Old Mother Hubbard: The Outside Linebackers

The outside linebackers saw some churn this season, with DeAndre Levy sliding over full-time from the his prior inside spot, and newcomer Justin Durant taking most of the snaps on the other side, this group looks much different than it did in 2009. The radar chart looks a lot different, too:

Von Miller was Pro Football Focus’s top-rated 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, and No. 2 isn’t anywhere close. His +50.3 overall grade is simply massive, and nearly double the second-best 4-3 OLB, Jacksonville’s Daryl Smith (+27.3). His monster pass-rush grade (+25.4) dwarfs the second-best there, too (Kamerion Wimbley, +16.4). Smith has the top coverage grade at +8.7, but Miller is #2 at +5.2. When it comes to stopping the run, Miller is again top dog at +22.6.

At the bottom is Quincy Black, which makes me skittish about my assessment of him last season. Black’s –3.1 rush grade is just below the average of –0.5, but it actually makes him the third-worst run-stuffer in the NFL. This speaks to something I’ve talked about before: the vast, vast majority of 4-3 outside linebackers are virtually indistinguishable in terms of production. There are some at the top, one or two at the very top, and a few at the very bottom. Most of the rest are fungible with each other.

Reminder: Advanced NFL Stats does not differentiate between 3-4, 4-3, inside, or outside linebackers. All "ranks" for +EPA and +WPA are amongst all NFL linebackers.

Here's what last year's Outside Linebacker OMH had to say about the two outside linebackers the Lions will carry forward from 2012 into 2012:

DeAndre Levy is exactly where Cliff Avril was at this point last year: third-round pick from a Big Ten school, battling injuries and switching positions. Levy will have to take an Avrilesque step forward in 2011 to prove he’s a long-term solution to the ILB problem—but even if we get more of the same, he’s not a liability on this defense.

Bobby Carpenter showed he can be a creditable player for the Lions. He’ll never be the pass rusher the Lions want from the OLB spot—but with a full offseason in the system he should be able to pull his weight out there.

Let me qualify that last one: I no longer believe the Lions value pass-rushing as a primary tool in their outside linebackers. From Schwartz and Cunningham’s original comments about the design goals of the defense, I understood Julian Peterson to be the prototype: an impact pass-rusher with size and tools, and “good enough” in run-stopping and coverage.

In 2012, it became obvious that the Lions prefer not to blitz if possible, and instead rely on the linebackers as the primary line of defense against the run. Secondly, they need the linebackers to cover well—if the Lions are rushing four and dropping seven, they’re relying on that back seven to be smothering.

Now, in the Shopping for Linebackers OMH, my take on Justin Durant:

The dark horse of the OLB free agent class is Justin Durant, a 6’-1”, 240-pound wrecking ball from the Jaguars—a wrecking ball with a couple of cracks. Just look at the radar chart above: Durant’s stonking +15.5 against the run is second-best in the NFL. His missed tackle rate, one per 8.1 made, is right in the middle of the pack. This suggests, like Bulluck, Durant is slicing through blocking to get to the correct lanes, over and over and over again, showing veteran savvy in just his fourth year. even if his finishing isn’t top-notch.

There are two big concerns about Durant: one is his inability to stay healthy; he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons, plus six games last season. Second, he graded out as poorly against the pass as he did well against the run. His appalling –13.2 on coverage put him fourth-worst in the NFL, and his –1 in pass rush is below-average, too. He’s allowed a slightly-better-than-average 75.6% of his targets to be caught, and his passer rating allowed is dead on NFL average: 98.6, vs. 98.8 . . . but you don’t earn a –13.2 on only 491 snaps without being consistently poor in coverage. Durant has the physical tools to be an impact player, but so far it’s more potential than production.

Justin Durant is not fungible with any Lions outside linebacker I’ve given the OMH treatment. His +7.8 overall PFF grade ranks him 15th among 4-3 outside linebackers, just outside that second tier. This strongly above-average production is the best I’ve seen from the OLB position in the three years I’ve been charting it.

