Meet the Cubs: Travis Lewis

7.22 (#223): Travis Lewis, LB, Oklahoma

Timing is everything. Opportunity knocks but once. Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered. You never get a second chance to leave a first impress—okay, well that one doesn’t exactly fit but you get the gist.

The Lions’ final member of the 2012 draft class never dreamed he’d be drafted in the latter half of the seventh round. Indeed, in the 2011 draft cycle the NFL Draft Advisory Board gave him a second-round grade. Lewis, according to Tulsaworld.com, wanted to lead his Sooners to a national championship—and he wanted to be some team’s first draft choice in 2012, not their last.

Coming out of Robert E. Lee HS in San Antonio, TX, Lewis was a 6’-1,” 213-pound linebacker with searing speed  and obvious potential. You can’t have that kind of ceiling in Texas and go unnoticed, and he certainly didn’t. He received offers from pretty much the entire Big XII, and committed to Nebraska as a junior.

Lewis was switched to tailback his senior year, and didn't miss a beat—he rushed for 1,436 yards on 222 carries. He attended the Army combine and NIKE camp, where he ran an “electronically timed” 4.34. Cough.

During that senior season, however, Oklahoma assistant Bobby Jack Wright kept planting bugs in his ear, as Lewis told OUDaily.com:

“He just kept pushing, and he made me think about some things,” Lewis said. “Every time something bad would happen to Nebraska, he would be on the phone saying, ‘You see that?’”

Even while he was committed to Nebraska, Lewis said OU was always in the back of his mind.

“I committed (to NU) as a junior, and that’s too soon to commit,” Lewis said. “You’re young and you don’t really know what you want.”

In the final days and hours before NLI Signing Day, Lewis decommitted from Nebraska, and ultimately signed with OU. Rivals graded Lewis out as a 4-star (5.8) OLB prospect, ranked 20th at his position. Scout also gave Lewis 4 stars, and rated him the 10th-best MLB. Lewis was invited to the 2007 US Army All-American Bowl, and repped Oklahoma (as a tailback).

But the high-flying Sooners had no plans to deploy Lewis as a power back. He switched back to outside linebacker, redshirted a year, and then blew everybody up.

How did he blow everybody up? Let me count the ways: AP Big XII Defensive Newcomer of the Year, AP Big XII first team, All-Big XII Academic first team, 144 total tackles (breaking Brian Bosworth’s freshman record), 12 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 7 passes defensed and 4 INTs for 108 return yards (!). His performance was a big part of why the Sooners made it to the BCS National Championship Game.

What happened over the next two seasons is statistically interesting. His total tackles (109, 109, 84),  TFLs (9.5, 5.5, 4.0), and sacks (1.0, 1.5, 1.0) all declined. OU played 14 games in 2008, 13 games in 2009 and 14 games in 2010, so his rates for all three of those stats declined pretty consistently.

Chart?

Chart.

Quick disclaimer: in order to show all this stuff on the same graph in a meaningful way, “tackles per game” has been divided by ten. Still, you can see quite clearly: from his freshman year to his sophomore year, Travis Lewis’s per-game production of tackles, TFLs, sacks and INTs dramatically declined from his freshman year to his senior year.

But what’s that orange line?

That's his solo-to-assist ratio. As a freshman, it was 0.95; he had more assists than solos. As a senior, it was 1.80; he had nearly twice as many solos as assists. This paints a very clear picture of Lewis’ maturation from a “pile jumper” using his speed to run all over the field and get in on every tackle to a veteran run-stopper. In the numbers, you can see him reading the offense, getting to the right hole and making the play unassisted.

His declining total production may have been partially caused by his situation’s decline; Lewis still led the Sooners in tackles for four straight seasons. Rivals.com even listed him as "one

Nevertheless, his offseason accolades grew a little dimmer from his freshman year to his junior campaign. In 2009 he was named first-team All Big XII by the coaches, but the media tabbed him for their second team. In 2010, he was named second team All-Big XII by both coaches and media. He asked the NFL to assess his draft stock and they gave him that fateful second-round grade.

Lewis decided to return to college, try and get the ring he’d fallen just short of in 2008, and to plant himself firmly in first-round territory. Instead he broke his foot.

As Tulsaworld.com recounts, Lewis broke his sesamoid bone on the first day of padded summer practice—missing all of camp, the first game of the season, and an open date. Despite losing that game, and an entire offseason of training and development, Lewis’s 84 tackles still tied for the highest on the team. He again was named to the coaches’ and the AP’s All-Big XII second team.

He added weight to impress the scale at the combine, but he failed to impress the stopwatch. Remember his “electronically timed 4.34” in high school camps? Five years later, weighing 30 pounds more, he cut a 4.88.

“It’s not about stats sometimes. It’s about how fast you run, how high you can jump.” –Travis Lewis, per NewsOK.com

Indeed it is. Most of all, though, it’s about how fast you run and high you jump while garnering those statistics. What did the experts see in his play?

ESPN.com’s Scouts, Inc. graded Lewis a 54, a fifth-rounder:

"Possesses above-average diagnostic skills. Reads keys and reacts quickly to the ball. Takes proper angles with run fits. Can be a quarter count late recognizing and reacting to play-action, though.

Did not see explosive power on tape and possesses just marginal point of attack skills. Will drop head and bury himself into blockers essentially taking himself out of the play and sacrificing gap discipline.

Overall range is just adequate compared with career production (445 tackles). Displays some tightness in hips and can take an extra second to transition when having to make a sudden change of direction. Shows an above-average closing burst once getting pointed in the right direction.

A fundamentally sound and reliable tackler. Does a nice job of bringing his hip through and wrapping up upon contact . . . Generally takes proper angles in pursuit and does a nice job of breaking down in the open field.

Displays very good awareness for targets in his area and for passing lanes. Flashes playmaking ability in coverage and has the ball skills to finish plays and secure INT. He has limitations in man coverage, though. Often overaggressive trying to be physical in man coverage working against RBs and can lose balance. Does not provide much a pass-rusher at this point.”

CBSSports.com's Chad Reuter didn't give Lewis an overall grade:

Read & React: Combines very good instincts with above-average reaction skills . . . Great feel in coverage, sees quarterback and receiver, jumps routes to prevent completion, or at least stop yards after the catch . . . One-man wrecking crew against screens because he sniffs them out and has the quickness to grab the receiver.

Run defense: Tougher between the tackles than many expect. Gap-shooter that grabs backs before they get through the line, also willing to throw his body into the hole to create piles and stands up to blocks to stay in the play. Lacks strength to blow up fullbacks and bulk/length to prevent getting engulfed by better lineman at the second level.

Pass defense: Fluid and quick drop into zone, covers enough ground to be Tampa-Two mike and knows where the markers are. Often arrives at the receiver at the same time as the ball, gives up few yards after the catch . . . Creates turnovers with quick reaction time to bring in tipped balls, closes on balls over the middle or baits quarterbacks intro throwing his directions if they do not seeing his deep drop. Loses size battle to many tight ends, easily pushed away on out routes. Caught looking into backfield occasionally instead of getting to receiver in the flat.

Tackling: As secure and reliable a tackler as you'll see in college football [emphasis added]. Not necessarily explosive, but more physical than a chase-and-drag linebacker.

Pass Rush/Blitz: Works more in space than attacking the backfield, but flashes closing speed and agility to reach passers from the blind side or up the middle before they can escape . . . Takes advantage of large holes to get to the quarterback, but must work on using violent hands to rip off lineman and defeat cut blocks from running backs.

Intangibles: Team captain who leads the team on and off the field with words and by example. Four-year starter for one of the top programs in the country. No known character or off-field issues.

SI.com grades Lewis a 2.40; a Fence Player who "needs time and patience to develop."

Positives: Tough, productive college linebacker with limited upside. Displays a terrific head for the ball, instinctive and quick to react. Chases the action hard, takes good angles to plays and remains disciplined with assignments. Fluid moving laterally, makes plays out to the sidelines and relatively effective in space. Squares into ballcarriers and wraps up when tackling.

Negatives: Slow moving in reverse and lacks a quick backpedal in coverage. Marginally effective on the blitz. Minimal burst to the action and lacks overall closing speed.

Analysis: Lewis was a terrific college linebacker, but he lacks top size/speed numbers for the NFL. He plays smart football, gives effort on every down and could be a valuable backup in a variety of defensive systems.

Projection: 5-6

Pro Football Weekly graded Lewis a 5.39, which I don't have a rubric for but puts him just inside their Top 100, notably higher than anyone else. Also, check out the bolded bit about the interviews; first I've heard of that.

Positives: Athletic build. Instinctive and active. Light on his feet. Good bend, balance and movement skills. Attacks downhill, shoots gaps and ranges to the perimeter. Shows short-area burst and explosion — posted a 36-inch vertical leap and 10-foot, 2-inch broad jump. Flashes striking ability. Times blitzes. Effective dropping into zone — shows awareness, reactions and ball skills. Is productive, does not come off the field and has special-teams experience. Likes to play and it shows. Productive, four-year starter. Confident, intense and motivated.

