have the Lions left the safety off?

A few days ago, the excellent Chrissie Wywrot of the official Lions site penned a piece on embattled safety Daniel Bullocks.  It almost seemed like a direct challenge to recent articles by Mlive.com’s Tom Kowalski and the Detroit News’s John Niyo suggesting that Bullocks is simply not in the mix to start next to rookie Louis Delmas.  Wywrot discloses something only hinted at before: Bullocks never really recovered from the blown ACL that sidelined him in 2007. 

Safety play is something difficult for the HDTV-deprived fan to quantify (thanks, 4:3 aspect ratio!).  We see the strong safety come up and lay the lumber, and we see big interceptions.  Sometimes, on replays from alternate angles, we can see a safety get beat deep.  However, unlike front-seven defenders, it’s impossible for the average fan to simply watch a safety for a snap, or series of snaps, to see how they’re doing.  Therefore, when it comes to ‘grading out’ a safety, we’re beholden to those who have access to game film.  Kowalski’s sources tell him that Bullocks’ angles were all wrong in 2008, and that the fluidity, quickness, and aggressiveness he displayed in 2006 appeared to be “gone”.  Killer added that when a defense gives up many long runs (as the Lions did in 2008), that’s often the result of poor safety play.

Interestingly, the Niyo piece I linked above appears to have been edited.  Here is the original quote, as snagged from The Den, Scout.com’s Lions forum: Correction: the below quote is actually from rotoworld.com, adding their own analysis to Niyo's.  The article linked above is apparently as it was first published.

“Gerald Alexander and Kalvin Pearson split time at strong safety with the Lions first-team defense during Tuesday's minicamp.  While rookie Louis Delmas is locked in at free safety, the new coaching staff has been less than content with its option at strong safety. They no longer see Daniel Bullocks as a starter, and free agent Marquand Manuel was recently brought on board as another option.”

This jibes with the other reports: the post-trade safety pecking order has Pearson and Manuel splitting time with the ones—but Pearson is thought of as a valuable backup, but too athletically limited to be a starter in the Lions’ new symmetrical defense.  This leaves the door wide open for Bullocks—but Bullocks has to recover his physical skills, rebuild his confidence in those skills, learn the new system, and then incorporate it all, so he can play as aggressively and instinctually as he did his rookie year.  Both from published reports, and my talks with some folks in the know, it sounds like he’s got about 1.5 out of 4 down pat right now—and an uphill climb to be relevant this fall.

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the secondary is dead, long live the secondary

Ever since the brutal injuries to cornerback Bryant Westbrook and safety Kurt Schultz during the 2000 season, the Lions have been absolutely desperate for help in the secondary.  With the possible exception of the offensive line, the defensive backfield has been the most consistently disappointing Lions unit on the field over the past decade.  However, unlike the offensive line, disappointment has been the only thing consistent about the Lions' secondary.  While the offensive line has had the same left tackle and center for nearly a decade, it seems as though every year brings a new "secondary overhaul" . . . and every year brings more disappointment.

2001: Signed CB Todd Lyght, CB/S Robert Bailey, and S Chidi Iwouma.  Subtracted S Corwin Brown, CB Darnell Walker, and CB Marquis Walker.

2002: Drafted CB Andre Goodman and CB Chris Cash; signed S Corey Harris, S Brian Walker, CB Eric Davis, and S Bracey Walker.  Subtracted Terry Fair, Ron Rice, Kurt Schultz,  Robert Bailey, and Chidi Iwouma.

2003: Signed CB Dre' Bly, CB Otis Smith, and drafted S Terry Holt.  Subtracted Todd Lyght and Eric Davis.

2004: Signed CB Fernando Bryant, S Brock Marion, S Vernon Fox, and drafted CB Keith Smith.  Subtracted Brian Walker and Corey Harris.

2005: Signed S Kennoy Kennedy, CB R.W. McQuarters, and S Jon McGraw; drafted CB Stanley Wilson.  Subtracted Brock Marion and Chris Cash.

2006: Drafted S Daniel Bullocks and signed CB Jamar Fletcher.  Subtracted Andre Goodman, R.W. McQuarters, Bracey Walker, and Vernon Fox.

2007: Drafted S Gerald Alexander, CB A.J. Davis, and CB Ramzee Robinson; signed CB Travis Fisher.  Subtracted Dre Bly, Terry Holt, Jamar Fletcher, and Jon McGraw.