Pro Football Focus grades take a lot of heat, but Durant’s effectiveness in 2011 strongly resembled that of 2010. Durant plays the way he plays, here or in Jacksonville. He again pulled a double-digit run-stuffing grade, at +10.7. That was the ninth-best mark in the NFL, despite playing only 558 snaps.

Durant has struggled to stay healthy, and this season wasn’t quite an exception. He suffered a concussion against Minnesota in Week 3, and wasn’t able to return until the Atlanta game in Week 7. Other than that, though, he was able to make a major impact on running downs from wire to wire.

When it comes to passing downs, though, Durant is less effective—and he wasn’t on the field often in nickel packages. He was just slightly below average on the blitz, graded at –1.1 (-0.5 avg.). Again, though, that’s not a priority in this defense. The OLBs do need to cover, though, and that’s been Durant’s Achilles heel. This season, he was much improved in that arena: his coverage grade was –4.7 (up from –13.2), despite playing 67 more snaps.

Most of that, however, came in a –3.2 performance against Carolina, where screens to Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams on Durant’s side went 4-for-4 for 73 yards. When Durant was asked to simply drop back into coverage, he did it at an NFL average level—vastly improved from 2010 and more than good enough for 2012.

Bottom Line: Justin Durant is an athletic, physical run-stuffer with great strength, speed, and instincts. He was mostly taken off the field on passing downs, and mostly average against the pass when he wasn’t.  Overall, he’s given the Lions the best OLB production in the Schwartz era, and should remain a vital part of the defense for 2012. If Stephen Tulloch is not retained, I’d favor sliding Durant inside over acquiring another MLB.

DeAndre Levy did not take an “Avrilesque” step forward this season. Expected to develop into an athletic, hard-hitting, great-in-coverage-but-can-stop-the-run-too MLB, Levy instead yielded that spot to Stephen Tulloch and slid over to the outside. He once again struggled with consistency, mixing flashes of truly outstanding play with stretches of invisibility or even liability.

Levy played 981 snaps this season, doing most of the nickel-linebacker duty. His overall PFF grade of –6.7 is 38th-best, which is unfortunately also ninth-worst. What pushes Levy so far down the list is that he doesn’t do anything particularly well. His –2.4 blitz grade is not that far below the –0.5 average, his –1.7 coverage grade is actually above the –3.1 average, and his –4.1 run-stuffing grade is well below the +3.7 average.

DeAndre Levy not a blitzer, a run-stuffer, or coverage guy. He’s a true all-around linebacker, and when he’s on he’s fantastic. Crucially, he’s been “on” when the Lions have needed him the most. He had three games where he graded out positively in all three phases of play (and strongly positive overall): On Monday Night against Chicago, the following week against San Francisco, and the regular-season finale at Green Bay. Clearly, he has a knack for coming up big in big spots.

If you need confirmation of this, just check out his eye-popping +WPA: 1.79, by far the highest on the team and 11th-best in the NFL. It was high enough for Levy to make the Advanced NFL Stats NFC All-WPA team. ANS's Brian Burke points out that 0.71 of that 1.79 came on the last second sack-fumble of Joe Webb against Minnesota—where Levy singlehandedly changed a probable loss to a certain win.

Even without that play, though, Levy’s +WPA would be 1.08, still best amongst Lions OLBs and 61st out of  198 NFL linebackers. Levy and Durant’s +EPA (32.0 & 34.7 respectively) were very similar too, meaning Levy got more game-changing impact out of the plays he did make. However, the wide disparity in PFF grades shows Durant was much more solid when he wasn’t making splash plays.

Bottom Line: DeAndre Levy is left in limbo, yet again. He continues to show flashes of the player the Lions hoped he’d become, but he doesn’t appear to be significantly better than he was as a rookie. He has the athleticism, intelligence, and hitting ability to be a complete all-around linebacker capable of playing all three positions well—but as it is, he’s a mediocre-to-poor coverage OLB with a knack for making big plays in big spots. Levy will be a restricted free agent this offseason.

