Cumberland, now a TE with the Jets, and Cumberland broke LeShoure’s jaw. LeShoure spent six weeks on a liquid-only diet, and he realized he could stand to drop his freshman fifteen. In the layoff between his freshman and sophomore year, Mikel went from 237 back down to a very lean (4.8% body fat) 228. In car circles, there’s a classic quote from Lotus founder Colin Chapman: “If you want to add speed, add lightness,” and that’s exactly what LeShoure did.

Besides his diet, Mikel knew that he had to make lifestyle and attitude changes, too, if he was to be the lead dog in the Illini’s four-tailback pack:

"I'm bigger, stronger, faster — all of that," LeShoure said. "The main things were my diet and not going out and partying, handling it and being smart. I stayed in more, just hanging out with the family. It was pretty easy because the No. 1 thing I thought about was football season and what would make me better."

With his maturing mind, maturing frame, and returned explosion, LeShoure notched multiple hundred-yard games his sophomore year, culminating in a 184-yard explosion against Fresno State that got him Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors. He used his size, speed, and improved conditioning to wear down defenses; his second-half YpC was 7.6, and all five of his rushing TDs came after halftime. He was named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten.

In his junior year, Mikel LeShoure blew everything up. I’ll just quote the official bio:

AWARDS & HONORS
• College Football Performance Awards Running Back of the Year (2010)
• Second-team All-American by the Associated Press (2010)
• Third-team All-American by Rivals.com and Phil Steele (2010)
• Honorable mention All-American by SI.com and Pro Football Weekly (2010)
• First-team All-Big Ten by both coaches and media (2010)
• 2010 Texas Bowl MVP
• 2010 Team MVP and Most Outstanding Offensive Back

RECORDS
• Illinois season rushing yards (1,697)
• Illinois season points scored (122)
• Illinois season total touchdowns (20) and rushing touchdowns (17 - tied with Rashard Mendenhall)
• Illinois season 100-yard rushing games (9) and consecutive 100-yard rushing games (5)
• Illinois single-game rushing yards - 330 vs. Northwestern at Wrigley Field, 11/20/10
• Finished sixth on the UI career rushing list (2,557) and second in school history in all-purpose yards (1,893)

Got all that? Mikel LeShoure was one of the best running backs in the nation in 2010, with some truly astounding numbers and performances. Of course, Michigan fans remember LeShoure’s five-touchdown game against them, but Mikel’s real masterwork was the Northwestern game at Wrigley Field, where he carried the ball a whopping thirteen times at a staggering 10.0 YpC clip, for a crushing 330 yards and two touchdowns. He was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, Walter Camp Foundation National Player of the Week, Rivals.com National Player of the Week and College Football Performance National Performer of the Week for that magnum opus.

Now, let’s see what the experts are saying.

Sideline Scouting:

Positives: Great size, very strong build... Plays faster on tape than timed speed... Does a great job holding the football close to his body... Very quick feet, reaches his top speed almost immediately which makes him a big play threat... Gets his first 15-20 yards in a hurry, tough to contain... Runs through tackles, does a great job getting through trash and running between the tackles... Keeps his legs moving at all times, very hard to slow down... Runs with low pad level, delivers hits rather than absorb them... Great vision, waits for his blockers... Soft hands, is growing to be a capable receiver out of the backfield... Put up big numbers against tough Big 10 defenses, had only one game this year with less than 75 rushing yards... One of the few backs in this class that has the potential to be a true workhorse.

Negatives: Really has only had one great season thus far... Often tries to break the big play rather than settle for a short gain, is prone to some negative yardage plays... Broke his jaw in 2008 after an altercation with a teammate at Illinois... Conditioning was a concern in the past... Takes most of his handoffs out of the shotgun in Illinois' spread option offense... Ran poorly at combine.

CBSSports.com:

Inside running: Powerful back, gets behind his pads when running inside. Runs with lean, and has a small strike zone for which opponents to get a square hit. Good vision to cut away from traffic, very smooth in his cuts. Keeps legs moving after initial contact. Can jump over piles near the line. If the line provides a big hole, he has an elite burst to hit second level at full speed. Excellent ball security, keeps it high and tight. Must avoid stopping to run outside when defenders penetrate, instead taking the couple of yards behind his line. Usually uses his fullback when in the I-formation, but must trust him in short yardage situations. Sells fake handoffs.

