Meet the Cubs: Titus Young

 

2.12 (44): Titus Young
          Wide Receiver, Boise State

With all of the armchair scouting, mock drafts, media hyperventilation, and everything else that surrounds the NFL draft, there are very few surprises left. This is especially true for hardcore fans: just look through the Mlive.com article comments and forums in March; most of the Lion regulars have their preferred targets picked out through all seven rounds.

Very few, if any, had Titus Young on their list—most hadn’t heard of him! Yet another difference between armchair GMs and the pros: Jim Schwartz immediately Tweeted that the Lions had had their eye on Titus Young for a long time . . .

Tom Kowalski immediately told Lions fans not to worry, Titus Young would become a fan favorite. Young plays, talks, and Tweets with irrepressible emotion—from crying when the Lions drafted him, to exulting on the phone with Lions fans at the Hard Rock Café, to throwing himself headlong into becoming a Lion and a Detroiter:

. . . Young doesn't do anything halfway.

“Man Im Bout To Get #313 Tatted on My Chest, and #BringinBackTheBadboys on my Back! Would yall Love me then????????”

It’s amazing, then, that in spotlight of Los Angeles, Young blended into the shadows. At University High School, Young’s rail-thin frame and talented teammates kept him from drawing much attention from big schools, despite being named All-League his sophomore and junior years. But then he attended the USC Nike Camp, and his performance put him on major-school radar—and his unbelievable senior season was too huge for anyone to ignore. As a receiver, Young caught 66 passes for 1,359 and 10 TDs, plus 49 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. As a defensive back, Young had 97 tackles, 11 INTs, 8 PDs and a sack. For good measure, he returned 18 punts for 392 yards and 3 TDs, and 11 kickoffs for 363 and 1 score.

The Pac-10 offers came rolling in: Oregon, Washington, Washington State, Arizona State . . . he was thrilled to see his stock rising, and started lining up officials. Scout.com ranked him a three-star recruit, and so did Rivals.com. On December 11th, 2006, Young told Rivals:

I'm still sending film out right now and I think that could result in even more offers for me. I had a great season and honestly feel I'm one of the top athletes in the country. Schools are just now finding out about me, that's why I'm keeping that last visit open. I want to take all all my trips and then I'll make my decision close to Signing Day."

A few days later, Boise State made an in-home visit. After that visit, Young immediately visited Boise's campus. After that visit, Young immediately committed to Boise State—just six days after telling Rivals he wanted to play it all the way out to the end! It must have seemed like a perfect fit . . . so what happened?

“I was thinking it would be best for him to go someplace else,” [BSU Head Coach Chris] Petersen said.

According to Chadd Cripe at the Idaho Statesman, Young’s impact on the Broncos was immediate. The 2006 team that beat Oklahoma featured three senior wideouts, and Young’s talent and personality turned heads—those of his teammates’, and the media. The spotlight loved Titus, and he loved it right back. The 17-year-old caught a pass in every one of the Broncos’ games that year, and finished third on the team in receptions (44), second in yards (639), and third in TDs (5).  Still, he struggled to hold onto the ball, and struggled to maintain perspective. 

Young was suspended for the first quarter of the 2007 Hawaii Bowl, yet still fumbled twice in the remainder of the game. Still, that humbling experience wasn’t quite humbling enough. Young tuned out his coaches, put himself first, broke some team rules, and was ultimately suspended for all but three games in 2008. It reached the point where both parties were ready to move on.

Still, Young persevered in class, even while barred from team activites:

“I really just wanted to go home for a while, sit on my couch, lock myself in a cage,” he said. “That’s how I really felt at the time. If I would have ran, I would have been running from my problems. I’ve never been a type to run from a problem. You’ve always got to hit it in the mouth and stay strong and endure and have faith.”

Petersen offered him “one more shot" during the practice sessions for the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, and Titus took it seriously. He remained on the team for the 2009 season, and in spectacular fashion—he finished with 79 catches, 1041 yards, and 1o TDs through the air, plus 15 carries for 138 and 2 on the ground. He was named first-team All-WAC as both a receiver and returner, but that was just the warmup act.

His senior season, Young hauled in 71 balls for a BSU single-season 1,215 yards (that 17.1 YpC!) and 9 TDs. He added 14 carries for 91 yards and a score. He again was named first-team All-WAC, and third team AP All-America. His truncated career at Boise State was still enough to place him #1 all-time in both single-season and career receiving yards.

Young wasn’t done proving himself at Boise State, though. After a disappointing Combine where he cut an official 4.53, Young really needed a great Pro Day performance to assure teams his on-film game speed wasn’t just an illusion generated by WAC competition. Depending on who you ask, Young’s two Pro Day runs averaged somewhere between 4.39 and 4.43, easing the concerns about his timed speed. He dropped no passes, and the National Football Post reported Young successfully boosted his draft stock back into the high second-round/late first-round territory (which, obviously yes). But hey, let's hear it from the scouts themselves:

• Sideline Scouting:

  Positives: Has good but not great speed... Smart player, knows where he is on the field at all times, plays the sidelines well... Runs nice crisp routes, slips well into zone coverage... Quick off the line of scrimmage... has good change of direction ability and cuts well in the open field... Explosive deep threat, gets behind coverage with ease... Dynamic return man, can return both punts and kickoffs in the NFL... Tough to bring down when the ball is in his hands, keeps a low center of gravity and slips through tackles... Elite short area burst, is an absolute terror with the football in his hands... Terrific body control, adjusts well to balls in the air and plays the sidelines well.

  Negatives: Very small, would like to see him add some weight to his frame... Ran slower at the combine than most expected... Questionable hands, drops some catchable balls... Looks up field before securing the football... Average run blocker, size limits his ability to be much of a factor in this area... Stats may be inflated due to playing in Boise State's high powered offense against WAC competition... Comes with character concerns, missed most of 2008 due to suspension.

