A Very Serious Talk: The Offensive Line

Okay, it's time to have a Very Serious Talk about the Lions' offensive line.

I've been reading a lot of stuff lately about the offensive line. Let's nail down some facts about last season, so we can move forward like grownups.

The Lions were bad at run blocking last year.

According to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards stat, the Lions had the 31st—2nd-worst—run-blocking unit in the NFL. This will not come as a shock to anyone who, you know, watched the Lions last year. Their 3.70 ALY was well off the league average of 4.08. Their Power Success rate (52%) was ranked 28th, and their Stuffed Percentage (21%) was 25th.

However, the raw YPC by by the Lions' running backs was 4.22; that's just off the NFL average of 4.31. That's the 19th-best pace in the league, packed tightly with a lot of other teams right around the average. Being mediocre at the second level (ranked 21st) and solid in the open field (ranked 14th) shows the Lions' motley crew of backs managed to make things happen on the rare occasions they had daylight.

The Lions weren't really trying to run block last year.

However, let's give that figure a little context. The Lions attempted passes more (666 times) and more often (62.9% of plays) than anyone else in the NFL. The Lions lined up in the shotgun 68% of the time, more than anyone else in the NFL. They carried the ball fewer times (356) than all but one team, and at the rarest rate (33.6) of any team. Though the Lions were undoubtedly going to be a pass-first team in 2011, they almost completely abandoned the traditional run game. Expecting them to be good at it doesn’t make sense.

Perhaps the Lions' interior line isn't comprised of mashers, and the Lions didn't change personnel address that in the offseason. But swapping Dominic Raiola out for a he-man road grader would be making the Lions better at what they did one-third of the time last year at the expense of what they did two-thirds of the time. That's just not smart.

Rob Sims will be better at run blocking this year.

As we saw in the guard Old Mother Hubbard, Rob Sims was one of the best pass-blocking guards in the NFL last season, but well below-average against the run. Sims intentionally added 20 pounds of quality weight from the end of the season to now, and he did it to shore up his anchoring against the run and interior pass rush:

“Last couple years, I’ve been playing really light -- a lot lighter than I’m used to playing, and I felt there were some parts of my game that were affected because of that,” he said. “Mainly, some of the stuff I do on the run and stuff like that, I just didn’t have that pop I was used to. It wasn’t I was just gorging myself and wanted to be 20 extra pounds out there, it’s just that we’ve been having some trouble keeping weight on me throughout the season ,so I wanted to start a little heavier and work my way down.”

Per Dave Birkett, Sims actually dropped below 300 pounds by the end of last season; that’s simply too light for today’s NFL, 68% shotgun notwithstanding. By getting back up to about 320, Sims should have much better luck cracking open seams for Leshoure and Best to pop through.

The Lions will run the ball more this year.

The Lions mostly abandoned the run once they lost Jahvid Best, had one glorious game of healthy Kevin Smith, and then abandoned the run again. Best, Smith, and Mikel Leshoure are all participating in OTAs, which is a fantastic sign. If all are healthy, expect the run game—and under-center snaps—to be a bigger part of the Lions’ playcalling. When you’re setting up to run block, you’ll be more successful at it.

Riley Reiff could provide an immediate boost, or not.

We know from the offensive tackle Old Mother Hubbard that Jeff Backus is an above-average left tackle. We know he began the season with a torn pectoral muscle, and played like it. We know that after the bye week, he played as well as any left tackle in the NFL. We know he tore a bicep against New Orleans in the playoffs; we know he’s supposed to be ready for training camp.

The question here isn’t whether Jeff Backus can play left tackle at a high level, it’s for how long he’ll be able. Ideally, Backus gets healthy and has a great season, and Riley Reiff beings to push him next offseason, or possibly the year after that. Maybe Reiff solidifies the right tackle spot for the second half of this season, and swings over to the left once

It doesn’t sound like that’s the plan, though. As Jim Schwartz said:

"He's a left tackle. He fits the criteria that you want at that position. He's big, tough, he's a former tight end and a three-time state wrestling champ (South Dakota). He comes from a great tradition of offensive linemen at Iowa. He's a good run blocker and a good pass protector. "Even though he is young and will still improve in certain areas, we're not drafting a guy that's a developmental player."

Wow, that sounds almost like he's planning on Reiff pushing Backus from Day One.

"We'll put them all out there and we'll play. Their play in training camp, in the OTAs and in the preseason, that will determine those things, not anything we are thinking right now."

Oh. So that right there is Jim Schwartz opening the competition for a spot  Jeff Backus has had on lockdown for 176 consecutive games. Moreover, it’s him throwing a pretty big bucket of cold water on the notion that Reiff is short-term right tackle help. It’s not to say he won’t moonlight there, of course, but the Lions view Reiff as their left tackle for the medium-, long-, and possibly even short run.

The question is, even if Reiff supplants Backus, will Reiff play any better than Backus? Maybe, maybe not. I couldn’t think of a segue, but Holy Schwartz! regressed PFF blocking grades against offensive tackle arm length and oh man is it worth a click.

Per Football Outsiders, the Lions ran behind Backus 20% of the time. That’s the fourth-highest rate in the NFL; only the Cardinals, Seahawks, Bengals, and Rams ran behind their left tackle more. With an ALY of 3.65, they were only 24th-most effective at running behind the LT, but the Lions clearly trusted Backus much more than the interior or the right side.

Oddly, the Lions were most effective when running behind the right tackle. At 4.22 ALY, they were 20th-best in the NFL, close to the 4.26 league average. So if Riley Reiff is to improve either left tackle spot, he’ll have to be more trustworthy than Jeff Backus all-around, OR the best run-blocker on the line, OR so much better at pass protection than Cherilus that the run blocking doesn’t matter.

The Lions are actually really really good at pass blocking.

I know many Lions fans still freak out about that time Julius Peppers beat Jeff Backus and injured Matthew Stafford, but the Lions dropped back 702 times and allowed only 36 sacks in 2011; that's an Adjusted Sack Rate of 5.9%. That's 10th-best in the NFL. Pro Football Focus graded the Lions at +35.0 in pass protection, 3rd-best in the NFL.

I know for many people pass protection starts and stops with a 6’-4,” 360-pound He-Man Hall of Fame Left Tackle who never ever gives up a sack, ever. But those guys come once or twice in a generation, if at all—and there are four other guys on the line, protecting four pass-rush gaps the left tackle never gets to. The fact is, the Lions do a very good job of keeping Matthew Stafford clean—even though Stafford is exposed more often than any other quarterback in the NFL.

We clear now?

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Offensive Guards

Last year’s offensive guard Old Mother Hubbard was sobering indeed. The Lions had stolen a productive young starter from Seattle in Rob Sims, and Stephen Peterman was coming off an outstanding 2009. In 2010 they were pretty good and horrible, respectively. Worst of all, the bad performances fueled each other: Raiola does best with help from the guards in the run game, but when the guards are struggling there’s no hope.