Outside running: Thick upper- and lower-body build but he has the vision and quick feet to bounce outside as if he were a smaller back. Exceptional burst makes him capable of turning the corner to break off chunks of yardage. Has patience and vision to take a pitch and find a cutback lane and explode through it. Keeps his pad level low outside, which combined with a low center of gravity and strong legs, make him tough to tackle. Not afraid to push a pile or carry a defender a few yards after initial contact. Does not go out of bounds right away, willing to lower a shoulder to get a couple of extra yards.

Compares to: Ryan Mathews, Chargers -- Mathews had a stellar junior season but didn't stand out in San Diego, battling ankle problems until late in the season. Leshoure has the same combination of open-field burst and power, with a chance to be an impact rookie.

I don't know if I'm taking crazy pills or just not a subscriber or what, but SI.com apparently only lists "negatives" this year. They graded him at 2.82, "FIRST-YEAR CONTRIBUTOR," though:

Negatives: Loses a lot of momentum when he must quickly change direction. Not a creative ball carrier. Does not consistently run with an aggressive style. Effective when he gives effort blocking yet not consistent in that area. Cannot run to daylight in the open field. Has an upright running style that leads to a lot of heavy hits.

Pro Football Weekly:

Positives: Looks every bit the part with a chiseled, NFL physique with little body fat. Sturdy runner equipped to make a living between the tackles. Quick-footed and shifty and shows some shimmy in the hole. Can get to and through the second level. Barrels through contact. Can handle a heavy workload and responds to a lather. Soft hands. Physical cut blocker. Outstanding production — paced Big Ten running backs his final two seasons with 6.4 yards per rush. Has a 38-inch vertical jump.

Negatives: Inconsistent down-to-down compete level. Does not attack holes, and too much of his production is blocked for him — was barely touched on long gains in career-best 330-yard performance against Northwestern. Is tight in the hips. Lacks extra gear to break away and play speed is not exceptional. Average vision and run instincts — the game does not come natural to him. Does not run angry and is not as powerful or as punishing as he could be.

Summary: A downhill runner who looks every bit the part, Leshoure carried the offense and flashes starter-caliber ability, though he could require time to acclimate to a complementary big-back role and handle the physicality of the NFL game. Sheer size and bellcow potential will appeal most to physical, ground-oriented attacks such as that of the Dolphins, Steelers, Jets, Titans or Lions.

But what do “the experts” really know? We have indisputable, infallible, visual evidence—the one and only prognosticator of future NFL success: YOUTUBE HIGHLIGHT REELS!!

FIrst, the highlights of that incredible day against Northwestern:

Next, we have some Illinois offense-only "every snap" videos; first the aforementioned Michigan game, and then the 2010 Texas Bowl vs. Baylor (the pic above is LeShoure accepting the Texas Bowl MVP trophy). Lots of non-LeShoure snaps, of course, but you’re getting the lumps along with the good stuff, here, too:

Finally, a true and proper YouTube highlight reel, complete with hype music:

LeShoure reminds me of another Lions running back, one who stood a very similar 6’-1”, 224: James Stewart. Stewart, like LeShoure, made a lot of hay between the tackles—and if Stewart lacked a certain je ne sais quoi in comparison, he probably hit a little bit harder. Both had excellent acceleration into “good” straight-line speed, both played faster than their reputation or clock times would suggest. Stewart, though, struggled mightily to stay healthy . . . let’s hope LeShoure doesn’t have that problem.

LeShoure has wonderful stop/start for a man his size, and you see it deployed to his advantage many times up above. He also has nicely fluid legs that let him redirect and cut while keeping his shoulders square and his upper body quiet. He appears to have nice hands, but for some reason wasn’t used much in the passing game—and I don’t think he’ll be thrown to much here, either.

