Old Mother Hubbard: The Wide Receivers

Finishing up the Old Mother Hubbard series, post-draft, seems anti-climatic. However, there’s plenty of offseason left (maybe too much), and this cupboard isn’t done being restocked. To that end, we dig into the Pro Football Focus grades for wide receivers:

In this case, “Pass” refers to their grades in the passing game, i.e. their receiving performance. “Run” refers to their performance when running the football (on reverses, etc.). Unlike tight ends, run blocking and pass blocking are consolidated into “Blocking,” as receivers rarely pass block. The bright orange line represents Brandon Lloyd, the wideout who turned in the best overall grade. His +24 is predicated almost entirely on his +23.4 receiving grade (the other dimensions have little variation, and therefore little impact on the overall grade). Should we be surprised that Darrius Heyward-Bey is bringing up the rear? His –14 overall grade is the worst of any NFL wideout.

There’s a little thing in research called “confirmation bias,” where you seek out objective facts that confirm your preconceptions. That the Lions drafted a speedy receiver with their second pick suggests the Lions saw a need that had to be filled. I simply have to acknowledge this: I’m curious to see why the Lions thought they should pick a wideout so high, especially one whose game superficially matches Nate Burleson’s. I’m going to do this straight, but keep an eye out for signals that there’s a need to stretch the field.

The Lions’ WR corps is the most divergent unit on the team. Most of the other positions’ players are clustered around the thick black AVERAGE line, with only a few strong deviations in either direction. However, Calvin Johnson was PFF’s third-best graded receiver in 2010, with a very strong +14 overall grade. That was powered by a +14.5 receiving grade, and only having a single penalty called against him all year. He also had a (very) slightly above-average rushing grade.

Surprisingly, Megatron’s blocking grade was awful. He turned in a –3.1 blocking mark, well below the NFL average of –1.27, and ranked 94th out of 110 receivers. We don’t play Megatron to block, but you’d think a dude who has half a foot and sixty pounds on most corners could do better than that without breaking a sweat.

Statistically, Calvin caught 77 of 131 passes thrown at him; his percentage of passes caught is actually a little below-average at 58.8% (NFL average: 59.6%). Part of this is definitely due to system and quarterbacking. The top receiving percentage guys are typically slot receivers in pass-first, multi-WR offenses featuring quality quarterbacks; Megatron is a #1 wideout in a conventional offense driven by very inconsistent quarterback play last year. Still, I’d expected Calvin to be better than the mean at getting to, and hauling in, footballs.

Perhaps it's in the way they use him? Megatron was thrown at once every 7.8 snaps, exactly the NFL average. His yards per reception, 14.5, is definitely a notch above average, 13.2. But his touchdowns . . . well, his 13 12 vastly outstrip the league average of 4. It was my eyeball observation that the Lions tended to move between the 30s with passes to slot WRs, TEs, and RBs, then take shots at the endzone with Calvin once they got close. I divided receptions by touchdowns and . . . yup! Megatron was 10th in the NFL with 6.4 receptions per touchdown (4th with 5.9 if you count the Chicago Robbery). If the Lions were throwing to Calvin, they were often taking a shot at the end zone.

Bottom Line: Calvin Johnson was one of the NFL’s best receivers in 2010, despite being targeted the average number of times, primarily in the red zone, by a rotating cast of quarterbacks. If he and Matthew Stafford play all 16 games in 2011, expect Megatron to be #1 by a long shot.

The neon-green line a little ways inside of AVERAGE is Nate Burleson, the Lions’ second-splashiest free agent acquisition of 2010. Burleson turned in a –2.7 receiving grade, which couldn’t be offset by his run grade (+1.6, tied with Devin Hester for third-best in the NFL), or his relatively clean penalty grade. His very-slightly-below-average blocking performance (-1.4) didn’t help either.