Bobby Carpenter surprised everyone with his strong rotational play in 2011, and though his snap count increased in 2012 his play only got stronger. You’d expect a 6’-2,” 256-pound former first-round pick to be a run-stuffer, or a blitzer, but he’s neither. Carpenter is a rare bird: a 3rd-down linebacker in a two-down body.

Those who were paying attention remember Carpenter having a banner day against the team that drafted (and cut) him: the Dallas Cowboys. Besides this ridiculous pick-six, Carpenter was +1.6 against the run, giving him the strongest-PFF-graded game of his career (+3.6).

Unfortunately, he was just as bad (-3.6) against Atlanta as he was good against Dallas, and with Durant, Levy, and Tulloch all healthy Carpenter didn’t see the field much after that, save for 51 unremarkable snaps against Minnesota. His overall PFF grade was an above-average +2.1, which if he’d played another game or two would have made him the 24th-best 4-3 OLB this season. His 25.0 +EPA and 0.22 +WPA accurately reflect his contributions: he didn’t play much, and when he did he didn’t have major impact (I’d bet most of that 0.22 came on that pick six).

Bottom Line: Bobby Carpenter is a a coverage and special-teams specialist who looks like he should be so much more. The Lions have come to rely on him as a steady fourth ‘backer, but he will be an unrestricted free agent.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions have some decisions to make about their linebackers, and first and foremost is the retention of Stephen Tulloch. If he is not retained, Durant could move inside and the Lions would be shopping for at least one starting OLB.

If Tulloch is retained, Durant should keep his job as a two-down run stuffer, but Levy will need to become much more consistent in pass coverage—assuming, of course, Levy himself is re-signed. My gut tells me he will be; he’s still got too much upside to let walk away.

If Tulloch and Levy are retained, Doug Hogue might be tabbed to fill Bobby Carpenter’s role—or the Lions might re-sign Carpenter, too. Ashlee Palmer should remain a special-teams specialist.

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So what’s up with Ty?

So why haven’t I posted in a couple days? A) I came down with a nasty cold on Monday, and it put me almost completely out of commission Tuesday and Wednesday. 2) My laptop power cord died, and after six hours of uselessly wrestling with it Wednesday night and Thursday morning, I broke down and got a new one.

So. First crucial link: my exclusive interview with Justin Durant, over at Bleacher Report.

Second crucial link: Detroit OnLion’s Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Black Hole.

Thirdly, I’m going on a lyrical rampage tonight. There should be some legit content here and Bleacher Report tomorrow. Many thanks for your patience.

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The Watchtower: Lions at Vikings

My apologies for the fallen Watchtower this week. Between wedding season, and the unexpected opportunity to interview Justin Durant, I ran out of time. Also, I forgot I’d have to re-reasearch the Vikes’ offensive coordinator (the bulk of the time crunch) until it was kind of too late. I’ll make it up to you today with a Bleacher Report liveblog of the game itself, and a Fireside Chat containing the audio of the Durant interview.

I started this blog the day the Lions fired Rod Marinelli. Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier was among the few serious candidates for the vacancy, and I profiled Frazier’s resumé in my first title post series, “To Whom It May Concern.” As it turns out, Frazier had a “difference of opinion” with the Lions’ brass, specifically as regards how quickly the Lions could be turned around:

“[W]e had different perceptions of where to go and the length of time to get there,” Frazier said.  “We were really far apart in that. . . .  I will just say we had a different philosophy and vision for two years from now or a year from now.”

Two years later, here we are: Jim Schwartz’s Lions are taking on Leslie Frazier’s Vikings—and though the contest will be in Minnesota, the Lions are four-point favorites. One wonders what Frazier thinks now—of the length of time it would take to turn the Lions into contenders.

Bill Musgrave vs. Gunther Cunningham

Bill Musgrave seems like a pure Bill Walsh WCO disciple. As a player, he backed up Joe Montana and Steve Young under George Seifert. When Musgrave retired, he immediately went into coaching, joining Joe Bugel’s staff in Oakland. Seifert eventually took over the Carolina Panthers, and brought in Musgrave to coach the quarterbacks. According to Wikipedia, Seifert increasingly leaned on Musgrave for playcalling help, even over OC Gil Haskell. The following offseason, Haskell left and Musgrave was promoted to coordinator.

