Justin Durant is a Lion; Another LB In The Works?

. . . and with that, the Lions secured the services of Justin Durant. When we went shopping for outside linebackers in the Old Mother Hubbard series, this is what we found:

The dark horse of the OLB free agent class is Justin Durant, a 6’-1”, 240-pound wrecking ball from the Jaguars—a wrecking ball with a couple of cracks. Just look at the radar chart above: Durant’s stonking +15.5 against the run is second-best in the NFL. His missed tackle rate, one per 8.1 made, is right in the middle of the pack. This suggests, like Bulluck, Durant is slicing through blocking to get to the correct lanes, over and over and over again, showing veteran savvy in just his fourth year, even if his finishing isn’t top-notch.

There are two big concerns about Durant: one is his inability to stay healthy; he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons, plus six games last season. Second, he graded out as poorly against the pass as he did well against the run. His appalling –13.2 on coverage put him fourth-worst in the NFL, and his –1 in pass rush is below-average, too. He’s allowed a slightly-better-than-average 75.6% of his targets to be caught, and his passer rating allowed is dead on NFL average: 98.6, vs. 98.8 . . . but you don’t earn a –13.2 on only 491 snaps without being consistently poor in coverage. Durant has the physical tools to be an impact player, but so far it’s more potential than production.

Where this leaves us is a little bit uncertain. Mike O’Hara reported that the Lions love Durant’s ability to play inside or outside, and certainly his skill set lends itself to a move inside. However, Durant agreed only to a two-year deal; it seems unlikely that he’ll be tabbed to be the new quarterback of the defense.

Indeed, reports indicate that the Lions have laid a massive offer on Stephen Tulloch’s table, which wasn’t retracted when they landed Durant. If Tulloch eventually lands with the Lions (Dave Birkett of the Freep indicated that’s unlikely), he would doubtlessly take over the middle, and Durant would move outside.

Ideally, I think that's the role the Lions envision for Durant: a big, fast, athletic tackler who can shut down half the run game and rush the passer a bit. A good comparison might be Julian Peterson, circa 2009—only Durant will be entering his prime, not past it. Unfortunately, the Lions still need to add either a coverage OLB and keep Levy in the middle, or add a complete MLB and shift Levy outside. I don’t see Durant contributing to the nickel packages, either—he’ll be a two-down beast on the outside if he can stay healthy.

One of the best Jaguars sources out there, Alfie Crow from Big Cat Country, talked with Khaled Elsayed of Pro Football Focus about the Jags’ free agents. Here are some of the things he said about Durant:

Khaled: Though he's more a two down player, you watch Justin Durant sometimes and think he could be one of the top ten linebackers in the league. Granted, in space he can look like one of the worst ten, but give him a two down role and he can really put himself about.

Alfie:As far as Justin Durant, he looked to me a classic case of missed potential. Physically he's what you ask for in a linebacker, but his instincts left a lot to be desired. He'd run himself out of plays and just couldn't stay healthy. More often than not, availability supercedes ability, especially at the linebacker position. He wound up being just average, and average is easily replaceable at linebacker.

Perhaps Justin Durant is, all things considered, an “average” all-around OLB—but as the PFF data shows, that “average” is a tantalizing mix of brilliant and cringeworthy. It’s true that you can get “unremarkable” linebackers anywhere, but brilliant is tough to come by. If the Lions can deploy the “brilliant” for 50% of the snaps, and take him off the field the other half, they might have gotten an incredible value. This jibes with the general approach the Lions have taken: get players with outstanding tools, put them in roles that maximize their talent.

The situation is changing rapidly; I’ve rewritten this post to reflect the latest news several times. But, if the Lions can add Tulloch (or another 3-down ILB like the Packers’ Nick Barnett), they will have massively upgraded the linebacker corps, and the defense as a whole. If they can’t add another top-notch all-around LB, they’ll have two athletic young players in Durant and Levy who can both play inside or outside. Considering they were starting special-teamers last season, even the worst-case scenario looks pretty good.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl free agency,justin durant,stephen tulloch,deandre levy,linebackers

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Outside Linebackers

If you're joining our roster review already in progress, here are the Old Mother Hubbard breakdowns for:

• the Defensive Tackles
• the Defensive Ends
• the Inside Linebackers

Before we delve into the next three positions, let me take a little time to address an email I received about the DE breakdown. Scott D. wrote:

You mentioned while you were watching the Jets game live, that you, in essence, personally discounted the PFF rankings for how KVB played in that particular game because of what ends up being, in your own terms, the "eyeball factor". Yet in every other aspect of the OMH series thus far, you're putting a great deal of credit in the PFF rankings.

