The blazing heat of the summer sun’s rays drill through me; the sweltering blanket of humidity smothers everything. Scorched grass crunches underfoot as I mop sweat off my brow with sweat from my arm. The air is pregnant with steamy moisture while plants lay dead from lack of water. Everywhere, there is radiant heat. Everywhere, there is blinding light.
Everywhere but the blue bonfire.
With a grunt, I drop the handles of the wheelbarrow I rolled here. Shielding my eyes with my hand, I take stock: a decent-sized flame flickers languidly on the ashes of what was recently a towering pillar of fire. A few empty mugs lay empty on the ground, along with party cups and paper plates and somebody’s Lions snapback. The rack of wood is almost bare; one keg is leaking cider.
I sigh. Time to get to work.
As Tom Leyden of WXYZ first reported, Aaron Berry was arrested on suspicion of DUI, amongst other charges. That makes for Detroit Lions arrests this offseason, by far the highest total in the NFL and so now I guess they are officially the New Bengals, a morally bankrupt group of thugs drunkenly rampaging across America, the example set from the team president on down.
Everything I know about the NFL and human behavior tells me this can’t be a systemic thing. The Lions aren’t coaching their players to go out and smoke weed and drive drunk and escape from the cops. The Lions, an organization which had the fewest arrests in the NFL from 2000-2011, didn’t suddenly become a wretched hive of scum and villainy.
Let’s look at the Vikings’ Love Boat incident. Certain Vikings players had been annually organizing evenings of debauchery on private boats. It culminated in seventeen players flying in women of leisure from around the country and doing all sorts of ridiculous things with them during a booze-soaked rager, in full view of horrified boat staff and crew.
That, clearly, was a team thing. That was a systemic problem. That was a culture of lawlessness and criminality. That, also, was a winning team with a perennial Top Ten offense during their 2005 bye week—which magnifies both the deviousness of the behavior and the total and complete lack of effect it had on their job.
The Lions’ arrests are individual incidents. Mikel Leshoure, with friends in southwest Michigan. Nick Fairley, back home in Alabama. Aaron Berry, after participating in Lesean McCoy's charity softball game. There’s absolutely no connection between any of these player’s bad decisions—except who signs their paychecks.
It's time for some talking points. MGoBlog super-ego discussion mode, engage:
So what, are you saying this is okay?
Absolutely not. These young men have made some awful decisions that have put their own lives at risk in a metaphorical way, and others’ lives at risk in a literal way. It has to stop, and in fact it had to stop several incidents ago. It is UNACCEPTABLE in the grand tradition of being angry on the Internet.
So what should the Lions do to stop it?
There's nothing they can do to stop it. They can send them to counseling or training, read everyone on the roster the riot act, punish the guilty with fines and/or suspensions, cut the offenders off the team or any combination of the above. But as Terry Foster did a brilliant job of explaining, the Lions can’t just cut someone for getting a DUI; that sets a precedent they can’t possibly uphold.
Foster’s plan of aggressive testimonials (possibly combined with the NFLPA’s ride-share service) might be the most effective option, but none of that will guarantee any of the Lions’ young players won’t make a mistake.
Are the Lions the new Bengals?
No, the Lions aren't the new Bengals. The Bengals intentionally gambled on character and injury risks because they refused to shell out money for full-time scouts. They drafted on name recognition, and kept up with this strategy despite it repeatedly biting them in the butt.
The Lions' brass haven’t been seeking out character risks, but they may have had overinflated confidence in their locker-room culture. As I wrote for Bleacher Report, the Lions’ current leadership has made a habit of swinging for the fences on picks, drafting guys with the most talent and potential over mediocre guys with higher floors.
Going forward, they’re going to have to be more careful about drafting guys with these kind of issues in their background, but that’s about it.
So are the Lions going to suck now?
No, absolutely not.
Many have jabbed at the organization for the leadership on drinking and driving coming from the top—but they’re getting it exactly backwards. Tom Lewand was fantastic at his job before he got pulled over after a golf outing, and is still fantastic at his job.
If you’ve ever been to a golf outing, or involved in corporate golf in any way, knows they often end with a boozy parade of people who are really good at their jobs suckin’ it up and driving home. As I tweeted on the day of Berry’s arrest, how many sales managers are going to drive from Happy Hour to the golf club, and on the way call into the Huge Show and rant about the “thugs” now wearing Honolulu Blue?
To reiterate: This is not okay. Lions players have to stop breaking the law. But what happens with these players in their personal lives from this point forward is not something we can, or should, have control over. Nothing will come of us proclaiming or declaring anything. They’ll be watched, they’ll be helped, they may be punished, and they may get treatment. Meanwhile, they’ll to do their jobs as best they can.
Ultimately, that’s how this story ends: with football. Once football starts, we’ll stop paying attention to these young men and the mistakes they’re making. We could sit around and blow a lot of hot air about whether or not football is really important, and how athletes are ceaselessly worshipped and given carte blanche, and how awful it is that these kids will get to go right on plying their trade like nothing happened.
But the only reason we’re talking about the arrests is because of football: the unending amount of attention we pay to it, and the huge pedestal we put it on. Nick Fairley getting arrested is the subject of national sport punditry and bloviating for a solid week, not because people care about Nick Fairley, gifted youth on a rocky path to community pillardom—or even the theoretical victims he’s lucky don’t exist—but because it might, or might not, affect the Detroit Lions.
Let's take it one step further: the reason the Lions’ arrests have been the subject of SO MUCH hot air and spilled in and battered keyboards is because we have to talk about football all the time, and if Lions DUIs is the only thing happening then we’ll just talk Lions DUIs until the next thing happens (in this case, it was the release of the Freeh report on the Penn State horrificness).
This all feeds off a gross, mucky instinct that sports fans (and, I fear, everyone) has: the desire to BE ANGRY all the time, to get up on a soapbox and rant and rave about how everyone else is doing it wrong and people these days have no humanity left and everything’s going to hell in a handbasket all the time. It’s a competitive RAGEFEST 24x7x365 to see who can be the first to be most angry and the most defiant and the most condemnificating. Every morsel of news gets thrown in the great whirling, threshing maw and it gets shredded and re-shredded and pulverised over and over and over until Deadspin or ESPN or whoever throws in the next hunk of meat.
I don't understand what we get out of this, except maybe the temporary emotional boost of feeling like we are RIGHT, in contrast to their WRONG. But as Michael Schottey drove home in a criminally underread piece, many of us have an awful lot of almost-skeletons in our closet on this issue, and we should stop and think about that before we throw our next beloved sports idol into the Rage Combine.
Meanwhile, I have to take my own advice. I’ve got a bunch of mugs to wash, trash to pick up, and cider to brew, and I’ve barely started chopping this wood.
I'm off to channel this energy into something productive: my axe.
The Old Mother Hubbard series takes stock of what goods the Lions have left in the larder; i.e. the assets they have going forward. We’ll assess each player the Lions will likely bring to training camp. By tradition, we start with the defensive tackles and move away from from the ball. Here’s what last year’s Old Mother Hubbard had to say about each defensive tackle the Lions will be bringing forward: Ndamukong Suh:
An incredible physical talent, with almost unlimited upside. As a rookie, he performed like an above-average starter, while carrying the heaviest workload in the NFL. If he continues to improve, Suh will become one of the best in the NFL—and maybe one of the best ever.
