Three Cups Deep: Preseason Wk. 1, Cleveland Browns

. . . and once again, there was Lions football.

The Lions faced off against the Browns on Friday. Ford Field was packed to the brim with season ticket holders on family vacation, such as myself. Nevertheless, those who were there made plenty of noise in close junctures—of which there were many, because neither offense did much against either defense.

For all the horribleness of the Cleveland Browns in general, their defense was in fact outstanding last season: they had the fifth-best scoring defense in the NFL. When you consider that defense was paired with a 30th-ranked (i.e., second-worst) offense, it’s even more impressive. It shouldn’t be too surprising, then, that a cagey don’t-show-too-much-or-risk-too-much effort from Stafford & Co. didn’t result in much scoring.

It also shouldn't be a surprise that the defensive line hassled Brandon Weeden something fierce. It shouldn’t be a surprise that without Trent Richardson, the Browns couldn’t run the ball well. Unfortunately, it also shouldn’t be a surprise that once the backup secondary and linebackers were in, discipline in zone coverage and screens was severely lacking.

Seneca Wallace’s ability to extend plays resulted in frequent breakdowns, allowing the Browns to move the ball much more effectively in the second half. That, combined with Kellen Moore’s inability to find and deliver the ball to a downfield receiver, denied the Lions their eighth straight preseason victory.

It wasn’t good enough, was it?

As we know from 2008, thrilling fourth-quarter preseason comebacks usually mean the losing team didn’t care enough; so it seemed with the Lions. Matthew Stafford, about whom the press has been flat-out gushing all offseason long, threw an ugly ball off his back foot as he fell away from pressure that wasn’t so much there; Brandon Pettigrew ran the wrong route and the ball was picked off.

The players with something to prove took it seriously, and made an impact: Willie Young looked incredible, Bill Bentley had a pick (and should have had another), Keiland Williams continued his excellent camp form and Joique Bell showed why he’s been a camp sensation wherever he’s camped.

But some of those who had nothing to prove played like it; it looked like the offense was both executionally and playcallingly mailing it in. Against the stiffer-than-you might think Browns defense, the results were disappointing, especially from the passing game. However, the running game showed up for all four quarters. Kevin Smith opened the game with a nine-yard carry; by the end of the day Smith, Williams, Bell and Stefan Logan combined for 198 yards on 33 carries (exactly 6.0 YpC).

Special note has to be made of the offensive line here: the right side of the line, especially Gosder Cherilus, looked excellent, and the extra weight Rob Sims has chosen to carry shows in his ability to hold his ground at the point of attack. There was daylight for the backs, inside and outside, when it was mostly-starters against mostly-starters; that daylight waxed and waned as players subbed in and out on both sides, but on the whole it was a marked improvement from 2011.

The caveat to this is the play of Jeff Backus. Backus injured his thumb in camp; I have no idea to what extent that limited him on Friday but he didn’t look like himself. He was inconsistent against the run and the pass—sometimes he looked solid, others overwhelmed. He gave up the inside rush on the Stafford interception; the DE simply went to his inside shoulder and he wasn’t prepared. Backus tried everything once he was beaten, but he was beaten too easily.

The other concern is the second- and third-string back seven’s defense against screens and broken plays. This was an old Achilles heel of pre-Schwartz Lions defenses, but I thought this system was inherently stouter against such things. The lack of discipline in the second half was both obvious and lethal. Colt McCoy and Seneca Wallace simply did too much damage, even considering they were doing it against backups.

So the Edmund Fitzgerald Trophy returns to the shores of Lake Erie for a year; in the long run that doesn’t matter. Here’s what does matter: 1) as a gestalt, the running game is improved, 2) as a gestalt, the back seven still struggles to make stops, 3) Jeff Backus is not his usual self.

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A Very Serious Talk: The Offensive Line

Okay, it's time to have a Very Serious Talk about the Lions' offensive line.

I've been reading a lot of stuff lately about the offensive line. Let's nail down some facts about last season, so we can move forward like grownups.

The Lions were bad at run blocking last year.

According to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards stat, the Lions had the 31st—2nd-worst—run-blocking unit in the NFL. This will not come as a shock to anyone who, you know, watched the Lions last year. Their 3.70 ALY was well off the league average of 4.08. Their Power Success rate (52%) was ranked 28th, and their Stuffed Percentage (21%) was 25th.

However, the raw YPC by by the Lions' running backs was 4.22; that's just off the NFL average of 4.31. That's the 19th-best pace in the league, packed tightly with a lot of other teams right around the average. Being mediocre at the second level (ranked 21st) and solid in the open field (ranked 14th) shows the Lions' motley crew of backs managed to make things happen on the rare occasions they had daylight.

The Lions weren't really trying to run block last year.

However, let's give that figure a little context. The Lions attempted passes more (666 times) and more often (62.9% of plays) than anyone else in the NFL. The Lions lined up in the shotgun 68% of the time, more than anyone else in the NFL. They carried the ball fewer times (356) than all but one team, and at the rarest rate (33.6) of any team. Though the Lions were undoubtedly going to be a pass-first team in 2011, they almost completely abandoned the traditional run game. Expecting them to be good at it doesn’t make sense.

Perhaps the Lions' interior line isn't comprised of mashers, and the Lions didn't change personnel address that in the offseason. But swapping Dominic Raiola out for a he-man road grader would be making the Lions better at what they did one-third of the time last year at the expense of what they did two-thirds of the time. That's just not smart.

Rob Sims will be better at run blocking this year.

As we saw in the guard Old Mother Hubbard, Rob Sims was one of the best pass-blocking guards in the NFL last season, but well below-average against the run. Sims intentionally added 20 pounds of quality weight from the end of the season to now, and he did it to shore up his anchoring against the run and interior pass rush:

“Last couple years, I’ve been playing really light -- a lot lighter than I’m used to playing, and I felt there were some parts of my game that were affected because of that,” he said. “Mainly, some of the stuff I do on the run and stuff like that, I just didn’t have that pop I was used to. It wasn’t I was just gorging myself and wanted to be 20 extra pounds out there, it’s just that we’ve been having some trouble keeping weight on me throughout the season ,so I wanted to start a little heavier and work my way down.”

Per Dave Birkett, Sims actually dropped below 300 pounds by the end of last season; that’s simply too light for today’s NFL, 68% shotgun notwithstanding. By getting back up to about 320, Sims should have much better luck cracking open seams for Leshoure and Best to pop through.

The Lions will run the ball more this year.

The Lions mostly abandoned the run once they lost Jahvid Best, had one glorious game of healthy Kevin Smith, and then abandoned the run again. Best, Smith, and Mikel Leshoure are all participating in OTAs, which is a fantastic sign. If all are healthy, expect the run game—and under-center snaps—to be a bigger part of the Lions’ playcalling. When you’re setting up to run block, you’ll be more successful at it.