Burleson’s negative grade didn’t come entirely from dropped passes, as Brandon Pettigrew’s clearly did. Burleson was ranked 56th in snaps-per-drop, with 17.0 (avg.: 17.6)—not great, but barely off the NFL median and mean. His YAC was excellent; 18th-best in the NFL with 5.6. He also made a defender miss on a post-catch tackle 8 times on just 55 receptions—the 21st-highest rate in the NFL (6.9 Rec./MT; NFL avg. 10.8).

That is the end of the good news for Burleson—who, outside of two great games against the Jets and Dolphins (+2.9, +3.4), turned in neutral or weakly negative grades the rest of the year (none worse than his –1.8 week one; most not nearly that low). He also, despite his well-above-average YAC rate, could only muster 11.4 yards per reception. Think about that: he ran for an average of 5.6 yards after every catch, but only gained 11.4 yards on an average catch. He caught the ball an average of 5.8 yards downfield! The picture this all paints is of a slightly-below-average receiver who struggles to get open deep—but becomes a genuine threat once the ball is in his hands.

Bottom Line: Nate Burleson proved to be a valuable asset, often getting open short and manufacturing yards in space when there were none to be had. However, he failed to provide a credible threat across from Calvin Johnson, instead carving out a niche in underneath the coverage. “Recepticon” has a future in this offense, but it will be much brighter if he can work in the space created by a legitimate deep threat.

Bryant Johnson is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Unfortunately, PFF’s grades are not kind to him. Johnson’s –13.1 overall grade is second-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Darrius Heyward-Bey. His –13.5 receiving grade is at the very bottom; it’s only his total lack of penalties called that pull him up above Heyward-Bey. His 37.5% of targets caught is also second-worst in the league; dropping 7 passes on just 48 targets didn’t help.

Here’s one positive tidbit for Johnson, though: his 4.2 catches per missed tackle means he was the third-hardest WR to bring down in the NFL. Should he happen to catch the ball, Bryant Johnson is tough to stop.

Bottom Line: Bryant Johnson struggled mightily to catch the ball in 2010, as he did in 2009. Though his body type and tool set would be the perfect complement to draw coverage away from Megatron and open up space for Burleson, his inability to catch the ball strips him of any credible threat—and of any real chance of returning for 2010.

Derrick Williams is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Williams's commitment to giving back to the Detroit community is as impressive as it is unheralded. Unfortunately, PFF’s graders took a dim view of his 2010 performance, as well. Williams, whose 154 snaps didn’t qualify him for the 25% cutoff, only saw time in weeks 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, and 13.

His –6 overall rating and –4.8 receiving rating didn’t come from doing a bad job catching the ball. The problem was, he was never open: in 154 snaps played, Lions quarterbacks only targeted him three times. Astonishingly, that’s the exact same number of penalty flags he drew (though one was called back).

Bottom Line: Despite being, by all appearances, a great guy and a good teammate, Williams’ single reception for 7 yards was probably the former #1 recruit in America’s last as a Lion.

SHOPPING LIST: Though no one identified WR as a need prior to the draft, had I managed to crank this one out I’d have been screaming from the mountaintops about this one, too. Calvin Johnson is a flat-out stud, Nate Burleson is a quality slot ninja, and after that the Lions have two guys who’ve proven they can’t help, and practice squadders like Brian Clark and Tim Toone. The need for a wideout with legitimate downfield speed and NFL hands to go with it was, in fact, desperate—and the Lions may have filled it with Titus Young.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,2011 nfl draft,calvin johnson,nate burleson,titus young,boise state,team needs

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Tinderbox: Nate Burleson, and the MLS In Detroit

When Kyle Vanden Bosch was signed, we heard a lot about how his nonstop motor, both on- and off-field, would set the tempo for the Lions’ young defensive linemen.  We heard a lot about how his intense play, intense practice tempo, and intense personality would teach the youngsters how to do it the right way—and, almost regardless of Vanden  Bosch’s own production, would make the defensive line better.

