The Watchtower: Lions vs. Patriots

The Lions’ Thanksgiving day game is the definition of routine: a tradition since 1934, it happens every single year, like clockwork.  However, it royally messes with the weekly NFL routine; I woke up on Monday and started panicking about the Watchtower.  Further, it’s yet another Very Special Watchtower: the one where the team has no offensive or defensive coordinator.

That's right, it's right there on the Patriots' coaches page: Bill Belichick is the head coach, runs the offense and the defense, and has a cadre of trusted position-coach assistants.  That’s it.  Examining his track record on both sides of the ball, without crediting him too much or too little, is going to be insanely tricky.  So, let’s get right to it.

Bill Belichick vs. Gunther Cunningham

BB	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Gun	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
NEP	25th	17.2	5.63	3.29	KCC	19th	22.1	6.32	3.83	30	74.4%	5.88	4.4%	3.39	3.0%
NEP	10th	23.8	5.91	3.82	TEN	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	7	-70.6%	4.42	-25.2%	4.31	12.8%
NEP	12th	21.8	6.39	3.40	TEN	13th	20.2	6.60	3.79	31	42.2%	7.06	10.5%	5.96	75.3%
NEP	4th	27.3	7.40	4.07	KCC	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	27	-1.1%	12.12	63.8%	3.06	-24.8%
NEP	6th	25.2	7.51	4.58	KCC	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	16	-36.5%	6.20	-17.4%	4.11	-10.3%
NEP	1st	28.9	6.85	4.09	DET	22d	23.7	7.13	4.79

As you all most certainly are aware, Belichick started out in New England with a noteworthy offensive coordinator: Charlie Weis, currently the OC in KC.  However, Belichick has a long track record of understanding offense, and calling his team’s offensive plays.  I don’t want to lend too much weight to the first four rows (the Weis) years—but it’s clear that Belichick has had his fingers in the offense the entire time, and further it’s clear that Weis did not take the Patriots’ offensive mojo with him to Notre Dame.

In 2002, New England’s offense and Tennesee’s defense were both pretty good (10th & 11th, respectively), yet the Titans held the Pats to just 7 points, 70.6% below their average.  in 2004, the Pats’ offense was a juggernaut—4th in the NFL—and the Chiefs’ defense was wretched.  Yet, the Patriots’ offensive output precisely matched their season average scored—and the Chiefs’ season average allowed: 27 points.  Sounding great so far . . .

. . . but in 2000, the Patriots offense was well below average (25th, 17.2 ppg), and put up thirty points on the 19th-ranked Chiefs.  In 2003, the Pats and Chiefs were again quite evenly matched in terms of execution (12th and 13th), but the Pats went nuts, scoring 42% above their season average.  So what can we conclude?  Nothing.  This might be the most schizophrenic data I’ve ever seen. 

The only non-Weis data point we have came in 2005, when Belichick’s 6th-ranked Patriots (and their 25.2 PpG average) faced off against Gunther’s 16th-ranked Chiefs, averaging 20.3 points allowed.  Impressively, the Chiefs bottled up the Pats, holding them to just 16 offensive points—a delta of 36%!

Looking at the table above, the only commonality I see between the two best results for the Cunningham defense is how the pass was limited.  In both 2002 and 2005, the Pats were held to well below their season averages in per-play effectiveness through the air—and consequently their scoring output was WELL below normal.  So, if the Lions can manage to hold the Patriots to 85% or less of their 2010 YpA . . .

. . . unfortunately, the Patriots have the #1 offense in the NFL.  They’re scoring 28.9 points per game, and have been surprisingly balanced while doing so.  Averaging 6.85 YpA, and 4.09 YpC, they’ll present an extremely tough out for the Lions defense.  That defense, by the way, is ranked 23rd, allowing 22.4 points per game.  As a point of reference, the Lions were dead last in 2009, 2008, and 2007—and 30th in 2006.  The last time the Lions defense was this good was in 2005, when they were ranked 21st and allowed 21.6 ppg.