• CBSSports.com:

  Strengths: Very quick receiver who eats up the cushion out of his breaks and gets on top of the corner in a hurry. Has a solid second gear to get down the field after initial moves and can run away from defenders. Explodes out of his stance with no wasted steps and does a nice job of stemming his routes. Is a sudden athlete who moves seamlessly in and out of his breaks without sacrificing acceleration. Maintains his balance when cutting and keeps his feet under him in his routes. Runs crisp routes to earn consistent separation from defenders and is shifty enough out of his stance to slip press coverage. Has great lateral quickness in the open field and can create on his own after the reception. Sells out to make tough catches and fully extends his body and arms when going over the middle. Possesses strong wrists to snag the ball and hold onto it in traffic. Tracks passes over either shoulder. Understands spacing and will not drift back into coverage. Versatile player who brings added value as both a kick and punt returner due to this combination of straight-line running, toughness and elusiveness.

  Weaknesses: Slight, thin frame that may not hold up in the NFL with his playing style. Loses focus and drops catchable passes. Concentration wavers all too often and will look to run upfield before securing the ball. Does not win jump balls often and struggles to out-leap defenders. Can be stymied at the line by physical corners and lacks the strength and drive to be an effective run blocker. Has nice timed speed, but lacks elite ability to burn by defensive backs on a consistent basis. Has a reputation as an egotistical player who can resist coaching.

• For the first Lion draftee this season, SI.com lists "Positives"! They graded Young a 2.80, practically equal to Mikel Leshoure:

  Positives: Productive college receiver with a consistent game. Fluid releasing off the line and runs sharp routes, quickly getting into breaks and immediately coming back to the ball on exit. Displays terrific focus and concentration and makes the reception away from his frame. Possesses strong hands, showing the ability to snatch passes from the air. Easily adjusts the errant throw, effortlessly makes the reception downfield, and elusive running after the catch. Reads the defense and settles into the open spot on the field. Sneaky fast and finds a way to get behind opponents. Gives effort blocking downfield and gets solid results.

  Negatives: More quick than fast. Erratic workout at the combine. Lacks top size and likely to struggle handling jams or battling at the next level.

  Analysis: Young was exceptionally productive the past two seasons and turned in a terrific performance at the Senior Bowl in January. He's a prospect who comes to play on game day and should be a productive third receiver while also being an asset on special teams.

• Pro Football Weekly:

  Positives: Exceptional burst, acceleration and deep speed to stretch the field vertically. Fluid strider with big-time turnover. Quick-footed to slip the jam. Is sudden in and out of breaks and makes speed cuts smoothly. Very good hands and concentration — tracks the ball well over his shoulder. Outruns angles and can take it the distance. Agile and elusive in the open field. Versatile and highly productive — consistent playmaker as a receiver and kickoff returner.

  Negatives:

  Has a slight build with short arms and lacks bulk — is not equipped to work inside, and durability could be a considerable issue. Can be outmuscled and does not always come down with the contested catch. Has limited run strength and exposes his frame to some shots. Occasional concentration drop. Soft blocker. Was immature early in his career. Production was slightly inflated by WAC defenses and was rarely challenged by comparably athletic cornerbacks. Did not run through the gauntlet drill at the Combine with any tempo.

  Summary: Thinly built, tight-skinned, confident, competitive, explosive deep threat whose loose hips and lateral agility set him apart from generic burners. Versatility increases his value —possesses the vertical speed to scalp a secondary as a vertical “X” receiver, the suddenness and run-after-catch ability to create mismatches from the slot and the burst to pose a threat as a primary kickoff returner. Multifaceted playmaking ability could even push him into the first round, though his slight frame could keep evaluators at bay and shorten the shelf life of his NFL career.

Of course, none of this is why you are here. You are here for the TRUTH. You want to KNOW if Titus Young is bound for the Hall of Fame or the Charles Rogers Failure Valhalla. Fortunately the One True Oracle of NFL Success, YouTube Highlight Reels, loves Titus Young more than any prospect I’ve ever had the pleasure of breaking down for Meet the Cubs. You know a kid is a player when he has HIGH SCHOOL YouTube Highlight Reels, especially one that's such a love letter to the art:

I’m . . . I’m not saying someone who is really into Titus Young is also into video editing, but there’s a treasure trove at YouTube just too big to embed. Here’s a nice collection of straight highlights, followed by a very interesting meta/narrative/trick catch/interview thing that you don’t see every day (which also includes straight highlights). When contrasted to the high school clip above, the difference between who Titus Young was a kid, and who Titus Young is as a man is dramatic, and unmistakable.

Here's a special treat. Aaron Aloysius of Draft Breakdown does some really, really nice videos that spotlight individual prospects throughout individual games, and this one of Young vs. Nevada is a gem:

First of all, the speed thing. Young definitely plays much faster than the WAC opponents, and I believe he’d still be electrifying against AQ conference competition. I got frustrated while watching through these, because it seemed that so much of the running time of each video was Young blowing by everyone to the house—over, and over, and over again . . .

There’s no doubt that Young is a long strider with good top speed, but even given how much of his body is legs, it’s astounding to see how quick his foot speed is, and how naturally he chops his stride short to change direction—and how quickly he digs back in and gets to that gliding, cruising speed. Normally, those types of runners struggle to get in and out of cuts quickly, but as you see above his footspeed and instincts neutralize that tendency.

In my mind, there’s no doubt that if Young applies himself as he did his senior year, he’ll be able to make an immediate impact here. My question is, how does Scott Linehan plan to use him, in combination with Nate Burleson? As the WR Old Mother Hubbard showed us, the Lions desperately need a field stretcher, a playmaker who can get open downfield and break medium routes to the house. He did that in college, over and over and over again—but can he do it in the NFL? Burleson is a hair taller and decidedly thicker; so is he really the natural choice to slide inside while Young plays #2?