When Nate Burleson signed, most of the talk centered around his production and his compensation—we heard almost nothing about his intangibles.  Well, if you’ve read Tom Kowalski’s latest piece on Mlive.com, then you know  that Burleson’s arrival has catalyzed the transformation of the wide receiver corps.  What was once a frustrated Calvin Johnson surrounded by underperforming castoffs has become a lively, competitive group that sees themselves among the best units in the league.

One of the fun things about Twitter is following athletes, and seeing what they say to each other—and by following @Nate13Burleson, @bigplaycj, @1BryantJohnson, and @DWheelz12, I’ve seen the off-field esprit de wide receiver corps building all offseason long.  It doesn’t surprise me in the least that the wideouts are taking that same camaraderie between the sidelines, as well.  Handshakes, TD celebrations, friendly competitions, are all a part of building confidence, building unity, building excitement, and fostering a winning attitude—finally, changing the “losing culture” we’ve heard so much about over the past decade(s).

There were whispers last year that Megatron was becoming “Lionized” last year, losing motivation and focus because of the crushing futility of trying to win in Detroit.  Well, maybe being Lionized can have a different meaning now: attitude, confidence, fun, swagger.  Yeah, I said swagger.

Tonight, on ESPN2 (and Univision), the US Men’s National Team (USMNT) will be taking on Brazil.  This’ll be the first time we get to see our national team in action since the World Cup, and I’m interested to see what the national excitement level for this match is.  Of course, the old home of the Lions, the Silverdome, recently hosted a match between two elite international pro teams, AC Milan and Panathinaikos FC, billed the “Match of the Titans.”  Announced attendance was over 30,000, proving that there’s a significant fan base in Michigan.  The Silverdome ownership group is hoping to lure the MLS to Detroit with a radical makeover of the building, and I, for one, hope they pull it off.

I’m sitting here holding a registration form for Parks & Rec soccer for my eldest, & I’m about to go turn it in.  I never played soccer myself, and know very little about the game—but something about the international flavor of the sport has lured me and my kids in.  With the Tigers an annual exercise in hope and heartbreak, it’d be awesome to have another Detroit team to cheer on during the interminable wait for the NFL.  So, watch the USMNT tonight at 8:00 on ESPN2.  Go check out MotorCitySupporters.com.  Add @MCSDetroit to your Twitter feed, and join the grassroots effort to bring MLS to Detroit.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,mls detroit,soccer,nate burleson,calvin johnson

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the first forty eight

One of my and Mrs. Ty's guiltiest pleasures is watching late-night crime reality shows, like Forensics Files.  One of the many such shows beamed into my home from low orbit is called "The First 48", and its premise is that a homicide detective's chances of solving a case are cut in half if he or she can't pull it together in the first 48 hours.  The show then breathlessly follows a team of law enforcement agents from the time a homicide is reported, all the way through the first 48 hours of the investigation.  I have no idea if the quoted statistic is true or not, but as I sit at the computer tonight, just minutes before the first 48 hours of free agency draw to a close, I can't help but note the parallels.

In the days leading up to free agency, there's a wierd period of a few days where agents and players and teams are all doing an intricate dance, feeling each other out, hush-hush, while publicly saying nothing.  Why?  Because, of course, the league forbids any such contact until the clock strikes midnight at the end of the league year, and the free-agents-to-be become actual free agents.  Usually, there are rumblings about who might be headed where, but this year the 'tampering' escalated to unignorable levels.  This year's biggest fish, Albert Haynesworth--a man who many Lions fans were hoping would take less to rejoin The Grandmaster up here--was reported to be off the market three days before there was even supposed to be a market.

