Florida is one of the most prominent football states in the nation. Some of the best high school football is played there, some of the best college football is played there, and every other college swings through the peninsula to harvest some of the annual bumper crop of talent.
When a 6’-0”, 184-pound kid from football factory Lakewood (Green is the ninth alumnus to be drafted) with all-district honors at tailback and cornerback qualifies for the Florida state track championships in the 100-meter, 4x100 and 4x400 relays, the football world stands up and takes notice . . .
Green ended up signing with South Carolina’s Benedict College, a member of the D-II Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference. I don’t know if he had eligibility problems, or if he just wasn’t rated as a prospect. Either way, at Benedict Green’s size, speed and ability stood out. He racked up 41 tackles (16 solo), 4 INTs, 2 passes defensed and a sack.
Yes, for those with sharp eyes and keen minds, Atlanta's Stillman College plays in the same conference. Future Detroit Lions Sammie Hill and Jonte Green faced one another on November 10th, 2007. Hill had 3 solo tackles, 5 assists and a sack, while Green had three solos. For the record: Stillman beat Benedict 35-13.
After Green's excellent true freshman performance he received a D-I offer, from New Mexico State, and committed on February 4th, 2009. After transferring, he redshirted a season.
As a redshirt sophomore, Green took over. In his first career D-I start, vs. Idaho, he racked up 7 tackles and a pass defensed. Ultimately, Green had the fourth-most tackles on the team, racking up 74, and 8 passes defensed, in New Mexico’s 13 games. Green’s junior season: started 12 games, notched 76 tackles (ranked fourth on the team) and 8 passes defensed.
You might be noticing a pattern here: a lot of tackles, some passes defensed, and no interceptions. I’d be tempted to say it’s because the other cornerback, Packers 2011 4th-rounder Davon House, was hogging them all. But Aggie opponents, you’d think, would want throw away from House, who was first-team All-WAC both seasons he started alongside Green, and pick on Green.
But sure enough, when House left, Green’s senior season as the #1 corner saw his statistics skyrocket. He got his only D-I interception, and 15 passes defensed, to go with his usual fourth-best-on-the-team 64 tackles. For his standout campaign, he was named Second Team All-WAC.
Unfortunately, Green once again went unnoticed. Apparently a 5'-11 1/4", 191-pound corner who started three years in the WAC and starred in Florida high school track (and competed in track at Benedict) doesn’t merit a combine invite. But Green’s Pro Day made up for it: he cut an average 4.41 40-yard dash, which would have tied him for second-best at the Combine. According to Justin Rogers at Mlive.com, though, Green thinks he can run faster.
Actually, his Pro Day results concern as much as they intrigue. His 3-cone drill (7.26) and 20-yard shuttle (4.31) times are definitely on the high end; Green may have straight-line speed but lack the agility and change-of-direction needed to cover downfield at the NFL level.
What he brings: Green has excellent range in coverage and he flashed above-average coverage skills, but he's too inconsistent at this point and he needs to get stronger to matchup with bigger receivers.
SI.com graded Green a 1.81, just below their 1.98 maximum for "Free Agent": "Player who will make a 60 or 80 man roster."
Positives: Athletic cornerback who's displayed a variety of skill in his game. Plays with an aggressive nature, works hard to defend the run and makes a lot of tackles up the field. Keeps the action in front of him, gets a nice jump on the throw and displays a good move to the pass. Can burst to the ball out of his plant and works to make plays. Solid return specialist who sets up blocks, finds the running lanes and quickly gets through them.
Negatives: Does not consistently play to his 40 time or show a burst. Loses opponents, blows assignments and does a lot of trailing down the field. Struggles staying with receivers out of breaks.
Analysis: Green is a size/speed prospect who flashed ability the past three years yet has shown little consistency in his ball skills. Best in zone coverage, he's a prospect who must earn his wage on special teams.
Pro Football Weekly's take on Green contains an interesting wrinkle: apparently Green participated in New Mexico's Pro Day as a junior, and he was both smaller (5'-10 3/4", 182 pounds) and slower (4.45) just a year before.
Summary: Three-year starter with outstanding timed speed and range, though his inconsistent play, poor instincts and suspect football character suppress his draft value. Could require simple assignments and needs to get stronger and adopt a more professional approach to the game in order to stick.
Strengths: Good starting experience as a three-year starter and good career production (30 pass break-ups). Good size/speed blend with good height and length to match up and the speed to stay with receivers. Aggressive in run support and attacks the action, not waiting for it. Quick read/react skills to plant-and-go when the play is in front of him. Toughness isn't a question. Full-go type of player and doesn't play half-speed or take plays off.
Weaknesses: Has room to get stronger and needs to add some more bulk. Plays flat-footed in his backpedal and is often a step too late, relying on his speed to catch up. Smaller hands and has only 2 career interceptions. Needs to do a better job wrapping and not just hitting. Streaky instincts and doesn't always play smart, needs to do a better job trusting his eyes. Didn't face elite competition week-in and week-out. Tight-hipped and doesn't look as natural flipping his body to turn and run downfield.
New Era Scouting didn’t have a profile for Green, nor did he crack their cornerback rankings.
Here I sit, broken hearted. I looked for YouTube Highlight Reels of Jonte Green and all I found were interviews and press conferences.
Conclusion
In some ways, Jonte Green is the archetypal Lions draft pick: starting caliber tools, potential to be a major contributor, big question marks about him ever hitting that upside. But rather than those question marks coming from injuries or character or college system or college competition, the questions are about his football instincts.
Generally, The Grandmaster & Co. prefer players with high football IQ, but generally such players aren’t hanging around in the sixth round when they’re nigh-on six feet cornerbacks with legit 4.40 speed.
As a prospect, he reminds me quite a bit of Stanley Wilson, the Lions’ 2005 third-rounder. Wilson was also 5’-11”, also about 190 pounds, also a track star. Wilson set Stanford records in the 100- and 200-meter dash, and he cut a blazing 4.36 40-yard time at the Combine. The biggest difference between Wilson and Green is Wilson’s Stanford-quality academic background and Pac-10 pedigree.
At the time, I wondered if Wilson wasn’t better suited to playing safety; just like Green his reaction skills were much better with the play in front of him than flipping his hips and running downfield. I thought Wilson would be a great zone/Tampa 2 corner, but he never caught on.
Green, like all Lions cornerbacks, will have every opportunity to earn playing time this season. All he has to is go out on the Allen Park field, and take the opportunity to finally catch everyone’s attention.
Timing is everything. Opportunity knocks but once. Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered. You never get a second chance to leave a first impress—okay, well that one doesn’t exactly fit but you get the gist.
The Lions’ final member of the 2012 draft class never dreamed he’d be drafted in the latter half of the seventh round. Indeed, in the 2011 draft cycle the NFL Draft Advisory Board gave him a second-round grade. Lewis, according to Tulsaworld.com, wanted to lead his Sooners to a national championship—and he wanted to be some team’s first draft choice in 2012, not their last.
Coming out of Robert E. Lee HS in San Antonio, TX, Lewis was a 6’-1,” 213-pound linebacker with searing speed and obvious potential. You can’t have that kind of ceiling in Texas and go unnoticed, and he certainly didn’t. He received offers from pretty much the entire Big XII, and committed to Nebraska as a junior.
Lewis was switched to tailback his senior year, and didn't miss a beat—he rushed for 1,436 yards on 222 carries. He attended the Army combine and NIKE camp, where he ran an “electronically timed” 4.34. Cough.
During that senior season, however, Oklahoma assistant Bobby Jack Wright kept planting bugs in his ear, as Lewis told OUDaily.com:
“He just kept pushing, and he made me think about some things,” Lewis said. “Every time something bad would happen to Nebraska, he would be on the phone saying, ‘You see that?’”
Even while he was committed to Nebraska, Lewis said OU was always in the back of his mind.
