Three Cups Deep: Waking Up Late

In the Watchtower for this game, I followed up fifteen hundred words, or thereabouts, of doom and gloom, with the following:

Every single piece of data I have, both objective and subjective, points to a Cardinals blowout.  However, there has not been a more “off” and “on” team over the past two seasons than the Cardinals.  The one thing they haven’t done in this Warner/Fitz/Boldin/Whisenhunt era is meet expectations—they beat teams they shouldn’t beat and look amazing doing it, and they lose to teams they have no business losing to, and look horrible doing it.
Further, I can’t imagine that a Jim Schwartz team comes back for a home game after a bad performance and rolls over from the opening gun--if so, it should raise some serious red flags.  My instincts tell me this will be more like a 35-21 loss—but if Culpepper plays, and Fitz and Boldin don’t take the game off, I don’t see how the Lions keep it that close.

Amazingly, though Culpepper and Fitzgerald both started yesterday, my “instincts” proved accurate.  As tough as it was to watch the offense founder and struggle to move the ball, let alone score points, we did get to see exactly what I was watching for: heart, effort, moxie, stick-to-it-itiveness, whatever you want to call it.  The Lions did not roll over and die at the coin toss, nor did they roll over and die when they went into halftime down 17-0.
I’m not going to beat the Culpepper/Stanton thing to death.  I’ve made my position on the issue clear: Stanton may, or may not, be any better than Culpepper right now, but Culpepper has no future here, or anywhere else.  Stanton's future, at least, is still undetermined—and if this season ends without giving him one week as a starter, it’ll be a crime.
While Stanton certainly didn’t play the position of quarterback any better than Culpepper, it’s undeniable that the team performed better while Stanton was at the helm.  Coincidence?  Perhaps.  But when Culpepper’s been outscored like 91-3 in his last three starts, you take any coincidence you get.
What blew me away yesterday was the play of the defensive line.  It looked as though The Real Cliff Avril finally got his uniform back yesterday—and Grady Jackson played like the he-beast he is.  On multiple occasions, the Lions’ defensive line won multiple one-on-one battles at the same time; on other teams, this isn’t cause for celebration—but for the Lions?  Pop the bubbly.
The kick coverage units did a reasonable job as well; Zack Follett gave the Cardinals a big ol’ dose of the Pain Train yesterday (Mrs. Ty nearly filed divorce papers after I stood up and “WOO WOO"’d in the middle of the bar).  Of course, they also gave up a huge return at the end of the 4th, that handed the game to the Cards—but at least they waited that long!
The offensive line played with some grit . . . but committed a plethora of false starts, including a drive-killing consecutive pair in the 2nd quarter.  Gosder Cherilus is showing a positively Culpepperian knack for making just a few mistakes—but really, really stupid ones at the worst possible times.
Overall, we’re left with a familiar feeling: the “moral victory”.  The “good loss”.  The “at least it was, or wasn’t . . .”  Is there anything left to say?  Is there anything left to do?  Yes.  It’s time to make the coffee . . .

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the Watchtower: Lions vs. Cardinals

Last week’s Watchtower, in the words of excellent commenter A Lion in ViQueen Territory, kind of sucked:

I’m sticking with the data here, folks, shaky though it might be: 21-24 points for the Ravens, and 9-13 points for the Lions.

A 48-3 blowout doesn’t look anything like the low-scoring 10ish-point game I predicted.  However, if we dig a little deeper, you’ll see that my prediction came with some pretty strong caveats:

Given a complete lack of data to work with, I can only project the Lions’ offensive production to meet expectations, given the current performance of the two units this year . . . I have very low confidence in this prediction . . . The Lions’ offense IS trending toward respectability, but the leader and triggerman is gone, and they’re playing their second straight road game against a top 5 scoring defense.

For the Lions’ D vs. the Ravens’ O, I projected numbers based on an observed effect: that Gunther’s defenses are supereffective against Cam Cameron offenses when the passing game is contained.  Up until the freaky Mason touchdown, that was exactly what had happened.  Believe it or not, that game was 0-3 at the end of the first quarter—and a Hanson miss away from being tied.

Unfortunately, the offense hung the defense out to dry over and over again—it was only a matter of time before they folded.  If Culpepper and the offense had any ability to control the ball, or keep the game close, I don’t think the defense would have rolled over in the second half (as they did), and let Ravens score 4 more touchdowns.

Unfortunately, the high-flying Cardinals are coming to town, and their scoring may be limited only by the game clock . . .

Gunther Cunningham vs. Ken Whisenhunt

Whi

Gun

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

YpA

INT

YpC

Sack

2009

ARI

DET

11th

23.5

6.88

4.16

32nd

31.2

8.00

4.50

For the second week in a row, the Lions face a coordinator with absolutely no track record against their opposing Lions counterpart.  Whisenhunt’s only called signals since 2004 (with the Cards as HC, and the Steelers as OC), and Gunther hasn’t faced Whisenhunt since then.  As Whisenhunt doesn’t come from a clearly delineated coaching heritage, we can’t use any “school of/disciple of” workarounds, either.

All we have to go on here are the season averages: Arizona’s the 11th-best scoring offense in the league, averaging 23.5 points per game.  Averaging a healthy 6.88 YpA, and surprisingly robust 4.16 YpC, the Cardinals are more balanced than you might suspect—though doubtlessly, defenses are laying back in fear of the Cards’ receivers, not loading the box to stop Beanie Wells.  These averages are practically identical to the Ravens’ stats coming into last week: 10th-ranked scoring offense, 23.4 PpG, 6.95 YpA, and 4.25 YpC.

Meanwhile, Sunday's debacle against the Ravens dropped the Lions' stats across the board; they're now allowing an average of 31.2 PpG, 8.00 YpA, and 4.50 YpC.  Since all we have to go on are the averages—and the Cards’ averages very closely match the Ravens’—it’s straight connect-the-dots: expectations would be that the Cardinals significantly exceed their season averages in PpG, YpA, and YpC: 40-45 points, 9.00-10.00 YpA, and 5.00-5.50 YpC.  I guess that serves as my prediction?  If so, I have very low confidence in it.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Here's a disturbing trend: in two of the Lions’ last four games (Browns, Ravens) they’ve faced opponents coming off of a deflating Monday Night Football loss, where the offense drastically underperformed its season averages.  Guess which team just got blown out on MNF last night, while drastically underperforming its season averages?  Oh yes—the Cardinals.

I deeply suspect that Warner, Fitz, Boldin, Beanie and the rest of the Cardinals offense will be itching to take out their frustrations on the Lions, and get back on track—just like the Ravens did.  Moreover, the hit-or-miss nature of the Cards’ offense (even with the same QB!) underscores the idea that they’ll bounce back from Monday’s performance.

On the other hand, this game will be in Ford Field, where the Lions are unquestionably more competitive.  Matthew Stafford is at least not yet ruled out, and if the Lions’ offense can actually move the chains and possess the ball a little bit, the defense should be able to not be quite so horrible.  I think. 

Scott Linehan vs. Billy Davis

Lin	Dav	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
MIN	NYG*	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	17th	21.7	6.49	4.33	13	5.63	2	4.65	0-0
STL	SFO	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	32nd	25.8	6.89	4.96	13	5.44	0	4.21	6-38
STL	SFO	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	32nd	25.8	6.89	4.96	20	6.16	1	4.83	2-19
DET		27th	16.1	5.39	3.81	13th	19.8	6.45	4.16

Fortunately, we do have a little bit of data to work with here.  Bill Davis (often “Billy”, thanks to being a Jr.) has a surprisingly long resume for someone I’d never heard of.  He was an assistant under Dom Capers in Pittsburgh, and then a linebackers coach under Capers in Carolina.  After Capers was broomed, he bounced around for a couple of years, then became linebackers coach in Atlanta, under DC Wade Phillips.  That's an impressive 3-4 pedigree! 

Finally, in 2004, he became a linebackers coach with some authority.  According to Giants DC Tim Lewis, he allowed Davis to compile the blitz packages.  I’m tentatively including this data, just to flesh things out a bit.  After that, he was hired by new 49ers head coach Mike Nolan to head up

In 2004, the Minnesota Vikings were very good.  Ranked #6 in the NFL, they averaged 25.3 points per game, 7.16 YpA, and 4.71 YpC.  Meanwhile, the Giants were a decent unit: 17th-ranked, at 21.7 PpG, 6.49 YpA, and 4.33 YpC.  The expectation here would be that the Vikes meet or exceed their typical numbers—but they don’t.  Only 13 points scored, and a measly 5.63 YpA.  4.65 YpC is still good, but not enough to overcome the massive pass suppression.

In 2006, Linehan’s Rams faced Davis’ 49ers.  The Rams were still a typical Linehan offense: 10th in scoring, with a balanced 6.69 YpA and 4.26 YpC.  Meanwhile, the Niners . . . well, they were rebuilding.  They were the worst scoring defense in football, allowing 25.8 PpG.  While they weren’t great against the pass, allowing 6.89 YpA, they were terrible against the run.  Allowing an average of 4.96 YpC is going to make any offense impossible to stop.

Except, apparently, Linehan’s Rams that year.  In the first game, the Niners held the Rams to just 13 points.  They sacked the Rams six times, depressing per-play pass effectiveness to 5.44 YpA, more than a yard less than their season average.  The run game was also depressed; the 4.21 YpC the Niners allowed in the first game fell essentially met the Rams’s season average—despite playing against the statistically worst defense in the NFL.

