Old Mother Hubbard: The Defensive Ends

The Old Mother Hubbarding of the DTs got a bit of attention; I was even linked by ProFootballTalk. I’ve been a dedicated PFT reader for, like, ever, and secretly I’m over the moon about that—but I’ve decided to act like I’ve been there before.  So.

The Pro Football Focus data I’m using is widely misunderstood, so let me explain a couple of key points. First, the PFF data doesn’t measure pure talent. The final grade doesn’t mean that one player is “better” than another, just that they turned in a more effective performance, on a down-by-down basis. Second, PFF weighs penalties in the final grade—so Sammie Hill, who didn’t commit a penalty, graded out higher than Corey Williams, who was more effective, but flagged a ridiculous number of times.

Second, it’s my observation that PFF’s system rewards consistency. A player that repeatedly makes a positive impact (and is rarely a liability) will have a much higher final grade than a player who “swings for the fences,” makes a few spectacular plays, and is otherwise often ineffective . . . even if those few spectacular plays change the outcome of the game. Watching at home on TV, at full speed, we tend not to notice line play unless the results are spectacular—so a player who is always a little more effective than you think (like Sammie Hill) is going to grade out surprisingly well. Meanwhile, the home run hitters (like Ndamukong Suh) are going to grade out surprisingly poorly, since every time you notice them, they’re doing something awesome.

Sometimes, this leads to counterintuitive results. However, a lot of what’s really happening on the field is counterintuitive from a fan perspective. I’ve said before that watching film is the “red pill of fandom;” if you start doing it you learn the truth about what’s happening on the field . . . and you realize just how wrong most of the national football groupthink is. PFF is a group of dedicated football fanatics (like you and I) who spend outrageous amounts of time popping red pills like candy. If you and were committed enough do to what they do, we’d likely get the results they’re getting; that’s why I’m using their data. So, with all that in mind . . . to Wonderland.

Just as before, I’ve included the top-graded 4-3 DE, the Eagles’ Trent Cole, and the bottom-graded 4-3 DE, Kentwan Balmer of the Seahawks. The thick black line represents the average for 4-3 DEs who saw at least 25% of their team’s available snaps.

Just a week ago, I wrote that Cliff Avril was one of the two Lions who had the most to prove in 2010; boy, did he ever prove it. Avril was massively improved over 2009, and finished as PFF’s 11th-best graded 4-3 DT. He was 7th-best in the pure pass rush grading, and 4th-best in coverage. His athleticism, and linebacker pedigree, shows through in those grades. The question mark with Avril is his ability to anchor against the run; he grades out below-average there, but was far from a liability.

Avril was the Lions’ best defensive end, by a long shot, and a true difference-maker for the defense. He saw an average of number of snaps, fewer than most of the other top-ten-type—but that was due to injury, not lack of use. If he was healthy, he was in there. By my calculations, Avril was behind only Ray Edwards and Dwight Freeney in pressures-per-snap—he had a truly outstanding year applying heat to the quarterback. When Kyle Vanden Bosch was hurt, Avril not only didn’t wilt under the pressure, he took the reigns and ran with them, handing in better grades as the season went on. Food for thought: he turns 25 next month.

Interestingly, Avril only had two QB hits all season, far fewer than most with his kind of sack and pressure numbers. My guess is that he’s relying on pure speed to get around right tackles—then either getting there and flushing/sacking the QB, or not. I wonder if pass rushers the QB can see coming don’t get as many hits . . . an interesting project for another time.

Bottom Line: Cliff Avril was pigeonholed by most as a 3-4 ROLB, and I’m certain he could shine in that role. But he’s developed into the fast, athletic 4-3 rush end Rod Marinelli thought he could be. Avril will never be a 270-plus-pound, two-way monster—but he’s already an impact defender, top-flite pass rusher, and a huge part of this defense going forward. Signing this RFA to a long-term deal must be a top priority.

The centerpiece of the Lions’ free-agent additions, Kyle Vanden Bosch had a lot to prove, too: namely, that he could still get to the quarterback like he used to. In his first game, it seemed like he answered those questions in style; I said it was “one of the most amazing individual performances I’ve seen.” KVB poured his heart and soul out into that game, trying to will the Lions to victory. He was sideline-to-sideline, or as much so as a defensive end can be.  He put up a truly dominant PFF grade that week, too: a +6.1.

Unfortunately, KVB was inconsistent the rest of the season. He turned in very solid games against the Giants and Redskins, but was negatively, or neutrally, graded in every other game. He was graded well below-average in pass rush; negative in five of eleven games. He was the 46th-best pass rusher out of 65, and had less than half the pressures Avril did—yet, KVB had five sacks and ten quarterback hits in just eleven games. His sack-and-hit per-snap rate was 25th-best in the NFL. This suggests that he was “saving it up” for critical moments; generally just below average except for several plays a game.

However, all of this does an injustice to KVB’s contribution. He was the bell cow for the defensive line, the tone-setter; he pushed every single Lion on the line to practice at full speed, to workout like you practice, to push, to go to the limit and then realize it’s not really the limit and keep going. Avril, Suh, Hill, all the young linemen repeatedly pointed to KVB’s leadership as a major factor in their progression; he was a catalyst, and without him I doubt the others take the strides they did.

I had really good seats to the Jets game, and seeing KVB in action live was something else. He never missed an opportunity—before, during, or after the snap—to remind the Jets that he was there. That he was fighting. That they needed to keep their head on a swivel. That they needed to watch their ass. Vanden Bosch and the Lions out-Jetted the Jets on that day, mostly thanks to KVB and his leadership. PFF graded him at a –2.1 on the day, but I know he had a positive impact.

Bottom Line: Kyle Vanden Bosch is the ultimate leader, a consummate professional—and as a player, the yang to Cliff Avril’s yin. Had he stayed healthy, he would have had seven sacks and fifteen QB hits, more than acceptable standalone production, besides the undeniable halo effect. Unfortunately, he’s 32, and recovering from a major neck injury. The Lions need to find a starting, impact, two-way end to replace him by the 2012 season.

The most surprising line in the chart above is the red one, the one representing Lawrence Jackson. Jackson was the 25th overall pick in 2008, a four-year starter at USC. Lo-Jack is a 6’-4”, 270-pound two-way defensive end, the prototype end for this defense. He was the victim—and the Lions, again, the beneficiary—of “One Man’s Trash” syndrome. The Seahawks let a first-round pick two years into his career go in exchange for a sixth rounder, because he no longer fit their system. To replace Lo-Jack, the Seahawks traded their own sixth-rounder to the 49ers for . . . Kentwan Balmer, picked just a few spots after Jackson in the 2008 draft. Balmer, for the Seahawks this year, was the worst-graded DE in football (see chart).

Jonah Keri just wrote a whole book on how the Tampa Bay Rays went to the world series by making these kind of deals, over and over again. By trading one commodity for another, similar commodity, and getting a 2% edge, over time it really adds up—and at some point, you’ll get a few surprise deals where the edge is way more than 2%. In this case, the Seahawks essentially traded Lo-Jack for Kentwan Balmer. The difference, as you see above, is way more than 2% . . . and where did the benefit go? To the Lions.

Lo-Jack was not a terrifying speed rusher at USC. He had 30.5 sacks in four full seasons: 6, 10, 4, and 10.5, in order. But with size, strength, and attitude sharpened by life in hardscrabble Inglewood, Jackson was a force in both dimensions of the game; in his senior year he paired his 10.5 sacks with 60 tackles—a prototypical Schwartz/Cunningham defensive end.

When injuries hit the defensive line, Jackson answered the bell in a big, big way. Getting a steady diet of snaps from week 10 on, Lo-Jack had a huge (+5.0) game against Buffalo, at left end. He was flipped to the right when KVB went down, and was average against the Bears in his first game on that side. He was flipped back to the left against Green Bay, and had a very strong game, then back to the right against the Bucs and dominated (+4.5). He stayed on the right side the rest of the way out, struggling against Jake Long, but finishing strong against Bryant McKinnie.

