The Watchtower: Lions vs. Rams

Finally.

The Lions host the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, and all the months of half-informed, befuddled claptrap about the Lions “regressing” or “taking a step back” or having “discipline problems” or whatever will but up against the hard reality of the Detroit Lions taking the field and playing honest-to-God competitive football.

The baseless “regression” hogwash that floated throughout the diaspora has been logically debunked, most spectacularly by Nate Washuta of Holy Schwartz! and Jeremy Reisman at Detroit OnLion. Now, the Lions have a chance to physically debunk it, by playing four quarters of great football against a team that’s served as a benchmark for Jim Schwartz’s Lions twice before.

It was against the Rams that the Lions suffered the most obnoxious defeat of the 2009 campaign: the Rams’ 17-10 win at Ford Field was their only win of the season, the only “W” standing in between them and repeating the Lions’ 2008 feat.

It was against the Rams that the Lions enjoyed their most emphatic win of the 2010 season: a 44-6 romp that not only answered the question of which team’s turnaround was further along, but served as a desperately-needed release for apoplectic Lions fans; it was a laugher in every sense of the word.

Now, somehow, the stakes are exactly the same: a loss to the lowly Rams would be again be a gut-punch, a convincing win all the proof we need that everything is going to be alright.

Scott Linehan vs. Jeff Fisher

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	JF	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	TEN	30th	27.4	7.27	4.55	20	-21%	6.10	-15%	5.63	20%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	TEN	29th	26.3	6.84	4.22	24	21%	5.03	-15%	5.05	37%

Scott Linehan has faced off against Jeff Fisher twice before: in 2005, as the offensive coordinator of the Dolphins under Nick Saban, and the season before, as architect of the Vikings offense. The ‘04 Vikings were a powerful unit, ranked 6th in the NFL in scoring. They averaged 7.16 yards per pass attempt, and 4.71 yards per carry on the ground—both figures second-best in the NFL.

The Titans were not, as they say, in their glory in these days. In 2004, the Titans were ranked 30th (3rd-worst) in the NFL in scoring defense. They allowed an average of 27.4  points per game, 7.27 yards per pass attempt and 4.55 yards per carry.

Surprisingly, Linehan’s Vikings only scored 20 points against the Titans that day, 21% below their season average. They also held the Vikings to 6.1 YpA, 15% below their season average. The Vikings, however, ran at will: 5.63 YpC, a 20% boost above their already-stout 4.71 season average. Further, it didn’t really matter: the Titans’ offense could only muster a lousy three points; the Vikings didn’t have to put up pinball numbers to win comfortably.

In 2005, the Titans at least managed an offensive touchdown: Billy Volek hit Drew Bennett for a 55-yard score in the fourth quarter. But 10 points couldn’t match the Dolphins’ 24. Linehan’s Dolphins scored 21% more points than their season average against Fisher’s Titans, and again ran wild: 5.05 YpC, a 37% boost over their 2005 norm.

Interestingly, the YpA depression was exactly the same as in 2004: 15%. So we have two contests between these two coaches, with two different teams running the same offensive system against the same defensive system. In both cases, there was a major talent gap: the 2004 and 2005 Titans defenses were terrible overall, the 2005 Dolphins were average, and the 2004 Vikings were excellent.

We have only two games to work with, and the scoring differentials weren’t consistent. But the passing depression was exactly 15% both times, and the running boost was significant both times. I'm willing to declare: when facing Jeff Fisher/Jim Schwartz defenses of poor quality, Scott Linehan offenses tend to pass less effectively, and run much more effectively, than their season averages.

Brian Schottenheimer vs. Gunther Cunningham

Shot

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Gun

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

NYJ

12th

23

6

4.8

DET

19th

23.1

6.75

4.51

24

6%

8.62

45%

3.67

-24%

The last time the Lions faced Brian Schottenheimer, I went on one of my most ridiculous flights of if-then fancy. Not only did I play telephone with Schottenheimer’s mentors and influences, going all the way back to Sid Gillman, I went to ridiculous lengths to construct a narrative from the data I cobbled together. The result? Durr Sharks.

From that original Watchtower, I pointed out:

If there were no systemic advantage or disavantage, the expectation for the Jets’ offense against the Lions’ defense would be 24-27 points.

The Jets needed an overtime field goal to get there, but 24 points is exactly what they scored. That field goal pushed the points delta from –7% to +6%,  to go with a whopping 45% increase in YpA. The Lions, surprisingly, held up very well against the Jets’ bruising running attack, holding them to just 3.67 YpA (-27%) . . . fat lot of good it did them.

That the Jets had the 12th-best offense, and the Lions the 19th-best defense, and they did such a fantastic job of holding down such a powerful running attack (very much unlike the rest of the season). The Jets met scoring expectations, but only because they dragged it out into overtime. Their YpA was extraordinarily high; I’d be surprised if Mark Sanchez equalled that mark in any other game. Of course, he was helped tremendously by two 74- and 52-yard bombs;  subtract those two throws and Schottenheimer’s Jets only netted 5.68 yards per attempt.

The bottom line here is that it seems as though there may be a mild systemic advantage for Jim Schwartz defenses against Brian Schottenheimer offenses, especially against the run. However, I got burned really badly when speculating on Schottenheimer before, and now we’re dealing with a completely different team.

Conclusion

I’m not doing mitigating/augmenting influences this time; we have no strong statistical trends and no data from this season to work with, either. This might also be the most incestuous game I’ve ever Watchtowered, too: Schwartz, of course, coached under Fisher in Tennessee for years, and Gunther Cunningham worked with Brian Schottenheimer (and his father) in Kansas City.

All of these coaches know each other (and each other’s schemes) very well; there’s going to be a lot of chess-matchery going down. But in this battle of student and master—or, should I say, mentor and Grandmaster—the student is playing with quite a few more pieces.

The Rams have two strong running backs and a great pass-rushing defensive line. They also have a young quarterback who’s still more potential than reality, and a bevy of talented new faces in the secondary. They don’t have any real receivers, or an offensive line worth mentioning.

The injuries to the Lions’ secondary make me wonder if this will be a shootout, but I can’t believe the Rams’ offense will be consistent enough to string several scoring drives together. Based on last year’s Lions offensive output and pass rush, plus the Rams’ profound awfulness and in-progress recovery therefrom, I see the most likely outcome as a 32-17 Lions win. As a corrolary, watch to see if the Lions’ systemic advantage in running the ball, and disadvantage passing the ball comes into play.

