Tinderbox: First Week of Bleacher Report Stuff

I didn’t do a gameday post for tonight’s game because, well . . . fourth preseason games are rarely worth dissecting. I also am watching it on digital delay, so I don’t have any pertinent analysis just yet. So, I thought I’d recap my first week on the job at Bleacher Report:

• Detroit Lions Can't Wait For Investment In Derrick Williams to Pay Off - The title pretty much says it all.
• Detroit Lions Cuts: Tracking Players Dropped From 2011 Roster - This is a slideshow, which I'll continuously update with released Lions and their eventual landing places. You might want to bookmark it.
• How and Why the NFL Transitioned From Football to Two-Hand Touch – This one . . . this one is special. I put a lot of love into it.  For a while today, it was the main story on the front-est front page of Bleacher Report Dot Com, and a lot of people have said a lot of nice things about it.

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Neither Rain, Nor Snow, Nor Sleet . . . Preseason Gameday Mailbag!

It’s been far too long since the last mailbag, and since preseason is all about answering questions, I took some questions via email and Twitter, and I’m going to try to answer them. First up:

Casey, sent from his or her iPad--

The bengals have a relatively strong d line. Do you think we'll see how well staffords protection will be tomorrow, even with backups? Also I keep hearing sims is taking snaps. Any insight on that?

The quick answer is no; Jeff Backus will provide Stafford’s blindside protection this season, but he won’t be playing tonight. Per Dave Birkett’s projected two-deeps for tonight, Corey Hilliard will get the start at left tackle, with Johnny Culbreath backing him up. That having been said, the remainder of the offensive line is intact. Rob Sims was getting some snaps at left tackle purely out of a lack of bodies.

At the outset of camp, Hilliard and Ugoh couldn’t play because the new CBA hadn’t been ratified. You need two complete units to rotate “ones” and “twos,” so someone besides the only healthy left tackle had to play left tackle. The Sims experiment, or “necessity” as Schwartz called it, lasted just one practice.

To the greater point, "protection" is more than just the left tackle; only one of Stafford’s three shoulder separations came on a blindside hit. The others were during broken plays, not from a straight-up failure of the left tackle. Without Backus and Pettigrew, protection may indeed be shaky. Most of all, I’m looking for a great night from Stephen Peterman. He was outstanding in 2009, and awful in 2010, and his play will either be a great boon to Jahvid Best, or spell another season of “one yard and a cloud of dust” up the middle.

From @Jimbocity84 - If our patchwork O-Line lets stafford get rocked on the first series, does he see a second one?

Yes. As much as they want to protect him, subconsciously I think you want to see Stafford take a hit and bounce back up.

From @KrisWD40 - Could Rayner actually unseat Hanson as our kicker? He seems like a good option and he's got much more tred on the tires.

Rayner played well enough last year to start somewhere this year, and I’d love to see him take over whenever Hanson is done. But Hanson’s one of the best kickers of all time, and he hasn’t lost much off his leg or his accuracy. Two years ago, he had the best season a kicker’s ever had, on worst team of all time. If nothing else, Hanson deserves to stick around for the playoff run. Who knows? Maybe Rayner waits around for the gig to open up.

From @anthonytimlin - Who should we be keeping our eye on outside of the starters?

I kinda-sorta answered this yesterday:

The Lions’ strongest unit is quarterback; while I hope we’ll see at least two series from Matthew Stafford, I’d also like to see Drew Stanton in the whole second half. I doubt Shaun Hill will be interested in re-upping as a long-term backup, so the Lions have to find out if Drew Stanton is capable of taking his place. Elsewhere offensively, I’m hoping to get a long, long look at Johnny Culbreath at LT, and Derrick Williams at WR. Don’t think I won’t be watching the tailback situation with interest, too; I expect Harrison to get a lot of work.

On the defensive side, I hope to see very little Ndamukong Suh. I want Sammie Hill, Andre Fluellen, and Quinn Pitcock in and causing havoc. I want a BIG dose of The Great Willie Young. I hope to see the starting linebacker trio in for as many snaps as possible. I hope to see a lot of Aaron Berry working against A.J. Green. I want Amari Spievey in there as much as possible, too; I’m convinced that more reps will help him develop quickly into a force.

Berry likely won’t play, so instead I’ll just say “the cornerbacks.” To specify a little more on the tailbacks, I want to see the Jahvid Best we saw last preseason, then a 50/50 mix of Aaron Brown and Jerome Harrsion.

From @AdamantiumAC - Do you think Harrison is capable of moving to HB2 on the depth chart, even with a healthy Morris? (FTR, I do)

Honestly, they’re pretty similar backs. Harrison isn’t nearly as young as everyone seems to think, and Morris has proven himself a very solid #2 for two years running (pun intended). I could see it, but I don’t think it’ll affect the bottom line that much. Neither is Leshoure, so neither will really replace him. It’s going to be up to Best to prove he can be that every-down back.

From @Dustin_aka_D - Our offense is going to need a nickname soon. I don't want any rehashing of "great Lakes offense" or "silver stretch" either

Eh. I'm a fan of nicknames, but they have to be organic. Schwartz picking one from a contest isn’t the same as an actual nickname. “Megatron” was Roy Williams’ honest attempt at describing Calvin Johnson’s ridiculous abilities, and it stuck. Since the Lions’ offense isn’t unique systematically, it’s more about execution and the players. If a nickname for the offense is in the offing, it’ll become apparent during play.

From @johnweeast - Which RB's you have them keeping right now? and WR?

Yikes. I often avoid roster projections, because I'm often wrong. I thought John Wendling had only the most extreme long shot to make last year’s roster, and he made the first 53 in style. Best and Morris have roster spots, and after that it’s up for grabs. Aaron Brown will likely have tonight to prove he’s worth keeping around. If he can’t, Harrison likely gets the third spot—though if they need to keep six wideouts, Harrison may have to fight Felton for that spot. I DO think Derrick Williams makes it, one way or another. One last thing: the “final 53” is anything but; the last few spots will still churn like crazy after other teams release useful players.

From @Dustin_aka_D - do you think the lions will try anything resembling the old Chicago 46 this year on defense?Seems like we have players for it

A: No. B. My gosh, you’re right, they totally do. Check this out:

The NT is a two-gap tackle; think Sammie Hill and/or Corey Willams there. On either side, Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh each directly over a guard, holding the B gaps down. KVB rotating with Lo-Jack at the DE spot. Avril and Levy/Durant at the two upfront LB spots, with Tulloch and Delmas as the back two (Delmas would play the “46” role). Amari Spievey would play centerfield, and Chris Houston and Eric Wright would be in charge of preventinging all pass catching.

The first little bit sounded really great, but by the end you got to see why the 46 just isn’t used much: modern precision short-range passing offenses would just carve this up, unless you did a LOT of zone blitzing—and what’s the point of putting eight in the box and bringing everyone if you don’t bring everyone? As a change-of-pace run-stopping look, I love it. As an occasional blitzing front, why not? But ultimately, I’m not sure it makes the DL enough more effective to make up for how dramatically you’d be exposing a secondary with question marks.

Finally, I want to share with you an email from Bob R. He responded to the Mikel Leshoure piece with some intense memories:

I am fifty three years old and I remember watching a game involving the NY Jets back in the 70's. In this particular game Emerson Boozer, I believe it was, ruptured his Achilles. Back then they didn't have the "in stadium" medical facilities they do now so they helped him off the field to the bench where the team doctors examined what appeared, to the commentators, to be his Achilles region. As the cameras kept cutting back to Boozer on the bench we could clearly see he was sobbing...and not from the pain. Which lead the "Color Man", a former player, to somberly intone, " If this is an Achilles Tendon, then we have just seen Emerson's last play. His career is over." And it was.

