One Man's Trash: Ashlee Palmer to the Lions

Yesterday, the Lions acquired former Bills OLB Ashlee Palmer.  Palmer, a 2009 undrafted free agent out of Ole Miss, played 14 games for the Bills last season, including two starts.  The Lions’ interest was probably piqued in fourth preseason game, when Palmer started against them, and had five solo tackles, an assist, and a pass defensed. 

That's quite the season for an undrafted rookie.  Check out his performance against the Jets in week 6: he got the start, six solo tackles (none on special teams, all as an LB), and a pass defensed.  So what would cause them to let such a promising young player go?  The Bills’ new head coach, Chan Gailey, wants to switch to a 3-4.  Quoth Gailey:

There’s two things involved here. One, 3-4 personnel allows you when you start there to create more problems for the offense.  That’s the No. 1 thing. You are creating more problems. I know the problems it gives us offensively to have to prepare for that. You get to some nickel situations and now it’s back to 4-2 with the nickel guy in there. Now you’ve got to prepare for that.

A 3-4 defense doesn’t cause an offense a lot of problems—a good 3-4 defense does.  A bad 3-4 defense sucks just as much as a bad 4-3 defense does—likewise, a good 4-3 defense causes just as many problems for an offense as a good 3-4 does.  The schemes have different inherent strengths, but what matters most is the talent and execution.

The Bills's 4-3 has been somewhere between pretty good and really good over the past decade or so; their problem has been an inconsistent running game and terrible quarterback play.  Dismantling the only part of a team that was working makes no sense to me—but I’m glad Chan Gailey decided to do it, because their loss is our gain.

Gunther Cunningham caused a bit of a flap recently, when he hinted that Kansas City’s switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 was forcing them let good young players go—players he knew well, like Turk McBride.  Jason Hunter’s another young Lions role player, and he was ousted in Green Bay when they switched alignments.

It’s true that Ashlee Palmer isn’t going to step in and outperform Ernie Sims—he may not even make the roster.  But this is a kid who stepped in and made himself valuable in a good defense, with no expectations whatsoever.  If DeAndre Levy really is going to start in the middle this year, then a committed, driven young player like that will doubtlessly be a factor in relief of Sims.

It’s good to see Martin Mayhew using and abusing that waiver priority again.  Lions’ll continue to have dibs on almost everyone when good young players are trashed due to a scheme change—here’s hoping that sifting through them all uncovers some treasures.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Defensive Tackles

*NOTE: VIDDLER HAS TAKEN DOWN ALL MY FILM CLIPS AND BANNED ME.  WORKING ON IT.

Here are my “bottom line” summaries of each of the defensive tackles on the roster, as of the end of the 2008 season:

Cory Redding: The Lions are committed to Redding, money-wise, for at least 2009 and maybe 2010.  Look for him to be starting as a 4-3 UT or 3-4 DE/NT in '09.

Shaun Cody: the Lions' interest in retaining Cody will probably depend on the chosen defensive alignment.  If they choose a 3-4, they may pay to keep him as an end. If they stay in a 4-3, he could be allowed to walk.

Andre Fluellen: a talented natural one-gap player who could blossom into a force as he goes through NFL training and nutrition. In 2009 I see him as a 4-3 SDE/UT, or a 3-4 DE.

Landon Cohen: Cohen is a true 4-3 one-gap nose tackle who was born a little too small. If he could add a lot of bulk he could stay at NT--otherwise, he's another 4-3 UT/3-4 DE project.

Chuck Darby: Darby could make a good 3-4 end, but would be a liability at NT. No matter the alignment, Darby is a valuable rotational player who brings emotional leadership on and off the field--and comes at a low cost. If he'll stay, we should keep him.

Langston Moore: Moore will probably be the first guy cut . . . if he sticks around, he'll be 4-3 DT depth.

It’s obvious that Mayhew and Schwartz saw the exact same thing that you and I do in this list: six players who have no business starting in the NFL, all of whom barely flirt with 300 pounds.  Of these, only Fluellen and Cohen remain on the roster.  Redding, of course, was flipped for Julian Peterson in a truly excellent trade.  He played 15 games for the Seahawks, starting only 3, and managed just 18 tackles (16 solo) and two sacks.
I had very high hopes for Andre Fluellen—but they still can’t figure out if he is an end or a tackle.  He was cycled between the two spots constantly, filling in wherever needed.  I said in last year’s breakdown that:

I see him as a replacement for Cory Redding: a big, lean defensive tackle with a motor and tackling skills . . . I think if he could add 20 or 30 pounds over the next several years and work on his strength and technique, his short, wide frame and high motor could allow him to be a pocket-collapsing nose tackle.

Shockingly, Fluellen’s 2009 production was almost identical to that of Redding’s: in 14 games (3 starts), Flu garnered 18 tackles (9 solo) and 1.5 sacks.  I no longer think he has NT potential in either alignment; he lacks the natural bulk to be a run-stopper.  His body may yet mature, but he’s just not built like a natural 1-technique DT.
We saw evidence of this in Week 8, against the Rams.  Here are two plays where Flu is asked to line stop the run as 1-technique:

On the first play, we see Flu get good burst and initial penetration.  He follows Jackson’s first steps, to the strong side of the field (bottom of the frame).  Unfortunately, it’s a counter.  Jackson cuts back to the weak side, the guard easily seals Fluellen off, and Andre can only crane his head around as Jackson runs past.  Compounding matters, the weakside end took a very wide path upfield, leaving a five-yard-wide hole filled only by 188-pound Kevin Hobbs.  The results are predictable.
On the second play, it's a simple affair: he gets blown off the ball.  Flu’s manhandled by the guard, technically doubled by the tackle—who hardly needs bother—and keeps getting pushed back until Jackson slams into him, seven yards downfield.  Not what you want from your nose tackle on a first-and-10 run up the middle.
On the other hand, Fluellen’s athleticism tantalizes:

This is a wide receiver screen, a play where a defensive tackle almost cannot make an impact.  However, we see him use that burst to shoot through the gap the pulling guard just vacated, getting in the backfield before the center can lay hands on him.  The quarterback has already released the ball, so Flu turns to the sideline without slowing down.  He pursues to the end of the play—and, if the receiver had shaken the corner and cut inside, he might have made the tackle.  A sideline-to-sideline DT?
Here're a couple of very interesting clips from the Redskins game:

This is the 3-3-5 nickel alignment that, when discussed in the preseason, sent Lions fans into a speculative tizzy.  These were on the Redskins’ second-to-last drive, and the Lions used this alignment almost exclusively—drawing a delay-of-game the first time they deployed it.  Sammie Hill, however, was on the sidelines with an ankle sprain, so Andre Fluellen was called upon to play nose tackle.
On the first play, Gun has the linebackers do a presnap dance all up and down the line, suggesting several different blitzes.  When the snap does come, the linebackers all drop back into coverage, and Fluellen ends up mostly one-on-one with giant guard Derrick Dockery.  After a decent initial push gets stymied, Flu keeps the motor going, and manages to get upfield—even forcing a mild hold!
On the second play (and other plays on that drive that I didn’t clip), the ‘Skins took no chances.  Flu is triple-teamed, while the ends are merely blocked one-on-one.  Though the third guy is mostly there for moral support—the center and right guard pretty much neutralize Fluellen—it’s nice to see another team make absolutely sure Flu doesn’t get free while the QB is waiting for deep routes to develop.
This is the duality of Fluellen: he's a very interesting inside-outside prospect, an undeniably talented player who’s far more athletic than a man his size has a right to be.  However, he’s a very, very long way from being a complete defensive tackle.  He cannot consistently hold the line against big guards, and is consistently neutralized by double teams.  However, the Lions’ lack of depth along the defensive line is such that his versatility and potential nearly ensure his roster spot for 2010.
Bottom line: Fluellen is a very versatile, high-effort player only two years removed from being a third-round draft pick.  Whether he plays inside, outside, or both in 2010, Flu should get plenty of rotational snaps next season.
One of the biggest surprises of training camp was Landon Cohen. Coming out of college at 6’-3 1/2”, 278 pounds, the Lions picked Cohen in the seventh round of the 2008 draft, and immediately threw him on the Rod Marinelli Under Tackle Pile. A year later, he added over twenty pounds of pure muscle, proved he could bench 225 pounds fifty times in a row, and earned a spot in the rotation.
Cohen is extremely lean, and very athletic—he ran track during all four of his years at Ohio University—and yet he’s powerful enough to play DT in the NFL. I happened to bump into him at the “Lions Uncaged!” fan event, and I was completely blown away by his physique. At his bigger weight, he’s not just lean—he’s cut, especially in the upper body.
Let's bring up my scouting report from last year again:

Cohen is a true 4-3 one-gap nose tackle who was born a little too small. If he could add a lot of bulk he could stay at NT--otherwise, he's another 4-3 UT/3-4 DE project.

Up to a listed 300 pounds from his original 278, Cohen has indeed "added a lot of bulk", and the Lions have used him as both a 1-tech nose tackle and a 3-tech under tackle in their 4-3 alignment this year. I'm not sure he'll ever have the junk in the trunk needed to be an immovable run-stopping 1-tech, but if he hasn’t yet maxxed out his frame, his potential is great.
What I like from Cohen is his patience—much like a tailback who waits for a hole and then explodes, Cohen has a great sense of where and when a crease in the line will open up.  Watch these two runs from the Rams game; see how he first moves laterally, then bursts past the center:

That motor and burst is great, but he's still got to be able to win one-on-ones in order to be more than a situational player. Here are a couple of clips that show him getting a lot of upfield push--even if he doesn’t make the play, he beats his man and limits the offense’s options.  He’ll have to do this more consistently, and actually make those plays, to win a full-time starting gig, but for now, this shows a lot of progress:

Here's one more I liked. This is the 4th-and-1 goal line stand from the Redskins game. Cohen's lined up as an end, and again he shows that knack for rushing through the gaps opened by center or guard motion.  If you’re wondering which Lion is Cohen, he’s the one who gets a couple yards into the backfield.

The run was designed to go outside of the OT, so Cohen couldn't make the play.  But again, we see his quick feet, upper body strength, and instincts making up for what he lacks in bulk.  Unlike Fluellen, he’s not a straight-line runner who could play outside.  He’s a true DT with good short-area quickness.
This is a good example of how you can't scout body types by listed size: Fluellen is theoretically 6’-2”, 302, and Cohen is listed at 6'-3", 300.   But look at Cohen in that last clip: as the camera zooms in from behind the Lions’ line, you can see Cohen’s shoulders are so wide, his jersey has to crease to stretch over his pads.  He’s built like a DT, he’s just not yet a finished example of one.
Bottom line: Cohen is rapidly developing from a seventh-round flier into a useful rotational DT. While he'll never be a 320-pound line-clogger, he's only 23.  If he focuses on lower-body development, improves his leverage, and continues to hone his technique, he’ll be a very nice complement to/backup for/situational replacement of Sammie Hill.
The Lions’ biggest free agent signing—in at least three senses of the word—was former Raiders, Saints, Packers, Falcons, Jaguars, and Falcons DT Grady Jackson.  Standing 6’-2”, 345 pounds, Jackson’s picture may as well hang in the dictionary next to the word stopgap:  “something that fills the place of something else that is lacking”.  Obviously, there was a big, empty space in the middle of the Lions’ defensive line—and Grady Jackson, at least partially, filled it.
The excitement when the Lions snagged Jackson was palpable.  Jackson was an immediate infusion of legitimate run-stopping ability, something the Lions had absolutely none of in 2008.  I gushed that he’d be worth a half a yard-per-carry all by himself!  Actually, this might have been true; the Lions’ opponent’s gross YpC for 2009 was 4.42, down from 5.14 last season (-0.72 YpC).
Jackson was brought in explicitly as a situational player, not a full-time starter.  As a line-clogging run stopper, he really isn’t much use in passing situations anyway.  He was even deactivated for the Seattle game, because their running scheme is mostly draws and stretches—as Schwartz put it, "That's sideways chasing, and that's not his forte".
Unfortunately, even in his specific niche, Jackson wasn't an instant hit.  He was in and out of training camp--first battling an illness, then dealing with his brother's stunning, bizarre, depressing murder case.  Grady also had a four-game suspension hanging over his head, thanks to the well-known tale of the NFL and StarCaps.
Right up until the end of the preseason, it was unknown whether the Lions would have Jackson available.  Fortunately, Jackson wasn’t forced to serve that suspension at the beginning of the season.  Unfortunately, he didn’t help all that much either:

The first play, we see something that looks depressingly like 2008: both Grady (NT, towards top), and Sammie Hill (UT, towards bottom), are both driven way, way, way off the ball—Grady’s even being singled here!  Depressingly, this happened quite a bit in the Saints game.  The Saints' LG, Carl Nicks, absolutely owned Grady in this game.  He goes 6'-5", 343, but I was apalled by how a second-year 5th-round draft pick just pushed around one of the more prolific run-stoppers of recent NFL history.
The second play on that clip is a little more like it--Grady's briefly doubled, and gets pushed back--but then he stands his ground, gets an arm out and ends up making the tackle.  This is hardly an amazing play, but it's one that would never have been made if Cory Redding and Andre Fluellen were our starting tackles.
While reviewing the film, I found a disturbing tendency: a positively Rogers esque tendency to be unblockable when the Lions are already winning.  Check out these two plays from the Redskins game:

Seriously, this is heroic one-on-one domination, in both plays.  Look at the explosion Jackson gets off the line!  He sends his man reeling and flailing backwards with just his initial punch, then rushes, re-engages, and gets up in Campbell's grill.  In the sescond play, we see Jackson go low--real low.  He dives down underneath the right guard, gets into the backfield untouched, if on the ground, then does a push-up and makes an ankle tackle.  That's an incredible hustle play--and one I don't see on film when the score is 0-10, opponent instead of 10-0, Lions.
Here are two clips that are exactly what the Lions expect of Grady--no more, and no less:

In the first clip, we see Grady hold the point of attack.  Unfortunately, he doesn't make the play, but he at least gets a little push and fights off the block.  In the second play, he's initially doubled.  When the guard releases, Grady sees the tailback come back his way, and he gets an arm free to make the tackle.  Again, no world-destroying, just exactly what the Lions got him for.
The Rams game also bolstered my play-when-he-wanna-play theory.  Here are two plays, both classic DT situations with the Lions still in the game:

In the first one, it's a critical 3rd-and-1, with the Lions down 2-10.  The Rams make the critical mistake of trying to block Grady with one man. Not only does he blow that dude up, when Steven Jackson runs around Grady, he turns and pursues.  Like, he runs downfield!
In the second one, the Rams are backed up on their own 1-yard-line.  It's a tie game, and Grady smells two points.  Again, inexplicably, the Rams try to block him with only a guard--and if their tailback was any less of a juggernaut, Grady'd have gotten his man.
It's clear that the 10-to-15 snaps per game that Grady Jackson can contribute will not make for an effective run defense.  However, he was absolutely critical to the improvement the Lions’ run defense made this season—from “apocalyptically terrible” to merely bad.  Grady’s under contract for two more years, and as a situational/rotational guy, he’s still useful.
Bottom line: Jackson turned in a B- performance in doing exactly what the Lions asked—stop the run on 1st and 10.  Even if the Lions draft or sign a three-down starter, Jackson can still contribute in that role.  I expect to see him back on the roster in 2010, though hopefully not as a “starter”.
Outside of Matthew Stafford, no 2009 Lions draft pick was more talked-about, or more important to the future of the team, than DT Sammie Hill.  A 6’-4”, 329-pound man-child from tiny Stillman College, Hill came to the NFL a tabula rasa, a natural born defensive tackle with zero coaching or technique base. 
Jim Schwartz immediately compared Hill—and scouting hill—to Leon Lett, the small-school big man who helped anchor the Dallas Cowboys dynasty of the mid-90s:

He was playing teams like Northern State and some of these others; I can't even remember some of the schools. The film was real grainy. You don't have the nice sideline and end zone (views), you got end zone that looks like it was filmed from the moon. And you just saw one guy that was twice as big as everybody else and then there'd be a pile and then you'd see somebody get knocked out of the pile the other way and you'd know that Leon was there.
With Sammie, it was a lot of the same thing. Part of the film – literally, they took it from the booth and you can see the reflection of the guy filming it more than you can see down on the field. But then again, you see guys get knocked backwards a lot. You see him show up around the quarterback. He played end in a 3-4 and they used him to sort of shut down half the field.

The consensus was that Hill was a 2-3 year project, an intriguing prospect with the tools to, someday, with the right coaching, develop into a special player.  Instead, the desperately undersized Lions plunked Hill into the starting lineup from Day One.
Hill—despite never having attended an NFL game prior to being drafted—walked onto the field and did pretty well for a rookie.  He still took his lumps, though:

One thing I noticed all season long was Hill's susceptibility to trap blocking, downblocking, reach blocking, zone blocking, or really anything that wasn’t straightforward one-on-one or two-on-one.  It’s like it didn’t occur to Sammie that anyone other than the guy directly across from him might exist.  As strong as Landon Cohen’s instincts were about the offensive line’s intentions, Hill’s were that weak.
To be fair, this is to be expected from a guy who was playing 3-4 end at a D-II school against guys half his size nine months before the above clip was shot.  To be fairer, the guard doing the blocking in that clip is 2010 Pro Bowl starter Jahri Evans; it's not like Hill was getting dominated by a scrub.
Even having taken his early lumps, Hill's natural talent was apparent.  Here's a beautiful clip of him holding his own against a true double-team, fighing them off, and then contributing to the play.  This isn't a chip, or an assist, this is a center and guard both blocking Sammie with everything they've got.  Yet, after initially getting pushed back, he recovers, and holds his ground:

Unfortunately, Hill "had an ankle" in that 'Skins game (to use The Grandmasters' parlance).  He missed the next three games, plus the bye, then came back against the Rams . . . strong:

Here we see two run plays where Hill proves he's too strong to block with just one guy.  Unfortunately, he seems a little more concerned with beating his man than actually tackling the runningback—but that much penetration forces an offense to adjust, and that’s what you need from a DT.
Frankly, folks, I think Sammie Hill is going to be seen as one of the sharpest late-round picks since Cortland Finnegan—a Schwartz-polished seventh-round diamond in the rough.  Hill is the Lions' only quality tackle, and we're only seeing the beginnings of what he could develop into.
He only mustered 14 solo tackles, and 12 assists, in his 12 starts.  He’s no pass rusher—he didn’t have a single sack—but he showed strength, power, and athleticism in a perfectly-sized package.  My hope is that a full offseason of NFL nutrition, strength training, and technique coaching with DL coach Bob Karmelowicz, the man who tutored Jared Allen in Kansas City, will help him take that next big step.
Bottom Line: Sammie Hill is already the Lions’ best defensive tackle, and should prove to be much better in 2010 and beyond.  He has the size, strength, and athleticism to become a perennial Pro Bowler, and his steady improvement from preseason to the end of the season shows the effort and coachability he’ll need to get there.  He’ll start for the Lions this season, and for many more to come.

Summary

The Lions are still desperate at this position.  They started with six players who, as I said, have no business starting in the NFL—and now they have a young, three-down starter on the rise, an aging situational run-stopper, a young, rotational, three-down NT/UT with upside, and a young inside-outside ‘tweener.
In order to continue building the defense that Schwartz and Cunningham envision, they'll have to acquire another starting defensive tackle, one with some real explosion and pass-rush ability.  Cohen is showing that he could develop into that player—if a little too small—but he won’t be that player next season.  Fluellen just isn’t built big enough to be an every-down DT in this system—and though the tools and potential are there, I haven’t yet seen anything from him that shows he can actually rush the passer, from either the end or tackle spot.
Reader SomeChoi commented that there’s a disconnect here between the highlights and warm fuzzy words above, and the apparent lack of production from the defensive tackle spot during the season.  As I said in the comments, this is because you’re seeing highlights and lowlights; it wasn’t feasible to show you all hundreds of snaps of our defensive tackles failing to be awesome.
Another factor, however, was that apparent weakness in the defensive line play turned out to be errors by the linebackers or secondary.  Yes, Julian Peterson, Larry Foote, Ernie Sims and DeAndre Levy are all massive upgrades from last season, when street free agent Ryan Nece was arguably our best linebacker.  Still, the LB play was wildly inconsistent throughout the season—often playing well when the line did not, and vice versa.
All that having been said, the run-stopping is still inadequate, and the interior pass rush is nonexistent.  Though flawed linebacker and safety play exacerbated the insufficiency up front, the insufficiency is real.
Bottom line: There’s no doubt that the defensive line is much stouter this season than last—that 0.72 YpC improvement in the run defense had to come from somewhere!—this is still a D+/C- line.  The Lions absolutely must add an impact starter.  Whether that is an elite DT talent in the draft—as in, with the #2 overall pick—or, by trade for a veteran starter, or by making a splash in the free agent market, it must be done.

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the watchtower: lions at saints

When I was a little kid, children’s television was in the middle of changing from puppets on Saturday morning to a 20-channel, 24-hour, on-demand, companion-Web-site multimedia extravaganza.  There was an all-kid’s-programming network, Nickelodeon, but there wasn’t enough actual programming.  What to do?  Re-run old programming, of course!

So it came to be that I would watch old episodes of Lassie, in all of their black-and-white glory.  One of the recurring characters was the park ranger, who would sometimes be shown at his post, in a forest fire watchtower.

It seems like it would be easy to just, you know, look for fire—but without knowing exactly where in all those miles of forest a fire is, a lone ranger couldn’t possibly prevent it from spreading in time.  But by spotting the vector to the smoke from the tower, and with help from some known reference points, he can find the heart of the blaze.

Using known variables like the latitude and longitude of the tower, the position of the sun, the direction and size of the smoke, etc., he could input some numbers into pre-calculated tables, work out the rough location of the smoke’s source, hop in his truck, and go tell those punk kids to douse their campfire.

For this season, the Lions are essentially a blank slate.  We’ve never seen most of these players, they’ve never played with each other, and they’re being plugged into all-new coaching, training, conditioning, and schemes.  So, for this season, I’m going to whip out some tables and numbers of my own, and see if I can match up the Lions, scheme for scheme, with their opponents.