It’s important to understand what the PFF data is, and what it isn’t. The PFF player grades are what I’ve been showing on the radar charts. They’re the PFF staff’s opinion on how well a player carries out his assignment. Each player is graded on every snap they play, and the final grades consist of those per-play grades aggregated and normalized. Every-down consistency scores much better than occasional excellence, and penalties weigh heavily on the final grade. On the whole, they present a good benchmark for overall performance, relative to an average NFL starter.

PFF also takes the time to go back and tally sacks, tackles, QB pressures, QB hits, missed tackles, and other stats. These aren’t subjective performance grades, they’re straight tallies of actual results—and they’re far more accurate than “offical” tackle and sack numbers, which are done on the fly, in real time, by team scorers with varying personal standards.

The KVB “eyeball test” you’re talking about?  Here’s what I said:

I had really good seats to the Jets game, and seeing KVB in action live was something else. He never missed an opportunity—before, during, or after the snap—to remind the Jets that he was there. That he was fighting. That they needed to keep their head on a swivel. That they needed to watch their ass. Vanden Bosch and the Lions out-Jetted the Jets on that day, mostly thanks to KVB and his leadership. PFF graded him at a –2.1 on the day, but I know he had a positive impact.

I was insinuating that KVB was playing . . . well, not dirty, but . . . okay, kinda dirty. He played to, and through, and also a little bit after the whistle. Not trying to injure—just not letting up, getting in a little extra on every play. He was very physical, very intense, and set the tone for a Lions defense that came to kick the butt-kickers’ butts. That doesn’t mean KVB was unblockable off the edge, or impossible to run on, or anything like that. In the PFF grader’s opinion, KVB executed his play assignments at a below-average level. But, I know his leadership made the whole defense better on that day.

Again: the news is not good. The dark gray line is Kamerion Wimbley, the top-graded 4-3 OLB. The thick black line is the NFL average. The goldish line is Scott Shanle, the backmarker. This means the Saints had both the worst ILB and the worst OLB . . .

Unfortunately, things aren’t so hot for the Lions, either. Julian Peterson was the only Lions OLB to meet PFF’s 25% snap-count threshold; he was also the Lions’ worst-graded OLB. He, like all the Lions OLBs, was right at the NFL average for pass rush, but strongly negative in coverage (-6.6). All that is moot, however, because Peterson was released.

Bobby Carpenter was a deft mid-October signing by the Lions. Apparently the Lions had been high on him for a while; Tom Kowalski reported that Martin Mayhew asked for Carpenter in the Roy Williams trade, Mayhew’s first roster move as Lions GM. The Cowboys ultimately swapped their disappointing first-rounder for the Rams’, OT Alex Barron. The 6’-2”, 245-pound Carpenter was cut by the Rams during training camp, picked up by Miami, and then cut midseason after he screwed up badly on special teams.

In Killer's article on Carpenter's signing, he points out that Carpenter is solid against the run, and in dropping back to cover; the PFF grades partially back that up. Carpenter was right at NFL averages for pass rush, but a bit above average in coverage. In fact, Carpenter’s coverage grade was the best single grade of any returning Lions OLB. Unfortunately, Carpenter was about as far below average against the run as he was above average in coverage, so his final grade is just a smidge below average. Keep in mind, though, that’s for 4-3 OLB who played in at least 25% of their teams’ snaps (which Carpenter did not).

Bottom Line: In limited reps, Carpenter showed he can be a creditable player for the Lions. He’ll never be the pass rusher the Lions want from the OLB spot—but with a full offseason in the system he should be able to pull his weight out there.

Ashlee Palmer was the Typhoid Mary of “One Man’s Trash Syndrome,” a good young player let go because another team was switching schemes. Palmer, 6’-1”, 236 pounds, was a UDFA rookie for the Bills in 2009. He made an impact as a special teams standout, and looked great in backup duty. But, out with the old—Dick Jauron’s 4-3—and in with the new—Jim Haslett’s 3-4—and the Lions got a great value pickup.

