Mikel Leshoure Out For Year; Lions Doomed Forever

Well, it was bound to happen. From Mikel Leshoure’s Meet the Cubs scouting report:

LeShoure reminds me of another Lions running back, one who stood a very similar 6’-1”, 224: James Stewart. Stewart, like LeShoure, made a lot of hay between the tackles—and if Stewart lacked a certain je ne sais quoi in comparison, he probably hit a little bit harder. Both had excellent acceleration into “good” straight-line speed, both played faster than their reputation or clock times would suggest. Stewart, though, struggled mightily to stay healthy . . . let’s hope LeShoure doesn’t have that problem.

This morning Mikel Leshoure ruptured his Achilles tendon, ending his 2011 Lions campaign, maybe his career, definitely the Lions’ playoff chances for the next five years, and also every reason you had to ever be happy again. Or, you know, not.

The culture of hype surrounding the NFL draft, and NFL draft picks, leads us to believe that every rookie drafted in the first few rounds should make an immediate impact on the bottom line. That every team should be counting on its first few picks to step in and excel. That each and every talented rookie will blaze the trail to your teams’ glorious new era of dominance and winning. Only a handful of rookies achieve anything like this kind of instant success in any given year, yet we all go on believing it will happen with next season’s first hundred picks.

Mikel Leshoure was drafted to fill a need; the Lions will miss him. Here’s another paragraph from that scouting report:

Mikel LeShoure looks to be an excellent complement to Jahvid Best, much the way Stewart combined with Fred Taylor in Jacksonville. This isn’t a “thunder and lightning” situation, like Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne, or Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott. Some folks had LeShoure rated as their #1 workhorse back due to Ingram’s injury concerns; he and Best will doubtlessly find a mutually beneficial workload ratio. Together, they’ll spell each other, make each other more effective, and back each other up—the Lions’ offense shouldn’t ever be without a tailback that can keep defenses honest.

So, you want to know, who will the Lions add to fill that role? Nobody. Nobody else will fill that role. Anyone who can be 1b to Jahvid Best’s 1a is on another roster. There are “goal line backs” and “big backs” and used-up “veteran backs” with names you’ve heard of, but anyone who’s available right now likely won’t be as good as Maurice Morris, who grades out as a sightly-below-average heavy-rotation running back. The Lions had a need for Mikel Leshoure—that doesn’t mean they have a need for Clinton Portis.

After Best, Leshoure, and Morris, the Lions have tailback Aaron Brown, and fullbacks Jerome Felton, Matt Clapp, on the roster, as well as H-back Preston Dial. Those four guys were likely fighting for one, or possibly two spots—Leshoure going on IR means two, or possibly three, of those guys will be kept. This coaching staff seems to love Felton as a runner (when he isn’t fumbling), so he may be the “goal line back” going forward.

Part of building depth is understanding that you may have to use that depth. Though the lockout injury bug has struck the Lions’ “luxury pick” rookies hard, the starting 22 looks essentially the same: the pressure is on Ndamukong Suh, Jahvid Best, and Nate Burleson to succeed, just as it was last season—just because their rookie backups didn’t hit the ground running doesn’t mean the teams’ fortunes don’t still rest on their shoulders.

The Lions' season is not lost. What the Lions have lost is some breathing room, some, margin for error, and the lottery ticket stub that Young, Leshoure or Fairley each represent. Last year, they won the Mega Millions with Suh; don’t think that just because the Powerball didn’t  bounce their way in 2011 that these kids won’t become productive Lions soon. And, just because Mikel will be “pressing the pause button,” as Jahvid Best said, don’t think that you need to hit “Eject” on your hopes. The Lions’ short-tem picture has not dimmed; they will still win more games than they lose.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,mikel leshoure,jahvid best

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Running Backs

Since Pro Football Focus doesn’t normalize their quarterback data—and, of course, we knew the Lions’ quarterback picture for 2011—this will be the last position group I apply the Old Mother Hubbard treatment to. Without further ado, the chart:

The bright red line is Jamaal Charles, who tied with Adrian Peterson for the best “Run” grade (+23.0)—but Charles’s +3.4 blocking grade is 8th-best in the NFL, while All Day’s –6.8 blocking grade is tied for last place with Chris Johnson, so Charles is “in charge” of the running backs. The dark brick red line is Tim Hightower, whose –7.3 receiving grade was, by far, the worst handed out to any NFL back last year; it went unredeemed by his +0.6 run grade (in a year where the NFL average run grade was +2.5). The AVERAGE, the thick black line, was soundly positive (+3.14), meaning running back play as a whole seems to be better than it was in 2008 (PFF’s baseline season). Interesting.

Per my emerging standard, I’ve given the highest-graded Lions tailback, Maurice Morris, a nice Lions-y blue. His –0.9 overall grade is well below NFL starter average; he ranked 37th of 58 qualifying tailbacks. His ability to catch the ball is probably underrated; MoMo’s receiving grade was a healthy +1.8, 17th-best. His running was graded out at +0.7, below the league average of +2.5, and ranked just below the median (34th of 58).

Statistically, PFF credited Morris with 336 yards on 90 attempts, an average of 3.7 YpC. That’s almost half a yard less than the NFL average of 4.2; he ranked 45th-best out of 58. I was hoping we’d find out Morris was better-than average when it came to yards after contact, but that’s not the case either. He averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry; by itself that’s a well-below-average number. But, when you look at what percentage of his yards came after contact (62.2%) versus the NFL average (63.2%), he’s getting a typical portion of his gained yards after contact—he’s just not gaining that many yards.

I’ve spoken very highly of Maurice Morris before—indeed, he’s the best, most consistent back the Lions have had throughout the Mayhew Era. Keep in mind, all this doom-and-gloom in the above paragraphs is relative to players with at least 25% of their teams’ snaps. MoMo is a creditable, slightly-below-average starter or above-average rotational/backup NFL tailback. However, he’s not a difference-maker, and it’s not good news that he ended the season as the Lions’ best-graded RB.

BOTTOM LINE: Maurice Morris is a creditable all-around NFL tailback, but he has neither the down-to-down productivity, nor the home-run ability, that the Lions need from their long-term starter. If he sticks around he’ll be a great insurance policy for the Lions’ two young runners. If not, the Lions may look for a similar veteran retread.

My policy in these Old Mother Hubbards is to only review players who I believe can be considered an asset going forward—that is, if they clearly don’t have a place on next year’s roster, there’s no point in assessing them as an . . . asset. Aaron Brown straddles this line. With an overall grade of –3.0 on just 80 snaps, he was technically the second-best-graded 2010 Lions running back not already released. However, his tantalizing speed still can’t be harnessed effectively, because he still makes so many mental mistakes.

BOTTOM LINE: I think the former sixth-rounder is on his last legs here in Detroit. I will be surprised if he makes the roster.

It kills me that Jahvid Best, the Lions’ second 2010 first-round draft pick, was the Lions’ lowest-graded tailback. It kills me even harder that his –6.0 overall grade was third-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Donald Brown and Tim Hightower. His –4.0 running grade was tied for second-worst with Correll Buckhalter; only Thomas Jones’ appalling –9.7 bails Best out from being tied for worst.

I think we’re all well aware of Jahvid’s painful double turf toe injuries; I think we’re also well aware of the Lions’ problems with run blocking. Jahvid did a lot of running into a behind-the-line-of-scrimmage pile; he didn’t get much chance to hit holes hard, like we saw him do in preseason, or rip off long chunks of yardage, like we saw him do in the first few games of the season. He finished with 3.3 yards per carry, 54.5% of which came after contact (1.8).