From what the scouts above say, Young will actually be better suited for the outside than Burleson, because Burleson has the strength to handle hits and traffic, and mix it up with linebackers, while Young has the speed to get open deep. Young shouldn’t see much press coverage, given all the short- and medium-depth options the Lions have (Burleson, Pettigrew, Sheffler, Best); He’ll simply be asked to fly—and that, he can do. I see Young used right away as the #2 receiver in three-receiver sets . . . and after that, who knows? Maybe the spotlight loves Young even on the biggest stage of all.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,titus young,nfl draft,wide recievers,scouting reports

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Wide Receivers

Finishing up the Old Mother Hubbard series, post-draft, seems anti-climatic. However, there’s plenty of offseason left (maybe too much), and this cupboard isn’t done being restocked. To that end, we dig into the Pro Football Focus grades for wide receivers:

In this case, “Pass” refers to their grades in the passing game, i.e. their receiving performance. “Run” refers to their performance when running the football (on reverses, etc.). Unlike tight ends, run blocking and pass blocking are consolidated into “Blocking,” as receivers rarely pass block. The bright orange line represents Brandon Lloyd, the wideout who turned in the best overall grade. His +24 is predicated almost entirely on his +23.4 receiving grade (the other dimensions have little variation, and therefore little impact on the overall grade). Should we be surprised that Darrius Heyward-Bey is bringing up the rear? His –14 overall grade is the worst of any NFL wideout.

There’s a little thing in research called “confirmation bias,” where you seek out objective facts that confirm your preconceptions. That the Lions drafted a speedy receiver with their second pick suggests the Lions saw a need that had to be filled. I simply have to acknowledge this: I’m curious to see why the Lions thought they should pick a wideout so high, especially one whose game superficially matches Nate Burleson’s. I’m going to do this straight, but keep an eye out for signals that there’s a need to stretch the field.

The Lions’ WR corps is the most divergent unit on the team. Most of the other positions’ players are clustered around the thick black AVERAGE line, with only a few strong deviations in either direction. However, Calvin Johnson was PFF’s third-best graded receiver in 2010, with a very strong +14 overall grade. That was powered by a +14.5 receiving grade, and only having a single penalty called against him all year. He also had a (very) slightly above-average rushing grade.

Surprisingly, Megatron’s blocking grade was awful. He turned in a –3.1 blocking mark, well below the NFL average of –1.27, and ranked 94th out of 110 receivers. We don’t play Megatron to block, but you’d think a dude who has half a foot and sixty pounds on most corners could do better than that without breaking a sweat.

Statistically, Calvin caught 77 of 131 passes thrown at him; his percentage of passes caught is actually a little below-average at 58.8% (NFL average: 59.6%). Part of this is definitely due to system and quarterbacking. The top receiving percentage guys are typically slot receivers in pass-first, multi-WR offenses featuring quality quarterbacks; Megatron is a #1 wideout in a conventional offense driven by very inconsistent quarterback play last year. Still, I’d expected Calvin to be better than the mean at getting to, and hauling in, footballs.

Perhaps it's in the way they use him? Megatron was thrown at once every 7.8 snaps, exactly the NFL average. His yards per reception, 14.5, is definitely a notch above average, 13.2. But his touchdowns . . . well, his 13 12 vastly outstrip the league average of 4. It was my eyeball observation that the Lions tended to move between the 30s with passes to slot WRs, TEs, and RBs, then take shots at the endzone with Calvin once they got close. I divided receptions by touchdowns and . . . yup! Megatron was 10th in the NFL with 6.4 receptions per touchdown (4th with 5.9 if you count the Chicago Robbery). If the Lions were throwing to Calvin, they were often taking a shot at the end zone.

Bottom Line: Calvin Johnson was one of the NFL’s best receivers in 2010, despite being targeted the average number of times, primarily in the red zone, by a rotating cast of quarterbacks. If he and Matthew Stafford play all 16 games in 2011, expect Megatron to be #1 by a long shot.

The neon-green line a little ways inside of AVERAGE is Nate Burleson, the Lions’ second-splashiest free agent acquisition of 2010. Burleson turned in a –2.7 receiving grade, which couldn’t be offset by his run grade (+1.6, tied with Devin Hester for third-best in the NFL), or his relatively clean penalty grade. His very-slightly-below-average blocking performance (-1.4) didn’t help either.

Burleson’s negative grade didn’t come entirely from dropped passes, as Brandon Pettigrew’s clearly did. Burleson was ranked 56th in snaps-per-drop, with 17.0 (avg.: 17.6)—not great, but barely off the NFL median and mean. His YAC was excellent; 18th-best in the NFL with 5.6. He also made a defender miss on a post-catch tackle 8 times on just 55 receptions—the 21st-highest rate in the NFL (6.9 Rec./MT; NFL avg. 10.8).

That is the end of the good news for Burleson—who, outside of two great games against the Jets and Dolphins (+2.9, +3.4), turned in neutral or weakly negative grades the rest of the year (none worse than his –1.8 week one; most not nearly that low). He also, despite his well-above-average YAC rate, could only muster 11.4 yards per reception. Think about that: he ran for an average of 5.6 yards after every catch, but only gained 11.4 yards on an average catch. He caught the ball an average of 5.8 yards downfield! The picture this all paints is of a slightly-below-average receiver who struggles to get open deep—but becomes a genuine threat once the ball is in his hands.

Bottom Line: Nate Burleson proved to be a valuable asset, often getting open short and manufacturing yards in space when there were none to be had. However, he failed to provide a credible threat across from Calvin Johnson, instead carving out a niche in underneath the coverage. “Recepticon” has a future in this offense, but it will be much brighter if he can work in the space created by a legitimate deep threat.

Bryant Johnson is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Unfortunately, PFF’s grades are not kind to him. Johnson’s –13.1 overall grade is second-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Darrius Heyward-Bey. His –13.5 receiving grade is at the very bottom; it’s only his total lack of penalties called that pull him up above Heyward-Bey. His 37.5% of targets caught is also second-worst in the league; dropping 7 passes on just 48 targets didn’t help.

Here’s one positive tidbit for Johnson, though: his 4.2 catches per missed tackle means he was the third-hardest WR to bring down in the NFL. Should he happen to catch the ball, Bryant Johnson is tough to stop.

Bottom Line: Bryant Johnson struggled mightily to catch the ball in 2010, as he did in 2009. Though his body type and tool set would be the perfect complement to draw coverage away from Megatron and open up space for Burleson, his inability to catch the ball strips him of any credible threat—and of any real chance of returning for 2010.