Palmer got 240 snaps at outside linebacker, roughly split between the right and left. He also had about a hundred snaps in the middle, so he never had a chance to get comfortable anywhere.  He graded out more or less across-the-board average for the first five weeks, then had a really rough streak in weeks 6, 8, 9, and 11. That’s alarming, since he got many of his snaps in that stretch. He finished with another long streak of averageness in lighter action, though, and put an exclamation point on the season with a +3.1 day against Miami where he played 50% of snaps.

On the whole, Palmer was an average rusher, slightly above average in coverage, and below average against the run. He was slightly less effective in coverage than Carpenter, and a full tick worse in run support.

Bottom Line: Palmer is a young, tough, versatile player forced to play all three LB positions as a 2nd-year UDFA, and produced at a slightly-below-average level. He’ll be a valuable rotation player, and possibly an okay starter with a full offseason at OLB. Still, he doesn’t have impact tools or impact upside.

What a wild ride it’s been for the Pain Train. Zack Follett, member of the Lions Fan Favorite Hall of Fame Class of 2009, entered the season as a starting outside linebacker. After making headlines over the offseason with his Tweeting and vlogging, Follett saw in about 150 snaps at the left linebacker spot, before a scary helmet-to-helmet hit put him out for the season.

Follett was sort of the yang to Ashlee Palmer’s yin. Standing at a nearly identical 6’-2”, 236, Follett was graded slightly below Palmer in pass rush (!), significantly below Palmer in coverage, but significantly above in run support. Follett, to my eyes, is more naturally athletic and has a higher upside, but appeared to be “swimming” out there; thinking instead of reacting. Follett was often a half-step behind, a half-instant too slow in making plays, because he didn’t recognize the need to act quickly enough. However, the recognition did come and the ability is there.

It’s worth pointing out that Follett got heavy reps against the Lions’ stiffest competition, in the front half of the season. Further, defenses were picking on Follett’s coverage more: opponents threw at Follett every 16.45 snaps, as opposed to 21.8 for Palmer.

As a sidebar, they threw at Landon Johnson every 11.4 snaps, which would have been the third-most-frequent in the NFL if Johnson had played more snaps at OLB.

Bottom Line: Zack Follett is still a very young player who showed a lot more pass rush ability at Cal than he’s shown so far in the NFL. With another full offseason to get the defense down pat, he should be able to do less thinking and more reacting. If he’s medically okay to play, he deserves to be in the mix with Palmer and Carpenter, especially being stronger against the run than either.

Right now, the Lions have three very good rotational players who have an interesting mix of youth, experience, and upside. They each bring a slightly different approach to the game, and each have a slightly different skill set. However, my understanding of the Lions defense was that they wanted two (in-his-prime) Julian Petersons at OLB; two big, fast pass rushers who are athletic enough to not be a liability in coverage. Unless Follett puts it together, they don’t have anyone who can rush the passer from the OLB spot.

An interesting observation: note that the best overall 4-3 OLB, Kam Wimbley, was only graded at +23.7, and he had a sizable lead over Nos. 2 & 3: +17.7, and +14.1, respectively. Since the top DT and DE each graded at about +45 , and the top ILB was about +35, this suggests that 4-3 OLBs just don’t play a big of a role in the success of the defense. As long as they aren’t total liabilities against the pass, and don’t miss a slew of tackles, you can get away with a pedestrian OLB . . . or two. Perhaps a major investment at OLB is unwise. Indeed, Mayhew said he’s perfectly comfortable with Palmer and Carpenter as starters in 2011.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions, undeniably, lack impact players at OLB. The 2010 performances of Carpenter, Palmer, and Follett suggest the Lions could “get away with” drafting a developmental OLB, letting all four compete for snaps at LB, and featuring all four in special teams units. However, if the Lions are looking for impact pass rushers in these spots going forward, they’ll need to draft one and acquire another.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,team needs,2011 offseason,2011 free agency,2011 nfl draft,julian peterson,zack follett,ashlee palmer,bobby carpenter

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the pills tell me I’m not crazy

Yesterday, FOXsports.com writer, and Sirius NFL radio host,  Adam Schein posted one of his “Schein’s Nine” pieces, similar to Peter King’s “Ten Things I Think I Think”.  The final item certainly turned my head: Packers cornerback Al Harris proclaiming that the Lions can win eight games this season.  Per Schein, Harris is enamored of the Lions’ new coaching staff—not only The Grandmaster, but new coordinators Cunningham and Linehan.  He likes the way the Lions have set up the quarterback position, the way they ran their draft, and the impact veterans brought in—especially the new linebackers, Julian Peterson and Larry Foote.