Negatives: Shows tightness in his hips when he has to redirect suddenly or break down in space. Average bulk strength — outmuscled between the tackles and gives ground to get off blocks (can improve hand use). Struggles to keep himself clean through clutter. Lacks knock-back power. Needs to bring his feet more consistently as a tackler — tries to rip down ballcarriers with his arms and slips off some tackles. Loses positioning in man coverage — can be a liability assigned to quick backs. Turned off executives in the interview process and character has been questioned.

Summary: Brash, emotional, experienced, highly productive, run-and-hit “Will” linebacker and converted running back with chase speed to be effective covered up. Has starter-caliber ability in 4-3 front if he can learn to use his hands better and earn respect of his teammates.

The National Football Post graded Lewis at 6.5, which according to the NFP grading scale is at the top end of "Possible Starter Caliber/Developmental Prospect Caliber" tier.

A shorter, undersized backer who is a bit narrow through the hips, but possesses an athletic looking frame. Displays "plus" instincts inside when asked to read and react to the inside run. Does a nice job staying low when sliding laterally and absolutely explodes downhill when he finds the ball . . . Routinely is able to gain a step, absorb contact and fend off blocks through the play . . . Is only an average tackler, tends to go high into ball carriers and will slip off his fair share of backs. [emphasis added]

Is a natural athlete in space vs. the pass game . . . Doesn't waste much motion when asked to click and close, stays compact with his footwork and generates good closing speed off his frame. Keeps his head on a swivel in zone coverage, feels routes around him and exhibits the fluidity to cleanly open up his hips and run. Exhibits good ball skills when he can make a play on the throw and has a knack for being around the football and coming down with key turnovers. Impression: He's a bit undersized and doesn't tackle as well as you would like inside the box. However, he's a good run and hit backer who plays the run well and will be able to make plays vs. the pass game in the NFL. Looks like a day one starter to me as a 43 backer, either on the weak side or possibly in the middle.

Normally, I'd include New Era Scouting's draft guide. They mocked Lewis in the fifth to the Titans, and ranked him 168th overall, which all fits, but the "strengths" and "weaknesses" section seems to have been the a victim of a publishing whoopsie (they list Lewis as a DE/OLB 'tweener and assess him as a DE).

But you folks know what’s up: none of this matters. It’s all a bunch of hot air from talking heads! There’s only one true way to assess the potential of an NFL prospect: YOUTUBE HIGHLIGHT REELS.

Here's an excellent set of clips from his sophomore season, cut-ups of the 2009 road game at Miami. You can see his excellent instincts and solid tackling in the run game. When he gets into the hole, he makes the tackle. When a guard or tackle (like Jason Fox!) get their hands on him, though, he does struggle to shed the blocks. There's a reverse at 2:00 where he shows outstanding recognition and open-field tackling:

Here's a really, really nice set of "positive" and "negative" cutups from several games in the 2010 season. We see more of the same: a lot of athleticism, great recognition and fluidity in space, a lot of big stops in the hole, and an occasional inability to cut through the wash and get off blocks:

I'm disappointed I couldn't find an old-school “hype video” with intro, music, etc. Still, these clips back up the themes we saw repeated in the expert scouting reports.

Conclusion

This is one of the most interesting Meet the Cubs I’ve ever done. Even given the disappointing senior season, the tailing off of total production, and the poor Combine measurables, Travis Lewis had a monster career at Oklahoma. Moreover, despite the lack of eye-popping tackle stats, his progression from athletic “pile jumper” to two-dimensional, three-down player is obvious from both the numbers and the film.

Lewis doesn't have protypical MLB size, and he doesn't have OLB pass-rush skills. But he has the athleticism and instincts to rotate at OLB early, and the run-stuffing chops to be a Tulloch-esque MLB as he develops. He’ll have very stiff competition from Doug Houge and the yet-to-be-MTC’d linebackers from the word go, but he’s got too much natural talent and too much great play on film against too high of a level of competition to simply wash out at this level.

There’s one more cliché that might apply to the career of Travis Lewis: he who laughs last, laughs longest.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Outside Linebackers

The outside linebackers saw some churn this season, with DeAndre Levy sliding over full-time from the his prior inside spot, and newcomer Justin Durant taking most of the snaps on the other side, this group looks much different than it did in 2009. The radar chart looks a lot different, too:

Von Miller was Pro Football Focus’s top-rated 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, and No. 2 isn’t anywhere close. His +50.3 overall grade is simply massive, and nearly double the second-best 4-3 OLB, Jacksonville’s Daryl Smith (+27.3). His monster pass-rush grade (+25.4) dwarfs the second-best there, too (Kamerion Wimbley, +16.4). Smith has the top coverage grade at +8.7, but Miller is #2 at +5.2. When it comes to stopping the run, Miller is again top dog at +22.6.

At the bottom is Quincy Black, which makes me skittish about my assessment of him last season. Black’s –3.1 rush grade is just below the average of –0.5, but it actually makes him the third-worst run-stuffer in the NFL. This speaks to something I’ve talked about before: the vast, vast majority of 4-3 outside linebackers are virtually indistinguishable in terms of production. There are some at the top, one or two at the very top, and a few at the very bottom. Most of the rest are fungible with each other.

Reminder: Advanced NFL Stats does not differentiate between 3-4, 4-3, inside, or outside linebackers. All "ranks" for +EPA and +WPA are amongst all NFL linebackers.

Here's what last year's Outside Linebacker OMH had to say about the two outside linebackers the Lions will carry forward from 2012 into 2012:

DeAndre Levy is exactly where Cliff Avril was at this point last year: third-round pick from a Big Ten school, battling injuries and switching positions. Levy will have to take an Avrilesque step forward in 2011 to prove he’s a long-term solution to the ILB problem—but even if we get more of the same, he’s not a liability on this defense.

Bobby Carpenter showed he can be a creditable player for the Lions. He’ll never be the pass rusher the Lions want from the OLB spot—but with a full offseason in the system he should be able to pull his weight out there.

Let me qualify that last one: I no longer believe the Lions value pass-rushing as a primary tool in their outside linebackers. From Schwartz and Cunningham’s original comments about the design goals of the defense, I understood Julian Peterson to be the prototype: an impact pass-rusher with size and tools, and “good enough” in run-stopping and coverage.

In 2012, it became obvious that the Lions prefer not to blitz if possible, and instead rely on the linebackers as the primary line of defense against the run. Secondly, they need the linebackers to cover well—if the Lions are rushing four and dropping seven, they’re relying on that back seven to be smothering.

Now, in the Shopping for Linebackers OMH, my take on Justin Durant:

The dark horse of the OLB free agent class is Justin Durant, a 6’-1”, 240-pound wrecking ball from the Jaguars—a wrecking ball with a couple of cracks. Just look at the radar chart above: Durant’s stonking +15.5 against the run is second-best in the NFL. His missed tackle rate, one per 8.1 made, is right in the middle of the pack. This suggests, like Bulluck, Durant is slicing through blocking to get to the correct lanes, over and over and over again, showing veteran savvy in just his fourth year. even if his finishing isn’t top-notch.

There are two big concerns about Durant: one is his inability to stay healthy; he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons, plus six games last season. Second, he graded out as poorly against the pass as he did well against the run. His appalling –13.2 on coverage put him fourth-worst in the NFL, and his –1 in pass rush is below-average, too. He’s allowed a slightly-better-than-average 75.6% of his targets to be caught, and his passer rating allowed is dead on NFL average: 98.6, vs. 98.8 . . . but you don’t earn a –13.2 on only 491 snaps without being consistently poor in coverage. Durant has the physical tools to be an impact player, but so far it’s more potential than production.

Justin Durant is not fungible with any Lions outside linebacker I’ve given the OMH treatment. His +7.8 overall PFF grade ranks him 15th among 4-3 outside linebackers, just outside that second tier. This strongly above-average production is the best I’ve seen from the OLB position in the three years I’ve been charting it.

Pro Football Focus grades take a lot of heat, but Durant’s effectiveness in 2011 strongly resembled that of 2010. Durant plays the way he plays, here or in Jacksonville. He again pulled a double-digit run-stuffing grade, at +10.7. That was the ninth-best mark in the NFL, despite playing only 558 snaps.

Durant has struggled to stay healthy, and this season wasn’t quite an exception. He suffered a concussion against Minnesota in Week 3, and wasn’t able to return until the Atlanta game in Week 7. Other than that, though, he was able to make a major impact on running downs from wire to wire.

When it comes to passing downs, though, Durant is less effective—and he wasn’t on the field often in nickel packages. He was just slightly below average on the blitz, graded at –1.1 (-0.5 avg.). Again, though, that’s not a priority in this defense. The OLBs do need to cover, though, and that’s been Durant’s Achilles heel. This season, he was much improved in that arena: his coverage grade was –4.7 (up from –13.2), despite playing 67 more snaps.

Most of that, however, came in a –3.2 performance against Carolina, where screens to Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams on Durant’s side went 4-for-4 for 73 yards. When Durant was asked to simply drop back into coverage, he did it at an NFL average level—vastly improved from 2010 and more than good enough for 2012.