Bottom Line: Lo-Jack produced like an above-average starter in heavy rotation, and fron Week 10 on was one of the better 4-3 DEs in the game. I’ll hold off on anointing him the starter of the future for now, because I’d like to see more consistency—but there’s no doubt he’d be the perfect physical fit for the void KVB will eventually leave.

Next, the ever-controversial Turk McBride. Controversial, because I repeatedly dismissed him in my offseason assessments last year, much to the chagrin of the commentariat. This season, the 6’-2”, 278-pound ex-Chief played about 40% fewer snaps than Avril or KVB, but about 40% more than Lo-Jack—exclusively at the left end until Vanden Bosch went down, then exclusively at the right end for the rest of the season.

The stats suggest that McBride was nearly as successful as Jackson; McBride had five sacks to Lo-Jack's eight. The second Green Bay game sheds some light on why they graded out so differently, though. By PFF’s reckoning, both McBride and Jackson had two sacks, yet McBride’s grade for that day was –0.3, and Jackson’s was +2.1. Jackson is clearly having more of an impact down-to-down; Lo-Jack’s run support is much better than McBride’s, as well.

Bottom Line: McBride is an interesting case. Phyiscally, he’s a bit of a ‘tweener, and he did manage to get to the quarterback five times. However, I’ve never liked the cut of his jib for reasons I couldn’t fully explain. The PFF grades show why: when he’s not sacking the quarterback, he’s simply not a factor. PFF’s consistency/home-run bias may be coming into play here, but it supports my eyeball take: Lo-Jack has long-term starter potential here; Turk McBride does not.

There’s nothing that can be said about The Great Willie Young that Neil from Armchair Linebacker hasn’t already said (at breathtakingly profane length!), but I will say this: in only six snaps, he was graded at a +1.5 on the season. He also impressed during the preseason.

Bottom Line: Willie Young is a developmental prospect with a very lean frame, a long way to go, and an undeniable knack for playing football. I hope he has a place on the roster for next season.

We’ve already talked about Andre Fluellen as a defensive tackle. He played 81 snaps there, as opposed to 72 at end, during the Avril/KVB injury phase of weeks 11-15. As a DE, he graded out as a below-average pass rusher, and a well-below-average everything else. I believe his future on this team is as a tackle.

Bottom Line: At 6’-2”, 302, Fluellen is a defensive tackle. He should get this offseason to be developed and coached strictly within that role, rather than being moved all over the line. Instead of frantically gaining and losing weight to fit immediate need, the Lions should develop him this year as strictly a three-technique DT.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions will need to find an impact two-way defensive end, ready to replace KVB as a starter by the 2012 season. Lawrence Jackson has the potential to be that end. Cliff Avril is an RFA who must be re-signed to a long-term deal. The Lions may look for a developmental speed-first end behind Avril, especially if Willie Young does not take major strides in the offseason.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,team needs,nfl draft,cliff avril,kyle vanden bosch,lawrence jackson

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Old Mother Hubbard: the Defensive Tackles

Let’s start with the good news! First, let me quote the “Bottom Line” summary of last year’s defensive tackles, from last year’s Old Mother Hubbard:

Andre Fluellen is a very versatile, high-effort player only two years removed from being a third-round draft pick. Whether he plays inside, outside, or both in 2010, Flu should get plenty of rotational snaps next season.

Landon Cohen is rapidly developing from a seventh-round flier into a useful rotational DT. While he'll never be a 320-pound line-clogger, he's only 23. If he focuses on lower-body development, improves his leverage, and continues to hone his technique, he’ll be a very nice complement to/backup for/situational replacement of Sammie Hill.

Grady Jackson turned in a B- performance in doing exactly what the Lions asked—stop the run on 1st and 10. Even if the Lions draft or sign a three-down starter, Jackson can still contribute in that role. I expect to see him back on the roster in 2010, though hopefully not as a “starter”.

Sammie Hill is already the Lions’ best defensive tackle, and should prove to be much better in 2010 and beyond. He has the size, strength, and athleticism to become a perennial Pro Bowler, and his steady improvement from preseason to the end of the season shows the effort and coachability he’ll need to get there. He’ll start for the Lions this season, and for many more to come.

Bottom Line: There’s no doubt that the defensive line is much stouter this season than last—that 0.72 YpC improvement in the run defense had to come from somewhere!—this is still a D+/C- line. The Lions absolutely must add an impact starter. Whether that is an elite DT talent in the draft—as in, with the #2 overall pick—or, by trade for a veteran starter, or by making a splash in the free agent market, it must be done.

There was a lot of praise for each individual player, but the Bottom Line for the unit as a whole said it best: “This is still a D+/C- line.” The Lions needed more consistency against the run than Jackson or Hill were managing, and much more penetration up the middle than Fluellen or Cohen were providing. They needed someone to demand double teams inside, to free up the ends outside.

Subtractions:

Grady Jackson was released after one year in Detroit. Landon Cohen didn’t quite make the final 53 for 2010; he was let go just days before the season opener.

Additions:

Ndamukong Suh, or course, was the Lions’ top draft pick, #2 overall. The Lions traded a fifth-round pick to the Browns for Corey Williams and a seventh-round pick. This is what is technically known, to people in the industry, as a “filthy steal.”

Chart?

Chart.

This is a star chart, showing the Pro Football Focus player grades Of the Lions’ four active-roster DTs. If you’re unfamiliar with PFF’s grading methodology,  just follow that link. They painstakingly review every player’s performance on every snap in every game, grading their performance on each play from –2 to +2, where “zero” is a typical, “he did his job” level of performance. For context, I’ve included the best- and worst-graded DTs who played at least 25% of their teams’ snaps: the Bills’ Kyle Williams, and the Colts’ Daniel Muir, respectively. The black line shows the league average.

First, we see just how ridiculously good Kyle Williams graded out this year, especially against the run; he was nearly unblockable. This was a good chunk of the reason why the Lions’ runningbacks couldn’t get to the line of scrimmage, let alone past it, when they played the Bills.

Though he played just 372 snaps, Sammie Hill graded out as the Lions’ most effective overall DT, and eleventh-best in the NFL. He was the Lions’ best, and most consistent, run stopper. Hill also went the whole season without a penalty, the cleanest of the Lions’ DTs. Surprisingly, he was also an above-average pass rusher.

Initially, Hill’s performance was underwhelming. He turned in weak grades throughout the beginning of the season, especially against Minnesota. However, after the Jets game Hill turned a corner, and graded positively against both the run and the pass for the rest of the season. His best performance was against Tampa Bay: he played about 40% of snaps, and logged a sack, three tackles, and an assist. I admit, I winced when I re-read my line from last year about Hill having the talent to be a “perennial Pro Bowler,” but his upside is high, indeed—and he’s getting there fast.

Bottom Line: A natural big body who is slowly fulfilling his top-flight physical potential, Hill will remain a big part of the Lions’ rotation as his technique and body develop.

Ndamukong Suh played almost a thousand snaps this year, leading all defensive tackles. In the middle of the season, PFF tried to defuse the Suh hype bomb, explaining that his performance was quite rookie-like. Yes, despite undeniable physical talent, and some monster games and plays, Suh was all over the place in 2010. Sometimes, he flashed truly elite pass-rushing skills;  sometimes, he was blown off the ball. Just as I saw with Sammie Hill in his rookie season, Suh struggled against trap and seal blocks. If the man blocking him wasn’t the man directly across from him, Suh was often taken out of the play.

His awesome closing ability means he’s sort of the anti-DeVries: he gets an awful lot of sacks per pressure. However, just as Jared DeVries put a lot more heat on the QB than his sack numbers suggested, Suh’s impacting the game much less than the sack totals would suggest, especially given a thousand snaps to work with.

Let me be clear: a rookie starting, playing a thousand snaps, and getting stronger throughout the year—his best grades were in weeks 8, 11, 12, 14, and 15—is phenomenal. That he successfully brought down the quarterback ten times is amazing. But, remember about the “instant impact” rookie: “amazing” for a rookie is still only “really good” in absolute terms. You can see on the chart above, Suh is nowhere near the best defensive tackle in the NFL. But his floor is “above-average NFL starter,” and his ceiling is . . . well, through the roof.