Towards the end of the season, Jahvid's productivity and grades perked back up. I got a chance to speak with Jahvid about it in between Week 14 and 15, and he told me it was as much, if not more, about overcoming the rookie wall, and being mentally ready to handle the grind of the NFL, as it was physical limitations. Even unable to rest his turf toes, he still turned in positive overall grades in three of the last five games, including a nice 1.2 against Miami (in just 22 snaps). He also failed to be penalized at all—and only fumbled once—with the NFL’s 24th-heaviest workload (573 snaps, NFL avg. 498).

BOTTOM LINE: Jahvid Best showed us plenty of his Jim-Schwartz-up-late-at-night-alone-watching-YouTube-highlight-reels ability in the preseason, in the opening two games, and a little in the last five games. He was clearly hampered by his turf toes, however, and had almost no daylight to work with throughout the middle of the season. Between him getting healthy and Stephen Peterman getting healthy, I expect Jahvid to return to his explosive form. Still, the two questions surrounding Jahvid Best's rookie campaign were, 1) can he stay healthy? and 2) can he handle being an NFL feature back? Unfortunately, Best’s first year points more toward the answers being “No,” and “No,” than “Yes,” and “Yes.”

SHOPPING LIST: Pre-draft, I would have suggested that the Lions would be okay with Best as the returning #1—with the caveat that the Lions would either have to be very comfortable with Maurice Morris seeing significant carries, or acquire a power back to help carry some of the between-the-tackles load. Now that the Lions have drafted Mikel Leshoure, I see Best as the 1a to Leshoure’s 1b—with health, workload, and opponent determining the week-to-week load. Morris would be a fine insurance policy, and has one year left on his contract. If he’s willing to be the third wheel, the Lions will be in very good shape at this position for 2011—and beyond.

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Do the Lions Need To Cut Kevin Smith?

Being a sports fan in 2010 is much, much different than it was in 2000, and much, much, much different than in 1990.  Our access to surging torrents of information, in real time, all the time, everywhere, has shrunken our attention spans and shrunken our perspectives.  Not too long ago, our sports information was found only in agate type on page D7, and our sports opinions were informed only by beat writers, columnists, and Jack the Sales Guy who you always see at the coffee pot on Mondays.  If you wanted to know which camp bodies the Lions had released—and you wouldn’t know who they were to begin with—you’d have to wait a day, and bring your magnifying glass.

It’s no wonder, then, that this time of year always strikes me as odd; great raging debates are had over who deserves the last few spots on the roster—when the last eight guys on the roster, by rule, can’t even dress for games.  Moreover, if there’s anything we should know about these Lions, it’s that being on the final 53 doesn’t mean you’re safe for any length of time.  Literally, hundreds of players have worn Honolulu Blue since Martin Mayhew took over as GM; Guy #53 might be out on his tail the instant some other team cuts a slightly more interesting player.

Imagine my surprise when, in the wake of his lackluster performance against Cleveland, people started calling for Kevin Smith’s job.  He’s done, they say.  He’s hurt, they say.  DeDe Dorsey looks really good, they say.  What good is he?  Why waste a roster spot on Kevin Smith?  I’m reminded of a famous quote from Charles Babbage, when asked if his “difference engine” would produce a correct answer when given incorrect inputs:

"I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question."

Yes, it’s true, Kevin Smith does not look like his typical self—and yes, it’s true that his “typical self” was just a step short of being a complete feature back.  Kevin Smith might be four-to-eight weeks away from being the back that ran 238 times for 976 yards—on the worst team of all time, just two years ago—but a sense of perspective on what that means, please.  Smith ran for more yards in the first five games of his rookie year than DeDe Dorsey has in his first four years in the NFL.

It’s true that the Lions won’t carry five tailbacks and Jerome Felton; as I believe Felton’s a lock at least one, and probably two, tailbacks must go.  Dorsey is an easy cut.  Yes, he’s looked good in preseason, but then so did Tristan Davis; you can sign a DeDe Dorsey during the season if you need to.  For that matter, they may be able to re-sign Dorsey himself!  Aaron Brown is a great special-teamer, and shows true explosion out of the backfield; he’s more than worth keeping around to see what he becomes.  However, he’s far too unreliable in protection to serve as a true #2 tailback.  The question then, is do the Lions cut Smith, cut Morris, or carry four?

I’ve championed Maurice Morris for quite a while; I even argued that his running last year obviated the need to “waste” a high draft pick on a co-starter for Kevin Smith.  However, Morris isn’t the blocker Smith is, and doesn’t have the vision Smith does.  Morris runs hard, and is an underrated athlete—but when Smith’s at his best, he’s a complete tailback;  he runs like a slower, stronger Jahvid Best.

As I said during my guest spot on “The Knee Jerks” internet radio show, Jahvid Best is probably the best reason to keep Smith around, because they run in a similar fashion.  There’s no need to custom-tailor the offense around each back, or change up the playcalling.  When both are healthy, they can simply spell each other, complement each other, sub in and out without skipping a beat.  Best will always be more explosive and more dangerous, Smith will always be stronger, and likely the better blocker—but over the next few years, I see them as an excellent complement to each other.

The question, then, is whether or not the Lions want their #2 tailback to simply be a Guy In Case Of Emergency.  If all they need is a guy they can run out there when Best is too tired to continue, or (God forbid) hurt, Morris will do just fine.  If they intend to have Best be 1A to someone else’s 1B, a cohabitation that would keep Best fresh and explosive for 15+ carries while also keeping a rookie off the field when Stafford needs protection most, then Smith should be that back.

Ultimately, though, every choice is weighed against another.  With Jack Williams’ PUP listing, and Amari Spievey’s switch to safety, there are eight cornerbacks and six safeties on the roster.  If Kevin Smith is kept, one member of the pile of bodies that is the defensive secondary might be yanked out from underneath the others.  Seriously, ask yourself: who will provide the most value to this team?  Kevin Smith, or Ko Simpson?  Kevin Smith, or Dante Wesley?  I know what my thinking is in that situation, but I can’t be so sure of The Grandmaster’s—or even Smith’s.

The Free Press’ Carlos Monarrez quotes Jim Schwartz like so:

"Kevin's a very, very smart football player, and he's going to do the right thing," Schwartz said. "He's got a lot of trust from those things. He just needs -- and it's not so much earning our trust -- he just needs to get his own trust with his knee and everything else.”

“I've known a lot of people to come back from knee injuries and they need to get to the point where it's not even on their agenda anymore; they don't think about it when they're out there. That's a long process. That's not an overnight thing. So he's still working that way."

It sounds like the problem at this point isn’t whether or not his knee is healthy, but whether or not he trusts it yet.  That’s good: once Smith regains that confidence and stops thinking about the knee, he’ll be the Kevin Smith that should be that 1B tailback.  That’s also bad; he might never regain that confidence—and for a tailback whose value is in running hard and blocking strong, playing hesitantly means not playing at all.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,kevin smith,jahvid best,dede dorsey,jim schwartz

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Gameday Post, 2010 Preseason: Lions at Steelers

 
we won’t be seeing a whole lot of this tonight

The starters won’t play for long.  The schemes will be vanilla.  The crowd will be slow to cheer, and quick to head for the exits.  Everything is made up, and the points don’t matter.  But tonight, at 7:30, the Detroit Lions  will play football for the first time this season.

It seems as though this offseason has evaporated, the long bleak period of silence unexpectedly filled with the chatter and buzz of building expectations.  The call for, and drafting of, Ndamukong Suh has stoked the little blue flame.  More and more folks are coming ‘round to see what’s happening in Detroit: Matthew Stafford developing into a real leader, Calvin Johnson coming out of his shell, Jahvid Best primed to explode onto the scene, and Kyle Vanden Bosch cranking up the intensity on one of the most talented defensive lines in football. 