Lin.	Wil.	OR	Opg	Ypa	Ypc	DR	Dpg	Pts	Ypa	Int	Ypc	Fum	Sck
MIN	BUF	8	24.4	6.60	5.30	27	24.8	39	6.24	0	5.46	5-3	5-45
MIN	BUF	6	25.3	8.18	4.72	5	16.6	18	6.80	0	2.89	0-0	3-15
STL	WAS	10	22.9	6.69	4.26	20	19.2	37	10.21	0	5.05	1-1	1-6

What does all this mean?  The first two columns represent each coach/coordinator, and the team they they were coaching at the time they played each other.  The “OR” and “DR” are the points-per-game rank of their offense and defense, respectively.  This should give a general idea of the talent and execution level of the schemes—you see Linehan’s units were ranked 8th, 6th, and 10th in scoring offense in the three games his teams played against a Gregg Williams defense.  The “Opg” and “Dpg” figures are the actual per-game points either scored or allowed by the  units during the given contest. “Ypa” and “Ypc” are passing yards per attempt, and rushing yards per carry.   “Pts” is points scored in the game; “Int” is interceptions.  “Pyds” and “Ryds” are the total passing and rushing yards accumulated. “Ypa” and “Ypc” are passing yards-per-attempt and rushing yards-per-carry, and “Fum” and “Sck” are fumbles-lost and sacks-yardage.

In the year of the first contest, we see Linehan’s offense scoring 24.4 ppg, and the Bills allowing 24.8 ppg.  The NFL-relative rankings show that the Vikings were a talented offense indeed, but the Bills’ defense was . . . lacking.  The result was explosive; 39 points (despite three lost fumbles), and 5.46 yards per carry for 213 yards.  5 sacks for 45 yards lost really hurts the team passing  stats and team yards-per-attempt; with in-his-youth Daunte Culpepper at the helm, that’s scary. 

It looks like despite Linehan's three-man RBBC running all over everywhere, and a mobile QB in the pocket, Williams’ pass rush prevented the run advantage from developing into a passing advantage as well.  Still, that kind of wanton running success is not to be discounted—and we see that passing-yards-per-attempt and rushing yards-per-attempt were right in line with the average for the year.  It looks as though Williams’s blitzing, though effective, merely prevented the Vikings’ passing game from exploding far above average.

Let's look at the next meeting.  Linehan’s offense has improved in execution and talent--but Williams’s defense has exploded, going from the 27th-ranked scoring defense to the 5th.  This immediately shows up in the stats.  Though the Vikings were scoring 25.3 points per game, passing for 8.18 yards per attempt, and rushing for 4.72 yards per carry that season, against the Bills they scored only 18, passed for 6.80, and rushed for 2.89.  Again we see high pressure; Culpepper is sacked 3 times for 15 yards.  Minnesota’s offensive output for that game is much closer to the Bills’ defensive season average than their own.  Therefore, given equal talent and execution, Gregg Williams’s attacking 3-4 defense will disproportionately disrupt Scott Linehan’s balanced offense.

Finally, the last game.  Linehan’s unit is again one of the better in the game, ranked 10th in ppg output with 22.9.  Williams’ is mediocre, ranked 20th with 19.2 ppg allowed.  The expected outcome would be Minnesota matching their season average, or mildly exceeding it, but no—the Rams exploded for 37 points, passing for a whopping 10.21 yards per attempt, and rushing for a stout 5.05 yards per carry.  Also, look at the sacks: just one for six yards.  As all three metrics of output--per-play passing, per-play rushing, and points scored—are way above their averages for the season, I’m going to say that given superior talent and execution, and/or excellent pass protection, Scott Linehan’s balanced offense disproportionately gives Gregg Williams’ attacking 3-4 defense fits.

Now, the other way around: Gunther Cunningham's 4-3 "with 3-4 principles" (extreme blitz ratio, hard edge pressure, funneling the run inside) versus Sean Payton's pass-heavy offense:

Pay.	Gun.	OR	Opg	Ypa	Ypc	DR	Dpg	Pts	Ypa	Int	Ypc	Fum	Sck
NYG	KCC	21	18.4	6.26	4.19	23	21.5	13	6.12	3	3.16	1-0	1-7
NYG	TEN	22	20.0	7.20	3.80	11	20.2	29	7.86	0	2.48	0-0	1-0
DAL	KCC	15	20.3	6.68	3.57	16	20.3	31	9.76	0	4.60	1-0	4-16

In the first matchup, neither the offense nor defense possesses exceptional talent.  The offense is scoring 18.4 ppg, and the defense allowing 21.5 .  You would expect the offense to mildly outperform its average—yet, that doesn’t occur: they muster only 13 points. 

The per-play passing success—6.26 ypa vs. 6.12 ypa—doesn’t significantly vary, but the running game is throttled down from 4.19 ypc to 3.16.  The Chiefs also force three interceptions from Kerry Collins, and sack him once.  Since we have more data in this matchup, let’s keep looking before drawing any conclusions.

The second game is a bit of an outlier, as Gunther is only a linebackers coach here—but the DC is Jim Schwartz, so like referee Mills Lane, I’ll allow it.  In this case, the Titans’ D is ranked 11th in the NFL, and the Giants’ offense is ranked 22nd.  However, the ppg averages are 20.3 allowed and 20.0 scored, so I would expect Payton’s offense to mildly underperform.  Instead, they rack up 29 points, despite running with far less success (3.80 avg., 2,48 actual), and passing only a little above average (7.20 avg., 7.86 actual).  

However, look at the big plays: 0 INTs, 0 fumbles, 1 sack for no lost yards.  Despite having good talent, and swallowing the run, Schwartz does not disrupt the rhythm of Payton’s passing offense, and so the Titans are disproportionately scored upon.

In the third game, the Cowboys are much more talented than either of Payton’s previous Giants units, and are ranked 15th in scoring output.  Cunningham’s Chiefs are ranked 16th—and both units’ scoring average is the same:  20.3.  I would strongly expect a Cowboy score of around 20.  Somehow, the Cowboys again produce far above expectations, scoring 31 points.  They pass much better than usual (6.68 avg., 9.76 actual), and run much better than usual, too (3.57 avg, 4.60 actual).  Cunningham’s defense produces plenty of sacks, 4 for a loss of 16, but, crucially, forces no turnovers.  This leads me to believe that given equal talent, Cunningham’s hyperagressive 4-3 is extremely effective against Payton’s pass-heavy offense, but only if that aggression leads to mistakes and turnovers—otherwise, the holes in the defense will be exploited. Effective quarterback play may neutralize the defensive advantage.

Last season, there was one more meeting between Payton’s Saints and Cunningham’s Chiefs.  However, though Cunningham was the coordinator in name, he was executing coach Herman Edwards’ Tampa 2.  As we’re trying to isolate scheme against scheme, including that data would only throw off the results.

So, where does this leave us? We know that the Saints have struggled on defense as of late; last season they were the 26th-best scoring defense, and the 23rd-best yardage defense. If you factor in the difficulty of transitioning to a new base alignment, the Saints may again be afflicted with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Lions' offense does have an edge in talent; Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson should both prove very difficult for the Saints to stop.  If Matt Stafford begins the game looking for Johnson deep, the Lions could quickly rock the Saints' defense back on their heels. However, if the Saints' radical revamp of their defense is an immediate net positive, or if Stafford throws an early pick, the advantage will swing back to the home team.

Though there's historical evidence that a decent Cunningham defense, when successful, is disproportionately disruptive of a Payton offense, the talent gulf between the Lions' D and the Saints' O is enormous. Unless the Lions generate three or more turnovers, I don't see their defense having any kind of success in slowing the Saints down.