Bottom Line: Suh is an incredible physical talent, with almost unlimited upside. As a rookie, he performed like an above-average starter, while carrying the heaviest workload in the NFL. If he continues to improve, Suh will become one of the best in the NFL—and maybe one of the best ever.

For all the smart moves, solid trades, and wise decisions Martin Mayhew has made over his two-and-a-half season tenure as Lions GM, none has gotten a higher yield with less of an investment than Corey Williams. By overall grade, Williams was the “least good” of the Lions’ three DTs with enough snaps to qualify for PFF’s rankings. However, that’s almost entirely due to his worst-in-the-NFL grade for penalties, something every Lions fan knows full well about. Williams was the Lions’ best pass-rushing DT, which is saying something; the Lions’ line consists entirely of above-average pass rushing DTs. He was also strongly positive against the run and in coverage.

At the end of the season, Gunther Cunningham said that he thinks Corey Williams is just as deserving of Pro Bowl honors as Suh. Outside of the ridiculous penchant for penalties (several of which kept critical opponent drives alive), the PFF grades agree.

Bottom Line: Williams was a two-way force for the Lions in 2010, and an incredible addition to the roster. With his natural size (6’-4”, 320 lb.), great acceleration, and sometimes-too-quick snap anticipation, Williams is a difficult assignment for any offensive lineman. It would be really, really, really nice if he could cut down on the penalties.

The only other player to earn snaps at DT for the Lions in 2010 was Andre Fluellen. With much fewer snaps than any of the others, he didn’t make the 25%-or-more cut.  He was very slightly above “average NFL starter” level in pass rush, but was a liability against the run. Combined with a picking up a penalty, his final PFF grade put him as far below “average NFL starter” as Ndamukong Suh was above.

Bottom Line: Flu is still very young (two years older than Suh), and has developed into a decent pass rusher. He still has a hard time anchoring against the run, and is more of a “pursuit” guy. He’s not, then, an ideal fit for this defense. But anyone with his frame, athleticism, and ability to penetrate will keep getting chances as long as they keep working hard. Flu is a perfectly fine rotational/situational DT—and still has room to grow.

Practice squadder Robert Callaway, fresh out of Saginaw Valley last season, didn’t see any action. I’m sure the 6’-5”, 312-pound local boy will get at least a camp invite this summer.

SHOPPING LIST? As a unit, the Lions’ defensive tackles are complete. They join the Giants, Eagles, Raiders, and Vikings as the only teams where every member of the active DT rotation was graded above average. The oldest, Williams, is 30; Fluellen just turned 26, Suh and Hill are both 24. Unless the Lions want new blood to replace Fluellen (unlikely, as they just tendered him an RFA offer), the Lions should make no moves here.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,defensive tackles,defensive line,nfl draft,nfl free agency,ndamukong suh,corey williams

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Jared DeVries Returns; Depth Chart Deep Six'd

UPDATED! Check the bottom for more.
It’s officially official: Jared Devries has returned to the Detroit Lions.  With 16.5 sacks in 32 starts over ten seasons, nobody’s going to confuse DeVries with Kyle Vanden Bosch.  However, DeVries did have a bit of a ‘breakout’ season in 2007, when he racked up 6.5 of those sacks.  He’s also been a player who gets pressure and forces hurries much more often than he actually closes the deal.
Listed at 6’-4”, 275 pounds, DeVries is another prototypical Schwartz defensive end: big, strong, tenacious, snap-to-whistle effort guy, contains the run well and can get after the passer a little bit.  When he left, he was the starting left defensive end, and he made clear to the local media he wants to start again:

"My vision is to be the starting left end, but obviously, I'll have to compete for that like I do every year. That would've been my role last year had I not gotten hurt but, like I said, it's good to be back around the fellas and the competition is good and I look forward to it."

Unfortunately for Devries, Iowa’s all-time leading sackmaster, the LDE spot is a little more crowded than when he left.  Besides Cliff Avril and Jason Hunter, who took turns being #1 and #2 throughout 2009, returning DE/DTs Turk McBride and Andre Fluellen took snaps at left end, also.  As cloudy as the Lions’ DE depth chart was, it’s now opaque.

What’s interesting here is that beyond Kyle Vanden Bosch, the Lions don’t have much financial commitment to anybody.  Cliff Avril and Andre Fluellen are both on the third years of their third-round rookie deal, Hunter’s on a one-year RFA tender, DeVries is now on a one-year deal, and McBride was a street free agent.  The draft will almost certainly fetch at least one defensive lineman—possibly an inside/outside penetrator like Ndamukong Suh (and McBride/Fluellen)--who’d presumably take snaps away from the pure LEs as well.

So, who's the odd man out?  I cannot believe that the Lions will carry three full-time left ends, plus two (or more) DTs that kick out to left end, nor can I believe that they’d bring a veteran like DeVries, rehabbing from something as brutal as an Achilles rupture, if they weren’t considering keeping him around. 

Here are some possiblities going forward:

• The Lions either have no interest in Suh, or have no plans to flex Suh outside.
  
• Cliff Avril will see 20-30 rotational snaps a game, splitting time between right and left.
  
• Cliff Avril will be traded to a 3-4 team, possibly on draft day.
  
• Turk McBride and Andre Fluellen will be competing for a roster spot.
  
• Either Jason Hunter or Jared Devries will be switched to the right side, and their role will be purely to spell KVB.
  
• The Lions draft a 270-something-pound pass rusher like Northwestern's Corey Wootton, and all of these guys are put on notice.
  

When I say these are "all possiblities", I mean it: the Lions could draft Suh and Wootton, trade Avril, cut Fluellen, and put Hunter on the right side. Any or all of the above could happen in any combination, and I'd believe it (except, of course, the Lions both trading and rotating Avril).

By the way, I didn't pull Wootton's name out of the air. He is the prototypical Schwartz DE: size, strength, intelligence, speed, toughness, it's all there. He's going to be available at a bargain, thanks to an injury hampering his senior season. Keep an eye out for him.

Tom Kowalski over at Mlive.com confirms that KVB will be playing the right side, Hunter and DeVries will be competing to be the two-down "starting" left end, and Avril will see situational/rotational snaps on both sides.

Technorati Tags:
nfl, nfl draft, ndamukong suh, jared devries, corey wootton, cliff avril, detroit lions

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Defensive Tackles

*NOTE: VIDDLER HAS TAKEN DOWN ALL MY FILM CLIPS AND BANNED ME.  WORKING ON IT.

Here are my “bottom line” summaries of each of the defensive tackles on the roster, as of the end of the 2008 season:

Cory Redding: The Lions are committed to Redding, money-wise, for at least 2009 and maybe 2010.  Look for him to be starting as a 4-3 UT or 3-4 DE/NT in '09.

Shaun Cody: the Lions' interest in retaining Cody will probably depend on the chosen defensive alignment.  If they choose a 3-4, they may pay to keep him as an end. If they stay in a 4-3, he could be allowed to walk.

Andre Fluellen: a talented natural one-gap player who could blossom into a force as he goes through NFL training and nutrition. In 2009 I see him as a 4-3 SDE/UT, or a 3-4 DE.

Landon Cohen: Cohen is a true 4-3 one-gap nose tackle who was born a little too small. If he could add a lot of bulk he could stay at NT--otherwise, he's another 4-3 UT/3-4 DE project.

Chuck Darby: Darby could make a good 3-4 end, but would be a liability at NT. No matter the alignment, Darby is a valuable rotational player who brings emotional leadership on and off the field--and comes at a low cost. If he'll stay, we should keep him.

Langston Moore: Moore will probably be the first guy cut . . . if he sticks around, he'll be 4-3 DT depth.