Let’s look at last years’ bottom line for each of them:

Rob Sims is an above-average starter just entering his prime. If it weren’t for an odd midseason slump, Sims would have graded out amongst the best in the NFL. He’s locked up until 2014, and should provide stability at the spot for the first time in a very, very long time.

Stephen Peterman turned in incredibly consistent, strongly positive grades in 2009, and was clearly hampered by a laundry list of dings this season. We can reasonably expect a major bounceback in 2011—and, like Sims, he is under contract through 2014.

2011’s performance chart looks much, much, much better:

At the top of the list is Philadelphia’s Evan Mathis. At +34.6 overall, he was in a class by himself. His run block grade was a breathtaking +20.4, more than three times as high as the next-best effort. His pass blocking wasn’t too shabby either; at +10.6 he was the 9th-highest rated guard out of 77. Screen blocking has very little variance, but Evans was in a seven-way tie for 4th place at +2.0.

At the rear, ranked 77th, we have Jacksonville’s Will Rackley. –12.7 run block, –18.9 pass block, –3.6 penalty, –35.7 overall. Brutal.

The Lions guards are much closer to the former than the latter.

Rob Sims was the 14th-highest graded guard in football, and the eighth-highest graded left guard. Most of that comes from his outstanding +11.1 pass block grade, tied for seventh-best in the NFL (second-best amongst left guards). With three assessed penalties on 1,143 snaps, his +2.1 penalty grade was an asset, too.

Now the bad news: Sims earned a –6.5 in run blocking, and had a vicious run of four negative grades from Week 3 to Week 7. The run-block mark isn’t as bad as it looks; the NFL average is –4.3. But Sims’ –4.9, –1.3, –4.3, and –1.4 for Weeks 3, 5, 6, and 7 respectively were his only negative grades of the year. I’m not even excluding neutral/weakly negative grades, as I usually do: those four awful games were his only not-positive grades all year.

What's even weirder, this slump mirrors Sims' performance from 2010: all but one of his negative grades came in five consecutive games from Week 6 to Week 11. I can’t explain either swoon, but when he’s not in the midst of one Sims is absolutely rock-solid, especially against the pass.

Statistically, Sims allowed one sack, eight QB hits, and 11 pressures over 1,143 snaps. That's one every 57.2, 20th-best in the NFL and above the league average of 50.9. However, as I noted with Raiola, the Lions ran the fourth-most offensive plays in the NFL and passed on 63% of those plays—the most frequent pass rate in football.

So far, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller and staff have only completed the analysis of the right guards; I can’t give you Sims’ scouting profile (though I will update this piece when their piece goes live). Update: here’s the B/R 1000 scouting report on Rob Sims; he’s ranked the 12th-best left guard in the NFL.

Bottom line: Rob Sims is one of the 10 best left guards in the NFL, and in the top 15 overall. He is an exceptional pass-blocker, and keeps his nose clean. He is subpar in the run game, and seems to have a several-game stretch of poor form every season. But outside of those midseason swoons, he’s extraordinarily dependable. He is signed through 2014 and will be a key component of the offense going forward.

Stephen Peterman needed to have a big-time bounceback after last year’s injury-riddled campaign, and he did. Peterman’s performance was just a tick below Sims’ in every facet of the game: +4.2 overall, 20th-best in the NFL and ninth-best amongst right guards. His pass block was +9.1, 14th-best overall and eighth-best rightie.

Peterman's run block grade is further off the pace than Sims’s,  at –8.0. That figure is ranked 56th of 77, and deeper below the NFL average of –4.3. Peterman was also flagged five times, with one declined/offset, so his overall grade got dinged for that.

Ready to have your mind blown? At +3.0, Stephen Peterman registered the second-best screen block grade in the NFL. Remember, we’re talking about 6’-4",” 323-pound Stephen Peterman here.

Peterman was more inconsistent than Sims. He registered more peaks (four games graded +2.5 or better, compared to three for Sims), but also had more flat/weakly negative games, and his five negative games were sprinkled throughout the season instead of clustered in one big slump.

Statistically, Peterman allowed 2 sacks, 4 hits, and 13 pressures, one every 60.2 snaps. That rate is slightly better than Sims’s, and of course Peterman played the same number of snaps in the same offense that Sims did.

Bleacher Report graded out Stephen Peterman as the 12th-best right guard in the game, at 70.5 overall. As with Raiola, their scouting report dovetails nicely with what we see above: great size, great movement in space, very good pass blocking, extremely shaky run blocking  and off-putting inconsistency.

By the way, for those of you who don’t know Matt Miller’s work, I relied on his New Era Scouting draft evaluations extensively before he signed up with B/R. I’m not forwarding you to his because we’re colleagues, I’m forwarding you to it because it’s great stuff.

Bottom Line: Stephen Peterman proved his horrifying 2010 backslide was due entirely to injury. He’s shares Sims’s and Raiola’s weakness in the interior run game—not what you want from a right guard—but he completes a fantastic pass-blocking interior trio . . . maybe the best in the NFL. Like Sims, he is signed through 2014.

“Davis, Leonard” is a name that appears on the Lions’ roster next to some very big numbers like 6’-6”, 355, 33, 11, and Texas. The former Cardinal and Cowboy was tipped to replace Peterman after his disastrous performance in Dallas. However, the Lions didn’t sign Davis until a month after that game, and he never saw the field.

Except for practice squadder Jacques McClendon, Davis is the only backup for either guard position, and will be 34 shortly after the season starts.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions have two top-third starters in their prime locked up until 2014. Their only backup, however, hasn’t played since the close of the 2010 season and is at, or near, the end of his career. Ideally, the Lions will draft a talented center who can push Davis to back up one, if not both, guard positions.

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In Defense of the Detroit Lions Offensive line

For decades the Lions offensive line has been a punching bag, both in physical and philosophical terms. This season is no different: fans have howled about the five-sack disaster in Minnesota, the abundance of penalties, and the continued inability to run impressively between the tackles. Nearly every Lions offensive lineman (excepting Rob Sims) has heard calls for his head on a pike, and it’s just barely October.

Line play was always one of the intricacies of the game; secret mojo that casual fans don’t perceive. Certain players or units are so consistently outstanding that analysts take pains to point them out, though, so most fans are dimly aware of “good” and “bad,” especially in terms of the quarterback’s time to throw.

Still, even hardcore fans can’t evaluate the offensive line in one full-speed viewing—at least, not without ignoring stuff like the ball and the outcome of the play. For the most part, fans judge their team’s offensive lines by the totality of their effort: number of sacks, number of penalties, average time to throw, perceived running lanes.

In recent years, though, the explosion of football information—and tools like DVR and NFL Game Rewind—lets us go back and see who really allowed Jared Allen’s sacks. Sort of.

