C. C. Brown: Lions “Address” Safety Position

When it became known that the Lions had signed safety C. C. Brown, I immediately received condolences from Texans fans.

Despite this inauspicious beginning, I held out hope that Brown would be the kind of post-draft signing who could play a vital role.  Not a difference-maker, per se, but as a gap-closer between Marvin White and an average NFL starter, Brown could make a difference.  Even mildly strengthening the defense’s weakest link, which is also the last line of said defense, could strongly improve the unit’s overall level of play.

Well, according to Pro Football Focus’s safety film grades, C. C. Brown is an improvement over Marvin White, but only a miniscule one: Brown graded as the 76th-best of 87 safeties, and White finished 86th of those same 87.  I’ll leave it to them to explain how their grading system works, but essentially, players are graded on each play as to whether their performance is above or below an average performance for an NFL starter.

Glancing at the ordinal ranking, Brown and White are both terrible; we can safely put any hope that Brown will be a significant upgrade out with the trash.  But take a closer look at the actual data: over a greater amount of snaps (490 to 452), C. C.’s play earned a grade of negative 10.5, meaning that the balance of positive plays and negative plays swung him 10.5 points below the average for his position.  Marvin White’s grade was –21.6.

You can see in the data that C. C. was terrible in coverage, grading out at –10.6 in pass coverage assignments.  This is consistent with the most vocal criticism of his play.  However, he was +2.1 against the run, tied for 26th-best, just 0.1 behind 25th-ranked Louis Delmas.  Meanwhile, Marvin White was terrible everywhere: –14.2 in coverage, and –5.7 against the run.

Now, these grades aren't authoritiative, by any means: they're produced by passionate fans reviewing TV broadcasts.  But it gives you a lot more legitimate idea of Brown’s limitations than “he sucks”.  We see that Brown was indeed a major liability in coverage, but not as bad as White was.  Further, Brown was actually quite good against the run.  Now, for the wet blanket: Marquand Manuel and Ko Simpson, with 354 and 321 snaps, respectively, graded out much better than either Brown or White at–2.6 and –4.8 overall, respectively.

The next clue as to Brown's worth comes in his contract: he has a one-year contract with an undisclosed (likely minimal) salary.  We can see that he wasn’t brought in to start, but to compete.  Quoth The Grandmaster:

The one area that we probably still have more work to do is the secondary.  It is wide open in a lot of areas . . . We've got a lot of guys who have played a lot of football in the NFL, and they're all at that stage where they need to grab ahold of a starting position and hold onto it and not just be a part-time player or a bit player.

I’m left with an empty feeling here.  Between Brown, Manuel, Simpson, White, and Bullocks, only Bullocks hasn’t thoroughly proven himself to be a substandard NFL safety.  Bullocks is a human question mark: if a crazed, haggard man claiming to be from the future stopped me on a street corner today and told me Daniel Bullocks will to the Pro Bowl this year, I could see it.  If the same man stopped me today and told me Daniel Bullocks will be cut tomorrow, I could see it.

If Bullocks steps up and takes the job, I'll be thrilled; Bullocks and Delmas will make an excellent, young, athletic safety pair.  If it’s anybody else, or a platoon, this is going to be another yearlong headache of long runs and passes blowing games wide open.  C. C. Brown will be in the mix, I’m sure, and he’s certainly better than White . . . but anyone expecting him to step in and play well, or even be the odds-on favorite to start, is kidding themselves.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,c. c. brown,houston texans,new york giants

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have the Lions left the safety off?

A few days ago, the excellent Chrissie Wywrot of the official Lions site penned a piece on embattled safety Daniel Bullocks.  It almost seemed like a direct challenge to recent articles by Mlive.com’s Tom Kowalski and the Detroit News’s John Niyo suggesting that Bullocks is simply not in the mix to start next to rookie Louis Delmas.  Wywrot discloses something only hinted at before: Bullocks never really recovered from the blown ACL that sidelined him in 2007. 

Safety play is something difficult for the HDTV-deprived fan to quantify (thanks, 4:3 aspect ratio!).  We see the strong safety come up and lay the lumber, and we see big interceptions.  Sometimes, on replays from alternate angles, we can see a safety get beat deep.  However, unlike front-seven defenders, it’s impossible for the average fan to simply watch a safety for a snap, or series of snaps, to see how they’re doing.  Therefore, when it comes to ‘grading out’ a safety, we’re beholden to those who have access to game film.  Kowalski’s sources tell him that Bullocks’ angles were all wrong in 2008, and that the fluidity, quickness, and aggressiveness he displayed in 2006 appeared to be “gone”.  Killer added that when a defense gives up many long runs (as the Lions did in 2008), that’s often the result of poor safety play.

