How the Lions’ front seven looks against Joe Thomas & Co. will be telling; the Browns completely neutralized the Packers’ pass rush.
As I said in the Fireside Chat, the difference between the Bengals’ and Browns’ offensive lines was breathtaking. Instead of relentless dominance, the Lions’ starters were merely effective, and Colt McCoy had time to make good decisions and get rid of the ball. Sometimes, only by a split-second—but that can be the difference between a sack and a six-yard completion for a first down.
If Stephen Peterman, Dom Raiola, and Rob Sims can’t open up any space for Jahvid Best tonight, that will also spell trouble.
“Trouble” with a capital T. Browns were getting into the backfield on nearly every running play, and Raiola’s second-level blocking was uncharacteristically bad. It doesn’t matter how quickly you get to the second level if the a linebacker can blow you up once you get there. Best was swarmed until they knocked him out of the game with an apparent concussion.
I’m hoping to see another two-great-drives-and-out performance from Matthew Stafford, then big doses of Drew Stanton and Zac Robinson.
Yes, this happened. Not quite as “great” as last week from Stafford, but no negatives and bountiful positives. It looks as though Stafford’s for real. Stanton, in my mind, clearly separated himself from Robinson (if he hadn’t by, you know, starting and winning real games for the Lions). He made some flat-out NFL throws Friday night, and looked dominant against the Browns’ threes—the clear mark of someone who belongs on the roster. We’ve yet to see any of those awful misfires he’s always had hidden in his ammunition, either; in my mind he’s making a solid bid for the long-term backup gig.
I want to see Jahvid Best run well inside and out, and then I’d like to see either Aaron Brown or Jerome Harrison make a resounding statement.
Eeeerrrgh. Best had no room inside, made a few nice plays in space, and went out with what looked like a mild concussion; the leopard has not changed his spots. Until he has holes to hit and hits them, this will remain a concern. Brown, Harrison, and Bell had a little more daylight to work with once it was two vs. twos or threes vs. threes, but still none look to challenge Maurice Morris for a backup spot. I’d like to see them replace Bell with someone else’s training camp cut.
The Lions can’t completely sell out contain on the running lanes to get to the passer.
I’ll be more concerned about the halftime score than the final tally. Word is the Browns will play their starters for most of, if not all of, the first half, and I want to see the Lions’ twos hold their own.
They didn’t. Now, it wasn’t awful and—as I said on the podcast—there were simply too many sloppy penalties, sloppy turnovers, and minor injuries to major players to get much worthwhile evaluation out of this game. For the most part, the stuff we knew was working (the quarterbacks, Burleson, the D-line) was working and the questions we had (run O, run D, pass coverage) remain questions.
The game was a mixed bag, with a mixed result. Going into an always-serious third preseason game against the Patriots . . . I’ve got mixed feelings.
Tonight’s Great Lakes Classic—the winner of whom will take home the lovely Edmund Fitzgerald Trophy you see above—will be markedly different from last week’s game. It will be in Cleveland rather than in the welcoming confines of Ford Field. The opponent will be similar—an Ohio-based team with a new quarterback and new offense—but many ways, wholly opposite. How will the results differ from last week’s blowout?
The Bengals are in the last gasp of the Marvin Lewis era. Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco and the rest of the crew that made Lewis look smart are gone, replaced with a lot of very young faces learning from first-time coordinators. The Lions’ defense made it clear that the Bengals far behind the eight-ball; this lockout-shortened offseason will have their rookie skill players and greenhorn coordinators playing catch-up all year long. It’s easy to see the Bengals’ yo-yo string breaking this year, and Cincy picking at the top of the draft in 2012—almost regardless of on-paper talent.
Yet, if the Bengals are like the 2008 Lions, primed for a breathtaking fall to Earth, the Browns more like the 2010 edition. They’re clearly moving in the right direction under a first-time head coach, Pat Shurmur. Under center will be a talented second-year quarterback in his first full season as the starter, Colt McCoy. Unlike the Bengals, the Browns (and especially McCoy) looked great in their first preseason game, beating the reigning World Champion Packers 27-17.
Curiously, the Browns and Bengals have opposite strengths. The Bengals’ defensive line looked like a scary matchup for what might be the Lions’ weakest unit right now. The Browns’ D-line isn’t nearly so scary, but their offensive line might be one of the best in the business. How the Lions’ front seven looks against Joe Thomas & Co. will be telling; the Browns completely neutralized the Packers’ pass rush. Likewise, if Stephen Peterman, Dom Raiola, and Rob Sims can’t open up any space for Jahvid Best tonight, that will also spell trouble. Leonard Davis just might get called in . . . .
At corner, Aaron Berry figures to get significant work; it’ll be a great chance for him to make his case for the nickel spot. Meanwhile, every Lion quarterback has to be drooling. The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers and Matt Flynn combined to go 17-of-26 for 200 yards, 2 TDs, and no picks. I’m hoping to see another two-great-drives-and-out performance from Matthew Stafford, then big doses of Drew Stanton and Zac Robinson. If Killer’s rumblings are on-target about Robinson pushing Stanton, the Lions should showcase both and trade one while the trading’s good.
The two biggest questions marks are the Lions’ rushing offense and rushing defense. I want to see Jahvid Best run well inside and out, and then I’d like to see either Aaron Brown or Jerome Harrison make a resounding statement. On defense, the Lions can’t completely sell out contain on the running lanes to get to the passer—especially if Peyton Hillis and/or Montario Hardesty are ready to play (either might or might not be). Meanwhile, a linebacker other than Justin Durant has to get through the trash and get to the hole a lot more quickly.
I’ll be more concerned about the halftime score than the final tally. Word is the Browns will play their starters for most of, if not all of, the first half, and I want to see the Lions’ twos hold their own. That having been said, I’d be just fine with the Edmund Fitzgerald’s bronze effigy sailing back to Detroit, too. Most of all though: I want to see no injuries.
LeShoure reminds me of another Lions running back, one who stood a very similar 6’-1”, 224: James Stewart. Stewart, like LeShoure, made a lot of hay between the tackles—and if Stewart lacked a certain je ne sais quoi in comparison, he probably hit a little bit harder. Both had excellent acceleration into “good” straight-line speed, both played faster than their reputation or clock times would suggest. Stewart, though, struggled mightily to stay healthy . . . let’s hope LeShoure doesn’t have that problem.
This morning Mikel Leshoure ruptured his Achilles tendon, ending his 2011 Lions campaign, maybe his career, definitely the Lions’ playoff chances for the next five years, and also every reason you had to ever be happy again. Or, you know, not.
The culture of hype surrounding the NFL draft, and NFL draft picks, leads us to believe that every rookie drafted in the first few rounds should make an immediate impact on the bottom line. That every team should be counting on its first few picks to step in and excel. That each and every talented rookie will blaze the trail to your teams’ glorious new era of dominance and winning. Only a handful of rookies achieve anything like this kind of instant success in any given year, yet we all go on believing it will happen with next season’s first hundred picks.
Mikel Leshoure was drafted to fill a need; the Lions will miss him. Here’s another paragraph from that scouting report:
Mikel LeShoure looks to be an excellent complement to Jahvid Best, much the way Stewart combined with Fred Taylor in Jacksonville. This isn’t a “thunder and lightning” situation, like Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne, or Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott. Some folks had LeShoure rated as their #1 workhorse back due to Ingram’s injury concerns; he and Best will doubtlessly find a mutually beneficial workload ratio. Together, they’ll spell each other, make each other more effective, and back each other up—the Lions’ offense shouldn’t ever be without a tailback that can keep defenses honest.
So, you want to know, who will the Lions add to fill that role? Nobody. Nobody else will fill that role. Anyone who can be 1b to Jahvid Best’s 1a is on another roster. There are “goal line backs” and “big backs” and used-up “veteran backs” with names you’ve heard of, but anyone who’s available right now likely won’t be as good as Maurice Morris, who grades out as a sightly-below-average heavy-rotation running back. The Lions had a need for Mikel Leshoure—that doesn’t mean they have a need for Clinton Portis.