“I committed (to NU) as a junior, and that’s too soon to commit,” Lewis said. “You’re young and you don’t really know what you want.”
But the high-flying Sooners had no plans to deploy Lewis as a power back. He switched back to outside linebacker, redshirted a year, and then blew everybody up.
How did he blow everybody up? Let me count the ways: AP Big XII Defensive Newcomer of the Year, AP Big XII first team, All-Big XII Academic first team, 144 total tackles (breaking Brian Bosworth’s freshman record), 12 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 7 passes defensed and 4 INTs for 108 return yards (!). His performance was a big part of why the Sooners made it to the BCS National Championship Game.
What happened over the next two seasons is statistically interesting. His total tackles (109, 109, 84), TFLs (9.5, 5.5, 4.0), and sacks (1.0, 1.5, 1.0) all declined. OU played 14 games in 2008, 13 games in 2009 and 14 games in 2010, so his rates for all three of those stats declined pretty consistently.
Chart?
Chart.
Quick disclaimer: in order to show all this stuff on the same graph in a meaningful way, “tackles per game” has been divided by ten. Still, you can see quite clearly: from his freshman year to his sophomore year, Travis Lewis’s per-game production of tackles, TFLs, sacks and INTs dramatically declined from his freshman year to his senior year.
But what’s that orange line?
That's his solo-to-assist ratio. As a freshman, it was 0.95; he had more assists than solos. As a senior, it was 1.80; he had nearly twice as many solos as assists. This paints a very clear picture of Lewis’ maturation from a “pile jumper” using his speed to run all over the field and get in on every tackle to a veteran run-stopper. In the numbers, you can see him reading the offense, getting to the right hole and making the play unassisted.
His declining total production may have been partially caused by his situation’s decline; Lewis still led the Sooners in tackles for four straight seasons. Rivals.com even listed him as "one
Nevertheless, his offseason accolades grew a little dimmer from his freshman year to his junior campaign. In 2009 he was named first-team All Big XII by the coaches, but the media tabbed him for their second team. In 2010, he was named second team All-Big XII by both coaches and media. He asked the NFL to assess his draft stock and they gave him that fateful second-round grade.
Lewis decided to return to college, try and get the ring he’d fallen just short of in 2008, and to plant himself firmly in first-round territory. Instead he broke his foot.
As Tulsaworld.com recounts, Lewis broke his sesamoid bone on the first day of padded summer practice—missing all of camp, the first game of the season, and an open date. Despite losing that game, and an entire offseason of training and development, Lewis’s 84 tackles still tied for the highest on the team. He again was named to the coaches’ and the AP’s All-Big XII second team.
He added weight to impress the scale at the combine, but he failed to impress the stopwatch. Remember his “electronically timed 4.34” in high school camps? Five years later, weighing 30 pounds more, he cut a 4.88.
“It’s not about stats sometimes. It’s about how fast you run, how high you can jump.” –Travis Lewis, per NewsOK.com
Indeed it is. Most of all, though, it’s about how fast you run and high you jump while garnering those statistics. What did the experts see in his play?
"Possesses above-average diagnostic skills. Reads keys and reacts quickly to the ball. Takes proper angles with run fits. Can be a quarter count late recognizing and reacting to play-action, though.
Did not see explosive power on tape and possesses just marginal point of attack skills. Will drop head and bury himself into blockers essentially taking himself out of the play and sacrificing gap discipline.
Overall range is just adequate compared with career production (445 tackles). Displays some tightness in hips and can take an extra second to transition when having to make a sudden change of direction. Shows an above-average closing burst once getting pointed in the right direction.
A fundamentally sound and reliable tackler. Does a nice job of bringing his hip through and wrapping up upon contact . . . Generally takes proper angles in pursuit and does a nice job of breaking down in the open field.
Displays very good awareness for targets in his area and for passing lanes. Flashes playmaking ability in coverage and has the ball skills to finish plays and secure INT. He has limitations in man coverage, though. Often overaggressive trying to be physical in man coverage working against RBs and can lose balance. Does not provide much a pass-rusher at this point.”
Read & React: Combines very good instincts with above-average reaction skills . . . Great feel in coverage, sees quarterback and receiver, jumps routes to prevent completion, or at least stop yards after the catch . . . One-man wrecking crew against screens because he sniffs them out and has the quickness to grab the receiver.
Run defense: Tougher between the tackles than many expect. Gap-shooter that grabs backs before they get through the line, also willing to throw his body into the hole to create piles and stands up to blocks to stay in the play. Lacks strength to blow up fullbacks and bulk/length to prevent getting engulfed by better lineman at the second level.
Pass defense: Fluid and quick drop into zone, covers enough ground to be Tampa-Two mike and knows where the markers are. Often arrives at the receiver at the same time as the ball, gives up few yards after the catch . . . Creates turnovers with quick reaction time to bring in tipped balls, closes on balls over the middle or baits quarterbacks intro throwing his directions if they do not seeing his deep drop. Loses size battle to many tight ends, easily pushed away on out routes. Caught looking into backfield occasionally instead of getting to receiver in the flat.
Tackling: As secure and reliable a tackler as you'll see in college football [emphasis added]. Not necessarily explosive, but more physical than a chase-and-drag linebacker.
Pass Rush/Blitz: Works more in space than attacking the backfield, but flashes closing speed and agility to reach passers from the blind side or up the middle before they can escape . . . Takes advantage of large holes to get to the quarterback, but must work on using violent hands to rip off lineman and defeat cut blocks from running backs.
Intangibles: Team captain who leads the team on and off the field with words and by example. Four-year starter for one of the top programs in the country. No known character or off-field issues.
Positives: Tough, productive college linebacker with limited upside. Displays a terrific head for the ball, instinctive and quick to react. Chases the action hard, takes good angles to plays and remains disciplined with assignments. Fluid moving laterally, makes plays out to the sidelines and relatively effective in space. Squares into ballcarriers and wraps up when tackling.
Negatives: Slow moving in reverse and lacks a quick backpedal in coverage. Marginally effective on the blitz. Minimal burst to the action and lacks overall closing speed.
Analysis: Lewis was a terrific college linebacker, but he lacks top size/speed numbers for the NFL. He plays smart football, gives effort on every down and could be a valuable backup in a variety of defensive systems.
Projection: 5-6
Pro Football Weekly graded Lewis a 5.39, which I don't have a rubric for but puts him just inside their Top 100, notably higher than anyone else. Also, check out the bolded bit about the interviews; first I've heard of that.
Positives: Athletic build. Instinctive and active. Light on his feet. Good bend, balance and movement skills. Attacks downhill, shoots gaps and ranges to the perimeter. Shows short-area burst and explosion — posted a 36-inch vertical leap and 10-foot, 2-inch broad jump. Flashes striking ability. Times blitzes. Effective dropping into zone — shows awareness, reactions and ball skills. Is productive, does not come off the field and has special-teams experience. Likes to play and it shows. Productive, four-year starter. Confident, intense and motivated.
Negatives: Shows tightness in his hips when he has to redirect suddenly or break down in space. Average bulk strength — outmuscled between the tackles and gives ground to get off blocks (can improve hand use). Struggles to keep himself clean through clutter. Lacks knock-back power. Needs to bring his feet more consistently as a tackler — tries to rip down ballcarriers with his arms and slips off some tackles. Loses positioning in man coverage — can be a liability assigned to quick backs. Turned off executives in the interview process and character has been questioned.
Summary: Brash, emotional, experienced, highly productive, run-and-hit “Will” linebacker and converted running back with chase speed to be effective covered up. Has starter-caliber ability in 4-3 front if he can learn to use his hands better and earn respect of his teammates.
