Justin Durant is a Lion; Another LB In The Works?

. . . and with that, the Lions secured the services of Justin Durant. When we went shopping for outside linebackers in the Old Mother Hubbard series, this is what we found:

The dark horse of the OLB free agent class is Justin Durant, a 6’-1”, 240-pound wrecking ball from the Jaguars—a wrecking ball with a couple of cracks. Just look at the radar chart above: Durant’s stonking +15.5 against the run is second-best in the NFL. His missed tackle rate, one per 8.1 made, is right in the middle of the pack. This suggests, like Bulluck, Durant is slicing through blocking to get to the correct lanes, over and over and over again, showing veteran savvy in just his fourth year, even if his finishing isn’t top-notch.

There are two big concerns about Durant: one is his inability to stay healthy; he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons, plus six games last season. Second, he graded out as poorly against the pass as he did well against the run. His appalling –13.2 on coverage put him fourth-worst in the NFL, and his –1 in pass rush is below-average, too. He’s allowed a slightly-better-than-average 75.6% of his targets to be caught, and his passer rating allowed is dead on NFL average: 98.6, vs. 98.8 . . . but you don’t earn a –13.2 on only 491 snaps without being consistently poor in coverage. Durant has the physical tools to be an impact player, but so far it’s more potential than production.

Where this leaves us is a little bit uncertain. Mike O’Hara reported that the Lions love Durant’s ability to play inside or outside, and certainly his skill set lends itself to a move inside. However, Durant agreed only to a two-year deal; it seems unlikely that he’ll be tabbed to be the new quarterback of the defense.

Indeed, reports indicate that the Lions have laid a massive offer on Stephen Tulloch’s table, which wasn’t retracted when they landed Durant. If Tulloch eventually lands with the Lions (Dave Birkett of the Freep indicated that’s unlikely), he would doubtlessly take over the middle, and Durant would move outside.

Ideally, I think that's the role the Lions envision for Durant: a big, fast, athletic tackler who can shut down half the run game and rush the passer a bit. A good comparison might be Julian Peterson, circa 2009—only Durant will be entering his prime, not past it. Unfortunately, the Lions still need to add either a coverage OLB and keep Levy in the middle, or add a complete MLB and shift Levy outside. I don’t see Durant contributing to the nickel packages, either—he’ll be a two-down beast on the outside if he can stay healthy.

One of the best Jaguars sources out there, Alfie Crow from Big Cat Country, talked with Khaled Elsayed of Pro Football Focus about the Jags’ free agents. Here are some of the things he said about Durant:

Khaled: Though he's more a two down player, you watch Justin Durant sometimes and think he could be one of the top ten linebackers in the league. Granted, in space he can look like one of the worst ten, but give him a two down role and he can really put himself about.

Alfie:As far as Justin Durant, he looked to me a classic case of missed potential. Physically he's what you ask for in a linebacker, but his instincts left a lot to be desired. He'd run himself out of plays and just couldn't stay healthy. More often than not, availability supercedes ability, especially at the linebacker position. He wound up being just average, and average is easily replaceable at linebacker.

Perhaps Justin Durant is, all things considered, an “average” all-around OLB—but as the PFF data shows, that “average” is a tantalizing mix of brilliant and cringeworthy. It’s true that you can get “unremarkable” linebackers anywhere, but brilliant is tough to come by. If the Lions can deploy the “brilliant” for 50% of the snaps, and take him off the field the other half, they might have gotten an incredible value. This jibes with the general approach the Lions have taken: get players with outstanding tools, put them in roles that maximize their talent.

The situation is changing rapidly; I’ve rewritten this post to reflect the latest news several times. But, if the Lions can add Tulloch (or another 3-down ILB like the Packers’ Nick Barnett), they will have massively upgraded the linebacker corps, and the defense as a whole. If they can’t add another top-notch all-around LB, they’ll have two athletic young players in Durant and Levy who can both play inside or outside. Considering they were starting special-teamers last season, even the worst-case scenario looks pretty good.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl free agency,justin durant,stephen tulloch,deandre levy,linebackers

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Old Mother Hubbard: 2011 Detroit Lions Offseason

not looking so bare this year

Those of you who’ve been reading for a while have, I hope, been waiting for my Old Mother Hubbard series, where I review the performance of every Lion on the roster with a chance to make the next roster. It begins soon, enhanced with film grades from Pro Football Focus. I do my own film review, too, but they grade every snap—and moreover, they do it for the entire league.  As the Lions’ roster has improved, it’s vital that we compare it to the rest of the league for context.