Bottom Line: Justin Durant is an athletic, physical run-stuffer with great strength, speed, and instincts. He was mostly taken off the field on passing downs, and mostly average against the pass when he wasn’t.  Overall, he’s given the Lions the best OLB production in the Schwartz era, and should remain a vital part of the defense for 2012. If Stephen Tulloch is not retained, I’d favor sliding Durant inside over acquiring another MLB.

DeAndre Levy did not take an “Avrilesque” step forward this season. Expected to develop into an athletic, hard-hitting, great-in-coverage-but-can-stop-the-run-too MLB, Levy instead yielded that spot to Stephen Tulloch and slid over to the outside. He once again struggled with consistency, mixing flashes of truly outstanding play with stretches of invisibility or even liability.

Levy played 981 snaps this season, doing most of the nickel-linebacker duty. His overall PFF grade of –6.7 is 38th-best, which is unfortunately also ninth-worst. What pushes Levy so far down the list is that he doesn’t do anything particularly well. His –2.4 blitz grade is not that far below the –0.5 average, his –1.7 coverage grade is actually above the –3.1 average, and his –4.1 run-stuffing grade is well below the +3.7 average.

DeAndre Levy not a blitzer, a run-stuffer, or coverage guy. He’s a true all-around linebacker, and when he’s on he’s fantastic. Crucially, he’s been “on” when the Lions have needed him the most. He had three games where he graded out positively in all three phases of play (and strongly positive overall): On Monday Night against Chicago, the following week against San Francisco, and the regular-season finale at Green Bay. Clearly, he has a knack for coming up big in big spots.

If you need confirmation of this, just check out his eye-popping +WPA: 1.79, by far the highest on the team and 11th-best in the NFL. It was high enough for Levy to make the Advanced NFL Stats NFC All-WPA team. ANS's Brian Burke points out that 0.71 of that 1.79 came on the last second sack-fumble of Joe Webb against Minnesota—where Levy singlehandedly changed a probable loss to a certain win.

Even without that play, though, Levy’s +WPA would be 1.08, still best amongst Lions OLBs and 61st out of  198 NFL linebackers. Levy and Durant’s +EPA (32.0 & 34.7 respectively) were very similar too, meaning Levy got more game-changing impact out of the plays he did make. However, the wide disparity in PFF grades shows Durant was much more solid when he wasn’t making splash plays.

Bottom Line: DeAndre Levy is left in limbo, yet again. He continues to show flashes of the player the Lions hoped he’d become, but he doesn’t appear to be significantly better than he was as a rookie. He has the athleticism, intelligence, and hitting ability to be a complete all-around linebacker capable of playing all three positions well—but as it is, he’s a mediocre-to-poor coverage OLB with a knack for making big plays in big spots. Levy will be a restricted free agent this offseason.

Bobby Carpenter surprised everyone with his strong rotational play in 2011, and though his snap count increased in 2012 his play only got stronger. You’d expect a 6’-2,” 256-pound former first-round pick to be a run-stuffer, or a blitzer, but he’s neither. Carpenter is a rare bird: a 3rd-down linebacker in a two-down body.

Those who were paying attention remember Carpenter having a banner day against the team that drafted (and cut) him: the Dallas Cowboys. Besides this ridiculous pick-six, Carpenter was +1.6 against the run, giving him the strongest-PFF-graded game of his career (+3.6).

Unfortunately, he was just as bad (-3.6) against Atlanta as he was good against Dallas, and with Durant, Levy, and Tulloch all healthy Carpenter didn’t see the field much after that, save for 51 unremarkable snaps against Minnesota. His overall PFF grade was an above-average +2.1, which if he’d played another game or two would have made him the 24th-best 4-3 OLB this season. His 25.0 +EPA and 0.22 +WPA accurately reflect his contributions: he didn’t play much, and when he did he didn’t have major impact (I’d bet most of that 0.22 came on that pick six).

Bottom Line: Bobby Carpenter is a a coverage and special-teams specialist who looks like he should be so much more. The Lions have come to rely on him as a steady fourth ‘backer, but he will be an unrestricted free agent.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions have some decisions to make about their linebackers, and first and foremost is the retention of Stephen Tulloch. If he is not retained, Durant could move inside and the Lions would be shopping for at least one starting OLB.

If Tulloch is retained, Durant should keep his job as a two-down run stuffer, but Levy will need to become much more consistent in pass coverage—assuming, of course, Levy himself is re-signed. My gut tells me he will be; he’s still got too much upside to let walk away.

If Tulloch and Levy are retained, Doug Hogue might be tabbed to fill Bobby Carpenter’s role—or the Lions might re-sign Carpenter, too. Ashlee Palmer should remain a special-teams specialist.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Inside Linebackers

Okay, “The Inside Linebackers” is a misnomer. There was only one. Stephen Tulloch played 1120 snaps for the Lions in 2011; Ashlee Palmer was the only Lion to get any game reps at the MLB spot (and he only got 18). Tulloch was a free agent signee, so wasn’t OMH’d in last year’s Inside Linebacker assessment . . . OR WAS HE?

With the lockout, I had enough time to OMH not only current Lions but prospective ones as well. Here's what the Old Mother Hubbard: Shopping for Inside Linebackers piece had to say about Tulloch:

Tulloch got to the ballcarrier as often as almost anyone, and was picked on in coverage almost as much as anyone. He had the heaviest snap workload in the NFL, and he was involved in those snaps at very high rates. It’d be fair to say that no one ILB did more for his defense than Stephen Tulloch in 2010—yet, the Titans have already prepared for Tulloch’s departure, drafting Florida ILB Colin McCarthy. They fear Tulloch will “cost too much to keep,” despite his obvious value. Whether it’s because Jim Schwartz will be waiting at midnight with a bottle of vino, or because there’ll be a bidding war the Lions will bow out of, Tulloch won’t come cheaply.

 The Lions allegedly offered Tulloch a rich long-term deal, but they weren’t able to get it done. To the surprise of all, the two sides agreed to a one-year, $3.25 million-dollar contract. The Lions got their money’s worth:

Stephen Tulloch was Pro Football Focus’ seventh-highest-graded inside linebacker. His +20.8 wasn’t too far behind San Francisco’s NaVorro Bowman, the top dog at +32.2. The biggest gap between the two was in the pass-rush department, where Tulloch’s –1.6 grade was actually below the NFL average of 0.0. Tulloch outstripped Bowman in coverage though, by a long shot. Tulloch’s +11.2 coverage grade was second-best in the NFL, behind only Jacksonville’s Paul Posluszny. When it came to stopping the run, Tulloch was again in the top ten: ranked 9th, with a +12.6 mark.

The numbers are again very solid. Counting every assist as “half a tackle,” Tulloch had one missed tackle for every 12.63 tackles made, tied for ninth-best in the NFL. Tulloch was in on a tackle once every 11.09 snaps; good for 10th-best in the NFL. In coverage, Tulloch was outstanding. Opposing quarterbacks threw at him 39 times, and he allowed only 71.4% of them to be caught. He allowed a passer effectiveness rating of just 71.3, third-lowest of any inside linebacker.

NOTE: Advanced NFL Statistics does not differentiate between 4-3, 3-4, inside, or outside linebackers. They’re all just “linebackers.”

When it comes to making plays, Tulloch had a fantastic year. His +1.81 +WPA is 10th-best in the NFL—again, out of all 198 linebackers—and more than double the 0.76 league average. For +EPA, Tulloch’s 66.6 is second-best in the NFL, behind only Terrell Suggs.

Bottom Line: Stephen Tulloch is one of the best 4-3 middle linebackers in the business. In the context of a defense that doesn’t ask him to rush the passer much he might be the best. He is a horse who’s played nearly 2,500 snaps over the last two seasons and shows no signs of slowing down. Tulloch must be re-signed, because the Lions cannot replace his performance on the open market.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions have one of the league’s best middle linebackers walking out the door as an unrestricted free agent, and literally no one behind him. They absolutely must re-sign Tulloch, commit significant resources to finding a not-as-good replacement, or hope DeAndre Levy can take a big step forward in the middle.

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In Praise of the Wide Nine, Lions D-Line, & Back Seven

Back when Nick Fairley suddenly showed up to training camp in a walking boot, I wrote a piece called “Nick Injured? It’s Fairley Insignificant.” In it I said not to PANIC:

The Lions’ defensive line must keep rolling waves, so they’ll need Fairley back—but not the way they needed Ndamukong Suh last season. Suh played a thousand snaps, nearly every single down the defense was on the field last season. Fairley was never going to carry that big of a load even if he showed up to camp in the best shape of his life, dominated every rep, and didn’t suffer so much as a paper cut. He’s an extremely talented player and he seems like a nice, fun-loving guy—but he doesn’t need to be an All-Pro for the Lions to have a good defense this year.

After five games, the Lions’ defense is fourth-best in the NFL, allowing just 17.8 points per game. The talent, skill, and depth of the defensive line has allowed the Lions to contain the run and snuff out the pass. They have 12 sacks, tied for 11th-best in the league—with  nearly zero blitzing. The Lions’ Pro Football Focus team Pass Rush grade is +18.9, fifth-best. Clearly, the line has been fine with or without the #13 overall pick.