A shorter, undersized backer who is a bit narrow through the hips, but possesses an athletic looking frame. Displays "plus" instincts inside when asked to read and react to the inside run. Does a nice job staying low when sliding laterally and absolutely explodes downhill when he finds the ball . . . Routinely is able to gain a step, absorb contact and fend off blocks through the play . . . Is only an average tackler, tends to go high into ball carriers and will slip off his fair share of backs. [emphasis added]
Is a natural athlete in space vs. the pass game . . . Doesn't waste much motion when asked to click and close, stays compact with his footwork and generates good closing speed off his frame. Keeps his head on a swivel in zone coverage, feels routes around him and exhibits the fluidity to cleanly open up his hips and run. Exhibits good ball skills when he can make a play on the throw and has a knack for being around the football and coming down with key turnovers. Impression: He's a bit undersized and doesn't tackle as well as you would like inside the box. However, he's a good run and hit backer who plays the run well and will be able to make plays vs. the pass game in the NFL. Looks like a day one starter to me as a 43 backer, either on the weak side or possibly in the middle.
Normally, I'd include New Era Scouting's draft guide. They mocked Lewis in the fifth to the Titans, and ranked him 168th overall, which all fits, but the "strengths" and "weaknesses" section seems to have been the a victim of a publishing whoopsie (they list Lewis as a DE/OLB 'tweener and assess him as a DE).
But you folks know what’s up: none of this matters. It’s all a bunch of hot air from talking heads! There’s only one true way to assess the potential of an NFL prospect: YOUTUBE HIGHLIGHT REELS.
Here's an excellent set of clips from his sophomore season, cut-ups of the 2009 road game at Miami. You can see his excellent instincts and solid tackling in the run game. When he gets into the hole, he makes the tackle. When a guard or tackle (like Jason Fox!) get their hands on him, though, he does struggle to shed the blocks. There's a reverse at 2:00 where he shows outstanding recognition and open-field tackling:
Here's a really, really nice set of "positive" and "negative" cutups from several games in the 2010 season. We see more of the same: a lot of athleticism, great recognition and fluidity in space, a lot of big stops in the hole, and an occasional inability to cut through the wash and get off blocks:
I'm disappointed I couldn't find an old-school “hype video” with intro, music, etc. Still, these clips back up the themes we saw repeated in the expert scouting reports.
Conclusion
This is one of the most interesting Meet the Cubs I’ve ever done. Even given the disappointing senior season, the tailing off of total production, and the poor Combine measurables, Travis Lewis had a monster career at Oklahoma. Moreover, despite the lack of eye-popping tackle stats, his progression from athletic “pile jumper” to two-dimensional, three-down player is obvious from both the numbers and the film.
Lewis doesn't have protypical MLB size, and he doesn't have OLB pass-rush skills. But he has the athleticism and instincts to rotate at OLB early, and the run-stuffing chops to be a Tulloch-esque MLB as he develops. He’ll have very stiff competition from Doug Houge and the yet-to-be-MTC’d linebackers from the word go, but he’s got too much natural talent and too much great play on film against too high of a level of competition to simply wash out at this level.
Kellen Moore is a walking contradiction. Worshipped by some, reviled by others. Hailed as one of the best quarterbacks as the country; left on every NFL team’s 2012 draft board come Saturday night. A player the Lions did not draft getting the Meet the Cubs treatment.
Moore is the latest flashpoint in the ongoing culture war between college football fans, pro football fans, and draftniks. Kellen Moore was—is—a great college quarterback. This is indisputable: He completed 1,157 of 1,658 passes (69.8%) for 14,667 yards (8.85 YpA), 142 TDs and 28 INTs. Moore does not have the physical tools to succeed at the NFL level—and this is as indisputable as such things get. The coexistence of these two indisputable facts generates a whole lot of dispute.
Kellen Moore is a coach’s son; you couldn’t possibly watch a Boise State game or absorb any pre-draft analysis without hearing that. Tom Moore, four-state-title-winning head football coach of Prosser (WA)’s high school for 22 years, stepped down in 2009 to support his sons Kellen and Kirby as they journeyed through Boise State’s college football program.
In Kellen Moore’s edition of Jon Gruden’s QB Camp, they talk about how his father instructed him on proper fundamentals from the beginning. At first blush, this sounds uncomfortably like the Todd Marinovich saga, but Tom Moore sounds like a much less militaristic, much more doting father.
Unfortunately, Moore isn't the prospect Marinovich was, either.
Moore was a two-sport star at Prosser, lettering three times in both football and basketball. He was rated a three-star recruit (No. 31 QB) by Rivals, and a four-star recruit (No. 26 QB) by Scout. He shattered Washington state passing records and was named to every conceivable “____ of the Year” list for Washington prep sports. Moore received three offers: Eastern Washington (a.k.a Jon Kitna’s alma mater), Idaho (offered during Dennis Erickson’s brief second stint there), and Boise State.
Moore redshirted his freshman year.
As a redshirt freshman, it began. He started from Day One and led the Broncos to a 12-1 record. He set the NCAA single-season record for completion percentage by a freshman, was second-team All-WAC, and on just about everybody’s All-Freshman team. He completed 281 of 405 passes (69.4%) for 3,486 yards (8.61 YpA) with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
His sophomore season was more of the same. Moore led the 2009 Broncos to a perfect 14-0 season, finished seventh in Heisman voting, and was first-team All-America according to ESPN.com, SI.com and CBSSports.com. He completed 277 of 431 passes (64.3 percent) for 3,536 yards(8.2 YpA), and a school-record 39 touchdowns. Moore set the NCAA single-season record for lowest interception percentage, with just three of his 431 attempts picked off.
His junior season was more of the same. Moore led the Broncos to a 13-1 record, finished fourth in Heisman voting, and was the first BSU Bronco to be invited to New York for the ceremony. He was also a finalist for the Davey O'Brien and Maxwell awards. He completed 273 of 383 passes (71.3%) for 3,845 yards (10.04 YpA), 35 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
His senior season was more of the same. Moore led the Broncos to a 12-1 record, became the first college quarterback to notch 50 career wins, and was a finalist for the Maxwell award. He left BSU with an NCAA record for career winning percentage (50-3, .943) 2nd all-time in touchdowns (142) and 5th all-time in passing yards (14,667).
So you get it: he is a winner. He wins. He makes great decisions and he throws touchdown passes and he rarely throws incompletions and he doesn't throw interceptions.
Arm strength, mobility, size, etc. – they’re all prerequisites. Many people in Boise don’t understand why Moore’s lack of size is such a problem to pro teams. There are many reasons it’s a problem – durability, pocket passing prowess and the sheer difficulty of designing an offense when the passer can’t see over his linemen, to name a few. It’s not a mere “fun fact” that the only two N.F.L. starting quarterbacks who are not over 6 feet are Michael Vick and Drew Brees. Vick compensates with otherworldly athleticism; Brees compensates with a strong arm and uncanny accuracy. Kellen Moore was accurate in college, but that accuracy won’t translate to the pros because the throwing windows close so quickly. The only quarterbacks who even have a chance at getting a ball through a quick-closing window are those with strong arms.
Kellen Moore's quarterbacking reminds me, intensely, of Kurt Warner's Blue Period. Warner—never blessed with overwhelming tools, an undrafted free agent himself—had much of his passes’ velocity and catchability robbed by a thumb injury. He compensated as best he could with his incredible field vision and understanding of the game.
He’d make lighting-fast reads and heave up wobbling knuckleballs to the middle of nowhere; they’d just so happen to fall right into the arms of wideouts flying to get underneath them. Sometimes it worked, but often it didn’t; Warner was 8-23 as a starter from 2002-2006.
The one thing I’ve heard over and over about Moore is that he’s almost certainly going to have a long post-playing career as a coach. Michael Schottey, on Twitter and elsewhere, has said this repeatedly (and he’s far from the only one). Perhaps the Lions have drafted their future QB coach?