Before, we knew that the Lions were at the bottom of the NFL in terms of talent. We knew the roster was flatly awful. But it’s been so long since we’ve seen truly competitive football in Detroit, judging the Lions against only themselves no longer makes sense. So, this year’s Old Mother Hubbard will try to compare every Lion’s 2010 performance to their counterparts across the NFL. If I do it right, it’ll be like a statistical combine, for veterans.

Ah, that’s right, the NFL combine—it’s this weekend. All of this year’s prospective draft picks—save a few at the very top, and a few at the very bottom—will be doing drills and jumps and lifts and sprints this weekend in Indianapolis. More importantly, they’ll be getting their medical evaluations, and be doing their personal interviews.

All of your favorite writers and reporters are down there to cover it live, from Michael Schottey to Dave Birkett to Peter King.  Also, follow Will Carroll, who besides being awesome knows Indy—and everyone in the industry. Also, follow me, @lionsinwinter—because if you like my blogging, you’ll likely like my Tweeting. Don’t forget to read Tom Kowalski’s articles (and watch his vlogs) at Mlive.com, and for general NFL-wide combine updates, the folks at Scout.com just kill it every year.

As for the NFL combine, you can follow it live at NFL.com, as well as on NFL Network. I always make time for the OL and DL position drills, and I suggest you do, too. Also, the bench presses are fun to watch; the strength coach who usually oversees it is a real character.

As for the Lions, well, I haven’t built out their shopping list for this season yet. But, for the first time in years, they’ll actually be drafting for depth instead of for starters. They’ll be drafting players to sit and learn instead of step in and start.  They’ll be drafting players now to be major parts of their future—you know, like real teams do. In a way, it’s not as exciting; without free agency, we’ll be desperate to hear about lots of new starters coming in the door. In another way, it’s much more exciting—it means the cupboard isn’t bare anymore.

Technorati Tags: nfl,nfl draft,nfl combine,detroit lions

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The Lion Prince? Amukamara Works His Tail Off

This, if you can get it to load and run to completion (I can’t, in any browser), is a video about Prince Amukamara’s intense efforts to minimize his 40 time. Few thought during his senior season as the consensus at-least-second-best cornerback in America, he’d be spending this time trying to quiet those doubting his ability. But, partly on advice from Ndamukong Suh, Amukamara will do all the drills at this year’s NFL Combine, looking to prove he’s as good as everyone thinks he is . . . or isn’t . . . or something.

It’s an odd cause-and-effect cycle like this. People watch Amukamara play, they see he’s awesome, they make him Preseason All-America, etc. Then evaluators like Wes Bunting watch film, and say Amukamara’s not worth a Top 10 pick because his straight-line speed is “lacking.” So, in order to answer the questions about his straight-line speed, Amukamara is training to learn how to run really fast in a straight line, in shorts, on a track. Supposing he goes out and cuts a 4.20, what changes about the game tape he laid down? What does that prove about his ability to play in the NFL?

The Combine has gone from a convenient way for scouts to get independent apples-to-apples information on prospects, to a cottage industry with millions of dollars flowing in a circle. Players hire agents, agents pay for training, the trainers boost the players’ draft stock, the player gets paid more, the agent gets paid more, the trainers get more agents referring clients their way . . . everybody wins.

This process bears many strange fruits. There are Darius Heyward-Beys, guys whose eye-popping 40 time causes team to shell out big dough for a guy who can’t play. On the other hand, there are Chris Johnsons whose blazing track times clued teams in to real talent. On the other other hand, there are Joe Hadens, whose lackluster 40 times belie elite on-field ability. On the other other other hand, there are Derrick Williamses, whose slow 40 times reveal a missing top gear.

Let’s be real: Amukamara can play. He’s proven with his play that he can play at the NFL level. The question is, does he possess the extra burst, the elite athletic ability, the splash of habanero required to lock down a Jennings, a Rice, or a theoretical top Chicago receiver? I don’t think his 40 time will prove he does or doesn’t—and even if he does have that potential, cornerback is a position that usually requires development. If Amukamara does fall to the Lions at 13—and many suggest he will—counting on him to shut down his half of the field from day one will be folly.

Last year, Taylor Mays’ “official” 40 time was mysteriously adjusted to be .19 seconds slower than cameras showed, for no apparent reason. There’s never been an explanation for this, and the NFL Network’s frame-by-frame overlap replay proved something was seriously rotten with the NFL’s official times. At this point, what a fast 40 time proves is not that you have elite recovery speed, or can rush the passer, or can beat the fullback to the hole—it proves you either have ridiculous God-given wheels, or you care enough about your career to put your nose to the grindstone and get the very best out of your body. 

So, if you’re watching the NFL Combine this weekend—and after all this, I suggest you do—watch the 40 for fun and oohs and aahs . . . but watch the drills if you want to know what’s really up.

Technorati Tags: nfl,nfl draft,nfl combine,prince amukamara

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