I can't pretend this is a mathematically derived anything, and so have very low confidence in this projection. AFTER this game, we’ll have a pretty clear idea on whether or not Gunther really does have the drop on his homeboy’s kid, and whether the student truly has become the Grandmaster. Going into it, I’m going with my gut.

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The Watchtower: NFC Playoff Wild Card Round

The Detroit Lions made the playoffs exactly twenty years, after their last playoff win, and their first foe is familiar: the New Orleans Saints. The Saints were the first opponent of the Schwartz era, and they’re also the first opponent this blog Watchtowered. The methods have been refined, the predictions made more specific, and the tables prettier, but the idea is the same: use data to tell the story of the game before the game happens.

When the Lions last went down to New Orleans for an 8:00 pm showcase game, the data told me this story:

The Saints are like the mini-Packers, and the Lions are like the mini-Saints. These two teams hold up a mirror to one another, and the Saints are a little bit better in every phase of the game—except the Lions play much, much better pass defense. I could see this going either way, and the Saints have a huge advantage in the Superdome (they’re 5-0 at home).

However . . . last week I was rooting for a huge Monday Night Football win for the Saints over the Giants. Why? Because we’ve seen all too well what can happen to a team that pulls out all the stops for a huge home MNF win, and face a tough follow-up test the following Sunday. The Saints are due to come out flat, and the Lions are coming off a long week of rest and preparation.

I could sit here and flip thought-experiment coins all day, but that wouldn’t help much. I’ll just follow the numbers: The most likely outcome of the game is a 30-28 Lions win.

The final score was 31-17, but the winner of that game was not the Lions. There were two big reasons for that. First, the Lions without Ndamukong Suh, Chris Houston, and Louis Delmas—so the key phrase “the Lions play much better pass defense” in the above quote didn’t bear out (see my Lions vs. Brees pass defense film breakdown for details). Second, the Lions killed themselves with a few stupid mistakes.

Finally, there was the little matter of the referees:

My personal belief is that the league and/or officials are trying to send a message to the Lions. Now that they’re a “dirty team,” the Lions not only have to play as clean as everyone else, they have to play cleaner. They’re going to get flagged for things no other team gets flagged for. Rough stuff from the other side is going to go unpunished. The league is sending a message to the Lions, and it’s up to them to listen.

Now, the Lions are completely healthy. On Thursday, the Lions had full roster participation in practice: per John Kreger of CBS Rapid Reports, 21 of the 22 Week 1 starters will be expected to start on Saturday night, with Jahvid Best the only casualty. We can presume, then, that the Lions will do a much better job of playing to their season averages on Saturday night. Ah, yes—season  averages.

One of the many, many benefits of making the playoffs is that the 2011 season-average data is actually an entire season; all the highs and lows of this year are as ironed out by sample size as they’ll ever be. With a full roster, and a full season, we can look at these numbers with as much confidence as possible.

Sean Payton vs. Gunther Cunningham

SP	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Gun	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
NYG	21st	20.0	7.20	3.80	TEN	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	29	45%	7.86	9%	2.48	-35%
DAL	15th	20.3	6.68	3.57	KCC	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	27	33%	9.59	44%	5.83	63%
NOS	1st	31.9	8.01	4.50	DET	32nd	30.9	7.79	4.51	45	41%	10.53	31%	4.49	0%
NOS	2nd	34.2	8.08	4.94	DET	23rd	24.2	6.34	5.00	31	-9%	9.50	18%	4.35	-12%

In the last Watchtower, I had a difficult time identifying any consistent trend with the three games Sean Payton had called against Gunther Cunningham. In the first contest, Payton’s Giant’s were the 21st-ranked offense in the NFL, and faced off against Cunningham’s 29th-ranked Titans. The Giants scored way above expectations, 45% better than their season average, despite Tennessee holding them to within 10% of their usual YpA and completely shutting down their run game.

In the next meeting, Payton’s 15th-ranked Cowboys met Gunther’s 16th-ranked Chiefs; a very even matchup of talent. Again, the Cowboys outperformed expectations, scoring a touchdown more than their season average—only this time, the rushing and passing effectiveness were both well above average, too, up 44% and 63% respectively.

Then came 2009's slaughter: the No. 1 Saints scoring offense faced a Lions unit ranked butt-naked last. What happened was predictable: a 41% boost in scoring output, accompanied by a 31% gain in passing effectiveness. Rushing effectiveness, interestingly, stayed flat.

Finally, we have December’s matchup. The Saints’ 34.2 PpG offense was the second-best this season—and it’s been extremely balanced, averaging 8.08 yards per attempt and 4.94 yards per carry. The Lions’ defense is ranked 23rd, allowing 24.2 points per game, 6.34 YpA, and exactly 5.00 YpC.

As discussed above, the Lions pass defense couldn’t meet their typical 2011 performance standards—not with their top interior pass rusher, top cover corner, and playmaking/coverage-quarterbacking safety all out of commission. They allowed 9.50 YpA to Brees and the Saints, 18% better than the Saints’ average gained and 33% more  than the Lions’ average allowed. I’d expect that figure to be between 7.00 and 7.50 on Saturday.

Though the Lions had been allowing a healthy 5.00 YpC all season, and the Saints had been gaining rushing yards at an almost identical rate (4.94), New Orleans only ground out 4.35 YpC last month. That’s a very surprising result; I’ll project the Saints to more closely match their average: between 4.75 and 5.00.

Despite the lack of Suh, Houston, and Delmas—and despite the first-half loss of Nick Fairley, who was having an incredible game—and despite allowing 10.35 yards per attempt and despite allowing 21 points in the second quarter, the Lions still held Brees and New Orleans to 31 total points. That’s right: the 2nd-best offense met the 23rd-ranked defense and scored 9% fewer points than their season average.

Were the systemic wrinkles I caught on film enough to explain the Saints’ underperformance? If so, it’s tempting to project that same advantage on the Lions again. But the Saints have access to way more Lions tape than I do; Gunther and company will have to come up with an all new set of surprises if they want to get the drop on Payton again.

By skill against skill, I'd expect the Saints to score about 40 points. By average against average, it should be 30. By “take what happened last time and add in Suh, Fairley, Houston and Delmas,” it should be 20. But what’s the one thing The Watchtower has taught us, above and beyond anything else? The story of two teams playing against each other twice in one season is never the same.

Throughout this season, I’ve realized that “points per game” is far from an ideal metric. When the offense throws a pick six, that counts against the defense. When the defense gets a pick six, that counts for the offense. Watching the second Minnesota game, the offense played poorly and the defense very well—yet the 34-28 final score suggests a shootout. It’s for these reasons I discount “the Saints hang 40+” storyline that “2nd-best offense versus 23rd-best defense” suggests. Similarly, “A performance + B player = A+B performance” never works cleanly in the NFL.

