Neither Rain, Nor Snow, Nor Sleet . . . Preseason Gameday Mailbag!

It’s been far too long since the last mailbag, and since preseason is all about answering questions, I took some questions via email and Twitter, and I’m going to try to answer them. First up:

Casey, sent from his or her iPad--

The bengals have a relatively strong d line. Do you think we'll see how well staffords protection will be tomorrow, even with backups? Also I keep hearing sims is taking snaps. Any insight on that?

The quick answer is no; Jeff Backus will provide Stafford’s blindside protection this season, but he won’t be playing tonight. Per Dave Birkett’s projected two-deeps for tonight, Corey Hilliard will get the start at left tackle, with Johnny Culbreath backing him up. That having been said, the remainder of the offensive line is intact. Rob Sims was getting some snaps at left tackle purely out of a lack of bodies.

At the outset of camp, Hilliard and Ugoh couldn’t play because the new CBA hadn’t been ratified. You need two complete units to rotate “ones” and “twos,” so someone besides the only healthy left tackle had to play left tackle. The Sims experiment, or “necessity” as Schwartz called it, lasted just one practice.

To the greater point, "protection" is more than just the left tackle; only one of Stafford’s three shoulder separations came on a blindside hit. The others were during broken plays, not from a straight-up failure of the left tackle. Without Backus and Pettigrew, protection may indeed be shaky. Most of all, I’m looking for a great night from Stephen Peterman. He was outstanding in 2009, and awful in 2010, and his play will either be a great boon to Jahvid Best, or spell another season of “one yard and a cloud of dust” up the middle.

From @Jimbocity84 - If our patchwork O-Line lets stafford get rocked on the first series, does he see a second one?

Yes. As much as they want to protect him, subconsciously I think you want to see Stafford take a hit and bounce back up.

From @KrisWD40 - Could Rayner actually unseat Hanson as our kicker? He seems like a good option and he's got much more tred on the tires.

Rayner played well enough last year to start somewhere this year, and I’d love to see him take over whenever Hanson is done. But Hanson’s one of the best kickers of all time, and he hasn’t lost much off his leg or his accuracy. Two years ago, he had the best season a kicker’s ever had, on worst team of all time. If nothing else, Hanson deserves to stick around for the playoff run. Who knows? Maybe Rayner waits around for the gig to open up.

From @anthonytimlin - Who should we be keeping our eye on outside of the starters?

I kinda-sorta answered this yesterday:

The Lions’ strongest unit is quarterback; while I hope we’ll see at least two series from Matthew Stafford, I’d also like to see Drew Stanton in the whole second half. I doubt Shaun Hill will be interested in re-upping as a long-term backup, so the Lions have to find out if Drew Stanton is capable of taking his place. Elsewhere offensively, I’m hoping to get a long, long look at Johnny Culbreath at LT, and Derrick Williams at WR. Don’t think I won’t be watching the tailback situation with interest, too; I expect Harrison to get a lot of work.

On the defensive side, I hope to see very little Ndamukong Suh. I want Sammie Hill, Andre Fluellen, and Quinn Pitcock in and causing havoc. I want a BIG dose of The Great Willie Young. I hope to see the starting linebacker trio in for as many snaps as possible. I hope to see a lot of Aaron Berry working against A.J. Green. I want Amari Spievey in there as much as possible, too; I’m convinced that more reps will help him develop quickly into a force.

Berry likely won’t play, so instead I’ll just say “the cornerbacks.” To specify a little more on the tailbacks, I want to see the Jahvid Best we saw last preseason, then a 50/50 mix of Aaron Brown and Jerome Harrsion.

From @AdamantiumAC - Do you think Harrison is capable of moving to HB2 on the depth chart, even with a healthy Morris? (FTR, I do)

Honestly, they’re pretty similar backs. Harrison isn’t nearly as young as everyone seems to think, and Morris has proven himself a very solid #2 for two years running (pun intended). I could see it, but I don’t think it’ll affect the bottom line that much. Neither is Leshoure, so neither will really replace him. It’s going to be up to Best to prove he can be that every-down back.

From @Dustin_aka_D - Our offense is going to need a nickname soon. I don't want any rehashing of "great Lakes offense" or "silver stretch" either

Eh. I'm a fan of nicknames, but they have to be organic. Schwartz picking one from a contest isn’t the same as an actual nickname. “Megatron” was Roy Williams’ honest attempt at describing Calvin Johnson’s ridiculous abilities, and it stuck. Since the Lions’ offense isn’t unique systematically, it’s more about execution and the players. If a nickname for the offense is in the offing, it’ll become apparent during play.

From @johnweeast - Which RB's you have them keeping right now? and WR?

Yikes. I often avoid roster projections, because I'm often wrong. I thought John Wendling had only the most extreme long shot to make last year’s roster, and he made the first 53 in style. Best and Morris have roster spots, and after that it’s up for grabs. Aaron Brown will likely have tonight to prove he’s worth keeping around. If he can’t, Harrison likely gets the third spot—though if they need to keep six wideouts, Harrison may have to fight Felton for that spot. I DO think Derrick Williams makes it, one way or another. One last thing: the “final 53” is anything but; the last few spots will still churn like crazy after other teams release useful players.

From @Dustin_aka_D - do you think the lions will try anything resembling the old Chicago 46 this year on defense?Seems like we have players for it

A: No. B. My gosh, you’re right, they totally do. Check this out:

The NT is a two-gap tackle; think Sammie Hill and/or Corey Willams there. On either side, Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh each directly over a guard, holding the B gaps down. KVB rotating with Lo-Jack at the DE spot. Avril and Levy/Durant at the two upfront LB spots, with Tulloch and Delmas as the back two (Delmas would play the “46” role). Amari Spievey would play centerfield, and Chris Houston and Eric Wright would be in charge of preventinging all pass catching.

The first little bit sounded really great, but by the end you got to see why the 46 just isn’t used much: modern precision short-range passing offenses would just carve this up, unless you did a LOT of zone blitzing—and what’s the point of putting eight in the box and bringing everyone if you don’t bring everyone? As a change-of-pace run-stopping look, I love it. As an occasional blitzing front, why not? But ultimately, I’m not sure it makes the DL enough more effective to make up for how dramatically you’d be exposing a secondary with question marks.

Finally, I want to share with you an email from Bob R. He responded to the Mikel Leshoure piece with some intense memories:

I am fifty three years old and I remember watching a game involving the NY Jets back in the 70's. In this particular game Emerson Boozer, I believe it was, ruptured his Achilles. Back then they didn't have the "in stadium" medical facilities they do now so they helped him off the field to the bench where the team doctors examined what appeared, to the commentators, to be his Achilles region. As the cameras kept cutting back to Boozer on the bench we could clearly see he was sobbing...and not from the pain. Which lead the "Color Man", a former player, to somberly intone, " If this is an Achilles Tendon, then we have just seen Emerson's last play. His career is over." And it was.

So back in the seventies an Achilles rupture was a football players death sentence.

I experienced this first hand when my father back in the 70's ruptured a disc in the lumbar region of his spine. "L5" to be specific. The surgery he endured left him with two vertebra fused together, which limits his movement and causes pain to this day, and left him with a ten inch scar down the center of his back. He spent a week in the hospital after surgery and then two more weeks flat on his back at home in a great deal of pain.

In 1993 I had the pleasure of enduring the same injury to my L5. But the difference in my experience versus his was like night and day.

I went into the hospital at 8am, had surgery at 11:30am and was walking down the hall of my ward by three that afternoon. The scar from my surgery is two inches long and I was back at work , pain free, in seven days.

Now, I know we're talking about apples and oranges when it comes to the demands Mikel's body will require, as opposed to mine. But I think it's safe to say that had Emerson Boozer's injury occurred now, he most certainly would have played again.

Like yours, my heart goes out to him and his family as they face the beginning of the long road back.

All this is to say, I think your right. I think Leshoure has an excellent chance to be a top RB in this league for years to come.

What can I possibly add to that? Leshoure’s injury is a “gut punch” to him, his family, Jim Schwartz, and the franchise—but it isn’t a death sentence. Orthopedic surgery and treatment have advanced tremendously in the past few decades—and NFL stars aren’t getting the same therapy  that weekend warriors are. Josh at Roar of the Lions posted how his own shoulder rehab contrasts with what’s known about Matthew Stafford’s regimen; the difference is astonishing.

To wrap this all up, I’m glad to say I’ll be at the game tonight; please follow @lionsinwinter on Twitter for my real-time updates. I hope whatever TV you’re watching isn’t too tape-delayed—and no matter what, GO LIONS!

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Neither Rain nor Snow nor sleet . . . Post-Draft Mailbag!

Two weeks after the NFL draft, we’ve had some time to digest, to mull, to ruminate . . . and now, I’ll take some time to postulate, regurgitate, and bloviate.  First, two weeks hence, the annual NFL Draft “silly season” seems like a bad nightmare.  People were talking about the Lions dealing for Albert Haynesworth, and the Browns moving up for Sam Bradford, like actual things that might actually happen.  How ridiculous does that seem now?