In the second game, the Rams picked it up a little bit--20 points scored, 6.16 YpA, and 4.83 YpC.  Still, though, the points and passing were depressed below the Rams' averages--not expectations vs. the worst defense in football, the season averages—and the 4.83 YpC was still below the Niners’ average-allowed mark.

The conclusion is absolutely inescapable—with lesser, or much lesser, talent and execution, Billy Davis defenses have an overwhelming systemic advantage against Scott Linehan offenses.  In 2006, the 10th-best offense in football played the dead-last defense in football, twice, and both times produced well below their season averages, across the board.  The only explanation is that Billy Davis has Scott Linehan’s number.

Given that the shoe is on the other foot—the Cards’ defense is the 13th-best in the NFL, and the Lions’ O is the 27th-best—I have no choice but to project the Lions's offense to . . . good Lord . . . significantly underperform expectations: 6-9 points scored, 4.50-5.00 YpA, and 3.5-3.75 YpC.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Schwartz is back to the maybe-maybe not game with the Lions’ quarterback situation.  Let us make no bones about it: when Daunte Culpepper starts, the Lions are doomed.  In his last two starts, the Lions have been outscored 74-3.  If Matthew Stafford does not play, the Lions will be very lucky to score the projected 6-9 points. 

Starting tailback Kevin Smith is lost for the season with a torn ACL (plus maybe some other stuff).  Maurice Morris, Aaron Brown, and just-signed practice squadder Cedric Peerman will fill in.  Morris is a well-rounded veteran, who’s run hard in limited relief.  Brown has flashed game-breaking ability in both senses: he can break the game wide open on a screen pass, and he can get his quarterback broken with his clueless pass blocking.

Conclusion:

Every single piece of data I have, both objective and subjective, points to a Cardinals blowout.  However, there has not been a more “off” and “on” team over the past two seasons than the Cardinals.  The one thing they haven’t done in this Warner/Fitz/Boldin/Whisenhunt era is meet expectations—they beat teams they shouldn’t beat and look amazing doing it, and they lose to teams they have no business losing to, and look horrible doing it.

Further, I can’t imagine that a Jim Schwartz team comes back for a home game after a bad performance and rolls over from the opening gun--if so, it should raise some serious red flags.  My instincts tell me this will be more like a 35-21 loss—but if Culpepper plays, and Fitz and Boldin don’t take the game off, I don’t see how the Lions keep it that close.

The only hope for the Lions is the Cunningham/Whisenhunt matchup—they’ve never faced each other before, and Gunther’s certainly much more experienced.  Maybe, just maybe, a little dose of Guntherball flummoxes Warner early, and the sacks and turnovers come—as they did on Monday Night.

However, this is a statistical analysis, not a "Let's pretend the Lions won't get blown out, despite all rational thought" column. 40-45 points for the Cardinals, and 6-9 points for the Lions.

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Three Cups Deep: this one hurts

In yesterday’s gameday post, I said:

Today is either the day the Lions roar back to respectability--or the day the scavengers pick their bones clean.

Well, we have our answer.

I actually fell asleep in the second half.  What was the point?  Ray Rice was running at will, the Lions couldn’t score to save their lives, and—against all rational thought—Daunte Culpepper played until the bitter end.

It beggars belief: he completed only 16 of his 34 passes, for only 135 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions.  It was a long, miserable day by any measure.  What doesn't show in those numbers, however, is this play:

3-4-BAL 44
(13:41) (Shotgun) 11-D.Culpepper FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 50, and recovers at DET 50. 11-D.Culpepper to DET 50 for no gain (26-D.Landry).

That play emobdies everything I always scream about with Culpepper.  It’s the second quarter.  The Lions are down by just three points, having already missed a field goal.  After driving into Baltimore territory, two straight three-yard runs by Kevin Smith put the Lions in a 3rd-and-4 situation. 

This is what they call keeping your offense “on schedule”; giving the offense a great chance to convert on third down.  It’s what good offenses do, and it’s an ability Lions offenses have lacked since . . well, ever.  With this favorable situation, Linehan went to his “third and short” playbook, and pulled out a play from a shotgun, multi-WR set—doubtlessly looking to give Culpepper several close, easy targets.  If the Lions convert, they’re at Baltimore’s 40, or closer, with a new set of downs.  Instead,  Raiola’s shotgun snap hits Culpepper in the hands, and he drops it.

It’ll show up on the stat sheet as a fumble, yes—but not a “lost” fumble, and certainly not as a “an inexcusable f-up that absolutely killed his team’s chances to win”, which is what it was.  Culpepper’s entire career—yes, even when he was almost MVP or whatever—has been afflicted with this plague: an incredible knack for making horrible plays at the worst possible times.

After a punt, and two plays, Derrick Mason took a pair of brutal hits, ran to the end zone, and opened the floodgates.  While this was arguably the result of the Lions’ DBs going for big hits instead of tackling, I’d submit that Mason is on a two-man list of Receivers Tough Enough To Take That Hit and Keep Standing.  Really, at that point, the defense had still done remarkably well.

For all the press about '”RAVENS DESTROY LIONS IN LAUGHABLE BLOWOUT”, with three minutes left in the first half, the Lions were down by only two score.  They had the ball on their own 28, and had just begun a drive that could bring it to a 1-TD deficit.  Then . . .

Culpepper sack.

Culpepper INT.

Ravens drive and field goal.

Halftime.

28 unanswered points.

I hope Schwartz isn’t just blowing smoke when he called this performance was “unacceptable”, because that’s exactly what it was.  The defense simply rolled over.  After standing tall against one of the better rushing offenses in football last week, the Lions allowed 308 yards rushing on 40 attempts; 7.7 YpC.

Meanwhile, the offense kept pounding its head against the wall . . . hoping, I guess that the wall would break?  Granted, conditions were absolutely wretched out there—at one point, it appeared to be a downpour of freezing rain—but it seemed like there was an impenetrable forcefield at the Ravens’ 30-yard line.  Stafford can’t come back soon enough.

Speaking of which, is there anyone who still thinks that Daunte gives the Lions the "best chance to win"?  Even if he did, would it matter?  Drew Stanton again was robbed of any chance to prove himself—why?  We know Culpepper won’t be back here next year.  Kevin Smith blew out his ACL, and possibly ruined his 2010 campaign—why?  To what end?  What on earth were he and Daunte still doing out there?

Let’s face it: the 2009 season is now over.  There’s no point in veterans veterans over youth if said veterans aren’t part of the future plans.  Believe you me, there are some players on this team whose walking papers were filled out yesterday afternoon; I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those papers were served at some point this week.

The Lions need to move on from this loss, and this season, as quickly as possible: cut the deadwood, sign some practice squadders, and get on with the business of Maybe Next Year.

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the watchtower: lions at Ravens

At first glance, last week’s edition of the Watchtower appeared to be nearly perfect:

I'm going to stick with the data: 20-24 points for the Bengals, and 7-9 points for the Lions.

However, besides the Lions getting a late TD to exceed my expectations, 7 of the Bengals’ 23 points came on a defensive TD.  The results of the offense/defense interactions, then, was a very narrow 17-13 margin for the Bengals.

I project 20-24 points, 8.0-8.5 YpA, and 4.25-4.5 YpC. I have extremely high confidence in this projection.

Oops.  The Lions' defense came up big, holding the Bengals to just 6.97 YpA, and--I advise sitting down--2.70 YpC.  Except for the play that was arguably the dagger in the Lions’ heart, the Lions completely contained one of the most physically talented QB/WR combos in the NFL.  With 44 rushing plays, that 2.70 YpC number is no fluke, either.  Sammie Hill was huge in this game, literally and figuratively.  All in all, the defense stepped up to a level I didn’t think they were quite capable of.

Of course, the skeptic in me points out that the Bengals have been notorious for playing to their level of competition this year, that Bengals’ OC Bob Bratkowski has been criticized for his conservative playcalling, and that the 16 penalties called in the game further disrupted rhythm, timing, and momentum—all of which played right into the Lions’ hands.  But hey, it worked.  If they can play as well next week in Baltimore as they played this week, they’ll again be competitive.  Speaking of which . . .

Cam Cameron vs. Gunther Cunningham

Cam	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
SDC	KCC	3rd	27.9	7.46	4.16	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	34	10.12	0	4.10	1-7
SDC	KCC	3rd	27.9	7.46	4.16	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	24	7.48	1	4.76	2-17
SDC	KCC	5th	26.1	6.64	4.46	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	28	7.75	1	3.77	0-0
SDC	KCC	5th	26.1	6.64	4.46	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	7	4.88	1	4.00	1-8
BAL	DET	10th	23.4	6.95	4.25	32nd	30.5	7.94	4.33

Cam Cameron is very familiar to midwestern football fans.  In his four years as head coach of Indiana University, with All-American QB Antwaan Randle-El under center, he won less than a third of his games.  He’s also very familiar to Floridian football fans.  In his one year as head coach of the Miami Dolphins, he one only one game—a freaky overtime TD away from beating the ‘08 Lions to the 0-16 punch.  However, Cameron is also very familiar to southern California football fans—as the architect of one of the most consistent, prolific offenses of the decade.