With full season averages and a fully healthy roster, I give the two teams’ average performance levels the most weight. Therefore, taking into account the projected pass and run figures, I project the Saints to score 27-30 points, passing for 7.00-to-7.50 YpA and rushing for 4.75-to-5.00 YpC. Despite the lack of a strong, consistent historical systemic advantage, I have medium-to-high-confidence in this projection.

Aggravating/Mitigating Factors

As I said above, I don’t see the Saints racking up 40-plus unless the Lions do, too in a Week 17-style track meet. There is the potential for a surprisingly low-scoring game, if Suh, Fairley, Houston, and Delmas all make as big an impact as possible. However, the Lions defense still played very, very well in that game; I’m not sure how many plays those players would have made that their replacements didn’t.

The huge factor in the last game was penalties—stupid ones the Lions made, and terrible ones the referees called. If that factor is removed from the previous meeting, the outcome of that game is likely different.

As potentially huge as each of those two factors could be, they could also potentially be non-factors. I remain confident in the projection.

Scott Linehan vs. Gregg Williams

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	GW	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	8th	24.4	6.60	5.30	HOU	27th	24.8	6.20	4.49	39	60%	6.24	-5%	5.46	3%
MIN	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	HOU	21st	19.3	6.89	3.92	34	34%	7.92	11%	4.69	0%
STL	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	WAS	20th	19.2	7.18	4.47	37	62%	10.21	53%	5.05	19%
DET	27th	16.4	5.12	4.42	NOS	20th	21.3	6.57	4.49	20	22%	4.95	-3%	3.17	-28%
DET	4th	28.7	6.72	4.48	NOS	19th	22.9	6.52	5.03	17	-41%	9.27	38%	3.95	-12%

Throughout the history of the Watchtower, one of the most consistent effects I’ve identified is Scott Linehan offenses against 3-4 defenses, and 4-3 defenses that feature a lot of aggressive blitzing. Gregg Williams and his aggressive 4-3 defense are no different; he has struggled mightily against Scott Linehan offenses.

Look at the first four rows of this table. Linehan’s units were ranked anywhere from 6th-best in the NFL to 6th-worst, and the “PTSΔ” (change in points scored from season average) is massively positive every time. The running and passing effectiveness has been all over the map, with a lot of games near average—so against Gregg Williams defenses, Linehan offenses tend to get better point production from typical between-the-20s performance.

This season the Lions’ 4th-ranked offense, racking up 28.7 points per game, faced the Saints’ just-below-median 22.9 PpG defense—and only scored 17 points. This, despite completing 31 of 44 passes for 408 yards! Stafford’s 9.27 YpA performance was one of his best of the year, and it came with a below-typical-but-not-terrible 3.95 YpC effort from the running game. How could a high-flying offense spend a whole game gaining nearly one first down per pass attempt’s worth of yardage, but only muster 17 points?

Does the phrase "offensive pass interference" mean anything to you?

The Lions had 25 first downs to the Saints’ 21, and outgained them 466 to 438. But that one interception and those critical penalties swung the game around in a big, big way. The other problem was a missed field goal and a blocked field goal, wiping a usually-guaranteed six points off the board.

What are those expectations? I’m glad you asked. Last time, I projected this:

I project the Lions to score 30-33 points, pass for 6.75-7.25 YpA, and rush for 5.00-5.25 YpC. I have medium-high confidence in this prediction.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Actually, there aren’t too many. Unless Stafford completely melts down—or ditching the gloves unleashes a truly magnificent performance—I don’t see much wiggle room here. I expect the Lions to be able to take advantage of the Saints pass defense . . . whether that’s early on in an upset win, or in garbage time of a blowout loss, like last time.

Well, the Lions certainly were able to “take advantage of the Saints pass defense,” two-and-a-half yards per attempt better than I thought they would! Yet Lions’ inability to drive it all the way to the red zone and score killed them. This is the opposite of the effect we usually see when Linehan offenses meet Williams defenses.

The numbers have barely changed since I last looked at them. Even without the advantage, I’d expect the Lions to keep pace with the Saints here—and referees aside, that advantage was in evidence throughout the previous game. I’m going to bump the projected passing effectiveness to account for Stafford’s hot streak, and aim high on the rushing effectiveness because of a healthy Kevin Smith. Hanson won’t miss two field goals again.

Ultimately, I’m going to stay with the data, and project the exact same point total as I did a month ago: 30-33 points, coming from 8.00-8.50 YpA and 4.50-4.75 YpC.

Aggravating/Mitigating Factors

Did I mention the penalties?

Conclusion

It’s the same two teams, nearly the same set of numbers, in the same place at nearly the same time for even higher stakes. Last time Lions performed even better than I expected, but mistakes, injuries, and the officials held them back. I expect the Saints to take their game to the next level, too, though, so I can’t project a complete turning of the tables.

The data, and my instincts, compel me to project an even closer, 31-30, Lions win.

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The Fallen Watchtower: Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders

In the excitement of interviewing Brandon Pettigrew (and Justin Durant, keep your eyes peeled), plus adding stat analysis to my weekly film study, PLUS all the various pre-Christmas festivities, it’s been a wild, wild weekend here at TLiW Headquarters.

Normally, I’d power through and do a full Watchtower, but look: Hue Jackson has the most ridiculous resume I’ve ever seen. Since starting out as a grad assistant at Pacific, Jackson has been promoted, or taken a new gig, nearly every single year. He’s worked at almost every level of college, the NFL, and even the World League of American Football. He’s coached under all kinds of coaches in all kinds of systems, from Marty Schottenheimer to Steve Spurrier and everyone in between.

His offensive coordinator is Al Saunders, a prominent disciple of Don Coryell (along with Norv and Ron Turner, Mike Martz, etc.). But I’d need do to some pretty extensive digging to confidently say how much Air Coryell exists in the Raiders’ current attack. So, I punted.

Raiders offense vs. Lions defense

There’ll be no systemic data here, but we can still compare season averages as usual. The Raiders are the 16th-ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 22.3 points per game. They’re averaging 7.14 YpA through the air, and 4.57 YpC on the ground. If this sounds like a very effective dual-threat offense that keeps shooting itself in the foot, you’re right.

