Three Cups Deep: The Parable of the One-Eyed Beggar

Long ago, there was a one-eyed man, living as a beggar on the street. He survived on the scraps and crumbs left behind by those around him. Mostly, he was ignored—though occasionally some would cruelly mock his misfortune. One day he awoke to find, miraculously, he had two fully-functioning eyes. He leapt to his feet, and sang praises to the heavens.

He ran to the nearest store, and with his last copper bought thick paper stock, ink, and quill. He fashioned a sign that said “EYE FOR SALE.” He returned to his begging spot, proudly holding the sign high. A passerby asked, “You suffered so long for want of a second eye; why now would you willingly sell the first?” The beggar replied, “I figure I can probably get like a fourth round pick for it.”

. . . perhaps that’s a little dramatic. But I’m astonished by Lions fans’ talk about trading Sammie Hill. Yes, the addition of Nick Fairley means that the Lions now have both quality and depth on the defensive line—but that’s not a situation that needs fixing. Suh and Fairley will rotate with Hill and Williams to keep all of them fresh for four quarters—and sixteen games. With those four tackles—plus the corps of ends they have in KVB, Avril, and Jackson—the Lions’ defensive line will be able to rotate in many different looks and packages without compromising the effectiveness of the line.

Not only is that a good thing, it’s the design goal of the defense! As long as that defensive line is dominant—disrupting the pass and containing the run—the Lions’ scoring defense is going to be at least decent, no matter what’s going on in the back seven. However, if injuries or fatigue begin to take their toll, and the DL performance slips, suddenly the whole thing turns to cheesecloth.

Still, let’s say Hill weren’t a member of the defense’s signature position group, where they’re trying to stack talent upon talent at almost any cost. He was a fourth-round draft pick, and is still on his rookie contract. His upside is phenomenal; he has the raw physical tools to become an elite run-stopping DT in the mold of Pat Williams or Grady Jackson. We knew Hill would take a few years to reach that potential—and this year’s Old Mother Hubbard shows that Hill’s already better than most run-stopping 4-3 DTs. So, he's already a valuable contributor, he may be developing into an elite player as we speak, and the cost of keeping him around is minimal. That is the last guy you’d ever want to trade.

Just look at the market, here: Lawrence Jackson was two years removed from being a first-round pick, and had flashed potential despite being a bad schematic fit. The Lions got him for a sixth-rounder, and he played at an extremely high level when called upon. Do really want the Lions to flip Sammie Hill for a sixth, fifth, fourth, or even third-round pick and watch him go to the Pro Bowl elsewhere, while the Lions start from scratch with another rookie?

I’m fascinated by the modern NFL fan’s drive for mediocrity. Whether it’s from playing too much Madden franchise mode, or a lack of understanding what separates the wheat from the chaff in the NFL, we fans (I include myself) want to take our team’s resources and trowel them evenly across the roster: we cheer for our team to get 22 “pretty good” starters.

Wherever we see a “hole” in the starting lineup, we want it “filled”—preferably with a second- or third-round pick if the “hole” isn’t on the OL or DL. In a startling flip from fan attitudes of the 80s, we detest it when a high draft pick, or rich free agent contract, is lavished on a non-lineman (I blame this on the dominance of the 1990s Cowboys). Further, once that “hole” is “filled,” and we have an “extra” player, we want to flip him for whatever we can get because he’s “being wasted.” We believe that all rookies are guaranteed to hit their “upside.” We pretend that injuries either do not happen or are the ineffable will of the Football Gods, so preparing for them is folly.

All told, the modern NFL fan seems to want their team comprised entirely of second- and third-round picks—drafted to fill immediate holes at the time of their drafting—plus mid-tier recycled veteran free agents. Oh, and an offensive line comprised entirely of former first-rounders. No holes, no superstars, no difference-makers either way, just 22 B-minus starters with nothing behind them. The problem with all this is that that team would suck.

What's the lesson here? That the Lions, for the first time in forever, have skill AND talent AND depth. All three are required to win in the NFL; we got dramatic proof of that at the tail end of last season! Sammie Hill and Lawrence Jackson and Bobby Carpenter and Nate Vasher and Shaun Hill and Ashlee Palmer and Drew Stanton won those four straight games as much as Ndamukong Suh and Jahvid Best and Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson did; maybe more so.