After Best, Leshoure, and Morris, the Lions have tailback Aaron Brown, and fullbacks Jerome Felton, Matt Clapp, on the roster, as well as H-back Preston Dial. Those four guys were likely fighting for one, or possibly two spots—Leshoure going on IR means two, or possibly three, of those guys will be kept. This coaching staff seems to love Felton as a runner (when he isn’t fumbling), so he may be the “goal line back” going forward.
Part of building depth is understanding that you may have to use that depth. Though the lockout injury bug has struck the Lions’ “luxury pick” rookies hard, the starting 22 looks essentially the same: the pressure is on Ndamukong Suh, Jahvid Best, and Nate Burleson to succeed, just as it was last season—just because their rookie backups didn’t hit the ground running doesn’t mean the teams’ fortunes don’t still rest on their shoulders.
The Lions' season is not lost. What the Lions have lost is some breathing room, some, margin for error, and the lottery ticket stub that Young, Leshoure or Fairley each represent. Last year, they won the Mega Millions with Suh; don’t think that just because the Powerball didn’t bounce their way in 2011 that these kids won’t become productive Lions soon. And, just because Mikel will be “pressing the pause button,” as Jahvid Best said, don’t think that you need to hit “Eject” on your hopes. The Lions’ short-tem picture has not dimmed; they will still win more games than they lose.
Nick Fairley showed up to this morning’s practice in a walking boot, obviously unable to work. Confirmed by a Tweet from the Detroit News’ Chris McCosky, the previously-thought-to-be-minor injury became a possible stress fracture. To steal a meme from MGoBlog:
PANIC?
No, no panic. For starters, this is training camp—bumps and bruises happen. For seconds, this training camp comes after the longest absolutely-no-work layoff in modern NFL history. Normally, these guys have already gone through several sessions of “no contact” (but actually mostly full speed) OTAs, plus a full minicamp. The player-only workouts were just conditioning and 7-on-7 stuff; this is the first real football of 2011 and it’s already August. There were bound to be more nicks and dings than usual.
Here's the other thing: depth. Remember The Parable Of The One-Eyed Beggar? This is partly why the Lions have Corey Williams AND Ndamukong Suh AND Sammie Hill AND Nick Fairley AND Andre Fluellen: so that they can lose one or two of those guys for a while without much of a dropoff.
The flipside is that the Lions’ defensive line must keep rolling waves, so they’ll need Fairley back—but not the way they needed Ndamukong Suh last season. Suh played athousand snaps, nearly every single down the defense was on the field last season. Fairley was never going to carry that big of a load even if he showed up to camp in the best shape of his life, dominated every rep, and didn’t suffer so much as a paper cut. He’s an extremely talented player and he seems like a nice, fun-loving guy—but he doesn’t need to be an All-Pro for the Lions to have a good defense this year.
An interesting play developed during the first period of team work. The Lions' offense went to the line of scrimmage and center Dominic Raiola changed the call. Safety Louis Delmas sensed something and quickly changed the defensive call and shifted the defensive alignment. Seeing that, Raiola quickly reverted back to the original call and snapped the ball. It was a running play wide left and Jahvid Best broke it for a long gainer, bringing cheers from the crowd.
I love every single thing about that quote. I love that we see the value of Raiola: there are bigger centers who can run block better, but he improves the whole offense with his ability to read a defense and change the protection—or even the play. It’ll never show up on a stat sheet, or even in Pro Football Focus’s grades, but it Dominic Raiola brings a wealth of value to this team that that cannot be denied.
Second, I love that Louis Delmas is maturing. His groin healed from last season, allowing him to again play like “Da Missile” we saw in 2009—but he’s coming into his own as a complete safety now. He has the recognition skills and leadership ability to put the rest of the defense in position to succeed; he’s not just flying around putting shoulders into people.
Third, I love that Jahvid Best can still hit the home run. We didn’t see much of his “jets” after the first few games, but I believe he’s going to make a believer out of everyone this year. Delmas and Best were two guys who were supposed to be huge for the Lions last year, and they weren’t. If they can play at the level described above, they’ll improve the team just as much as Tulloch, Durant, or any of the offseason additions.
Since Pro Football Focus doesn’t normalize their quarterback data—and, of course, we knew the Lions’ quarterback picture for 2011—this will be the last position group I apply the Old Mother Hubbard treatment to. Without further ado, the chart:
The bright red line is Jamaal Charles, who tied with Adrian Peterson for the best “Run” grade (+23.0)—but Charles’s +3.4 blocking grade is 8th-best in the NFL, while All Day’s –6.8 blocking grade is tied for last place with Chris Johnson, so Charles is “in charge” of the running backs. The dark brick red line is Tim Hightower, whose –7.3 receiving grade was, by far, the worst handed out to any NFL back last year; it went unredeemed by his +0.6 run grade (in a year where the NFL average run grade was +2.5). The AVERAGE, the thick black line, was soundly positive (+3.14), meaning running back play as a whole seems to be better than it was in 2008 (PFF’s baseline season). Interesting.
Per my emerging standard, I’ve given the highest-graded Lions tailback, Maurice Morris, a nice Lions-y blue. His –0.9 overall grade is well below NFL starter average; he ranked 37th of 58 qualifying tailbacks. His ability to catch the ball is probably underrated; MoMo’s receiving grade was a healthy +1.8, 17th-best. His running was graded out at +0.7, below the league average of +2.5, and ranked just below the median (34th of 58).
Statistically, PFF credited Morris with 336 yards on 90 attempts, an average of 3.7 YpC. That’s almost half a yard less than the NFL average of 4.2; he ranked 45th-best out of 58. I was hoping we’d find out Morris was better-than average when it came to yards after contact, but that’s not the case either. He averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry; by itself that’s a well-below-average number. But, when you look at what percentage of his yards came after contact (62.2%) versus the NFL average (63.2%), he’s getting a typical portion of his gained yards after contact—he’s just not gaining that many yards.
I’ve spoken very highly of MauriceMorrisbefore—indeed, he’s the best, most consistent back the Lions have had throughout the Mayhew Era. Keep in mind, all this doom-and-gloom in the above paragraphs is relative to players with at least 25% of their teams’ snaps. MoMo is a creditable, slightly-below-average starter or above-average rotational/backup NFL tailback. However, he’s not a difference-maker, and it’s not good news that he ended the season as the Lions’ best-graded RB.
BOTTOM LINE: Maurice Morris is a creditable all-around NFL tailback, but he has neither the down-to-down productivity, nor the home-run ability, that the Lions need from their long-term starter. If he sticks around he’ll be a great insurance policy for the Lions’ two young runners. If not, the Lions may look for a similar veteran retread.
My policy in these Old Mother Hubbards is to only review players who I believe can be considered an asset going forward—that is, if they clearly don’t have a place on next year’s roster, there’s no point in assessing them as an . . . asset. Aaron Brown straddles this line. With an overall grade of –3.0 on just 80 snaps, he was technically the second-best-graded 2010 Lions running back not already released. However, his tantalizing speed still can’t be harnessed effectively, because he still makes so many mental mistakes.
BOTTOM LINE: I think the former sixth-rounder is on his last legs here in Detroit. I will be surprised if he makes the roster.
It kills me that Jahvid Best, the Lions’ second 2010 first-round draft pick, was the Lions’ lowest-graded tailback. It kills me even harder that his –6.0 overall grade was third-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Donald Brown and Tim Hightower. His –4.0 running grade was tied for second-worst with Correll Buckhalter; only Thomas Jones’ appalling –9.7 bails Best out from being tied for worst.