Carson Palmer has thrown an interception on 5.9% of his pass attempts, by far the worst in the NFL. Perspective: Rex Grossman is #2 at 4.6%. The Raiders are also the only team that’s kept pace with the Lions’ league-leading 27 personal fouls. The Raiders’ running attack was extremely potent when Darren McFadden was catalyzing it with his 5.4 YpC, but he’s sidelined for the year with a lingering foot injury. Michael Bush and his 3.9 YpC will be carrying the load today.

The Lions defense is allowing 23.5 points per game, 23rd in the NFL. They’re still only allowing 5.82 YpA through the air, and still a whopping 5.10 YpC on the ground. On the whole, they’re a much better defense than their points-per-game shows; they get a lot of three-and-outs and takeaways—but they also get hosed by the offense giving it back, and both sides of the ball commit a lot of penalties.

I'd expect the Lions to force a lot of turnovers today, especially if Suh and the defensive line can generate pressure without the blitz. I project the Raiders to score 17-21 points, passing for 6.00-6.50 YpA and rushing for 4.50-4.75 YpC.

Lions offense vs. Raiders defense

The Lions have been Jekyll and Hyde all season long. Their passing game has been everywhere from dominant to disjointed, and their rushing game has been everything from unstoppable to invisible. On the whole, the Lions are averaging 28.2 points per game, still 4th-best in the NFL. They're still averaging 6.91 YpA, and 3.68 YpC.

Kevin Smith returns (again) this week, so perhaps the running game will be a little closer to the former than the latter. Matthew Stafford has been “on,” or close to it, for three out of the last four weeks. On the average, the Lions’ offense is a less potent-but-more-effective version of the Raiders’. In the specific, when Matthew Jekyll (and his offensive line) shows up the Lions are one of the best offenses going . . . Mr. Jekyll shows up most often against bad passing defenses.

The Raiders are allowing 27.2 points per game, 28th-best (4th-worst) in the NFL. However, like the Lions, their pass defense is quite stout: they’re allowing must 6.24 YpA. But like the Lions, they “can’t stop the run;” they’re allowing a ridiculous 5.24 YpC on the ground.

Though the Lions should do much better than average against the 28th-ranked defense, the Raiders’ tight pass defense and raucous home crowd should depress scoring a bit. I project the Lions to score 28-32 points, averaging 6.75-7.25 YpA and 4.50-4.75 YpC.

Conclusion

Jeremy Reisman of Detroit OnLion will actually be at the game—and not just there, but in Section 104, in the heart of the Black Hole. On last week’s Fireside Chat he promised to wear his Honolulu Blue; please admire his spirit and pray for his safety. If you’re curious how to cheer in non-Lions games, follow Pride of Detroit’s Rooting Guide.

As for the Lions? I project a 30-17 Lions victory, though both numbers could easily be swayed either way by turnovers or penalties.

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The Watchtower: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

The last time the Vikings played at Ford Field, they were the home team. Now, they couldn’t be less welcome guests. After the Week 3 contest that teetered on the brink of disaster, Jared Allen & Co. are coming to Detroit, dead set on finishing what they started. The Lions and Vikings are headed in opposite directions: the Lions started 5-0 but are 2-5 since; the Vikings are 2-10 but have found their quarterback in rookie Christian Ponder, and might be getting Lion tamer Adrian Peterson back.

As before, this game is a must-win for the Lions. The Lions are favored by as much as 11.5 points as of this writing; surely the heaviest they’ll be favored by for the remainder of the year. Moreover, as a division opponent (and common opponent with the Falcons and Saints), the Lions’ record against the Vikings strongly affects the Lions playoff tiebreakers.

Bill Musgrave vs. Gunther Cunningham

Mus

Gun

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

MIN

DET

22nd

20.5

6.28

4.92

21st

23.1

6.06

4.81

23

12.1%

5.86

-6.7%

5.74

16.7%

In the previous Watchtower, I found that Bill Musgrave had never faced off against Gunther Cunningham as a signal caller—and though he boasts strong Bill Walsh offense credentials, he has a diverse resumé and does not run a Childress-style WCO in Minnesota.

In the first meeting, the Vikings managed to score 23 points. That’s almost a field goal above their season average—fitting, because the Lions’ defense is currently ranked 21st, just below the middle. The Vikings are averaging a decent 6.28 YpA through the air, and a monster 4.92 YpC on the ground.

Of course, the Lions aren't facing the Vikings they faced last time. Donovan McNabb started at quarterback in that game, and he's since been supplanted by first-round rookie Christian Ponder. To the surprise of many observers, though, Ponder hasn’t been able to shake a supposedly-minor hip injury; he did not practice on Thursday. If he can’t play on Sunday, last year’s sixth-round pick Joe Webb will get the start.

The Vikings got some very good news when Adrian Peterson had limited participation in Thursday’s practice and was able to cut without pain. If Joe Webb is under center and All Day isn’t lining up behind him, the Vikings are going to get their doors blown off.

There's no evidence of a systemic advantage or disadvantage here, but if Ponder, Peterson, or both are not 100% the Vikings will be in trouble. If Ponder and Peterson can go, I’d still expect the Vikings to fall just short of expectations, scoring 17-20 points, passing for 6.00-6.50 YpA and rushing for 5.00-5.25 YpA. If either Ponder or Peterson cannot start, those figures fall to 13-17 points, 5.50-6.00 YpA, and 4.50-4.75 YpC. With little historical info, I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Well, I pretty much laid them out for you up there: if Ponder and AD go at 100%, the Vikings should be good for roughly their season average. If either cannot start, or if one or both are significantly limited, the Vikes are going to be very hard-pressed to move the ball. Banged-up secondary or no, the Lions defense should be going for the juglar from the opening snap. An early turnover or barrage of sacks could get the Lions up quickly—and put it in cruise control. I don’t see a scenario where the Vikings score more than three touchdowns.

Scott Linehan vs. Leslie Frazier

Lin	Fra	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	TBB	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	1st	12.2	4.88	3.79	24	1.6%	7.78	17.9%	7.52	41.9%
MIN	IND	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	19th	21.9	7.15	4.43	28	9.7%	8.89	24.2%	5.75	22.1%
MIA	TBB	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	8th	17.1	6.15	3.46	13	-44.7%	6.21	5.5%	3.56	-3.6%
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	13	-26.1%	5.07	-3.8%	3.79	-3.3%
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	10	-64%	4.39	-16.7%	4.23	0.2%
DET	MIN	14th	22.8	5.99	3.99	16th	21.9	6.36	3.92	10	-66.2%	5.51	-8.1%	3.32	-16.8%
DET	MIN	14th	22.8	5.99	3.99	16th	21.9	6.36	3.92	20	-14%	6.62	10.5%	3.96	-0.8%
DET	MIN	4th	27.8	6.89	4.44	31st	27.5	7.53	3.76	26	-3.6%	8.22	19.3%	0.95	-78.7%
DET	MIN	4th	27.8	6.89	4.44	31st	27.5	7.53	3.76

From the last Watchtower:

In Watchtowers past, I’ve found there is a mild systemic advantage for Scott Linehan offenses against Leslie Frazier defenses. However, in each of the last two games, critical red zone turnovers have short-circuited that advantage, and the Lions’ offense has underperformed expectations. Today, Matthew Stafford will leading the offense, instead of Shaun Hill—and I’ll presume the Lions’ systemic advantages remain intact.