We've waited so long for the Lions to rise up in strength and become a legitimate contender; don’t be so quick to cripple them.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,sammie hill,sammie lee hill,defensive tackles,defensive lines

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Old Mother Hubbard: the Defensive Tackles

Let’s start with the good news! First, let me quote the “Bottom Line” summary of last year’s defensive tackles, from last year’s Old Mother Hubbard:

Andre Fluellen is a very versatile, high-effort player only two years removed from being a third-round draft pick. Whether he plays inside, outside, or both in 2010, Flu should get plenty of rotational snaps next season.

Landon Cohen is rapidly developing from a seventh-round flier into a useful rotational DT. While he'll never be a 320-pound line-clogger, he's only 23. If he focuses on lower-body development, improves his leverage, and continues to hone his technique, he’ll be a very nice complement to/backup for/situational replacement of Sammie Hill.

Grady Jackson turned in a B- performance in doing exactly what the Lions asked—stop the run on 1st and 10. Even if the Lions draft or sign a three-down starter, Jackson can still contribute in that role. I expect to see him back on the roster in 2010, though hopefully not as a “starter”.

Sammie Hill is already the Lions’ best defensive tackle, and should prove to be much better in 2010 and beyond. He has the size, strength, and athleticism to become a perennial Pro Bowler, and his steady improvement from preseason to the end of the season shows the effort and coachability he’ll need to get there. He’ll start for the Lions this season, and for many more to come.

Bottom Line: There’s no doubt that the defensive line is much stouter this season than last—that 0.72 YpC improvement in the run defense had to come from somewhere!—this is still a D+/C- line. The Lions absolutely must add an impact starter. Whether that is an elite DT talent in the draft—as in, with the #2 overall pick—or, by trade for a veteran starter, or by making a splash in the free agent market, it must be done.

There was a lot of praise for each individual player, but the Bottom Line for the unit as a whole said it best: “This is still a D+/C- line.” The Lions needed more consistency against the run than Jackson or Hill were managing, and much more penetration up the middle than Fluellen or Cohen were providing. They needed someone to demand double teams inside, to free up the ends outside.

Subtractions:

Grady Jackson was released after one year in Detroit. Landon Cohen didn’t quite make the final 53 for 2010; he was let go just days before the season opener.

Additions:

Ndamukong Suh, or course, was the Lions’ top draft pick, #2 overall. The Lions traded a fifth-round pick to the Browns for Corey Williams and a seventh-round pick. This is what is technically known, to people in the industry, as a “filthy steal.”

Chart?

Chart.

This is a star chart, showing the Pro Football Focus player grades Of the Lions’ four active-roster DTs. If you’re unfamiliar with PFF’s grading methodology,  just follow that link. They painstakingly review every player’s performance on every snap in every game, grading their performance on each play from –2 to +2, where “zero” is a typical, “he did his job” level of performance. For context, I’ve included the best- and worst-graded DTs who played at least 25% of their teams’ snaps: the Bills’ Kyle Williams, and the Colts’ Daniel Muir, respectively. The black line shows the league average.

First, we see just how ridiculously good Kyle Williams graded out this year, especially against the run; he was nearly unblockable. This was a good chunk of the reason why the Lions’ runningbacks couldn’t get to the line of scrimmage, let alone past it, when they played the Bills.

Though he played just 372 snaps, Sammie Hill graded out as the Lions’ most effective overall DT, and eleventh-best in the NFL. He was the Lions’ best, and most consistent, run stopper. Hill also went the whole season without a penalty, the cleanest of the Lions’ DTs. Surprisingly, he was also an above-average pass rusher.

Initially, Hill’s performance was underwhelming. He turned in weak grades throughout the beginning of the season, especially against Minnesota. However, after the Jets game Hill turned a corner, and graded positively against both the run and the pass for the rest of the season. His best performance was against Tampa Bay: he played about 40% of snaps, and logged a sack, three tackles, and an assist. I admit, I winced when I re-read my line from last year about Hill having the talent to be a “perennial Pro Bowler,” but his upside is high, indeed—and he’s getting there fast.

Bottom Line: A natural big body who is slowly fulfilling his top-flight physical potential, Hill will remain a big part of the Lions’ rotation as his technique and body develop.

