Calvin Johnson NOT for Madden 13 Cover

It is time for this site to officially weigh in on the greatest controversy of our time: whether, or not, to support Calvin Johnson in EA’s quest for the next victim of the Madden Curse. We hereby advise Detroit Lions faithful to vote NO on Calvin Johnson. The Lions in Winter officially endorses Cam Newton for Madden 13 Cover.

Look, do I believe the player on cover of Madden is doomed to fail? About as much as I believe my opening a Guinness causes the Red Wings to score: for fun, yes totally really it’s completely ironcladly true; for serious no I am not a drooling idiot.

The reality of the Madden cover is the same as the reality of the rest of the NFL Fan/Media hivemind, which is to say it's the same as the Pro Bowl or Fantasy Football or any other award: people think what just happened will keep happening, and what hasn’t happened yet won’t happen. A year ago, Peyton Manning was a "lock" to “shatter” all of Brett Favre’s records, and Titus Young’s drafting was two weeks away from being met with boos.

Calvin Johnson’s proven he’s one of the best players in the NFL, even to the Doubting Crises of the world. There’s no accolade, honor, or award whose bestowment or lack thereof can change that. A Lion making the cover of Madden 13 would mean a dramatic undoing of the Millen Era: a time when no Lion was “hot,” or “cool,” or otherwise hyped by the NFL Fan/Media hivemind . . .

. . . except that this is a fan vote.

The marketing whizzes at EA deciding Megatron, out of all other players in the NFL, would move the most copies of Madden 13, would be one thing. But this is a fan vote. Browns fans got Peyton Hillis on the cover last season, which was super-awesome for them and everything because it’s the only thing Browns fans have left to live for.

The sad truth is, it’s all Madden’s got to live for, too. Why? Because the game that taught my generation how football works has dropped the ball. All the flash and glitz and glamour and play modes and TV presentation and stupid virtual trading card games, what even is that get all the development love, while the gameplay gets faster and faster and stupider and stupider. “Who’s on the cover” is Madden’s primary contribution to the universe.

This year, Cam Newton should be on the cover. He’s the avatar of hope for a team that’s gone through some wretched, hopeless seasons lately. The Panthers are a team on the rise, with a new logo to match their new unis and everything. Let them rejoice in the symbol of their resurrection.

Not long ago, we were as as Panthers fans are. Not long ago, Calvin Johnson on the cover of Madden would have been something I cherished. Savored. Clung to and took succor from. “Golly gosh,” I’d think, “a Detroit Lion won a popularity contest! That had players from other teams in it! The future is now!”

The Lions are a playoff team. I’ll cling to that.

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NFL Free Agency: The Detroit Lions Bunker In

Today at 4:00 pm, NFL free agency begins. For the first time in my memory, there will be no 12:02 am faxes to the league office, or midnight gift-bearing showings-up at houses. Free agency will begin in an orderly fashion, just as office workers everywhere would begin looking for football news on the Internet anyway.

Yesterday a lot of contract-y things happened, the upshot of which is Tom Lewand got the Lions under the cap, as he always does. Unfortunately, he did not get them under enough to sign Cliff Avril or Stephen Tulloch to a long-term deal before the deadline.

Here is the situation with Tully: last offseason, he thought his body of work merited a long-term deal, and it did. But he and the Lions were unable to come to terms, so both sides agreed to a one-year deal. This is known as a “prove it” deal: sign a contract, prove you’re worth big money, then get that big-money deal from whoever’s offering it.

Tulloch did his part; he proved it. As the Old Mother Hubbard showed, Tully was one of the best—and most valuable—inside linebackers in the game in 2011. His performance removes all doubt: he is worth the big money he’s sought for years.

Free agency allows a player to earn his market worth. The problem for Stephen Tulloch is, the market doesn’t think he’s worth a whole lot. As Anwar Richardson pointed out, Tulloch is not being targeted by the teams with big money to spend and a hole at MLB. Whether that’s because he doesn’t fit their system, they like someone better, they don’t think they can afford him, the devaluing of the MLB position in a “base nickel” NFL, or what, I couldn’t tell you.

The upshot of it is, there is no team who needs Stephen Tulloch more than the Detroit Lions—so salary cap notwithstanding, there will be no team willing to pay more than the Detroit Lions.

This is all a thought experiment on my part; no hard news or even rumor fuels it. But the vibe I’m picking up is that once again, Tulloch will need the Lions to need him just as much as they indeed need him . . . but first, he has to know for sure; he has to test the market. That’s fine. If and when he comes back, it will be for good.

Calvin Johnson has been the straw that stirs the Lions’ drink for quite some time, and he is once again today. If he the Lions re-sign him to a long-term deal, it could greatly increase breathing room against the cap—and long-term deals with Tulloch and Cliff Avril become much easier to reach. If not, the Lions can retain Avril at his tendered salary—but Tulloch and the Lions will be in limbo for quite a while.

Jeff Backus is also an unrestricted free agent, both both sides seem exclusively intent on Backus returning. As I said on Twitter, it’s so not even a thing that they’re not even talking about it. In fact, I wonder if the tacit plan is to simply wait until the last of the CJ/Avril/Tulloch/Eric Wright dominoes has fallen and then get Backus some money however they can.

I don’t see the Lions as  players for signing other teams’ free agents. The Lions’ roster has matured; there are only a few select roster spots available on either side of the ball. Further, the lack of cap money means they can’t sign starters—and given the choice, I’m sure the Lions prefer to draft their backups.

So don't plan on any excitement today, Lions fans. The offseason is no longer our Super Bowl; the Super Bowl is our Super Bowl. The Lions need to re-sign their guys as best they can, then draft as wisely as they always do.

. . . now, watch them go sign Mario Williams.

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Matthew Stafford Must Learn to Balance Risk

Matthew Stafford has never been accused of being conservative. From high school to college through the combine to the NFL, he's always put his cannon arm to good use. However, for the first time as a pro, Stafford appears gun-shy.

Against Minnesota's beleaguered secondary, Stafford seemed content to take what the defense gave him throughout the second half—even as his Lions watched their lead dwindle. Is Stafford becoming a risk-averse dink-and-dunker? I looked at stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com to find out:

The top (blue) line is Stafford's game-by-game average yards per completion. The bottom (black) line is average yards per attempt. The chart at the bottom has the values for each data point.

This chart tells the story of the Stafford's aggressiveness and effectiveness throughout the year. Look at the difference between the Cowboys game and the first Bears game, Week 4 and Week 5. Stafford's average yards per completion is practically identical: 11.43 versus 11.53. However, his yards per attempt were wildly different: 5.58 versus 8.42.

The difference between those figures is incompletions. Every incomplete pass is a zero-yard attempt, which drags down the YpA. In the games against Dallas, San Francisco, Chicago and Atlanta, the yards per completion was nearly flat at around 12; he was going deep in all four games. But his YpA was below six—extremely low—against Dallas, San Francisco and Atlanta.

Stafford was throwing deep whether or not it was working. At the time, I wrote that he needed to step up, to be confident in the pocket and execute the offense. To find his second and third options instead of bombing it downfield to Calvin Johnson every time he's under pressure.

Since then, Stafford's risk/reward balance has been wildly inconsistent. Against the Broncos, Panthers and Saints, Stafford was both aggressive and effective. His completions averaged 12.63 yards across those three games, and his attempts averaged an outstanding 9.18.

At Soldier Field, and on Thanksgiving, Stafford was extremely conservative and much less effective. His average completion gained just 9.31 yards, and his average attempt netted just 5.6. Calvin Johnson was used heavily in the slot and on short crossing routes; the Lions used him like a Keyshawn Johnson-style possession receiver.

I expected to see Stafford and the Lions take advantage of the depleted Vikings secondary—but their game plan seemed very risk-averse, especially once they established an early lead. In the third quarter, I saw Stafford pass up a wide-open touchdown. The television broadcast cut the dramatic proof off, but this is the play:

Let's examine this a little more closely.