After four games as OC, though, it’s rumored Seifert dressed down Musgrave in front of the team for his poor playcalling. Musgrave resigned. That year, those Panthers played Gunther Cunningham’s Chiefs, but Musgrave was long since out.

After running Al Groh’s offense at Virginia (and developing Matt Schaub) for a year, Musgrave was hired as Jacksonville’s OC. After two years where the offense finished 25th and 29th in scoring, Musgrave was let go.

Musgrave landed in Washington, serving as quarterbacks coach for one year, then spent five years in Atlanta in the same position—though by the end, he’d been promoted to Assistant Head Coach.

The long and short of it is, Musgrave was a pure Bill Walsh disciple with impressive pedigree, but has run a diverse set of offenses since then. Musgrave has ditched Brad Childress’s complicated Andy Reid-style WCO verbiage, and switched to the Ron Erhardt system, which was used by Ken Whisenhunt in both Pittsburgh and Arizona.

Everywhere I’ve looked, I’ve found that Musgrave’s offense in Minnesota is going to be simpler, more flexible, and better suited to maximize the talents of Adrian Peterson—while making it easier on the Vikings’ young quarterbacks. Ironically, it’s this switch in verbiage and approach might have introduced a learning curve for Donovan McNabb, who was supposed to be a plug-and-play fit in Minnesota.

Long story short, I can't find any game where Bill Musgrave faced off against a Schwartzingham defense as a playcaller, at least not while running anything like this offense.

With no schematic advantages either way, we must project the Vikings’ offense to meet expectations. Though I don’t typically use data from the current season until after the third game, at this point I’m left with no choice. The Vikings are currently scoring 18.5 points per game, after averaging 17.6 points per game in 2010. The Lions are the second-best scoring defense in the league, allowing just 11.5 points per game. I don’t expect the Lions to finish the season allowing so few points per game, but I do expect the Vikings to score fewer than their season average today.

Therefore, I project the Vikings to score between 10 and 13 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Well golly. I'd need some real data to have some factors to mitigate or aggravate, eh? One thing I'd keep an eye on: the Vikings have started hot in each of their first two games, only to fall apart. They’re pretty much playing for their season, at home, in a place where the Lions almost never win. If they jump out to an early lead, momentum may carry them beyond expectations. If not . . . well, not.

Scott Linehan vs. Leslie Frazier

Lin	Fraz	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Fum	Sack
MIN	TBB	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	1st	12.2	4.88	3.79	24	7.78	2	7.52	3-11	2-1
MIN	IND	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	19th	21.9	7.15	4.43	28	8.89	0	5.75	2-1	2-15
MIA	TBB	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	8th	17.1	6.15	3.46	13	6.21	0	3.56	3-2	4-24
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	13	5.07	2	3.79	2-1	2-16
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	10	4.39	0	4.23	2-1	3-20
DET	MIN	14th	22.8	5.99	3.99	16th	21.9	6.36	3.92	10	5.51	2	3.32	1-1	1-15
DET	MIN	14th	22.8	5.99	3.99	16th	21.9	6.36	3.92	20	6.62	1	3.96	1-1	1-8

In Watchtowers past, I’ve found there is a mild systemic advantage for Scott Linehan offenses against Leslie Frazier defenses. However, in each of the last two games, critical red zone turnovers have short-circuited that advantage, and the Lions’ offense has  underperformed expectations. Today, Matthew Stafford will leading the offense, instead of Shaun Hill—and I’ll presume the Lions’ systemic advantages remain intact.