Okay, speculation time is over. Let's hear from the experts about what Kellen Moore's current reality looks like:
"Height-weight-speed: Vastly undersized in terms of overall measurables for the position. However, possesses prototypical hand size (9 1/2). Top-end speed is average."
"Intangibles: A football junkie. Intelligent individual and a well-spoken representative of the program. Possesses a high football IQ Has developed into the unquestioned leader of the team . . . Thrives under pressure and wants the ball in his hand late in the fourth quarter with the game on the line."
"Throws a catchable ball. Displays excellent anticipation and touch with his throws. Very accurate with short-throws and rarely forces targets to adjust to the ball. However, too often falls away with throws which can lead to him missing the mark especially high. Accuracy can also dip when having to drive the ball in tight window down field."
"Arm strength is average at best. Will have issues driving the ball down field and ball can hang in the air with deeper out routes allowing defenders extra time to recover. Bottom line will have to rely on above-average anticipation and timing to be successful at the next level."
Positives: Highly intelligent and has been extremely productive, making very few mental mistakes. Very smart and plays like an offensive coordinator on the field. Extremely accurate with above average ball placement. Puts the ball where he wants and understands where it needs to be. Plays with infectious confidence, allowing his teammates to feed off of his poise and fearlessness. Always keeps his eyes downfield and works through his progressions very quickly, making snap decisions . . . Good short-to-intermediate arm strength with beautiful touch . . . Works hard to prepare and lives in the film room; student of the game and works hard at what he does.
Negatives: Lack of height, measureables and overall size are huge red flags. Looks diminutive in the huddle. Lacks the arm strength to drive the ball downfield to keep defenses honest; throws too many rainbows/soft-tosses and lacks the cannon to zip the ball all over the field and threaten secondaries deep. Only an average athlete and has limited mobility; doesn't have the legs to consistently evade pressure. Funky mechanics, making too many passes off his back foot with his momentum going backwards . . . Gets lazy with his footwork and balance. Gets himself in trouble at times when he rushes his throws and tries to force things; appears to pre-determine a lot of his throws, staring down his targets. Accuracy on passes over 20 yards is very streaky; finesses passer with too much air in his deep throws . . . NFL Comparison: Chase Daniel, New Orleans Saints
Positives: Productive high-percentage thrower on the college level who lacks the physical skills for the NFL. Patient in the pocket, buys as much time as necessary for receivers and waits until the last moment before releasing the ball. Displays a terrific feel for the game, effectively leads the offense and knows where his receivers are on the field. Senses pressure, steps up to avoid it and always finds the open wideout on the field. Possesses a sense of timing on throws, accurate with passes and always gives receivers a chance to make the reception. Throws a catchable ball putting short and intermediate passes where only his receivers can make the reception.
Negatives: Has a short throwing motion and looks like he's pushing the ball. Passes have minimal speed. Lacks a quick release and the ability to immediately get the ball out of his hands. Takes chances on occasion trying to get the ball through tight spots, yet lacks the arm strength to do as much.
Analysis: Moore was a winner on the college level and a tremendous leader on the field who did the little things well. He lacks the size, arm strength and physical skills to start in the NFL yet could effectively be a backup in a West Coast offense.
Projection: 6th
New Era Scouting, via their media guide, ranks Moore as the 15th-best QB prospect and No. 301 overall:
Strengths: Moore has been incredibly productive in a system in college. He throws an accurate ball and has pretty solid touch on it as well. He throws the ball well to open spaces and can lead his receivers well.
Weaknesses: Looking at Moore you would wonder how he throws a football at all. He has to use his entire body to coil up and release a throw to have anything on the throw. He has poor arm strength and when trying to avoid contact it makes his arm strength appear worse than it really is.
Overall: Moore is a developmental quarterback that has to go play in the right system for him and even then it would be hard to see him being anything other than a backup. Currently he is carrying a free agent grade.
Right, so, Kellen Moore is a fantastic quarterback who does everything that points to unfettered success at the NFL level, except OMG LOL HA HA HA WTF HE SUCKS.
There’s only one way to sort this out. Only one authority to whom we can listen. Only one source we can trust to know whether Kellen Moore is a quarterbacking Promethus unbound or, you know, Chase Daniel: YOUTUBE HIGHLIGHT REELS.
This one’s pretty straightforward: just Moore doing his thing against top-level competition. Stands (somewhat) tall against the Oregon pass rush and finds this open man. This is Moore in his element.
Here's a little treat for Lions fans: Moore letting Titus Young do his thing. Moore may not be able to put the hot sauce on a 30-yard out, but he lofted this one a solid fifty yards downfield. No wonder the Lions jumped on Titus last season.
Now, when I talk about YouTube Highlight Reels, this right here is what I am talking about:
This just has it all: killer intro, outstanding graphics, solid music selection, some Xs and Os, PLENTY of hyperbole, and a smorgasbord of clips showing every conceivable strength without getting repetitive. Also, hilarious.
Overall, I agree with Schwartz’s assessment: this is a no-brainer great pick. I wanted the Lions to go for a boom-or-bust guy with protypical physical tools and big question marks, such as Ryan Lindley. But signing a UDFA with flawless mental tools and big physical question marks is a coup.
Kellen Moore may indeed join Chase Daniel, Ken Dorsey, Jason White, and Danny Wuerffel in the parade of college "winners" with major flaws that couldn't get it done in the NFL. Indeed, Moore may not make it out of traning camp.
Had the Lions been the team who bit and spent a mid-round pick, I'd be wailing and gnashing my teeth. But given the Lions were going to bring in a UDFA quarterback as a purely developmental flier, I'm glad they brought in Moore.
I’ve never been to any of the campuses of Copiah-Lincoln Community College. I’ve never stepped foot on their practice field in the heat of August. I have no idea if its facilities are those of a polished football factory, or of a rural high school. Is the grass lush and green, or dusty and scraggly? Is a cajun waterboy at the ready with a filtered backpack, or is there a garden hose with holes in it zip-tied to a chain link fence? I don’t know. I do know that Wesson, Mississippi is a long way from the bright lights of SEC football—and that’s where a huge, cat-quick pass-rusher from Mobile named Nick Fairley expected to be. Fairley told an Alabama TV station:
Juco, it kept me humble. Coming out of high school, everybody is going to the D-I school with a big guy, so everybody knows you. They are going into the big time D-I . . . juco was a great eye-opener and got me level headed and ready to go. So when I got to Auburn, I was ready.
For many players, it’s a long and winding road to the NFL. But for Nick Fairley, it was a long and winding road just from high school to the college of his choice. He was rated as just 3-star DE/DT prospect by both Scout.com and Rivals.com, though my suspicion is that had more to do with his lack of grades than a lack of potential. Clearly, a 6’-4,” 257-pound pass rusher with multiple SEC offers is more than a middle-of-the-road prospect.
Despite strong mutual interest with Auburn, and a verbal commitment, Fairley wasn’t academically able to attend Auburn. After graduating from Lillie B. Williamson high school, he went straight to Copiah-Lincoln, a JUCO which has fed several top prospects to Auburn. After that redshirt year, Fairley terrorized the JUCO competition: he racked up 63 tackles (9.0 per game), 9 TFL (1.3 per game), 28 QB hits (4.0 per game), and 7 sacks (1.0 per game). He also notched two fumble recoveries, one forced fumble, one blocked kick and seven pass breakups.
"I'm very excited to re-commit to Auburn," said Fairley. "I've been waiting on this for a long time, since I went to junior college. Auburn is where I wanted to go out of high school so I decided to stick with them.
"I'm ready to go to Auburn, work hard, get my grades and make an impact."
. . . except it didn't quite work out that way. After recommitting in May of 2008, the Tigers’ 2008 season ended with the resignation of head coach Tommy Tuberville. Having spent a year and a half at Cop-Lin with visions of War Eagles dancing in his head, he didn’t re-open his recruiting. Fairley signed his NLI to attend Auburn on December 17th. However, in January it was discovered that one of his correspondence classes wasn’t completed by the deadline, so Nick had to enroll in late May—missing the spring practices of his sophomore year.