What happened was not quite what I expected. The Watchtower review explains:

The story of the game was the one I worried about: the Vikings playing their brains out, the crowd noise and the pass rush handing the Vikings the momentum, and the Lions finding themselves having to scrap their way out of a hole, as opposed to putting it in the cooler.

This is why I was so grumpy about the probably-enhanced crowd noise: it made an enormous difference in the way the game played out. The lesson to take away from this game, and this Watchtower, is that the Lions are clearly much better than the Vikings. The Lions took Minnesota’s best shot—and staggered—but leaned on the ropes long enough for their talent and skill to win the day.

So what we have here is the 4th-highest-scoring offense that squared off against what has been the 31st-best (2nd-worst) scoring defense and didn’t, quite, meet its season scoring average. This continues a trend we’ve seen with Frazier and Linehan that’s kicked in just since Linehan took over the Lions offense: turnovers (and dirty cheating fake Viking crowd noise) are severely depressing the Lions’ scoring, even as passing effectiveness is boosted.

Obviously, the crowd noise won’t be slowing the Lions down on Sunday, but this is too strong of a trend to ignore. I’m going to say Leslie Frazier defenses disproportionately disrupt Scott Linehan offenses with sacks and turnovers, even while allowing greater per-attempt passing effectiveness. Since the Lions have been especially turnovery lately, I project the Lions to significantly underperform expectations. However, expectations would be that the Lions, facing the second-worst defense in the league, would exceed their scoring averages by 10-14 points. So, the Lions should score 33-35 points, pass for 8.00-8.50 YpA, and rush for 4.00-4.25 YpC.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Or, the Lions crowd could give it to the Vikings almost as good as the Metrodome sound reinforcement system gave it to the Lions, and for the fourth time this year the Lions get back on track after a shaky game by hanging forty points on somebody.

Conclusion

I’m hoping this game mirrors the Broncos game: where the Lions work out a few weeks of frustrations by completely dominating an inferior opponent. The crowd will be on their side. The injuries to the Vikings’ stud running back, only serviceable quarterback, and half their defense should help swing momentum their way too.

But things haven’t gone too rosy for my Watchtower projections as of late, because the Lions keep drawing ridiculous penalties, shooting themselves in the foot, getting field goals blocked and other such nonsense. They’re moving the ball just like they have been all season, but it hasn’t translated into points. That this seems to be the Vikings’ particular mojo vs. the Lions scares me, too. So, I project that the most likely outcome of the game is a 35-20 Lions win. This presumes that Ponder and All Day make their starts and are significant fractions of healthy. If not, well . . . it’s time for that #BEATEMDOWN.

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The Watchtower: Lions at Saints

This Watchtower is a little extra special to me. The last time the Lions played at New Orleans, it was the first regular season game of Jim Schwartz’s career. It was the first regular season game after the founding of this blog. And to prepare for it, I wrote the first Watchtower.

It was a rough-and-ready thing. I didn’t have my table CSS figured out, and I didn’t project a score or per-play effectiveness. Most of the piece is spent explaining the Watchtower concept, and not on analysis. However, I isolated some systemic advantages, and told the story of the game: “The most probable outcome of this game is a shootout that the Lions lose.”

Honestly, that was giving the Lions a touch more credit than they deserved. The eventual Super Bowl champion Saints were up 14-0 within what seemed like minutes of kickoff, and they barely slowed down. Drew Brees threw for six touchdowns, and images from the blowout loss were plastered all over Madden ‘10. Louis Delmas returned a fumble 65 yards for a touchdown, which made the final score 45-27 instead of 45-20. Then again, for a team fresh off 0-16 against a team about to go 13-3 en route to winning it all, it wasn’t too bad.

This time, these two teams are much more evenly matched. The Saints are 8-3, one game ahead of Atlanta in the NFC South. The Lions are 7-4, knotted up with Chicago for second place in the NFC North. With Chicago going up against patsy Kansas City, a win would mean the world for their chances of hanging with the Bears. A loss could put one more nail in the Lions’ coffin.

Sean Payton vs. Gunther Cunningham

Pay	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Gun	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
NYG	21st	20	7.2	3.8	TEN	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	29	45%	8.04	16.7%	1.53	-60%
DAL	15th	20	6.7	3.6	KCC	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	27	33%	9.59	44%	5.83	63%
NOS	1st	31.9	8.01	4.50	DET	32nd	30.9	7.80	4.42	45	41%	10.53	31%	4.49	0%
NOS	2nd	32.9	7.74	4.83	DET	18th	22.4	5.75	4.84

In previous Watchtowers, I thought I'd identified a systemic advantage for Gunther Cunningham defenses against Sean Payton offenses. But looking at the numbers today--and including the 2009 game--it's hard to come to the same conclusion.

Almost without fail, Gunther's defenses have been heavily outmanned when facing Payton's offenses. Trying to distinguish between fine shades of blowout is not a methodology that will produce strong results.

So, let's look at this season. The Saints are the second-best offense in football, scoring 32.9 points per game. No surprise, Drew Brees leads the way: the Saints are averaging 7.79 YpA. However, the Saints' running back by committee is one of the most effective platoons I've ever seen: they've chewed up ground at 4.83 yards per carry, to the tune of 1,380 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Defensively, the Lions currently rank 18th, allowing 22.4 points per game. But they've been playing much better than that; note the outstanding 5.75 yards per attempt allowed. They've been run on--allowing 4.84 YpC--but they've been great.

The reason the defensive points-allowed doesn't look that great is because of the offense and the special teams. Since the 5-0 start the defense has had to contend with the offense turning it over, the offense going three-and-out, and the kick coverage teams allowing plenty of long returns and short fields for the other team.

Still, it is what it is: opposing teams are scoring an average of 22.4 points per game on the Lions, and the Saints are much more potent than an "average" offense.

