baby, it's cold outside

Yesterday, I took the minivan out for a desperately-needed car wash.  The family truckster was smothered in a chalky, dingy coat of salt and dirt; three straight rounds of "I'll wash the car when it stops snowing and warms up", only to have niether happen, had taken their toll.  Well, I happened to be out and about, it was a bright, beautiful day, and the little ones always enjoy the big floppy cloths and the "rainbow soap" and the roaring  flamethrower turbine dryers.  With the mercury rising dangerously close to what we Michiganderanians consider T-shirt weather--fifty degrees--it seemed like the perfect thing to do on a lazy Sunday.  Then, I got to the parking lot.

  Fifty other people'd had the exact same idea.  The line for the car wash extended all the way out into the street, and people were just parking in one of the driving lanes with their turn signal on.  Everyone had followed the same thought process I had: beautiful day, been putting it off for months, doing nothing else . . . wash the car.  It's one of the things about the long, cold winter--it synchronizes our thoughts and actions.  It adjusts our expectations.  It makes us thrill for the merest hint of warmth.  It messes with our heads.

It's been funny as this year's NFL Draft Circus puts up the big tent.  The mockers are mocking, the analysis is flowing, and guys are rising and falling up the chart as the only real piece of info anyone has to go on--the Senior Bowl--has created almost unstoppable momentum.  Some of you might remember, I'd identified  B.J. Raji as a guy we should look at with our 1.20 . . . he had a good practice in the Senior Bowl--he was completely invisible in the game--and he's now a lock for the top ten, according to most mocks.  This, despite the fact that he wasn't graded as a top ten guy mostly because of his inconsistency.

It's funny, because with all the Lions fan mocks, comments, analysis, reaction, blogpost, blog comments, forum threads and replies, texts, tweets, and smoke signals, they all say the same things: "we need linemen", "we need corners", and my favorite, "we need five immediate impact players in this draft".  It's the same thing we do every year: we look at the team, and we think about the team we wish it was.  It's part of where we've grown up: we want tough.  We want a vicious, stingy defense.  We want to be stout against the run and relentlessly attack the pass.  We want to control the ball, control the clock, control the game.  Hit people in the mouth so hard they can't hit back.  We all follow the same, reasonable thought process.  We look at the 2008 Lions, and subtract, at least, Mike Furrey, Leigh Bodden, Edwin Mulitalo, and Dan Campbell.  Then we examine the differences between the 2008 Lions and the mythical, "2000 Ravens + QB + Megatron" we wish they were.

Then, we look at the pool of available candidates and start trying to check them off.  Crushing OT: Andre Davis, check.  Dominant MLB: James Laurenitis, check.  Smothering cover corner: D. J. Moore in the second . . . check?  Pair of RB-eating defensive tackles:  Um, maybe we trade up for B.J. Raji?  And, uh, I guess we sign Haynesworth?  You're dreaming.  Double-digit-sack DE?  Brian Orakpo.  Come on, you've already spent your two first-round picks three times.  Well, uhm, uh, is Julius Peppers going to be available?  Not to the Lions he isn't!

Hey, nice to see the National Football Post has been reading and agreeing.  Hey, fellas, what's up?

Seriously though, some of the reaction I've gotten on my Freeman pick in the NSS Interblog Mock Draft has gotten me thinking.  It's funny, because I often take a rap as an "optimist", an "apologist", a "sucker", or even an "idiot" because I never stop cheering for the Lions.  I never call the players bums, I never call the coaches or morons or idiots.  I never loudly proclaim that "I'm done with them", threaten to kill them, or root for the Reaper to come swiftly for Big Willie Style.  But then a lot of the so-called 'realists', the loudest complainers and most aggreived moaners, are right in line with me at the car wash!  We're all in a big herd saying, we need OT, we need DT, we need CB, we need LB, we gotta get five impact players, we need more talent, we gotta get bigger, we need, we gotta, we need, we gotta . . . whoa, whoa, WHOA!  I'm going to say something I never say during the season:

The Lions suck.

