Free Agency: Riverboat Gambling

The NHL free agency period opened up right before the holiday weekend, and a slew of teams eager to spend a surplus of cap money pushed prices through the roof. The Red Wings made a couple of decent Plan B and Plan C signings, along with bringing back every current Wing they really wanted back—but fan hopes of blowing through a $16M war chest and landing an impact defensemen, impact forward, and veteran goalie in the opening 48 hours were dashed. Per Nick Cotsonika, the Red Wings’ attempt to see how the market breaks didn’t break their way; they were forced to bring in players they didn’t like because their targets went elsewhere.

The zaniness surrounding the upcoming NFL free agency period will be an order of magnitude worse. First, the salary cap will likely be higher—and the salary floor will be definitely be much higher. It’s likely that the cap will be less “artificial” and more tied to actual cash outlay. Penny-pinching teams (like the Bucs) will have to go out and burn money just to get up to the minimum, pushing the market price for all free agents through the roof.

The question is, are the Lions going to be spenders, or savers? Martin Mayhew famously will not pay more than he thinks a player is worth—and yet he spent lavishly to secure the services of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson. Are there any players who’ll get the Lions to open up the purse strings, or will they be nickel-and-diming it in the second week?

I can't claim to know the thought processes of Mayhew and company, so I’ll just talk it out. First, we’re past the point of stopgaps. The Lions won’t be going out and getting an Anthony Henry or a Grady Jackson on the cheap—hoping an over-the-hill veteran will be able to step in and start. So, don’t expect any of the “need” spots, like cornerback or linebacker, to be filled with penny-ante guys (who’ll likely be paid handsomely in this market anyway). In the Free Agent Cornerback OMH, I said I thought Lions would more likely target a Chris Carr, an Antonio Cromartie—or even both—before laying out the massive cash required for a Nnamdi Asomugha. 

Thinking about it in terms of market forces, though, Chris Carr could make double what he’s actually worth. If you’re concerned about getting value for your money, would you rather back up the Brinks truck for one of the best players on the planet, or pay 70% of that king’s ransom for a B+ starter you’re particularly fond of? It’s an open question. As the negotiations go down to the wire, and both sides talking about when, not if, an agreement is made, the Lions will have to know their targets and pursue them aggressively from the jump—if a third-tier guy is your Plan A, be on his doorstep at midnight with a bucket of money. Get the guy you want, whether that’s Nnamdi or Carr or Cromartie or Eric Wright or Dre Bly. Whoever it is, the Lions can’t be holding their nose as they offer contracts.

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Matthew Stafford’s Day(s) Off

As many outlets have reported, the Lions have been docked two days’ worth of OTA practices for CBA violations.  Specifically, the Lions’ OTA practices exceeded allowed limits for tempo and contact.  This might sound familiar—indeed, the Lions lost two OTA days due to fiesty practices back in 2006, as well. Guessing which player had filed the NFLPA grievance turned into a favorite parlor game for Lions fans, bloggers, and newsmedia.

Ultimately, ProFootballTalk.com reported that Marcus Bell had blown the whistle on Rod Marinelli and the Lions coaches.*  At the time, most observers belonged to one of two camps:

• “If there’s dissension in the ranks, Marinelli’s ‘Pound the Rock’ message is already falling on deaf ears.  ”
• “GOOD!  Those lazy goldbrickers need to be whipped into shape!  Let ‘em whine, the wheat will be separated from the chaff.”

Of course, Marinelli was trying to make an impact.  He was touting himself as a hard worker, a motivator who demanded his player be motivated.  His mission was to cut out the deadwood and have 53 rowers all swinging their invisible pickaxes in harmony, or something.  That all 53 weren’t buying in right off the bat was troubling; wasn’t Rod supposed to be able to get a cat to want to run through a brick wall?  It seemed an ill omen for building a truly cohesive unit.

So, what are we to make of this?  Jim Schwartz, the Grandmaster?  The one whose intellectual approach and meticulous preparation made his name legend amongst the football dorks of the Internet?  How could he be so careless as to violate the rules, even as the Ravens, Raiders, and Jaguars had already been caught?  Indeed, Paula Pasche of the Oakland Press just finished blogging about how Schwartz is too smart, and too careful, to violate the OTA guidelines (and contradicting PFT’s fingering of Marcus Bell in the process).