2008: Traded for CB Leigh Bodden, and signed S Dwight Smith, S Kalvin Person, and CB Brian Kelly.  Subtracted Fernando Bryant, Kennoy Kennedy, and Stanley Wilson . . . and Brian Kelly.

2009: Drafted S Louis Delmas, and signed CB Philip Buchanon, CB/S Anthony Henry, CB Eric King, and S Marquand Manuel.  Subtracted Leigh Bodden, Travis Fisher, and Dwight Smith.

That is an extraordinary amount of roster churn.  Lest you think these are mostly bottom-feeders, I made sure not to mention any player that didn't play at least 10 games in a season for the Lions.  If you look closely, the Lions brought in two or more new starters in the backfield almost every single year since Millen took over.  There was absolutely zero consistency.  Outside of Dre' Bly and Fernando Bryant, I don't think any player on this list started more than two consecutive years . . . and thanks to injuries, Bly and Bryant were almost never on the field at the same time in four seasons!

Unfortunately, it looks like this year's overhaul is D.O.A.  After jettisoning most of the depth chart at cornerback, the Lions traded Jon Kitna to Dallas for Anthony Henry, signed Philip Buchanon from Tampa Bay, and signed Titans nickel/dime guy Eric King.  The Lions then drafted Louis Delmas in the second round to make a very talented young trio of Daniel Bullocks and Gerald Alexander.  Veterans Kalvin Pearson and Stu Schweigart made for solid depth.  Then, oddly, the Lions added journeyman safety Marquand Manuel . . . it seemed to make no sense.  Wasn't there already a logjam at safety?  Bullocks should be pencilled in next to Delmas, Alexander is allegedly healthy, Pearson is an adequate SS, and Schweigart is a talented enigma . . . where would Manuel fit?  Even if Pearson's too limited to play in Schwartz/Cunningham's symmetrical defense,  and Schwiegart is strictly depth, shouldn't Manuel be trapped firmly beneath Bullocks and Alexander?

Apparently not.  According to Tom Kowalski, Bullocks regressed badly throughout the season, "missed even more time during this off-season" (?!?), and is "way behind the rest of the veterans".  This is dismaying, to say the least.  If Bullocks is not only not reminding people of 2006, but way behind guys like Manuel, Pearson, and Schweigart?  He'll honestly have a fight to make the team.  In fact, he almost surely will, because Killer then went and penned another major bummer of an article . . .

If Henry slides back to safety, that means that he, Alexander, Bullocks, Manuel, Pearson, and Schweigart are all fighting for one starting spot, and maybe two reserve positions.  Pearson, the most obvious cut, is a special teams ace, so maybe not.  Schweigart's a local-ish product and a fan favorite, but unless he returns to his '05 form, I don't see him escaping the axe.  That leaves Henry and Alexander as the most likely prospects to start next to Delmas, with the loser of that battle fighting Manuel and Bullocks for the third-safety spot.  That's a nice mix of youth, talent, experience, skill, and depth at the two safety spots, then.  But, what about the corners?

Oh my stars and garters.

If Henry slides back to safety, the #1 corner is Philip Buchanon.  My take on him at the time of the signing included a fair bit of optimism--as a young veteran, he possessed all the talent in the world--tempered with a good bit of realism: his production in Tampa made him a legit NFL starter, but little more.  There's no doubt that at his best, in a man-to-man scheme, he'd be a top 20, top 15 corner in this league.  However, he's never consistently played at his best, and he's always had a bit of at attitude problem, whining his way out of first Oakland, and then Houston.  That appeared to be a non-issue for the past two seasons, but attitude-problem leopards seldom change their spots.  Combine that factor with the uncertainty that is evaluating a cornerback in the Tampa Two, and you have a complete mystery as your #1 corner.

The #2 at that point would be either Eric King, or Keith Smith.  King was a sort of Plan C for the Lions.  It had been noted, almost from the day Schwartz took over, that Titans nickel corner/return specialist Chris Carr would be an ideal fit, and a priority target.  When the Lions feared missing out on Carr, they signed Eric King as insurance--another Titans corner, and also a nickel back, depending on what you read.  Titans HC Jeff Fisher:

"He played real well for us as a special teamer, he played corner for us at times and was a nickel back. He's a tough guy and a good locker room guy and a good person. Those are the kinds of players you want on your team. Eric will be successful there with whatever they ask him to do. Eric, coming in, can get the job done as a starter if that's what Jim wants to do."