Sammie Hill:
A natural big body who is slowly fulfilling his top-flight physical potential, Hill will remain a big part of the Lions’ rotation as his technique and body develop.
Corey Williams:
Williams was a two-way force for the Lions in 2010, and an incredible addition to the roster. With his natural size (6’-4”, 320 lb.), great acceleration, and sometimes-too-quick snap anticipation, Williams is a difficult assignment for any offensive lineman. It would be really, really, really nice if he could cut down on the penalties.
Nick Fairley, of course, was not around to OMH, and Andre Fluellen is an unrestricted free agent whose time seems to finally have come. Let’s see how Suh, Hill, Williams, and Fairley stack up against the league high, low, and average: Ndamukong Suh is the perfect example of why I decided to add Advanced NFL Stats WPA+ and EPA+ data to this analysis. You can see that solid down-to-down run-stuffing combined with few-to-no penalties results in an extraordinarily high PFF grade, as with like the Jets’ Sione Pouha. Though Suh is the highest-graded pass rusher of this group at +8.6 (avg. -0.76), Suh’s overall grade is barely above league average at +3.3 (avg. +2.13).
This describes something true about Ndamukong Suh’s play: his -1.7 rush grade (avg. +2.45) means that most of the game, he’s doing a mediocre job of run stuffing and “pass coverage” (screen-sniffing-out). This is where EPA+ and WPA+ come in.
As Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats explains, EPA is a statistic that measures the Expected Points Added on offense: for each play made, how many points is that play worth (in his mathematical model)? Defensively, Burke measures performance with +EPA: he adds up “the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense.”
+EPA captures the positive impact a player has on his team—his playmaking ability. Generally speaking, the more and more-positive plays a player makes, the better he is relative to players who make fewer plays. To borrow a phrase, this accentuates the positive and eliminates the negative; +EPA can’t possibly measure defensive plays not made (Suh getting trap-blocked out of a play, for example).
There is an obvious connection between +EPA and high overall performance: Sione Pouha has the highest overall PFF grade, and the 6th-highest +EPA. But while Ndamukong Suh ranks 33rd in overall PFF grade, he’s 8th in +EPA. Suh is a “plus player,” to use scout’s parlance; he makes a dramatic positive impact on his team and the game.
Now, we turn to Win Probability Added. Again, Burke:
The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. For example, at the start of the 2nd quarter, a team down by 7 points with a 2nd down and 5 from their own 25 will win about 36% of the time--in other words a 0.36 WP. On that 2nd down and 5, let’s say there is a 30-yard pass, setting up a 1st down and 10 on the opponent’s 45. Now that team has gone from a 0.36 to a 0.39 WP. The WPA for that play would be +0.03.
EPA+ measures the expected points added by a defender’s positive plays, and WPA+ measures how much more likely a defender’s team is to win a game because of the positive plays he made. It makes sense that there’s a very high correlation between EPA+ and WPA+ (for this year’s DTs, it’s an r-squared of 0.883), but what WPA does is emphasize the game situation. A sack on 3rd and 6 is huge, but a sack on 3rd and 6 when you’re up by three late the 4th quarter is a lot huger than the a sack on 3rd and 6 when you’re up by 14 in the 1st.
So, back to Ndamukong Suh. He’s tied for eighth in WPA+ with 1.09; Pouha is 16th at 0.86. But wait, how can Suh have had a bigger positive impact on the Lions’ chances to win than Pouha, when Pouha’s PFF grade was literally ten times higher? WPA+ is a descriptive stat; it describes what happened in context—and in the case of defensive players, only describes their positive plays. Pouha was a devastatingly effective run-stuffer this year, and that’s it. He didn’t rush the passer, he didn’t pick off passes, he made tackles whenever they ran near him and didn’t screw up. That’s a formula for very high PFF grade, pretty high EPA+, and very good WPA+; exactly what we see.
There’s been a lot of talk about Suh’s reduced production this season. By PFF reckoning, he went from 11 sacks to 5, and from 48 tackles to 26. That came partially because of his lightened workload: in games he was active, he played 77.9% of snaps (of course, he was suspended for two games). In 2010 that figure was 90.4%.
The missing piece of the puzzle: stats that are not sacks. In 2010, Suh had 24 pressures and 6 QB hits. In 2011, Suh actually had more pressures, 27, and 4 QB hits despite being on the field for 224 (22.5%) fewer snaps. Suh actually had a sack, hit, or pressure more frequently in 2011 (avg. one per 22.1 snaps) than in 2010 (per 24.3 snaps). Bottom Line: Ndamukong Suh is a fast, powerful pass-rushing tackle who impacts games about as dramatically as any DT in the NFL. His physical tools and competitive drive allow him to make huge plays at critical moments. His habit of taking bad personal foul penalties has come to a head and been addressed. His down-to-down consistency and run-stopping is improving, if slowly. In 2012, he needs to continue developing if he wants to reach his unlimited potential. Sammie Hill had a 437-snap workload in 2011, and graded out at +2.5 overall, slightly above average. That’s a step down from 2010, when he received a +11.5 mark. From what I’ve seen on tape, they used Hill as the primary run-stopping tackle this year, and opposing lines are respecting that with double-teams. Hill is still learning how to handle this newfound attention, often getting dominated at the point of attack then using his strength to recover. His run-stopping grade went from +4.1 in 2010 down to +1.5 in 2011.
But like Suh, Hill had a positive impact much bigger than his PFF grade would suggest. His +WPA was 0.72, ranked 21st of 130 defensive tackles (and well above the 0.425 league average). His +EPA was 21.1, ranked 28th and nearly splitting the difference between Suh's 33.1 and the NFL average of 14.5.
Looking at the radar chart above, it's hard not to notice the Lions DTs hugging tightly to the NFL average in PFF grades, but flying way out towards the maximum in EPA+.
This confirms everything we think about the design of the Lions defense: they coach the linemen to get upfield and make plays, at the expense of typical DL responsibilities. Graded by traditional expectations of defensive linemen, they are mediocre. Graded by how they impact the game, they are outstanding. The whole picture takes both perspectives into account. Bottom Line: Sammie Hill's is a powerful run-stopping DT with surprising athleticism. His role is growing, and his body and technique must scale with the challenge of his new responsibilities. He must learn to anchor against, or split, double-teams in the run game to take the next step. Corey Williams needed to cut down on the penalties; he did, from 15 flags drawn in 2010 to just 8. However, he also cut down on the pass-rushing effectiveness. He went from a +9.2 PFF pass rush grade in 2010, down to -2.6. While his coverage and run-stopping grades held steady, cutting his penalties half only made him tied with Suh for third-most penalized DT in the NFL. His 0.5 +WPA and 13.8 +EPA closely match the NFL average for those stats, in a system that maximizes those metrics for DTs.
