Old Mother Hubbard: The Safeties

We round up the defense with the last line of defense: the safeties. Though the cornerbacks took the brunt of public criticism in the last two games, many of the high-profile failures of the secondary in 2012 were actually the fault of the safeties. With Louis Delmas at full speed, Amari Spievey growing into his newfound role, and veteran Erik Coleman coming on board as an insurance policy for both spots, this wasn’t supposed to happen. So what happened?

First, let's look at what 2010's Safety Old Mother Hubbard had to say:

Louis Delmas is an athletic, hard-hitting safety who can make big plays against the run and the pass. Despite being limited by injury, he proved extremely effective on the blitz this year. If he can go full speed, he should be one of the best safeties in the NFL next season.

Amari Spievey is a talented, hardworking kid with the raw ability to be a very good safety. He struggled with consistency and mental mistakes in his first season, and this offseason will be crucial in finding out if he’s a long-term starter or medium-term rotational player.

Chart?

Chart.

The best safety in the NFL this year was Troy Polamalu, with an outstanding +19.2  PFF overall grade. He was the NFL’s best blitzing safety, 4th-best in coverage, and 3rd against the run. His 3 penalties called on 930 snaps dinged him just a little. He was 2nd-best in +WPA with a walloping +1.90, meaning he made a huge impact on the Steelers’ chances to win, and his 3rd-best 50.5 +EPA shows he was constantly making positive plays.

On the other side of the PFF ledger, the worst-graded safety in football was Minnesota’s Jamarca Sanford. The polar opposite of Polamalu, Sanford was strongly negative in pass rush, coverage, and run-stopping (but got a small boost from only being flagged once). His –18.2 overall grade was powered mainly by a –15.2 coverage mark, also worst in the biz.

Now here's where things get interesting: Sanford had a 32.2 +EPA and 0.77 +WPA, which were the 23rd- and 36th-best figures in the NFL, respectively. This means Sanford was generating enough positive production to rate as a decent starting safety, but his coverage gaffes were so repeated and pronounced that PFF graded him the worst safety to crack an NFL rotation!

Disclaimer?

Disclaimer.

Pro Football Focus grades are based on TV footage, and while I believe completely in what they do over there, downfield pass coverage grades are the area where they have the hardest time figuring out what’s going on. Without knowing each player’s assignment, and most of the secondary being offscreen at the snap, PFF safety grades have limitations.

Advanced NFL Stats' +EPA measures the expected points added by a player’s positive plays, but cannot measure failures. Cornerbacks are the position where “lack of failure” is arguably more important than positive playmaking, so again—there are real limitations here. Same applies to +WPA: a timely interception can swing the likelihood of winning around very quickly, but a surrendered touchdown can too—and that won’t show up in +WPA.

To sum up: PFF grades and ANS metrics are never going to be more variant and contradictory than when assessing cornerbacks (and safeties are a close second). However, this increases the value of both sets of data. Though we’re going to have to fill in the gaps ourselves, it’s better to know reality lies in the gap than unwittingly treating one number as gospel.

The top-graded Detroit Lions safety was Louis Delmas. Delmas, most Lions fans probably have a vague sense of, was not the playmaker he was in 2009, despite being fully recovered from his groin injury of 2010. In coverage, that’s a good thing: safeties are typically only noticed in coverage when there’s a problem. Pro Football Focus backs this notion up: Delmas was +4.7 in coverage, 10th-best amongst 87 qualifying NFL safeties.

Overall, Delmas's -2.0 grade was slightly above the normalized NFL average of -2.8. But was he really that bad? Drilling down into his grades, we see mostly positives and neutrals and one big nasty red mark: a brutal –5.3 against San Francisco. Most of that was 3 missed tackles against the run, but some of it was allowing three first downs through the air on three “Thrown At”s.

So except for Week 6, and the last 5 games of the regular season (out with an MCL injury, and 'scope to repair it) Louis Delmas, veteran safety, was back there doing his job.

We missed “Da Missile.”

If we in his horrific wild card performance (-6.5, clearly not ready to play), Delmas graded strongly negative against the run in five games, and strongly positive only once. In 2010 and 2009 those ratios were 4:3 and 3:4, respectively. On the flip side, Delmas’s 2011 coverage grades had 2 negatives and 2 positives, an improvement from 4:1 and 3:2.

Statistically, Delmas did very well, allowing just 15 of the 28 balls thrown his way to be caught. He also held completions to an average of just 9.7 yards each, 7th-best in the NFL. He had no interceptions, and just four passes defensed, but also allowed just one touchdown and a 25th-best opponent passer rating of 80.4 (NFL avg.: 90.7).

While Delmas's pass coverage is very good and getting more consistent, his run-stuffing is getting worse. He had 46 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 18 defensive stops. But he missed 12 tackles, 1 per every 3.88 tackles made (seventh-worst in the NFL, well below average of 8.6). In fact, using my metric of “missed tackles per tackles made” (solos plus one-half assists), Lions safeties ranked 64th (Spievey), 80th (Delmas), and 85th (Harris) out of 86.

It’s possible, then, that this is schematic. Relying on the back seven to gang-tackle players the line has allowed through is bound to make it much tougher on the safeties. However, I’ve seen Louis Delmas singlehandedly drop Steven Jackson in the open field with a full head of steam. He’s a better tackler than that.

+EPA agrees with me. Delmas's 19.3 total is low, you'd think because he only played in 12 games. But he was ranked 52nd of 123 in total +EPA, and 50th in +EPA/game with 1.61. His plus-play production was mediocre at best. His +WPA is right in line with his +EPA (and the NFL average) at 0.52. In terms of playmaking, Delmas was at what baseball people call "replacement level;" you can get a safety like that anywhere.

So what now? Last year, I said if Delmas “can go full speed,” he should be “one of the best safeties in the NFL.” Instead he was good in coverage, poor against the run, and mostly invisible when counting the kind of splash plays that used to be his calling card.

Bottom Line: Delmas’s career is at a crossroads. Will he bloom into the all-around badass he looked like as a rookie? Or will he remain a good coverage safety who needs help from a partner? There’s no doubt he has the physical tools and the mental tenacity to be an elite, playmaking safety but something’s missing and I don’t know what.

Chris Harris was an odd, but valuable midseason addition. After the Lions picked apart Chris Harris and the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football, Harris was released—and the Lions picked him up. Harris’ –7.3 overall PFF grade was below the NFL average of –2.8, tied for 65th out of 86.  Harris was solid against the run; his +0.3 run-stopping grade was just above the NFL average of –0.3. He also kept his nose clean: no penalties called despite a 400-snap workload.

Unfortunately, Harris was just as susceptible to the pass in Detroit as he was in Chicago. He turned in five strongly negative coverage grades out of ten games played; none positive. In fact, he only had one positive mark all season long: a +1.3 against the run in Week 17 at Green Bay—yes, The Game Where They Passed For A Thousand Yards. His +EPA and +WPA were meager, even considering his reduced workload.

I don't mean to be overly harsh on Harris; switching schemes midseason only to be pressed into a starter's workload must be extremely difficult. His Pro Football Focus data for 2008, 2009, and 2010 reveals an average all-around NFL starter; he just had a profoundly down year. The 29-year-old Harris will have to earn 2012 playing time in camp, whether that's in Detroit or elsewhere.

Bottom Line: Chris Harris did about as well as you could ask of a guy who got cut midseason, picked up by another team, and pressed into starting the last five games of a playoff race: not very well. May return as the rotational third safety next season.

And now? The man, the myth, the enigma: Amari Spievey.