Pre-snap, Calvin Johnson is at the top of the screen, to Matthew Stafford's right. At the bottom (Stafford's left) is Nate Burleson. The Lions have two tight ends to the strong (right) side, and Maurice Morris in at tailback.

At the beginning of the clip, just before the snap, Stafford's eyes are right on Vikings strong safety Jamarca Sanford, showing blitz. Cornerback Asher Allen is lined up perpendicular to the line of scrimmage, trying to deny Calvin Johnson the outside. The read should be single coverage; Stafford should be looking for Johnson deep.

At the snap, there is play action to the weak side, then Stafford bootlegs back to the strong side. Both tight ends go out: Tony Scheffler down the seam and Brandon Pettigrew on a short out route.

Sanford, the blitzing strong safety, flies towards the run action but wisely picks up on the play fake. He hits the brakes, and turns to chase Pettigrew to the sideline.

Here's where you're going to have to trust me. Calvin Johnson, just off-frame, breaks inside, then quickly towards the sideline. Allen bites on the first move and Johnson gets WIDE DIRTY OPEN on the second. Watch the clip again: you can see Stafford look downfield and pat the ball once, twice, looking at Johnson the whole way. Stafford then gives up and fires it to Pettigrew for an easy four-yard gain.

Maybe Stafford was spooked by the approaching presence of Jared Allen. Maybe Johnson waited too long to make his move. Maybe Stafford just wanted the sure thing. But on 1st-and-10 from the 40-yardline? Up 31-14? That's the perfect time to take a shot deep.

Johnson was left all alone, two steps behind his only defender—in an offense where single coverage is supposed to equate an automatic ball his way.

The Lions didn't know it then, but after scoring 31 points in the first quarter, they would only muster one field goal in the whole second half. Stafford passed up a golden opportunity to put the Vikings away here, and that lack of killer instinct nearly cost them the game.

If the Lions are going to beat the Oakland Raiders in the Black Hole in December, Stafford must do a better job of balancing risk and reward.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Wide Receivers

Finishing up the Old Mother Hubbard series, post-draft, seems anti-climatic. However, there’s plenty of offseason left (maybe too much), and this cupboard isn’t done being restocked. To that end, we dig into the Pro Football Focus grades for wide receivers:

In this case, “Pass” refers to their grades in the passing game, i.e. their receiving performance. “Run” refers to their performance when running the football (on reverses, etc.). Unlike tight ends, run blocking and pass blocking are consolidated into “Blocking,” as receivers rarely pass block. The bright orange line represents Brandon Lloyd, the wideout who turned in the best overall grade. His +24 is predicated almost entirely on his +23.4 receiving grade (the other dimensions have little variation, and therefore little impact on the overall grade). Should we be surprised that Darrius Heyward-Bey is bringing up the rear? His –14 overall grade is the worst of any NFL wideout.

There’s a little thing in research called “confirmation bias,” where you seek out objective facts that confirm your preconceptions. That the Lions drafted a speedy receiver with their second pick suggests the Lions saw a need that had to be filled. I simply have to acknowledge this: I’m curious to see why the Lions thought they should pick a wideout so high, especially one whose game superficially matches Nate Burleson’s. I’m going to do this straight, but keep an eye out for signals that there’s a need to stretch the field.

The Lions’ WR corps is the most divergent unit on the team. Most of the other positions’ players are clustered around the thick black AVERAGE line, with only a few strong deviations in either direction. However, Calvin Johnson was PFF’s third-best graded receiver in 2010, with a very strong +14 overall grade. That was powered by a +14.5 receiving grade, and only having a single penalty called against him all year. He also had a (very) slightly above-average rushing grade.

Surprisingly, Megatron’s blocking grade was awful. He turned in a –3.1 blocking mark, well below the NFL average of –1.27, and ranked 94th out of 110 receivers. We don’t play Megatron to block, but you’d think a dude who has half a foot and sixty pounds on most corners could do better than that without breaking a sweat.

Statistically, Calvin caught 77 of 131 passes thrown at him; his percentage of passes caught is actually a little below-average at 58.8% (NFL average: 59.6%). Part of this is definitely due to system and quarterbacking. The top receiving percentage guys are typically slot receivers in pass-first, multi-WR offenses featuring quality quarterbacks; Megatron is a #1 wideout in a conventional offense driven by very inconsistent quarterback play last year. Still, I’d expected Calvin to be better than the mean at getting to, and hauling in, footballs.

Perhaps it's in the way they use him? Megatron was thrown at once every 7.8 snaps, exactly the NFL average. His yards per reception, 14.5, is definitely a notch above average, 13.2. But his touchdowns . . . well, his 13 12 vastly outstrip the league average of 4. It was my eyeball observation that the Lions tended to move between the 30s with passes to slot WRs, TEs, and RBs, then take shots at the endzone with Calvin once they got close. I divided receptions by touchdowns and . . . yup! Megatron was 10th in the NFL with 6.4 receptions per touchdown (4th with 5.9 if you count the Chicago Robbery). If the Lions were throwing to Calvin, they were often taking a shot at the end zone.

Bottom Line: Calvin Johnson was one of the NFL’s best receivers in 2010, despite being targeted the average number of times, primarily in the red zone, by a rotating cast of quarterbacks. If he and Matthew Stafford play all 16 games in 2011, expect Megatron to be #1 by a long shot.

The neon-green line a little ways inside of AVERAGE is Nate Burleson, the Lions’ second-splashiest free agent acquisition of 2010. Burleson turned in a –2.7 receiving grade, which couldn’t be offset by his run grade (+1.6, tied with Devin Hester for third-best in the NFL), or his relatively clean penalty grade. His very-slightly-below-average blocking performance (-1.4) didn’t help either.

Burleson’s negative grade didn’t come entirely from dropped passes, as Brandon Pettigrew’s clearly did. Burleson was ranked 56th in snaps-per-drop, with 17.0 (avg.: 17.6)—not great, but barely off the NFL median and mean. His YAC was excellent; 18th-best in the NFL with 5.6. He also made a defender miss on a post-catch tackle 8 times on just 55 receptions—the 21st-highest rate in the NFL (6.9 Rec./MT; NFL avg. 10.8).

That is the end of the good news for Burleson—who, outside of two great games against the Jets and Dolphins (+2.9, +3.4), turned in neutral or weakly negative grades the rest of the year (none worse than his –1.8 week one; most not nearly that low). He also, despite his well-above-average YAC rate, could only muster 11.4 yards per reception. Think about that: he ran for an average of 5.6 yards after every catch, but only gained 11.4 yards on an average catch. He caught the ball an average of 5.8 yards downfield! The picture this all paints is of a slightly-below-average receiver who struggles to get open deep—but becomes a genuine threat once the ball is in his hands.

Bottom Line: Nate Burleson proved to be a valuable asset, often getting open short and manufacturing yards in space when there were none to be had. However, he failed to provide a credible threat across from Calvin Johnson, instead carving out a niche in underneath the coverage. “Recepticon” has a future in this offense, but it will be much brighter if he can work in the space created by a legitimate deep threat.

Bryant Johnson is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Unfortunately, PFF’s grades are not kind to him. Johnson’s –13.1 overall grade is second-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Darrius Heyward-Bey. His –13.5 receiving grade is at the very bottom; it’s only his total lack of penalties called that pull him up above Heyward-Bey. His 37.5% of targets caught is also second-worst in the league; dropping 7 passes on just 48 targets didn’t help.

Here’s one positive tidbit for Johnson, though: his 4.2 catches per missed tackle means he was the third-hardest WR to bring down in the NFL. Should he happen to catch the ball, Bryant Johnson is tough to stop.

Bottom Line: Bryant Johnson struggled mightily to catch the ball in 2010, as he did in 2009. Though his body type and tool set would be the perfect complement to draw coverage away from Megatron and open up space for Burleson, his inability to catch the ball strips him of any credible threat—and of any real chance of returning for 2010.

