Old Mother Hubbard: The Outside Linebackers

The outside linebackers saw some churn this season, with DeAndre Levy sliding over full-time from the his prior inside spot, and newcomer Justin Durant taking most of the snaps on the other side, this group looks much different than it did in 2009. The radar chart looks a lot different, too:

Von Miller was Pro Football Focus’s top-rated 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, and No. 2 isn’t anywhere close. His +50.3 overall grade is simply massive, and nearly double the second-best 4-3 OLB, Jacksonville’s Daryl Smith (+27.3). His monster pass-rush grade (+25.4) dwarfs the second-best there, too (Kamerion Wimbley, +16.4). Smith has the top coverage grade at +8.7, but Miller is #2 at +5.2. When it comes to stopping the run, Miller is again top dog at +22.6.

At the bottom is Quincy Black, which makes me skittish about my assessment of him last season. Black’s –3.1 rush grade is just below the average of –0.5, but it actually makes him the third-worst run-stuffer in the NFL. This speaks to something I’ve talked about before: the vast, vast majority of 4-3 outside linebackers are virtually indistinguishable in terms of production. There are some at the top, one or two at the very top, and a few at the very bottom. Most of the rest are fungible with each other.

Reminder: Advanced NFL Stats does not differentiate between 3-4, 4-3, inside, or outside linebackers. All "ranks" for +EPA and +WPA are amongst all NFL linebackers.

Here's what last year's Outside Linebacker OMH had to say about the two outside linebackers the Lions will carry forward from 2012 into 2012:

DeAndre Levy is exactly where Cliff Avril was at this point last year: third-round pick from a Big Ten school, battling injuries and switching positions. Levy will have to take an Avrilesque step forward in 2011 to prove he’s a long-term solution to the ILB problem—but even if we get more of the same, he’s not a liability on this defense.

Bobby Carpenter showed he can be a creditable player for the Lions. He’ll never be the pass rusher the Lions want from the OLB spot—but with a full offseason in the system he should be able to pull his weight out there.

Let me qualify that last one: I no longer believe the Lions value pass-rushing as a primary tool in their outside linebackers. From Schwartz and Cunningham’s original comments about the design goals of the defense, I understood Julian Peterson to be the prototype: an impact pass-rusher with size and tools, and “good enough” in run-stopping and coverage.

In 2012, it became obvious that the Lions prefer not to blitz if possible, and instead rely on the linebackers as the primary line of defense against the run. Secondly, they need the linebackers to cover well—if the Lions are rushing four and dropping seven, they’re relying on that back seven to be smothering.

Now, in the Shopping for Linebackers OMH, my take on Justin Durant:

The dark horse of the OLB free agent class is Justin Durant, a 6’-1”, 240-pound wrecking ball from the Jaguars—a wrecking ball with a couple of cracks. Just look at the radar chart above: Durant’s stonking +15.5 against the run is second-best in the NFL. His missed tackle rate, one per 8.1 made, is right in the middle of the pack. This suggests, like Bulluck, Durant is slicing through blocking to get to the correct lanes, over and over and over again, showing veteran savvy in just his fourth year. even if his finishing isn’t top-notch.

There are two big concerns about Durant: one is his inability to stay healthy; he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons, plus six games last season. Second, he graded out as poorly against the pass as he did well against the run. His appalling –13.2 on coverage put him fourth-worst in the NFL, and his –1 in pass rush is below-average, too. He’s allowed a slightly-better-than-average 75.6% of his targets to be caught, and his passer rating allowed is dead on NFL average: 98.6, vs. 98.8 . . . but you don’t earn a –13.2 on only 491 snaps without being consistently poor in coverage. Durant has the physical tools to be an impact player, but so far it’s more potential than production.

Justin Durant is not fungible with any Lions outside linebacker I’ve given the OMH treatment. His +7.8 overall PFF grade ranks him 15th among 4-3 outside linebackers, just outside that second tier. This strongly above-average production is the best I’ve seen from the OLB position in the three years I’ve been charting it.