If modern technology and analysis provide fans with a treasure trove of ways to evaluate their teams’ offensive line, what fans lack is any way to objectively compare that performance against others. When Cris Carter insisted Calvin Johnson is not an “elite” wide receiver, I slathered Carter’s good name in statistical napalm and lit a match.

When Lions fans say the offensive line “sucks,” I have few weapons with which to defend their honor—despite being sure the Lions’ line is a solid pass-blocking unit, and not a terrible run-blocking unit either. ESPN’s Ross Tucker explains:

It's not their fault. Or at least not entirely. That is the only logical explanation that can be drawn about the quality of offensive line play at the quarter pole of the NFL season.

Before you assume that this is a column written by a former offensive lineman attempting to absolve his trench brethren of their inadequacies, consider the facts. If close to 75 percent of the fans in the NFL think their teams' offensive line stinks, maybe the problem isn't actually the offensive line but rather what they are being asked to do?

At a minimum, fans and media alike need to look at the number of teams unhappy with offensive line play and realize that maybe this is the new normal. If that is the standard of performance for more than half of the teams in the league, then that is, by definition, the average.

Of course, the Internet’s gold standard in hardcore game footage review and line play evaluation is Pro Football Focus. I looked at the PFF team pass blocking grades over this year, last year, and the year before.

CHART?

Chart.

This is the distribution of PFF team pass block grades for 2009, 2010, and 2011 to date. The X axis is standard deviation from the mean, and the Y axis is the number of teams who fall into the half-standard-deviation tiers. “-3.0” is three standard deviations below the mean, “0” is the mean, and “+3.0” is three standard deviations above the mean.

The first thing that jumps out at you is the way the 2009 line appears to disappear. In fact, 2009 and 2010 had the exact same distribution above the mean: eight teams between the mean and one-half standard deviation above, six teams between +0.5 and +1, five teams between +1 and +1.5, and no teams two standard deviations or more above the mean. In both seasons, then 19 teams were graded above the mean.

In both seasons there was a hearty group of “above average” pass blocking lines; the majority of NFL offensive lines were a little bit better than the mean. On the downside of those two slopes, the distributions are similar. They seesaw with a gap of two or three teams from –0.5 down to –2.5, where they each have one. Both years share an overall shape: a few awful teams, several bad teams, some “meh” teams, then most of the NFL is between “okay” to “good,” with just a few “pretty good” pass-blocking lines and no “very good” or “great” ones.

A quarter of the way through this year, a different shape is emerging. Only 16 teams are grading out above the median, meaning four fewer “good” or “pretty good” pass-blocking lines. The Tennessee Titans are that outlying bump at +2.5; an entire standard deviation above the second-best Buffalo Bills.

After that, though, it’s more bad news: nine teams are at least 1.5 standard deviations below the mean, compared to four in 2010 and six in 2009. That’s 28% of the league’s offensive lines at “bad” or worse!

Now here’s the interesting bit. We see that so far in 2010, there are fewer relatively “good” pass-blocking lines and more relatively “bad” ones. But that’s only relative to each other in the same season. What about year-over-year?

PFF normalizes all of their grades, meaning these grades aren’t just the raw scores. The first season they graded (2008), they adjusted the grades so they averaged out to zero. In subsequent seasons, they’ve normalized their grades with the same factors as from 2008—meaning, grades from 2009 and 2010 and 2011 will compare directly to 2008 (and each other).

Look at 2009’s mean: –0.22, or almost exactly zero. This means that PFF’s raw pass-blocking grades (and in theory, leaguewide pass-blocking performance) was almost identical from 2008 to 2009. But in 2010 that mean dropped to –18.56. In 2009, a team that graded out at –18.56 would have been binned in the “-0.5 to –1.0” tier! If we do an incredibly crude projection of this season’s grades (multiply by four), the average 2011 team will grade out at –24.99, very nearly a full standard deviation below 2009’s mean!

This implies that leaguewide pass blocking performance has declined dramatically from recent norms. Not only has the distribution changed so that more teams are “bad” at pass blocking while fewer are “good,” the standards for “bad” and “good” are noticeably lower. [Ed. – Upon further review, I added a second chart. Was in danger of violating 1 picture/thousand words rule.]

Here’s a better way of seeing the year-over-year change: the 2009 grades are an almost perfect expected distribution between extremes, norms, positives, and negatives. The 2010 grades have a nearly-identical shape, just with an across-the-board decrease. The 2011 grades, though crudely projected, again reflect a change in distribution: there are far more bad-to-awful lines, and far fewer decent-to-good ones.

PFF detractors will be quick to claim this as proof of flaws in their methodology; that’s certainly possible. But it dovetails perfectly with what Ross Tucker has observed: teams are passing at a ridiculous rate, and increasingly using tight ends and running backs as targets, rather than blockers. They’re hanging their offensive linemen out to dry to spread the defense and the ball around the field—and it’s showing in both passing effectiveness, and pass protection grades.

Throughout all three seasons, the Lions haven’t been more than a half a standard deviation off the mean. They were just below league average in 2009, just above it in 2010, and are just below it as we speak. This is the most pessimistic assessment of the Lions pass blocking I could find.

Football Outsiders ranks the Lions' pass protection as third-best in the NFL, with an Adjusted Sack Rate of 2.9%. The New York Life Protection Index currently ranks the Lions’ O-line 7th-best at keeping the quarterback clean. In both cases, they’d likely be topping the charts if it weren’t for the Minnesota game . . . which, given my suspicions about the Vikings’ eternally-rowdy home atmosphere, that really grinds my gears.

Jeff Backus is not Walter Jones. We know this. To our untrained eyes, the pass protection seems “lousy,” and the data suggests that our untrained eyes are absolutely right. But if our “lousy” is just about as good as everyone else’s “lousy,” then it’s not really all that lousy. And, if our “lousy” is really much better than everyone else’s “lousy,” as FO and the NYLPI imply, then we’d better learn to appreciate what we’ve got.

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Jeff Backus, Jared Allen, and Dirty Cheating Vikings

PaulieP (Scottsdale): Colts first time here, do you believe the allegations about pumping in crowd noise? Have you heard the "skip"?

Jeremy Green: (11:10 AM ET ) I don't doubt it. The Vikings used to do it in the 90's when they had very good foootball teams.

Jeremy Green is the son of former Vikings coach Dennis Green. In 2007, after the Colts' CD of crowd noise audibly skipped during a Pats game, the younger Green admitted in an ESPN chat that the Vikings used fake crowd noise, too. Both teams play in domed stadiums, play admittedly loud music, and are famous for unfailingly-loud crowds—but both teams staunchly deny they artificially boost the crowd noise.

CBS ultimately took the fall for the Colts incident, claiming their audio may have fed back somehow; the NFL scrubbed all recordings of the event from the Internet. Green later said it was just, like, his opinion man—one informed only by half his lifetime spent going to Vikings games during his father’s tenure as head coach. As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk said at the time:

Please.