I've always used this rule of thumb: whatever the "consensus" is two weeks before the draft is most likely what will happen. Therefore:

The Rams will rectify their smoking crater at quarterback, and draft Sam Bradford.

The Lions, despite clearly wanting to trade down, won't have a partner. They'll happily take Ndamukong Suh, they just won't be happy about his contract.

The Buccaneers will giddily take whichever of the DTs makes it out of the top 3.

The Redskins will draft Chris Samuels' eventual replacement, and Jon Jansen's next temporary replacement, at 1.4--either Okung or Williams, whomever they fancy.

The Chiefs will either continue rebuilding their incredible offensive line of the past decade with a left tackle, or address their odious secondary with Eric Berry.

Yeah, pretty much.

I’ve gotten some nice email in the aftermath of the draft, so I figured I’d answer the burning questions while they’re still . . . uh, burning.  First up, Beau asks:

I'm one of those lions fans who was on the not so fired up side of the Best pick. After watching some highlight film I'm trying to have a change of heart. Best seems to have great speed and vision and seems to give 110% every time he touches the ball, but he's just so dang small. I could he him catching a screen or bootleg or even kick returning but an every down between the tackles back??? I'm not so sure. What are your thoughts on Best? How will he be used??

First of all, Jahvid is listed at 5’-10”, 199.  Barry Sanders was generously listed at 5’-8”, 180 [UPDATE: several commenters correctly have cried foul: Barry measured 5'-7 5/8", 203 pounds at the 1989 combine].  Even if Best didn’t have ideal size for an NFL speed back, which he does, I’ve never believed in the generally accepted truism that small backs are injury-prone.  Warrick Dunn spent over a decade running hard between the tackles and rarely got hurt, while big, powerful backs like Brandon Jacobs and Stephen Davis have struggled mightily with injuries.

Kevin Smith is theoretically on track to be completely healthy by the start of the season, but “completely healthy” and “peak form” are two different things.  Silent Bob brings a lunchpail mentality to his job, and he’s been rehabbing hard—but you can’t blow three knee ligaments to shreds at the tail end of one season, and be at the top of your game by the start of the next.  Smith will have a role to play, and an important one—but right now Best is the lead dog, and will be until someone takes that collar from him.

I don’t think Best will get 30 carries a game, but only because that’s not really the way the NFL works anymore.  I could see Best getting 15-25 carries, while Smith gets 5-15 depending on his health, effectiveness, and the game plan.  I could also see the two of them on the field at the same time—and no, not with Smith at fullback.

The next email comes from Daniel, who was completely stoked about the draft:

I was reading some of the latest posts on your site, and obviously saw your writings about the draft. On that point, this is the best I have felt coming out of the draft weekend EVER . . . . These six selections, in addition to our trades, make for a truly excellent draft. It has to be in the running for best in the entire NFL. Here's to the Lions in 2010! RESTORE THE ROAR!!!

I didn't quote the whole email; Daniel (rather effectively) broke down every single pick, and came up with much love for every one of them.  I, honestly, have been more excited about a Lions draft; I was a huge Barry Sanders fan when he was in college; in like second grade I was such an Oklahoma State Cowboy booster I made T. Boone Pickens blush.  When he came to the Lions it was like a decade of unbridled glee.

I had a similar level of stoked-ness after the 2003 draft: Charles Rogers, a kid I went to State with, a dude I’d hung out with, and a phenomenally talented weapon that would be the Marvin Harrison to Joey Harrington’s Peyton Manning.  Boss Bailey, the Next Derrick Brooks; Cory Redding, Shaun Rogers’ former linemate; Artose Pinner, the SEC offensive player of the year, Torry Holt’s little brother, to finally help nail down the secondary . . . I was probably more thrilled after that draft than this one.

Part of it is just my age: at twenty-eight, and a rabid draftnik for the balance, I know that half these guys are going to wash out.  At this time in 2020, Tim Toone could be announcing his retirement after ten-year run as one of the NFL’s best possession receivers, and Ndamukong Suh could be yet another in a line of DL hype balloons long burst: Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, DeWayne Robertson, Chris Long . . .

I’m not saying that either of those things will happen, or are even likely.  I’m just saying, it’s almost impossible for all six of these players to become significant contributors to the team; it just doesn't happen that way.

Don't get me wrong, I AM excited about this draft, and I DO think the Lions did exceptionally well.  But there are too many questions about Spievey and Fox, and too few picks after Suh and Best, for me to be running naked through the streets about what an incredible, unbelievable, no-doubt-about-it-we-got-six-future-starters draft this was. 

The next question actually comes from the newest Lions blogger, Joe Dexter.  Joe’s not new to Detroit sports blogging—check out Motor City Bengals for some of his past work—but he’s now on the masthead at the SideLion Report!  Via Twitter, Joe asked:

Was there any mind boggling picks that didn't make sense to you considering players still available and team needs?

The Jets' entire draft! Of course, I was infuriated by the Jets snaring Kyle Wilson; a perfect fit for the Lions, and an salve for all of their cornerback wounds.  The Jets already have Darrell Revis and Antonio Cromartie, so either Cro or Wilson will platooning, or they took the most complete corner in the draft to be their nickel guy.  Fellas, I don’t know if you were paying attention, but you got to the AFC Championship game on the strength of your defense, and your beleaguered rookie quarterback won’t even get to use his best weapon until five weeks into the season.

They made up for it a bit with OT/OG Vladimir Ducasse, though he’s a project and they needed an impact player.  But then, Joe McKnight?  With Tomlinson and Greene already in the fold?  Why didn’t they  just hang on to Leon Washington, who’s the same player, only better?

The Chargers letting Tomlinson go, then trading way up for Ryan Mathews, then totally failing to address the interior line was mind-boggling.  Look at how both Tomlinson’s and Sproles’s per-carry numbers fell off the face of the Earth last year, even as Rivers played well and Vincent Jackson finally had that breakout season.  The holes just weren’t there, and they won’t be there for Mathews either.

I have no idea what the Bills are going to do with C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, no quarterback, no offensive line, and a good 4-3 defense's talent playing in a 3-4 alignment.  The Bills then reached for the DT they need but don’t have in the second round . . . we’ve seen how well reaching for rookies in the second round, because they fit your new defensive scheme, works.  This is going to be a total disassembly-and-reassembly by Gailey, and I don’t think anyone believes he’s that kind of a franchise architect.

Jermaine Gresham's a tremendous prospect—but the Bengals' OC, Bob Bratkowski, has absolutely no use for him.  No Bengals TE has caught more than 31 balls since Bratkowski took over signal-calling duties, so what they’re going to do with a pure pass-catching tight end, I don’t know.

Finally, Dustin (@Dustin_aka_D on Twitter) asked:

do you think any of the Millen era coaches could win with the new front office? Were there good coaches in bad situations?

Marty Mornhinweg, many felt at the time, was an up-and-coming young QB coach, on track to become an excellent offensive coordinator, and maybe someday even a head coach—when the Lions hired him as a head coach.  He landed as an offensive assistant in Philly, and slowly moved his way up the ranks to offensive coordinator.  If Kevin Kolb explodes in 2010, Marty Mornhinweg is going to be a hot candidate in 2011 or 2012.

Clearly, however, he was nowhere near ready for the top job back in 2001, and some of his mistakes—like opening traning camp by aping Mike Holmgren’s dramatic Harley ride—were borne of that inexperience.  Since he was only ever a placeholder for Steve Mariucci, I don’t think Mornhinweg could possibly have been a long-term success here at the time . . . but I do think he’ll be either an excellent OC, or a reasonably good head coach, at some point in his career.

Steve Mariucci was an excellent coach, and he absolutely got railroaded here.  His performance was handcuffed to Joey Harrington’s, though, and it’s clear that he had no regard whatsoever for Joey.  You could see, through Mooch’s managing of Harrington and Jeff Garcia, that he thought plugging in Garcia would provide an immediate upgrade, obvious to all—unfortunately, Garcia was hurt, and wasn't that great to begin with.

Ultimately, I think Mooch was a poor fit.  His NFL head coaching success came at San Francisco, at the tail end of the great dynasty.  Everything about the organization dripped class and excellence, and the roster was full of savvy veterans who’d spent their entire careers in the same system Mariucci was coaching.  In Detroit, Mooch did all the little things really, really well . . . but he was given a roster of total greenhorns who had no idea how to play professional football.  The Lions needed a forceful leader and a teaching coach, not a polished professional who trusted his players to be the same.

If *this* front office had hired Mooch?  I think it would have worked.  Look how the front office has gone out and gotten guys like KVB and Burleson, players who were clearly picks of the coaching staff.  Look how they’ve dramatically cleaned house, and addressed obvious needs with right-price players.