Riley Reiff could provide an immediate boost, or not.

We know from the offensive tackle Old Mother Hubbard that Jeff Backus is an above-average left tackle. We know he began the season with a torn pectoral muscle, and played like it. We know that after the bye week, he played as well as any left tackle in the NFL. We know he tore a bicep against New Orleans in the playoffs; we know he’s supposed to be ready for training camp.

The question here isn’t whether Jeff Backus can play left tackle at a high level, it’s for how long he’ll be able. Ideally, Backus gets healthy and has a great season, and Riley Reiff beings to push him next offseason, or possibly the year after that. Maybe Reiff solidifies the right tackle spot for the second half of this season, and swings over to the left once

It doesn’t sound like that’s the plan, though. As Jim Schwartz said:

"He's a left tackle. He fits the criteria that you want at that position. He's big, tough, he's a former tight end and a three-time state wrestling champ (South Dakota). He comes from a great tradition of offensive linemen at Iowa. He's a good run blocker and a good pass protector. "Even though he is young and will still improve in certain areas, we're not drafting a guy that's a developmental player."

Wow, that sounds almost like he's planning on Reiff pushing Backus from Day One.

"We'll put them all out there and we'll play. Their play in training camp, in the OTAs and in the preseason, that will determine those things, not anything we are thinking right now."

Oh. So that right there is Jim Schwartz opening the competition for a spot  Jeff Backus has had on lockdown for 176 consecutive games. Moreover, it’s him throwing a pretty big bucket of cold water on the notion that Reiff is short-term right tackle help. It’s not to say he won’t moonlight there, of course, but the Lions view Reiff as their left tackle for the medium-, long-, and possibly even short run.

The question is, even if Reiff supplants Backus, will Reiff play any better than Backus? Maybe, maybe not. I couldn’t think of a segue, but Holy Schwartz! regressed PFF blocking grades against offensive tackle arm length and oh man is it worth a click.

Per Football Outsiders, the Lions ran behind Backus 20% of the time. That’s the fourth-highest rate in the NFL; only the Cardinals, Seahawks, Bengals, and Rams ran behind their left tackle more. With an ALY of 3.65, they were only 24th-most effective at running behind the LT, but the Lions clearly trusted Backus much more than the interior or the right side.

Oddly, the Lions were most effective when running behind the right tackle. At 4.22 ALY, they were 20th-best in the NFL, close to the 4.26 league average. So if Riley Reiff is to improve either left tackle spot, he’ll have to be more trustworthy than Jeff Backus all-around, OR the best run-blocker on the line, OR so much better at pass protection than Cherilus that the run blocking doesn’t matter.

The Lions are actually really really good at pass blocking.

I know many Lions fans still freak out about that time Julius Peppers beat Jeff Backus and injured Matthew Stafford, but the Lions dropped back 702 times and allowed only 36 sacks in 2011; that's an Adjusted Sack Rate of 5.9%. That's 10th-best in the NFL. Pro Football Focus graded the Lions at +35.0 in pass protection, 3rd-best in the NFL.

I know for many people pass protection starts and stops with a 6’-4,” 360-pound He-Man Hall of Fame Left Tackle who never ever gives up a sack, ever. But those guys come once or twice in a generation, if at all—and there are four other guys on the line, protecting four pass-rush gaps the left tackle never gets to. The fact is, the Lions do a very good job of keeping Matthew Stafford clean—even though Stafford is exposed more often than any other quarterback in the NFL.

We clear now?

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NFL Free Agency: The Detroit Lions Bunker In

Today at 4:00 pm, NFL free agency begins. For the first time in my memory, there will be no 12:02 am faxes to the league office, or midnight gift-bearing showings-up at houses. Free agency will begin in an orderly fashion, just as office workers everywhere would begin looking for football news on the Internet anyway.

Yesterday a lot of contract-y things happened, the upshot of which is Tom Lewand got the Lions under the cap, as he always does. Unfortunately, he did not get them under enough to sign Cliff Avril or Stephen Tulloch to a long-term deal before the deadline.

Here is the situation with Tully: last offseason, he thought his body of work merited a long-term deal, and it did. But he and the Lions were unable to come to terms, so both sides agreed to a one-year deal. This is known as a “prove it” deal: sign a contract, prove you’re worth big money, then get that big-money deal from whoever’s offering it.

Tulloch did his part; he proved it. As the Old Mother Hubbard showed, Tully was one of the best—and most valuable—inside linebackers in the game in 2011. His performance removes all doubt: he is worth the big money he’s sought for years.

Free agency allows a player to earn his market worth. The problem for Stephen Tulloch is, the market doesn’t think he’s worth a whole lot. As Anwar Richardson pointed out, Tulloch is not being targeted by the teams with big money to spend and a hole at MLB. Whether that’s because he doesn’t fit their system, they like someone better, they don’t think they can afford him, the devaluing of the MLB position in a “base nickel” NFL, or what, I couldn’t tell you.

The upshot of it is, there is no team who needs Stephen Tulloch more than the Detroit Lions—so salary cap notwithstanding, there will be no team willing to pay more than the Detroit Lions.

This is all a thought experiment on my part; no hard news or even rumor fuels it. But the vibe I’m picking up is that once again, Tulloch will need the Lions to need him just as much as they indeed need him . . . but first, he has to know for sure; he has to test the market. That’s fine. If and when he comes back, it will be for good.

Calvin Johnson has been the straw that stirs the Lions’ drink for quite some time, and he is once again today. If he the Lions re-sign him to a long-term deal, it could greatly increase breathing room against the cap—and long-term deals with Tulloch and Cliff Avril become much easier to reach. If not, the Lions can retain Avril at his tendered salary—but Tulloch and the Lions will be in limbo for quite a while.

Jeff Backus is also an unrestricted free agent, both both sides seem exclusively intent on Backus returning. As I said on Twitter, it’s so not even a thing that they’re not even talking about it. In fact, I wonder if the tacit plan is to simply wait until the last of the CJ/Avril/Tulloch/Eric Wright dominoes has fallen and then get Backus some money however they can.

I don’t see the Lions as  players for signing other teams’ free agents. The Lions’ roster has matured; there are only a few select roster spots available on either side of the ball. Further, the lack of cap money means they can’t sign starters—and given the choice, I’m sure the Lions prefer to draft their backups.

So don't plan on any excitement today, Lions fans. The offseason is no longer our Super Bowl; the Super Bowl is our Super Bowl. The Lions need to re-sign their guys as best they can, then draft as wisely as they always do.

. . . now, watch them go sign Mario Williams.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Offensive Tackles

Ah, the offensive tackles. Ever the source of Lions fan frustration, ever the source of Lions fan controversy, ever the source of Lions blogger pageviews. Last season’s Old Mother Hubbarding of the offensive tackles was a pleasant surprise; it concluded that the only need at the position was a possible upgrade over Jason Fox as the Backus’ heir apparent.