I think we’re all well aware of Jahvid’s painful double turf toe injuries; I think we’re also well aware of the Lions’ problems with run blocking. Jahvid did a lot of running into a behind-the-line-of-scrimmage pile; he didn’t get much chance to hit holes hard, like we saw him do in preseason, or rip off long chunks of yardage, like we saw him do in the first few games of the season. He finished with 3.3 yards per carry, 54.5% of which came after contact (1.8).
Towards the end of the season, Jahvid's productivity and grades perked back up. I got a chance to speak with Jahvid about it in between Week 14 and 15, and he told me it was as much, if not more, about overcoming the rookie wall, and being mentally ready to handle the grind of the NFL, as it was physical limitations. Even unable to rest his turf toes, he still turned in positive overall grades in three of the last five games, including a nice 1.2 against Miami (in just 22 snaps). He also failed to be penalized at all—and only fumbled once—with the NFL’s 24th-heaviest workload (573 snaps, NFL avg. 498).
BOTTOM LINE: Jahvid Best showed us plenty of his Jim-Schwartz-up-late-at-night-alone-watching-YouTube-highlight-reels ability in the preseason, in the opening two games, and a little in the last five games. He was clearly hampered by his turf toes, however, and had almost no daylight to work with throughout the middle of the season. Between him getting healthy and Stephen Peterman getting healthy, I expect Jahvid to return to his explosive form. Still, the two questions surrounding Jahvid Best's rookie campaign were, 1) can he stay healthy? and 2) can he handle being an NFL feature back? Unfortunately, Best’s first year points more toward the answers being “No,” and “No,” than “Yes,” and “Yes.”
SHOPPING LIST: Pre-draft, I would have suggested that the Lions would be okay with Best as the returning #1—with the caveat that the Lions would either have to be very comfortable with Maurice Morris seeing significant carries, or acquire a power back to help carry some of the between-the-tackles load. Now that the Lions have drafted Mikel Leshoure, I see Best as the 1a to Leshoure’s 1b—with health, workload, and opponent determining the week-to-week load. Morris would be a fine insurance policy, and has one year left on his contract. If he’s willing to be the third wheel, the Lions will be in very good shape at this position for 2011—and beyond.
"I believe I have accomplished everything I can at the college level and want to go after my dream: playing in the NFL.”
For millions, playing in the NFL is a dream they’ll never have the opportunity to pursue, because they weren’t born with the talent. Mikel LeShoure was born with talent, but little else—Mikel LeShoure was born in prison.
Mikel, and his mother Jacqueline “Jazz” Frasier-Jones, faced an almost impossible climb up life’s mountain. Post-release, Jazz battled drug and alcohol addictions (and prior drug convictions), and worked multiple jobs to provide for Mikel. Meanwhile, Mikel spent the earliest years of his life with his aunt and stepmother; his father was in sporadic contact, fighting drug demons and prison sentences of his own. All three persevered, though: his mother has stayed clean and sober for 15 years, father got a good job, got back in contact, and was present at Mikel’s draft announcement, and Mikel racked up 4,652 yards and 52 rushing touchdowns at Champaign Centennial High School.
That’s Champaign, as in Champaign, Illinois—and from the sound of it, Illinois head coach Ron Zook didn’t let LeShoure, a three-star RB recruit per both Scout.com and Rivals.com leave his backyard. Listed at 6’-0”, 220 pounds, LeShoure had offers from Iowa and Wisconsin, as well as Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, and Boston College. He was Rivals’ 28th-ranked running back, nationally, and Scout’s 52nd.
Mikel saw some platoon time right away his freshman year, and even started a game. However, he got into a fight with teammate Jeff Cumberland, now a TE with the Jets, and Cumberland broke LeShoure’s jaw. LeShoure spent six weeks on a liquid-only diet, and he realized he could stand to drop his freshman fifteen. In the layoff between his freshman and sophomore year, Mikel went from 237 back down to a very lean (4.8% body fat) 228. In car circles, there’s a classic quote from Lotus founder Colin Chapman: “If you want to add speed, add lightness,” and that’s exactly what LeShoure did.
"I'm bigger, stronger, faster — all of that," LeShoure said. "The main things were my diet and not going out and partying, handling it and being smart. I stayed in more, just hanging out with the family. It was pretty easy because the No. 1 thing I thought about was football season and what would make me better."
With his maturing mind, maturing frame, and returned explosion, LeShoure notched multiple hundred-yard games his sophomore year, culminating in a 184-yard explosion against Fresno State that got him Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors. He used his size, speed, and improved conditioning to wear down defenses; his second-half YpC was 7.6, and all five of his rushing TDs came after halftime. He was named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten.
In his junior year, Mikel LeShoure blew everything up. I’ll just quote the official bio:
AWARDS & HONORS • College Football Performance Awards Running Back of the Year (2010) • Second-team All-American by the Associated Press (2010) • Third-team All-American by Rivals.com and Phil Steele (2010) • Honorable mention All-American by SI.com and Pro Football Weekly (2010) • First-team All-Big Ten by both coaches and media (2010) • 2010 Texas Bowl MVP • 2010 Team MVP and Most Outstanding Offensive Back
RECORDS • Illinois season rushing yards (1,697) • Illinois season points scored (122) • Illinois season total touchdowns (20) and rushing touchdowns (17 - tied with Rashard Mendenhall) • Illinois season 100-yard rushing games (9) and consecutive 100-yard rushing games (5) • Illinois single-game rushing yards - 330 vs. Northwestern at Wrigley Field, 11/20/10 • Finished sixth on the UI career rushing list (2,557) and second in school history in all-purpose yards (1,893)
Got all that? Mikel LeShoure was one of the best running backs in the nation in 2010, with some truly astounding numbers and performances. Of course, Michigan fans remember LeShoure’s five-touchdown game against them, but Mikel’s real masterwork was the Northwestern game at Wrigley Field, where he carried the ball a whopping thirteen times at a staggering 10.0 YpC clip, for a crushing 330 yards and two touchdowns. He was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, Walter Camp Foundation National Player of the Week, Rivals.com National Player of the Week and College Football Performance National Performer of the Week for that magnum opus.
Positives: Great size, very strong build... Plays faster on tape than timed speed... Does a great job holding the football close to his body... Very quick feet, reaches his top speed almost immediately which makes him a big play threat... Gets his first 15-20 yards in a hurry, tough to contain... Runs through tackles, does a great job getting through trash and running between the tackles... Keeps his legs moving at all times, very hard to slow down... Runs with low pad level, delivers hits rather than absorb them... Great vision, waits for his blockers... Soft hands, is growing to be a capable receiver out of the backfield... Put up big numbers against tough Big 10 defenses, had only one game this year with less than 75 rushing yards... One of the few backs in this class that has the potential to be a true workhorse.
Negatives: Really has only had one great season thus far... Often tries to break the big play rather than settle for a short gain, is prone to some negative yardage plays... Broke his jaw in 2008 after an altercation with a teammate at Illinois... Conditioning was a concern in the past... Takes most of his handoffs out of the shotgun in Illinois' spread option offense... Ran poorly at combine.
Inside running: Powerful back, gets behind his pads when running inside. Runs with lean, and has a small strike zone for which opponents to get a square hit. Good vision to cut away from traffic, very smooth in his cuts. Keeps legs moving after initial contact. Can jump over piles near the line. If the line provides a big hole, he has an elite burst to hit second level at full speed. Excellent ball security, keeps it high and tight. Must avoid stopping to run outside when defenders penetrate, instead taking the couple of yards behind his line. Usually uses his fullback when in the I-formation, but must trust him in short yardage situations. Sells fake handoffs.
Outside running: Thick upper- and lower-body build but he has the vision and quick feet to bounce outside as if he were a smaller back. Exceptional burst makes him capable of turning the corner to break off chunks of yardage. Has patience and vision to take a pitch and find a cutback lane and explode through it. Keeps his pad level low outside, which combined with a low center of gravity and strong legs, make him tough to tackle. Not afraid to push a pile or carry a defender a few yards after initial contact. Does not go out of bounds right away, willing to lower a shoulder to get a couple of extra yards.