There’ve been no “Ooh, shiny!” picks like Boss Bailey—where a pressing need was “addressed” by handing the starting job to the prospect with the best combine numbers.  Further, there’s been no pressure to play the players that were “management picks”.  Note that when Derrick Williams made the least of his opportunities in training camp, he wasn’t promoted to the starting lineup midseason, with a grumpy “no comment” from Schwartz.

Going forward, if Mooch could take over a franchise where the WCO is in place, where he could either sign or draft his starting quarterback, and the front office is both competent and fully behind him, he could make a glorious return.  However, I think he’s come to realize that he’s pretty damned good at this TV analyst thing—and his wife and children, who always preferred life on the Left Coast, are happier this way.  I can’t fault the guy for making that decision.

Rod Marinelli?  I’m told he’s a great defensive line coach.

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,nfl draft,steve mariucci,rod marinelli,marty mornhinweg,jahvid best

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Neither Rain, Nor Snow, Nor Sleet . . . Mailbag!

It’s been a while since we’ve had a good solid Mailbag post, but the email’s been piling up, and it’s time.  First, from Dan:

Supposing we take Suh in the first round, who do you think we look at in the second and third? I would love to get Best in the second, but I feel we really need a cornerback. Good corners can generally be drafted in the top two rounds, after that there is usually a significant drop-off. This is especially true in this draft. Moreover, I think there is better depth at RB in the third and fourth rounds, as opposed to the cornerback position. I know we are looking at BPA, but it only makes sense to take a hard look at corners in the second, and hope for a solid running back in the third.

First, I agree completely that corner is a top need. With the trade for Corey Williams, and the presumed (in real life and in your scenario) drafting of Ndamukong Suh, cornerback is actually the top need.  Further, you’ve correctly assessed the field at tailback: after Spiller and Best, the next three or four best runningbacks are of the size/power variety; that’s not what the Lions are looking for.

In the second round, I’ve been hoping that Boise State’s Kyle Wilson will be there, but his stock has been rising so high, that’s no longer realistic.  He’s such a perfect fit for what the Lions want to do: he’s a smooth athlete, very quick, more than fast enough, and absolutely loves to jam and press and hit.  He’s be a perfect fit for the smart, tough, talented defense the Lions are building.

The Lions are bringing in Florida State CB Patrick Robinson, another late-first/early-second-type.  Robinson is a very quick, fluid athlete who didn’t quite meet the elite expectations he set in his sophomore year.  He has the physical ability to blanket people, and plays with high effort, but I wonder if he’ll be as physical at the line.  Has a really good knack for breaking up passes, though, and would be our most talented corner by a longshot.

If the Lions do go RB in the second, keep an eye on Kentucky CB Trevard Lindley.  He was projected as a second-rounder last year by the NFL Draft Advisory Committee, but opted to stay in school.  Partly thanks to a high ankle sprain, his stock fell, instead of climbing into the first, as he’d hoped.  Lindley’s a natural man-to-man cover guy, tall, long, and with great ball skills.  Doesn’t have the elite speed of a Robinson, but could develop into an excellent cover corner.

Steve asks:

I've heard some rumors that we might trade our 2 for Washington's 4 and Haynesworth. Good idea? Assuming that Mayhew is able to talk the 'skins into buying up a reasonable amount of his contract, I'm all for it. I doubt it would happen but our Defense could end up with KVB, Fat Albert and PacMan next year. Thanks for all your hard work.

Okay, first: is Haynesworth available?  PFT’s take on the Redskins shopping Haynesworth, and whether or not they really are, is in harmony with what I’ve read between the lines.  Michael Schottey recently tweeted that KVB, and Haynesworth, would like to put the band back together in Detroit.  Schottey then reported that Haynesworth’s interest in the Lions might be reciprocal.

I've said it many times before: when teams switch systems, they shed pieces that don't fit, and Albert Haynesworth does not fit as a 3-4 space eater.  He’s like a Super Suh, a prototypical 4-3 one-gap pass-rushing DT scaled up to enormous proportions; it’s why he commanded a $100M contract in the first place.

Oh, right, that contract.  With the Redskins just having paid out a $21M roster bonus, the remainder of Haynesworth’s contract is a very managable $16M over the next three seasons, with another huge bonus after that (which would force a restructure or release).  The ‘Skins would likely want some compensation for that $21M bonus, but Haynesworth’s mind-boggling contract is really pretty manageable now.

The issue, for me, is motivation.  Haynesworth completely checked out last season, just as many predicted he would.  He turned it “on” for two years, got paid, and turned it “off”.  KVB or no, Schwartz familiarity or no, the Lions would have to be damned sure that bringing in Haynesworth wouldn’t torpedo everything they’ve built up to this point . . . and if I were the Lions, I don’t think I could be damned sure.

Scott asks:

Mr Inwinter:

Yeah, this still cracks me up every time.

Question: Why do none of the 4 million O-line scenarios being floated include Cherilus moving inside to guard? Dude is a 6 out of 10 RT on his best day, but has the mass to play inside and, one would hope, something left of the talent and desire that made him a first round pick.

I think they should trade down if they do not think any of the LTs are worth the pick. Otherwise, take Okung, play him or Backus at RT and move Gos the Not So Great or Terrible inside.

Well first of all, Gosder Cherilus stands 6'-7" tall, and weighs 325 pounds.  That’s big for a tackle; it’s elephantine for a guard.  At that height, interior linemen impede the quarterback’s vision into the passing lanes, especially for short slants and hooks.  It’s what made Raiola the perfect WCO center; at only 6’-0”, the quarterback can always see the interior routes the offense depends on.

Secondly, Cherilus would immediately be at a leverage disadvantage against DTs who weigh about as much but are four inches shorter.  Trying to get lower than someone whose shoulders are his belly would be futile.  Rod Marinelli would wince at his pad level.  Moreover, guards have to be able to pull.  Cherilus could probably win one-on-ones “in a phone booth”, as they say, but he’s still struggling to consistently drop his hips and scooch side-to-side; I don’t see him taking naturally to running free in space to take out guys in the second level.

Finally, Stephen Peterman has been playing very well at right guard, so the Lions would either have to displace him over to left, or relegate new signee Rob Sims to the bench.  No, Gosder the Gozerian is a pure right tackle, and when he’s dialed in he’s a very very good one.  His limitations are more mental than physical—and according to DetroitLions.com’s Tara Ryan, Cherilus may finally be “getting it”:

I grew up. I’m trying to do all of the little things right. I’m taking yoga classes and I show up here and do some extra stretches.  I changed the way I eat and the way I do certain things because at the end of the day if you want to do these things, right now is the time.

I can only hope this is true—and if it is, the Lions are going to be set at right tackle for years to come.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,gosder cherilus,kyle wilson,albert haynesworth,washington redskins,nfl draft

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Neither Rain, nor Snow, Nor Sleet . . . nor 2-11

It seems bizarre that with so many questions already answered about the 2009 Lions, there’s still so much left to discuss; the mailbox was flooded with excellent inquiries.  To work, then?  To work.  From Scott:

Mr. Inwinter:

Okay that right there is quality.  Very well done, sir.

Had a thought for you- there's been a lot of talk of the Lions being "Stafford's Team" after the Browns game and even though I watched the "miked up" about ten times, I dismissed most of it as hype. On the other hand, I'm relieved that Stafford's not playing this week because it frees me to ignore the game entirely and watch decent teams. So maybe the fact that I'm not even going to watch, and I can't be alone here, means the Lions are Stafford's team even moreso than the hype would indicate.

This is something that I've felt, too--and the statistics bear this out. Not only is Matthew Stafford the future of the franchise, he's the present.
Right now, the Lions’s chances to win any game are zero if he is not playing, and nonzero if he is.  I didn’t expect that to be true this season, but it is.  I can’t wait until Stafford gets back on the field, because these Culpepper games feel like preseason.  Scott also asked about the draft:

Btw, I haven't seen anyone predict this, but I think they go DE in round 1 in April followed by a roadgrading OG in round 2. Better to draft athletes in round one, and if it goes well, it'll rotate protection outside and help the middle. Adequate run-stuffers are usually available among FAs.

A large part of this will be determined by the talent on the board, and where the Lions pick.  The Lions could end up picking anywhere between 1st and 10th, depending on how other teams do—I think they’ll be somewhere in the 4th-6th slots, myself.  To me, there’s no question that both lines, and the defensive secondary need the most help.
Pass protecting OTs, and pass rushing DEs are the premier positions.  If there was a stud prospect at either position, and the Lions were drafting, say, 3rd, I could see it.  But the top OT prospect, from what I’ve seen, is Russel Okung—he’s an athlete and a technician, but (IMO) isn’t strong or bulky enough to step in and play at an elite level yet; he’ll be a project and that’s not what the Lions need.
I take exception with you on the DE/DT thing—and not because you’re wrong; adequate run-stuffers are often there to be had.  The issue is that the Lions want another Haynesworth-type, a natural 315+ world devourer who can singlehandedly collapse the pocket, shrug off double teams, eat running backs, and flush QBs to the sidelines.
Given that so many teams are switching to the 3-4, a he-beast like that is in demand more than ever.  Ndamukong Suh is the perfect fit; he and Sammie Hill could be giving people fits on every down for years.  Yes, the Lions would like a pass rusher too, but their needs are a little bit different . . .
From excellent commenter SomeChoi:

But here is my question: if we do draft defense, is there a place for tweeners such as Brian Orakpo in Gunther's D? Prototypical 4-3 DEs seemed to be rare in recent drafts.