The ridiculous number of flags tossed his way were worth it when he was a dominant two-way player, not so when he's the least-effective pass rusher on the team. This is his contract year; I would not be surprised if 2012 is his last season in a Lions uniform . . . or if 2011 was. Bottom Line:Corey Williams had an incredible 2011, arguably a better all-around performance than Ndamukong Suh's studly rookie year. But his pass-rushing performance fell off the face of the Earth when he stopped jumping snap counts, and he's still penalized far too often. If he does not recover some semblance of his 2011 form, he should (and will) be replaced. Nick Fairley was a DT prospect nearly as beguiling as Ndamukong Suh; after the 2010 bowl season he was the consensus No. 1 overall prospect. Questions about his short on-field track record, his struggle with grades, and his off-field choices lingered, as did those about his long-term commitment to excellence. In the short term, it appears "excellence" is what he's all about.
His 236 snaps were just barely shy of PFF's 25% minimum threshold. If you discount that, Fairley was the Lions' top-graded overall defensive tackle in 2011. His pass rush, pass coverage, and run-stopping grades were all nicely positive, though he was assessed three penalties in those snaps, a poor rate going forward.
Fairley breaks the mold for Lions defensive tackles: he is consistently outstanding in every traditional phase of the game, nearly every down he plays. However, his low snap count and his lack of pursuit game have prevented him from generating enough "flash plays" to shine in metrics like +WPA and +EPA. This will change. Bottom Line: On the field, Nick Fairley was everything the Lions could have asked for. His size, power, and desire to be great showed through every time he stepped on the field. Unfortunately, a foot injury slowed him at the beginning and end of the season. If he can stay healthy, and continue to develop his "country strong" physique, he could be a monster in 2012.
Overall, the Lions defensive tackles look deep and strong for 2012. Suh and Hill retrenched a little in 2011, but in the context of added responsibility. In very limited time, Nick Fairley was no less dominant in the NFL than in college. Corey Williams, though, had a relatively awful year, and the Lions must make a decision about him.
The Lions need three strong tackles to rotate, and a fourth for depth/development. If Williams is no longer a part of the top three rotation, he could be let go in favor of someone younger. Then again, if he's let go Hill becomes the graybeard of the group at 25. The Lions would also then rely on Hill to realize his potential as a dominant one-technique DT. The Lions may want to keep Williams for his veteran presence, if nothing else. SHOPPING LIST:Nothing needed here, unless the Lions choose to jettison Williams in favor of someone younger/cheaper.Read more...
Back when Nick Fairley suddenly showed up to training camp in a walking boot, I wrote a piece called “Nick Injured? It’s Fairley Insignificant.” In it I said not to PANIC:
The Lions’ defensive line must keep rolling waves, so they’ll need Fairley back—but not the way they needed Ndamukong Suh last season. Suh played a thousand snaps, nearly every single down the defense was on the field last season. Fairley was never going to carry that big of a load even if he showed up to camp in the best shape of his life, dominated every rep, and didn’t suffer so much as a paper cut. He’s an extremely talented player and he seems like a nice, fun-loving guy—but he doesn’t need to be an All-Pro for the Lions to have a good defense this year.
After five games, the Lions’ defense is fourth-best in the NFL, allowing just 17.8 points per game. The talent, skill, and depth of the defensive line has allowed the Lions to contain the run and snuff out the pass. They have 12 sacks, tied for 11th-best in the league—with nearly zero blitzing. The Lions’ Pro Football Focus team Pass Rush grade is +18.9, fifth-best. Clearly, the line has been fine with or without the #13 overall pick.
Early during the Monday Night game, Commenter Matt nudged me and said, “Dude, Fairley’s in.” I looked and saw that indeed, #98 was out there, rotating in for a snap or two. It continued throughout the night; Fairley seamlessly blended with Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams and Sammie Hill and Andre Fluellen.
Fairley got great penetration, fought off blocks, got in on some piles, and per Pro Football Focus had three quarterback pressures. He received a +2.4 overall PFF grade (+1.0 run defense, +1.3 pass rush, +0.1 penalty), amazing work for an 18-snap workload. The impact wasn’t seen but it was felt, as the Lions defensive line constantly rotated players in and out, staying fresh and keeping the pressure at a rolling boil for sixty minutes.
As I'm sure you saw earlier in the week, ESPN Stats & Information found that Cutler was under duress for 42.1% of his throws Monday Night, the highest for any single quarterback in any single game so far this year. Cutler performed incredibly well considering the pressure; any other quarterback might have gone down seven or eight times—or at least, thrown a lot more incompletions or interceptions.
But it’s more than just the defensive line.
Philadelphia fans and media alike are screaming for the Eagles to scrap the “wide nine,” a defensive system wherein the blindside pass-rushing defensive end lines up far outside their opposing offensive tackle, and the rest of the line shifts around to obtain maximum penetration and pass rush without blitzing. Adam Caplan of Scout.com explains:
Does all this sound familiar? It should, because it’s the exact same system the Lions use.
There’s a problem inherent in widening out that defensive line, then coaching them to aggressively penetrate. Trap blocks, counters, and end-arounds become extremely effective. Teams intent on running the ball will succeed. In a recent Detroit News article, Jim Schwartz explained how the Lions deal with this:
"We're vulnerable to trap blocks," Schwartz said. "You tell guys to get up field and rush the passer, they're going to be susceptible to the trap. But our linebackers are expected to play that. We don't want our guys slowing down and playing traps. Suh is an instinctive guy. He's seen those things before. If we are getting off the line the way we are supposed to, our linebackers should fill those (gaps) up."
Stephen Tulloch, Justin Durant, DeAndre Levy, and Bobby Carpenter have combined to do just that. Though opposing running backs are shredding the Lions’ defensive line for 4.78 YpC, the Lions have allowed only one rushing touchdown. Opposing running backs are getting through t the second level, but no further.
On the passing side of the ball, the Lions are one of the best defenses in the NFL. According to one of my favorite pass-defense metrics, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, the Lions’ pass defense is tied with the New York Jets for second-best in the NFL. Pro Football Focus grades the Lions pass rush fifth, and pass coverage No. 1.
In Detroit, the “wide nine” system is working perfectly. The strength, speed, depth and alignment of the Lions’ defensive line is putting heat on quarterbacks with almost no blitzing. The burden of stopping the run is almost entirely on the linebackers’ shoulders—and they’re getting the job done. The Eagles’ linebackers aren’t, and Nnamdi Asomugha is having to explain to reporters that contrary to appearances they do know how to tackle.
The back seven is also working in concert to take away quarterbacks’ safety blankets underneath, prevent being burned deep, jumping the medium routes to pick passes off and get the ball back to the offense. Where the Eagles gazillion-dollar “dream team” secondary is getting gashed on the ground and through the air, the Lions hand-picked cast of role players and reclamation projects is the best back seven in the NFL.
Nick Fairley showed up to this morning’s practice in a walking boot, obviously unable to work. Confirmed by a Tweet from the Detroit News’ Chris McCosky, the previously-thought-to-be-minor injury became a possible stress fracture. To steal a meme from MGoBlog:
PANIC?
No, no panic. For starters, this is training camp—bumps and bruises happen. For seconds, this training camp comes after the longest absolutely-no-work layoff in modern NFL history. Normally, these guys have already gone through several sessions of “no contact” (but actually mostly full speed) OTAs, plus a full minicamp. The player-only workouts were just conditioning and 7-on-7 stuff; this is the first real football of 2011 and it’s already August. There were bound to be more nicks and dings than usual.