So back in the seventies an Achilles rupture was a football players death sentence.

I experienced this first hand when my father back in the 70's ruptured a disc in the lumbar region of his spine. "L5" to be specific. The surgery he endured left him with two vertebra fused together, which limits his movement and causes pain to this day, and left him with a ten inch scar down the center of his back. He spent a week in the hospital after surgery and then two more weeks flat on his back at home in a great deal of pain.

In 1993 I had the pleasure of enduring the same injury to my L5. But the difference in my experience versus his was like night and day.

I went into the hospital at 8am, had surgery at 11:30am and was walking down the hall of my ward by three that afternoon. The scar from my surgery is two inches long and I was back at work , pain free, in seven days.

Now, I know we're talking about apples and oranges when it comes to the demands Mikel's body will require, as opposed to mine. But I think it's safe to say that had Emerson Boozer's injury occurred now, he most certainly would have played again.

Like yours, my heart goes out to him and his family as they face the beginning of the long road back.

All this is to say, I think your right. I think Leshoure has an excellent chance to be a top RB in this league for years to come.

What can I possibly add to that? Leshoure’s injury is a “gut punch” to him, his family, Jim Schwartz, and the franchise—but it isn’t a death sentence. Orthopedic surgery and treatment have advanced tremendously in the past few decades—and NFL stars aren’t getting the same therapy  that weekend warriors are. Josh at Roar of the Lions posted how his own shoulder rehab contrasts with what’s known about Matthew Stafford’s regimen; the difference is astonishing.

To wrap this all up, I’m glad to say I’ll be at the game tonight; please follow @lionsinwinter on Twitter for my real-time updates. I hope whatever TV you’re watching isn’t too tape-delayed—and no matter what, GO LIONS!

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Wide Receivers

Finishing up the Old Mother Hubbard series, post-draft, seems anti-climatic. However, there’s plenty of offseason left (maybe too much), and this cupboard isn’t done being restocked. To that end, we dig into the Pro Football Focus grades for wide receivers:

In this case, “Pass” refers to their grades in the passing game, i.e. their receiving performance. “Run” refers to their performance when running the football (on reverses, etc.). Unlike tight ends, run blocking and pass blocking are consolidated into “Blocking,” as receivers rarely pass block. The bright orange line represents Brandon Lloyd, the wideout who turned in the best overall grade. His +24 is predicated almost entirely on his +23.4 receiving grade (the other dimensions have little variation, and therefore little impact on the overall grade). Should we be surprised that Darrius Heyward-Bey is bringing up the rear? His –14 overall grade is the worst of any NFL wideout.

There’s a little thing in research called “confirmation bias,” where you seek out objective facts that confirm your preconceptions. That the Lions drafted a speedy receiver with their second pick suggests the Lions saw a need that had to be filled. I simply have to acknowledge this: I’m curious to see why the Lions thought they should pick a wideout so high, especially one whose game superficially matches Nate Burleson’s. I’m going to do this straight, but keep an eye out for signals that there’s a need to stretch the field.

The Lions’ WR corps is the most divergent unit on the team. Most of the other positions’ players are clustered around the thick black AVERAGE line, with only a few strong deviations in either direction. However, Calvin Johnson was PFF’s third-best graded receiver in 2010, with a very strong +14 overall grade. That was powered by a +14.5 receiving grade, and only having a single penalty called against him all year. He also had a (very) slightly above-average rushing grade.

Surprisingly, Megatron’s blocking grade was awful. He turned in a –3.1 blocking mark, well below the NFL average of –1.27, and ranked 94th out of 110 receivers. We don’t play Megatron to block, but you’d think a dude who has half a foot and sixty pounds on most corners could do better than that without breaking a sweat.

Statistically, Calvin caught 77 of 131 passes thrown at him; his percentage of passes caught is actually a little below-average at 58.8% (NFL average: 59.6%). Part of this is definitely due to system and quarterbacking. The top receiving percentage guys are typically slot receivers in pass-first, multi-WR offenses featuring quality quarterbacks; Megatron is a #1 wideout in a conventional offense driven by very inconsistent quarterback play last year. Still, I’d expected Calvin to be better than the mean at getting to, and hauling in, footballs.

Perhaps it's in the way they use him? Megatron was thrown at once every 7.8 snaps, exactly the NFL average. His yards per reception, 14.5, is definitely a notch above average, 13.2. But his touchdowns . . . well, his 13 12 vastly outstrip the league average of 4. It was my eyeball observation that the Lions tended to move between the 30s with passes to slot WRs, TEs, and RBs, then take shots at the endzone with Calvin once they got close. I divided receptions by touchdowns and . . . yup! Megatron was 10th in the NFL with 6.4 receptions per touchdown (4th with 5.9 if you count the Chicago Robbery). If the Lions were throwing to Calvin, they were often taking a shot at the end zone.

Bottom Line: Calvin Johnson was one of the NFL’s best receivers in 2010, despite being targeted the average number of times, primarily in the red zone, by a rotating cast of quarterbacks. If he and Matthew Stafford play all 16 games in 2011, expect Megatron to be #1 by a long shot.

The neon-green line a little ways inside of AVERAGE is Nate Burleson, the Lions’ second-splashiest free agent acquisition of 2010. Burleson turned in a –2.7 receiving grade, which couldn’t be offset by his run grade (+1.6, tied with Devin Hester for third-best in the NFL), or his relatively clean penalty grade. His very-slightly-below-average blocking performance (-1.4) didn’t help either.

Burleson’s negative grade didn’t come entirely from dropped passes, as Brandon Pettigrew’s clearly did. Burleson was ranked 56th in snaps-per-drop, with 17.0 (avg.: 17.6)—not great, but barely off the NFL median and mean. His YAC was excellent; 18th-best in the NFL with 5.6. He also made a defender miss on a post-catch tackle 8 times on just 55 receptions—the 21st-highest rate in the NFL (6.9 Rec./MT; NFL avg. 10.8).

That is the end of the good news for Burleson—who, outside of two great games against the Jets and Dolphins (+2.9, +3.4), turned in neutral or weakly negative grades the rest of the year (none worse than his –1.8 week one; most not nearly that low). He also, despite his well-above-average YAC rate, could only muster 11.4 yards per reception. Think about that: he ran for an average of 5.6 yards after every catch, but only gained 11.4 yards on an average catch. He caught the ball an average of 5.8 yards downfield! The picture this all paints is of a slightly-below-average receiver who struggles to get open deep—but becomes a genuine threat once the ball is in his hands.

Bottom Line: Nate Burleson proved to be a valuable asset, often getting open short and manufacturing yards in space when there were none to be had. However, he failed to provide a credible threat across from Calvin Johnson, instead carving out a niche in underneath the coverage. “Recepticon” has a future in this offense, but it will be much brighter if he can work in the space created by a legitimate deep threat.

Bryant Johnson is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Unfortunately, PFF’s grades are not kind to him. Johnson’s –13.1 overall grade is second-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Darrius Heyward-Bey. His –13.5 receiving grade is at the very bottom; it’s only his total lack of penalties called that pull him up above Heyward-Bey. His 37.5% of targets caught is also second-worst in the league; dropping 7 passes on just 48 targets didn’t help.