Derrick Williams is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Williams's commitment to giving back to the Detroit community is as impressive as it is unheralded. Unfortunately, PFF’s graders took a dim view of his 2010 performance, as well. Williams, whose 154 snaps didn’t qualify him for the 25% cutoff, only saw time in weeks 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, and 13.

His –6 overall rating and –4.8 receiving rating didn’t come from doing a bad job catching the ball. The problem was, he was never open: in 154 snaps played, Lions quarterbacks only targeted him three times. Astonishingly, that’s the exact same number of penalty flags he drew (though one was called back).

Bottom Line: Despite being, by all appearances, a great guy and a good teammate, Williams’ single reception for 7 yards was probably the former #1 recruit in America’s last as a Lion.

SHOPPING LIST: Though no one identified WR as a need prior to the draft, had I managed to crank this one out I’d have been screaming from the mountaintops about this one, too. Calvin Johnson is a flat-out stud, Nate Burleson is a quality slot ninja, and after that the Lions have two guys who’ve proven they can’t help, and practice squadders like Brian Clark and Tim Toone. The need for a wideout with legitimate downfield speed and NFL hands to go with it was, in fact, desperate—and the Lions may have filled it with Titus Young.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,2011 nfl draft,calvin johnson,nate burleson,titus young,boise state,team needs

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Tinderbox: Nate Burleson, and the MLS In Detroit

When Kyle Vanden Bosch was signed, we heard a lot about how his nonstop motor, both on- and off-field, would set the tempo for the Lions’ young defensive linemen.  We heard a lot about how his intense play, intense practice tempo, and intense personality would teach the youngsters how to do it the right way—and, almost regardless of Vanden  Bosch’s own production, would make the defensive line better.

When Nate Burleson signed, most of the talk centered around his production and his compensation—we heard almost nothing about his intangibles.  Well, if you’ve read Tom Kowalski’s latest piece on Mlive.com, then you know  that Burleson’s arrival has catalyzed the transformation of the wide receiver corps.  What was once a frustrated Calvin Johnson surrounded by underperforming castoffs has become a lively, competitive group that sees themselves among the best units in the league.

One of the fun things about Twitter is following athletes, and seeing what they say to each other—and by following @Nate13Burleson, @bigplaycj, @1BryantJohnson, and @DWheelz12, I’ve seen the off-field esprit de wide receiver corps building all offseason long.  It doesn’t surprise me in the least that the wideouts are taking that same camaraderie between the sidelines, as well.  Handshakes, TD celebrations, friendly competitions, are all a part of building confidence, building unity, building excitement, and fostering a winning attitude—finally, changing the “losing culture” we’ve heard so much about over the past decade(s).

There were whispers last year that Megatron was becoming “Lionized” last year, losing motivation and focus because of the crushing futility of trying to win in Detroit.  Well, maybe being Lionized can have a different meaning now: attitude, confidence, fun, swagger.  Yeah, I said swagger.

Tonight, on ESPN2 (and Univision), the US Men’s National Team (USMNT) will be taking on Brazil.  This’ll be the first time we get to see our national team in action since the World Cup, and I’m interested to see what the national excitement level for this match is.  Of course, the old home of the Lions, the Silverdome, recently hosted a match between two elite international pro teams, AC Milan and Panathinaikos FC, billed the “Match of the Titans.”  Announced attendance was over 30,000, proving that there’s a significant fan base in Michigan.  The Silverdome ownership group is hoping to lure the MLS to Detroit with a radical makeover of the building, and I, for one, hope they pull it off.

I’m sitting here holding a registration form for Parks & Rec soccer for my eldest, & I’m about to go turn it in.  I never played soccer myself, and know very little about the game—but something about the international flavor of the sport has lured me and my kids in.  With the Tigers an annual exercise in hope and heartbreak, it’d be awesome to have another Detroit team to cheer on during the interminable wait for the NFL.  So, watch the USMNT tonight at 8:00 on ESPN2.  Go check out MotorCitySupporters.com.  Add @MCSDetroit to your Twitter feed, and join the grassroots effort to bring MLS to Detroit.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,mls detroit,soccer,nate burleson,calvin johnson

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Guest Article: Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview at Razzball.com

Anyone who’s a fantasy sports enthusiast, as I am, has spent some time over at Razzball.com.  They blend great fantasy info and advice with snappy writing and actual humor.  I was psyched when Chet from Razzball reached out to me, and asked if  I’d be willing to answer some questions about the Lions’ fantasy outlook for 2010.

Even if I weren’t flattered to be asked—I was—I was thrilled at the notion that someone thought the Lions might be relevant to fantasy football in 2010!  So, I gladly answered Chet’s very-well-informed questions.  Please, check it out here:

Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview at Razzball.com

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,nfl,fantasy football,razzball.com,matthew stafford,calvin johnson,brandon pettigrew,tony scheffler,nate burleson,jahvid best,kevin smith

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Seeing Is Believing

On Friday morning, I awoke to an unpleasant surprise: my glasses were missing a lens. After twenty-odd minutes of tearing their perch on my bookshelf apart, I concluded that the Lens Gnomes had simply made off with it. Acute myopia, with a twist of astigmatism, renders me worthless without corrective lenses--but the rat race must be run. So, into work I drove, one eye closed.

Shopping from a list of nearby insurance participants, I called SEE Eyewear and got their earliest available appointment: 3:00 p.m. After a long hard day of squinting at computer code, I drove over there pirate-style. That's when they broke the bad news: they had no on-site lab, so the very earliest they could get me new glasses was Wednesday--maybe Tuesday, if God and UPS made a tiny miracle together. I had a Big Problem.

Fortunately, the good folks at S.E.E. (it's an acronym!) had a solution: they could sit me for a quick contact fitting, and I could wear trial lenses until the day my specs arrived. Easy-peasy, yes? No.

