The Lions Running Game: Success and Lack Thereof

First: for those of you who don’t typically check out my Bleacher Report stuff, you should probably look at today’s Matthew Stafford film breakdown. I took a good look at Stafford’s pocket presence, footwork, and mechanics against the Bears.

Okay, now. A few weeks ago I discussed the Lions success running the football on first and second down. Several of you had been asking for me to update the piece in the aftermath of the Broncos game, but Chase Stuart of Smart Football went and did a leaguewide rushing success analysis.

This is pretty much brilliant, and exactly what I’d planned to do for the Lions. Just as with Pro Football Focus, though, I am happy to stand on the shoulders of giants (or even metaphorically tall regular folks who put in the time and effort that I can’t).

First, Stuart broke it down by individual runner. He sorted the table by total number of successful runs—but since the Lions don’t run nearly as often as other teams, I knew that would skew things. I re-sorted the table by success rate, and here’s what I got:

	Name	Tm	Car	Succ	Succ%	RshYd	YPC
1	Danny Ware	NYG	28	18	0.64	91	3.3
2	Jacquizz Rodgers	ATL	32	20	0.63	137	4.3
3	DeMarco Murray	DAL	97	59	0.61	646	6.7
4	Peyton Hillis	CLE	59	35	0.59	216	3.7
5	Derrick Ward	HOU	29	17	0.59	88	3
61	Jahvid Best	DET	82	34	0.41	388	4.7
62	Maurice Morris	DET	41	17	0.41	172	4.2
63	Chris Johnson	TEN	146	59	0.4	496	3.4
64	Montario Hardesty	CLE	75	29	0.39	245	3.3
65	Deji Karim	JAX	54	20	0.37	131	2.4
66	Thomas Jones	KAN	67	24	0.36	199	3
67	Javon Ringer	TEN	44	16	0.36	147	3.3

Okay, that’s the top five, and bottom seven, rushers by success rate. The first thing you’ll notice is that the Lions’ primary runners to date have identical success rates, despite big disparities in carries, yards, and yards-per-carry. In the Smart Football piece, Stuart singled out Jahvid Best as an example of a runner with deceptively high yards-per-carry: he has the numbers of a back who’s been highly successful when he hasn’t been.

However, he correctly notes that the Lions’ run blocking is atrocious. That Maurice Morris—a different back with different skill sets—has the exact same success rate indicates that the problem isn’t the Lions running backs, it’s the Lions’ running game.

You see the same issue with Tennessee: Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer are almost identically terrible, despite being different runners with different tools. What proves the rule, though, is Cleveland’s backs: Peyton Hills is the 4th-most-successful back, getting the job done 63% of the time with just 3.7 YpC—and his running mate Montario Hardesty is only successful 39% of the time, with 3.3 YpC.

Stuart helpfully included the table of team rushing success, and this time he broke it down by rate as well. Atop the list were New Orleans, Buffalo, and New England, with success rates in the mid-50s. At the bottom? Detroit and Tennessee, with success rates of 40.7% and 39.6%, respectively.

So the Lions aren’t moving the chains on the ground. Worse yet, without Best there’s no threat of the home run, either. Opposing defenses can key on the pass—and that’s putting an awful lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford, the receivers, and the pass protection. They’re talented enough to overcome that pressure, but they have to bring their A game against every non-pushover foe.

I'm thrilled that Stuart included the defensive rushing success rate, as well, because it's an entirely different story: the Lions have the 4th-most successful rushing defense in the NFL. When considering down and distance, the Lions are allowing only 42.2% of carries to succeed. Seattle, San Francisco, and Atlanta are ahead of them with 39.5%, 41.4%, and 41.5% respectively.

The Lions have allowed 944 yards, far more than either of those three teams (771, 516, 676) at a far higher per-carry rate, 4.7 YpC (3.5, 3.3, 3.8). Considering that Stuart eliminated all third- and fourth-and-long carries (so tailbacks wouldn’t be punished for calling the Incredibly Surprising Draw on 3rd-and-forever), this is really impressive stuff. Though the Lions run defense is giving up the occasional long gainer, they’re otherwise completely shutting opponents down—mostly without help from the defensive line.

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Mikel Leshoure Out For Year; Lions Doomed Forever

Well, it was bound to happen. From Mikel Leshoure’s Meet the Cubs scouting report:

LeShoure reminds me of another Lions running back, one who stood a very similar 6’-1”, 224: James Stewart. Stewart, like LeShoure, made a lot of hay between the tackles—and if Stewart lacked a certain je ne sais quoi in comparison, he probably hit a little bit harder. Both had excellent acceleration into “good” straight-line speed, both played faster than their reputation or clock times would suggest. Stewart, though, struggled mightily to stay healthy . . . let’s hope LeShoure doesn’t have that problem.

This morning Mikel Leshoure ruptured his Achilles tendon, ending his 2011 Lions campaign, maybe his career, definitely the Lions’ playoff chances for the next five years, and also every reason you had to ever be happy again. Or, you know, not.

The culture of hype surrounding the NFL draft, and NFL draft picks, leads us to believe that every rookie drafted in the first few rounds should make an immediate impact on the bottom line. That every team should be counting on its first few picks to step in and excel. That each and every talented rookie will blaze the trail to your teams’ glorious new era of dominance and winning. Only a handful of rookies achieve anything like this kind of instant success in any given year, yet we all go on believing it will happen with next season’s first hundred picks.

Mikel Leshoure was drafted to fill a need; the Lions will miss him. Here’s another paragraph from that scouting report:

Mikel LeShoure looks to be an excellent complement to Jahvid Best, much the way Stewart combined with Fred Taylor in Jacksonville. This isn’t a “thunder and lightning” situation, like Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne, or Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott. Some folks had LeShoure rated as their #1 workhorse back due to Ingram’s injury concerns; he and Best will doubtlessly find a mutually beneficial workload ratio. Together, they’ll spell each other, make each other more effective, and back each other up—the Lions’ offense shouldn’t ever be without a tailback that can keep defenses honest.

So, you want to know, who will the Lions add to fill that role? Nobody. Nobody else will fill that role. Anyone who can be 1b to Jahvid Best’s 1a is on another roster. There are “goal line backs” and “big backs” and used-up “veteran backs” with names you’ve heard of, but anyone who’s available right now likely won’t be as good as Maurice Morris, who grades out as a sightly-below-average heavy-rotation running back. The Lions had a need for Mikel Leshoure—that doesn’t mean they have a need for Clinton Portis.

After Best, Leshoure, and Morris, the Lions have tailback Aaron Brown, and fullbacks Jerome Felton, Matt Clapp, on the roster, as well as H-back Preston Dial. Those four guys were likely fighting for one, or possibly two spots—Leshoure going on IR means two, or possibly three, of those guys will be kept. This coaching staff seems to love Felton as a runner (when he isn’t fumbling), so he may be the “goal line back” going forward.