Here's the other thing: depth. Remember The Parable Of The One-Eyed Beggar? This is partly why the Lions have Corey Williams AND Ndamukong Suh AND Sammie Hill AND Nick Fairley AND Andre Fluellen: so that they can lose one or two of those guys for a while without much of a dropoff.
The flipside is that the Lions’ defensive line must keep rolling waves, so they’ll need Fairley back—but not the way they needed Ndamukong Suh last season. Suh played athousand snaps, nearly every single down the defense was on the field last season. Fairley was never going to carry that big of a load even if he showed up to camp in the best shape of his life, dominated every rep, and didn’t suffer so much as a paper cut. He’s an extremely talented player and he seems like a nice, fun-loving guy—but he doesn’t need to be an All-Pro for the Lions to have a good defense this year.
An interesting play developed during the first period of team work. The Lions' offense went to the line of scrimmage and center Dominic Raiola changed the call. Safety Louis Delmas sensed something and quickly changed the defensive call and shifted the defensive alignment. Seeing that, Raiola quickly reverted back to the original call and snapped the ball. It was a running play wide left and Jahvid Best broke it for a long gainer, bringing cheers from the crowd.
I love every single thing about that quote. I love that we see the value of Raiola: there are bigger centers who can run block better, but he improves the whole offense with his ability to read a defense and change the protection—or even the play. It’ll never show up on a stat sheet, or even in Pro Football Focus’s grades, but it Dominic Raiola brings a wealth of value to this team that that cannot be denied.
Second, I love that Louis Delmas is maturing. His groin healed from last season, allowing him to again play like “Da Missile” we saw in 2009—but he’s coming into his own as a complete safety now. He has the recognition skills and leadership ability to put the rest of the defense in position to succeed; he’s not just flying around putting shoulders into people.
Third, I love that Jahvid Best can still hit the home run. We didn’t see much of his “jets” after the first few games, but I believe he’s going to make a believer out of everyone this year. Delmas and Best were two guys who were supposed to be huge for the Lions last year, and they weren’t. If they can play at the level described above, they’ll improve the team just as much as Tulloch, Durant, or any of the offseason additions.
I’ve never been to any of the campuses of Copiah-Lincoln Community College. I’ve never stepped foot on their practice field in the heat of August. I have no idea if its facilities are those of a polished football factory, or of a rural high school. Is the grass lush and green, or dusty and scraggly? Is a cajun waterboy at the ready with a filtered backpack, or is there a garden hose with holes in it zip-tied to a chain link fence? I don’t know. I do know that Wesson, Mississippi is a long way from the bright lights of SEC football—and that’s where a huge, cat-quick pass-rusher from Mobile named Nick Fairley expected to be. Fairley told an Alabama TV station:
Juco, it kept me humble. Coming out of high school, everybody is going to the D-I school with a big guy, so everybody knows you. They are going into the big time D-I . . . juco was a great eye-opener and got me level headed and ready to go. So when I got to Auburn, I was ready.
For many players, it’s a long and winding road to the NFL. But for Nick Fairley, it was a long and winding road just from high school to the college of his choice. He was rated as just 3-star DE/DT prospect by both Scout.com and Rivals.com, though my suspicion is that had more to do with his lack of grades than a lack of potential. Clearly, a 6’-4,” 257-pound pass rusher with multiple SEC offers is more than a middle-of-the-road prospect.
Despite strong mutual interest with Auburn, and a verbal commitment, Fairley wasn’t academically able to attend Auburn. After graduating from Lillie B. Williamson high school, he went straight to Copiah-Lincoln, a JUCO which has fed several top prospects to Auburn. After that redshirt year, Fairley terrorized the JUCO competition: he racked up 63 tackles (9.0 per game), 9 TFL (1.3 per game), 28 QB hits (4.0 per game), and 7 sacks (1.0 per game). He also notched two fumble recoveries, one forced fumble, one blocked kick and seven pass breakups.
"I'm very excited to re-commit to Auburn," said Fairley. "I've been waiting on this for a long time, since I went to junior college. Auburn is where I wanted to go out of high school so I decided to stick with them.
"I'm ready to go to Auburn, work hard, get my grades and make an impact."
. . . except it didn't quite work out that way. After recommitting in May of 2008, the Tigers’ 2008 season ended with the resignation of head coach Tommy Tuberville. Having spent a year and a half at Cop-Lin with visions of War Eagles dancing in his head, he didn’t re-open his recruiting. Fairley signed his NLI to attend Auburn on December 17th. However, in January it was discovered that one of his correspondence classes wasn’t completed by the deadline, so Nick had to enroll in late May—missing the spring practices of his sophomore year.
When asked about his unwavering commitment to the Tigers, even after a staff change and the academic goofup, Fairley pointed to the presence of “Coach Rock,” former Auburn standout Tracy Rocker:
“When he was at Auburn, he won the Outland and Lombardi trophies. Not too many defensive linemen have done that. He must know something. He's also been to the (NFL) so he knows what it takes. I would rather get coached by someone that's been there and done it."
Despite missing spring ball—thus being behind his teammates in knowledge of the defense and scheme—Fairley started the Tigers’ first game of 2009, against Louisiana Tech. He had five tackles, a fumble recovery, half a TFL, and 2 QB hits--but also looked every bit as raw as he was. Coach Gene Chizik:
“Being a defensive lineman and starting your first game, things get hairy down there,” Chizik said. “That’s a whole different world down there on the defensive line because it’s so physical. It’s just the nature of the position. Nick played high a little bit, but overall really tried to play physical and tried to play with some effort. I think he falls into the category of we’ve got a long way to go to get him where he needs to be. I think he’s got a chance down the road to be a really good player.”
Fairley would play in all 13 games—and get one more start—his sophomore year. Playing mostly as a reserve, Fairley still notched 28 total tackles, 3.5 TFL, and 1.5 sacks. Impressively, his first career sack (for minus 14 yards) came against Georgia—and he blocked a PAT against Tennessee, maintaining a 13-6 lead right before halftime. He repeated the five-solo-tackle performance of his first game in the last game that season, roughing up Northwestern in a nailbiter of an Outback Bowl.
At this point, it seems kind of ridiculous to recap Fairley’s junior season at Auburn. I’ll just copy and paste from his official bio:
CAREER -- Won 2010 Lombardi Trophy, becoming second player in school history to win the award joining his position coach, Tracy Rocker who won the award in 1988 ... Set AU single-season record of 24.0 TFL's in 2010, setting record against South Carolina in SEC Championship Game ... Also set AU single-season record with 11.5 sacks during junior season, setting record against Oregon in BCS National Championship Game ... Earned Defensive MVP honors of BCS National Championship Game vs. Oregon.