Compares to: Ryan Mathews, Chargers -- Mathews had a stellar junior season but didn't stand out in San Diego, battling ankle problems until late in the season. Leshoure has the same combination of open-field burst and power, with a chance to be an impact rookie.
I don't know if I'm taking crazy pills or just not a subscriber or what, but SI.com apparently only lists "negatives" this year. They graded him at 2.82, "FIRST-YEAR CONTRIBUTOR," though:
Negatives: Loses a lot of momentum when he must quickly change direction. Not a creative ball carrier. Does not consistently run with an aggressive style. Effective when he gives effort blocking yet not consistent in that area. Cannot run to daylight in the open field. Has an upright running style that leads to a lot of heavy hits.
Positives: Looks every bit the part with a chiseled, NFL physique with little body fat. Sturdy runner equipped to make a living between the tackles. Quick-footed and shifty and shows some shimmy in the hole. Can get to and through the second level. Barrels through contact. Can handle a heavy workload and responds to a lather. Soft hands. Physical cut blocker. Outstanding production — paced Big Ten running backs his final two seasons with 6.4 yards per rush. Has a 38-inch vertical jump.
Negatives: Inconsistent down-to-down compete level. Does not attack holes, and too much of his production is blocked for him — was barely touched on long gains in career-best 330-yard performance against Northwestern. Is tight in the hips. Lacks extra gear to break away and play speed is not exceptional. Average vision and run instincts — the game does not come natural to him. Does not run angry and is not as powerful or as punishing as he could be.
Summary: A downhill runner who looks every bit the part, Leshoure carried the offense and flashes starter-caliber ability, though he could require time to acclimate to a complementary big-back role and handle the physicality of the NFL game. Sheer size and bellcow potential will appeal most to physical, ground-oriented attacks such as that of the Dolphins, Steelers, Jets, Titans or Lions.
But what do “the experts” really know? We have indisputable, infallible, visual evidence—the one and only prognosticator of future NFL success: YOUTUBE HIGHLIGHT REELS!!
FIrst, the highlights of that incredible day against Northwestern:
Next, we have some Illinois offense-only "every snap" videos; first the aforementioned Michigan game, and then the 2010 Texas Bowl vs. Baylor (the pic above is LeShoure accepting the Texas Bowl MVP trophy). Lots of non-LeShoure snaps, of course, but you’re getting the lumps along with the good stuff, here, too:
Finally, a true and proper YouTube highlight reel, complete with hype music:
LeShoure reminds me of another Lions running back, one who stood a very similar 6’-1”, 224: James Stewart. Stewart, like LeShoure, made a lot of hay between the tackles—and if Stewart lacked a certain je ne sais quoi in comparison, he probably hit a little bit harder. Both had excellent acceleration into “good” straight-line speed, both played faster than their reputation or clock times would suggest. Stewart, though, struggled mightily to stay healthy . . . let’s hope LeShoure doesn’t have that problem.
LeShoure has wonderful stop/start for a man his size, and you see it deployed to his advantage many times up above. He also has nicely fluid legs that let him redirect and cut while keeping his shoulders square and his upper body quiet. He appears to have nice hands, but for some reason wasn’t used much in the passing game—and I don’t think he’ll be thrown to much here, either.
His vision seems to be okay, but not as prescient as Best’s; he doesn’t have that Sandersesque “I’m cutting this way and setting my shoulders that way, thereby juking the guy in front of me and freezing the guy behind him” way of seeing the field. Sometimes he seems to go for the home run when he just needs to get four, and sometimes, he plows ahead when there was another lane open. Remember, he only started one full season; he has a lot of learning left to do. Further, unlike Kevin Smith, Mikel Leshoure has a lot of tread left on his tires—extremely important for a mostly-between-the-tackles back.
In short, Mikel LeShoure looks to be an excellent complement to Jahvid Best, much the way Stewart combined with Fred Taylor in Jacksonville. This isn’t a “thunder and lightning” situation, like Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne, or Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott. Some folks had LeShoure rated as their #1 workhorse back due to Ingram’s injury concerns; he and Best will doubtlessly find a mutually beneficial workload ratio. Together, they’ll spell each other, make each other more effective, and back each other up—the Lions’ offense shouldn’t ever be without a tailback that can keep defenses honest.
Researching this piece has me deep in thought about the power of the NFL, the power of people’s dreams, and the incredible diversity of paths these young men take to achieve glory. The truth is, whether you were born in a correctional facility, or grew up down the street from Bobby Layne’s house in an exclusive suburb, it takes incredible dedication, hard work, perseverance—and still, even, a little luck—to make it to the NFL. For most of these rookies, the hard part is just beginning . . . but for Mikel Leshoure, I bet, even two-a-days will still feel like a dream.
As I said on last night’s Fireside Chat, yesterday the Lions flipped the script. Instead of being the scrappy overachievers, staying one step ahead of the bear by luck and pluck for three quarters, until finally tripping over their own feet and being messily devoured, they were the bear—or, you know, lion. The Lions were the better team yesterday, and it showed throughout the game. They had more talent, more playmakers, and a great gameplan. Time after time, the Lions were just shy of catching their prey: linemen flushing Henne but not quite bringing him down, batting passes high in the air but not quite getting underneath them, corners jumping routes but never quite catching them. The swipes of their claws were always just short, their teeth never quite able to strike home.
Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald compared the Dolphins and Lions to pack horses and thoroughbreds, respectively. The Dolphins are a mostly-complete, mature team—one composed of smart, tough veterans who give it their all on every play. But, they have an almost total lack of dynamic talent, of home-run hitters, of game-changing playmakers. Meanwhile, the Lions are stocked with such playmakers—but have some glaring holes, too.
Infuriatingly, the Dolphins were staying ahead of the Lions with one of the Lions’ best tricks: controlling the interior of the line. On offense, the Dolphins were able to run between the Lions’ DTs—either by simply pushing them out of the way, or running past them when they penetrated. On defense, the Dolphins denied the between-the-tackles run, even to Maurice Morris. In a reversal of this year’s trend, the Dolphins were much better on third down (8/17, 42%) than the Lions were (4/12, 33%). Just as we’ve seen the Lions do against the Jets and Pats, the Dolphins held the Lions back by holding onto the ball.
. . . until it was just too much. Until the Dolphins’ dam burst. Until the Lions, so close to making the game-changing play all game long, finally made something happen. Down by ten with five minutes left, the Lions started a drive where they absolutely needed to get points—and on the first play, Jahvid Best caught a little swing pass, turned on the jets, got a great block from Nate Burleson, and took it to the house. It was a beautiful example of a dynamic, thoroughbred playmaker making a play.
On the ensuing possession, the defense finally took advantage of Henne’s many mistakes. Nathan Vasher jumped a route, and picked it off cleanly. When some dude named Brian Clark dropped a first-down catch, the Lions had to settle for a field goal—but Dave Rayner came through with a tremendous 47-yarder. On just the third Miami play after that, DeAndre Levy picked off Henne again, and this time he took it to the house for the go-ahead score. 17 points scored in just 2:24! The Dolphins’ collapse echoed the Lions’ wilting at the end of the Jets and Pats games—and this morning, the Dolphins bloggers are calling into question whether they have the right head coach on the sidelines.
It’s really, really nice to be on the other side of this one for once: being the better team, having superior talent out itself in the end, feeling relaxed and confident that the Lions are headed in the right direction—fast.
A thrilled Lions fan gets an autograph from Jahvid Best. Also pictured: some little kid
As part of the Pepsi Rookie of the Week/Rookie of the Year award, Jahvid Best, along with thirteen other top NFL rookies, has been honored with his very own Pepsi Max can. The can design got a grand introduction at Meijer the other night, and Jahvid was on hand to meet, greet, take pictures, and sign autographs. Thanks to the Pepsi Max folks, I got a few minutes alongside Jahvid to talk with him, and watch him interact with fans.