Interestingly, the Niyo piece I linked above appears to have been edited.  Here is the original quote, as snagged from The Den, Scout.com’s Lions forum: Correction: the below quote is actually from rotoworld.com, adding their own analysis to Niyo's.  The article linked above is apparently as it was first published.

“Gerald Alexander and Kalvin Pearson split time at strong safety with the Lions first-team defense during Tuesday's minicamp.  While rookie Louis Delmas is locked in at free safety, the new coaching staff has been less than content with its option at strong safety. They no longer see Daniel Bullocks as a starter, and free agent Marquand Manuel was recently brought on board as another option.”

This jibes with the other reports: the post-trade safety pecking order has Pearson and Manuel splitting time with the ones—but Pearson is thought of as a valuable backup, but too athletically limited to be a starter in the Lions’ new symmetrical defense.  This leaves the door wide open for Bullocks—but Bullocks has to recover his physical skills, rebuild his confidence in those skills, learn the new system, and then incorporate it all, so he can play as aggressively and instinctually as he did his rookie year.  Both from published reports, and my talks with some folks in the know, it sounds like he’s got about 1.5 out of 4 down pat right now—and an uphill climb to be relevant this fall.

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old mother hubbard: the safeties

Finally, we come the last installment of my roster evaluation--defensively speaking, anyway. The Safeties are supposed to be the last line of defense, yet far too often the Lions safeties were the only line of defense.

Daniel Bullocks: Bullocks was a second-round pick in the 2006 draft; the 6'-0", 212-pounder had starred at Nebraska, manning the safety position his twin brother Josh. Bullocks came out hot his rookie year--in his first start (Week 2 @ GB), he racked up 12 tackles (8 solo) and two passes defensed. He finished the year with 74 tackles, a sack, and 3 passes defensed--this in 15 games and 7 starts! Bullocks looked like he was set to be a fixture at safety for the Lions for a long, long time. However, in the third preseason game of 2007, he blew out his knee, and was lost for the year. His intense rehab efforts and successful comeback for the 2008 preseason earned him the Lions' Ed Block Courage Award. Coming into the 2008 regular season, we didn't know how much Bullocks would or could contribute--well, the answer was "a lot". Despite the presence of free agent signee Dwight Smith, as well as (for a while) 2007 rookie standout Gerald Alexander, Bullocks had a great statistical year. Finishing third on the team with 121 tackles (74 solo), Bullocks established himself as an energetic force. He's althetic enough to play either spot--but he loves to hit, so he's a slightly more natural strong safety. However, due to the emergence of Kalvin Pearson, he finished the season starting at the free safety spot. Bullocks showed no signs of being slowed by the knee injury, even while playing more in coverage, and with his 2008 performance he solidified his position as one of the few defensive building blocks the Lions have. Bottom line: Bullocks is a talenteed young safety who plays with athleticism, but likes to get his nose in the pile. Should be an asset for years to come.

Gerald Alexander: The third of three 2007 Lions second-round picks, Gerald Alexander was one of the vaunted Boise State Broncos who took out Oklahoma in the '06-'07 Fiesta Bowl. A giant-killer, yes, but no dwarf at 6'-0", 204, Alexander was pressed into starting duty when Daniel Bullocks' knee imploded. Alexander quickly found confidence: in Week 2 against Minnesota, he garnered 5 solo tackles, two passes defensed, and a interception, which he returned for 34 yards. He started the rest of the way after that, ending up with 81 tackles (59 solo), 2 sacks, and two INTs. Alexander's precocious field awareness and obvious athletcism made it look like the Lions had their free safety of the future in hand. With the ancipated return of Daniel Bullocks, it seemed like the Lions were set for 2008 and beyond at the safety position. However, in the 2008 preseason, something was obviously wrong. Alexander looked tentative, hesitant. Instead of making plays, he was a step (or two, or three) late. He whiffed on tackles. He looked nothing like the star-in-the-making we'd seen in 2007. He started the first preseason game, but was benched in favor of the fully-healed Daniel Bullocks. He made some appearances in rotation, but had just seven tackles in five games. He suffered a neck injury in the 4th quarter against Minnesota which would require surgery. He was placed on IR, ending his season. Bottom Line: Alexander is either a talented young free safety who, along with Bullocks, will be be a feared element of the Lions defense--or not. Only time will tell.

