meet the cubs: brandon pettigrew

Donald Mirelle/Getty Images

Shortly before the draft, I (and many other Lions followers) had had far too much of the relentless speculation over the #1 overall pick, and even of the crazy scenarios surrounding the the Lions' subsequent four picks.  Given the presumptive targets of the first few rounds: middle linebacker, offensive and defensive interior linemen, and cornerback, I decided to analyze the secondary needs, and what players might be available with the Lions' late-round selections.  Since the Lions selected no middle linebackers, interior linemen, or cornerbacks with their first five picks, this piece proved to be prescient in profiling the needs--just wrong on the players selected.  Here's one of the three "archetypes" I profiled:

Finally, I think the Lions could be looking at tight end in the later rounds. Whether or not they surprise everyone and take a TE early, the Lions' depth at tight end needs to be rebuilt. Casey Fitzsimmons hasn't shown any NFL ability since his rookie season, and that was five years ago. Michael Gaines was neither a great blocker nor offensive weapon, and John Owens is gone. Free agent signee Will Heller looks like a pure blocker. It's well known that one of the greatest crutches for a QB is a tight end with great hands, who can get open quick and catch the ball reliably, especially on third down--and whether or not the Lions draft Stafford, the Lions's QBs will need all the crutches they can get. A guy I really hope might be there is N.C. State's Anthony Hill. At 6'-5", 262, Hill's a really big, strong guy with a long frame. He's a great inline blocker, but he's got really nice hands and can get open in traffic. I think the Lions desperately need this kind of TE, a big blocker who can get open and make the catch on 3rd-and-6; move the sticks, over and over and over. I don't think the Lions are really in need of the field stretching, Gates/Winslow type. Johnson and Johnson are both deep threats; there should be plenty of space underneath for a TE like Hill.

Of course, the Lions did indeed "surprise everyone", taking Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew with the 20th overall pick.  Standing  6'-5" tall, and weighing 263 lbs., Pettigrew was far and away the consensus #1 tight end; in fact he was commonly regarded as the only serious tight end prospect available in this draft.  In a tight end class comprised of strictly second-day material, what made Pettigrew stand out amongst the others?  What made him the sole tight end worthy of a first-round pick?

Coming out of Robert E. Lee high school in Tyler, Texas, Scout.com rated Pettigrew as the #13 tight end prospect in the nation, garnering three stars.  He took a redshirt year, but then immediately got onto the field as a freshman.  Playing in all eleven games, and starting nine, Pettigrew mostly made hay as a blocker, but did haul in 11 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown.  His sophomore year, he became the full-time starter.  While still being asked to do little more than block in OSU's kinetic spread offense, he still more than doubled his previous year's statistics: 24 catches, 310 yards, and 4 TDs.  For this, he was named honorable mention All-Big 12.  His Junior year, he continued to improve, finishing third on the team with 35 catches for 540 yards (a 15.4 ypc average!) and 4 TDs. He had his two best performances in two of OSU's biggest games: 8 catches for 87 yards and a score against Texas, and 8 for 85 against Georgia.  He was named first-team All-Big 12.

Expectations were high for his senior year, as he made the preseason watch lists for both the John Mackey Award (for tight ends), and the Rotary Lombardi Award (for LoS players).  However, disappointment was quick.  Pettigrew injured his ankle early in the season, and completely missed four of the first six games.  However, he still managed to post his best single-season reception numbers: 42 catches for 472 yards.  Even with the injury, he was still a John Mackey finalist.  With 112 career receptions, Pettigrew ranks 7th on OSU's all-time list; #1 for tight ends.  He's also ranked 8th for career recieving yards (1,450), and also #1 for tight ends.  He registered a remarkable 216 knockdown blocks per season in his career, and 30 touchdown-resulting blocks.

Now, the definitive authority on a player's potential . . . internet highlight reels:

Brandon Pettigrew - Draft Snapshot - Awesome video clips here

Actually, NFL.com has the best video on Pettigrew, but unfortunately they don't allow for easy embedding.  I urge you to watch the following:

* Combine workout footage

* Interesting NFLN discussion/debate on his draft stock

* "Draft Vignette", which is combine footage + analysis

There isn't much about Pettigrew that I can say that hasn't been said repeatedly in the videos above.  He's a legitimately big-framed athelete who posesses the size, strength, and inclination to blow people up in both the running game and passing game.  He's a natural pass catcher with extremely soft hands, who has surprising speed and agility for someone so big and strong.  He's not a glorified wide reciever, with 4.45 deep speed down the middle.  However, what he is is something more than that: an outstanding two-way player who should never come off the field.  He'll be a weapon in the run game, blowing up holes and sealing off edges.  He'll be a weapon in the passing game, finding space in the middle of the field to move the chains.  He'll be both a crutch and a shield for Matt Stafford, providing critical max-protect help against blitz-heavy teams, and a huge target with soft hands that he can dump it off to when he absolutely must complete a pass.  

Time and time again, when reading about, watching about, or "scouting" Brandon Pettigrew, what I'm seeing and hearing is the same thing over and over and over again: Brandon Pettigrew will step on the field as one of the best two-way tight ends in football, and his potential beyond that is almost unlimited.  He'll never catch 90 balls or 1,100 yards, or 13 TDs, like an Antonio Gates.  However, Brandon Pettigrew just might be the biggest contributing factor to the immediate and long-term success of Matt Stafford--and the Detroit Lions.

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meet the cubs: deandre levy

 
As the Lions went on the clock to begin the 2009 draft, it was indisputable that the their most pressing need was middle linebacker.  Coming off a season where they allowed over 2700 yards rushing, the Lions had a former 6th-round pick (on his fourth roster in four years) atop the run-stuffer depth chart.  The starting-caliber free agents were long since signed, and the 2008 starter--the always-game but barely adequate Paris Lenon--had been allowed to test the free agent waters.  The Lions absolutely had to come out of the 2009 draft with a starting inside linebacker for now, and for the future.

Many observers had pegged the Lions as a possible landing point for Butkus award finalist Rey Maualuga, a 260-pound physical freak from USC, and a paragon of the firey run-stuffer archetype.  Big, fast, strong, and nasty, Rey-Rey seemed to be the perfect solution to the Lions' middle-linebacker problem. When the Lions went on the clock at 1.20, and Maualuga had yet to be picked, many Lions fans high-fived, clinked longnecks, and generallly celebrated the coming of the first defensive game-changer since Before Millen.

When TE Brandon Petitgrew's name was called instead, it was a bit of a shock.  When Maualuga fell all the way to the 2.1, Lions fans picked their cheering up where it had left off.  Surely, now, "Rey-Rey", the next Ray Lewis, was coming to Detroit.  Surely, a mid-first-round prospect, at the most pressing possible need, was a mortal lock to be taken with the Lions' second-round pick.  However, when the card was turned in, it bore the name of Western Michigan safety Louis Delmas.

Consternation amongst Lions fans reached red alert levels.  Was it possible that the Lions, desperately needing a linebacker with legitimate size and speed, passed on two different 260-pound linebackers with sub-4.6 speed three different times?  Knowing that the only other pure middle linebacker prospect good enough to step in and start, OSU's James Laurenitis, wouldn't last until the Lions' next pick at 3.1, the wailing, great lamentation, and gnashing of teeth began in earnest.

When the Lions turned in their next card, everyone was caught off guard when the name of Wisconsin OLB DeAndre Levy was called.  Levy played on the outside at Wisconsin, and even those Lions fans who knew of him knew of him only as the man who broke Joe Paterno's leg:

Wisconsin's official site has already been cleaned of his bio, but there's one pulled from the ESPNDB.  After an 84-tackle (21 TFL), five-sack senior season that saw him named to the first all-Wisconsin team, Scout.com christened Levy a three-star recruit, the #7 overall recruit in Wisconsin, and the 78th-best linebacker recruit in the country.  As most standout Milwaulkeeans do, Levy stayed in-state--turning down Pitt and Indiana to become a Badger.

