Old Mother Hubbard: Shopping for Need, Talent, Impact, Patrick Peterson, etc.

Just after the regular season ended, I wrote a piece called "On the Instant Impact NFL Rookie." I was trying to make a few key points. First, that college coaches now prefer to schematically maximize players' raw natural gifts, rather than slowly build positional technique and craft. Second, that these rawer players are being asked to step in and start as professionals earlier than ever--and given up on before they have a chance to develop. Finally, even when lighting does strike, it doesn't always translate into long-term success. You should read the whole article, because I meant it, but here's the upshot:

Not every good player is an instant-impact player. Not every instant-impact player evolves into a Hall of Famer. “Great for a rookie” is only “decent” overall. As the Lions round the bend into this draft season, they do so with only a few pressing needs. I trust the Lions leadership not to reach for those needs, but I’m cautioning us as fans to do the same. As this roster matures, the Lions should indeed be drafting to develop, not to start; the second- or third-round pick may not start right away and that’s okay. The likes of Sammie Hill will have to hustle to make the team, and that’s okay. The Lions have a much bigger need for a Mike Williams type, who slowly develops into a quality starter, than a Michael Clayton—who set the world on fire in his rookie year, and has barely moved the needle since.

In the 2011 draft, the Lions snagged three outstanding talents who will rotate in at positions of strength--rather than start from Day one at positions of weakness. With no free agency to this point, and murky prospects thereof going forward, Lions began to panic that they'd be stuck watching the same dire back seven . . . maybe even a worse one, without FA-to-be Chris Houston. Last night, Jason LaCanfora reported that the Lions explored moving up to the top of the draft to address their most immediate need—cornerback—and teh Twitterz asploded.

It's true, I did that the Lions need two corners in this draft. I do see a need for an immediate challenger for Nate Vasher at the #2 spot, as well as a developmental corner who'll be two-to-three years away from seeing heavy rotation. I was thinking that challenger-for-#2 could be Prince Amukamara with the 13th pick, or a second-rounder like Ras-I Dowling. However, it's clear that the Lions saw only one corner in this draft as a possible immediate starter: Patrick Peterson.

I told Wade at The Honolulu Blue that I didn't think the Lions could do this deal, because they didn't have enough ammo to move up as far as they needed to--not without making it, essentially, a one- or two-man draft plus a seventh-rounder. Sure, the Lions would dramatically upgrade at a position of pressing need, but it would mean missing out on adding either (or both) of the immediate needs they addressed--not to mention all of the immediate and developmental needs they didn't address.

Through the runup to the draft, I'd noticed the Lions’ active search for a change-of-pace power back conflicted with my understanding of their approach. With all the high-priced, high-powered skill position talent they'd collected, why on Earth would they take carries and catches away from them so some fifth-round rookie could pound it into the line a few times? It seemed like a cavemanesque "you gotta move the pile, hurr hurr" capitulation to football orthodoxy, way out of character with The Grandmaster we've come to know and love.

Turns out, the Lions never had any intention of giving precious reps to an unremarkable player. They replaced the Kevin Smith/Maurice Morris/Aaron Brown/Stefan Logan platoon with a dynamic talent many rated the second-best back available--and at a lower position on the board than most thought he'd go at. He meets the immediate need of a change-of-pace back, and has the potential to be half of a long-term star tandem with Jahvid Best.

Same goes for wide receiver: the Lions had need of a field stretcher who could open up space for Burleson, Pettigrew, and Scheffler—and draw coverage away from Megatron. I thought maybe the Lions would target a fifth- or sixth-rounder like USC (and Muskegon’s) Ronald Johnson, since there were more pressing needs. But again, RoJo wasn’t going to pull any coverage off of Megatron, not for a couple of years. Instead, the Lions got Titus Young—again, an impact player who meets the immediate need at third WR, but will have a permanent role in this offense for years to come.

This morning, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reported that the Lions offered Arizona their first-, second-, and fourth-round picks to move up and get Peterson. The Cardinals said no. This should give you an idea of A) how pressing the need is at cornerback, B) what they thought of Peterson’s ability to fill it, and C) how skimpy of a draft class this would have been if the Lions had sweetened the pot until the Cardinals said “yes.”

Again, I know the OMHs aren't complete yet, but here is the Lions' updated shopping list:

• A power back who can complement—and serve as an insurance policy for—Jahvid Best.
• A receiver who can stretch coverage downfield.
• an impact starting center for 2012 and beyond.
• An impact two-way defensive end to rotate soon, and develop for 2012.
• A credible backup middle linebacker.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB ready to start right away.
• An athletic, pass-rushing OLB to rotate soon, and develop for 2012.
• An athletic cover corner, ready to take over one side in 2012.
• If Chris Houston leaves, a complete two-way corner, ready to start right away.

If the Lions had sweetened the pot by upgrading that fourth-rounder to the third-rounder, those top two lines wouldn’t have been crossed out—and, at best, only one of the other ones would have. All of those needs would be left to fill in free agency (and of course, many of them can’t or won’t be) . . . or for next year. The Martin Mayhew Mantra has always been “right player at the right price,” and that sticking with that philosophy no matter what would serve the Lions well. Remember when the Lions refused to give the Steelers anything more than a seventh-round pick for Larry Foote?  “BUT C’MONNNN!!!” we all said, “THE NEED IS SO GREAT! LARRY FOOTE’S SO GREAT! IT’S JUST A SIXTH-ROUNDER!”