Here's what last year's bottom line was for each of the Lions tackles who saw time this year:

Jeff Backus, for the second-straight year, has turned in a solidly-above-average performance at left tackle. His ten-year consecutive games streak is an amazing accomplishment, and he’s playing the best football of his life. The Lions will be fine with him for 2011—but how much tread is left on those tires?

Gosder Cherilus took a huge step forward in 2010—specifically, in Week 4 of 2010. I can’t explain what turned the lightswitch on, but if he recovers from his knee injury and picks up where he left off, Cherlius will be a top ten RT in 2011 and beyond. That’s a big “If,” though.

By only allowing one sack in 271 snaps, Corey Hilliard flashed performance we had no idea was there. He played only better than you’d expect from a 2007 sixth-rounder with very, very few snaps of live action—but you wouldn’t expect much at all, and Hillard was far short of revelatory. I expect him to be in the mix as a backup for 2011, but Hilliard does not appear to be a long-term answer. He is, however, only 25.

This season will be similar, but not the same:

The green line is Jason Peters, Philadelphia’s bookend LT. With the third-best pass block grade (+14.9), second-best run block grade (+10.5), and third-best screen block grade (+2.5), Peters was an outstandingly balanced all-around tackle. With seven flags thrown his way (one declined/offset), he took a very small penalty ding.

Bringing up the rear is the Packers' Marshall Newhouse. A -40.6 overall, the 2010 5th-round pick was as bad against the pass (-21.3) as he was against the run (-17.4). His performance was marked by the worst single-game grade I've ever seen: a -12.4 against Jason Pierre-Paul and the New York Giants.

Jeff Backus was slightly off his 2010 pace, in absolute terms. His -2.0 overall, –0.8 pass block, and –2.5 penalty grades are just below last year’s marks (+1.4, –0.3, +2.5). However, his +0.3 run block, and +1.0 screen block grades are up from last season. The averages, however, are higher; Backus was not as far above average this season as he was last season.

. . . but he is still above average. Backus was the 17th-best left tackle to start most of his teams’ games, and his –2.0 overall is well above the NFL average of –6.0. His –0.8 pass blocking, it won’t surprise, is well below the +4.0 NFL average, but his screen block and run block grades (+1.0, +.03) are right in line with the NFL mean (+0.6, +0.7). He was penalized 11 times, tied for 4th-worst in the NFL . . . though four of those flags were offset or declined.

Statisically, Backus allowed a sack, pressure, or hit once every 24.0 snaps. That ranks him 48th of 76 NFL tackes, below the average of 36.6. As with the other OL positions, we must note that the Lions had the 4th-most offensive snaps and passed more often than any other team, so these results are skewed a little bit—but they reinforce the idea that Backus’s pass-blocking is the weak link in his game.

Update: the good folks at Pro Football Focus encouraged me to, as I almost always do but somehow forgot this time, take a look at Backus' game-by-game breakdown and OH MY GOODNESS:

I knew Backus started the season playing hurt, but didn't seem too far off his career norm. What I missed was his incredible ramp-up over the last half of the year (though I did see how Backus shut down the Saints' Will Smith in Week 16). Many thanks to the PFF staff for pointing this out

Bottom Line: Jeff Backus is an above-average starting left tackle. He is not dominant, but when healthy has played the best football of his life over the last two seasons. He hasn’t missed a start in eleven seasons, which is simultaneously incredible and troubling; how long can he maintain this level of performance? He is an unrestricted free agent, though both sides have publicly confirmed they intend to re-up.

After getting a wake-up call last season, Gosder Cherilus flipped a switch from “horrible” to “amazing.” His first three grades of 2010 were –3.0 or worse; after that he was positive for the remainder of the 2010 season . . . until he broke his knee in Week 13.

The story of Gosder Cherilus’s knee is the great untold story of the Lions’ 2011 season. Late in 2010, Cherilus blew out his knee. On December 17, 2010, Cherilus underwent microfracture surgery, a procedure that typically requires a full year of recovery (and until very recently, possibly a career-ender). March 24, 2011, the Lions anticipated Cherilus being ready for a full schedule of 2011 work, albeit with possibly-permanent pain in the knee.

Gosder started the first game, but committed a brutal late-game penalty against Tampa Bay, triggering a benching for Week 2. Corey Hilliard struggled, so Cherilus got the start in Week 3, at Minnesota. Cherilus was quickly overwhelmed, going back to the bench after just six snaps.. The Grandmaster was not pleased. Quoth Schwartz

We need to improve that position. ... One guy not getting it done on the offensive line makes the whole group look bad.

Unfortunately, Corey Hilliard didn’t get it done either, and Cherilus returned to the starting lineup at Dallas, where he played every snap and graded out at an impressive +1.5. For the remainder of the season he was inconsistent, mostly neutral with two peaks (+3.4 and +2.2 at Denver and Green Bay) and one nasty valley: -6.5 against Minnesota.

From this, we conclude Gosder just can’t block guys in purple.

Overall, Gosder the Gozerian graded out at –6.7, ranked 38th out of 76 tackles in the NFL. In pass blocking, he was ranked an eyelash below Jeff Backus, at –0.9. In run blocking, he was far worse at –7.5. For a player we thing of as a huge angry masher, his run blocking ranked him 61st of 76; that’s flatly awful.

You might want to sit down for this.

After the two cruical penalties in Week 1, Gosder was flagged just two more times all season. Jeff Backus had more penalties declined or offset than Gosder had called on him! Only Marc Colombo and D'Brickashaw Ferguson played as many snaps as Gosder and had fewer penalties. That's saying something.

Bottom Line: Gosder Cherilus was an average starting/rotational tackle in 2011, subpar in pass protection and poor against the run. But he was solid in the screen game—and, after a boneheaded Week 1, displayed gentlemanly play worth of the Lady Byng. Still, more questions than answers: how badly was his knee hurting him? Where did the consistency go? Why can’t he block guys in purple?

After an excellent performance in relief of Cherilus last season, Corey Hillard dramatically regressed to the mean. With just 147 snaps, Hilliard did not meet Pro Football Focus’s minimum cutoff. However, he got painted with a –6.8 grade’s worth of red in that time; a hair lower than Gosder Cherilus (who had seven times as many snaps)!

Hilliard's main problem was pass protection. He allowed a sack, hit, or pressure an average of once every 21.0 snaps; his pass block grade was -3.0. His -4.2 run block grade was slightly better than Gosder's—but again, he accumulated all that negativity on just a few reps. Any notion of Hilliard as a long term swing/rotational/starting tackle has to be shelved for the time being.