They suck, folks!  Our team, the Lions?  They suck out loud.  They blow goats.  You cannot add enough 23-year-old fatsoes to this roster to turn them into the 2000 Ravens.  You have to step back.  You have to take a breath.  Throwing rookies at pressing needs is not going to help--rookies, for the most part, can't fill those needs.  If you need Ray Lewis now, you can draft eleven MLBs and not get the one Patrick Willis that would help.  If you need Jonathan Odgen now, you can draft eleven offensive tackles and not get the one Jake Long that would help.  SO FEW rookies make an immediate impact!  First-rounders play like top starters as an exception, not as a rule.

Well, what about free agency?  Not much better.  This isn't the 90s anymore--good teams aren't shedding veteran starters in their prime for the rest of the league to gobble up.  The great dynasties of this era are all ten or twenty million under the cap.  Nowadays, almost by definition, if free agents were worth the amount of money they're asking for, they'd still be with their original team.

So . . . what, then?  You build for the future, because it's all you can do.  You have to take the players that you want to build up.  That you want to build your team around.  Coming into the 2011 training camp, these players should be the core of the team.  But coming into the 2009 camp, these players should--and will--be learning, and growing.  One or two of them might catch fire and contribute right away--but they will be hope for the future, not the foundation of a contending team.  We can't grade the players drafted this April by what happens on the field this September.

What we WILL get to grade, though, is the way Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand handle this draft.  We can see how they feed the roster, what positions need attention, if they appear to be working with the coaches, if they make trades, if they stand pat, how they react to the board unfolding in front of them.  THAT is what we should really be anxious to see in April--not eleven new Lions, but the performance of the men charged with drafting, teaching, coaching, and leading them.

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mock lion soup: please don't send it back!

So . . . I made my pick over at the Next Season Sports interblog mock draft.

Whoo boy, did it not go as I planned.  As I explained over there, I believe strongly that the Lions are going to look to get bigger up front and through the middle of their defense.  DT and ILB are the two biggest needs--you cannot stop the run with Cory Redding and Landon Cohen in front of Paris Lenon.  It's just not going to happen.  Unfortunately the DT everyone can't get enough of, B.J. Raji, went at 1.10.  The next best DT is Peria Jerry, and not only is he a undersized three-technique DT, he went at 1.19!  There are no other DT's I'd consider.  ALL of the ILBs were gone: Curry, Maualuga, Cushing if you shift him over, and Laurenitis--who I actually think will be the 1.20 if he's there, BTW.  Since Steve from www.detroitlionsblog.com drafted 6'-7", 260# LB/DE Michael Johnson with the first pick, I decided he could flex pretty much anywhere in the front seven except NT in a 3-4 or OLB in a 4-3, and moved on to the next biggest need: Cornerback.  Unfortunately, the top two corners were both gone, including Vontae Davis to the Bears at 18.  I felt that one of the next two corners, Alphonso Smith and D.J. Moore, would be there at the 2.1, so . . . damn.  What next?  I really feel like this is the doomsday scenario for the Lions--there's a bunch of offensive skill position guys here, but nothing the Lions really need--and considering how much they need, that's saying something!  I went with the next most pressing need . . . quarterback of the future:

(photo by Getty Images)

That's right, I took KSU quarterback Josh Freeman, all 6'-6" and 250 pounds of him.  I went into my reasoning quite a bit over at NSS, but basically it's like this: Freeman is the next Culpepper.  He's huge, he's mobile, he's athletic, he's got a gun, he's got a fumbling problem.

Why, if I am such a rabid anti-Cpep guy, would I pick Freeman?  Well, I kind of see "Culpepper" as his downside.  Culpepper never really had to learn to "play QB", since streetball was so effective in both college and the pros.  Culpepper merely shredded I-AA compeition with raw talent, but Freeman was battle-tested against superior Big 12 teams.  Often, Freeman was the only thing going for his Wildcats, leading them in rushing and throwing all over everywhere.  Further, he ran a pro-style offense at KSU--which also featured a significant no-huddle package, proving he can diagnose defenses and run an offense on the field.  Freeman possesses a lot of the indicators for quick success in the NFL (in the mold of Flacco, Ryan, and Roethlisberger).  Yet with no expectations for the Lions in 2009, he can sit and be groomed for a year or two.  Freeman, as a late-first-rounder--as opposed to Stafford as a #1 overall--could easily be billed as a project.  Linehan can teach him to play like he taught Culpepper, maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.  Freeman shouldn't get the kind of "start him now" pressure that Stafford at 1.1 would recieve--and I'd hope the Lions front office and staff would be on the same page about being patient with him.