Nick Cotsonika also just posted a piece explaining the creative lengths Schwartz and company are going to stay on the right side of the law.  Apparently, these lengths weren’t creative enough—or, possibly, were they too creative?  Did a player, or player, decide that flipping and catching a tire was the football equivalent of cruel and unusual punishment? 

More importantly, what does this mean for the Lions and their team chemistry?  This isn’t a lazy, underperforming group going into their first practices under a hardnosed taskmaster.  This is a talented young team, handpicked by Mayhew and Schwartz for their New Era Of Awesome Lions.  Who’s not buying in?  Who’s so disgruntled with Schwartz that they’d go to the NFLPA?  Could this be a sign of the upcoming CBA-pocalypse?  Is this whistleblowing the first shot in the upcoming labor war between Lions players and Lions management?

No.  You see, in the wake of years of tacit, wink-nod slides from non-contact, to kind of a little contact, to mostly-full-speed OTAs, the NFLPA is now reviewing tapes of OTAs.  Apparently, the tempo and contact crossed the line.  There was no whistleblowing.  There is no dissent.  The Grandmaster’s plan is still intact, ready to be executed . . . he’ll just have fewer days to tell the players how to do it.

*UPDATE: At the time of writing, I wasn’t aware that PFT’s report wasn’t the final word on the issue.  Corrected the language to reflect this.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,OTAs,jim schwartz

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The Miseducation of Roy Williams

Roy Williams is a joke.  At least, that’s what they think in Dallas, according to Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports:

As much as Cowboys fans love to celebrate the Herschel Walker trade in 1989 that launched the great run of the 1990s, Williams is almost the antithesis of that deal. No, Williams didn’t cost as much as Walker gained, but Williams has fallen so far short of expectation that it’s a joke.

Just three years ago, Roy Williams was coming off of an 82-catch, 1,310-yard, 7-TD season.  In the words of a very-different-sounding Yahoo! Sports Roy Williams article from 2007: 

One season removed from his first Pro Bowl appearance, Detroit Lions wide receiver Roy Williams has firmly established himself as a star in the NFL.  What few outside of Detroit know is that he's also one of the most entertaining voices in the league.

Roy certainly was entertaining.  In Detroit, he came across as intelligent, funny, and famously stingy with his dollars—but not with his praise for teammates.  I always found Roy easy to like.  Seriously, a superstar NFL wideout who’s also a music-loving homebody?  That’s music to my ears.

Robinson: Not a lot of people know this about you, but you're a pretty musical guy. You play sax, piano and guitar, right?

Williams: Yeah. Hearing the sax when it's in jazz, it can really chill you out. That's one of the things when I retire – I want to move back to Odessa and buy a house once I stack that paper and learn the drums. I want to play the drums.

Upon reading that article, my wife happily christened Roy her Favorite Lion.  Her first Lions jersey was a home Williams #11.  Of course, besides all the awesome off-the-field stuff, Roy made a habit of doing on-field stuff like this:

Roy was on his way to being a superstar in Detroit—and when the Lions added Calvin Johnson, it seemed as though the Lions would have one of the best WR duos ever assembled.  But Roy took a step back in ‘07.  Shortly into the 2008 season, Roy’s role was that of the second fiddle, and his heart was elsewhere.

Clearly, he wasn't a great fit for Mike Martz's timing offense, preferring to use his physical tools to improves and dominate, rather than be exactly on a mark at exactly the right time.  Clearly, the losing bothered him.  Clearly, he didn’t enjoy drawing coverage so that Mike Furrey and Corey Bradford could catch balls in the margins.  From Nick Cotsonika’s piece in the Freep ($):

"I feel that if I'm not involved in the game and we lose, I'm (ticked) off," Williams said. "But if I'm not involved and we win, hey, it's a great job. And I've been like that since I've been here. I just feel like I can make some plays, as well. ... Three balls a week, that's not going to cut it."

Even though that article is titled “MAD MEN: ROY WILLIAMS,” I didn’t think he was angry.  He seemed . . . vacant.  Empty.  Whatever magic, whatever spark he possessed, it was gone.  Gone, as if he was just waiting get out of Detroit.  Gone, as if he’d already left.  Gone, as if he was already back in Texas.  From the Grand Rapids Press:

The one thing you learn about Williams very quickly is that he loves Texas and would love to return to his home state. Williams is a Texas guy and mentions it in nearly every interview and flies back to his home in Odessa to see his young child every chance he gets. If the Lions get two consecutive days off, Williams bolts for Texas. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but it shows where his heart is.

