three cups deep: at new orleans

In between church and my 10-year high school reunion, I swung the family truckster back home.  My intent was to trim and/or shave the steel wool that sprouts, unbidden, from my face and neck—but the timing was such that with the volume cranked, I could catch the first couple of drives.  By the time I’d finished trimming, shaving, and getting back in the car, the Lions were already down by 14.

I felt a sickening chill in my belly, and a fell curse haunted my thoughts: “Just like last year.”  The only thing I couldn't bear was already transpiring: on the road against an NFC South team, two breathtakingly quick scores out of their explosive passing offense, and the Lions had an L on their record before the first half of the first quarter.  Just like last year . . . only, not quite.

Don’t forget, last season the Lions were coming off of a 7-9 season (after a 6-2 start), and thinking playoffs, while the Falcons were coming off a worse-than-the-record-indicates 4-12 season, where the wheels completely fell off of the bus.  The Lions being down so far so fast was a complete stunner, a shock to the system.

This, however, was exactly what many predicted: Drew Brees exposing a questionable secondary.  While it all seemed painfully familiar, this was anything but a surprise—the Lions are an experiment in slash-and-burn football team agriculture, and the Saints are likely Super Bowl contenders.  In hindsight, what’s most painful to me is how despite Drew Brees threw six touchdown passes, and Matt Stafford threw three picks, for most of the game, the Lions were still in it.

Yes, thanks to a INT by a Lions cornerback (!), two forced and recovered fumbles, one returned for a TD (!!), and a kick and punt return that each went deep into the red zone (!!!), the Lions kept this one within two scores for most of the game.  And that, folks, is really the crucial difference between this year’s opener and last: 0-14 wasn’t the end of it.

Instead of going into full-on meltdown mode, the Lions’ D stiffened up, forcing two straight punts.  The O finally got on board with a field goal and a TD. Stafford threw a pick, but Dewayne White blocked the Saints' ensuing FG attempt. Stafford then hit Megatron for an apparent 67-yard TD--and after about 30 minutes of the refs playing Keystone Cops, Stafford punched it in himself. It went on like this, with the Lions (mostly) keeping the bleeding to a minimum, often failing to maximize their ensuing opportunities, but never totally collapsing. All the way up until the very end, the Lions were fighting tooth and nail, making plays to stay in it.

There were some things I saw that I didn't expect to see, though: after talking for months about how he was going to get after the QB, Gun actually went back into a shell after the first two bombs. I've noticed some grumbling about how he didn't bring the heat like he said he would, but let's face it: that's smart coaching. If the other team's quarterback is gashing your man coverage for 20-to-30 yards every time he drops back to pass, blitzing 40% of the time simply isn't an option.

Also, after being pretty damn accurate with his downfield passes all preseason, Stafford looked quite jittery; after throwing a lot of passes short in the first half, they all started sailing on him in the second half. He also threw one of his picks when he pump-faked and the ball slipped in his hand, producing a knuckleball that wasn't anywhere near where he intended.  Yes, Matt Stafford looked like a rookie--and while it's possible that Culpepper's veteran presence might have saved a turnover or two, I don't think the offense would have been much more effective--and it wouldn't have mattered anyway; the Saints were just too good.

This has been the crux of the "Start Stafford" argument all along: even if Culpepper is marginally better, him playing over Stafford wouldn't make much difference in terms of wins and losses--and even it would, one or two more wins on a 4-12 team won't matter anyway. According to the broadcasters, Stafford watched every game of Greg Williams' defenses for the last five years on film to prepare for this week; tying that to 60 minutes of live game experience is invaluable experience to a rookie. I still think that Schwartz made the right decision.

In the end, Drew Brees was just too much for guys like Eric King, who was starting in place of Philip Buchanon. Drew Brees was too much for Marquand Manuel. Drew Brees was too much for Avril and White, despite being without his blindside protector, Jammal Brown, and losing Brown's backup in the middle of the game. The Saints were the best offense in football last year, and show no signs of slowing down. Moroever, their defense appears to be dramatically improved, too; they're legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Whereas last year's Week 1 loss had us stunned, reeling, and searching for answers, this game showed us exactly what we, or at least I, expected to see: a shootout that the Lions lose. Believe it or not, the Lions never mustered this many points in any game last season! Now next week's task will be swing the every needle 180 degrees except the one for "Degree of Difficulty": the Vikings have an astounding running game, a lackluster passing game, and a suffocating defense that you can't run on; pressuring QBs and covering WRs without blitzing. I'll be there in person to see how the Lions adjust.