Besides new national attention, old friends are coming back home to sit by the fire.  I’m seeing Lions hats and T-shirts more than I have in years.  I’m talking Lions with people—really talking about what’s happening, not just “Oh you’re still a fan, huh?”  People really are eager to see the Lions take take the next step: they’ve gone from oblivion to existence; now from existence to worthwhile existence.

Of course, as I’ve said multiple times, there’s a danger in this: now that the Lions have taken one step forward, it’s possible that they could take a step back.   Now that they’ve made progress, they may regress.  It’s no longer true that the only way to go from here is up.  Of course, it’s evident that this year’s Lions are more talented than last year’s iteration—but that safety net is gone.  With the possibility of hope fulfilled, comes the possibility of hope denied.

In terms of the mechanics of the game, I did a guest game preview column for a very cool Steelers blog, The Steelers N'at.  Pop over there and check it out (I included a little Aaron Brown highlight action for ya).

So, friends, are you ready?  Is your parka off, and your jersey on?  Are you feeling the heat of the blue bonfire?  Let’s pour some cider, clink our mugs, and hang out in the comments section!

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,pittsburgh steelers,matthew stafford,ben roethlisberger,the steelers n'at,ndamukong suh,calvin johnson,kyle vanden bosch

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Three Cups Deep: . . . It Is Finished

 The Lions' season is officially over.  Their 2-14 campaign fell just short of media expectations, and well short of fans’ hopes.  For what it’s worth, I believe that if Matthew Stafford had been able to play all 16 games at 100%, the Lions would have won several more—but at this point, that’s completely meaningless.
We saw what Daunte Culpepper’s checkdown mania can accomplish when the game is close, and players are making plays around him: caretaking, game-managing, not-losing.  However, that isn’t enough to keep pace with a team whose quarterback can actually push the ball downfield and make plays.
There was one other bright spot in the game yesterday, besides Megatron’s perfectly-executed fade: Maurice Morris.  Morris had 16 carries for 65 yards (4.06 YpC), and caught 5 more balls for 41 yards.  He looked really effective; he ran with burst and drive.  Aaron Brown also contributed a few very nice plays—the Lions ran for exactly 100 yards with 25 carries.
Unfortunately, the defense made the running game completely irrelevant.  On back-to-back forth quarter drives, they surrendered two ~50-yard plays that precipitated 17 Bears points in the final ten minutes of play.  Culpepper couldn’t cash in from the Bears’ 14, Derrick Williams fumbled a kickoff, and that was that.
These two facts throw two monkeywrenches into the current ‘hot topic’ of the Lions’ fandom: “Which runningback will the Lions pick up to replace Kevin Smith?”  From drafting C.J. Spiller with the #2 overall pick, to kicking a late-rounder to Baltimore for Willis McGahee, suggestions on how to acquire a new starting tailback abound.
Am I missing something?  Kevin Smith was drafted at the top of the third round two years ago, has been very productive in each of his first two seasons, and will be at full speed by midseason next year.  His top two backups are under multi-year contracts, and have looked good in relief.  Further, the Lions have had the worst defense in football for two consecutive seasons!
Here's the ugly truth: the Lions could add a Spiller, a McGahee, Adrian Peterson—last year’s Greatest Runningback Ever—or even Chris Johnson, this year’s Greatest Runningback Ever, and it wouldn’t matter.  In every game this season, the Lions have had to abandon the run no later than the third quarter.  Barry Sanders could walk into Allen Park and ask for his job back tomorrow, and Matt Stafford would still be asked to throw fifty times a game in 2010.
No, the Lions cannot waste a draft pick, or any significant money, on a halfback.  Defensive line (x2), defensive back (x3), offensive guard, and wide receiver are all desperate, red-alert level squeaky wheels—they will, and should, get the grease.
This going to be a very un-interesting offseason.  Last year, from the final gun of the final game, anything and everything about the Lions was in question.  The front office, the head coach, the assistant coaches—all of it, everything.  Even as answers to those questions resolved, everything else got shaken up: the logo, the uniforms, over half of the roster.
This season, though?  There will be no shakeup, no destruction.  The front office is in place, the coaches are in place, and the direction is set: forward.  All the Lions have to do is add talent.  To be themselves, only better.  To learn how to win.  To get bigger, stronger, faster, tougher, smarter.  To grow up.
Oh, and preseason predictions, based on game-by-game breakdowns?  I told you all they’re completely useless wastes of time.

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three cups deep: at new orleans

In between church and my 10-year high school reunion, I swung the family truckster back home.  My intent was to trim and/or shave the steel wool that sprouts, unbidden, from my face and neck—but the timing was such that with the volume cranked, I could catch the first couple of drives.  By the time I’d finished trimming, shaving, and getting back in the car, the Lions were already down by 14.

I felt a sickening chill in my belly, and a fell curse haunted my thoughts: “Just like last year.”  The only thing I couldn't bear was already transpiring: on the road against an NFC South team, two breathtakingly quick scores out of their explosive passing offense, and the Lions had an L on their record before the first half of the first quarter.  Just like last year . . . only, not quite.

Don’t forget, last season the Lions were coming off of a 7-9 season (after a 6-2 start), and thinking playoffs, while the Falcons were coming off a worse-than-the-record-indicates 4-12 season, where the wheels completely fell off of the bus.  The Lions being down so far so fast was a complete stunner, a shock to the system.

This, however, was exactly what many predicted: Drew Brees exposing a questionable secondary.  While it all seemed painfully familiar, this was anything but a surprise—the Lions are an experiment in slash-and-burn football team agriculture, and the Saints are likely Super Bowl contenders.  In hindsight, what’s most painful to me is how despite Drew Brees threw six touchdown passes, and Matt Stafford threw three picks, for most of the game, the Lions were still in it.

Yes, thanks to a INT by a Lions cornerback (!), two forced and recovered fumbles, one returned for a TD (!!), and a kick and punt return that each went deep into the red zone (!!!), the Lions kept this one within two scores for most of the game.  And that, folks, is really the crucial difference between this year’s opener and last: 0-14 wasn’t the end of it.

Instead of going into full-on meltdown mode, the Lions’ D stiffened up, forcing two straight punts.  The O finally got on board with a field goal and a TD. Stafford threw a pick, but Dewayne White blocked the Saints' ensuing FG attempt. Stafford then hit Megatron for an apparent 67-yard TD--and after about 30 minutes of the refs playing Keystone Cops, Stafford punched it in himself. It went on like this, with the Lions (mostly) keeping the bleeding to a minimum, often failing to maximize their ensuing opportunities, but never totally collapsing. All the way up until the very end, the Lions were fighting tooth and nail, making plays to stay in it.

There were some things I saw that I didn't expect to see, though: after talking for months about how he was going to get after the QB, Gun actually went back into a shell after the first two bombs. I've noticed some grumbling about how he didn't bring the heat like he said he would, but let's face it: that's smart coaching. If the other team's quarterback is gashing your man coverage for 20-to-30 yards every time he drops back to pass, blitzing 40% of the time simply isn't an option.

Also, after being pretty damn accurate with his downfield passes all preseason, Stafford looked quite jittery; after throwing a lot of passes short in the first half, they all started sailing on him in the second half. He also threw one of his picks when he pump-faked and the ball slipped in his hand, producing a knuckleball that wasn't anywhere near where he intended.  Yes, Matt Stafford looked like a rookie--and while it's possible that Culpepper's veteran presence might have saved a turnover or two, I don't think the offense would have been much more effective--and it wouldn't have mattered anyway; the Saints were just too good.

This has been the crux of the "Start Stafford" argument all along: even if Culpepper is marginally better, him playing over Stafford wouldn't make much difference in terms of wins and losses--and even it would, one or two more wins on a 4-12 team won't matter anyway. According to the broadcasters, Stafford watched every game of Greg Williams' defenses for the last five years on film to prepare for this week; tying that to 60 minutes of live game experience is invaluable experience to a rookie. I still think that Schwartz made the right decision.