Here’s one positive tidbit for Johnson, though: his 4.2 catches per missed tackle means he was the third-hardest WR to bring down in the NFL. Should he happen to catch the ball, Bryant Johnson is tough to stop.

Bottom Line: Bryant Johnson struggled mightily to catch the ball in 2010, as he did in 2009. Though his body type and tool set would be the perfect complement to draw coverage away from Megatron and open up space for Burleson, his inability to catch the ball strips him of any credible threat—and of any real chance of returning for 2010.

Derrick Williams is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Williams's commitment to giving back to the Detroit community is as impressive as it is unheralded. Unfortunately, PFF’s graders took a dim view of his 2010 performance, as well. Williams, whose 154 snaps didn’t qualify him for the 25% cutoff, only saw time in weeks 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, and 13.

His –6 overall rating and –4.8 receiving rating didn’t come from doing a bad job catching the ball. The problem was, he was never open: in 154 snaps played, Lions quarterbacks only targeted him three times. Astonishingly, that’s the exact same number of penalty flags he drew (though one was called back).

Bottom Line: Despite being, by all appearances, a great guy and a good teammate, Williams’ single reception for 7 yards was probably the former #1 recruit in America’s last as a Lion.

SHOPPING LIST: Though no one identified WR as a need prior to the draft, had I managed to crank this one out I’d have been screaming from the mountaintops about this one, too. Calvin Johnson is a flat-out stud, Nate Burleson is a quality slot ninja, and after that the Lions have two guys who’ve proven they can’t help, and practice squadders like Brian Clark and Tim Toone. The need for a wideout with legitimate downfield speed and NFL hands to go with it was, in fact, desperate—and the Lions may have filled it with Titus Young.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,2011 nfl draft,calvin johnson,nate burleson,titus young,boise state,team needs

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The Lion Prince? Amukamara Works His Tail Off

This, if you can get it to load and run to completion (I can’t, in any browser), is a video about Prince Amukamara’s intense efforts to minimize his 40 time. Few thought during his senior season as the consensus at-least-second-best cornerback in America, he’d be spending this time trying to quiet those doubting his ability. But, partly on advice from Ndamukong Suh, Amukamara will do all the drills at this year’s NFL Combine, looking to prove he’s as good as everyone thinks he is . . . or isn’t . . . or something.

It’s an odd cause-and-effect cycle like this. People watch Amukamara play, they see he’s awesome, they make him Preseason All-America, etc. Then evaluators like Wes Bunting watch film, and say Amukamara’s not worth a Top 10 pick because his straight-line speed is “lacking.” So, in order to answer the questions about his straight-line speed, Amukamara is training to learn how to run really fast in a straight line, in shorts, on a track. Supposing he goes out and cuts a 4.20, what changes about the game tape he laid down? What does that prove about his ability to play in the NFL?

The Combine has gone from a convenient way for scouts to get independent apples-to-apples information on prospects, to a cottage industry with millions of dollars flowing in a circle. Players hire agents, agents pay for training, the trainers boost the players’ draft stock, the player gets paid more, the agent gets paid more, the trainers get more agents referring clients their way . . . everybody wins.

This process bears many strange fruits. There are Darius Heyward-Beys, guys whose eye-popping 40 time causes team to shell out big dough for a guy who can’t play. On the other hand, there are Chris Johnsons whose blazing track times clued teams in to real talent. On the other other hand, there are Joe Hadens, whose lackluster 40 times belie elite on-field ability. On the other other other hand, there are Derrick Williamses, whose slow 40 times reveal a missing top gear.

Let’s be real: Amukamara can play. He’s proven with his play that he can play at the NFL level. The question is, does he possess the extra burst, the elite athletic ability, the splash of habanero required to lock down a Jennings, a Rice, or a theoretical top Chicago receiver? I don’t think his 40 time will prove he does or doesn’t—and even if he does have that potential, cornerback is a position that usually requires development. If Amukamara does fall to the Lions at 13—and many suggest he will—counting on him to shut down his half of the field from day one will be folly.

Last year, Taylor Mays’ “official” 40 time was mysteriously adjusted to be .19 seconds slower than cameras showed, for no apparent reason. There’s never been an explanation for this, and the NFL Network’s frame-by-frame overlap replay proved something was seriously rotten with the NFL’s official times. At this point, what a fast 40 time proves is not that you have elite recovery speed, or can rush the passer, or can beat the fullback to the hole—it proves you either have ridiculous God-given wheels, or you care enough about your career to put your nose to the grindstone and get the very best out of your body. 

So, if you’re watching the NFL Combine this weekend—and after all this, I suggest you do—watch the 40 for fun and oohs and aahs . . . but watch the drills if you want to know what’s really up.

Technorati Tags: nfl,nfl draft,nfl combine,prince amukamara

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Tinderbox: Nate Burleson, and the MLS In Detroit

When Kyle Vanden Bosch was signed, we heard a lot about how his nonstop motor, both on- and off-field, would set the tempo for the Lions’ young defensive linemen.  We heard a lot about how his intense play, intense practice tempo, and intense personality would teach the youngsters how to do it the right way—and, almost regardless of Vanden  Bosch’s own production, would make the defensive line better.

When Nate Burleson signed, most of the talk centered around his production and his compensation—we heard almost nothing about his intangibles.  Well, if you’ve read Tom Kowalski’s latest piece on Mlive.com, then you know  that Burleson’s arrival has catalyzed the transformation of the wide receiver corps.  What was once a frustrated Calvin Johnson surrounded by underperforming castoffs has become a lively, competitive group that sees themselves among the best units in the league.

One of the fun things about Twitter is following athletes, and seeing what they say to each other—and by following @Nate13Burleson, @bigplaycj, @1BryantJohnson, and @DWheelz12, I’ve seen the off-field esprit de wide receiver corps building all offseason long.  It doesn’t surprise me in the least that the wideouts are taking that same camaraderie between the sidelines, as well.  Handshakes, TD celebrations, friendly competitions, are all a part of building confidence, building unity, building excitement, and fostering a winning attitude—finally, changing the “losing culture” we’ve heard so much about over the past decade(s).

There were whispers last year that Megatron was becoming “Lionized” last year, losing motivation and focus because of the crushing futility of trying to win in Detroit.  Well, maybe being Lionized can have a different meaning now: attitude, confidence, fun, swagger.  Yeah, I said swagger.

Tonight, on ESPN2 (and Univision), the US Men’s National Team (USMNT) will be taking on Brazil.  This’ll be the first time we get to see our national team in action since the World Cup, and I’m interested to see what the national excitement level for this match is.  Of course, the old home of the Lions, the Silverdome, recently hosted a match between two elite international pro teams, AC Milan and Panathinaikos FC, billed the “Match of the Titans.”  Announced attendance was over 30,000, proving that there’s a significant fan base in Michigan.  The Silverdome ownership group is hoping to lure the MLS to Detroit with a radical makeover of the building, and I, for one, hope they pull it off.