Many Lions fans and observers were irrationally hoping that the Lions would be making a big splash in the early hours, depsite repeated quotes from the men in charge that that wouldn't be happening.  Don't ask me why the Lions blogologue exploded with hate when there were no new signings as of noon on Friday; this was all foretold well in advance.  I honestly wonder who, besides Haynesworth, people were expecting the Lions to break the bank for?  However, soon there were rumblings of a coming meeting with WR Nate Washington and RB Derrick Ward, and--yes!--OG Derrick Dockery.  Then came the first slap in the face: News surfaced that Mayhew had brokered a deal with Carolina for CB Ken Lucas--but Lucas immediately nixed it, saying he wouldn't report if he was traded to the Lions.  As I said at the time, those of you out there rooting for 0-16, well, the weed of crime bears bitter fruit, you old hag.

I was both thrilled to hear this--the Lions are moving swiftly to address what I percieve to be the most glaring need, with a player I've long admired!--and crestfallen: they couldn't do it because dude would rather not play than play here.  It was right then that I realized how far uphill Martin Mayhew had to go.  Still, he filled one need (#2 RB/third down back) with the signing of Maurice Morris, and with Derrick Dockery and Nate Washington in town, I thought we had a great chance of plugging all our biggest holes on offense--save QB--without breaking the bank or giving up anything in a trade.  As I left work, I was bouyed by the notion that Mayhew saw all the holes, that he was filling the ones he could responsibly fill responsibly, and appeared to be patching up the offense and preparing to raze the defense and rebuild it from scratch.

Imagine my suprise when I turned on my radio and heard Brian VanOchten, of the Grand Rapids Press, on Bill Simonson's "Huge" show, spewing ignorant, exasperated tripe about how the lack of a splashy signing meant it was the "same old Lions".  Odd, but I seem to remember Matt Millen making a while lot of splashy free agent signings that amounted to precisely jack and squat over eight long, painful years of failure.  No, I think Mayhew's initial approach--the exact one he said he'd take from the get-go--was the right one.

Oh, but just because he didn't make a splashy free-agent sign, didn't mean he wasn't about to make waves.  News broke that the Dockery "free agent visit" was actually part of an accidentally unconsummated trade (gee, thanks Buffalo!), resulting in Dockery returning to the team that drafted him, the Redskins--who, somehow, still had some money left?  Undeterred, Mayhew managed to work a stunner of a deal in his third attempt.  He dealt Jon Kitna to the Cowboys for--at least--CB Anthony Henry, a legit veteran starting cornerback.  Admittedly, he's coming off a down year, but he's still an enormous upgrade over Travis Fisher as a #1 CB.  Mayhew also filled some depth with WR Bryant Johnson, who would make an okay inurance policy if neither Nate Washington nor T.J. Houshmandzadeh will sign here--and an awesome #3 if one of them does sign.  He also addressed CB depth and the lack of specialized special teamers by signing ex-Titan CB Eric King.

Finally, we come to the real whiz-bang deal of the evening: hot on the heels of the reports of Matt Cassel being traded to the Chiefs, several sources reported that the Lions had dangled a "flip this house" scenario to the Broncos: We'll get you Matt Cassell if you'll give us Jay Cutler.  First of all, the fact that this even reached the dicussion stage should put to rest any visions some had of a diaper-clad Martin Mayhew, sitting in a high chair at the Big Boy table, crying for his mama because widdle ole him don't know what ta do.  Second of all, trading for Cassell--to flip him for Jay Cutler?!?  Not only would our quarterback picture have gone from one of the gloomiest to one of the brightest (Cutler the starter, Culpepper the veteran backup, Stanton the project), the proposed chain of trades would have been plain crazy, as would have been the press coverage and fan reaction.  Crazier still is this: the fact that the deal was even discussed at all infurated Cutler--to the point where he is referring to his Broncos career in the past tense to the Denver media.  The latest as the "first 48" come to a close?  That the deal may not be dead, and the Lions may still be in the hunt.

What's the verdict?  In the matter of Lions Fans versus Martin Mayhew, on one count of being a real NFL GM, me the jury finds the defendant guilty.  Mystery solved.

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