Given, though, how the Lions put the clamps on the Packers, I can't project the Saints to exceed their season average. I project the Saints to score 27-30 points, passing for 6.50-7.00 YpA, and rushing for 4.75-5.00 YpC. Without a clear systemic effect, I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection..

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

There are several aggravating factors here, and their names are Ndamukong Suh, Chris Houston, and Louis Delmas. They will be missing, and it will be aggravating.I still think the Lions can slow down the Saints' passing attack, but it's going to be a tougher task. Many will worry about the Saints' running game--but as we've seen many times this season, the Lions can handle a potent running game.

Really, the biggest problem facing the defense is the offense.

Scott Linehan vs. Gregg Williams

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	GW	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	HOU	27th	24.8	6.20	4.49	39	60%	6.24	-5%	5.46	3%
MIN	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	HOU	21st	19.3	6.89	3.92	34	34%	7.92	11%	4.69	0%
STL	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	WAS	20th	19.2	7.18	4.47	37	62%	10.21	53%	5.05	19%
DET	27th	16.4	5.12	4.42	NOS	20th	21.3	6.57	4.49	20	22%	4.95	-3%	3.17	-28%
DET	4th	28.7	6.72	4.48	NOS	19th	22.9	6.52	5.03

Ah, yes, the offense. For all its struggles, the Lions offense is still the 4th-most potent in the NFL. Averaging 28.7 points per game, the Lions are still putting up points. However, the shift in per-play effectiveness has been dramatic. Going into Monday Night Football, the Lions were averaging 7.44 YpA and 2.95 YpC. Since then, as you can see, the rushing game has gotten far more potent, but the passing effectiveness has fallen off a cliff. Now the Lions are only averaging 6.72 YpA, though they’re grinding out 4.48 YpC.

This has been a reflection of both the tougher defenses the Lions have face, and Matthew Stafford’s struggles with consistency. The Saints defense, statistically, is very similar to the Lions’: 19th-ranked in scoring at 22.9 PpG, allwoing 6.52 YpA and 5.03 YpC.

In the previous Watchtower, I identified a strong trend: Linehan offenses tend to outperform expectations against Gregg Williams offenses. The situation is similar comparing Payton offenses to Cunningham defenses: in every meeting, the offense had a significant upper hand, and performed significantly above their season averages . . . until 2009.

In the last meeting between the Lions and Saints, the Lions had the 27th-ranked offense. They were averaging a pathetic 5.12 YpA through the air, and the solid 4.42 YpC couldn’t make up for it. Yet, when going up against the 20th-ranked Saints defense, the Lions scored 20 offensive points. This, despite falling well short of their usual rushing effectiveness, and slightly shy of their average YpA.

Even if I’m reaching slightly on the specific versus-Williams advantage (and, look at the numbers, I don’t think I am), the Lions typically do well against aggressive 3-4 defenses. With that in mind, I project the Lions to score 30-33 points, pass for 6.75-7.25 YpA, and rush for 5.00-5.25 YpC. I have medium-high confidence in this prediction.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Actually, there aren’t too many. Unless Stafford completely melts down—or ditching the gloves unleashes a truly magnificent performance—I don’t see much wiggle room here. I expect the Lions to be able to take advantage of the Saints pass defense . . . whether that’s early on in an upset win, or in garbage time of a blowout loss, like last time.

Conclusion

The Saints are like the mini-Packers, and the Lions are like the mini-Saints. These two teams hold up a mirror to one another, and the Saints are a little bit better in every phase of the game—except the Lions play much, much better pass defense. I could see this going either way, and the Saints have a huge advantage in the Superdome (they’re 5-0 at home).

However . . . last week I was rooting for a huge Monday Night Football win for the Saints over the Giants. Why? Because we’ve seen all too well what can happen to a team that pulls out all the stops for a huge home MNF win, and face a tough follow-up test the following Sunday. The Saints are due to come out flat, and the Lions are coming off a long week of rest and preparation.

I could sit here and flip thought-experiment coins all day, but that wouldn’t help much. I’ll just follow the numbers: The most likely outcome of the game is a 30-28 Lions win. From these numbers to the Football Gods’ ears, eh?

*** IMPORTANT: FIRESIDE CHAT WILL BE AT HALFTIME. ***

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Slowing Down Drew Brees & the Saints With the 3-3-5

With the suspension of Ndamukong Suh, the Detroit Lions are down one starting interior lineman. With injuries to Louis Delmas, Chris Houston and Brandon McDonald, the Lions may be down two starters and one contributor in the secondary. Now, they face the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL: Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.

How can the Lions hope to slow down the lightning-fast Saints without their best interior pass rusher and a banged-up secondary? The answer may lie in a package the Lions deployed on Thanksgiving: the 3-3-5 nickel.

The Lions have used this formation a few times before, most extensively in their first win under Jim Schwartz. Gunther Cunningham’s talk about it during his first minicamp as Lions DC helped fuel speculation the Lions would run a base 3-4. Here's how it looks:

The four square boxes are the three nickel cornerbacks, along with safety Amari Spievey. They're playing tight man-to-man coverage on the three Packers wideouts, as well as tight end Jermichael Finley. Louis Delmas is playing one-high zone, lined up deep off camera.

Kyle Vanden Bosch stays put at right defensive end, but 330-pound Sammie Hill is in at the zero-technique nose tackle. Suh is playing LDE. Behind them are the Lions' base linebackers: MLB Stephen Tulloch, and OLBs DeAndre Levy and Justin Durant.

The down and distance here is 3rd-and-3, so the Lions are trying to force a quick incompletion. Let's watch what happens:

The Lions blitz all three linebackers, bringing a total of six rushers. The Packers send Finley out but keep RB John Kuhn in to block, for a total of six blockers. The Packers do establish a pocket, but QB Aaron Rodgers knows he doesn't have all day. He throws the short out to Greg Jennings, and the tight coverage forces him to lead Jennings to the sideline rather than downfield. Even if Jennings had been able to keep his feet, Eric Wright was there to help prevent the first down.

This is a very aggressive play call, but it's perfect for the situation, and would be effective against the Saints' many multi-WR sets.

In different situations, the Lions could blitz two, one or none; this would allow for a variety of zone and man-coverage packages. Defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham could also do some clever stuff with safety and zone blitzes. By platooning Durant (an outstanding run stopper) with Bobby Carpenter (much better in coverage), the Lions could further tailor this package to suit non-nickel situations.

The onus would be on the defensive line to continue to bring pressure and maintain outside run containment, but the Lions' depth will help them there. Sammie Hill and Corey Williams could platoon at the two-gap nose tackle spot, with DTs Nick Fairley and Andre Fluellen at left end. Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril could platoon at RDE, though asking Avril to fill two run lanes might be asking too much.