Derrick Williams is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Williams's commitment to giving back to the Detroit community is as impressive as it is unheralded. Unfortunately, PFF’s graders took a dim view of his 2010 performance, as well. Williams, whose 154 snaps didn’t qualify him for the 25% cutoff, only saw time in weeks 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, and 13.

His –6 overall rating and –4.8 receiving rating didn’t come from doing a bad job catching the ball. The problem was, he was never open: in 154 snaps played, Lions quarterbacks only targeted him three times. Astonishingly, that’s the exact same number of penalty flags he drew (though one was called back).

Bottom Line: Despite being, by all appearances, a great guy and a good teammate, Williams’ single reception for 7 yards was probably the former #1 recruit in America’s last as a Lion.

SHOPPING LIST: Though no one identified WR as a need prior to the draft, had I managed to crank this one out I’d have been screaming from the mountaintops about this one, too. Calvin Johnson is a flat-out stud, Nate Burleson is a quality slot ninja, and after that the Lions have two guys who’ve proven they can’t help, and practice squadders like Brian Clark and Tim Toone. The need for a wideout with legitimate downfield speed and NFL hands to go with it was, in fact, desperate—and the Lions may have filled it with Titus Young.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,2011 nfl draft,calvin johnson,nate burleson,titus young,boise state,team needs

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Tinderbox: NFL Defines Catch; Still Wrong on Calvin

Yesterday, ProFootballTalk talked to Rich McKay, the NFL’s Competition Committee chair, about the catch/no-catch thing. You should watch/listen to the whole thing, but here’s a money quote:

That rules has gotten more complicated as we've gotten into super slow-mo. As in the Lance Moore play where literally, people look at that frame-by-frame and go "Well, that's a catch," and then you turn it on full speed and go, "Eh, that's not a catch."

This is valid. With people at home watching on 60” plasmas getting digital frame-by-frame replay ability, there’s an ability to split hairs finely—so finely it transcends what’s possible to see at full speed, divorcing these players from the flow of time. If a player only possessed a ball for 1/24th of a second, did he really possess it?

I’m glad they decided to take a step back to the fundamental concept of a catch, and apply it to all the catch rules going forward.  As I’ve said, there were multiple different rules, and multiple different (conflicting) phrases governing the same play. So, McKay says, they started from the three fundamental elements of a catch: you have to get two hands firmly on the ball, be in-bounds, and have a “time element:” an affirmative moment where there’s no doubt that the player has the ball and could do something with the ball.

Further, I agree with the idea that the burden should be on the receiver, not the refs: catch the ball, then keep catching the ball until everyone knows for damn sure that you caught the ball. If you catch a touchdown, hold on to that ball until you can walk over and flip it to the ref. Now that everyone knows full well that just catching the ball, coming down with two feet, your knee, your butt, and one hand isn’t enough to prove possession, nobody has an excuse going forward.

That all having been said? Calvin Johnson caught that ball for a touchdown. I know it, you know it, and the side judge with an unobstructed, close-up view of the whole thing knew it—emphatically signalling the touchdown. The only slow-mo, post-hoc lawyering that occurred was done by the referee, and by Mike Pereira. Everyone who it at full speed, including the players, announcers, coaches, fans, and refs, knew what happened. It was only in the super-slow-mo frame-by-frame that words were parsed, and truth was made into lies. That was a catch, and a touchdown, and the Lions won that game. Period.

Technorati Tags: nfl,rich mckay,mike pereira,rules,calvin johnson,referees

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The NFL, Calvin Johnson, and Trust

Forbes.com said the “Trust is gone” in NFL labor negotiations.

The National Football Post said it’s an “Issue of Trust.”

SI.com thought the lack of trust between league and players didn't bode well.

The players didn’t trust the owners when they said revenue structuring was required for the health of the league. The owners didn’t trust the players enough to open the books and prove it to them. Now the fans don’t trust either the owners or the players. The owners don’t even trust each other . . . now, Commissioner Goodell has sent a letter to every NFL player, trying to erode their trust in each other.

But that’s not what I want to talk about. Even though I’m late to the party on this, it’s worth bringing up again: the NFL’s competition committee ruled that there will be no Calvin Johnson rule; they will not review the language that describes what is and isn’t a catch in the end zone. Though the way the Going-to-Ground rule was applied and interpreted flatly contradicts the text and intention of the rule, and Calvin’s game-winning catch clearly passed Brad Childress’s “50 drunks in a bar” standard, the NFL  is just fine with the rule as-is—though they might scribble in some of Mike Pereira’s made-up language to make it look good.

The CBA, the lockout, the union, the owners . . . we can forgive all that. $40 parking, $8 beer, $4 bottles of water you can’t have the cap of, so your kid immediately spills it everywhere . . . we can forgive that, too. Paying hundreds of dollars a year for NFL Sunday Ticket, two minutes of ads before and after every kick and punt? We can probably even forgive that, too . . . just don’t mess with the game.

The NFL is a professional football league. We pay to watch football be played at its highest level. The best players, the best coaches, the best officials, the best stadiums, that’s what we want to see, week in and week out. Unfortunately, the NFL no longer thinks of itself as a sport, but as a television product. What did Roger Goodell have to say about this year’s Super Bowl? He called it “the most-watched show in television history.” Not event, “show.” Meanwhile, hundreds of fans paid astronomical prices for legitimate tickets that didn’t correspond to actual seats.

It’s undeniable: the league now considers itself a television product first, a spectator sport second—and who can blame them? The NFL’s ratings, time slot, and demographics bring in unprecedented truckloads of carrier and advertiser revenue. It doesn’t matter whether the outcome is fair, as long as you keep watching.

The NFL is a long way from MTV Celebrity Deathmatch, or even the WWE. I’ve never believed the NFL is “rigged,” or that predetermined outcomes would even be possible in an NFL game with 90 active players, 30+ coaches and assistants, and seven on-field officials. However, rulings like this pull the game closer and closer to “Sports Entertainment:”

Sports entertainment is a type of spectacle which presents an ostensibly competitive event using a high level of theatrical flourish and extravagant presentation, with the purpose of entertaining an audience.

Throughout my lifetime, every time the NFL has changed a rule, it’s made the game better. Instant replay is a great example: the NFL was first to adopt it, and first to decide that unlimited replay dragged too much on the game. They abolished it, then brought it back in limited form when the technology allowed it to be fast. They’ve continued to fine-tune it throughout the years, constantly balancing the need to get calls right with the cost of interrupting the flow of the game. Even when I’ve disagreed with the NFL’s individual decisions on replay, I’ve always understood their thinking, and applauded their efforts.

I have no idea what they’re thinking now. You won’t find any observer of football that believes Calvin Johnson didn’t really catch that ball, or didn’t really score a touchdown—just those who’ll point at the NFL’s rules, and nonsensical interpretation of them. Clearly, defining a catch five different ways (in bounds, at a boundary, non-scoring/scoring, going to ground) has dumped muddy gray paint all over the rulebook; that the Competition Committee looks at it and sees a “bright line” makes me wonder what their motivation could possibly be.

When you combine it all with the CBA, the lockout, the $40 parking, the $8 beer, the $4 bottles of water you can’t have the cap of, so your kid immediately spills it everywhere, the hundreds of dollars a year for NFL Sunday Ticket, and the two minutes of ads before and after every kick and punt, it makes me not trust the NFL.

Technorati Tags: nfl,calvin johnson,nfl lockout,mike pereira,rules

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Presenting TLiW's Inagural Blue Flame Awards

Since it’s award season on the Internets, with everyone handing out notional hardware for their Ten Best ------ or ------ Of The Year, I decided to try bestowing some completelly meaningless, but mildly entertaining, honors of my own.  Behold: the inaugural, and possibly annual, Blue Flame Awards!