I kind of find it difficult to believe that the Titans had two young corners that were good enough to start for other teams on their bench, so I kind of find it difficult to believe that the Lions are going to be okay if they're starting this King guy and Philip Buchanon at corner when toe meets leather in New Orleans.  Then there's Keith Smith, 2004 draftee who flashed some promise initially, and then languished under Marinelli.  I am consistently advised that Smith is for real, has great talent, and was simply ruined by bad coaching.  Be that as it may, ruined by bad coaching is ruined by bad coaching, and I am taking a firm believe-it-as-I see it with both of these guys.  After that is former Mr. Irrelevant, Ramzee Robinson, and depth guys Chris Roberson, Antonio Smith, and Dexter Wynn.

Right now, things are looking extremely shaky back there.  I like the safety pair of Delmas and Henry a lot--but I'd much rather have Henry be able to stay at corner with Buchanon, and Alexander or Manuel starting next to Delmas.  No matter how things shake out, though, there's no doubt that the Lions are still in desperate need of true skill and talent in the defensive backfield--and nothing will be able to change that until the snow melts in 2010.  Don't forget, this is when things look their best--heaven help the Lions' defense once injuries, fatigue, and/or underperformance cut down the Lions' DBs like weeds once more.

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old mother hubbard: the safeties

Finally, we come the last installment of my roster evaluation--defensively speaking, anyway. The Safeties are supposed to be the last line of defense, yet far too often the Lions safeties were the only line of defense.

Daniel Bullocks: Bullocks was a second-round pick in the 2006 draft; the 6'-0", 212-pounder had starred at Nebraska, manning the safety position his twin brother Josh. Bullocks came out hot his rookie year--in his first start (Week 2 @ GB), he racked up 12 tackles (8 solo) and two passes defensed. He finished the year with 74 tackles, a sack, and 3 passes defensed--this in 15 games and 7 starts! Bullocks looked like he was set to be a fixture at safety for the Lions for a long, long time. However, in the third preseason game of 2007, he blew out his knee, and was lost for the year. His intense rehab efforts and successful comeback for the 2008 preseason earned him the Lions' Ed Block Courage Award. Coming into the 2008 regular season, we didn't know how much Bullocks would or could contribute--well, the answer was "a lot". Despite the presence of free agent signee Dwight Smith, as well as (for a while) 2007 rookie standout Gerald Alexander, Bullocks had a great statistical year. Finishing third on the team with 121 tackles (74 solo), Bullocks established himself as an energetic force. He's althetic enough to play either spot--but he loves to hit, so he's a slightly more natural strong safety. However, due to the emergence of Kalvin Pearson, he finished the season starting at the free safety spot. Bullocks showed no signs of being slowed by the knee injury, even while playing more in coverage, and with his 2008 performance he solidified his position as one of the few defensive building blocks the Lions have. Bottom line: Bullocks is a talenteed young safety who plays with athleticism, but likes to get his nose in the pile. Should be an asset for years to come.

Gerald Alexander: The third of three 2007 Lions second-round picks, Gerald Alexander was one of the vaunted Boise State Broncos who took out Oklahoma in the '06-'07 Fiesta Bowl. A giant-killer, yes, but no dwarf at 6'-0", 204, Alexander was pressed into starting duty when Daniel Bullocks' knee imploded. Alexander quickly found confidence: in Week 2 against Minnesota, he garnered 5 solo tackles, two passes defensed, and a interception, which he returned for 34 yards. He started the rest of the way after that, ending up with 81 tackles (59 solo), 2 sacks, and two INTs. Alexander's precocious field awareness and obvious athletcism made it look like the Lions had their free safety of the future in hand. With the ancipated return of Daniel Bullocks, it seemed like the Lions were set for 2008 and beyond at the safety position. However, in the 2008 preseason, something was obviously wrong. Alexander looked tentative, hesitant. Instead of making plays, he was a step (or two, or three) late. He whiffed on tackles. He looked nothing like the star-in-the-making we'd seen in 2007. He started the first preseason game, but was benched in favor of the fully-healed Daniel Bullocks. He made some appearances in rotation, but had just seven tackles in five games. He suffered a neck injury in the 4th quarter against Minnesota which would require surgery. He was placed on IR, ending his season. Bottom Line: Alexander is either a talented young free safety who, along with Bullocks, will be be a feared element of the Lions defense--or not. Only time will tell.

Kalvin Pearson: Brought in as a special teams standout, and Tampa 2 "system" depth (as Bullocks was still recovering), Pearson almost immediately shamed himself, and the Lions organization, by getting arrested for choking a woman pregnant with his child. Many fans, including myself, wanted this guy immediately released from the team. He was released--on bond--and attended minicamps as if nothing had ever happened. The felony charges were eventually dropped (possible interpretation: the woman was paid enough money to shut up), and Pearson was instead indicted with misdemeanor charges of 'obstructing or resisting a police office without violence', the hearing for which he was not required to even attend.