Pro Football Focus grades take a lot of heat, but Durant’s effectiveness in 2011 strongly resembled that of 2010. Durant plays the way he plays, here or in Jacksonville. He again pulled a double-digit run-stuffing grade, at +10.7. That was the ninth-best mark in the NFL, despite playing only 558 snaps.

Durant has struggled to stay healthy, and this season wasn’t quite an exception. He suffered a concussion against Minnesota in Week 3, and wasn’t able to return until the Atlanta game in Week 7. Other than that, though, he was able to make a major impact on running downs from wire to wire.

When it comes to passing downs, though, Durant is less effective—and he wasn’t on the field often in nickel packages. He was just slightly below average on the blitz, graded at –1.1 (-0.5 avg.). Again, though, that’s not a priority in this defense. The OLBs do need to cover, though, and that’s been Durant’s Achilles heel. This season, he was much improved in that arena: his coverage grade was –4.7 (up from –13.2), despite playing 67 more snaps.

Most of that, however, came in a –3.2 performance against Carolina, where screens to Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams on Durant’s side went 4-for-4 for 73 yards. When Durant was asked to simply drop back into coverage, he did it at an NFL average level—vastly improved from 2010 and more than good enough for 2012.

Bottom Line: Justin Durant is an athletic, physical run-stuffer with great strength, speed, and instincts. He was mostly taken off the field on passing downs, and mostly average against the pass when he wasn’t.  Overall, he’s given the Lions the best OLB production in the Schwartz era, and should remain a vital part of the defense for 2012. If Stephen Tulloch is not retained, I’d favor sliding Durant inside over acquiring another MLB.

DeAndre Levy did not take an “Avrilesque” step forward this season. Expected to develop into an athletic, hard-hitting, great-in-coverage-but-can-stop-the-run-too MLB, Levy instead yielded that spot to Stephen Tulloch and slid over to the outside. He once again struggled with consistency, mixing flashes of truly outstanding play with stretches of invisibility or even liability.

Levy played 981 snaps this season, doing most of the nickel-linebacker duty. His overall PFF grade of –6.7 is 38th-best, which is unfortunately also ninth-worst. What pushes Levy so far down the list is that he doesn’t do anything particularly well. His –2.4 blitz grade is not that far below the –0.5 average, his –1.7 coverage grade is actually above the –3.1 average, and his –4.1 run-stuffing grade is well below the +3.7 average.

DeAndre Levy not a blitzer, a run-stuffer, or coverage guy. He’s a true all-around linebacker, and when he’s on he’s fantastic. Crucially, he’s been “on” when the Lions have needed him the most. He had three games where he graded out positively in all three phases of play (and strongly positive overall): On Monday Night against Chicago, the following week against San Francisco, and the regular-season finale at Green Bay. Clearly, he has a knack for coming up big in big spots.

If you need confirmation of this, just check out his eye-popping +WPA: 1.79, by far the highest on the team and 11th-best in the NFL. It was high enough for Levy to make the Advanced NFL Stats NFC All-WPA team. ANS's Brian Burke points out that 0.71 of that 1.79 came on the last second sack-fumble of Joe Webb against Minnesota—where Levy singlehandedly changed a probable loss to a certain win.

Even without that play, though, Levy’s +WPA would be 1.08, still best amongst Lions OLBs and 61st out of  198 NFL linebackers. Levy and Durant’s +EPA (32.0 & 34.7 respectively) were very similar too, meaning Levy got more game-changing impact out of the plays he did make. However, the wide disparity in PFF grades shows Durant was much more solid when he wasn’t making splash plays.

Bottom Line: DeAndre Levy is left in limbo, yet again. He continues to show flashes of the player the Lions hoped he’d become, but he doesn’t appear to be significantly better than he was as a rookie. He has the athleticism, intelligence, and hitting ability to be a complete all-around linebacker capable of playing all three positions well—but as it is, he’s a mediocre-to-poor coverage OLB with a knack for making big plays in big spots. Levy will be a restricted free agent this offseason.

Bobby Carpenter surprised everyone with his strong rotational play in 2011, and though his snap count increased in 2012 his play only got stronger. You’d expect a 6’-2,” 256-pound former first-round pick to be a run-stuffer, or a blitzer, but he’s neither. Carpenter is a rare bird: a 3rd-down linebacker in a two-down body.