I’m sitting here holding a registration form for Parks & Rec soccer for my eldest, & I’m about to go turn it in.  I never played soccer myself, and know very little about the game—but something about the international flavor of the sport has lured me and my kids in.  With the Tigers an annual exercise in hope and heartbreak, it’d be awesome to have another Detroit team to cheer on during the interminable wait for the NFL.  So, watch the USMNT tonight at 8:00 on ESPN2.  Go check out MotorCitySupporters.com.  Add @MCSDetroit to your Twitter feed, and join the grassroots effort to bring MLS to Detroit.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,mls detroit,soccer,nate burleson,calvin johnson

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Meet The Cubs: Tim Toone

7.48, 255: Timothy Toone, Weber State WR
About seven seconds into my research on Toone, I knew what we were in for.  That catchy, alliterative name, plus a phonically germane nickname: “Tarzan.” Those incredible, flowing, straw-colored dreadlocks.  His tiny FCS Utah school.  His blazing speed, his special-teams prowess, and his legendary work ethic.  Of course, his coveted “Mister Irrelevant” status as the final pick in the 2010 draft.  All the elements are there, all the pieces are in place.  Tim Toone is a mortal lock to be this year’s marquee inductee into the Lions Fan Hall of Fame.  Immediately, my words from last year about Zack Follett came rushing back to me:

Zach Follett is going to be the next inductee into the Lions Fan Hall of Fame. Players like David Kircus, Scotty Anderson, Casey Fitzsimmons, David "Blue" Adams, Greg Blue, and Buster Davis have been drafted late (or signed as a UFA) by the Lions, made a big play or two in training camp or preseason, and become cult heroes--often, with fans insisting that these practice squadders and/or bench riders would be immediate upgrades over the current starters, if only they were given the opportunity. Zack Follett perfectly fits this profile; I have no doubt we'll be seeing Follett jerseys in the stands sooner rather than later.

The only way he could be any more perfectly qualified would be to have played at GVSU, or come up through the Detroit Public Schools system.  Unfortunately, Toone hails from from Peoria, Arizona—where, despite being first-team All-State as a senior, he was unknown to Scout.com, and an unranked one-star recruit at Rivals.com.  His senior year, he caught 37 balls for 1,125 yards, setting an all-time state record for YpC with 30.4.  Thirty.  Point.  Four.  Yards.  Per.  Catch.  I love me some high school statistics.

Timonthy “Tarzan” Toone redshirted (and paid his own way) his first year at Weber State, then served his two-year Mormon mission in Ghana and the Ivory Coast.  NFL Draft Blitz asked Toone about that mission, in one of the most desperate and war-torn regions on Earth:

It was difficult, but it helped me grow up. It made me more responsible. I had life goals after I came back from the mission. I knew how to work hard towards those goals.

Work hard he did, immediately making an impact as a deep threat.  He had seven catches for 275 yards (39.3 YpC).  Nine games in, he took over as punt returner, and in his first game he took a punt back 61 yards to the house. 

As a redshirt sophomore, he was the team’s second-leading receiver, with 32 catches for 698 yards (21.81 YpC) and 10 TDs, tying the school’s single-season receiving TD record.  Toone was named Honorable Mention All-Big Sky conference that year, but it was only a hint of what was to come.  Over the next two seasons, Toole became the Wildcats' primary offensive threat: over the next two seasons, he averaged 83.5 catches, 1,314.5 yards, and 8.5 TDs--and was first-team All-Big Sky Conference in both seasons.

How does all that small-school success translate to the big time?  Sports Illustrated grades Toone as a 2.05, a practice-squadder.  Most of the information I can find agrees: at Weber State, Toone’s calling card was his blazing speed, but that speed is merely adequate at the next level.  However, his technique, his willingness to go across the middle, his hands in traffic, routes, body control, they all grade very well.  His lack of typical deep-threat size (5’-11”, 170 pounds) means that though he put up outlandish, ridiculous YpC numbers in college, he projects to the NFL as a sneaky, second-level possession receiver—one who’s very dangerous after the catch.

As for character . . . well, Toone grades highest of all in that category.  Here’s a great ESPN TV interview of Toone, where they closed it out by asking how he’d apply the lessons learned in west Africa to his life in the NFL:

It's for Detroit, the team is for Detroit. To try to help them out, and do everything I can to make that city proud, and happy to be a Detroit Lions fan.

It’s not just his off-the-field exploits that show great character and work ethic.  Here’s a little piece from the Deseret News, telling how Toone punished himself for loafing after an eight-catch, 135 yard, 2 TD performance that won his team the game:

I just was not playing like I usually do, so I had to go in there [the up-down circle].  I felt like I didn't block and do all that I needed to do, all the little things that count. Maybe if I would have blocked a little more, some big plays would have sprung and we wouldn't have been in that situation [to need a last-minute touchdown].

Wow.

Well, enough of that nonsense; let’s get to what really matters; the only true oracle of NFL success: YouTube highlight reels!

Subjectively, it’s hard not to love the hell out of this kid.  Like I said, all the indicators, all the effort, all the character in the world.  Looking at these clips, he’s obviously in a class by himself on this field, but his speed is far from breathtaking.  However, his hands, routes, football sense, and open-field ability will certainly give him the inside track on impressing the coaches over, say Derrick Williams.

In fact, that's how I’d say Toone projects: as Derrick Williams’ replacement, if Williams doesn’t get his head screwed on straight.  Sap away a little bit of Williams’ speed, and add all the common sense, sticky hands, and work ethic that he lacks, and it’s hard to see how the resultant player wouldn’t be Toone.

I'm not guaranteeing a roster spot for Toone, but I’ve said several times that neither Bryant Johnson, nor Dennis Northcutt, nor Derrick Williams appears to have any great future here as a Lion; any of them could be cut tomorrow and I wouldn’t be that surprised.  A kid who’s put service, hard work, and team success above all else—including his own career?  You absolutely want to see him succeed, and I think he’s got an excellent chance here.

Technorati Tags: nfl,nfl draft,detroit lions,tim toone,mr. irrelevant

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three cups deep: the roster is set

After an especially lazy Labor Day morning, I have yet to sip even a single drop of coffee, let alone three cups.  Rather than attempt to rehash everything that happened last weekend, I’ll simply crib from Adam Caplan’s excellent Transaction Blog:

Claimed CB Cletis Gordon off of waivers from the Texans, waived WR Eric Fowler, released CB Keith Smith, waived WR Glenn Holt, released CB Dexter Wynn with injury waiver, signed QB Brooks Bollinger, claimed QB Kevin O'Connell off of waivers from New England, released G Terrence Metcalf, waived WR D.J. Boldin, waived LB Rob Francois, waived CB LaMarcus Hicks, waived DE Ryan Kees, acquired S Ko Simpson for an undisclosed 2010 draft choice, waived DE Orion Martin, released DT Chuck Darby, waived OT Lydon Murtha, placed CB Chris Roberson on IR, released DT Shaun Smith, waived LB Rufus Alexander, released QB Brooks Bollinger, released G Milford Brown, waived TE Carson Butler, released RB Aveion Cason, released WR Keary Colbert, waived DE Sean Conover, released K Billy Cundiff,  waived RB Tristan Davis, waived LB Zack Follett, waived C Dan Gerberry, waived TE Dan Gronkowski, released WR Dane Looker, released S Calvin Lowry, waived CB Ramzee Robinson, released S Stuart Schweigert, waived LB Spenser Smith, waived WR John Standeford, waived: DE Ikaika Alama-Francis, CB Cletis Gordon, WR Adam Jennings, traded QB Kevin O'Connell to New York Jets for future draft pick, claimed DE Copeland Bryan off waivers from Buffalo Bills, claimed WR Yamon Figurs off waivers from Baltimore Ravens, claimed CB Marcus McCauley off waivers from Minnesota Vikings, claimed CB Kevin Hobbs off waivers from Seattle Seahawks.