You know, when it comes to football blogs, a YouTube clip is worth ten thousand words:

Word.

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old mother hubbard: the defensive tackles

To analyze the defensive line properly, we're going to have to briefly review whether the pentagonal peg that is the talent is going to be hammered into a square or round hole: a scheme that utilizes four or three down linemen.  Schwartz and Cunningham have actively evaded this question as they're going to try to fit the scheme to the talent and not the other way around.  Since they've only just begun the process of evaluating the talent they currently have, in theory they have no better idea whether they will run a 4-3 or 3-4 than you or I.  Let's evaluate the talent from both perspectives.

Cory Redding: Redding is the highest-paid defensive lineman on the Lions' roster.  Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2003 draft, he was a strongside DE at the University of Texas, and a linemate of Shaun 'Big Baby' Rogers.  He was drafted as a DE/DT 'tweener, a guy who could dominate against the run on first and second-and-short, and then move inside and rush the passer on second-and-long and third down.  This past season was his sixth, and at 28 he should just be entering his prime.  He's listed at 6'-4", 295, though I thought he looked at least 15 lbs. heavier than that this season.  When Rod Marinelli came to town to install the Tampa 2, Redding was tabbed as an 'under' tackle in the making, a one-gap pass rushing DT in the mold of a young Warren Sapp.    As many know, Redding had a breakout season in 2006, playing like a stud in Shaun Rogers' absence, garnering 8 sacks.  However, when Rogers came back in 2007, rather than pick up where he left off, Redding mostly disappeared.  He took another step back in 2008, even though Rogers was gone once again.  Playing in only 13 games due to a late-season knee injury, Redding was completely pedestrian, getting 38 tackles and three sacks.  Redding is nothing like the force the Lions thought they were getting when they signed him to a monster deal after the 'o6 year.  He's definitely got the athleticism to be a disruptive presence in the middle, but either he has quit on the Lions or he's lost something.  Out of shape?  Less weight work, more twelve-ounce curls?  It's difficult to say.  Of course, it's significant that he's the only Lions lineman that ever commands a double-team, so that can account for some of it--but then he rarely beats the double-team like a premier DT can.  In a 4-3, he is definitely too big and too slow to play defensive end, but with the right motivation he could still be a solid starter at the smaller tackle spot.  In a 3-4, he would make a very good defensive end--he'd just stand there and take up two blockers so the LBs behind him can make a play!  As a 3-4 nose tackle, however, I think Redding would be overmatched.  He could take up a double-team, but not regularly shed it or split it to make plays.  From an off-the-field perspective, Redding is extremely popular in the locker room and is typically voted a captain.  As one of the few holdovers from the pre-Marinelli era, Redding is a rare Lions veteran and a strong, vocal leader.  Even if his play on the field doesn't justify his exorbitant salary, now is not the time to start ditching positive locker room leaders.  Bottom Line: The Lions are committed to Redding money wise for at least 2009 and maybe 2010, so look for him to be starting as a 4-3 UT or 3-4 DE/NT in '09.