2010 -- Lombardi Award winner (nation's best lineman) ... Nagurski Award finalist ... Associated Press SEC Defensive Player of the Year ... FWAA All-America Team ... Walter Camp All-America Team ... Sporting News First-Team All-America ... SI.com First-Team All-America ... Associated Press First-Team All-America ... CBSSports.com First-Team All-America ... Rivals.com First-Team All-America ... Coaches' First-Team All-SEC ... Associated Press Unanimous First-Team All-SEC ... Phil Steele First-Team All-SEC ... ESPN.com All-SEC ... Outland Trophy semi-finalist ... CBSSports.com Midseason All-America ... Phil Steele's Midseason All-America First-Team ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (11/26-27) ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/23) ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/16) ... SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week (10/2) ... SEC Defensive Player of the Week (9/13) ... Started all 14 games and totaled 60 tackles with 24.0 TFL's and 11.5 sacks ... Had at least 1.0 TFL in 12 of 14 games and a sack in eight games ... 1st in SEC / 12th in NCAA in sacks (11.5) and 1st in TFL's (3rd in NCAA) (24.0) .
Look, the dude ate people, okay? Nick Fairley subsisted on the flesh, souls, and hearts of opposing offensive linemen. He looked like a man amongst boys, even at the heart of an SEC defense. So, what changed from his sophomore year? What transformed him from a raw, promising prospect to a world-devourer? Fairley told the LA Times that, again, DL coach Tracy Rocker played a huge role:
Tracy Rocker, Auburn's defensive line coach, gets the Tiger's share of credit for fine-tuning Fairley's considerable skill set.
"Coach Rocker flipped a switch to turn on," Fairley said.
This is the most intriguing side of Nick Fairley. For all of the talk of “questions” and “immaturity,” for all of the whispers about his work ethic and his commitment, he has unwavering respect for anyone who’s done it themselves. Tracy Rocker accomplished exactly what Nick Fairley wanted to accomplish, and Rocker was able to get Fairley to play at a dominant level. If only the Lions had someone who could command Fairley’s respect and attention . . .
On whether it concerns him that he'll be part of a three- or four-man rotation at defensive tackle:
"Aww man, playing with Suh is going to be an honor. That guy was the defensive rookie of the year, so to be able to play next to him… I can't wait to get in and pick his brain for the things he did his rookie year."
He did get a chance to speak with Suh shortly thereafter:
On having talked to Suh: “I talked to Suh today and he gave me some great advice; I talked to Kyle Vanden Bosch and all of them guys. I’m really just ready to go and I want to pick their brain … They’re going to give me some great advice so I can come in as a rookie and know what to do.”
On what Suh said to him: “He basically was like, ‘Man, you’ve got be ready to come to work; they’re going to push you and try to get the best out of you, but you’re going to have fun.’ He said that’s one thing that they do here is: have fun and work hard. So I’m ready to come here and get things together.”
I firmly believe that Nick Fairley is walking into the best possible situation. Not only is the Lions’ defensive line one of the most talented position groups in the game, it’s got the strongest culture. Kyle Vanden Bosch sets the bar for effort, intensity, and consistency as high as it will go. Ndamukong Suh is a physical freak and firebreathing monster on the field, a gentle giant with rare understanding off it. Lawrence Jackson is a brilliant young man with a poet’s soul—and a first-round pick’s tools and production. Cliff Avril plays with joy and abandon, but has relentlessly built his body and game up from a third-round OLB ‘tweeter to a prototypical 4-3 rush end. Corey Williams is a naturally big-bodied man who really, really, really can’t wait to get at the quarterback.
Leading them all is position coach Kris Kocurek, whose approach and creativity has drawn raves from players, coaches, and observers alike. Working closely with Kocurek is Gunther Cunningham, who combines a well-earned rep for exacting standards and profane tirades with a genuine love for his players and colleagues deeper than could ever let on in public (even though he lets on in public, too). On top of all that, of course, is Jim Schwartz, The Grandmaster, who drew consistently excellent performance out of notoriously inconsistent talents like Albert Haynesworth and Jevon Kearse.
I don’t want to wax too poetic here—but the Lions have built a truly special unit, a group of players and coaches who will define the identity of this team for years to come. If Nick Fairley wants to get where he says he wants to go, all he’ll have to do is show up in Allen Park and follow his teammates’ lead. If he can stay relentlessly committed to Auburn through the two-year odyssey in between graduating high school and stepping onto campus, he can do that. Frankly, I don’t think his teammates will let him fail. But of course, I’ve written enough about the Lions’ current linemen. What are the experts saying about Nick Fairley?
Positives: Very solid athlete... Good size... Very solid pass rusher... Long arms... Uses his hands well... Quick off the ball... Disruptive... Gets in the backfield... Plays with good leverage... Reasonably good strength... Solid power... Can get penetration... Very solid bull rush... Solid strength at the point of attack... Shoots gaps well... Good arsenal of pass rush moves... Great swim move... Can split and slice through some double teams... Does a good job shedding single blockers and making plays on the ball... Good flexibility and body control... Plays the run well... Does a nice job in pursuit... Actively chases the ball... Makes plays in the backfield versus the run... Stays low... Looks comfortable dropping into short coverage... Good recognition skills... High motor... Plays with intensity... Mean streak... Played through an injured shoulder toward the end of the 2010 season... Tremendous upside... Finished third in the FBS with 24 tackles for loss in 2010... Schematic versatility, could also get looks as 3-4 LDE... Compares to Warren Sapp, Marcus Stroud.
Negatives: Former junior college transfer who started just two games prior to the 2010 season... Can wear down a bit as the game progresses... Will play down to his opponent... Needs to improve lower body strength... Can be engulfed at the point of attack... Questionable work habits... Has taken some undisciplined penalties, and some cheap shots at quarterbacks... Measured in at the combine over an inch shorter and nine pounds lighter than his listed weight, could fall a bit if viewed only as a three-technique tackle who would only appeal to 4-3 teams... Reportedly missed his flight to the combine, missed a team meeting there, and was late for a team interview at his pro day.
Pass rush: Explosive initial burst off the snap. Good flexibility and balance to "get skinny" and penetrate gaps. Uses his hands well to slap away blockers' attempts to get their hands on him. Possesses a rare combination of long arms and quick feet, helping him avoid cut blocks. Good swim move. Locates the ball quickly and has the lateral agility to redirect. Good short-area closing burst. Good effort in pursuit. Surprising speed for a man of his size.
Run defense: Relies on his quickness to penetrate gaps and make plays behind the line of scrimmage more than his strength to hold up at the point of attack. Long, relatively thin limbed for the position and can be knocked off the ball due to his lack of an ideal anchor. Good flexibility to twist through double-teams. Locates the ball quickly and pursues well laterally.
Explosion: Quick burst to penetrate gaps. Can shock his opponent with his quickness, strong initial punch and quick hands to disengage. Has an explosive burst to close when he sees a playmaking opportunity and can make the eye-popping collision without needing much space to gather momentum.
Strength: Good, but not elite strength, especially in his lower body. Has a tendency to come up at the snap and can be pushed back because of it. Possesses very good natural strength, however, including in his core as he can twist through double teams. Very good hand strength to rip through blocks. Good strength for the pull-down and trip-up tackle.
Tackling: Possesses a good closing burst and brings his hips to supply the big hit. Good strength for the drag tackle. Willing to lay out and has good hand-eye coordination to trip up the ballcarrier running away from him.