The initial comments from Jeremy Green sure don't read like opinion, and Green's relationship with the head coach at the time puts him in a great situation to know the facts.

The mere fact that Green would try to backpedal in such lame fashion tells us all we need to know.

Then again, Green is now doing hard time for possession of drugs and child pornography, so his character isn’t unimpeachable.

The Lions offensive line had kept Matthew Stafford clean through the first two weeks, allowing zero sacks by either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Kansas City Chiefs. The Bucs and Chiefs have combined for nine sacks across the other four games they’ve played, yet neither bagged Stafford once. Through two weeks, the Lions had the No. 1 Pro Football Focus-graded pass-blocking line in football.

Yet, the line was in disarray against Minnesota: Jeff Backus had one of the worst games of his career, and earned the worst PFF grade (–7.6) they’ve ever assigned him. Backus was flagged for four penalties, including consecutive false starts on a critical fourth-quarter drive. He also got the blame for two sacks and three QB pressures.

Gosder Cherilus was benched after allowing a sack and a pressure in just the first six snaps. Replacement Corey Hilliard didn’t fare much better: he allowed a sack, two hits, and a pressure. Rob Sims also allowed a sack and three pressures; his –4.9 PFF grade was his second-worst-ever (besides the 2008 season opener, when he played through a torn pectoral muscle). Oddly, the two whipping boys of the Lions line—Dom Raiola and Stephen Peterman—had the days’ best grades at –1.1 and +1.1, respectively. Raiola’s pass blocking grade by itself was positive (+0.3)

What happened here? Is Jared Allen that much better than Tamba Hali? Is Kevin Williams that much better than Gerald McCoy? Or might it have something to do with the “crowd” being so loud that Matthew Stafford had both hands pressed over both earholes in the second quarter, trying desperately to hear the radio embedded in his helmet?

Make no mistake: crowd noise is, will, should be a factor in NFL games. During the Kansas City game, when we Lions fans cheered loud enough to draw a timeout or a false start, it was a great feeling knowing we had given our team an advantage. Seahawks fans strongly believe they are “The 12th Man.”

That’s why the Lions veteran line, coached by an experienced coordinator like Scott Linehan, should have been better prepared to deal with the notorious Mall of America noise. The Lions didn’t use max protect against Minnesota’s pass rush, preferring to throw it over the Vikings heads.

Unfortunately, Lions receivers didn’t get open consistently enough to make that approach effective. Nate Burleson, who usually thrives in space underneath, was nearly invisible. It wasn't until Matthew Stafford leaned on Brandon Pettigrew and Titus Young in the second half that the Lions started moving the chains.

Trusting the offensive line to slow Jared Allen and company long enough for Stafford to make the Vikings pay was a gamble. Noise or no, the line clearly didn’t respond the way Lions coaches had hoped. After the game, head coach Jim Schwartz said, “We need to be more effective at [right tackle]. I will just leave it at that.” On Backus, Schwartz’s opinion was similar: “He gets a lot of attention because he's a left tackle. Just in general terms, Jeff can play better and he will play better.”

Ultimately, pointing fingers at Minnesota’s illegal advantage—real or perceived—is folly. Good teams overcome disadvantages like that; they persevere and perforam. No matter what you think of the Vikings’ tactics, Jeff Backus and the offensive line was good enough to pass what might be their toughest test all year: Jared Allen and the Vikings line in one of the toughest road environments in football.

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Neither Rain, Nor Snow, Nor Sleet . . . Preseason Gameday Mailbag!

It’s been far too long since the last mailbag, and since preseason is all about answering questions, I took some questions via email and Twitter, and I’m going to try to answer them. First up:

Casey, sent from his or her iPad--

The bengals have a relatively strong d line. Do you think we'll see how well staffords protection will be tomorrow, even with backups? Also I keep hearing sims is taking snaps. Any insight on that?

The quick answer is no; Jeff Backus will provide Stafford’s blindside protection this season, but he won’t be playing tonight. Per Dave Birkett’s projected two-deeps for tonight, Corey Hilliard will get the start at left tackle, with Johnny Culbreath backing him up. That having been said, the remainder of the offensive line is intact. Rob Sims was getting some snaps at left tackle purely out of a lack of bodies.

At the outset of camp, Hilliard and Ugoh couldn’t play because the new CBA hadn’t been ratified. You need two complete units to rotate “ones” and “twos,” so someone besides the only healthy left tackle had to play left tackle. The Sims experiment, or “necessity” as Schwartz called it, lasted just one practice.

To the greater point, "protection" is more than just the left tackle; only one of Stafford’s three shoulder separations came on a blindside hit. The others were during broken plays, not from a straight-up failure of the left tackle. Without Backus and Pettigrew, protection may indeed be shaky. Most of all, I’m looking for a great night from Stephen Peterman. He was outstanding in 2009, and awful in 2010, and his play will either be a great boon to Jahvid Best, or spell another season of “one yard and a cloud of dust” up the middle.

From @Jimbocity84 - If our patchwork O-Line lets stafford get rocked on the first series, does he see a second one?

Yes. As much as they want to protect him, subconsciously I think you want to see Stafford take a hit and bounce back up.

From @KrisWD40 - Could Rayner actually unseat Hanson as our kicker? He seems like a good option and he's got much more tred on the tires.

Rayner played well enough last year to start somewhere this year, and I’d love to see him take over whenever Hanson is done. But Hanson’s one of the best kickers of all time, and he hasn’t lost much off his leg or his accuracy. Two years ago, he had the best season a kicker’s ever had, on worst team of all time. If nothing else, Hanson deserves to stick around for the playoff run. Who knows? Maybe Rayner waits around for the gig to open up.

From @anthonytimlin - Who should we be keeping our eye on outside of the starters?

I kinda-sorta answered this yesterday:

The Lions’ strongest unit is quarterback; while I hope we’ll see at least two series from Matthew Stafford, I’d also like to see Drew Stanton in the whole second half. I doubt Shaun Hill will be interested in re-upping as a long-term backup, so the Lions have to find out if Drew Stanton is capable of taking his place. Elsewhere offensively, I’m hoping to get a long, long look at Johnny Culbreath at LT, and Derrick Williams at WR. Don’t think I won’t be watching the tailback situation with interest, too; I expect Harrison to get a lot of work.

On the defensive side, I hope to see very little Ndamukong Suh. I want Sammie Hill, Andre Fluellen, and Quinn Pitcock in and causing havoc. I want a BIG dose of The Great Willie Young. I hope to see the starting linebacker trio in for as many snaps as possible. I hope to see a lot of Aaron Berry working against A.J. Green. I want Amari Spievey in there as much as possible, too; I’m convinced that more reps will help him develop quickly into a force.