It’s obvious that Mayhew and Schwartz saw the exact same thing that you and I do in this list: six players who have no business starting in the NFL, all of whom barely flirt with 300 pounds.  Of these, only Fluellen and Cohen remain on the roster.  Redding, of course, was flipped for Julian Peterson in a truly excellent trade.  He played 15 games for the Seahawks, starting only 3, and managed just 18 tackles (16 solo) and two sacks.
I had very high hopes for Andre Fluellen—but they still can’t figure out if he is an end or a tackle.  He was cycled between the two spots constantly, filling in wherever needed.  I said in last year’s breakdown that:

I see him as a replacement for Cory Redding: a big, lean defensive tackle with a motor and tackling skills . . . I think if he could add 20 or 30 pounds over the next several years and work on his strength and technique, his short, wide frame and high motor could allow him to be a pocket-collapsing nose tackle.

Shockingly, Fluellen’s 2009 production was almost identical to that of Redding’s: in 14 games (3 starts), Flu garnered 18 tackles (9 solo) and 1.5 sacks.  I no longer think he has NT potential in either alignment; he lacks the natural bulk to be a run-stopper.  His body may yet mature, but he’s just not built like a natural 1-technique DT.
We saw evidence of this in Week 8, against the Rams.  Here are two plays where Flu is asked to line stop the run as 1-technique:

On the first play, we see Flu get good burst and initial penetration.  He follows Jackson’s first steps, to the strong side of the field (bottom of the frame).  Unfortunately, it’s a counter.  Jackson cuts back to the weak side, the guard easily seals Fluellen off, and Andre can only crane his head around as Jackson runs past.  Compounding matters, the weakside end took a very wide path upfield, leaving a five-yard-wide hole filled only by 188-pound Kevin Hobbs.  The results are predictable.
On the second play, it's a simple affair: he gets blown off the ball.  Flu’s manhandled by the guard, technically doubled by the tackle—who hardly needs bother—and keeps getting pushed back until Jackson slams into him, seven yards downfield.  Not what you want from your nose tackle on a first-and-10 run up the middle.
On the other hand, Fluellen’s athleticism tantalizes:

This is a wide receiver screen, a play where a defensive tackle almost cannot make an impact.  However, we see him use that burst to shoot through the gap the pulling guard just vacated, getting in the backfield before the center can lay hands on him.  The quarterback has already released the ball, so Flu turns to the sideline without slowing down.  He pursues to the end of the play—and, if the receiver had shaken the corner and cut inside, he might have made the tackle.  A sideline-to-sideline DT?
Here're a couple of very interesting clips from the Redskins game:

This is the 3-3-5 nickel alignment that, when discussed in the preseason, sent Lions fans into a speculative tizzy.  These were on the Redskins’ second-to-last drive, and the Lions used this alignment almost exclusively—drawing a delay-of-game the first time they deployed it.  Sammie Hill, however, was on the sidelines with an ankle sprain, so Andre Fluellen was called upon to play nose tackle.
On the first play, Gun has the linebackers do a presnap dance all up and down the line, suggesting several different blitzes.  When the snap does come, the linebackers all drop back into coverage, and Fluellen ends up mostly one-on-one with giant guard Derrick Dockery.  After a decent initial push gets stymied, Flu keeps the motor going, and manages to get upfield—even forcing a mild hold!
On the second play (and other plays on that drive that I didn’t clip), the ‘Skins took no chances.  Flu is triple-teamed, while the ends are merely blocked one-on-one.  Though the third guy is mostly there for moral support—the center and right guard pretty much neutralize Fluellen—it’s nice to see another team make absolutely sure Flu doesn’t get free while the QB is waiting for deep routes to develop.
This is the duality of Fluellen: he's a very interesting inside-outside prospect, an undeniably talented player who’s far more athletic than a man his size has a right to be.  However, he’s a very, very long way from being a complete defensive tackle.  He cannot consistently hold the line against big guards, and is consistently neutralized by double teams.  However, the Lions’ lack of depth along the defensive line is such that his versatility and potential nearly ensure his roster spot for 2010.
Bottom line: Fluellen is a very versatile, high-effort player only two years removed from being a third-round draft pick.  Whether he plays inside, outside, or both in 2010, Flu should get plenty of rotational snaps next season.
One of the biggest surprises of training camp was Landon Cohen. Coming out of college at 6’-3 1/2”, 278 pounds, the Lions picked Cohen in the seventh round of the 2008 draft, and immediately threw him on the Rod Marinelli Under Tackle Pile. A year later, he added over twenty pounds of pure muscle, proved he could bench 225 pounds fifty times in a row, and earned a spot in the rotation.
Cohen is extremely lean, and very athletic—he ran track during all four of his years at Ohio University—and yet he’s powerful enough to play DT in the NFL. I happened to bump into him at the “Lions Uncaged!” fan event, and I was completely blown away by his physique. At his bigger weight, he’s not just lean—he’s cut, especially in the upper body.
Let's bring up my scouting report from last year again:

Cohen is a true 4-3 one-gap nose tackle who was born a little too small. If he could add a lot of bulk he could stay at NT--otherwise, he's another 4-3 UT/3-4 DE project.

Up to a listed 300 pounds from his original 278, Cohen has indeed "added a lot of bulk", and the Lions have used him as both a 1-tech nose tackle and a 3-tech under tackle in their 4-3 alignment this year. I'm not sure he'll ever have the junk in the trunk needed to be an immovable run-stopping 1-tech, but if he hasn’t yet maxxed out his frame, his potential is great.
What I like from Cohen is his patience—much like a tailback who waits for a hole and then explodes, Cohen has a great sense of where and when a crease in the line will open up.  Watch these two runs from the Rams game; see how he first moves laterally, then bursts past the center:

That motor and burst is great, but he's still got to be able to win one-on-ones in order to be more than a situational player. Here are a couple of clips that show him getting a lot of upfield push--even if he doesn’t make the play, he beats his man and limits the offense’s options.  He’ll have to do this more consistently, and actually make those plays, to win a full-time starting gig, but for now, this shows a lot of progress:

Here's one more I liked. This is the 4th-and-1 goal line stand from the Redskins game. Cohen's lined up as an end, and again he shows that knack for rushing through the gaps opened by center or guard motion.  If you’re wondering which Lion is Cohen, he’s the one who gets a couple yards into the backfield.

The run was designed to go outside of the OT, so Cohen couldn't make the play.  But again, we see his quick feet, upper body strength, and instincts making up for what he lacks in bulk.  Unlike Fluellen, he’s not a straight-line runner who could play outside.  He’s a true DT with good short-area quickness.
This is a good example of how you can't scout body types by listed size: Fluellen is theoretically 6’-2”, 302, and Cohen is listed at 6'-3", 300.   But look at Cohen in that last clip: as the camera zooms in from behind the Lions’ line, you can see Cohen’s shoulders are so wide, his jersey has to crease to stretch over his pads.  He’s built like a DT, he’s just not yet a finished example of one.
Bottom line: Cohen is rapidly developing from a seventh-round flier into a useful rotational DT. While he'll never be a 320-pound line-clogger, he's only 23.  If he focuses on lower-body development, improves his leverage, and continues to hone his technique, he’ll be a very nice complement to/backup for/situational replacement of Sammie Hill.
The Lions’ biggest free agent signing—in at least three senses of the word—was former Raiders, Saints, Packers, Falcons, Jaguars, and Falcons DT Grady Jackson.  Standing 6’-2”, 345 pounds, Jackson’s picture may as well hang in the dictionary next to the word stopgap:  “something that fills the place of something else that is lacking”.  Obviously, there was a big, empty space in the middle of the Lions’ defensive line—and Grady Jackson, at least partially, filled it.
The excitement when the Lions snagged Jackson was palpable.  Jackson was an immediate infusion of legitimate run-stopping ability, something the Lions had absolutely none of in 2008.  I gushed that he’d be worth a half a yard-per-carry all by himself!  Actually, this might have been true; the Lions’ opponent’s gross YpC for 2009 was 4.42, down from 5.14 last season (-0.72 YpC).
Jackson was brought in explicitly as a situational player, not a full-time starter.  As a line-clogging run stopper, he really isn’t much use in passing situations anyway.  He was even deactivated for the Seattle game, because their running scheme is mostly draws and stretches—as Schwartz put it, "That's sideways chasing, and that's not his forte".
Unfortunately, even in his specific niche, Jackson wasn't an instant hit.  He was in and out of training camp--first battling an illness, then dealing with his brother's stunning, bizarre, depressing murder case.  Grady also had a four-game suspension hanging over his head, thanks to the well-known tale of the NFL and StarCaps.
Right up until the end of the preseason, it was unknown whether the Lions would have Jackson available.  Fortunately, Jackson wasn’t forced to serve that suspension at the beginning of the season.  Unfortunately, he didn’t help all that much either:

The first play, we see something that looks depressingly like 2008: both Grady (NT, towards top), and Sammie Hill (UT, towards bottom), are both driven way, way, way off the ball—Grady’s even being singled here!  Depressingly, this happened quite a bit in the Saints game.  The Saints' LG, Carl Nicks, absolutely owned Grady in this game.  He goes 6'-5", 343, but I was apalled by how a second-year 5th-round draft pick just pushed around one of the more prolific run-stoppers of recent NFL history.
The second play on that clip is a little more like it--Grady's briefly doubled, and gets pushed back--but then he stands his ground, gets an arm out and ends up making the tackle.  This is hardly an amazing play, but it's one that would never have been made if Cory Redding and Andre Fluellen were our starting tackles.
While reviewing the film, I found a disturbing tendency: a positively Rogers esque tendency to be unblockable when the Lions are already winning.  Check out these two plays from the Redskins game:

Seriously, this is heroic one-on-one domination, in both plays.  Look at the explosion Jackson gets off the line!  He sends his man reeling and flailing backwards with just his initial punch, then rushes, re-engages, and gets up in Campbell's grill.  In the sescond play, we see Jackson go low--real low.  He dives down underneath the right guard, gets into the backfield untouched, if on the ground, then does a push-up and makes an ankle tackle.  That's an incredible hustle play--and one I don't see on film when the score is 0-10, opponent instead of 10-0, Lions.
Here are two clips that are exactly what the Lions expect of Grady--no more, and no less:

In the first clip, we see Grady hold the point of attack.  Unfortunately, he doesn't make the play, but he at least gets a little push and fights off the block.  In the second play, he's initially doubled.  When the guard releases, Grady sees the tailback come back his way, and he gets an arm free to make the tackle.  Again, no world-destroying, just exactly what the Lions got him for.
The Rams game also bolstered my play-when-he-wanna-play theory.  Here are two plays, both classic DT situations with the Lions still in the game:

In the first one, it's a critical 3rd-and-1, with the Lions down 2-10.  The Rams make the critical mistake of trying to block Grady with one man. Not only does he blow that dude up, when Steven Jackson runs around Grady, he turns and pursues.  Like, he runs downfield!
In the second one, the Rams are backed up on their own 1-yard-line.  It's a tie game, and Grady smells two points.  Again, inexplicably, the Rams try to block him with only a guard--and if their tailback was any less of a juggernaut, Grady'd have gotten his man.
It's clear that the 10-to-15 snaps per game that Grady Jackson can contribute will not make for an effective run defense.  However, he was absolutely critical to the improvement the Lions’ run defense made this season—from “apocalyptically terrible” to merely bad.  Grady’s under contract for two more years, and as a situational/rotational guy, he’s still useful.
Bottom line: Jackson turned in a B- performance in doing exactly what the Lions asked—stop the run on 1st and 10.  Even if the Lions draft or sign a three-down starter, Jackson can still contribute in that role.  I expect to see him back on the roster in 2010, though hopefully not as a “starter”.
Outside of Matthew Stafford, no 2009 Lions draft pick was more talked-about, or more important to the future of the team, than DT Sammie Hill.  A 6’-4”, 329-pound man-child from tiny Stillman College, Hill came to the NFL a tabula rasa, a natural born defensive tackle with zero coaching or technique base. 
Jim Schwartz immediately compared Hill—and scouting hill—to Leon Lett, the small-school big man who helped anchor the Dallas Cowboys dynasty of the mid-90s:

He was playing teams like Northern State and some of these others; I can't even remember some of the schools. The film was real grainy. You don't have the nice sideline and end zone (views), you got end zone that looks like it was filmed from the moon. And you just saw one guy that was twice as big as everybody else and then there'd be a pile and then you'd see somebody get knocked out of the pile the other way and you'd know that Leon was there.
With Sammie, it was a lot of the same thing. Part of the film – literally, they took it from the booth and you can see the reflection of the guy filming it more than you can see down on the field. But then again, you see guys get knocked backwards a lot. You see him show up around the quarterback. He played end in a 3-4 and they used him to sort of shut down half the field.

The consensus was that Hill was a 2-3 year project, an intriguing prospect with the tools to, someday, with the right coaching, develop into a special player.  Instead, the desperately undersized Lions plunked Hill into the starting lineup from Day One.
Hill—despite never having attended an NFL game prior to being drafted—walked onto the field and did pretty well for a rookie.  He still took his lumps, though:

One thing I noticed all season long was Hill's susceptibility to trap blocking, downblocking, reach blocking, zone blocking, or really anything that wasn’t straightforward one-on-one or two-on-one.  It’s like it didn’t occur to Sammie that anyone other than the guy directly across from him might exist.  As strong as Landon Cohen’s instincts were about the offensive line’s intentions, Hill’s were that weak.
To be fair, this is to be expected from a guy who was playing 3-4 end at a D-II school against guys half his size nine months before the above clip was shot.  To be fairer, the guard doing the blocking in that clip is 2010 Pro Bowl starter Jahri Evans; it's not like Hill was getting dominated by a scrub.
Even having taken his early lumps, Hill's natural talent was apparent.  Here's a beautiful clip of him holding his own against a true double-team, fighing them off, and then contributing to the play.  This isn't a chip, or an assist, this is a center and guard both blocking Sammie with everything they've got.  Yet, after initially getting pushed back, he recovers, and holds his ground:

Unfortunately, Hill "had an ankle" in that 'Skins game (to use The Grandmasters' parlance).  He missed the next three games, plus the bye, then came back against the Rams . . . strong:

Here we see two run plays where Hill proves he's too strong to block with just one guy.  Unfortunately, he seems a little more concerned with beating his man than actually tackling the runningback—but that much penetration forces an offense to adjust, and that’s what you need from a DT.
Frankly, folks, I think Sammie Hill is going to be seen as one of the sharpest late-round picks since Cortland Finnegan—a Schwartz-polished seventh-round diamond in the rough.  Hill is the Lions' only quality tackle, and we're only seeing the beginnings of what he could develop into.
He only mustered 14 solo tackles, and 12 assists, in his 12 starts.  He’s no pass rusher—he didn’t have a single sack—but he showed strength, power, and athleticism in a perfectly-sized package.  My hope is that a full offseason of NFL nutrition, strength training, and technique coaching with DL coach Bob Karmelowicz, the man who tutored Jared Allen in Kansas City, will help him take that next big step.
Bottom Line: Sammie Hill is already the Lions’ best defensive tackle, and should prove to be much better in 2010 and beyond.  He has the size, strength, and athleticism to become a perennial Pro Bowler, and his steady improvement from preseason to the end of the season shows the effort and coachability he’ll need to get there.  He’ll start for the Lions this season, and for many more to come.