It’s interesting that you ask that.  My understanding of the blueprint for the Lions defense is this: start with a Williams Wall-like DT pair.  A 330-pound NT, like Sammie Hill, and a 310+-pound UT, like Ndamukong Suh, would overwhelm opposing offensive lines.
Bracing them would be two 270-to-280-pound DEs who can rush the passer--but be big enough and strong enough to set a hard edge against the run.  This funnels runs and screens back into the middle—where Hill and Suh (or a Suh-like player) will stop them.
People questioned Schwartz’s sanity when he put Jared Devries in as a starter—and even more when he decried the “great loss” of Devries in camp—but he did so because DeVries was a perfect fit for what they wanted to do.
This is where the OLBs come in.  Since the DEs aren’t 260-pound Freeneyish terrors, both OLBs need to be able to blitz like crazy.  Of course, they can’t be total liabilities in coverage, either.  They’re looking for big athletes who can run and hit; ideally, we’re talking about two Julian Peterson-in-his-primes.
Gunther included the dwindling stock of defenders with size in his tackling tirade:

"I don't like it because the linebackers are getting smaller and they're putting all those coverage people on the field. The (Brian) Urlachers are tough to find,'' Cunningham said. "A lot of teams in the NFL are going to the 3-4 because of that.
"The linebackers that are coming out are the size of safeties: 6-foot and 220 pounds. You look at the Cincinnati Bengals' tackles and they're 6-7 and those linebackers can't even see where the back is half the time. There's a real problem on defense to find the right players and the right mix for you to compete in this league.

So there is your answer: a 250-pound pass rusher like Orakpo could come in and play, but only if he had a little more lateral agility and wouldn't mind being a full-time OLB. Don't forget, Avril fit that mold coming out of college, and they've bulked him up quite a bit. Of course, he's not doing very well . . .
SomeChoi also added:

I'm one of the few who agree with Killer - Lions are better served drafting offense. The defense was good enough to keep us competitive in most games and a decent offense would've won us perhaps 4 more games. But I'm particularly worried we'll lose Calvin if we don't help him realize his potential soon, if we didn't lose him already. Not to mention being fearful for Staff's life. And Mayhew better be losing sleep over whether Pettigrew becomes a playmaker. Otherwise, passing on Oher will haunt him forever.

I'd love to agree with this line of thought: after all, the Colts have been an amazing offense paired with a bad-to-middling defense for over a decade now, and they've been consistently elite.  But the Lions’ defense . . . you guys, it’s so bad.  It’s truly terrible.   No matter how good the offense gets, they won’t be able to consistently outscore what this defense is allowing.
When Matthew Stafford has played, the Lions have been at the bottom of the middle third of the league in scoring—but the defense has been allowing almost double that number of points!  No, the Lions have to at least patch the defensive dam before they can finish constructing their offense.
I received several emails to the effect of, “If not Suh, then who?”  Lopper chipped in his suggestion:

In my opinion, the next best guy to take has to be Berry. The examples of a safety impacting a defense are all over the NFL this year. The Steelers with and without Polamalu, and just yesterday when Delmas was out it was painful watching White and Pearson bouncing off tackles. It seems like big plays against is the biggest problem for the Lions, and a safety pairing of Delmas and Berry would be the best way to stop them from happening. I might even rather see them draft Berry over McCoy depending on how things shake out in the off season.

Time for my usual disclaimer: I watch practically zero non-Big Ten college football; I haven’t yet seen most of these SEC and Big 12 players in action.  In general, the idea of pairing Delmas with another monster safety is appealing.
However, the defense is really weak at the line of scrimmage.  Blowing, in consecutive years, a high second-round pick and a high first-round pick on safeties, thinking they’ll clean up everything the corners and front seven let through . . . well, it seems like putting the cart before the horse.
Further, for as much as everyone raves about Polamalu, Ed Reed, Bob Sanders, and the difference those guys make to their defense, none of those guys were drafted in the top five, or even top ten.  I was curious: over the past few years, what safeties have been drafted high at the top of the first—and have they worked out?
LaRon Landry was the sixth overall pick of 2007.  Michael Huff was seventh overall in 2006, Antrel Rolle was selected eighth in 2005 (as a corner), and the late Sean Taylor was fifth in 2004.  The Other Roy Williams was the eighth overall in 2002—can you believe he’s a seven-year vet?
. . . that completes the list of Top Ten safeties of the past 10 years.  Sean Taylor, a fifth overall pick, was the highest-drafted safety in that time—and was developing into one of the most dominating players in the league, before his untimely death.  But the rest of these guys were either definite disappointments, or are too young to evaluate right now.
I believe that Berry’s a really nice talent, and pairing him with Delmas would indeed be SO AWESOME--but really good safeties can be had in the second, third, and fourth rounds.  Elite linemen, however, are pretty much only available at the top of the draft.
Joe asked:

One of my biggest questions that the usual suspects of Lions' media types don't seem to cover is WHERE exactly are the weaknesses on this team. I know it's easy to throw everyone under the bus and just flatly state we lack talent, but are you able to see exactly where? If you only had ONE pick in the draft or could only acquire ONE free agent with which to upgrade this team and could only draft/sign based on position, which position do you think most needs a serious upgrade?

Whew.  I think the Lions’ biggest problem positions are the non-Mega wideouts, the offensive guards, the defensive line, and the cornerbacks.  Since, again, guards can be had in the second or third round—and, again, I believe the Lions have to have a defensive focus in this draft—I’d look to fix either the line or the corners.  Joe said:

Personally, I think their biggest problem seems to be a lack of any pass rush, exposing the secondary which often has receivers initially covered. However, even the league's best cover corner can't cover a WR for 10 seconds while the QB assesses the entire field without the slightest pressure. I think DE is the biggest weakness on this team. We can't even seem to get pressure with blitzes and often get burned early, forcing Gunther to back off and only send four.

That’s a very strong argument.  With the addition of an elite pass rusher—a 270-plus-pound three-down beast, not an Orakpo or Dumervil—it would “shorten the field” for the corners.  I’ve said before that Will James would be much better if he never had to cover a receiver more than ten yards downfield; if we had a monster pass rush it would minimize the number of times he’d have to.  Killer even said last season that if there were a Mario Williams at the top of the 2009 draft, the Lions would have taken him over Stafford.
Let me be clear: I agree with that. If we could forklift Mario Williams from the Texans to the Lions, he’d make all the difference in the world.  Unfortuantely, there’s no Mario Williams in this draft—but keep an eye on this guy if he comes out.  At 6’-4”, listed at 272 going into his senior year, Derrick Morgan might well show up for the combine as the three-down end the Lions are looking for.
However, if the Lions end up with either of the explosive “under” tackles—Suh or McCoy—it’ll make nearly as strong of an impact.  I don’t see anyone running on a three-tackle rotation of Grady Jackson, a blossoming Sammie Hill, and Suh or McCoy.  Further, Hill and (Suh || McCoy) would be an incredibly athletic inside pairing; both could collapse the pocket with strength, and pursue if the QB scrambles—similar to the dynamic we saw with Big Daddy and Big Baby, only younger and faster.
Finally, don't forget that the shortest path to the quarterback is up the middle; a player like (Suh || McCoy) could “shorten the field” the way a DE could, and also demand double-teams that would make it easier for our existing DEs.
So, if I could add just one player, it’d be either a monster, three-down, athletic, pass-rushing DE, or a monster, three-down, athletic, pass-rushing DT.
. . . that'll do it for this week's mailbag.  Thanks again for all the great submissions, folks!

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Neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet . . .

Hey folks, it’s Mailbag time again.  I’m going to get right to it with a great one from Scott T.:

I was watching SportsCenter tonight, and they cut to a preview segment of tonight's MNF game, with Matt Millen. For the first time, a raw emotion hit me as I listened to MM speak; loathing. I remember listening to Matt Millen, the color analyst, prior to his tenure with the Lions. My thoughts then were "he's pretty sharp, makes good points" etc, etc. Now that he has returned to that position in broadcasting, I am now POSITIVE, that he could make the same statements, prove the same points, and for me, I just want to turn the TV off, or change the channel. His words no longer are credible with me. To be honest, I haven't paid much attention to his return to broadcasting, and have never really listened until tonight. In my mind, and probably my own, Matt Millen, the NFL analyst, is now a joke, and I resent his being on TV passing his opinion on to national and even regional viewers.