Berry likely won’t play, so instead I’ll just say “the cornerbacks.” To specify a little more on the tailbacks, I want to see the Jahvid Best we saw last preseason, then a 50/50 mix of Aaron Brown and Jerome Harrsion.

From @AdamantiumAC - Do you think Harrison is capable of moving to HB2 on the depth chart, even with a healthy Morris? (FTR, I do)

Honestly, they’re pretty similar backs. Harrison isn’t nearly as young as everyone seems to think, and Morris has proven himself a very solid #2 for two years running (pun intended). I could see it, but I don’t think it’ll affect the bottom line that much. Neither is Leshoure, so neither will really replace him. It’s going to be up to Best to prove he can be that every-down back.

From @Dustin_aka_D - Our offense is going to need a nickname soon. I don't want any rehashing of "great Lakes offense" or "silver stretch" either

Eh. I'm a fan of nicknames, but they have to be organic. Schwartz picking one from a contest isn’t the same as an actual nickname. “Megatron” was Roy Williams’ honest attempt at describing Calvin Johnson’s ridiculous abilities, and it stuck. Since the Lions’ offense isn’t unique systematically, it’s more about execution and the players. If a nickname for the offense is in the offing, it’ll become apparent during play.

From @johnweeast - Which RB's you have them keeping right now? and WR?

Yikes. I often avoid roster projections, because I'm often wrong. I thought John Wendling had only the most extreme long shot to make last year’s roster, and he made the first 53 in style. Best and Morris have roster spots, and after that it’s up for grabs. Aaron Brown will likely have tonight to prove he’s worth keeping around. If he can’t, Harrison likely gets the third spot—though if they need to keep six wideouts, Harrison may have to fight Felton for that spot. I DO think Derrick Williams makes it, one way or another. One last thing: the “final 53” is anything but; the last few spots will still churn like crazy after other teams release useful players.

From @Dustin_aka_D - do you think the lions will try anything resembling the old Chicago 46 this year on defense?Seems like we have players for it

A: No. B. My gosh, you’re right, they totally do. Check this out:

The NT is a two-gap tackle; think Sammie Hill and/or Corey Willams there. On either side, Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh each directly over a guard, holding the B gaps down. KVB rotating with Lo-Jack at the DE spot. Avril and Levy/Durant at the two upfront LB spots, with Tulloch and Delmas as the back two (Delmas would play the “46” role). Amari Spievey would play centerfield, and Chris Houston and Eric Wright would be in charge of preventinging all pass catching.

The first little bit sounded really great, but by the end you got to see why the 46 just isn’t used much: modern precision short-range passing offenses would just carve this up, unless you did a LOT of zone blitzing—and what’s the point of putting eight in the box and bringing everyone if you don’t bring everyone? As a change-of-pace run-stopping look, I love it. As an occasional blitzing front, why not? But ultimately, I’m not sure it makes the DL enough more effective to make up for how dramatically you’d be exposing a secondary with question marks.

Finally, I want to share with you an email from Bob R. He responded to the Mikel Leshoure piece with some intense memories:

I am fifty three years old and I remember watching a game involving the NY Jets back in the 70's. In this particular game Emerson Boozer, I believe it was, ruptured his Achilles. Back then they didn't have the "in stadium" medical facilities they do now so they helped him off the field to the bench where the team doctors examined what appeared, to the commentators, to be his Achilles region. As the cameras kept cutting back to Boozer on the bench we could clearly see he was sobbing...and not from the pain. Which lead the "Color Man", a former player, to somberly intone, " If this is an Achilles Tendon, then we have just seen Emerson's last play. His career is over." And it was.

So back in the seventies an Achilles rupture was a football players death sentence.

I experienced this first hand when my father back in the 70's ruptured a disc in the lumbar region of his spine. "L5" to be specific. The surgery he endured left him with two vertebra fused together, which limits his movement and causes pain to this day, and left him with a ten inch scar down the center of his back. He spent a week in the hospital after surgery and then two more weeks flat on his back at home in a great deal of pain.

In 1993 I had the pleasure of enduring the same injury to my L5. But the difference in my experience versus his was like night and day.

I went into the hospital at 8am, had surgery at 11:30am and was walking down the hall of my ward by three that afternoon. The scar from my surgery is two inches long and I was back at work , pain free, in seven days.

Now, I know we're talking about apples and oranges when it comes to the demands Mikel's body will require, as opposed to mine. But I think it's safe to say that had Emerson Boozer's injury occurred now, he most certainly would have played again.

Like yours, my heart goes out to him and his family as they face the beginning of the long road back.

All this is to say, I think your right. I think Leshoure has an excellent chance to be a top RB in this league for years to come.

What can I possibly add to that? Leshoure’s injury is a “gut punch” to him, his family, Jim Schwartz, and the franchise—but it isn’t a death sentence. Orthopedic surgery and treatment have advanced tremendously in the past few decades—and NFL stars aren’t getting the same therapy  that weekend warriors are. Josh at Roar of the Lions posted how his own shoulder rehab contrasts with what’s known about Matthew Stafford’s regimen; the difference is astonishing.

To wrap this all up, I’m glad to say I’ll be at the game tonight; please follow @lionsinwinter on Twitter for my real-time updates. I hope whatever TV you’re watching isn’t too tape-delayed—and no matter what, GO LIONS!

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Offensive Guards

Offensive linemen take the most punishment in the NFL—however, they’re built to take it. They also have to work together as a cohesive unit; no other position group is as reliant on chemistry and continuity. Plus, they don’t have to run very far. As a result, offensive linemen typically start a ridiculous percentage of snaps. They don’t flex, they don’t rotate, they don’t get spelled, they don’t have multiple sets. SO, there are very few of them for me to break down:

The top-graded guard is New Orleans’ Carl Nicks, thanks to his strong pass-block grade and Herculean, almost-twice-as-good-as-the-next-guy run-block grade. Bringing up the rear is St. Louis’ Adam Goldberg, who was second-to-worst in both pass blocking AND run blocking.

The Lions’ top guard (of the only two with the requisite number of snaps) is Rob Sims. Overall, he graded out as an excellent pass blocker (ranked 16th-best of 82), and a subpar-but-not awful run blocker (68th of 82). His screen block grades were unremarkable (most are), but his penalty mark was nicely above average (only 2 penalties called all year).

Statistically, Sims allowed 3 sacks and 4 hits, slightly off the the league average of 2 and 3. But, his average-snaps-per-sack-or-pressure rate was 162.6, actually better than the 145.4 league average. Same story for pressures: Sims allowed a pressure every 63 snaps, and the average is 62. 

A quick reminder: PFF tracks sacks, hits, and pressures separately, a sack does not count as both a hit and a pressure. So, from these numbers, Rob Sims consistently makes good plays in pass protection, earning a quality pass-block, and overall, PFF grade. He allows sacks, hits, and pressures at a slightly better-than-average rate. His run-blocking left a lot to be desired, but he played exceptionally clean. On the whole, we see Sims just about as advertised: a solid NFL left guard, and the best player to slot between Backus and Raiola . . . probably ever.

