Free Agency: Riverboat Gambling

The NHL free agency period opened up right before the holiday weekend, and a slew of teams eager to spend a surplus of cap money pushed prices through the roof. The Red Wings made a couple of decent Plan B and Plan C signings, along with bringing back every current Wing they really wanted back—but fan hopes of blowing through a $16M war chest and landing an impact defensemen, impact forward, and veteran goalie in the opening 48 hours were dashed. Per Nick Cotsonika, the Red Wings’ attempt to see how the market breaks didn’t break their way; they were forced to bring in players they didn’t like because their targets went elsewhere.

The zaniness surrounding the upcoming NFL free agency period will be an order of magnitude worse. First, the salary cap will likely be higher—and the salary floor will be definitely be much higher. It’s likely that the cap will be less “artificial” and more tied to actual cash outlay. Penny-pinching teams (like the Bucs) will have to go out and burn money just to get up to the minimum, pushing the market price for all free agents through the roof.

The question is, are the Lions going to be spenders, or savers? Martin Mayhew famously will not pay more than he thinks a player is worth—and yet he spent lavishly to secure the services of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson. Are there any players who’ll get the Lions to open up the purse strings, or will they be nickel-and-diming it in the second week?

I can't claim to know the thought processes of Mayhew and company, so I’ll just talk it out. First, we’re past the point of stopgaps. The Lions won’t be going out and getting an Anthony Henry or a Grady Jackson on the cheap—hoping an over-the-hill veteran will be able to step in and start. So, don’t expect any of the “need” spots, like cornerback or linebacker, to be filled with penny-ante guys (who’ll likely be paid handsomely in this market anyway). In the Free Agent Cornerback OMH, I said I thought Lions would more likely target a Chris Carr, an Antonio Cromartie—or even both—before laying out the massive cash required for a Nnamdi Asomugha. 

Thinking about it in terms of market forces, though, Chris Carr could make double what he’s actually worth. If you’re concerned about getting value for your money, would you rather back up the Brinks truck for one of the best players on the planet, or pay 70% of that king’s ransom for a B+ starter you’re particularly fond of? It’s an open question. As the negotiations go down to the wire, and both sides talking about when, not if, an agreement is made, the Lions will have to know their targets and pursue them aggressively from the jump—if a third-tier guy is your Plan A, be on his doorstep at midnight with a bucket of money. Get the guy you want, whether that’s Nnamdi or Carr or Cromartie or Eric Wright or Dre Bly. Whoever it is, the Lions can’t be holding their nose as they offer contracts.

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Are the Lions on Nnamdi’s Short List?

So NFL.com analyst Gil Brandt said the Lions are a serious contender for the services of Nnamdi Asomugha:

“I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they make a big play for Asomugha,” Brandt said. “And I think he would consider the situation in Detroit and playing for Jim Schwartz, who has won the respect of his team. A cornerback’s best friend is a great defensive line, and right now the Lions have a pretty good group of defensive linemen.”

Predictably, the Lions-y corners of the Interwebs (and Twitter) caught fire with the idea that Detroit could make Nnamdi’s shortlist. Now, the last time Brandt spouted off about the Lions, he boldly predicted the Lions’ draft strategy . . . and was spot on:

“Everybody seems to think it’s an offensive lineman,” Brandt said. “I have a little bit of a connection with your head coach there (Jim Schwartz), and I don’t think that they will take an offensive lineman. I personally don’t know who it’s going to be, but I think it’s probably going to be a defensive player.”

Now, I’ve gone on the record on this before. I believe Nnamdi Asomugha would be a perfect fit for the Lions’ defense, and—whether or not Chris Houston sticks around—plays a position where the Lions need to acquire a starter. There’s no doubt that he’d be a perfect complement to the Silver Rush; the fearsome pass rush coming from the defensive line would shorten the time he needs to apply his blanketing coverage—and his coverage would allow the rush more time to strike home. The pick package the Lions offered to Arizona for the chance to draft Patrick Peterson shows how much they’d love to add a big, fast, physical cover corner—so could it happen?