This one is tough for me.  I’m always the first to defend Millen’s right to ply his trade—and like you, I enjoyed his analysis work the first time around.  I don’t think that his failure as the CEO of an NFL franchise disqualifies him from a career in broadcasting; certainly there are plenty of great players and coaches who would be terrible analysts, and plenty of mediocre players and coaches (Merrill Hoge) who are very sharp on-camera.

However, I experienced something very similar to what you're talking about a few weeks ago, when Carolina played Dallas on Monday Night Football.  After the game, the talking heads were all taking turns discussing Dallas’ situation, and Millen said “You know, someone who’s got to play better is Roy Williams.”  Within minutes of that admission, he said “You know who I’ve really been impressed with, is Demarcus Ware.”  All of a sudden, I felt an inexplicable rage: YOU DRAFTED ROY WILLIAMS!  YOU PASSED ON DEMARCUS WARE!  ROOOOOAAAAAR!

Bile rushed up my throat, veins popped out of my forehead, and my hands screwed themselves into murderous red claws.  It was a vicious, violent, Pavlovian reaction wholly beyond my control.  After the “Hulk Mad!” moment passed, I was astounded that I could get so worked up over such idle comments.  I’m sure that every NFL executive has dozens of players they wish they could have drafted, including ones they passed on in favor of another prospect they liked *this much* more.  Still, something about Millen making those statements flipped a switch in my brain that I didn’t know I had, especially not in regards to football analysis.

Once we get past the “credibility” angle, the main factor working against Millen is his job selection.  As smooth and insightful as he was in NFL booths, I think he looks awkward and out-of-place during his roundtable work on the MNF pregame/postgame shows.  Also, his college booth analysis, while not awful, lacks the insight of his understanding of the NFL—it’s someone who knows a lot about football in general “reacting” to what’s happening on the field, not an insider “guiding” you through what’s happening on the field.

Now our second question, from my boy Neil at Armchair Linebacker:

Ty, how long can I cry before I dehydrate myself?

Well, we know the human body is about 60% water. According to Wikipedia, symptoms of dehydration begin to set in after losing approximately 2% of the body's water volume, grow severe after 5-6%, and become fatal after a loss of 15%. Given a 200-pound adult male, and accounting for lost water via breathing, sweating, etc., you'd have to cry about five pounds of tears to experience severe dehydration--less depending on how much beer/whisky/turpentine/drain cleaner you've been drinking.

From commenter SomeChoi:

How do you get the energy to keep writing?

I know you're at least partially joking, but I'll answer you seriously: A) my inexplicable love for this team would have me writing on forums and Mlive and the Freep and the News anyway; this just gives all my Lions-y rambling a place to be focused, a place to live and thrive and grow and be useful.  B) I want to be there for other fans like me.  I want to give people a place where they can read and write about the Lions thoughtfully, intelligently, and without fear of mocking laughs or ignorant donkey brays.  I regularly tell commenters and emailers that their kind words give me the fuel to keep driving; I’m not lying when I say that. 

And now a more serious question, what precedent is there to expect Stafford's accuracy to improve? If missing too many wide-open receivers was his problem in college, can we really expect this to be a correctable problem?

First, you'd have to convince me that "missing wide-open receivers" was his problem.  Georgia folks have been constantly telling me that Stafford’s biggest problem at Georgia was actually his total lack of an offensive line . . . in my estimation, Stafford looks fine.  He throws with a lot of velocity, and I think it makes his less-on-target passes look more-not-on-target, if that makes any sense.  I mean, it only follows that receivers have more time to adjust to quails than to rockets. 

Part of this is just his lack of rapport with these wideouts; he spent most of the preseason and training camp running with the twos.  Johnson & Johnson were either starting or hurt throughout most of that time, and Dennis Northcutt missed the entire preseason.  It’s no wonder that they’re not sure where or when to expect his throws, and it’s no wonder that he’s not placing balls right where they need them.

In the second half of the Rams game, Stafford’s body language, throw velocity, ball placement, and facial expressions just screamed that he was trying to execute the offense SO WELL that the Lions couldn’t help but score.  He wasn’t working with his wideouts, he was trying to win despite them—of course, they weren’t doing him any favors either.  On the second-to-last drive, Stafford came to the sideline with a glowering I-can’t-believe-these-guys look on his face that spoke volumes about his opinion of his receivers’ efforts that day . . .

This is both a roster problem, and an experience problem. The Lions will have to bring in better non-Calvin wideouts, and Stafford will have to learn to work with what he’s got, instead of trying to impose his will on his teammates with overexecution.

And now, one from Lopper (which was later seconded by Matt):

Why is it that Killer and others always say that the Lions can't afford another high draft pick because they already have Calvin and Stafford with big contracts?

Well, the answer to this one is pretty depressing: since 2010 is almost certainly going to be an uncapped year, the salary cap actually has nothing to do with it.  It's that the Lions can't afford another Top 5 draft pick.  Like, in terms of money.  Yes, the Fords have a family fortune that we all imagine is effectively infinite.  However, the Lions as a business unit aren't nearly as profitable as they ought to be given their stadium and lease.

Being contractually obligated to rustle up millions every week for game checks to Stafford, Calvin, Backus, and the rest puts a big squeeze on the Lions’ cash flow.  Think about it: 40,000 tickets at their average $67/ticket is $2.68M cash coming in the door each week.  The Lions’ payroll obligations for 2009 are at $120M.  If that’s all paid out over 16 weeks in game checks, that’s $7.5M/wk.  Obviously, this is a MASSIVE oversimplification--but if the Lions are even close to operating from a week-to-week deficit, they’ll be minding their Ps and Qs this offseasons.

If they’re stuck with a Top 5 pick again, they’re probably going to be sideline sitters during this upcoming free agency period.  The focus will be on B- and C-level guys who can fill holes and play roles, instead of young veterans who’d start on a majority of teams in the NFL.  They certainly won't be backing up the Brinks truck to win the Anquan Boldin sweepstakes. On the other hand, if the Fords believe that they're one or two players away from competitiveness--and therefore, a full stadium--they might do as they've (unsuccessfully) done in the past, and spend money to try to make money.

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any questions?

We have more questions about this team than ever after this past week, so send them to me via email (thelionsinwinter@gmail.com), twitter (@lionsinwinter), or even Google Wave (also thelionsinwinter@gmail.com)!  You can also just reply to this thread. I'll do my dead-level best to get to the heart of the matter, and you'll see your name in lights here shortly.

By the way, season-ticket holders out there, use the following info to contact me about a cool potential opportunity . . .

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Neither rain nor snow nor sleet . . .

It’s (finally) mailbag time!  Most of the questions I received had to do with a very round peg that just might fill a very big hole in the Lions’ lineup.  I'll print David M, of NFLDraftBlogger.com's instance:

I saw that Ed Johnson of the Colts was released today. We need DT help and he's a decent DT that hasn't been playing up to standards and being lazy (the reason for release was listed as him being overweight at 315 pounds). He got his wake up call from the Colts, so do you think the Lions will attempt to sign and shape him up?

Johnson is an interesting case.  The 6’-2”, 296# DT was released from the Colts last year, after a traffic stop resulted in the discovery of marijuana in his car.  He was re-signed by the Colts seven months later--after, essentially, promising to be good.  However, he was released again last week.  When pressed for a reason why, Colts coach Jim Caldwell denied that it was a character issue, saying that it was a case of “overall production, or lack thereof”.

This is an interesting philosophical question for Lions fans. If Ed Johnson was truly cut only for performance, and not character, issues, then he's not just a "turd", and might be of use. Then again, if he was truly cut only for performance, he must have been terrible indeed; NFL teams don't release a guy midseason unless they're clearing up a roster spot for someone else. The quagmire was cleared up a few days ago when, Colts GM Bill Polian finally came clean:

“Jim Caldwell about three weeks ago called him in and essentially said to him, 'Ed, you have to pick it up – the production, the hustle, the effort and the ability to lose the weight has to be improved,''' Polian said Monday, adding that Caldwell told Johnson, “Otherwise, we're going to have to make a change.'''

So there you have it: Ed Johnson was indeed cut for being lazy.  His weight was a just manifestation of that lack of intensity.  The many Polian, and Caldwell-via-Polian, quotes in that article make it crystal clear: the coaches wanted nothing more to do with Johnson’s half-hearted effort.  This guy is like a fat Chuck Darby, without Darby’s motor; I don’t think that’s someone who can help the Lions.  Moreover, Sammie Hill, a player with a naturally huge frame and a lot of heart, should come back healthy next week, or shortly thereafter.

David also highlighted another free agent target who might be worth pursuing:

I saw through various media outlets that former starting safety for San Diego Clinton Hart was released. Why have we not heard about the Lions going after him? Are they really pleased with Marquand Manuel starting next to Delmas? I know Ko Simpson is here too, and I like him as a player, but it never hurts to bring in someone with starting experience.