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the secondary is dead, long live the secondary

Ever since the brutal injuries to cornerback Bryant Westbrook and safety Kurt Schultz during the 2000 season, the Lions have been absolutely desperate for help in the secondary.  With the possible exception of the offensive line, the defensive backfield has been the most consistently disappointing Lions unit on the field over the past decade.  However, unlike the offensive line, disappointment has been the only thing consistent about the Lions' secondary.  While the offensive line has had the same left tackle and center for nearly a decade, it seems as though every year brings a new "secondary overhaul" . . . and every year brings more disappointment.

2001: Signed CB Todd Lyght, CB/S Robert Bailey, and S Chidi Iwouma.  Subtracted S Corwin Brown, CB Darnell Walker, and CB Marquis Walker.

2002: Drafted CB Andre Goodman and CB Chris Cash; signed S Corey Harris, S Brian Walker, CB Eric Davis, and S Bracey Walker.  Subtracted Terry Fair, Ron Rice, Kurt Schultz,  Robert Bailey, and Chidi Iwouma.

2003: Signed CB Dre' Bly, CB Otis Smith, and drafted S Terry Holt.  Subtracted Todd Lyght and Eric Davis.

2004: Signed CB Fernando Bryant, S Brock Marion, S Vernon Fox, and drafted CB Keith Smith.  Subtracted Brian Walker and Corey Harris.

2005: Signed S Kennoy Kennedy, CB R.W. McQuarters, and S Jon McGraw; drafted CB Stanley Wilson.  Subtracted Brock Marion and Chris Cash.

2006: Drafted S Daniel Bullocks and signed CB Jamar Fletcher.  Subtracted Andre Goodman, R.W. McQuarters, Bracey Walker, and Vernon Fox.

2007: Drafted S Gerald Alexander, CB A.J. Davis, and CB Ramzee Robinson; signed CB Travis Fisher.  Subtracted Dre Bly, Terry Holt, Jamar Fletcher, and Jon McGraw.

2008: Traded for CB Leigh Bodden, and signed S Dwight Smith, S Kalvin Person, and CB Brian Kelly.  Subtracted Fernando Bryant, Kennoy Kennedy, and Stanley Wilson . . . and Brian Kelly.

2009: Drafted S Louis Delmas, and signed CB Philip Buchanon, CB/S Anthony Henry, CB Eric King, and S Marquand Manuel.  Subtracted Leigh Bodden, Travis Fisher, and Dwight Smith.

That is an extraordinary amount of roster churn.  Lest you think these are mostly bottom-feeders, I made sure not to mention any player that didn't play at least 10 games in a season for the Lions.  If you look closely, the Lions brought in two or more new starters in the backfield almost every single year since Millen took over.  There was absolutely zero consistency.  Outside of Dre' Bly and Fernando Bryant, I don't think any player on this list started more than two consecutive years . . . and thanks to injuries, Bly and Bryant were almost never on the field at the same time in four seasons!

Unfortunately, it looks like this year's overhaul is D.O.A.  After jettisoning most of the depth chart at cornerback, the Lions traded Jon Kitna to Dallas for Anthony Henry, signed Philip Buchanon from Tampa Bay, and signed Titans nickel/dime guy Eric King.  The Lions then drafted Louis Delmas in the second round to make a very talented young trio of Daniel Bullocks and Gerald Alexander.  Veterans Kalvin Pearson and Stu Schweigart made for solid depth.  Then, oddly, the Lions added journeyman safety Marquand Manuel . . . it seemed to make no sense.  Wasn't there already a logjam at safety?  Bullocks should be pencilled in next to Delmas, Alexander is allegedly healthy, Pearson is an adequate SS, and Schweigart is a talented enigma . . . where would Manuel fit?  Even if Pearson's too limited to play in Schwartz/Cunningham's symmetrical defense,  and Schwiegart is strictly depth, shouldn't Manuel be trapped firmly beneath Bullocks and Alexander?

Apparently not.  According to Tom Kowalski, Bullocks regressed badly throughout the season, "missed even more time during this off-season" (?!?), and is "way behind the rest of the veterans".  This is dismaying, to say the least.  If Bullocks is not only not reminding people of 2006, but way behind guys like Manuel, Pearson, and Schweigart?  He'll honestly have a fight to make the team.  In fact, he almost surely will, because Killer then went and penned another major bummer of an article . . .