Those who were paying attention remember Carpenter having a banner day against the team that drafted (and cut) him: the Dallas Cowboys. Besides this ridiculous pick-six, Carpenter was +1.6 against the run, giving him the strongest-PFF-graded game of his career (+3.6).

Unfortunately, he was just as bad (-3.6) against Atlanta as he was good against Dallas, and with Durant, Levy, and Tulloch all healthy Carpenter didn’t see the field much after that, save for 51 unremarkable snaps against Minnesota. His overall PFF grade was an above-average +2.1, which if he’d played another game or two would have made him the 24th-best 4-3 OLB this season. His 25.0 +EPA and 0.22 +WPA accurately reflect his contributions: he didn’t play much, and when he did he didn’t have major impact (I’d bet most of that 0.22 came on that pick six).

Bottom Line: Bobby Carpenter is a a coverage and special-teams specialist who looks like he should be so much more. The Lions have come to rely on him as a steady fourth ‘backer, but he will be an unrestricted free agent.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions have some decisions to make about their linebackers, and first and foremost is the retention of Stephen Tulloch. If he is not retained, Durant could move inside and the Lions would be shopping for at least one starting OLB.

If Tulloch is retained, Durant should keep his job as a two-down run stuffer, but Levy will need to become much more consistent in pass coverage—assuming, of course, Levy himself is re-signed. My gut tells me he will be; he’s still got too much upside to let walk away.

If Tulloch and Levy are retained, Doug Hogue might be tabbed to fill Bobby Carpenter’s role—or the Lions might re-sign Carpenter, too. Ashlee Palmer should remain a special-teams specialist.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Outside Linebackers

If you're joining our roster review already in progress, here are the Old Mother Hubbard breakdowns for:

• the Defensive Tackles
• the Defensive Ends
• the Inside Linebackers

Before we delve into the next three positions, let me take a little time to address an email I received about the DE breakdown. Scott D. wrote:

You mentioned while you were watching the Jets game live, that you, in essence, personally discounted the PFF rankings for how KVB played in that particular game because of what ends up being, in your own terms, the "eyeball factor". Yet in every other aspect of the OMH series thus far, you're putting a great deal of credit in the PFF rankings.

It’s important to understand what the PFF data is, and what it isn’t. The PFF player grades are what I’ve been showing on the radar charts. They’re the PFF staff’s opinion on how well a player carries out his assignment. Each player is graded on every snap they play, and the final grades consist of those per-play grades aggregated and normalized. Every-down consistency scores much better than occasional excellence, and penalties weigh heavily on the final grade. On the whole, they present a good benchmark for overall performance, relative to an average NFL starter.

PFF also takes the time to go back and tally sacks, tackles, QB pressures, QB hits, missed tackles, and other stats. These aren’t subjective performance grades, they’re straight tallies of actual results—and they’re far more accurate than “offical” tackle and sack numbers, which are done on the fly, in real time, by team scorers with varying personal standards.

The KVB “eyeball test” you’re talking about?  Here’s what I said:

I had really good seats to the Jets game, and seeing KVB in action live was something else. He never missed an opportunity—before, during, or after the snap—to remind the Jets that he was there. That he was fighting. That they needed to keep their head on a swivel. That they needed to watch their ass. Vanden Bosch and the Lions out-Jetted the Jets on that day, mostly thanks to KVB and his leadership. PFF graded him at a –2.1 on the day, but I know he had a positive impact.

I was insinuating that KVB was playing . . . well, not dirty, but . . . okay, kinda dirty. He played to, and through, and also a little bit after the whistle. Not trying to injure—just not letting up, getting in a little extra on every play. He was very physical, very intense, and set the tone for a Lions defense that came to kick the butt-kickers’ butts. That doesn’t mean KVB was unblockable off the edge, or impossible to run on, or anything like that. In the PFF grader’s opinion, KVB executed his play assignments at a below-average level. But, I know his leadership made the whole defense better on that day.