Running the 3-3-5 for 40 or 50 snaps would give Brees time to figure out the looks and attack the deep coverage, especially if the Lions need to blitz two or more players to get pressure.

But, if the Lions are to have a chance, they'll need to avoid what happened the last time they went to the Superdome at all costs: two Saints touchdowns in the first few minutes, leading to a 47-25 blowout. Running a lot of 3-3-5 early, with a lot of blitzing and confusion, could keep the Saints off-balance enough to give Matthew Stafford—and the Lions—a chance.

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Thanksgiving Watchtower: Detroit Lions vs. Packers

This is it.

This game is the game. The game that everything is riding on, the game that everything has come down to. The Lions have done their part through the first ten weeks of the season, going 7-3. They’re neck-and-neck with the Bears, and keeping within striking distance of the 10-0 Packers. They’re two games into the difficult half of their schedule, and though it’s been a painful test, they’re as close to the mountaintop by as anyone could have expected.

With a win, the Lions make the NFC North title race a race again, clawing to within two games of the Packers and picking up the head-to-head tiebreaker. With a win, the Lions will have handled one of the two “hard” games the Bears won’t have to handle. With a win, the Lions solidify their hold on the division-record tiebreaker—the mark that gives the Lions the upper hand on the Bears, even after being blown out by them in Week 9.

The Lions, as always, get a national showcase for this game. After years of hearing the pundits gripe about how our team is harshing America’s collective turkey buzz, there isn’t a game the football-watching world would rather see.

Mike McCarthy vs. Gunther Cunningham

McC	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Gun	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
NOS	14th	21.2	6.43	4.46	TEN	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	12	-43%	8.04	25%	1.53	-66%
NOS	14th	21.8	6.62	3.96	KCC	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	27	24%	9.59	45%	5.83	47%
GBP	3rd	28.8	7.56	4.30	DET	32nd	30.9	5.42	4.42	26	-10%	9.68	28%	3.57	-17%
GBP	3rd	28.8	7.56	4.30	DET	32nd	30.9	5.42	4.42	34	18%	8.92	18%	2.96	-31%
GBP	10th	24.2	7.63	3.81	DET	19th	23.1	6.75	4.51	21	-13%	10.65	40%	4.28	12%
GBP	10th	24.2	7.63	3.81	DET	19th	23.1	6.75	4.51	3	-88%	6.03	-21%	3.30	-13%
GBP	1st	35.5	9.18	3.88	DET	19th	21.9	5.45	4.97

Over the years, Gunther Cunningham’s defenses have consistently put the clamp on Mike McCarthy’s offenses. Time and time again, the Packers fall well short of what you’d expect when a high-flying Packers air attacks meets a mediocre-to-terrible Lions defense. Look at the chart above. Note the respective offensive and defensive ranks, and points-scored deltas: there’s an undeniable trend.

For 2010's first Packers game, I projected the Lions defense to be relatively stingy; they did even better than I projected. When the 10th-ranked scoring offense (7th at the time) faces the 19th-ranked scoring defense (25th at the time), and they score 13% fewer points than average, something is up.

When Watchtowering last year’s second Packers game, I couldn’t fully trust this effect. The numbers, combined with a strong systemic advantage, were projecting a seriously low-scoring effort from Green Bay. I couldn’t believe the Lions’ D could do it again—so when I projected the Packers’ point totals, I pulled back the reins:

It seems unlikely that the Lions’ defense does that well against an offense that good twice in a row, though, so I’m going to project the Packers to slightly underperform scoring expectations: gaining 23-26 points. I expect the Lions to be more successful defending the pass with zone coverage, allowing 8.0-8.5 YpA, at the expense of fewer interceptions. The Lions will likely cede the run to the Packers again, allowing 4.25-4.5 YpC. I have high confidence in this projection.

Of course, nobody could predict the Lions holding the Packers to just a measly field goal. They knocked Aaron Rodgers out of the game with a concussion in the second quarter—and despite what Rodgers and Packer fans will tell you, that wasn’t the only reason the Lions were successful against him. Before leaving the game Rodgers attempted 11 passes, completing seven of them for 46 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick.

This season, the Packers offense is #1 in the NFL, racking up a ridiculous 35.5 points per game. It’s no surprise that Rogers and his array of targets are fueling this scoring machine; they’re moving the ball through the air an average of 9.18 yards a pop. The ground game has struggled at times, but at 3.88 YpC it hasn’t been awful.

After the slew of defensive and return touchdowns in the past two weeks (which I cannot find season scoring totals that correctly exclude), the Lions defense is now technically the 19th-best in the NFL, allowing 21.9 points per game. You can see in the effectiveness stats that those averages don’t reflect the true performance of the secondary: they’re allowing a miniscule 5.45 YpA this season. On the ground, the Lions defense has allowed 4.97 YpC—this is actually an improvement; the Lions are no longer allowing more yards per rushing attempt than passing attempt.

The defense gets sacks, gets turnovers, stiffens up on third down, and gets stops. This is doubly true when the offense isn’t going three and out, or turning it over right back, and the coverage units aren’t allowing scores. On Thanksgiving, the Lions’ defense will need the Lions offense to help them get it done.

Without any systemic advantage, I would expect the Packers to slightly outperfom their season average against the 19th-ranked defense. Taking the strong systemic advantage into account, I project the Packers offense to score 27-30 points, passing for 7.00-7.50 YpA and rushing for 4.25-4.50 YpC. I have medium-high confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Sometimes, my projection seems very close to the “ceiling” or the “floor” of possible scenarios. For example, I thought Monday Night Football game against the Bears could be lower-scoring than I projected, but not higher. This game has wild possible movement in both directions.

All season long, the Packers have gotten themselves caught up in shootouts. They get a big lead early, but their secondary can’t shut down the other team. The Packers then have to keep the pedal to the metal to stay ahead of the other team. It is possible, if not probable, that this happens on Thanksgiving; I have been telling everyone to prepare for a possible 100-point combined effort.

Then again, the Lions scoring defense had been a Top 10 defense all season long, up until the last two weeks’ explosion of turnover- and special-teams-fueled scoring. By Pro Football Focus grades, they’re still the NFL’s second-best pass coverage unit. They simply don’t get beaten through the air.

If the Lions jump out to an early lead instead, I can see the Lions defense shutting the Packers passing game down—and dramatically depressing their scoring output.