It's time to say hi to our long lost friend, Cap Space. Remember Cap Space? He always used to show up whenever we’d talk football, and now it’s time to get reacquainted with him. Nnamdi Asomugha is going to want to blow out the curve in salary—and while the Fords haven’t shied away from writing checks their front office men ask them to write, you’re talking about an enormous investment in a 30-year-old player at a position that Schwartz hasn’t traditionally valued.

The identity of this team is a high-powered offense paired with a world-devouring defensive line; that’s where the Lions have consistently spent their money and picks over the past three seasons. They may well be about to let Chris Houston, a productive young veteran they acquired for peanuts, walk out the door, if he asks for more than they think he’s worth. Would they really break the bank for 30-year-old Nnamdi, even if he’s one of the best corners in the world? I don’t think so.

Now. We all thought we had the Lions’ draft plans figured out, and they completely threw us a curveball. It could well be that Gunther Cunningham shows up on Nnamdi’s doorstep at midnight with a basket of summer sausage or something, who knows. For now though, look for the Lions to set their sights a little lower. Honestly, I think I’d rather have Chris Houston and Antonio Cromartie than Nnamdi Asomugha and, likely, Nate Vasher.

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Antonio Cromartie Being Traded to the Lions?

Last August, Gunther Cunningham was “flat pissed off” about Lions defenders wimping out on making tackles:

We had four guys on that play last week turn it down. Not miss it, turn it down, in my opinion.  You can coach and teach and all that, but it's about building an attitude. It's about an attitude that we're going to build on this defense, or they're going to have to deal with me, and I don't think they want to do that.

So it surprised me a little, and Tom Kowalski too, to hear that the Lions are at the forefront of the Antonio Cromartie derby.  Why would that be surprising?

Well, there's this: a brilliant, and hilarious, mock Facebook page that savagely lays bare Cromartie’s lack of tackling effort in the AFC playoffs.  How could Gunther, a lover of old-school, hard-nosed defense, possibly be okay with trading for a corner whose clean-jersey play is the stuff of Internet legend?

Here’s a scouting report on Cro, at the time of his draft:

We are all familiar with the fact from a personal standpoint that I like big corners. This young man definitely fits the criteria. He’s a unique physical talent. We looked at the opportunity at bringing a guy in here that is going to give us playmaking ability in the secondary. When you watch the tape on him you see his ball skills and it’s very impressive . . .

When you look at the skills and you see the body of work he was involved with you feel very confident and comfortable that the only think that it comes down to is the medical. The medical came back absolutely fine. I’m confident it wasn’t a difficult choice to make. It was very evident that he was the one guy there that was clearly our choice.

Who said that?  The Chargers’ then-Head Coach, Marty Schottenheimer.  Remember when Gunther built those legendarily nasty Chiefs defenses in the mid-to-late 90s?  Yeah, that was with Marty at the helm.  Marty is not only a longtime friend and colleague of Gunther’s, they share a passion for old-school football.

In 1997, when Marty and Gunther’s Chiefs had the #1 defense in the NFL, they did it with corners James Hasty and Dale Carter.  Hasty was a little smaller, and a little feistier, but take a look at Carter: 6’-1”, 194 pounds, didn’t put up great tackling stats (when they managed to even keep track of his tackles) . . . but picked off 21 passes in his first seven years in the NFL.

These numbers look very, very much like Antonio Cromartie’s career to this point, and I’d think Cunningham would consider Cromartie & Buchanon, with King competing with James and/or a rookie for the nickel spot, a big upgrade over Buchanon, James, and a street free agent. Remember, it wasn’t tackling that Lions corners Philip Buchanon, Anthony Henry, and Will James couldn’t do last season—it was covering opposing wide receivers.

The other thing you have to consider is the price.  Tom Kowalski and Michael Schottey are both saying that Cro might be had for as little as a fifth-round pick—and that’s simply a must-do deal.  There’s no way that the Lions could add a corner of Cromartie’s physical skills in the fifth round—and, as I’ve said before, cornerback is a spot where rookies almost never provide drop-in upgrades; the learning curve is very steep.

This trade would add a talented veteran at a position of extreme need for a minimal price.  Given Martin Mayhew’s penchant for pulling these types of deals off, is it really that surprising?  All we can do now is wait for the beginning of the league year (Friday), when Cro’s salary becomes tradable, and hope.

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