Shaun Cody: Four years ago, Cody came into the league as the star of the not-hit reality TV show "Super Agent", a second-round pick in the draft, and the Pac-10 defensive player of the year.  Listed at 6-4", 310, Cody played both inside and outside at USC.  Lacking the speed to be a full-time pass rusher, yet lacking the bulk and strength to throw people around, Cody was prized for being a hardworking, talented football player who was productive at the highest level of college football--sure to find a place in the NFL.   After being drafted by the Lions, Cody immediately got into the rotation, playing in every game, and even started two.  He got 27 tackles and 1.5 sacks in his rookie year . . . up until Redding went down with a knee injury in late 2008, it was Cody's most productive year.  Shaun Cody has been mostly invisible in his tenure with the Lions, not exactly what you want out of a highly touted second-round pick.  Until late 2008, he didn't flash much heart or motor, and even when he did he failed to make an impact.  This year, however, as he matured and his opportunities grew, he was starting to get upfield, make solid tackles, and collapse the pocket.  He didn't get any sacks, but he did get 36 tackles (25 solo) and three passes defensed--all three numbers are career highs.  Of course, these are still very mediocre numbers for a DT that played in every game and started four--but at least the needle moved.  Moreover, Cody's body type and game are ideally suited for the end position in a 3-4 alignment--if the Lions were to move to a 3-4, keeping Cody would make sense--however, this being the offseason after his fourth year, Cody is now due to be an unrestricted free agent.  Bottom Line: the Lions' interest in retaining Cody will probably depend on the chosen defensive alignment.  If they choose a 3-4, they may pay to keep him as an end.  If they stay in a 4-3, he could be allowed to walk.

Andre Fluellen: Fluellen was a rookie this year, a 6'-2", 296 lb. third-round pick from Florida State.  At FSU, he was a tenacious and disruptive interior run stopper--when healthy.  The coaching staff has repeatedly claimed he's a better player than any recent FSU DT, including guys like Darnell Dockett and Broderick Bunkley.  In the NFL, his height, frame, and athleticism projects him as candidate to see time both inside and outside (detecting a theme yet?).  As I posted earlier, "Flu" really started to flash his talent towards the end of the year:

"Andre Fluellen, on the other hand, barely saw the field until the bitter end, but when he did I noticed something. Andre Fluellen was bringing guys down in the secondary for eight yard gains. He was forcing running backs out of bounds. He was wrapping up wideouts on WR screens, after said WRs juked the corners. He wasn't ever collapsing the pocket or throwing guys around, but Fluellen-at 296 pounds mind you--was frequently the second or third guy in on every tackle, everywhere on the field. That speaks volumes about A) his level of effort, and B) his athleticism."

I really like Fluellen's future in the two-years-out timeframe.  His motor and hustle would let him contribute as a 4-3 strong side end, but after adding bulk and strength, I see him as a replacement for Cory Redding: a big, lean defensive tackle with a motor and tackling skills.  In the 3-4, his size would make him seem like an end prospect--but I am not sure he has the point-of-attack strength and bulk to keep the linemen behind him clean.  Also, he wouldn't be used much on stunts or traps, where he could use his lateral and deep speed to get upfield and disrupt.  I think if he could add 20 or 30 pounds over the next several years and work on his strength and technique, his short, wide frame  and high motor could allow him to be a pocket-collapsing nose tackle.  Bottom line: a talented natural one-gap player who could blossom into a force as he goes through NFL training and nutrition.  In 2009 I see him as a 4-3 SDE/UT, or a 3-4 DE.

Landon Cohen:  Cohen was a seventh-round draft pick last year from Ohio.  Not the Buckeyes, the Bobcats.  He was a destroyer up the middle--despite his relatively light 6'-4", 278 lb. physique.  Interestingly Cohen was a 4-year letterman in track at his high school in Spartanburg, SC.  Track!  At Ohio, Cohen played the nose tackle position despite being a little undersized for that, even by MAC standards.  And yet, he was 2nd-team all-conference his senior year, with 59 tackles (27 solo), 12.5 TFL and 1.5 sacks, starting all twelve games.  Despite being a little taller and notably thinner than fellow rookie Andre Fluellen, Cohen is listed on the Lions depth chart as a nose tackle.  He saw time against several teams, setting his career high in tackles against the Colts (4).  I didn't get to see much of him, but from what I can find in scouting reports, he has excellent technique and leverage, helping him make up for his lack of beef.  He seems to excel in initial burst and shedding blocks with quick moves, but doesn' t have the range or athleticism to run around making plays on the edge or in space.  According to the info I can find, he's at his best as a one-gap upfield rusher.  Bottom line: Cohen is a true 4-3 one-gap nose tackle who was born a little too small.  If he could add a lot of bulk he could stay at NT--otherwise, he's another 4-3 UT/3-4 DE project.