Well, Roy got his wish: he was traded to the Cowboys, he donned the star, he returned as the prodigal son.  But oddly, whatever went missing . . . it didn’t come back.

Watching Roy in Dallas, he plays like he’s got the weight of the world on his shoulders.  Actually, scratch that, it looks like he’s got the weight of the world in his hands.  He never possessed Herman Moore-soft hands—in fact, he’d garnered a bit of a reputation for dropping the easy ones.  But a man who made impossible catches seem routine suddenly couldn’t catch a cold.

Watching Roy attempt to catch a football these days is painful.  You can see him get open.  You can watch the ball come his way.  You can see him extend his hands, watch it all the way in, and then . . . FLUFFERNUTTER!  It shouldn’t happen with an NFL-caliber wideout, let alone one as gifted and well-compensated as he is.  I've speculated before that it might be his vision. Former Jaguar receiver Jimmy Smith struggled to catch the ball until his vision was corrected with surgery; it’s a wonder Roy can see anything through his trademark limo-tint visor.

Whatever it is—vision, malaise, a case of the yips—it can’t be that he’s just working because he needs the money.  When the Cowboys pay him the thirteen million dollars they owe him for this season, he’ll have earned fifty million in his career.  Agent Ben Dogra said, during a meeting with Roy and his family:

Let’s have a plan so he can achieve greatness, do what you have to do to be a great player. Roy can walk away from the game right now. He has all the money he needs, but this is about what’s inside of him, what he wants to be.

Well, that’s the question: what is inside Roy Williams?  What does he want to be?  For all his unfulfilled potential, for all of the millions of Lions-fan dollars he collected, for everything that his drafting, failing, and departure represents, I still want him to make good.  I can’t believe that Lions football was tainted, so cursed, that for a decade, no amount of talent, effort, or luck could make anyone who passed through this organization successful.

Get out there, Roy, and show the doubters they’re wrong.  Prove to them, to the spoiled Cowboys fans, and to us, that you really would have been successful.  Take your rightful place amongst the best and brightest in the NFL.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,dallas cowboys,roy williams

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big willie style struts his stuff

Recently, I wrote a speculative column about the role of Bill Ford Jr. in the day-to-day operations of the team.  Given the usual reclusiveness of his father, William Clay Ford, the Lions’ owner, and the recent sweeping changes in both staff and attitude, I theorized that maybe the baton had already passed.  Perhaps, the heir apparent had already ascended to the throne; the king abdicating in favor of the crown prince.

Apparently, I couldn’t have been more wrong.

Big Willie Style rolled up on minicamp in dramatic fashion:

rashaun rucker – detroit free press

He proceeded to pimp slap his media bitches, making pronouncement after eyebrow-raising pronouncement, claim after jaw-dropping claim.  Fans who have followed this team obsessively for years, fans who have postulated and speculated as to this man’s behind-the-scenes actions, fans who have presumed and assumed they knew this man’s motivations , were told point-blank that they have no idea what they’re talking about.

The many, many quotes he dropped were spread throughout several stories on each of the major newspaper’s sites—but here are a few doozies:

• “I feel so sorry for the fans in Detroit. I mean, I give them full marks for showing up. We didn't perform the way we should've performed or the way we could've. I felt worse for them than I did for myself. I thought it was horrible every time we'd lose. But the guys who stuck through it, I can't tell you how great that makes you feel. And for the ones that walked away, I couldn't blame them. It wasn't much fun to watch. It was pretty boring because you could about guess the outcome.”
• “People were getting fed up. And I don't blame them a bit. We didn't put up much of a show for them. And God knows what's gonna happen this year, more than anyone else does. But I think we'll give an honest day's effort and I think that's all they want. Of course they want us to win, and so do I, more than anything, but I think if they realize we're going down with our guns blazing, I think that'll be a very positive thing to have happen.”
• [did he take fans’ protests personally] “I mean, not that the yelling at the stadium does much for you. You get a couple of drunks and they can say anything. But you pay attention. If there's a noticeable decline in attendance and the comments are not favorable, you pay attention to it. The fans are really the people you want to please here. God, especially now in Detroit, the shape it's in, we gotta try twice as hard to give them their money's worth. The money is tough to come by for all of them, I understand that. But the least we can do is put on a good performance for them. I think we will. I certainly hope we will.”
• “No, I don't not, contrary to public opinion, interfere with the football side of it. I mean, if so-and-so plays lousy on Sunday, I think he's a bum (laughs). But no, I've never said, "Don't say play this guy or play that guy," uh-uh. These guys know more about the game than I do by 10 miles. So I'm not going to try and second-guess them. If something goes wrong, we'll talk about it.”