Therefore, the most probable outcome of this game is a shootout that the Lions lose. There is a chance that the Lions' defense disrupts the passing game early, and that the Lions score on their first two posessions, thereby allowing the defense to safely turn up the heat--and the offense to put it in the cooler. However, the offense will have to overcome a systemic disadvantage with talent, and the defense will have to overcome a significant talent gap with a perfectly-executed gameplan.

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the first line of defense?

It’s a little bit difficult to believe that I’m about to write about the desperate, unsettled nature of the Lions’ defensive line.  After all, it was just three years ago that the Lions hired Rod Marinelli—one of the NFL’s top defensive line coaches, and reputed leaguewide to be a brilliant teacher and motivator.  He was going to revamp the Lions’ perennially toothless defense, and leading the way would be a Tampa-like front four, our very own Warren Sapp, Booger McFarland, Simeon Rice and Greg Spires to brutalize quarterbacks with.

The plan was, our fierce, fast, athletic line would crash through the gaps, and terrorize opposing quarterbacks.  Since the D-line would be so dominant, blitzing would rarely be required; our small, fast linebackers could park in short zones and deny the offense the short passing game.  With the terrorizing defensive line up front, and the blanketing zone behind, the Lions’ defense was going to be a nightmare for opposing offensive coordinators.

Yes, well.  We knew things weren’t quite going to go to plan when Marinelli’s “top priority” was to sign Kalimba Edwards to a massive five-year extension, based on an Avril-esque rookie season and three years of groin injuries.  This started a chain of events—bad signings, draft misses, Marinelli “I’ll coach him up” hubris, trades, and injuries--that left the Lions’ defensive line in its current state: a guy who couldn’t even make the Packers’ camp roster now has “the inside track” on starting at left end.

There was an incredible kids’ show on PBS when I was small called “Square One TV”.  Famous for its nonstop U-of-M football in-jokes, the show was somewhere between Sesame Street, a sketch comedy show, and a cartoon—all with math as the focus.  The latter half of each episode would feature “Mathnet”, a Dragnet spoof that followed the adventures of two detectives who would solve crimes with math.  Often, when they were completely flummoxed, with several conflicting leads, they would “play ‘What Do We Know?’”, and the answers would reveal themselves.  It’s played like this:

• We know that Grady Jackson is listed at 6’-2”, 345#.  We know he’s a natural wide-bodied, two-gap run-stuffing defensive tackle, of which the Lions’ staff would love to have two in the center of their defensive line.  We know he’s 36 years old, and will likely only see action in running situations, i.e., first down and second-and-short.  Despite being limited to 15-25 snaps a game, Gunther Cunningham admits that “when you get him in there, everything else goes good.”  We know he will likely be (unjustly) suspended for the first four games.
  
  
• We know that Chuck Darby is listed at 6’-0”, 297#.  We know that he’s a natural one-gap run-stuffer, blessed with an incredible motor, big heart, and not much else.  Darby is an overachiever who plays at his absolute limit every second he’s on the field, but he—like Jackson—is getting up there in years (33), and is best suited for running down duty only.
  
  
• We know that Landon Cohen is listed at 6’-3”, 274#--though he says he was up to 285 last year, and weighed in to training camp at 302.  We know the Lions drafted him in the seventh round of the 2008 draft.  We know he did an absolutely astonishing 50 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press at the outset of training camp—for comparison, B.J. Raji only mustered 33 at the combine this year.  We know Tom Kowalski reported that he’s been making a splash at camp.
  
  
• We know that Andre Fluellen is listed at 6’-2”, 296#.  We know he’s an athletically gifted 2008 third-round pick.  We know he played at both DT and LE last season, and, according to the official site, allowed only 1.74 yards per play directed at him his rookie season.  We have absolutely no clue where the official site got that stat from, how it’s derived, or where we could get it for more players, but we sure wish we knew.  We also have no word on his camp performance to date.
  
  
• We know that Sammie Hill is listed at 6’-4”, 329#.  We know he was drafted out of tiny Stillman College in the fourth round of this April’s draft.  We know he’s raw and unpolished, but has the physical tools to remind Gunther Cunningham of Albert Haynesworth.  We know his technique and conditioning are a long way from being ready for the big leagues.  We know he was drafted to play Major League Baseball.  We know he is very impressed by hotel rooms (the famous YouTube video of him and fellow RRA clients doing the “Cribs” thing at their agent-supplied hotel room has apparently been taken down).
  
  
• We know that Shaun Smith is listed at 6’-2”, 325#, and has been a moderately effective two-gap DT and DE in the Browns’ 3-4.  We know he was on the outs in Cleveland for motivation problems—motivation problems paired with a penchant for mouthing off to the media.  We know that immediately after signing, he told the Detroit media that ex-Lions DT Shaun Rogers would love to come back to Detroit.  We know The Grandmaster thinks Smith’s talents fit the Lions’ needs.
  
  
• We know that Orien Harris is listed at 6’-3”, 300#, we know he’s a high-motor guy, and has been on six different rosters in his four years in the league.  We know the Lions’ brass thinks he had a better chance of making the roster than Ronald Curry.
  
  
• We know that there’s no way the Lions keep eight defensive tackles on the roster, so John Gill won’t make the team. UPDATE! About an hour after I posted this, John Gill was released.  I apologize to Mr. Gill if I influenced the Lions staff in any way.
  
  
• We know that Cliff Avril is listed at 6’-3”, 253#, though he reported to camp at a lean 260.  We know he’s an explosive edge rusher who led all rookies in sacks last season, in less than half a season’s work.  We know he played mostly outside linebacker at Purdue; the Lions were one of the few teams who saw him as a full-time defensive end.  We know he’s a prototypical 3-4 ROLB, a little bit light for a prototypical 4-3 RE, and probably ten or fifteen pounds shy of the ideal for Schwartz and Cunningham’s new scheme.
  
  
• We know that Dewayne White is listed at 6’-2”, 273#.  We know he was effective in spot duty as a pass rusher in Tampa Bay, and we know that—when healthy—he’s been an effective pass rusher here.  We know he matches the ideal body type and game for a RE in the Lions’ new system.  We know he’s not as effective at rushing the passer from the LE spot, and isn’t the run-stuffer an LE should be.
  
  
• We know that Jared DeVries is out for the season.
  
  
• We know that Ikaika Alama-Francis is listed at 6’-5”, 280#, but that he’s bulked up to 292 in anticipation of switching to tackle.  We know he was a 2007 second-round pick.  We know former NFL head coach Jerry Glanville called him the most talented defensive lineman he’d coached.  We know that with the injury to DeVries, “Five-O” is back at LE.
  
  
• We know that Jason Hunter is listed at 6’-4”, 271#.  We know that he matches the ideal body profile of a DE in Schwartz and Cunningham’s new scheme.  We know he had a promising first few years in Green Bay--including being their best special teams tackler--but that he had no place in their new 3-4 alignment.  We know he has the “inside track” at taking over DeVries’s starting gig.
  
  
• We know that Sean Conover is listed at 6’-5”, 275#, and also fits the physical mold of a Lions DE.  We know he was acquired by the Titans as a rookie free agent, but after two seasons of semi-successful spot duty, he was released.  We know he then kicked off a practice squad tour: the Ravens, Falcons, and Jets all had spots on their practice squads or reserve list for him in 2008.
  
  
• We know that Ryan Kees is 6’-6”, 275#, and also fits the physical mold of a Lions DE.  We know that he tore it up at D-II Saint Cloud State.
  