Signed to practice squad: WR John Broussard, TE Carson Butler, RB Tristan Davis, LB Zack Follett, C Dan Gerberry, TE Dan Gronkowski, OT Lydon Murtha.

Whew, got all that?  Really, there aren’t too many surprises here.  Mayhew flipped O’Connell, though faster than I anticipated; Cletis Gordon, Five-O, and Adam Jennings un-made the final roster; then a DR, KR, and two CBs  were claimed off of the waiver wire.  My guess is that McCauley and Hobbs will be given a chance to compete for a spot at nickel corner, and the loser will be shipped off as soon as another DT is acquired.  Why a DT?  Well, with Orien Harris (CORRECTION: several sharp-eyes readers noted that I got the wrong "Orion"; Orien Harris is still on the roster--though that hardly eliminates the concerns I expressed below), Chuck Darby, Shaun Smith, and Five-O all sent packing, the Lions are down to Grady Jackson, Landon Cohen, Sammie Hill, and Andre Fluellen at DT.  

Carrying only four DTs doesn’t sound dire—but Jackson is going to be  15-20 snap situational guy, Cohen’s a seventh-rounder in his second year, Hill was playing 3-4 DE in the NAIA like nine months ago, and Fluellen has been working primarily at DE.  There isn’t a single proven, reliable starter to play DT--though Cohen certainly read well for the role, when he auditioned against Atlanta.  In order to stop the run, this defense is going to need outstanding---both explosive AND disciplined—linebacker play, as well as help from the DBs.

New (presumptive) starting safety, Ko Simpson brings both size and speed to the position; one can only hope his athleticism leads to more plays made back there.  I’ve been sweating bullets about the cornerbacks since the day they let Leigh Bodden walk, and the addition of two waiver-wire scrubs doesn’t assuage my fears—especially given the physical-but-lackluster play of Eric King this preseason.  Even if this unit miraculously stays healthy, both skill and depth are going to remain a problem.

On the other hand, the addition of Yamon Figurs is one I’m excited about.  A 2007 third-round pick of the Ravens, Figurs exploded in his rookie season in relief of the injured B. J. Sams.  Figurs became the primary returner in 2008, but didn’t build upon his initial success.  The Ravens signed former Titans CB/KR Chris Carr—remember him?—and Carr edged out Figurs for the returner gig.  As Figurs couldn’t crack the WR depth chart, he was released. 

I still think Figurs has the explosiveness to be a primary returner for the Lions—and with Cason gone, the Lions have only one player with actual experience as an NFL returner: #1 CB Philip Buchanon.  Figurs should have the leg up on the punt returner gig, and should push Williams and Brown for looks at kick returner, too.

When you take a step back and look at how incredibly different this team is from the 0-16 squad, especially on defense, it’s impressive.  Barring any further miracle transactions—and without knowing the compensation given for Ko Simpson, or received for Kevin O’Connell—the Lions have very well in turning the roster over this season.  However, there’s still a long way to go before this roster matches up, on paper, with the better squads in the NFL.

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the story of the game: Lions 27, Falcons 26

It was a familiar sight: a Lions game concluding with a game-winning field goal; a lead held most of the game snatched away by a ball sailing through the uprights, as the clock ticked down to 00:00.  There was only one thing out of place in this nightmare Lions fans have lived through hundreds of times: the ball had come off of the black-shod foot of Jason Hanson, and the 27-26 come-from-behind victory belonged to the boys in Honolulu Blue.

For fans thrilled to get a glimpse of this thoroughly-turned-over roster, chomping at the bit to see the new schemes, and positively frothing at the mouth to see all three quarterbacks play, they got an eyeful—if they were patient.  Daunte Culpepper, as it had been announced, would start the game, and Stafford and Stanton would each due to receive plenty of reps.

After the defense held Atlanta to a single first down, the offense took the field.  Immediately, they did something Lions fans haven’t seen in a long time: they ran the ball, and ran it well.  Kevin Smith ran off-tackle for first 4 yards, then 7 yards.  Culpepper hit Smith on a little  swing pass, and Smith turned it upfield for eleven.  The Falcons defense was already starting to commit penalties trying to slow the Lions down.   Culpepper was flashing a little bit of his old speed—just a little bit, but it was there—scrambling to escape the rush; rolling out to make things happen. 

On a cruical 3rd-and-7, Culpepper hit Smith for another 16 yards.  Smith’s day ended there, but that was all we needed to see: Kevin Smith looked quicker than last season, but no less strong—in fact, he was hitting the hole even harder.  You can tell the offseason work with RB coach Sam Gash has really added explosion and burst to his game.  After working all the way down to the Atlanta two-yard-line, a dude named Thomas Johnson came barreling through the Lions’ line and took Culpepper down, even before he’d finished dropping back.  The Lions settled for a field goal.

Unfortunately, the Falcons answered quickly, mixing Michael Turner runs in with passes to Roddy White, moving from the Atlanta 23 to the Detroit 40 in just six plays.  Then, as we saw so often last year, the dam burst: Turner got out into the open field, and blew past both Lamarcus Hicks and Kalvin Pearson on his way to paydirt; a 40-yard touchdown run.  Immediately, I recalled something that Tom Kowalski said after the Lions drafted Louis Delmas: that long touchdown runs are often the result of poor safety play.  Of course, we can’t know if Delmas would have made that play, but we can know that if Kalvin Pearson is starting come Week 1, the Lions will be desperately looking to upgrade the position.

Culpepper’s second drive sandwiched the break between quarters--and accomplished little of significance, stalling one yard into enemy territory.  After the Falcons themselves put themselves in a hole on the first play with a holding penalty, they soon punted it right back to the Lions.  The crowd started to rev up for Stafford--but he stayed on the bench, and Culpepper came out yet again.  Aveion Cason, who would end the day with a very Casonesque 8 carries for 23 yards, got stuffed at the line.  Culpepper tried to a couple of short passes, but Stephen Peterman committed an extremely dumb 15-yarder that stalled the drive.  Atlanta took it back; while they didn’t get far, they didn’t need to to get within Jason Elam’s range.  Elam hit a 46-yarder to make it 10-3.

Now?  Finally, now?  Yes.  Now.  After a very nice 28-yard return by Derrick Williams, Matthew Stafford took the field to rousing cheers.  He got started right away, zipping one downfield to Keary Colbert—and it bounced right off his hands.  Stafford hit Derrick Williams up the seam for a quick 10 yards and first down, then Cason ran for no gain again.  After a swing pass to Cason, Stafford looked Colbert’s way again . . . and he dropped it, again.  This time, it killed the drive.  Nick Harris booted a beauty, and the Lions covered up on the 3-yard-line—but sixth-round pick Aaron Brown had lined up incorrectly, as he’d done in training camp, forcing a re-kick.

With the Falcons’ twos in, Cliff Avril apparently smelled blood; he jumped WAY offside on the first play of the ensuing Falcons series.  Jarious Norwood used his speed to convert the first down, but then the Lions’ defense stiffened up.  Nice coverage from Darnell Bing, and EMU product Chris Roberson, on successive plays forced the Falcons to punt it away.