Part of building depth is understanding that you may have to use that depth. Though the lockout injury bug has struck the Lions’ “luxury pick” rookies hard, the starting 22 looks essentially the same: the pressure is on Ndamukong Suh, Jahvid Best, and Nate Burleson to succeed, just as it was last season—just because their rookie backups didn’t hit the ground running doesn’t mean the teams’ fortunes don’t still rest on their shoulders.

The Lions' season is not lost. What the Lions have lost is some breathing room, some, margin for error, and the lottery ticket stub that Young, Leshoure or Fairley each represent. Last year, they won the Mega Millions with Suh; don’t think that just because the Powerball didn’t  bounce their way in 2011 that these kids won’t become productive Lions soon. And, just because Mikel will be “pressing the pause button,” as Jahvid Best said, don’t think that you need to hit “Eject” on your hopes. The Lions’ short-tem picture has not dimmed; they will still win more games than they lose.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,mikel leshoure,jahvid best

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Running Backs

Since Pro Football Focus doesn’t normalize their quarterback data—and, of course, we knew the Lions’ quarterback picture for 2011—this will be the last position group I apply the Old Mother Hubbard treatment to. Without further ado, the chart:

The bright red line is Jamaal Charles, who tied with Adrian Peterson for the best “Run” grade (+23.0)—but Charles’s +3.4 blocking grade is 8th-best in the NFL, while All Day’s –6.8 blocking grade is tied for last place with Chris Johnson, so Charles is “in charge” of the running backs. The dark brick red line is Tim Hightower, whose –7.3 receiving grade was, by far, the worst handed out to any NFL back last year; it went unredeemed by his +0.6 run grade (in a year where the NFL average run grade was +2.5). The AVERAGE, the thick black line, was soundly positive (+3.14), meaning running back play as a whole seems to be better than it was in 2008 (PFF’s baseline season). Interesting.

Per my emerging standard, I’ve given the highest-graded Lions tailback, Maurice Morris, a nice Lions-y blue. His –0.9 overall grade is well below NFL starter average; he ranked 37th of 58 qualifying tailbacks. His ability to catch the ball is probably underrated; MoMo’s receiving grade was a healthy +1.8, 17th-best. His running was graded out at +0.7, below the league average of +2.5, and ranked just below the median (34th of 58).

Statistically, PFF credited Morris with 336 yards on 90 attempts, an average of 3.7 YpC. That’s almost half a yard less than the NFL average of 4.2; he ranked 45th-best out of 58. I was hoping we’d find out Morris was better-than average when it came to yards after contact, but that’s not the case either. He averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry; by itself that’s a well-below-average number. But, when you look at what percentage of his yards came after contact (62.2%) versus the NFL average (63.2%), he’s getting a typical portion of his gained yards after contact—he’s just not gaining that many yards.

I’ve spoken very highly of Maurice Morris before—indeed, he’s the best, most consistent back the Lions have had throughout the Mayhew Era. Keep in mind, all this doom-and-gloom in the above paragraphs is relative to players with at least 25% of their teams’ snaps. MoMo is a creditable, slightly-below-average starter or above-average rotational/backup NFL tailback. However, he’s not a difference-maker, and it’s not good news that he ended the season as the Lions’ best-graded RB.

BOTTOM LINE: Maurice Morris is a creditable all-around NFL tailback, but he has neither the down-to-down productivity, nor the home-run ability, that the Lions need from their long-term starter. If he sticks around he’ll be a great insurance policy for the Lions’ two young runners. If not, the Lions may look for a similar veteran retread.

My policy in these Old Mother Hubbards is to only review players who I believe can be considered an asset going forward—that is, if they clearly don’t have a place on next year’s roster, there’s no point in assessing them as an . . . asset. Aaron Brown straddles this line. With an overall grade of –3.0 on just 80 snaps, he was technically the second-best-graded 2010 Lions running back not already released. However, his tantalizing speed still can’t be harnessed effectively, because he still makes so many mental mistakes.

BOTTOM LINE: I think the former sixth-rounder is on his last legs here in Detroit. I will be surprised if he makes the roster.

It kills me that Jahvid Best, the Lions’ second 2010 first-round draft pick, was the Lions’ lowest-graded tailback. It kills me even harder that his –6.0 overall grade was third-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Donald Brown and Tim Hightower. His –4.0 running grade was tied for second-worst with Correll Buckhalter; only Thomas Jones’ appalling –9.7 bails Best out from being tied for worst.

I think we’re all well aware of Jahvid’s painful double turf toe injuries; I think we’re also well aware of the Lions’ problems with run blocking. Jahvid did a lot of running into a behind-the-line-of-scrimmage pile; he didn’t get much chance to hit holes hard, like we saw him do in preseason, or rip off long chunks of yardage, like we saw him do in the first few games of the season. He finished with 3.3 yards per carry, 54.5% of which came after contact (1.8).

Towards the end of the season, Jahvid's productivity and grades perked back up. I got a chance to speak with Jahvid about it in between Week 14 and 15, and he told me it was as much, if not more, about overcoming the rookie wall, and being mentally ready to handle the grind of the NFL, as it was physical limitations. Even unable to rest his turf toes, he still turned in positive overall grades in three of the last five games, including a nice 1.2 against Miami (in just 22 snaps). He also failed to be penalized at all—and only fumbled once—with the NFL’s 24th-heaviest workload (573 snaps, NFL avg. 498).

BOTTOM LINE: Jahvid Best showed us plenty of his Jim-Schwartz-up-late-at-night-alone-watching-YouTube-highlight-reels ability in the preseason, in the opening two games, and a little in the last five games. He was clearly hampered by his turf toes, however, and had almost no daylight to work with throughout the middle of the season. Between him getting healthy and Stephen Peterman getting healthy, I expect Jahvid to return to his explosive form. Still, the two questions surrounding Jahvid Best's rookie campaign were, 1) can he stay healthy? and 2) can he handle being an NFL feature back? Unfortunately, Best’s first year points more toward the answers being “No,” and “No,” than “Yes,” and “Yes.”

SHOPPING LIST: Pre-draft, I would have suggested that the Lions would be okay with Best as the returning #1—with the caveat that the Lions would either have to be very comfortable with Maurice Morris seeing significant carries, or acquire a power back to help carry some of the between-the-tackles load. Now that the Lions have drafted Mikel Leshoure, I see Best as the 1a to Leshoure’s 1b—with health, workload, and opponent determining the week-to-week load. Morris would be a fine insurance policy, and has one year left on his contract. If he’s willing to be the third wheel, the Lions will be in very good shape at this position for 2011—and beyond.

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Meet the Cubs: Mikel LeShoure

2.25 (57): Mikel LeShoure
          Running Back, Illinois

On the day he declared for the NFL Draft, Mikel LeShoure’s words matched those of thousands of other kids who’ve gone through the process. It’s practically boilerplate:

"I believe I have accomplished everything I can at the college level and want to go after my dream: playing in the NFL.”

For millions, playing in the NFL is a dream they’ll never have the opportunity to pursue, because they weren’t born with the talent. Mikel LeShoure was born with talent, but little else—Mikel LeShoure was born in prison.