I have to admit, I hadn't heard of Hart's release. Judging by the fan reaction, it looks as though the Associated Press’ take on it:

Coach Norv Turner said the Chargers were carrying an extra safety and felt younger players Steve Gregory and rookie Kevin Ellison "have come along and are ready to play."

is essentially correct.  The Chargers are trying to shake things up in general, and Hart's release (following several weeks of poor play) sent a message to the rest of the defense that nobody's job is safe.

As far as the Lions making a move to pick him up, I think you answered your own question. The Lions already have a starter they seem to like in Ko Simpson, and I'd expect him to come back healthy after the bye.  I have not been fond of Marquand Manuel's play, but he's been on the team--and in the system--for much of the offseason, and can play either safety spot.  That's another thing to remember: Schwartz doesn't use the typical "strong" and "free" safety roles; a traditional SS who's a liability in coverage has no place in this defense. According to Adam Caplan of Scout.com, that's exactly what Hart's problem has been: coverage.

I also got another very good question from commenter SomeChoi:

S Hill and L Cohen seem to be good DTs who will only get better. Yet, Killer talks about DT as a major need for next year. Am I just overvaluing those guys? I would think LT is a bigger need than DT (but both behind DE, CB, and S).

I think we as Lions fans need to be clear: after Megatron, Matt Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, Louis Delmas, and DeAndre Levy, just about everyone on the roster is a candidate to be replaced this offseason.

Of course, I would love for the Lions to get an elite left tackle--but the Lions' DT rotation, with Hill out, is Cohen, 36-year-old Grady Jackson, and 278-pound Turk McBride.  Understand that on a team with an established defensive line, Hill and Cohen would have each had to wait a year or two to get on the field--and instead, they're part of the starting rotation.

Likewise, the DEs are extremely thin: Avril is just starting to turn it back on after his injury, Dewayne White can't stay healthy, DeVries was going to START before going on IR, and his street-free-agent replacement, Jason Hunter, is also out. Six months ago, Jason Hunter was a special-teams standout for the Packers, who was then released.  Now, the Lions are eager for his return, so they can plug him back into the rotation? Yikes.

I've been ringing alarm bells all offseason long: the cornerback position is absolutely dire.  Henry is better suited to safety, Buchanon needs to pull his head out of his posterior, and there isn't another legitimate NFL starter on the roster.  Will James is a great story, but he's another weak #2/strong #3-type guy that could be a cog in an otherwise-excellent secondary, but he's no #1, not in a division full of excellent, strong-armed quarterbacks.

I could go on and on about the talent definciencies all over the roster--but I'll try to stick to your question.  Sammie Hill is still extremely raw; he doesn't yet know how to use that incredible build to its fullest. His technique, hand work, and use of leverage is simply not there yet. Once it is, though, his potential is limited only by his effort. If he reaches that potential, could be the Lions' nose tackle for years to come.  However, at this point he's just a big body--that helps, but only goes so far.

Landon Cohen has made absolutely unbelievable strides since the Lions took him in the 7th round of the 2008 draft, putting on about 35 pounds of pure muscle.  I bumped into him at the “Lions Uncaged!” event; he didn’t notice, but my clavicle was broken in three spots.  Still, he was a seventh-round draft pick just last year.  He BARELY saw the field--and all of the technique coaching he got last season was wiped out and rewritten with the opposite approach this summer.  If he continues to develop, he could indeed be a valuable rotational guy next to Hill.

This is kind of the thing: us Lions fans are so used to anyone who's even moderately decent starting; the notion of having both an excellent starter and a solid backup is disorienting.  I agree that Cohen and Hill are two excellent young prospects--but this defense needs to be built around the NEXT Grady Jackson, the next Albert Haynesworth, the next Pat Williams. If you have a chance to draft the kind of DT who stops people's running games cold all by himself, you don't pass on that guy because Landon Cohen is coming along pretty good.

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Mailbag: Scott linehan special edition

While working on this week’s mailbag, I came across this question from Jim, who frequents Mlive under the handle “draftpuke”:

Tell me something please......Am I nuts or did I witness some unusual stuff on offense yesterday for the Lions, at least as far as the the NFL goes, with all of the odd misdirections, motions, counters, etc,etc...It almost looked high school. Was what the Lions were running yesterday unusual? Or am I just not used to seeing creativity?

I became immediately and profoundly sidetracked. This is something I'd been noticing on film quite a bit: Linehan has indeed introduced a lot of very cool little wrinkles that nobody is really talking about. So, mailbag aside for the moment, the Curious Case of Scott Linehan:

This is the foundation of the offense: the I formation. Two wide receivers, split fairly wide; a tight end, a fullback, and a tailback. This couldn't be more vanilla, more old-school NFL. The first thing that you should notice is the very slight motion of the fullback, just a shuffle step to the strong side. This is one less step he'll have to take when leading the back to run that way--but it also signifies the defense which direction the backs plan to run. Note how the Falcons' linebackers immediately cheat to the strongside when they see the motion!

This particular play's execution isn't perfect--the DE bullrushes the TE (Heller) back into the running lane, forcing an adjustment and killing the play. You see the LG (Loper) pull right, and the C (Raiola) and RG (Peterman) try to drive their assignments left. You can see the open seam as the FB (Felton) leads through the hole . . .but the tailback is brought down by the DE before he can get there. This play, in terms of presnap look and blocking scheme, will set up the defense for the rest of the game.

Okay, same formation, the I. Felton is already lined up offset to the strong side. There is presnap motion, though; the flanker (Colbert) moves into the slot, next to the TE (Heller). At the snap, Heller runs a 15-yard curl, but Colbert crosses behind him to run a shallow drag across the field. Felton comes charging up behind them on a wheel route, and behind that, the tailback flares out to the sidline.

Note that shortly after the snap, we have a deep option (Heller), a clearing route (Colbert), a shorter option (Felton), and an outlet (Smith). I believe the intent here is to attack the SLB--he either needs to stay on the TE, or follow the WR; either way there's nobody there to tackle the fullback charging up from the backfield.

In this case, the SLB is actually manned up on the tailback and follows him out. The SS blitzes from the space this play attacks, leaving Heller wide open deep. The corner that was lined up tight to Colbert drops way back, since he no longer has safety help deep. The play works as designed, and Culpepper hits his primary option.

The Falcons MLB quickly diagnoses what's happening, but can't get there fast enough to make the play. Ideally, Culpepper would have recognized the coverage shift & blitzing safety, and hit Heller for the big gain--but you can't fault him for executing the play as designed.

Remember, this was out of an I-Formation. We started with plain vanilla, and we ended up with a three-route combination attacking one spot on the field.

This is the first snap Matt Stafford took in a professional football game. Note the formation: a single back, 2-TE set with both WRs split wide. Again, the presnap motion of Colbert tight to the line. Like the last play, the corner, who was pressing, backs off, and the safety shows blitz--but this time he backs off to squat in the zone the Lions attacked earlier.

One might expect that Matt Stafford's first snap, taken in a 2-TE set, would be a run--which is why Linehan calls for a play fake. The other WR (can't see who) runs a clear-out go route, taking the corner with him. The tailback hustles out to the flat, drawing the OLB to cover him. Colbert, having motioned into the right slot, runs a post route that attacks the space in between the drawn-up OLB and the cleared-out CB. He's wide filthy open. Stafford guns it right to him, and he drops it.

Okay, again: Stone Age 2-TE formation. One presnap motion and one play fake sets up a three-level route combination, giving the rookie QB one, wide filthy open, read to make--oh, and 2 TEs stay in to block and keep him clean.

This is getting really, really good.

Okay, for the first time in the breakdown, we see a 3-WR set. Linehan uses very few multi-WR sets, especially given the current trends in football, typically only in passing situations like this 1st-and-10.

At the snap, the runningback, quarterback, and entire offensive line flow to the weak (short) side of the field. Stafford hands off, and the tailback--OH NO WAIT IT'S A NAKED BOOTLEG! This is an eleven-man effort. Watch the run blocking by the OL, the tailback (Irvin?) "running the ball" after the fake, and, especially, the snow job by the Heller on the side away from the ball.

Heller run blocks left, then spins on his heels and runs to the flat. The Y (slot) reciever runs in towards the middle, like he's going to block (?) but then turns upfield. We can't see where he goes after that, or what the Z reciever does . . . but I'd be willing to bet they set up a three-level route combination. Stafford sells the fake well, sees Heller open, and gets it to him. Good recognition by the linebackers holds the gain to just a few yards--but you see Linehan working here. Moreover, you see how the run/pass deception is something he's coaching the whole unit to sell.

Okay, now we see this offense about as wide open as it gets. In 2nd- and 3rd-and-long situations, Linehan typically puts Stafford in the shotgun, usually with a single back, 3-WR set. If the situation is extreme (3rd-and-13, or two-minute offense), Linehan prefers to swap the TE for a second RB, not a fourth WR.