Drafted in 2010 to “fill a hole” at cornerback, Spievey’s odd-duck skill set and lack of conditioning got him an immediate switch to safety—and trip to the doghouse. Still, Spievey flashed brilliance in 2010. His physicality made the switch intact, and his not-quite-good-enough-for-cornerback hips still channeled impressive recovery speed.

Of course, he needed that speed as he struggled to keep his head above water last season, and this season was no different. His –11.5 overall grade was partly informed by his –2.2 blitz grade and –3.2 coverage marks, but was his brutal –7.5 against the run that dragged his PFF grade into the murky depths.

Technically, Spievey got better as the season went along; his two positively-graded games came in Weeks 14 and 16, at home against the Vikings and Chargers. But his Wild Card performance was a brutal -4.6, and the rest of his 2011 chart is dripping red as well.

Spievey’s 1:3 TD-allowed-to-INT ratio helped lower his opponent passer rating to a team-best (NFL 13th-best) 63.4. However, his 62.5% completion percentage and 14.6 YpR shows he was a lot easier to beat through the air then Delmas. On the ground, Spievey was the surest-tackling safety the Lions had, missing one for every 4.96 solos+half-assists. Unfortunately, that’s still 64th-worst in the NFL, and significantly worse than the NFL average of 8.6. As I said, scheme may play a part here, but . . .

Spievey's three picks gave him the best +EPA of any Lion at 22.9; that's not great. However, of that meager production he wrung +0.65 +WPA, slightly above-average and the best the Lions had to offer.

Bottom Line: Spievey is no less an enigma than when the season started, but the flashes of brilliance remained flashes and the prolonged stretches of awful remained awful. Like Delmas, his performance in 2012 will decide his long-term future.

SHOPPING LIST: A common theme is developing: “The Lions have some decisions to make” about the safeties. Delmas returns as the starting free safety—but is he a game-changing foundational piece, or a solid role player? Harris supplanted Coleman as the third safety, but will he return? Spievey will have a chance to earn that spot next to Delmas—but the Lions NEED better production than what he’s been able to provide; the safety play in 2011 was unacceptably poor

A veteran upgrade over Spievey, or a talented rookie to compete with him, are a must if the Lions are to shore up the secondary that was so thoroughly exposed at the end of 2011.

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Nick Injured? It’s Fairley Insigificant

Nick Fairley showed up to this morning’s practice in a walking boot, obviously unable to work. Confirmed by a  Tweet from the Detroit News’ Chris McCosky, the previously-thought-to-be-minor injury became a possible stress fracture. To steal a meme from MGoBlog:

PANIC?

No, no panic. For starters, this is training camp—bumps and bruises happen. For seconds, this training camp comes after the longest absolutely-no-work layoff in modern NFL history. Normally, these guys have already gone through several sessions of “no contact” (but actually mostly full speed) OTAs, plus a full minicamp. The player-only workouts were just conditioning and 7-on-7 stuff; this is the first real football of 2011 and it’s already August. There were bound to be more nicks and dings than usual.

Here's the other thing: depth. Remember The Parable Of The One-Eyed Beggar? This is partly why the Lions have Corey Williams AND Ndamukong Suh AND Sammie Hill AND Nick Fairley AND Andre Fluellen: so that they can lose one or two of those guys for a while without much of a dropoff.

The flipside is that the Lions’ defensive line must keep rolling waves, so they’ll need Fairley back—but not the way they needed Ndamukong Suh last season. Suh played a thousand snaps, nearly every single down the defense was on the field last season. Fairley was never going to carry that big of a load even if he showed up to camp in the best shape of his life, dominated every rep, and didn’t suffer so much as a paper cut. He’s an extremely talented player and he seems like a nice, fun-loving guy—but he doesn’t need to be an All-Pro for the Lions to have a good defense this year.

If you want to read the tea leaves for how this season’s going to go, don’t scour the injury report, check out Tom Kowalski’s first “Camp Observations” posts:

An interesting play developed during the first period of team work. The Lions' offense went to the line of scrimmage and center Dominic Raiola changed the call. Safety Louis Delmas sensed something and quickly changed the defensive call and shifted the defensive alignment. Seeing that, Raiola quickly reverted back to the original call and snapped the ball. It was a running play wide left and Jahvid Best broke it for a long gainer, bringing cheers from the crowd.

I love every single thing about that quote. I love that we see the value of Raiola: there are bigger centers who can run block better, but he improves the whole offense with his ability to read a defense and change the protection—or even the play. It’ll never show up on a stat sheet, or even in Pro Football Focus’s grades, but it Dominic Raiola brings a wealth of value to this team that that cannot be denied.

Second, I love that Louis Delmas is maturing. His groin healed from last season, allowing him to again play like “Da Missile” we saw in 2009—but he’s coming into his own as a complete safety now. He has the recognition skills and leadership ability to put the rest of the defense in position to succeed; he’s not just flying around putting shoulders into people.

Third, I love that Jahvid Best can still hit the home run. We didn’t see much of his “jets” after the first few games, but I believe he’s going to make a believer out of everyone this year. Delmas and Best were two guys who were supposed to be huge for the Lions last year, and they weren’t. If they can play at the level described above, they’ll improve the team just as much as Tulloch, Durant, or any of the offseason additions.

Technorati Tags: nfl,training camp,detroit lions,louis delmas,dominic raiola,jahvid best,nick fairley

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Safeties

Throughout the OMH series I’ve been waiting to get to this one; I’ve got a really cool data visualization thing I wanna do with each complete unit. So, the safeties:

The top-graded safety is Philadelphia’s Quintin Mikell, who absolutely murdered the coverage and run-stopping grades. Despite below-average blitzing, and being called for four flags, Mikell’s performance still made him the highest-graded safety, by far. In fact, only four safeties cracked positive double digits. 50 of the 85 safeties were within +5.0 and –5.0 . . . just as with OLBs, though, I wonder if this is a manifestation of the way PFF grades, or if it reveals something innate about the game of football. Safeties are very difficult to grade from TV broadcast footage—but perhaps the safeties simply don’t impact the game as often as other positions?

There’s no question who the Lions—and their fans—view as their top safety, or even top defensive back. Louis Delmas was a player who exploded onto the scene out of Western Michigan in 2009—and while we knew he gambled a bit, and missed almost as often as he hit, he made some flat-out incredible plays his rookie year. I think, though, most of us had a sense throughout this year that while he wasn’t making obvious mistakes, he wasn’t making many highlight-reel plays either.  He seemed to be toned down, the edge taken off. Was that maturation, or regression?

Delmas took 940 snaps, and his overall grade matched the NFL average to within three tenths of a point. He was a full notch below average in coverage (-3.9), but a shade above average in run defense. However, he was an impressive +4 in pass rush; the fifth-best blitzer in the NFL! These numbers, however, reveal an overall regression from 2009, when Delmas played almost exactly the same number of snaps, and was a bit above-average in every dimension.

Last August, I wrote a piece called “Something’s Rotten in Delmas,” a slightly over-the-top look at the rumors about Delmas’s injured groin. Pro Football Talk had sources telling them Delmas might be lost for the year, while every Detroit scribe’s sources were pounding the table in denial. The truth, I guessed, was somewhere in between:

The Lions and Delmas are absolutely right to be cautious with the injury. Further, if the specialist Delmas saw didn’t recommend surgery as a first course of action, then why do it unnecessarily? But this is clearly more serious than “a short-term thing.” I don’t believe that limited practice reps are going to seriously harm Delmas’s play in 2010—but if going full-speed sporadically isn’t “restful” enough for the groin to completely heal before the season starts, Delmas may not be able to go at full speed all year.