Ndamukong Suh played almost a thousand snaps this year, leading all defensive tackles. In the middle of the season, PFF tried to defuse the Suh hype bomb, explaining that his performance was quite rookie-like. Yes, despite undeniable physical talent, and some monster games and plays, Suh was all over the place in 2010. Sometimes, he flashed truly elite pass-rushing skills;  sometimes, he was blown off the ball. Just as I saw with Sammie Hill in his rookie season, Suh struggled against trap and seal blocks. If the man blocking him wasn’t the man directly across from him, Suh was often taken out of the play.

His awesome closing ability means he’s sort of the anti-DeVries: he gets an awful lot of sacks per pressure. However, just as Jared DeVries put a lot more heat on the QB than his sack numbers suggested, Suh’s impacting the game much less than the sack totals would suggest, especially given a thousand snaps to work with.

Let me be clear: a rookie starting, playing a thousand snaps, and getting stronger throughout the year—his best grades were in weeks 8, 11, 12, 14, and 15—is phenomenal. That he successfully brought down the quarterback ten times is amazing. But, remember about the “instant impact” rookie: “amazing” for a rookie is still only “really good” in absolute terms. You can see on the chart above, Suh is nowhere near the best defensive tackle in the NFL. But his floor is “above-average NFL starter,” and his ceiling is . . . well, through the roof.

Bottom Line: Suh is an incredible physical talent, with almost unlimited upside. As a rookie, he performed like an above-average starter, while carrying the heaviest workload in the NFL. If he continues to improve, Suh will become one of the best in the NFL—and maybe one of the best ever.

For all the smart moves, solid trades, and wise decisions Martin Mayhew has made over his two-and-a-half season tenure as Lions GM, none has gotten a higher yield with less of an investment than Corey Williams. By overall grade, Williams was the “least good” of the Lions’ three DTs with enough snaps to qualify for PFF’s rankings. However, that’s almost entirely due to his worst-in-the-NFL grade for penalties, something every Lions fan knows full well about. Williams was the Lions’ best pass-rushing DT, which is saying something; the Lions’ line consists entirely of above-average pass rushing DTs. He was also strongly positive against the run and in coverage.

At the end of the season, Gunther Cunningham said that he thinks Corey Williams is just as deserving of Pro Bowl honors as Suh. Outside of the ridiculous penchant for penalties (several of which kept critical opponent drives alive), the PFF grades agree.

Bottom Line: Williams was a two-way force for the Lions in 2010, and an incredible addition to the roster. With his natural size (6’-4”, 320 lb.), great acceleration, and sometimes-too-quick snap anticipation, Williams is a difficult assignment for any offensive lineman. It would be really, really, really nice if he could cut down on the penalties.

The only other player to earn snaps at DT for the Lions in 2010 was Andre Fluellen. With much fewer snaps than any of the others, he didn’t make the 25%-or-more cut.  He was very slightly above “average NFL starter” level in pass rush, but was a liability against the run. Combined with a picking up a penalty, his final PFF grade put him as far below “average NFL starter” as Ndamukong Suh was above.

Bottom Line: Flu is still very young (two years older than Suh), and has developed into a decent pass rusher. He still has a hard time anchoring against the run, and is more of a “pursuit” guy. He’s not, then, an ideal fit for this defense. But anyone with his frame, athleticism, and ability to penetrate will keep getting chances as long as they keep working hard. Flu is a perfectly fine rotational/situational DT—and still has room to grow.

Practice squadder Robert Callaway, fresh out of Saginaw Valley last season, didn’t see any action. I’m sure the 6’-5”, 312-pound local boy will get at least a camp invite this summer.

SHOPPING LIST? As a unit, the Lions’ defensive tackles are complete. They join the Giants, Eagles, Raiders, and Vikings as the only teams where every member of the active DT rotation was graded above average. The oldest, Williams, is 30; Fluellen just turned 26, Suh and Hill are both 24. Unless the Lions want new blood to replace Fluellen (unlikely, as they just tendered him an RFA offer), the Lions should make no moves here.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,defensive tackles,defensive line,nfl draft,nfl free agency,ndamukong suh,corey williams

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Highlight Reel Diaries, Vol. I