In the end, Drew Brees was just too much for guys like Eric King, who was starting in place of Philip Buchanon. Drew Brees was too much for Marquand Manuel. Drew Brees was too much for Avril and White, despite being without his blindside protector, Jammal Brown, and losing Brown's backup in the middle of the game. The Saints were the best offense in football last year, and show no signs of slowing down. Moroever, their defense appears to be dramatically improved, too; they're legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Whereas last year's Week 1 loss had us stunned, reeling, and searching for answers, this game showed us exactly what we, or at least I, expected to see: a shootout that the Lions lose. Believe it or not, the Lions never mustered this many points in any game last season! Now next week's task will be swing the every needle 180 degrees except the one for "Degree of Difficulty": the Vikings have an astounding running game, a lackluster passing game, and a suffocating defense that you can't run on; pressuring QBs and covering WRs without blitzing. I'll be there in person to see how the Lions adjust.

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the story of the game: Lions 27, Falcons 26

It was a familiar sight: a Lions game concluding with a game-winning field goal; a lead held most of the game snatched away by a ball sailing through the uprights, as the clock ticked down to 00:00.  There was only one thing out of place in this nightmare Lions fans have lived through hundreds of times: the ball had come off of the black-shod foot of Jason Hanson, and the 27-26 come-from-behind victory belonged to the boys in Honolulu Blue.

For fans thrilled to get a glimpse of this thoroughly-turned-over roster, chomping at the bit to see the new schemes, and positively frothing at the mouth to see all three quarterbacks play, they got an eyeful—if they were patient.  Daunte Culpepper, as it had been announced, would start the game, and Stafford and Stanton would each due to receive plenty of reps.

After the defense held Atlanta to a single first down, the offense took the field.  Immediately, they did something Lions fans haven’t seen in a long time: they ran the ball, and ran it well.  Kevin Smith ran off-tackle for first 4 yards, then 7 yards.  Culpepper hit Smith on a little  swing pass, and Smith turned it upfield for eleven.  The Falcons defense was already starting to commit penalties trying to slow the Lions down.   Culpepper was flashing a little bit of his old speed—just a little bit, but it was there—scrambling to escape the rush; rolling out to make things happen. 

On a cruical 3rd-and-7, Culpepper hit Smith for another 16 yards.  Smith’s day ended there, but that was all we needed to see: Kevin Smith looked quicker than last season, but no less strong—in fact, he was hitting the hole even harder.  You can tell the offseason work with RB coach Sam Gash has really added explosion and burst to his game.  After working all the way down to the Atlanta two-yard-line, a dude named Thomas Johnson came barreling through the Lions’ line and took Culpepper down, even before he’d finished dropping back.  The Lions settled for a field goal.

Unfortunately, the Falcons answered quickly, mixing Michael Turner runs in with passes to Roddy White, moving from the Atlanta 23 to the Detroit 40 in just six plays.  Then, as we saw so often last year, the dam burst: Turner got out into the open field, and blew past both Lamarcus Hicks and Kalvin Pearson on his way to paydirt; a 40-yard touchdown run.  Immediately, I recalled something that Tom Kowalski said after the Lions drafted Louis Delmas: that long touchdown runs are often the result of poor safety play.  Of course, we can’t know if Delmas would have made that play, but we can know that if Kalvin Pearson is starting come Week 1, the Lions will be desperately looking to upgrade the position.

Culpepper’s second drive sandwiched the break between quarters--and accomplished little of significance, stalling one yard into enemy territory.  After the Falcons themselves put themselves in a hole on the first play with a holding penalty, they soon punted it right back to the Lions.  The crowd started to rev up for Stafford--but he stayed on the bench, and Culpepper came out yet again.  Aveion Cason, who would end the day with a very Casonesque 8 carries for 23 yards, got stuffed at the line.  Culpepper tried to a couple of short passes, but Stephen Peterman committed an extremely dumb 15-yarder that stalled the drive.  Atlanta took it back; while they didn’t get far, they didn’t need to to get within Jason Elam’s range.  Elam hit a 46-yarder to make it 10-3.

Now?  Finally, now?  Yes.  Now.  After a very nice 28-yard return by Derrick Williams, Matthew Stafford took the field to rousing cheers.  He got started right away, zipping one downfield to Keary Colbert—and it bounced right off his hands.  Stafford hit Derrick Williams up the seam for a quick 10 yards and first down, then Cason ran for no gain again.  After a swing pass to Cason, Stafford looked Colbert’s way again . . . and he dropped it, again.  This time, it killed the drive.  Nick Harris booted a beauty, and the Lions covered up on the 3-yard-line—but sixth-round pick Aaron Brown had lined up incorrectly, as he’d done in training camp, forcing a re-kick.

With the Falcons’ twos in, Cliff Avril apparently smelled blood; he jumped WAY offside on the first play of the ensuing Falcons series.  Jarious Norwood used his speed to convert the first down, but then the Lions’ defense stiffened up.  Nice coverage from Darnell Bing, and EMU product Chris Roberson, on successive plays forced the Falcons to punt it away.

Stafford took over again.  Working out of the shotgun, Stafford faked a handoff to Ervin, then rifled one down the sideline to Colbert for—whoa—a completion, of the 28-yard variety.  After the two-minute warning, An 8-yard run from Cason set the Lions up with a 2nd-and-2.  Stafford zipped two more passes to Colbert, neither of which Colbert managed to catch.  Stafford appeared to take it all in stride, with an almost Farvesque handclap and grin.  As announcer Desmond Howard noted, Stafford didn’t appear to be feeding Colbert, so much as he was properly executing the offense; Colbert just kept happening to be the ‘right guy’.  The ensuing Falcons ‘drive’ would quickly be interrupted by halftime. 

As Stafford took the field again, you could feel the good vibes flowing.  Stafford’s arm was as live as reports had indicated, he was placing the ball very well, he looked totally composed and poised, and was clearly having fun out there.  Then . . . the badness.

Rolling to his right to get away from a blitz, Stafford tried to force it to Dan Gronkowski near the numbers. Falcons LB Tony Gilbert read it, jumped the route, picked the pass clean, and took it to the house.  Stafford knew he’d messed up:

"(The receiver) ended up getting there, but he got there a little late. But still, it's not his fault. I've got to throw that one into the third row."

This is the kind of thing that only game experience teaches.  Schwartz can make Stafford practice throwing the ball away all he wants, but what drives the lesson home is the Ford Field crowd falling silent, while the enemy celebrates a pick-six.  Incredibly, the Falcons’ veteran kicker, Jason Elam, missed the ensuing extra point attempt.  Of course, that point wouldn’t prove to be the margin of victory or anything, so it wasn’t especially noteworthy. 

Still, Stafford went right back to it, hitting Allen Ervin for 22, hitting Eric Fowler for 21, and then—finally—hitting paydirt.  On a play action, Stafford looked deep to the left, quickly reset to the right, and zipped a gorgeous pass into the end zone, right over Derrick Williams’s far shoulder—and Williams snared it and tucked it in, beyond the reach of the cornerback, who was draped all over him.  Touchdown. 

Stafford, who’d stood tall in the pocket, and taken a real shot after letting it go, absolutely placed that ball.  It was a really, really, really nice pass.  Without the speed of the read, the quick re-set of his feet to throw to his second option, and the perfect throw in the face of the rush—without all three of those things—that’s at best an incompletion, at worst a sack.  Stafford’s final stat line: 7/14, 114 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.  Colbert’s drops would have tacked on at least another 60 yards, and, perhaps, gotten Stafford and the Lions in range for another TD.  Still, drops will happen no matter who’s throwing or catching, and we have to take Stafford’s performance for what it was: a really, really, really good rookie quarterback proving that he’s both really, really really good—and a rookie.