Predictably, Schein then distances himself as far as possible from this bold proclamation, saying the Lions have “no shot” at winning eight games.  What absolutely floors me about this, is that most of the NFL media spent all of last year marvelling at the incredible job that the Dolphins and Falcons did in turning their franchise around, and consequently spent all spring babbling about teams switching coaches and drafting players and signing free agents to follow their blueprint, and yammering on about which team will be “this year’s Dolphins” . . . and yet when presented with a smart, veteran football player with a deep passion not only for playing the game, but the business of the game, saying that a division rival could pull off an eight-win improvement, it’s laughable.  Ridiculous.  “No shot”.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not putting money on the Lions playing .500 ball this year—I predicted them to go 7-9, remember—but it goes to show what creatures of habit, routine, and expectation we are.  It can’t be impossible for an NFL club to rise from the very, very depths of the NFL to win double-digit games, without making a huge, splashy move—we’ve just seen TWO teams do it!  Neither the Fins nor Falcons dropped $100M on a megastar.  Neither the Fins nor Falcons hired The Hot Candidate to coach their team; I bet you most NFL fans still couldn’t bring Mike Smith’s name to their tongues.  Neither the Fins nor Falcons got a lot of attention for the important moves they did make; each added quality veterans like Chad Pennington and Michael Turner.

NFL fans and media spent all spring talking about following these two teams’ “blueprint” for success--but very few of those people seem to understand what that blueprint is, what was successful about it, and how teams are going about replicating it.  Of course, much time has been wasted scouring NFL depth charts, looking for wideouts and tailbacks who played quarterback at some post-Pop Warner  point in their careers, so they can be floated as possible candidates to “run the wildcat” . . . but the Wildcat isn't “the blueprint”, it's a PRODUCT of the blueprint.  The Dolphins thinking of, testing, tuning, and deploying the Wildcat formation in the NFL last season is the product of having good coaches at every level of the staff, a deep and talented roster, and a franchise-wide committment to quality and innovation.

Again, I am not floating the Lions as a potential playoff team.  I’m not saying that if you think the Lions will only win five games (Schein’s prediction), that you’re a moron.  All I’m saying is, in the NFL, on any given Sunday—and in any given season—anything can happen.  No team ever has “no shot” to win big (or lose big), especially when we’re still on this side of training camp.

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key performance indicators

In business, the traditional ways of measuring success are with the broad overall goals: sales, revenue, profit-and-loss.  Are sales up or down?  Are costs up or down?  Is the profit margin higher this quarter compared to last?  Compared to the same quarter last year?  These are all different ways of asking the same question--the BIG question: whether the company is making money.  That’s the bottom line, after all; success for a business is defined by making money, and the traditional metrics of success all focus on that.

However, a business is more complicated than that (and forgive, businessmen out there, if I’m serenading you with the business equivalent of “Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star”).  A simple evaluation based on whether the company is currently making money doesn’t provide any insight into whether the company is healthy and growing, whether that growth, if it exists, is sustainable, or if the company will still be profitable a year from now.  For that deeper insight, businesses look at more difficult-to-quantify, but possibly more valuable, ‘Key Performance Indicators’.  KPIs might be things like new customer retention, talent retention, customer willingness to recommend, etc.  If the business has had a tough quarter, that might be the result of broader economic trends or factors—but if new customers are increasingly loving the product and telling all their friends, the core business might be in a great position for growth.

Tomorrow, the Lions open a three-day minicamp.  This minicamp will be the first practice with pads, helmets, veterans, rookies, blocking, tackling, lifting, film, and everything else that comes with real, actual football.  This will be the first time that the Lions’ staff will get a chance to really evaluate most of the positions—you can’t evaluate the O-line, tight ends, or anyone on the defense when full-speed blocking and tackling aren’t allowed.  It will also be the first time that the rookies and veterans will practice and compete for jobs together—not rookies versus rookies, or vets versus vets, but the entire roster starting with a level playing field—in a drastic departure from the prior regime, there will be no depth chart until deep into training camp.