Early  during the Monday Night game, Commenter Matt nudged me and said, “Dude, Fairley’s in.” I looked and saw that indeed, #98 was out there, rotating in for a snap or two. It continued throughout the night; Fairley seamlessly blended with Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams and Sammie Hill and Andre Fluellen.

Fairley got great penetration, fought off blocks, got in on some piles, and per Pro Football Focus had three quarterback pressures. He received a +2.4 overall PFF grade (+1.0 run defense, +1.3 pass rush, +0.1 penalty), amazing work for an 18-snap workload. The impact wasn’t seen but it was felt, as the Lions defensive line constantly rotated players in and out, staying fresh and keeping the pressure at a rolling boil for sixty minutes.

As I'm sure you saw earlier in the week, ESPN Stats & Information found that Cutler was under duress for 42.1% of his throws Monday Night, the highest for any single quarterback in any single game so far this year. Cutler performed incredibly well considering the pressure; any other quarterback might have gone down seven or eight times—or at least, thrown a lot more incompletions or interceptions.

But it’s more than just the defensive line.

Philadelphia fans and media alike are screaming for the Eagles to scrap the “wide nine,” a defensive system wherein the blindside pass-rushing defensive end lines up far outside their opposing offensive tackle, and the rest of the line shifts around to obtain maximum penetration and pass rush without blitzing. Adam Caplan of Scout.com explains:

Does all this sound familiar? It should, because it’s the exact same system the Lions use.

There’s a problem inherent in widening out that defensive line, then coaching them to aggressively penetrate. Trap blocks, counters, and end-arounds become extremely effective. Teams intent on running the ball will succeed. In a recent Detroit News article, Jim Schwartz explained how the Lions deal with this:

"We're vulnerable to trap blocks," Schwartz said. "You tell guys to get up field and rush the passer, they're going to be susceptible to the trap. But our linebackers are expected to play that. We don't want our guys slowing down and playing traps. Suh is an instinctive guy. He's seen those things before. If we are getting off the line the way we are supposed to, our linebackers should fill those (gaps) up."

Stephen Tulloch, Justin Durant, DeAndre Levy, and Bobby Carpenter have combined to do just that. Though opposing running backs are shredding the Lions’ defensive line for 4.78 YpC, the Lions have allowed only one rushing touchdown. Opposing running backs are getting through t the second level, but no further.

On the passing side of the ball, the Lions are one of the best defenses in the NFL. According to one of my favorite pass-defense metrics, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, the Lions’ pass defense is tied with the New York Jets for second-best in the NFL. Pro Football Focus grades the Lions pass rush fifth,  and pass coverage No. 1.

In Detroit, the “wide nine” system is working perfectly. The strength, speed, depth and alignment of the Lions’ defensive line is putting heat on quarterbacks with almost no blitzing. The burden of stopping the run is almost entirely on the linebackers’ shoulders—and they’re getting the job done. The Eagles’ linebackers aren’t, and Nnamdi Asomugha is having to explain to reporters that contrary to appearances they do know how to tackle.

The back seven is also working in concert to take away quarterbacks’ safety blankets underneath, prevent being burned deep, jumping the medium routes to pick passes off and get the ball back to the offense. Where the Eagles gazillion-dollar “dream team” secondary is getting gashed on the ground and through the air, the Lions hand-picked cast of role players and reclamation projects is the best back seven in the NFL.

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Justin Durant is a Lion; Another LB In The Works?

. . . and with that, the Lions secured the services of Justin Durant. When we went shopping for outside linebackers in the Old Mother Hubbard series, this is what we found:

The dark horse of the OLB free agent class is Justin Durant, a 6’-1”, 240-pound wrecking ball from the Jaguars—a wrecking ball with a couple of cracks. Just look at the radar chart above: Durant’s stonking +15.5 against the run is second-best in the NFL. His missed tackle rate, one per 8.1 made, is right in the middle of the pack. This suggests, like Bulluck, Durant is slicing through blocking to get to the correct lanes, over and over and over again, showing veteran savvy in just his fourth year, even if his finishing isn’t top-notch.

There are two big concerns about Durant: one is his inability to stay healthy; he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons, plus six games last season. Second, he graded out as poorly against the pass as he did well against the run. His appalling –13.2 on coverage put him fourth-worst in the NFL, and his –1 in pass rush is below-average, too. He’s allowed a slightly-better-than-average 75.6% of his targets to be caught, and his passer rating allowed is dead on NFL average: 98.6, vs. 98.8 . . . but you don’t earn a –13.2 on only 491 snaps without being consistently poor in coverage. Durant has the physical tools to be an impact player, but so far it’s more potential than production.

Where this leaves us is a little bit uncertain. Mike O’Hara reported that the Lions love Durant’s ability to play inside or outside, and certainly his skill set lends itself to a move inside. However, Durant agreed only to a two-year deal; it seems unlikely that he’ll be tabbed to be the new quarterback of the defense.

Indeed, reports indicate that the Lions have laid a massive offer on Stephen Tulloch’s table, which wasn’t retracted when they landed Durant. If Tulloch eventually lands with the Lions (Dave Birkett of the Freep indicated that’s unlikely), he would doubtlessly take over the middle, and Durant would move outside.

Ideally, I think that's the role the Lions envision for Durant: a big, fast, athletic tackler who can shut down half the run game and rush the passer a bit. A good comparison might be Julian Peterson, circa 2009—only Durant will be entering his prime, not past it. Unfortunately, the Lions still need to add either a coverage OLB and keep Levy in the middle, or add a complete MLB and shift Levy outside. I don’t see Durant contributing to the nickel packages, either—he’ll be a two-down beast on the outside if he can stay healthy.

One of the best Jaguars sources out there, Alfie Crow from Big Cat Country, talked with Khaled Elsayed of Pro Football Focus about the Jags’ free agents. Here are some of the things he said about Durant:

Khaled: Though he's more a two down player, you watch Justin Durant sometimes and think he could be one of the top ten linebackers in the league. Granted, in space he can look like one of the worst ten, but give him a two down role and he can really put himself about.

Alfie:As far as Justin Durant, he looked to me a classic case of missed potential. Physically he's what you ask for in a linebacker, but his instincts left a lot to be desired. He'd run himself out of plays and just couldn't stay healthy. More often than not, availability supercedes ability, especially at the linebacker position. He wound up being just average, and average is easily replaceable at linebacker.

Perhaps Justin Durant is, all things considered, an “average” all-around OLB—but as the PFF data shows, that “average” is a tantalizing mix of brilliant and cringeworthy. It’s true that you can get “unremarkable” linebackers anywhere, but brilliant is tough to come by. If the Lions can deploy the “brilliant” for 50% of the snaps, and take him off the field the other half, they might have gotten an incredible value. This jibes with the general approach the Lions have taken: get players with outstanding tools, put them in roles that maximize their talent.

The situation is changing rapidly; I’ve rewritten this post to reflect the latest news several times. But, if the Lions can add Tulloch (or another 3-down ILB like the Packers’ Nick Barnett), they will have massively upgraded the linebacker corps, and the defense as a whole. If they can’t add another top-notch all-around LB, they’ll have two athletic young players in Durant and Levy who can both play inside or outside. Considering they were starting special-teamers last season, even the worst-case scenario looks pretty good.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl free agency,justin durant,stephen tulloch,deandre levy,linebackers

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The Lions’ Free Agency Picture Gets Clearer

On Monday, I posted the timeline for contracts and signings, and noted that what happens midweek will set the stage for the moves to come:

Besides the rumors of who’s negotiating with who that will hit the wire come Tuesday lunchtime, keep a close watch on Thursday for the release of Lions veterans. Cuts, and whispers of renegotiated contracts for players like Jeff Backus, will hint broadly at the Lions’ approach. Will they be major players for major contributors, or just dipping a finger in the frosting of a rich free agent cake?

A few moves have already been made: Bryant Johnson has been informed of his impending release, Dave Rayner has agreed to return to compete for the kicking job, and free agent OLB Stephen Nicholas will return to the Falcons. Now, the National Football Post is reporting that the Lions have offered Titans MLB Stephen Tulloch a contract with a $10M bonus, and that Lions staff and players alike are helping recruit Tulloch to Detroit.

If they could land him, it would neatly upgrade two positions at once: Tulloch would step in as MLB, and DeAndre Levy would return to the outside. With Bobby Carpenter a free agent, the Lions would still have to add an OLB of some kind, but the LB corps would be greatly improved regardless.

The question remains: what are the Lions’ plans for the cornerback position? The amount of cap room the Lions have left isn’t great; my thought was they’d be able to get a handful of decent players, or perhaps make a big splash on one and get one more good guy. If Tulloch agrees to this apparently-massive deal, I’m not sure they’ll be able to make a run at Johnathan Joseph, as ESPN’s Chis Mortenson rumored.