Intangibles: Former high school basketball player who shows surprisingly quick feet. An ascending talent, but is nonetheless labeled as a player with some true bust potential, as there are concerns about his work ethic. Carries a little bit of extra weight around his middle and is more "country" strong than weight-room defined. Has developed a reputation as a dirty player; repeatedly flagged in 2010 for late hits and there have been instances when he has speared ballcarriers with his helmet, banged into their lower legs purposely and pushed off downed players to lift himself up. One of nine siblings.
SI.com gave him a 3.22, their fourth-highest overall grade:
Positives: Game-impacting defensive lineman whose star is on the rise. Displays great movement skills and an explosive burst to the action. Quickly changes direction and effectively makes plays down the line or chases the action in backside pursuit. Plays with good pad level, fires off the snap with a great first step, and shoots through the gaps up the field. Fast off the edge, effective in pursuit, and makes plays in every direction. Constantly doubled by the opposition yet remains a game changer.
Negatives: Must improve his overall strength. Marginal hand use and displays limited moves getting off blocks. Lacks pure power and can be controlled by single blocker. Mostly a first move lineman that must beat opponents off the snap. Not known as a hard worker in practice.
Analysis: Fairley comes off a career year in which he started the season hot and never let up through Auburn's national title game. He possesses the skills and athleticism to be used as a defensive tackle or two-gap end and has an enormous amount of upside. Fairley will be very productive at the next level if he improves the details of his game and works hard on and off the field.
Positives: Very quick off the ball and disruptive. Has explosive hips and is a violent, head-snapping tackler. Good balance and agility. Has long arms and quick, active hands and knows how to keep defenders off his frame. Times the snap well, throws his hips in the hole and wins one-on-one matchups. Can split the double team. Excellent closing speed — smells blood. Rips off blocks and continually shows up behind the line of scrimmage. Flashed the ability to dominate and take over games, as he did late against LSU and Alabama. Plays with a mean streak and continually seeks to punish quarterbacks (knocked three out of games as a junior) and agitate blockers.
Negatives: Plays too upright with an inconsistent pad level and stalls at the line of scrimmage if he does not win at the snap. Does not play with pop in his hands. Cannot dig his heels in the ground against the double-team — was pancaked vs. Georgia OG Clint Boling. Not a glass eater ideally suited to occupy blocks. Tends to freelance, lose gap integrity and, at times, lose the ball. Not smart or disciplined and brain freezes show up in his play. Lacks power and bulk strength. Is only a one-year producer and has underachiever tendencies — loafs on the backside and takes plays off. Lacks stamina. Plays dirty, seeks cheap shots and has been flagged for foolish, unsportsmanlike penalties. Needs to be pushed and is not a self starter.
Summary: An explosive, finesse three-technique, Fairley could make your draft or break your heart. Showed he could be a dominating force for a national championship team, took over games and could be unblockable in the interior of a "40" front if he stays motivated and uses good technique. However, he will require a very nuanced, demanding positional coach and might need to be limited to 40 snaps per game to maximize his talent. The more highly he is drafted, the greater the likelihood that he will bust, as a big pay day easily could sap his motivation. Compares to Saints 2003 sixth-overall pick Johnathan Sullivan (a bust) and could fizzle out of the league as fast as he arrives if he enters a non-challenging, unstructured environment. Has boom-or-bust potential.
Pass rush: Fairley is the premier one-gap defensive tackle in this year’s class due to his ability shoot the gap and get after the passer. Fairley finished 2010 with 12 sacks, including three in a standout performance against LSU. Most of his big plays come off the swim move. Has quick hands to get his arm over the blocker. Closes in a hurry and with aggression.
Pursuit: Is a player who is almost always on the move toward the ball carrier. Has the athleticism to move all around the line. Despite being somewhat limited in experience, Fairley shows good run/pass recognition. When Fairley plays with a lot of effort, he can move all around the field to make a tackle. But some question if Fairley always gives full effort on every play. As sensational as he is on some plays, Fairley can be completely non-existent on others. It’s an issue that Auburn head coach Gene Chizik brought up early in the season. Fairley showed better effort toward the end the season, however.
Quickness: For player of his size, Fairley has a great burst off the snap. Most of his game is centered around his quickness off the ball. Played basketball in high school and it shows in his foot speed. People will always compare Fairley to Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy and in the quickness category, he’s right there with them. Run defend: Is a long-armed defender who can be disruptive in the run game. Even where the run isn’t coming right at him, Fairley can impact the run game simply by reaching his arms out and rerouting the ball carrier. Does a lot of his work against the run against single blockers. Fairley doesn’t always do well against multiple blockers. Still, he can be an asset against the run by taking up multiple blockers.
Strength: Doesn’t have the kind of strength where he can beat double teams on a consistent basis. Looks like he can get stronger in his lower body. Can get pushed bak too often. Has a frame to add 20 pounds without it having a negative impact on his game.
Tackling: Fairley is a scary tackler. Every time he has room to make a hit, it’s an explosive one. If football doesn’t work for Fairley, his tackling shows he clearly has a future in pro wrestling. He frequently liked to suplex players. Several of Fairley’s tackles could get him fined in the NFL, so it will be interesting to see if he’ll continue his tackling technique at the next level.
Technique: Shows good hand fighting. Uses his hands well to keep blockers out of his pads. Has long arms, which is beneficial to his technique. Doesn’t take false steps that get him out of position.
Is it time? Yes, it's time. It’s more than time. It’s way past time to find out if Nick Fairley will be a boom, or a bust. It’s time to find out if he’ll be the next Warren Sapp or the next Johnathan Sullivan. It’s time to consult the One True Oracle of NFL Success: YouTube highlight reels!
First up, an absolute gem. Here's a high school reel that's just phenomenal. There's no spot shadowing, but just look for the defensive end that's significantly bigger than the defensive tackles, and running faster than the linebackers. He's #90. The best part is around 1:25 when he beats the RT and sacks the quarterback before an unblocked linebacker can get there. No, wait--the BEST part is the MUSIC:
Here's a nice little clip that shows an awesome spin/swim combo sequence at 0:12:
Here's a short film entitled "Fairley Nasty," an ode to Fairley's biggest hits and dirtiest plays throughout his two-year career at Auburn. Of special note are the explosion SF/X laid on top of Ludacris' "Move, B*tch," and Papa Roach's "Last Resort" (!):
Here's Aaron Aloysius not letting me down, providing really nice cutups of Fairley vs. Georgia. This is some proper film right here, and you can see just how frequently, and how hard, he hit A.J. Green that day. I like at 0:33, where the takes on a double-team, anchors, and makes the tackle. Also note 1:50 where he's chop blocked, and shrugs it off.
What stands out to me is Fairley’s body type. Despite being a shade taller and several pounds lighter than Suh, Fairley’s build is completely the opposite. Suh’s upper body is jawdroppingly massive; I’ve said many times that his shoulders are the size of entire hams. From the front of Suh’s chest to the back of his back seems like a distance of nearly three feet. He’s very, very lean through the core but has reasonably thick arms and legs. Fairley, meanwhile, has shockingly thin shoulders and arms for his size; most of his weight is through the middle: he’s big in the britches, thick-thighed, and—while not sloppy fat—has a little fuel tank for his sack machine.