Will Matthew Stafford start another game this season? It seems less likely by the day. With every tight end, runningback, and offensive lineman added to the Injured Reserve list, the already-iffy situation Stafford was drafted into gets . . . iffier.
He has fewer weapons with which he can attack opposing defenses, and less protection from enemy attacks. The Lions may indeed be his team now—but that team is currently as bad as it’s ever been. With only two wins so far, and three games left to go, victory has never mattered less.
We can debate about whether starting Stafford in week one, and on Thanksgiving, were wise decisions. But here and now, the decision to shut him down is easy. Unfortunately, it really is his team.
It’s become apparent that without Matthew Stafford at the helm, the Lions have no chance to win. It’s both exciting and depressing to say that about a rookie quarterback, but it’s true. Naturally, it follows that as fans, if there’s no chance of victory, there’s no reason to watch.
Ah, but there is. While the offense has been decimated by injuries, the defense is still relatively intact. Sammie Hill is developing into a force in the middle, and the battle between DeAndre Levy and Ernie Sims will affect the future of all three veteran starters.
Louis Delmas may, or may not, play—but the rest of the defensive backfield is auditioning for next season. Guys like Will James, Marvin White, and possibly new signee Brian Witherspoon will have to make an impact—or face the Turk.
Most importantly, we’ll see a rookie coach developing, too. How this team responds to last week’s fiasco will say a lot about Jim Schwartz’s ability to motivate. Two games ago, against the Bengals, it seemed as though the Lions’ defense played their best game of the season. Now, with absolutely nothing on the line, they’ll need to do that well again just to keep the Cardinals from blowing them out of the stadium.
It’s easy to throw in the towel. It’s easy to stop watching the games—especially when you’re assisted by the NFL’s blackout policy. It’s easy to start talking about free agency and the draft. It’s easy to start talking about Maybe Next Year all over again. But if you watch—really watch—on Sunday, you’ll get a sneak preview of Next Year.
Watch the players who’ll be the foundation of the defense for years to come. Watch the level of effort the veterans put out. Watch to see if Calvin Johnson plays, and if he does how hard he goes. Most of all, though, watch Jim Schwartz on the sideline—both his demeanor, and how the players respond to him. With luck, he’ll never have to coach through darker days than these—and there’s no true measure of a man than how he performs during his darkest days.

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Morning view

I've decided to continue with the Three Cups Deep-style quick hits throughout training camp; there's so much info coming out now that I've gotta hustle to skim off the cream of the crop and dollop it in your morning joe.  Monday’s practice sessions didn’t see a lot of new storylines break; rather, we saw a lot of the same storylines develop:

• DT Landon Cohen continued to impress.  According to Tom Kowalski over at Mlive.com, Cohen followed up his jaw-dropping 50-rep performance in the bench press this weekend by making play after play on Monday.  Some folks are already calling him “Cohen the Barbarian”, which I find hilarious—those doing so are likely unaware of the literary allusion they make.  Cohen celebrated his 23rd birthday yesterday, and as he says this is indicative of his “grown-man strength kicking in”.  I should emphasize that there are plenty of rookies drafted in April whose 23rd birthday was a lot further back in time than yesterday.  Cohen, if he can continue to develop like this, could be the surprise gem that saves the Lions’ defense—in a year or two.  Unfortunately, there’s no mention of who these reps came against—and if it was linemen like Damion Cook and Dylan Gandy, we can’t start toasting Cohen’s breakout just yet.  Don’t forget, recent Lions past is full of traning camp rags-to-riches stories that never panned out.  Greg Blue, “Blue” Adams, David Kircus, Scotty Anderson . . .
  
  
• The Detroit News’ John Niyo writes that DT Sammie Hill is getting a lot of special attention from defensive line coach Bob Karmelowicz.  There’s a few great quotes from Schwartz in that story about how scouting Hill reminded him of scouting Leon Lett—and frankly, thoughts about the next Big Cat in Honolulu Blue get me all hot and bothered.  Here’s another difference between Schwartz and Marinelli: instead of the defensive line coach stopping defensive line drills to work with a guy like Hill—the head coach would stop team drills to work with a guy like Hill! Okay, that might be a sight exaggeration, but still—Schwartz is excited to see Hill in practice and watch the game film afterwards; NOT spending big chunks of practice working on fine points of technique with individual players.  Schwartz is coaching the coaches, and letting the coaches coach the players—exactly as it should be.
  
  
• Killer also wrote a nice little piece on that exact point: Schwartz spending time with both the offense and the defense—and how his coaching to “situations” and mentally tying what they’re doing on the practice field to what they do in games so wildly varies from Marinelli’s.
  