On the ensuing defensive series, the Lions made a mess of everything.  Chuck Darby was flagged for a 15-yard facemask on 3rd-and-7, and then Eric King was flagged for PI—to the tune of 38 yards.  The Falcons immediately punched it in from the 1, and took a 23-10 lead.

The Lions took back over on offense, and now Drew Stanton would finally have his day in the sun.  No shorts, no T-shirts, no 7-on-7.  No drills, no coaches, no air horn.  11-on-11, us vs. them, time to play football.  After Allen Ervin ran one for a couple of yards, Stanton got hit him for a 12-yard gain.  It was initially ruled that Ervin fumbled, but review proved he certainly did not.  Then, DS threw a frankly horrible interception to Jaime Winborn—but luckily, it was called back thanks to defensive PI.  Thanks to a nice mix of Ervin runs and a Stanton scramble, the Lions got back over midfield, and an Aaron Brown run for 6 put them up the Falcons’ 38.  On the ensuing play, Brown ran to the right, the—passing up what appeared to be a wide-open hole--cut back across the defense and exploded to the sideline.  He beat the incoming safety, and turned it up.  38 yards later, Aaron Brown cashed in.  As he explained it:

"The inside zone play is like the play we ran at TCU. It's not really a cutback, but just seeing all the defenders banging inside in the box, if everybody's inside, there can't be that many people on the outside. So I just went to the left.''

It showed the kind of vision, burst, and cutback ability that hasn’t been seen here since a certain Hall of Famer prowled the backfield.  Brown, obviously, isn’t nearly the player that player was—or he’d have been a top 3 draft pick instead of a sixth-rounder—but he certainly flashed NFL-caliber vision and speed on that play.

The Lions kicked off to the Falcons, and on first down Stu Schweigert made the first of many great plays.  On 2nd-and-10, the Falcons again committed holding, and again this put their offense way out of rhythm.  Ultimately they punted, and Derrick Williams fair-caught it at the 12.  After Ervin was stuffed up the middle, Drew Stanton again proved why he’s worth an NFL roster spot.  Seeing nothing, he tucked it and ran up the middle for a 27-yard gain.  After a 2-yard run by  Ervin, the third quarter came to a conclusion.

Two more Brown runs netted only five yards, and the Lions were forced to punt, just short of field goal range.  Rookie Atlanta tailback Thomas Brown was stuffed by Stu Schweigert for a one-yard loss, and then D.J. Shockley threw an incomplete pass.  Working out of the shotgun on 3rd-and-6, Shockley hit Eric Weems for a 15-yarder.  They tried to run Brown again, and again Schweigert came up to the line and made the play.  They ran Brown for three more consecutive plays, and he tallied up 13 yards and a first down, keeping the drive alive.  Back in the shotgun on 3rd-and-6, Shockley again looked to Weems, but couldn’t pull it off; Atlanta was again forced to punt.

The Lions completely misfired on this drive; a Stanton intentional grounding penalty on third down actually put the Lions back seven yards from where they started, on their own 13.  The rookie out of Alabama, John Parker Wilson, took over for the Falcons just shy of midfield.  Wilson dinked and dunked up to Lions’ 23, where undrafted rookie free agent DE Ryan Kees made a great stop on 3rd-and-3, forcing the Falcons to go to Elam again.  Elam nailed it, making the score 26-17.

Stanton took over, knowing this was his chance to flash the “gamer” skills I (and others) have been waxing rhapsodic about all offseason.  Working from the shotgun, Stanton hit D.J. Boldin for 9 yards.  Forgoing the huddle, Stanton  again helped himself out with a judicious six-yard run—and got out of bounds.  Again from the gun, Stanton hit rookie Carson Butler, who turned it up for a 24-yard gain.  Then, Aaron Brown earned himself a roster spot.  Seeing nothing, Stanton floated it to Brown as he released from his man—and Brown turned it upfield with a vengeance.  Freezing a DB with a sick stutter move, Brown turned it on and raced to the endzone—and then capped his 45-yard touchdown with a picture-perfect roundoff/backflip combination.  After sticking the landing, he got a –15 from the Zebra judge; a unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that, frankly, was bunk.  Since his celebration involved no props, teammates, obvious premeditiation, or taunting, there’s absolutely no on-the-books rule against what he did.  Oh, well, it’s preseason—I’ll take it.

With the score now 26-24, it was imperative the Lions’ defense come up with a stop—and that they did, with Stu Schweigert again coming up and making a big tackle for a loss, DeAndre Levy following suit on second down, and the rookie from D-II Saint Cloud State, Ryan Kees, holding the Falcons to a single yard on third down.  The Falcons punted.

Stanton took the reigns on his on 27, down by two, with 1:36 left on the clock.  This is exactly the kind of goofy scenario that Jim Schwartz relentlessly forces the Lions to practice.  Again from the gun, Stanton hit Billy McMullen for 8 yards.  Going no-huddle, he threw an incompletion intended for Aaron Brown—then hit Brown for six on third-and-2.  On the ensuing play, the Falcons jumped offside, making it an easy 1st-and-five for Drew.  He again hit Boldin for seven, and quickly spiked the ball to kill the clock.  He went deep to Sippio on second down, but couldn’t connect.  On third-and-10 from the 47, this was it; convert or lose.  Stanton, almost predictably, called his own number.  With an 18-yard scramble up the middle, Stanton  both converted, and got the Lions into field goal range.  With a spike to stop the clock with three seconds left, Jason Hanson took the field.  Spotted on the left hash, 47 yards out, Hanson put it just inside the left upright.  Victory.  It may not count in the record books, but there’s no doubt it counted with the players, the coaches, and the fans.

There’s a lot of discussion to be had about this game, and—rest assured—we will have it.  But for now, let us bask.  We have not only one decent quarterback, but we may have three.  The two picks most widely panned—WR Derrick Williams and RB Aaron Brown—both came up huge in this game.  The protection was decent, coverage was solid, and Kevin Smith looks like he’s ready to not only repeat 2008, but take a big step forward.

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Lions uncaged

So I’m sure folks have been wondering where my exquisitely detailed, play-by-play breakdown of the open practice at Ford Field—the “Lions Uncaged!” event--is.  It is here, at NetRat’s blog.  NetRat has been doing incredible work, watching all of the publicly available practices and taking extensive notes.   However, the annual open practice is supposed to be family-friendly, and so I brought my wife and progeny, not a stopwatch and clipboard.  As such, I have no forensic evidence for you—facts, stats, etc.—but I DO have circumstantial evdience: thoughts, feelings, impressions . . . oh, and pictures.

The drive to Ford Field could be described with a single word: “wet”.  It was an all-day soaker; in the hackneyed world of Ernest Hemingway I shouldn’t have bothered to get out of bed, let alone drive to Detroit in an attempt to have a LEGENDARY DAY OF FUN.  We parked in the structure, and then met some friends in the long, long, LONG line to get inside the stadium.  I should mention that this line was outside, in the rain, and it was raining, and it was outside.  We were all soaked in a matter of moments.

One of my friends had peeled off to go to a different gate, to get a better spot in the line for Matt Stafford.  I stupidly decided to try and take my two eldest kids there, too, but after five minutes of slogging through the downpour, I realized I’d led them the wrong way, so we simply turned around and went back.  When the gates opened, all of the fans who’d been waiting in the parking structure immediately ran across the street and cut in front of all of us poor suckers who’d been waiting in the line for 45 minutes, an hour, or more.  As we got in the door, my wife headed to the Calvin Johnson line, and I tried to hustle the two biggest kids directly to the Stafford line; it was already a doozy by the time we got there.