There's an interesting bit, though: Sims’ grades took a huge midseason swoon. 5 of his 6 negatively-graded games came consecutively: in weeks 6, 8, 9, 10, and 11. Besides Week 3, Sims was weakly or strongly positive in every other contest. I can’t find any evidence of an injury . . . the only midseason event that happened to Sims was the signing of his four-year extension, which happened during Week 5.

Bottom Line: Sims is an above-average starter just entering his prime. If it weren’t for an odd midseason slump, Sims would have graded out amongst the best in the NFL. He’s locked up until 2014, and should provide stability at the spot for the first time in a very, very long time.

It's no secret that Stephen Peterman struggled with injuries all season long, and his grades reflect it. The seventh-most penalized guard out of 82 with qualifying reps, Peterman was subpar at pass blocking—and simply awful against the run (6th-worst). Considering Peterman is a 6’-4”, 323-pound beast who was PFF’s 13th-best-graded guard in 2009, this only makes sense in the context of playing hurt.

Peterman visibly couldn’t anchor against the run, and he was absolutely abused. He only turned in three strongly positive grades all year, and only two positive run block grades. Against the Vikings, Giants, Jets, Bills, Cowboys, and Bears Peterman was deeply in the red: –7.0, –3.7, –2.7, –2.7, –6.3, and –2.8. By comparison, Sims’ two worst grades were –5.6 and –3.7 in weeks 9 and 10, and the rest of his negatives didn’t dip lower than Peterman’s did.

Peterman's stats are slightly rosier: allowing 4 sacks and 5 hits puts him just a little below average. His 123.0 snaps-per-sack-or-pressure average ranked him 55th out of 82. Same story with pressures; on the average, Peterman went 48 snaps between allowing pressures, a little worse than the league mean of 62. That, combined with his 13 called penalties against (1 declined/reversed), completes the picture: Stephen Peterman was completely overwhelmed at the point of attack, but fought and scrapped and . . . well, cheated as often as possible to protect his quarterback.

Bottom Line: Peterman turned in incredibly consistent, strongly positive grades in 2009, and was clearly hampered by a laundry list of dings this season. We can reasonably expect a major bounceback in 2011—and, like Sims, he is under contract through 2014.

Dylan Gandy is just a guy, but he’s just a guy who keeps managing to stay on the roster. The 6’-3,” 295-pounder can play either guard or center, and it’s that versatility that’s kept him around.  He’s 29, though, isn’t being groomed to replace Raiola, and is actually older than the two young veteran starting guards the Lions have locked up.

Bottom Line: I see “starting Center of the future” as a major need for the Lions, and Gandy doesn’t seem to be it. He may have a hard time hanging on as a backup if the Lions do draft a C or C/G swing player in the middle rounds of this draft.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions are set for starting guards for 2011, and the forseeable future. Gandy is a decent, versatile backup, but his spot could (and likely should) be taken by a developing center.

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Detroit Lions Offensive Line Analysis: Part I

In the 1993 offseason, the Lions attempted to compensate for the tragic death of All-Pro guard Eric Andolsek—and freak paralysis of G Mike Utley—by signing three free agent linemen: Dave Lutz, Bill Fralic, and Dave Richards.  I clearly remember the newspaper headline that echoed a quote from a coach: “Lions Add ‘900 Pounds of Beef’.”  The gambit didn’t work, and the Lions have been frantically sandbagging the offensive line ever since.

Those who’ve been reading since the beginning might remember that I wrote about that memory last spring, while contemplating the additions of Gosder Cherilus, George Foster, Jon Jansen, Ephraim Salaam, and Daniel Loper over the preceding year.  Four of those five are gone—yet I’ve noted several times this season that the offensive line is better than you think it is, especially in pass protection.  Many have rampantly bashed Cherilus, as well as usual suspects like Backus and Raiola all year long.  Many and called for drastic action to overhaul the offensive line, theoretically to protect the Lions’ investment in Matthew Stafford.  Few, however, seem to realize that the Lions’ O-line is keeping its quarterbacks clean as well as any in the NFL.

Sean Jensen, Bears writer for the Chicago Sun-Times, posted the latest “New York Life Protection Index” stats, while lamenting the Bears’ position on that table (dead last).  This metric, per the creators:

“ . . . was created by sports information leader STATS to provide a composite gauge for this undervalued component of the game. While the New York Life Protection Index is calculated using a proprietary formula, the fundamentals are comprised of the length of a team’s pass attempts combined with penalties by offensive linemen, sacks allowed and quarterback hurries and knockdowns.”

Okay, so check out the New York Life Protection Index, and check out where the Lions rate: ninth.  Ninth?  Yes: ninth-best in the NFL, first-best in the NFC North.  Yes, in pass protection.  Yes, the Lions.  I’m tempted to crow about how all of my suspicions have been confirmed, and how my own eyes have been seeing the truth while all others’ have been clouded with lies and suspicion, and on and on and on, except . . .

The Colts are first.  The Colts, whose profound struggles on the offensive line are a matter of fact, are ranked #1 by this metric.  This reminds me of that year the Lions allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL, at least in part because Joey Harrington was throwing the ball into the stands on every third dropback.  Something similar has to be happening here with Peyton Manning and the Colts’ patchwork line . . . but how do we capture it?  Let’s examine another advanced offensive line metric, one that’s far less of a “black box.”

Football Outsiders’ Offensive Line Rankings feature a variety of interesting stats.  First and foremost, there’s Adjusted Line Yards, which their attempt to mathematically isolate yards gained because the offensive line got good push from yard gained because the running back broke a play open.  The mathematical methods Football Outsiders uses to isolate offensive line yards are detailed here, but for now let’s just see how the Lions stack up.

• Adjusted Line Yards: 3.25 per carry, ranked dead last in the NFL.
• Power Success: 59%, ranked 17th in the NFL.
• Stuffed: 25%, ranked 27th in the NFL.
• 2nd Level Yards: 1.00, ranked 25th in the NFL.
• Open Field Yards: 0.43, ranked 28th in the NFL.

So, the Lions’s offensive line isn’t doing great; it’s actually the worst run-blocking line in football.  Detroit running backs have the least daylight to work with of any in the NFL.  This, unlike the Colts being #1 in pass protection, jibes with what we’ve seen on the field.  But Football Outsiders’ ALY stat can drill down even deeper.  They’ve actually broken down the Adjusted Line Yards by gap: “A” gap (between center and either guard), left and right “B” gap (between guard and tackle), and “C” gap (outside tackle/between OT & TE).  Here’s what they came up with for the Lions:

		L END		L TACKLE		C/GUARD		R TACKLE		R END
RNK	TEAM	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk
32	DET	4.65	13	3.7	25	3.33	30	2.73	32	1.61	32
-	NFL	4.31	-	4.19	-	4.06	-	4.03	-	4.06	-

This table has two rows: the Lions, and the NFL average.  Working from left to right, we see that runs to the outside of Jeff Backus, or between Backus and the tight end, get the benefit of slightly-above-average run blocking.  Runs between Backus and Sims have get below-average help from the line.  Runs on either side of Dominic Raiola get poor help from the offensive line, runs between Stephen Peterman and Gosder Cherilus are at a steep disadvantage to the rest of the NFL, and . . . well, just don’t run to the outside of Gosder.