• Game of The Year: Detroit Lions 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 20

  This was a difficult choice.  Of course, my indelible memory from this year will be my son’s first Lions game, against the Jets.  But in a season with five-and-counting wins, one of the ten heartbreaking losses can’t be the game of the year.  The completely improbable 7-3 defeat of the Packers will stand out as the Lions’ most impressive victory, the tallest giant they toppled.  But the win that snapped the Lions’ road streak gets my vote as the Game of the Year.  It featured the game of Drew Stanton’s life, a sustained rushing attack, a masterful drive to tie the game, and a suspense-ending first-possession overtime victory.  Drama.  Majesty.  Victory on the road against a quality opponent.  Game of the Year.

• Tom Moore Coach of The Year: Scott Linehan, Offensive Coordinator

  Three different quarterbacks have started (and won) football games for this team, and Linehan has done a flatly masterful job of tailoring the offense to the strengths of each.  A downfield aerial attack with Stafford in, a high-percentage shell game with TEs and RBs in the slot with Shaun Hill, and an wild grab bag of quarterback runs, running back by committee (if not an entire Congress), and quick slants with Drew Stanton in.  For most of the season, the Lions have been in the top ten in the NFL in scoring (they’re currently 14th).  Considering the revolving door at quarterback, their nearly-a-touchdown-per-game improvement in scoring over last year (from 16.4 ppg to 22.8) borders on miraculous.  Honorable Mention: Gunther Cunningham, defensive coordinator; Kris Kocurek, defensive line coach.

• Barry Sanders Cannot Hope To Stop Him Award: Calvin Johnson, WR

  Given to the most dominant offensive player, this award was a complete no-brainer.  For reference, see Johnson’s preposterous 46-yard touchdown catch against the Bears.  He consistently presents a nightmare matchup to any defense in the NFL, anywhere he is on the field.  Just before “print time,” Calvin was named a Pro Bowl starter.  Honorable Mention: Jahvid Best, RB

• Mike Cofer Tecmo Super Bowl Beast Mode Award:  Ndamukong Suh, DT

  Given to the most dominant defensive player, this award was much harder to give out.  For starters, an argument could be made that Suh, despite the numbers, has not even been the most consistently dominant defensive lineman on the roster.  Corey Williams has been a force against both the run and the pass, and Cliff Avril has blossomed into the edge rusher we all thought he could be.  But Ndamukong Suh, in a position that practically demands two or three years of physical maturation, has brought down the enemy quarterback nine times in his rookie season, leading all NFL DTs.  Further, he’s done it against frequent double-teams.  He’s still against the run, and some of his sacks have more to do with pursuit than penetration—but Suh is a monster talent who’s already dominant—as of this writing, he’d just been named a starter in the Pro Bowl—and is nowhere near his ceiling.  Honorable Mention: Corey Williams, DT; Cliff Avril, DE

• Mel Gray Three Phases of the Game Award: (tie) Stefan Logan, PR/KR/WR; John Wendling, ST

  I couldn't just pick one of these two as the most game-changing special teams player of the year.  Logan’s long, dynamic returns consistently shortened the field for the offense—and once, even put points on the board.  Logan was also a willing and able tackler on the kick coverage unit.  Wendling consistently lengthened the field for the opponent with his amazing play as a punt gunner, both with on-the-spot tackles of opposing returners, and heroic kills of Nick Harris’s punts.

• Chris Spielman Heart of a Lion Award: Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE

  Given to the Lion who most profoundly exudes fire, toughness, and determination to win, KVB had this one sewn up Week 1.  His ten-tackle, sideline-to-sideline performance against the Bears was one of the most incredible single games any defensive Lion has had in my memory—singlehandedly willing the Lions to victory.  He clearly set the tone for the Lions’ best unit, both on the field and off.  His approach to practice, preparation, training, and games were cited by coaches and teammates alike as the model for the rest of the squad.  Honorable Mention: Drew Stanton, QB; Dominic Raiola, C

•   Bryant Westbrook Realized Potential Award: Cliff Avril, DE Cliff Avril, perhaps the prototypical 3-4 rush OLB, was as surprised as anyone when Rod Marinelli drafted him to play as a 4-3 end.  After his rookie season, where he picked up 5 sacks in just four starts, it looked as though the third-round pick was going to quickly develop into the Lions’ premier pass rusher.  However, a change to a philosophy that emphasizes bigger ends, and a lingering hamstring injury, stunted his growth in 2009.  Gunther publicly questioned his “mean streak.”  However, he showed up to OTAs and blew the coaches away with his preparedness, physically and mentally.  He immediately locked down a starting spot, and has racked up eight sacks so far this year—including three against Green Bay.  He responded to the loss of KVB by taking his play to the next level; a sure sign that he has arrived.  Honorable Mention: DeAndre Levy, MLB

• Commenter Matt TLiW Commenter of the Year Award: echo

Those of you who’ve been reading for a long time know that “Matt” has been a prolific, intelligent, and well-spoken commenter since nearly the beginning.  I’m going to name the award after him—but I’m going to give this year’s award to “echo,” who blew up the Emmitt vs. Barry: By the Numbers post with page after page of incredibly well-researched info.  Given how high that post ranks for “Barry vs. Emmitt” searches, echo has done the whole world a permanent favor.  Thanks, man.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,ndamukong suh,cliff avril,scott linehan,calvin johnson,stefan logan,john wendling,kyle vanden bosch

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Three Cups Deep: Lions at Buccaneers

Again.  Again, the Lions’ defense—which had held the opponent in check all game long—had turned to wet tissue in the fourth quarter.  Again, the Lions had one drive to win or lose the game.  Again, I knew, the Lions would get a couple of first downs and then either commit the big turnover, or the stupid penalty.  If the universe was feeling especially cruel, I knew, the Lions would get within decently-easy field goal range--then miss the field goal.  Having lived my entire life a Lions fan, I knew the question wasn’t how the Lions could win, but how they would lose.

It wasn't helping my sense of foreboding that the scoreboard showed exactly what I'd predicted in my ill-formed not-Watchtower: 17-20 Lions.  Drew Stanton took over at the 32, and immediately threw an incomplete pass.  2nd-and-10, and memories of the Eagles game flooded my head: the would-be tying “drive” merely four straight incompletions.  But then, Drew went to work.  Alternately hitting Bryant Johnson and Calvin Johnson—and, my Lord, what a catch Calvin Johnson made—Drew got the Lions into field goal range. 

The first time my heart stopped was when Drew took at shot at the end zone,  going again to Bryant Johnson, whose defender had slipped downfield.  With the pass sailing clean into the end zone, Bryant couldn’t quite get his wheels underneath him, either, and a sure touchdown bounced harmlessly off the turf.  Why?  WHY?

Drew kept his head on, though, and completed a pass to Scheffler that brought the Lions to the Buccaneers’ ten-yard-line with just eight seconds left.  Now, it was real.  Now, the Lions faced a true choice: should they take a shot at the end zone—and lose by interception, or clock?  Or, should they try a 28-yard field goal that, despite its close range, was guaranteed to be shanked, blocked, bad-snap’d, or some other awful thing that’s never even happened before?  I thought to myself, I’d rather the Lions lose on a Drew Stanton interception while going for the win, than by Mysterious Dave Rayner Miss while going for the tie.  Fortunately, Schwartz keeps big brass ones downstairs, and they went for the jugular. 

The fade pass that Drew Stanton threw was perfect.  Perfect.  He put it exactly where it needed to be, and Calvin went up and over the cornerback for it, as he’d done many times before.  Myron Lewis, the Bucs’ cornerback, simply made a great play.  If he didn’t play that absolutely perfectly, the game would have ended right there.  Another game-winning Lions touchdown bounced harmlessly off the turf.  I crumpled.

So Dave Rayner and the Lions set up to kick on the sloppy, nasty grass, and I bit my nails and paced nervously and chain smoked and everything old cartoon characters do when everything is on the line.  I flop-sweated, I whimpered quietly, my knees knocked (even though I was sitting on the edge of my seat).  Then the snap, the kick . . . good.  The Lions would delay their heartbreaking loss—and my heartbreak—for a little while longer.