Despite these similar sizes hung on totally different frames, Fairley’s game is almost identical to Suh’s. Similar great first step, similar penetration, similar inside/outside edge rushing ability. He’s not “bad” against the run, but he’s not often going to drop anchor and eat space like Grady Jackson. He plays with an obvious mean streak, and will likely draw some after-the-whistle penalties for crossing the line. He’s too upright at times, and sometimes vacates his lane for the sake of penetration.
Immediately, Fairley projects as a three-tech, just like Suh. However, Suh is a finished product, physically. The only thing he can develop on his frame is adding the gut he doesn’t have—and that would do more harm than good. Fairley, as Rob Rang said above, is “more ‘country’ strong than weight-room defined.” Suh just needs maintain, physically, and focus on execution and technique. But Fairley ought to be able to add significant musculature and strength through NFL conditioning. As he gets up to the “weight class” above Suh, in the 315-325 range, he should evolve into a no-less dominant 1-tech throughout his career.
The comparison I keep seeing is Warren Sapp. Sapp started off as a very similarly built 290-pound penetrating 3-tech, and slowly worked his way up to being a 330-plus-pound 3-4 two-gap DE, before realizing he was better thinner and dropping 50 pounds. I’d hope Fairley could find a happy medium as a two-way 1-tech pushing about 320, very similar to how Corey Williams is built now—only even more explosive than Williams.
Of course, I can't talk about Fairley without talking about the "whispers." I can't write thousands of words about Nick Fairley without addressing the "rumors." Some think he takes plays off. Some think he doesn’t practice hard. Some think he’s too wrapped up in himself, and will put his feet up as soon as he cashes an NFL paycheck. These "whispers," as far as I can tell, are just people repeating and amplifying each other—there’s never a source, named or un-. Whispers become rumors, rumors become facts. It got so bad that some started speculating Fairley might be the target of a smear campaign. Ultimately, Fairley has never been in a lick of trouble off the field, and—excepting his treatment of quarterbacks—he’s well-behaved on it, too.
The concept of the NFL combine is genius and it works great for the coaches / general managers who understand the nature of the beast. Good drafting teams start rumors about prospects that they want to fall to them. Bad drafting teams believe these rumors and play right into the hands of these superior teams. My Golden Rule for the draft assessment is: Listen to everything, believe nothing. What I mean by that is, when you here character rumors, injury concerns, etc, you listen to them but you don’t chalk these up as facts. Instead you do extensive research and find out if these are actual truth based rumors.
Some teams do this, we call those team “playoff” teams. Why? It’s simple, they’re in the playoffs every year because they do the leg work and know fact from fiction. Many NFL teams have become lazy and rely too heavily on the NFL combine. This goes against the first thing I was taught in scouting and that is that your evaluation should be 90% based on game film. When did Nick Fairley get passed by Marcell Dareus in most media draft boards? The answer is after the combine. The game film didn’t change after the combine, but Dareus ran a quick 10 yard split. Who cares, he ran that same speed on the game film that we watched in January, February, March and so on. This shouldn’t make you change your rankings.
CBSsports.com writer Pete Prisco wrote a couple more really nice articles defending Fairley, which ended with a line sure to warm any Lions fan’s heart: “Nick Fairley is the best player in this draft, no matter how many people try to knock him down.” Well, the Lions got the best player in the draft—and Fairley got everything he dreamed about during the long two seasons he spent in junior college. People tried to knock him down, but now it’s his turn to knock people down.
"Our blood pressure's pretty low on stuff like that," Schwartz said. "We don't want to rush things. You give somebody a set of instructions without being able to communicate with them, it really might not do a whole lot of good so we haven't done a whole lot."
Schwartz explained the raw playbook isn’t going to be of much use to a rookie who hasn’t had the instruction to back it up. That’s doubly true for Fairley, a defensive tackle in a system where DTs play a conventional role. It’s not as though he has three positions to learn, like a wideout or a linebacker. Unlike Ndamukong Suh, there’s no chance Fairley will be asked to play every snap he physically can; Fairley will play situationally. The most important thing for him is being ready to answer the bell—which is exactly what Schwartz said:
Schwartz said Fairley won't have as much to learn as some rookies when football resumes -- "We're not real complicated up front," he said. "It's more of a physical game than it is a mental game for him."
Yes, but what if the lockout extends deep into the summer and then the lockout is lifted with only a short training camp possible before the regular season begins? Won’t Fairley be hampered because the Lions didn’t give him the opportunity to familiarize himself with the material when they had the chance?
Schwartz’s decision makes sense to me on a few fundamental levels. First, I’ve dug up some pro and college playbooks for study purposes—and even with an explicatory “Here is what we are trying to do” foreword, it takes an awful lot of digestion for a layperson. Without the experience of a coach explaining it, without physical demonstration or film study backing it up, it’s almost impossible for a layperson to understand why the squiggles and arrows and dashed lines are any more significant for going this way than any other.
Of course, Nick Fairley isn’t a layperson—he was the cornerstone of a BCS National Championship-winning defense, drawn up by one of the best defensive minds in college football, Gene Chizik. Fairley’s been reading playbooks for years; he knows what all the lines and squiggles mean and can pick it up, no problem—so why not let him memorize everything now?
Because that’s not the important part. Nick Fairley will indeed pick up the “who am I supposed to kill, on what play” part quickly; as Schwartz said the Lions aren’t complicated up front. What Fairley needs is the coaching: the physical demonstrations of how they want their linemen to hit the hole, the film study of last years’ team executing the defense, the coaches’ explanation of the philosophy behind each arrow and dash in that playbook.
I remember when Jim Schwartz took over, he talked about defensive line technique. Marinelli coached his players to “get skinny in the hole,” ($) to attack gaps with a shoulder and penetrate blocks. Schwartz, meanwhile, prefers his D-line to engage their blockers, to attack and control with their arms, to get pressure without losing containment. It meant Schwartz had to coach all the linemen to do, essentially, the opposite of what they’d been doing. Nick Fairley can memorize “On this play I go here,” right now—but if he’ll have to re-learn how to “go there” from scratch, what’s the point? Schwartz would rather Nick Fairley be lifting and running sprints than poring over a playbook—so when it’s really time to learn the defense, he’ll be as ready as he can possibly be.
I can’t remember which parenting book I read that contained this description, but imagine this: everything is black. You’re sitting on a chair, and your feet are on the floor. You have no idea where you are, where the walls are, or how far out the floor extends. You feel out with one foot a bit, and it seems as though the ground is solid. After building up your resolve for a little while, you take a chance and stand up. Nothing happens, so you take another step or two. Then, on the third step, you hear a “CRACK” and a piece of the floor gives way. You rush back to that chair--and you don’t leave it unless you absolutely have to, right?
This illustrates the importance of consistency. When a child’s learning the world around them, they need to know there are absolutes they can count on—especially, their parents, and the rules their parents set. When they know where the boundaries are—and that the floor isn’t going to drop away beneath them—they have the confidence to keep exploring.