For the first nine weeks of the year, Delmas appeared to be his usual self: except for a –0.8 against Philly (entirely due to a –1.6 coverage grade, likely a single mistake) he was graded neutral or positive in every single game. Then, after a very nice +2.6 against the Jets, something happened. He went six straight weeks without a positive grade, including three awful ones against the Cowboys, Pats, and Bucs (-1.9, –3.8, and -2.9 respectively). He missed week 16 with a concussion, then turned in a great final game; earning an impressive +2.7 run defense grade against AD and the Vikes.

I can only speculate [Ed. Note: SPECULATE] that Delmas aggravated the groin injury, or suffered some other malady, in between his great performance against the Jets, and his weakly negative one against the Bills. Seriously, he turned in a +1.9 coverage grade against Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes, but –1.2 against Steve Johnson and Lee Evans? Delmas had groin surgery immediately after the season, which jibes perfectly with my theory. If Delmas is taking the time to fully recover, he should be full-speed for 2011—and back to being “Da Missile” we saw in 2009, two and a half years wiser.

Bottom Line: Louis Delmas is an athletic, hard-hitting safety who can make big plays against the run and the pass. Despite being limited by injury, he proved extremely effective on the blitz this year. If he can go full speed, he should be one of the best safeties in the NFL next season.

The good news, and bad news, is that Amari Spievey was the Lions’ top-graded safety in 2010. The third-round draft pick, who we’d hoped would step in and start at cornerback, instead struggled and switched to safety. Learning the new position slowed him down some more, but he saw spot duty in weeks 3, 5, 6, and 8. Finally, he got his first full workload against the Jets, and he played the game of his career to date: a +3.3 overall graded, 7-tackle performance. He was average or better in every category, and a very strong +2.9 against the run.

Unfortunately, Spievey hit a rough patch immediately after: three straight negative games against Buffalo, Dallas, and New England, struggling against the run and the pass. Then, he tightened it up against Chicago, Green Bay, and Miami; his grades in every dimension (and therefore overall) were flatly average. He finished off the season with a very strong +2.6, boosted by his only positive coverage grade of the year, a +1.9.

Looking at the stats, Spievey's a sure tackler. I added tackles and assists, and divided by missed tackles, and Spievey's rate of 7 tackles per miss is below the league average of 8.2. I am a ding-dong. I interpreted this stat exactly backwards. Spievey missed tackles a little more frequently than average. Thanks to commenter Laimbrane for spotting this! Interestingly, both Spievey and Delmas were thrown at a little less than the NFL average safety—but Spievey allowed a worse (better) passer rating, 82.5 to Delmas’s 89.2. Again, Spievey was just better than the NFL average of 85.7.

Seeing a pattern? The PFF stats paint a slightly rosier picture of Spievey’s coverage than the grades do—and while normally I’d trust the grades more, safety play is very difficult to grade from TV footage. Overall, it’s safe to say Spievey played just below average in coverage, and a bit above average against the run, and on the blitz. He definitely had trouble focusing, and gave up some big plays, but showed the resiliency to shake it off and minimize his mistakes.

Bottom Line: Spievey is a talented, hardworking kid with the raw ability to be a very good safety. He struggled with consistency and mental mistakes in his first season, and this offseason will be crucial in finding out if he’s a long-term starter or medium-term rotational player.

As for the rest?  Well, C.C. Brown is not likely to return. Interestingly, C.C. covered okay enough but was a disaster against the run. He graded out at –6.5 and missed 10 tackles to just 32 made. UDFA Randy Philips flashed some promise in camp, but “spit the bit” as Tom Kowalski likes to say. He didn’t do well with a heavier preseason workload, and moved up and down off the practice squad. He got only 13 reps of live action. Paul Pratt got just one rep at safety; I believe they see him as a corner. John Wendling got 59 reps, but is clearly a special teams specialist. Erik Coleman was signed as a street free agent after being released from Atlanta.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions are set at one safety position with Louis Delmas, who played admirably despite fighting through injuries. Amari Spievey showed enough promise to be considered a future starter, but will have to fight off FA signee Erik Coleman. Coleman has limitations, but will be a nice veteran insurance policy for both young safeties. Wendling and Philips will likely fight it out for the fourth safety spot. If the Lions want to make this a position of emphasis, they could acquire a clear-cut upgrade over Spievey, but my guess is they think they’re set here.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,2011 nfl draft,team needs,safeties,louis delmas,amari spievey,erik coleman

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Tinderbox: Sellout!

  . . . or close enough.  The Lions have been granted a 24-hour extension to sell out Sunday’s game, which typically means they have an agreement in place to sell any remainders to a local business.  This means those of us who live close enough to Detroit to root for the Lions, but far enough from Detroit to make going to the games a chore, will be able to watch on TV without dragging themselves (and their children, if applicable) to a far-flung bar.  This is good.

Louis Delmas and DeAndre Levy practiced Thursday morning, meaning it’s highly likely they’ll be available against the Eagles—and thank goodness; the defense will need all the help it can get.  The picture is murkier, though, when it comes to Cliff Avril.  Avril had surgery on his broken finger on Tuesday—but, as the Wayne Fontes Experience tells us,  Jim Schwartz has kept the details of his knee injury a state secret . . .

In TLiW, news, I’m working on the Eagles Watchtower; hoping to get that up tomorrow rather than Sunday this time!

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Something’s Rotten in Delmas

Sometime during OTAs, Louis Delmas injured his groin.  He missed June minicamp completely, and started off training camp on the PUP list.  With lots of rest, and a little rehab, it was presumed that Delmas would soon be back to normal, running all over the field and making plays as usual.  All seemed to be going according to plan, with rumblings of Delmas returning to practice soon—when out of nowhere, ProFootballTalk.com published a rumor that  Delmas’s injury might not only be serious, but season-threatening:

Though he's widely expected to hit the practice field soon -- indeed, a source with knowledge of the situation insists that Delmas will be ready to go when the regular season begins -- we're hearing that there's quiet concern within the organization regarding the possibility that Delmas ultimately will need surgery to repair the injury.

If you parse the story carefully, you realize something interesting.  Mike Florio and/or the PFT staff heard the rumor about the Lions considering surgery for Delmas, and attempted to confirm with a source—and instead, that source insisted Delmas would be ready to go!  Apparently, the intial rumor was strong enough to run the story anyway, with this foreboding prophesy at the end:

Expect the team and the player to deny the possibility that surgery is needed. But then pay attention to Delmas' health throughout the year -- and whether there's eventually an "aggravation" that results in the player being placed on injured reserve in advance of a procedure aimed at fixing the situation.

This story sent Lions writers scurrying to their figurative Rolodexes:

Chris McCosky of the Detroit News declared the PFT rumor debunked, citing sources calling the report inaccurate.

Carlos Monarrez of the Freep quoted Schwartz as saying "Louis is a short-term guy. We're erring on the side of caution," though The Grandmaster admitted surgery had been discussed at one point.

Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com dismissed the "internet rumor" as well, noting that when Delmas was asked if he had any concerns about starting the season, he said: "Not at all, not at all".

With all the various stories and angles, a picture was emerging: Delmas had seen a specialist, surgery had been discussed, but rest and rehab was thought to be the best option, and everything was on track.  Nobody was worried, it was a short-term thing, and as soon as his conditioning was up to speed, he’d be going full-bore in no time.  But PFT’s story haunted the situation like a specter, filling our heads with terrible knowledge:

Expect the team and the player to deny the possibility that surgery is needed. But then pay attention to Delmas' health throughout the year -- and whether there's eventually an "aggravation" that results in the player being placed on injured reserve in advance of a procedure aimed at fixing the situation.