His vision seems to be okay, but not as prescient as Best’s; he doesn’t have that Sandersesque “I’m cutting this way and setting my shoulders that way, thereby juking the guy in front of me and freezing the guy behind him” way of seeing the field. Sometimes he seems to go for the home run when he just needs to get four, and sometimes, he plows ahead when there was another lane open. Remember, he only started one full season; he has a lot of learning left to do. Further, unlike Kevin Smith, Mikel Leshoure has a lot of tread left on his tires—extremely important for a mostly-between-the-tackles back.

In short, Mikel LeShoure looks to be an excellent complement to Jahvid Best, much the way Stewart combined with Fred Taylor in Jacksonville. This isn’t a “thunder and lightning” situation, like Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne, or Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott. Some folks had LeShoure rated as their #1 workhorse back due to Ingram’s injury concerns; he and Best will doubtlessly find a mutually beneficial workload ratio. Together, they’ll spell each other, make each other more effective, and back each other up—the Lions’ offense shouldn’t ever be without a tailback that can keep defenses honest.

Researching this piece has me deep in thought about the power of the NFL, the power of people’s dreams, and the incredible diversity of paths these young men take to achieve glory. The truth is, whether you were born in a correctional facility, or grew up down the street from Bobby Layne’s house in an exclusive suburb, it takes incredible dedication, hard work, perseverance—and still, even, a little luck—to make it to the NFL. For most of these rookies, the hard part is just beginning . . . but for Mikel Leshoure, I bet, even two-a-days will still feel like a dream.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,mikel leshoure,2011 nfl draft,running backs,jahvid best,scouting reports

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Wide Receivers

Finishing up the Old Mother Hubbard series, post-draft, seems anti-climatic. However, there’s plenty of offseason left (maybe too much), and this cupboard isn’t done being restocked. To that end, we dig into the Pro Football Focus grades for wide receivers:

In this case, “Pass” refers to their grades in the passing game, i.e. their receiving performance. “Run” refers to their performance when running the football (on reverses, etc.). Unlike tight ends, run blocking and pass blocking are consolidated into “Blocking,” as receivers rarely pass block. The bright orange line represents Brandon Lloyd, the wideout who turned in the best overall grade. His +24 is predicated almost entirely on his +23.4 receiving grade (the other dimensions have little variation, and therefore little impact on the overall grade). Should we be surprised that Darrius Heyward-Bey is bringing up the rear? His –14 overall grade is the worst of any NFL wideout.

There’s a little thing in research called “confirmation bias,” where you seek out objective facts that confirm your preconceptions. That the Lions drafted a speedy receiver with their second pick suggests the Lions saw a need that had to be filled. I simply have to acknowledge this: I’m curious to see why the Lions thought they should pick a wideout so high, especially one whose game superficially matches Nate Burleson’s. I’m going to do this straight, but keep an eye out for signals that there’s a need to stretch the field.

The Lions’ WR corps is the most divergent unit on the team. Most of the other positions’ players are clustered around the thick black AVERAGE line, with only a few strong deviations in either direction. However, Calvin Johnson was PFF’s third-best graded receiver in 2010, with a very strong +14 overall grade. That was powered by a +14.5 receiving grade, and only having a single penalty called against him all year. He also had a (very) slightly above-average rushing grade.

Surprisingly, Megatron’s blocking grade was awful. He turned in a –3.1 blocking mark, well below the NFL average of –1.27, and ranked 94th out of 110 receivers. We don’t play Megatron to block, but you’d think a dude who has half a foot and sixty pounds on most corners could do better than that without breaking a sweat.

Statistically, Calvin caught 77 of 131 passes thrown at him; his percentage of passes caught is actually a little below-average at 58.8% (NFL average: 59.6%). Part of this is definitely due to system and quarterbacking. The top receiving percentage guys are typically slot receivers in pass-first, multi-WR offenses featuring quality quarterbacks; Megatron is a #1 wideout in a conventional offense driven by very inconsistent quarterback play last year. Still, I’d expected Calvin to be better than the mean at getting to, and hauling in, footballs.