The Lions are scoring 37.5 points per game, but I don’t expect that to last all season. I’ll project the Lions to outperform what I think will be their season averages on the year, scoring 34-37 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Conclusion

This has been an awfully frustrating season for Watchtowers so far, and I appreciate your patience. Today, I project a 34-13 Lions victory. My gut feeling on the relative strengths of these two teams agrees with that projection. However, I feel like this Vikings team is backed against the wall at 0-2, and—though they’re saying all the right things—I have to believe the Lions are believing their own press at this point, too. I worry about the Vikes getting the jump on the Lions and popping the hype balloon.

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Justin Durant is a Lion; Another LB In The Works?

. . . and with that, the Lions secured the services of Justin Durant. When we went shopping for outside linebackers in the Old Mother Hubbard series, this is what we found:

The dark horse of the OLB free agent class is Justin Durant, a 6’-1”, 240-pound wrecking ball from the Jaguars—a wrecking ball with a couple of cracks. Just look at the radar chart above: Durant’s stonking +15.5 against the run is second-best in the NFL. His missed tackle rate, one per 8.1 made, is right in the middle of the pack. This suggests, like Bulluck, Durant is slicing through blocking to get to the correct lanes, over and over and over again, showing veteran savvy in just his fourth year, even if his finishing isn’t top-notch.

There are two big concerns about Durant: one is his inability to stay healthy; he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons, plus six games last season. Second, he graded out as poorly against the pass as he did well against the run. His appalling –13.2 on coverage put him fourth-worst in the NFL, and his –1 in pass rush is below-average, too. He’s allowed a slightly-better-than-average 75.6% of his targets to be caught, and his passer rating allowed is dead on NFL average: 98.6, vs. 98.8 . . . but you don’t earn a –13.2 on only 491 snaps without being consistently poor in coverage. Durant has the physical tools to be an impact player, but so far it’s more potential than production.

Where this leaves us is a little bit uncertain. Mike O’Hara reported that the Lions love Durant’s ability to play inside or outside, and certainly his skill set lends itself to a move inside. However, Durant agreed only to a two-year deal; it seems unlikely that he’ll be tabbed to be the new quarterback of the defense.

Indeed, reports indicate that the Lions have laid a massive offer on Stephen Tulloch’s table, which wasn’t retracted when they landed Durant. If Tulloch eventually lands with the Lions (Dave Birkett of the Freep indicated that’s unlikely), he would doubtlessly take over the middle, and Durant would move outside.

Ideally, I think that's the role the Lions envision for Durant: a big, fast, athletic tackler who can shut down half the run game and rush the passer a bit. A good comparison might be Julian Peterson, circa 2009—only Durant will be entering his prime, not past it. Unfortunately, the Lions still need to add either a coverage OLB and keep Levy in the middle, or add a complete MLB and shift Levy outside. I don’t see Durant contributing to the nickel packages, either—he’ll be a two-down beast on the outside if he can stay healthy.

One of the best Jaguars sources out there, Alfie Crow from Big Cat Country, talked with Khaled Elsayed of Pro Football Focus about the Jags’ free agents. Here are some of the things he said about Durant:

Khaled: Though he's more a two down player, you watch Justin Durant sometimes and think he could be one of the top ten linebackers in the league. Granted, in space he can look like one of the worst ten, but give him a two down role and he can really put himself about.

Alfie:As far as Justin Durant, he looked to me a classic case of missed potential. Physically he's what you ask for in a linebacker, but his instincts left a lot to be desired. He'd run himself out of plays and just couldn't stay healthy. More often than not, availability supercedes ability, especially at the linebacker position. He wound up being just average, and average is easily replaceable at linebacker.

Perhaps Justin Durant is, all things considered, an “average” all-around OLB—but as the PFF data shows, that “average” is a tantalizing mix of brilliant and cringeworthy. It’s true that you can get “unremarkable” linebackers anywhere, but brilliant is tough to come by. If the Lions can deploy the “brilliant” for 50% of the snaps, and take him off the field the other half, they might have gotten an incredible value. This jibes with the general approach the Lions have taken: get players with outstanding tools, put them in roles that maximize their talent.