We won’t get to see this First Real Football in detail.  There won’t be any TV broadcast we can TiVO and replay.  There won’t be any live streaming play-by-play.  There probably won’t be any live Tweeting, either (since the Twitter-savviest Detroit sports journalist, Greg Eno, has informed me he won’t be there).  And of course, we won't have any of the typical measures of football success to go by--yards, points, wins, or losses.  So, we’ll have to wade knee-deep into the stream of quotes, blurbs, blogs, and articles that will flow through our favored information channels in the nights and days following these practices, and hope to catch some fish of truth*.

I’ve identified a few KPIs that Lions observers should watch with interest:

• The WRs vs. the DBs:  Calvin “Megatron” Johnson is awesome.  He’s completely sweet.  This is essentially the only known quantity on the Lions’ roster; we know that Megatron can and will match up against the very best the NFL has to offer—and will produce no matter how awful whoever’s throwing him the ball is.  This will allow us to measure what might be this team’s greatest on-paper weakness: the cornerback position.  Buchanon and Henry—and, if Henry slides back to safety . . . *gulp* . . . Eric King—lining up across from Megatron will give us a concrete idea of just how bad things will be for us at corner.  Will he dominate?  Most likely.  But the difference between him dominating, and him being completely unstoppable, could also be the difference between shutting down a Bernard Berrien—or not. 
• The interior OL vs. the interior DL:  Cliff Avril, in a recent interview on  Sirius NFL Radio, revealed that with DT Grady Jackson working out lightly at home, fourth-round rookie Sammie Hill has been running with the ones.  Hill, a very raw athletic talent, will get invaluable reps against smart, tough veteran center Dominic Raiola, and . . . a couple of other guys.  Raiola, of course, will be giving up somewhere between 20 and 40 pounds to the big youngster, but we’ll get a good sense of exactly how raw Hill is by how much of that size advantage Raiola will be able to neutralize with leverage, footwork, and technique.  Also, we’ll get a sense of which of the many mountain-sized men the Lions have acquired this offseason will be playing on either side of Raiola.  Young veterans Daniel Loper and Stephen Peterman are thought to have the inside track on the left and right guard spots, respectively--but Loper’s 6’-6” frame is probably better suited to tackle, and Peterman has been inconsistent at best throughout his career.  The Lions’ leadership is thought to believe that with the shift from a pass-heavy zone blocking scheme to a traditional, run-first, drive blocking scheme, will emphasize Peterman’s strengths and conceal his weaknesses.  Also, new OL coach George Yarno was Peterman’s OL coach at LSU, so he may be able to draw out the best in the former third-rounder.  Seeing how these two—or others—fare versus the Lions’ iffy, depleted, and very young DT corps will go a long way toward revealing just how much all these OL acquisitions have bolstered the line.
• The voice of the defense:  Lions fans everywhere jumped for joy when veteran MLB—and Detroit native, and U-M alum—Larry Foote forced his release from the Super-Bowl-winning Pittsburgh Steelers, and signed with the 0-16 Detroit Lions.  It was presumed that he’d be the “thumper” in the middle of the defense that the Lions seemed to have failed to acquire, and was also presumed to be the new veteran leader of the defense.  However, rookie S Louis Delmas took that role upon himself in the rookie-only minicamp, rallying his unitmates, and bantering constantly with QB Matt Stafford.  It will be interesting to see how these two interact with each other, and the rest of the defense.  Will their big-time personalities mesh—like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in Baltimore, and like Foote and Troy Polamalu did in Pittsburgh?  Or, will they clash?  This weekend will be the first indication we’ll get which of the new prized cattle is wearing the bell.
• The impact of the linebackers: On a team rated a putrid, horrible, awful, wretched, nasty, rotten, worthless 65 overall in Madden 2010, the Lions still have the 5th-highest-rated linebacking corps.  The veteran additions—Foote, and former Spartan Julian Peterson—will join Ernie Sims to form the most athletic and aggressive Lions linebacking corps since the late 80’s /early 90s groups that featured Chris Spielman, Mike Cofer, and others.  Moreover, they’ll have the confining, one-gap, stay-at-home, short-zone leashes attached to them by the Tampa 2 defense taken off, and their jobs will be honed down to two things: running upfield, and killing people.  Ernie Sims, I suspect, will have a dramatic renaissance in this scheme, living up to his impressive potential.  Even though Peterson and Foote have limitations in coverage, their games are both beautifully suited to this new Guntherball scheme as well.  Also, look out for Jordon Dizon; Cunningham seems to like him as well, and he should see a lot of time in the nickel packages.  Since we know that tackles Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus—and new acquisitions like Jon Jansen and Ephraim Salaam—struggle against speed off the edge, hope for the outside linebackers to be very disruptive.  They will not be allowed to actually punish the quarterbacks at this stage of the offseason, but if the news comes back that the linebackers are overwhelming the offensive line, then that is good news indeed.