Cam Cameron is also very familiar to Gunther Cunningham.  For three seasons, 2004-2006, the two coached against each other in the AFC West division.  Regular readers know what that means: good data.  Though Cunningham ran Herm Edwards’ Tampa 2 defense in 2006, we still get four games between Cameron and Cunningham.  In ‘04, the Chargers were the #3 offense in football, averaging a whopping 27.9 points per game, a whopping 7.46 yards per pass attempt, and very-good-but-not-whopping 4.16 YpC.  Cunningam’s Chiefs, meanwhile, were the 29th-ranked scoring defense, probably better than expected given the appalling pass defense (8.05 YpA?).

Note that in the first game of 2004 and in the first game of 2005, the Chiefs held the Chargers’ running game to below its on-season average—quite a feat for a team allowing an 4.62 YpC average and facing LaDanian Tomlinson!  In fact, they held Tomlinson himself to a microscopic 2.19 YpC, and 4.09 YpC in the first contests of 2004 and 2005.  Cunningham must have entered each game absolutely dead set on containing Tomlinson, in order for the ‘04 and ‘05 Chiefs to hold the line like that.  It follows, then, that in both of those games, the Chiefs greatly outpaced their average effectiveness in the passing game, and scored points right in line with expectations.

However, looking at the second games of ‘04 and ‘05, we see the opposite effect: the Chiefs held the passing of the Chargers down below season averages, and also held the scoring down as well.  I was tempted to dismiss this effect when I noted it in the 2004 game, as the Chargers had already clinched the division and were resting their starters.  However, the pattern manifests itself much more plainly in the second game of 2005, when the Chiefs were the median defense instead of one of the worst.  They depressed the passing game severely, holding Drew Brees and company to just 4.88 yards per attempt—nearly two yards per attempt below either the season average gained for the Chargers (6.64) or allowed by the Chiefs (6.58).  The result?  The #5 scoring offense in the NFL put up seven measly points against the #16 scoring defense in the NFL.

There is a bit of a chicken-and-egg thing here; I can practically hear Ron Jaworski pounding the table and hollering, “POINTS COME OUT OF THE PASSING GAME!”  Were there fewer points scored because the passing game wasn’t working, or were the passing stats limited by the denial of long scoring plays?  One clue is in the disruption numbers: when Cunningham defenses depress scoring, it’s usually as a direct, or indirect, result of sacks or forced turnovers.  In this case, though, there was only 1 sack, 1 INT, and one fumble lost.  Enough to impact scoring, yes, but not hold a 26.1 PpG offense to a single score.

This is as strong of a statistical correlation as I’ve seen.  I’m comfortable stating it as fact: when Gunther Cunningham commits to denying Cam Cameron the run game, Cameron’s offenses merely throw more effectively, and score the expected amount of points.  When Gunther Cunningham commits to containing Cam Cameron’s passing offense, scoring is curtailed to well below expectations.

In 2009, Cam Cameron's offense, led by Joe Flacco, got off to a very hot start, leading talking heads to conclude early in the season that Baltimore is now an offense-first team. However, they’ve cooled off a bit since then.  They’re now the 10th-best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging a very healthy 23.4 points per game.  Average per-play effectiveness for both passing and running is very high: 6.95 YpA, and 4.25 YpC.

This is indeed a very balanced, effective offense, despite no real “studs” in the backfield or in space (no slight intended to Derrick Mason, but Larry Fitzgerald, he is not).  Despite the differences in ordinal rankings, which might lend credence to Gunther’s rant about tackling these days, this Ravens offense actually ranks in between the ‘04 and ‘05 Chargers in per-play effectiveness in the run and pass.  The field-goal-plus scoring disparity between these Ravens and those Chargers, though, points toward red zone problems.

Meanwhile, the Lions still have the 32nd-ranked—that is, worst--scoring defense in football: 30.5 points allowed per game.  Pass defense continues to be appalling, surrendering yards through the air at a 7.94 YpA clip.  The average opponent’s rushing attempt nets them 4.33 yards.  Given the state of the Lions’ secondary, and the way the Ravens have played this year, and the way it looks like Gunther figured Cameron out in the second game of the ‘05 season, I expect the Lions to load up to stop the pass.

Therefore, I’m going to gulp loudly and predict the Ravens to meet or slightly fall short of their season averages: 21-24 points, 6.5-7.0 YpA, and 4.25-4.75 YpC.  While I’m sure as I can be about the statistical effect I’ve seen above, I’m not so sure of Gunther’s game plan, so I’ll assign this projection medium-to-low confidence. 

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Offensively, the Ravens seem to be the opposite of the Bengals.  Where the Bengals seemed to be built for explosive downfield passing, yet have been relying on a power run game to make hay.  Meanwhile, the Ravens have been built around Willis McGahee and the defense for years—yet, Ray Rice, LeRon McClain, and a much-diminished McGahee are all cogs in a Flacco-triggered offense that’s been far more effective on-field than it is on paper.

However, the disparity between the Ravens’ ability to move the ball and ability to score feeds right into the strength of the Cunningham philosophy.  Think about the Thanksgiving game—in some cases, the end zone is the Lions’ best defender.  Removing the 20+ pass as a threat allows the Lions’ front seven to play more aggressively, and it allows the secondary to keep the play in front of them.  It’s possible that the Lions could hold the Ravens to even fewer points than I projected above.

Then again, the Ravens are at home, 6-6, fighting for a playoff spot, and recovering from a crushing Monday Night Football loss to the Packers.  It’s entirely possible that the Ravens come out looking to take out their frustrations on the Lions, and blow them out of the stadium.

Scott Linehan vs. Greg Mattison

I got nothin’.

Seriously, though, Greg Mattison’s NFL resumé is as long as last year.  Depsite a long, decorated tenure as a coordinator in the college ranks—think Florida, Notre Dame, and U-of-M—Mattison was hired last season by then-new head coach John Harbaugh to coach the linebackers.  When Rex Ryan left in the offseason to coach the Jets, Harbaugh promoted Mattison instead.  While the Ravens’ philosophy has stayed the same—aggressive, blitzing, no-holds-barred defense—I don’t believe that calling a man with 38 years of coaching experience a “disciple” of a man he worked under for one year is accurate.  Just for the record, though:

Lin	BAL	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
STL	BAL	28th	16.4	5.63	3.78	22nd	24.0	7.26	2.84	3	5.78	5	2.48	4-11
DET	BAL	24th	18.1	5.60	3.91	4th	17.1	6.72	3.54

When Scott Linehan’s horrible 2007 Rams offense that could sort-of run a little bit met the Ravens’ defense that allowed no running whatsoever, practically no points happened.  I don’t believe that this has any bearing on this Sunday’s contest.

However, the fact that Scott Linehan’s scoring offense is ranked 24th in the NFL, and Baltimore’s defense is ranked 4th?  That will have an awful lot of bearing on this Sunday’s contest.  Note, though, that that number keeps inching higher; at 18.1 points per game, the Lions are rapidly approaching the top of the bottom third of the league.  That, frankly, is ridiculous to point to as a positive, but such has been the state of the franchise.

Given a complete lack of data to work with, I can only project the Lions’ offensive production to meet expectations, given the current performance of the two units this year.  They should fall significantly short of their season average in points scored, while meeting or falling just shy of their passing and rushing effectiveness norms: 9-13 points, 5.00-5.50 YpA, and 3.50-4.00 YpC.  I have very low confidence in this prediction.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Unfortunately, with Matt Stafford already announced as inactive for this contest, that offense won’t be there.  Given that Megatron will be relatively healthy, I expect the offense’s play to be closer the Steelers game than the first Packers game—but we can’t be sure.  The Lions’ offense IS trending toward respectability, but the leader and triggerman is gone, and they’re playing their second straight road game against a top 5 scoring defense.  I don’t see any way the Lions surprise here, unless turnover margin or special teams swings the game wildly in the Lions’ favor—and that’s a long shot, indeed.

I’m sticking with the data here, folks, shaky though it might be: 21-24 points for the Ravens, and 9-13 points for the Lions.

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The Watchtower: Packers at Lions

Traditionally, I start each Watchtower with a postmortem analysis of the previous game’s Watchtower.  Suffice it to say, the Lions and Browns completely blew all of my predictions out of the water.  Regular commenter Matt actually did much better than I:

"You have to put the Browns' defense in perspective: MY perspective. My fantasy football team went into that game needing the Browns to hold Joe Flacco AND Ray Rice to less than 14 points. They combined for 13! This threw me into a 4-way division tie (all 5-5) instead of being two games back. The Browns D also aided this by keeping the Ravens' kicker in check. So, even though the team lost, the Browns D was simply stepping up to help out a fantasy football geek. :-) We can now extrapolate this to next week's Lions/Browns game. The only player from this game on either fantasy roster is Matt Stafford (my opponent as no Lions or Browns). He will be on my bench behind Brett Favre. This surely means that Stafford will have his break-out game, throwing for 400 yards and 5 TDs, as the Lions completely trounce the Browns while my Las Vegas Kings lose a heartbreaker. :-)"

When I initially penned the last Watchtower, it was on the heels of a game where the Browns had played the Ravens; they threw the ball further than five yards downfield only a handful of times.  Not only did the announcers in the booth call this out as it happened, the postgame analysts carped on it as well--and then the Cleveland media, national NFL media, and entire football blogosphere spent the next entire week flogging the Browns for their total lack of downfield balls.

Pun intended.

It only stands to reason, then, that with the 31st-ranked scoring defense--minus some starters in the secondary, and minus some of the replacements for those starters—next on the schedule, the Browns would give downfield passing a whirl.  The results were, well, typical.  Meanwhile the Lions, rather than getting ahead early and turning to Kevin Smith as I’d predicted, again abandoned the run and asked Stafford to win the ballgame.  This time, it worked.