Watch Stafford as they line up. He's calling out the coverage, directing traffic--he looks comfortable, doesn't he? Well, there's a reason for that: this is just like the offense he ran at Georgia. I-Form and Pro Set in running situations, shotgun/multi-WR in passing situations, almost as a rule. On this 2nd-and-8, he feels right at home.

First off, note that he fakes the draw. You can tell from the haste with which it's executed that Stafford's more worried about getting set up and getting rid of the ball. But, the defense is going to see that fake; the Lions might--or might not--run a draw from this formation at this down and distance. Again, setting up the D is a huge part of this offense.

The limits of the TV feed prevent me from analyzing the routes, but Stafford completely aces this throw, squeezing it between two defenders on the sideline--to Colbert, who thankfully catches it. Nothing too fancy here, just great execution.

Okay, one more from the Falcons game. See the typical Offset I, 2-WR formation, right? Yeah, and then the tailback (Irvin) motions out wide, outside of the X reciever. Now Irvin is the X, the previous X is the Y, and the fullback's offset solo set makes for the oddest singleback backfield I've ever seen. The defense all kind of looks around, like "What?" Then, the CB shifts over to cover Irvin, the safety comes up to cover the slot WR, and LBs all drop into short zones.

I think the CB-RB adjustment is what the Lions were looking to force; pull the cover corner off the WR, and leave a hopelessly outmatched LB assigned to him instead. However, the Falcons adjust well: instead of single coverage against an OLB, the WR is covered over the top by the safety, and the OLB gets great depth underneath. Stafford fails to recognize that he does't have the matchup he's looking for, and pulls the trigger. Winborn, the OLB, is sitting right on it.

Okay, so this one didn't turn out so hot. But, you see how Linehan starts with plain Vanilla, with a presnap motion makes it French Vanilla, and by spooning on rich, luscious route combinations, we end up with a truly exceptional sundae. It's not a Mike Martz Spumoni Banana Split with sprinkles on top and a sparkler in it--but Linehan is doing really impressive, powerful stuff that both makes it easy on Stafford and hard on opposing defenses.

. . . that was the preseason, where Linehan was keeping all his good stuff under wraps.

Now, let's look at the first four plays of the second drive against the Saints:

Okay, this is a single-back, 2-TE set. Both TEs are lined up tight against the right side of the line. The Flanker, Megatron, is lined up tight to the outside of the TEs. This gives the look of a trips bunch, but the "trips" are 2/3rds tight ends. The furthest outside of the TEs, Fitzsimmons, motions out wide to that side. Now Fitzsimmons is the Z, Johnson is the X, and Megatron is the Y.

The defense now has a massive dilemma on their hands. They're going to blitz both outside linebackers, and leave the MLB to play shallow centerfield. The CB takes the bait, manning up on Casey Fitzsimmons. The middle linebacker is now the only one responsible for covering both Heller and Megatron. After the snap, you can almost hear him going "Uhm, uh, uhm, uh" as he tries to figure out what on Earth to do. He wisely gives chase to Megatron--and after Stafford hits Megatron in stride, he even gets close enough to tackling Megatron to be easily shrugged off by the great wideout.

I believe this was the exact same play that was called back by the "Phantom Chop Block" in the Vikings game. It worked just as well then, too.

It's tough to tell, thanks to the SUPER WOW FOX GRAFFIX, but initially the set is a single back, 3-WR set--only with a TE lined up as the Y (slot) reciever on the short (right) side of the field. He then motions left to the end of the line, and puts a hand down, lining up as the TE that he is. The new Z steps back off of the line of scrimmage, avoiding an illegal-formation penalty. Now, we have the same single-back, 2 WR, 2 TE formation we saw up above in the Falcons game--and that started with a play fake, and was also called on 1st-and-10!

This simple dive (not SO simple, the LT pulls wide of the TE) is successful; Smith eschews the lane opened up for him, cuts back for good yardage. But beyond that: see how the defense reacts to the motion pre-snap. They all creep up to the line, anticipating run, and run is exactly what they get. This is a great play to set up the D; if the Lions are running well in the third or fourth quarter, they could pull out that play action and expect success.

You may have noticed that the Saints are routinely blitzing the OLBs, and the corners are playing pretty soft. Yeah, Scott Linehan noticed that, too. He puts Megatron in the slot, and throws a quick WR screen to him. Sure enough, both the OLB and MLB blitz right past the play; if Bryant Johnson blocks the corner, Megatron is taking it to the house. Bryant Johnson does not block the corner, but it's still very nearly a first down. This is what happens when you very aggressively "take what the defense gives you".

Okay, again, the OMG DRAMA camerawork covers this up a bit, but the initial formation is a shallow single back (FB), 3-WR set with Megatron in the slot. Presnap, Megatron motions BACK INTO THE TAILBACK SPOT, meaning this is now a "traditional I-Formation" . . . right. With the entire defense keying up to stop whatever crazy BS Megatron's about to pull, the Lions quickly snap it. Stafford turns to his left, Megatron runs left, but Stafford reaches back behind himself and hands it to TERELLE SMITH, who drives into the right side of the line and easily gets the first.

Dude.

No, seriously; dude. We have ourselves a truly excellent offensive coordinator. I am completely head over heels with his approach; I love a complex, effective passing game from traditional run formations. I LOVE creating ridiculous mismatches with one motion or one personnel switch. I REALLY love setting up the defense with run/pass deception, especially as a game-long developing strategy. I LOVE LOVE LOVE how he's making it easy for Stafford to execute complex plays.

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Neither Rain, Nor Snow, Nor Sleet . . . Mailbag!

I got some great submissions for this week's edition. First up is "Calvins Got A Job":

I want to know what the deal with Gosder Cherilus is? He's huge and has a NASTY streak and has seemed durable so far in his short young career. But he guy gets a flag or two thrown at him every week! 15-yarder after 15-yarder... Unreal, Millen... I'm starting to think this kid is going to suck and do this his whole career... i'd be happy if some team was dumb enough to trade for him. Do you know how many penalties he's had in his tenure with the Lions?

Well, you partially answered your own question there; Cherlius's emotions often get the better of him. He has a tendency to get too wrapped up in the emotional battle between him and the guy across from him, and lose his head. It's these lapses in focus that get him to jump early, commit personal fouls, and miss assignments.

The good news is that the initial fears about Gosder--that he just wouldn't be any good--appear to be unfounded. His size and strength are unquestioned, and he's shown improved fluidity and technique. Outside of the penalties, you really don't hear his name called--and as we know, for O-linemen, that's a good thing. I'm going through the film right now, so I'll let you folks know if I see anything on there either way.

From Jeremy Riesman, Lions writer for the Study of Sports:

How do you explain Detroit's success on the ground last week against Minnesota? I figured they would try a bunch, but I really thought Kevin and Pat Williams were going to crush us. You think ManRam won himself the starting job?

Well, again, I'm just tucking in to my film review, so no "Eureka" moments yet. One thing I noticed the Lions' interior linemen doing in the preseason was a judo-like move: they allow DTs to "beat" them in the direction away from the play--then when the back runs past, use their momentum against them, with a hard shove in the direction they're already going. This prevents the DTs from changing direction and getting back in the play.

I'd be willing to bet that that little trick, along with a lot of traps and pulls to Pettigrew's side, opened up seams that wouldn't normally be there. Credit must also go to Kevin Smith for finding those seams and decisively bursting through. According to Nick Cotsonika, Ramirez is now splitting reps 50-50 with Loper, and the Lions will essentially play the matchups between the two of them. Considering I'd essentially written off Ramirez ever contributing, this is great to see. Also, it gives the Lions depth and options at guard--which, considering the Lions' history at that position, is never a bad thing. Mike emailed in with some very kind words (highly appreciated!) and the following question:

Can you see the resemblance? If Ben from Lost was coach, what would he do to help the Lions right this ship?

Well first, I can see where you're going with the resemblance; I chuckled. As for what do to with the team? I think the answer's obvious! He'd beef up the pass protection:

And from Matt:

I still would like your take on Schweigert getting cut? Again, all I saw him do was make plays. . . so what's the problem?

As anyone who's been reading for a while knows, I've been rooting hard for Stu ever since he stayed late to sign my kids' football at the "Lions Uncaged!" open event. He also made plays like crazy in the the preseason; he was practically a one-man defense against Atlanta.

I was aggrieved enough by his release to do some judicious asking around. The response was that he played his way out of a gig during the Cleveland game--of course, the one I didn't see much of. That explains why he was still essentially quarantined to the second halves of the Colts and Bills games--he was already a dead man walking. Impressive performances against the Colts' and Bills' dead men walking apparently weren't enough to stop the Lions from trading for Ko Simpson, and cutting Stuey Schwagger. He continues to stay in touch with fans with his Twitter feed, @schweigert39.