When asked about his unwavering commitment to the Tigers, even after a staff change and the academic goofup, Fairley pointed to the presence of “Coach Rock,” former Auburn standout Tracy Rocker:
“When he was at Auburn, he won the Outland and Lombardi trophies. Not too many defensive linemen have done that. He must know something. He's also been to the (NFL) so he knows what it takes. I would rather get coached by someone that's been there and done it."
Despite missing spring ball—thus being behind his teammates in knowledge of the defense and scheme—Fairley started the Tigers’ first game of 2009, against Louisiana Tech. He had five tackles, a fumble recovery, half a TFL, and 2 QB hits--but also looked every bit as raw as he was. Coach Gene Chizik:
“Being a defensive lineman and starting your first game, things get hairy down there,” Chizik said. “That’s a whole different world down there on the defensive line because it’s so physical. It’s just the nature of the position. Nick played high a little bit, but overall really tried to play physical and tried to play with some effort. I think he falls into the category of we’ve got a long way to go to get him where he needs to be. I think he’s got a chance down the road to be a really good player.”
Fairley would play in all 13 games—and get one more start—his sophomore year. Playing mostly as a reserve, Fairley still notched 28 total tackles, 3.5 TFL, and 1.5 sacks. Impressively, his first career sack (for minus 14 yards) came against Georgia—and he blocked a PAT against Tennessee, maintaining a 13-6 lead right before halftime. He repeated the five-solo-tackle performance of his first game in the last game that season, roughing up Northwestern in a nailbiter of an Outback Bowl.
At this point, it seems kind of ridiculous to recap Fairley’s junior season at Auburn. I’ll just copy and paste from his official bio:
CAREER -- Won 2010 Lombardi Trophy, becoming second player in school history to win the award joining his position coach, Tracy Rocker who won the award in 1988 ... Set AU single-season record of 24.0 TFL's in 2010, setting record against South Carolina in SEC Championship Game ... Also set AU single-season record with 11.5 sacks during junior season, setting record against Oregon in BCS National Championship Game ... Earned Defensive MVP honors of BCS National Championship Game vs. Oregon.
2010 -- Lombardi Award winner (nation's best lineman) ... Nagurski Award finalist ... Associated Press SEC Defensive Player of the Year ... FWAA All-America Team ... Walter Camp All-America Team ... Sporting News First-Team All-America ... SI.com First-Team All-America ... Associated Press First-Team All-America ... CBSSports.com First-Team All-America ... Rivals.com First-Team All-America ... Coaches' First-Team All-SEC ... Associated Press Unanimous First-Team All-SEC ... Phil Steele First-Team All-SEC ... ESPN.com All-SEC ... Outland Trophy semi-finalist ... CBSSports.com Midseason All-America ... Phil Steele's Midseason All-America First-Team ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (11/26-27) ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/23) ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/16) ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/2) ... SEC Defensive Player of the Week (9/13) ... Started all 14 games and totaled 60 tackles with 24.0 TFL's and 11.5 sacks ... Had at least 1.0 TFL in 12 of 14 games and a sack in eight games ... 1st in SEC / 12th in NCAA in sacks (11.5) and 1st in TFL's (3rd in NCAA) (24.0) .
Look, the dude ate people, okay? Nick Fairley subsisted on the flesh, souls, and hearts of opposing offensive linemen. He looked like a man amongst boys, even at the heart of an SEC defense. So, what changed from his sophomore year? What transformed him from a raw, promising prospect to a world-devourer? Fairley told the LA Times that, again, DL coach Tracy Rocker played a huge role:
Tracy Rocker, Auburn's defensive line coach, gets the Tiger's share of credit for fine-tuning Fairley's considerable skill set.
"Coach Rocker flipped a switch to turn on," Fairley said.
This is the most intriguing side of Nick Fairley. For all of the talk of “questions” and “immaturity,” for all of the whispers about his work ethic and his commitment, he has unwavering respect for anyone who’s done it themselves. Tracy Rocker accomplished exactly what Nick Fairley wanted to accomplish, and Rocker was able to get Fairley to play at a dominant level. If only the Lions had someone who could command Fairley’s respect and attention . . .
On whether it concerns him that he'll be part of a three- or four-man rotation at defensive tackle:
"Aww man, playing with Suh is going to be an honor. That guy was the defensive rookie of the year, so to be able to play next to him… I can't wait to get in and pick his brain for the things he did his rookie year."
He did get a chance to speak with Suh shortly thereafter:
On having talked to Suh: “I talked to Suh today and he gave me some great advice; I talked to Kyle Vanden Bosch and all of them guys. I’m really just ready to go and I want to pick their brain … They’re going to give me some great advice so I can come in as a rookie and know what to do.”
On what Suh said to him: “He basically was like, ‘Man, you’ve got be ready to come to work; they’re going to push you and try to get the best out of you, but you’re going to have fun.’ He said that’s one thing that they do here is: have fun and work hard. So I’m ready to come here and get things together.”
I firmly believe that Nick Fairley is walking into the best possible situation. Not only is the Lions’ defensive line one of the most talented position groups in the game, it’s got the strongest culture. Kyle Vanden Bosch sets the bar for effort, intensity, and consistency as high as it will go. Ndamukong Suh is a physical freak and firebreathing monster on the field, a gentle giant with rare understanding off it. Lawrence Jackson is a brilliant young man with a poet’s soul—and a first-round pick’s tools and production. Cliff Avril plays with joy and abandon, but has relentlessly built his body and game up from a third-round OLB ‘tweeter to a prototypical 4-3 rush end. Corey Williams is a naturally big-bodied man who really, really, really can’t wait to get at the quarterback.
Leading them all is position coach Kris Kocurek, whose approach and creativity has drawn raves from players, coaches, and observers alike. Working closely with Kocurek is Gunther Cunningham, who combines a well-earned rep for exacting standards and profane tirades with a genuine love for his players and colleagues deeper than could ever let on in public (even though he lets on in public, too). On top of all that, of course, is Jim Schwartz, The Grandmaster, who drew consistently excellent performance out of notoriously inconsistent talents like Albert Haynesworth and Jevon Kearse.
I don’t want to wax too poetic here—but the Lions have built a truly special unit, a group of players and coaches who will define the identity of this team for years to come. If Nick Fairley wants to get where he says he wants to go, all he’ll have to do is show up in Allen Park and follow his teammates’ lead. If he can stay relentlessly committed to Auburn through the two-year odyssey in between graduating high school and stepping onto campus, he can do that. Frankly, I don’t think his teammates will let him fail. But of course, I’ve written enough about the Lions’ current linemen. What are the experts saying about Nick Fairley?
Positives: Very solid athlete... Good size... Very solid pass rusher... Long arms... Uses his hands well... Quick off the ball... Disruptive... Gets in the backfield... Plays with good leverage... Reasonably good strength... Solid power... Can get penetration... Very solid bull rush... Solid strength at the point of attack... Shoots gaps well... Good arsenal of pass rush moves... Great swim move... Can split and slice through some double teams... Does a good job shedding single blockers and making plays on the ball... Good flexibility and body control... Plays the run well... Does a nice job in pursuit... Actively chases the ball... Makes plays in the backfield versus the run... Stays low... Looks comfortable dropping into short coverage... Good recognition skills... High motor... Plays with intensity... Mean streak... Played through an injured shoulder toward the end of the 2010 season... Tremendous upside... Finished third in the FBS with 24 tackles for loss in 2010... Schematic versatility, could also get looks as 3-4 LDE... Compares to Warren Sapp, Marcus Stroud.