Chuck Darby:  The "War Daddy" was one of the system players brought in by Rod Marinelli.  Darby was an undrafted free agent NT who spent 2000 on the Bucs' practice squad, then got signed in 2001, and finished the 2002 season by starting in the Super Bowl.  Darby left for Seattle as a free agent, and they were happy to get him.  By all accounts, Darby was a valued teammate whose intensity and relentless drive helped rally everyone around him.  Seattle wanted to keep him, but Marinelli pushed hard to get him signed first.  Not ideally sized at 6'-0", 297"  (DETECTING A THEME YET?), Darby plays with great passion and motivation.  When able to get the edge on his opponent, Darby can be a disruptive force up the middle on both passing and running downs.  However, he is unable to maintain his extraordinary effort for a great number of snaps, and with the Lions defense often being hung out to dry by the offense, Darby became a situational player.  Also, when facing elite interior linemen, Darby is erased--he posted just three total tackles in two games against Minnesota's Matt Birk and Steve Hutchinson--at some point, effort cannot overcome a lack of size and talent.  Bottom line: Darby could make a good 3-4 end, but would be a liability at NT.  No matter the alignment, Darby is a valuable rotational player who brings emotional leadership on and off the field--and comes at a low cost.  If he'll stay, we should keep him.

Langston Moore:  Moore is a 4th-year veteran still coming into his own.  He's made an impression ever since the Lions signed him late in the 2006 season.  A former sixth-round pick of the Bengals, he's on his third NFL roster--which is odd because for a sixth-rounder who's bounced around so much, he's seen plenty o f action.  At 6'-1", 305 lbs, Moore is a little shy on bulk for an NT (is there an echo in here?).  Moore has been an effective rotational body at NT, enough so that he was one of eleven defensive linemen kept on the original 53-man roster.  Moore is an intelligent, enthusiastic young player with burgeouning business interests off the field, but he's already behind Cohen on the depth chart, and I don't see that changing any time soon.  Bottom line: Moore will probably be the first guy cut . . . if he sticks around, he'll be 4-3 DT depth.

SUMMARY:

Going by listed height and weight, and the roles they typically play, the Lions have 4 guys who are somewhere between a 4-3 strongside run-stuffing DE, a 3-4 DE, and a 4-3 'under' or 'three-technique' DT.  The only natural 4-3 nose tackles they have are both sub-300-pounders.  In case you didn't notice, there is a recurring theme of 'undersized'.  The Lions do not have enough bulk up the middle, and were regularly pushed around in the run game.  This was most evident in the Thanksgiving Day debacle, where Tennesee's excellent offensive line and running backs were absolutely gashing the Lions for 7-, 10-, 20-yard chunks just by running up the middle.  It really looked like the Titans put it in the cooler before the first quarter was out--but just running the same four or five run plays was absolutely blowing holes in the Lions defense.  If the Lions stay with a 4-3, they are going to need to improve upon Chuck Darby as a starting NT, and either Redding is going to have to recapture his 2006 form, or Fluellen is going to have to take big strides and make an impact, or both.  If they move to a 3-4, the Lions will be absolutely destitute at NT.  The biggest body they have is Cody, and IMO he would be worthless as a two-gap tackle.  Redding could pound some cheeseburgers and be subpar there, but nobody else--Darby, Cohen, Fluellen--could even hope start at NT in 2009.  They would have to acquire a starter--either a proven veteran free agent, or a rookie acquired with one of their first three picks.  The good news is that there would be a surplus of young, interesting 3-4 DEs.  If you had a rejuvenated Redding, Cody, and Fluellen rotating between two DE spots, with a big fat dude in the middle, THAT could be an effective DL.