Levy was not redshirted; he even saw a little game action as a true freshman, racking up 18 tackles in 11 appearances.  He came into his sophomore year as the starter, and didn't disappoint.  He came in fourth on the team in tackles with 50 (7.5 TFL), and six sacks.  He also came up huge in the Badgers' Capital One Bowl victory over Arkansas; he snagged an interception, and had three tackles. As a junior, he took another leap forward.  He wrapped up 70 tackles. 10 of which went for losses.  He was also named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week for his incredible performance against Indiana: eight tackles, a sack, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.  Finally, in his senior year, he came in second on the team in tackles with a career-high 73.  His 9.5 TFLs led the team, and his 6.0 sacks tied for the team lead.  For this, the 6'-2", 236-pound Levy was named honorable mention all-Big Ten.

So, why did the Lions draft him?  Already well set at both outside linebacker positions, and completely bereft of talent in the middle, this looked like an awful selection.  Quick Googling revealed Levy's tendencies: an extremely quick and fast backer with NFL size, at his best when running downhill and laying big hits on people; at his worst in coverage.  His natural skill set didn't make him much of an NFL strong-side linebacker.

However, word quickly got out that the Lions had no intention of using him as a strong-side linebacker.  To Lions' fans' continuing chagrin, the Lions had passed up on several pure inside 'backers--then drafted a SAM with the intention of converting him to a MIKE.  Isn't this the folly that the Lions have indulged in time and time again?  From Barrett Green to Teddy Lehman to Jordon Dizon, the Lions have frequently tried converting natural college strong-siders into pro MLBs.  Usually the result has been a fiesty-but-hopelessly-overmatched 220-pound MLB trying to bring down running backs no smaller than he is.  However, Levy is no 220-pounder.  While he lacks the bestial 250-plus-pound frame Lions fans were hoping to see, he has a couple inches and about 20 pounds on the Lehmans and Dizons of the world.

So, we know what the Lions fans were hoping for, but what were the Lions' coaches and front office looking for?  Jim Schwartz, at USC's Pro Day:

"We're going to need a big thumper," Schwartz admitted Sunday after practice. "I mean, a strong thumper in the middle for base defense. I don't want to put height and weights (on it) but a big, strong, physical player that can play between the tackles, that can take on offensive guards.  . . . we've dealt with a lot of those situations before (at Tennessee).  I think No. 1 on his job description has got to be (as a) heavy-handed, inside run defender that can take on guards, that can fill fullbacks (and) that can bring that kind of run-stopping attitude to the defense."

After the draft, he was asked to give his thoughts on Levy as that "thumper":

"Physically, he fits there.  Again, I want to caution that until we get mouthpieces and shoulder pads and those kinds of things and you're taking on fullbacks live, you have a hard time completing that evaluation. But drill work and athletically, hitting the sleds and those kinds of things, he looks like he's right at home there.  When he strikes you, he knocks people back.  You don't really worry about the weight there as much as the impact that he does when he hits. You want guys who can build explosion through speed and he has that 4.4, 4.5 type speed and he's able to create some collisions."

Indeed.  To that most exaustive, complete, and impartial scouting resource: the internet highlight reel!

Draft Preview: DeAndre Levy - The best free videos are right here

As always, there are some very encouraging things on these clips (click for a longer, non-embeddable video).  There is, as Coach Schwartz said, a snap-back to his hits; his initial pop is great.  I also love his relentless pursuit of all ball carriers; he absolutely never gives up on a play.  Whether or not he makes the initial hit, he seems to have a knack for ending up helping in the takedown.  This leads me to what doesn't excite me: the occasionally-poor angles he takes exacerbate his lack of overpowering size and strength.  If he initially tries to fill the wrong lane, or overpursues, his speed gets him back to the ballcarrier-- but he can't take him down without help.  For what it's worth, Levy came into Wisconsin weighing 212 pounds; according to him he's already up to 238 and wants to go into training camp at 240.  240 pounds is definitely big enough to play in the middle; he'll have about an inch and five pounds over outgoing starter Paris Lenon--and while Lenon is quick, he is not 4.56 quick, as Levy is.  Schwartz says that he builds force through speed--and while physics says that's possible, all that momentum has to hit square, the first time.  It will be Levy and Cunningham's job to make sure he pulls that off, down after down.

As it turns out, the wailing and lamentation were all for naught--not only does Levy possess in great quantities the qualities that Cunningham and Schwartz are looking for in their linebackers, but the Lions went and signed former Steelers inside linebacker Larry Foote.  Foote, a stalwart of two Pittsburgh championship teams, is a legit NFL middle linebacker.  His forte is two-down run stuffing, and he'll provide an instant--and dramatic--upgrade over anyone else on the roster.  His downhill, attacking style--combined with his veteran savvy, effusive love of his native Detroit, and extremely vocal leadership in the huddle is exactly what the Lions wanted and needed.  For one year--by Foote's request, the length of his deal--DeAndre Levy will get to see exactly what the Lions need him to be for 2010 and beyond.   Oh, and Foote's size?  6'-1", 240 pounds.

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meet the cubs: sammie lee hill

Easily the most interesting prospect the Lions drafted, the selection of Stillman DT Sammie Lee Hill sent Lions fans into a Tweeting frenzy: Who was this guy?  A DT?  Sweet!  But, from a DII school?  Along with everyone else, I started scouring the Internet for information.  He's 270?  290?  300?  320?  330?  I saw all of those weights, and more, listed for him at various websites, in those first few minutes after the selection.  It seemed like there was practically no real information on this cat . . . was he a colossal reach, or a brilliant off-the-radar pickup?

With a little more Google-fu, I started stumbling upon article after article calling the 6'-4", 328-pound Hill one of the best of the small-school prospects.  Website after website saying he's a raw talent quickly moving up the draft boards.  An interview where, in between "yes, sir"s and "no, sir"s, he tells the story of a time when he helped save a man from a burning building.  And in all of them, I saw one word over and over and over: "raw".

Not heavily recruited out of tiny West Blocton, Alabama, Hill went to the best school that offered him a full ride scholarship: tiny Stillman College.  In order to leverage his outstanding size and athleticism, Hill was actually played on the outside, at DE.  This prevented opponents from double-teaming him--or even running the ball toward his side of the field.  As he told the Tuscaloosa News:

"I learned a little bit at Stillman, but I was just bigger than everyone else," he said. "It was just a man amongst boys. They didn't really know how to teach me. I didn't get a lot of teaching. I just went out there and played how I know how to play."

In both his junior and senior years, he was named first-team All-SAIC--and that senior year, led the SAIC in sacks and tackles for loss.  He was invited to the East-West Shrine Game--which could have really spotlighted his ability--but he tweaked a hamstring, preventing him from really showing his stuff.  Still, it got him on the radar.  When he was allowed to work out at Alabama's Pro Day, Lions DL coach Bob Karmelowicz got the chance to personally put him through drills.  This allowed the Lions to avoid bringing him in for a private workout, thereby keeping their interest in him quiet.  When the Lions moved back out of the first pick in the third round, they added the 15th pick in the fourth--the perfect place to grab a risk/reward pick like Hill, who many sites had graded as a third-round selection.

Many fans are already pencilling in Hill as a starter, as if Grady Jackson is the only other defensive tackle on the roster.  The thing to remember is that one word: RAW.  Sammie Hill is a naturally big and athletic man, but that's it.  He's not an NFL defensive tackle; he's not even really a DI defensive tackle.  He's essentially a blank slate in terms of technique; far closer to Ikaika Alama-Francis than B. J. Raji.  While it's true that Hill's a rare physical specimen, "Five-O" is, too.  Whether that raw potential is ever forged into the real impact player Sammie Hill could become depends equally upon Hill and the Lions' defensive staff.