But then, something funny happened: the Lions won the toss.  That’s not how this script goes.  That’s not what’s supposed to happen.  Come on Universe, I thought, don’t play me like this.  Don’t get me believing it could happen.  Don’t make this hurt more than it already will!  But  the script had flipped: it was the Jets game in reverse.  The Lions could not be denied:  Maurice Morris and Jahvid Best gashed the Bucs for yards and yards.  Drew hit Calvin Johnson again, and Mo Morris shaved another ten yards off.  Rayner lined up, and my last nerves unravelled. 

The snap, the kick, the hold . . . GOOD!  GOOD!  GOOD!  JIM SCHWARTZ FIST PUMP!  MEGATRON SMILE A BILLBOARD WIDE!  THE STREAK IS OVER!  THE STREAK IS OVER!  THE STREAK IS OVER!  Our family jumped for joy, hugging and hooting and hollering and high-fiving all over the living room.  For once, for once, this game ended the right way.

Later that night, as I was getting ready for our kids' Christmas pageant, I noticed something in the mirror: there, at the edge of my goatee, was my very first gray hair.

I love this stupid team so much.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,tampa bay buccaneers,calvin johnson,drew stanton

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Three Cups Deep: Lions vs. Bears

A couple of years ago, I had what might be called a quarterlife crisis.  I’d just bought a minivan—relegating my newish five-door Pontiac Vibe to pointlessly capacious commuter duty.  In a move designed to both lower my car payment and raise my self-esteem, I decided to trade it in for an older two-seat convertible.  After months of looking for just the right car, negotiating with the dealer, dealing with the bank, navigating my way through the credit crunch, and getting the stamp of approval from Mrs. Inwinter, I finally got everything arranged.  All the pieces were in place, all the numbers were crunched—and though the deal went right down to the absolute bottom dollar, I knew I had finally gotten what I wanted.

I called the dealer to arrange pickup.  When I asked what I needed to bring with me, he said “Your proof of insurance, title, and payoff statement.”  With fresh memories of the test drive whizzing through my head, I asked my bank to fax over a copy of the payoff statement.  They did so.  It was a thousand dollars higher than I thought it’d be.

To this day I don’t know how I screwed this up, but I thought I’d owed exactly one thousand dollars less than I really did.  There was nothing to be done; I’d already spent a week going back and forth to make it happen.  I’d negotiated so hard that at one point, I was in a room with the salesman, the sales manager, the service manager, and the general manager, bending them all to my will.  To suddenly be a thousand dollars apart meant it was over.

I halfheartedly kept searching for another car, another deal, but it wasn’t meant to be.  I was, I thought, thirty minutes away from swapping keys and driving a real, live sports car home . . . instead, I was back in the wagon.  I was crushed, and for a long time felt fated—doomed, even—to drive this car into the ground.  Sadly, I consigned myself to waiting for my midlife crisis.

In the meantime, though, it’s become easy to remember why I bought this Vibe to begin with: it’s big inside without being big outside, it gets great mileage, and—with a stick—is surprisingly fun to drive, even with five doors and a sewing machine engine.  It’s far from what I wanted, and even farther from what I imagine I’ll be in the market for come Model Year 2031.  But even though it doesn’t put the “permagrin” on my face, I’ve spent a few years wringing enjoyment from this ride; I know how to be happy with it.  I know exactly how hard I can push it around every corner on my commute.  I know that with a well-timed downshift, I can coax just enough “zing” from it to gleefully thumb my nose at an oblivious cell-phone-jabbering Saturn Vue owner as I pass them with authority.

In some ways, it’s pathetic; I’m psyching myself into getting my he-man car-guy rocks off within the context of posted speed limits.  But in other ways, it’s simply acknowledging reality: I’m a happily committed family man, working hard to give my kids every opportunity that I can.  I’m not going to eat my cake unless my family can have it, too—and that day just isn’t here yet.  So, I’m making do with what I’ve got—and frankly, I’m more blessed than many around these parts these days.

Being happy while following this Lions team is much the same.  It isn’t what I want—and God knows That Glorious Day has seemed right around the corner so many times.  But . . . this is what I’ve got.  I’m a Lions fan.  If I tried to drape myself in the colors of a winner, it would be a hollow lie.  Until the day comes when the Lions win games consistently, I’m going to revel in the glory of Calvin Johnson stiff-arming half the Bears’ defense en route to the end zone.  I’m going to go crazy about Cliff Avril picking up the slack for an injured KVB with a three-sack masterpiece of a breakdout performance.  And, yes, I’m going to queue up YouTube and watch Drew Stanton run for paydirt and do something vaguely resembling “the Dougie.”

I’m not going to let this team’s limitations, inexperience, and bad luck ruin my Sundays; I’m just going to watch and cheer and hope, and cherish the good stuff that happens while the snows roll in.  It’s going to be a long, long winter when this season’s said and done . . . maybe the longest winter yet.  With an NFL lockout looming on the horizon, it’s possible that there might not even be Lions football in 2011.  So, please, don’t tune out.  Don’t unplug.  Don’t let Packers fans take over our stadium next week.  Don’t miss out on the really cool moments this team is generating, even without some of their best players.    Make do with what you’ve got, and be thankful you’ve got something to make do with at all.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,chicago bears,drew stanton,jim schwartz,cliff avril

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The Watchtower: Lions at Vikings

 

Last week’s game against the Eagles had a hint of desperation: both teams were coming off the heels of a painful loss, and both teams lost their starting quarterbacks in the process.  But if that game had a hint of desperation about it, this game is absolutely dripping with desperation.  The Lions are 0-2, and fans would give almost anything to get on the board and know 0-16 won’t happen again.  The Vikings dragged Brett Favre back from Mississippi, kicking and screaming, to win a Super Bowl—and yet, they also find themselves at 0-2. 

Brad Childress vs. Gunther Cunningham

Chilly	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Fum	Sack
PHI	TEN	4	25.9	6.18	4.54	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	24	5.89	2	3.66	1-1	6-31
PHI	KCC	18	19.4	5.93	3.92	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	37	7.69	1	5.33	3-1	1-1
MIN	DET	2nd	29.4	7.18	4.15	32nd	30.9	7.78	4.42	27	6.04	0	4.5	2-1	2-1
MIN	DET	2nd	29.4	7.18	4.15	32nd	30.9	7.78	4.42	27	11.10	0	4.90	2-2	1-4

All the in-division foes grant me the luxury of two meetings a year.  The 2009 Vikings were especially Watchtowerable opponents; serving as a perfect case study for why I do this.  In the first Vikings Watchtower analysis, I concluded:

We see the same pattern in all three games; therefore I feel safe concluding the following: given equal or lesser talent and execution, Gunther Cunningham’s hyperaggressive 4-3 disproportionately disrupts Brad Childress’s conservative Walsh-style offense, especially in the running game. However, a very effective deep passing game can stretch the defense, reduce QB pressure, and produce points.

In the second Vikings Watchtower, I fairly well crowed about the how the offensive output of the Vikings was indeed much lower than expected, and boldly predicted the pattern would repeat itself in the second game as well:

Rather than attempt to decide which dimension of the Vikings' offense holds the iocaine, let's go right back to the data. Despite the second-best offense in the NFL meeting the second-worst defense, that offense underperformed its season averages. I originally concluded that the Gunther Cunningham 4-3 disproportionately disrupts Childress’ conservative flavor, and that conclusion was indisputably correct.

Now, I didn’t make an actual prediction for the game beyond “a medium-to-low scoring slugfest”; I was just starting this feature, and hadn’t refined it to the level I have now. Therefore, I’ll simply refine my original prediction: Given a huge talent and execution advantage, but a definite systemic disadvantage, I expect the Vikings will meet or slightly underperform their season averages: scoring 27-30 points, passing for 6.75-7.0 yards per attempt, and rushing for 3.75-4.0 yards per carry. I have very high confidence in this prediction.