In true Mathnet style, let’s look for the emergent patterns.  One is obvious: we see that every defensive end the Lions have acquired this offseason goes around 6’-5” and is 270-275 pounds.  This is the body type the Lions would like to see two of set wide, bracing the offensive tackles on either side.  Two ends built like this can set a very hard edge, denying running backs the outside, denying the pitch, disrupting the screen.  Setting these strong ends out wide will force the running backs up the middle.

Speaking of the middle, another pattern emerges here: with Grady Jackson, Sammie Hill, Shaun Smith, and Orien Harris, every defensive tackle the Lions have acquired has been a natural two-gap run stuffer, with a big, wide body.  According to Schwartz, the Lions still use a one-gap responsibility system, but instead of trying to ‘get skinny’ and blast up those gaps with a leading shoulder, the Lions are now squaring up to the gaps, filling them, and then shedding blockers.

According to Nick Cotsonika and Carlos Monarrez of the Free Press, both Jason Hunter and Cliff Avril have been seeing time at both ends, but DeWayne White appears fixed at the right end.  This makes sense; White is a productive veteran who perfectly fits the mold of the new right end.  It will be between the gifted-but-too-small Avril and the bigger-but-less-explosive Hunter for the starting LE spot—but keep in mind, with the high levels of blitz, and extreme situalization of the defense, no matter what the depth chart looks like, Avril will see a “starter”-like snap count.  Ikaika Alama-Francis would have been the perfect left end coming out of college, but he’s about thirty pounds too heavy now; I have no idea if they’ll have him lose weight, or what.  He may challenge Hunter for first- and second-down LE reps.

When Grady Jackson was signed, the prevailing wisdom amongst fans was that he’s be the starting nose tackle and Chuck Darby would be the #2.  However, basing this on little more than hunch, I think the Lions will play them side-by-side on running downs.  Darby’s simply too small to play the nose tackle role in this defense.  Besides, with the employment of the 3-3-5 nickel defense, there may only be two tackles out there on running downs anyway.  If you have two natural run stuffers who aren’t much good for anything else, and only have 15-25 snaps a game in them, why not use them together for 15-25 ‘1st-and-10’s and ‘2nd-and-short’s?  I think Shaun Smith or Sammie Hill will be the #2 ‘bigger’ tackle; Smith if he shuts his mouth and plays well consistently, Hill if he can get his conditioning where it needs to be.  Landon Cohen’s had an incredible camp, and Andre Fluellen really impressed me with his inside/outside athleticism late last season.  I still think the best place for “Five-O” is at the under tackle spot.

So, where does this leave us?  I decided to chart it out, based on everything we that we know, plus a little good old-fashioned hunchwork:

Alignment	LE	UT	NT	RE
Base 4-3 (run)	Hunter/Francis	Darby	Jackson	White/Hunter
Base 4-3 (pass)	Avril/Hunter	Cohen/Fluellen	Smith/Hill	White/Avril
Nickel 4-3	Avril/White	Cohen/Fluellen/ Francis	Smith/Hill/ Francis	Avril/Peterson
Nickel 3-3	Francis/Fluellen/Cohen	--	Smith/Hill	White/Francis/ Fluellen

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thoughts defensive

During the coaching search, I took a hard look at the 2008 Lions, and found that what was supposed to be the strength of the team--the defense--was not only the weakness of the team, it was absolutely rotten.  Miserable.  Historically, epically, shockingly bad.  Here's what I said at the time:

"I think this speaks to the crucial point: as awful as the Lions' woes at quarterback and offensive line have been, it's been the wet-newspaper defense that's really pounded the nails in the Lions' coffin. Just look at the numbers:

* Scoring Defense: Ranked 32nd--and it isn't close for 31st--with 517 points allowed (32.3 per game!). That's over double the amount of points that either the Steelers or Ravens allowed.

* Yardage Defense: Ranked 32nd, with 6,470 yards allowed.

* Passing Defense: Allowing a mere 3,716 yards passing slots the Lions' D 27th here, but that's highly misleading, as no team had fewer passes attempted against them (an average of only 27.7 attempts per game against). Opposing QBs, on the average, had a passer efficiency rating of 110.9--just think about that; every quarterback in the league becomes Steve Young at his peak when facing the 2008 Lions.  

* Rushing Defense: Ranked butt-naked last. 2,754 yards allowed on 536 carries; despite getting run at more times than any other defense save Seattle and Oakland, the Lions still allowed a mind-boggling 5.1 yards per carry. Every running back in the league became Jim Brown against the 2008 Lions.

I knew the defense was dire . . . but looking at the numbers, this is simply unbelievable. What's worse is that the numbers can't show how inopportune this defense was; stuffing the run on first down, getting the sack on second down, allowing the 35-yard completion on third down. Over and over and over and over, the Lions defense would show flashes of what they were meant to be for a play or a series or even a quarter--but when it mattered, the Lions defense could be absolutely counted on to play like they had forgotten to put a few guys out on the field."

Thus, the news of the hiring of Jim Schwartz, a incredibly well-respected defensive coordinator, as the new Lions head coach was welcome news.  The big question became, what would the new philosophy be?  The new direction?  What base alignment would the defense use?  How much of the Millen/Marinelli defensive player would be kept?  How much turnover would there have to be?  How long was this going to take?

I thought that the hiring of the defensive coordinator would answer most, if not all, of those questions . . . instead, the news that it would be former Chiefs DC Gunther Cunningham answered none of those questions.  Cunningham, in his first tour of duty as the Chiefs DC, had overseen one of the most agressive, effective, physical defenses in the history of the game.  He was promoted to head coach--and for a variety of reasons, the defense became less effective.  After being summarily replaced by Dick Vermeil, he landed as the linebackers coach in Tennessee, working under then-Titans DC Jim Schwartz.  When KC's defense struggled under Vermeil's replacement Herman Edwards, the organization offered Gunther his old coordinator's job back, and he accepted.  Though it was expected that Cunnignham would return with a dumpster full of his scrappy, hard-edged defensive knowhow, instead the defense barely changed.  With very little talent on the field, and Edwards' Tampa 2 fingerprints evident on the defensive gameplans, it was assumed that Gunther had either lost his fire--or had no juice.  As a result, the Kansas City defense was nearly as awful as the Lions' in 2008.

Since Cunningham had executed a Tampa 2 scheme in Kansas City, and the Lions' defense had been built to run Rod Marinelli's Tampa 2, would Gunther simply pick up where Marinelli left off?  Would the Lions' hirings herald a return to "Guntherball", or merely represent an attempt to slowly build upon what little Marinelli had achieved?  Cunningham, in his introductory press conference, immediately squashed all doubt:

"I've gone through three years of playing zone defenses because I was loyal to Herm Edwards, that's what he wanted. People here in town knew that I was different than that. My idea is to put a lot of pressure on the quarterback, always has been, always will be. I think Jimmy knows that and I think he's a lot like that, although he was more zone conscious this year than he's ever been. But like I said at the beginning of this conversation I think the two of us will sit down and we'll decide what is the best thing that we can do and that's going to involve the organization's part of whatever Tom (Lewand) and Martin (Mayhew) decide on who we draft on defense and who else we get and how we do it. But my idea of coaching defense, it's explosive, it's aggressive, it's to go after people and make the players do things that they don't think they can do.” [emphasis mine]

I think that all sounded great to everyone at the time, but I'm not sure we really understood the fundamental shift in philosophy that was happening.  Some speculated that a shift to the 3-4 was in the offing, some pointed to the relatively conventional (though excellent) 4-3 scheme that Schwartz employed at Tennessee, and both Schwartz and Cunningham repeatedly said that the alignment and scheme would be fitted to the personnel, and not the other way around.