The outlook for now is that Hill will get a chance, like everyone else on the roster, to prove he's got it.  Then, he'll likely serve as Jackson's understudy while Darby and Fluellen rotate at the three-technique spot.  I imagine we'll see more of Hill on a rotational basis late in the year, as the losses start mounting and Jackson starts to wear down.  2010 is where we'll really start to see Hill either command some playing time--or not.

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meet the cubs: aaron brown

When the Lions drafted TCU running back Aaron Brown in the sixth round, there was quite a bit of consternation.  Given the third-round pick of Penn State WR Derrick Williams, and the presence on the roster of pass-catching/third-down/kick-return RBs Maurce Morris, Aveion Caseon, and (at the time) Brian Calhoun, it seemed like the 6'-1", 196-pound Brown would be lucky to make the roster.  Any pick spent on a longshot to make an 0-16 team had to be seen as a pick wasted . . .

After some research, it looks as though there are deeper concerns about Brown than the depth chart.  In high school, Brown was suspended for his senior year following a "graffiti incident".  Even more worrying was his senior year in college: a three-game suspension for "violating school policy".  I haven't been able to discover the exact nature of this infraction--and apparently, this was by the design of TCU coach Gary Patterson.   The fact that Brown's official bio doesn't list any of his accomplishments for his entire senior season is either a grave oversight, or an intentional wiping of the history books.  Since this is being characterized as a 'violation of school policy', I'm willing to bet that it's something analagous to the old 'violation of team rules' line.  That usually means a discipline problem like a fight, or was caught excessively drinking/smoking weed/etc.  Alternatively, we could be looking at an academic problem like cheating on a test, or skipping too many classes.  TCU, apparently, is notoriously tight-lipped about issues like this, so apparently no one has any information.  Beyond that, there are some mild injury concerns, like an ankle injury shortening his junior season.

Still, there are no doubts that Brown is a talented athlete.  Rivals didn't have him listed as a high school recruit, but he was a track star; he cut a 10.45 100-meter dash time in 2004.  According to most scouting reports, he plays a bit like that too: extremely quick and fast--but too upright, and doesn't maintain his speed through cuts well.  By all reports, he has outstanding hands (at least one team, the Cowboys, has worked him out as a wide reciever).  For what it's worth, he seemed to headline every "How Was This Guy Not Invited To The Combine?" list.  

He made an instant impact as a freshman, blowing up Utah for 163 yards on 17 carries on a nationally-televised Thursday night game.  He ended the season with 758 rushing yards--and the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year award.  His sophomore season was his coming out party; with 801 rushing yards, 9 TDs, and 34 receptions, he was named second team All-Conference.  Going into 2007, it looked like Brown was ready to explode.  Named the Preseason Mountain West Player of the year, Brown instead struggled with various nicks and bruises all year long.  Finally, Brown tweaked an ankle against UNLV in the second-to-last regular season game.  This, combined with TCU's unconventional ground attack, meant Brown only had 107 carries to work with--but managed to crank out 490 yards anyway.  Adding in his 24 receptions and his kick returns, Brown managed to eke out 995 all-purpose yards on the season.  Finally came his senior year and the Mystery Suspension; by the time Brown got on the field, he was rusty, and fighting for touches with his backup Joseph Turner, as well as the Horned Frog's athletic quarterback, Andy Dalton.  Brown, however, used his last game to make a statement.  Facing Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl, he rushed for 102 yards on just 14 carries (7.2 ypc), including a 16-yard TD run that put the Frogs on the board just before halftime, keeping their hopes alive.  TCU used the momentum to come out rolling in the second half, en route to a 17-16 upset of the ninth-ranked Broncos.

There isn't much video out there of Brown, but I did unearth a few clips, mixed in with other TCU highlights:

Brown's offered the media a few blurbs about the vibe he got from the Lions in pre-draft workouts:

"I visited with Sam Gash, the running backs coach, and some of the player personnel guys and they made me feel a lot more welcome than a lot of teams did," Brown said. "I felt good about my experience there. There was a lot of hands-on work."

He also addressed the character concerns:

"I'm not the same person I was in high school or college," he said. "I talked to the Lions about all of that and they know that I'm remorseful for the things I did wrong."

The Grandmaster, in defense of the pick:

“He averaged almost 32 yards a kickoff,” said Schwartz. “That brought big value with Aaron Brown.  At that point, that was who we liked,” he said. “Let me say this: everybody we drafted, we liked and we saw a role for. So it wasn’t like we were just drafting just blindly to take guys. But I thought we did a really good job of balancing high-rated players with how we were going to use them.”

With that quote, and the release of Brian Calhoun coming immediately after rookie minicamp, Brown's role is clear: there's an opportunity for him on the roster--but in order to make the most of it, he must immediately make an impact in the return game.  The rest of the stuff: third-down back, slot receiver, etc., that can all come later.  But if Aaron Brown is going to prove he belongs in the NFL, and prove the combine scouts wrong for snubbing him, he has to hit home runs in the kick and punt return game.  The Lord knows the Lions need them.

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meet the cubs: lydon murtha

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Lydon Murtha, Nebraska OT: the first of three picks in the seventh round, huge-framed (6'-7", 315) Lydon Murtha was a significant contributor at right tackle from day one.  A massive kid coming out of Minnesota, Lydon was a Rivals four-star, and Tom Lemming at ESPN had him as ranked as his class's #1 overall OT recruit, nationwide.   His official bio reveals how hard it is to write bios for players that don't generate statistics, but reading it definitely gives a sense of his career.  Murtha was going to play right away at Nebraska, but a smattering of injuries in spring ball and training camp got him a redshirt year.  As a redshirt frosh, he saw action in nine games, and was pressed into service for three starts at left tackle, due to an injury to the starter.  His sophomore year, he played every game, and again started three games at left tackle.  Finally, he got his chance to start in his junior season, starting this time at right tackle for the first eight games, until an injury forced him to the sidelines for the last four games.  Still, he made the Honorable Mention All-Big 12 list, and was also named to the Academic All-Big 12 first team.  His senior year, unfortunately, was a clone of his junior year.  He punished people from the right side for eight games--missing the first two and last two--and got another round of Honorable Mentions for his trouble.

There is no doubt that this kid has an NFL body:

Scott Boehm/Getty Images

Seriously, the guy is 6'-7", 315, and looks like he could add another 30 pounds of weight without even showing it.  At the combine, he led all offensive linemen with both his 4.89 40 time, and his 4.34 short shuttle.  Allow me to repeat that for emphasis: Lydon Murtha ran a 4.89 40  and 4.34 short shuttle at the combine.  These times are nearly identical to James Laurenitis', except Lydon is half a foot taller and 70 pounds heavier.  There's absolutely no doubt that physically, Murtha looks like a franchise tackle in the making.  He's got all the size, all the speed, all the agility.   The problem, of course, was right there in the bio: Murtha's been unable to stay healthy.  His senior year it was first a staph infection, then a sprained foot.  In 2007 it was a different foot injury.  In 2005 it was a bruised calf, a hamstring, and a shoulder . . . everything I've read says the same thing: the kid is a fine tackle when healthy, but there have been just enough nagging injuries to make you worry if he'll stay healthy.  The other issue is productivity.  He's been quite good when healthy, but not  the dominant force you'd expect given his size.  You can see it in how he was moved between right and left tackle . . . if he was unreservedly amazing, he'd have been placed at LT and left there.