I stuck my neck pretty far out there with that “very high confidence” bit, especially as it’s quite rare for two teams to play each other twice in one season and have duplicate results.  Nevertheless, that’s exactly what happened; the Vikings were again held to 27 points.  Twice the second-ranked, scoring-29.4-points-per-game Vikings offense faced the dead-last-ranked, allowing-30.9-points-per-game defense, and twice they scored only 27 points.  Clearly, whether it’s through scheme or playcalling, the Lions’ defense “has the Vikings’ number.”

Astoundingly, the Vikings have the second-lowest-scoring offense in the NFL, averaging just 9.5 points through the first two games.  Granted, those two defenses are the Saints and the Dolphins, currently 10th and 1st in the NFL in scoring defense, but still—the Vikings aren’t playing like they did in 2009.  With a mere 6.3 YpA, the passing offense that was so successful last season looks completely pedestrian in 2010.

I’m not certain I buy it.  It’s true that Favre is missing his favorite target from last season, Sydney Rice—and it’s true that Favre’s offensive line is in the process of crossing the line between “experienced” to “old”.  Still, I don’t think the Silver Fox is completely out of magic.  An awakening is due, and a home game against the Lions seems like the perfect wake-up call.

Still, Rice isn’t coming back this week, and new WR addition Hank Baskett is unlikely to make an impact in his first game in purple.  If we blame the Vikings’ precipitous drop in effectiveness on Rice, and a rusty Ironman, the Lions should still be facing these Vikings as they are.  The Vikes are averaging ten points a game, having faced two top ten defenses.  We can posit that against the Lions’ twenty-seventh ranked scoring defense (27.0 ppg), they should score something more like 20-23 points.

Given a slight advantage in execution, and a proven systemic advantage, I expect the Vikings to perform slightly below expectations.  With little data about the Vikings’ 2010 offensive norms, I project them to score 17-20 points.  I project them to throw for 6.5-7.0 YpA, and rush for 4.5-4.75 YpA.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences

Well, Brett Favre is Brett Favre, and when Brett Favre Brett Favres ya, you just never know what’s coming and then BOOM!  The Lions, as a franchise, have never beaten Brett Favre on his own turf, and there’s a reason for that: Favre is the greatest quarterback of all time, and the Lions have been perennially terrible on the road, and against the pass.  They may be better at both this season, but enough to finally take down #4?  That’s still a big ask, as humbled as the great one may currently be.

Scott Linehan vs. Leslie Frazier

Lin	Fraz	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Fum	Sack
MIN	TBB	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	1st	12.2	4.88	3.79	24	7.78	2	7.52	3-11	2-1
MIN	IND	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	19th	21.9	7.15	4.43	28	8.89	0	5.75	2-1	2-15
MIA	TBB	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	8th	17.1	6.15	3.46	13	6.21	0	3.56	3-2	4-24
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	13	5.07	2	3.79	2-1	2-16
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	10	4.39	0	4.23	2-1	3-20

In the first Vikings Watchtower, I concluded:

given greater or equal talent, Scott Linehan’s balanced offense significantly outperforms its averages when facing a Dungy-style Tampa 2, especially against the run. Given lesser talent, Linehan’s offense meets or mildly outperforms expectations against a T2. However, a disproportionate amount of sacks and turnovers seem to be created by a Tampa 2 when facing a Linehan offense.

Though I wasn't projecting specific point totals at that point in my Watchtowering, I felt as though the 13-point, 2-sack, 2-INT performance by the Lions' offense bore out my conclusion.  From the second Watchtower:

I originally concluded that given lesser talent, Scott Linehan’s balanced offense meets or slightly exceeds expectations against a Dungy-style defense, even while allowing more sacks and/or turnovers. This conclusion was confirmed by the results of Week 2.

Again, I’ll refine my original prediction: with lesser talent, and therefore a small-to-zero systemic advantage, the Lions will slightly underperform, or approach, their season averages: 14-17 points scored, 5.0-5.25 YpA, and 3.75-4.0 YpC. I have very high confidence in this prediction.

The Lions actually fell slightly short of this projection, mustering only ten points.  Stafford didn’t throw an interception—but this was accomplished by almost never taking a risk.  The miniscule 4.39 YpA (51 attempts for only 224 yards!) shows the extensive degree to which the Lions were ankle-biting.  If they have any hope of beating Brett Favre and the Vikings this time around, they will not be able to do it by throwing it no farther than they could run it.

So far this year, the Lions are scoring at a well-above-average clip, 23.0 PpG.  This is good for 10th-best in the NFL (though, of course, with only two games played, it’s hard to assign that fact much weight).  The Vikings’ offense has slipped, but the defense is as stout as ever—through two games, they’ve allowed only 21 offensive points to the Saints and Dolphins combined.  It’s worth noting that this same Saints offense averaged 31.9 points last season!

It’s safe to assume the Vikings’ defense will remain a top ten unit.  Given their performances with Shaun Hill in, it’s tempting to say that the Lions’ offense will remain a top ten unit as well.  Given the propensity for the Lions to outperform averages, especially on the ground, against Minnesota, I think we need to look at their current scoring average, 23.0 points, and make it the target.  Given an equal (or slightly lesser) level of talent and execution, and a mild systemic advantage, the Lions should roughly meet their season averages, scoring 20-24 points.  They should pass for 6.0-6.5 YpA, and rush for 3.5-3.75 YpC.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences

There are a slew of these.  The Vikings’ defensive averages, as well as the Lions’ offensive averages, are far from solid—they’re both based on just two games.  The Lions have played against two (presumably) stout defenses in the Bears and Eagles; yet their average is certainly inflated by the two TDs scored against the Eagles’ prevent defense.  Then again, they had a TD on the Bears erroneously taken off the board, so that may be a wash.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have held the vaunted Saints offense to just 14 points, and the much-less-vaunted-but-nothing-to-sneeze-at Dolphins offense to only 7.  Even with a systemic advantage tilting the field towards the Lions, this is an extremely stout defense.  It makes me very, very nervous.

Conclusion

All the stars are aligning for the Lions: the Vikings offense is in disarray, the numbers seem to point their way, and they've played well enough to win (without winning) for two games.  It seems like the dam has to burst, like the time has finally come.  Paula Pasche of the Oakland Press has already gone out on a limb and predicted victory; the numbers compel me to do the same.  The Brett Favre loss streak, the road loss streak, the axemen ready to chop that limb to the ground?  Well, I’ll just have to brave them with her.  The most likely outcome of the game is a close Lions win, with above-average rushing performances from both sides, and a 21-17 final score.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,minnesota vikings,brett favre,adrian peterson,jahvid best

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“Touch Down”: Lions Should Be 1-0

Chris Spielman once scored a touchdown for the Lions.  When he got into the end zone, he got both knees on the ground, and touched the ball to the turf—just as, many years ago, was required for a “touch down” to be scored.  He did it to pay his respects to the men who played the game sixty, seventy, eighty years ago—before multiple referees and a panoply of high-speed HD digital cameras continuously observed every square inch of the field.  Apparently, this is the standard we need to return to.

It's been beat to death by now.  The fires of my rage—not easily stoked—have cooled down.  Injustice has been done; the Lions had their game-winning touchdown against the Bears wiped off the books by a bad call.  As infuriating as it is, it is—and we either have to deal with it, process it, and move on, or seriously question our faith in the entity that rules the sport, and team, we love.

As The Big Lead and Pro Football Talk both explained very well, NFL officials incorrectly—or at best, zealously—applied one clause in the rule book, while steadfastly ignoring another.  The result is that the Lions lost what would have been a tremendous season-opening road win, and started back down the path to an 0-and-who-knows-how-many losing streak.

First, let's talk about what a catch is.  Per the NFL rule book:

Article 3. Completed or Intercepted Pass. A player who makes a catch may advance the ball. A forward pass is complete (by the offense) or intercepted (by the defense) if a player, who is inbounds:

(a) secures control of the ball in his hands or arms prior to the ball touching the ground; and (b) touches the ground inbounds with both feet or with any part of his body other than his hands.