As a proud and dedicated Lions fan, I’ve been to my fair share of these events. You bring (or buy) something to be signed, you file in with the rest of the crowd, you wait your turn, the anticipation builds . . . and in a few moments of smiling and signing, you try to say something cool, reference something obscure about the player, pass along a message from another fan—something, anything to make a connection. You try and establish a bond, a kinship, a little moment of commonality with them that you can treasure forever. This time, though, I sat on the other side of the table; instead of one brief moment of connection, I got to witness dozens.
Men, women, boys, girls, people of all sizes, shapes, colors, ages all approached the table with a story, a message, or a tidbit. “Dude. I just want you to know, I scored a 92-yard touchdown with you in Madden yesterday. I just—I just had to tell you.” “I just wanted to say, we know you can do it!”Well-wishes for his health, the season, the Lions, his future. People taking pictures left and right, people who’d been through the line coming back up. The Meijer folks wanting a group picture. Through it all, Jahvid was smiling, calm, friendly, seeming not only willing, but excited to hear everyone out—even with me buzzing in his ear.
I mentioned I love the way Jahvid uses Twitter interactively; he talks about what he’s into, how he’s feeling, and he listens and responds. “I like to use Twitter to talk to fans,” he said. “I mean, I would have loved the chance to talk my favorite players growing up.” Indeed, Twitter helps us have these little connections with our favorite players all the time. I mean, when Jahvid tweets:
This jimmyjohns is hittin right now... Shoulda got two
I nod sagely, having said the same thing to myself many times. Following him on Twitter throughout the season, something that’s jumped out at me is his consistently positive outlook on life—even though he’s had to take some lumps along with the good this year. I asked him about it: “That is something my parents taught me, growing up: that you should always keep a positive attitude, no matter what happens.”
Whenever NFL talk turns to breakout rookies, an old chestnut always comes up: the “rookie wall.” When college football’s regular season ends, there’s still more than a month left to go in the pro schedule. Rookies’ bodies, we’re told, often aren’t conditioned for the long haul. “Oh, I definitely hit a wall,” Jahvid told me, “but it was much more of a mental wall than a physical wall. In college, it’s half school, half football—but in the NFL, you wake up, and it’s football. And then, football. And then, more football. Film, meetings . . . it’s a much harder grind than in college.”
In the last two games, it’s obvious that some of the burst, some of the explosion we saw in Jahvid’s running has returned. Is that, I asked, because of getting over the mental wall—or because his injury is healing? “Oh, it’s much more mental than physical,” he said, which surprised me. “I wasn’t one hundred percent—I’m still not one hundred percent—but settling into it mentally, I just feel much more like myself.”
I asked him about the turf toe; I knew someone who had it and it seemed really, really painful. “Well, the first one happened in Week 1, and the second in Week 3. Everything I kept hearing was, ‘rest, the only thing that’ll help it is rest,’ but there isn’t any rest in the middle of the season.” I asked him if maybe, looking back on it, it would have been better to shut it down for a few weeks earlier in the season, and try and come back strong. “Well . . . I don’t know. I could have done that, or I could have done what I did—either way, it’s in the past now. All I can do is focus on getting healthy going forward.”
Something I’ve always wanted to ask an NFL running back is the importance of “getting into a rhythm,” the idea of feeding your starting back a steady diet of carries early in the game, to try to get going—and know that if he’s stuffed a couple times early, his number will still be called often. Scott Linehan has been diversifying the run game, profoundly, over the past few weeks, and I asked Jahvid if he’d prefer “getting into a rhythm,” or if the rotation was helping keep him fresh, and defenses off-balance. “It doesn’t necessarily matter,” he said. “You just need to find what works for your offense, and we’re definitely finding that.” With 453 rushing yards in the last three games, it’s hard to disagree.
Given the inital results of my offensive line research, I felt it my journalistic (bloggalistic?) duty to ask Jahvid about Dominic Raiola. Full disclosure, for those who don’t know: I’ve long been a fan of Raiola. I concede his lack of road-grader-ness, but I’ve always thought his tenacity, his excellent calling of pass protections, and agile second-level blocking more than made up for his lack of pure power. I referenced Jahvid’s experience at Cal behind All-American center Alex Mack (now of the Browns), and asked him if he’d prefer to have a more beastly center opening up seams in front of him. “Oh, Raiola’s a great player,” he said. “He’s been in the league—honestly, I’m not sure how many years—but a long time. No, he makes great plays for us, and he puts us in a position to win.”
Does he have any personal goals for the remainder of the season? “A hundred-yard game,” he said. “I’ve got to get that one taken care of. Also, just getting healthy.” By this point, the swirl and buzz of the event started to reach fever pitch, and I didn’t want to take up too much more of his time. “How awesome,” I said, “is it, getting to be on your own Pepsi Max can?” He immediately flashed a bright smile. “Oh, it’s ridiculous,” he said, “a great honor for me—and the product is great, too!” I thanked Jahvid for his time, shook his hand, and shook my head in wonder as another round of flashes popped.
I do thank Jahvid, and the Pepsi Max people, for the opportunity; it was an awesome event. I also want to thank my boy, the man you know as “commenter Matt,” who served as my wingman and photographer for the event. I got some great pictures . . .
. . . and I got a new perspective on being a fan—and being a player—in today’s NFL. Now, I underscore the modern, hyperconnected, multi-dimensional fan experience with calls to action: please, vote for Jahvid for Pepsi Rookie of the Week/Year! And also, if you’re a Facebook-type-person, Like Pepsi Max on Facebook! Finally, if you aren’t doing so already, follow me, Jahvid Best, and Pepsi Max on Twitter! Double-finally, feel free to discuss in the comments below.
It seems unlikely that the Lions’ defense does that well against an offense that good twice in a row, though, so I’m going to project the Packers to slightly underperform scoring expectations: gaining 23-26 points. I expect the Lions to be more successful defending the pass with zone coverage, allowing 8.0-8.5 YpA, at the expense of fewer interceptions. The Lions will likely cede the run to the Packers again, allowing 4.25-4.5 YpC. I have high confidence in this projection.
3 points, 3.30 YpC, 6.02 YpA. Tremendous performance by the defense.
As I said, in Week 4, the Lions managed to hold the Packers’ offense to as few points as can be expected, given how effective they were on a per-play basis. If the same offense shows up this week, I don’t see the Lions being so fortunate.
It can be argued that the same offense didn't show up—but the defense far outstripped their Week 4 effort, even with several key starters lost. I’m still stunned at how well this defense performed on Sunday.
I don’t expect the Lions to put up 454 yards against the Packers this time around, but I do project them to be more productive with their yards: scoring 17-23 points, gaining 4.50-5.00 YpC, and throwing for 5.75-6.00 YpA.
Yeah not so much. The yards projections were fairly close—4.63 YpC and 5.32 YpA—but they spun that effectiveness into a single measly touchdown. Two interceptions and a missed field goal didn’t help.
The Lions gave the Packers their best shot in Week 4, and lost the game mostly by shooting themselves in the foot. Between a truly massive amount of penalties (13 for 102 yards), and the now-obligatory Charles Woodson pick-six, the Lions let the Packers off the hook. As I said above, it’s hard to believe that the Lions could play that well against a team as talented as Green Bay twice in once season—and yet, it’s there. It’s there for them, again. They lost by two on the road before, they can win this one at home. They can . . . but they won’t.
They could . . . and they did.
CTRL-C, CTRL-V, folks. This will be an extremely painful 17-24 defeat.
Or, an incredibly improbable 7-3 victory! I haven’t ever been more wildly wrong in a score projection, and I couldn’t be happier about it. I will take that over, and over, and over, and over. Okay, I’ve got an idea: let’s talk about everything I said that was right.