We knew that the Lions would try and get bigger and tougher along the defensive front--Martin Mayhew said as much the day he and Tom Lewand assumed power.  We see this in the signing of Grady Jackson, the drafting of Sammie Lee Hill (who I've decided to tag "The Candyman" due to the similarity of his name to Sammy Davis, Junior, his jovial nature, and his apparent love of food), and the courting of free agent SDE Kevin Carter.  We also see this in the signing of edge-rushing OLB Julian Peterson, the drafting of downhill smash-up artist DeAndre Levy, and in Ernie Sims's recent WDFN interview where he talks about being freed up to blitz, to play instinctually, and to make plays.  Further, we have Cunningham himself talking about the same thing: Ernie Sims' abilities being unlocked once freed from the shackles of the Tampa 2 system.  This jibes exactly with what I speculated back in January:

"My personal theory is that Sims lost all respect for the defensive coaching staff and the system they taught. Whether he wasn't going full speed, or he was playing with total disregard for the system, Sims was definitely mentally checked out. I think a switch to a system where he gets to blitz, to attack, to run downhill and hit people will be MUCH more to his liking. Sims was named as one of the "three untouchable Lions" by NFL.com's Adam Schefter, and there's a good reason why. Sims' athletic ability is incredible, and when he's engaged he plays with tremendous fire and passion. In a traditional 4-3, where the WLB is asked to attack, attack, attack, I think Ernie Sims could be a tremendous force; a perennial Pro Bowl level defender."

I think the final piece of the puzzle comes in Jim Schwartz's recent 77-minute appearance on WRIF.  No stenographer, or similarly gifted typist that I could find has gone through the hours of drudgery required to actually transcribe this thing, but there was an absolutely illuminating quote buried in the middle of this "interview":

"Here's what we do.  We run a 4-3, but it's a little bit of a hybrid 4-3 in that there are some 3-4 principles.  Meaning this: you're going to see the defensive ends lined up really wide, like a 3-4 outside linebacker.  Their body shape is going to be really similar.  You know, like a 255, 265-pound guy, not your typical 280-, 290-pound defensive end.  They're going to set really really hard edges on the run, they're going to eliminate the boot, they're going to eliminate the stretch play, and we're going to funnel everything back down inside.  So, it has some 3-4 principles in it, but we're going to be based out of a 4-3."

This is really interesting.  This quote ends literally months of speculation as to the Lions' planned defensive scheme.  He says they'll run a 4-3, but will feature smaller--as in Cliff Avril small--defensive ends lined up very wide.  This explains the Lions' rumored heavy interest in 256# Connor Barwin, but doesn't quite jibe with the tire-kicking session they had with massive DE Kevin Carter.  It also doesn't mesh with Martin Mayhew's contention that Cory Redding "would have played outside for us anyway"; even if Redding lost 10-20 pounds to get back to his college weight, he'd still be a "typical 280-, 290-pound defensive end".

My guess is that Schwartz is describing the "design goal", if you will, of the new Lions defense--what the defense should look like after three seasons of cutting out deadwood and acquring talent that fits.  You'll have two two-gap DTs, two natural 330-pounders, clogging up the entire middle of the line.  Outside of them, you'll have two DE/OLB 'tweeners, 265-pound pass rushers, lined up wide of either offensive tackle.  The DEs' job on run downs will be to never let anyone with the ball get outside of them.  They'll push ball carriers back inside, where the Williams Wall-esque tackle pair will eat them.

Behind that front, you'll have three big hitters, three downhill run-and-hit guys.  On running downs, they will fly upfield and pop anybody who slips through the cracks up front--and on passing downs, they will fly upfield and try to bring down the quarterback.  Obviously, some pass coverage by the OLBs will be happening too--but again, like a 3-4, opposing defenses will never know where the blitz is coming from.

I like this.  I really do.  The Lions already have the linebackers for this: Peterson, Sims, Foote, Levy, Dizon, et. al. should be able to execute this defense at a pretty high level right away--and are even in decent shape in three years, with Foote and possibly Peterson gone, and Sims, Levy, and Dizon fully matured.  I like the safeties both now and for three years; Delmas and Bullocks can both cover and both hit.  They should clean up any mess that's left past the front seven, and will also help bail out the corners.

The corners, however, are in very rough shape.  Anthony Henry is dangerously close to being too slow to play corner in the NFL.  Philip Buchanon is a reclamation project who most recently turned in a B+ performance from within the Tampa 2 system--which we all know far too well doesn't ask much of its corners.  Buchanon has the natural talent to be an elite shutdown corner, but we haven't seen that Buchanon in years.  Behind them are Tennessee depth guy Eric King--who Jeff Fisher says can probably "get the job done" as a starter--and nothing but scrubs like Keith Smith and Ramzee Robinson behind them.  In today's NFL, you have to have three solid corners on defense--especially when your system is predicated on pass rush, and your pass rush blows.  The Lions currently have three guys with (in my estimation) 65%, 60%, and 35% chances of playing like "solid corners" in 2009.  The probability that all three will "hit" is low, so CB can be counted on to be a critical weak spot.

Then, of course, there is the small matter of the big guys up front.  The Lions have no Williams wall, or even one Williams.  They have a 36-year-old Williams-type currently going through intense personal pain, and just drafted a proto-Williams who is probably two years away from being ready for prime time.  They also have Chuck Darby, who is not now and will never be a Williams, and Andre Fluellen, who has never been a Williams, but has the frame and athleticism to get there in another year or two.  Darby and Jackson should be able to get away with being a pretty decent run-stopping tackle tandem for about 20 snaps a game, but after that the Lions are down to crossing their fingers and hoping that either Fluellen, Hill, or both miraculously step up. 

So, where does this leave the Lions' defense?  It's going to be better than last year; much better.  Frankly, it has to be--the 2008 Lions' defense was just about as bad as an NFL defense can possibly be.  Practically by definition, there has to be some improvement.  On top of that, the new scheme, as I've pieced together above, should maximize what legitimate NFL talent the Lions have: the pass rushing skills of Cliff Avril, Dewayne White, and Julian Peterson; the hitting ability of Ernie Sims and Larry Foote; the (presumptive) playmaking ability of Louis Delmas.  It should also hide some of the weaknesses: the heavy blitzing should take pressure off the corners, and the hard-hitting linebackers should help make up for some of the lack of talent up front.  Combine all this together, and the Lions defense should be no worse than "signifcantly better but still bad", and--if everything goes perfectly and all the stars align and all the acquisitions work out--could be ranked as high as 10th in the NFL, in terms of scoring defense.

Either way, this defense promises to be entertaining.  When it's successful, it will garner sacks, fumbles, picks--and big hits by the dozen.  When it's unsucessful, it will still be blown off the ball, still be unable to stop the run, still be unable to get off the field, and still susceptible to the deep pass.

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thinking about defense

In the early days of the Grandmaster's reign, there was a lot of speculation about which defensive alignment the Lions would utilize.  A 4-3, which was the base alignment of the previous regime?  Or, a 4-3, which is the alignment that Schwartz used during his entire time in Tennesee?  Or maybe a 4-3, which is the alignment that Cunningham used in his past three years as the defensive coordinator in Kansas City?

Oddly, everyone started wondering if the Lions would use a 3-4.  There's good reason for this, of course: the Steelers and Patriots both heavily utilize the 3-4, and between the two franchises they account for five of the last seven Super Bowl championships.  It is, as they say, a copycat league, and now every team's fanbase loves them some 3-4.  But, why?  What is it about the 3-4 that makes it so successful?