If the player loses the ball while simultaneously touching both feet or any part of his body other than his hands to the ground, or if there is any doubt that the acts were simultaneous, it is not a catch.

The clause that was applied was the “going to the ground” clause:

Item 1: Player Going to the Ground.  If a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass (with or without contact by an opponent), he must maintain control of the ball after he touches the ground, whether in the field of play or the end zone. If he loses control of the ball, and the ball touches the ground before he regains control, the pass is incomplete. If he regains control prior to the ball touching the ground, the pass is complete.

It’s long been the rule that if a player catches the ball in midair, and lands on the ground, and the ball popped out, then it’s not a catch.  Picture a receiver with the ball cradled loosely in his arms, and then it popping out when he hits the turf—clearly, he never had possession.  If he didn’t have it secured enough to withstand hitting the ground, then he didn’t really have it at all.

But Calvin Johnson DID “maintain control of the ball after he touche[d] the ground.”  He caught the ball with his hands, landed with two feet, his knee hit, his butt hit, his other hand hit (possibly out of bounds, ending the play there if it already wasn’t over), and then Johnson touched the ball to the ground, and it popped out.  If that play occurs outside the endzone, he’s down by contact before the ball pops out.  But it wasn’t outside the end zone, he was in it.  That rule goes like this:

Item 3: End Zone Catches. If a player catches the ball while in the end zone, both feet must be completely on the ground before losing possession, or the pass is incomplete.

So we have several competing, conflicting standards in the rule book.  What we don’t have is any of the nonsense being spouted by Mike Pereira, former NFL Director of Officiating, and VP  of Officiating, and current FOX Sports analyst.  All the stuff we heard during the game, about “completing the process” isn’t in the rule rook.  Here’s his article on it for Fox:

Here's why: Rule 8, Section 1, Article 4.

A play from start to finish is a process. When you go to the ground, even after you've caught the ball, you have to maintain possession.

The rule states: If a player goes to the ground . . .

See what he did there?  He cited Rule 8, Section 1, Article 4, and then slipped in his own analysis.  The standards of a “complete process,” or of needing to complete a “second football act,” are not in the rule book, and should not be applied.  Calvin Johnson needed to maintain possession after he touched the ground, and he did that.  By rule, the play was a touchdown—and it was correctly signalled so by the side judge.

Mike Florio conducted a thought experiment that’s sure to illuminate (and infuriate):

Let's look at it this way. If Johnson's catch had occurred at the one, and if while swinging his arm to the ground he would have broken the plane of the goal line, the proper call under the "second act" exception would have been touchdown. And that's the heart of the problem. In an effort to take some of the perceived and/or actual unfairness out of a rule that takes away a catch that viscerally looks like a catch, the league has crafted an exception that isn't in the rule book, and that therefore doesn't -- and can't -- be applied with any consistency.

Tom Kowalski brought this up on 1130 AM this morning.  If everything happens the exact same way on the one-yard line, it would have been ruled a touchdown when he swung his arm down and broke the plane—OR, he would have been ruled down by contact at the one.  Yet, it occurred inside the end zone, where all he has to do is establish possession in bounds, and it ruled incomplete.

Of course, the fact that the Lions really needed this win can’t enter into the discussion.  That Matthew Stafford, and—how is no one talking about this?—Cliff Avril were lost in the effort doesn’t matter. That Shaun Hill’s outstanding job of leading the Lions down the field in the closing minute, and perfect rainbow thrown while being hit, were the kind of last-minute game-winning heroics we’re always the victims, and never beneficiaries of . . . none of it matters.  The refs couldn’t give the Lions the win because they wanted it, because they fought so hard for it, because they desperately needed it, or because they deserved it.

But they should have given the Lions the win, because the Lions won.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,chicago bears,calvin johnson,referees,mike pereira,matthew stafford,cliff avril

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Tinderbox: Nate Burleson, and the MLS In Detroit

When Kyle Vanden Bosch was signed, we heard a lot about how his nonstop motor, both on- and off-field, would set the tempo for the Lions’ young defensive linemen.  We heard a lot about how his intense play, intense practice tempo, and intense personality would teach the youngsters how to do it the right way—and, almost regardless of Vanden  Bosch’s own production, would make the defensive line better.

When Nate Burleson signed, most of the talk centered around his production and his compensation—we heard almost nothing about his intangibles.  Well, if you’ve read Tom Kowalski’s latest piece on Mlive.com, then you know  that Burleson’s arrival has catalyzed the transformation of the wide receiver corps.  What was once a frustrated Calvin Johnson surrounded by underperforming castoffs has become a lively, competitive group that sees themselves among the best units in the league.

One of the fun things about Twitter is following athletes, and seeing what they say to each other—and by following @Nate13Burleson, @bigplaycj, @1BryantJohnson, and @DWheelz12, I’ve seen the off-field esprit de wide receiver corps building all offseason long.  It doesn’t surprise me in the least that the wideouts are taking that same camaraderie between the sidelines, as well.  Handshakes, TD celebrations, friendly competitions, are all a part of building confidence, building unity, building excitement, and fostering a winning attitude—finally, changing the “losing culture” we’ve heard so much about over the past decade(s).

There were whispers last year that Megatron was becoming “Lionized” last year, losing motivation and focus because of the crushing futility of trying to win in Detroit.  Well, maybe being Lionized can have a different meaning now: attitude, confidence, fun, swagger.  Yeah, I said swagger.

Tonight, on ESPN2 (and Univision), the US Men’s National Team (USMNT) will be taking on Brazil.  This’ll be the first time we get to see our national team in action since the World Cup, and I’m interested to see what the national excitement level for this match is.  Of course, the old home of the Lions, the Silverdome, recently hosted a match between two elite international pro teams, AC Milan and Panathinaikos FC, billed the “Match of the Titans.”  Announced attendance was over 30,000, proving that there’s a significant fan base in Michigan.  The Silverdome ownership group is hoping to lure the MLS to Detroit with a radical makeover of the building, and I, for one, hope they pull it off.

I’m sitting here holding a registration form for Parks & Rec soccer for my eldest, & I’m about to go turn it in.  I never played soccer myself, and know very little about the game—but something about the international flavor of the sport has lured me and my kids in.  With the Tigers an annual exercise in hope and heartbreak, it’d be awesome to have another Detroit team to cheer on during the interminable wait for the NFL.  So, watch the USMNT tonight at 8:00 on ESPN2.  Go check out MotorCitySupporters.com.  Add @MCSDetroit to your Twitter feed, and join the grassroots effort to bring MLS to Detroit.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,mls detroit,soccer,nate burleson,calvin johnson

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Ndamukong Suh Unsigned? A Plate of Perspective

“You know what I'm craving? A little perspective. That's it. I'd like some fresh, clear, well seasoned perspective. Can you suggest a good wine to go with that?”

Though players are supposed to report this evening, it's still about 24 hours before the 2010 Detroit Lions open training camp for real: on the field.  We should be buzzing about Matthew Stafford’s first camp as the established starter, positional battles on the offensive line, and the new.  Instead most talk is about whether or not the Lions’ two first-round draft picks, Jahvid Best and Ndamkong Suh, will sign their contracts in time.

Let’s take a step back for a second.  We’ve been discussing Ndamukong Suh, what an unstoppable he-beast he is, and how Suh’d be a plug-in dominator since December.  After the Big XII championship game, many people on this site and elsewhere began expressing their undying love for him, crafting treatises on Ndamukong’s glory, and expounding upon how Suh’d immediately make the Lions’ defensive line both powerful and flexible.

There’s a lot of fear, uncertainty, and doubt that comes with a late camp entry.  “He’s way behind,” “We’ve already installed 90% of the system,” and “If he can’t get the starting job in camp, he’ll be a backup all year,” are all phrases you hear at this time of year.  But, I’m going to remind you folks of something: Calvin Johnson missed the first eight days of training camp!