This grim prophesy weighed on me as I read this week’s practice reports.  Delmas was constantly in and out of the sessions—though Schwartz claimed it was all according to schedule.  But, when Delmas missed practice on Thursday, and admitted he’d be missing today’s session as well, it became clear that he’s not nearly ready for a full slate of full-speed practices and games.  Delmas admitted to the Freep’s Dave Birkett that it’s something that’s going to affect him for quite a while, possibly into the season:

“It’s a groin injury, so the more you beat it up, the more it’s going to affect you in the long run,” Delmas said. “Take one day on, two days off, one day on, two days off; that’ll be the best treatment for it.”

And how long does Delmas expect to follow that schedule?

“The groin injury is never going to heal if you keep aggravating it, so I guess that’ll be something I have to deal with,” he said.

The Lions and Delmas are absolutely right to be cautious with the injury.  Further, if the specialist Delmas saw didn’t recommend surgery as a first course of action, then why do it unnecessarily?  But this is clearly more serious than “a short-term thing.”  I don’t believe that limited practice reps are going to seriously harm Delmas’s play in 2010—but if going full-speed sporadically isn’t “restful” enough for the groin to completely heal before the season starts, Delmas may not be able to go at full speed all year.

Delmas’s impact on the defense last season was immediate, and dramatic.  Given the state of the rest of the secondary, his importance cannot be overstated.  If his groin can’t take the punishment, if he goes under the knife and on the shelf—if, indeed, his noble heart were to crack . . . the rest would be silence.

Technorati Tags: nfl,louis delmas,preseason,training camp

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Tinderbox: Fireside Chat & Big CBA Post Coming

This Sunday night, I’ll host the latest Fireside Chat podcast, which will include an interview with Sports Illustrated’s Tim Layden about his new book: Blood, Sweat, and Chalk: The Ultimate Football Playbook: How the Great Coaches Built Today’s Game.  Besides being a very well-written book, right up my alley, Tim’s a tremendous interview.  Incredibly well-spoken, well-researched, and quick-thinking, he gave a lot of great answers to my stuttering, “um-“ laden questions.  We’ll discuss the Lions, the zone blitz, Rex Ryan, and the sharing of ideas between the college and pro games.  I’ll also review the first full week and first padded practices; I’ll be soliciting your stories from training camp, and the annual Lions Uncaged event at Ford Field (which, unfortunately, I won’t be attending this year).

I’ve also been working on an enormous Here’s What I Think About the CBA post; if I don’t get it up today, it will certainly go up this weekend.  It’s big.

Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com wrote that there’s chatter that Louis Delmas’ groin injury may ultimately require surgery—and some folks in the Lions organization believe he should be shut down now and surgered before it gets any worse.  Florio, though, relays the fact one of his own sources  insists that Delmas will be 100% for the regular season in the same story.  Local Lions writers immediately set about debunking the article.  Killer’s Delmas story quotes Jim Schwartz:

"I (can't) spend all my time addressing rumors and stuff like that. My policy in training camp is that I'm not going to specifically comment on injuries," Schwartz said after Thursday's practice. "I've done a good job of letting you guys know when there's short-term stuff and when there's long-term stuff, and there's nothing that's changed with Louis. Louis is a short-term guy and we're erring on the side of caution. He got a pulled groin in minicamp and he's conditioning. I'm not going to take that bait, I think that's foolish of me."

Reassuring--but then, Florio's story ended with this scary paragraph:

Expect the team and the player to deny the possibility that surgery is needed. But then pay attention to Delmas' health throughout the year -- and whether there's eventually an "aggravation" that results in the player being placed on injured reserve in advance of a procedure aimed at fixing the situation.

Eep.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,louis delmas,sports illustrated,tim layden,training camp,lions uncaged,podcast

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Detroit Lions vs. Lansing Firefighters All-Stars

UPDATE: This post has been restored to its prior length.  Thanks.

Tuesday night, the Lions’ annual charity basketball squad swung through Lansing Eastern High School's fieldhouse, for a night of “Harlem Globetrotter-style” hoops, as well as autographs, activities, fundraising, and laughs. Despite this being the 8th annual occurrence of said game, I’d never made it out before—but an invitation from a friend sounded too good to turn down. It was.
When I came in, former Lions Luther Elliss and Cory Schlesinger were “warming up” with a variety of horribly missed trick shots.

Shortly thereafter, Louis Delmas, Cliff Avril, Drew Stanton, and—I’m sorry to whoever this dude is—an older Lion who I’ve never heard of, and whose name I didn’t hear correctly, came out and joined the shootaround.





The first introduction was Delmas, and he exploded out of a throng of teenaged autograph seekers to slide around, showboat, and call for applause . . . the announcer said “Yes, folks, he will do that all night. He can’t play basketball, but he will do that all night.” The announcer had some fun with Elliss as well, announcing his weight as 340 pounds—and Elliss first sucked in and shook his head, then glumly nodded and extended his belly. Luther's size, though gave him a decided advantage on the tipoff:

By the way: yes, Cory Schlesinger is as wide as he is tall.  At first, it looked like the game was going to be a half-serious attempt to play basketball; shortly after it started, the announcer said, "Was that a 2-3 zone? Did you guys actually practice this year?" Thinking it would be "half-serious" was a thought too serious by half.  The Lions quickly put in their small lineup:

The game immediately regressed—or possibly, progressed—into an all-out laughfest, with trick shots, poorly-advised threes, kids subbing in and out, and low field goal percentage. I kept my kids informed on who the players were, what position they played, etc.  My eldest immediately fell for Louis Delmas, whose locks were up in a ponytail. Whenever he jacked up a terrible three-ball, she was transfixed, ready to cheer.
After the first "half," it was time for autographs and pictures. Each Lion had his own line, though Cliff Avril was initially distracted by the chiropractic display's massage chairs. My two elder kids (the little one had swimming lessons) agreed that Drew Stanton's autograph should be the first we get.
My mother, during Drew's MSU days, taught my daughter to say, "Drew Stanton, what a babe!" whenever he appeared onscreen. This time, though, she held her tongue . . . possibly because of the close proximity of Louis Delmas:

Sorry about the blurry pic, his tatted arms presented too much awesome for one lens to focus on. Next up, Cliff Avril . . . insert similar comment about how I didn’t know I was buying tickets to the gun show, etc.:

After Cliff, the siren song of the other activities was just too much for the kids to keep standing in line. The kids ran off to the basketball court, where the firefighters helped my son slam it home for the first time ever:

My daughter, meanwhile, transformed into a one-woman dance team:

She was then joined by a second girl, and after some adorable jaunts up and down the court, they went over to one of the firefighters–as it turns out, he was the other little girl’s dad. They kindly shared their chips.

Eventually, the horn sounded, and some more “basketball” was played. Louis Delmas, so businesslike up until this point, literally let his hair down: All pretenses of competition were dropped in the second half, and having fun became the sole name of the game. Away from the play, a game of Duck, Duck, Goose broke out, and it was such a draw that Cliff Avril took time-out from his second-half-long massage to participate! I tell you this for your own sake: do not challenge Drew Stanton to a game of Duck, Duck, Goose; he will destroy you.

At the end, the Lions assembled all the kids at the halfcourt line, with the firefighters on one side and the Lions on the other. They set up a football play, with Stanton taking a shotgun snap, and Avril going deep. With a borrowed miniball, the Lions faced off against the defense (I see great potential in their 62-2-3 defensive alignment), Stanton took the snap, hit Cliff Avril deep, who then, uh, drove the lane for a touchdunk?

I have to say, this was an amazing time. I wasn’t quite sure what to expect, but total freeform goofiness was much better than anything I’d imagined. My kids had a blast , as they repeatedly told me, and they were thrilled to meet some real Lions. As a charity fundraiser for a great cause, it was an awesome idea. As a meet-the-Lions photo op, it was far more satisfying than any I’d ever been to.