• [on the hirings of Lewand, Mayhew, and—incredibly—Jim Schwartz] "Well, this is going to sound a little egotistical, and maybe it is, but because this was solely my decision. Rather than being influenced by a lot of other thoughts and people who -- I respected their opinions -- but they were not exactly the same as mine, which is fine. But they influenced the decisions that were finally made. If Jim Schwartz doesn't work out, you can blame me 100 percent. I just have confidence in him."

There’s a lot here to take in.  I can’t possibly do a review of everything he’s done for the past thirty years, and marvel at the sharp relief cast by those actions in light of these statements.  It’s easy to say, “well, this is all a bunch of mularkey from the mind of a senile old man with delusions of grandeur who happens to have more money than God and owns my favorite football team.”  However, let’s ignore Blore’s Razor for a moment (Blore’s Razor being the maxim: “when presented with two possible theories, take the one that is funnier”), and work on the premise that absolutely every single word he said is true.

First of all, this is validation for both the “optimists” such as myself—the fans who espouse, you know, rooting for the team you say you root for—and the most virulent pessimists—the kind of worthless jerks who say stuff like “DIE FORD DIE” on message boards, or espouse boycotting the games.  It’s validation for everyone who ever said that the Millen Man March, orange-out, walkouts, etc. don’t matter and won’t work--they didn’t, and they didn’t.  Now, all the protests and chants didn’t fall on deaf ears, per se—they were willfully ignored by a man who pointed to his sold-out stadium and said “the real fans still care”.  It wasn’t until those fans, too started turning their backs on the team that he knew he had a problem—and, in that sense, he was right.  When the hardworking families of Michigan no longer find it worthwhile to spend a couple hundred bucks going to your team . . . you’ve hit the wall.  Ford was asked, did he stick with Millen for too long?

“Well, maybe. I think circumstances and timing were important. You don't want to jump ship after two games or one game. When the fans were really getting fed up, it's like, 'OK, it's time to make a move.' I thought about it obviously. The timing just worked out the way it did.”

Profootballtalk.com mocked this quote by jesting that instead of jumping ship after one or two games, Ford stuck with Millen for three games . . . and seven seasons, har har.  To me, however, that quote is quite telling.  It means that he was going to keep Millen on until either he turned it around, or the fans found the performance of the team completely unacceptable.  It apparently wasn’t even an option until the fans stopped coming.  The obvious reaction to this is that it “hit him in the pocketbook”—but what does Ford care about money?  The Lions could play to an empty stadium 16 weeks a year for the rest of his life, and he still wouldn’t lack for anything.  I’m going to take the high road here and say that Ford really didn’t think he’d lost the fans until the fans stopped coming.  I mean, they were losing 10+ games per season, raising prices, and still selling out!  That doesn’t happen if fans are really fed up, right?  I mean, from Ford’s box, what changed during that time?  The writers were ripping him?  They’d been doing that for forty years.  There were boos and chants?  Sure, from 50,000 paying customers.  How could he know that throughout the city, state, nation—and yes, judging from my traffic, the world—Lions fans were giving up and tuning out?

To an extent, I am playing Devil’s advocate here; giving Ford the benefit of the doubt.  In a world where Mark Cuban blogs and Tweets, an owner being so austere, aloof, even cloistered, seems antiquated.  Yet, from Mr. Ford’s perspective, it’s entirely possible that he didn’t realize the extent to which his team’s fans had walked away.  And yet . . . given how long it took for the fans to actually stop coming, and given how desperate everyone is to jump back on the bandwagon at the first sign of success--was he really wrong?  How many of us really did walk away in ‘04, or ‘05, or ‘06 . . . Really, for all of the griping, whining, pissing, and moaning that Lions fans did, it took 0-16 for us to actually walk away.  I can’t count how many times I have heard a fan say or read a fan type, “THAT’S IT!  I am DONE with this team!!”, only to have them chat me up about the latest Lions stuff the next day, or log back on to that Lions message board. 