The 3-4 is ultimately successful because it uses deception to keep the offense off balance. By relying on the massive down linemen up front to fill multiple gaps, and having two large interior linebackers who can take on and shed blockers, these "front five" become responsible for stopping the run.  The two outside linebackers can then be used to blitz.  This is where the deception comes in: either of the outside linebackers will blitz on almost every down--and the offense never knows where the blitz is coming from.

It's commonly said that offense is active, and defense is "reactive"--that is, since the very nature of defense is the attempt to thwart the offense, defense is a reaction to whatever the offense is doing.  This left/right deception gives some of that edge back to the defense; it forces the offense to react to what the defense is doing.  Of course, this is true of a blitz from a 4-3 alignment as well; however the offense can simply assign a TE or RB to pick up the blitz, and assuming they do their job that's that.  However, with a well-executed 3-4, the blitz is coming on every down, and from every direction.  That's much less easy to handle; the TE or FB might be on the wrong side, and keeping the RB in on every passing down severely limits the offense.  With a 3-4, the defense forces the offense to account for its actions more than with a traditional 4-3, where every player's role is well-defined.

However, there are some major tradeoffs.  First and foremost, the three down linemen are each responsible for filling two running lanes.  In today's game, this means that each lineman must weigh over three hundred pounds.  The nose tackle, who lines up directly over center and is double-teamed on almost every snap, must be at least 320.  This combination of size, strength, and speed is vanishingly rare; only a handful of men on this Earth have the physical toolset to play the 3-4 nose tackle position and play it well.  Secondly, it is a physical impossibility for three defensive linemen--no matter how large--to occupy five offensive linemen, plus a TE, FB, or both.  Both interior linebackers must possess the size and strength to meet a fullback square-on, take the block, shed it, and make the tackle.  Thirdly, it is commonly thought that it is an easy transition for a smaller 4-3 DE to transition to a 3-4 OLB, however this is not necessarily the case.  You can't just stand up a DE and maintain the deception that makes this all work.  The offense must believe that the rush might come from either side--which means that they must believe that the rush might NOT come from either side.  That is to say, the ROLB must be able to come around the corner like a pure speed DE--but must also have the lateral agility and mental awareness to drop into a short zone or cover a TE man-to-man.  

Right now, the Lions lack the most critical personnel to run the 3-4 as a base alignment.  Sure, there is a surplus of  DEs: Andre Fluellen, Chuck Darby, Ikaika Alama-Francis, Langston Moore, and Landon Cohen would all make great 3-4 DEs; Cory Redding and Shaun Cody would have, too.  They also have a great ROLB in Cliff Avril.  Not only is he developing into an excellent pass rusher, he actually played OLB in college, right up until his senior year.  This makes him a perfect 3-4 DE.  Also, they now have a player who might be able to fill the most critical role: Grady Jackson, a 350-plus pound defensive tackle.  However, he is 36 years old, and in the twilight of his career.  With the next best Lions DT being sub-six-foot, 295-pound Chuck Darby, the Lions would only be able to line up in their theoretical base alignment for as many snaps as Jackson can handle, which I would think would be 35-40 snaps a game at most.  They have absolutely no linebackers that could play inside in a 3-4--or a 4-3 for that matter.  They would need to acquire two legit starters and a backup--HIGHLY unlikely at this stage of free agency, and drafting two rookies at the same position in the first two rounds would be maniacal.  Schwartz and Cunningham have each said multiple times that the 4-3 will be the base alignment.

So why did Jim Schwartz say this to local reporters last week?

"You will at times from us see 3-4 principles. You go back, last year (in Tennessee) we didn't do very much of it, but the year before we ran a lot of 3-4 alignment. Actually, we did a bunch in nickel last year. So it makes the offense prepare for a much bigger package. 

"It's easy when there's only one thing they're preparing for. When you can sort of morph in and out of the 3-4 to a 4-3 with multidimensional players, it gives you a lot more pitches, plus it spreads things out. They have to prepare for a lot more. If you're an offensive coach, it's hard to prepare for that."

Well hold the phone, that sounds interesting.  Using the guys that could play in either alignment, like Jackson and Avril, in both aligments, seems like a great way to maximize the what's-going-on deception factor that the 3-4 is designed to create.  Schwartz also said this: 

“We sort of got away (from WILL and SAM linebackers) because we saw so many shifting teams and teams get out of shifting real quick if they're moving four people and you got all these guys on defense going, are you ready yet?” Schwartz said. “But if they're moving one guy and you're flipping four, they'll just do it 60 snaps a game.

“That's why you start getting a little less compartmentalized with SAM and WILL, strong safety and free safety. If you're a strong safety and you line up to the tight-end side and that tight end motions across, you can't flip because you don't know if he's going to stop and come back and if he does you're looking bad. Guess what, if you have a 230-pound strong safety that's an in-the-box strong safety you can turn him into the free safety just motioning one guy across the formation. So it puts more (emphasis) on having multidimensional (guys).”

What's Schwartz doing here?  He's eliminating the traditional strong-side/weak-side asymmetry that usually pigeonholes each of the players in a 4-3 front seven into precast roles.  What does this do?  He removes some of the offense's active/reactive advantage by not positioning four of eleven players wholly in reflection of whatever the offense is doing.  He then tips the tables even further by hiding the side the blitz is coming from, much like the 3-4.  Finally, he tips an interesting thing with that bit about running a 3-4 nickel package.  In a 3-3-5 nickel--as opposed to the usual 4-2-5 nickel--you are trading the four-man front's run-stopping ability (obviously not really needed on passing downs) for the 3-4's deception.  In a 4-2-5, the two linebackers almost never blitz: it would leave the middle of the field wide open.  However, in a 3-3-5, one of the linebackers can peel off and blitz, theoretically without sacrificing either the ability to stop the draw or the ability to cover the short-middle part of the field.  And, of course, with sufficiently versatile linebackers, the one that blitzes could be any of the three . . . yet, you don't have the drawbacks against the run or the desperate need for huge inside linebackers, because you only line up like this in passing situations.

So let's review quickly: the 2009 Lions will run a 4-3 base, emphasizing bigger linemen up front and a symmetric, offense-agnostic approach to linebackers and safeties--much like a 3-4.  They will also mix in flexed and straight 3-4 alignments as changes of pace.  Further, they will probably show quite a bit of 3-3-5 nickel, to maximize the pass rush when the situation exposure to the power running game is minimal.  Further, the targets they need to complete their 4-3 personnel package (big-framed 300+ pound DT, 250+ pound MLB) would coincidentally be exactly the pieces they need to run the 3-4 or 3-3-5 with any regularity.

So what does this all mean?  I believe the Lions' coaches are building a 3-4/4-3 hybrid defense, exactly like Cunningham ran in Kansas City.  Remember, folks, he said that his philosophy is to "go after people". He utilized freak Hall of Fame DE Derrick Thomas as a monster blitzer from all over the field, and the Chiefs' defense was both incredibly effective and incredibly scary.  For those who don't remember, Cunningham's Chiefs were absolutely the Ravens of their day: relentless, attacking, blitzing, fearless, gambling, playmaking defenses that no offense wanted to face.  If the Lions defense could be half of what those Chiefs defenses were, the Lions really WILL have put teeth in their new logo.  Let's all raise a glass in contemplation of the day when the Lions' defense is feared--and no team can bear the thought of stepping into Ford Field.

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