Okay, the Packers:

Mike McCarthy vs. Gunther Cunningham

	McC	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
2003	NOS	TEN	14	21.2	6.43	4.46	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	12	8.04	0	1.53	3-20
2004	NOS	KCC	14	21.8	6.62	3.96	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	27	9.59	1	5.83	4-19
2009	GBP	DET	8th	26.2	7.41	4.46	32nd	30.1	7.84	4.47	26	9.68	1	3.57	5-30

The Packers are the second team to feel the searing gaze of the eye atop the Watchtower twice in one season.  The first time around, I concluded that:

Given equal or greater talent, Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive 4-3 disproportionately disrupts Mike McCarthy’s downfield flavor of the Bill Walsh offense. Given lesser talent, Gunther’s 4-3 will cap offensive production with sacks and turnovers, even while allowing better-than-average offensive effectiveness between the 20s.

Then, in the midseason review of the Watchtower feature, I smugly pointed out that:

• The Packers scored 26 points, which exactly matched their average on the season to that point.
• Aaron Rodgers completed 29 of 37, for a whopping 358 yards (and 9.68 yards per attempt!).
• Rodgers, however, was sacked five times, and intercepted once. The Lions also forced three fumbles, recovering one.
• Rodgers passed for only two touchdowns, and those were on the first two drives (one of which started on the Lions' 17).
• The Packers as a whole did not score a touchdown after cashing in on the opening-drive Culpepper turnover.

Of course, things are a little different now.  The Lions’ secondary has been decimated, degrading said unit from “suspect” to “dumpster fire”.  The Packers’ offense has clicked a little more, too, with the OL protecting better than, you know, not at all, and the WRs beginning to get open deep again.  Though my conclusions about McCarthy’s offense and Cunningham’s defense proved to be spookily correct the first time around, merely projecting a repeat of the prior game would be hubris.

Let's instead look at the Packers’ current stats, the Lions’ current stats, and then apply the same advantage to those figures.  The Packers are now the 8th-best scoring offense, averaging 26.2 PpG.  They’re passing for an impressive 7.41 YpA, and rushing for a surprising 4.46 YpG.  Meanwhile, the Lions are allowing 30.1 PpG, surrendering 7.84 YpA, and being run on to the tune of 4.47 YpG. 

One would expect the Packers to significantly outperform their season averages—that is, score well over 26 points, and gain passing and rushing yards at a pace well over their typical per-play average.  However, if we apply the systemic advantage it appears Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive defenses have against Mike McCarthy’s offense, scoring should be somewhere above the Lions’ allowed average—the Packers are a well-above-average offense—but below, like, a zillion points.  Meanwhile, the Pack should be able to move between the 20s more or less at will.

Therefore, the Packers should score 34-38 points, pass for 9.00-10.00 YpA, and run for 4.50-4.75 YpC. I have very high confidence in this prediction.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

If it weren't for the frequent turnovers by, and rampant futility of, the Lions offense, the Packers might not have scored even the 26 points that they did. Moreover, the Lions were without Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson--which, as we've discussed before, absolutely destroys the Lions' offense.

Of course, the Lions may not have Stafford or Megatron available this time, either, but if they do play, the defense won’t be hung out to dry as badly as before. Also, the Lions’ defense was even more banged up last time—3/4ths of the starting defensive line was out---so the crappy secondary being even more crappy might not be as big of a factor.

Another interesting factor to note: instead of the Lions trying to break a 19-year-old losing streak at LLLLAAAAAMMMMMBOOOWWW FEEEEEEEEEELLLD, they'll be playing at home, in front of a sellout crowd, on national TV, in the Lions’ annual showcase game.  I don’t think this will matter anywhere near as much as Stafford/Culpepper, or Megatron/no Megatron, but the Lions have been much “better” at home than on the road. 

Scott Linehan vs. Dom Capers

	Lin	Capers	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
2004	MIN	HOU	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	21st	19.3	6.89	3.92	34	7.92	0	4.69	3-8
2008	STL	MIA	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	21st	21.6	6.61	2.35	12	4.26	3	4.30	0-0
2009	DET	GBP	24th	18.1	5.60	3.91	12th	20.3	6.17	4.46	0	4.20	3	4.33	5-34

Okay, the last time we did this, I concluded:

Scott Linehan's balanced, conventional offense is disproportionately successful against an aggressive, blitzing 3-4. This will be the third such defense that the Lions face, and they've outperformed averages against the two prior units. If Kevin Smith is his usual, steady self, and Matt Stafford is able to play, I expect the Lions to score between 24-28 points.

This is why I started breaking the analysis out from the "influencing factors"!  There was a monstrous whopper of an “if” in there, and I utterly failed to account for it.  Still, I don’t think anyone would have predicted how poorly Daunte Culpepper would play.  4.20 yards per attempt?  That’s criminally bad.  For what it’s worth, the Lions did rush for a very respectable 4.20 YpC.

It’s almost impossible to tell what’s going to happen here.  Given the Culpepper/Stanton in-and-out, no Megatron, and the immediate TD/turnover/TD sequence putting the Lions on their heels two minutes in, I’m not going to attribute the shutout earlier this year to scheme-on-scheme interaction.  That leaves us with the earlier conclusion, that Linehan’s offenses are unusually good against blitzing 3-4s, especially when the running game is working well.

Unfortunately, given the loss of Stephen Peterman, I don’t see Kevin Smith rushing any better than he did the first time around.  If the Lions, as probable, are playing from behind early again, a rushing attack averaging 4.2 yards a carry is not going to force the Packers to adjust to stop it.

I have to project this based on the assumptions that Daunte Culpepper and Bryant Johnson will be starting in the stead of the newly-christened avatar of the Lions franchise and, arguably, the most dangerous downfield threat in football.  Given the way the Packers defense has been playing (12-ranked scoring defense!), this is an insurmountable challenge.

Even accounting for the systemic advantage I still believe a fully realized Linehan offense has against a Capers-style 3-4, the Lions should meet, or slightly underperform, their season averages: 14-17 points, 5.25-5.50 YpA, and 3.85-4.15 YpC.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Yeesh, this Linehan/Capers section has been almost all “influences” already, but here we go.  Obviously, Matthew Stafford is now THE QUARTERBACK, and losing him is a great loss indeed.  Megatron is the only weapon that defenses respect, and losing him is an even bigger loss.  However, last Sunday, the Packers have lost both their top corner, Al Harris, and their top pass rusher, Aaron Kampman, for the rest of the season.

While I’m not exactly salivating over the Charles Woodson-versus-Bryant Johnson matchup, the Lions’ remaining wideouts should have much better looks than they did the first time around.   Moreover, as miscast as Kampman has been this season, he’s still a naturally gifted pass rusher, and losing him partially de-fangs a defense whose bite has been much worse than its bark this season.

Unfortunately, for the second week in a row, we find the Watchtower’s view obfuscated.  This offense without a healthy Stafford and Megatron simply isn’t the same offense—and while it’s only on the low end of mediocre with them, it’s absolutely wretched without them.  Let’s be real, here, folks: if both Stafford and Megatron can’t go, this is going to be another bloodbath, regardless of who is out on the other side, or what logo is at midfield.  It kills me to say it, but unless the young binary stars of this franchise take the field on Turkey Day, the national audience is going to get treated to yet another Thanksgiving fiasco.

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three cups deep: eating crow

Today I eat a foul meal, indeed.  After looking over the data, seeing a decisive systemic advantage for our Gridiron Heroes, and hearing that Matt Stafford took part in Wednesday practices, I bravely predicted a victory over the Packers.  I don’t think I need to describe the agony that Sunday’s results inspired--Neil over at Armchair Linebacker already sauced my crow plate with his own, unfailingly lyrical, take.

Adding insult to injury, I posted yesterday that I'd be Tweeting throughout the game--then either Twitter, or every Twitter client I could get my hands on, went down.  I also ran a quick pre-game errand that ended up not being quick at all, and so I listened to most of the first half on the radio.

There's something about following a game on the radio or internet that makes a blowout loss much worse.  Without the ability to see what's happening, to understand why, you really feel like the Football Gods are simply smiting you:

Daunte Culpepper drops back to pass . . .

Please don't be intercepted please don't be intercepted please don't be intercepted please don't be intercepted please don't be intercepted

. . . and it's picked off! He threw it RIGHT TO Cullen Jenkins!

DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!  DAMN!

It’s infuriating.  It’s nauseating.  It’s even emasculating--like your strength and pride as a fan is being taken from you, and there’s nothing you can do about it.

The Packers' emasculation of the Lions was swift and surgical, indeed.  Rogers exploited the Lions’ horrific secondary for an opening-drive bomb, Culpepper threw a horrific pick with his first pass attempt, the Pack cashed in, and the game was over with 7:25 left in the first quarter.  The numbers will show the Packers didn't play a very good game--13 penalties for 130 yards!—yet, the Lions were absolutely powerless to keep pace.

After the initial salvo, the Lions' D actually stiffened up.  The Lions had three offensive possessions in between the second TD and the Packers' next score, a Crosby FG.  If they'd turned those three possessions into just 10 points, we are talking about a COMPLETELY different ballgame.  Of course, they didn't, and so we are talking about a vicious loss that "feels" even worse than it looked--and it looked bad.  On Twitter, I called it the Lions' second "GPS Game" and, well, now we know exactly where the Lions are.