  
• Before the first all-roster minicamp, I wrote about ‘key performance indicators”, things that fans should watch for to see if real progress is being made.  One of those was the matchup of the receivers versus the corners; since we know for a fact that Megatron is an elite wideout, how the Lions’ corners fare against him will be a great measuring stick for how they’re doing in general.  So far, the results are looking good; according to the Free Press’s Nick Cotsonika, #1 CB Phillip Buchanon has been holding his own.  Killer reports that former EMU standout Chris Roberson got some reps with the ones when Eric King and Keith Smith both took the morning off with minor injuries—and did extremely well.

As always, stay tuned both here and at my Twitter feed for the latest!

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three cups deep

I find myself waffling between waxing rhapsodic about the hedonistic pleasures of brewing coffee, and writing about the whole weekend’s worth of Detroit Lions training camp action.  I know what you folks have come here for, though, so I’ll get right to the good stuff:

• Though many insist on 100% arabica beans in their espresso, I’ve found that a well-selected robusta bean can add a lot of bite and body to an otherwise . . . oh.  What?   . . . *sigh* . . . fine.
  
  
• It’s no secret that the Lions’ new defensive scheme is going to rely heavily on the play of the tackles to stop the run.  With veteran run-stuffer Grady Jackson likely to miss the first few games of the season—and likely to be on a limited-snap leash after that--the Lions will desperately need at least a couple of the guys behind him on the depth chart to make a big impact.  Saturday’s conditioning tests saw two young defensive tackles make statements, indeed: Sammie Hill failed the conditioning test given to all players prior to the first practice.  We’re assured this doesn’t mean much; Hill passed the test later in the afternoon.  Hill himself blamed it on trying too hard to ‘wow’ with his long shuttle time, and running out of gas before he could finish.  However, this conditioning test was like homework—all of these players passed these tests at the conclusion of minicamp.  Seeing Hill on the sidelines for the first Saturday session because he failed the conditioning test was not a great sign.  Landon Cohen, however, blew everyone away by benching 225 pounds an incredible 50 times.  For perspective, B.J. Raji did 33 reps at the combine;  Sammie Hill did 27.  Cohen’s a very interesting case study.  When I reviewed the Lions’ 2008 defensive tackles in my Old Mother Hubbard series, this is what I said about him:

  “Cohen was a seventh-round draft pick last year from Ohio.  Not the Buckeyes, the Bobcats.  He was a destroyer up the middle, despite his relatively light 6'-4", 278 lb. physique.  Interestingly, Cohen was a 4-year letterman in track at his high school in Spartanburg, SC.  Track!  At Ohio, Cohen played the nose tackle position despite being a little undersized for that, even by MAC standards.  And yet, he was 2nd-team all-conference his senior year, with 59 tackles (27 solo), 12.5 TFL and 1.5 sacks, starting all twelve games.  Despite being a little taller, and notably thinner, than fellow rookie Andre Fluellen, Cohen is listed on the Lions depth chart as a nose tackle.  He saw time against several teams, setting his career high in tackles against the Colts (4).  I didn't get to see much of him, but from what I can find in scouting reports, he has excellent technique and leverage, helping him make up for his lack of beef.  He seems to excel in initial burst and shedding blocks with quick moves, but doesn' t have the range or athleticism to run around making plays on the edge or in space.  According to the info I can find, he's at his best as a one-gap upfield rusher.  Bottom line: Cohen is a true 4-3 one-gap nose tackle who was born a little too small.  If he could add a lot of bulk he could stay at NT--otherwise, he's another 4-3 UT/3-4 DE project.”

  It looks as though Cohen’s doing everything he can to add the bulk and strength he’ll need to stay at DT; this should be a very interesting position battle, indeed.
  
  
• There was a lot of talk about the QB position coming into the weekend.  Though impressions of how each quarterback “looked” seemed to be heavily informed by the observer’s favored starter for the year, there was consensus on one issue: Matt Stafford is the real deal.  Scout.com’s Nate Caminata, the Detroit News’s Bob Wojnowski, and—astonishingly—the Grand Rapids Press’s Brian VanOchten all agreed: Stafford carried himself with a veteran’s poise and confidence--even motioning for a PI call after one threaded-needle pass fell incomplete!  He appeared completely comfortable with the playbook and the speed of the game, and has eye-popping physical tools.  All three agreed that while Duante Culpepper looked sharp, he might already be the 1b to Matt Stafford’s 1a.  Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press, however, appealed to caution, imploring the Lions to keep Matt Stafford on the pine, regardless of performance.  I enjoy Rosenberg’s work, but I couldn’t disagree more.  If Stafford’s relaxed, comfortable, confident, and executing better than anyone else, what possible reason could there be to hold him back?  Rod Marinelli held Drew Stanton back in 2008—reportedly, until they got off the schneid.  Stanton’s still waiting for his chance.
  