Us Lions fans aren’t new to this whole “football” game, what we are is traumatized. We’ve been burned so many times, over and over by terrible drafting, we’re scarred by it. When the Lions’ picks match our desires and expectations (like Ndamukong Suh) we have no problem abandoning ourselves to the moment. However, the Lewand/Mayhew/Schwartz crew has been so logical, so rational, so ruthless in taking the best talent on the board that we’ve grown comfortable with it. Further, the results have finally begun to show on the field.
But, when the pick comes out of left field—and is, let’s just say for the sake of argument, a wide receiver—we panic. We frantically scramble back to our mental safe place. We boo. We hiss. We moan. We kvetch . . . at least, some of us do.
I’m already working on my annual Meet The Cubs series, so I won’t do a quick rundown of Titus Young or Mikel Leshoure just yet. Suffice to say, most national football analsysts love what the Lions have done—and in fact, all of the first three picks will each be able to make immediate, positive impacts, as well as have obvious roles on the team going forward. That was such a tall assignment going in, I flat-out said it wouldn’t happen.
It’s true; I was stunned the Lions went WR so early, and even more stunned when the Lions traded back up into the second, who took an RB. Even though I didn’t see it at the time, the more I learn about the young men the Lions have added to the team, the better I feel about where the Lions are headed in 2011 and beyond. Full credit goes to the Lions’ leadership, whose consistent vision, and unwavering execution, helped complete a Lions’ offense that’s going to be one of the best in the business for years to come—and make sure the Lions’ defensive line is THE best in the business for years to come. That’s something we can be confident about.
Update #1: Still at the office. Have a drive from Lansing, so I'll miss the 4:00 start.
Update 2: plus one boy:
Pimpin' the Sanders.
Update #3: On the road.
Update 4: Here! Roary is holding court.
It's PACKED. Totally crazy. LOVE the support.
Reaction to Barry . . . and then to the Titus Young pick.
We won the raffle for an autograph!
Waiting for our turn with the big man . . .
The big man and my big man. Terrible photography but I was a little caught up in the moment.
. . . and the man you know as Commenter Matt won the luxury suite tickets to the MNF game!
We ran into Superfan, and his compatriot with an awesome Suh Pro Bowl jersey.
Of course, we had to pay our respects on the way out of town.
The boy didn't last long once we got into the car.
It was an excellent party, and an awesome time; one none of us will soon forget. Nick Fairley was really cool with my son, and I'm thrilled he'll be a Lion. Titus Young called in and sounded overwhelmed, ecstatic, and pretty funny. He said he can't wait to footrace the other Lions skill position players . . .
Big thanks to the Lions for putting this on. Read more...
Following the Lions’ pick, he followed it up with:
From there, things kind of got out of hand:
With Nick Fairley, the Lions have added the player many thought was the best available talent in the draft—especially in that limbo between the college bowl season and the Combine. In Mel Kiper’s first mock (and many other early mocks, Fairley went #1 overall, to the Panthers. Instead of the “reach” that I was worried about yesterday, the Lions had an incredible player fall right into their lap—mostly thanks to four quarterbacks being taken in front of them, pushing a Top 5 talent all the way down to 13. The problem is, he plays the same position as Ndamukong Suh—doesn’t he?
Well, yes and no. First, Fairley spelling Suh would hardly be a bad thing: according to Pro Football Focus, Suh led all NFL defensive tackles with 997 reps. He barely came off the field at all! With Suh and Fairley, Williams and Hill, the Lions will always have two fresh impact tackles on the field. Beyond that, the Lions are extremely creative with their defensive line; they use weird sets, they stunt and loop, they shuffle guys around. Adding this weapon to Kocurek and Cunningham’s arsenal is dangerous, indeed.
Ultimately, it was a question of value. When the Vikings were on the clock, Adam Schefter reported that the Lions wanted, “badly,” to trade out of their subsequent pick. Apparently, the Lions feared Minnesota replacing the aging Pat Williams with Fairley, rather than roll the dice on a quarterback (as they did). This tells us what we need to know about the Lions’ draft board.
Yesterday, I wrote that the Lions, at 1.13, would be sitting on a pile of good-but-not-great prospects. At that point, the Lions would be loathe to stand pat—if they could find a partner, I’d thought, the Lions would try desperately to slide back. Faced with the possibility that Fairley wouldn’t be there, that’s exactly what they did. Clearly, for them, Prince Amukamara fell into that class of “a whole bunch of guys we’d gladly take at 20 but not so much at 13”—and considering he went 19th, that valuation must have been in line with the rest of the NFL’s.
For the Lions to have passed on Amukamara speaks volumes—not just about their thoughts on Fairley, but their thoughts on Amukamara. Obviously, cornerback is an area of pressing concern. Obviously, Amukamara was widely thought of as a Top 10 talent. Ndamukong Suh would be more than willing to tell the Lions everything they need to know about Prince. For them to not only pass on him, but be panicked at the thought of reaching for him at 13—well, as I said, it speaks volumes. It’s not that I think Prince will be terrible now, or something, but that if you woke up today thinking the Lions passed on the guy who’d immediately solve all their problems at corner . . . apparently, they didn’t.
It wouldn’t be the most ridiculous statement to say the Lions walked into the draft with the best combination of defensive tackles in the league.
So they didn’t need another one. Let alone a guy who on paper looks to suffer from the same weaknesses as Ndamukong Suh, as well as some pretty big character issues that caused him to drop in the first place. Presuming he plays up to his one good year in college, the Lions got themselves a guy who will likely be very good at penetrating, but perhaps lack a little in run defense. Just think how the combo of Suh and Fairley would leave them susceptible to draw plays and trap blocks? To say they don’t have the linebackers to deal with that level of linemen coming at them would be an understatement.
Eep. They even invoke "same old Lions," a phrase that sends a chill down my spine, and should induce shudders in anyone reading this. Yet, it’s important to note, Suh and Fairley will likely be rotating together in the same spot, not always playing side-by side—and, they are, Suh may be playing defensive end. Don’t forget, Suh has always had a little inside-outside to him, and rumors the Lions might play Suh more on the outside compelled Schwartz to publicly denounce them a few weeks ago. I’m not saying Suh is going to switch positions, but that he’ll be able to join the DE rotation for a number of different looks. Think about:
Avril * Suh * Williams * KVB
Jackson * Suh * Fairley * Avril
Suh * Williams * Hill * Jackson
These are just to wet your whistle. My calculator tells me there are 81 possible combinations with Avril, Lo-Jack and Suh rotating at left end, Suh, Fairley, and Williams at 3-tech, Williams, Hill, and Fairley at 1-tech, and KVB, Avril, and Lo-Jack at right end. As Jim Schwartz said:
"Well, we play 130 defensive tackle snaps in a game. So, if we're rotating three guys through and they're playing 45 snaps apiece ... No. 1, there'll be a little bit of pressure. We can keep rolling waves and waves."
Ultimately, this was simply a Mayhew Pick. The Lions have a defensive philosophy: build the most dominant defensive line in the NFL and let them handle it. Mayhew took the best player available—to some, Nick Fairley was the best player available to anyone in this draft—that fit in with their approach.
Following the Lions’ pick, he followed it up with:
From there, things kind of got out of hand:
Posts