Yeah, well, Larry Foote was okay for one year on a totally horrible Lions team. He was never the long-term answer—and that sixth-round pick became Chris Houston, who is the Lions’ only legitimate starting cornerback. The Lions needed Chris Houston last year (and this year!) more than they ever needed Larry Foote—and the Lions need Nick Fairley, Titus Young, and Mikel LeShoure for the next five years more than they need Patrick Peterson now.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,2011 nfl draft,team needs,patrick peterson,arizona cardinals

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Should the Lions Draft for Need, or Pick Luxury?

Last month, I wrote about the “instant impact” NFL rookie. Wunderkinds from Ndamukong Suh to Dutch Clark have conditioned fans to hope, if not expect, that every first-round pick their team makes will set the NFL on fire. At minimum, we think of a first-round pick as a player who will start from day one; a player who will step in and “fill a hole” or “solve a problem” at their position from day one, and for years to come. The problem, of course, is that it almost never works that way.

The three-ring-circus of 2006 top picks Mario Williams, Vince Young, and Reggie Bush should have taught us all a lesson about rookies. Few seem to remember it now, but the pick of Williams over Young and Bush was roundly panned. Moreover, Williams’ 5.5 sacks in 16 rookie starts had people hanging the “bust” sign on him. Meanwhile, Young’s leading of the Titans to ugly-but-gritty comeback wins landed him a spot in the Pro Bowl (despite a 66.7 passer rating). By dividing “all-purpose yards” by “total touches,” many in the media managed to keep the hype train that Reggie Bush rolled in on stoked for a year or two.

Eventually, Bush revealed himself to be what he always was: a third-down back and kick returner with home-run ability. Young’s “ugly” eventually overwhelmed his “gritty,” and got both he and Jeff Fisher run out of Nashville. Williams eventually developed into the dominant, prototypical defensive end the Texans thought they were getting. You’d think, after all this, that we’d have learned about rookies and the short term . . . but of course, the football hivemind never truly learns.

The Lions find themselves in a particularly tricky spot: their “window” is opening this year. To the extent there will be an NFC in 2011, the Lions are expected to contend for a playoff spot within it. They have a few pressing short-term needs, though; any they fill will drastically boost their chances to make the playoffs, and make some noise therein. Unfortunately, they’re stuck in slot 13, and none of the top prospects at the Lions’ need positions figure to be available. Likely, the Lions will have to pick between two poisons: reach for a need, or the dreaded “luxury pick.” Either way, the Lions will have a hard time impressing those who grade drafts by instant impact.

Two years ago, Forbes.com’s Monte Burke dissected the prior three years’ drafts. He assigned a score to each team based on how many of their picks were still on the roster. He added a small boost—but not much of one—for Pro Bowlers and All-Pros (after all, many are granted those awards based on reputation alone). His dubious conclusions: the Texans were the best-drafting team in the NFL, while the Patriots and Steelers were the worst and third-worst, respectively.

He chalks the Patriots’ lack of success up to having to pick late in every round, and suggests their keen nose for value in the free-agent market has made up for their blundering inability to pick good players. Here, however, are all the Patriots’ first-round  picks since Belichick took over: Devin McCourty, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Meriweather, Laurence Maroney, Logan Mankins, Vince Wilfork, Ben Watson, Ty Warren, Daniel Graham, Richard Seymour, Damien Woody, Andy Katzenmoyer, Robert Edwards, Tebucky Jones, Chris Canty, and Terry Glenn.  Out of 16 picks, that’s at least thirteen solid contributors—and, by my count, ten difference-making pros. I doubt you’ll find another team with a better track record.

How come, then, so few of the Patriots' draft picks stick around? Because it’s hard to make the Patriots’ roster. The Pats have been stacked for a decade, and they’re run by a ruthless dictator who knows exactly what he wants at every position. Every year, their fourth-, fifth-, sixth-, and seventh-round picks must amaze in training camp, or be sent packing. It’s not that the Pats can’t draft; there’s just no room on their roster for long-term backups; either they’ll be starting in three years, or they’re out. Drafting later in the first actually makes it easier on the Pats; they can draft to fit one of their few needs (like Logan Mankins) without blowing a huge amount of salary—or expecting that player to make an impact on day one.

But what about the other poison, the luxury pick?  Turns out, the Steelers are a great example of that, as well. Back in 2007, the Steelers’ linebacking corps—as always, the strength of the team—consisted of James Harrison, James Farrior, Larry Foote, and Clark Haggans. They were 29, 32, 27, and 30, respectively; all in their primes. So, who did the Steelers draft that spring? In the first round, with the 15th overall pick, they chose Lawrence Timmons, an inside linebacker. In the second round, with the 14th pick, they took outside linebacker LaMarr Woodley.

