Old Mother Hubbard: The Safeties

Throughout the OMH series I’ve been waiting to get to this one; I’ve got a really cool data visualization thing I wanna do with each complete unit. So, the safeties:

The top-graded safety is Philadelphia’s Quintin Mikell, who absolutely murdered the coverage and run-stopping grades. Despite below-average blitzing, and being called for four flags, Mikell’s performance still made him the highest-graded safety, by far. In fact, only four safeties cracked positive double digits. 50 of the 85 safeties were within +5.0 and –5.0 . . . just as with OLBs, though, I wonder if this is a manifestation of the way PFF grades, or if it reveals something innate about the game of football. Safeties are very difficult to grade from TV broadcast footage—but perhaps the safeties simply don’t impact the game as often as other positions?

There’s no question who the Lions—and their fans—view as their top safety, or even top defensive back. Louis Delmas was a player who exploded onto the scene out of Western Michigan in 2009—and while we knew he gambled a bit, and missed almost as often as he hit, he made some flat-out incredible plays his rookie year. I think, though, most of us had a sense throughout this year that while he wasn’t making obvious mistakes, he wasn’t making many highlight-reel plays either.  He seemed to be toned down, the edge taken off. Was that maturation, or regression?

Delmas took 940 snaps, and his overall grade matched the NFL average to within three tenths of a point. He was a full notch below average in coverage (-3.9), but a shade above average in run defense. However, he was an impressive +4 in pass rush; the fifth-best blitzer in the NFL! These numbers, however, reveal an overall regression from 2009, when Delmas played almost exactly the same number of snaps, and was a bit above-average in every dimension.

Last August, I wrote a piece called “Something’s Rotten in Delmas,” a slightly over-the-top look at the rumors about Delmas’s injured groin. Pro Football Talk had sources telling them Delmas might be lost for the year, while every Detroit scribe’s sources were pounding the table in denial. The truth, I guessed, was somewhere in between:

The Lions and Delmas are absolutely right to be cautious with the injury. Further, if the specialist Delmas saw didn’t recommend surgery as a first course of action, then why do it unnecessarily? But this is clearly more serious than “a short-term thing.” I don’t believe that limited practice reps are going to seriously harm Delmas’s play in 2010—but if going full-speed sporadically isn’t “restful” enough for the groin to completely heal before the season starts, Delmas may not be able to go at full speed all year.

For the first nine weeks of the year, Delmas appeared to be his usual self: except for a –0.8 against Philly (entirely due to a –1.6 coverage grade, likely a single mistake) he was graded neutral or positive in every single game. Then, after a very nice +2.6 against the Jets, something happened. He went six straight weeks without a positive grade, including three awful ones against the Cowboys, Pats, and Bucs (-1.9, –3.8, and -2.9 respectively). He missed week 16 with a concussion, then turned in a great final game; earning an impressive +2.7 run defense grade against AD and the Vikes.

I can only speculate [Ed. Note: SPECULATE] that Delmas aggravated the groin injury, or suffered some other malady, in between his great performance against the Jets, and his weakly negative one against the Bills. Seriously, he turned in a +1.9 coverage grade against Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes, but –1.2 against Steve Johnson and Lee Evans? Delmas had groin surgery immediately after the season, which jibes perfectly with my theory. If Delmas is taking the time to fully recover, he should be full-speed for 2011—and back to being “Da Missile” we saw in 2009, two and a half years wiser.

Bottom Line: Louis Delmas is an athletic, hard-hitting safety who can make big plays against the run and the pass. Despite being limited by injury, he proved extremely effective on the blitz this year. If he can go full speed, he should be one of the best safeties in the NFL next season.

The good news, and bad news, is that Amari Spievey was the Lions’ top-graded safety in 2010. The third-round draft pick, who we’d hoped would step in and start at cornerback, instead struggled and switched to safety. Learning the new position slowed him down some more, but he saw spot duty in weeks 3, 5, 6, and 8. Finally, he got his first full workload against the Jets, and he played the game of his career to date: a +3.3 overall graded, 7-tackle performance. He was average or better in every category, and a very strong +2.9 against the run.

Unfortunately, Spievey hit a rough patch immediately after: three straight negative games against Buffalo, Dallas, and New England, struggling against the run and the pass. Then, he tightened it up against Chicago, Green Bay, and Miami; his grades in every dimension (and therefore overall) were flatly average. He finished off the season with a very strong +2.6, boosted by his only positive coverage grade of the year, a +1.9.

Looking at the stats, Spievey's a sure tackler. I added tackles and assists, and divided by missed tackles, and Spievey's rate of 7 tackles per miss is below the league average of 8.2. I am a ding-dong. I interpreted this stat exactly backwards. Spievey missed tackles a little more frequently than average. Thanks to commenter Laimbrane for spotting this! Interestingly, both Spievey and Delmas were thrown at a little less than the NFL average safety—but Spievey allowed a worse (better) passer rating, 82.5 to Delmas’s 89.2. Again, Spievey was just better than the NFL average of 85.7.

Seeing a pattern? The PFF stats paint a slightly rosier picture of Spievey’s coverage than the grades do—and while normally I’d trust the grades more, safety play is very difficult to grade from TV footage. Overall, it’s safe to say Spievey played just below average in coverage, and a bit above average against the run, and on the blitz. He definitely had trouble focusing, and gave up some big plays, but showed the resiliency to shake it off and minimize his mistakes.

