C. C. Brown: Lions “Address” Safety Position

When it became known that the Lions had signed safety C. C. Brown, I immediately received condolences from Texans fans.

Despite this inauspicious beginning, I held out hope that Brown would be the kind of post-draft signing who could play a vital role.  Not a difference-maker, per se, but as a gap-closer between Marvin White and an average NFL starter, Brown could make a difference.  Even mildly strengthening the defense’s weakest link, which is also the last line of said defense, could strongly improve the unit’s overall level of play.

Well, according to Pro Football Focus’s safety film grades, C. C. Brown is an improvement over Marvin White, but only a miniscule one: Brown graded as the 76th-best of 87 safeties, and White finished 86th of those same 87.  I’ll leave it to them to explain how their grading system works, but essentially, players are graded on each play as to whether their performance is above or below an average performance for an NFL starter.

Glancing at the ordinal ranking, Brown and White are both terrible; we can safely put any hope that Brown will be a significant upgrade out with the trash.  But take a closer look at the actual data: over a greater amount of snaps (490 to 452), C. C.’s play earned a grade of negative 10.5, meaning that the balance of positive plays and negative plays swung him 10.5 points below the average for his position.  Marvin White’s grade was –21.6.

You can see in the data that C. C. was terrible in coverage, grading out at –10.6 in pass coverage assignments.  This is consistent with the most vocal criticism of his play.  However, he was +2.1 against the run, tied for 26th-best, just 0.1 behind 25th-ranked Louis Delmas.  Meanwhile, Marvin White was terrible everywhere: –14.2 in coverage, and –5.7 against the run.

Now, these grades aren't authoritiative, by any means: they're produced by passionate fans reviewing TV broadcasts.  But it gives you a lot more legitimate idea of Brown’s limitations than “he sucks”.  We see that Brown was indeed a major liability in coverage, but not as bad as White was.  Further, Brown was actually quite good against the run.  Now, for the wet blanket: Marquand Manuel and Ko Simpson, with 354 and 321 snaps, respectively, graded out much better than either Brown or White at–2.6 and –4.8 overall, respectively.

The next clue as to Brown's worth comes in his contract: he has a one-year contract with an undisclosed (likely minimal) salary.  We can see that he wasn’t brought in to start, but to compete.  Quoth The Grandmaster:

The one area that we probably still have more work to do is the secondary.  It is wide open in a lot of areas . . . We've got a lot of guys who have played a lot of football in the NFL, and they're all at that stage where they need to grab ahold of a starting position and hold onto it and not just be a part-time player or a bit player.

I’m left with an empty feeling here.  Between Brown, Manuel, Simpson, White, and Bullocks, only Bullocks hasn’t thoroughly proven himself to be a substandard NFL safety.  Bullocks is a human question mark: if a crazed, haggard man claiming to be from the future stopped me on a street corner today and told me Daniel Bullocks will to the Pro Bowl this year, I could see it.  If the same man stopped me today and told me Daniel Bullocks will be cut tomorrow, I could see it.

If Bullocks steps up and takes the job, I'll be thrilled; Bullocks and Delmas will make an excellent, young, athletic safety pair.  If it’s anybody else, or a platoon, this is going to be another yearlong headache of long runs and passes blowing games wide open.  C. C. Brown will be in the mix, I’m sure, and he’s certainly better than White . . . but anyone expecting him to step in and play well, or even be the odds-on favorite to start, is kidding themselves.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,c. c. brown,houston texans,new york giants

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three cups deep: eating crow

Today I eat a foul meal, indeed.  After looking over the data, seeing a decisive systemic advantage for our Gridiron Heroes, and hearing that Matt Stafford took part in Wednesday practices, I bravely predicted a victory over the Packers.  I don’t think I need to describe the agony that Sunday’s results inspired--Neil over at Armchair Linebacker already sauced my crow plate with his own, unfailingly lyrical, take.

Adding insult to injury, I posted yesterday that I'd be Tweeting throughout the game--then either Twitter, or every Twitter client I could get my hands on, went down.  I also ran a quick pre-game errand that ended up not being quick at all, and so I listened to most of the first half on the radio.