Summary

The Lions are still desperate at this position.  They started with six players who, as I said, have no business starting in the NFL—and now they have a young, three-down starter on the rise, an aging situational run-stopper, a young, rotational, three-down NT/UT with upside, and a young inside-outside ‘tweener.
In order to continue building the defense that Schwartz and Cunningham envision, they'll have to acquire another starting defensive tackle, one with some real explosion and pass-rush ability.  Cohen is showing that he could develop into that player—if a little too small—but he won’t be that player next season.  Fluellen just isn’t built big enough to be an every-down DT in this system—and though the tools and potential are there, I haven’t yet seen anything from him that shows he can actually rush the passer, from either the end or tackle spot.
Reader SomeChoi commented that there’s a disconnect here between the highlights and warm fuzzy words above, and the apparent lack of production from the defensive tackle spot during the season.  As I said in the comments, this is because you’re seeing highlights and lowlights; it wasn’t feasible to show you all hundreds of snaps of our defensive tackles failing to be awesome.
Another factor, however, was that apparent weakness in the defensive line play turned out to be errors by the linebackers or secondary.  Yes, Julian Peterson, Larry Foote, Ernie Sims and DeAndre Levy are all massive upgrades from last season, when street free agent Ryan Nece was arguably our best linebacker.  Still, the LB play was wildly inconsistent throughout the season—often playing well when the line did not, and vice versa.
All that having been said, the run-stopping is still inadequate, and the interior pass rush is nonexistent.  Though flawed linebacker and safety play exacerbated the insufficiency up front, the insufficiency is real.
Bottom line: There’s no doubt that the defensive line is much stouter this season than last—that 0.72 YpC improvement in the run defense had to come from somewhere!—this is still a D+/C- line.  The Lions absolutely must add an impact starter.  Whether that is an elite DT talent in the draft—as in, with the #2 overall pick—or, by trade for a veteran starter, or by making a splash in the free agent market, it must be done.

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three cups deep: the roster is set

After an especially lazy Labor Day morning, I have yet to sip even a single drop of coffee, let alone three cups.  Rather than attempt to rehash everything that happened last weekend, I’ll simply crib from Adam Caplan’s excellent Transaction Blog:

Claimed CB Cletis Gordon off of waivers from the Texans, waived WR Eric Fowler, released CB Keith Smith, waived WR Glenn Holt, released CB Dexter Wynn with injury waiver, signed QB Brooks Bollinger, claimed QB Kevin O'Connell off of waivers from New England, released G Terrence Metcalf, waived WR D.J. Boldin, waived LB Rob Francois, waived CB LaMarcus Hicks, waived DE Ryan Kees, acquired S Ko Simpson for an undisclosed 2010 draft choice, waived DE Orion Martin, released DT Chuck Darby, waived OT Lydon Murtha, placed CB Chris Roberson on IR, released DT Shaun Smith, waived LB Rufus Alexander, released QB Brooks Bollinger, released G Milford Brown, waived TE Carson Butler, released RB Aveion Cason, released WR Keary Colbert, waived DE Sean Conover, released K Billy Cundiff,  waived RB Tristan Davis, waived LB Zack Follett, waived C Dan Gerberry, waived TE Dan Gronkowski, released WR Dane Looker, released S Calvin Lowry, waived CB Ramzee Robinson, released S Stuart Schweigert, waived LB Spenser Smith, waived WR John Standeford, waived: DE Ikaika Alama-Francis, CB Cletis Gordon, WR Adam Jennings, traded QB Kevin O'Connell to New York Jets for future draft pick, claimed DE Copeland Bryan off waivers from Buffalo Bills, claimed WR Yamon Figurs off waivers from Baltimore Ravens, claimed CB Marcus McCauley off waivers from Minnesota Vikings, claimed CB Kevin Hobbs off waivers from Seattle Seahawks.

Signed to practice squad: WR John Broussard, TE Carson Butler, RB Tristan Davis, LB Zack Follett, C Dan Gerberry, TE Dan Gronkowski, OT Lydon Murtha.

Whew, got all that?  Really, there aren’t too many surprises here.  Mayhew flipped O’Connell, though faster than I anticipated; Cletis Gordon, Five-O, and Adam Jennings un-made the final roster; then a DR, KR, and two CBs  were claimed off of the waiver wire.  My guess is that McCauley and Hobbs will be given a chance to compete for a spot at nickel corner, and the loser will be shipped off as soon as another DT is acquired.  Why a DT?  Well, with Orien Harris (CORRECTION: several sharp-eyes readers noted that I got the wrong "Orion"; Orien Harris is still on the roster--though that hardly eliminates the concerns I expressed below), Chuck Darby, Shaun Smith, and Five-O all sent packing, the Lions are down to Grady Jackson, Landon Cohen, Sammie Hill, and Andre Fluellen at DT.  

Carrying only four DTs doesn’t sound dire—but Jackson is going to be  15-20 snap situational guy, Cohen’s a seventh-rounder in his second year, Hill was playing 3-4 DE in the NAIA like nine months ago, and Fluellen has been working primarily at DE.  There isn’t a single proven, reliable starter to play DT--though Cohen certainly read well for the role, when he auditioned against Atlanta.  In order to stop the run, this defense is going to need outstanding---both explosive AND disciplined—linebacker play, as well as help from the DBs.

New (presumptive) starting safety, Ko Simpson brings both size and speed to the position; one can only hope his athleticism leads to more plays made back there.  I’ve been sweating bullets about the cornerbacks since the day they let Leigh Bodden walk, and the addition of two waiver-wire scrubs doesn’t assuage my fears—especially given the physical-but-lackluster play of Eric King this preseason.  Even if this unit miraculously stays healthy, both skill and depth are going to remain a problem.

On the other hand, the addition of Yamon Figurs is one I’m excited about.  A 2007 third-round pick of the Ravens, Figurs exploded in his rookie season in relief of the injured B. J. Sams.  Figurs became the primary returner in 2008, but didn’t build upon his initial success.  The Ravens signed former Titans CB/KR Chris Carr—remember him?—and Carr edged out Figurs for the returner gig.  As Figurs couldn’t crack the WR depth chart, he was released. 

I still think Figurs has the explosiveness to be a primary returner for the Lions—and with Cason gone, the Lions have only one player with actual experience as an NFL returner: #1 CB Philip Buchanon.  Figurs should have the leg up on the punt returner gig, and should push Williams and Brown for looks at kick returner, too.

When you take a step back and look at how incredibly different this team is from the 0-16 squad, especially on defense, it’s impressive.  Barring any further miracle transactions—and without knowing the compensation given for Ko Simpson, or received for Kevin O’Connell—the Lions have very well in turning the roster over this season.  However, there’s still a long way to go before this roster matches up, on paper, with the better squads in the NFL.

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meet the cubs: sammie lee hill

Easily the most interesting prospect the Lions drafted, the selection of Stillman DT Sammie Lee Hill sent Lions fans into a Tweeting frenzy: Who was this guy?  A DT?  Sweet!  But, from a DII school?  Along with everyone else, I started scouring the Internet for information.  He's 270?  290?  300?  320?  330?  I saw all of those weights, and more, listed for him at various websites, in those first few minutes after the selection.  It seemed like there was practically no real information on this cat . . . was he a colossal reach, or a brilliant off-the-radar pickup?

With a little more Google-fu, I started stumbling upon article after article calling the 6'-4", 328-pound Hill one of the best of the small-school prospects.  Website after website saying he's a raw talent quickly moving up the draft boards.  An interview where, in between "yes, sir"s and "no, sir"s, he tells the story of a time when he helped save a man from a burning building.  And in all of them, I saw one word over and over and over: "raw".

Not heavily recruited out of tiny West Blocton, Alabama, Hill went to the best school that offered him a full ride scholarship: tiny Stillman College.  In order to leverage his outstanding size and athleticism, Hill was actually played on the outside, at DE.  This prevented opponents from double-teaming him--or even running the ball toward his side of the field.  As he told the Tuscaloosa News:

"I learned a little bit at Stillman, but I was just bigger than everyone else," he said. "It was just a man amongst boys. They didn't really know how to teach me. I didn't get a lot of teaching. I just went out there and played how I know how to play."

In both his junior and senior years, he was named first-team All-SAIC--and that senior year, led the SAIC in sacks and tackles for loss.  He was invited to the East-West Shrine Game--which could have really spotlighted his ability--but he tweaked a hamstring, preventing him from really showing his stuff.  Still, it got him on the radar.  When he was allowed to work out at Alabama's Pro Day, Lions DL coach Bob Karmelowicz got the chance to personally put him through drills.  This allowed the Lions to avoid bringing him in for a private workout, thereby keeping their interest in him quiet.  When the Lions moved back out of the first pick in the third round, they added the 15th pick in the fourth--the perfect place to grab a risk/reward pick like Hill, who many sites had graded as a third-round selection.