The situation is changing rapidly; I’ve rewritten this post to reflect the latest news several times. But, if the Lions can add Tulloch (or another 3-down ILB like the Packers’ Nick Barnett), they will have massively upgraded the linebacker corps, and the defense as a whole. If they can’t add another top-notch all-around LB, they’ll have two athletic young players in Durant and Levy who can both play inside or outside. Considering they were starting special-teamers last season, even the worst-case scenario looks pretty good.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl free agency,justin durant,stephen tulloch,deandre levy,linebackers

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Old Mother Hubbard: Shopping for Linebackers, Pt. II

When we first shopped for linebackers, we assumed the Lions would be bringing in a new middle linebacker and shifting Andre Levy outside. The result? Stephen Tulloch was the only 4-3 MLB who looked like a clear upgrade over Levy, though Kirk Morrison looked like an excellent option if the Lions wanted to bring in a pure run-stopper. My suspicion, though, is that the Lions won’t have anyone but Tulloch or Levy in the middle, because they value knowledge of the system and defensive playcalling above pure tackling ability. So, let’s presume the Lions pursue (but don’t land) Stephen Tulloch, and attempt to upgrade the outside linebacker position.

That guy in Carolina blue (or something like it) is James Anderson, a surprise tackling surprise on a terrible Panther defense. Fantasy football players in IDP leagues know all about this guy, as he racked up 100 solo tackles and 12 assists (by Pro Football Focus’s count). Of course, being on a terrible defense, he played about 1,100 snaps to rack those totals up—2nd most of any 4-3 OLB. But if you divide snaps by his total tackles and missed tackles, you see he had a chance to make a tackle in every 9.1 of those 1,110 snaps, a rate placing him in the upper third of 41 qualifying outside linebackers.

Anderson’s grades, not surprisingly, look great. His +14.1 overall slotted him 3rd-best in the NFL; he was surprisingly well-rounded, too, grading well above average in pass rush, pass coverage, run stopping, and penalty drawing. His 6 sacks, 5 QB hits, and 8 QB pressures are eye-popping, especially considering Anderson played all but two games on the strong side of Carolina’s defense. He wasn’t an especially sure tackler, though: if I add his solos to one-half his assists, and divide that number by his missed tackles (9), I get a tackle-to-missed tackle ratio of 11.8—that’s below average, and ranked 31st of 41.

Anderson’s coverage, though graded well, is a bit of a mixed bag. He was targeted 61 times; 4th-most in the NFL, but when you account for his snap count he wasn’t especially picked on. He allowed 80% of those targets to be caught; that’s 23rd-best, just about at the median. His average allowed YpC was 8.0, 9th-best in the NFL and much better than average—though an average 6.0 yards of that was allowed YAC, a more middling number. With one interception and two passes defensed, he doesn’t make impact plays against the pass often—and his 102.9 passer rating allowed is right down the middle of the road, too.

The 6'-2", 235-pound Anderson would fit very well with the Lions. He's a solid, above-average all-around 4-3 OLB with a surprising knack for getting to the quarterback—a trait not easy to come by. But, will he be available? Back before the CBA expired, the Panthers didn’t consider re-signing Anderson a priority because 4-3 SLBs are fairly easy to come by. Now, though, Panthers beat writer Joe Person Tweeted that the Panthers want Anderson. How badly they want him is an open question.

Keith Bulluck, like Stephen Tulloch, is another free-agent-to-be ‘backer with a Schwartzingham pedigree. The 34-year-old Bulluck played a rotational role with the Giants last season, seeing just over 300 snaps. He’d averaged about a thousand over the prior two seasons with the Titans, so this was quite a dropoff. Still the nominal starter at strongside linebacker, though, Bulluck graded out as the ninth-best 4-3 OLB.

Part of the reason for Bulluck’s low snap count: the Giants took Bulluck off the field in nickel situations. Bulluck was coming off of knee surgery, and the Giants didn’t trust him in coverage. Bulluck, though, earned PFF’s 10th-best  coverage grade, a +1.9. He was thrown at just 16 times all year, and Bulluck allowed just 8 receptions; that 50% allowed-reception rate was the best in the NFL. He also, incredibly, picked off two of those 16 targets—leading to a NFL-best 44.8 passer rating allowed. Clearly, coverage was not an issue.