Nevertheless, what expert analysis I've read says they can't believe he was there for the Lions in the mid-seventh.  Here's an absolutely OUTSTANDING video breakdown of Murtha's skill set, as shown in predraft camps, practices, and the combine:

OT Lydon Murtha - Draft Video Profile - The funniest videos clips are here

I think that tells you everything you need to know.  I truly believe that this kid has the ability to be a quality starter in the NFL--it's up to Murtha himself, as the video says.  However, it's also up to the Lions' coaching staff to properly build, groom, and motivate this young man so that he can become the player he was born with the potential to be.  

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meet the cubs: zack follett

Zack Follett, California LB: In researching this 6'-1", 238-pound spark plug, it quickly became obvious: Zach Follett is going to be the next inductee into the Lions Fan Hall of Fame.  Players like David Kircus, Scotty Anderson, Casey Fitzsimmons, David "Blue" Adams, Greg Blue, and Buster Davis have been drafted late (or signed as a UFA) by the Lions, made a big play or two in training camp or preseason, and become cult heroes--often, with fans insisting that these practice squadders and/or bench riders would be immediate upgrades over the current starters, if only they were given the opportunity.  Zack Follett perfectly fits this profile; I have no doubt we'll be seeing Follett jerseys in the stands sooner rather than later.

Follett's official bio tells the story: Follett's a wrecking ball of a linebacker.  Coming in as a four-star recruit, Follett was ranked by Rivals as the eleventh-best inside linebacker in the nation (Maualuga was #1, Laurenitis was #28).  As an interesting side note, during four years at Cal, Follett apparently shrunk an inch and lost a step.  You gotta love the recruiting racket . . . Anyway, unlike Dan Gronkowski, Follett was not a self-made player.  Gronkowski was recruited by nobody--at least, not as a quarterback--then switched positions, and through sheer brains and strength, played his way into some playing time.  Follett, however, was a highly touted recruit, and Cal didn't bother redshirting him--Follett was expected to contribute immediately, and did.  

As a true freshman, Follett garnered 32 tackles and two sacks.  He saw action in every game, came up hugein Cal's bowl game, and was named to Rivals' Freshman All-America first team.  His sophomore year, he only started one game--yet lead the team in tackles for loss (12.5), tied for the team lead in sacks (5.5), led the Pac-10 in forced fumbles (4),  had 62 total tackles, and was honorable mention All-Pac 10.  Again, this is all coming off the bench.  In his only start, he had 10 of those tackles, three for loss, a sack, and a forced fumble (returned by another Bear for a TD).  As a junior, he was second-team All-Pac 10, again with 12.5 TFL and 5.5 sacks, plus 64 total tackles.  This, despite missing part of one game and all of two more with a neck stinger--thanks to an aggravation of a bulging neck disc discovered in high school.  Finally, came his senior year, where the Bears switched to a 3-4, partly to maximize Follett's abilities.  Here's a great interview with Follett immediately prior to his senior year:

"The 3-4 defense is really going to increase my role," Follett said. "Last year, I was eating up blocks when I played outside. We tried different schemes to give me the chance to pressure the quarterback, but now with the 3-4, it's inevitable that I'll have my chances to go after the passer and go off the edge for sacks. I had 5.5 sacks the last two years, but that should be two games now with this defense. Anything less than double digits this season will be a disappointment."

Follett was anything but a disappointment in 2008, finishing fourth in the Pac-10 with 10.5 sacks.  He also led the Pac-10 in tackles for loss (23) and forced fumbles (5).  He was named first-team All Pac-10 (a conference that includes USC and their three-headed-monster LB corps!).  He was also MVP of the Emerald Bowl after racking up 9 tackles (8 solo), four of them for losses (-33 yards).  That also includes two sacks, one of which forced a fumble.

Follett has just enough size and more than enough speed to play 4-3 middle linebacker--but his downhill, attacking style is best suited for a blitzing 4-3 OLB, or basically any of the four 3-4 linebacker spots.  He's at his best when he can tee off on runners and quarterbacks--get in a lane, come flying up it, and absolutely level fools.  What do I mean by "level fools"?  I mean this:

Enough said.  Now, what did we see in that montage?  We saw a defender get into the backfield--over, and over, and over again.  We saw him pursue, catch, hit, and bring down quarterbacks and running backs alike.  We saw suddenness, burst, good tackling technique, and good strength.  Now, is this guy a complete linebacker?  No.  Can he line up over an NFL tight end and smother him with impeccable coverage?  Probably not.  Does he have the ideal size for an NFL run-stuffer?  Definitely not.  For those hoping for an immediate starting middle linebacker, you will have to look elsewhere.  Thanks to the Lions' great trade for Julian Peterson, Follett won't push for starting time on the outside, either.  But, does he have a place on the roster?  Sure.  Spake the Grandmaster:

“We drafted a good football player that was productive and, at that point, (he) was on the board too long. He’s extremely productive. I guess the best words you’d describe him are ‘good football player.’ (He’s) versatile, he’s played inside, he’s played outside, even lines up as a pass rusher with his hand in the dirt.”

And how does the young man himself see his role?

"His master plan for making the Lions' roster is to 'go out on kickoff and blow some guys up'-- let the pads do the talking, the same way he got himself noticed a few years ago as the new kid in the Cal program. 

'You've just got to be on the field to make a play,' he says. 'I'm gonna find a way to get on the field whether I'm starting or I'm on special teams. I'm gonna keep flying around trying to make a name for myself.'"

I have no doubt he'll be able to do exactly that. In most of my research, the first thing that comes up is amazement that this kid was available in the seventh round.  Apparently the neck stinger that limited him in 2007 scared enough LB-hungry teams to engender a big fall--still, that is the kind of risk you want to take with a seventh-round pick.  If it pans out, you have an immediate special teams monster, a situational contributor by the end of the season, and a significant piece of the defense from there forward.  You talk about finding value in the late rounds of the draft; you're talking about a Zack Follett.

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on the draft

This morning, I woke up to the sounds of my alarm failing to go off.  The morning sun was warming through the miniblinds, the cats were pawing at the basement door, and my eldest child was sneaking around the house doing things she knows she's not allowed to do.  Typically, waking up like this means I'm already well past late for work, and the day will be an exercise in futility and frustration, of running behind and losing my head.  Today, however?  Today was different.

It's spring.  The sun comes up earlier these days--and with it, come the early rays and the chirping birds, the joggers and the potholes.  Today was the first weekday where I made it all the way out to the car without ever once considering wearing a coat.  In fact, I had to go back into the house to fetch my money clip from said coat--and opted to leave the coat right where it sat.

I twisted the keys in the ignition, and as my mount quickly purred to life, it hit me: four months ago, nearly to the day, I started this blog.  In some ways, that day was the complete opposite of today--yet in other ways, it was exactly the same.

"When I walked out the door into the early morning darkness, the wind was a stinging, bitter smack to the face. After a warm and lovely holiday weekend, where most of the near-foot of accumulated snow and ice melted off, last night Winter came roaring back. A silvery sheen of frost and ice glazed over everything, including my car. After cranking the engine, I began the routine: hacking, scraping, brushing, and scouring the exterior glass--while my car desperately tried to maintain a series of small fires inside a solid metal block chilled to a temperature well below freezing. With the grueling work done, I collapsed into the driver's seat. It was then that the voice on the local sports talk radio station smacked me in the face with an even colder reality: I'm a Lions fan."

At that moment, it was the morning after a landmark in Lions (and NFL) history.  It was the nadir; it was rock bottom.  The edges of the winter wind cut and sliced my skin like thorns, yet didn't hurt half as badly as the 0-16 knife in my chest.  That bitter, freezing day smacked me in the face, and then kicked me in the stomach.  This morning, however?  It was the morning after the new start.  There were buds on the trees, daffodils already in bloom.  This morning was the first day of the spring, the first day of the new Lions.  Then first day of the Matt Stafford era.