What on earth were the Steelers thinking?  Well, the year after that, Haggans left as a free agent. The year after that, Woodley had a breakout year in his first as a starter, and Foote was made expendable by the growth of Timmons. They released Foote after winning a Super Bowl with their “luxury picks” leading the way—and the Steelers continued to be great at what they’re great at without missing a beat. By drafting high at a position of current strength, with an eye towards a year or two down the road, the Steelers maintained their perpetual success . . . it’s what great teams do.

So, when the Lions are on the clock—presuming they stay at 13—they’ll be faced with this choice. What they WON’T do is what the Lions did in 2008: gather their list of immediate needs and draft at those positions, crossing them off with a crayon as they go. With the 2007 2.14, the Steelers drafted LaMarr Woodley because they knew they’d need a new outside linebacker in 2008. With the 2008 2.14, the Lions drafted Jordon Dizon because they needed a middle linebacker to start right away. They didn’t “fill the hole” because Dizon couldn’t fill that hole. They didn’t “meet their needs” because Dizon couldn’t meet that need.

Despite the CBA uncertainty putting the kibosh on free agency, the Lions cannot approach the draft as a way to meet immediate needs—not without moving up and getting a true blue-chipper. They may take a good player to fill a less flashy need, like OLB or safety. They may take a talented project who has no chance of cracking the starting lineup this year—like an OT or DE. But what I said last month holds true:

Not every good player is an instant-impact player. Not every instant-impact player evolves into a Hall of Famer. “Great for a rookie” is only “decent” overall. As the Lions round the bend into this draft season, they do so with only a few pressing needs. I trust the Lions leadership not to reach for those needs, but I’m cautioning us as fans to do the same. As this roster matures, the Lions should indeed be drafting to develop, not to start; the second- or third-round pick may not start right away and that’s okay. The likes of Sammie Hill will have to hustle to make the team, and that’s okay. The Lions have a much bigger need for a Mike Williams type, who slowly develops into a quality starter, than a Michael Clayton—who set the world on fire in his rookie year, and has barely moved the needle since.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,pittsburgh steelers,new england patriots

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Lions to Trade for Seahawks LG Rob Sims?

NFL.com’s Jason LaCanfora is reporting that the Lions may trade for Seattle LG Rob Sims.  Sims, who’s tendered at the fourth-round level, could presumably had for that much, or even less, in a trade.  According to Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Bears have offered now-surplus DE Alex Brown, but the Seahawks weren’t interested in taking on Brown’s salary.

Of course, my curiosity was immediately piqued. Why are they letting him go so cheaply?  Sims is a 6’-3”, 312-pound, 26-year-old three-year starter, just four years removed from being drafted in the fourth round.  A torn pectoral muscle did end Sims’ 2007 season, but it obviously hasn’t affected his performance; his 2009 season was graded out as one of the ten best in the NFL by Profootballfocus.com.

Sean Jensen gives us a clue:

According to one source, Sims is deemed expendable because new offensive line coach Alex Gibbs is more inclined to work with players with whom he's more familiar.

Ahhhh, that old chestnut again: one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.  In the NFL, everything is insanely competitive, every edge honed down to the finest degree. From college scouting, to college all-star games, to the Combine, to the draft, teams relentlessly sift through mountains of game film and scouting reports trying to find just a few nuggets of gold.  That’s just the beginning, though, as teams also scout their own players, and every other team’s players, as well.

Any advantage one team can get over another, so matter how small, is precious.  Any trade they can consummate, any free agent signing they can make, any waiver priority they can leverage, any possible upgrade in talent must be ceaselessly pursued.  We saw it when the Lions and Steelers stared each other down over Larry Foote: the Steelers were asking for more than the seventh-round pick the Lions had offered, and the Lions refused to play ball.  Why?  Because renting a veteran starter at a position of need wasn’t worth sacrificing a chance at drafting an Aaron Brown or a Sammie Hill.

The only exception to this dog-eat-dog environment, where teams fight and scrap over every ounce of perceived value, comes when a team changes schemes—at which point, excellent young veterans are put to the curb with a “$5” sign propped up against them.

Whether the Lions may get him for less than the advertised fourth-round price, or simply sign him to an offer sheet the Seahawks won’t match, Sims would immediately step in as a all-too-rare foundational player, a young veteran just entering his prime.  He’d bring the stability to the left guard position that hasn’t been there since . . . well, since I can remember.  Does Dave Lutz count?

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,nfl,seattle seahawks,nfl free agency,rob sims

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the pills tell me I’m not crazy

Yesterday, FOXsports.com writer, and Sirius NFL radio host,  Adam Schein posted one of his “Schein’s Nine” pieces, similar to Peter King’s “Ten Things I Think I Think”.  The final item certainly turned my head: Packers cornerback Al Harris proclaiming that the Lions can win eight games this season.  Per Schein, Harris is enamored of the Lions’ new coaching staff—not only The Grandmaster, but new coordinators Cunningham and Linehan.  He likes the way the Lions have set up the quarterback position, the way they ran their draft, and the impact veterans brought in—especially the new linebackers, Julian Peterson and Larry Foote.