Finally, my man Steve of Detroit Lions Weblog called me out:

You have recently defended the Lions decision to select Brandon Pettigrew with their second first round selection in the April draft. In a comment on another blog you said regarding the selection of Pettigrew over additional assistance to the Lions defensive personnel would have made a tangible difference in the game's outcome, : "No. Absolutely not. The Saints have the best offense in football, and might well be the best team in football this year. With Buchanon out and Eric King starting, it’s a wonder the Saints didn’t push for triple digits! The Lions certainly played better against the Saints this year than last, and for right now that’s all you can ask." Really? Do you honestly view the Saints as legitimate Super Bowl contenders? Do you believe that the Saints are truly that good, or is the Lions defense that bad? Is playing better than last year a real consolation? I know that Saints offense is quite prolific, but given the attention that the Lions paid to their defense during the recent off-season, is it unfair to expect better results? I am already worried that very little has changed in Allen Park, and I will remain a skeptic until given reason to believe otherwise.

First of all, yes, I absolutely believe that the Saints are going to be playing in January, and probably February. That offense is going to go down as one of the most potent ever assembled--and while their defense is not exceptionally talented, it's the *right* one for their offense. What the Saints did to the Lions--get up 14-0 and send everybody at the QB--they're going to do to a lot of teams; they're going to win a LOT of games because of it. Given that divison, I see a 12 or 13-win season for the Saints.

Second, yes, I absolutely stand behind my statement that Brandon Pettigrew is going to do more for the Lions this season (and for the next decade) than any of the defensive personnel available at the 20th pick. Rey Maualuga certainly wouldn't be playing any better than Larry Foote has shown so far, and Peria Jerry--besides being the completely wrong kind of DT prospect--has already been lost for the season due to an knee injury. Can you honestly tell me that there was a late-first-round rookie that was going to slow down the best offense in the NFL?

On Sunday, the Lions will be starting Sammie Lee Hill, DeAndre Levy, and Louis Delmas. They'll also be starting Grady Jackson, Jason Hunter, Anthony Henry, Philip Buchanon, Larry Foote, Julian Peterson, and either Marquand Manuel or Ko Simpson. Given that the whole defense was overhauled, should we expect better results? Well, that depends on what you mean by "better results". All of these players are either untested rookies, or veterans on the downsides of their careers. This was a defense assembled from scratch in one offseason. Will it be better than the 2008 defense--by almost any standard, the worst defense ever? Yes. Will it be a "good" defense? Maybe. Should we "expect" it to be a good defense? . . . no.

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neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet, nor dark of night . . . a.k.a, mailbag

Earlier in the week, I shamelessly prompted you all to flood me with questions via comment, email, twitter, BBM, telephone, telegraph, smoke signals, or however you else could transfer your ideas to my brain.  Kindly, you folks obliged. Longtime reader Dennis voiced a question on a lot of folks' minds:

I was expecting to see a lot of Stafford-to-Pettigrew on hot routes, or as a safety relief for a rookie QB, but he was largely unnoticeable to my eye. He did not improve the running game either, but I could not always tell if he was in.

First let me say, I'm not finished with the offensive film breakdown, so I can't tell you exactly how much he was really in there. FYI, according to the official depth chart, Will Heller is actually the starting tight end. My guess would be that Pettigrew's quad injury, which kept him out of much of training camp and preseason, also kept him from actually earning the starting job. For the record, here's what Schwartz said:

"Yeah, you know there were a few times looking back at the film that we probably should’ve got him the ball. We were trying to push the ball deeper down the field and all of our tight ends were a little bit more open underneath but some of that again goes to being down and trying to catch back up in the game and it’s hard to be patient and take 5-yard gains when you need three scores in the fourth quarter."

That's a pretty reasonable answer. As we saw time and time again last season, being down by two or three touchdowns before you can open a beer means the OC might as well set his gameplan on fire. I think we'll see lots of Pettigrew in the second half of the Vikings game, once Megatron has stretched that Tampa 2 out a little bit and given him room to work underneath.

Don't forget, Pettigrew is a very effective receiver, but he's NOT an Antonio Gates or a Tony Gonzalez. You won't see him slicing down the seam and burning the defense for zillion-yard bombs.  He's a 5-to-15 yard route guy, a chain-mover who's huge and has great hands. He should also be a size mismatch against the Vikes starting strongside 'backer, 6'-2" , 242 lb. Chad Greeway.

From Travis Duncan, editor of Digital Sports Daily:

Because Jim Schwartz started Stafford in Week 1, are we really to believe that Matthew Stafford is the next Peyton Manning? Are Lions fans only getting set up for a major let down by putting the entire franchise on his shoulders during his rookie year?

Wow, that's a hot potato. I guess my first response would be . . . did Bill Polian set Colts fans up for a major letdown when he put the entire franchise on the shoulders of the first Peyton Manning?  When it's all said and done, Peyton will stand as the greatest quarterback ever to play--so anointing Stafford's head with THAT oil would be incredibly bold, and probably wrong.

It's apparent that Stafford has the physical tools to be as good as anyone has ever been. His arm is incredible, and he's more athletic than Manning. I've often thought that if he reaches his potential, the most apt comparison would actually be Elway . . . and man, it scares me to even put those words "on paper".

I've been round and round on this one . . . I've gone from thinking that drafting Stafford would be a critical, horrific mistake to thinking that starting him from Day 1 was absolutely the right decision. He will take his lumps--and I'm perfectly willing to accept that the Lions may win 1 or fewer games than they would have with Culpepper at the helm all year.  Culpepper's out of here at the end of the year; I want Stafford to have a year of experience, a year of film, and a year of chemistry with Megatron and Pettigrew and all those guys to build on for next season.

Another from Dennis:

I hardly heard Ernie Sims's name called at all, at least not until the late hit personal foul. Thoughts?

This goes back to the fact that the defense was on its heels from the get-go. Phillip Buchanon was a surprise scratch--so, facing the most potent passing offense in football, the Lions were starting Eric King at corner, and Marquand Manuel and rookie Louis Delmas at safety. Henry played well--and even got a pick!--but it was "All Hands On Deck" to try and stop the bleeding from the opening kickoff. The Lions were playing with a bend-but-don't-break philosophy. Again, to quote Schwartz: 

"On defense we knew that they were going to gain yards – points were the bottom line – we couldn’t allow touchdowns. We were poor on third down, we were poor on redzone defense and on those first two drives we allowed touchdowns on both and our offense went three-and-out right in between. You couldn’t start off the game any worse than we did."

So, all you've been hearing about all season? All that talk about Ernie Sims being unleashed, a 40% blitz ratio, taking the burden of read-and-react off of Sims' shoulders and just asking him to be a weapon up a lane? Yeah, all that stuff went away. There simply wasn't any choice; the Lions knew they simply didn't have the personnel to stop the Saints--so they tried to emphasize red zone defense, generating turnovers, and special teams excellence to keep the Saints on a long field and their offense on the short field. It almost worked. If Sims is again invisible in this Vikings game, feel free to be as concerned as you like.

From an anonymous commenter on the solicitation post:

Why do you rock so hard?

Because I am secretly the Reel Big Fish.

John, from Champaign, wrote a wonderful email centered around this question:

Just wondered if you could give a quick rundown on what the game day environment is like around Ford Field on game days, and possibly how that compared to the old days at the Silverdome? For long distance Lions fans like myself that aren't from MI or Detroit, I kind of wonder what's it's like sometimes, and how the losing has affected the game day experience.

Well, I would absolutely love to give you an answer.  Unfortunately, seeing the games live hasn't been something I've been able to do often enough, either.  I live in the Lansing area, not Detroit--so when I've gone, it's not been the kind of thing where I tailgate all morning and then party all night.  Second, when I was a little kid, spending the time and money to drive, park, eat, watch, etc. wasn't really something my mom was willing/able to do. The first time I was able to actually drive to and attend a Lions event on my own was the first training camp of the Millen era--so I can't really tell you how it used to be like in the Glory Days of Fontes and 5-11.

Honestly, the difference between the Silverdome and Ford Field, in my experience, has been that fans came to the Silverdome 80,000 strong, ready to raucously cheer for--or boo at--the home team at the drop of a hat.  Now, fans come to Ford Field on a pilgrimage of quiet desperation, hanging on every moment, hoping to see something, anything positive.

I honestly think that the crowd will be going nuts at the beginning of this game--and if the Lions play well or win, it's going to be a madhouse. But if the Lions are out of it early, it's going to be a long, dreary day--and it'll be mostly Vikes fans by the bitter end.

But as I've said, I'm making a point to be there for this game--and if I have to be a one-man 12th man, then with you all as my witness, I will. If I have any voice left at the end of this game, I'll consider myself a failure.

Thanks again for all the great questions, folks—please, hit me up again whenever you want!  You can email thelionsinwinter@gmail.com, hit me up on Twitter @lionsinwinter, or of course just comment here!

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