Then again, as Sports Business Journal’s Liz Mullen pointed out on Twitter, the NFL’s new salary cap is “soft.” It’s a leaguewide maximum total, not a per-team maximum—and even then, there’s some wiggle room ($3M of exceptions in the first year, for example). Perhaps the Lions are simply going to go for broke—add two long-term, quality starters in Tulloch and Joseph, and round out the bottom of the roster with lots and lots of youth. I can’t say the vision I’m seeing through the fog is entirely unpleasant.

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Old Mother Hubbard: Shopping for Linebackers, Pt. II

When we first shopped for linebackers, we assumed the Lions would be bringing in a new middle linebacker and shifting Andre Levy outside. The result? Stephen Tulloch was the only 4-3 MLB who looked like a clear upgrade over Levy, though Kirk Morrison looked like an excellent option if the Lions wanted to bring in a pure run-stopper. My suspicion, though, is that the Lions won’t have anyone but Tulloch or Levy in the middle, because they value knowledge of the system and defensive playcalling above pure tackling ability. So, let’s presume the Lions pursue (but don’t land) Stephen Tulloch, and attempt to upgrade the outside linebacker position.

That guy in Carolina blue (or something like it) is James Anderson, a surprise tackling surprise on a terrible Panther defense. Fantasy football players in IDP leagues know all about this guy, as he racked up 100 solo tackles and 12 assists (by Pro Football Focus’s count). Of course, being on a terrible defense, he played about 1,100 snaps to rack those totals up—2nd most of any 4-3 OLB. But if you divide snaps by his total tackles and missed tackles, you see he had a chance to make a tackle in every 9.1 of those 1,110 snaps, a rate placing him in the upper third of 41 qualifying outside linebackers.

Anderson’s grades, not surprisingly, look great. His +14.1 overall slotted him 3rd-best in the NFL; he was surprisingly well-rounded, too, grading well above average in pass rush, pass coverage, run stopping, and penalty drawing. His 6 sacks, 5 QB hits, and 8 QB pressures are eye-popping, especially considering Anderson played all but two games on the strong side of Carolina’s defense. He wasn’t an especially sure tackler, though: if I add his solos to one-half his assists, and divide that number by his missed tackles (9), I get a tackle-to-missed tackle ratio of 11.8—that’s below average, and ranked 31st of 41.

Anderson’s coverage, though graded well, is a bit of a mixed bag. He was targeted 61 times; 4th-most in the NFL, but when you account for his snap count he wasn’t especially picked on. He allowed 80% of those targets to be caught; that’s 23rd-best, just about at the median. His average allowed YpC was 8.0, 9th-best in the NFL and much better than average—though an average 6.0 yards of that was allowed YAC, a more middling number. With one interception and two passes defensed, he doesn’t make impact plays against the pass often—and his 102.9 passer rating allowed is right down the middle of the road, too.

The 6'-2", 235-pound Anderson would fit very well with the Lions. He's a solid, above-average all-around 4-3 OLB with a surprising knack for getting to the quarterback—a trait not easy to come by. But, will he be available? Back before the CBA expired, the Panthers didn’t consider re-signing Anderson a priority because 4-3 SLBs are fairly easy to come by. Now, though, Panthers beat writer Joe Person Tweeted that the Panthers want Anderson. How badly they want him is an open question.

Keith Bulluck, like Stephen Tulloch, is another free-agent-to-be ‘backer with a Schwartzingham pedigree. The 34-year-old Bulluck played a rotational role with the Giants last season, seeing just over 300 snaps. He’d averaged about a thousand over the prior two seasons with the Titans, so this was quite a dropoff. Still the nominal starter at strongside linebacker, though, Bulluck graded out as the ninth-best 4-3 OLB.

Part of the reason for Bulluck’s low snap count: the Giants took Bulluck off the field in nickel situations. Bulluck was coming off of knee surgery, and the Giants didn’t trust him in coverage. Bulluck, though, earned PFF’s 10th-best  coverage grade, a +1.9. He was thrown at just 16 times all year, and Bulluck allowed just 8 receptions; that 50% allowed-reception rate was the best in the NFL. He also, incredibly, picked off two of those 16 targets—leading to a NFL-best 44.8 passer rating allowed. Clearly, coverage was not an issue.

Pass rush, however, was a problem—Bulluck made no impact there (+0.1). Bulluck told the New York Post that lack of explosion was where the recovering knee hurt him the most:

""I kind of know the things I was lacking and the things where normally I was strong and where I wasn't as strong," Bulluck said. "Point of attack and explosion were my two biggest things I was missing. Initial contact was fine. When it came to the drive and follow through, even on tackles, dealing with offensive linemen, those things I had the most trouble because I wasn't used to being in that situation."

Bulluck’s run grades didn’t suffer much: his +5.6 was the 15th-best of the 41 qualifying OLBs. Clearly, his veteran savvy put him in the right place at the right time, and kept blockers off him. However, as he said, he had trouble driving and following through, and it showed up in his tackling stats. He had 18 solos and 3 assists, but 4 missed tackles—a miss for every 4.9 tackles, the fifth-worst ratio by a 4-3 OLB last year. However, 12 of those 18 solos were Stops—tied for fifth-best in the NFL. Most telling? Bulluck turned in an incredible +4.8 individual game grade in Week 3—against Tennesee.

Many times, when athletes are put on the scrap heap, they complain they’re worth more than the team thinks they are—in this case, the data backs Bulluck up. He feels he deserves to be a “bigger part of a team’s puzzle,” and he’s exactly right. He knows Detroit is where he’ll best be primed to make an impact, too: the Lions top his three-team destination shortlist.

Quincy Black is a player I’ve always had a soft spot for. The 6’-2”, 240-pound Black sat on my dynasty league practice squad for a few years, waiting for his chance to crack the Bucs’ defensive lineup. In 2009, he finally got a chance—and while he struggled early, he played very very well down the stretch. 2010 was a coming-out party: Black was the 12th-best PFF-graded OLB in 2010, with a +8.0 overall grade. Black was very well-rounded, too: solidly above-average in pass rush (+1.3, avg. +0.5), well above-average in coverage (+2.9, avg. –2.2), and right on par against the run (+2.8, avg. +2.9).

Unfortunately, Black’s breakout fourth season was cut short by a broken arm. In the eleven games he played, he turned in six strongly positive grades, and only one negative one. Black was a sure tackler, making 12.9 tackles per miss. He was thrown at at a roughly average rate, once every 18.1 snaps. He did an average job allowing completions (79.3%, avg. 78.1%),  well above-average allowing YpC (8.1, avg. 9.5), and above-average in allowed passer rating (90.5, avg. 98.8). Black didn’t make many plays on the ball, with one interception and one pass defensed on his 29 TAs.

On WDFN, Tom Kowalski recently said that Black is a player to keep an eye out for; at 27, matching the physical profile, and coming off of a breakout year, he’d be a perfect long-term addition to the core of this young defense. If Tampa won’t open up the pursestrings to keep their 2007 third-round pick around, well, he’d be money well spent.

The dark horse of the OLB free agent class is Justin Durant, a 6’-1”, 240-pound wrecking ball from the Jaguars—a wrecking ball with a couple of cracks. Just look at the radar chart above: Durant’s stonking +15.5 against the run is second-best in the NFL.  His missed tackle rate, one per 8.1 made, is right in the middle of the pack. This suggests, like Bulluck, Durant is slicing through blocking to get to the correct lanes, over and over and over again, showing veteran savvy in just his fourth year. even if his finishing isn’t top-notch.

There are two big concerns about Durant: one is his inability to stay healthy; he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons, plus six games last season. Second, he graded out as poorly against the pass as he did well against the run. His appalling –13.2 on coverage put him fourth-worst in the NFL, and his –1 in pass rush is below-average, too. He’s allowed a slightly-better-than-average 75.6% of his targets to be caught, and his passer rating allowed is dead on NFL average: 98.6, vs. 98.8 . . . but you don’t earn a –13.2 on only 491 snaps without being consistently poor in coverage. Durant has the physical tools to be an impact player, but so far it’s more potential than production.

Stephen Nicholas was a name I hadn’t heard before embarking on this shopping trip, but he’s not news to the Lions. A 6’-3”, 230-pounder, Nicholas was selected one round after Quincy Black by the Atlanta Falcons. Like Black, Nicholas has been the mostly-starter on the strong side for the past two seasons. Nicholas was PFF’s 15th-best 4-3 outside linebacker in 2010, turning in a +6.9 overall grade. He was excellent against the pass, receiving a +1.2 pass rush mark, and NFL-best +5.1 coverage grade!

His run-stopping grades were merely average, +1.1 (avg. +1.4). However, he missed only 4 tackles all season, one per every 9.6 made; that rate was 5th-best in the NFL. Nicholas, like Black, would step in and start—presumably, for a long time to come. His outstanding coverage skills, and ability to rush, are exactly what the Lions need. The Atlanta-Journal Constitution has linked Nicholas to Detroit several times this offseason, so there’s some fire underneath the smoke I’m blowing here.