Yes, the Matt Stafford era.  The Lions chose to make Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford the face of the Lions for at least the next four years--and paid him at least $41.2 million do it.  On a team with few--possibly no--veteran leaders, Stafford will look to fill the huge power vacuum in the huddle.  He'll also need to fill the huge performance vacuum under center.  The Lions have not had consistently good quarterback play . . . well, ever.   But beyond that, Stafford and the Lions are now incontrovertably bound together.  From this day forward, no matter who you wanted the Lions to draft #1 overall, no matter how you felt about the contract, no matter what you think about Stafford's chances at the next level: if you are a Lions fan you will root for this kid's success with everything you have.  If he succeeds, the Lions will be contenders every single year for the next decade or more.  If he fails, the Lions might well have to have yet another regime change at the top, and we'll all be in for another six more years of winter.

As far as the rest of the draft goes, the Lions did what they said they would do: they drafted for talent, not need.  They took the highest-rated player on their board, except for when they made (brilliant) trades back for more picks.  They drafted like they had a clean sheet of paper from which to start, and--especially on day one--they took the rest of the NFL to school on how drafting the best players is done.  They didn't draft to reach for 2009 needs--they knew that the Week 1 roster for 2009 was going to have holes in it no matter who they drafted this weekend.  Most importantly, they took players that everyone agreed on.  The scouts, coaches, and front office folks came together to draft players that will never be anyone's pet project or sacred cow.  These players will all get plenty of opportunity to compete, and all will ultimately be judged by their efforts when granted those opprtunities.  As I've already said, in two or three years, when other teams' fans review other teams' 2009 drafts, these Lions are going to be named over and over and over as the players those other teams "could have had".  To me, that alone speaks volumes about the change in direction, change in execution, and change in the weather.  That's not to say we won't see stormy days--we will, and sooner rather than later.  But it comes down to this, what I said four months ago:

"I'm a fan. I was born a fan, and I will die a fan. The hooting and derision of the American sports culture has set my resolve. I'm sick of getting snickers on the football-y corners of the Internet. I'm sick of getting reaction takes when I wear Lions gear around town. I've thought about starting this blog for years, but this morning I knew that today was the day. I've pulled my hood tight, I've loaded up the sled with wood, and I've got fuel and spark to spare. I'm going to reclaim my Lions pride. I'm going to fan that little blue flame into the great big bonfire it ought to be, and nobody's going to be prouder than me when thousands are once again carrying torches to rally behind this team."

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day two

One of the worst things about this wretched 4:00 pm start time for Day One is that there's no real layoff time before Day Two to pen breathless, pointless manifestoes.  I'll go in-depth later tonight and tomorrow, but for right now I'll just say that the Lions truly did draft for talent instead of need, and that they got the best players in the draft at three separate positions.  They didn't just go for the "grocery list" and take the best-available player in order of positional need (which is how we ended up with Jordon Dizon in the second round).  When people review this draft in three years, the Lions' players will be on other teams' "could have had" list. 

Moving along to Day Two, who's still out there?  As we remember from last year, the #1 pick on the second day is quite valuable, because the Lions have all night to review their board, review their needs, explore potential trades, etc.  Some players I think the Lions should look hard today:

* CB/KR Victor "Macho" Harris.  A physical corner with good size, good instincts, and excellent return skills.  

* WR Brandon Gibson.  A big, quick target with soft hands and excellent body control, Gibson's a low-first, high-second round talent who was trapped on a rotten Washington State team last year.  Great slot WR prospect, also has return experience.

* OG Kent Urbik.  The road-grader Jeff Backus has never had next to him.

* MLB  Robert Henson Jason Phillips, TCU.  Might make everyone forget about Little Animal.

A sharp-eyed reader also saw that Vanderbilt CB D.J. Moore is still out there, and he'd be an excellent value here in the third.

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the mock results

Of course, I'll have PLENTY of stuff coming about the events of the day.  Those of you who followed me @lionsinwinter got a lot of my first-take reactions.  The mock results (with my final mock, as I turned it in, correct picks bolded) were as such:

1 (Lions) Matthew Stafford QB Georgia 

2 (Rams) Jason Smith OT Baylor 

3 (Chiefs) Tyson Jackson DE LSU

4 (Seahawks) Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest

5 (Browns) Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech

6 (Bengals) Andre Smith OT Alabama

7 (Raiders) Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri 

8 (???) Mark Sanchez QB Southern California 

9 (Packers) B.J. Raji DT Boston College

10 (49ers) Eugene Monroe OT Virginia

11 (Bills) Brian Orakpo DE Texas

12 (Broncos) Aaron Maybin DE Penn State

13 (Redskins) Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State

Sanchez @ #5 definitely hurt; still, if the Raiders had not gone completely Al Davis and/or the Jags had taken Crabtree, it wouldn't have stung much. As it was, with the Raiders taking Heyward-Bey a round early, the Jags then snatching up Monroe, and then the Bills passing on Orakpo, My TV turned into a 4-way tie for second place. I lost all the coin tosses, and ended up with the fifth-place prize package. I mean, tickets to both Lions preseason games, an MSU ballcap and T-shirt, a tape measure, a cordless screwdriver, and a drill bit set is nice and everything . . . but the second-place package was a grill, a custom Lions jersey, the same tickets, etc. . . . I was a pick or two away from my TV.

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the big day

I'm going to be all over Twitter today, both reading the news and responding to it.  However, I'll be first tailgating for the Green and White game, and then heading out to a local watering hole for the mock draft contest, so I won't be blogging anything until late tonight.  Follow me on Twitter today @lionsinwinter!

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daddy needs a new plasma TV

So it's Stafford--sealed, and soon-to-be delivered (no word on actual signing yet).  The tears have been shed, the teeth have been gnashed . . . please folks, as a personal plea from me to all you fans out there--cheer for this kid.  Support him, root for him, and wish him well.  His fate is now synonymous with the Lions's.

Now, for something a little different.  Tomorrow, I'm participating in a mock draft contest sponsored by a local radio station.  The deal is that I'm to project the first 12 players selected in the draft--teams don't matter, just slots.  Now, I have to get the picks right, so I'm not throwing any big curveballs to make a point or look clever.  I'm tyring to prognosticate, not proselytize.  To the picks:

1 (Lions) Matthew Stafford QB Georgia

2 (Rams) Jason Smith OT Baylor

3 (Chiefs) Tyson Jackson DE LSU

4 (Seahawks)  Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech

5 (Browns)  Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest

6 (Bengals) Eugene Monroe OT Virginia

7 (Raiders) Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri

8 (???)  Mark Sanchez QB Southern California

9 (Packers) B.J. Raji DT Boston College

10 (49ers) Brian Orakpo DE Texas

11 (Bills) Andre Smith OT Alabama

12 (Broncos) Aaron Maybin LB Penn State

It's long been thought that Curry was going to be the #3, but everything that I've been reading that sounds  smart says that Pioli won't invest that much in the linebackers; he put all his money and top picks up front (think Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, etc.).  I've frequently heard that Jackson's a top ten, even top five guy that hasn't been getting the mocker love because 3-4 DE isn't a glamour position.  Sanchez is a total wild card.  I could buy him going at #2 if the tackle need wasn't so great.  I could EASILY buy the Chiefs moving out of #3 so someone could come and get Sanchez in front of the 'Hawks, but who would move up that far?  Peter King says the 'Hawks Sanchez mojo is a smokescreen, too, and that it's between Crabtree and Curry.  I don't buy that the Seahawks let Peterson walk because of his contract--then make Curry one of the highest-paid linebackers in the game.  So, I've got them taking Crabtree . . .  The Browns flip over Curry at 1.5, and the Bengals are thrilled to see Monroe at 1.6.  I have the Raiders taking the best speed WR on the board--which, by the way, is NOT Darius Heyward-Bey.  Sanchez won't slide past eight, period.  The Packers are thrilled to anchor their 3-4 with Raji at nine, the Niners are pumped to get Orakpo at ten, the Bills replace Peters without having to trade up, and the Broncos take the best available 3-4 defender.