Again: the news is not good. The dark gray line is Kamerion Wimbley, the top-graded 4-3 OLB. The thick black line is the NFL average. The goldish line is Scott Shanle, the backmarker. This means the Saints had both the worst ILB and the worst OLB . . .

Unfortunately, things aren’t so hot for the Lions, either. Julian Peterson was the only Lions OLB to meet PFF’s 25% snap-count threshold; he was also the Lions’ worst-graded OLB. He, like all the Lions OLBs, was right at the NFL average for pass rush, but strongly negative in coverage (-6.6). All that is moot, however, because Peterson was released.

Bobby Carpenter was a deft mid-October signing by the Lions. Apparently the Lions had been high on him for a while; Tom Kowalski reported that Martin Mayhew asked for Carpenter in the Roy Williams trade, Mayhew’s first roster move as Lions GM. The Cowboys ultimately swapped their disappointing first-rounder for the Rams’, OT Alex Barron. The 6’-2”, 245-pound Carpenter was cut by the Rams during training camp, picked up by Miami, and then cut midseason after he screwed up badly on special teams.

In Killer's article on Carpenter's signing, he points out that Carpenter is solid against the run, and in dropping back to cover; the PFF grades partially back that up. Carpenter was right at NFL averages for pass rush, but a bit above average in coverage. In fact, Carpenter’s coverage grade was the best single grade of any returning Lions OLB. Unfortunately, Carpenter was about as far below average against the run as he was above average in coverage, so his final grade is just a smidge below average. Keep in mind, though, that’s for 4-3 OLB who played in at least 25% of their teams’ snaps (which Carpenter did not).

Bottom Line: In limited reps, Carpenter showed he can be a creditable player for the Lions. He’ll never be the pass rusher the Lions want from the OLB spot—but with a full offseason in the system he should be able to pull his weight out there.

Ashlee Palmer was the Typhoid Mary of “One Man’s Trash Syndrome,” a good young player let go because another team was switching schemes. Palmer, 6’-1”, 236 pounds, was a UDFA rookie for the Bills in 2009. He made an impact as a special teams standout, and looked great in backup duty. But, out with the old—Dick Jauron’s 4-3—and in with the new—Jim Haslett’s 3-4—and the Lions got a great value pickup.

Palmer got 240 snaps at outside linebacker, roughly split between the right and left. He also had about a hundred snaps in the middle, so he never had a chance to get comfortable anywhere.  He graded out more or less across-the-board average for the first five weeks, then had a really rough streak in weeks 6, 8, 9, and 11. That’s alarming, since he got many of his snaps in that stretch. He finished with another long streak of averageness in lighter action, though, and put an exclamation point on the season with a +3.1 day against Miami where he played 50% of snaps.

On the whole, Palmer was an average rusher, slightly above average in coverage, and below average against the run. He was slightly less effective in coverage than Carpenter, and a full tick worse in run support.

Bottom Line: Palmer is a young, tough, versatile player forced to play all three LB positions as a 2nd-year UDFA, and produced at a slightly-below-average level. He’ll be a valuable rotation player, and possibly an okay starter with a full offseason at OLB. Still, he doesn’t have impact tools or impact upside.

What a wild ride it’s been for the Pain Train. Zack Follett, member of the Lions Fan Favorite Hall of Fame Class of 2009, entered the season as a starting outside linebacker. After making headlines over the offseason with his Tweeting and vlogging, Follett saw in about 150 snaps at the left linebacker spot, before a scary helmet-to-helmet hit put him out for the season.

Follett was sort of the yang to Ashlee Palmer’s yin. Standing at a nearly identical 6’-2”, 236, Follett was graded slightly below Palmer in pass rush (!), significantly below Palmer in coverage, but significantly above in run support. Follett, to my eyes, is more naturally athletic and has a higher upside, but appeared to be “swimming” out there; thinking instead of reacting. Follett was often a half-step behind, a half-instant too slow in making plays, because he didn’t recognize the need to act quickly enough. However, the recognition did come and the ability is there.

It’s worth pointing out that Follett got heavy reps against the Lions’ stiffest competition, in the front half of the season. Further, defenses were picking on Follett’s coverage more: opponents threw at Follett every 16.45 snaps, as opposed to 21.8 for Palmer.