What blew me away was how awesome all the guys were; they had nothing but big grins and great attitudes all night long. They were incredible with the kids, and had a ball with the firefighters. I thanked Drew Stanton for coming up, and giving my kids an opportunity to see and meet with them, and he replied, “Hey, that’s what it’s all about.”

Even cooler to think about: after the game ended, the Lions drove the hour-plus back home, and were up in time for OTAs the next morning. As awesome as it is that former Lions are staying involved in the Detroit community–Schlesinger is a teacher in Allen Park!–it’s really amazing to me that current pros are taking time out of their “voluntary” workouts, driving all over the state, and helping other communities stay vibrant too. A big tip of the hat to everyone in the organization; stuff like this makes me proud to be a fan, regardless of what happens on the field.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,basketball,charity,louis delmas,drew stanton,cliff avril,luther elliss,cory schlesinger

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three cups deep: resignation

Icon SMI

No, I don’t mean that I’m resigning.  I mean we’ve reached—honestly, passed—the point in the season where we have an thorough understanding of what this team is and what this team is capable of.  They can give any team on any day a pretty good ballgame.  Sometimes, they can pass like a really good passing team.  Sometimes, they can run like a good running team.  Sometimes, they can bottle up the run.  Sometimes, they can rush the passer.  Coverage?  . . . well, sometimes other teams’ quarterbacks throw bad passes.

Unfortunately, it never all happens in the same game.  That’s just not good enough to beat anybody but the dregs of the league, and it’s certainly not good enough to go on the road and take out the #2 team in the AFC.  The offensive line, finally, got some decent push in the middle of the line—and what do you know, Kevin Smith had 12 carries for 54 yards in the first half.  With Stafford and Megatron both mostly healthy, they proved they’re too talented to contain.  The run defense was pretty stout, too; Cedric Benson carried the ball 36 times, but gained only 110 yards (3.06 YpC).

However, Stafford was simply off his game.  Almost all of his 26 throws were high and behind; most of the eleven completions required heroic effort by his targets.  The lack of offensive consistency simply killed the Lions on Sunday.  They were doing all the right things, getting breaks, and playing well, but just couldn’t complete drives.

The whole game turned on one of those drives.  Just before the second half, the Lions stalled in Bengal territory.  Schwartz sent Jason Hanson out to try a 55-yarder, outside, in December, in Ohio . . . and he hit the crossbar.  The Bengals came back the other way in a heartbeat, and hit a 39-yarder of their own.  Instead of going into the half down by only four, the Lions were looking up from the bottom of a 10-point hole.  They put the game on Matthew Stafford's shoulders, and that proved to be their undoing.

Pass defense was as good it’s been all year, with Julian Peterson bringing heat, and Buchanon, James, Delmas, and Henry making plays in the secondary.  Unfortunately, they couldn’t stop Chad Ochocinco forever, and in the second half he blew the game “open”.  At that point, the Lions abandoned the run, and . . . well, you’ve heard this story before.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: there's simply not enough ability on this roster.  There is some: a few incredible young talents, a few cagey veterans who are defying their age, and an impressive amount of heart.  These guys can feel how close they are—you can tell they came out of the locker room thinking they had a real chance to win.  They didn’t stop fighting, all the way to the end, and that tells you something about these Lions; even if we’re resigned to the notion that they’ll go 2-14, they sure as hell aren’t.

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three cups deep: a heaping helping

The worst thing about being an "optimist", besides having my fandom labelled and pigeonholed by others, is that when the Lions--or an aspect of the Lions, or a Lion--fails, I am not only sad for the fact that they failed, I'm also frustrated for having been proven wrong.  Eating that breed of crow is a rotten meal indeed.
Two of the favorite targets for "pessimist" Lions fans over the past few years have been left tackle Jeff Backus, and special teams coordinator Stan Kwan. In both cases, I've defended them. Certainly, Backus doesn't earn the "Elite LT" paycheck he draws, and Kwan's coverage and return units have been lackluster.  But, you see, there are extenuating circumstances!
Backus being asked to protect Jon Kitna in Martz's seven-step-drop-heavy offense put him--and Kitna--in a position to fail. The Lions have auditioned dozens for the left guard role during Backus' time here, and still haven't cast his best supporting actor.  Further, Backus has never missed a start, despite some pretty bad owies over the years.  He's also a much better option than Ephraim Salaam or Jon Jansen, both of whom were released by their previous teams due to their complete inability to protect quarterbacks.
Stan Kwan, the hand-picked successor to the King of All ST Coordinators, Chuck Priefer, oversees the best kicker-punter-snapper combo in the NFL: Hanson, Harris, and Mulbach.  Kwan’s return and coverage units were okay in 2007—though yes, quite bad in 2008. I'd defended him throughout last season, noting that Rod Marinelli's dismissal of special teams in general had stripped him of most of his talent.  When your head coach keeps eleven defensive linemen on the 53-man roster, there's not much room left for gunners and upblockers . . .
Yesterday, a heaping helping of crow, braised in whine, was set at my table.
Jeff Backus was completely overwhelmed by the Bears' defensive linemen. Despite coming into the game blitzing at ludcrous rate for a Tampa 2 defense, the Bears were able to dominate with just 4 defensive linemen.  DEs Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown combined for three sacks, and DT Isreal Idonji contributed a sack-fumble that O-Gun recovered.  Backus was smoked by speed rushes, bowled over by bullrushes, and generally defeated by whoever lined up across from him.  I’ve never labored under the illusion that he’s a great left tackle, but for the first time I’m seeing his play as a governor on the output of the offense: until we can acquire someone better, there is only so good this unit can be.
As for Kwan . . . well, there is absolutely no excuse for what Stan Kwan’s coverage and return teams did to the Lions’ chances for victory on Sunday.  According to the official game book, the Lions’ average starting field position was their own 18-yard-line.  The Bears’ average starting field position was the Lions’48.  As pointed out by Killer, the defense allowed the Bears only 276 yards of total offense—but 277 yards of punt and kick returns.
Let me simultaneously highlight and dismiss the fallacy in the implied conclusion there: each yard allowed on a return is one less yard the defense has to go; the possible yardage output by the Bears’ offense is depressed in lockstep with the increase in return yardage.  Don’t take the bait dangled by those two statistics!  The low total yardage doesn’t prove that the Lions defense completely bottled up the Bears’ offense, nor that rotten special teams completely sold the Lions up the river.
Fortunately, we have other statistics.  Cutler completed 18-of-28 passes for 141 yards. That's a meager 5.04 yards per attempt.  Cliff Avril, in just his second quarter back from injury, teamed up with Louis Delmas for back-to-back sacks in the second quarter.  The Bears converted only 33% of third downs in the first half.  Up until halftime, Matt Forte, besides his 61-yard romp, carried just 4 times for only 10 yards.
It's true: despite the Bears' average starting position already at MIDFIELD by the end of the half, the Lions were winning the offense-defense battle enough to keep the score tied. Then, on the opening kickoff of the second half, Johnny Knox burned the coverage for a 102-yard touchdown, and that was that.
Much has been made of the Lions' "second half collapses", and how Jim Schwartz needs to "learn that there are four quarters in a game".  Let me tell you something right now: this is a 3-13 team, talent-wise.  In four games against four teams considered strong playoff contenders coming into the season, Jim Schwartz has coached and gameplanned and guided this mix of has-beens and aren’t-yets to one win, two halftime leads, and one halftime tie.  Schwartz, Linehan, and Cunningham can't play the game for their team; eventually the fact that they’ve got no D-line, no secondary, and an offense full of guys who can barely buy beer will catch up with them.
Need proof?  Just Google "Titans Defense".  From the first page alone:

• Preseason gives Titans time to fix struggling D
• Titans' Defense M.I.A. in Texas Shootout
• Chris Johnson's career day wasted by Titans defense
• Rams Smash through Titans Defense
• Jaguars shred Titans defense
• Titans Defense: Titans DC Cecil on the hot seat?‎

UPDATE: appropriately, commenter "The Badge" caught me. That "Rams smash through . . ." link refers to a high school football game. Mea Culpa.
Last year, Jim Schwartz coached the same unit that generated those headlines into the second-best scoring defense in football.  Let's give him more than a few games with our wretched franchise before deciding he’s forgotten how many quarters makes a whole.
I suppose I should end this Three Cups Deep (and given it's lateness, more like Five) with an “optimistic” note, given the tenor of the opening paragraph.  Okay, here we go: Matt Stafford, before taking a seat with a knee injury, completed 24/36 passes for 296 yards.  Any “pessimists”/”realists” care to show me the game where Joey Harrington completed 67% of his passes for near-as-makes-no-difference 300 yards?  On the road?  Anyone?  No?
Okay cool. This sixth cup's for you, Matthew.

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three cups deep: at new orleans

In between church and my 10-year high school reunion, I swung the family truckster back home.  My intent was to trim and/or shave the steel wool that sprouts, unbidden, from my face and neck—but the timing was such that with the volume cranked, I could catch the first couple of drives.  By the time I’d finished trimming, shaving, and getting back in the car, the Lions were already down by 14.

I felt a sickening chill in my belly, and a fell curse haunted my thoughts: “Just like last year.”  The only thing I couldn't bear was already transpiring: on the road against an NFC South team, two breathtakingly quick scores out of their explosive passing offense, and the Lions had an L on their record before the first half of the first quarter.  Just like last year . . . only, not quite.

Don’t forget, last season the Lions were coming off of a 7-9 season (after a 6-2 start), and thinking playoffs, while the Falcons were coming off a worse-than-the-record-indicates 4-12 season, where the wheels completely fell off of the bus.  The Lions being down so far so fast was a complete stunner, a shock to the system.

This, however, was exactly what many predicted: Drew Brees exposing a questionable secondary.  While it all seemed painfully familiar, this was anything but a surprise—the Lions are an experiment in slash-and-burn football team agriculture, and the Saints are likely Super Bowl contenders.  In hindsight, what’s most painful to me is how despite Drew Brees threw six touchdown passes, and Matt Stafford threw three picks, for most of the game, the Lions were still in it.

Yes, thanks to a INT by a Lions cornerback (!), two forced and recovered fumbles, one returned for a TD (!!), and a kick and punt return that each went deep into the red zone (!!!), the Lions kept this one within two scores for most of the game.  And that, folks, is really the crucial difference between this year’s opener and last: 0-14 wasn’t the end of it.

Instead of going into full-on meltdown mode, the Lions’ D stiffened up, forcing two straight punts.  The O finally got on board with a field goal and a TD. Stafford threw a pick, but Dewayne White blocked the Saints' ensuing FG attempt. Stafford then hit Megatron for an apparent 67-yard TD--and after about 30 minutes of the refs playing Keystone Cops, Stafford punched it in himself. It went on like this, with the Lions (mostly) keeping the bleeding to a minimum, often failing to maximize their ensuing opportunities, but never totally collapsing. All the way up until the very end, the Lions were fighting tooth and nail, making plays to stay in it.

There were some things I saw that I didn't expect to see, though: after talking for months about how he was going to get after the QB, Gun actually went back into a shell after the first two bombs. I've noticed some grumbling about how he didn't bring the heat like he said he would, but let's face it: that's smart coaching. If the other team's quarterback is gashing your man coverage for 20-to-30 yards every time he drops back to pass, blitzing 40% of the time simply isn't an option.

Also, after being pretty damn accurate with his downfield passes all preseason, Stafford looked quite jittery; after throwing a lot of passes short in the first half, they all started sailing on him in the second half. He also threw one of his picks when he pump-faked and the ball slipped in his hand, producing a knuckleball that wasn't anywhere near where he intended.  Yes, Matt Stafford looked like a rookie--and while it's possible that Culpepper's veteran presence might have saved a turnover or two, I don't think the offense would have been much more effective--and it wouldn't have mattered anyway; the Saints were just too good.

This has been the crux of the "Start Stafford" argument all along: even if Culpepper is marginally better, him playing over Stafford wouldn't make much difference in terms of wins and losses--and even it would, one or two more wins on a 4-12 team won't matter anyway. According to the broadcasters, Stafford watched every game of Greg Williams' defenses for the last five years on film to prepare for this week; tying that to 60 minutes of live game experience is invaluable experience to a rookie. I still think that Schwartz made the right decision.

In the end, Drew Brees was just too much for guys like Eric King, who was starting in place of Philip Buchanon. Drew Brees was too much for Marquand Manuel. Drew Brees was too much for Avril and White, despite being without his blindside protector, Jammal Brown, and losing Brown's backup in the middle of the game. The Saints were the best offense in football last year, and show no signs of slowing down. Moroever, their defense appears to be dramatically improved, too; they're legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Whereas last year's Week 1 loss had us stunned, reeling, and searching for answers, this game showed us exactly what we, or at least I, expected to see: a shootout that the Lions lose. Believe it or not, the Lions never mustered this many points in any game last season! Now next week's task will be swing the every needle 180 degrees except the one for "Degree of Difficulty": the Vikings have an astounding running game, a lackluster passing game, and a suffocating defense that you can't run on; pressuring QBs and covering WRs without blitzing. I'll be there in person to see how the Lions adjust.

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Apropos of nothing

Quick update: I’m still working on the SFE (UFR) of the offense vs. Atlanta, but there’s no way I’m missing out on watching the Great Lakes Classic.  I’ll be Tweeting throughout, though, so be sure to follow @lionsinwinter for more!  Storylines of note:

• Lions DT Shaun Smith was a member of the other side just a few weeks ago, and to say the split was “contentious” doesn’t really cover it.  Smith is regarded as an extremely talented player who had trouble staying motivated; he ought to be motivated as he’ll ever be tonight.
  


• Touted second-rounder Louis Delmas is expected to finally get on the field tonight.  This is good.
  
  
• Oh, and something about a rookie quarterback?  I don’t know.

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have the Lions left the safety off?

A few days ago, the excellent Chrissie Wywrot of the official Lions site penned a piece on embattled safety Daniel Bullocks.  It almost seemed like a direct challenge to recent articles by Mlive.com’s Tom Kowalski and the Detroit News’s John Niyo suggesting that Bullocks is simply not in the mix to start next to rookie Louis Delmas.  Wywrot discloses something only hinted at before: Bullocks never really recovered from the blown ACL that sidelined him in 2007. 

Safety play is something difficult for the HDTV-deprived fan to quantify (thanks, 4:3 aspect ratio!).  We see the strong safety come up and lay the lumber, and we see big interceptions.  Sometimes, on replays from alternate angles, we can see a safety get beat deep.  However, unlike front-seven defenders, it’s impossible for the average fan to simply watch a safety for a snap, or series of snaps, to see how they’re doing.  Therefore, when it comes to ‘grading out’ a safety, we’re beholden to those who have access to game film.  Kowalski’s sources tell him that Bullocks’ angles were all wrong in 2008, and that the fluidity, quickness, and aggressiveness he displayed in 2006 appeared to be “gone”.  Killer added that when a defense gives up many long runs (as the Lions did in 2008), that’s often the result of poor safety play.