. . . I'm sure that's all on the up-and-up.

Anyway, Pearson, as both a probable scumbag and another of Marinelli's mass import of Tampa castoffs, had a long way to go to endear himself to Lions fans. At first, behind Bullocks, Alexander, and Dwight Smith, Pearson rarely saw the field when there weren't kickers or punters out there with him. However, as the painfully thin Lions secondary got thinner with the injury to Keith Smith, Pearson started to play nickel corner. His stout build (5'-10", 200 lbs.), great tackling ability, and good short-zone coverage skills made him a better T2 nickel than any of the other corners. When Smith got hurt, Pearson became the starting strong safety, and Bullocks slid over to free. In Week 9, his second as the starter, Pearson had a monster game, posting 10 solo tackles. Much to my chagrin, Pearson continued to be a rare and valuable playmaker on the Lions'd D, finishing with 83 tackles, 1 sack, 4 forced fumbles and 4 passes defensed. This in just 10 starts as a strong safety. Pearson is limited athletically, but as a strong safety he's an undeniable asset to the roster. Bottom line: Pearson is a great special-teamer and was suprisingly effective as a strong safety. He's not a long-term top-flite starter, but on this roster he's no worse than a valuable rotational guy. Still, a nasty injury to, or the unexpected release of, this jerk wouldn't be the worst news I ever heard.

Dwight Smith: Smith was another Tampa 2 system guy, one who'd been an important cog in those early-aughts Bucs defenses. Most recently, however, Smith played for the franchise where the "Tampa" 2 actually originated--Minnesota. In 14 games (13 starts) in Mike Tomlin's Tampa 2 system, Smith did his ballhawking thing, intercepting four passes (returning one 93 yards for a TD), and defending 9 others. It was hoped that Smith could rotate in with Bullocks and Alexander, play some nickel corner, and generate some turnovers--as well as provide needed veteran depth and leadership. However, partly due to Alexander's failures at free safety, Smith ended up starting Week 1 at strong safety. He was fairly productive at first, but by the time he injured his foot against Houston, he wasn't making much impact. Kalvin Pearson took over, and by the time Smith came back he was relegated to the bench. Bottom line: Smith was expected to be a playmaker in rotation, but instead he was an unremarkable starter. Pearson made him irrelevant, and he will likely be released in the offseason.

Stuart Schweigert: One of the more interesting street free agents I've ever seen. Schweiger hails from Saginaw, and played college ball at Purdue. The Raiders drafted him in the third round of the 2004 draft, and he immediately saw time. By 2005, he was starting, and his 6'-2", 205 lb. frame got 87 tackles (70 solo), 2 INTs, and 7 passes defensed that year. He started all of 2006, racking up a career-high 107 tackles, and then in 2007 . . . he started off at his usual pace, and then got hurt. Schweigert played only part time the rest of the way. He went throught he offseason with the Raiders, only to see the writing on the wall when the Raiders drafted Michael Huff. Scheweigert sounds off about it here. I don't understand how a 27-year-old, former third-round-pick safety who's played at a high level gets cut, then gets no interest until the 0-10 Lions are desperate for a warm body. Schweigert was only got on the field for the Lions in Week 12, and then played only sparingly. At this point, we have no idea what he can do. Bottom line: Schweigert is a young veteran, a local boy, and a total enigma. If Smith and/or Pearson are cut loose, keep an eye on Schweigert as a rotational guy.

Lamarcus Hicks (bottom line): second-year guy who spent 2008 on and off the practice squad. Doesn't look to have much impact for 2009.

SUMMARY: Safety is another enigma position for the Lions. The ideal situation is that Gerald Alexander recovers his 2007 form, and he mans the free safety spot while Bullocks holds down the strong side. That would give the Lions two young, athletic, experienced safeties for years to come. However, if Alexander cannot return to that level of play, he'll be backing up Bullocks at the free spot instead. I have to assume that Dwight Smith and his $2.3M cap number will be hitting the road. That leaves Pearson and Schweigert to battle it out for the strongside spot--and while they each have some upside, I'd much rather see a healthy Schweigert play up to his potential. While there are some question marks here, this is the area of the defense that needs the least help. If the Lions drafted safety, I would want to see a Sunday pick (rounds 4-6) with some serious speed and kick return credentials.

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