It really does speak to the depth and breadth and passion of this Lions fanbase.  The Jaguars are perennial contenders--and can’t sell out their stadium even if they cover up half the seats!  Yet we kept coming and kept coming and kept coming, no matter how bad it got, for nearly a decade.  We kept buying jerseys and shirts and footballs and concessions.  We held on until the Lions hit absolute rock bottom.  Now, maybe Ford really is a crazy old coot who walks around completely clueless of everything that happens in the world around him—or maybe, just maybe, Big Willie Style had us all in check.

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The game is afoot

Well Martin Mayhew, Tom Lewand, and the fine folks at Octagon Football must have gotten my letters, because yesterday the Lions brass flew Andy Ross and Michael Sullivan in to begin talking contract.  Ross and Sullivan were invited onto the sidelines to watch practice, which is interesting.  As Dave Birkett points out in a great wrapup of yesterday's minicamp workouts, what this means is that the Lions want to be seen negotiating with Aaron Curry's representation.  The fact that they are also negotiating with Matt Stafford and Jason Smith's representation, with far less fanfare (Mayhew even declined comment when asked if he was also talking to Tom Condon, Stafford's agent), underscores to me that they know the fans want Curry, and they want them to think there's a chance.  Either that, or they're trying to convince other teams that Curry's candidacy is heating up; pulling the switcheroo I've been postulating for weeks.  Two easy steps to creating a trade market for the 1.1: convince everyone that Stafford is a mortal lock--then shortly before the draft, leak that you've nearly got Curry signed.  A team in the 1.3, 1.4, 1.5 area that was already getting Aaron Curry jerseys printed up will be scrambling, and the Lions can finally slide back a few spots, get a very good player, and save themselves like $8M guaranteed over the life of the deal.

I hate it.  Sign Curry! C'mon Ross and/or Sullivan!  Negotiate like you've never negotiated!  Come in low, make your client the first #1 overall linebacker in 20 years, and reap the marketing benefits like crazy!

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it's q-day

I believe that today is the day the Lions decide on Matt Stafford. Today, Schwartz, Linehan, Scott Linehan, and QB coach Jeff Horton will put Stafford through his paces.  John Niyo, and Nick Cotsonika have put up nice little pieces on it from two different angles.  

They'll be testing him in every way they can, shaking him out of his comfort zone and seeing how he reacts. Testing not just how much mustard he can put on a pass, but if he can accurately place a ball on a reciever, lead a reciever, throw it only where his reciever can catch it. Touch, spiral, catchability. Fades, screens, outs, slants . . .

. . . all the stuff Stafford hasn't proven he can do.  It is my belief that if Stafford can pass this test, that he can break out of his groove, be more than he's been, and show at least the tools to be a complete quarterback, he will be the first overall pick.  However, it's also my belief that Stafford has shined mostly by doing what he does, which is groove the ball downfield on deep go routes and skinny posts.  I think he's been rattled easily, or at the least has not been consistently calm and creative under pressure.  I have not seen him, in any of his games, show the kind of finesse, capability and versatility that a franchise QB must have.  

That all having been said, Scott Linehan knows exactly what he's doing with quarterbacks, and whoever he makes his starter of the future, he's going to be work hand-in-glove with.  When Linehan was hired, Schwartz said this about the QB-OC relationship:

"I think that the quarterbacks need one voice -- they need the offensive coordinator's voice,'' Schwartz said. "We still may have a quarterback coach, but the quarterbacks coach is going to be responsible for fundamentals and drill work.

"The only voice to the quarterback is going to be the offensive coordinator."

I said in my last post that Mayhew wouldn't pull the trigger on Stafford unless Schwartz knew that Linehan was comfortable with him.  Well, today is the day when Linehan finds out if he'll be comfortable with him.  They'll run him throught the gauntlet and see if he comes out the other side.  I guess we'll find out if he passed the test in late April . . . 

Non-sequitur: I recommend you all read this week's Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback.  The last page has several great little nuggets on Schwartz, the Lions, the draft, etc., all very good stuff.

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