Interestingly, the Niyo piece I linked above appears to have been edited.  Here is the original quote, as snagged from The Den, Scout.com’s Lions forum: Correction: the below quote is actually from rotoworld.com, adding their own analysis to Niyo's.  The article linked above is apparently as it was first published.

“Gerald Alexander and Kalvin Pearson split time at strong safety with the Lions first-team defense during Tuesday's minicamp.  While rookie Louis Delmas is locked in at free safety, the new coaching staff has been less than content with its option at strong safety. They no longer see Daniel Bullocks as a starter, and free agent Marquand Manuel was recently brought on board as another option.”

This jibes with the other reports: the post-trade safety pecking order has Pearson and Manuel splitting time with the ones—but Pearson is thought of as a valuable backup, but too athletically limited to be a starter in the Lions’ new symmetrical defense.  This leaves the door wide open for Bullocks—but Bullocks has to recover his physical skills, rebuild his confidence in those skills, learn the new system, and then incorporate it all, so he can play as aggressively and instinctually as he did his rookie year.  Both from published reports, and my talks with some folks in the know, it sounds like he’s got about 1.5 out of 4 down pat right now—and an uphill climb to be relevant this fall.

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key performance indicators

In business, the traditional ways of measuring success are with the broad overall goals: sales, revenue, profit-and-loss.  Are sales up or down?  Are costs up or down?  Is the profit margin higher this quarter compared to last?  Compared to the same quarter last year?  These are all different ways of asking the same question--the BIG question: whether the company is making money.  That’s the bottom line, after all; success for a business is defined by making money, and the traditional metrics of success all focus on that.

However, a business is more complicated than that (and forgive, businessmen out there, if I’m serenading you with the business equivalent of “Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star”).  A simple evaluation based on whether the company is currently making money doesn’t provide any insight into whether the company is healthy and growing, whether that growth, if it exists, is sustainable, or if the company will still be profitable a year from now.  For that deeper insight, businesses look at more difficult-to-quantify, but possibly more valuable, ‘Key Performance Indicators’.  KPIs might be things like new customer retention, talent retention, customer willingness to recommend, etc.  If the business has had a tough quarter, that might be the result of broader economic trends or factors—but if new customers are increasingly loving the product and telling all their friends, the core business might be in a great position for growth.

Tomorrow, the Lions open a three-day minicamp.  This minicamp will be the first practice with pads, helmets, veterans, rookies, blocking, tackling, lifting, film, and everything else that comes with real, actual football.  This will be the first time that the Lions’ staff will get a chance to really evaluate most of the positions—you can’t evaluate the O-line, tight ends, or anyone on the defense when full-speed blocking and tackling aren’t allowed.  It will also be the first time that the rookies and veterans will practice and compete for jobs together—not rookies versus rookies, or vets versus vets, but the entire roster starting with a level playing field—in a drastic departure from the prior regime, there will be no depth chart until deep into training camp.

We won’t get to see this First Real Football in detail.  There won’t be any TV broadcast we can TiVO and replay.  There won’t be any live streaming play-by-play.  There probably won’t be any live Tweeting, either (since the Twitter-savviest Detroit sports journalist, Greg Eno, has informed me he won’t be there).  And of course, we won't have any of the typical measures of football success to go by--yards, points, wins, or losses.  So, we’ll have to wade knee-deep into the stream of quotes, blurbs, blogs, and articles that will flow through our favored information channels in the nights and days following these practices, and hope to catch some fish of truth*.

I’ve identified a few KPIs that Lions observers should watch with interest:

• The WRs vs. the DBs:  Calvin “Megatron” Johnson is awesome.  He’s completely sweet.  This is essentially the only known quantity on the Lions’ roster; we know that Megatron can and will match up against the very best the NFL has to offer—and will produce no matter how awful whoever’s throwing him the ball is.  This will allow us to measure what might be this team’s greatest on-paper weakness: the cornerback position.  Buchanon and Henry—and, if Henry slides back to safety . . . *gulp* . . . Eric King—lining up across from Megatron will give us a concrete idea of just how bad things will be for us at corner.  Will he dominate?  Most likely.  But the difference between him dominating, and him being completely unstoppable, could also be the difference between shutting down a Bernard Berrien—or not. 
• The interior OL vs. the interior DL:  Cliff Avril, in a recent interview on  Sirius NFL Radio, revealed that with DT Grady Jackson working out lightly at home, fourth-round rookie Sammie Hill has been running with the ones.  Hill, a very raw athletic talent, will get invaluable reps against smart, tough veteran center Dominic Raiola, and . . . a couple of other guys.  Raiola, of course, will be giving up somewhere between 20 and 40 pounds to the big youngster, but we’ll get a good sense of exactly how raw Hill is by how much of that size advantage Raiola will be able to neutralize with leverage, footwork, and technique.  Also, we’ll get a sense of which of the many mountain-sized men the Lions have acquired this offseason will be playing on either side of Raiola.  Young veterans Daniel Loper and Stephen Peterman are thought to have the inside track on the left and right guard spots, respectively--but Loper’s 6’-6” frame is probably better suited to tackle, and Peterman has been inconsistent at best throughout his career.  The Lions’ leadership is thought to believe that with the shift from a pass-heavy zone blocking scheme to a traditional, run-first, drive blocking scheme, will emphasize Peterman’s strengths and conceal his weaknesses.  Also, new OL coach George Yarno was Peterman’s OL coach at LSU, so he may be able to draw out the best in the former third-rounder.  Seeing how these two—or others—fare versus the Lions’ iffy, depleted, and very young DT corps will go a long way toward revealing just how much all these OL acquisitions have bolstered the line.
• The voice of the defense:  Lions fans everywhere jumped for joy when veteran MLB—and Detroit native, and U-M alum—Larry Foote forced his release from the Super-Bowl-winning Pittsburgh Steelers, and signed with the 0-16 Detroit Lions.  It was presumed that he’d be the “thumper” in the middle of the defense that the Lions seemed to have failed to acquire, and was also presumed to be the new veteran leader of the defense.  However, rookie S Louis Delmas took that role upon himself in the rookie-only minicamp, rallying his unitmates, and bantering constantly with QB Matt Stafford.  It will be interesting to see how these two interact with each other, and the rest of the defense.  Will their big-time personalities mesh—like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in Baltimore, and like Foote and Troy Polamalu did in Pittsburgh?  Or, will they clash?  This weekend will be the first indication we’ll get which of the new prized cattle is wearing the bell.
• The impact of the linebackers: On a team rated a putrid, horrible, awful, wretched, nasty, rotten, worthless 65 overall in Madden 2010, the Lions still have the 5th-highest-rated linebacking corps.  The veteran additions—Foote, and former Spartan Julian Peterson—will join Ernie Sims to form the most athletic and aggressive Lions linebacking corps since the late 80’s /early 90s groups that featured Chris Spielman, Mike Cofer, and others.  Moreover, they’ll have the confining, one-gap, stay-at-home, short-zone leashes attached to them by the Tampa 2 defense taken off, and their jobs will be honed down to two things: running upfield, and killing people.  Ernie Sims, I suspect, will have a dramatic renaissance in this scheme, living up to his impressive potential.  Even though Peterson and Foote have limitations in coverage, their games are both beautifully suited to this new Guntherball scheme as well.  Also, look out for Jordon Dizon; Cunningham seems to like him as well, and he should see a lot of time in the nickel packages.  Since we know that tackles Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus—and new acquisitions like Jon Jansen and Ephraim Salaam—struggle against speed off the edge, hope for the outside linebackers to be very disruptive.  They will not be allowed to actually punish the quarterbacks at this stage of the offseason, but if the news comes back that the linebackers are overwhelming the offensive line, then that is good news indeed.