Thoughts, anyone?

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the time of reckoning is at hand

Tank McNamara, by Millar/Hinds

By all accounts, the deadline for a signed deal is tonight.  When we wake up tomorrow morning, either Matt Stafford or Aaron Curry is going to be the cornerstone of the Detroit Lions for at least the next few years.  Here's a hint: it's going to be Stafford.

Peter King (@SI_Peterking) tweeted yesterday around nine A.M. that the Lions and Stafford weren't anywhere close--but that a deal "has to" get done.  I'm hearing that safe refrain echoed all over, that the Lions want Stafford and Stafford wants the Lions and it all just makes way too much sense.   That if the Lions really do believe that Stafford is a franchise quarterback, they can't possibly let it come down to money.  That they can't bring in Aaron Curry and tell him "you're our man", when Curry knows Stafford was really their man.  That they can't pass on the guy who'll turn fifty years of rotten quarterbacking around.  That they can't play safe; can't play "not to win".  That they can't meekly lay down a sac bunt when they're down 0-16 . . .

 . . . and of course, it's all true.  I've said before, if the Lions really think that Stafford is a can't-miss franchise quarterback, then they absolutely have to take him.  There's also no doubt that this year is the perfect year to take a quarterback; if the Lions even win a single game, they literally will be infinitely better than last season!  There will be no expectations, and therefore little pressure.  Given a year or two to groom, a year or two to get comfortable, a year or two to mature and grow, a year or two for even more pieces to be put around him, Matt Stafford could indeed be the next Troy Aikman or Peyton Manning.  Were it not for the state of the Lions' defense, and the singular character and quality of Aaron Curry, I'd feel a lot better about it . . . and if it weren't for Stafford's percieved accuracy, poise, and production issues in college, I'd feel great about it. 

And what of Aaron Curry?  It's undeniable that he brings a multitude of incredible qualities to the table: sterling character, protoypical size, breathtaking speed.  The ability to drop back into coverage, roam the field like a safety, and run back picks for touchdowns.  The ability to man up on a recieving tight end, and take him completely out of the equation.  The ability to put a hand down, and come flying around the corner (he didn't do it often, but YouTube proves he can do it) . . . a wealth of seemingly contradictory skills, all rolled up into one.  The problem is that the Lions aren't going to use any of those skills.  Jim Schwartz put it thus:

"We're going to need a big thumper," Schwartz said. "I mean, a strong thumper in the middle for base defense. We're talking -- I don't want to put height and weights -- but a big, strong, physical player that can play between the tackles and that can take on offensive guards, even though (the linebacker) is being outweighed by almost 100 pounds on some occasions."

Can Aaron Curry be that thumper?  Yes, of course.  But the premium the Lions would pay for Curry--we're talking eight figures, guaranteed--over, say, USC's Rey Maualuga, would be buying them all that other wonderful stuff that Curry can do, but wouldn't be doing for the Lions.  In fact, let's look a little harder at Rey-Rey.  Standing at 6'-3", 260#, he's just a little bit bigger than Curry (6'-1", 254#).  While he didn't get a clean 40 off at the combine, thanks to a pulled hamstring, scouts timed Maualuga in the low 4.6 range at his Pro Day.  Maualuga also turned in short shuttle times around 4.25, which puts him right up with the very best.  Many Lions fans have cited the National Football Posts's famous article on short shuttle time being a key indicator of a middle linebacker's success in the NFL; Maualuga clearly shines in that department.  All told, Maualuga boasts a little bit more size, slightly shiftier hips, and all his college experience being at Mike, over Aaron Curry.  LA Times columnist Sam Farmer tweeted with me a bit yesterday about Maualuga; I offered to lay a dollar that Maualuga doesn't slip past the Lions at 1.20, and he said he wouldn't take the bet--because he agrees with me.  Honestly, is Curry's dedication to public service worth an extra twenty million dollars over a player who might even be a better pure MLB from day one?

YES!

Okay, okay--no, probably not.  If I'm answering the question honestly; if I'm using my head and not my heart, no.  Matt Stafford and Rey Maualuga would be infinitely better than Aaron Curry and any quarterback that might be available at 1.20 or later.  Will I always pine for Aaron Curry, just like I pine for Patrick Willis and Demarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman and every other monster defender that the Lions have passed up during the Millen era?  Yes, absolutely.  If Matt Stafford is the next great quarterback in the NFL, will it be worth it?

NO!

Er, yes.  Yes.  I meant "yes".

Really.

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it's stafford -- or not

Dave Birkett of the Oakland Press has the scoop: the Stafford deal is done, and Lewand's getting the final sign-off right now:  http://tinyurl.com/ck5g95

Much, much, much more on this later.

UPDATE: Killer is reporting that the Lions are officially denying this story.

Uh, what?  Did the Lions leak the story to Birkett and then tell Kowalski it isn't true??  I'm offically stunned at this point.

UPDATE UPDATE: Birk sez: "Update at 3:20 p.m.: Keenist finally texted me a back a few minutes ago saying my report is "untrue." But the Lions still haven't returned my calls and I don't know what exactly is being denied. Lewand and Ford did meet today and my sources say a deal is "really close." When I have more, I'll let you know."

 . . . yeah, still completely stunned.

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the lines are being drawn

For days, weeks, months even, the storylines have been developing.  All the rumors, the deceptions, the smokescreens, they're all in place.  As the waiting . . . and waiting . . . and waiting . . . finally, excruciatingly, glacially blooms into the beginnings of the first signs of the coming days, when eventually, someday, we will begin to hear word of who the Lions, with the first overall pick in the NFL draft, will select.

After all the posturing, all the stonewalling, and all the innuendo, what we know for sure boils down to this:

1) Matt Stafford is telling people it's all but done, and he's going to make north of $40M guaranteed.

2) Aaron Curry is telling Sirius radio he'd be "more than happy" to take less guaranteed money than Jake Long got last year.

Add to this the fact that the Lions made a great show of publicly hosting Curry's representation last weekend, while secretly meeting with Tom Condon at the same time, and it all leads me to believe the following statement is true:

Matt Stafford will be the pick if he'll sign a reasonable deal.  The Lions are using Aaron Curry as leverage to get Stafford to come down on price.  If Stafford won't get at least within the ballpark before Saturday afternoon, Curry will be the pick.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.  I can't possibly talk angles on the #1 overall pick any further . . . I'm completely drained.  Either we will be surprised with a signing in the next seventy-six hours, or we'll find out when Roger Goodell takes that little white card up on stage.

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an open letter

Messrs. Mayhew and Lewand--

You, gentlemen, are fully cognizant of the task you have at hand.  You figuratively hold the keys to an NFL franchise, the Detroit Lions--an organization worth, perhaps, a billion dollars.  You literally have hundreds of people in your employ, and many thousands of people indirectly rely on your success for their family's meal ticket.  On an even broader scope, millions of people over the past seventy-five years have invested their time, emotions, and money in following and supporting your organization--season tickets, single-game tickets, club and luxury suites, parking, concessions, hats, shirts, jerseys, flags, banners, stuffed animals, etc.  Of course, none of this is anything you aren't keenly aware of.

As you also know, hosting the Final Four in Detroit--with Michigan State in it to the finish line--was not only a great psychological boon to the people of Michigan, it provided a tangible economic boost to the city of Detroit.  However, as many pointed out, this was fleeting; a wonderful moment in time that can be hung on a wall--but won't pay the bills.  You, gentlemen, hold the power to generate that same kind of goodwill and rejuvenation on an ongoing basis.  With the on- and off-field renaissance of the Detroit Lions, you can bring that celebratory atmosphere back to Ford Field from autumn through winter.  You can create joy, create jobs, and create a legacy for yourselves as foremen of the rebuilding of a city.