Negatives: Former junior college transfer who started just two games prior to the 2010 season... Can wear down a bit as the game progresses... Will play down to his opponent... Needs to improve lower body strength... Can be engulfed at the point of attack... Questionable work habits... Has taken some undisciplined penalties, and some cheap shots at quarterbacks... Measured in at the combine over an inch shorter and nine pounds lighter than his listed weight, could fall a bit if viewed only as a three-technique tackle who would only appeal to 4-3 teams... Reportedly missed his flight to the combine, missed a team meeting there, and was late for a team interview at his pro day.
Pass rush: Explosive initial burst off the snap. Good flexibility and balance to "get skinny" and penetrate gaps. Uses his hands well to slap away blockers' attempts to get their hands on him. Possesses a rare combination of long arms and quick feet, helping him avoid cut blocks. Good swim move. Locates the ball quickly and has the lateral agility to redirect. Good short-area closing burst. Good effort in pursuit. Surprising speed for a man of his size.
Run defense: Relies on his quickness to penetrate gaps and make plays behind the line of scrimmage more than his strength to hold up at the point of attack. Long, relatively thin limbed for the position and can be knocked off the ball due to his lack of an ideal anchor. Good flexibility to twist through double-teams. Locates the ball quickly and pursues well laterally.
Explosion: Quick burst to penetrate gaps. Can shock his opponent with his quickness, strong initial punch and quick hands to disengage. Has an explosive burst to close when he sees a playmaking opportunity and can make the eye-popping collision without needing much space to gather momentum.
Strength: Good, but not elite strength, especially in his lower body. Has a tendency to come up at the snap and can be pushed back because of it. Possesses very good natural strength, however, including in his core as he can twist through double teams. Very good hand strength to rip through blocks. Good strength for the pull-down and trip-up tackle.
Tackling: Possesses a good closing burst and brings his hips to supply the big hit. Good strength for the drag tackle. Willing to lay out and has good hand-eye coordination to trip up the ballcarrier running away from him.
Intangibles: Former high school basketball player who shows surprisingly quick feet. An ascending talent, but is nonetheless labeled as a player with some true bust potential, as there are concerns about his work ethic. Carries a little bit of extra weight around his middle and is more "country" strong than weight-room defined. Has developed a reputation as a dirty player; repeatedly flagged in 2010 for late hits and there have been instances when he has speared ballcarriers with his helmet, banged into their lower legs purposely and pushed off downed players to lift himself up. One of nine siblings.
SI.com gave him a 3.22, their fourth-highest overall grade:
Positives: Game-impacting defensive lineman whose star is on the rise. Displays great movement skills and an explosive burst to the action. Quickly changes direction and effectively makes plays down the line or chases the action in backside pursuit. Plays with good pad level, fires off the snap with a great first step, and shoots through the gaps up the field. Fast off the edge, effective in pursuit, and makes plays in every direction. Constantly doubled by the opposition yet remains a game changer.
Negatives: Must improve his overall strength. Marginal hand use and displays limited moves getting off blocks. Lacks pure power and can be controlled by single blocker. Mostly a first move lineman that must beat opponents off the snap. Not known as a hard worker in practice.
Analysis: Fairley comes off a career year in which he started the season hot and never let up through Auburn's national title game. He possesses the skills and athleticism to be used as a defensive tackle or two-gap end and has an enormous amount of upside. Fairley will be very productive at the next level if he improves the details of his game and works hard on and off the field.
Positives: Very quick off the ball and disruptive. Has explosive hips and is a violent, head-snapping tackler. Good balance and agility. Has long arms and quick, active hands and knows how to keep defenders off his frame. Times the snap well, throws his hips in the hole and wins one-on-one matchups. Can split the double team. Excellent closing speed — smells blood. Rips off blocks and continually shows up behind the line of scrimmage. Flashed the ability to dominate and take over games, as he did late against LSU and Alabama. Plays with a mean streak and continually seeks to punish quarterbacks (knocked three out of games as a junior) and agitate blockers.
Negatives: Plays too upright with an inconsistent pad level and stalls at the line of scrimmage if he does not win at the snap. Does not play with pop in his hands. Cannot dig his heels in the ground against the double-team — was pancaked vs. Georgia OG Clint Boling. Not a glass eater ideally suited to occupy blocks. Tends to freelance, lose gap integrity and, at times, lose the ball. Not smart or disciplined and brain freezes show up in his play. Lacks power and bulk strength. Is only a one-year producer and has underachiever tendencies — loafs on the backside and takes plays off. Lacks stamina. Plays dirty, seeks cheap shots and has been flagged for foolish, unsportsmanlike penalties. Needs to be pushed and is not a self starter.
Summary: An explosive, finesse three-technique, Fairley could make your draft or break your heart. Showed he could be a dominating force for a national championship team, took over games and could be unblockable in the interior of a "40" front if he stays motivated and uses good technique. However, he will require a very nuanced, demanding positional coach and might need to be limited to 40 snaps per game to maximize his talent. The more highly he is drafted, the greater the likelihood that he will bust, as a big pay day easily could sap his motivation. Compares to Saints 2003 sixth-overall pick Johnathan Sullivan (a bust) and could fizzle out of the league as fast as he arrives if he enters a non-challenging, unstructured environment. Has boom-or-bust potential.
Pass rush: Fairley is the premier one-gap defensive tackle in this year’s class due to his ability shoot the gap and get after the passer. Fairley finished 2010 with 12 sacks, including three in a standout performance against LSU. Most of his big plays come off the swim move. Has quick hands to get his arm over the blocker. Closes in a hurry and with aggression.
Pursuit: Is a player who is almost always on the move toward the ball carrier. Has the athleticism to move all around the line. Despite being somewhat limited in experience, Fairley shows good run/pass recognition. When Fairley plays with a lot of effort, he can move all around the field to make a tackle. But some question if Fairley always gives full effort on every play. As sensational as he is on some plays, Fairley can be completely non-existent on others. It’s an issue that Auburn head coach Gene Chizik brought up early in the season. Fairley showed better effort toward the end the season, however.
Quickness: For player of his size, Fairley has a great burst off the snap. Most of his game is centered around his quickness off the ball. Played basketball in high school and it shows in his foot speed. People will always compare Fairley to Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy and in the quickness category, he’s right there with them. Run defend: Is a long-armed defender who can be disruptive in the run game. Even where the run isn’t coming right at him, Fairley can impact the run game simply by reaching his arms out and rerouting the ball carrier. Does a lot of his work against the run against single blockers. Fairley doesn’t always do well against multiple blockers. Still, he can be an asset against the run by taking up multiple blockers.
Strength: Doesn’t have the kind of strength where he can beat double teams on a consistent basis. Looks like he can get stronger in his lower body. Can get pushed bak too often. Has a frame to add 20 pounds without it having a negative impact on his game.
Tackling: Fairley is a scary tackler. Every time he has room to make a hit, it’s an explosive one. If football doesn’t work for Fairley, his tackling shows he clearly has a future in pro wrestling. He frequently liked to suplex players. Several of Fairley’s tackles could get him fined in the NFL, so it will be interesting to see if he’ll continue his tackling technique at the next level.
Technique: Shows good hand fighting. Uses his hands well to keep blockers out of his pads. Has long arms, which is beneficial to his technique. Doesn’t take false steps that get him out of position.
Is it time? Yes, it's time. It’s more than time. It’s way past time to find out if Nick Fairley will be a boom, or a bust. It’s time to find out if he’ll be the next Warren Sapp or the next Johnathan Sullivan. It’s time to consult the One True Oracle of NFL Success: YouTube highlight reels!