*”Fish of Truth” is a good name for a band.

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the secondary is dead, long live the secondary

Ever since the brutal injuries to cornerback Bryant Westbrook and safety Kurt Schultz during the 2000 season, the Lions have been absolutely desperate for help in the secondary.  With the possible exception of the offensive line, the defensive backfield has been the most consistently disappointing Lions unit on the field over the past decade.  However, unlike the offensive line, disappointment has been the only thing consistent about the Lions' secondary.  While the offensive line has had the same left tackle and center for nearly a decade, it seems as though every year brings a new "secondary overhaul" . . . and every year brings more disappointment.

2001: Signed CB Todd Lyght, CB/S Robert Bailey, and S Chidi Iwouma.  Subtracted S Corwin Brown, CB Darnell Walker, and CB Marquis Walker.

2002: Drafted CB Andre Goodman and CB Chris Cash; signed S Corey Harris, S Brian Walker, CB Eric Davis, and S Bracey Walker.  Subtracted Terry Fair, Ron Rice, Kurt Schultz,  Robert Bailey, and Chidi Iwouma.

2003: Signed CB Dre' Bly, CB Otis Smith, and drafted S Terry Holt.  Subtracted Todd Lyght and Eric Davis.

2004: Signed CB Fernando Bryant, S Brock Marion, S Vernon Fox, and drafted CB Keith Smith.  Subtracted Brian Walker and Corey Harris.

2005: Signed S Kennoy Kennedy, CB R.W. McQuarters, and S Jon McGraw; drafted CB Stanley Wilson.  Subtracted Brock Marion and Chris Cash.

2006: Drafted S Daniel Bullocks and signed CB Jamar Fletcher.  Subtracted Andre Goodman, R.W. McQuarters, Bracey Walker, and Vernon Fox.

2007: Drafted S Gerald Alexander, CB A.J. Davis, and CB Ramzee Robinson; signed CB Travis Fisher.  Subtracted Dre Bly, Terry Holt, Jamar Fletcher, and Jon McGraw.

2008: Traded for CB Leigh Bodden, and signed S Dwight Smith, S Kalvin Person, and CB Brian Kelly.  Subtracted Fernando Bryant, Kennoy Kennedy, and Stanley Wilson . . . and Brian Kelly.

2009: Drafted S Louis Delmas, and signed CB Philip Buchanon, CB/S Anthony Henry, CB Eric King, and S Marquand Manuel.  Subtracted Leigh Bodden, Travis Fisher, and Dwight Smith.

That is an extraordinary amount of roster churn.  Lest you think these are mostly bottom-feeders, I made sure not to mention any player that didn't play at least 10 games in a season for the Lions.  If you look closely, the Lions brought in two or more new starters in the backfield almost every single year since Millen took over.  There was absolutely zero consistency.  Outside of Dre' Bly and Fernando Bryant, I don't think any player on this list started more than two consecutive years . . . and thanks to injuries, Bly and Bryant were almost never on the field at the same time in four seasons!

Unfortunately, it looks like this year's overhaul is D.O.A.  After jettisoning most of the depth chart at cornerback, the Lions traded Jon Kitna to Dallas for Anthony Henry, signed Philip Buchanon from Tampa Bay, and signed Titans nickel/dime guy Eric King.  The Lions then drafted Louis Delmas in the second round to make a very talented young trio of Daniel Bullocks and Gerald Alexander.  Veterans Kalvin Pearson and Stu Schweigart made for solid depth.  Then, oddly, the Lions added journeyman safety Marquand Manuel . . . it seemed to make no sense.  Wasn't there already a logjam at safety?  Bullocks should be pencilled in next to Delmas, Alexander is allegedly healthy, Pearson is an adequate SS, and Schweigart is a talented enigma . . . where would Manuel fit?  Even if Pearson's too limited to play in Schwartz/Cunningham's symmetrical defense,  and Schwiegart is strictly depth, shouldn't Manuel be trapped firmly beneath Bullocks and Alexander?

Apparently not.  According to Tom Kowalski, Bullocks regressed badly throughout the season, "missed even more time during this off-season" (?!?), and is "way behind the rest of the veterans".  This is dismaying, to say the least.  If Bullocks is not only not reminding people of 2006, but way behind guys like Manuel, Pearson, and Schweigart?  He'll honestly have a fight to make the team.  In fact, he almost surely will, because Killer then went and penned another major bummer of an article . . .

If Henry slides back to safety, that means that he, Alexander, Bullocks, Manuel, Pearson, and Schweigart are all fighting for one starting spot, and maybe two reserve positions.  Pearson, the most obvious cut, is a special teams ace, so maybe not.  Schweigart's a local-ish product and a fan favorite, but unless he returns to his '05 form, I don't see him escaping the axe.  That leaves Henry and Alexander as the most likely prospects to start next to Delmas, with the loser of that battle fighting Manuel and Bullocks for the third-safety spot.  That's a nice mix of youth, talent, experience, skill, and depth at the two safety spots, then.  But, what about the corners?

Oh my stars and garters.

If Henry slides back to safety, the #1 corner is Philip Buchanon.  My take on him at the time of the signing included a fair bit of optimism--as a young veteran, he possessed all the talent in the world--tempered with a good bit of realism: his production in Tampa made him a legit NFL starter, but little more.  There's no doubt that at his best, in a man-to-man scheme, he'd be a top 20, top 15 corner in this league.  However, he's never consistently played at his best, and he's always had a bit of at attitude problem, whining his way out of first Oakland, and then Houston.  That appeared to be a non-issue for the past two seasons, but attitude-problem leopards seldom change their spots.  Combine that factor with the uncertainty that is evaluating a cornerback in the Tampa Two, and you have a complete mystery as your #1 corner.

The #2 at that point would be either Eric King, or Keith Smith.  King was a sort of Plan C for the Lions.  It had been noted, almost from the day Schwartz took over, that Titans nickel corner/return specialist Chris Carr would be an ideal fit, and a priority target.  When the Lions feared missing out on Carr, they signed Eric King as insurance--another Titans corner, and also a nickel back, depending on what you read.  Titans HC Jeff Fisher:

"He played real well for us as a special teamer, he played corner for us at times and was a nickel back. He's a tough guy and a good locker room guy and a good person. Those are the kinds of players you want on your team. Eric will be successful there with whatever they ask him to do. Eric, coming in, can get the job done as a starter if that's what Jim wants to do."

I kind of find it difficult to believe that the Titans had two young corners that were good enough to start for other teams on their bench, so I kind of find it difficult to believe that the Lions are going to be okay if they're starting this King guy and Philip Buchanon at corner when toe meets leather in New Orleans.  Then there's Keith Smith, 2004 draftee who flashed some promise initially, and then languished under Marinelli.  I am consistently advised that Smith is for real, has great talent, and was simply ruined by bad coaching.  Be that as it may, ruined by bad coaching is ruined by bad coaching, and I am taking a firm believe-it-as-I see it with both of these guys.  After that is former Mr. Irrelevant, Ramzee Robinson, and depth guys Chris Roberson, Antonio Smith, and Dexter Wynn.

Right now, things are looking extremely shaky back there.  I like the safety pair of Delmas and Henry a lot--but I'd much rather have Henry be able to stay at corner with Buchanon, and Alexander or Manuel starting next to Delmas.  No matter how things shake out, though, there's no doubt that the Lions are still in desperate need of true skill and talent in the defensive backfield--and nothing will be able to change that until the snow melts in 2010.  Don't forget, this is when things look their best--heaven help the Lions' defense once injuries, fatigue, and/or underperformance cut down the Lions' DBs like weeds once more.

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