Bottom Line: Corey Hilliard had several opportunities in the first three games to overtake Gosder Cherilus, but he couldn’t come close to his 2010 performance. He’ll have to fight Jason Fox, Johnny Culbreath, and any theoretical draftees in camp for a chance at another auditiones.

SHOPPING LIST: Jeff Backus is solid at left tackle, but the Lions must find, and begin grooming, his replacement. Gosder Cherilus remains a mediocre, inconsistent right tackle with maddening potential. The Lions like Jason Fox, but he must get healthy, improve his conditioning, and do it on the field before the Lions name him Backus’s heir, or even Cherilus’s.

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In Defense of the Detroit Lions Offensive line

For decades the Lions offensive line has been a punching bag, both in physical and philosophical terms. This season is no different: fans have howled about the five-sack disaster in Minnesota, the abundance of penalties, and the continued inability to run impressively between the tackles. Nearly every Lions offensive lineman (excepting Rob Sims) has heard calls for his head on a pike, and it’s just barely October.

Line play was always one of the intricacies of the game; secret mojo that casual fans don’t perceive. Certain players or units are so consistently outstanding that analysts take pains to point them out, though, so most fans are dimly aware of “good” and “bad,” especially in terms of the quarterback’s time to throw.

Still, even hardcore fans can’t evaluate the offensive line in one full-speed viewing—at least, not without ignoring stuff like the ball and the outcome of the play. For the most part, fans judge their team’s offensive lines by the totality of their effort: number of sacks, number of penalties, average time to throw, perceived running lanes.

In recent years, though, the explosion of football information—and tools like DVR and NFL Game Rewind—lets us go back and see who really allowed Jared Allen’s sacks. Sort of.

If modern technology and analysis provide fans with a treasure trove of ways to evaluate their teams’ offensive line, what fans lack is any way to objectively compare that performance against others. When Cris Carter insisted Calvin Johnson is not an “elite” wide receiver, I slathered Carter’s good name in statistical napalm and lit a match.

When Lions fans say the offensive line “sucks,” I have few weapons with which to defend their honor—despite being sure the Lions’ line is a solid pass-blocking unit, and not a terrible run-blocking unit either. ESPN’s Ross Tucker explains:

It's not their fault. Or at least not entirely. That is the only logical explanation that can be drawn about the quality of offensive line play at the quarter pole of the NFL season.

Before you assume that this is a column written by a former offensive lineman attempting to absolve his trench brethren of their inadequacies, consider the facts. If close to 75 percent of the fans in the NFL think their teams' offensive line stinks, maybe the problem isn't actually the offensive line but rather what they are being asked to do?

At a minimum, fans and media alike need to look at the number of teams unhappy with offensive line play and realize that maybe this is the new normal. If that is the standard of performance for more than half of the teams in the league, then that is, by definition, the average.

Of course, the Internet’s gold standard in hardcore game footage review and line play evaluation is Pro Football Focus. I looked at the PFF team pass blocking grades over this year, last year, and the year before.

CHART?

Chart.

This is the distribution of PFF team pass block grades for 2009, 2010, and 2011 to date. The X axis is standard deviation from the mean, and the Y axis is the number of teams who fall into the half-standard-deviation tiers. “-3.0” is three standard deviations below the mean, “0” is the mean, and “+3.0” is three standard deviations above the mean.

The first thing that jumps out at you is the way the 2009 line appears to disappear. In fact, 2009 and 2010 had the exact same distribution above the mean: eight teams between the mean and one-half standard deviation above, six teams between +0.5 and +1, five teams between +1 and +1.5, and no teams two standard deviations or more above the mean. In both seasons, then 19 teams were graded above the mean.

In both seasons there was a hearty group of “above average” pass blocking lines; the majority of NFL offensive lines were a little bit better than the mean. On the downside of those two slopes, the distributions are similar. They seesaw with a gap of two or three teams from –0.5 down to –2.5, where they each have one. Both years share an overall shape: a few awful teams, several bad teams, some “meh” teams, then most of the NFL is between “okay” to “good,” with just a few “pretty good” pass-blocking lines and no “very good” or “great” ones.

A quarter of the way through this year, a different shape is emerging. Only 16 teams are grading out above the median, meaning four fewer “good” or “pretty good” pass-blocking lines. The Tennessee Titans are that outlying bump at +2.5; an entire standard deviation above the second-best Buffalo Bills.

After that, though, it’s more bad news: nine teams are at least 1.5 standard deviations below the mean, compared to four in 2010 and six in 2009. That’s 28% of the league’s offensive lines at “bad” or worse!

Now here’s the interesting bit. We see that so far in 2010, there are fewer relatively “good” pass-blocking lines and more relatively “bad” ones. But that’s only relative to each other in the same season. What about year-over-year?

PFF normalizes all of their grades, meaning these grades aren’t just the raw scores. The first season they graded (2008), they adjusted the grades so they averaged out to zero. In subsequent seasons, they’ve normalized their grades with the same factors as from 2008—meaning, grades from 2009 and 2010 and 2011 will compare directly to 2008 (and each other).

Look at 2009’s mean: –0.22, or almost exactly zero. This means that PFF’s raw pass-blocking grades (and in theory, leaguewide pass-blocking performance) was almost identical from 2008 to 2009. But in 2010 that mean dropped to –18.56. In 2009, a team that graded out at –18.56 would have been binned in the “-0.5 to –1.0” tier! If we do an incredibly crude projection of this season’s grades (multiply by four), the average 2011 team will grade out at –24.99, very nearly a full standard deviation below 2009’s mean!

This implies that leaguewide pass blocking performance has declined dramatically from recent norms. Not only has the distribution changed so that more teams are “bad” at pass blocking while fewer are “good,” the standards for “bad” and “good” are noticeably lower. [Ed. – Upon further review, I added a second chart. Was in danger of violating 1 picture/thousand words rule.]

Here’s a better way of seeing the year-over-year change: the 2009 grades are an almost perfect expected distribution between extremes, norms, positives, and negatives. The 2010 grades have a nearly-identical shape, just with an across-the-board decrease. The 2011 grades, though crudely projected, again reflect a change in distribution: there are far more bad-to-awful lines, and far fewer decent-to-good ones.

PFF detractors will be quick to claim this as proof of flaws in their methodology; that’s certainly possible. But it dovetails perfectly with what Ross Tucker has observed: teams are passing at a ridiculous rate, and increasingly using tight ends and running backs as targets, rather than blockers. They’re hanging their offensive linemen out to dry to spread the defense and the ball around the field—and it’s showing in both passing effectiveness, and pass protection grades.

Throughout all three seasons, the Lions haven’t been more than a half a standard deviation off the mean. They were just below league average in 2009, just above it in 2010, and are just below it as we speak. This is the most pessimistic assessment of the Lions pass blocking I could find.