Mikel, and his mother Jacqueline “Jazz” Frasier-Jones, faced an almost impossible climb up life’s mountain. Post-release, Jazz battled drug and alcohol addictions (and prior drug convictions), and worked multiple jobs to provide for Mikel. Meanwhile, Mikel spent the earliest years of his life with his aunt and stepmother; his father was in sporadic contact, fighting drug demons and prison sentences of his own. All three persevered, though: his mother has stayed clean and sober for 15 years, father got a good job, got back in contact, and was present at Mikel’s draft announcement, and Mikel racked up 4,652 yards and 52 rushing touchdowns at Champaign Centennial High School.

That’s Champaign, as in Champaign, Illinois—and from the sound of it, Illinois head coach Ron Zook didn’t let LeShoure, a three-star RB recruit per both Scout.com and Rivals.com leave his backyard. Listed at 6’-0”, 220 pounds, LeShoure had offers from Iowa and Wisconsin, as well as Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, and Boston College. He was Rivals’ 28th-ranked running back, nationally, and Scout’s 52nd.

Mikel saw some platoon time right away his freshman year, and even started a game. However, he got into a fight with teammate Jeff Cumberland, now a TE with the Jets, and Cumberland broke LeShoure’s jaw. LeShoure spent six weeks on a liquid-only diet, and he realized he could stand to drop his freshman fifteen. In the layoff between his freshman and sophomore year, Mikel went from 237 back down to a very lean (4.8% body fat) 228. In car circles, there’s a classic quote from Lotus founder Colin Chapman: “If you want to add speed, add lightness,” and that’s exactly what LeShoure did.

Besides his diet, Mikel knew that he had to make lifestyle and attitude changes, too, if he was to be the lead dog in the Illini’s four-tailback pack:

"I'm bigger, stronger, faster — all of that," LeShoure said. "The main things were my diet and not going out and partying, handling it and being smart. I stayed in more, just hanging out with the family. It was pretty easy because the No. 1 thing I thought about was football season and what would make me better."

With his maturing mind, maturing frame, and returned explosion, LeShoure notched multiple hundred-yard games his sophomore year, culminating in a 184-yard explosion against Fresno State that got him Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors. He used his size, speed, and improved conditioning to wear down defenses; his second-half YpC was 7.6, and all five of his rushing TDs came after halftime. He was named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten.

In his junior year, Mikel LeShoure blew everything up. I’ll just quote the official bio:

AWARDS & HONORS
• College Football Performance Awards Running Back of the Year (2010)
• Second-team All-American by the Associated Press (2010)
• Third-team All-American by Rivals.com and Phil Steele (2010)
• Honorable mention All-American by SI.com and Pro Football Weekly (2010)
• First-team All-Big Ten by both coaches and media (2010)
• 2010 Texas Bowl MVP
• 2010 Team MVP and Most Outstanding Offensive Back

RECORDS
• Illinois season rushing yards (1,697)
• Illinois season points scored (122)
• Illinois season total touchdowns (20) and rushing touchdowns (17 - tied with Rashard Mendenhall)
• Illinois season 100-yard rushing games (9) and consecutive 100-yard rushing games (5)
• Illinois single-game rushing yards - 330 vs. Northwestern at Wrigley Field, 11/20/10
• Finished sixth on the UI career rushing list (2,557) and second in school history in all-purpose yards (1,893)

Got all that? Mikel LeShoure was one of the best running backs in the nation in 2010, with some truly astounding numbers and performances. Of course, Michigan fans remember LeShoure’s five-touchdown game against them, but Mikel’s real masterwork was the Northwestern game at Wrigley Field, where he carried the ball a whopping thirteen times at a staggering 10.0 YpC clip, for a crushing 330 yards and two touchdowns. He was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, Walter Camp Foundation National Player of the Week, Rivals.com National Player of the Week and College Football Performance National Performer of the Week for that magnum opus.

Now, let’s see what the experts are saying.

Sideline Scouting:

Positives: Great size, very strong build... Plays faster on tape than timed speed... Does a great job holding the football close to his body... Very quick feet, reaches his top speed almost immediately which makes him a big play threat... Gets his first 15-20 yards in a hurry, tough to contain... Runs through tackles, does a great job getting through trash and running between the tackles... Keeps his legs moving at all times, very hard to slow down... Runs with low pad level, delivers hits rather than absorb them... Great vision, waits for his blockers... Soft hands, is growing to be a capable receiver out of the backfield... Put up big numbers against tough Big 10 defenses, had only one game this year with less than 75 rushing yards... One of the few backs in this class that has the potential to be a true workhorse.

Negatives: Really has only had one great season thus far... Often tries to break the big play rather than settle for a short gain, is prone to some negative yardage plays... Broke his jaw in 2008 after an altercation with a teammate at Illinois... Conditioning was a concern in the past... Takes most of his handoffs out of the shotgun in Illinois' spread option offense... Ran poorly at combine.

CBSSports.com:

Inside running: Powerful back, gets behind his pads when running inside. Runs with lean, and has a small strike zone for which opponents to get a square hit. Good vision to cut away from traffic, very smooth in his cuts. Keeps legs moving after initial contact. Can jump over piles near the line. If the line provides a big hole, he has an elite burst to hit second level at full speed. Excellent ball security, keeps it high and tight. Must avoid stopping to run outside when defenders penetrate, instead taking the couple of yards behind his line. Usually uses his fullback when in the I-formation, but must trust him in short yardage situations. Sells fake handoffs.

Outside running: Thick upper- and lower-body build but he has the vision and quick feet to bounce outside as if he were a smaller back. Exceptional burst makes him capable of turning the corner to break off chunks of yardage. Has patience and vision to take a pitch and find a cutback lane and explode through it. Keeps his pad level low outside, which combined with a low center of gravity and strong legs, make him tough to tackle. Not afraid to push a pile or carry a defender a few yards after initial contact. Does not go out of bounds right away, willing to lower a shoulder to get a couple of extra yards.

Compares to: Ryan Mathews, Chargers -- Mathews had a stellar junior season but didn't stand out in San Diego, battling ankle problems until late in the season. Leshoure has the same combination of open-field burst and power, with a chance to be an impact rookie.

I don't know if I'm taking crazy pills or just not a subscriber or what, but SI.com apparently only lists "negatives" this year. They graded him at 2.82, "FIRST-YEAR CONTRIBUTOR," though:

Negatives: Loses a lot of momentum when he must quickly change direction. Not a creative ball carrier. Does not consistently run with an aggressive style. Effective when he gives effort blocking yet not consistent in that area. Cannot run to daylight in the open field. Has an upright running style that leads to a lot of heavy hits.

Pro Football Weekly:

Positives: Looks every bit the part with a chiseled, NFL physique with little body fat. Sturdy runner equipped to make a living between the tackles. Quick-footed and shifty and shows some shimmy in the hole. Can get to and through the second level. Barrels through contact. Can handle a heavy workload and responds to a lather. Soft hands. Physical cut blocker. Outstanding production — paced Big Ten running backs his final two seasons with 6.4 yards per rush. Has a 38-inch vertical jump.