Predictably, Schein then distances himself as far as possible from this bold proclamation, saying the Lions have “no shot” at winning eight games.  What absolutely floors me about this, is that most of the NFL media spent all of last year marvelling at the incredible job that the Dolphins and Falcons did in turning their franchise around, and consequently spent all spring babbling about teams switching coaches and drafting players and signing free agents to follow their blueprint, and yammering on about which team will be “this year’s Dolphins” . . . and yet when presented with a smart, veteran football player with a deep passion not only for playing the game, but the business of the game, saying that a division rival could pull off an eight-win improvement, it’s laughable.  Ridiculous.  “No shot”.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not putting money on the Lions playing .500 ball this year—I predicted them to go 7-9, remember—but it goes to show what creatures of habit, routine, and expectation we are.  It can’t be impossible for an NFL club to rise from the very, very depths of the NFL to win double-digit games, without making a huge, splashy move—we’ve just seen TWO teams do it!  Neither the Fins nor Falcons dropped $100M on a megastar.  Neither the Fins nor Falcons hired The Hot Candidate to coach their team; I bet you most NFL fans still couldn’t bring Mike Smith’s name to their tongues.  Neither the Fins nor Falcons got a lot of attention for the important moves they did make; each added quality veterans like Chad Pennington and Michael Turner.

NFL fans and media spent all spring talking about following these two teams’ “blueprint” for success--but very few of those people seem to understand what that blueprint is, what was successful about it, and how teams are going about replicating it.  Of course, much time has been wasted scouring NFL depth charts, looking for wideouts and tailbacks who played quarterback at some post-Pop Warner  point in their careers, so they can be floated as possible candidates to “run the wildcat” . . . but the Wildcat isn't “the blueprint”, it's a PRODUCT of the blueprint.  The Dolphins thinking of, testing, tuning, and deploying the Wildcat formation in the NFL last season is the product of having good coaches at every level of the staff, a deep and talented roster, and a franchise-wide committment to quality and innovation.

Again, I am not floating the Lions as a potential playoff team.  I’m not saying that if you think the Lions will only win five games (Schein’s prediction), that you’re a moron.  All I’m saying is, in the NFL, on any given Sunday—and in any given season—anything can happen.  No team ever has “no shot” to win big (or lose big), especially when we’re still on this side of training camp.

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every dog has his day

Unlike when a new executive is brought in from another team, when Martin Mayhew was promoted to GM, he was already intimately familiar with his roster: a group of 53 players, plus a host of players on IR, plus practice-squadders, that had completed the NFL’s only 0-16 season just the day before.  He knew the strengths and weaknesses of all of them; he’d presumably argued either for or against the acquisition of almost every one.  Therefore, when he was handed that roster and told to make a winning football team, he knew he had a long, hard road in front of him.

First, of course, he had to establish a long-term vision for the kind of team they want to build—both with his front officemate, President Tom Lewand, and then his head coach, Jim Schwartz.  Then, he could go to work: subtracting players who didn’t fit that vision, and adding players who did.  Unfortunately, you can’t turn over an entire roster in one offseason; it’s just not possible.  Moreover, even between the draft and free agency, all of the players needed to fill the long-term vision almost certainly won’t be available the year you establish that vision.  That means that when Martin Mayhew went roster-building, he had to continually keep in mind that the point wasn’t to do whatever it took to maximize the Lions’ win total in 2009—it was to actually build the roster.

There’s been a bit of handwringing over how most of these changes have left the Lions--theoretically a youthful team starting from the ground up--actually quite old.  I’ve commented before that between Grady Jackson, (possibly) Kevin Carter, Larry Foote, Julian Peterson, Anthony Henry, and Philip Buchanon, the Lions’ defense would be the best in the league if it was 2004 now.   However, this is where you have to keep in mind the above.  The Lions were acquiring the kinds of players they need to win, because they couldn't possibly acquire all the specifc players they need to win in one spring.  However, pay close attention, because from here on out, the rookies that the Lions draft, and the young veterans they sign to long contracts, will fill those same roles.  DeAndre Levy could become quickly become young Larry Foote.  Sammie Lee Hill could develop into young Grady Jackson.  Louis Delmas could quickly become young Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu—and believe me, if Troy Polamalu had been past his prime and available as an affordable free agent, the Lions would have done everything they could to get him in here.

The key here is remembering that the older stopgaps are just that—stopgaps.  They might work out beautifully, giving the Lions a couple of very productive years, like Dan Wilkinson did earlier this decade.  They might already be out of gas, and barely see the field.  The beautiful part is that none of these “graybeards” have been signed to extensive deals.  Beyond Julian Peterson and Philip Buchanon—both on the right side of 32—the veteran acquisitions are all on one- or two-year deals.  Mayhew and the Lions could easily wash their hands of any of them.

As oft as Matt Millen is excoriated for his awful drafting, I think that has more to do with the visibility that comes with being in the top ten every year—the Eagles have been just as prolific and putrid as the Lions in taking first-round wideouts.  I really think it’s his free agent signings that sunk the team.  Over and over again, he’d make a huge splash by giving all the money in the world to the best available guy who played the position he wanted to address.  As one example, he backed up the Brinks truck for Dre’ Bly—an undersized speed-and-coverage cornerback—while his defensive coordinator was Kurt Schottenheimer, who preferred very physical press coverage.  Why?  The Lions were desperate for cornerback help, and Bly was the best one available.  To Millen, it didn’t matter that Bly didn’t fit the vision, it didn’t matter that Bly’s mouth was even bigger than his sizable talent, and it didn’t matter that the enormous money would chain the Lions to Bly for the next several years--he just needed to fill that hole.