Pass rush, however, was a problem—Bulluck made no impact there (+0.1). Bulluck told the New York Post that lack of explosion was where the recovering knee hurt him the most:

""I kind of know the things I was lacking and the things where normally I was strong and where I wasn't as strong," Bulluck said. "Point of attack and explosion were my two biggest things I was missing. Initial contact was fine. When it came to the drive and follow through, even on tackles, dealing with offensive linemen, those things I had the most trouble because I wasn't used to being in that situation."

Bulluck’s run grades didn’t suffer much: his +5.6 was the 15th-best of the 41 qualifying OLBs. Clearly, his veteran savvy put him in the right place at the right time, and kept blockers off him. However, as he said, he had trouble driving and following through, and it showed up in his tackling stats. He had 18 solos and 3 assists, but 4 missed tackles—a miss for every 4.9 tackles, the fifth-worst ratio by a 4-3 OLB last year. However, 12 of those 18 solos were Stops—tied for fifth-best in the NFL. Most telling? Bulluck turned in an incredible +4.8 individual game grade in Week 3—against Tennesee.

Many times, when athletes are put on the scrap heap, they complain they’re worth more than the team thinks they are—in this case, the data backs Bulluck up. He feels he deserves to be a “bigger part of a team’s puzzle,” and he’s exactly right. He knows Detroit is where he’ll best be primed to make an impact, too: the Lions top his three-team destination shortlist.

Quincy Black is a player I’ve always had a soft spot for. The 6’-2”, 240-pound Black sat on my dynasty league practice squad for a few years, waiting for his chance to crack the Bucs’ defensive lineup. In 2009, he finally got a chance—and while he struggled early, he played very very well down the stretch. 2010 was a coming-out party: Black was the 12th-best PFF-graded OLB in 2010, with a +8.0 overall grade. Black was very well-rounded, too: solidly above-average in pass rush (+1.3, avg. +0.5), well above-average in coverage (+2.9, avg. –2.2), and right on par against the run (+2.8, avg. +2.9).

Unfortunately, Black’s breakout fourth season was cut short by a broken arm. In the eleven games he played, he turned in six strongly positive grades, and only one negative one. Black was a sure tackler, making 12.9 tackles per miss. He was thrown at at a roughly average rate, once every 18.1 snaps. He did an average job allowing completions (79.3%, avg. 78.1%),  well above-average allowing YpC (8.1, avg. 9.5), and above-average in allowed passer rating (90.5, avg. 98.8). Black didn’t make many plays on the ball, with one interception and one pass defensed on his 29 TAs.

On WDFN, Tom Kowalski recently said that Black is a player to keep an eye out for; at 27, matching the physical profile, and coming off of a breakout year, he’d be a perfect long-term addition to the core of this young defense. If Tampa won’t open up the pursestrings to keep their 2007 third-round pick around, well, he’d be money well spent.

The dark horse of the OLB free agent class is Justin Durant, a 6’-1”, 240-pound wrecking ball from the Jaguars—a wrecking ball with a couple of cracks. Just look at the radar chart above: Durant’s stonking +15.5 against the run is second-best in the NFL.  His missed tackle rate, one per 8.1 made, is right in the middle of the pack. This suggests, like Bulluck, Durant is slicing through blocking to get to the correct lanes, over and over and over again, showing veteran savvy in just his fourth year. even if his finishing isn’t top-notch.

There are two big concerns about Durant: one is his inability to stay healthy; he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons, plus six games last season. Second, he graded out as poorly against the pass as he did well against the run. His appalling –13.2 on coverage put him fourth-worst in the NFL, and his –1 in pass rush is below-average, too. He’s allowed a slightly-better-than-average 75.6% of his targets to be caught, and his passer rating allowed is dead on NFL average: 98.6, vs. 98.8 . . . but you don’t earn a –13.2 on only 491 snaps without being consistently poor in coverage. Durant has the physical tools to be an impact player, but so far it’s more potential than production.