If Henry slides back to safety, that means that he, Alexander, Bullocks, Manuel, Pearson, and Schweigart are all fighting for one starting spot, and maybe two reserve positions.  Pearson, the most obvious cut, is a special teams ace, so maybe not.  Schweigart's a local-ish product and a fan favorite, but unless he returns to his '05 form, I don't see him escaping the axe.  That leaves Henry and Alexander as the most likely prospects to start next to Delmas, with the loser of that battle fighting Manuel and Bullocks for the third-safety spot.  That's a nice mix of youth, talent, experience, skill, and depth at the two safety spots, then.  But, what about the corners?

Oh my stars and garters.

If Henry slides back to safety, the #1 corner is Philip Buchanon.  My take on him at the time of the signing included a fair bit of optimism--as a young veteran, he possessed all the talent in the world--tempered with a good bit of realism: his production in Tampa made him a legit NFL starter, but little more.  There's no doubt that at his best, in a man-to-man scheme, he'd be a top 20, top 15 corner in this league.  However, he's never consistently played at his best, and he's always had a bit of at attitude problem, whining his way out of first Oakland, and then Houston.  That appeared to be a non-issue for the past two seasons, but attitude-problem leopards seldom change their spots.  Combine that factor with the uncertainty that is evaluating a cornerback in the Tampa Two, and you have a complete mystery as your #1 corner.

The #2 at that point would be either Eric King, or Keith Smith.  King was a sort of Plan C for the Lions.  It had been noted, almost from the day Schwartz took over, that Titans nickel corner/return specialist Chris Carr would be an ideal fit, and a priority target.  When the Lions feared missing out on Carr, they signed Eric King as insurance--another Titans corner, and also a nickel back, depending on what you read.  Titans HC Jeff Fisher:

"He played real well for us as a special teamer, he played corner for us at times and was a nickel back. He's a tough guy and a good locker room guy and a good person. Those are the kinds of players you want on your team. Eric will be successful there with whatever they ask him to do. Eric, coming in, can get the job done as a starter if that's what Jim wants to do."

I kind of find it difficult to believe that the Titans had two young corners that were good enough to start for other teams on their bench, so I kind of find it difficult to believe that the Lions are going to be okay if they're starting this King guy and Philip Buchanon at corner when toe meets leather in New Orleans.  Then there's Keith Smith, 2004 draftee who flashed some promise initially, and then languished under Marinelli.  I am consistently advised that Smith is for real, has great talent, and was simply ruined by bad coaching.  Be that as it may, ruined by bad coaching is ruined by bad coaching, and I am taking a firm believe-it-as-I see it with both of these guys.  After that is former Mr. Irrelevant, Ramzee Robinson, and depth guys Chris Roberson, Antonio Smith, and Dexter Wynn.

Right now, things are looking extremely shaky back there.  I like the safety pair of Delmas and Henry a lot--but I'd much rather have Henry be able to stay at corner with Buchanon, and Alexander or Manuel starting next to Delmas.  No matter how things shake out, though, there's no doubt that the Lions are still in desperate need of true skill and talent in the defensive backfield--and nothing will be able to change that until the snow melts in 2010.  Don't forget, this is when things look their best--heaven help the Lions' defense once injuries, fatigue, and/or underperformance cut down the Lions' DBs like weeds once more.

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the first forty eight

One of my and Mrs. Ty's guiltiest pleasures is watching late-night crime reality shows, like Forensics Files.  One of the many such shows beamed into my home from low orbit is called "The First 48", and its premise is that a homicide detective's chances of solving a case are cut in half if he or she can't pull it together in the first 48 hours.  The show then breathlessly follows a team of law enforcement agents from the time a homicide is reported, all the way through the first 48 hours of the investigation.  I have no idea if the quoted statistic is true or not, but as I sit at the computer tonight, just minutes before the first 48 hours of free agency draw to a close, I can't help but note the parallels.

In the days leading up to free agency, there's a wierd period of a few days where agents and players and teams are all doing an intricate dance, feeling each other out, hush-hush, while publicly saying nothing.  Why?  Because, of course, the league forbids any such contact until the clock strikes midnight at the end of the league year, and the free-agents-to-be become actual free agents.  Usually, there are rumblings about who might be headed where, but this year the 'tampering' escalated to unignorable levels.  This year's biggest fish, Albert Haynesworth--a man who many Lions fans were hoping would take less to rejoin The Grandmaster up here--was reported to be off the market three days before there was even supposed to be a market.