The first overall pick of the NFL draft becomes, for good or for ill, the avatar of that franchise.  For years, the success or failure of the franchise that selects first will be chained--on the field, in the ledgers, and in the mind of the public--to the success or failure of that player.  In interviews and commercials, on the field and off, whomever you choose with that first overall pick will wear the first face anyone pictures, and speak with the first voice anyone hears, when people think of the Detroit Lions.  This selection is absolutely crucial to your rebuilding efforts; there is no room for error.

When Jim Schwartz was introduced to the media as the new head coach of the Lions, he spoke about finding the "right person", not just the right position, to take first overall.  My heart rose when I heard that, because I believe he spoke the truth.  The franchise you two now control cannot afford to bind itself to the player with the best workout numbers or the most gaudy statistics--not unless that player is also committed to being as impressive in the locker room and in the community as he is on the field.  Of course, you two have each personally investigated every aspect of these young men to a far deeper level than I could.  Between the two of you, you've watched hours of film of these players, sat and broken bread with these players, watched them in public and private workouts, spoken with them many times . . . all I have to go on is their public faces: what their agents would like me know, and what the media have been able to find out.

That having been said, I know I speak with the voice of many, many fans when I say that Aaron Curry should be the cornerstone of the new Detroit Lions.  His heart, his desire, his character, and his selflessness are all well documented.  His bringing a 12-year-old leukemia patient along with him to the draft is a perfect example of what the #1 overall pick should be to this franchise, to this city, and to this state.  His deferring of his NFL dream one more year, with his family facing homelessness, so that he could go back to school and ensure he'll be able to take care of that family for generations, proves that his priorities are in exactly the right place.  His leading a basement-dwelling Wake Forest team to the ACC championship proves he knows exactly what it means to be the heart and soul of a resurrected football team.  His once-in-a-generation combination of size, speed, agility, desire, and intelligence will immediately bolster a Lions' squad that was, just last season, arguably the worst NFL defense ever assembled.

Not long ago, the Lions' players were well known for being great leaders in the community, providers who put down roots in Detroit, and gave back to the city as much as the city had given them.  As you know, Robert Porcher won the NFL's Walter Payton Man of the Year award multiple times; Aaron Curry will surely follow in his footsteps.  Look out the window, gentlemen; read the papers on days when they can afford to be printed.  On the heels of the news that Michigan again leads the nation in joblessness, it would speak volumes about the class, the character, and the priorities of the Detroit Lions organization to ignore the hype.  To ignore the pundits and the shellacked talking heads.  To ignore the common wisdom and the conventional thinking.  To forget value charts and stopwatches, "big boards" and salary slots.  To yoke your franchise to the shoulders of a bold young man who will help Lions fans to their feet, on the field and off, again and again and again.  To restore pride to the Lions.

To draft Aaron Curry.

Forever a fan,

Ty Schalter

http://www.thelionsinwinter.com

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popping up for air

As anyone who's watched ESPN desperately try to keep eyeballs tuned to its marathon coverage of Day 2 of the draft has been told, franchises can be destroyed by bad drafting on Day 1, but dynasties are built by great drafting on Day 2.  Great late-round drafting makes an immediate impact on special teams play, and in some of the less-flashy positions like offensive guard, tight end, and safety.  Also, you'll see value when players change position--like when Bills signed an undrafted free agent tight end from Arkansas named Jason Peters and a few years later had a franchise left tackle.  Great late-round drafting makes a long-term impact by building depth that lets teams excel through six months of violence--and by building depth that makes losses to age or free agency sting much less.  The Patriots, Colts, Eagles, Chargers, and Steelers are all great examples of this; players in the late rounds will, after two or three years, either challenge for starting spots or go on to start elsewhere.

The Lions, thanks to trades that brought them Cliff Avril and the Cowboys' first and third-rounders, have traded away their fourth-, fifth- and seventh-round picks--but added the Cowboy's sixth-rounder, and received a compensatory seventh-round pick from the league.  So the Lions are working with the 6.1, 6.20, and 7.46.  Of course, the Lions needs are so great that rookies from almost any round, in almost any position, will have a chance to see the field.  Still, I think that there are couple of positions that the Lions will have in mind going into the latter rounds of the draft.

After three years of Rod Marinelli not keeping special teams specialists around, that cupboard is almost bare.  Look for the Lions to look hard at the safety/OLB 'tweeners with speed and who love to hit . . . guys like Ohio University prospect Michael Mitchell.  6'-1", 220 pounds, ran a 4.4 at his Pro Day and benched 22 reps of 225 pounds.  He wasn't invited to the combine, so he's just now starting to climb up team's radar.  He could be an impact gunner right away, and possibly take the roster spot of whichever of the Lions' many question-mark-surrounded safeties flame out this training camp or offseason.  In a couple of years, this kid could be out of the NFL, or a valuable starter, but I look at him, and other players with a similar skill set, as a strong possiblity for one of the three late-round picks.

Another type I think the Lions will look hard at--if not addressed in the earlier rounds--is wide receiver/kick returner.  The Lions need lots of help at both WR and CB, and they desperately need all the experienced returners they can get.  A wideout that's caught my eye--and the Lions' eye--is Washington State senior Brandon Gibson.  A big target at 6'-1", 210, he's very strong and physical, has great feet and body control, and runs excellent routes.  In his junior season, he led the Pac 10 in receptions and yardage with 67 grabs for 1,180 yards.  His production took a step back his senior year, as he was essentially the only worthwhile offensive player on the field for Washington State, but he still hauled in 50 passes for 793 yards.  He returned kicks well in both high school and college, once earning a nomination for Pac-10 special teams Player of the Week.  He was unable to attend the combine, or Wazzou's Pro Day, due to a hamstring pull.  But, he held a repeat workout day at a local high school.  The Lions had scouts in attendance, as he worked out in the wind and rain.  Partially thanks to the conditions, he didn't put up great numbers; his 40 run was timed in the high 4.5 to low 4.6 range.  Since his deep speed was really the biggest question on his resume, having subpar times in iffy conditions didn't really help.  Still, going into his senior season, he was on the preseason Maxwell award(given to the nation's most outstanding player) watch list--the kid has first-round talent.  Did I mention that Lions OL coach George Yarno was coaching at Wazzou during Gibson's freshman and sophomore years?  Gibson's not going to sneak past the Lions.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move into the low fourth or high fifth to get him, if he's there.

Finally, I think the Lions could be looking at tight end in the later rounds.  Whether or not they surprise everyone and take a TE early, the Lions' depth at tight end needs to be rebuilt.  Casey Fitzsimmons hasn't shown any NFL ability since his rookie season, and that was five years ago.  Michael Gaines was neither a great blocker nor offensive weapon, and John Owens is gone.  Free agent signee Will Heller looks like a pure blocker.  It's well known that one of the greatest crutches for a QB is a tight end with great hands, who can get open quick and catch the ball reliably, especially on third down--and whether or not the Lions draft Stafford, the Lions's QBs will need all the crutches they can get.  A guy I really hope might be there is N.C. State's Anthony Hill.  At 6'-5", 262, Hill's a really big, strong guy with a long frame.  He's a great inline blocker, but he's got really nice hands and can get open in traffic.  I think the Lions desperately need this kind of TE, a big blocker who can get open and make the catch on 3rd-and-6; move the sticks, over and over and over.  I don't think the Lions are really in need of the field stretching, Gates/Winslow type.  Johnson and Johnson are both deep threats; there should be plenty of space underneath for a TE like Hill. 

These by no means represent my "list of guys I think the Lions should take", and definitely isn't my projection of who I think the Lions will take with any specific pick.  These some of the kinds of players I think the Lions can and should pursue with their second-day picks: big, fast safeties who can tackle, polished receivers who can return kicks, and big blocking tight ends with great hands.  All of these kinds of players could have a tangible presence on the Lions' roster from day one, and any of them might develop into solid role players down the road.  