Kalvin Pearson: Brought in as a special teams standout, and Tampa 2 "system" depth (as Bullocks was still recovering), Pearson almost immediately shamed himself, and the Lions organization, by getting arrested for choking a woman pregnant with his child. Many fans, including myself, wanted this guy immediately released from the team. He was released--on bond--and attended minicamps as if nothing had ever happened. The felony charges were eventually dropped (possible interpretation: the woman was paid enough money to shut up), and Pearson was instead indicted with misdemeanor charges of 'obstructing or resisting a police office without violence', the hearing for which he was not required to even attend.

. . . I'm sure that's all on the up-and-up.

Anyway, Pearson, as both a probable scumbag and another of Marinelli's mass import of Tampa castoffs, had a long way to go to endear himself to Lions fans. At first, behind Bullocks, Alexander, and Dwight Smith, Pearson rarely saw the field when there weren't kickers or punters out there with him. However, as the painfully thin Lions secondary got thinner with the injury to Keith Smith, Pearson started to play nickel corner. His stout build (5'-10", 200 lbs.), great tackling ability, and good short-zone coverage skills made him a better T2 nickel than any of the other corners. When Smith got hurt, Pearson became the starting strong safety, and Bullocks slid over to free. In Week 9, his second as the starter, Pearson had a monster game, posting 10 solo tackles. Much to my chagrin, Pearson continued to be a rare and valuable playmaker on the Lions'd D, finishing with 83 tackles, 1 sack, 4 forced fumbles and 4 passes defensed. This in just 10 starts as a strong safety. Pearson is limited athletically, but as a strong safety he's an undeniable asset to the roster. Bottom line: Pearson is a great special-teamer and was suprisingly effective as a strong safety. He's not a long-term top-flite starter, but on this roster he's no worse than a valuable rotational guy. Still, a nasty injury to, or the unexpected release of, this jerk wouldn't be the worst news I ever heard.

Dwight Smith: Smith was another Tampa 2 system guy, one who'd been an important cog in those early-aughts Bucs defenses. Most recently, however, Smith played for the franchise where the "Tampa" 2 actually originated--Minnesota. In 14 games (13 starts) in Mike Tomlin's Tampa 2 system, Smith did his ballhawking thing, intercepting four passes (returning one 93 yards for a TD), and defending 9 others. It was hoped that Smith could rotate in with Bullocks and Alexander, play some nickel corner, and generate some turnovers--as well as provide needed veteran depth and leadership. However, partly due to Alexander's failures at free safety, Smith ended up starting Week 1 at strong safety. He was fairly productive at first, but by the time he injured his foot against Houston, he wasn't making much impact. Kalvin Pearson took over, and by the time Smith came back he was relegated to the bench. Bottom line: Smith was expected to be a playmaker in rotation, but instead he was an unremarkable starter. Pearson made him irrelevant, and he will likely be released in the offseason.

Stuart Schweigert: One of the more interesting street free agents I've ever seen. Schweiger hails from Saginaw, and played college ball at Purdue. The Raiders drafted him in the third round of the 2004 draft, and he immediately saw time. By 2005, he was starting, and his 6'-2", 205 lb. frame got 87 tackles (70 solo), 2 INTs, and 7 passes defensed that year. He started all of 2006, racking up a career-high 107 tackles, and then in 2007 . . . he started off at his usual pace, and then got hurt. Schweigert played only part time the rest of the way. He went throught he offseason with the Raiders, only to see the writing on the wall when the Raiders drafted Michael Huff. Scheweigert sounds off about it here. I don't understand how a 27-year-old, former third-round-pick safety who's played at a high level gets cut, then gets no interest until the 0-10 Lions are desperate for a warm body. Schweigert was only got on the field for the Lions in Week 12, and then played only sparingly. At this point, we have no idea what he can do. Bottom line: Schweigert is a young veteran, a local boy, and a total enigma. If Smith and/or Pearson are cut loose, keep an eye on Schweigert as a rotational guy.

Lamarcus Hicks (bottom line): second-year guy who spent 2008 on and off the practice squad. Doesn't look to have much impact for 2009.

SUMMARY: Safety is another enigma position for the Lions. The ideal situation is that Gerald Alexander recovers his 2007 form, and he mans the free safety spot while Bullocks holds down the strong side. That would give the Lions two young, athletic, experienced safeties for years to come. However, if Alexander cannot return to that level of play, he'll be backing up Bullocks at the free spot instead. I have to assume that Dwight Smith and his $2.3M cap number will be hitting the road. That leaves Pearson and Schweigert to battle it out for the strongside spot--and while they each have some upside, I'd much rather see a healthy Schweigert play up to his potential. While there are some question marks here, this is the area of the defense that needs the least help. If the Lions drafted safety, I would want to see a Sunday pick (rounds 4-6) with some serious speed and kick return credentials.

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