Many Lions fans and observers were irrationally hoping that the Lions would be making a big splash in the early hours, depsite repeated quotes from the men in charge that that wouldn't be happening.  Don't ask me why the Lions blogologue exploded with hate when there were no new signings as of noon on Friday; this was all foretold well in advance.  I honestly wonder who, besides Haynesworth, people were expecting the Lions to break the bank for?  However, soon there were rumblings of a coming meeting with WR Nate Washington and RB Derrick Ward, and--yes!--OG Derrick Dockery.  Then came the first slap in the face: News surfaced that Mayhew had brokered a deal with Carolina for CB Ken Lucas--but Lucas immediately nixed it, saying he wouldn't report if he was traded to the Lions.  As I said at the time, those of you out there rooting for 0-16, well, the weed of crime bears bitter fruit, you old hag.

I was both thrilled to hear this--the Lions are moving swiftly to address what I percieve to be the most glaring need, with a player I've long admired!--and crestfallen: they couldn't do it because dude would rather not play than play here.  It was right then that I realized how far uphill Martin Mayhew had to go.  Still, he filled one need (#2 RB/third down back) with the signing of Maurice Morris, and with Derrick Dockery and Nate Washington in town, I thought we had a great chance of plugging all our biggest holes on offense--save QB--without breaking the bank or giving up anything in a trade.  As I left work, I was bouyed by the notion that Mayhew saw all the holes, that he was filling the ones he could responsibly fill responsibly, and appeared to be patching up the offense and preparing to raze the defense and rebuild it from scratch.

Imagine my suprise when I turned on my radio and heard Brian VanOchten, of the Grand Rapids Press, on Bill Simonson's "Huge" show, spewing ignorant, exasperated tripe about how the lack of a splashy signing meant it was the "same old Lions".  Odd, but I seem to remember Matt Millen making a while lot of splashy free agent signings that amounted to precisely jack and squat over eight long, painful years of failure.  No, I think Mayhew's initial approach--the exact one he said he'd take from the get-go--was the right one.

Oh, but just because he didn't make a splashy free-agent sign, didn't mean he wasn't about to make waves.  News broke that the Dockery "free agent visit" was actually part of an accidentally unconsummated trade (gee, thanks Buffalo!), resulting in Dockery returning to the team that drafted him, the Redskins--who, somehow, still had some money left?  Undeterred, Mayhew managed to work a stunner of a deal in his third attempt.  He dealt Jon Kitna to the Cowboys for--at least--CB Anthony Henry, a legit veteran starting cornerback.  Admittedly, he's coming off a down year, but he's still an enormous upgrade over Travis Fisher as a #1 CB.  Mayhew also filled some depth with WR Bryant Johnson, who would make an okay inurance policy if neither Nate Washington nor T.J. Houshmandzadeh will sign here--and an awesome #3 if one of them does sign.  He also addressed CB depth and the lack of specialized special teamers by signing ex-Titan CB Eric King.

Finally, we come to the real whiz-bang deal of the evening: hot on the heels of the reports of Matt Cassel being traded to the Chiefs, several sources reported that the Lions had dangled a "flip this house" scenario to the Broncos: We'll get you Matt Cassell if you'll give us Jay Cutler.  First of all, the fact that this even reached the dicussion stage should put to rest any visions some had of a diaper-clad Martin Mayhew, sitting in a high chair at the Big Boy table, crying for his mama because widdle ole him don't know what ta do.  Second of all, trading for Cassell--to flip him for Jay Cutler?!?  Not only would our quarterback picture have gone from one of the gloomiest to one of the brightest (Cutler the starter, Culpepper the veteran backup, Stanton the project), the proposed chain of trades would have been plain crazy, as would have been the press coverage and fan reaction.  Crazier still is this: the fact that the deal was even discussed at all infurated Cutler--to the point where he is referring to his Broncos career in the past tense to the Denver media.  The latest as the "first 48" come to a close?  That the deal may not be dead, and the Lions may still be in the hunt.

What's the verdict?  In the matter of Lions Fans versus Martin Mayhew, on one count of being a real NFL GM, me the jury finds the defendant guilty.  Mystery solved.

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