There's something about following a game on the radio or internet that makes a blowout loss much worse.  Without the ability to see what's happening, to understand why, you really feel like the Football Gods are simply smiting you:

Daunte Culpepper drops back to pass . . .

Please don't be intercepted please don't be intercepted please don't be intercepted please don't be intercepted please don't be intercepted

. . . and it's picked off! He threw it RIGHT TO Cullen Jenkins!

DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!

It’s infuriating.  It’s nauseating.  It’s even emasculating--like your strength and pride as a fan is being taken from you, and there’s nothing you can do about it.

The Packers' emasculation of the Lions was swift and surgical, indeed.  Rogers exploited the Lions’ horrific secondary for an opening-drive bomb, Culpepper threw a horrific pick with his first pass attempt, the Pack cashed in, and the game was over with 7:25 left in the first quarter.  The numbers will show the Packers didn't play a very good game--13 penalties for 130 yards!—yet, the Lions were absolutely powerless to keep pace.

After the initial salvo, the Lions' D actually stiffened up.  The Lions had three offensive possessions in between the second TD and the Packers' next score, a Crosby FG.  If they'd turned those three possessions into just 10 points, we are talking about a COMPLETELY different ballgame.  Of course, they didn't, and so we are talking about a vicious loss that "feels" even worse than it looked--and it looked bad.  On Twitter, I called it the Lions' second "GPS Game" and, well, now we know exactly where the Lions are.

Well . . . we know where they're at without Matt Stafford.  Without Calvin Johnson.  Without Sammie Hill, DeWayne White, Jason Hunter, or Ko Simpson.  Isn't it interesting that already, these players are the difference between competitiveness and 2008-level play?  Stafford is already an immediate upgrade over Culpepper; there can be no debate about that now. Megatron we know is Megatron, and White's been solid when healthy, but Sammie Hill?  Jason Hunter?  Ko Simpson?  A fourth rounder from an NAIA school, a street free agent, and a guy who would have been cut if not traded for; they're already major contributors, missed dearly when they're gone.  It brings home exactly how bankrupt the Lions' roster was when Mayhew took over.

One phrase I've heard quite frequently this season from Lions fans, bloggers, and reporters: "I know there are no moral victories, but . . . ", with the "but" preceding, you know, why this past loss was a moral victory.  There is nothing like that here.  This was a brutal, punishing, vicious, demeaning defeat.  It stopped the momentum from the Steelers game dead.  It sheared the the little green rosebuds off the black and thorny stems of seasons past.

. . . and now, nothing.  Bleakness, emptiness; a bye.  As snow, probably, begins to fall outside our windows on Sunday, this loss will simmer, stew, marinate.  There's nothing to look forward to: no early previews of the upcoming opponent, no breathless injury report updates, not even "so-and-so looked good during jogging today".  No, my crow will be slowly braised, for two weeks, in a bitter broth of injuries, ineffectiveness, turnovers, and defeat.

Ugh.  After that, there's no way I can suck down a third cup of office sludge. I'm going out for espresso.

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three cups deep: the roster is set

After an especially lazy Labor Day morning, I have yet to sip even a single drop of coffee, let alone three cups.  Rather than attempt to rehash everything that happened last weekend, I’ll simply crib from Adam Caplan’s excellent Transaction Blog:

Claimed CB Cletis Gordon off of waivers from the Texans, waived WR Eric Fowler, released CB Keith Smith, waived WR Glenn Holt, released CB Dexter Wynn with injury waiver, signed QB Brooks Bollinger, claimed QB Kevin O'Connell off of waivers from New England, released G Terrence Metcalf, waived WR D.J. Boldin, waived LB Rob Francois, waived CB LaMarcus Hicks, waived DE Ryan Kees, acquired S Ko Simpson for an undisclosed 2010 draft choice, waived DE Orion Martin, released DT Chuck Darby, waived OT Lydon Murtha, placed CB Chris Roberson on IR, released DT Shaun Smith, waived LB Rufus Alexander, released QB Brooks Bollinger, released G Milford Brown, waived TE Carson Butler, released RB Aveion Cason, released WR Keary Colbert, waived DE Sean Conover, released K Billy Cundiff,  waived RB Tristan Davis, waived LB Zack Follett, waived C Dan Gerberry, waived TE Dan Gronkowski, released WR Dane Looker, released S Calvin Lowry, waived CB Ramzee Robinson, released S Stuart Schweigert, waived LB Spenser Smith, waived WR John Standeford, waived: DE Ikaika Alama-Francis, CB Cletis Gordon, WR Adam Jennings, traded QB Kevin O'Connell to New York Jets for future draft pick, claimed DE Copeland Bryan off waivers from Buffalo Bills, claimed WR Yamon Figurs off waivers from Baltimore Ravens, claimed CB Marcus McCauley off waivers from Minnesota Vikings, claimed CB Kevin Hobbs off waivers from Seattle Seahawks.

Signed to practice squad: WR John Broussard, TE Carson Butler, RB Tristan Davis, LB Zack Follett, C Dan Gerberry, TE Dan Gronkowski, OT Lydon Murtha.

Whew, got all that?  Really, there aren’t too many surprises here.  Mayhew flipped O’Connell, though faster than I anticipated; Cletis Gordon, Five-O, and Adam Jennings un-made the final roster; then a DR, KR, and two CBs  were claimed off of the waiver wire.  My guess is that McCauley and Hobbs will be given a chance to compete for a spot at nickel corner, and the loser will be shipped off as soon as another DT is acquired.  Why a DT?  Well, with Orien Harris (CORRECTION: several sharp-eyes readers noted that I got the wrong "Orion"; Orien Harris is still on the roster--though that hardly eliminates the concerns I expressed below), Chuck Darby, Shaun Smith, and Five-O all sent packing, the Lions are down to Grady Jackson, Landon Cohen, Sammie Hill, and Andre Fluellen at DT.  

Carrying only four DTs doesn’t sound dire—but Jackson is going to be  15-20 snap situational guy, Cohen’s a seventh-rounder in his second year, Hill was playing 3-4 DE in the NAIA like nine months ago, and Fluellen has been working primarily at DE.  There isn’t a single proven, reliable starter to play DT--though Cohen certainly read well for the role, when he auditioned against Atlanta.  In order to stop the run, this defense is going to need outstanding---both explosive AND disciplined—linebacker play, as well as help from the DBs.

New (presumptive) starting safety, Ko Simpson brings both size and speed to the position; one can only hope his athleticism leads to more plays made back there.  I’ve been sweating bullets about the cornerbacks since the day they let Leigh Bodden walk, and the addition of two waiver-wire scrubs doesn’t assuage my fears—especially given the physical-but-lackluster play of Eric King this preseason.  Even if this unit miraculously stays healthy, both skill and depth are going to remain a problem.

On the other hand, the addition of Yamon Figurs is one I’m excited about.  A 2007 third-round pick of the Ravens, Figurs exploded in his rookie season in relief of the injured B. J. Sams.  Figurs became the primary returner in 2008, but didn’t build upon his initial success.  The Ravens signed former Titans CB/KR Chris Carr—remember him?—and Carr edged out Figurs for the returner gig.  As Figurs couldn’t crack the WR depth chart, he was released. 

I still think Figurs has the explosiveness to be a primary returner for the Lions—and with Cason gone, the Lions have only one player with actual experience as an NFL returner: #1 CB Philip Buchanon.  Figurs should have the leg up on the punt returner gig, and should push Williams and Brown for looks at kick returner, too.

When you take a step back and look at how incredibly different this team is from the 0-16 squad, especially on defense, it’s impressive.  Barring any further miracle transactions—and without knowing the compensation given for Ko Simpson, or received for Kevin O’Connell—the Lions have very well in turning the roster over this season.  However, there’s still a long way to go before this roster matches up, on paper, with the better squads in the NFL.

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