Many fans are already pencilling in Hill as a starter, as if Grady Jackson is the only other defensive tackle on the roster.  The thing to remember is that one word: RAW.  Sammie Hill is a naturally big and athletic man, but that's it.  He's not an NFL defensive tackle; he's not even really a DI defensive tackle.  He's essentially a blank slate in terms of technique; far closer to Ikaika Alama-Francis than B. J. Raji.  While it's true that Hill's a rare physical specimen, "Five-O" is, too.  Whether that raw potential is ever forged into the real impact player Sammie Hill could become depends equally upon Hill and the Lions' defensive staff.

The outlook for now is that Hill will get a chance, like everyone else on the roster, to prove he's got it.  Then, he'll likely serve as Jackson's understudy while Darby and Fluellen rotate at the three-technique spot.  I imagine we'll see more of Hill on a rotational basis late in the year, as the losses start mounting and Jackson starts to wear down.  2010 is where we'll really start to see Hill either command some playing time--or not.

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cory redding goes sittin' by the dock of the . . . puget sound?

UPDATE: The Free Press has several quotes from Curry on the trade:

"Actually, I’m very excited about that (trade), being that he’s going to be a perfect Sam linebacker,” Curry said in a phone interview. “Ernie Sims is going to be a great Will (weak-side linebacker) and I just have the opportunity to play the Mike. That Mike position is always a position that I always looked at at Wake Forest that I wanted to play but just never was allowed to really just play it 400 snaps (a season)."

Yeah, that's a tortured Otis Redding pun in the title.

Earlier today, PFT reported rumors that the Lions and Seahawks were in talks to swap Cory Redding for Julian Peterson . . . now Killer is reporting that it's nearly a done deal, and Fox is reporting that it IS a done deal.

The knee-jerk reaction is "Oh, I guess no Curry then."  JP is a Sam 'backer, who happens to have a gift for pass rushing, much like Curry.  Theoretically, they would play similar roles in the defense.  However, IMO JP is more limited than Curry.  Peterson was a hybrid DE/OLB at State, a bit of a 'tweener who wreaked havoc from either spot.  However, he's played at the strong side mostly because of his size and speed; he's not that gifted in coverage.  Curry, however, can roam the field like a safety.  If the Lions are considering drafting Curry #1 overall, and having him center JP and Ernie . . . wow.  The Lions would boast a devastatingly fast, strong, and athletic linebacker corps.

Moreover, the Lions would get out from underneath a rotten contract . . . Redding is still one of the highest-paid defensive tackles in the game, yet he's been barely more than a placeholder without an impact nose tackle next to him.  I think we should expect big things from Andre Fluellen in 2009 (assuming the Lions don't draft a DT to start ahead of him).  With their new free-weight training program and an emphasis on maxxing out size and power, I believe Andre Fluellen's athletcism will make him a force to be reckoned with--especially with Grady Jackson occupying two blockers on most downs.

It's sad to see one of the last pieces of What Might Have Been shipped off . . . but it again reinforces a few points:

1) Martin Mayhew is a Real Live NFL GM who has a plan and is executing it like a pro
2) Mayhew and Schwartz are on exactly the same page when it comes to how to build this team
3) They're going to do it by getting bigger, faster, and stronger on defense, right away

I'm all for it.  Yes, yes, yes, today is a good day to be a Lions fan . . . and the blue flame burns a bit brighter yet.

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old mother hubbard: the defensive tackles

To analyze the defensive line properly, we're going to have to briefly review whether the pentagonal peg that is the talent is going to be hammered into a square or round hole: a scheme that utilizes four or three down linemen.  Schwartz and Cunningham have actively evaded this question as they're going to try to fit the scheme to the talent and not the other way around.  Since they've only just begun the process of evaluating the talent they currently have, in theory they have no better idea whether they will run a 4-3 or 3-4 than you or I.  Let's evaluate the talent from both perspectives.

Cory Redding: Redding is the highest-paid defensive lineman on the Lions' roster.  Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2003 draft, he was a strongside DE at the University of Texas, and a linemate of Shaun 'Big Baby' Rogers.  He was drafted as a DE/DT 'tweener, a guy who could dominate against the run on first and second-and-short, and then move inside and rush the passer on second-and-long and third down.  This past season was his sixth, and at 28 he should just be entering his prime.  He's listed at 6'-4", 295, though I thought he looked at least 15 lbs. heavier than that this season.  When Rod Marinelli came to town to install the Tampa 2, Redding was tabbed as an 'under' tackle in the making, a one-gap pass rushing DT in the mold of a young Warren Sapp.    As many know, Redding had a breakout season in 2006, playing like a stud in Shaun Rogers' absence, garnering 8 sacks.  However, when Rogers came back in 2007, rather than pick up where he left off, Redding mostly disappeared.  He took another step back in 2008, even though Rogers was gone once again.  Playing in only 13 games due to a late-season knee injury, Redding was completely pedestrian, getting 38 tackles and three sacks.  Redding is nothing like the force the Lions thought they were getting when they signed him to a monster deal after the 'o6 year.  He's definitely got the athleticism to be a disruptive presence in the middle, but either he has quit on the Lions or he's lost something.  Out of shape?  Less weight work, more twelve-ounce curls?  It's difficult to say.  Of course, it's significant that he's the only Lions lineman that ever commands a double-team, so that can account for some of it--but then he rarely beats the double-team like a premier DT can.  In a 4-3, he is definitely too big and too slow to play defensive end, but with the right motivation he could still be a solid starter at the smaller tackle spot.  In a 3-4, he would make a very good defensive end--he'd just stand there and take up two blockers so the LBs behind him can make a play!  As a 3-4 nose tackle, however, I think Redding would be overmatched.  He could take up a double-team, but not regularly shed it or split it to make plays.  From an off-the-field perspective, Redding is extremely popular in the locker room and is typically voted a captain.  As one of the few holdovers from the pre-Marinelli era, Redding is a rare Lions veteran and a strong, vocal leader.  Even if his play on the field doesn't justify his exorbitant salary, now is not the time to start ditching positive locker room leaders.  Bottom Line: The Lions are committed to Redding money wise for at least 2009 and maybe 2010, so look for him to be starting as a 4-3 UT or 3-4 DE/NT in '09.

Shaun Cody: Four years ago, Cody came into the league as the star of the not-hit reality TV show "Super Agent", a second-round pick in the draft, and the Pac-10 defensive player of the year.  Listed at 6-4", 310, Cody played both inside and outside at USC.  Lacking the speed to be a full-time pass rusher, yet lacking the bulk and strength to throw people around, Cody was prized for being a hardworking, talented football player who was productive at the highest level of college football--sure to find a place in the NFL.   After being drafted by the Lions, Cody immediately got into the rotation, playing in every game, and even started two.  He got 27 tackles and 1.5 sacks in his rookie year . . . up until Redding went down with a knee injury in late 2008, it was Cody's most productive year.  Shaun Cody has been mostly invisible in his tenure with the Lions, not exactly what you want out of a highly touted second-round pick.  Until late 2008, he didn't flash much heart or motor, and even when he did he failed to make an impact.  This year, however, as he matured and his opportunities grew, he was starting to get upfield, make solid tackles, and collapse the pocket.  He didn't get any sacks, but he did get 36 tackles (25 solo) and three passes defensed--all three numbers are career highs.  Of course, these are still very mediocre numbers for a DT that played in every game and started four--but at least the needle moved.  Moreover, Cody's body type and game are ideally suited for the end position in a 3-4 alignment--if the Lions were to move to a 3-4, keeping Cody would make sense--however, this being the offseason after his fourth year, Cody is now due to be an unrestricted free agent.  Bottom Line: the Lions' interest in retaining Cody will probably depend on the chosen defensive alignment.  If they choose a 3-4, they may pay to keep him as an end.  If they stay in a 4-3, he could be allowed to walk.