Negatives: Inconsistent down-to-down compete level. Does not attack holes, and too much of his production is blocked for him — was barely touched on long gains in career-best 330-yard performance against Northwestern. Is tight in the hips. Lacks extra gear to break away and play speed is not exceptional. Average vision and run instincts — the game does not come natural to him. Does not run angry and is not as powerful or as punishing as he could be.

Summary: A downhill runner who looks every bit the part, Leshoure carried the offense and flashes starter-caliber ability, though he could require time to acclimate to a complementary big-back role and handle the physicality of the NFL game. Sheer size and bellcow potential will appeal most to physical, ground-oriented attacks such as that of the Dolphins, Steelers, Jets, Titans or Lions.

But what do “the experts” really know? We have indisputable, infallible, visual evidence—the one and only prognosticator of future NFL success: YOUTUBE HIGHLIGHT REELS!!

FIrst, the highlights of that incredible day against Northwestern:

Next, we have some Illinois offense-only "every snap" videos; first the aforementioned Michigan game, and then the 2010 Texas Bowl vs. Baylor (the pic above is LeShoure accepting the Texas Bowl MVP trophy). Lots of non-LeShoure snaps, of course, but you’re getting the lumps along with the good stuff, here, too:

Finally, a true and proper YouTube highlight reel, complete with hype music:

LeShoure reminds me of another Lions running back, one who stood a very similar 6’-1”, 224: James Stewart. Stewart, like LeShoure, made a lot of hay between the tackles—and if Stewart lacked a certain je ne sais quoi in comparison, he probably hit a little bit harder. Both had excellent acceleration into “good” straight-line speed, both played faster than their reputation or clock times would suggest. Stewart, though, struggled mightily to stay healthy . . . let’s hope LeShoure doesn’t have that problem.

LeShoure has wonderful stop/start for a man his size, and you see it deployed to his advantage many times up above. He also has nicely fluid legs that let him redirect and cut while keeping his shoulders square and his upper body quiet. He appears to have nice hands, but for some reason wasn’t used much in the passing game—and I don’t think he’ll be thrown to much here, either.

His vision seems to be okay, but not as prescient as Best’s; he doesn’t have that Sandersesque “I’m cutting this way and setting my shoulders that way, thereby juking the guy in front of me and freezing the guy behind him” way of seeing the field. Sometimes he seems to go for the home run when he just needs to get four, and sometimes, he plows ahead when there was another lane open. Remember, he only started one full season; he has a lot of learning left to do. Further, unlike Kevin Smith, Mikel Leshoure has a lot of tread left on his tires—extremely important for a mostly-between-the-tackles back.

In short, Mikel LeShoure looks to be an excellent complement to Jahvid Best, much the way Stewart combined with Fred Taylor in Jacksonville. This isn’t a “thunder and lightning” situation, like Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne, or Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott. Some folks had LeShoure rated as their #1 workhorse back due to Ingram’s injury concerns; he and Best will doubtlessly find a mutually beneficial workload ratio. Together, they’ll spell each other, make each other more effective, and back each other up—the Lions’ offense shouldn’t ever be without a tailback that can keep defenses honest.

Researching this piece has me deep in thought about the power of the NFL, the power of people’s dreams, and the incredible diversity of paths these young men take to achieve glory. The truth is, whether you were born in a correctional facility, or grew up down the street from Bobby Layne’s house in an exclusive suburb, it takes incredible dedication, hard work, perseverance—and still, even, a little luck—to make it to the NFL. For most of these rookies, the hard part is just beginning . . . but for Mikel Leshoure, I bet, even two-a-days will still feel like a dream.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,mikel leshoure,2011 nfl draft,running backs,jahvid best,scouting reports

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Do the Lions Need To Cut Kevin Smith?

Being a sports fan in 2010 is much, much different than it was in 2000, and much, much, much different than in 1990.  Our access to surging torrents of information, in real time, all the time, everywhere, has shrunken our attention spans and shrunken our perspectives.  Not too long ago, our sports information was found only in agate type on page D7, and our sports opinions were informed only by beat writers, columnists, and Jack the Sales Guy who you always see at the coffee pot on Mondays.  If you wanted to know which camp bodies the Lions had released—and you wouldn’t know who they were to begin with—you’d have to wait a day, and bring your magnifying glass.

It’s no wonder, then, that this time of year always strikes me as odd; great raging debates are had over who deserves the last few spots on the roster—when the last eight guys on the roster, by rule, can’t even dress for games.  Moreover, if there’s anything we should know about these Lions, it’s that being on the final 53 doesn’t mean you’re safe for any length of time.  Literally, hundreds of players have worn Honolulu Blue since Martin Mayhew took over as GM; Guy #53 might be out on his tail the instant some other team cuts a slightly more interesting player.

Imagine my surprise when, in the wake of his lackluster performance against Cleveland, people started calling for Kevin Smith’s job.  He’s done, they say.  He’s hurt, they say.  DeDe Dorsey looks really good, they say.  What good is he?  Why waste a roster spot on Kevin Smith?  I’m reminded of a famous quote from Charles Babbage, when asked if his “difference engine” would produce a correct answer when given incorrect inputs:

"I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question."

Yes, it’s true, Kevin Smith does not look like his typical self—and yes, it’s true that his “typical self” was just a step short of being a complete feature back.  Kevin Smith might be four-to-eight weeks away from being the back that ran 238 times for 976 yards—on the worst team of all time, just two years ago—but a sense of perspective on what that means, please.  Smith ran for more yards in the first five games of his rookie year than DeDe Dorsey has in his first four years in the NFL.

It’s true that the Lions won’t carry five tailbacks and Jerome Felton; as I believe Felton’s a lock at least one, and probably two, tailbacks must go.  Dorsey is an easy cut.  Yes, he’s looked good in preseason, but then so did Tristan Davis; you can sign a DeDe Dorsey during the season if you need to.  For that matter, they may be able to re-sign Dorsey himself!  Aaron Brown is a great special-teamer, and shows true explosion out of the backfield; he’s more than worth keeping around to see what he becomes.  However, he’s far too unreliable in protection to serve as a true #2 tailback.  The question then, is do the Lions cut Smith, cut Morris, or carry four?

I’ve championed Maurice Morris for quite a while; I even argued that his running last year obviated the need to “waste” a high draft pick on a co-starter for Kevin Smith.  However, Morris isn’t the blocker Smith is, and doesn’t have the vision Smith does.  Morris runs hard, and is an underrated athlete—but when Smith’s at his best, he’s a complete tailback;  he runs like a slower, stronger Jahvid Best.

As I said during my guest spot on “The Knee Jerks” internet radio show, Jahvid Best is probably the best reason to keep Smith around, because they run in a similar fashion.  There’s no need to custom-tailor the offense around each back, or change up the playcalling.  When both are healthy, they can simply spell each other, complement each other, sub in and out without skipping a beat.  Best will always be more explosive and more dangerous, Smith will always be stronger, and likely the better blocker—but over the next few years, I see them as an excellent complement to each other.