Come next spring, the veterans that didn’t work out—or were eclipsed by younger players—will be let go, and another big infusion of players who fit the vision will be brought in.  This time next season, I really believe that we will see a Detroit Lions roster that is very young, very talented, and very close to the kind of team that Mayhew, Lewand, and Schwartz have meant to build.

As for now . . . well, let these old dogs have their day.  We might be surprised.

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key performance indicators

In business, the traditional ways of measuring success are with the broad overall goals: sales, revenue, profit-and-loss.  Are sales up or down?  Are costs up or down?  Is the profit margin higher this quarter compared to last?  Compared to the same quarter last year?  These are all different ways of asking the same question--the BIG question: whether the company is making money.  That’s the bottom line, after all; success for a business is defined by making money, and the traditional metrics of success all focus on that.

However, a business is more complicated than that (and forgive, businessmen out there, if I’m serenading you with the business equivalent of “Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star”).  A simple evaluation based on whether the company is currently making money doesn’t provide any insight into whether the company is healthy and growing, whether that growth, if it exists, is sustainable, or if the company will still be profitable a year from now.  For that deeper insight, businesses look at more difficult-to-quantify, but possibly more valuable, ‘Key Performance Indicators’.  KPIs might be things like new customer retention, talent retention, customer willingness to recommend, etc.  If the business has had a tough quarter, that might be the result of broader economic trends or factors—but if new customers are increasingly loving the product and telling all their friends, the core business might be in a great position for growth.

Tomorrow, the Lions open a three-day minicamp.  This minicamp will be the first practice with pads, helmets, veterans, rookies, blocking, tackling, lifting, film, and everything else that comes with real, actual football.  This will be the first time that the Lions’ staff will get a chance to really evaluate most of the positions—you can’t evaluate the O-line, tight ends, or anyone on the defense when full-speed blocking and tackling aren’t allowed.  It will also be the first time that the rookies and veterans will practice and compete for jobs together—not rookies versus rookies, or vets versus vets, but the entire roster starting with a level playing field—in a drastic departure from the prior regime, there will be no depth chart until deep into training camp.

We won’t get to see this First Real Football in detail.  There won’t be any TV broadcast we can TiVO and replay.  There won’t be any live streaming play-by-play.  There probably won’t be any live Tweeting, either (since the Twitter-savviest Detroit sports journalist, Greg Eno, has informed me he won’t be there).  And of course, we won't have any of the typical measures of football success to go by--yards, points, wins, or losses.  So, we’ll have to wade knee-deep into the stream of quotes, blurbs, blogs, and articles that will flow through our favored information channels in the nights and days following these practices, and hope to catch some fish of truth*.

I’ve identified a few KPIs that Lions observers should watch with interest:

• The WRs vs. the DBs:  Calvin “Megatron” Johnson is awesome.  He’s completely sweet.  This is essentially the only known quantity on the Lions’ roster; we know that Megatron can and will match up against the very best the NFL has to offer—and will produce no matter how awful whoever’s throwing him the ball is.  This will allow us to measure what might be this team’s greatest on-paper weakness: the cornerback position.  Buchanon and Henry—and, if Henry slides back to safety . . . *gulp* . . . Eric King—lining up across from Megatron will give us a concrete idea of just how bad things will be for us at corner.  Will he dominate?  Most likely.  But the difference between him dominating, and him being completely unstoppable, could also be the difference between shutting down a Bernard Berrien—or not. 
• The interior OL vs. the interior DL:  Cliff Avril, in a recent interview on  Sirius NFL Radio, revealed that with DT Grady Jackson working out lightly at home, fourth-round rookie Sammie Hill has been running with the ones.  Hill, a very raw athletic talent, will get invaluable reps against smart, tough veteran center Dominic Raiola, and . . . a couple of other guys.  Raiola, of course, will be giving up somewhere between 20 and 40 pounds to the big youngster, but we’ll get a good sense of exactly how raw Hill is by how much of that size advantage Raiola will be able to neutralize with leverage, footwork, and technique.  Also, we’ll get a sense of which of the many mountain-sized men the Lions have acquired this offseason will be playing on either side of Raiola.  Young veterans Daniel Loper and Stephen Peterman are thought to have the inside track on the left and right guard spots, respectively--but Loper’s 6’-6” frame is probably better suited to tackle, and Peterman has been inconsistent at best throughout his career.  The Lions’ leadership is thought to believe that with the shift from a pass-heavy zone blocking scheme to a traditional, run-first, drive blocking scheme, will emphasize Peterman’s strengths and conceal his weaknesses.  Also, new OL coach George Yarno was Peterman’s OL coach at LSU, so he may be able to draw out the best in the former third-rounder.  Seeing how these two—or others—fare versus the Lions’ iffy, depleted, and very young DT corps will go a long way toward revealing just how much all these OL acquisitions have bolstered the line.
• The voice of the defense:  Lions fans everywhere jumped for joy when veteran MLB—and Detroit native, and U-M alum—Larry Foote forced his release from the Super-Bowl-winning Pittsburgh Steelers, and signed with the 0-16 Detroit Lions.  It was presumed that he’d be the “thumper” in the middle of the defense that the Lions seemed to have failed to acquire, and was also presumed to be the new veteran leader of the defense.  However, rookie S Louis Delmas took that role upon himself in the rookie-only minicamp, rallying his unitmates, and bantering constantly with QB Matt Stafford.  It will be interesting to see how these two interact with each other, and the rest of the defense.  Will their big-time personalities mesh—like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in Baltimore, and like Foote and Troy Polamalu did in Pittsburgh?  Or, will they clash?  This weekend will be the first indication we’ll get which of the new prized cattle is wearing the bell.
• The impact of the linebackers: On a team rated a putrid, horrible, awful, wretched, nasty, rotten, worthless 65 overall in Madden 2010, the Lions still have the 5th-highest-rated linebacking corps.  The veteran additions—Foote, and former Spartan Julian Peterson—will join Ernie Sims to form the most athletic and aggressive Lions linebacking corps since the late 80’s /early 90s groups that featured Chris Spielman, Mike Cofer, and others.  Moreover, they’ll have the confining, one-gap, stay-at-home, short-zone leashes attached to them by the Tampa 2 defense taken off, and their jobs will be honed down to two things: running upfield, and killing people.  Ernie Sims, I suspect, will have a dramatic renaissance in this scheme, living up to his impressive potential.  Even though Peterson and Foote have limitations in coverage, their games are both beautifully suited to this new Guntherball scheme as well.  Also, look out for Jordon Dizon; Cunningham seems to like him as well, and he should see a lot of time in the nickel packages.  Since we know that tackles Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus—and new acquisitions like Jon Jansen and Ephraim Salaam—struggle against speed off the edge, hope for the outside linebackers to be very disruptive.  They will not be allowed to actually punish the quarterbacks at this stage of the offseason, but if the news comes back that the linebackers are overwhelming the offensive line, then that is good news indeed.

*”Fish of Truth” is a good name for a band.

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larry foote, finally home

As Dave Birkett reported--and I subsequently Tweeted--last night, Larry Foote is officially a Detroit Lion.

The subsequent celebration throughout the Lions blogosphere has been predictable.  From speculation that Mayhew and The Grandmaster had this move in mind throughout the draft, to joyous shouts of "Aaron Curry who?" on forums (yes, really), the verdict from Lions fans is in: the signing of Larry Foote is an unqualified home run.

It's not that I disagree.  Foote is a veteran inside linebacker, a proven run-stopper, and has been one of the leaders of the best defense in football--a defense which boasts two Super Bowl titles in the past three years.  In those same three years, the Lions' roster has been completely turned over; only a handful of players were even here for the Mariucci days.  At this point, the Lions' defense is a clean slate--player-wise, extremely young, and scheme-wise, they're starting from scratch.  A "thumper" DeAndre Levy might be, but he has no idea what day-to-day life in the NFL is like.  He's never had to take on a NFL fullback, get an NFL guard's hands off him, or square up and wrap up an NFL tailback.  Foote, however, has been to the mountaintop--twice.  His understanding of how to play, how to practice, how to expect victory, and how to execute under pressure, all of that will be absolutely invaluable to the young Lions linebackers.  In the locker room, in the film room, on the practice field, on the gridiron, and in the huddle, Larry Foote will not only be a leader of and example for the talented greenhorns this defense is being built around, he'll also provide legitimacy to the other veterans who've just been added.  Grady Jackson, Julian Peterson, Anthony Henry, and Philip Buchanon are not going to prick up their ears when DeAndre Levy speaks.  However, when Larry Foote flashes his rings, you can bet he'll have their undivided attention.

That all having been said, let's be realistic.  Foote is a very good player, but he has limitations.  He'll be strictly a two-down linebacker here; he's notoriously weak in pass coverage.  At 29, he's hardly over the hill, but the Steelers drafted Lawrence Timmons to replace him--and that's exactly what Timmons is doing.  Moreover, Foote is on a one-year deal, reportedly at his request.  This is a 'prove-it' deal, where Foote is going to try to make a big impact, and then get paid.  Will the Lions be the ones who give Larry Foote a lavish deal which he'll retire on--in what might possibly be an uncapped year?  Not if they stick to their plan of building through the draft and financial prudence, they won't.  No, this will almost certainly be DeAndre Levy's job in 2010.  Foote will enjoy being at home for a year, and with luck we'll get everything he has left while he pads out his free agent resume.  He has all the incentive in the world to have a career year . . . let's enjoy that fact, hope Levy and Sims and Dizon and Follett all learn everything they can from him, and move on.

Like Jackson, Henry, Buchanon, et. al., Foote is a stopgap; an older player who fits a need.  He's a smart, cheap, temporary acquistion.  The kind of player that he is, is the kind of player the Lions are trying to draft.  He was available, the price was right, he filled a need, and Mayhew pulled the trigger.  Today, we are not celebrating the cornerstone of the new Lions' defense being set--we're celebrating the raising of a really sharp-looking "Coming Soon" sign.