Football Outsiders ranks the Lions' pass protection as third-best in the NFL, with an Adjusted Sack Rate of 2.9%. The New York Life Protection Index currently ranks the Lions’ O-line 7th-best at keeping the quarterback clean. In both cases, they’d likely be topping the charts if it weren’t for the Minnesota game . . . which, given my suspicions about the Vikings’ eternally-rowdy home atmosphere, that really grinds my gears.

Jeff Backus is not Walter Jones. We know this. To our untrained eyes, the pass protection seems “lousy,” and the data suggests that our untrained eyes are absolutely right. But if our “lousy” is just about as good as everyone else’s “lousy,” then it’s not really all that lousy. And, if our “lousy” is really much better than everyone else’s “lousy,” as FO and the NYLPI imply, then we’d better learn to appreciate what we’ve got.

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Jeff Backus, Jared Allen, and Dirty Cheating Vikings

PaulieP (Scottsdale): Colts first time here, do you believe the allegations about pumping in crowd noise? Have you heard the "skip"?

Jeremy Green: (11:10 AM ET ) I don't doubt it. The Vikings used to do it in the 90's when they had very good foootball teams.

Jeremy Green is the son of former Vikings coach Dennis Green. In 2007, after the Colts' CD of crowd noise audibly skipped during a Pats game, the younger Green admitted in an ESPN chat that the Vikings used fake crowd noise, too. Both teams play in domed stadiums, play admittedly loud music, and are famous for unfailingly-loud crowds—but both teams staunchly deny they artificially boost the crowd noise.

CBS ultimately took the fall for the Colts incident, claiming their audio may have fed back somehow; the NFL scrubbed all recordings of the event from the Internet. Green later said it was just, like, his opinion man—one informed only by half his lifetime spent going to Vikings games during his father’s tenure as head coach. As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk said at the time:

Please.

The initial comments from Jeremy Green sure don't read like opinion, and Green's relationship with the head coach at the time puts him in a great situation to know the facts.

The mere fact that Green would try to backpedal in such lame fashion tells us all we need to know.

Then again, Green is now doing hard time for possession of drugs and child pornography, so his character isn’t unimpeachable.

The Lions offensive line had kept Matthew Stafford clean through the first two weeks, allowing zero sacks by either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Kansas City Chiefs. The Bucs and Chiefs have combined for nine sacks across the other four games they’ve played, yet neither bagged Stafford once. Through two weeks, the Lions had the No. 1 Pro Football Focus-graded pass-blocking line in football.

Yet, the line was in disarray against Minnesota: Jeff Backus had one of the worst games of his career, and earned the worst PFF grade (–7.6) they’ve ever assigned him. Backus was flagged for four penalties, including consecutive false starts on a critical fourth-quarter drive. He also got the blame for two sacks and three QB pressures.

Gosder Cherilus was benched after allowing a sack and a pressure in just the first six snaps. Replacement Corey Hilliard didn’t fare much better: he allowed a sack, two hits, and a pressure. Rob Sims also allowed a sack and three pressures; his –4.9 PFF grade was his second-worst-ever (besides the 2008 season opener, when he played through a torn pectoral muscle). Oddly, the two whipping boys of the Lions line—Dom Raiola and Stephen Peterman—had the days’ best grades at –1.1 and +1.1, respectively. Raiola’s pass blocking grade by itself was positive (+0.3)

What happened here? Is Jared Allen that much better than Tamba Hali? Is Kevin Williams that much better than Gerald McCoy? Or might it have something to do with the “crowd” being so loud that Matthew Stafford had both hands pressed over both earholes in the second quarter, trying desperately to hear the radio embedded in his helmet?

Make no mistake: crowd noise is, will, should be a factor in NFL games. During the Kansas City game, when we Lions fans cheered loud enough to draw a timeout or a false start, it was a great feeling knowing we had given our team an advantage. Seahawks fans strongly believe they are “The 12th Man.”

That’s why the Lions veteran line, coached by an experienced coordinator like Scott Linehan, should have been better prepared to deal with the notorious Mall of America noise. The Lions didn’t use max protect against Minnesota’s pass rush, preferring to throw it over the Vikings heads.

Unfortunately, Lions receivers didn’t get open consistently enough to make that approach effective. Nate Burleson, who usually thrives in space underneath, was nearly invisible. It wasn't until Matthew Stafford leaned on Brandon Pettigrew and Titus Young in the second half that the Lions started moving the chains.

Trusting the offensive line to slow Jared Allen and company long enough for Stafford to make the Vikings pay was a gamble. Noise or no, the line clearly didn’t respond the way Lions coaches had hoped. After the game, head coach Jim Schwartz said, “We need to be more effective at [right tackle]. I will just leave it at that.” On Backus, Schwartz’s opinion was similar: “He gets a lot of attention because he's a left tackle. Just in general terms, Jeff can play better and he will play better.”

Ultimately, pointing fingers at Minnesota’s illegal advantage—real or perceived—is folly. Good teams overcome disadvantages like that; they persevere and perforam. No matter what you think of the Vikings’ tactics, Jeff Backus and the offensive line was good enough to pass what might be their toughest test all year: Jared Allen and the Vikings line in one of the toughest road environments in football.

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Our Backus Against The Wall? The Lions’ Tackle Woes

One of the biggest questions about player-led team and individual offseason workouts was, “What happens when somebody gets hurt?” Whether it’s due to the noncontact drills actually being noncontact, or low participation, or less strenuous workouts, there hadn’t yet been a notable injury . . . until yesterday.

According to Dave Birkett of the Freep, Jeff Backus has partially torn his left pectoral muscle, and will be unavailable for the near future—possibly missing however much training camp there is. Birkett has said he’s been told it’s “not serious,” which in Lions-speak means he won’t miss more than one or two regular-season games, if any.

There’s no doubt that offensive line depth is an issue—especially proven offensive line depth the Lions could count on to start a game or two. With Gosder Cherilus a pure right tackle (and recovering from major surgery himself), it’s unlikely they swing him over to the left side. Will the Lions have to make a play for a veteran free agent to hold things together? I think the answer is “no,” for a variety of reasons.

First, Jeff Backus has been the Lions’ starting left tackle for ten years, without fail. That’s 160 consecutive games. He’s played through injuries before, most notably a intercostal rib muscle he tore while warming up right before a game. Granted, he was terrible in that game, but he played—and Backus has weeks, not hours, before he’ll have to suck it up and play this time around. He should be ready to go when it counts.

Second, any veteran free agent the Lions sign is going to know they have no hope of a starting job. Guys like Doug Free and Jared Gaither are looking for places where they can earn a long-term gig; Detroit isn’t that place. Backus is playing the best football of his life right now, signing with Detroit would get a free agent veteran a prime spot on the bench and a bus ticket.