After about ten minutes, a Lions staffer walked the line, telling us it was already longer than they planned to let get autographs, and we may want to find another line.  After another 15 minutes or so, another person walked up and down the line saying that they’d only planned for about 160 autographs, and the cutoff for 160 was well ahead of us—however, we were welcome to say in line if we liked.  I’d been burned by this before: staff convincing me that I’ve got no chance for an autograph--only to have them extend the session after I give up.  We foolishly stayed, and after another ten minutes they closed the line.  Of course, they closed all the lines at the same time, so now we were out of luck entirely.  My kids were crushed.  We ran to the Calvin Johnson line to see if my wife had made it, but they closed it about ten people ahead of her . . . and that was it.  No autographs.

My oldest, when I explained what had happened, burst into tears.  She said, “You mean, we’re not going to get to meet the players?” I had to swallow hard; I didn’t anticipate this at all.  After hustling to get from Lansing to Detroit in time, after waiting in the rain for ever and ever, and after running through the halls of Ford Field to get in line, a scenario where we didn’t end up with anything simply didn’t enter into my imagination.  Well . . . there we were, so we tried to make the best of it.

Since we’d spent the whole time waiting for autographs, all of the prime close-up seats were taken, so we perched high in the end zone instead.  Now, this robbed me of being able to scout the line play, which was a bummer—but, it opened up a new world in terms of watching the quarterbacks.

We as fans are so used to the “TV angle”, the down-the-line-of-scrimmage-cam, that we lose appreciation for how wide the field is.  It’s 160 feet---that’s fifty three and one-third yards.  That’s right, folks--no matter what Tecmo Bowl taught us, the field of play is over half as wide as it is long.  A “30-yard-out” is really a 40-plus-yard throw, assuming the QB’s standing in the middle of the field.  When people say that arm strength “doesn’t matter”, to an extent, they’re right—the 50-yard sideline bomb is only deployed once or twice a game.  But where arm strength DOES matter is getting the rock to the receiver while he’s still open.  It’s difficult to explain without resorting to video clips I don’t have--but in watching the passing drills live, the differences between Stafford, Culpepper, and Stanton were remarkable.

When the ball leaves Culpepper’s hand, it does so with zip.  He, no doubt, has the arm strength to thread the needle.  In the 7-on-7 drills,  he appeared to have the best grasp of the offense.  I could see his eyes going to his second and third reads.  I could see him whipping through his checkdowns and making decisions.  He makes his reads, pulls the trigger, and does so with velocity--but still, it looks like he’s rushing everything.  I saw a frustratingly consistent lack of accuracy on the short stuff—not missing his receivers necessarily, but not putting it where they can easily catch it.  There were a lot of incomplete passes to open receivers 5-10 yards downfield; not what you want to see.

In the 11-on-11 stuff, he really struggled with the pass rush.  What was inaccuracy in the 7-on-7 work seemed to turn into ineffectiveness when line play was added back into the equation.  There was one play where Culpepper hesitated once, twice, and then Jared Devries beat his man around the corner; he pulled up and tapped Culpepper on the shoulder.  Nobody blew the whistle, though, so Culpepper stepped up and launched a bomb to Megatron, who got under it and hauled it in.  The place exploded--but in real life, this was a loss of eight, not a gain of six.  All in all, I would say that Culpepper was adequate; he never made a big mistake, but he didn’t move the ball that much, either.  He looked like a competent, mediocre veteran quarterback—exactly what the Lions needed him to be last season, instead of a turnover factory.

When Stafford throws the ball, it’s not much faster than Culpepper, but there’s a pop, a tautness that Culpepper’s passes doesn’t have.  The spiral is absolute, every time; it slices through the air.  There’s no Joey-esque duck-spiral-duck-quail-spiral-pheasant nonsense; The Truth’s passes in no way resemble game fowl.  Matt Stafford has an unreal arm, and he uses it effectively on dump-offs, go-routes, and everything in between.  There was one deep pass in the early 7-on-7 stuff where Stafford grooved this deep ball down the sidelines . . . thanks to my vantage point, I can’t tell you exactly how long the pass was, but it was somewhere between 40 and 60 yards.  The point here was that Stafford sailed a perfect, perfect spiral from the middle of the field, down the sidelines, to an open man—and the ball arced beautifully in the air, almost rolled over from the middle of the field to the sideline, like a curveball, and then dropped out of the sky, just inside the sideline.  The wideout wasn’t quite sure where the ball was, and his hesitation in picking it up was the difference between a jawdropping touchdown, and a pass that hit the turf a half a step ahead of the receiver—as it did.

It kind of hit me at that point: that’s what Matt Stafford needs to learn.  Not how to set his feet.  Not how to break down a defense.  Not how to grip the ball.  Not how to look off a safety.  Certainly not how to throw a picture-perfect deep ball.  Matthew Stafford needs to get reps in the offense, hone his timing, and develop a rapport with his receivers.  That’s it.  He can’t do it sitting on a bench, folks; he needs to be on the field.  I know it, Tom Kowalski knows it, and according to him, the Lions' coaches know it, too.  Say hello to your Week 1 starting quarterback.

Oh, for that matter, say hello to Killer (in the TV light):

Stafford’s far from perfect; as I said, he’s not looking at a lot of his third and fourth reads . . . at least, not that I could tell by watching his eyes from the end zone.  Then again, Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports reported the other day that Stafford fooled Julian Peterson with a no-look pass, so maybe I’m off in that assessment.  Stafford seemed to have fewer “little mistakes” than Culpepper—when he threw the ball to the right guy at the right time, it was there, quickly, and on-target.  However, Stafford also had more “where was that going?” moments; not many, but a few where the pass was either with a wrong route in mind, or to a receiver who ran the wrong route.  Given that Stafford ran almost entirely with the twos, I can’t be sure.

In terms of overall gameday effectiveness, I’d say that Stafford is roughly Culpepper’s equal.  Given that, I don’t see how anyone can continue to justify calling for Stafford to sit.  He’s at least as good as a guy who’s starting his 11th season in the league—and has been a starter, when healthy, almost that entire time.  That means that he’s already better than Joey ever was, or ever will be.  That means that he’s an average NFL starter, right now.  That means that he’s not a bust, he’s not a flop, and he’s not a waste of seventy million dollars—and, maybe, just maybe, he’ll be worth every penny.

Drew Stanton showed me a little bit of something; he had a great pump fake that lead to a completion, made a couple plays with his legs, and generally executed effectively.  Stanton was the only quarterback to convert in one of the situational drills (10 seconds left, 1 time out, 30-yard line).  However, the difference between his passes and Stanton’s was remarkable.

Stanton’s balls would, you know, get there and everything, but when he’d run the same drills right after Stafford, you could just see it: the difference in zip on the same passes could mean a step, or two, or three for a closing defender—the difference between a receiver turning it upfield for more yardage, and a safety swatting it away before the catch.

The NFL is a world of instants and inches—and if Drew Stanton wants to survive, he will need to develop a Kurt Warner-like holistic understanding of the offense and defense and keys and reads; he will have to learn to throw the ball well before his receiver gets to where they’re going.  Let’s hope for his sake that the Turk spares him one more season, and he can go into 2010 ready to honestly compete for a career backup gig (a la Charlie Batch).

Now, for some quick final impressions . . .