On the free agent market, the "big fish" is Titans DT Albert Haynesworth, a monstrous talent who is practically a run defense unto himself.  Many Lions fans hope that Haynesworth is looking to move with his defensive coordinator, new Lions HC Jim Schwartz, but that runs counter to everything Lewand and Mayhew have openly said about their plans to build through the draft instead of free agency.  Mayhew even explicitly said that the Lions won't be making the huge-money deal for the splashy guy at midnight the first day . . . which seems exactly the kind of deal Haynesworth will be looking for.  There are a few intriguing veterans who may get a look, like Tampa DT Jovan Haye, but I don't see a quick fix out there.  In the draft, the premium talent is a guy I suggested people watch a while ago, Boston College man-elephant B.J. Raji.  Raji is an honest 350 and is exactly the sort of dominating bulk you want as a 3-4 two-gap tackle--yet he shows burst and athleticism too.  His downfall appears to be consistent effort and motivation, but then many physical freaks run into those issues.  How many of you out there are clamoring for Shaun "25 Snaps and Four Tanks of Oxygen" Rogers back right now?  If Raji were available at the 1.20 spot, he'd be very hard to pass up--no matter the defensive alignment we choose.

Next up, defensive ends . . .

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Todd Bowles Coaching Resumé: To Whom it May Concern

Todd Bowles has snuck under the radar for quite some time.  While I've attempted to profile all serious candidates, I found myself finding reasons to put Bowles's piece off.  It's strange, because there ISN'T a good reason to.  He's a position coach with 'assistant head coach' appended to his title, which seems to mostly be a device for to keep other teams from hiring good coaches away.  He's known as an excellent motivator and teacher.  He comes from a great coaching pedigree, one that has spawned many excellent coordinators and skippers.

Oh wait, I know why I've mentally marginalized him: he's got Rod Marinelli's resume.  He seems to be cut from almost exactly the same cloth, a 'star' position coach with a great track record of making players and units he coaches better--but no coordinator experience at the NFL level, and not much at the college level either.  Like first interviewee Jerry Gray, Bowles played with Martin Mayhew in Washington, so it's been tempting to think the Lions interest in Bowles is on a similarly superficial level.

So what was Todd Bowles doing in Allen Park, addressing the media from the Lions' podium?  Yes, just like Jim Schwartz--the only other candidate to be invited back to meet with Big Willie Style--Bowles did a pre-interview presser to introduce himself to the media, as well as lift up a corner on the sheet covering his plan for turning the Lions around.  Bowles spoke energetically, explaining why he'd have it all under control:

"I've done this before. I know the blueprint of turning a team around," Bowles said. "The blueprint we have is to change the culture. The first thing you have to do is condition. You have to condition the players mentally. They have to buy into the system.

It's astounding; he really does seem to be channeling Marinelli with this quote.  It would be hilarious--if he hadn't just done it on the field.  He is a vital part of the Tuna-picked staff that came over from the Cowboys, and turned the Miami Dolphins from a team that needed an overtime miracle to avoid pulling an 0-fer themselves, to an 11-5 squad that wrested the AFC East crown from the preseason darling Patriots, Jets, and Bills.  Lions fans have already marveled at how perennial disappointment Andre Goodman has metamorphosized into a solid starting cornerback--well Bowles presumably played a big part in that.  In fact, the Fins started Goodman and Will Allen at corner this year--two players that were written off and released by the teams that drafted them.  Goodman and Allen each got every opportunity to start in Detroit and New York, both were high draft picks at positions of need, yet both were sent packing after their original team just couldn't get starter production out of them.  Under Bowles, however the secondary was decent even with those two guys starting.  The obligatory rundown:

* The Dolphins were the NFL's 9th-ranked scoring defense, and 15th-ranked yardage defense.

* The Dolphins picked off opposing quarterbacks 18 times, 8th best in the NFL.

* Despite losing Jason Taylor, the Fins still managed 40 sacks, also 8th best in the NFL.

* QBs facing the Dolphins posted a passer efficiency rating of just 77.0--to put this into perspective, opposing QBs facing the Fins played like Jamarcus Russell this year (77.1), whereas QBs facing the Lions played like Steve Young in his prime (average of 110.9).