Still, I don't see an out-of-nowhere performance that holds the Pats to 13 points happening, here.  Bill Belichick respects Schwartz, a former assistant, too much to show up for this game unprepared—and when was the last time BB let that happen anyway?  With no systemic advantage or disadvantage, save a possible what-if-they-don’t-pass-for-beans-corollary that I don’t see coming to fruition, I project the Patriots to meet expectations against the Lions, scoring 30-35 points, netting 7.0-7.50YpA, and garnering 4.25-4.50 YpC.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Well, the sold-out crowd should help the Lions, if it’s not over in the fourth quarter.  Belichick knows Schwartz well, but Schwartz also knows Belichick well.  My guess is we’ll see some creative wrinkles from Gun, and likely some go-for-broke blitzes as well.  However, I don’t see that adding up to a mysteriously stout passing defense shutting down Tom Brady.  I’m pretty sure the 30-35 projection will be accurate.

Scott Linehan vs. Bill Belichick

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Wade	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTS?	YpA	YpA?	YpC	YpC?
MIN	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	NEP	17th	21.6	5.91	3.82	17	-30.3%	5.55	-15.9%	6.12	15.5%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	NEP	17th	21.1	7.30	3.44	16	-19.6%	7.66	29.0%	3.08	-16.5%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	NEP	17th	21.1	7.30	3.44	26	30.7%	6.83	15.0%	3.70	0.3%
STL	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	NEP	8th	19.3	6.68	4.40	16	10.3%	8.85	56.1%	3.46	-12.4%
DET	15th	23.4	5.84	3.45	NEP	23rd	24.2	6.85	4.24

Ah, here we go: a good old-fashion OC vs. DC comparison, even if the DC in question wasn’t the DC for the first matchup.  In fact, in the interests of time, let’s skip the fourth matchup too: it came with the Rams, after Linehan was fired, and that data has been notoriously unreliable as I’ve worked through these Watchtowers.

Fortunately, that leaves us with the best data possible: two points in the same season with the same teams.  Better yet, in the year that it occurred—2005—these two units were remarkably similar to this 2010 matchup.  The Dolphins were ranked 16th on offense, averaging 5.94 YpA and 3.69 YpC.  The Lions are ranked 15th on offense, averaging 5.84 YpA and 3.45 YpC (these numbers were spooky-close before the Cowboys game dragged them down: 5.95 and 3.63!).  In ‘05, the Pats were ranked 17th on defense, allowing 21.1 PpG, 7.30 YpA, and 3.44 YpC.  This season, the Pats are much more balanced in run/pass effectiveness (6.85/4.24), but notably worse in scoring prevention: ranked 23rd, they’re allowing 24.2 points per game. 

So, given this perfect little test kitchen for what happens when a Scott Linehan offense meets a Bill Belichick 3-4 hybrid defense . . . what happened?  In the first contest, the Fins managed only 16 points, 19.6% below their season averages.  Oddly, they passed for well above their season average: 7.66 YpA, 29.0% above their norm.  However, they ran for only 3.08 YpC, down 16.5% (and terrible in an absolute sense).  In the second contest, the Fins scored 26, 30.7 above their average.  They passed for 6.83 YpA, splitting the difference between their norms and the first game—but ran for 3.70 YpC, exactly meeting their season average.  In fact, the only difference I can find is weather:

Stadium: Dolphin Stadium, Start Time: 1:00, Surface: grass, Weather: 77 degrees, relative humidity 63%, wind 15 mph [Dolphins scored 16 points]

Stadium: Gillette Stadium, Start Time: 1:00, Surface: grass, Weather: 28 degrees, relative humidity 83%, wind 11 mph, wind chill 18 [Dolphins scored 26 points]

That's right, the Dolphins did much better on the road, in nasty weather . . . of course, this game will be at home, in a dome.

The bottom line here is that I’m finding wildly variant results.  With no systemic advantage, or disadvantage, I expect Scott Linehan’s balanced offense to meet expectations against Bill Belichick’s 3-4 hybrid defense: 23-27 points, 5.5-6.5 YpA, and 3.5-3.75 YpA.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

We saw a big jump from Shaun Hill in his third game as a Lions starter, nearly outdueling Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau.  He was clearly much better against the Cowboys than Bills—and if he takes another step forward towards the form he showed in Green Bay, and against the Rams, the Lions could definitely keep pace in a shootout.  However, the Lions just can’t run the ball right now, and I have to think the 8-2 Pats are ready to pin their ears back and win a turkey leg, or that iron, or that horrible robot turkey, or whatever it is they give out these days.