Oh, there was woe.  Oh, there were lamentations.  Oh, there was gnashing of teeth.  Calvin wouldn’t learn the offense in time.  He needed to contribute in 2007, and he couldn’t if he didn’t know the offense.  There wouldn’t be time to build a rapport with Jon Kitna.  If he couldn’t be an effective starter in camp, he wouldn’t get enough reps to play well in the preseason.  If he didn’t play well in the preseason, he wouldn’t have the confidence to excel right away in the regular season.  If he didn’t excel in his rookie season, he’d be a year behind!  Oh no oh no oh no his entire career hangs in the balance!

Believe me, people, I was right there with you all!  But then . . . well, Calvin Johnson signed.  He showed up for work.  And what do you know?  He turned out to be 6’-5”, with 4.35 combine-40-yard-dash speed.  He also turned out to be just as humble, hardworking, and serious about his craft as advertised—and now, you’d never know he missed a few days of practice as July turned in to August.

I wanted the Lions to draft Suh because his body is put together in an extraordinarily rare combination of size, strength, speed and explosion—and inside that body, he’s a humble, generous, intelligent young man who understands his place in the world.  None of that is going to change between now and Saturday or Sunday or Monday.  Ndamukong wanted to get signed and get into camp—and, give or take a few days, he’ll be signed, and he’ll get into camp.  I can’t recommend a good wine for that—but I do suggest you pick up a bottle of Lion Stout, and put a hearty mug in the freezer.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,ndamukong suh,jahvid best,training camp

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Guest Article: Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview at Razzball.com

Anyone who’s a fantasy sports enthusiast, as I am, has spent some time over at Razzball.com.  They blend great fantasy info and advice with snappy writing and actual humor.  I was psyched when Chet from Razzball reached out to me, and asked if  I’d be willing to answer some questions about the Lions’ fantasy outlook for 2010.

Even if I weren’t flattered to be asked—I was—I was thrilled at the notion that someone thought the Lions might be relevant to fantasy football in 2010!  So, I gladly answered Chet’s very-well-informed questions.  Please, check it out here:

Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview at Razzball.com

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,nfl,fantasy football,razzball.com,matthew stafford,calvin johnson,brandon pettigrew,tony scheffler,nate burleson,jahvid best,kevin smith

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Of Potholes and Veterans: 2010 NFL Free Agency

Yesterday, my wife and elder daughter were at the Breslin, watching the MSU women’s hoops team take out Northwestern.  There were only two tickets available, so my son ended up being an unwilling non-participant.  Given his love of all things motorsport, I figured a quick jaunt out to a sports bar for a big-screen viewing of the Daytona 500 would lift his spirits.

Along with my way-too-close-to-two-years-old-for-my-comfort younger daughter, we got a table right next to a big projection screen—with the 500, in all its red-flagged-glory, on glorious display.  That’s right; I took my kids out to watch the Daytona 500 on the biggest possible screen, and we didn’t see a lap of actual racing.

The good folks at Daytona ended up just pouring a bunch of Bondo in the hole and runnin’ ‘em anyway; any car guy will call that poetic justice.  However, their old-school solution produced some serious problems: the finish was marred by wreck after wreck. Four-time champ Jimmie Johnson at least superficially blamed his late-race DNF on the gerry-rigged surface.

Upon closer inspection, it turns out the Daytona Beach superspeedway hadn’t been resurfaced since 1978; three years before this blogger was born.  It seems preposterous that I have conscious memories of Interstate freeways being built with public funds, while the crown jewel of American motorsport rolls on dated pavement—but there it is.

It’s hard not to draw parallels to the state of the Lions’ roster; the “345” pounds of Bondo filling the middle of the defensive line comes readily to mind.  It became obvious during the season that the aging veterans the Lions were relying upon to patch the roster weren’t doing the trick; the core of the roster has to be rebuilt.

The core of a successful NFL team is its young veterans: the 25-to-30-year-olds who have honed their craft through experience, but haven’t yet lost their youthful athleticism.  I present to you all the core of the Lions’ roster, in ascending age order:

• WR Calvin Johnson
• DL Turk McBride
• OT Corey Hilliard
• LB Ernie Sims
• QB Drew Stanton
• SS Marvin White
• SS Ko Simpson
• TE Matthew Michaels
• DE Jason Hunter
• DB Kevin Hobbs
• SS Daniel Bullocks
• OG Manny Ramirez
• CB Eric King
• OG Dylan Gandy
• OG Daniel Loper
• OG Stephen Peterman
• LS Don Muhlbach
• MLB Cody Spencer
• WR Bryant Johnson
• TE Casey Fitzsimmons
• OLB Vinny Circiu

Wow.  I knew this would be brutal, but it surpasses even my worst fears.  Of the 21 players that met my criteria, you could release all but four of them without any impact on the Lions’ 2009 performance*, or 2010 team potential: Megatron, Sims, Peterman, and Muhlbach.

The criteria were tough to define.  Brandon Pettigrew is 25, but just finished his rookie year—and Ernie Sims is only two months older, but has already played four seasons.  I set the lower bound at “at least 24 years old, with three or more completed seasons”, and the upper bound at “no more than 30 years old, or 7 completed seasons”.

If that seems like a narrow window, it is; time is short in the NFL.  We already speak of the “aging” Larry Foote and his “diminished skills”—yet, he’s only 29.  His eight years of service just barely disqualified him from this list.

Further, the 2009 draft class has been pushed into starting roles far more quickly than they would have on any other team.  It’s undeniable that Stafford, Pettigrew, Delmas, Levy, and Hill are starting-caliber talents, but to varying degrees they all could have benefitted from the time and space to develop before getting thrust out into the fray.  They’re the “core” of the team, but only because the actual core of the team lays in ruins.

What can be done?  Not much.  The answer should be to pursue these types of players in free agency, but this is an especially bad year to do so.  The vagaries of the CBA and the 2010 uncapped year mean that the four- and five-year veterans who’d be coming into the open market are now restricted free agents; if tendered at a decent level they’re nearly unsignable.

Here’s a reasonably complete list of six- and seven-year starter-caliber veterans who’ll be unrestricted free agents come March:

• OLB Karlos Dansby
• DT Vince Wilfork
• MLB Gary Brackett
• CB Dunta Robinson
• WR Nate Burleson
• DT Aubrayo Franklin
• OLB Pisa Tinoisamoa
• WR Antonio Bryant
• WR Kevin Walter
• FS Will Allen

Wilfork and Franklin will be slapped with the franchise tag, taking them off the market.  Robinson will almost certainly be either tagged or re-signed to a monster deal, as the Texans have almost no one behind him at cornerback.  The 5’-11”, 235-pound Brackett doesn’t fit the Lions’ system at all, and the same goes for Tinoisamoa.

Burleson, Bryant, and Walter are legitimate options as #2 WRs, but it’s questionable whether Bryant or Walter represent a head-and-shoulders upgrade over Bryant Johnson.  Besides Burleson, Will Allen is another strong possibility.  A special-teams standout with experience at both free and strong safety, Allen missed most of last year with a broken thumb, and could be a nice complement to Louis Delmas.

Unfortunately, that’s about the extent of it: a handful of wideouts and a safety.  Any further attempts at rebuilding the young-veteran talent foundation of the Lions would involve either signing a restricted free agent, or making a trade—both which would almost certainly involve surrendering draft picks, with I don’t see Mayhew doing under almost any circumstance.

The more I look at the free agent market, the more I realize that, like Sunday’s Daytona 500, we’ll waiting a long time before the Lions’ roster is competitive again.  All we can hope for is that, like the 500, when they finally get there, it’s worth it.

* obviously, if they released Loper, Ramirez, and Gandy the Lions would have nobody to play left guard.  The idea here is that all of these guys are fungible; you can exchange a Dylan Gandy for a Rex Hadnot whenever you want, but a Jahri Evans is much tougher to come by.

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