First up, an absolute gem. Here's a high school reel that's just phenomenal. There's no spot shadowing, but just look for the defensive end that's significantly bigger than the defensive tackles, and running faster than the linebackers. He's #90. The best part is around 1:25 when he beats the RT and sacks the quarterback before an unblocked linebacker can get there. No, wait--the BEST part is the MUSIC:
Here's a nice little clip that shows an awesome spin/swim combo sequence at 0:12:
Here's a short film entitled "Fairley Nasty," an ode to Fairley's biggest hits and dirtiest plays throughout his two-year career at Auburn. Of special note are the explosion SF/X laid on top of Ludacris' "Move, B*tch," and Papa Roach's "Last Resort" (!):
Here's Aaron Aloysius not letting me down, providing really nice cutups of Fairley vs. Georgia. This is some proper film right here, and you can see just how frequently, and how hard, he hit A.J. Green that day. I like at 0:33, where the takes on a double-team, anchors, and makes the tackle. Also note 1:50 where he's chop blocked, and shrugs it off.
What stands out to me is Fairley’s body type. Despite being a shade taller and several pounds lighter than Suh, Fairley’s build is completely the opposite. Suh’s upper body is jawdroppingly massive; I’ve said many times that his shoulders are the size of entire hams. From the front of Suh’s chest to the back of his back seems like a distance of nearly three feet. He’s very, very lean through the core but has reasonably thick arms and legs. Fairley, meanwhile, has shockingly thin shoulders and arms for his size; most of his weight is through the middle: he’s big in the britches, thick-thighed, and—while not sloppy fat—has a little fuel tank for his sack machine.
Despite these similar sizes hung on totally different frames, Fairley’s game is almost identical to Suh’s. Similar great first step, similar penetration, similar inside/outside edge rushing ability. He’s not “bad” against the run, but he’s not often going to drop anchor and eat space like Grady Jackson. He plays with an obvious mean streak, and will likely draw some after-the-whistle penalties for crossing the line. He’s too upright at times, and sometimes vacates his lane for the sake of penetration.
Immediately, Fairley projects as a three-tech, just like Suh. However, Suh is a finished product, physically. The only thing he can develop on his frame is adding the gut he doesn’t have—and that would do more harm than good. Fairley, as Rob Rang said above, is “more ‘country’ strong than weight-room defined.” Suh just needs maintain, physically, and focus on execution and technique. But Fairley ought to be able to add significant musculature and strength through NFL conditioning. As he gets up to the “weight class” above Suh, in the 315-325 range, he should evolve into a no-less dominant 1-tech throughout his career.
The comparison I keep seeing is Warren Sapp. Sapp started off as a very similarly built 290-pound penetrating 3-tech, and slowly worked his way up to being a 330-plus-pound 3-4 two-gap DE, before realizing he was better thinner and dropping 50 pounds. I’d hope Fairley could find a happy medium as a two-way 1-tech pushing about 320, very similar to how Corey Williams is built now—only even more explosive than Williams.
Of course, I can't talk about Fairley without talking about the "whispers." I can't write thousands of words about Nick Fairley without addressing the "rumors." Some think he takes plays off. Some think he doesn’t practice hard. Some think he’s too wrapped up in himself, and will put his feet up as soon as he cashes an NFL paycheck. These "whispers," as far as I can tell, are just people repeating and amplifying each other—there’s never a source, named or un-. Whispers become rumors, rumors become facts. It got so bad that some started speculating Fairley might be the target of a smear campaign. Ultimately, Fairley has never been in a lick of trouble off the field, and—excepting his treatment of quarterbacks—he’s well-behaved on it, too.
The concept of the NFL combine is genius and it works great for the coaches / general managers who understand the nature of the beast. Good drafting teams start rumors about prospects that they want to fall to them. Bad drafting teams believe these rumors and play right into the hands of these superior teams. My Golden Rule for the draft assessment is: Listen to everything, believe nothing. What I mean by that is, when you here character rumors, injury concerns, etc, you listen to them but you don’t chalk these up as facts. Instead you do extensive research and find out if these are actual truth based rumors.
Some teams do this, we call those team “playoff” teams. Why? It’s simple, they’re in the playoffs every year because they do the leg work and know fact from fiction. Many NFL teams have become lazy and rely too heavily on the NFL combine. This goes against the first thing I was taught in scouting and that is that your evaluation should be 90% based on game film. When did Nick Fairley get passed by Marcell Dareus in most media draft boards? The answer is after the combine. The game film didn’t change after the combine, but Dareus ran a quick 10 yard split. Who cares, he ran that same speed on the game film that we watched in January, February, March and so on. This shouldn’t make you change your rankings.
CBSsports.com writer Pete Prisco wrote a couple more really nice articles defending Fairley, which ended with a line sure to warm any Lions fan’s heart: “Nick Fairley is the best player in this draft, no matter how many people try to knock him down.” Well, the Lions got the best player in the draft—and Fairley got everything he dreamed about during the long two seasons he spent in junior college. People tried to knock him down, but now it’s his turn to knock people down.
With all of the armchair scouting, mock drafts, media hyperventilation, and everything else that surrounds the NFL draft, there are very few surprises left. This is especially true for hardcore fans: just look through the Mlive.com article comments and forums in March; most of the Lion regulars have their preferred targets picked out through all seven rounds.
“Man Im Bout To Get #313 Tatted on My Chest, and #BringinBackTheBadboys on my Back! Would yall Love me then????????”
It’s amazing, then, that in spotlight of Los Angeles, Young blended into the shadows. At University High School, Young’s rail-thin frame and talented teammates kept him from drawing much attention from big schools, despite being named All-League his sophomore and junior years. But then he attended the USC Nike Camp, and his performance put him on major-school radar—and his unbelievable senior season was too huge for anyone to ignore. As a receiver, Young caught 66 passes for 1,359 and 10 TDs, plus 49 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. As a defensive back, Young had 97 tackles, 11 INTs, 8 PDs and a sack. For good measure, he returned 18 punts for 392 yards and 3 TDs, and 11 kickoffs for 363 and 1 score.
I'm still sending film out right now and I think that could result in even more offers for me. I had a great season and honestly feel I'm one of the top athletes in the country. Schools are just now finding out about me, that's why I'm keeping that last visit open. I want to take all all my trips and then I'll make my decision close to Signing Day."
A few days later, Boise State made an in-home visit. After that visit, Young immediately visited Boise's campus. After that visit, Young immediately committed to Boise State—just six days after telling Rivals he wanted to play it all the way out to the end! It must have seemed like a perfect fit . . . so what happened?
“I was thinking it would be best for him to go someplace else,” [BSU Head Coach Chris] Petersen said.
According to Chadd Cripe at the Idaho Statesman, Young’s impact on the Broncos was immediate. The 2006 team that beat Oklahoma featured three senior wideouts, and Young’s talent and personality turned heads—those of his teammates’, and the media. The spotlight loved Titus, and he loved it right back. The 17-year-old caught a pass in every one of the Broncos’ games that year, and finished third on the team in receptions (44), second in yards (639), and third in TDs (5). Still, he struggled to hold onto the ball, and struggled to maintain perspective.
Young was suspended for the first quarter of the 2007 Hawaii Bowl, yet still fumbled twice in the remainder of the game. Still, that humbling experience wasn’t quite humbling enough. Young tuned out his coaches, put himself first, broke some team rules, and was ultimately suspended for all but three games in 2008. It reached the point where both parties were ready to move on.
“I really just wanted to go home for a while, sit on my couch, lock myself in a cage,” he said. “That’s how I really felt at the time. If I would have ran, I would have been running from my problems. I’ve never been a type to run from a problem. You’ve always got to hit it in the mouth and stay strong and endure and have faith.”
Petersen offered him “one more shot" during the practice sessions for the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, and Titus took it seriously. He remained on the team for the 2009 season, and in spectacular fashion—he finished with 79 catches, 1041 yards, and 1o TDs through the air, plus 15 carries for 138 and 2 on the ground. He was named first-team All-WAC as both a receiver and returner, but that was just the warmup act.