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larry foote released -- yes, actually

Sam Farmer of the LA Times just Tweeted that Larry Foote has been really, truly, actually released.  Kudos again to Martin Mayhew for standing strong and not giving up a fifth- or sixth-rounder, and also taking on a bad contract.

Clock's ticking, Mr. Mayhew.

PFT's got a story up, now.

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larry foote released - or not

UPDATE WHICH SUPERCEDES ALL PREVIOUS UPDATES:

Killer's now reporting that Foote has NOT been released, and while the speculation is that he'll be released after this weekend's minicamp as insurance against any injury to Timmons, that's far from a done deal.  More updates as they come . . .

As I tweeted a few minutes ago, the Steelers have released ILB Larry Foote.  Foote hails from the Detroit area, and a friend said several months ago that Larry always wanted to finish his career in Detroit.  Foote, however, immediately shot that notion down:

"That was one of my boys just talking stupid stuff in the paper," Foote said this week. "I think all players say that toward the tail end: 'I'll just end up going home and finish up there.' But that was just talk." ... "Would somebody want me? I don't know. I've never been a free agent. I've never been on the market," he said. "I don't know if the Lions even want me. My play hasn't dropped off, just my (playing) time has dropped off. I can be as productive as any linebacker in the league with the opportunity."

Huh.  Well, Larry, now you're a free agent, and you're on the market.  Let's see if the Lions even want you . . . I can't see how they wouldn't.  Foote would immediately fill the obvious hole in the middle of the defense.  Of course, just like Grady Jackson, Foote's at the tail end of his career.  This defense is desperately in need of a leader, someone to walk into that locker room and show all the greenhorns how to win in the NFL.  Foote's a polished veteran, a skilled leader who's as valuable off the field as on.  Moreover, he's spent his entire career with the Pittsburgh Steelers--arguably the toughest and classiest organization in football.  Even more, moreover, the man has a couple of rings.  This seems like a no-brainer.

UPDATE: John Niyo gets a cookie: Foote is now openly declaring the Lions his #1 choice, the leader in the clubhouse, and in talks with his agent.  Please, for the love of Bubbles/Blades/Beast, get this deal done!

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old mother hubbard: the linebackers

Initially, I was going to break this down into the "middle linebackers" and the "outside linebackers", but . . . who are we kidding?  There isn't a natural middle linebacker on the Lions' roster.  Hence, "the linebackers":

Ernie Sims: coming out of high school, Ernie Sims was the #1 overall recruit (as ranked by Rivals.com).  It's no surprise; even in high school he had an NFL body.  He passes the eyeball test with flying colors--he has truly alarming biceps.  He selected Florida State, and after a very productive career there, was drafted by the Lions with the 8th overall pick of the 2006 draft.    There were a lot of questions about his size (listed at 6'-0", 220; perhaps in platform shoes?), but as Sims said, "When I tackle a person, they don't ask me how tall I am".  Sims was rampantly compared to fellow FSU standout and Tampa 2 LB Derrick Brooks, though Brooks is taller, leaner, slightly faster, and a SSLB--much more like former Lions LB Boss Bailey.  In his first season, Sims was a force, leading the Lions in tackles (124, 81 solo) and often looking like the only guy out there.  The sky seemed like the limit, and I started saving up for an Ernie Sims jersey.  He took a small step forward in productivity in 2007 (134 tackles, 91 solo, 1 sack, 1 INT), but compared to expectations he underperformed.   He also looked like he was freelancing at times, overpursuing in the run game and getting caught out-of-position in the pass game--both cardinal sins in the Tampa 2, which relies on everyone staying home and removing options for the offense.  Sims REALLY started freelancing this season, trying to do everything himself, MUCH to the detriment of the defense.  Sims's productivity fell way off (113 tackles, 71 solo, 1 sack), and he often seemed to disappear out there.  My personal theory is that Sims lost all respect for the defensive coaching staff and the system they taught.  Whether he wasn't going full speed, or he was playing with total disregard for the system, Sims was definitely mentally checked out.  I think a switch to a system where he gets to blitz, to attack, to run downhill and hit people will be MUCH more to his liking.  Sims was named as one of the "three untouchable Lions" by NFL.com's Adam Schefter, and there's a good reason why.  Sims' athletic ability is incredible, and when he's engaged he plays with tremendous fire and passion.  In a traditional 4-3, where the WLB is asked to attack, attack, attack, I think Ernie Sims could be a tremendous force; a perennial Pro Bowl level defender.  In a 3-4, Sims could pair with Cliff Avril to make a vicious OLB combo reminiscent of the Steelers' Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison.  Bottom line:  Sims mailed it in last year, but I expect a Pro Bowl year from him this year, regardless of alignment.  Schwartz and Gunther will know how to use this enormous talent.

Jordon Dizon:  Who knows?  Incomplete.

Paris Lenon:   . . . I'm not going to get away with that one, am I?