Stafford took over again.  Working out of the shotgun, Stafford faked a handoff to Ervin, then rifled one down the sideline to Colbert for—whoa—a completion, of the 28-yard variety.  After the two-minute warning, An 8-yard run from Cason set the Lions up with a 2nd-and-2.  Stafford zipped two more passes to Colbert, neither of which Colbert managed to catch.  Stafford appeared to take it all in stride, with an almost Farvesque handclap and grin.  As announcer Desmond Howard noted, Stafford didn’t appear to be feeding Colbert, so much as he was properly executing the offense; Colbert just kept happening to be the ‘right guy’.  The ensuing Falcons ‘drive’ would quickly be interrupted by halftime. 

As Stafford took the field again, you could feel the good vibes flowing.  Stafford’s arm was as live as reports had indicated, he was placing the ball very well, he looked totally composed and poised, and was clearly having fun out there.  Then . . . the badness.

Rolling to his right to get away from a blitz, Stafford tried to force it to Dan Gronkowski near the numbers. Falcons LB Tony Gilbert read it, jumped the route, picked the pass clean, and took it to the house.  Stafford knew he’d messed up:

"(The receiver) ended up getting there, but he got there a little late. But still, it's not his fault. I've got to throw that one into the third row."

This is the kind of thing that only game experience teaches.  Schwartz can make Stafford practice throwing the ball away all he wants, but what drives the lesson home is the Ford Field crowd falling silent, while the enemy celebrates a pick-six.  Incredibly, the Falcons’ veteran kicker, Jason Elam, missed the ensuing extra point attempt.  Of course, that point wouldn’t prove to be the margin of victory or anything, so it wasn’t especially noteworthy. 

Still, Stafford went right back to it, hitting Allen Ervin for 22, hitting Eric Fowler for 21, and then—finally—hitting paydirt.  On a play action, Stafford looked deep to the left, quickly reset to the right, and zipped a gorgeous pass into the end zone, right over Derrick Williams’s far shoulder—and Williams snared it and tucked it in, beyond the reach of the cornerback, who was draped all over him.  Touchdown. 

Stafford, who’d stood tall in the pocket, and taken a real shot after letting it go, absolutely placed that ball.  It was a really, really, really nice pass.  Without the speed of the read, the quick re-set of his feet to throw to his second option, and the perfect throw in the face of the rush—without all three of those things—that’s at best an incompletion, at worst a sack.  Stafford’s final stat line: 7/14, 114 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.  Colbert’s drops would have tacked on at least another 60 yards, and, perhaps, gotten Stafford and the Lions in range for another TD.  Still, drops will happen no matter who’s throwing or catching, and we have to take Stafford’s performance for what it was: a really, really, really good rookie quarterback proving that he’s both really, really really good—and a rookie.

On the ensuing defensive series, the Lions made a mess of everything.  Chuck Darby was flagged for a 15-yard facemask on 3rd-and-7, and then Eric King was flagged for PI—to the tune of 38 yards.  The Falcons immediately punched it in from the 1, and took a 23-10 lead.

The Lions took back over on offense, and now Drew Stanton would finally have his day in the sun.  No shorts, no T-shirts, no 7-on-7.  No drills, no coaches, no air horn.  11-on-11, us vs. them, time to play football.  After Allen Ervin ran one for a couple of yards, Stanton got hit him for a 12-yard gain.  It was initially ruled that Ervin fumbled, but review proved he certainly did not.  Then, DS threw a frankly horrible interception to Jaime Winborn—but luckily, it was called back thanks to defensive PI.  Thanks to a nice mix of Ervin runs and a Stanton scramble, the Lions got back over midfield, and an Aaron Brown run for 6 put them up the Falcons’ 38.  On the ensuing play, Brown ran to the right, the—passing up what appeared to be a wide-open hole--cut back across the defense and exploded to the sideline.  He beat the incoming safety, and turned it up.  38 yards later, Aaron Brown cashed in.  As he explained it:

"The inside zone play is like the play we ran at TCU. It's not really a cutback, but just seeing all the defenders banging inside in the box, if everybody's inside, there can't be that many people on the outside. So I just went to the left.''

It showed the kind of vision, burst, and cutback ability that hasn’t been seen here since a certain Hall of Famer prowled the backfield.  Brown, obviously, isn’t nearly the player that player was—or he’d have been a top 3 draft pick instead of a sixth-rounder—but he certainly flashed NFL-caliber vision and speed on that play.

The Lions kicked off to the Falcons, and on first down Stu Schweigert made the first of many great plays.  On 2nd-and-10, the Falcons again committed holding, and again this put their offense way out of rhythm.  Ultimately they punted, and Derrick Williams fair-caught it at the 12.  After Ervin was stuffed up the middle, Drew Stanton again proved why he’s worth an NFL roster spot.  Seeing nothing, he tucked it and ran up the middle for a 27-yard gain.  After a 2-yard run by  Ervin, the third quarter came to a conclusion.

Two more Brown runs netted only five yards, and the Lions were forced to punt, just short of field goal range.  Rookie Atlanta tailback Thomas Brown was stuffed by Stu Schweigert for a one-yard loss, and then D.J. Shockley threw an incomplete pass.  Working out of the shotgun on 3rd-and-6, Shockley hit Eric Weems for a 15-yarder.  They tried to run Brown again, and again Schweigert came up to the line and made the play.  They ran Brown for three more consecutive plays, and he tallied up 13 yards and a first down, keeping the drive alive.  Back in the shotgun on 3rd-and-6, Shockley again looked to Weems, but couldn’t pull it off; Atlanta was again forced to punt.

The Lions completely misfired on this drive; a Stanton intentional grounding penalty on third down actually put the Lions back seven yards from where they started, on their own 13.  The rookie out of Alabama, John Parker Wilson, took over for the Falcons just shy of midfield.  Wilson dinked and dunked up to Lions’ 23, where undrafted rookie free agent DE Ryan Kees made a great stop on 3rd-and-3, forcing the Falcons to go to Elam again.  Elam nailed it, making the score 26-17.

Stanton took over, knowing this was his chance to flash the “gamer” skills I (and others) have been waxing rhapsodic about all offseason.  Working from the shotgun, Stanton hit D.J. Boldin for 9 yards.  Forgoing the huddle, Stanton  again helped himself out with a judicious six-yard run—and got out of bounds.  Again from the gun, Stanton hit rookie Carson Butler, who turned it up for a 24-yard gain.  Then, Aaron Brown earned himself a roster spot.  Seeing nothing, Stanton floated it to Brown as he released from his man—and Brown turned it upfield with a vengeance.  Freezing a DB with a sick stutter move, Brown turned it on and raced to the endzone—and then capped his 45-yard touchdown with a picture-perfect roundoff/backflip combination.  After sticking the landing, he got a –15 from the Zebra judge; a unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that, frankly, was bunk.  Since his celebration involved no props, teammates, obvious premeditiation, or taunting, there’s absolutely no on-the-books rule against what he did.  Oh, well, it’s preseason—I’ll take it.

With the score now 26-24, it was imperative the Lions’ defense come up with a stop—and that they did, with Stu Schweigert again coming up and making a big tackle for a loss, DeAndre Levy following suit on second down, and the rookie from D-II Saint Cloud State, Ryan Kees, holding the Falcons to a single yard on third down.  The Falcons punted.