You see, I've had glasses since the first grade. I've never 'made do', never worn contacts, and never considered RK or LASIK. Going without my glasses would be like going without my nose; for the past twenty-three years I've never looked in the mirror and clearly seen one without the other. That nose has pad-shaped divots at the bridge, and my temples sport thin horizontal grooves. My glasses are a literally a part of me.

However, I had to face my face without them. A brief fitting session, and slightly-less-brief crash course on contact lens insertion, and the contacts were in.

My eyes felt more opened than they ever had before. My entire field of vision was clear. I could see all around me, wind wafting past my eyes, my face relieved of a polycarbonate burden it had borne for decades. Everything was new again! You couldn't wipe the smile off my face as I walked around looking at things. Mrs. Inwinter exclaimed that in our twelve years together, she'd never looked into my eyes knowing I was looking back--until now. It seemed like a wondrous new world had opened up for me . . . then I realized: this is what it's always like for everybody else.

The Detroit Lions are facing a similar crossroads. After the incredible burden of 0-16, the glorious celebration when that burden was cast off, and two straight offseasons of talent addition, the Lions cannot go into this season hoping to win a single game, or even win a game or two more than last. No, the Lions have assembled a talented roster, with legitimate talent on both sides of the ball. The veterans will be expected to play as they have, and the youngsters will be expected to produce up to their potential. A 3-13 season will be a disappointment, not a thrilling sign of what's to come.

You can see it best, perhaps, in the defensive line: Jason Hunter. Jared DeVries. Landon Cohen. Turk McBride. Andre Fluellen. These guys are good players; they certainly belong on an NFL roster. But Sammie Hill, Corey Williams, Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Cliff Avril take up five spots, and seventh-rounder Willie Young should catch on. That leaves three, maybe four, more spots for five players. A player who is good enough to play in the NFL will be released, because they aren't good enough to play for the Lions.

As Uncle Ben told us, with great power, comes great responsibility--and with great potential, comes great expectations. It's assumed that second-year quarterback Matthew Stafford will take a big step forward. It's assumed that Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson will step in and produce. It's assumed that both Lions first-rounders, Suh and Jahvid Best, will step in and be the impact players they were in college. If these players don't step up, there are going to be some serious grumblings from the fans--and presumably, the owner, since he's on the hook for these players' staggering contracts.

If they do, the Lions will have, at minimum, a legitimate NFL offense: everyone running with the ones is either an established NFL starter, or a first-round pick of the last three years. It's tempting to start pencilling in pinball numbers for this newly-legitimate Lions offense, but then it hits you: this is what it's always like for everybody else.

The Lions, like Pinocchio, have cast off their strings and become Real Boys, but now they face real dangers, difficulties, and pitfalls. Yes, it's terrible coming off of an 0-16 season. Yes, it's terrible being the butt of every joke. But, there's also something easy about that, something safe: a real team, with real expectations of competitiveness, doesn't come back out of the locker room for an extended curtain call because they won a game. Those days are over, thank God, but it's a mixed blessing: there's no longer nowhere to go but up.

We no longer view this team through the glasses of perennial loserdom. We no longer see them as a ragtag bunch of misfits for whom victory is a rare and treasured accident, we see them as they are: a very young, talented team with a lot of potential--and a whole lot to prove. It's been a long time since we've been able to take the Lions at face value, but now, as full-roster OTAs begin, it's time. Let's take the blue-colored glasses off, step into the warm spring sun, and see the Lions as they truly are.

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Old Mother Hubbard: the Detroit Lions’ 2010 NFL Draft Shopping List

But, with the draft upon us, I have to sum up the Lions’ needs.  It only makes sense: if the Lions are restocking the cupboard, they need a shopping list, right?

Josh over at Roar of the Lions came up with the perfect description of how the Lions' front office drafts: "BATFAN," or Best Available That Fits A Need. The idea is that you're taking the best available player, but only if that player fits a perceived need. This doesn't involve RANKING said needs. If there are four available players that all fit a roster niche, the one getting drafted will be the best player, not the one fans might think is most needed.

This is why Brandon Pettigrew got taken over a middle linebacker at 1.20 last year: TE, though not a position most fans cared about, was manned solely by Casey FitzSimmons and Will Heller. A two-way TE, a sweet blocker with soft hands, was a definite need, and Brandon Pettigrew was graded by the Lions to be a better player than any MLB on the board.

Of course, nobody outside of Allen Park's innermost sanctum knows what the Lions' true draft grades are. With what we know of the schemes the coaches run, and the qualities they look for, and the performance of the players still on the roster from 2009, we can at least take a stab at what the Lions consider to be their needs.

When it comes to Quarterback, Matthew Stafford is the franchise quarterback, the alpha and the omega, the present and future king. The Lions brought in veteran Shaun Hill to serve as the primary backup, and he's a good fit. With Scott Linehan having coached the eight-season veteran during his formative years in Minnesota, Hill and his lifetime 23/11 TD/INT ratio should walk in the door a trustworthy backup. At 30 years of age, with only 16 career starts, Hill also has a lot of tread on the tires; if he does indeed work out, the Lions will be set at quarterback for years.

I don't know if this is good news or bad news for perennial underdog Drew Stanton. One one hand, Drew is a second-round pick entering his fourth year, and most would be very surprised if he's any higher than third on the depth chart come Week 1. On the other, he has shown a few flashes here and there, and this will be his first time playing for the same OC two seasons in a row. The bottom line is that the Lions could use a developmental quarterback to push Stanton in camp.

At Runningback, the Lions have made it absolutely clear that they plan to upgrade over incumbent (but injured) starter Kevin Smith.  They desire a back that has the explosion, deep speed, and big-play ability that Smith lacks.  From my position on the couch, there'd be a natural fit: draft an explosive scatback with questions about his ability to run between the tackles, let him show what he can do all summer, and then when Smith comes back you have an effective tandem.

I don't think the Lions agree with me.

It's been said that the Lions were strongly considering drafting Beanie Wells if he'd fallen to them at the top of the second round.  Given what we know of the Lions' approach; that they want to build a power-running team, it becomes clear: they’re not looking for a "lighting" to Kevin Smith's "thunder".  They won’t be drafting a Reggie Bush-type jitterbug.  No, they want Fast Kevin Smith: a power back with speed, not a speed back.