One little thing to keep an eye on: trickeration.  Schwartz knows Belichick, and Belichick knows Schwartz.  This game is the Lions’ signature game, and last season they started Matthew Stafford, the franchise quarterback, despite a separated shoulder and no practice.  Hmm.  I’m not suggesting that Stafford starts this game, necessarily, but that we see The Grandmaster dig into that “HB Option Pass” section of the playbook—perhaps even the offensive package for Ndamukong Suh?  A side projection: we will see at least one offensive play or package from the Lions that we haven’t ever seen before.  Keep that in your back pocket.

Conclusion:

I’ve been burned three weeks in a row—three straight times I’ve projected Lions victory and had my heart ripped out (along with all of you).  This time, the data leads me down no primrose path: the most likely result of this game is a 32-24 Lions loss.  I hope it’s close in the fourth quarter, I hope there are some signature moments, and I hope the nation comes away feeling like the Lions are interesting again.  I also hope the Lions win, but I have no objective reason to think they will.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,thanksgiving,new england patriots,bill belichick,jim schwartz,gunther cunningham,scott linehan

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Watchtower REview: Lions at Cowboys

I cannot believe I’m about to do this after the past two weeks. I projected the Lions to beat the Jets, and they blew a 10-point 4th-quarter lead and lost in overtime. I projected the Lions to handle the Bills, and they completely failed to show up. If the Lions are the Lions we saw all year up until last Sunday, they’re a better team than the Cowboys and should win. If the Lions are the Lions we saw all decade, forget about it. Interestingly, though, I think the shoes from last week are on the other foot: the Cowboys are fresh off a fantastic performance, feeling their oats, thinking they're way better than the lowly Lions they're about to face--even though both teams have putrid records. After mailing it in last week, the Lions ought to be revved up to prove they are who we thought they were. All that aside, though, the numbers show these two teams to be very evenly matched, but with a definite offensive edge for the Lions.

Hesitatingly, gulpingly, and with an extreme chance of heartbreak, I declare that the most likely outcome of the game is a 27-24 Lions win. Heaven help me.

Heaven help DENIED.

Given no systemic advantage or disadvantage, Jason Garrett’s implementation of the Air Coryell offense should meet expectations against Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive 4-3, scoring 21-24 points, averaging 8.0-to-9.0 YpA, and 3.5 to 3.75 YpC. I have low confidence in this projection.

For the record, the Cowboys scored 28 offensive points—despite being held to just 6.13 YpA through the air.  The Cowboys did rumble for 4.67 YpC, though.

Expectations would hold that the Lions score better than their season average against the Cowboys, and that the Cowboys allow slightly more than usual against the Lions. There, theoretically, is a mild scoring advantage for the Lions, but the defense did play markedly better in its first game under Pasqualoni—so I’ll call those two factors a wash. I project the Lions’ offense to match expectations against the Cowboys, scoring 25-to-30 points, averaging 6-to-7 YpA, and 3.75-to-4 YpC. I have medium-to-high confidence in this projection.

Well . . . the Lions netted 6.15 YpA, and exactly 3.75 YpC—so, I got that bit right.  The offense was working as we’d expect on a per-play basis; it just didn’t translate into any more than 17 points.  Again, at this point, I have nothing to say here.  The Lions just didn’t execute on offense—and their insistence on playing Jahvid Best when he clearly has nothing in the tank isn’t helping.  The defense—until the final two series—did its job, and the offense wasn’t that too bad either.  It’s just the mistakes, the breakdowns, the penalties, the turnovers, and the incredibly unfortunate timing of all of the above that keeps the Lions making a fool of me in these posts.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,dallas cowboys

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Fireside Chat: Lions at Cowboys

Here's last night's Fireside Chat.  Unfortunately, due to a ridiculous chain of technical difficulties, I haven’t been able to get this up into iTunes just yet.  So, just follow the link to UStream for now (the embbeded player won’t stop autoplaying), and enjoy the latest Fireside Chat (recorded live, ON LOCATION, in a Biggby Coffee parking lot at 11:00 pm last night).