Well . . . we know where they're at without Matt Stafford.  Without Calvin Johnson.  Without Sammie Hill, DeWayne White, Jason Hunter, or Ko Simpson.  Isn't it interesting that already, these players are the difference between competitiveness and 2008-level play?  Stafford is already an immediate upgrade over Culpepper; there can be no debate about that now. Megatron we know is Megatron, and White's been solid when healthy, but Sammie Hill?  Jason Hunter?  Ko Simpson?  A fourth rounder from an NAIA school, a street free agent, and a guy who would have been cut if not traded for; they're already major contributors, missed dearly when they're gone.  It brings home exactly how bankrupt the Lions' roster was when Mayhew took over.

One phrase I've heard quite frequently this season from Lions fans, bloggers, and reporters: "I know there are no moral victories, but . . . ", with the "but" preceding, you know, why this past loss was a moral victory.  There is nothing like that here.  This was a brutal, punishing, vicious, demeaning defeat.  It stopped the momentum from the Steelers game dead.  It sheared the the little green rosebuds off the black and thorny stems of seasons past.

. . . and now, nothing.  Bleakness, emptiness; a bye.  As snow, probably, begins to fall outside our windows on Sunday, this loss will simmer, stew, marinate.  There's nothing to look forward to: no early previews of the upcoming opponent, no breathless injury report updates, not even "so-and-so looked good during jogging today".  No, my crow will be slowly braised, for two weeks, in a bitter broth of injuries, ineffectiveness, turnovers, and defeat.

Ugh.  After that, there's no way I can suck down a third cup of office sludge. I'm going out for espresso.

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three cups deep: apple turnovers

On Saturday, Clan TLIW went to an apple orchard with several other families and friends.  It’s always a big event; we mark our calendars months ahead for the still-warm pumpkin donuts and fresh-pressed hot apple cider.  Whether it’s so warm we need to cool off with cider slushies, or--like Saturday--cold enough to demand jackets on top of sweatshirts, the weather’s always great.

There really isn’t anything quite like picking apples right off the stem: fresh, juicy, delicious, crisp, waxless.  There’s nothing like biting into an apple that was part of a tree three seconds ago, the juice running down your chin--and seeing dozens more apples on that tree, dozens of trees in that row, and knowing there are many more rows in the orchard.  Unlike at the supermarket, where apples are pretty much apples, the wildly different flavors of the various varieties–sweet, tart, spicy, sour, savory, tangy--hit you in the mouth like a blitzing linebacker.

What? Oh yeah:

Daniel Mears / The Detroit News

Sunday, we saw Daunte being Daunte: 282 yards passing, a 32-yard scramble, a beautiful drive and TD pass that turned a rout-in-the-making into a close, winnable game . . . and three fumbles, the ugliest interception I've ever seen, and seven sacks.  Three of those, as you all know, came just after the two-minute warning--when the Lions had 1st-and-10, deep in the Steelers' side of the field, down 20-28, and just 21 yards away from taking the reigning world champions to overtime.  Then, as Mitch Albom said, “Sack.  Sack.  Sack.”

When I say that Daunte isn't a winning quarterback, this is what I'm talking about.  When I say that he compiles decent stats, but loses games with his at-the-worst time mistakes, this is what I’m talking about.  When I say that he's the opposite of clutch, this is what I'm talking about.

In a sad, wierd, twisted sort of way, this was the best we could have hoped for.  The defense, who I'd dismissed as having no chance at keeping the Steelers under 30, did so. Will James, a player I’d often pigeonholed as a scrub, had a beautiful pick-six--the only Lions TD in the first three quarters; it kept the game a game. The running game wasn't exactly working, per se, but the Lions staff neither abandoned it completely, nor stuck with it longer than was useful. Third down efficiency was a stunning 11-of-18 (61%)--especially stunning when you realize how many of those were 3rd-and-7, 3rd-and-8, -11, -16, etc.

It was also the best we could have hoped for in terms of the quarterback situation. Daunte proved himself a worthwhile backup—and indeed, exactly that.  Anyone who is claiming that Daunte "gives us a better chance to win" than Matt Stafford going forward is safely ignorable on all Lions-related (and probably football-related) subjects going forward.  While Stafford may or may not have made a few of the plays that Daunte did, he never would have done this, and he probably would have noticed, you know, all of those angry Steelers coming to kill him.

Stafford, for his part, was the emergency quarterback on Sunday—per NFL rules, he could have come in in the fourth quarter if he was healthy enough to go.  However, coming in cold, having taken so few reps in practice, wouldn’t have been putting Stafford in a position to win.  Tom Kowalski has suggested that if the Lions coaches think Daunte can play well enough to not make the Lions lose next week, they’d rather sit Stafford and bring him back after the bye—fully healed, and facing the tender underbelly of the Lions’ schedule.

This is sort for the best of both worlds for the Lions: they get a confidence boost from hosting the world champs and taking them down to the final minute.  They'll go to Lambeau, probably play the Packers tough--and maybe even win.  Then, after a week of rest, and with a little luck, the franchise quarterback comes back just in time to administer the first real live tail whoopin' seen ‘round here in a long, long time.

My wife was kind enough to bring me an apple at work--a Spygold, if memory serves. I can tell you with absolute certainty that it's clean, midly tart flavor and crisp, juicy texture goes horribly with my third cup of coffee.

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Oh for crying out loud

I spend all morning writing up a post and then two minutes after I publish, Jim Schwartz announces that Matthew Stafford is the starting quarterback from here on out.

Yes, yes, yes, yes yes.  He is the franchise, he is the future, he's the best quarterback we have, and he's ready.  It's time.  Let's start the New Lions off on the right foot--and let's give the cornerstone of the franchise all the time he needs to get ready.  He's not going to learn anything watching Daunte Culpepper throwing four-yard dumps to the fullback on 3rd-and-7, and he's already figured out how to play pitch-and-catch with Megatron.  

He'll take his lumps, and so will the Lions--but *** NEWS FLASH *** they were going to anyway.  There are no expectations this season, no shot at anything more than 17 more months of "preseason" for this squad.  He'll learn from his mistakes, just as Manning did from his, and the Lions will be better off for it.

Matthew?  Give 'em hell, man; give 'em hell.

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if it sounds too good to be true . . .

Less than a week ago, Lions fans were practically floating.  After years of not having a single decent quarterback, it appeared that the Lions suddenly had three.  Daunte Culpepper was flashing a little of his old speed and a lot of veteran savvy, Matthew Stafford was proving to be every bit the golden boy, and Drew Stanton was showing he can make plays and win games. The Lions, for arguably the first time ever, had three legitimate and/or promising NFL quarterbacks on the roster.

Then Monday happened. Word came down that Daunte Culpepper had torn the webbing between two toes by stubbing it on a carpet; Lions fans everywhere started kicking their rugs, trying to figure out how on Earth Daunte ended up needing eight stitches. Worse yet was the news that Drew Stanton's knee--not that knee, the other knee--had swollen, and he was flying to Alabama to be seen by orthopedic surgeon extraordinaire, Dr. James Andrews.

With Matthew Stafford suddenly the only healthy quarterback on the roster, the Lions signed veteran QB Brooks Bollinger. Bollinger was one of three "short list" quarterbacks the Lions brought in for workouts at the beginning of camp, along with Cleo Lemon, now with the Ravens, and Craig Nall. Clearly, Bollinger would give the Lions an emergency option while Dr. Andrews went to work on Stanton's injury.

Then, the Lions claimed recently-released-by-the-Patriots QB Kevin O'Connell on waivers, smearing mounds of mud on the Lions' crystal-clear quarterback picture. What are we to make of this mess?

We can start with the assumption that the Lions plan to keep Drew around; flying him down to the world's greatest sports injury doctor for an examination and 'scope is no small investment. It's how you treat a valued piece of the puzzle, not a guy who'll be handing in his playbook sometime soon. We also know that Matthew Stafford is the future of the franchise. That, however, is about all we know for sure.

Daunte Culpepper has played well in the preseason, showing some of his old elusiveness. He also showed, perhaps for the first time in his career, a conservative, thoughtful, veteran's approach to decision-making. He seems to be making all of his reads, and heavily using the runningbacks as safety valves when nothing is open. Shockingly, I find myself criticizing him for dumping it off TOO often; for the first time ever, Daunte has been gunshy with the downfield pass. However, he is certainly playing like a decent NFL quarterback, one who will at least be a net positive rather than a net negative at the position.

However, that's about as far as it goes with him . . . he is most definitely a stand-in, a straw man, a tackling dummy; there to get the Lions by until Stafford is ready. Moreover, Daunte's entire contract is set up so that if the Lions can wash their hands of him any time before Week 1. If the Lions plan to start Stafford Week 1, then there's really no point in keeping Daunte around; he won't be here next year either way--and to suggest he'd be an insurance policy for a playoff run is even more optimistic than I'm willing to be. So Daunte is the nominal starter, but the Lions could effortlessly trade or release him before the season. Remember that.

Brooks Bollinger is a former Wisconsin Badger, who was the Jets' 2003 sixth-rounder. After three years with the Jets, he spent two years with the Vikings, and has been staying employed here and there ever since. Stanton's likely to miss only a few weeks, and it doesn't seem possible that a team so desperate to impove their roster would carry two kickers and four quarterbacks into the regular season, Bollinger seems to know his window is small indeed.