For what it's worth, I thought Maurice Morris ran very, very well last season--in fact, he was much more effective than Smith.  If the Lions chose to roll with him, 2nd-year scatback Aaron Brown, and signee DeDe Dorsey, I think they’d get by fine until Smith returned—and the Lions would probably agree.  The Lions’ intent with drafting a runningback isn’t to upgrade their backups—it’s to upgrade their starter.  The Lions want to draft a starting power back with speed.

Wide Receiver, the bane of the Lions' drafts, may finally be set.  Calvin Johnson is the most physically wideout in football.  Free agent signee Nate Burleson is a favorite of OC Scott Linehan’s—and is extremely dangerous when working in the space created by a complementary deep threat.  Last year’s #2, Bryant Johnson, #3, Dennis Northcutt, and 2009 third-round draftee Derrick Williams round out a very nice five-deep set.  I don’t believe they’re thrilled with Johnson, Northcutt, or Williams as long-term solutions, so perhaps they draft a developmental player—but with the lack of 4- and 5-WR sets in Linehan’s offense, they won’t carry six receivers on the roster.  The Lions may or may not be looking for a developmental wide receiver.

With 2009 first-round pick Brandon Pettigrew coming back, the Lions know who their #1 Tight End is.  He’s a strong blocker, who was developing into one of Stafford’s favorite targets before he got hurt.  After him, there’s Will Heller, who was brought in to be a pure blocker—but surprised with his soft, clutch hands.  Dan Gronkowski and Jake Nordin are both young, strong, developmental blocking tight ends.

With the retirement of Casey FitzSimmons, the Lions no longer have a receiving tight end with speed.  Given the way Linehan likes to use two-TE sets, the Lions could use a developmental athletic, pass-catching tight end.

At Offensive Tackle, the Lions have stalwart LT Jeff Backus, and 2008 first-round RT Gosder Cherilus.  Backus, of course, has been a lightning rod for fan ire, with his outlandish contracts and inconsistent level of play.  However, his durability, toughness, and intelligence have kept him in the starting lineup for 144 straight games—through four head coaches, a mess of offensive coordinators, and 111 losses.  Coming off of his best season yet, with HC Jim Schwartz saying he was worthy of a Pro Bowl nomination, it’s clear that the Lions don’t see LT as a need—for 2010.

Cherilus has been even more inconsistent in his tumultuous two-year career.  He’s been “starting” and “benched” and back again more times than I can count, and every time I’ve thought he looks like a star in the making, he’s immediately committed an idiotic mistake that kills the team.  I have no idea whether the Lions see Cherilus as a long-term solution at RT, and neither do you (unless you are Martin Mayhew or Jim Schwartz in which case thanks for reading, and what are you doing reading blogs get back to work). 

With the release of swing G/T Daniel Loper, the Lions are relying on veteran Jon Jansen to back up both LT and RT . . . and Jansen wasn’t considered to be athletic enough to pass protect on the left, even in his prime.  The Lions need a left tackle, who could be groomed to replace Jeff Backus.

The Lions’ Offensive Guard situation is one of the most interesting on the team.  The only sure thing is RG Stephen Peterman, who played very well until his ankle injury.  On the left side, trade conquest Rob Sims, heretofore of the Seahawks, will be starting—but he’ll be playing on a one-year RFA tender offer.  Whether the Lions extend him to a long-term deal, or let him walk in 2011, could depend on the two Lions (and former Texas Tech Red Raiders) who just signed their own RFA tenders: Manny Ramirez and Dylan Gandy.

Ramirez, finally off the bench after languishing under Marinelli, was constantly in and out of the lineup, platooning with the now-released Loper at right guard.  The fact that they tendered him shows they still believe in his potential--but then, they tendered Loper, too, and he's now gone.  Gandy did okay, but not great, in relief of Peterman.  Gandy has the ability to play center, too, so he provides some versatility.

The Lions are set at guard for 2010: Sims and Peterman, with Ramirez and Gandy backing them up.  However, if the Lions don’t think either of the reserves has a long-term future as a starter, I could easily see the Lions drafting a guard.  The Lions need a long-term answer at left guard—but they may already have one.

At Center, the Lions have the same answer they've had for nine years: Dominic Raiola.  Though, like Backus, a popular punching bag for his youthful mistakes, Raiola has been a consistently tough, intelligent, athletic presence in the middle of the line.  He’s not a mauler, but he’s excellent at the second level.  Therefore, he’s not a perfect fit for what the Lions want to do in the run game, and he will start to decline in the next few years—but for now he’s solid, and Gandy can back him up.  The Lions could use a power-blocking center, to groom behind Raiola.

So, here's the shopping list:

• A developmental quarterback who could push Stanton in camp.
• A starting, three-down power runningback with speed.
• A developmental pass-catching tight end, with athleticism and speed
• A left tackle, who could be groomed to replace Jeff Backus.
• A power-blocking center, to be groomed behind Raiola.

There are also two positions that are filled for 2010, but—depending on the Lions’ opinion—could be needs for 2011 and beyond:

• A wide reciever with speed, possibly with special teams usefulness.
• A long-term answer at left guard, if the Lions don't extend Rob Sims.

. . . defense coming soon!

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,nfl,nfl draft,team needs,2010 nfl draft

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Williams, Burleson, Vanden Bosch: Gasoline on the Lions' Little Blue Flame

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Last night, I posted, and we liveblogged, in anticipation—wondering, waiting, hoping.  What would the Lions do?  Who would they pursue?  Would their “selective, aggressive” approach net them real building blocks, stopgap solutions, or nothing at all?  Would we have reasons to jump for joy, and rekindle our hope, or trying to get over our disappointment?  Our impatience was rewarded: we didn’t even have to wait for midnight for the first move.

The Lions sent the later of their two fifth round picks to Cleveland, and in return got Corey Williams, and the Browns’ seventh-rounder.  Williams, a 6’-4”, 320-pound defensive tackle, was a sixth-round pick of the Packers in 2004.  He saw spot duty for two years, then—after notching two sacks against the Lions in 2006—took over the starting job.