The question, then, is whether or not the Lions want their #2 tailback to simply be a Guy In Case Of Emergency.  If all they need is a guy they can run out there when Best is too tired to continue, or (God forbid) hurt, Morris will do just fine.  If they intend to have Best be 1A to someone else’s 1B, a cohabitation that would keep Best fresh and explosive for 15+ carries while also keeping a rookie off the field when Stafford needs protection most, then Smith should be that back.

Ultimately, though, every choice is weighed against another.  With Jack Williams’ PUP listing, and Amari Spievey’s switch to safety, there are eight cornerbacks and six safeties on the roster.  If Kevin Smith is kept, one member of the pile of bodies that is the defensive secondary might be yanked out from underneath the others.  Seriously, ask yourself: who will provide the most value to this team?  Kevin Smith, or Ko Simpson?  Kevin Smith, or Dante Wesley?  I know what my thinking is in that situation, but I can’t be so sure of The Grandmaster’s—or even Smith’s.

The Free Press’ Carlos Monarrez quotes Jim Schwartz like so:

"Kevin's a very, very smart football player, and he's going to do the right thing," Schwartz said. "He's got a lot of trust from those things. He just needs -- and it's not so much earning our trust -- he just needs to get his own trust with his knee and everything else.”

“I've known a lot of people to come back from knee injuries and they need to get to the point where it's not even on their agenda anymore; they don't think about it when they're out there. That's a long process. That's not an overnight thing. So he's still working that way."

It sounds like the problem at this point isn’t whether or not his knee is healthy, but whether or not he trusts it yet.  That’s good: once Smith regains that confidence and stops thinking about the knee, he’ll be the Kevin Smith that should be that 1B tailback.  That’s also bad; he might never regain that confidence—and for a tailback whose value is in running hard and blocking strong, playing hesitantly means not playing at all.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,kevin smith,jahvid best,dede dorsey,jim schwartz

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Sifting through embers: offense vs. Atlanta

I'm aware that this is more than a little bit late. I've had the charting done for quite a while, but I'm playing with both the formatting and style in an attempt to wrest control of the fonts, sizes, etc. back from my template's CSS. However, I realized that I needed to get this bad boy out there before it loses all relevance--so let's get right to the good stuff:

FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L42	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap R	+7
Both WR are split left, TE right.  Loper pulls right; Peterman and Cherilus block left.  Raiola is responsible for filling the gap left by Loper, and while he's initially beaten, he pushes the DT just wide at the last second.  Smith seems to briefly look outside, but instead takes the intended path up the middle for a nice gain.  Loper, oddly, never ends up blocking anyone despite rambling well downfield.
L49	2-3	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap L	+4
Almost the same play, to the weak- instead of strong- side this time.  Peterman pulls left, Raiola seals off the tackle on the backside, Smith hits the hole hard.  Falcons do a better job of tackling at the second level--also no TE on this side.
F48	1-10	Offset I 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Short R (Smith)	+11
The offensive line gets great protection here.  Colbert is held downfield by Falcons CB Brent Grimes (called, declined), and Culpepper swings it out to Smith, who's wide open in the flat.  It hits him in stride, and he takes off for 11.
F37	1-10	Offset I 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap R?	+1
Felton motions to offset at the last second.  Loper again pulls right, Cherilus and Peterman block left. DE Babineaux overwhelms the TE (Heller?), pushing Smith inside. He dives for, and gets, Smith's ankles.
F36	2-9	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	inc (Williams), penalty	+7
The Falcons send the Sam and Mike between Peterman and Cherilus.  OL does a good job, and and Smith picks up one blitzer, but Felton helps Peterman on the DT instead of blocking the other.  Culpepper deftly sidesteps him, then lauches a gorgeous deep ball out the back of the end zone.  Williams had a step on his man.  Harry Douglas is called for holding, +5 yards and a first down.
F30	1-10	Single 2-TE	Base 4-3	Run	Counter R	+1
This looks like a simple dive between Loper and Backus--but both TEs are lined up to the right.  After a step left, Smith counters to run behind the TEs. OLB Mike Peterson ushers Gronkowski past him like a matador, then stuffs Avieon Cason.  Why Caseon?  WHY?
F29	2-9	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	+3
Falcons again blitz two.  Good initial pickup.  Culpepper looks right, scans left, seems to look deep left, then MLB Curtis Lofton takes Felton to the ground right next to him.  No threat since Lofton fell down, too, but he clearly didn't see much.  Looking very quick, he tucks an runs for the sideline.
F27	3-7	Single 3-WR? (gun)	Base 4-3	Pass	Screen R (Smith)	+16
Guessing this is a 3-WR look, but can only find 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB on this 720p feed.  Even if they only had ten out there, the play works.  The Falcons pick a bad time to send everyone; Smith slips behind the rush and 'Pepper flips it to him.  Smith turns upfield with an escort (Raiola), whose inability to destroy the safety is the only thing that prevents a TD.  Smith out.
F11	1-10	Single 3-WR	Base Nickel	Run	Dive Left	+1
Simple dive, looks to be intended to go left.  John Abraham vs. Will Heller's a mismatch; Abraham pushes Heller back into Cason's path.  Cason bounces off Heller, and by the time he recovers, Babineaux gets off of Gosder and brings Cason down.  A waste of a GREAT push up front by the guards; lots of daylight.
F10	2-9	Single 3-WR	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble (play action)	+7
There's a play action; the OL does an iffy job of selling it.  Loper pulls right while Cherilus and Peterman block down, but Backus is clearly ready to pass block--not very well, as Abraham pushes him back pretty far.  Loper holds Babineaux off, but Daunte tucks and runs--before any of the routes develop.  Cpep nearly scores.
F2	3-2	Offset I-Form 3 TE	Goal line	Pass	Sack (play action)	-7
Cripes.  The Lions call a play action, but DT Thomas Johnson happens to crash a gap in between Raiola and Loper, who are downblocking left to sell the run, when Culpepper is about to fake and roll right.  That works on the 20 but not on the 2; you have to know the DTs are going to bullrush here. Johnson blasts through the line and manages to snag Culpepper's ankles.  Loss of seven.
F10	4-9	Field Goal			Field Goal
First drive: 12 plays, 48 yards, Field Goal, Lions 3-0.  Great field position, great drive, miserable to get just three here.  I blame Linehan's playcall as much as any of the players for their execution.
L30	1-10	Single 3-WR	Base Nickel	Run	Trap? R	+4
Lions do a good job of showing pass against the nickel.  Peterman pulls right while the TE and Cherilus block left.  DE Chauncey Davis gets good penetration, forcing Cason to take a step outside and then cut back in.  Peterman drills his man downfield, and Cason picks up an easy four-ish yards.
Hey, did you know Michael Turner is good, and the Falcons beat the Lions last year?  Just checking, because NFLN wants to make sure you didn't forget.
L34	2-6	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Dive R	+4
I can't tell which gap this was intended for, because DE Chauncey Davis splits Peterman and Cherilus and disrupts the run.  DT Peria Jerry is blown several yards back by Raiola, but Raiola releases and goes to the next level; Jerry is free to trip Cason up.  I think the move to avoid Davis disrupted the timing here.
L38	3-2	Offset I 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Short M (Felton)	+6
Colbert motions inside, next to Heller. At the snap, they cross, and Heller goes deep while Colbert runs a drag across the middle.  Felton runs a quick curl, and Cason flares out to the flat.  Good protection.  Culpepper hits Felton for the first down; end of first quarter.
L45	1-10	?	?	Run	?	+4
TV feed came back after a Cason 4-yard run had just finished.  Thanks.
L49	2-6	Single 2 TE	Base 4-3	Pass	Short R (PA, Colbert)	inc.
Falcons show blitz with Sam and Mike, then blitz Mike and Will.  Interior linemen to a great job of picking it up, partly thanks to max protect on outside.  After half-hearted play action, Culpepper throws to Colbert, high and over wrong shoulder.  Easily defended by Grimes.
L49	3-6	2 RB 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble	+1
Falcons do a delayed blitz with both 'backers.  Abraham beats Backus inside; while Backus reengages and pushes him wide, Culpepper tucks and runs.  Iffy blocking upfield keeps him from converting.  IMO he had the time and target pull the trigger if he was willing to get hit; starting to think he's got happy feet.
Second drive: 6 plays, 21 yards, Punt.  Falcons blitzing more; protection inconsistent.  Culpepper looks fast, but is either dumping off or scrambing on every play.  Could be chalked up to the scout-team WR corps not getting open.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L34	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap R	-1
Falcons twos in on D.  Loper pulls right, fullback goes right, Cason runs up the middle, into the teeth of a stunt.  The DE coming inside stuffs him, then wraps and drags him down.
L33	2-11	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Short M (T. Smith)	+3
No blitz, great protection; Culpepper has all day.  He zips through all his reads and hits Terelle Smith for 3 yards.  Cute.  Oh, generous spot, make it four.
L21	3-23	2 RB 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Short M (Somebody)	+4
TONY GONZALEZ IS SO INTERESTING!  Lions were apparently flagged at some point for something.  It's now third and 23; Culpepper dumps it off to the somebody for a few.  Thanks, Duante.
Third drive: 3 plays, -13 yards.  Ankle-biting is not going to get us anywhere against the Falcons.  Sooner or later, the Lions will have to score.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L31	1-10	Single 2 TE	Base 4-3	Pass	Deep L (Colbert)	inc.
Stafford in at QB.  Max protect keeps Stafford clean.  He has Keary Colbert open at midfield . . . Off Colbert's hands.  Incomplete.
L31	2-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	timeout
Stafford doesn't like what he sees; calls time at the line.  Let's try this again.
L31	2-10	Single 4 WR (gun)	Base Dime (?)	Pass	Middle L (Williams)
It's tough to tell alignments for sure thanks to the inset interview with Stafford, but he hits Derrick Williams on a quick in route; Williams turns it up for the first.
L41	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Off-tackle (Cason)	+1
Raiola blows his guy, DT Trey Lewis, several yards back, but then Lewis releases and runs over to make the play.  Loper got stood up a bit, forcing Cason to adjust; that may have slowed him just enough for Lewis.
L42	2-9	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Screen-ish R (Cason)	+5
What looks like a basic dropback ends up looking like a screen, as the Falcons blitz two, and Stafford lofts one over the rush to Cason.  Cason just needs to beat the CB for a big gain; the corner wraps through Cason's stiff arm & brings him down.
L47	3-4	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Short M (Colbert)	inc.
TE goes out, RB stays in to block.  No blitz.  Backus is beaten to the outside, but Stafford already found Colbert across the middle.  Stafford steps up and fires--it hits Colbert in the hands and he stone cold dirty drops it.  CRUCIAL.  Ugh.
Fourth drive: 6 plays, 22 yards, Punt.  Stafford flashing both a gun and some touch on his first drive; Colbert had two critical and infuriating drops.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L15	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Naked Bootleg (Heller)	+3
Very well-executed naked bootleg.  The line convincingly run-blocks left, Cason and Stafford sell the play-action, and then Stafford rolls right and hits Heller cleanly for a few.  Heller's hit by 2 Falcons simultaneously, but well done, Lions.
L18	2-8	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Deep R (Colbert)	+29
THERE we go.  This reminds me of some of the Georgia highlights.  From the gun, perfect protection, Stafford looks deep left and then resets deep right, hits Colbert in stride in between the corner and closing safety.  Colbert hangs on.
L47	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Trap R (Cason)	+8
Raiola pulls between Peterman and Cherilus and stuffs the run-blitzing Coy Wire.  Peterman seals the DT well, giving Cason a great seam.  Cason bursts ahead for 8.
F45	2-2	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Deep R (Colbert)	inc.
Similar to two downs ago, Stafford looks great here.  The OL again gives him a perfect pocket, and again he has Colbert wide open downfield.  Stafford ZIPS it, but it's slightly high and behind.  Stil, it's definitely catchable; Colbert makes a nice adjustment, but it hits him square in the hands and bounces off.  ROAR.  Falcons broadcast replays Backus neutralizing DE Kroy Biermann for some reason.
F45	3-2	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Pass	Deep R (Colbert)	inc.
Falcons flash blitz; Stafford audibles at the line. Not sure what he changes, but both DTs get double-teamed; Cason is left to block the DE solo.  Cason cuts him, and slows him down enough for Stafford to let it fly again.  Colbert might be able to 'make a play' to bring it down, but CB Chris Owens has great position.
Fifth drive: 5 plays, 30 yards.  Stafford looking very sharp with his reads and execution.  Colbert is absolutely killing him . . . and the Lions . . . and me.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L35	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Trap L (Brown)	0
Twos in on offense.  Line downblocks left; center & RT pull left.  RG releases to the second level, which is interesting, but the LG (Salaam) is driven backwards into the running lane.  Brown counters, spins out of a tackle, and then is swarmed at the original LoS.
L35	2-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Run	Draw R (Brown)	+4
Falcons do a little zone blitz here, showing blitz from the Sam, then he backs off and the Mike and nickel back come instead.  Fortunately it's a draw away from the blitz; Salaam pulls and helps Brown pick up solid yardage.
L39	3-6	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Int., TD (Gronkowski)	INT
. . . and this is the rookie part.  Falcons again show one blitz but run another, with the Sam coming, the Mike, Tony Gilbert, backing off, then Gilbert picking up the TE.  Off the play action, Stafford sees Gronkowski on an out route, but the previously-blitzing Gilbert reads Matt's eyes and breaks on the ball.  Pick six.  Ouch.
Sixth drive: 3 plays, 4 yards, INT-TD, 3-16 ATL.  Ow.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L20	1-10	Offset I 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Iso R (Brown)	+4
At the snap, the gap opens up between the RT and TE, but the fullback (Smith?) tries to a nonexistent gap between the RG and RT.  Brown veers left looking for daylight, finds none, but spins out of a tackle and fights for two more yards.