Stephen Nicholas was a name I hadn’t heard before embarking on this shopping trip, but he’s not news to the Lions. A 6’-3”, 230-pounder, Nicholas was selected one round after Quincy Black by the Atlanta Falcons. Like Black, Nicholas has been the mostly-starter on the strong side for the past two seasons. Nicholas was PFF’s 15th-best 4-3 outside linebacker in 2010, turning in a +6.9 overall grade. He was excellent against the pass, receiving a +1.2 pass rush mark, and NFL-best +5.1 coverage grade!

His run-stopping grades were merely average, +1.1 (avg. +1.4). However, he missed only 4 tackles all season, one per every 9.6 made; that rate was 5th-best in the NFL. Nicholas, like Black, would step in and start—presumably, for a long time to come. His outstanding coverage skills, and ability to rush, are exactly what the Lions need. The Atlanta-Journal Constitution has linked Nicholas to Detroit several times this offseason, so there’s some fire underneath the smoke I’m blowing here.

Another linebacker I’ve always wished were in Honolulu Blue is Bears free agent Pisa Tinoisamoa. Physically, he was undersized for Lions’ DC Kurt Schottenheimer’s tastes when he came out in 2003. I thought he was the perfect fit for the Lions’ Tampa 2 when his rookie contract was set to expire, but the Rams re-signed him. Finally, he came free, but it was the Lions’ first year under Schwartz and optimistically listed at 6’-1”, 230, he just didn’t fit the profile. Not to mention, he’d struggled with injuries . . .

. . . anyway, turns out I was right about that whole Tampa 2 thing; the Bears snagged him and he’s been very productive (when healthy). Graded at +5.8 overall, +1 in pass rush, and +4.1 against the run, Tinoisamoa plays more physically than you’d expect from a guy of his stature. Unfortunately, his –1.1 coverage grade is above the NFL average(-2.2), but not by as much as you’d hope from a guy of his stature. I suspect the Bears will let him test the waters--and if the Lions can't get anybody else, he’d still be a solid upgrade over Julian Peterson’s recent play.

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Mayhew/Schwartz approach to filling holes has been to either pick up stopgaps or invest in in a long-term solution. The Lions invested in Andre Levy, and I don’t think they’ll kick him outside just because—so a retread thumper like Kirk Morrison doesn’t fit the pattern. No, if they bring in a new middle linebacker, it’ll be someone who’ll play middle linebacker for the next three or four years. While researching, I’ve developed a strong feeling that only Levy and Tulloch—experienced playcallers in the Schwartzingham defense--are legitimate options in the middle for 2011.

However, just as this piece was going to press, Mike O’Hara reported for Fox Sports Detroit that the Lions prefer Justin Durant to Stephen Tulloch. Durant’s “speed and versatility” push him up past Tully in the Lions’ scouting grades. Apparently, they see Durant as a guy who can play inside or outside. Frankly, by these numbers, Durant has no business playing outside! The Lions’ defensive scheme funnels runners inside, and the pass rush from the defensive line will force QBs to hit a lot of hot routes and option passes. This puts extreme pressure on the OLBs to cover slot WRs, TEs, and RBs wheeling out of the flat. If the Lions get Durant, I see him playing inside . . . then again, I’m sure the Lions know their system and their needs better than I do—and they actually watched the tape themselves.

Ultimately, the Lions have a lot of options here. They could easily get Tulloch and Bulluck, or Anderson and Nicholas, or Black and Nicholas, or any number of combinations; few of these players will be bank-breakers. The most important thing to remember, though, is that Levy is going to take a big step forward. He missed almost all of training camp, and all of the preseason, due to injuries—and last year was his first year starting in the middle. Whether he stays inside or moves to the outside, DeAndre Levy is going to make an impact just by having his first full offseason in the defense. With a couple of judicious pickups, the Lions could have not only the best front four, but the best front seven in the NFL.

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