This is both surprising and unsurprising.  First, remember when the Lions passed on Michael Oher to take Brandon Pettigrew?  Some subscribed to the notion that Pettigrew’s size and blocking would result in improved pass protection and running lanes anyway—getting “offensive line help” without actually drafting a lineman.  Football Outsiders’ stats show this is exactly what’s happening, which is surprising and exciting.  What isn’t surprising is the total lack of daylight in the A gaps.  Stephen Peterman has been playing hurt, and Lord do we ever see it here.  And Gosder?  I had no idea the Lions were struggling so much to run behind him.  These numbers are flatly appalling for a 6’-7”, 325-pound RT with a legendary mean streak.

Okay, so the left side of the Lions' line is average at run blocking, and the center and right side are butt-naked last in the NFL.  So how did the Lions end up with the ninth-best offensive line by the New York Life Protection Index?  Well, because that looked only at pass protection.  Well, what does Football Outsiders have to say about pass blocking?

Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR)/Sack Rate: Sack Rate represents sacks divided by pass plays, which include passes, sacks, and aborted snaps. It is a better measure of pass blocking than total sacks because it takes into account how often an offense passes the ball. Adjusted Sack Rate adds adjustments for opponent quality, as well as down and distance (sacks are more common on third down, especially third-and-long).

The Lions rank 4th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, having allowed just 24 sacks while passing constantly against tough competition.  Above them are the Saints, the Giants, and . . . at number one . . . the Colts.  Okay, so this metric has its limitations, too—it’s still derived almost entirely from sacks.  Clearly, we can’t just measure pass protection by sacks allowed, because sacks are as often taken by quarterbacks as they are allowed by the offensive line.  Aaron Schatz ended the 2003 “Fun With Sacks” article where he conceived of Adjusted Sack Rate with the following plea:

Consider this a public request: If you have an idea for another statistic to measure pass blocking/pass rushing, please let me know. The never-ending quest for knowledge marches forward!

Coming up in Part II: we march.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,jeff backus,rob sims,dominic raiola,stephen peterman,gosder cherilus,football outsiders,analysis

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Old Mother Hubbard: the Detroit Lions’ 2010 NFL Draft Shopping List

But, with the draft upon us, I have to sum up the Lions’ needs.  It only makes sense: if the Lions are restocking the cupboard, they need a shopping list, right?

Josh over at Roar of the Lions came up with the perfect description of how the Lions' front office drafts: "BATFAN," or Best Available That Fits A Need. The idea is that you're taking the best available player, but only if that player fits a perceived need. This doesn't involve RANKING said needs. If there are four available players that all fit a roster niche, the one getting drafted will be the best player, not the one fans might think is most needed.

This is why Brandon Pettigrew got taken over a middle linebacker at 1.20 last year: TE, though not a position most fans cared about, was manned solely by Casey FitzSimmons and Will Heller. A two-way TE, a sweet blocker with soft hands, was a definite need, and Brandon Pettigrew was graded by the Lions to be a better player than any MLB on the board.

Of course, nobody outside of Allen Park's innermost sanctum knows what the Lions' true draft grades are. With what we know of the schemes the coaches run, and the qualities they look for, and the performance of the players still on the roster from 2009, we can at least take a stab at what the Lions consider to be their needs.

When it comes to Quarterback, Matthew Stafford is the franchise quarterback, the alpha and the omega, the present and future king. The Lions brought in veteran Shaun Hill to serve as the primary backup, and he's a good fit. With Scott Linehan having coached the eight-season veteran during his formative years in Minnesota, Hill and his lifetime 23/11 TD/INT ratio should walk in the door a trustworthy backup. At 30 years of age, with only 16 career starts, Hill also has a lot of tread on the tires; if he does indeed work out, the Lions will be set at quarterback for years.

I don't know if this is good news or bad news for perennial underdog Drew Stanton. One one hand, Drew is a second-round pick entering his fourth year, and most would be very surprised if he's any higher than third on the depth chart come Week 1. On the other, he has shown a few flashes here and there, and this will be his first time playing for the same OC two seasons in a row. The bottom line is that the Lions could use a developmental quarterback to push Stanton in camp.

At Runningback, the Lions have made it absolutely clear that they plan to upgrade over incumbent (but injured) starter Kevin Smith.  They desire a back that has the explosion, deep speed, and big-play ability that Smith lacks.  From my position on the couch, there'd be a natural fit: draft an explosive scatback with questions about his ability to run between the tackles, let him show what he can do all summer, and then when Smith comes back you have an effective tandem.

I don't think the Lions agree with me.

It's been said that the Lions were strongly considering drafting Beanie Wells if he'd fallen to them at the top of the second round.  Given what we know of the Lions' approach; that they want to build a power-running team, it becomes clear: they’re not looking for a "lighting" to Kevin Smith's "thunder".  They won’t be drafting a Reggie Bush-type jitterbug.  No, they want Fast Kevin Smith: a power back with speed, not a speed back.

For what it's worth, I thought Maurice Morris ran very, very well last season--in fact, he was much more effective than Smith.  If the Lions chose to roll with him, 2nd-year scatback Aaron Brown, and signee DeDe Dorsey, I think they’d get by fine until Smith returned—and the Lions would probably agree.  The Lions’ intent with drafting a runningback isn’t to upgrade their backups—it’s to upgrade their starter.  The Lions want to draft a starting power back with speed.

Wide Receiver, the bane of the Lions' drafts, may finally be set.  Calvin Johnson is the most physically wideout in football.  Free agent signee Nate Burleson is a favorite of OC Scott Linehan’s—and is extremely dangerous when working in the space created by a complementary deep threat.  Last year’s #2, Bryant Johnson, #3, Dennis Northcutt, and 2009 third-round draftee Derrick Williams round out a very nice five-deep set.  I don’t believe they’re thrilled with Johnson, Northcutt, or Williams as long-term solutions, so perhaps they draft a developmental player—but with the lack of 4- and 5-WR sets in Linehan’s offense, they won’t carry six receivers on the roster.  The Lions may or may not be looking for a developmental wide receiver.

With 2009 first-round pick Brandon Pettigrew coming back, the Lions know who their #1 Tight End is.  He’s a strong blocker, who was developing into one of Stafford’s favorite targets before he got hurt.  After him, there’s Will Heller, who was brought in to be a pure blocker—but surprised with his soft, clutch hands.  Dan Gronkowski and Jake Nordin are both young, strong, developmental blocking tight ends.