Perhaps it's in the way they use him? Megatron was thrown at once every 7.8 snaps, exactly the NFL average. His yards per reception, 14.5, is definitely a notch above average, 13.2. But his touchdowns . . . well, his 13 12 vastly outstrip the league average of 4. It was my eyeball observation that the Lions tended to move between the 30s with passes to slot WRs, TEs, and RBs, then take shots at the endzone with Calvin once they got close. I divided receptions by touchdowns and . . . yup! Megatron was 10th in the NFL with 6.4 receptions per touchdown (4th with 5.9 if you count the Chicago Robbery). If the Lions were throwing to Calvin, they were often taking a shot at the end zone.

Bottom Line: Calvin Johnson was one of the NFL’s best receivers in 2010, despite being targeted the average number of times, primarily in the red zone, by a rotating cast of quarterbacks. If he and Matthew Stafford play all 16 games in 2011, expect Megatron to be #1 by a long shot.

The neon-green line a little ways inside of AVERAGE is Nate Burleson, the Lions’ second-splashiest free agent acquisition of 2010. Burleson turned in a –2.7 receiving grade, which couldn’t be offset by his run grade (+1.6, tied with Devin Hester for third-best in the NFL), or his relatively clean penalty grade. His very-slightly-below-average blocking performance (-1.4) didn’t help either.

Burleson’s negative grade didn’t come entirely from dropped passes, as Brandon Pettigrew’s clearly did. Burleson was ranked 56th in snaps-per-drop, with 17.0 (avg.: 17.6)—not great, but barely off the NFL median and mean. His YAC was excellent; 18th-best in the NFL with 5.6. He also made a defender miss on a post-catch tackle 8 times on just 55 receptions—the 21st-highest rate in the NFL (6.9 Rec./MT; NFL avg. 10.8).

That is the end of the good news for Burleson—who, outside of two great games against the Jets and Dolphins (+2.9, +3.4), turned in neutral or weakly negative grades the rest of the year (none worse than his –1.8 week one; most not nearly that low). He also, despite his well-above-average YAC rate, could only muster 11.4 yards per reception. Think about that: he ran for an average of 5.6 yards after every catch, but only gained 11.4 yards on an average catch. He caught the ball an average of 5.8 yards downfield! The picture this all paints is of a slightly-below-average receiver who struggles to get open deep—but becomes a genuine threat once the ball is in his hands.

Bottom Line: Nate Burleson proved to be a valuable asset, often getting open short and manufacturing yards in space when there were none to be had. However, he failed to provide a credible threat across from Calvin Johnson, instead carving out a niche in underneath the coverage. “Recepticon” has a future in this offense, but it will be much brighter if he can work in the space created by a legitimate deep threat.

Bryant Johnson is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Unfortunately, PFF’s grades are not kind to him. Johnson’s –13.1 overall grade is second-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Darrius Heyward-Bey. His –13.5 receiving grade is at the very bottom; it’s only his total lack of penalties called that pull him up above Heyward-Bey. His 37.5% of targets caught is also second-worst in the league; dropping 7 passes on just 48 targets didn’t help.

Here’s one positive tidbit for Johnson, though: his 4.2 catches per missed tackle means he was the third-hardest WR to bring down in the NFL. Should he happen to catch the ball, Bryant Johnson is tough to stop.

Bottom Line: Bryant Johnson struggled mightily to catch the ball in 2010, as he did in 2009. Though his body type and tool set would be the perfect complement to draw coverage away from Megatron and open up space for Burleson, his inability to catch the ball strips him of any credible threat—and of any real chance of returning for 2010.

Derrick Williams is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Williams's commitment to giving back to the Detroit community is as impressive as it is unheralded. Unfortunately, PFF’s graders took a dim view of his 2010 performance, as well. Williams, whose 154 snaps didn’t qualify him for the 25% cutoff, only saw time in weeks 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, and 13.

His –6 overall rating and –4.8 receiving rating didn’t come from doing a bad job catching the ball. The problem was, he was never open: in 154 snaps played, Lions quarterbacks only targeted him three times. Astonishingly, that’s the exact same number of penalty flags he drew (though one was called back).