L24	2-6	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Middle L (Williams)	inc.
Great protection up front.  FB runs a flare to the right, Brown stays in to block.  Stafford looks right, then left, and fires to the sideline.  The reciever (#10? Not on roster) is locked up with the CB.  Either WR's route was disrupted, or Stafford leads him too much.  TV feed doesn't show it, but may have been (uncalled) PI.
L24	3-6	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Screen (Ervin)	+22
Offense sells the pass here very well, initial protection looks good, and Stafford "goes through his reads".  Suddenly all the Falcons "beat their man" at the same time, and Stafford floats one to Allen Irvin, in stride.  With a 3-man convoy, Irvin follows/sets up his blocking well, and bursts to the 46.  Great execution by the Lions.
L46	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	PEN	Penalty (False Start)	-5
False start, Derrick Williams.
L41	1-15	I-Form 3 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Rollout Deep R (Fowler)	+31
WR are split wide right, the weak side.  The line blocks right, and Stafford half-heartedly fakes the give to Ervin.  He rolls right; great protection.  He draws back and fires a rocket to Fowler on the 40.  Soft handed catch by Fowler; he hits and drags the CB for a few more.
F37	1-10	I-Form 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Reverse (Jennings)	+8
WR are split far right (ball on right hash, slot on left numbers).  RB seems a step deep; slot WR (Jennings) motions inside.  Before he sets again, ball is snapped, and he sprints backwards as Stafford fakes the handoff.  Jennings takes it, and bursts for 8.
F29	2-1	Offset I 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap R? (Ervin)	-1
RG pulls to the right, but the Falcons run blitz that gap.  Salaam forgets to block the adjacent DE (literally), and the DE comes unblocked.  The Falcons have done a good job of plugging the intended hole, but it doesn’t matter anyway; the DE gets there.
F30	2-2	Single Trips R	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	+6
Hard not to smile here.  No blitz; initial protection sets up well.  Nobody open.  Stafford steps up, still sees nothing, and takes off.  As the DTs release and try to grab him, he slips one, outruns the other, and finally ends up underneath 3 Falcons, grinning like an idiot and trying signal the first while flat on his back.  Awesome.
F26	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Deep R (Fowler)	inc.
Good play action.  Line blocks right, LG pulls.  Stafford sells the play action.  Good protection; he sets up and throws over a double-covered Fowler's head.
F26	2-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Deep L (Williams)	TD
Lions fake an Iso play to the right, with the fullback charging the right guard-tackle gap, and a good play fake.  Stafford sets up, looks to the left, quickly resets right, and fires.  The blitzing safety, who ran right past Salaam, drills Stafford a moment after release.  The pass is gorgeous, right over the shoulder of Williams, just out of reach of the lunging corner (who had great position), and is caught beautifully for a picture-perfect touchdown.  It is this play that I point to when talking about Stafford; in this one play he does everything an NFL quarterback is asked to do, at the speed he needs to do it, with flawless execution.  Perfect!
Seventh drive: 9 plays, 80 yards, TD Lions, 10-16.  Salaam looks wretched; he seems like he has no idea who he is supposed to block.  Other than him, protection was great on this drive.  Williams shows up for a bit, a big relief, and Stafford rebounds from that pick with a truly well-executed drive.  Very, very nice.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L20	1-10	Offset I 2 TE	Base 4-3	Run	Dive R (Irvin)	+2
Stanton in.  Dive play up the middle, Brown slides around looking for daylight, but there isnt any. 2-yard push up front by the OL, but nothing doing after that.
L22	2-8	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare R (Stanton)	+12
Stanton has plenty of time.  He looks over his first three options, and swings it over to Ervin, who does a great job of slipping the CBs tackle, and sprints to the 35.  Ridiculous fumble call quickly reversed.
L34	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Int
Initially an I-form set, Ervin motions out wide to make it a single-back (FB), 3 WR set.  No blitz, protection is good, coverage is good--too good.  Stanton fires into the slot, and an LB, Jamie Winborn was right there to jump the route.  Stanton gets a HUGE break when the Falcons are flagged for PI away from the play.  Terelle Smith picks up a personal foul, too, though, so the play is nullified.
L34	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Iso R (Brown)	+5
Lions go to the ground instead, and with a great lead block by Smith, Brown gains 5.
L39	2-5	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Trap R (Brown)	-1
Aaron Brown (I think?  They're rotating and spotting isn't always easy) on the trap; though the RG pulls to help clear the way, the Falcons run blitz overwhelms the line.  Nothing Brown can do.  Loss of what looks like two.
L37	3-5	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble	+9
Stanton drops back, doesn't see anything open.  Salaam cuts his man's legs (?), and the right guard is beaten inside.  Stanton sees a linebacker coming free and runs.  The center gets free and seals the linebacker off to the left, creating a nice running lane.  Stanton gets nine yards, and judiciously slides--something he's rarely done well.
L48	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Run	Trap R (Ervin)	+14
From the gun, Stanton gives to Ervin.  The pulling RG helps open a nice seam, and again Ervin shows great burst in zipping up the middle for a first down.  Manny Ramirez COMPLETELY manhandles Peria Jerry on this play.
F38	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Sweep R (Brown	+2
Center (Gerberry) pulls, but can't get to his man in time.  Brown has to bounce it back after trying to turn upwards, then makes a beeline for the sideline.  Once there, he turns it back up and gets a nice gain.
F32	2-4	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Iso R (Brown)	TD
Brown takes the handoff, fullback hits the gap between right guard and tackle.  The TE kicks his man out way wide, looks like there's some daylight--but Brown cuts left, hard, and explodes past the defense to the left sideline.  Catching the CB flat-footed, he races, untouched, to the end zone. Touchdown.
Eighth drive: 12 plays, 80 yards, TD.  17-23 Lions.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L26	1-10	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Draw M (Brown)	-3
Rookie DT Vance Walker explodes up the middle; Ramirez got overwhelmed after the initial attack.  Brown bounces off Walker and keeps fighting, but is swarmed.
L23	2-13	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	+27
Stanton does a little half-hearted play fake and looks downfield.  OL picks up the stunt on the right side, and Ervin stuffs the stunting DE on the left.  However, the stunting DT on the left pushes the guard near Stanton's blindside, and he takes off slicing through the D for a huge gain.  I'm not convinced the pressure was all that bad, but he made a better play running here than he would have throwing.
50	1-10	Single 2 TE	Base 4-3	Run	Dive R (Ervin)	+1
Ervin runs to the right, gets stuffed.
F49	2-9	Single 3 WR	Base Nickel	Run	Off-tackle (Brown)	+5
Brown takes it right, and the OL gets great push.  He cuts back one gap and finds a seam.  Nice little gain on a long second down.
F42	3-3	Single 3 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Dive R (Brown)	0
Run to the right, nice job by the OL vs. the DL, but the MLB gets there before Brown can get through the hole.  No gain.  Punt.
Ninth drive: 5 plays, 16 yards.  The Lions were rolling up yards on the ground, 168 at this point.  Stanton making plays like a playmaker.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L20	1-10	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Pass	Naed Bootleg (Gronowsi)	+3
Nice play fake on the rollout by Stanton.  He hits Gronkowsi in stride, but Gronko bobbles it long enough for a defender to get there and prevent any YAC.
L24	2-6	I-Form 2 WR	Base 4-3	Run	Dive (Brown)	-1
Simple run up the middle.  Nothing much came of it.
L25	3-7	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Penalty (Int. Grounding)
Drew intentinonally grounds it, trying to get away from the rush.  Bad plan.
Tenth drive: 3 plays, -5 yards.  Nothing much here; the penalty forces a 3-and-out.
L16	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Middle M (Boldin)	+9
Great protection; Stanton has all day.  Nobody's open downfield, so he hits Boldin underneath.  Decent pickup.
L25	2-1	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble	+5
Stafford has good protection up front, but again can't find anybody open.  Brown appears to be an option, but Stanton sees a linebacker closing, and opts to run for the sideline; he gets it (and the first down) easily.
L31	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Deep M (Smith?)	+34
No blitz; no pressure.  Stanton fakes the handoff (a play action draw?), then pulls back and fires down the right hash to Smith for a big gainer across midfield.  Quick read, great decision, decent (slightly behind) throw.
F35	1-10	2 RB 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Short R (Brown)	TD
Falcons send both LBs; Brown sorta helps the RT with the LE for a second, then releases into the empty flat.  Stanton has time, checks his deep options, then flips it to Brown just as the blitzers get free of their blocks.  The pass hits Brown in stride and he explodes upfield, putting a sick juken on CB Eric Brock, then getting a HUGE block from D.J. Boldin.  Brown races to the end zone and does a 10-even-from-the-Russian-judge roundoff-backflip.  Falcons homer announcer calls both the jawdropping play and the backflip with the same excitement as he would while calling me buying a gallon of milk. Touchdown.
Eleventh drive: 4 plays, 75 yards.  Superb blocking, both in the run game and pass protection. Stanton and Brown are both killing it.
FP	D/D	O FORM	D FORM	TYP	PLAY	YDS
L27	1-10	2 RB 3 WR (gun)	Base Dime (?)	Pass	Scramble, Short L (Holt)	+7
Drew drops back, a nice pocket sets up at first, but then the RE gets free.  He steps up, checks again, still no options, so he takes off for the sideline.  Halfway there, he sees Glenn Holt, pulls up, and fires. A little low, but Holt goes and gets it. Looks like five yards, they seem to spot it for seven, and the scorer says it's 2nd-and-2.  I'll take it.
L35	2-2	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble, Short R (Brown)	inc.
Another initial nice pocket, but again the RE starts to get push.  Stanton runs to his right, and throws at Brown's feet (?).  Not sure if this was a misfire or intentional.
L35	3-2	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Short R (Brown)	+
Good protection; Stanton whips through his reads and sees Brown all alone in the flat.  He swings it out to him, hits him in stride, and Brown gets out-of-bounds after a six-yard pickup.
L41	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	PEN	offsides	+5
Atlanta helps us out by jumping offsides.
L46	1-5	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Middle R (Boldin)	+7
Great dropback and pass; Drew drops, sets, and fires to Boldin in the slot.  Good throw and catch for the first down.
L47	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	spike		inc.
Spike to stop the clock.  Camera keeps cutting to Hanson, who's warming up.
F47	2-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Dime	Pass	Deep R (McMullen)	inc.
Lots of urgency here, only :45 left on the clock and no timeouts.  Drew drops back, has time, fires deep for McMullen; it's high and bounces off his hands.
F47	3-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	Pass	Scramble	+25
I can't tell if this is a planned run or not, but Drew drops back, bounces once, and then sprints between the tackles.  With nobody anywhere near the middle of the field but the umpire, Drew makes a beeline for the 30-yard line.  A good block from Boldin ensures his unimpeded travel into Field Goal Range, where he slides.
L32	1-10	Single 3 WR (gun)	Base Nickel	spike		inc.
The Lions wait for the clock to hit :03 before spiking the ball to stop it.
L32	1-10	Field Goal				FG
Betting on Jason Hanson is always a smart bet.  Field Goal, Lions win 27-24.
Twelfth drive: 12 plays, 57 yards, FG.  Stanton bailed every time he felt pressure (and he was pretty sensitive).  Still, he absolutely made several great plays; you couldn't ask for anything more.  Lions come from behind, clutch up, and win.  YES.