With the retirement of Casey FitzSimmons, the Lions no longer have a receiving tight end with speed.  Given the way Linehan likes to use two-TE sets, the Lions could use a developmental athletic, pass-catching tight end.

At Offensive Tackle, the Lions have stalwart LT Jeff Backus, and 2008 first-round RT Gosder Cherilus.  Backus, of course, has been a lightning rod for fan ire, with his outlandish contracts and inconsistent level of play.  However, his durability, toughness, and intelligence have kept him in the starting lineup for 144 straight games—through four head coaches, a mess of offensive coordinators, and 111 losses.  Coming off of his best season yet, with HC Jim Schwartz saying he was worthy of a Pro Bowl nomination, it’s clear that the Lions don’t see LT as a need—for 2010.

Cherilus has been even more inconsistent in his tumultuous two-year career.  He’s been “starting” and “benched” and back again more times than I can count, and every time I’ve thought he looks like a star in the making, he’s immediately committed an idiotic mistake that kills the team.  I have no idea whether the Lions see Cherilus as a long-term solution at RT, and neither do you (unless you are Martin Mayhew or Jim Schwartz in which case thanks for reading, and what are you doing reading blogs get back to work). 

With the release of swing G/T Daniel Loper, the Lions are relying on veteran Jon Jansen to back up both LT and RT . . . and Jansen wasn’t considered to be athletic enough to pass protect on the left, even in his prime.  The Lions need a left tackle, who could be groomed to replace Jeff Backus.

The Lions’ Offensive Guard situation is one of the most interesting on the team.  The only sure thing is RG Stephen Peterman, who played very well until his ankle injury.  On the left side, trade conquest Rob Sims, heretofore of the Seahawks, will be starting—but he’ll be playing on a one-year RFA tender offer.  Whether the Lions extend him to a long-term deal, or let him walk in 2011, could depend on the two Lions (and former Texas Tech Red Raiders) who just signed their own RFA tenders: Manny Ramirez and Dylan Gandy.

Ramirez, finally off the bench after languishing under Marinelli, was constantly in and out of the lineup, platooning with the now-released Loper at right guard.  The fact that they tendered him shows they still believe in his potential--but then, they tendered Loper, too, and he's now gone.  Gandy did okay, but not great, in relief of Peterman.  Gandy has the ability to play center, too, so he provides some versatility.

The Lions are set at guard for 2010: Sims and Peterman, with Ramirez and Gandy backing them up.  However, if the Lions don’t think either of the reserves has a long-term future as a starter, I could easily see the Lions drafting a guard.  The Lions need a long-term answer at left guard—but they may already have one.

At Center, the Lions have the same answer they've had for nine years: Dominic Raiola.  Though, like Backus, a popular punching bag for his youthful mistakes, Raiola has been a consistently tough, intelligent, athletic presence in the middle of the line.  He’s not a mauler, but he’s excellent at the second level.  Therefore, he’s not a perfect fit for what the Lions want to do in the run game, and he will start to decline in the next few years—but for now he’s solid, and Gandy can back him up.  The Lions could use a power-blocking center, to groom behind Raiola.

So, here's the shopping list:

• A developmental quarterback who could push Stanton in camp.
• A starting, three-down power runningback with speed.
• A developmental pass-catching tight end, with athleticism and speed
• A left tackle, who could be groomed to replace Jeff Backus.
• A power-blocking center, to be groomed behind Raiola.

There are also two positions that are filled for 2010, but—depending on the Lions’ opinion—could be needs for 2011 and beyond:

• A wide reciever with speed, possibly with special teams usefulness.
• A long-term answer at left guard, if the Lions don't extend Rob Sims.

. . . defense coming soon!

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,nfl,nfl draft,team needs,2010 nfl draft

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Rob Sims to the Lions, Martin Mayhew for the Win

  The Lions have traded a fifth-round pick, plus reserve-roster DE Robert Henderson, to the Seahawks for LG Rob Sims and a seventh-round pick.  The acquisition of Sims, a 26-year-old left guard with three seasons atop the Seahawks’ depth chart, for a fifth-rounder would have qualified as a steal.  Getting a seventh-round pick in return for Henderson, himself a 2008 sixth-rounder who’s never made an active roster, is gravy.

As I wrote last week, the Seahawks were willing to deal Sims so cheaply for two reasons: One, he’s a poor fit for new Seahawks OL coach Alex Gibbs’ zone blocking system; two, he’s a restricted free agent on a one-year tender, who will walk after this season without a long-term deal.

That brings us to the draft.  On first blush, this eliminates Russell Okung as a possibility for the Lions—with well-compensated starters at LT, LG, C, RG, and RT, paying Okung $40,000,000 to either ride the bench, or relegate one of those starters to the bench, makes no sense whatsoever.

However, Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com thinks Martin Mayhew's about to make no sense. Since Sims has signed his RFA tender, by definition a one-year deal, the Lions have nothing invested in him but a fifth-round pick.  If they don’t sign him to a long term extension before the draft, then Okung can sit on the bench for one year, and then force Backus to slide inside for 2011.

Kowalski correctly points out, as I have over the past few months, that the Lions are drafting for the long-term; the 2009 and 2010 draft classes will become the core of the team for 2011 and beyond:

But drafting a player with a #2 overall pick? That’s a massive investment. If the Lions stand pat and draft Okung—or Suh, or Berry, or whoever—then that player must be a cornerstone of the roster for years to come. If the Lions are convinced that one of those players is going to be a perfect fit for the team, on and off the field, with Hall of Fame upside . . . well, they’re going to take him, Chester Pitts be damned.

Now, Sims is not Pitts--he's much younger, just entering his prime.  But if Sims isn’t extended before the draft, then there’s no reason to believe he’s going to be here in 2011, and therefore no reason to believe the Lions won’t draft an offensive tackle.

Still, I think the Lions don’t draft Okung at 1.2.  I don’t think he’s the right type of player for what Scott Linehan wants to do on offense, and I don’t think that the Lions want to spend that much money into three offensive tackles—or really, spend 1.2 money at all.  I think they want to trade back, and take a tackle who’s a better fit, like Oklahoma’s Trent Williams, or Iowa’s Bryan Bulaga.

Not only would one of these players be a better fit for the Lions, but if they were drafted at, say, Seattle's 1.6 spot, they'd cost practically half the price that Okung at 1.2 would.  Seattle, as we know, is desperate to replace aging LT Walter Jones, and could certainly use an upgrade at RT as well.  Seattle’s clearly not afraid to spend money to reshape their franchise in new HC Pete Carroll’s image, and they’re clearly not afraid to make deals with Martin Mayhew and the Lions.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,seattle seahawks,rob sims,russell okung,pete carroll

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