Finally, this might be a blessing in disguise. The Lions need to know what they have in 2010 fourth-round pick Jason Fox; heavy training camp reps against the Lions’ stacked DE corps will help them find out. Rookie seventh-rounder Johnny Culbreath should get a lot more reps, as well—exactly what he needs to help adjust to the speed and power of NFL defensive ends.

Don’t get me wrong, if it’s a blessing in disguise it’s a pretty heavy disguise. I have every confidence in Jeff Backus to do what he needs to do to be out there, but if he’s at any less than his best, the offense will suffer. And, for as much press as the defensive line (deservedly) gets, this team’s identity really is the passing offense. Stafford and the Transformers will be expected to average thirty-or-so points per game, and if Backus is unavailable or ineffectual, that will be a very tough task . . .

. . . but a decade of reliability should have earned Backus our trust. I’d rather the Lions focus on adding talent to the back seven than adding a safety net for Jeff Backus.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,jeff backus,jason fox,gosder cherilus,johnny culbreath,jared gaither,doug free,offensive line,offensive tackles

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Tinderbox: Mlive’s Ndamukong Suh Camp Giveaway

You’ve likely heard Ndamukong Suh is hosting a football camp for kids aged 7 to 12. You may have heard that Mlive.com is giving away two tickets, as well as offering a discount on purchased ones. You may even have already entered in the contest, or bought tickets for your kids. You should still read Phil Zaroo’s column announcing the giveaway. It’s majestic. 

Progress on the labor front continues in the best, if most boring way—quietly. The owners are meeting today in Chicago, and have been told to be ready for it to be a two-day affair. Quote Mike Florio:

The planning undoubtedly relates to the looming effort to persuade most, and preferably all, of the other owners to buy in to the notion that a fair, win-win deal should be finalized, and that any desire to force the players to take a bad deal should be abandoned.

Finally, Lomas Brown recently said Jeff Backus could be an All-Pro guard, which, gee, thanks to Lomas for swatting that hornet’s nest. It’s not that he’s wrong—Lomas was an All-Pro left tackle—as well as a seven-time Pro Bowler, so he knows exactly what it takes. But, at this point, there’s been so much hot air expelled on Backus and whether he passes muster at tackle,  even intelligent, credible discussion on the topic is unwelcome.

Remember when Tom Kowalski mentioned on WDFN that some thought Backus might lack the raw power to play guard?  “Backus is too weak” was the Detroit Lions Internet Meme Du Jour for several weeks. Now, I’m sure everyone is ready to wail and gnash their teeth over what Jeff Backus might have been—instead, let’s focus on what he is:

Brown, 48, who hosts his sixth annual free football camp July 22-23 at Detroit King, said Backus was "one of the top 10 tackles in our league now" but that his physical attributes might necessitate a move before too long.

Interestingly, I’m not seeing a lot of “Lomas Brown Says Jeff Backus is a Top 10 Tackle” headlines this morning.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Offensive Tackles

Note: This is part of an ongoing series; check out the rest of the entries if you dig!

After my review of the centers took a whack at a perennial fan piñata, Dominic Raiola, I’ve been both anticipating and dreading doing this one. Fortunately, I was pleasantly surprised:

The top-PFF-graded NFL left tackle is Andrew Whitworth, who is not that defensive end from the Cardinals from back in the day. A 2006 second-round pick, the 6’-7,” 335-pounder turned in the NFL’s second-best pass block grade, ninth-best run block grade, and best screen block grade. He did take seven penalties, but  even that wasn’t enough to drag him off the top of the heap. At the bottom is Levi Brown, the man he replaced in Cincinnati [Ed. note: that was Levi Jones; thanks to Anonymous Commenter]. Levi turned in an appalling –34.1 pass block grade, while allowing the Cardinals’ sad menagerie of quarterbacks to get flattened.

Of course, the man of the hour is Jeff Backus, and unsurprisingly he’s the Lions’ best offensive tackle. His overall +1.4 grade puts him 21st out of 78 offensive tackles; 13th out of left tackles. His pass block grade slots him 27th, 14th amongst qualifying left tackles. His run block grade is 33rd, 16th amongst left tackles. His four penalties called (one declined/offset) gave him the 8th-best penalty grade in the NFL (5th-best amongst left tackles. You’ll notice that his blue line is solidly above the thick black AVERAGE; that’s correct. Jeff Backus performed like an above-average tackle in 2010.

Backus was 13th amongst left tackles in snaps-per-sack-or-qb-hit-allowed, with 87.2 (NFL avg. 83). He was  21st amongst left tackles in snaps-per-pressure-allowed, with 34.3 (NFL avg. 41). That’s the only dimension of Jeff Backus’ game where he wasn’t above both the mean and median for either all offensive tackles, or left tackles only: he has a below-average-but-not-awful pressures-allowed rate. Whew.

Digging into the individual-game grades a little bit, Backus (predictably) was graded either weakly or strongly positive in all but five games. His five negative grades, were: –1.0, –1.5, –1.5, –2.1, –2.6, and a nasty –5.4 against Buffalo, of all teams. From Week 4 (@GBP) through Week 10 (@BUF), Backus turned in a positive pass block grade of +1.0 or better for all but one game. (+0.1, v. WAS). That’s right, even in only truly bad game, Backus was strongly positive in pass protection. He (along with the rest of the line) was awful at run blocking that data, though (-5.1), and he was assessed two penalties. Other than that, though, Backus was mostly positive or neutral across the board.

Bottom Line: Jeff Backus, for the second-straight year, has turned in a solidly-above-average performance at left tackle. His ten-year consecutive games streak is an amazing accomplishment, and he’s playing the best football of his life. The Lions will be fine with him for 2011—but how much tread is left on those tires?

As the offense’s answer to Cliff “It Would Be So Sweet if This Guy Stepped Up” Avril, Gosder Cherilus answered the bell, if not with the same aplomb his defensive counterpart did. Cherilus was PFF’s 27th-best-graded offensive tackle in 2010, 13th-best if you’re counting only right tackles. HIs +0.5 pass block grade slotted him 26th-best (12th-best amongst RTs)—very slightly better than Backus! Gosder’s –2.7 run-block grade was only 42nd-best out of 78 OTs, though, and 18th-best of right-siders. PFF only has him credited with five penalties (one declined/offset), though, so his penalty rating was right about average—great news for those of us with random bald spots from pulling our hair out.

Statistically, Gosder has a nice feather for his cap: he averaged 120.9 snaps per QB sack or hit allowed! This is the 13th-best mark overall, and 9th-best amongst right tackles. Like Backus, though, he allows a lot of pressures; one every 31.3 snaps, on the average. That’s 48th-best amongst all tackles, 20th-best amongst primary RTs.