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the sins of the father

Tom Kowalski of mlive.com returned from a week-ish long hiatus to bring us this whopper of an admission:"

"I'll never forget the day that the Lions took Harrington with the third overall pick in 2002. Just minutes after they made the selection, I got a tip from someone who was in the Lions' war room that Mornhinweg was furious with the decision. After quickly getting it confirmed, I wrote about it and went on the radio with the information.

Within minutes of that happening, the Lions' public relations department set up a quick meeting with me and Mornhinweg - this is while the draft was still in its early stages. (I had never experienced anything like that before or since.) Mornhinweg spent 30 minutes trying to convince me that my sources were wrong and that he actually was on board with the pick. I knew it was total nonsense and Mornhinweg admitted years later that he never wanted Harrington - he wanted to trade the pick and, if that didn't work, he wanted cornerback Quentin Jammer."

Martin Mayhew, when (repeatedly) asked how he could be qualified to run a team when most of his real experience has come while working under Matt Millen, has said that he saw, from a very close range, how not to do it.  This example shows you exactly the kind of things he saw: egoes clashing, arm wrestling, territorial pissing matches.  The ownership dictating to management, management directing the front office, the management and front office running roughshod over the coaching staff, nobody working together, everyone pulling in different directions.  We saw it over and over and over during the Millen era: there was never a plan, there was never consistency, there was never a direction, but there WAS plenty of shouting and territory-marking.

At every step of the regime change: the hiring of Lewand and Mayhew, the firing of Marinelli, the steady-paced coaching search with multiple second interviews and multiple meet-the-pressers, the hiring of Jim Schwartz, his steady-paced coordinator search and hires, their slow filling out of the rest of the staff, and the long search for "the third football mind" and eventual hire of Shack Harris, there has been one message repeated over and over and over.  Mayhew and Lewand had a vision of the team they wanted the Lions to be, and they wanted a coach who shared that vision.  The coach's ideas of how to build a team was the same as the front office's, and he hired coordinators and assistants who understood and could execute those ideas.  Mayhew and Lewand wanted a credentialed personnel man to coordinate and oversee the scouts, and provide his own input and guidance--and they waited until they found the man with the right combination of experience and success.  All of the personnel moves made this season have precisely matched what the front office and coaching staff has said are the goals: run, stop the run, get bigger, get smarter, and get tougher.  There is a clear, stated plan, and all the available evidence says that the plan is being executed, from the highest levels on down.

This is not to say that there is, to borrow a phrase from my friend Steve at Detroit Lions Weblog, "hierarchical simpatico".  Everyone doesn't agree 100% all the time on every decision.  As an example, I get the sense that Mayhew never liked Drew Stanton as a pick, and DS doesn't figure into his medium- or long-term plans at all.  However, Jim Schwartz and Scott Linehan have each seemed genuinely interested in working with Drew and seeing what they have in him.  However, it's my belief that if Jim Schwartz and Scott Linehan came to Martin Mayhew and said, "We've evaluated Matt Stafford, and he's no good.  He can't be our quarterback", then Mayhew would not draft Stafford #1 overall.

Of course I have no idea what Schwartz or Linehan REALLY think about Stafford--maybe his workout really was "flawless" and they desperately want him under center.  But I do have an idea about what Mayhew thinks about Millen.  I do have an idea that Millen's greatest mistake was selecting Joey Harrington, knowing his coach didn't want him and couldn't use him.  The folly of acquiescing to the Ford's wishes over the pleas of  his scouts and personnel men, and the hubris of sticking it to his head coach by making Mornhinweg go out and spend thirty minutes lying through his teeth to Kowalski about how happy he is to have Harrington.  These are the greatest sins that Matt Millen committed, and they're ones I know Mayhew has committed to not making.

So, I've said it before and I'll say it again: if Matt Stafford is the pick--and at this point, I believe he will be--know that it is because Jim Schwartz and Scott Linehan have every confidence that they can mold this young man into an excellent NFL quarterback.

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chapter IV: a new hope

Obviously, everyone's long since heard: Cutler was on his way here to become a Lion, but the plane ran out of gas and had to land in Chicago.  Jerry D'Angelo hopped the fence at O'Hare and commandeered one of those luggage-hauling golf carts.  He swooped past the airplane stairs, snatched Cutler off his feet, and together they drove for seven hours to the airport bar.  D'Angelo called up the Broncos leadership (by the way, are there any employees other than the owner and coach?  Where was the GM in this whole mess?) and offered them the moon and the stars, and the deal was done.

I'm kind of confused about where this puts the Lions.  They've successfully convinced everyone that they're taking Matt Stafford #1 overall.  It might be a brilliant ploy to hoodwink everyone, but let's face it folks: they might well be taking Matt Stafford #1 overall.  It's in their interest to create a trade market for the #1 pick, sure, but putting out the word that you're going to take the guy nobody else wants doesn't really accomplish that.  It's been suggested that the Broncos could package their #12 pick and new #18 pick and get the #1 overall from the Lions, but if that's what they wanted to do they could have just done that with Cutler to begin with, and they'd have kept their #12 to boot.  It doesn't look like a setup or a smokescreen or anything like that; it looks like the simplest explanation is most likely the correct one: the Lions really need a QB, and they have the #1 overall pick, and there's a half-decent QB prospect available, and that's that.

 The Lions' situation at quarterback hasn't changed.  They still have Duante Culpepper, who is wretched but can be propped up to the media and fans as a quasi-legitimate starter, and Drew Stanton, who's a very talented quarterback, outstanding young man, and local favorite, but is also in the doghouse for reasons no one understands.  They still have the #1 pick, and there's still Matt Stafford right there.  The question is, do the Lions believe in Matt Stafford?  Can a private workout answer all ot the many questions surrounding Stafford and his game?  Unfortunately the only people who know the answer to that aren't telling.

This brings me to an important point: we are now in the "BS Zone" for the draft: anything we hear from this point out is almost certainly leaked misinformation.  With yesterday's USC Pro Day concluding the circus of private workouts, teams are now going back to their bunkers to hash out and finalize their draft boards.  Once the scouts and coaches and GMs and player personnel folks have all had their say, and every team has their final grades done, and the draft board is set, nothing else can happen between then and the draft, except gamesmanship .  Most of the time, the "late risers" and "late fallers" and "trade rumors" we hear about in the media are mularkey.  Sometimes, yes, real info slips out, like the Vikings having Troy Williamson about a full round higher up on their draft board than most other teams.  In a lot of cases, the dramatic rise and fall of certain players's stock is just that real info correcting the speculation of the fans and media.  However, with the amount of disinformation, speculation, and fan hysteria going on, trying to pick out what is "real" and what is noise is so difficult that it's almost not worth trying.

Almost.

It's disappointing to lose out on Cutler, of course, but the reality is that the Lions are better off with our 1.20, 3.1, 2010 1st, and whatever other value we would have had to part with to get that deal done.  This team has so many holes, so many needs, and so many chances to fill them; it would be foolhardy to deal off all that value and all of that potential for just one player--one who may or may not be any more talented than the guy the Lions will probably acquire for just the 1.1 all by itself: Matt Stafford.  We may yet see a dramatic move from the Lions, possibly a trade down from 1.1, or possibly a trade up or down from 1.20.  But, by far, the most likely scenario is that the Lions will to the obvious thing, the boring thing, the lame thing, the thing we all don't want them to do: take a QB number one overall.  Get your credit cards ready, folks, for your brand-new Stafford #7 jersey, on sale at www.detroitlions.com less than ten seconds after the pick is announced.  A new hope, a new savior, another Skywalker.  Let's hope this one is more Luke Stafford and less Anakin Harrington . . . 

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