Another linebacker I’ve always wished were in Honolulu Blue is Bears free agent Pisa Tinoisamoa. Physically, he was undersized for Lions’ DC Kurt Schottenheimer’s tastes when he came out in 2003. I thought he was the perfect fit for the Lions’ Tampa 2 when his rookie contract was set to expire, but the Rams re-signed him. Finally, he came free, but it was the Lions’ first year under Schwartz and optimistically listed at 6’-1”, 230, he just didn’t fit the profile. Not to mention, he’d struggled with injuries . . .

. . . anyway, turns out I was right about that whole Tampa 2 thing; the Bears snagged him and he’s been very productive (when healthy). Graded at +5.8 overall, +1 in pass rush, and +4.1 against the run, Tinoisamoa plays more physically than you’d expect from a guy of his stature. Unfortunately, his –1.1 coverage grade is above the NFL average(-2.2), but not by as much as you’d hope from a guy of his stature. I suspect the Bears will let him test the waters--and if the Lions can't get anybody else, he’d still be a solid upgrade over Julian Peterson’s recent play.

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Mayhew/Schwartz approach to filling holes has been to either pick up stopgaps or invest in in a long-term solution. The Lions invested in Andre Levy, and I don’t think they’ll kick him outside just because—so a retread thumper like Kirk Morrison doesn’t fit the pattern. No, if they bring in a new middle linebacker, it’ll be someone who’ll play middle linebacker for the next three or four years. While researching, I’ve developed a strong feeling that only Levy and Tulloch—experienced playcallers in the Schwartzingham defense--are legitimate options in the middle for 2011.

However, just as this piece was going to press, Mike O’Hara reported for Fox Sports Detroit that the Lions prefer Justin Durant to Stephen Tulloch. Durant’s “speed and versatility” push him up past Tully in the Lions’ scouting grades. Apparently, they see Durant as a guy who can play inside or outside. Frankly, by these numbers, Durant has no business playing outside! The Lions’ defensive scheme funnels runners inside, and the pass rush from the defensive line will force QBs to hit a lot of hot routes and option passes. This puts extreme pressure on the OLBs to cover slot WRs, TEs, and RBs wheeling out of the flat. If the Lions get Durant, I see him playing inside . . . then again, I’m sure the Lions know their system and their needs better than I do—and they actually watched the tape themselves.

Ultimately, the Lions have a lot of options here. They could easily get Tulloch and Bulluck, or Anderson and Nicholas, or Black and Nicholas, or any number of combinations; few of these players will be bank-breakers. The most important thing to remember, though, is that Levy is going to take a big step forward. He missed almost all of training camp, and all of the preseason, due to injuries—and last year was his first year starting in the middle. Whether he stays inside or moves to the outside, DeAndre Levy is going to make an impact just by having his first full offseason in the defense. With a couple of judicious pickups, the Lions could have not only the best front four, but the best front seven in the NFL.

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Old Mother Hubbard: Shopping For Linebackers Pt. I

The Lions’ linebacker shopping is a tricky thing. What the Lions, in theory, need, is an outside linebacker—but the pool at inside linebacker is deeper, and starting MLB Deandre Levy has the tools to play outside. In Part I, I’ll assume the Lions kick Levy outside, and bring in a starting middle ‘backer.

One of the things I noticed about the ILB grades is that they deviate more wildly from popular reputation than other position groups. We fans know we can’t really evaluate secondary play because TV cameras don’t show it well—and analysts can only guess at coverage assignments. Let’s face it, the only reason most fans know Nnamdi Asomugha is good is because so many analysts have said so. Even if we flip to a Raiders game and watch it start to finish, we’ll be unlikely to see what makes him better than most other corners.

However, I’m coming to believe that linebacker play is just as poorly understood. Half of linebacker play is coverage, after all, and LB coverage assignments are even more ineffable than those of safeties or cornerbacks. Beyond that, though, run gap fits are still a matter of observation and guesswork, and without “film study” we’re not looking that closely at LB play anyway. At full speed, all we notice are big stops, broken tackles, and massive whiffs—and not all of them, either. I had to go frame-by-frame to notice this terrible Ernie Sims arm tackle in the hole. The result? We know big names much better than we know who actually had good seasons.

Takeo Spikes is the highest-graded free-agent-to-be, and by all accounts he had a terrific year last year. Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says the Niners re-signing Spikes should be a “no-brainer,” but last year’s third-rounder, NaVorro Bowman, played well in injury relief (+3.7 overall on 217 snaps). If the 49ers are comfortable with Bowman stepping into the starting role, they could let the 34-year-old Spikes explore the market.

Just how good was Spikes last year? With a +24 overall rating, he was the seventh-best graded linebacker in the NFL. For comparison, his ILB partner Patrick Willis turned in a +31, second-best in the NFL. The 6’-2”, 242-pound Spikes was very solid in coverage, +5.9, and incredible against the run; his +18.2 grade was ranked 3rd overall, surpassing even Willis! He was only called for one penalty, but it was declined or offset. The only grade that isn’t outstandingly positive is his –0.5 pass rush mark; he was the only PFF Top Ten linebacker whose pass rush grade was below 0.

As a pure run-stopper, Spikes was nearly the ideal: he had 92 tackles and 10 assists,  and was only credited with two missed tackles. Counting assists as a half-solo, his ratio of tackles-to-missed-tackles was second-best in the NFL. Sounds like exactly the kind of run-stopper the Lions have been looking for since Stephen Boyd, right? Well . . . maybe not.

I compared the ratio of solo tackles to “stops,” solo tackles that result in offensive failure [I can’t find PFF’s definition of Stops, but here’s Football Outsiders’]. Of Spikes’ 92 solo tackles, only 48 actually prevented offensive success. Of Deandre Levy’s 61 solo tackles, 34 were stops, so their ratios of solo tackles-to-stops are quite similar (ranked 26th and 33rd of 5o, respectively). When we add in assists and missed tackles, to get an every-chance-you-had-to-make-a-tackle-to-stops rate, the gap returns, but not as widely: Spikes had a 12th-best possible-tackle-to-stops rate of 1.8, while Levy’s  was a 37th-best 2.3.

Spikes was playing ILB in a 3-4, and though he’s played in many different alignments and positions throughout his career, that’s probably where he’s best suited. He had the benefit of playing next to Patrick Willis, a benefit he won’t have here. He was fantastic in a narrow window, even in coverage (he had 3 picks and 5 PDs on only 48 targets), but the Lions would expect Spikes to cover a lot of ground laterally. Moreover, at 34, he’d be a short-term player at most, at worst a one-year rental. If Spikes leaves, I don’t expect him to come here.

The most obvious free-agent candidate is the Titans' Stephen Tulloch. Graded the 15th-best ILB by PFF, the 5’-11”, 240-pound Tulloch was drafted back in 2006 by Schwartz’s Titans. Last year, the former fourth-rounder’s fifth season, was his first as a wire-to-wire starter—though he started 13 and 12 games in his fourth and third year, respectively. Incredibly, Tully played 1,222 snaps—the most of any ILB in the NFL, by a long shot. His overall grade of +13.6 was well earned, then, as were his run-stopping grade of +10.5 and +8.3. Like Spikes, though, his pass rush skills left a lot to be desired. Tulloch’s –1.3 rush grade slotted him 41st out of 51 qualifying ILBs.

Still, Tulloch’s run-stoppingness cannot be denied. Tully had a solo, assist, or missed tackle once every 7.1 snaps he played—that rate was sixth-best in the NFL. I don’t have run plays face vs. passing plays faced, so that stat may not be gospel—but he certainly got to the ball carrier an awful lot. His tackles-to-missed-tackles rate was 16.1, 16th-best in the NFL. His 76 total stops were the most in the NFL—though when dividing his aggregate solos, assists, and missed tackles by stops, that total isn’t quite as impressive (2.0 possible-tackles-to-stops rate, ranked 25th).

In coverage, Tulloch held up extremely well, despite being picked on constantly; he was thrown at once every 12.9 snaps, third-most in the NFL! Only Pittsburgh’s Lawrence Timmons and New England’s Gary Guyton were thrown at more often (each once every 12.8 snaps). Of course, since his snap total topped the league, his targets do, too, with a whopping 95. Despite this shelling, Tulloch did okay, allowing 72.6% of those TA to be caught, and holding his assignments to 7.0 YpC. He stopped the bleeding very quickly, allowing a fifth-best 4.0 YAC per catch. He also had five passes defensed and an interception—but with 95 targets, those are actually low numbers, 34th-worst PD-or-INT-per-target rate in the NFL. His passer rating allowed was a middle-of-the-pack 89.9.

Tulloch got to the ballcarrier as often as almost anyone, and was picked on in coverage almost as much as anyone. He had the heaviest snap workload in the NFL, and he was involved in those snaps at very high rates. It’d be fair to say that no one ILB did more for his defense than Stephen Tulloch in 2010—yet, the Titans have already prepared for Tulloch’s departure, drafting Florida ILB Colin McCarthy. They fear Tulloch will “cost too much to keep,” despite his obvious value. Whether it’s because Jim Schwartz will be waiting at midnight with a bottle of vino, or because there’ll be a bidding war the Lions will bow out of, Tulloch won’t come cheaply.