So what have we learned? First, the speed and burst that Aaron Brown displayed throughout training camp and the open practice is for real; the kid is a legitimate playmaker. If Avieon Cason makes the team and he doesn't, it will be an egregious crime. I understand that he has a long way to go in terms of blitz pickup, blocking assignments, and the like--but he's absolutely got the potential be a real weapon.

Second, Daunte Culpepper has proven that he can execute the offense like a veteran. As much as I've relentlessly derided his knack for turning the ball over, he's exhibited calm, poise, and managed the game very well--perhaps too well; he's not throwing downfield, even when the situation demands it. Also, I know it wasn't all his fault, but guess who got sacked on 3rd-and-goal to turn a TD into a field goal? You guessed it.

That brings us to another point: Linehan seems to be focusing on selling the play action.  I noticed a lot of the passes were play action; moreover, I noticed that the Lions almost always blocked the play actions the same way they blocked actual running plays.  I know this is, to an extent, standard practice.  But in this game, the Lions were taking it to the extent of pulling guards the same way, and having the fullbacks and tailbacks hit the hole the same way as they did on the actual traps and isos they ran.  I’ve always thought that “doing the opposite”--running when the defense expects pass and vice versa—is one of the keys to offensive success, knowing that this is a point of emphasis for Linehan is encouraging.

Thirdly, I’ve said it plenty and I’ll say it again, Matt Stafford is at least a decent NFL quarterback.  He may or may not ever establish himself as an elite stud, but just with the things he did in this game, he proved that he belongs with the big boys—right now.  As a corollary, we were treated to some good old-fashioned Drew Stanton Gunslinging Clutch Gamership; the Lions won the game at least partly thanks to his playmaking skills.

Fourthly, if the offensive line is going to be much better this year, it won’t be because of the many veterans signed to be versatile backups.  Salaam was a total liability out there, and Jansen was unremarkable.  The Lions’ offensive linemen are going to have to improve mostly through, well, improvement.  However, a lot of the pressure on the OL can be relieved  through a combination of Linehan’s scheming, the quarterbacks’ decision-making speed, and Kevin Smith’s running ability.

Finally, I apologize again for the lateness of this SFE.  I’m trying to develop a more efficient system for doing the breakdowns, because I will be doing these throughout the regular season.  As my friend and regular commenter Jim said to me, “It’s the preseason for everybody.”  As always, I deeply appreciate your time and patience.

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