* Despite that, the Fins were ranked only 25th in passing yardage defense, allowing 3,644 yards through the air.  I was curious how opposing QBs could be rated so poorly, and yet move the ball well against the defense.  Part of the answer is that the Fins were susceptible to the deep pass, allowing 49 20+ yard pass plays--tied for fifth worst in the NFL. 

It sounds like the Fins' DBs managed to hold down the fort very well from within 20 yards, forcing bad throws, picking them off, getting coverage sacks, and defending passes.  However, I don't know if it's corners getting beat or bad safety play, but the Dolphins secondary DID give up a lot of big plays.

To be perfectly frank, there's not a lot of information on Bowles.  He's obviously well respected around the League: he also interviewed for the Broncos gig.  He has the Parcells stamp of approval--witness this quote from his presser:

“From the time I got to the Jets, he told me I’d be a head coach in this league, and he taught me accordingly. I mean, he kept me by his side. He taught me step-by-step the structure of how to put a team in place and keep a team in place and not be a one-hit wonder. … Parcells has taught me more about, from the first guy on the roster to the last guy on the roster, how he fits in the system, why he fits in the system, why we want him on this team, why we do not want him on this team, and he taught me how to learn players.”

Taught him how to learn players, he did.  Like Candidate 1A and the Grandmaster, Bowles spent a year as a scout before getting into coaching.  In his case, he worked under Ron Wolf and the Packers for the '95-'96 season.  Out of curiosity, I looked up how the Pack drafted in 1996.  In the first round, they selected OT John Michels--he made the all All-Rookie team, but his career was devastated by injury.  Mike Flanagan, the stalwart center, came in the third, and they picked up Marco Rivera, the future-HoF guard, in the sixth.  If the Lions could duplicate that kind of success for this draft, a worst-to-first turnaround wouldn't be so farfetched.

“My philosophy on offense is to first run the ball, especially in the NFC North, when it gets cold in the wintertime. Although two of you have domes, you have to run the ball because that keeps the defense off the field, that gets time of possession correct, that makes us wear the other team down, and that wins ballgames. Passing game looks nice. Calvin’s a great receiver. You have to get him the ball. You have to have a great complementary passing game, but at the same time, you must be able to run the ball in this league to get by.”

This philosophy is exactly the kind of team that Lions fans would love to root for: punish them with a grinder like Kevin Smith, then kill them with Calvin Johnson over the top.  And what about the defense?

“Defensively, I come from a 3-4 scheme. I’ve been in a 4-3 scheme. You want to have the personnel to kind of fit what you do. If you don’t, you can have a hybrid version of a 4-3 until you can get a 3-4 scheme in place. … If Ernie (Sims) or (Cliff) Avril or those guys don’t fit a 3-4, we’ll play a 4-3. . . . I would be working towards [a 3-4] as long as I have the personnel. … Without having the defense in place here, you have to see what the personnel looks like on the other side of the ball, and you have to draft and do free agency accordingly.”

I've said before that the transition to the 3-4 is going to take a pretty huge roster overhaul.  We have the bodies for the 3-4 defensive ends, and a perfect 3-4 pass-rushing OLB in Cliff Avril.  However, the other linebackers are all all about 25 to 30 pounds too light to play in the 3-4, and we lack the centerpiece of the 3-4, the lynchpin, the key at the point of attack: the nose tackle.  A 3-4 NEEDS a physically dominating two-gap nose tackle--and not only are they really hard to come by in general, there's only one to be had in this draft: Boston College's B.J. Raji.  He might be available with the 20th pick . . . but even with him, you are looking at a two- or three-year reclamation project before this defense is even 'good', let alone 'great'.  Would Bowles have that long?

It all remains to be seen.  Bowles has been brushed under the rug by those talking Lions football, but as of right now he is one of two candidates to have met with Big Willie Style himself, and as of right now there are no others scheduled.  There are a lot of positive indicators around Bowles, but I'm not convinced that he's ready, or that now is the right time.  If Bowles is the hire, I will definitely be biting my nails until I see his Lions take the field in September.

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