Bottom Line: Despite being, by all appearances, a great guy and a good teammate, Williams’ single reception for 7 yards was probably the former #1 recruit in America’s last as a Lion.

SHOPPING LIST: Though no one identified WR as a need prior to the draft, had I managed to crank this one out I’d have been screaming from the mountaintops about this one, too. Calvin Johnson is a flat-out stud, Nate Burleson is a quality slot ninja, and after that the Lions have two guys who’ve proven they can’t help, and practice squadders like Brian Clark and Tim Toone. The need for a wideout with legitimate downfield speed and NFL hands to go with it was, in fact, desperate—and the Lions may have filled it with Titus Young.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,2011 nfl draft,calvin johnson,nate burleson,titus young,boise state,team needs

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Meet The Cubs: Doug Hogue

5.26 (157): Doug Hogue
          Outside Linebacker, Syracuse 

    Deep into the fifth round, the Lions finally “addressed a need.” That is, they finally took a player who plays a position that fans and media identified as a weak spot in the starting lineup. But just taking a linebacker doesn’t mean the “need” has been “addressed;” if a late-fifth-round player stepped off the plane and into the starting line, it’d be surprising. Does Doug Hogue really have what it takes to challenge for a starting role?

Hogue, at 6’-3”, 235 pounds, is slightly shy of prototypical Schwartzingham OLB size. However, he was the fifth-fastest linebacker at the combine, turning in an official 4.63. With that combination of height, weight, and speed, he has a lot of potential. Like Johnny Culbreath, Hogue has the tools to become an above-average NFL player. Unlike Johnny Culbreath, it’s because Hogue’s only been playing his position for two years.

Maybe we should back up. First, I suggest you read this SyracuseFan.com Doug Hogue feature, which gives you a peek into just how long and winding Hogue’s road to the NFL has been:

“Who the heck is that?” Roosevelt High coach Anthony Fiorelli demanded. “Who is that running the ball?”

The answer came from one of the assistants standing motionless in the backfield, his jaw scraping the grass.

“That’s Doug Hogue, coach. He goes to Mark Twain Elementary School. And he’s coming here next year.”

The first play from scrimmage Doug Hogue ever made with the varsity was a run anybody who witnessed it can still recount juke move for juke move.

Fiorelli certainly knew what he was watching. He’d coached three Division I players before. And even as a scrawny 14-year-old, he knew Hogue was destined to be the fourth.

“You just knew it right there,” Fiorelli said. “Even at that age, you knew he was going to play major college football.”

It’s a story Fiorelli loves to retell at every opportunity — not because he can boast some sort of eye for talent, but because its the first chapter of an urban fairy tale.

Hogue grew up into a pretty big boy: 6’-3", 210 pounds by the end of high school. Those moves and that speed in that big of a package is bound to attract attention—and sure enough, Hogue was rated a four-star RB prospect by Scout.com, and a three-star (5.6) by Rivals. He racked up a very impressive offer list of Big Ten and Big East schools, including Michigan and Michigan State. Neither made his top three, however; the Yonkers native went fifty miles along I-95 to Syracuse University.

Hogue was added to the mix at tailback, and in his first two years he tallied 483 yards on 111 carries. Oddly, 77 of those carries came in his freshman season. His role in the offense actually decreased his sophomore year, despite his YpC increasing from 3.26 to 6.63 (4.41 if you take out an 82-yard touchdown run)! Syracuse blog of record Troy Nunes Is an Absolute Magician suggests it’s because Greg Robinson hates Doug Hogue. But the man Michigan fans know as GERG (apparently in Syracuse territory it’s GROB) was axed, and Hogue was moved to outside linebacker after the first spring practice. Per The Cuse Connection, Hogue made an immediate impact:

In his first career start at linebacker against Minnesota in the Dome, Hogue recorded four tackles. Two weeks later against Northwestern Hogue led the defense with 11 tackles, seven of them solo. A week later against South Florida, Hogue added another 5 tackles and his first career sack.