Look for the Lions to drop eight men into coverage on a regular basis, essentially the same game plan we saw against the Patriots on Thanksgiving. The idea is to get enough rush from the front four to slow down the Pack’s offense just long enough for the Lions’ offense to outscore them.
The Lions did blitz the Packers more than they blitzed the Pats—but they certainly got most of their production from the front four. It also took a looooooooooooooong time, but they slowed down that Pack offense just long enough for the Lions’ offense to outscore them. Barely.
Greg Jennings will be the key to this game for the Packers’ offense. If the Lions can stop him with double- and triple-teams, I don’t think Donald Driver and Donald Lee will be enough to score more than the 23-26 I project, if enough to score that much at all.
Greg Jennings: 4 catches, 52 yards, one bobbled pass that was ultimately intercepted. They didn’t score the 23-26 I projected, either.
Last year, I thought I’d identified a systemic advantage for Scott Linehan against Dom Capers (and most 3-4 defenses), where the running game was disproportionately effective, and scoring was therefore disproportionately higher.
They didn’t score much, but the Lions ran very well against the Packers—the #1 defense in the NFL—and it was the difference in the game.
However, the Packers are allowing 4.49 YpC on the ground, 7th-worst in the NFL—so clearly, my notion that the Packers are generally struggling against the run was true. Further, the Lions will be starting Drew Stanton, whose running ability is well-known, and whom the Lions have never hesitated to call designed running plays for. I expect to see at least one rushing touchdown, or 20-plus-yard scramble, from Drew Stanton on Sunday.
Drew ran 4 times for 44 yards. He didn’t score, and his long was only 17 yards (not 20). However, on his other three carries he averaged 9 yards per; he was asked to make plays with his feet and he did—along with the six other Lions who toted the rock on Sunday.
First, this presumes that Drew Stanton plays like he did last week: an efficient, effective, conservative backup quarterback. If Stanton has a regression to his “2009 49ers game” form, this will be an ugly blowout. However, there’s an X factor here named Jahvid Best. We saw a return to form last week, and if he still has that burst, that bounce, he could do an awful lot of damage against a Green Bay defense that’s lost three of its top five linebackers for the year.
Unfortunately, Drew did regress to 2009 form against the Packers’ defense—at least for the first three quarters—and boy, was it ever ugly. However, the running of Best, Maurice Morris, Stefan Logan, and Stanton himself bailed the offense out.
Finally, in the first matchup, Brandon Pettigrew made a lot more headlines for the two or three crucial passes he dropped, than the eight he caught for 91 yards. Likely being matched up against A.J. Hawk, as 49ers TE Vernon Davis was last week (4 catches, 126 yards, 1 TD) could result in a field day for Jumbotron.
Okay, this one was pretty much entirely wrong; Pettigrew was held to just 2 catches for 14 yards. However, it’s worth noting that the game-winning touchdown came on a tight end screen to Will Heller—who was spelling Pettigrew. Further, Heller ran right through A.J. Hawk on his way to paydirt.
The Packers are sitting at 8-4, one game behind the Bears in the race to the top of the NFC North. The Lions are sitting at 2-10, three games ahead of the Vikings in the race to the bottom of the NFC North. By the Simple Ranking System, both teams are much, much better than their record implies: the Packers’s value is 10.0; #2 in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Lions are valued at 0.0, and ranked 16th. Statistically speaking, the Lions are the median team: right smack dab in the middle of the NFL, in terms of relative strength. But is that enough to compete with the mighty Pack, even before a sold-out Ford Field?
Mike McCarthy vs. Gunther Cunningham
McC
Ornk
PgG
YpA
YpC
Gun
Drnk
PpG
DYpA
DYpC
PTS
PTSΔ
YpA
YpAΔ
YpC
YpCΔ
NOS
14
21.2
6.43
4.46
TEN
29th
27.2
8.05
4.62
12
-43%
8.04
25%
1.53
-66%
NOS
14
21.8
6.62
3.96
KCC
16th
20.3
6.58
4.10
27
24%
9.59
45%
5.83
47%
GBP
3rd
28.8
7.56
4.30
DET
32nd
30.9
5.42
4.42
26
-10%
9.68
28%
3.57
-17%
GBP
3rd
28.8
7.56
4.30
DET
32nd
30.9
5.42
4.42
34
18%
8.92
18%
2.96
-31%
GBP
7th
25.2
7.68
3.99
DET
25th
25.5
7.18
4.58
21
-17%
10.65
39%
4.28
7%
GBP
7th
25.2
7.68
3.99
DET
25th
25.5
7.18
4.58
In the last Watchtowering of the Packers, I discussed the very strong statistical trend we’ve seen when Mike McCarthy faces Gunther Cunningham:
Given equal or greater talent, Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive 4-3 disproportionately disrupts Mike McCarthy’s downfield flavor of the Bill Walsh offense. Given lesser talent, Gunther’s 4-3 will cap offensive production with sacks and turnovers, even while allowing better-than-average offensive effectiveness between the 20s.
In the last two meetings, however, the Packers’ offense has underperformed even this. In both cases, the Packers scored the amount of points I projected—but with the help of a defensive touchdown, meaning the offense was a full TD below what expectations project. Last time, I projected the Packers to do the following:
With the Lions possessing a systemic advantage against the Packers’ already injury-weakened running game, and in depressing the Packers’ scoring, I project the Pack will fall just short of their season average, scoring 24-27 points. I have very high confidence in this projection.
Given the depth and specificity of the data we’ve got, and the special circumstances surrounding the matchup, I’ll take the opportunity to get a little more specific: I cite my Whack-A-Mole principle, and project that the Lions will concede the run to the Packers, allowing 3.75-4.0 YpC, in order to focus primarily on the pass, which should yield 7.5-8.25 YpA. Further, I predict the Lions will sack the Packers four to six times.
The Pack did bomb it down the field, picking up 10.65 YpA—but with only 17 attempts, and two of those picked off, that only amounted to 181 yards. The Lions did cede the run to the Pack in the process: 4.28 YpC. The Lions sacked the Packers twice (on only 19 dropbacks), though, and recovered two fumbles in addition to those two INTs. The disruption in scoring is obvious: the Packers are the 7th-best scoring offense in football this year, averaging 25.2 PpG, and the Lions—the 25th-ranked defense—held them to just 21 offensive points. Keep in mind, the Lions have been allowing 25.5 points per game on the average; to hold the 7th-best offense to less than what you’ve been allowing on average all year is an impressive feat.
So. The Lions are allowing 25.5 points per game, the Packers are scoring 25.2 points per game. The Lions have since put their #1 DE, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and #2 corner, Alphonso Smith, on Injured Reserve. However, the Packers have since lost #1 RB Ryan Grant, and #1 TE Jermichael Finley to injuries, as well. The last game was at Lambeau, but this game will be a a Packer-fan-filled Ford Field. As I said last week, rarely do two meetings between two teams in the same season end up with the same result, but all the factors seem to cancel each other out.
It seems unlikely that the Lions’ defense does that well against an offense that good twice in a row, though, so I’m going to project the Packers to slightly underperform scoring expectations: gaining 23-26 points.I expect the Lions to be more successful defending the pass with zone coverage, allowing 8.0-8.5 YpA, at the expense of fewer interceptions. The Lions will likely cede the run to the Packers again, allowing 4.25-4.5 YpC. I have high confidence in this projection.
Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:
Again, with such a consistent trend, and a prior game this season, everything above is a mitigating or aggravating factor—we’re just looking to see what will modify what happened before. As I said, in Week 4, the Lions managed to hold the Packers’ offense to as few points as can be expected, given how effective they were on a per-play basis. If the same offense shows up this week, I don’t see the Lions being so fortunate. On the other hand . . .