• This guy, Adam Jennings, was everywhere.  Ones, twos, threes, and a favorite target of all three quarterbacks.  I don’t know what his chances are of making the team, but he certainly caught my eye.
• Aaron Brown flashed real explosion working with the twos and threes; in live move-the-ball drills he showed a compact running style, great lateral burst, and bounced off of tacklers.  I know he infuriated The Grandmaster the next day, but if it comes down to Brown or Caseon on the final roster, I really hope it’s Brown—someone might pluck this kid off the practice squad, and we could lose out on a good one.
• I passed Landon Cohen in the halls, and he’s RIPPED.  I mean, the guy is allegedly up around 305, but he can’t be more than five or six percent body fat.  It looked like he was wearing pads—but he wasn’t.  Unreal.
• Grady Jackson, Jon Jansen, Daniel Loper, and Stuart Schweigart all stayed late afterwards to sign autographs.  I brought my two eldest down to the rail:

  

             Schwiegart saw my daughter holding out our football, and gladly signed it.  After he signed a few more balls and shirts, he took off his socks and shoes and wristbands, and called for quiet.  He then started asking trivia questions about himself (“What school am I from?”), and rifling pieces of his gear towards correct answerers.
• Check out the difference in color between my authentic and my kids’s replicas!

  

• We moved towards midfield for the end of the session (live 11-on-11), and I definitely noticed the offensive line getting a LOT of push up the middle; much much more than I have seen in years from a Lions' squad.  Check this out:

  

  The LoS is around the 30, the runner is at the 28, and he’s got a five-yard-wide hole up until around the 32. I don’t know if this is just significant because of the weak DT play, or if the Lions’ OL is really that improved, or a combination thereof.  Note the pressure the RE is getting, though—this was a pattern I saw over and over, the wide-set ends ‘pinching’ or ‘funnelling’ the runner to the middle, just as the defense was designed.   The DTs aren’t holding their ground—but all three LBs are patiently in position.  I think we’ll see this a lot; the defense will give up a lot of three-to-five yard runs up the middle, but the ‘backers will hold them to no more.

In my last post, I mentioned about how I thought the soul of sports is the young fan, sitting in awe and wonder of the spectacle of it all. Despite the filthy, naked greed on display--both by the organization in charging us four bucks for a bottle of water, and by fellow fans by cutting in line--and the awful time we had before, during, and after the ‘family fun’, this is what it’s all about:

A HUGE thanks goes out to my shutterbug wife, her incredible patience and understanding around this endeavor, and the excellent snaps she took without the aid of a zoom lens.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,detroit lions jerseys,training camp,lions uncaged,matthew stafford,ford field

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three cups deep

Those of you who’ve been reading since the very beginning—or, incredibly, crawled back through the archives--know of my abiding love of coffee.  I love nearly everything about the stuff.  I love the steam rising out of a hot mug of joe, and I love the smell wafting up out of a porcelain cup of espresso.  I love the taste of a nice clean cup of brewed preground, and I love the taste of a meticulously prepared macchiato.  I love the crema surging to the top of a shot of espresso, and I love the absolutely singular smell of fresh roasted coffee beans.  Out of everything I love about coffee, one of the qualities I treasure most is the warmth. The relaxing, soothing, radiation from a thick porcelain mug, the jolt of heat from a thin paper cup, the bracing flood of warmth rushing over my tongue, and the hot weight in my gut, warming me from the inside out like a little liquid furnace.

On Mondays, it takes little bit more of the good stuff to get me going.  The first desperately-needed cup is often not until nine o'clock or so, often because I’m such a complete zombie that I forget to go get coffee.  I’m lucky to make it back to my desk with that first cup before I’m trekking back to the office Bunn—desperately hoping I won’t be the sucker who kills the joe, and therefore beholden to make some mo’.

The second cup I down steadily, solidly, workmanlike.  By the end of that second helping, I’m starting to get the tingl; my eyes aren’t drooping quite so much.  I realize I’m slouching so badly in my chair that the backrest is supporting my head instead, and move to an upright position.  But the third cup . . . ahh, the third cup.  The initial sip of the third cup is like Zeus’s lighting; a bolt from the heavens igniting my nervous system!  I lean forward in my chair, attacking the problems of the day with emphatic keyboard strikes, pummeling my dreary to-do list into submission.  It is now, at the beginning of that third cup, that I write this.

Today marks the first day of an experiment.  I’ve written serial posts before (“Meet the Cubs”, “To Whom It May Concern”, etc.), but those get posted as I complete them, never on a regular, scheduled basis.  With training camp looming, and the preseason after that, and—no way—the regular season immediately after that, the flow of information will soon widen from a trickle to a torrent.  Since I often write over the weekend, but rarely post, and since the analytics show that a majority of you folks only check in Monday through Friday, I—and you—are in need of a rundown of everything that happened in Lions-land over the weekend.  And so:

•    Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote an extremely scary piece comparing Matt Stafford with the last multi-year starter at Georgia, David Greene.  This is every Lions fan’s worst nightmare: that Matt Stafford can’t translate his success in the SEC to the NFL.  That his arm, such a great weapon against college defensive backs, will be nullified by the fiercer pass rushes, the nightmarish blitz schemes, and the complicated coverages.  That the dramatic quickening of the game, the dictionary-thick playbooks, and the blizzard of new terminology and nomenclature snow him under before he even has a chance to warm up.  Unfortunately, there’s no silver lining to this story.  Outside of the fact that more NFL teams fell in love with Stafford’s physical tools than Greene’s (Greene was a third-round pick), and the Lions' coaching staff’s glowing initial reports, there’s nothing that points to Stafford succeeding where Greene so completely failed.  In fact, as Football Outsiders’s Bill Barnwell pointed out before the draft, Greene actually outproduced Stafford’s numbers at Georgia—same system, same coaching staff, Greene was better.  Yikes.
•    New Lion Jon Jansen spoke to Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press, and spoke, very candidly, about the upcoming labor situation.  He dropped some serious wisdom with the following quote:  

  "I don't think we're heading for anything like that. Yeah, we're going to threaten it, they're going to threaten. At some point everybody's going to be like, 'Oh, my gosh. This is going to happen.'  But when it comes down to it, if there's a strike, the owners are in this, obviously they're in it for winning, but they're all also in it to make money. And if we're not on the field, no one's making money. ... If we're not on the field, we're not making money. We don't want that. When it comes down to it, we'll figure it out."

    I dearly hope that the movers and shakers of both sides figure this out sooner rather than later.  One of the NFL’s greatest strengths has been the ongoing labor peace—alternately blamed on and credited to a close working relationship between former Commission Tagliabue and former NFLPA President, the late Gene Upshaw.  Now that Roger Goodell sits so strongly at the commissioner’s desk, and trial lawyer DeMaurice Smith heads up the NFLPA, I hope both sides can reach this common understanding: that the fans’ love of football is what pays all of their salaries, and they owe it to their employees/members to work together in a spirit of not killing what might be America’s last great golden goose.
•    The Lions are finally starting to knock out a few of these rookie contracts, with TCU RB Aaron Brown getting locked up on Friday afternoon.  With a lingering hamstring problem keeping third-rounder Derrick Williams on figurative and literal ice throughout OTAs and minicamps, Brown has a great chance to establish himself as a valuable return option.  He’ll compete with Williams and the newest Lion, WR Dennis Northcutt, throughout training camp.

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meet the cubs: aaron brown

When the Lions drafted TCU running back Aaron Brown in the sixth round, there was quite a bit of consternation.  Given the third-round pick of Penn State WR Derrick Williams, and the presence on the roster of pass-catching/third-down/kick-return RBs Maurce Morris, Aveion Caseon, and (at the time) Brian Calhoun, it seemed like the 6'-1", 196-pound Brown would be lucky to make the roster.  Any pick spent on a longshot to make an 0-16 team had to be seen as a pick wasted . . .