  
• Speaking of DS, his performance on Saturday left a lot to be desired.  Rumor has it that he threw several ducks, looking far behind Stafford and Culpepper in execution, leading forumgoers to call for his head—or at least his roster spot.  However, I’ve been cautioning against having this knee-jerk reaction.  Stanton simply isn’t the kind of guy who’s going to blow you away in practice.  He’s not a shorts-and-T-shirt passer, he’s a gamer who makes it happen when it counts.  On Sunday, they ran through extremely harsh two-minute drills, and what do you know?  Tom Kowalski went out of his way to praise Stanton’s crisp execution.  Good on you, Drew.  Keep fighting--you deserve it.
  
  
• Finally, Martin Mayhew had a nice little session with reporters, going over all the recent roster changes.  Mayhew said that he’s “happy” with the linebackers and running backs; there’s a good mix of talented, impact veterans, and talented, developing youngsters at both spots.  Beyond that, Mayhew said he was pleased with the amount of raw physical talent at quarterback. However, he refused to go any further than that, declining to say he was done working on any other unit.  Clearly, while he didn’t say a single negative thing about anyone on the roster, he sees holes at every other position group—which is good news, because I see them, too!  Mayhew said the Lions’ brass has “areas of concern”, and efforts to address them are ongoing.

Lots of good stuff from this weekend—and more is coming, because the Lions should be wrapping up the morning session as I write this!

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meet the cubs: sammie lee hill

Easily the most interesting prospect the Lions drafted, the selection of Stillman DT Sammie Lee Hill sent Lions fans into a Tweeting frenzy: Who was this guy?  A DT?  Sweet!  But, from a DII school?  Along with everyone else, I started scouring the Internet for information.  He's 270?  290?  300?  320?  330?  I saw all of those weights, and more, listed for him at various websites, in those first few minutes after the selection.  It seemed like there was practically no real information on this cat . . . was he a colossal reach, or a brilliant off-the-radar pickup?

With a little more Google-fu, I started stumbling upon article after article calling the 6'-4", 328-pound Hill one of the best of the small-school prospects.  Website after website saying he's a raw talent quickly moving up the draft boards.  An interview where, in between "yes, sir"s and "no, sir"s, he tells the story of a time when he helped save a man from a burning building.  And in all of them, I saw one word over and over and over: "raw".

Not heavily recruited out of tiny West Blocton, Alabama, Hill went to the best school that offered him a full ride scholarship: tiny Stillman College.  In order to leverage his outstanding size and athleticism, Hill was actually played on the outside, at DE.  This prevented opponents from double-teaming him--or even running the ball toward his side of the field.  As he told the Tuscaloosa News:

"I learned a little bit at Stillman, but I was just bigger than everyone else," he said. "It was just a man amongst boys. They didn't really know how to teach me. I didn't get a lot of teaching. I just went out there and played how I know how to play."

In both his junior and senior years, he was named first-team All-SAIC--and that senior year, led the SAIC in sacks and tackles for loss.  He was invited to the East-West Shrine Game--which could have really spotlighted his ability--but he tweaked a hamstring, preventing him from really showing his stuff.  Still, it got him on the radar.  When he was allowed to work out at Alabama's Pro Day, Lions DL coach Bob Karmelowicz got the chance to personally put him through drills.  This allowed the Lions to avoid bringing him in for a private workout, thereby keeping their interest in him quiet.  When the Lions moved back out of the first pick in the third round, they added the 15th pick in the fourth--the perfect place to grab a risk/reward pick like Hill, who many sites had graded as a third-round selection.

Many fans are already pencilling in Hill as a starter, as if Grady Jackson is the only other defensive tackle on the roster.  The thing to remember is that one word: RAW.  Sammie Hill is a naturally big and athletic man, but that's it.  He's not an NFL defensive tackle; he's not even really a DI defensive tackle.  He's essentially a blank slate in terms of technique; far closer to Ikaika Alama-Francis than B. J. Raji.  While it's true that Hill's a rare physical specimen, "Five-O" is, too.  Whether that raw potential is ever forged into the real impact player Sammie Hill could become depends equally upon Hill and the Lions' defensive staff.