Kevin Burnett, like Spikes, played ILB in a 3-4 last year. However, he and his Chargers partner, Stephen Cooper, are both free-agents to be. From what I can gather, the Chargers will try to bring back Burnett and pair him with backup ILB Brandon Siler and/or U of M 2nd-round draftee Jonas Mouton. Burnett turned in much better PFF grades than Cooper in 2010: +11.3 overall, an astounding +6.1 when rushing the passer, and +6.5 in run stopping. His –1.3 in pass coverage isn’t great, of course, but the 6’-3”, 240-pound Burnett finally emerged as a quality player.

Cooper, for what it’s worth, is practically the opposite: +7.8 in coverage, but –0.8 in pass rush, and –4.7 in run stopping. His +3.3 overall is okay, but the 32-year-old Cooper is not a tantalizing possible solution to the Lions’ run-stopping woes, like Burnett. Unfortunately, while Burnett might be good enough to make the switch from 3-4 ILB to 4-3 MLB, Cooper isn’t, and the Chargers will likely pick the 28-year-old Burnett.

The player that isn’t getting much publicity is the Jaguars’ Kirk Morrison, who the Jaguars were hoping to be able to replace in the draft, but couldn’t. He’s been given the “go ahead and shop yourself but if it won’t cost too much we’ll take you back” speech from the Jags’ brass, mostly due to his flagging coverage. But, while his well-below-average –2.1 coverage grade (and second-worst in the league 137.6 passer rating allowed) looks bad, Morrison was one of the surest tacklers alive in 2010.

With one missed tackle to 69 solos and 9 assists, Morrison had the best missed tackle ratio of any inside linebacker in the NFL. His range may not be great—his ratio of snaps to solo, assisted, and missed tackles was 9.6, below average and ranked 31st—but his ratio of solo, assisted, and missed tackles to stops was 1.7, essentially tied for third-best in the NFL. Ultimately, Kirk Morrison plays the 4-3 run stopper as well as anyone—and if the Lions are okay with his coverage limitations, he could be an excellent value pickup.

Stewart Bradley and Barrett Ruud I’ve included more to pop their bubbles than anything else. Bradley had a rough go of it in 2010 after a breakout junior year, turning in a -4.5 overall grade. He was trying to recover from an offseason ACL tear, and later trying to shake off a horrific in-game concussion. Worse yet, Bradley’s injury replacement, Jamar Chaney, performed brilliantly in relief—meaning the Eagles would like to bring Bradley back, but as an outside linebacker. I’ve liked Bradley, but he’s got a bunch of issues and won’t likely be available.

Ruud, a guy I really hoped the Lions would draft back in 2005 (he went one pick before we selected Shaun Cody), has had an up-and-down ride with the Bucs. Last season, Ruud was the 49th-best (a.k.a. second-worst) PFF-graded ILB, with a –13.3 overall mark. In a year where the average was +8.3, that’s really poor. He might be touted as a value option—but if his 2010 performance was any indication, he’s a significant downgrade from DeAndre Levy; I don’t see him as an option at all.

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Old Mother Hubbard: Wrap-Up, Analysis, Needs List

Yesterday, I posted the final post-draft “awesomeness” heat map of the Lions’ current depth chart. I didn’t really analyze it, per se, just provided a list of clarifying/qualifying bullet points. The coolest thing about data visualization is that it simply is, and anyone can understand at a glance what’s going on. That said, I slaved over making the thing, so you folks are probably curious about what caught my eye in the process.

The offensive line needs help. Clearly, the center and right guard were well below average last season; Stephen Peterman in particular played poorly (no doubt due to myriad injuries, as he was much much better in 2009). With the exception of right tackle, there isn’t a quality backup anywhere along the line. The left side of the line is actually quite good, though; if Peterman and Raiola return to their usual standard of play, the starting five should be one of the better lines in the game. If not—or if the injury bug bites—the Lions’ line could be in big, big trouble. I also have big concerns for 2012 and beyond; Hilliard, Fox, and/or Culbreath need to stake their claims on future starting roles.

Calvin Johnson is so good. Megatron was the Lions’ best player in 2010, and it wasn’t close. He was the third-best graded WR in the NFL, and two-and-a-half standard deviations from the mean! I think Lions fans forget how good he is, because they know how good he can be. We keep waiting for him to haul in 140 catches for 2,400 yards and 30 touchdowns—and if anyone ever could do that, it’s him—but maybe we should stop a minute to appreciate 77 catches for 1,120 yards and 12 touchdowns, especially given the quarterback situation.

Non-Megatron receivers need to step up. It’s no secret that Bryant Johnson and Derrick Williams simply haven’t produced. Johnson has struggled mightily to catch the ball, and Williams, when used, isn’t getting open. Nate Burleson is dangerous with the ball in his hands, but isn’t a threat to stretch the field. If Titus Young can make an immediate impact, Johnson and Burleson should have much more room to operate. I’m counting the tight ends here, too; Tony Scheffler had a mysterious stretch of poor form after an electrifying first few games, and Brandon Pettigrew dropped an awful lot of balls he got his hands on (and got called for ten penalties!). Both of them have the ability to be top ten receiving TEs—if either of them can play like it, it’ll be a huge boost to the offense.

The defensive line is strong and deep, but wasn’t invincible last season. Ndamukong Suh likely won’t improve his sack total from last year—in fact, I’d expect a regression—but his overall effectiveness should be better than we see here. Corey Williams played like a man possessed, but his horrific penalty total (15 called, 2 declined/offset) put a huge damper on his final grade. Nobody had more penalties called, or assessed, than Williams. Nobody in the NFL, at any position. That’s not just aggression leading to the occasional jump—that’s a chronic problem that extends drives, in a defense built to stop them.

The much-maligned back seven is just below average. As much as observers like to pretend the Lions’ back seven consists of Louis Delmas and six tackling dummies, none of the presumed starters were more than a standard deviation below NFL average. Amari Spievey actually turned in the best grade of the back seven, and Louis Delmas was playing through a severe groin injury. The Lions added Erik Coleman to the safety corps, and should add a corner and/or linebacker in free agency. If they can get a little better in a couple of spots, the excellent defensive line will be backed by a perfectly average ‘backer corps and secondary.

That said, the back seven dominates the remaining shopping list:

• An impact two-way defensive end to rotate soon, and develop for 2012 [Upon further review, Lawrence Jackson fits this bill].
• A credible backup middle linebacker.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB ready to start right away.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB to rotate soon, and develop for 2012 [I'm giving Doug Hogue the benefit of the doubt here].
• An athletic cover corner, ready to take over one side in 2012.
• If Chris Houston leaves, a complete two-way corner, ready to start right away.
• A left tackle who can be groomed to replace Jeff Backus [I like Culbreath, and have hope for Jason Fox, but calling this need "filled" is too much of a stretch].
• A center who will be ready to rotate at guard soon, and compete at center for 2012.
• A field-stretching #2 WR.
• A power back to complement Jahvid Best.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,team needs,nfl draft,nfl free agency

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Meet The Cubs: Doug Hogue

5.26 (157): Doug Hogue
          Outside Linebacker, Syracuse 

    Deep into the fifth round, the Lions finally “addressed a need.” That is, they finally took a player who plays a position that fans and media identified as a weak spot in the starting lineup. But just taking a linebacker doesn’t mean the “need” has been “addressed;” if a late-fifth-round player stepped off the plane and into the starting line, it’d be surprising. Does Doug Hogue really have what it takes to challenge for a starting role?

Hogue, at 6’-3”, 235 pounds, is slightly shy of prototypical Schwartzingham OLB size. However, he was the fifth-fastest linebacker at the combine, turning in an official 4.63. With that combination of height, weight, and speed, he has a lot of potential. Like Johnny Culbreath, Hogue has the tools to become an above-average NFL player. Unlike Johnny Culbreath, it’s because Hogue’s only been playing his position for two years.

Maybe we should back up. First, I suggest you read this SyracuseFan.com Doug Hogue feature, which gives you a peek into just how long and winding Hogue’s road to the NFL has been:

“Who the heck is that?” Roosevelt High coach Anthony Fiorelli demanded. “Who is that running the ball?”

The answer came from one of the assistants standing motionless in the backfield, his jaw scraping the grass.

“That’s Doug Hogue, coach. He goes to Mark Twain Elementary School. And he’s coming here next year.”

The first play from scrimmage Doug Hogue ever made with the varsity was a run anybody who witnessed it can still recount juke move for juke move.

Fiorelli certainly knew what he was watching. He’d coached three Division I players before. And even as a scrawny 14-year-old, he knew Hogue was destined to be the fourth.

“You just knew it right there,” Fiorelli said. “Even at that age, you knew he was going to play major college football.”

It’s a story Fiorelli loves to retell at every opportunity — not because he can boast some sort of eye for talent, but because its the first chapter of an urban fairy tale.

Hogue grew up into a pretty big boy: 6’-3", 210 pounds by the end of high school. Those moves and that speed in that big of a package is bound to attract attention—and sure enough, Hogue was rated a four-star RB prospect by Scout.com, and a three-star (5.6) by Rivals. He racked up a very impressive offer list of Big Ten and Big East schools, including Michigan and Michigan State. Neither made his top three, however; the Yonkers native went fifty miles along I-95 to Syracuse University.