He finished the year with 72 tackles, 49 solo, 16.5 TFL, and 9.5 sacks—6.5 of those TFL coming in one MONSTER game against Rutgers. That performance broke Syracuse’s single-game TFL record—previously owned (in part) by Dwight Freeney—AND earned Hogue the Walter Camp Football Foundation National Defensive Player of the Week. Phil Steele named Hogue to his All-Big East second team, to boot.

In Hogue's second season at linebacker, he switched to the weak side, and took it to the next level: starting all thirteen games, Hogue notched 95 tackles  (60 solo), 10.5 TFLs, and three sacks. He earned Player of the Week honors from both the Big East, and the Walter Camp Football Foundation again with his performance against West Virginia: 10 tackles (8 solo), 2 INTs, half a sack, and a batted pass. By the end of the season, he’d led the defense in tackles four more times, and was named First Team All-Big East.

In just two seasons (25 games) on defense, Hogue climbed his way to ninth on Syracuse’s all-time TFL leaderboard. Impressively, he put on about ten pounds from the start of his senior year to the combine, and didn’t slow down at all (the lower of his two 40 times was a blazing 4.52!). Comments from Hogue’s high school coach just before he committed to Syracuse indicate the Orange didn’t build Hogue’s body out to its maximum potential, either:

“Doug hasn’t touched a weight in his life. He’s incredibly strong from doing natural movements like pushups and pull-ups. Three kids had dislocated shoulders from trying to tackle him last year. His potential in the weight room is insane. I think he’ll end up a 235 pound running back running a 4.4 forty-yard dash. Our school is small. Our starting center last season was 140 pounds. If he played for Christian Brothers Academy in Syracuse, NY, Doug would be one of the top 20 recruits in the nation.”

What are the experts saying?

• My friends at Sideline Scouting:

  Positives: Athletic and speedy, transitioned from running back to linebacker in 2009... Has pretty good coverage skills for the position... Plays with a lot of passion, tries hard to improve as a linebacker... Had good production in 2009 and 2010, combined for 167 tackles, 12.5 sacks and three interceptions in those two seasons... Shows good quickness and flexibility, hips are pretty fluid... Has very good range, can get sideline to sideline pretty quickly... Does a pretty good job blitzing off the edge and is shifty enough to shoot gaps when blitzing... Has a lot of upside, but will need to continue to work hard to improve as an all-around player.

  Negatives: Doesn't have great size or strength, will need to put on some bulk to make the transition to the NFL smoother... Inexperience at linebacker position shows, does not have great instincts, takes too long to diagnose plays and will get fooled by misdirection plays far too often... Struggles to get off blocks, does not have the size to overpower blockers and disrupt plays... Not the surest tackler, wraps up fairly well but does not have the strength to drag some ball carriers down after contact... Has some minor durability issues (knee injury), size may be some cause for concern in that area... Is still very raw, will likely need some time to adjust at the next level.

• Pro Football Weekly:

  Positives: Has a frame to carry added bulk. Very athletic with good movement skills, knee bend and hip flexibility. Redirects efficiently. Chases hard and can run and hit. Accelerates quickly, ranges to the sideline and shows burst to close when he sees it. Flashes explosive striking ability and potential as a blitzer. Good character. Stood out at the East-West Shrine Game.

  Negatives: Does not play with pop or power in his hands — only 18 reps of 225 pounds at the Combine. Not stout at the point. Stays stuck on blocks. Speed-dependent as a blitzer. Still developing positional instincts. Most production comes when he has a clear path. Could require extra reps to understand a complex game plan.

  Summary: Undersized, athletic, field-fast, converted running back with starter potential on the weak side in a 4-3 where he could be protected and allowed to flow to the ball. Could require patience but should be able to contribute readily on special teams.

• SI.com:

  Positives: Athletic linebacker who displays tremendous skill in space. Shows good awareness and instincts to quickly locate the ball. Gets depth on pass drops, displays outstanding skill in coverage, and constantly around the ball. Very aggressive and productive in his all-around game. Fluid pedaling in reverse and smooth opening his hips in transition. Stays with tight ends or running backs down the field, plays with explosiveness, and moves quickly in every direction. Immediately alters his angle of attack and loses no momentum. Breaks down well and uses his hands to protect himself.