His senior season, Young hauled in 71 balls for a BSU single-season 1,215 yards (that 17.1 YpC!) and 9 TDs. He added 14 carries for 91 yards and a score. He again was named first-team All-WAC, and third team AP All-America. His truncated career at Boise State was still enough to place him #1 all-time in both single-season and career receiving yards.
Young wasn’t done proving himself at Boise State, though. After a disappointing Combine where he cut an official 4.53, Young really needed a great Pro Day performance to assure teams his on-film game speed wasn’t just an illusion generated by WAC competition. Depending on who you ask, Young’s two Pro Day runs averaged somewhere between 4.39 and 4.43, easing the concerns about his timed speed. He dropped no passes, and the National Football Post reported Young successfully boosted his draft stock back into the high second-round/late first-round territory (which, obviously yes). But hey, let's hear it from the scouts themselves:
Positives: Has good but not great speed... Smart player, knows where he is on the field at all times, plays the sidelines well... Runs nice crisp routes, slips well into zone coverage... Quick off the line of scrimmage... has good change of direction ability and cuts well in the open field... Explosive deep threat, gets behind coverage with ease... Dynamic return man, can return both punts and kickoffs in the NFL... Tough to bring down when the ball is in his hands, keeps a low center of gravity and slips through tackles... Elite short area burst, is an absolute terror with the football in his hands... Terrific body control, adjusts well to balls in the air and plays the sidelines well.
Negatives: Very small, would like to see him add some weight to his frame... Ran slower at the combine than most expected... Questionable hands, drops some catchable balls... Looks up field before securing the football... Average run blocker, size limits his ability to be much of a factor in this area... Stats may be inflated due to playing in Boise State's high powered offense against WAC competition... Comes with character concerns, missed most of 2008 due to suspension.
Strengths: Very quick receiver who eats up the cushion out of his breaks and gets on top of the corner in a hurry. Has a solid second gear to get down the field after initial moves and can run away from defenders. Explodes out of his stance with no wasted steps and does a nice job of stemming his routes. Is a sudden athlete who moves seamlessly in and out of his breaks without sacrificing acceleration. Maintains his balance when cutting and keeps his feet under him in his routes. Runs crisp routes to earn consistent separation from defenders and is shifty enough out of his stance to slip press coverage. Has great lateral quickness in the open field and can create on his own after the reception. Sells out to make tough catches and fully extends his body and arms when going over the middle. Possesses strong wrists to snag the ball and hold onto it in traffic. Tracks passes over either shoulder. Understands spacing and will not drift back into coverage. Versatile player who brings added value as both a kick and punt returner due to this combination of straight-line running, toughness and elusiveness.
Weaknesses: Slight, thin frame that may not hold up in the NFL with his playing style. Loses focus and drops catchable passes. Concentration wavers all too often and will look to run upfield before securing the ball. Does not win jump balls often and struggles to out-leap defenders. Can be stymied at the line by physical corners and lacks the strength and drive to be an effective run blocker. Has nice timed speed, but lacks elite ability to burn by defensive backs on a consistent basis. Has a reputation as an egotistical player who can resist coaching.
For the first Lion draftee this season, SI.com lists "Positives"! They graded Young a 2.80, practically equal to Mikel Leshoure:
Positives: Productive college receiver with a consistent game. Fluid releasing off the line and runs sharp routes, quickly getting into breaks and immediately coming back to the ball on exit. Displays terrific focus and concentration and makes the reception away from his frame. Possesses strong hands, showing the ability to snatch passes from the air. Easily adjusts the errant throw, effortlessly makes the reception downfield, and elusive running after the catch. Reads the defense and settles into the open spot on the field. Sneaky fast and finds a way to get behind opponents. Gives effort blocking downfield and gets solid results.
Negatives: More quick than fast. Erratic workout at the combine. Lacks top size and likely to struggle handling jams or battling at the next level.
Analysis: Young was exceptionally productive the past two seasons and turned in a terrific performance at the Senior Bowl in January. He's a prospect who comes to play on game day and should be a productive third receiver while also being an asset on special teams.
Positives: Exceptional burst, acceleration and deep speed to stretch the field vertically. Fluid strider with big-time turnover. Quick-footed to slip the jam. Is sudden in and out of breaks and makes speed cuts smoothly. Very good hands and concentration — tracks the ball well over his shoulder. Outruns angles and can take it the distance. Agile and elusive in the open field. Versatile and highly productive — consistent playmaker as a receiver and kickoff returner.
Negatives:
Has a slight build with short arms and lacks bulk — is not equipped to work inside, and durability could be a considerable issue. Can be outmuscled and does not always come down with the contested catch. Has limited run strength and exposes his frame to some shots. Occasional concentration drop. Soft blocker. Was immature early in his career. Production was slightly inflated by WAC defenses and was rarely challenged by comparably athletic cornerbacks. Did not run through the gauntlet drill at the Combine with any tempo.
Summary: Thinly built, tight-skinned, confident, competitive, explosive deep threat whose loose hips and lateral agility set him apart from generic burners. Versatility increases his value —possesses the vertical speed to scalp a secondary as a vertical “X” receiver, the suddenness and run-after-catch ability to create mismatches from the slot and the burst to pose a threat as a primary kickoff returner. Multifaceted playmaking ability could even push him into the first round, though his slight frame could keep evaluators at bay and shorten the shelf life of his NFL career.
Of course, none of this is why you are here. You are here for the TRUTH. You want to KNOW if Titus Young is bound for the Hall of Fame or the Charles Rogers Failure Valhalla. Fortunately the One True Oracle of NFL Success, YouTube Highlight Reels, loves Titus Young more than any prospect I’ve ever had the pleasure of breaking down for Meet the Cubs. You know a kid is a player when he has HIGH SCHOOL YouTube Highlight Reels, especially one that's such a love letter to the art:
I’m . . . I’m not saying someone who is really into Titus Young is also into video editing, but there’s a treasure trove at YouTube just too big to embed. Here’s a nice collection of straight highlights, followed by a very interesting meta/narrative/trick catch/interview thing that you don’t see every day (which also includes straight highlights). When contrasted to the high school clip above, the difference between who Titus Young was a kid, and who Titus Young is as a man is dramatic, and unmistakable.
Here's a special treat. Aaron Aloysius of Draft Breakdown does some really, really nice videos that spotlight individual prospects throughout individual games, and this one of Young vs. Nevada is a gem:
First of all, the speed thing. Young definitely plays much faster than the WAC opponents, and I believe he’d still be electrifying against AQ conference competition. I got frustrated while watching through these, because it seemed that so much of the running time of each video was Young blowing by everyone to the house—over, and over, and over again . . .
There’s no doubt that Young is a long strider with good top speed, but even given how much of his body is legs, it’s astounding to see how quick his foot speed is, and how naturally he chops his stride short to change direction—and how quickly he digs back in and gets to that gliding, cruising speed. Normally, those types of runners struggle to get in and out of cuts quickly, but as you see above his footspeed and instincts neutralize that tendency.
In my mind, there’s no doubt that if Young applies himself as he did his senior year, he’ll be able to make an immediate impact here. My question is, how does Scott Linehan plan to use him, in combination with Nate Burleson? As the WR Old Mother Hubbard showed us, the Lions desperately need a field stretcher, a playmaker who can get open downfield and break medium routes to the house. He did that in college, over and over and over again—but can he do it in the NFL? Burleson is a hair taller and decidedly thicker; so is he really the natural choice to slide inside while Young plays #2?
From what the scouts above say, Young will actually be better suited for the outside than Burleson, because Burleson has the strength to handle hits and traffic, and mix it up with linebackers, while Young has the speed to get open deep. Young shouldn’t see much press coverage, given all the short- and medium-depth options the Lions have (Burleson, Pettigrew, Sheffler, Best); He’ll simply be asked to fly—and that, he can do. I see Young used right away as the #2 receiver in three-receiver sets . . . and after that, who knows? Maybe the spotlight loves Young even on the biggest stage of all.
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