Gosder's individual-game grades are fascinating. For the first three games, he turned in horrific grades of –4.6, –3.0, and –4.9. After that, he was a stud. He turned eight straight games without a negative pass block, run block, or overall grade. He was strongly positive overall for six of those eight games. In the ninth game, against Chicago, Gosder had a tough time run blocking (-1.1), which brought down his overall grade for that week to –1.0. I thought Rob Sims’ grades had a noticeable “slump” in them, but this is incredibly dramatic; like night and day. I have no idea what happened after Week 3, but Gosder’s performance went from practice-squad material to top ten RT stuff.

Bottom Line: Gosder took a huge step forward in 2010—specifically, in Week 4 of 2010. I can’t explain what turned the lightswitch on, but if he recovers from his knee injury and picks up where he left off, Cherlius will be a top ten RT in 2011 and beyond. That’s a big “If,” though.

One of the biggest surprises of the year was backup RT Corey Hilliard, who came in cold in relief of Cherilus on Thanksgiving and turned in an impressive +1.7 grade on just 33 reps. I remember him playing a pretty good game the following week against Green Bay, too, but the PFF graders handed him a –1.8, due to a –2.0 pass block mark. He was given an overall negative grade for every game thereafter, too. His only positive grade of any sort after that New England game was his +1.9 run block grade against Tampa—negated in the overall grade by five pressures allowed, and two penalties assessed.

Bottom Line: by only allowing one sack in 271 snaps, Corey Hilliard flashed performance we had no idea was there. He played only better than you’d expect from a 2007 sixth-rounder with very, very few snaps of live action—but you wouldn’t expect much at all, and Hillard was far short of revelatory. I expect him to be in the mix as a backup for 2011, but Hilliard does not appear to be a long-term answer. He is, however, only 25.

Rookie fourth-round draft pick Jason Fox only saw the field for 26 snaps, in Week 17. A natural left tackle, Fox played out of position at RT. He didn’t surrender any QB sacks or hits, and only one pressure—but his run blocking was abysmal, graded out at a horrendous –4.0 by PFF. All the talk about him needing to develop his body, build strength in the weight room, and all that sure rings true.

Bottom Line: Fox was a project pick, and we knew that at the time. He will definitely be in the mix as a swing backup, but you cannot “pencil him in” as either the left, or right, tackle of the future just yet.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions need a long-term heir apparent to Jeff Backus at left tackle, one who can fill in for Gosder Cherilus if his rehab falls behind schedule.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,jeff backus,gosder cherilus,team needs

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Tinderbox: NFL Mediation, and the Draft

Well, the one eventuality I didn’t prepare myself for was the one that occurred: Judge Nelson decided to take a couple of weeks to mull it over. Meanwhile, she urged both parties to continue talks in hope of reaching a settlement. As you all likely saw, the NFL invited the players to return to the FMCS and resume collective bargaining under federal mediator George Cohen; the players—who, no longer unionized, can’t collectively bargain—invited the NFL to negotiate a settlement presided by Judge Nelson herself.

After some po-tay-to/po-tah-to back and forth, Judge Nelson will host a conference call today to settle the issue of where and how mediation will occur. I applaud the league for offering written assurances that these talks will in no way be used against the players as the lawsuit goes forward. It’s a clear sign that both sides truly want an agreement. I also applaud Judge Nelson for giving the sides another chance to settle it like grownups, before she gets out the wooden spoon and starts paddling heinies.

Among many more important things, I worried that government shutdown would prevent federal mediation. However, Gabe Feldman, director of Tulane's Sports Law program, says George Cohen would be available to mediate even in event the Republicans and Democrats prove even harder to bring together than the NFL and NFLPA*.

The Net Rat deconstructed the idea that Lions should draft an offensive tackle 13th overall. He goes point-by-point: the Lions’ line was quite good at pass protection, none of the available tackles will be an immediate upgrade, a rookie may not be as ready as Fox or Hilliard, and it’s unlikely that only one of Backus, Cherilus, Fox, Hilliard, and Ugoh will be able to play at a high level this year. I agree with all of this.

Here’s what the case for an OT (and, for that matter, a DE) boils down to: there will surely be a couple of very good ones available when the Lions pick. Year after year, the Lions have passed on taking an OT with truly elite size and athleticism, because they had more pressing needs elsewhere. Time after time, Lions fans decried the wasted opportunity . . . now, one may fall in their lap.

I believe the situation is perfect for a guy like Colorado’s Nate Solder. He possesses that magically rare combination of huge frame (6’-8”, 319) and incredible athleticism—but he needs time to develop bulk and technique. If he were a little more developed, and a careerlong OT instead of a converted TE, he’d likely not make it out of the top five. Instead, he’s a project with the potential to not only replace Backus in a few years, but be the kind of elite blindside guardian Lions fans have craved ever since Lomas Brown.

Don't get this twisted; I'm not saying the Lions NEED to draft an offensive tackle, or even Solder specifically. I’m saying Backus’ consecutive-start streak, Gosder Cherilus’ knee, and Jason Fox’s development, are things the Lions can’t bet on beyond 2011. There is a need for a long-term solution, and—if everything goes to plan—the Lions  won’t be drafting high enough to net an OT with Solder’s tools for a long, long time.

One last bit of business: I have to take time out to plug my friends over at Sideline Scouting. They’re a bunch of fanatical fans, like me, who’ve been putting their nose to the grindstone and churning out excellent draft guides year after year. The 2011 edition of Sideline Scouting’s draft preview is 391 pages, over 32 megabytes, and just $5.00. I love their work, I use their guide extensively as a reference, every year, and I recommend you do so, too.

Technorati Tags: nfl,nfl mediation,nfl lockout,jeff backus,nate solder,gosder cherilus

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Detroit Lions Offensive Line Analysis: Part I

In the 1993 offseason, the Lions attempted to compensate for the tragic death of All-Pro guard Eric Andolsek—and freak paralysis of G Mike Utley—by signing three free agent linemen: Dave Lutz, Bill Fralic, and Dave Richards.  I clearly remember the newspaper headline that echoed a quote from a coach: “Lions Add ‘900 Pounds of Beef’.”  The gambit didn’t work, and the Lions have been frantically sandbagging the offensive line ever since.

Those who’ve been reading since the beginning might remember that I wrote about that memory last spring, while contemplating the additions of Gosder Cherilus, George Foster, Jon Jansen, Ephraim Salaam, and Daniel Loper over the preceding year.  Four of those five are gone—yet I’ve noted several times this season that the offensive line is better than you think it is, especially in pass protection.  Many have rampantly bashed Cherilus, as well as usual suspects like Backus and Raiola all year long.  Many and called for drastic action to overhaul the offensive line, theoretically to protect the Lions’ investment in Matthew Stafford.  Few, however, seem to realize that the Lions’ O-line is keeping its quarterbacks clean as well as any in the NFL.