*”Fish of Truth” is a good name for a band.

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larry foote, finally home

As Dave Birkett reported--and I subsequently Tweeted--last night, Larry Foote is officially a Detroit Lion.

The subsequent celebration throughout the Lions blogosphere has been predictable.  From speculation that Mayhew and The Grandmaster had this move in mind throughout the draft, to joyous shouts of "Aaron Curry who?" on forums (yes, really), the verdict from Lions fans is in: the signing of Larry Foote is an unqualified home run.

It's not that I disagree.  Foote is a veteran inside linebacker, a proven run-stopper, and has been one of the leaders of the best defense in football--a defense which boasts two Super Bowl titles in the past three years.  In those same three years, the Lions' roster has been completely turned over; only a handful of players were even here for the Mariucci days.  At this point, the Lions' defense is a clean slate--player-wise, extremely young, and scheme-wise, they're starting from scratch.  A "thumper" DeAndre Levy might be, but he has no idea what day-to-day life in the NFL is like.  He's never had to take on a NFL fullback, get an NFL guard's hands off him, or square up and wrap up an NFL tailback.  Foote, however, has been to the mountaintop--twice.  His understanding of how to play, how to practice, how to expect victory, and how to execute under pressure, all of that will be absolutely invaluable to the young Lions linebackers.  In the locker room, in the film room, on the practice field, on the gridiron, and in the huddle, Larry Foote will not only be a leader of and example for the talented greenhorns this defense is being built around, he'll also provide legitimacy to the other veterans who've just been added.  Grady Jackson, Julian Peterson, Anthony Henry, and Philip Buchanon are not going to prick up their ears when DeAndre Levy speaks.  However, when Larry Foote flashes his rings, you can bet he'll have their undivided attention.

That all having been said, let's be realistic.  Foote is a very good player, but he has limitations.  He'll be strictly a two-down linebacker here; he's notoriously weak in pass coverage.  At 29, he's hardly over the hill, but the Steelers drafted Lawrence Timmons to replace him--and that's exactly what Timmons is doing.  Moreover, Foote is on a one-year deal, reportedly at his request.  This is a 'prove-it' deal, where Foote is going to try to make a big impact, and then get paid.  Will the Lions be the ones who give Larry Foote a lavish deal which he'll retire on--in what might possibly be an uncapped year?  Not if they stick to their plan of building through the draft and financial prudence, they won't.  No, this will almost certainly be DeAndre Levy's job in 2010.  Foote will enjoy being at home for a year, and with luck we'll get everything he has left while he pads out his free agent resume.  He has all the incentive in the world to have a career year . . . let's enjoy that fact, hope Levy and Sims and Dizon and Follett all learn everything they can from him, and move on.

Like Jackson, Henry, Buchanon, et. al., Foote is a stopgap; an older player who fits a need.  He's a smart, cheap, temporary acquistion.  The kind of player that he is, is the kind of player the Lions are trying to draft.  He was available, the price was right, he filled a need, and Mayhew pulled the trigger.  Today, we are not celebrating the cornerstone of the new Lions' defense being set--we're celebrating the raising of a really sharp-looking "Coming Soon" sign.

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the Lions Congregation, part IV

It's time for another round of the Lions Congregation over at the Church of Schwartz.  Topics for today are:

* Julian Peterson Trade: Yay, Nay or Meh?

* What Do You Prefer: Aaron Curry at 1.1 or Stafford/OT at 1.1 and James Laurinaitis at 1.20?