Look for the Lions to drop eight men into coverage on a regular basis, essentially the same game plan we saw against the Patriots on Thanksgiving. The idea is to get enough rush from the front four to slow down the Pack’s offense just long enough for the Lions’ offense to outscore them. Greg Jennings will be the key to this game for the Packers’ offense. If the Lions can stop him with double- and triple-teams, I don’t think Donald Driver and Donald Lee will be enough to score more than the 23-26 I project, if enough to score that much at all.
Scott Linehan vs. Dom Capers
Lin
Ornk
PgG
YpA
YpC
Dom
Drnk
PpG
DYpA
DYpC
PTS
PTSΔ
YpA
YpAΔ
YpC
YpCΔ
MIN
6th
25.3
7.16
4.71
HOU
21st
19.3
6.89
3.92
34
34%
7.92
11%
4.69
0%
STL
30th
14.5
5.67
3.95
MIA
21st
21.6
6.61
2.35
12
-17%
4.26
-25%
4.30
9%
DET
24th
18.1
5.60
3.91
GBP
12th
20.3
6.17
4.46
0
-100%
4.20
-25%
4.33
11%
DET
27th
16.4
7.80
4.42
GBP
7th
18.6
5.96
3.59
12
-27%
4.95
-37%
3.17
-28%
DET
13th
23.2
5.92
3.72
GBP
1st
15.7
6.02
4.49
26
12%
6.13
4%
5.86
58%
DET
13th
23.2
5.92
3.72
GBP
1st
15.7
6.02
4.49
Last year, I thought I’d identified a systemic advantage for Scott Linehan against Dom Capers (and most 3-4 defenses), where the running game was disproportionately effective, and scoring was therefore disproportionately higher. Then, Daunte Culpepper went out and Daunte Culpeppered the Lions to a big stinky shutout in their first matchup against the Pack, seemingly blowing my theory out of the water. However, this season has shown that my initial conclusion has legs.
This year, the Packers have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL. Yes, that’s right, let me say that again: this year, the Packers have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL. You wouldn’t know it from how little attention this fact has received, but it’s true. Nevertheless, Shaun Hill led the Lions to a 26-point day against these Packers on the road, and his 40-yard scramble led the Lions’ rushing attack to an impressive 5.86 YpC.
In the comments on the last Watchtower, commenter Matt pointed out that a lot of the Packers’ rushing yards allowed to that point were gained by Michael Vick—and sure enough, the Packers allowed the Lions some significant scramble yardage, as well. I replied in the Watchtower Review:
My notion that Green Bay is generally struggling against the run this year was false. However, we may have stumbled upon something interesting: are Green Bay’s nickel packages especially susceptible to quarterback runs? With a three-man front attempting to rush the passer, and one or more linebackers blitzing, it would make sense that there’s a giant gaping hole in the middle of the field. I’ll be keeping an eye on this throughout the season . . . and for the next Watchtower.
Well, I can’t find an quick answer for how many yards the Packers have been surrendering to rushing quarterbacks, or if that total’s unusually high. However, the Packers are allowing 4.49 YpC on the ground, 7th-worst in the NFL—so clearly, my notion that the Packers are generally struggling against the run was true. Further, the Lions will be starting Drew Stanton, whose running ability is well-known, and whom the Lions have never hesitated to call designed running plays for. I expect to see at least one rushing touchdown, or 20-plus-yard scramble, from Drew Stanton on Sunday.
Typically, the Lions are outgained by their opponents, but keep games close with red-zone defense, sacks, and turnovers. However, against the Packers, the Lions actually far outgained the Pack, outrushing them 123 to 91, and outpassing them 331 to 181. It was only a slew of costly penalties that kept the Lions from scoring thirty or more the last time around. I don’t expect the Lions to put up 454 yards against the Packers this time around, but I do project them to be more productive with their yards: scoring 17-23 points, gaining 4.50-5.00 YpC, and throwing for 5.75-6.00 YpA.
Mitigating/Augmenting Factors:
First, this presumes that Drew Stanton plays like he did last week: an efficient, effective, conservative backup quarterback. If Stanton has a regression to his “2009 49ers game” form, this will be an ugly blowout. However, there’s an X factor here named Jahvid Best. We saw a return to form last week, and if he still has that burst, that bounce, he could do an awful lot of damage against a Green Bay defense that’s lost three of its top five linebackers for the year. Finally, in the first matchup, Brandon Pettigrew made a lot more headlines for the two or three crucial passes he dropped, than the eight he caught for 91 yards. Likely being matched up against A.J. Hawk, as 49ers TE Vernon Davis was last week (4 catches, 126 yards, 1 TD) could result in a field day for Jumbotron.
Conclusion
The Lions gave the Packers their best shot in Week 4, and lost the game mostly by shooting themselves in the foot. Between a truly massive amount of penalties (13 for 102 yards), and the now-obligatory Charles Woodson pick-six, the Lions let the Packers off the hook. As I said above, it’s hard to believe that the Lions could play that well against a team as talented as Green Bay twice in once season—and yet, it’s there. It’s there for them, again. They lost by two on the road before, they can win this one at home. They can . . . but they won’t. Here’s what I said at the end of the last Watchtower:
I'd love to say that this Packer team, struggling so mightily to run and stop the run, is primed for an upset. But the talent gap between these teams is still too large, especially when considering the almost-two-decade-long streak of Lambeau futility the Lions are riding. I project another tantalizingly close game, with an outstanding day by the defensive line—marred by the back seven yielding to one of the best passing attacks in the game. This will be an extremely painful 17-24 defeat.
CTRL-C, CTRL-V, folks. This will be an extremely painful 17-24 defeat.
The Bears were the first team I Watchtowered this season. They were also the first team to be Watchtowered in both the 2009 and 2010 seasons. Now, they’re the first team to be Watchtowered twice this season. The situation this time around is much different than in Week 1. The Lions, at the time, seemed poised for a breakthrough season; they had a clear vision and direction, and were primed with the talent to achieve it. The Bears, meanwhile, were all over the place: loads of flashy talent, lots of money spent—but two new coordinators, and a sense that Death was lurking over the shoulder of Lovie Smith’s coaching tenure.
Of course, we know what happened: the referees insanely ruled that Calvin Johnson’s touchdown was not a touchdown, the Lions lost, and the Bears have been winning games ever since. At times they’ve looked wobbly—even farcically inept—but eight times out of eleven, the Bears have beaten their opponent.
. . . well, at least seven times out of eleven.
Scott Linehan vs. Lovie Smith
Lin
Ornk
PgG
YpA
YpC
Lovie
Drnk
PpG
DYpA
DYpC
PTS
PTSΔ
YpA
YpAΔ
YpC
YpCΔ
MIN
6th
26.0
7.60
4.75
STL
22nd
21.6
5.87
4.15
17
-35%
6.88
-9%
7.27
53%
MIN
6th
25.3
7.16
4.71
CHI
13th
20.7
6.49
4.13
27
7%
11.61
62%
4.04
-14%
MIN
6th
19.9
5.94
3.69
CHI
13th
20.7
6.49
4.13
14
-30%
8.45
42%
6.64
80%
STL
10th
22.9
6.69
4.26
CHI
3rd
15.9
5.36
3.96
27
18%
6.47
-3%
4.59
8%
STL
30th
14.5
5.67
3.95
CHI
16th
21.9
6.2
3.42
3
-79%
6.56
16%
0.74
-81%
DET
27th
16.4
7.80
4.42
CHI
21st
23.4
6.36
4.33
24
46%
7.45
-4%
2.46
-44%
DET
27th
25.2
5.95
3.63
CHI
21st
23.4
6.36
4.33
23
-9%
7.70
29%
4.00
10%
DET
12th
23.5
5.86
3.59
CHI
2nd
15.6
5.77
3.58
14
-40%
5.03
-14%
0.95
-74%
DET
12th
23.5
5.86
3.59
CHI
2nd
15.6
5.77
3.58
Last year, I thought I’d identified a strong trend when Linehan offenses meet Lovie Smith defenses, and then the Bears spent last year proving me wrong. In the first Watchtower of this year, I modified my theory slightly:
Given greater or equal talent, Lovie Smith's relatively aggressive Tampa 2 will surrender a disproportionate amount of yards to Linehan's balanced offense, but also generate high numbers of sacks and turnovers, disproportionately disrupting scoring. Given mediocre or poor talent, Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2 surrenders disproportionately high yardage and points, respective to the Linehan offense’s talent level.