Kevin O'Connell, a 2008 third-round pick who barely spent a full year with the Patriots, is still regarded as a talented prospect around the league; Quoth The Grandmaster:

"We've said all along that we're gonna look every way we can to improve the team. (O'Connell) was a guy that we had pretty good grades on coming out of college. He came available, we had a situation where we could take a look at him, so we're gonna do it."

So O'Connell is a kid the Lions are going to want to take a look at, just like they took looks at guys like Glenn Holt. He could make the final roster as a prospect for next season, or he could be out in the next round of cuts. So . . . scenarios:

• Culpepper starts Week 1, Stafford is the #2, Stanton is expected to miss just a few weeks. In this scenario, the Lions would have to choose between keeping O'Connell around for a few extra weeks, thoroughly evaluating him at the expense of keeping a Zack Follett, or rolling with two healthy QBs and hoping Nick Harris or Derrick Williams can hand it off reliably if called upon.
• Culpepper starts Week 1, Stafford is the #2, Stanton is going to miss 8+ weeks and is IR'd.  Now there's a roster spot for either Bollinger or O'Connell; my guess is that no matter how well Bollinger plays, it will depend on whether O'Connell flashes enough potential. If he does, it would set up a Stanton-O'Connell battle for the #2 job next season. If he doesn't, he'll be traded to one of the other teams that wanted him, and Bollinger will be kept on as the #3.
• Stafford starts Week 1, Culpepper is the #2, etc. This really doesn't change the battle for #3 much, except that Bollinger's chances would be practically nil; with Culpepper as the "veteran backup", #3 needs to be a developmental prospect (Stanton if healthy, O'Connell if not).
• Stafford starts Week 1, Stanton is the #2, Bollinger is the #3 NOW things get interesting. If Culpepper is traded or released, the Lions could simply promote Stanton as the #2, carry Bollinger into the season as the #3, and do with O'Connell as they will. Bollinger could hold down the fort as the #2 until Stanton is healthy, and then Stanton could relieve Stafford in spots, see garbage time, and maybe finish a game with some off-the-bench heroics in case of injury. Bollinger would provide a veteran hand in case of a (God forbid) long-term Stafford injury.

  So, while the Lions' quarterback situation is dramatically cloudier than it was a few days ago, the quick signing of Bollinger and the clever claim on O'Connell gives the Lions both insurance and leverage. Even if Stanton's okay, they cut Bollinger after the Buffalo game, and trade O'Connell for a sixth-rounder, it's all a net gain for the Lions. And if, again God forbid, Stanton's NOT okay, they'll have two different insurance policies. And if, in the admittedly unlikely scenario someone offers a third-rounder for Culpepper, the Lions have the flexibility to make that move, too. Soon, folks, you'll be able to resume floating.  

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Sifting through embers: offense vs. Atlanta

I'm aware that this is more than a little bit late. I've had the charting done for quite a while, but I'm playing with both the formatting and style in an attempt to wrest control of the fonts, sizes, etc. back from my template's CSS. However, I realized that I needed to get this bad boy out there before it loses all relevance--so let's get right to the good stuff:

FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L42	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap R	+7
Both WR are split left, TE right.  Loper pulls right; Peterman and Cherilus block left.  Raiola is responsible for filling the gap left by Loper, and while he's initially beaten, he pushes the DT just wide at the last second.  Smith seems to briefly look outside, but instead takes the intended path up the middle for a nice gain.  Loper, oddly, never ends up blocking anyone despite rambling well downfield.
L49	2-3	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap L	+4
Almost the same play, to the weak- instead of strong- side this time.  Peterman pulls left, Raiola seals off the tackle on the backside, Smith hits the hole hard.  Falcons do a better job of tackling at the second level--also no TE on this side.
F48	1-10	Offset I 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Short R (Smith)	+11
The offensive line gets great protection here.  Colbert is held downfield by Falcons CB Brent Grimes (called, declined), and Culpepper swings it out to Smith, who's wide open in the flat.  It hits him in stride, and he takes off for 11.
F37	1-10	Offset I 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap R?	+1
Felton motions to offset at the last second.  Loper again pulls right, Cherilus and Peterman block left. DE Babineaux overwhelms the TE (Heller?), pushing Smith inside. He dives for, and gets, Smith's ankles.
F36	2-9	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	inc (Williams), penalty	+7
The Falcons send the Sam and Mike between Peterman and Cherilus.  OL does a good job, and and Smith picks up one blitzer, but Felton helps Peterman on the DT instead of blocking the other.  Culpepper deftly sidesteps him, then lauches a gorgeous deep ball out the back of the end zone.  Williams had a step on his man.  Harry Douglas is called for holding, +5 yards and a first down.
F30	1-10	Single 2-TE	Base 4-3	Run	Counter R	+1
This looks like a simple dive between Loper and Backus--but both TEs are lined up to the right.  After a step left, Smith counters to run behind the TEs. OLB Mike Peterson ushers Gronkowski past him like a matador, then stuffs Avieon Cason.  Why Caseon?  WHY?
F29	2-9	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	+3
Falcons again blitz two.  Good initial pickup.  Culpepper looks right, scans left, seems to look deep left, then MLB Curtis Lofton takes Felton to the ground right next to him.  No threat since Lofton fell down, too, but he clearly didn't see much.  Looking very quick, he tucks an runs for the sideline.
F27	3-7	Single 3-WR? (gun)	Base 4-3	Pass	Screen R (Smith)	+16
Guessing this is a 3-WR look, but can only find 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB on this 720p feed.  Even if they only had ten out there, the play works.  The Falcons pick a bad time to send everyone; Smith slips behind the rush and 'Pepper flips it to him.  Smith turns upfield with an escort (Raiola), whose inability to destroy the safety is the only thing that prevents a TD.  Smith out.
F11	1-10	Single 3-WR	Base Nickel	Run	Dive Left	+1
Simple dive, looks to be intended to go left.  John Abraham vs. Will Heller's a mismatch; Abraham pushes Heller back into Cason's path.  Cason bounces off Heller, and by the time he recovers, Babineaux gets off of Gosder and brings Cason down.  A waste of a GREAT push up front by the guards; lots of daylight.
F10	2-9	Single 3-WR	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble (play action)	+7
There's a play action; the OL does an iffy job of selling it.  Loper pulls right while Cherilus and Peterman block down, but Backus is clearly ready to pass block--not very well, as Abraham pushes him back pretty far.  Loper holds Babineaux off, but Daunte tucks and runs--before any of the routes develop.  Cpep nearly scores.
F2	3-2	Offset I-Form 3 TE	Goal line	Pass	Sack (play action)	-7
Cripes.  The Lions call a play action, but DT Thomas Johnson happens to crash a gap in between Raiola and Loper, who are downblocking left to sell the run, when Culpepper is about to fake and roll right.  That works on the 20 but not on the 2; you have to know the DTs are going to bullrush here. Johnson blasts through the line and manages to snag Culpepper's ankles.  Loss of seven.
F10	4-9	Field Goal			Field Goal
First drive: 12 plays, 48 yards, Field Goal, Lions 3-0.  Great field position, great drive, miserable to get just three here.  I blame Linehan's playcall as much as any of the players for their execution.
L30	1-10	Single 3-WR	Base Nickel	Run	Trap? R	+4
Lions do a good job of showing pass against the nickel.  Peterman pulls right while the TE and Cherilus block left.  DE Chauncey Davis gets good penetration, forcing Cason to take a step outside and then cut back in.  Peterman drills his man downfield, and Cason picks up an easy four-ish yards.
Hey, did you know Michael Turner is good, and the Falcons beat the Lions last year?  Just checking, because NFLN wants to make sure you didn't forget.
L34	2-6	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Dive R	+4
I can't tell which gap this was intended for, because DE Chauncey Davis splits Peterman and Cherilus and disrupts the run.  DT Peria Jerry is blown several yards back by Raiola, but Raiola releases and goes to the next level; Jerry is free to trip Cason up.  I think the move to avoid Davis disrupted the timing here.
L38	3-2	Offset I 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Short M (Felton)	+6
Colbert motions inside, next to Heller. At the snap, they cross, and Heller goes deep while Colbert runs a drag across the middle.  Felton runs a quick curl, and Cason flares out to the flat.  Good protection.  Culpepper hits Felton for the first down; end of first quarter.
L45	1-10	?	?	Run	?	+4
TV feed came back after a Cason 4-yard run had just finished.  Thanks.
L49	2-6	Single 2 TE	Base 4-3	Pass	Short R (PA, Colbert)	inc.
Falcons show blitz with Sam and Mike, then blitz Mike and Will.  Interior linemen to a great job of picking it up, partly thanks to max protect on outside.  After half-hearted play action, Culpepper throws to Colbert, high and over wrong shoulder.  Easily defended by Grimes.
L49	3-6	2 RB 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble	+1
Falcons do a delayed blitz with both 'backers.  Abraham beats Backus inside; while Backus reengages and pushes him wide, Culpepper tucks and runs.  Iffy blocking upfield keeps him from converting.  IMO he had the time and target pull the trigger if he was willing to get hit; starting to think he's got happy feet.
Second drive: 6 plays, 21 yards, Punt.  Falcons blitzing more; protection inconsistent.  Culpepper looks fast, but is either dumping off or scrambing on every play.  Could be chalked up to the scout-team WR corps not getting open.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L34	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap R	-1
Falcons twos in on D.  Loper pulls right, fullback goes right, Cason runs up the middle, into the teeth of a stunt.  The DE coming inside stuffs him, then wraps and drags him down.
L33	2-11	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Short M (T. Smith)	+3
No blitz, great protection; Culpepper has all day.  He zips through all his reads and hits Terelle Smith for 3 yards.  Cute.  Oh, generous spot, make it four.
L21	3-23	2 RB 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Short M (Somebody)	+4
TONY GONZALEZ IS SO INTERESTING!  Lions were apparently flagged at some point for something.  It's now third and 23; Culpepper dumps it off to the somebody for a few.  Thanks, Duante.
Third drive: 3 plays, -13 yards.  Ankle-biting is not going to get us anywhere against the Falcons.  Sooner or later, the Lions will have to score.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L31	1-10	Single 2 TE	Base 4-3	Pass	Deep L (Colbert)	inc.
Stafford in at QB.  Max protect keeps Stafford clean.  He has Keary Colbert open at midfield . . . Off Colbert's hands.  Incomplete.
L31	2-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	timeout
Stafford doesn't like what he sees; calls time at the line.  Let's try this again.
L31	2-10	Single 4 WR (gun)	Base Dime (?)	Pass	Middle L (Williams)
It's tough to tell alignments for sure thanks to the inset interview with Stafford, but he hits Derrick Williams on a quick in route; Williams turns it up for the first.
L41	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Off-tackle (Cason)	+1
Raiola blows his guy, DT Trey Lewis, several yards back, but then Lewis releases and runs over to make the play.  Loper got stood up a bit, forcing Cason to adjust; that may have slowed him just enough for Lewis.
L42	2-9	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Screen-ish R (Cason)	+5
What looks like a basic dropback ends up looking like a screen, as the Falcons blitz two, and Stafford lofts one over the rush to Cason.  Cason just needs to beat the CB for a big gain; the corner wraps through Cason's stiff arm & brings him down.
L47	3-4	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Short M (Colbert)	inc.
TE goes out, RB stays in to block.  No blitz.  Backus is beaten to the outside, but Stafford already found Colbert across the middle.  Stafford steps up and fires--it hits Colbert in the hands and he stone cold dirty drops it.  CRUCIAL.  Ugh.
Fourth drive: 6 plays, 22 yards, Punt.  Stafford flashing both a gun and some touch on his first drive; Colbert had two critical and infuriating drops.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L15	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Naked Bootleg (Heller)	+3
Very well-executed naked bootleg.  The line convincingly run-blocks left, Cason and Stafford sell the play-action, and then Stafford rolls right and hits Heller cleanly for a few.  Heller's hit by 2 Falcons simultaneously, but well done, Lions.
L18	2-8	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Deep R (Colbert)	+29
THERE we go.  This reminds me of some of the Georgia highlights.  From the gun, perfect protection, Stafford looks deep left and then resets deep right, hits Colbert in stride in between the corner and closing safety.  Colbert hangs on.
L47	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Trap R (Cason)	+8
Raiola pulls between Peterman and Cherilus and stuffs the run-blitzing Coy Wire.  Peterman seals the DT well, giving Cason a great seam.  Cason bursts ahead for 8.
F45	2-2	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Deep R (Colbert)	inc.
Similar to two downs ago, Stafford looks great here.  The OL again gives him a perfect pocket, and again he has Colbert wide open downfield.  Stafford ZIPS it, but it's slightly high and behind.  Stil, it's definitely catchable; Colbert makes a nice adjustment, but it hits him square in the hands and bounces off.  ROAR.  Falcons broadcast replays Backus neutralizing DE Kroy Biermann for some reason.
F45	3-2	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Pass	Deep R (Colbert)	inc.
Falcons flash blitz; Stafford audibles at the line. Not sure what he changes, but both DTs get double-teamed; Cason is left to block the DE solo.  Cason cuts him, and slows him down enough for Stafford to let it fly again.  Colbert might be able to 'make a play' to bring it down, but CB Chris Owens has great position.
Fifth drive: 5 plays, 30 yards.  Stafford looking very sharp with his reads and execution.  Colbert is absolutely killing him . . . and the Lions . . . and me.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L35	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Trap L (Brown)	0
Twos in on offense.  Line downblocks left; center & RT pull left.  RG releases to the second level, which is interesting, but the LG (Salaam) is driven backwards into the running lane.  Brown counters, spins out of a tackle, and then is swarmed at the original LoS.
L35	2-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Run	Draw R (Brown)	+4
Falcons do a little zone blitz here, showing blitz from the Sam, then he backs off and the Mike and nickel back come instead.  Fortunately it's a draw away from the blitz; Salaam pulls and helps Brown pick up solid yardage.
L39	3-6	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Int., TD (Gronkowski)	INT
. . . and this is the rookie part.  Falcons again show one blitz but run another, with the Sam coming, the Mike, Tony Gilbert, backing off, then Gilbert picking up the TE.  Off the play action, Stafford sees Gronkowski on an out route, but the previously-blitzing Gilbert reads Matt's eyes and breaks on the ball.  Pick six.  Ouch.
Sixth drive: 3 plays, 4 yards, INT-TD, 3-16 ATL.  Ow.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L20	1-10	Offset I 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Iso R (Brown)	+4
At the snap, the gap opens up between the RT and TE, but the fullback (Smith?) tries to a nonexistent gap between the RG and RT.  Brown veers left looking for daylight, finds none, but spins out of a tackle and fights for two more yards.
L24	2-6	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Middle L (Williams)	inc.
Great protection up front.  FB runs a flare to the right, Brown stays in to block.  Stafford looks right, then left, and fires to the sideline.  The reciever (#10? Not on roster) is locked up with the CB.  Either WR's route was disrupted, or Stafford leads him too much.  TV feed doesn't show it, but may have been (uncalled) PI.
L24	3-6	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Screen (Ervin)	+22
Offense sells the pass here very well, initial protection looks good, and Stafford "goes through his reads".  Suddenly all the Falcons "beat their man" at the same time, and Stafford floats one to Allen Irvin, in stride.  With a 3-man convoy, Irvin follows/sets up his blocking well, and bursts to the 46.  Great execution by the Lions.
L46	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	PEN	Penalty (False Start)	-5
False start, Derrick Williams.
L41	1-15	I-Form 3 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Rollout Deep R (Fowler)	+31
WR are split wide right, the weak side.  The line blocks right, and Stafford half-heartedly fakes the give to Ervin.  He rolls right; great protection.  He draws back and fires a rocket to Fowler on the 40.  Soft handed catch by Fowler; he hits and drags the CB for a few more.
F37	1-10	I-Form 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Reverse (Jennings)	+8
WR are split far right (ball on right hash, slot on left numbers).  RB seems a step deep; slot WR (Jennings) motions inside.  Before he sets again, ball is snapped, and he sprints backwards as Stafford fakes the handoff.  Jennings takes it, and bursts for 8.
F29	2-1	Offset I 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap R? (Ervin)	-1
RG pulls to the right, but the Falcons run blitz that gap.  Salaam forgets to block the adjacent DE (literally), and the DE comes unblocked.  The Falcons have done a good job of plugging the intended hole, but it doesn’t matter anyway; the DE gets there.
F30	2-2	Single Trips R	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	+6
Hard not to smile here.  No blitz; initial protection sets up well.  Nobody open.  Stafford steps up, still sees nothing, and takes off.  As the DTs release and try to grab him, he slips one, outruns the other, and finally ends up underneath 3 Falcons, grinning like an idiot and trying signal the first while flat on his back.  Awesome.
F26	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Deep R (Fowler)	inc.
Good play action.  Line blocks right, LG pulls.  Stafford sells the play action.  Good protection; he sets up and throws over a double-covered Fowler's head.
F26	2-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Deep L (Williams)	TD
Lions fake an Iso play to the right, with the fullback charging the right guard-tackle gap, and a good play fake.  Stafford sets up, looks to the left, quickly resets right, and fires.  The blitzing safety, who ran right past Salaam, drills Stafford a moment after release.  The pass is gorgeous, right over the shoulder of Williams, just out of reach of the lunging corner (who had great position), and is caught beautifully for a picture-perfect touchdown.  It is this play that I point to when talking about Stafford; in this one play he does everything an NFL quarterback is asked to do, at the speed he needs to do it, with flawless execution.  Perfect!
Seventh drive: 9 plays, 80 yards, TD Lions, 10-16.  Salaam looks wretched; he seems like he has no idea who he is supposed to block.  Other than him, protection was great on this drive.  Williams shows up for a bit, a big relief, and Stafford rebounds from that pick with a truly well-executed drive.  Very, very nice.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L20	1-10	Offset I 2 TE	Base 4-3	Run	Dive R (Irvin)	+2
Stanton in.  Dive play up the middle, Brown slides around looking for daylight, but there isnt any. 2-yard push up front by the OL, but nothing doing after that.
L22	2-8	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare R (Stanton)	+12
Stanton has plenty of time.  He looks over his first three options, and swings it over to Ervin, who does a great job of slipping the CBs tackle, and sprints to the 35.  Ridiculous fumble call quickly reversed.
L34	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Int
Initially an I-form set, Ervin motions out wide to make it a single-back (FB), 3 WR set.  No blitz, protection is good, coverage is good--too good.  Stanton fires into the slot, and an LB, Jamie Winborn was right there to jump the route.  Stanton gets a HUGE break when the Falcons are flagged for PI away from the play.  Terelle Smith picks up a personal foul, too, though, so the play is nullified.
L34	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Iso R (Brown)	+5
Lions go to the ground instead, and with a great lead block by Smith, Brown gains 5.
L39	2-5	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap R (Brown)	-1
Aaron Brown (I think?  They're rotating and spotting isn't always easy) on the trap; though the RG pulls to help clear the way, the Falcons run blitz overwhelms the line.  Nothing Brown can do.  Loss of what looks like two.
L37	3-5	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble	+9
Stanton drops back, doesn't see anything open.  Salaam cuts his man's legs (?), and the right guard is beaten inside.  Stanton sees a linebacker coming free and runs.  The center gets free and seals the linebacker off to the left, creating a nice running lane.  Stanton gets nine yards, and judiciously slides--something he's rarely done well.
L48	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Run	Trap R (Ervin)	+14
From the gun, Stanton gives to Ervin.  The pulling RG helps open a nice seam, and again Ervin shows great burst in zipping up the middle for a first down.  Manny Ramirez COMPLETELY manhandles Peria Jerry on this play.
F38	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Sweep R (Brown	+2
Center (Gerberry) pulls, but can't get to his man in time.  Brown has to bounce it back after trying to turn upwards, then makes a beeline for the sideline.  Once there, he turns it back up and gets a nice gain.
F32	2-4	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Iso R (Brown)	TD
Brown takes the handoff, fullback hits the gap between right guard and tackle.  The TE kicks his man out way wide, looks like there's some daylight--but Brown cuts left, hard, and explodes past the defense to the left sideline.  Catching the CB flat-footed, he races, untouched, to the end zone. Touchdown.
Eighth drive: 12 plays, 80 yards, TD.  17-23 Lions.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L26	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Draw M (Brown)	-3
Rookie DT Vance Walker explodes up the middle; Ramirez got overwhelmed after the initial attack.  Brown bounces off Walker and keeps fighting, but is swarmed.
L23	2-13	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	+27
Stanton does a little half-hearted play fake and looks downfield.  OL picks up the stunt on the right side, and Ervin stuffs the stunting DE on the left.  However, the stunting DT on the left pushes the guard near Stanton's blindside, and he takes off slicing through the D for a huge gain.  I'm not convinced the pressure was all that bad, but he made a better play running here than he would have throwing.
50	1-10	Single 2 TE	Base 4-3	Run	Dive R (Ervin)	+1
Ervin runs to the right, gets stuffed.
F49	2-9	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Off-tackle (Brown)	+5
Brown takes it right, and the OL gets great push.  He cuts back one gap and finds a seam.  Nice little gain on a long second down.
F42	3-3	Single 3 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Dive R (Brown)	0
Run to the right, nice job by the OL vs. the DL, but the MLB gets there before Brown can get through the hole.  No gain.  Punt.
Ninth drive: 5 plays, 16 yards.  The Lions were rolling up yards on the ground, 168 at this point.  Stanton making plays like a playmaker.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L20	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Naed Bootleg (Gronowsi)	+3
Nice play fake on the rollout by Stanton.  He hits Gronkowsi in stride, but Gronko bobbles it long enough for a defender to get there and prevent any YAC.
L24	2-6	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Dive (Brown)	-1
Simple run up the middle.  Nothing much came of it.
L25	3-7	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Penalty (Int. Grounding)
Drew intentinonally grounds it, trying to get away from the rush.  Bad plan.
Tenth drive: 3 plays, -5 yards.  Nothing much here; the penalty forces a 3-and-out.
L16	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Middle M (Boldin)	+9
Great protection; Stanton has all day.  Nobody's open downfield, so he hits Boldin underneath.  Decent pickup.
L25	2-1	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble	+5
Stafford has good protection up front, but again can't find anybody open.  Brown appears to be an option, but Stanton sees a linebacker closing, and opts to run for the sideline; he gets it (and the first down) easily.
L31	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Deep M (Smith?)	+34
No blitz; no pressure.  Stanton fakes the handoff (a play action draw?), then pulls back and fires down the right hash to Smith for a big gainer across midfield.  Quick read, great decision, decent (slightly behind) throw.
F35	1-10	2 RB 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Short R (Brown)	TD
Falcons send both LBs; Brown sorta helps the RT with the LE for a second, then releases into the empty flat.  Stanton has time, checks his deep options, then flips it to Brown just as the blitzers get free of their blocks.  The pass hits Brown in stride and he explodes upfield, putting a sick juken on CB Eric Brock, then getting a HUGE block from D.J. Boldin.  Brown races to the end zone and does a 10-even-from-the-Russian-judge roundoff-backflip.  Falcons homer announcer calls both the jawdropping play and the backflip with the same excitement as he would while calling me buying a gallon of milk. Touchdown.
Eleventh drive: 4 plays, 75 yards.  Superb blocking, both in the run game and pass protection. Stanton and Brown are both killing it.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L27	1-10	2 RB 3 WR (gun)	Base Dime (?)	Pass	Scramble, Short L (Holt)	+7
Drew drops back, a nice pocket sets up at first, but then the RE gets free.  He steps up, checks again, still no options, so he takes off for the sideline.  Halfway there, he sees Glenn Holt, pulls up, and fires. A little low, but Holt goes and gets it. Looks like five yards, they seem to spot it for seven, and the scorer says it's 2nd-and-2.  I'll take it.
L35	2-2	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble, Short R (Brown)	inc.
Another initial nice pocket, but again the RE starts to get push.  Stanton runs to his right, and throws at Brown's feet (?).  Not sure if this was a misfire or intentional.
L35	3-2	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Short R (Brown)	+
Good protection; Stanton whips through his reads and sees Brown all alone in the flat.  He swings it out to him, hits him in stride, and Brown gets out-of-bounds after a six-yard pickup.
L41	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	PEN	offsides	+5
Atlanta helps us out by jumping offsides.
L46	1-5	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Middle R (Boldin)	+7
Great dropback and pass; Drew drops, sets, and fires to Boldin in the slot.  Good throw and catch for the first down.
L47	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	spike		inc.
Spike to stop the clock.  Camera keeps cutting to Hanson, who's warming up.
F47	2-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Dime	Pass	Deep R (McMullen)	inc.
Lots of urgency here, only :45 left on the clock and no timeouts.  Drew drops back, has time, fires deep for McMullen; it's high and bounces off his hands.
F47	3-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble	+25
I can't tell if this is a planned run or not, but Drew drops back, bounces once, and then sprints between the tackles.  With nobody anywhere near the middle of the field but the umpire, Drew makes a beeline for the 30-yard line.  A good block from Boldin ensures his unimpeded travel into Field Goal Range, where he slides.
L32	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	spike		inc.
The Lions wait for the clock to hit :03 before spiking the ball to stop it.
L32	1-10	Field Goal				FG
Betting on Jason Hanson is always a smart bet.  Field Goal, Lions win 27-24.
Twelfth drive: 12 plays, 57 yards, FG.  Stanton bailed every time he felt pressure (and he was pretty sensitive).  Still, he absolutely made several great plays; you couldn't ask for anything more.  Lions come from behind, clutch up, and win.  YES.