Stanton took the reigns on his on 27, down by two, with 1:36 left on the clock.  This is exactly the kind of goofy scenario that Jim Schwartz relentlessly forces the Lions to practice.  Again from the gun, Stanton hit Billy McMullen for 8 yards.  Going no-huddle, he threw an incompletion intended for Aaron Brown—then hit Brown for six on third-and-2.  On the ensuing play, the Falcons jumped offside, making it an easy 1st-and-five for Drew.  He again hit Boldin for seven, and quickly spiked the ball to kill the clock.  He went deep to Sippio on second down, but couldn’t connect.  On third-and-10 from the 47, this was it; convert or lose.  Stanton, almost predictably, called his own number.  With an 18-yard scramble up the middle, Stanton  both converted, and got the Lions into field goal range.  With a spike to stop the clock with three seconds left, Jason Hanson took the field.  Spotted on the left hash, 47 yards out, Hanson put it just inside the left upright.  Victory.  It may not count in the record books, but there’s no doubt it counted with the players, the coaches, and the fans.

There’s a lot of discussion to be had about this game, and—rest assured—we will have it.  But for now, let us bask.  We have not only one decent quarterback, but we may have three.  The two picks most widely panned—WR Derrick Williams and RB Aaron Brown—both came up huge in this game.  The protection was decent, coverage was solid, and Kevin Smith looks like he’s ready to not only repeat 2008, but take a big step forward.

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meet the cubs: derrick williams

Here is what you need to know about Penn State WR Derrick Williams.  To me, that Rivals profile is the most intriguing, damning, and promising thing about the Lions' latter third-round draft pick.  Coming out of high school, Derrick Williams was ranked by Rivals as the #1 overall recruit in the country . . . as an "ATH", or athlete.  This designation is typically used when an astonishing athlete is utilized all over the field in high school, and so doesn't have a pure position--typically when a kid plays QB in high school to terrorize defenses, but doesn't project as a D-I signal caller.  At Eleanor Roosevelt High, Williams played at least a little bit of basically every offensive skill position, as well as some cornerback.  At an eyelash under six feet, running a mindblowing 4.37 40-yard dash at a Nike camp before his junior year in high school, there was no doubt that Williams had all the physical tools to dominate the college game, no matter what college he chose to attend.

Unsurprisingly, there was something of a to-do surrounding Williams' recruitment and committment.  Penn State?  At the nadir of the recent Paterno era; after four losing seasons in five years?  The #1 overall recruit in the country, a phenomenal spread option quarterback prospect, and a multi-talented athlete?  Exactly the kind of kid that Paterno "couldn't" or "wouldn't" recruit?  Penn State?

Yes.  Williams' father, Dwight, explained:

"This is a decision we're going to make, and it's not just about football," Dwight Williams said. "We feel like there's a strong commitment there, not only for athletes and their athletic ability, but there's a commitment for people to be successful in life. People can laugh or do whatever they want, but this is our decision."

The decision thus made, Derrick Williams went to Penn State (over Florida, Texas, et. al.), and immediately made an impact.  With 22 receptions for 289 yards and a score, and 22 carries for 105 yards and three TDs, Williams's pure physical talent made him a contributor.  A broken arm suffered against Michigan cut his debut season short, but there were high expectations for the remainder of his seasons at Penn State.

Unfortunately, he never quite lived up to them.  Over the next three seasons, Derrick Williams played in every single game, and started all but one--and continued to produce largely at the same rate.  His sophomore year, he hauled in 40 catches for 440 yards and 1 TD, while carrying 36 times for 145 yards and another score.   His junior year, the recieving saw an uptick: 55 catches for 529 yards and three scores--but the rushing fell off; just 16 carries for 101 yards and one score.  In his senior year, he really did well on the ground, getting 43 carries for 243 yards and three touchdowns--but the recieving cooled off again, to 44 catches for 485 and 4 TDs.

Now, there are some very encouraging trends there; the touches and yards went generally up from year to year, and the TDs went WAY up his senior year.  Also, none of these stats include his return yardage or touchdowns, which were significant (115 punt returns for 721 and 3 TDs, 50 kick returns for 1,115 yards and 2 TD).  But really, the stats alone show how Williams was used: as a "slash" type weapon; a player who's great with the ball in space, but not necessarily great at just getting it done as a position player.  That role doesn't particularly translate well in the NFL.  Devin Hester, Reggie Bush, Peter Warrick . . . these players have tried to make hay in the margins in the NFL, trying to translate great open-field ability into productive north-south offensive play.  They've all been variably successful for varying periods. In my opinion, Derrick Williams' production in college points to a low ceiling for him in the NFL; he'll be never be an elite wideout like his 6'-0", 194#, 4.40 speed* would suggest.

The good news in all this?  The Lions have no expectations that Derrick Williams will develop into an elite wideout.  They don't particularly care that he does not boast amazing hands, nor incredible strength, nor surgically precise routes.  He's an athlete, a playmaker, and a gamebreaking return man--and that's exactly what they want him to be.  The question isn't whether he can overcome his lack of production as a college WR to become an excellent pro WR--the question is, can he be exactly what he was in college, in the pros?  The answer, as always, is tough to divine.  Quoth the Grandmaster:

“We need a returner. My philosophy on special teams is not to be safe and to find a guy that can catch the ball and fair catch it. We’re going to try to get some explosiveness, try to score. So a guy like Derrick Williams brought great value there.”

Issue #1 is his speed.  Tremendously fast for a high school player, it appears as though Williams got no faster in six years.  It's possible that the Nike camp time was somewhat inflated (er, deflated?), but from the summer before your junior year of high school and the spring after your senior year of college, you typically grow, strengthen, and mature physically.  To show zero improvement whatsoever is a little odd.  *By the way, to clear up some confusion, Williams cut a horrid 4.58 at the combine, then (rather lamely, I thought at the time) blamed it on a case of the flu.  However, he proved me--and the doubters--wrong by cutting a 4.37 and 4.41 at PSU's Pro Day.  Moreover, the straight-line track speed doesn't necessarily translate to pad-laden in-game speed.  For proof, I offer the one YouTube highlight reel:

We saw a lot of very very positive things on that highlight reel.  Williams displays great vision, burst, and instincts.  He shows a knack for finding daylight, setting up his blockers, and hitting a seam.  There's a wonderful quality he displays of running north-south unless he has to make a move, and then making just enough of a move to get back to running north-south.  That's an absolutely vital skill in a return man, and one that you don't often see in college.  

Unfortunately there are two things we didn't see him display on that tape: great hands, and elite speed.  That might sound a little odd, as he just clearly ran past a lot of defenders--but if you watch carefully, you'll see he's not covering ground at a breathtaking rate.  Skip to the 0:58 mark and watch carefully.  As the play progresses, note his progress as compared to the other white helmets.  After he hits the first pile, you'll note that he doesn't gain much ground on the players around him, even after he's broken into the open field.  Once the way is clear, he should hit another gear and streak to the house--but instead, he flies in formation with the tight ends and linebackers assigned to block for him.  Now of course, this doesn't mean that he's not faster than those guys, it just means that his shorts-and-t-shirt speed doesn't always translate to the field.  It should go without saying that the overall speed of the NFL blows away the college game . . . can he even be effective as a returner without that top gear?

Actually, deep speed might be the single most overrated attribute of pro prospects.  Especially as regards returners--there's a reason why "kick return" was listed as a separate ability on Madden for years.  Return ability isn't a value that can be derived from knowing a player's "speed" and "agility" ratings; it's something else entirely.  It's vision, it's instincts, it's an awareness of lanes and holes and angles.  Even without true home run speed, I'm pretty confident that Derrick Williams can step right in and be a very good NFL return man, maybe even a great one.  Most Lions fans over the age of 25 or so still light a candle every night for legendary returner Mel Gray, whose moves were electrifying, return averages through the roof, and return TD numbers pedestrian.  Just because Mel rarely took kicks or punts all the way to the house, didn't mean that he wasn't outstanding--nor did it invalidate the fact that he was an enormous asset to the Lions while he played.  Field position is extremely important, especially for a young offense struggling with consistency and third-down conversions.