Hogue was added to the mix at tailback, and in his first two years he tallied 483 yards on 111 carries. Oddly, 77 of those carries came in his freshman season. His role in the offense actually decreased his sophomore year, despite his YpC increasing from 3.26 to 6.63 (4.41 if you take out an 82-yard touchdown run)! Syracuse blog of record Troy Nunes Is an Absolute Magician suggests it’s because Greg Robinson hates Doug Hogue. But the man Michigan fans know as GERG (apparently in Syracuse territory it’s GROB) was axed, and Hogue was moved to outside linebacker after the first spring practice. Per The Cuse Connection, Hogue made an immediate impact:

In his first career start at linebacker against Minnesota in the Dome, Hogue recorded four tackles. Two weeks later against Northwestern Hogue led the defense with 11 tackles, seven of them solo. A week later against South Florida, Hogue added another 5 tackles and his first career sack.

He finished the year with 72 tackles, 49 solo, 16.5 TFL, and 9.5 sacks—6.5 of those TFL coming in one MONSTER game against Rutgers. That performance broke Syracuse’s single-game TFL record—previously owned (in part) by Dwight Freeney—AND earned Hogue the Walter Camp Football Foundation National Defensive Player of the Week. Phil Steele named Hogue to his All-Big East second team, to boot.

In Hogue's second season at linebacker, he switched to the weak side, and took it to the next level: starting all thirteen games, Hogue notched 95 tackles  (60 solo), 10.5 TFLs, and three sacks. He earned Player of the Week honors from both the Big East, and the Walter Camp Football Foundation again with his performance against West Virginia: 10 tackles (8 solo), 2 INTs, half a sack, and a batted pass. By the end of the season, he’d led the defense in tackles four more times, and was named First Team All-Big East.

In just two seasons (25 games) on defense, Hogue climbed his way to ninth on Syracuse’s all-time TFL leaderboard. Impressively, he put on about ten pounds from the start of his senior year to the combine, and didn’t slow down at all (the lower of his two 40 times was a blazing 4.52!). Comments from Hogue’s high school coach just before he committed to Syracuse indicate the Orange didn’t build Hogue’s body out to its maximum potential, either:

“Doug hasn’t touched a weight in his life. He’s incredibly strong from doing natural movements like pushups and pull-ups. Three kids had dislocated shoulders from trying to tackle him last year. His potential in the weight room is insane. I think he’ll end up a 235 pound running back running a 4.4 forty-yard dash. Our school is small. Our starting center last season was 140 pounds. If he played for Christian Brothers Academy in Syracuse, NY, Doug would be one of the top 20 recruits in the nation.”

What are the experts saying?

• My friends at Sideline Scouting:

  Positives: Athletic and speedy, transitioned from running back to linebacker in 2009... Has pretty good coverage skills for the position... Plays with a lot of passion, tries hard to improve as a linebacker... Had good production in 2009 and 2010, combined for 167 tackles, 12.5 sacks and three interceptions in those two seasons... Shows good quickness and flexibility, hips are pretty fluid... Has very good range, can get sideline to sideline pretty quickly... Does a pretty good job blitzing off the edge and is shifty enough to shoot gaps when blitzing... Has a lot of upside, but will need to continue to work hard to improve as an all-around player.

  Negatives: Doesn't have great size or strength, will need to put on some bulk to make the transition to the NFL smoother... Inexperience at linebacker position shows, does not have great instincts, takes too long to diagnose plays and will get fooled by misdirection plays far too often... Struggles to get off blocks, does not have the size to overpower blockers and disrupt plays... Not the surest tackler, wraps up fairly well but does not have the strength to drag some ball carriers down after contact... Has some minor durability issues (knee injury), size may be some cause for concern in that area... Is still very raw, will likely need some time to adjust at the next level.

• Pro Football Weekly:

  Positives: Has a frame to carry added bulk. Very athletic with good movement skills, knee bend and hip flexibility. Redirects efficiently. Chases hard and can run and hit. Accelerates quickly, ranges to the sideline and shows burst to close when he sees it. Flashes explosive striking ability and potential as a blitzer. Good character. Stood out at the East-West Shrine Game.

  Negatives: Does not play with pop or power in his hands — only 18 reps of 225 pounds at the Combine. Not stout at the point. Stays stuck on blocks. Speed-dependent as a blitzer. Still developing positional instincts. Most production comes when he has a clear path. Could require extra reps to understand a complex game plan.

  Summary: Undersized, athletic, field-fast, converted running back with starter potential on the weak side in a 4-3 where he could be protected and allowed to flow to the ball. Could require patience but should be able to contribute readily on special teams.

• SI.com:

  Positives: Athletic linebacker who displays tremendous skill in space. Shows good awareness and instincts to quickly locate the ball. Gets depth on pass drops, displays outstanding skill in coverage, and constantly around the ball. Very aggressive and productive in his all-around game. Fluid pedaling in reverse and smooth opening his hips in transition. Stays with tight ends or running backs down the field, plays with explosiveness, and moves quickly in every direction. Immediately alters his angle of attack and loses no momentum. Breaks down well and uses his hands to protect himself.

  Negatives: Lacks bulk and easily controlled at the point of attack. Gives effort defending the run but not stout at the point.

  Analysis: Hogue showed tremendous improvement the past two seasons and ranks as one of the more underrated weakside linebacker prospects in this draft. In many ways he reminds us of former Syracuse star Keith Bullock, and like the NFL veteran, Hogue should eventually find his way into a starting unit at the next level.

• CBSSports.com:

  Strengths: Works best in space and to the sideline, scraping to chase down backs before they get the corner. Has a strong safety build and is smooth in coverage of running backs and tight ends from the strong-side position. Gets his hands on a lot of passes by staying home. Good recovery speed when beat on play-action or misdirection. Used regularly on run and pass blitzes, can catch running backs from behind from the backside or wiggle through creases to track down quarterbacks in the pocket. Defeats cut blocks on the run.

  Weaknesses: Lacks strength at the point of attack, losing leverage battles against fullbacks and tight ends and winds up on the ground too often. High-cut defender doesn't always break down easily in space. Ballcarriers can stiff-arm him easily. Does not beat blocks to reach the quarterback when blitzing. Has fair hands but dropped potential interceptions. Had arthroscopic surgery on right MCL/meniscus after an injury in the 2010 spring game.

You see a very, very consistent picture: Hogue’s height, weight, speed and athleticism give him the potential to start in the NFL someday—and he isn’t maxxed out yet. He’s still raw technically, and doesn’t always make use of what size and strength he has. He’s more of a hunter and pursuer than a guy who’s going to meet a ball carrier in the hole and pop him—but this may be due to lack of instincts/experience putting him a step behind at the snap. Still, he’s an excellent pursuer, and if the defensive line can keep blockers off of him—Hello, Nick Fairley!—he should be able to make plays from the weak side soon, if not right away.

But who cares what I (or the experts) think? We appeal to the dispassionate Circuit Court Judge Panel of NFL Potential: YouTube Highlight Reels!! Unlike Johnny Culbreath, there is an Doug Hogue-specific YouTube Highlight Reel:

Next up, two video vignettes featuring extensive player interviews about Hogue's switch to linebacker. The first is from the spring practice where he was switched, and the second was recorded a few games in:

I can't embed it, but CBSSports.com has its own Doug Hogue highlight reel.

What do we see? Again, a lot of what they told us above: a lot of speed, a lot of backside pursuit, a lot of playmaking. Not much running through guys, not much blowing stuff up before it happens, but definitely a guy who stands out athletically.

Where does he fit on the Lions? Honestly, I don’t see him as an immediate upgrade over Ashlee Palmer, more like an immediate rough equivalent with notably higher upside. Honestly, Hogue reminds me of Ernie Sims, minus the musculature, plus some height, minus some pop, and minus some crazypants. Hogue is knocked for a lack of instincts, but not a lack of decision-making; unlike Sims, Hogue is sometimes a step slow to get to the correct hole, rather than flying two steps past the correct hole with his hair on fire.

If you're thinking it's ridiculous to compare a former #1 overall recruit in America, who was drafted with the eighth overall pick, to a fifth-round converted running back, you may have a point. But remember: Hogue graduated his small public high school at 6’-2,” 210 having “never touched a weight in his life.” Ernie Sims, meanwhile, graduated from a private Florida football powerhouse rocked up like Wesley Snipes in Blade. Sims was made the centerpiece of one of the best college defenses of the last decade, while Hogue was a tailback in the doghouse of one of the least-well-regarded college football coaches of the last decade.

However valid the comparison is, Ernie Sims is gone—and for the first time, we have an idea who his replacement may be. If the lockout shortens the offseason much further, I can’t expect Hogue to see time at linebacker this season. He’ll certainly be an immediate contributor on special teams, though—and who knows? Maybe by the end of the year, he’ll make a play that’ll leave us all shouting, “Who the heck is that?”

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,2011 nfl draft,doug hogue,syracuse football

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