So what have we learned? First, the speed and burst that Aaron Brown displayed throughout training camp and the open practice is for real; the kid is a legitimate playmaker. If Avieon Cason makes the team and he doesn't, it will be an egregious crime. I understand that he has a long way to go in terms of blitz pickup, blocking assignments, and the like--but he's absolutely got the potential be a real weapon.

Second, Daunte Culpepper has proven that he can execute the offense like a veteran. As much as I've relentlessly derided his knack for turning the ball over, he's exhibited calm, poise, and managed the game very well--perhaps too well; he's not throwing downfield, even when the situation demands it. Also, I know it wasn't all his fault, but guess who got sacked on 3rd-and-goal to turn a TD into a field goal? You guessed it.

That brings us to another point: Linehan seems to be focusing on selling the play action.  I noticed a lot of the passes were play action; moreover, I noticed that the Lions almost always blocked the play actions the same way they blocked actual running plays.  I know this is, to an extent, standard practice.  But in this game, the Lions were taking it to the extent of pulling guards the same way, and having the fullbacks and tailbacks hit the hole the same way as they did on the actual traps and isos they ran.  I’ve always thought that “doing the opposite”--running when the defense expects pass and vice versa—is one of the keys to offensive success, knowing that this is a point of emphasis for Linehan is encouraging.

Thirdly, I’ve said it plenty and I’ll say it again, Matt Stafford is at least a decent NFL quarterback.  He may or may not ever establish himself as an elite stud, but just with the things he did in this game, he proved that he belongs with the big boys—right now.  As a corollary, we were treated to some good old-fashioned Drew Stanton Gunslinging Clutch Gamership; the Lions won the game at least partly thanks to his playmaking skills.

Fourthly, if the offensive line is going to be much better this year, it won’t be because of the many veterans signed to be versatile backups.  Salaam was a total liability out there, and Jansen was unremarkable.  The Lions’ offensive linemen are going to have to improve mostly through, well, improvement.  However, a lot of the pressure on the OL can be relieved  through a combination of Linehan’s scheming, the quarterbacks’ decision-making speed, and Kevin Smith’s running ability.

Finally, I apologize again for the lateness of this SFE.  I’m trying to develop a more efficient system for doing the breakdowns, because I will be doing these throughout the regular season.  As my friend and regular commenter Jim said to me, “It’s the preseason for everybody.”  As always, I deeply appreciate your time and patience.

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