In fact, let's look at that for a minute.  If you look at the 2008 numbers, the Lions were the 23rd-ranked team in kick return yardage, with 21.8.  The #1 team, the Titans, averaged 25.4.  This might not sound like a lot, but the Lions were kicked to an NFL-high 83 times; an increase of 3.6 yards per kick return translates to 298.8 yards!  If we do the same for punt returns, the Lions were ranked 24th with an 8.0 yards-per average.  The #1 team, the Bills, averaged 15.5.  The Lions didn't exactly force many punts, but even with just 21 returns, that would be 157.5 yards' difference.  Now, don't get too excited over this number, because kick and punt returns are different disciplines, and there are a lot of factors other than "Madden KR Rating" that go into this . . . but that's a difference of 456.3 yards.  The Lions left over four entire football fields' worth of field position on the table, just by having a below-average return unit instead of a great one.

I would be very curious to see the percentage of 2008 Lions drives that contained more than three third-down conversions.  Further, I'd be willing to bet that the number of Lions drives that contained more than four first-down conversions could be enumerated with a single digit.  Just think about Jason Hanson's incredible season last year, where he hit 8 of 8 50-plus yard field goals.  How many of those 456.3 yards would be needed to scoot how many failed drives to within his prodigious range?  How many of those 456.3 yards would be needed to make how many field goals touchdowns?  How many of those 456.3 yards would be needed to keep the other team's offense off the field for one or two more crucial minutes?  How many of those 456.3 yards would translate into how many wins on an 0-16 team?  Food for thought . . .

Derrick Williams might or might not be a great return man.  What about being a wide reciever?  It's absolutely indisputable that the Lions need a true slot wideout.  With Mike Furrey off to the Browns, and Shaun McDonald joining the Steelers, the Lions have signed a slew of warm bodies.  They're all going to audition for the role of Wes Welker: the quick, opportunistic playmaker working in the space created by the elite deep threat working the deep outside routes.  Derrick Williams has the exact frame and toolset to absolutely explode in this role.  However, his hands and route-running will hold him back.  He does not appear to be a natural pass-catcher--and his role at Penn State backs that up.  When you are a 6'-0", 194-pound, 4.40 wideout who was the #1 overall high school prospect in the nation, and you are in your senior year at a marquee school, and they're still using you primarily on screens, draws, reverses, and kick returns . . . there must be some pretty big holes in your game.  Then again, several sources I've read have speculated that his toolset is better suited to the pro game.  That his "slash" nature isn't his nature at all--it's due to his college coaches trying to maximize what they got out of his talents while he was there--not maximize his ability to play the wide reciever position.  It's entirely possible that with NFL coaches (Scott Linehan, Shawn Jefferson) focussing him in on being the best slot reciever he can be, he can in fact be a great slot reciever.

However, with early word out of rookie minicamp being that he really struggled to catch the ball, I'm guessing not.  Of  all the picks I've reviewed so far, this is the one I'm most disappointed with.  I absolutely think that this is a position of need--in fact, in one mock draft I did, I selected UNC WR/KR Brandon Tate with that 3.18 pick; a player with a practically identical skill set and resume.  In real life, Tate went with the very next pick, the 3.19, to the New England Patriots.  Soon enough, history will judge who's better at talent scouting: the Lions' front office, or me and Bill Belicheck.

Yes, that was a joke.

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meet the cubs: the first minicamp

The rookie class of 2009 had their first reps in Lion uniforms (sans the logo on the helmet, which, ever since Parcells made rookies "earn the star" in Dallas, has become the de rigeur move for the entire NFL) over the weekend.  Following Tom Kowalski, Dave Birkett, and Nick Cotsonika's updates over the weekend left us with a few notable impressions:

* Matt Stafford came out throwing--overthrowing, in fact.  Appearing anxious to please, his first few passes were a little wild.  This echoes the scouting reports of his Pro Day performance: he was rocketing balls as hard as he could on that day, too; overthrowing to try to impress.  However, he quickly settled down on Friday, and ultimately earned the praise of his fellow rookies.   As Killer noted, Stafford was (correctly) throwing before the recievers broke, so that when they made their break and turned around to look for the ball, it was already there--and moving fast.  A lot of Stafford's passes bounced off of hands that were either rusty, unused to such velocity, or both.  Former Georgia WR Sean Bailey, at rookie minicamp on a tryout, took a Stafford pass off the facemask on the first day.  Said Penn State WR Derrick Williams: "My impressions were, please don't take my head off today.  I tried to make sure that I had my head around. He's really good. He's going to be a great quarterback.”

* Brandon Pettigrew had arguably the easiest time catching Stafford's fastballs on Friday.  He was then held out of Saturday practices with a tight hamstring.  Honestly, the pass catching is nice--but we knew he had soft hands.  What I'm most anxious to see is his blocking, and that won't happen until the pads go on.

* Louis Delmas appears to be the real deal, flying all over the field, breaking up (and intercepting) passes, laying some hits, talking lots of trash, and (apparently) forming an early rapport with Matt Stafford.  Every reporter there  When the Grandmaster was asked if Delmas stood out, he said,"Yeah, he stood out. I think that's obvious to you, me and the American people."

* According to Killer, Zack Follett and DeAndre Levy appeared to be largely similar to Jordon Dizon, in terms of "size and appearance".  The difference, I would like to point out, is that Dizon neither led his conference in tackles for loss, as Follett did, nor boasted legit 4.5 speed, as Levy does.  Follett was a jaw-dropping playmaker all over the field for Cal, and--according to Schwartz himself--Levy's the "thumper" Schwartz was looking for in the middle.  Until the pads go on, we won't know if Levy'll be able to man the middle, but Levy's already put on a few pounds of muscle, and says he's looking to get up to a lean 240.  If he does that, he'll be the same size as Larry Foote, and much faster than Foote's ever been.  As sure of a tackler?  No.  A veteran leader?  No.  But just as big, and much faster--and, thereby, possibly a better fit for Guntherball?  Yes.

* Derrick Williams dropped a few passes on Friday, and struggled to field punts cleanly on Saturday.  Most reports from minicamps around the NFL noted that their rookies looked quite rusty, so I'm going to give Williams the benefit of the doubt there--though, it should be noted that Williams was drafted not for his hands, but for what he does once the ball is in them.

* Sammie Hill looked as advertised: raw but big.  His weight has now creeped up to "330" in the latest Killer article about him.  By training camp, one wonders if he'll be a "lean 400".  All reports were that Hill looked legit amongst his peers out there, but that he wasn't that well-conditioned; he was the first to be sucking wind on Friday.  None of this should come as a huge surprise, seeing as he was used to effortlessly mauling DII competition.

* I didn't hear much about TCU RB Aaron Brown's performances, though Mayhew did say that he can "help us on returns and help us on third downs" over the weekend.

* I've helped stoke the Lydon Murtha flames a bit, but he was held out of practices with a tweaked hammy.  This is not good news for a player whose biggest knock is his inability to stay on the field.  Here's hoping that NFL trainers and conditioning can keep him loose and limber for training camp and the preseason.

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