As a sidebar, they threw at Landon Johnson every 11.4 snaps, which would have been the third-most-frequent in the NFL if Johnson had played more snaps at OLB.

Bottom Line: Zack Follett is still a very young player who showed a lot more pass rush ability at Cal than he’s shown so far in the NFL. With another full offseason to get the defense down pat, he should be able to do less thinking and more reacting. If he’s medically okay to play, he deserves to be in the mix with Palmer and Carpenter, especially being stronger against the run than either.

Right now, the Lions have three very good rotational players who have an interesting mix of youth, experience, and upside. They each bring a slightly different approach to the game, and each have a slightly different skill set. However, my understanding of the Lions defense was that they wanted two (in-his-prime) Julian Petersons at OLB; two big, fast pass rushers who are athletic enough to not be a liability in coverage. Unless Follett puts it together, they don’t have anyone who can rush the passer from the OLB spot.

An interesting observation: note that the best overall 4-3 OLB, Kam Wimbley, was only graded at +23.7, and he had a sizable lead over Nos. 2 & 3: +17.7, and +14.1, respectively. Since the top DT and DE each graded at about +45 , and the top ILB was about +35, this suggests that 4-3 OLBs just don’t play a big of a role in the success of the defense. As long as they aren’t total liabilities against the pass, and don’t miss a slew of tackles, you can get away with a pedestrian OLB . . . or two. Perhaps a major investment at OLB is unwise. Indeed, Mayhew said he’s perfectly comfortable with Palmer and Carpenter as starters in 2011.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions, undeniably, lack impact players at OLB. The 2010 performances of Carpenter, Palmer, and Follett suggest the Lions could “get away with” drafting a developmental OLB, letting all four compete for snaps at LB, and featuring all four in special teams units. However, if the Lions are looking for impact pass rushers in these spots going forward, they’ll need to draft one and acquire another.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,team needs,2011 offseason,2011 free agency,2011 nfl draft,julian peterson,zack follett,ashlee palmer,bobby carpenter

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Inside Linebackers

The news is not good. The thick black line indicates the NFL average. The bright yellow line indicates the best-PFF-graded ILB in the NFL, Lawrence Timmons. The bronze-ish line shows the worst-PFF-graded ILB in the NFL, Jonathan Vilma. That every single one of the Lions’ ILB are between the black line and bronze line is not good. Let’s start with the starter, DeAndre Levy.

DeAndre had an inauspicious start to the season: first a back injury sidelined Levy for much of training camp, then a groin injury sidelined him for most of the preseason, then an ankle injury sidelined him until Halloween. Incredibly, Levy still logged 749 snaps, just under the league average for an inside linebacker. While he was out there, he was inconsistent, but slightly positive. He had strong games against Buffalo, Green Bay, and Miami, and weak ones against New England and Miami. His worst grade of the season, though, was his only pre-bye appearance: Week 3, at Minnesota (-2.7).

This was both his first game back from the groin, and when he suffered the ankle injury—so I’m willing to give him a pass for that game, and for much of the season. But Levy’s shortcomings in run support are really holding his grade back. PFF charts tackles and assists, as well as missed tackles—their tackle data is flatly much better than the “official” tackles passed out by team scorers. I created my own little metric by adding PFF tackles to PFF assists, and dividing by PFF missed tackles. Levy was tied (with Stewart Bradley) for last in the NFL; both tallied just 4.9 total tackles for each one they missed. The league average? 12.83.

Of course, Levy was a third-round pick in 2009, an outside linebacker with a ton of upside. That upside lay in his hitting, his athleticism, and his theoretical ability to cover (though he was not an outstanding coverage OLB in college). PFF tracks opponent passer rating against each defender, and Levy was 13th-best in the NFL with this, at 86.1 (avg 98.0). He was also 15th-best in individual YpC against with 8.9 (avg 10.0). The longest reception Levy allowed was just 20 yards long, tied for fourth-best in the NFL (avg. 32.7). His actual coverage grade was slightly below average, indicating inconsistency. Still, the metrics show that he wasn’t thrown at very often, and when he was not much damage was done.