* Are any of the young linemen on the roster (Cohen, Fluellen, Ikaika A-F) capable of filling Redding’s shoes?

I encourage you folks to check out the Good Reverend's site; he has a draft review series going right now that's a unique idea.  It's also brutally depressing . . .

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speculation about speculation about speculation

This little tidbit appeared on the mlive.com "Highlight Reel" blog: the Lions might be sniffing around Buffalo's LT, Jason Peters.  Peters played last year in Buffalo only after an extensive holdout, and this year he looks ready to do the same.  Peters is doing the same thing that many of us have been doing lately when examining candidates for the first overall pick: comparing his worth to that of 2008 rookie LT Jake Long.  This is the first time (that I know of) that a player is trying to establish his market price in relation to a recent top pick, as opposed to what other veterans are fetching on the free agent market.  The Bills appear to be essentially saying, "Hey, 1.1s get 1.1 money; their market is compared to previous 1.1s, not to veteran players of the same position".  These negotiations, if they go sour, might be a tipping point in the debate over the contracts doled out at the top of the draft . . .

Meanwhile, the Lions are licking their chops.  If they can get a young, proven veteran LT in his prime, then they will have filled another hole.  Moreover, that would give them tremendous flexibility in their attempts to swing a deal for Jay Cutler.  If they already have a franchise LT, and MLBs look plentiful at 1.20, they could trade the 1.1 to Denver, let them board the Matt Stafford Failboat, and ride Jay Cutler to the NFC North title, the year after going 0-16.  Or, they could draft Aaron Curry 1.1, and still give up the 1.20 without giving up the chance to land a quality LT.  Or, they could draft Stafford 1.1 without guilt, knowing they've already built a tremendous OL in front of him, and put talented skill players around him.

One other article I'd like to draw your attention to is over at DF79's blog.  He dissected the Redding/Peterson trade in incredible detail, including all of the various salary cap implications.  A tip of that hat to you, sir.

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cory redding goes sittin' by the dock of the . . . puget sound?

UPDATE: The Free Press has several quotes from Curry on the trade:

"Actually, I’m very excited about that (trade), being that he’s going to be a perfect Sam linebacker,” Curry said in a phone interview. “Ernie Sims is going to be a great Will (weak-side linebacker) and I just have the opportunity to play the Mike. That Mike position is always a position that I always looked at at Wake Forest that I wanted to play but just never was allowed to really just play it 400 snaps (a season)."

Yeah, that's a tortured Otis Redding pun in the title.

Earlier today, PFT reported rumors that the Lions and Seahawks were in talks to swap Cory Redding for Julian Peterson . . . now Killer is reporting that it's nearly a done deal, and Fox is reporting that it IS a done deal.

The knee-jerk reaction is "Oh, I guess no Curry then."  JP is a Sam 'backer, who happens to have a gift for pass rushing, much like Curry.  Theoretically, they would play similar roles in the defense.  However, IMO JP is more limited than Curry.  Peterson was a hybrid DE/OLB at State, a bit of a 'tweener who wreaked havoc from either spot.  However, he's played at the strong side mostly because of his size and speed; he's not that gifted in coverage.  Curry, however, can roam the field like a safety.  If the Lions are considering drafting Curry #1 overall, and having him center JP and Ernie . . . wow.  The Lions would boast a devastatingly fast, strong, and athletic linebacker corps.

Moreover, the Lions would get out from underneath a rotten contract . . . Redding is still one of the highest-paid defensive tackles in the game, yet he's been barely more than a placeholder without an impact nose tackle next to him.  I think we should expect big things from Andre Fluellen in 2009 (assuming the Lions don't draft a DT to start ahead of him).  With their new free-weight training program and an emphasis on maxxing out size and power, I believe Andre Fluellen's athletcism will make him a force to be reckoned with--especially with Grady Jackson occupying two blockers on most downs.

It's sad to see one of the last pieces of What Might Have Been shipped off . . . but it again reinforces a few points:

1) Martin Mayhew is a Real Live NFL GM who has a plan and is executing it like a pro
2) Mayhew and Schwartz are on exactly the same page when it comes to how to build this team
3) They're going to do it by getting bigger, faster, and stronger on defense, right away

I'm all for it.  Yes, yes, yes, today is a good day to be a Lions fan . . . and the blue flame burns a bit brighter yet.

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