Williams garnered 7 sacks in both ‘06 and 07, even being named the GMC Defensive Player of the Week for his 2-sack, 4-solo-tackle, 2-forced-fumble performance against Carolina.  Following a tough playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl-winning New York Giants, wherein Williams had 4 solo tackles and 5 assists, the Packers placed the franchise tag on Willliams.

However, the Packers traded Williams to the Browns, in exchange for a second-round pick.  Williams was to move from his natural 4-3 tackle position to a 3-4 end spot, flanking fellow 2008 Browns acquisition Shaun Rogers.  Given his big-body size and pass-rusher speed, Williams seemed to be an ideal fit for what the Browns wanted to do.

Unfortunately, Williams simply failed to produce as an end.  Despite starting every game, Williams only managed a half a sack in 2008.  Relegated to the rotation for almost all of 2009, Williams was mostly invisible, but occasionally flashed his old form.  He got his first start of 2009 against Pittsburgh in Week 14—and responded with 5 solo tackles and 2 sacks, leading the Browns to one of the most improbable upsets of 2009.

Corey Williams, at age 29, with seven years of experience, is the kind of foundational veteran in his prime that the Lions have so few of.  With him as a pass-rushing 3-technique (and despite my confusion last night, that’s what he is), and Hill at the 1-tech, the Lions will have 650 pounds of beef in the middle of the line.  That could be the kind of “you won’t run against us” interior the Lions want to build.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether Williams will recapture the form that earned him the Packers’ franchise tag—but, given the pittance they gave up to get him—moving down from the middle of the fifth to the early seventh—it’s a huge win for Mayhew and the Lions.

Nate Burleson is a player I’ve always admired.  When the Vikings were at the peak of their Dennis Green, pinball-numbers, media-fawning-all-over-them, not-winning-anything-ness, Burleson stood out as a smart, tough, talented player who wreaked havoc in the margins between Randy Moss and Marcus Robinson.

In fact, in only his second year since being drafted in the third round, he led the Vikings in receptions and yards (68/1,006), and finished second only to Randy Moss in TDs (9 to Moss’s 13).  This was partially due to him taking over for Moss for a few games when Moss tweaked a hamstring—but production is production. 

Then, there was the whole Poison Pill fiasco.  Seattle, whose All-Pro guard, Steve Hutchinson, had been pilfered by the Vikings—because the Vikings had included a clause that made Hutchinson’s entire contract fully guaranteed if he was ever not the highest-paid offensive lineman on the roster.  Since Seattle was already paying LT Walter Jones more than Hutchinson’s offer, they “couldn’t” match the offer sheet.  In retaliation, the Seahawks signed Burleson to an offer sheet with a clause making the entire contract guaranteed if he played more than five games in one season in the state of Minnesota.

Burleson didn't quite match his 2004 performance in his first year as a Seahawk--but catching 50 balls for 694 yards and 9 TDs wasn’t too shabby.  He showed the burst and open-field moves that a receiver needs in the Bill Walsh offense; he took short passes from Matt Hasselbeck and stretched them out to an average 13.9 yards per catch.

In 2008, the sky was the limit—until Burleson tore his ACL in the season opener, putting him on the shelf until 2009.  He was on pace for an excellent ‘09 campaign, until he suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 13.  Still, he finished with 63 catches for 812 yards and 3 TDs—right in line with his career pace.

When Burleson's healthy, he produces at a pace that’d net him 60-80 catches for a year, at 12-14 YpC.  This is a world apart from Bryant Johnson’s miserable 35-catch, 417-yard performance in 2009.  Moreover, Burleson has the quickness, route-running ability, hands, and toughness to make teams pay for single-covering him with their #2 corner.  He’s the perfect weapon to exploit the aerated coverage he’ll see when playing with Megatron.

With his tough-as-nails approach to the game, and his intelligence, Kyle Vanden Bosch is Jim Schwartz’ kind of player—and Jim Schwartz’s kind of man.  At Nebraska, he was a three-time Big 12 All-Academic selection, and finished his bachelor’s degree in finance with a 3.82 GPA.  He was also Nebraska’s three-time Lifter of the Year.  His 6-4”, 270-pound frame is a prototypical match to Schwartz’s ideal.

Perhaps, then, Vanden Bosch wasn’t surprised Schwartz arrived on Kyle’s doorstep at midnight.  They spent all the wee hours together sharing some vino, and talking some football:

"He said, 'We want to bring you in to be a big-time player,'" Vanden Bosch said. "Not a figurehead. ... He said, 'I watched the tape last year and you're still the same player you were two years ago [when he had 12 sacks for the Titans]. It's just one thing here or there.' ... It was good to hear that again."

The stats, of course, don’t really bear that out: Vanden Bosch had 31 sacks in 2005, 2006, and 2007 combined--but only 7.5 in 2008 and 2009 combined.  Part of that was due to a groin injury robbing him of 10 games in 2008, but as I said before: production is production.

Was Vanden Bosch just a beneficiary of the Titans’ great DT play?  Is he a shadow of his former self?  Will he be a teacher’s pet, a "system guy” whose skills have left him?  According to Tom Kowalski, the answer to those questions is “no”.

Obviously, we’ll find that all out soon enough.  For now, what matters is that the Lions have addressed three of their most important needs: DT, DE, and WR, with veterans who aren’t perfect—but are perfect fits for what the Lions want to do.

The Lions can’t—shouldn’t, anyway—be done.  With the release of Philip Buchanon, the Lions have exactly zero legitimate starting cornerbacks.  The free-agent pickings are somewhat slim there, with only Lito Sheppard catching the eye as a possible step-in-and-start UFA.  There are, however, a few interesting safeties available, and the Lions may yet make a move at left guard.

The National Football Post is reporting that the Lions are in the running for Houston G Chester Pitts, who's a huge, experienced veteran coming off of knee surgery.  Pitts has played both left guard and left tackle, making his versatility a bonus. 