Sean Jensen, Bears writer for the Chicago Sun-Times, posted the latest “New York Life Protection Index” stats, while lamenting the Bears’ position on that table (dead last).  This metric, per the creators:

“ . . . was created by sports information leader STATS to provide a composite gauge for this undervalued component of the game. While the New York Life Protection Index is calculated using a proprietary formula, the fundamentals are comprised of the length of a team’s pass attempts combined with penalties by offensive linemen, sacks allowed and quarterback hurries and knockdowns.”

Okay, so check out the New York Life Protection Index, and check out where the Lions rate: ninth.  Ninth?  Yes: ninth-best in the NFL, first-best in the NFC North.  Yes, in pass protection.  Yes, the Lions.  I’m tempted to crow about how all of my suspicions have been confirmed, and how my own eyes have been seeing the truth while all others’ have been clouded with lies and suspicion, and on and on and on, except . . .

The Colts are first.  The Colts, whose profound struggles on the offensive line are a matter of fact, are ranked #1 by this metric.  This reminds me of that year the Lions allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL, at least in part because Joey Harrington was throwing the ball into the stands on every third dropback.  Something similar has to be happening here with Peyton Manning and the Colts’ patchwork line . . . but how do we capture it?  Let’s examine another advanced offensive line metric, one that’s far less of a “black box.”

Football Outsiders’ Offensive Line Rankings feature a variety of interesting stats.  First and foremost, there’s Adjusted Line Yards, which their attempt to mathematically isolate yards gained because the offensive line got good push from yard gained because the running back broke a play open.  The mathematical methods Football Outsiders uses to isolate offensive line yards are detailed here, but for now let’s just see how the Lions stack up.

• Adjusted Line Yards: 3.25 per carry, ranked dead last in the NFL.
• Power Success: 59%, ranked 17th in the NFL.
• Stuffed: 25%, ranked 27th in the NFL.
• 2nd Level Yards: 1.00, ranked 25th in the NFL.
• Open Field Yards: 0.43, ranked 28th in the NFL.

So, the Lions’s offensive line isn’t doing great; it’s actually the worst run-blocking line in football.  Detroit running backs have the least daylight to work with of any in the NFL.  This, unlike the Colts being #1 in pass protection, jibes with what we’ve seen on the field.  But Football Outsiders’ ALY stat can drill down even deeper.  They’ve actually broken down the Adjusted Line Yards by gap: “A” gap (between center and either guard), left and right “B” gap (between guard and tackle), and “C” gap (outside tackle/between OT & TE).  Here’s what they came up with for the Lions:

		L END		L TACKLE		C/GUARD		R TACKLE		R END
RNK	TEAM	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk
32	DET	4.65	13	3.7	25	3.33	30	2.73	32	1.61	32
-	NFL	4.31	-	4.19	-	4.06	-	4.03	-	4.06	-

This table has two rows: the Lions, and the NFL average.  Working from left to right, we see that runs to the outside of Jeff Backus, or between Backus and the tight end, get the benefit of slightly-above-average run blocking.  Runs between Backus and Sims have get below-average help from the line.  Runs on either side of Dominic Raiola get poor help from the offensive line, runs between Stephen Peterman and Gosder Cherilus are at a steep disadvantage to the rest of the NFL, and . . . well, just don’t run to the outside of Gosder.

This is both surprising and unsurprising.  First, remember when the Lions passed on Michael Oher to take Brandon Pettigrew?  Some subscribed to the notion that Pettigrew’s size and blocking would result in improved pass protection and running lanes anyway—getting “offensive line help” without actually drafting a lineman.  Football Outsiders’ stats show this is exactly what’s happening, which is surprising and exciting.  What isn’t surprising is the total lack of daylight in the A gaps.  Stephen Peterman has been playing hurt, and Lord do we ever see it here.  And Gosder?  I had no idea the Lions were struggling so much to run behind him.  These numbers are flatly appalling for a 6’-7”, 325-pound RT with a legendary mean streak.

Okay, so the left side of the Lions' line is average at run blocking, and the center and right side are butt-naked last in the NFL.  So how did the Lions end up with the ninth-best offensive line by the New York Life Protection Index?  Well, because that looked only at pass protection.  Well, what does Football Outsiders have to say about pass blocking?

Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR)/Sack Rate: Sack Rate represents sacks divided by pass plays, which include passes, sacks, and aborted snaps. It is a better measure of pass blocking than total sacks because it takes into account how often an offense passes the ball. Adjusted Sack Rate adds adjustments for opponent quality, as well as down and distance (sacks are more common on third down, especially third-and-long).

The Lions rank 4th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, having allowed just 24 sacks while passing constantly against tough competition.  Above them are the Saints, the Giants, and . . . at number one . . . the Colts.  Okay, so this metric has its limitations, too—it’s still derived almost entirely from sacks.  Clearly, we can’t just measure pass protection by sacks allowed, because sacks are as often taken by quarterbacks as they are allowed by the offensive line.  Aaron Schatz ended the 2003 “Fun With Sacks” article where he conceived of Adjusted Sack Rate with the following plea:

Consider this a public request: If you have an idea for another statistic to measure pass blocking/pass rushing, please let me know. The never-ending quest for knowledge marches forward!

Coming up in Part II: we march.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,jeff backus,rob sims,dominic raiola,stephen peterman,gosder cherilus,football outsiders,analysis

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Tinderbox: Watchtower today!

I’m working feverishly on the Watchtower post; I’m being tripped up because both Giants coordinators have run, or been taught under, several distinct schemes.  I’m trying to figure out what’s relevant data and what isn’t.  In the meantime, here are some excellent links to tide you over:

Dave Birkett of the Free Press wrote a great piece on C.C. Brown's understanding of Eli Manning's game. I'd forgotten that C. C. played with the Giants last year, and has seen an awful lot of reps against Eli.

Tim Twentyman wrote a nice story for the Detroit News about Jeff Backus, and his 150-game starting streak.  Backus has overcome a lot of physical adversity, yes, but this season has also wrestled with some serious personal stress.  Definitely worth a read.

Big Al of The Wayne  Fontes Experience did a cool Q&A with UltimateNYG, Bloguin’s Giants blog.  They have not forgotten that C. C. Brown played for their favorite team last year.  Also, they have similar feelings to my own about their OC, Kevin Gilbride.

If you haven't been following the Adventures of the Great Willie Young, Armchair Linebacker's chronicling of Lions DE Willie Young's epic feats throughout human history, the latest installment reveals Willie’s adventures in the heart of 8th-century China.  Fair warning: Willie (according to the legendary tale of his epic legend) was involved in some seriously not-family-friendly stuff, so if that kind of thing isn’t your thing, don’t bother.

EDIT TO ADD: Oh, one more thing. I don't have a Homecoming post up yet—but this is Homecoming Weekend for Michigan State.  So, if you’re in to MSU football, check out my new MSU football blog, A Beautiful Day for Football.  Wolverines, fret not: I’ll keep TLiW Spartan-free.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new york giants

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