This training camp was Levy’s first as a starter, and first as a pure middle linebacker. It was vitally important that he go through camp and learn his assignments cold. He couldn’t. It was crucial that he get a lot of snaps in preseason, to get his timing down. He didn’t. He didn’t see regular action until Week 8—and when he did, he almost never took a breather. Per PFF, he missed only two defensive snaps from Week 8 on; an incredible workload. By my count, he’d have played the second-most snaps in the NFL if he were healthy all season long.

Bottom Line: Levy is exactly where Cliff Avril was at this point last year: third-round pick from a Big Ten school, battling injuries and switching positions. Levy will have to take an Avrilesque step forward in 2011 to prove he’s a long-term solution to the ILB problem—but even if we get more of the same, he’s not a liability on this defense.

No other ILBs got the requisite 25% of snaps, but Landon Johnson came close. Average in pass rush, a little below average in coverage, and well below average in run support, this career OLB/special teams ace was a step down from Levy, but not as big of one as you’d expect. He was better than awful, but still well below average.

Bottom Line: Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent, and has no future playing ILB for the Lions. If he’s brought back, it will be as a special teamer—and there’ll be lots of competition there.

Several other players got snaps for the Lions at ILB; Spencer Havner and Ashlee Palmer foremost amongst them. But, I’ll either grade those players as OLBs, or not at all. For 2011 and the forseeable future, DeAndre Levy is the only credible inside linebacker the Lions have.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions are rolling with DeAndre Levy at starter, who’s proven he can play at at least a decent level. He has flashed the potential to get much better, though, and the Lions will hope he does. The Lions could use a credible veteran backup here, in lieu of repurposing OLBs or special teams specialists.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,deandre levy,team needs,nfl draft,nfl free agency

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One Man's Trash: Ashlee Palmer to the Lions

Yesterday, the Lions acquired former Bills OLB Ashlee Palmer.  Palmer, a 2009 undrafted free agent out of Ole Miss, played 14 games for the Bills last season, including two starts.  The Lions’ interest was probably piqued in fourth preseason game, when Palmer started against them, and had five solo tackles, an assist, and a pass defensed. 

That's quite the season for an undrafted rookie.  Check out his performance against the Jets in week 6: he got the start, six solo tackles (none on special teams, all as an LB), and a pass defensed.  So what would cause them to let such a promising young player go?  The Bills’ new head coach, Chan Gailey, wants to switch to a 3-4.  Quoth Gailey:

There’s two things involved here. One, 3-4 personnel allows you when you start there to create more problems for the offense.  That’s the No. 1 thing. You are creating more problems. I know the problems it gives us offensively to have to prepare for that. You get to some nickel situations and now it’s back to 4-2 with the nickel guy in there. Now you’ve got to prepare for that.

A 3-4 defense doesn’t cause an offense a lot of problems—a good 3-4 defense does.  A bad 3-4 defense sucks just as much as a bad 4-3 defense does—likewise, a good 4-3 defense causes just as many problems for an offense as a good 3-4 does.  The schemes have different inherent strengths, but what matters most is the talent and execution.

The Bills's 4-3 has been somewhere between pretty good and really good over the past decade or so; their problem has been an inconsistent running game and terrible quarterback play.  Dismantling the only part of a team that was working makes no sense to me—but I’m glad Chan Gailey decided to do it, because their loss is our gain.

Gunther Cunningham caused a bit of a flap recently, when he hinted that Kansas City’s switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 was forcing them let good young players go—players he knew well, like Turk McBride.  Jason Hunter’s another young Lions role player, and he was ousted in Green Bay when they switched alignments.

It’s true that Ashlee Palmer isn’t going to step in and outperform Ernie Sims—he may not even make the roster.  But this is a kid who stepped in and made himself valuable in a good defense, with no expectations whatsoever.  If DeAndre Levy really is going to start in the middle this year, then a committed, driven young player like that will doubtlessly be a factor in relief of Sims.

It’s good to see Martin Mayhew using and abusing that waiver priority again.  Lions’ll continue to have dibs on almost everyone when good young players are trashed due to a scheme change—here’s hoping that sifting through them all uncovers some treasures.

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