  Negatives: Lacks bulk and easily controlled at the point of attack. Gives effort defending the run but not stout at the point.

  Analysis: Hogue showed tremendous improvement the past two seasons and ranks as one of the more underrated weakside linebacker prospects in this draft. In many ways he reminds us of former Syracuse star Keith Bullock, and like the NFL veteran, Hogue should eventually find his way into a starting unit at the next level.

• CBSSports.com:

  Strengths: Works best in space and to the sideline, scraping to chase down backs before they get the corner. Has a strong safety build and is smooth in coverage of running backs and tight ends from the strong-side position. Gets his hands on a lot of passes by staying home. Good recovery speed when beat on play-action or misdirection. Used regularly on run and pass blitzes, can catch running backs from behind from the backside or wiggle through creases to track down quarterbacks in the pocket. Defeats cut blocks on the run.

  Weaknesses: Lacks strength at the point of attack, losing leverage battles against fullbacks and tight ends and winds up on the ground too often. High-cut defender doesn't always break down easily in space. Ballcarriers can stiff-arm him easily. Does not beat blocks to reach the quarterback when blitzing. Has fair hands but dropped potential interceptions. Had arthroscopic surgery on right MCL/meniscus after an injury in the 2010 spring game.

You see a very, very consistent picture: Hogue’s height, weight, speed and athleticism give him the potential to start in the NFL someday—and he isn’t maxxed out yet. He’s still raw technically, and doesn’t always make use of what size and strength he has. He’s more of a hunter and pursuer than a guy who’s going to meet a ball carrier in the hole and pop him—but this may be due to lack of instincts/experience putting him a step behind at the snap. Still, he’s an excellent pursuer, and if the defensive line can keep blockers off of him—Hello, Nick Fairley!—he should be able to make plays from the weak side soon, if not right away.

But who cares what I (or the experts) think? We appeal to the dispassionate Circuit Court Judge Panel of NFL Potential: YouTube Highlight Reels!! Unlike Johnny Culbreath, there is an Doug Hogue-specific YouTube Highlight Reel:

Next up, two video vignettes featuring extensive player interviews about Hogue's switch to linebacker. The first is from the spring practice where he was switched, and the second was recorded a few games in:

I can't embed it, but CBSSports.com has its own Doug Hogue highlight reel.

What do we see? Again, a lot of what they told us above: a lot of speed, a lot of backside pursuit, a lot of playmaking. Not much running through guys, not much blowing stuff up before it happens, but definitely a guy who stands out athletically.

Where does he fit on the Lions? Honestly, I don’t see him as an immediate upgrade over Ashlee Palmer, more like an immediate rough equivalent with notably higher upside. Honestly, Hogue reminds me of Ernie Sims, minus the musculature, plus some height, minus some pop, and minus some crazypants. Hogue is knocked for a lack of instincts, but not a lack of decision-making; unlike Sims, Hogue is sometimes a step slow to get to the correct hole, rather than flying two steps past the correct hole with his hair on fire.

If you're thinking it's ridiculous to compare a former #1 overall recruit in America, who was drafted with the eighth overall pick, to a fifth-round converted running back, you may have a point. But remember: Hogue graduated his small public high school at 6’-2,” 210 having “never touched a weight in his life.” Ernie Sims, meanwhile, graduated from a private Florida football powerhouse rocked up like Wesley Snipes in Blade. Sims was made the centerpiece of one of the best college defenses of the last decade, while Hogue was a tailback in the doghouse of one of the least-well-regarded college football coaches of the last decade.

However valid the comparison is, Ernie Sims is gone—and for the first time, we have an idea who his replacement may be. If the lockout shortens the offseason much further, I can’t expect Hogue to see time at linebacker this season. He’ll certainly be an immediate contributor on special teams, though—and who knows? Maybe by the end of the year, he’ll make a play that’ll leave us all shouting, “Who the heck is that?”

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,2011 nfl draft,doug hogue,syracuse football

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