Bottom Line: Spievey is a talented, hardworking kid with the raw ability to be a very good safety. He struggled with consistency and mental mistakes in his first season, and this offseason will be crucial in finding out if he’s a long-term starter or medium-term rotational player.

As for the rest?  Well, C.C. Brown is not likely to return. Interestingly, C.C. covered okay enough but was a disaster against the run. He graded out at –6.5 and missed 10 tackles to just 32 made. UDFA Randy Philips flashed some promise in camp, but “spit the bit” as Tom Kowalski likes to say. He didn’t do well with a heavier preseason workload, and moved up and down off the practice squad. He got only 13 reps of live action. Paul Pratt got just one rep at safety; I believe they see him as a corner. John Wendling got 59 reps, but is clearly a special teams specialist. Erik Coleman was signed as a street free agent after being released from Atlanta.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions are set at one safety position with Louis Delmas, who played admirably despite fighting through injuries. Amari Spievey showed enough promise to be considered a future starter, but will have to fight off FA signee Erik Coleman. Coleman has limitations, but will be a nice veteran insurance policy for both young safeties. Wendling and Philips will likely fight it out for the fourth safety spot. If the Lions want to make this a position of emphasis, they could acquire a clear-cut upgrade over Spievey, but my guess is they think they’re set here.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,2011 nfl draft,team needs,safeties,louis delmas,amari spievey,erik coleman

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Three Cups Deep: Preseason Week 1

Last year at this time, I started a regular Monday post I called “Three Cups Deep,” and the rationale went a little something like this:

On Mondays, it takes little bit more of the good stuff to get me going. The first desperately-needed cup is often not until nine o'clock or so, often because I’m such a complete zombie that I forget to go get coffee. I’m lucky to make it back to my desk with that first cup before I’m trekking back to the office Bunn—desperately hoping I won’t be the sucker who kills the joe, and therefore beholden to make some mo’.

The second cup I down steadily, solidly, workmanlike. By the end of that second helping, I’m starting to get the tingle; my eyes aren’t drooping quite so much. I realize I’m slouching so badly in my chair that the backrest is supporting my head instead, and move to an upright position. But the third cup . . . ahh, the third cup. The initial sip of the third cup is like Zeus’s lighting; a bolt from the heavens igniting my nervous system! I lean forward in my chair, attacking the problems of the day with emphatic keyboard strikes, pummeling my dreary to-do list into submission. It is now, at the beginning of that third cup, that I write this.

For the first time this season, there was Lions football over the weekend—so Three Cups Deep makes its triumphant return.  I spoke at length about my impressions on last night’s Fireside Chat podcast, but a good night’s sleep—or in my case, a bad night’s sleep and three cups of coffee—always provides valuable perspective.

In my guest Gameday post over at The Steelers N'At, the first sentence I wrote was, “On offense, I want to see a lot of completed passes.”  I got what I wanted on an impressive scale: Lions quarterbacks combined to complete 23 of 32 passes.  Stafford was 8-of-11; two of those were attempted TD strikes to Calvin, and one was the ill-fated swing pass to Jahvid Best.  Other than that, Stafford was nearly perfect.  The Lions spread it around a lot, too: those 23 passes went to 15 different Lions, with no receiver catching more than two balls each.

It was bizarre to watch the offense simply work.  Dropback, pass, complete.  Dropback, pass, complete.  Handoff, run forward, gain yards.  Dropback, pass, complete.  It was practically boring.  I thought to myself, “This is . . . easy.  Just, you know, complete the passes.  Why didn’t they just do this before?”  After all the wailing and lamentations, after decades of quarterback purgatory, duh, just throw and catch!  It didn’t hurt that this was the preseason, where the reaction from the Steelers crowd was a combination of silent puzzlement and total indifference.  The whole thing felt surreal.

What was even more surreal was every single end-zone replay showing a perfect pocket for Stafford to throw from.  I don’t know if the Steelers were just laying off, or what—but there was no heat on Stafford whatsoever, and he was getting rid of it quickly anyway.  Kudos to the line for keeping him clean, regardless of the pressure.

Save for the unfortunate swing pass (assigning blame is irrelevant), Jahvid Best was very impressive, and absolutely looked like an NFL every-down back.  Speed, moves, vision, yes—but strong between the tackles, and fast to the hole.  I’ve said for quite some time that the questions about his size and toughness were unfounded, but anyone who watched Best run this weekend came away knowing he’ll be just fine.

Defensively, Cliff Avril made his presence known immediately, and the starting defensive line looked every bit as impressive as advertised.  The linebackers weren’t quite as impressive; Zack Follett looked like he was a step slow to react on a lot of things, but at least looked credible out there.  Of course, the loss of Jordon Dizon is unfortunate—but at this point in his career, I can’t tell you how much better he is than Vinny Ciurciu, which says a lot about both him and Ciurciu.

In the secondary, I was impressed by the ball skills of Chris Houston and Eric King, and undrafted free agent safety Randy Phillips.  We’ll see how long that lasts once things get a little more “for real”, but the starting secondary held their own out there, which is a fantastic first sign.  I still anticipate some real struggles in the back seven over the course of the season, but I’ll take any reason for optimism I can get.

And now, for the fourth cup . . .

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,pittsburgh steelers,preseason,matthew stafford,jahvid best,cliff avril

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