Andre Fluellen: Fluellen was a rookie this year, a 6'-2", 296 lb. third-round pick from Florida State.  At FSU, he was a tenacious and disruptive interior run stopper--when healthy.  The coaching staff has repeatedly claimed he's a better player than any recent FSU DT, including guys like Darnell Dockett and Broderick Bunkley.  In the NFL, his height, frame, and athleticism projects him as candidate to see time both inside and outside (detecting a theme yet?).  As I posted earlier, "Flu" really started to flash his talent towards the end of the year:

"Andre Fluellen, on the other hand, barely saw the field until the bitter end, but when he did I noticed something. Andre Fluellen was bringing guys down in the secondary for eight yard gains. He was forcing running backs out of bounds. He was wrapping up wideouts on WR screens, after said WRs juked the corners. He wasn't ever collapsing the pocket or throwing guys around, but Fluellen-at 296 pounds mind you--was frequently the second or third guy in on every tackle, everywhere on the field. That speaks volumes about A) his level of effort, and B) his athleticism."

I really like Fluellen's future in the two-years-out timeframe.  His motor and hustle would let him contribute as a 4-3 strong side end, but after adding bulk and strength, I see him as a replacement for Cory Redding: a big, lean defensive tackle with a motor and tackling skills.  In the 3-4, his size would make him seem like an end prospect--but I am not sure he has the point-of-attack strength and bulk to keep the linemen behind him clean.  Also, he wouldn't be used much on stunts or traps, where he could use his lateral and deep speed to get upfield and disrupt.  I think if he could add 20 or 30 pounds over the next several years and work on his strength and technique, his short, wide frame  and high motor could allow him to be a pocket-collapsing nose tackle.  Bottom line: a talented natural one-gap player who could blossom into a force as he goes through NFL training and nutrition.  In 2009 I see him as a 4-3 SDE/UT, or a 3-4 DE.

Landon Cohen:  Cohen was a seventh-round draft pick last year from Ohio.  Not the Buckeyes, the Bobcats.  He was a destroyer up the middle--despite his relatively light 6'-4", 278 lb. physique.  Interestingly Cohen was a 4-year letterman in track at his high school in Spartanburg, SC.  Track!  At Ohio, Cohen played the nose tackle position despite being a little undersized for that, even by MAC standards.  And yet, he was 2nd-team all-conference his senior year, with 59 tackles (27 solo), 12.5 TFL and 1.5 sacks, starting all twelve games.  Despite being a little taller and notably thinner than fellow rookie Andre Fluellen, Cohen is listed on the Lions depth chart as a nose tackle.  He saw time against several teams, setting his career high in tackles against the Colts (4).  I didn't get to see much of him, but from what I can find in scouting reports, he has excellent technique and leverage, helping him make up for his lack of beef.  He seems to excel in initial burst and shedding blocks with quick moves, but doesn' t have the range or athleticism to run around making plays on the edge or in space.  According to the info I can find, he's at his best as a one-gap upfield rusher.  Bottom line: Cohen is a true 4-3 one-gap nose tackle who was born a little too small.  If he could add a lot of bulk he could stay at NT--otherwise, he's another 4-3 UT/3-4 DE project.

Chuck Darby:  The "War Daddy" was one of the system players brought in by Rod Marinelli.  Darby was an undrafted free agent NT who spent 2000 on the Bucs' practice squad, then got signed in 2001, and finished the 2002 season by starting in the Super Bowl.  Darby left for Seattle as a free agent, and they were happy to get him.  By all accounts, Darby was a valued teammate whose intensity and relentless drive helped rally everyone around him.  Seattle wanted to keep him, but Marinelli pushed hard to get him signed first.  Not ideally sized at 6'-0", 297"  (DETECTING A THEME YET?), Darby plays with great passion and motivation.  When able to get the edge on his opponent, Darby can be a disruptive force up the middle on both passing and running downs.  However, he is unable to maintain his extraordinary effort for a great number of snaps, and with the Lions defense often being hung out to dry by the offense, Darby became a situational player.  Also, when facing elite interior linemen, Darby is erased--he posted just three total tackles in two games against Minnesota's Matt Birk and Steve Hutchinson--at some point, effort cannot overcome a lack of size and talent.  Bottom line: Darby could make a good 3-4 end, but would be a liability at NT.  No matter the alignment, Darby is a valuable rotational player who brings emotional leadership on and off the field--and comes at a low cost.  If he'll stay, we should keep him.

Langston Moore:  Moore is a 4th-year veteran still coming into his own.  He's made an impression ever since the Lions signed him late in the 2006 season.  A former sixth-round pick of the Bengals, he's on his third NFL roster--which is odd because for a sixth-rounder who's bounced around so much, he's seen plenty o f action.  At 6'-1", 305 lbs, Moore is a little shy on bulk for an NT (is there an echo in here?).  Moore has been an effective rotational body at NT, enough so that he was one of eleven defensive linemen kept on the original 53-man roster.  Moore is an intelligent, enthusiastic young player with burgeouning business interests off the field, but he's already behind Cohen on the depth chart, and I don't see that changing any time soon.  Bottom line: Moore will probably be the first guy cut . . . if he sticks around, he'll be 4-3 DT depth.

SUMMARY:

Going by listed height and weight, and the roles they typically play, the Lions have 4 guys who are somewhere between a 4-3 strongside run-stuffing DE, a 3-4 DE, and a 4-3 'under' or 'three-technique' DT.  The only natural 4-3 nose tackles they have are both sub-300-pounders.  In case you didn't notice, there is a recurring theme of 'undersized'.  The Lions do not have enough bulk up the middle, and were regularly pushed around in the run game.  This was most evident in the Thanksgiving Day debacle, where Tennesee's excellent offensive line and running backs were absolutely gashing the Lions for 7-, 10-, 20-yard chunks just by running up the middle.  It really looked like the Titans put it in the cooler before the first quarter was out--but just running the same four or five run plays was absolutely blowing holes in the Lions defense.  If the Lions stay with a 4-3, they are going to need to improve upon Chuck Darby as a starting NT, and either Redding is going to have to recapture his 2006 form, or Fluellen is going to have to take big strides and make an impact, or both.  If they move to a 3-4, the Lions will be absolutely destitute at NT.  The biggest body they have is Cody, and IMO he would be worthless as a two-gap tackle.  Redding could pound some cheeseburgers and be subpar there, but nobody else--Darby, Cohen, Fluellen--could even hope start at NT in 2009.  They would have to acquire a starter--either a proven veteran free agent, or a rookie acquired with one of their first three picks.  The good news is that there would be a surplus of young, interesting 3-4 DEs.  If you had a rejuvenated Redding, Cody, and Fluellen rotating between two DE spots, with a big fat dude in the middle, THAT could be an effective DL.

On the free agent market, the "big fish" is Titans DT Albert Haynesworth, a monstrous talent who is practically a run defense unto himself.  Many Lions fans hope that Haynesworth is looking to move with his defensive coordinator, new Lions HC Jim Schwartz, but that runs counter to everything Lewand and Mayhew have openly said about their plans to build through the draft instead of free agency.  Mayhew even explicitly said that the Lions won't be making the huge-money deal for the splashy guy at midnight the first day . . . which seems exactly the kind of deal Haynesworth will be looking for.  There are a few intriguing veterans who may get a look, like Tampa DT Jovan Haye, but I don't see a quick fix out there.  In the draft, the premium talent is a guy I suggested people watch a while ago, Boston College man-elephant B.J. Raji.  Raji is an honest 350 and is exactly the sort of dominating bulk you want as a 3-4 two-gap tackle--yet he shows burst and athleticism too.  His downfall appears to be consistent effort and motivation, but then many physical freaks run into those issues.  How many of you out there are clamoring for Shaun "25 Snaps and Four Tanks of Oxygen" Rogers back right now?  If Raji were available at the 1.20 spot, he'd be very hard to pass up--no matter the defensive alignment we choose.

Next up, defensive ends . . .

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