. . . I’ll say that based on extremely weak data, the most likely outcome of the game is a close Lions loss, with lots of sacks and turnovers for both sides, and a final score of 24-30.
The Lions only scored 14 points in the official reckoning—but of course, we know they actually scored at least 20, and would likely have gone for 2. Even assuming they don’t convert the two, scoring 20 points slides the average/actual delta from -40% to -15%. The Lions scoring 15% below their mean is not unexpected for the 12th-ranked offense going up against the 2nd-ranked defense. The “sacks and turnovers” certainly were present, though: the Lions were sacked twice for –32 yards, fumbled three times (and lost two), and threw an interception, to boot. Still, though, the Lions produced points when they absolutely needed to. Here was my reaction in the Watchtower Review:
If the Lions were the beneficiary of a systemic advantage that allowed them to move the ball better than usual, either the Lions have an epically bad offense this season, or the Bears are much, much better than commonly thought.
It’s the latter. The addition of Julius Peppers, and the return of Brian Urlacher to form, has this Bears defense playing like Bears defenses of old. Allowing only 15.6 points per game on the average, and equally stiff against the run and pass, the Bears’ defense has been keeping the erratic offense in games. In fact, only the Seahawks and Eagles have topped the Lions’ “20-point” performance against these 2010 Bears. But, can the Lions repeat the feat?
Of course, the big difference between these two games is that Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best started the first game, and Drew Stanton and Maurice Morris will be starting this one. However, Stafford famously didn’t finish that game—and Best mustered only 20 yards on 14 carries. So, then, the Lions shouldn’t be too far off their typical pace, unless Stanton completely implodes. Also, note that the Lions’ mean YpA- and YpC-gained figured nearly match the Bears’ means allowed (5.86/5.77 YpA, 3.59/3.58 YpC). Therefore, given a mild yard-producing advantage for Scott Linehan balanced offenses against Lovie Smith aggressive Tampa 2 defenses, I project the Lions to roughly meet expectations: 17-21 points, 5.50-6.0 YpA, and 3.50-3.75 YpC. I have medium-to-high confidence in this projection.
Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:
Besides injuries (the Lions are missing their top two quarterbacks, and functionally missing their top two running backs), the main factor is the swing from a season-opening road game to a somewhat-meaningless home game. This is a classic trap game, and it’s already a sellout. If Drew Stanton (and the offensive line) can play like he did (and they did) against the Giants, the Lions could do at least this well, and possibly better. If Drew implodes with turnovers, as he did in his only previous start . . . disaster.
Mike Martz vs. Gunther Cunningham:
MM
Ornk
PgG
YpA
YpC
Gun
Drnk
PpG
DYpA
DYpC
PTS
PTS?
YpA
YpA?
YpC
YpC?
STL
1st
33.8
8.91
4.81
KCC
19th
22.1
6.32
3.83
34
1%
8.48
-5%
3.30
-31%
CHI
22nd
20.2
8.32
3.84
DET
23rd
22.4
7.13
4.79
19
-6%
10.63
28%
3.26
-15%
CHI
22nd
20.2
8.32
3.84
DET
23rd
22.4
7.13
4.79
Here’s what I said in the previous Watchtower:
When the two teams faced one another, it was a study in averages: Martz’s offense produced exactly to its season mean in points, and very nearly so in YpA. Now, the Chiefs did manage to bottle up the run game, allowing only 3.3 YpC—and they also snared three interceptions, and garnered four sacks. Then again, Martz’s offense was notorious for surrendering both picks and sacks in the name of scoring. So, we only have one data point, and it points toward neither side having a systemic advantage or disadvantage. The two teams should play to their (relatively unknown) talent and execution levels.
Given that the Lions allowed 30.9 points last season, and given that they’re presumably improved, I’ll presume that they’re presumably good enough to allow the Bears to reach their season averages for 2010—which, of course, is a total guess anyway, since the one thing Martz does everywhere he goes is inflate scoring over the prior year. Let’s just call it thirty points. This is a guess and not a prediction, and I have extremely low confidence in it.
. . . and in the review:
On defense, Cutler and the Bears moved the ball with incredible ease; 10.62 YpA show that yards were coming in chunks through the air. Despite averaging only 3.25 YpC, the Bears continued to feed the ground game, too: 31 carries at that rate is good for 101 yards. Fortunately, the Lions managed to snare an interception, recover three fumbles, and sack Jay Cutler four times—and the timeliness of said turnovers kept points off the board. Even better was the tremendous four-down goal line stand. It was a signature performance by the defensive line, and it kept the game in the Lions’ control—for a little while, at least.
Going forward, the defense will probably be less spectacularly vulnerable; the Martz offense specifically attacks the Lions' defense's greatest weaknesses. Then again, the defense may well be less spectacular; the Martz offense’s greatest weaknesses played to the Lions’ defense’s strength. Even given the way the back seven was—for the most part—traumatized by the Bears, the Lions’ D played with enough heart, and enough pass rush, to make me think there’s hope for this team despite the painful loss.
That’s proved to be prescient: the Lions have played with a lot of heart, and a lot of pass rush, to this point—but there’s also been an awful lot of trauma in the back seven. Hope? Well, sure, there’s been that, but more for the 2011 harvest than the 2010 vintage. The only important cogs missing for either unit will be Bears’ OLB Pina Tinoisamoa, and Lions’ DE Kyle Vanden Bosch—who put up one of the most amazing individual performances I’ve seen in the first game. With luck, a finally-healthy-ish Cliff Avril, Lawrence Jackson, and Turk McBride will keep up the intensity. Oh, and the Lions will play with DeAndre Levy, who wasn’t available for the first matchup.
It looks as though the only statistical trend for these two coaches, when facing off against one another, is that both units will play to their means: the 20.2-ppg Bears scored 19 against the 22.4-ppg Lions. Note, however, that that included about thirty minutes of shutout play in between Matt Forte receiving touchdowns. Given the data at hand, I’m inclined to project a repeat performance: 17-21 points, 7.50-8.00 YpA, and 4.0-4.25 YpC. I have medium confidence in this projection.
Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:
Not many. The Bears have been slowly evolving from a high variance, pitch-it-around scheme to a more safe and predictable spread-then-run approach. Cutler’s cut down on some of the wildness, and the offensive line’s been bailed out with shorter routes and drops. What they’ve done is take some of the teeth out of the offense, in exchange for committing fewer mistakes—the end result, though, is mostly unchanged: the defense is winning games for the Bears. The major difference is, they’ve realized it and are playing to that strength. Unless Martz releases the hounds, and the Bears go full-out track meet against the Lions’ secondary, I see a similar, if less wild, final result.
Conclusion
The one thing I’ve learned over the past two years of doing this preview, is that when the same teams play twice in a season, the results are rarely the same. But the data points to a repeat—and the injury problems for the Lions should be offset by the difference between a season-opening road game, and a midseason sellout. This is a statement game in many respects, and turnovers will likely make the difference. Last time, there were five fumbles (three lost), two picks, and 6 sacks for –42 yards. I see a similarly messy game this time around; how those turnovers and sacks are distributed will be the difference in the outcome. I am tempted to call this a draw, but at this point in the season, I’ll go out on a limb one more time—despite having a limb hacked out from underneath me three times already this season. I hesitantly project a 21-20 Lions victory, if for no other reason than the Lions need it much more than the Bears want it.
Posts