Regardless of who else the Lions pick up--or who else they acquire by trade--today was a huge, huge win for the Lions.  They were selective, they were aggressive, and they made their football team much, much better.  Here’s to more of the same—and a sold out home opener.

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,2010 free agency,2010 offseason,nfl free agency,nfl,kyle vanden bosch,nate burleson,corey williams,cleveland browns,seattle seahawks,jim schwartz

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Of Potholes and Veterans: 2010 NFL Free Agency

Yesterday, my wife and elder daughter were at the Breslin, watching the MSU women’s hoops team take out Northwestern.  There were only two tickets available, so my son ended up being an unwilling non-participant.  Given his love of all things motorsport, I figured a quick jaunt out to a sports bar for a big-screen viewing of the Daytona 500 would lift his spirits.

Along with my way-too-close-to-two-years-old-for-my-comfort younger daughter, we got a table right next to a big projection screen—with the 500, in all its red-flagged-glory, on glorious display.  That’s right; I took my kids out to watch the Daytona 500 on the biggest possible screen, and we didn’t see a lap of actual racing.

The good folks at Daytona ended up just pouring a bunch of Bondo in the hole and runnin’ ‘em anyway; any car guy will call that poetic justice.  However, their old-school solution produced some serious problems: the finish was marred by wreck after wreck. Four-time champ Jimmie Johnson at least superficially blamed his late-race DNF on the gerry-rigged surface.

Upon closer inspection, it turns out the Daytona Beach superspeedway hadn’t been resurfaced since 1978; three years before this blogger was born.  It seems preposterous that I have conscious memories of Interstate freeways being built with public funds, while the crown jewel of American motorsport rolls on dated pavement—but there it is.

It’s hard not to draw parallels to the state of the Lions’ roster; the “345” pounds of Bondo filling the middle of the defensive line comes readily to mind.  It became obvious during the season that the aging veterans the Lions were relying upon to patch the roster weren’t doing the trick; the core of the roster has to be rebuilt.

The core of a successful NFL team is its young veterans: the 25-to-30-year-olds who have honed their craft through experience, but haven’t yet lost their youthful athleticism.  I present to you all the core of the Lions’ roster, in ascending age order:

• WR Calvin Johnson
• DL Turk McBride
• OT Corey Hilliard
• LB Ernie Sims
• QB Drew Stanton
• SS Marvin White
• SS Ko Simpson
• TE Matthew Michaels
• DE Jason Hunter
• DB Kevin Hobbs
• SS Daniel Bullocks
• OG Manny Ramirez
• CB Eric King
• OG Dylan Gandy
• OG Daniel Loper
• OG Stephen Peterman
• LS Don Muhlbach
• MLB Cody Spencer
• WR Bryant Johnson
• TE Casey Fitzsimmons
• OLB Vinny Circiu

Wow.  I knew this would be brutal, but it surpasses even my worst fears.  Of the 21 players that met my criteria, you could release all but four of them without any impact on the Lions’ 2009 performance*, or 2010 team potential: Megatron, Sims, Peterman, and Muhlbach.

The criteria were tough to define.  Brandon Pettigrew is 25, but just finished his rookie year—and Ernie Sims is only two months older, but has already played four seasons.  I set the lower bound at “at least 24 years old, with three or more completed seasons”, and the upper bound at “no more than 30 years old, or 7 completed seasons”.

If that seems like a narrow window, it is; time is short in the NFL.  We already speak of the “aging” Larry Foote and his “diminished skills”—yet, he’s only 29.  His eight years of service just barely disqualified him from this list.

Further, the 2009 draft class has been pushed into starting roles far more quickly than they would have on any other team.  It’s undeniable that Stafford, Pettigrew, Delmas, Levy, and Hill are starting-caliber talents, but to varying degrees they all could have benefitted from the time and space to develop before getting thrust out into the fray.  They’re the “core” of the team, but only because the actual core of the team lays in ruins.

What can be done?  Not much.  The answer should be to pursue these types of players in free agency, but this is an especially bad year to do so.  The vagaries of the CBA and the 2010 uncapped year mean that the four- and five-year veterans who’d be coming into the open market are now restricted free agents; if tendered at a decent level they’re nearly unsignable.

Here’s a reasonably complete list of six- and seven-year starter-caliber veterans who’ll be unrestricted free agents come March:

• OLB Karlos Dansby
• DT Vince Wilfork
• MLB Gary Brackett
• CB Dunta Robinson
• WR Nate Burleson
• DT Aubrayo Franklin
• OLB Pisa Tinoisamoa
• WR Antonio Bryant
• WR Kevin Walter
• FS Will Allen

Wilfork and Franklin will be slapped with the franchise tag, taking them off the market.  Robinson will almost certainly be either tagged or re-signed to a monster deal, as the Texans have almost no one behind him at cornerback.  The 5’-11”, 235-pound Brackett doesn’t fit the Lions’ system at all, and the same goes for Tinoisamoa.

Burleson, Bryant, and Walter are legitimate options as #2 WRs, but it’s questionable whether Bryant or Walter represent a head-and-shoulders upgrade over Bryant Johnson.  Besides Burleson, Will Allen is another strong possibility.  A special-teams standout with experience at both free and strong safety, Allen missed most of last year with a broken thumb, and could be a nice complement to Louis Delmas.

Unfortunately, that’s about the extent of it: a handful of wideouts and a safety.  Any further attempts at rebuilding the young-veteran talent foundation of the Lions would involve either signing a restricted free agent, or making a trade—both which would almost certainly involve surrendering draft picks, with I don’t see Mayhew doing under almost any circumstance.

The more I look at the free agent market, the more I realize that, like Sunday’s Daytona 500, we’ll waiting a long time before the Lions’ roster is competitive again.  All we can hope for is that, like the 500, when they finally get there, it’s worth it.

* obviously, if they released Loper, Ramirez, and Gandy the Lions would have nobody to play left guard.  The idea here is that all of these guys are fungible; you can exchange a Dylan Gandy for a Rex Hadnot whenever you want, but a Jahri Evans is much tougher to come by.

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