After some research, it looks as though there are deeper concerns about Brown than the depth chart.  In high school, Brown was suspended for his senior year following a "graffiti incident".  Even more worrying was his senior year in college: a three-game suspension for "violating school policy".  I haven't been able to discover the exact nature of this infraction--and apparently, this was by the design of TCU coach Gary Patterson.   The fact that Brown's official bio doesn't list any of his accomplishments for his entire senior season is either a grave oversight, or an intentional wiping of the history books.  Since this is being characterized as a 'violation of school policy', I'm willing to bet that it's something analagous to the old 'violation of team rules' line.  That usually means a discipline problem like a fight, or was caught excessively drinking/smoking weed/etc.  Alternatively, we could be looking at an academic problem like cheating on a test, or skipping too many classes.  TCU, apparently, is notoriously tight-lipped about issues like this, so apparently no one has any information.  Beyond that, there are some mild injury concerns, like an ankle injury shortening his junior season.

Still, there are no doubts that Brown is a talented athlete.  Rivals didn't have him listed as a high school recruit, but he was a track star; he cut a 10.45 100-meter dash time in 2004.  According to most scouting reports, he plays a bit like that too: extremely quick and fast--but too upright, and doesn't maintain his speed through cuts well.  By all reports, he has outstanding hands (at least one team, the Cowboys, has worked him out as a wide reciever).  For what it's worth, he seemed to headline every "How Was This Guy Not Invited To The Combine?" list.  

He made an instant impact as a freshman, blowing up Utah for 163 yards on 17 carries on a nationally-televised Thursday night game.  He ended the season with 758 rushing yards--and the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year award.  His sophomore season was his coming out party; with 801 rushing yards, 9 TDs, and 34 receptions, he was named second team All-Conference.  Going into 2007, it looked like Brown was ready to explode.  Named the Preseason Mountain West Player of the year, Brown instead struggled with various nicks and bruises all year long.  Finally, Brown tweaked an ankle against UNLV in the second-to-last regular season game.  This, combined with TCU's unconventional ground attack, meant Brown only had 107 carries to work with--but managed to crank out 490 yards anyway.  Adding in his 24 receptions and his kick returns, Brown managed to eke out 995 all-purpose yards on the season.  Finally came his senior year and the Mystery Suspension; by the time Brown got on the field, he was rusty, and fighting for touches with his backup Joseph Turner, as well as the Horned Frog's athletic quarterback, Andy Dalton.  Brown, however, used his last game to make a statement.  Facing Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl, he rushed for 102 yards on just 14 carries (7.2 ypc), including a 16-yard TD run that put the Frogs on the board just before halftime, keeping their hopes alive.  TCU used the momentum to come out rolling in the second half, en route to a 17-16 upset of the ninth-ranked Broncos.

There isn't much video out there of Brown, but I did unearth a few clips, mixed in with other TCU highlights:

Brown's offered the media a few blurbs about the vibe he got from the Lions in pre-draft workouts:

"I visited with Sam Gash, the running backs coach, and some of the player personnel guys and they made me feel a lot more welcome than a lot of teams did," Brown said. "I felt good about my experience there. There was a lot of hands-on work."

He also addressed the character concerns:

"I'm not the same person I was in high school or college," he said. "I talked to the Lions about all of that and they know that I'm remorseful for the things I did wrong."

The Grandmaster, in defense of the pick:

“He averaged almost 32 yards a kickoff,” said Schwartz. “That brought big value with Aaron Brown.  At that point, that was who we liked,” he said. “Let me say this: everybody we drafted, we liked and we saw a role for. So it wasn’t like we were just drafting just blindly to take guys. But I thought we did a really good job of balancing high-rated players with how we were going to use them.”

With that quote, and the release of Brian Calhoun coming immediately after rookie minicamp, Brown's role is clear: there's an opportunity for him on the roster--but in order to make the most of it, he must immediately make an impact in the return game.  The rest of the stuff: third-down back, slot receiver, etc., that can all come later.  But if Aaron Brown is going to prove he belongs in the NFL, and prove the combine scouts wrong for snubbing him, he has to hit home runs in the kick and punt return game.  The Lord knows the Lions need them.

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meet the cubs: the first minicamp

The rookie class of 2009 had their first reps in Lion uniforms (sans the logo on the helmet, which, ever since Parcells made rookies "earn the star" in Dallas, has become the de rigeur move for the entire NFL) over the weekend.  Following Tom Kowalski, Dave Birkett, and Nick Cotsonika's updates over the weekend left us with a few notable impressions:

* Matt Stafford came out throwing--overthrowing, in fact.  Appearing anxious to please, his first few passes were a little wild.  This echoes the scouting reports of his Pro Day performance: he was rocketing balls as hard as he could on that day, too; overthrowing to try to impress.  However, he quickly settled down on Friday, and ultimately earned the praise of his fellow rookies.   As Killer noted, Stafford was (correctly) throwing before the recievers broke, so that when they made their break and turned around to look for the ball, it was already there--and moving fast.  A lot of Stafford's passes bounced off of hands that were either rusty, unused to such velocity, or both.  Former Georgia WR Sean Bailey, at rookie minicamp on a tryout, took a Stafford pass off the facemask on the first day.  Said Penn State WR Derrick Williams: "My impressions were, please don't take my head off today.  I tried to make sure that I had my head around. He's really good. He's going to be a great quarterback.”

* Brandon Pettigrew had arguably the easiest time catching Stafford's fastballs on Friday.  He was then held out of Saturday practices with a tight hamstring.  Honestly, the pass catching is nice--but we knew he had soft hands.  What I'm most anxious to see is his blocking, and that won't happen until the pads go on.

* Louis Delmas appears to be the real deal, flying all over the field, breaking up (and intercepting) passes, laying some hits, talking lots of trash, and (apparently) forming an early rapport with Matt Stafford.  Every reporter there  When the Grandmaster was asked if Delmas stood out, he said,"Yeah, he stood out. I think that's obvious to you, me and the American people."

* According to Killer, Zack Follett and DeAndre Levy appeared to be largely similar to Jordon Dizon, in terms of "size and appearance".  The difference, I would like to point out, is that Dizon neither led his conference in tackles for loss, as Follett did, nor boasted legit 4.5 speed, as Levy does.  Follett was a jaw-dropping playmaker all over the field for Cal, and--according to Schwartz himself--Levy's the "thumper" Schwartz was looking for in the middle.  Until the pads go on, we won't know if Levy'll be able to man the middle, but Levy's already put on a few pounds of muscle, and says he's looking to get up to a lean 240.  If he does that, he'll be the same size as Larry Foote, and much faster than Foote's ever been.  As sure of a tackler?  No.  A veteran leader?  No.  But just as big, and much faster--and, thereby, possibly a better fit for Guntherball?  Yes.

* Derrick Williams dropped a few passes on Friday, and struggled to field punts cleanly on Saturday.  Most reports from minicamps around the NFL noted that their rookies looked quite rusty, so I'm going to give Williams the benefit of the doubt there--though, it should be noted that Williams was drafted not for his hands, but for what he does once the ball is in them.

* Sammie Hill looked as advertised: raw but big.  His weight has now creeped up to "330" in the latest Killer article about him.  By training camp, one wonders if he'll be a "lean 400".  All reports were that Hill looked legit amongst his peers out there, but that he wasn't that well-conditioned; he was the first to be sucking wind on Friday.  None of this should come as a huge surprise, seeing as he was used to effortlessly mauling DII competition.

* I didn't hear much about TCU RB Aaron Brown's performances, though Mayhew did say that he can "help us on returns and help us on third downs" over the weekend.

* I've helped stoke the Lydon Murtha flames a bit, but he was held out of practices with a tweaked hammy.  This is not good news for a player whose biggest knock is his inability to stay on the field.  Here's hoping that NFL trainers and conditioning can keep him loose and limber for training camp and the preseason.

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