The outlook for now is that Hill will get a chance, like everyone else on the roster, to prove he's got it.  Then, he'll likely serve as Jackson's understudy while Darby and Fluellen rotate at the three-technique spot.  I imagine we'll see more of Hill on a rotational basis late in the year, as the losses start mounting and Jackson starts to wear down.  2010 is where we'll really start to see Hill either command some playing time--or not.

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meet the cubs: the first minicamp

The rookie class of 2009 had their first reps in Lion uniforms (sans the logo on the helmet, which, ever since Parcells made rookies "earn the star" in Dallas, has become the de rigeur move for the entire NFL) over the weekend.  Following Tom Kowalski, Dave Birkett, and Nick Cotsonika's updates over the weekend left us with a few notable impressions:

* Matt Stafford came out throwing--overthrowing, in fact.  Appearing anxious to please, his first few passes were a little wild.  This echoes the scouting reports of his Pro Day performance: he was rocketing balls as hard as he could on that day, too; overthrowing to try to impress.  However, he quickly settled down on Friday, and ultimately earned the praise of his fellow rookies.   As Killer noted, Stafford was (correctly) throwing before the recievers broke, so that when they made their break and turned around to look for the ball, it was already there--and moving fast.  A lot of Stafford's passes bounced off of hands that were either rusty, unused to such velocity, or both.  Former Georgia WR Sean Bailey, at rookie minicamp on a tryout, took a Stafford pass off the facemask on the first day.  Said Penn State WR Derrick Williams: "My impressions were, please don't take my head off today.  I tried to make sure that I had my head around. He's really good. He's going to be a great quarterback.”

* Brandon Pettigrew had arguably the easiest time catching Stafford's fastballs on Friday.  He was then held out of Saturday practices with a tight hamstring.  Honestly, the pass catching is nice--but we knew he had soft hands.  What I'm most anxious to see is his blocking, and that won't happen until the pads go on.

* Louis Delmas appears to be the real deal, flying all over the field, breaking up (and intercepting) passes, laying some hits, talking lots of trash, and (apparently) forming an early rapport with Matt Stafford.  Every reporter there  When the Grandmaster was asked if Delmas stood out, he said,"Yeah, he stood out. I think that's obvious to you, me and the American people."

* According to Killer, Zack Follett and DeAndre Levy appeared to be largely similar to Jordon Dizon, in terms of "size and appearance".  The difference, I would like to point out, is that Dizon neither led his conference in tackles for loss, as Follett did, nor boasted legit 4.5 speed, as Levy does.  Follett was a jaw-dropping playmaker all over the field for Cal, and--according to Schwartz himself--Levy's the "thumper" Schwartz was looking for in the middle.  Until the pads go on, we won't know if Levy'll be able to man the middle, but Levy's already put on a few pounds of muscle, and says he's looking to get up to a lean 240.  If he does that, he'll be the same size as Larry Foote, and much faster than Foote's ever been.  As sure of a tackler?  No.  A veteran leader?  No.  But just as big, and much faster--and, thereby, possibly a better fit for Guntherball?  Yes.

* Derrick Williams dropped a few passes on Friday, and struggled to field punts cleanly on Saturday.  Most reports from minicamps around the NFL noted that their rookies looked quite rusty, so I'm going to give Williams the benefit of the doubt there--though, it should be noted that Williams was drafted not for his hands, but for what he does once the ball is in them.

* Sammie Hill looked as advertised: raw but big.  His weight has now creeped up to "330" in the latest Killer article about him.  By training camp, one wonders if he'll be a "lean 400".  All reports were that Hill looked legit amongst his peers out there, but that he wasn't that well-conditioned; he was the first to be sucking wind on Friday.  None of this should come as a huge surprise, seeing as he was used to effortlessly mauling DII competition.

* I didn't hear much about TCU RB Aaron Brown's performances, though Mayhew did say that he can "help us on returns and help us on third downs" over the weekend.

* I've helped stoke the Lydon Murtha flames a bit, but he was held out of practices with a tweaked hammy.  This is not good news for a player whose biggest knock is his inability to stay on the field.  Here's hoping that NFL trainers and conditioning can keep him loose and limber for training camp and the preseason.

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