Jordon Dizon:  He was the Lions second-round pick in the 2008 draft, one where every early pick was desperately needed to contribute in order to avoid a disaster . . . and he didn't . . . and they didn't.  The confusion, inconsistency of vision, and infighting amongst the Lions over Jordon Dizon was one of the key examples of why the Lions went 0-16.  Dizon was extremely productive at Colorado.  Despite being a little undersized for a Mike, even by college standards (6'-0", 229#), Dizon was a four-year starter who slid between the Mike and Will spots.  He finished at Colorado with 463 tackles, eighth-best in D-I history, and after his senior year was Big XII Defensive Player of the Year (please refrain from making the obvious Big XII/Defense/oxymoron jokes).  Here is what I believe is the timeline of what went down:

* Millen and Marinelli agree that the Lions need a middle linebacker, preferably the kind with "of the future" attached to his position designation.

* Millen and Marinelli agree that Jordon Dizon has the talent, instincts, and frame to someday be a great middle linebacker in the Tampa 2 system.

* Millen drafts Jordon Dizon in the second round.

* Millen presents Marinelli with Dizon and demands he install him as the MLB.

* Marinelli retorts that Dizon will not be mentally or physically ready to play MLB for at least a year, maybe two, and should start off on the strong side while Paris Lenon brings the mediocrity.

* Millen insists.

* Dizon holds out of the first week of training camp, missing the installation of the base defense and killing any chance he had of making an impact at MLB in 2008.

* Marinelli plants Dizon's butt on the third-string bench behind Buster Davis.

* Millen cuts Buster Davis.

* Millen is fired.

* Marinelli immediately switches Dizon to the strong side, where he is promptly injured and lost for the year.

Bottom line:  From what very, very, very little we have seen, Dizon is a short-term project at SLB, long-term project at MLB, and possibly too small for either--essentially the second coming of Teddy Lehman.

Paris Lenon:  Paris Lenon is the man Lions fans love to hate.  Listed at 6'-2", 235 lbs., Paris Lenon is--by far--the biggest linebacker on the Lions roster.  An undrafted free agent who paid his dues in NFL Europe and the XFL, Lenon has been very steady, really hardworking, and totally unspectacular.  He hasn't missed a game since 2002--and even though he's arguably a natural SLB, he's started every game at middle linebacker throughout his tenure with the Lions.  He doesn't posess great size, speed, or strength, but he's one of the few sound tacklers out there for the Lions, and he keeps his wits about him out there.  If the Lions are going to play an attacking 4-3, Lenon absolutely cannot be the starting MLB.  The Lions must acquire a real MLB with a frame that lets him athletically carry 245 pounds or more, let Lenon back him up, or fight Dizon, and Ryan Nece fight for snaps on the strong side.  In a 3-4, the Lions will have to both sign a veteran starter AND burn one of the first five draft picks on an MLB.   Bottom line: Lenon is an okay starter/terrific backup SSLB with a high motor, playing WAY out-of-position at MLB.

Ryan Nece:  Another of the Tampa Bay Misfit Toys, Ryan Nece was signed just before the season opened, and very soon found himself the starting SSLB.  Weighing in at 6'-3", 224 pounds, I completely wrote Nece off--just another skinny OLB off the trash pile, right?  However, Nece is a man full of surprises: his father is Hall of Fame safety Ronnie Lott.  Moreover, while Nece didn't have his pinky finger cut off to stay on the field last year, he played with an impressive amount of fire and tenacity.  He pulled down 68 tackles (45 solo) and 1.5 sacks in just 10 starts.  He's not a long-term solution--at age 29 he'll never be any better than he is right now--but he was more than worth the street FA contract he signed.  He's also a quality special-teamer, many of whom got run off by Marinelli's "I don't waste roster spots on special teamers" approach.  Bottom line: excellent heart, attitude, depth, special teams ability, no contract to speak of.  If he stays on the roster, I don't mind at all--but I'd hope Dizon or Lenon could beat him out for the starting SSLB gig.

Alex Lewis: 6'-0", 230 lbs.  Fast.  Athletic.  Can't tackle.  Good special teamer.

Anthony Cannon: 6'-0", 228 lbs.  Fast.  Athletic.  Can't tackle.  Good special teamer.

SUMMARY:  Sims should be an impact player at the weakside, and between Lennon and Dizon the strongside should be handled as well.  However, the Lions absolutely must address the middle linebacker position, preferably through both free agency and one of the first five picks of the draft.  Paris Lenon is small for an NFL linebacke, but is the biggest of the bunch.  In an aggressive 4-3, the MLB must be a traditional run-stopper like--speaking strictly hypothetically (wink, wink)--James Laurenitis of Ohio State.  In a 3-4, the Lions may have several quality veteran starters on the free agent market to pursue: young standout veteran Dolphin Channing Crowder (who I was rooting for us to draft originally) is one example.  In a bizarre but intriguing piece of news, a close friend of Pittsburgh stalwart ILB Larry Foote told the Free Press Foote would love to come to Detroit--much like his old teammate Earl Holmes did.  Larry, good God, would we love to have you.  The Lions would have to both sign AND draft multiple MLBs to switch to a 3-4, though; Lenon is currently the only "MLB" on the depth chart.

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