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,podcast,dallas cowboys

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Three Cups Deep: Lions at Cowboys

This is the bottom, the endpoint, the nadir.  The Lions, for the countlessth time this season, outplayed their opponent for much of the game.  They controlled the tempo and momentum, and looked to be on the way to victory.  Then, for the umpteenth time, a mixture of mistakes, freak occurrences, and out-and-out robbery by incompetent referees took the game away from them.

Once again, the Lions could have won but didn’t.  Once again the Lions played hard but lost.  Once again the Lions let opportunity slip through their grasp.  Once again, the referees did their best to negate positive Lions plays.  Once again, the Lions shot themselves in the foot by committing unforced presnap penalties.  Once again, I’m sitting here trying to cope with another loss.

Though it’s my custom to write this post on Monday morning, after at least two cups of coffee—hence the title—I’m writing this immediately after the game ends, on a laptop with no Internet connection, with my smartphone “somewhere around here,” that is to say lost.

Without the Internet, without a microphone, and without you folks—my Fireside Chat participants—chiming in, you’re getting my reaction in a vacuum.  Outside of the use of the “backspace” key, I’m essentially blogging on a typewriter.  You’re getting my unvarnished, old-school post-loss opinion here; a rare treat to be sure.

Unfortunately, I've got nothing to say.

Don't misconstrue this: I’m not going to quit.  I’m not going to abandon my friends at the fire.  I’m not going to stop cheering my guts out for this team week after week after week.  But, highlighting the positive aspects of this loss?  Trying to convince you all—and myself—that a winning streak is surely just around the corner?  Supporting your team is one thing; being delusional is another.

Whether it’s the Ineffable Will of the Football Gods, a vast NFL conspiracy, or just plain not being good enough yet, the Lions are not winning football games this season.  They’re unquestionably—unquestionably—much, much better on both sides of the ball.  Coming into this week, the Lions had the 11th-best scoring offense and 20th-best scoring defense in the NFL.  Last year, they were 27th-best on O and 32nd-best (i.e., dead last) on D.  They were getting outscored by 14.5 points per game, 31st in the NFL in points differential in 2009—and again, prior to this game they were outscoring their opponents by 1.4 ppg; 16th-best.

. . . but of course, none of that matters.  What matters in this league is results, period—and so far, this year’s results are identical to last year’s.  Until the Ws start flowing, we’ll have to endure the clawing emptiness in our stomachs for another week, or weeks, or (God forbid) months.  I wish I had some nourishment for you, some little takeaway that’ll leave you smiling, or at least not tearing your hear out in chunks anymore.  All I have to offer, though, is a spot by the fire, dwindling though it may be.

Looks like the log rack is almost empty.  I’m going to put my gloves back on, and take up my axe and sled.  I’ll see you folks in a little while; I need to go chop some wood.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,dallas cowboys,three cups deep

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Gameday Post: Lions at Cowboys

Those of you who follow me on Twitter know my home Internet service is currently out; this whole blogging thing gets much harder when all you have is a non-tether-able smartphone. So, my comment replies are going to be a little tardy; I appreciate your patience (KFFE and Matt, I especially owe you two some replies! Fanastic stuff). Also, the outage will threaten tonight's Fireside Chat . . . I'll keep you posted.

Anyway, the Lions are playing a game today--and as Matt noted in the Watchtower comments, it's a study in "which team will show up?". The Cowboys could be the aggressive, dynamic team we saw handle the Giants in New Jersey last week--or the moribund 1-7 team we saw the weeks before. Similarly, the Lions could be the scrappy, physical, pass-and-rush-the-passer, make-mistakes-and-overcome-them team that nearly beat the Jets--or the wholly lifeless side that sleepwalked through Buffalo, making the Bills look like the Jets.

If it's last week's Cowboys against last week's Lions, this is going to be nasty, brutish, and short. Any other combination, though, and it will be interesting. Here're my Tortured Sponsor-Name Metaphor Keys To The Game:

* Shaun Hill Having Two Arms
* Attacking the "D"
* One For The Road?!

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