Scott Linehan vs. Dom Capers

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Dom	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	HOU	21st	19.3	6.89	3.92	34	34%	7.92	11%	4.69	0%
STL	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	MIA	21st	21.6	6.61	2.35	12	-17%	4.26	-25%	4.30	9%
DET	24th	18.1	5.60	3.91	GBP	12th	20.3	6.17	4.46	0	-100%	4.20	-25%	4.33	11%
DET	27th	16.4	7.80	4.42	GBP	7th	18.6	5.96	3.59	12	-27%	4.95	-37%	3.17	-28%
DET	15th	22.6	6.02	3.99	GBP	2nd	15.0	5.90	4.65	26	15%	6.13	2%	5.86	47%
DET	15th	22.6	6.02	3.99	GBP	2nd	15.0	5.90	4.65	7	-69%	5.32	-0.12	4.63	16%
DET	3rd	30.1	6.79	4.30	GBP	15th	21.2	7.40	4.72

When Scott Linehan offenses meet Dom Capers defenses, something very interesting happens. It’s one of the strongest statistical trends that has ever cropped up in The Watchtower. First, the Linehan offenses tend to rush much better than expected. Second, they tend to outperform scoring expectations as a result. Third, and most interestingly, quarterback runs are wildly more successful than usual.

This was a quirk Commenter Matt noticed back in 2009, and it’s held up. Before last season’s game against the Packers at home, it drove me to boldly predict the following:

The Lions will be starting Drew Stanton, whose running ability is well-known, and whom the Lions have never hesitated to call designed running plays for. I expect to see at least one rushing touchdown, or 20-plus-yard scramble, from Drew Stanton on Sunday.

Stanton rushed 4 times for 44 yards, with a YpC of 10.0 and long of 17. As a whole, Jahvid Best, Maurice Morris, Stefan Logan and Stanton combined for 4.63 YpC, over half a yard per carry better than season averages. Might the Lions draw up some surprise quarterback draws for Stafford? Or, might he scramble for some yardage? It’s something to keep an eye on. Of course, it didn’t translate into any more than a measley seven points, thanks in part to two Stanton picks and a missed field goal.

If the offense turns it over twice in the first three possessions for the third straight week, it’s going to be hard for the Lions to meet expectations.

However, those expectations will be extremely high. The Lions are scoring 30.1 points per game, third-best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Packers defense is ranked 17th, allowing 21.2 points per game. Keen observers will note the Lions’ and Packers’ units are ranked very, very similarly to each other. Without any kind of systemic advantage factored in I’d project the Lions to slightly outperform season averages, just as said I’d do for the Packers above.

However, we have a strong systemic advantage in place—and look at the per-play effectiveness stats! The Packers’ pass defense is allowing 1.95 more yards per passing attempt than the Lions’. Their rushing-allowed and scoring-allowed figures are nearly identical, though. Again, we know why this discrepancy exists: the Lions defense has been victimized by special teams and defensive scores in the past two weeks.

It’s hard to project Kevin Smith to repeat his NFL Offensive Player of the Week performance, or anywhere close, on Thursday. But his dramatic welcome-back party plays right into the Lions’ hands. With a back that can take advantage of the Lions’ systemic advantage, the Lions should exceed nominal expectations.

Therefore, I project the Lions to score 33-35 points, passing for 7.0-7.50 YpA and rushing for 4.75-5.0 YpC. I have very high confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Well, jeez, there’s a lot of stuff going on here. The bottom line is that we have two very high-powered offenses, and two middling defenses. However, there are very strong systemic advantages in play when the ball’s moving in either direction, and both of them favor the Lions. There’s a very high potential for a “whoever scores last wins” kind of shootout, in which case whoever scores last will win, and the Packers have won half their games by being the kind of team that always finds a way to score last.

If that’s not what happens, though, the Lions have the upper hand.

The Lions should run and pass more effectively than the Packers, and God willing that will translate into more points—without too much interference from turnovers or return touchdowns. If, however, the Lions play with fire for the third straight week, they will get burned.

Conclusion

Of course, there’s one more factor I haven’t mentioned: us. The Lions fans. The ones who, in the words of Peter King, were the “ninth, 10th, 11th and 12th man in the Oct. 10 Monday night win over the Bears,” and awarded a game ball for our contributions.

If we do our part on Thanksgiving like we did on Monday Night Football, if we force the Packers into beating themselves with false starts and allowed sacks, the Lions will have every opportunity to make my projection of a 33-30 Lions win look brilliant.

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,green bay packers,thanksgiving,the watchtower,jim schwartz,mike mccarthy,gunther cunningham,dom capers

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The Watchtower: Lions at Broncos

This game sets fire to the Watchtower concept as a whole. Everything about this game confounds this process. The Broncos offensive coordinator has never been a coordinator, or even a coach, under anyone but John Fox. Even if he had, the offense the Broncos are running for Tebow is nothing like the one the Panthers ran with Jake Delhomme, etc.

On the Lions side, the offense of the last two weeks has not resembled the offense of the first five. Last week, I happily predicted a 34-37 point performance for the Lions, and they couldn’t muster half that. Is this a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the season, or just a bump in the road?

I can’t tell you. But what I can do is compare the two teams’ performances so far, and tell you what ought to happen.

Mike McCoy vs. Gunther Cunningham

McCoy

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Gun

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

DEN

21st

20.5

6.35

4.39

DET

7th

19.6

5.57

5.03

As I said above, Mike McCoy has one of the weirdest resumes I’ve ever broken down. He played quarterback in the CFL. After retiring, he immediately joined the Panthers under OC Bill Musgrave, who I Watchtowered earlier this year (he’s now the Vikings OC). After Musgrave resigned in shame, the Panthers brought in Dan Henning, the current Miami OC (the guy who deployed Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in the Wildcat).

It was under Henning that McCoy ascended from "offensive assistant" to QB coach. Though Henning was fired after a disappointing 2006 campaign, Fox kept McCoy around. Henning was replaced by Jeff Davidson, a member of the Belichick/Weis coaching tree. It's likely this experience that's informing McCoy's current offense, with a lot of multi-WR shotgun and multi-TE inside runs.

However, trying to analyze Gunther Cunningham’s success against Weis-style offenses would be folly, because once the ball is snapped, the plans go out the window.

When the Broncos line up under center, they’re doing a nice mix of power runs and clever zone stretch type stuff. Very very very little passing, and even then it’s one-read stuff like screens. When the Broncos line up in shotgun, it’s either a screen, or Tebow Time.

Ndamukong Suh and Cliff Avril are going to have three sacks apiece. Why? They’re relentless in pursuit. Tebow, if he doesn’t have an obvious read, breaks down and starts running around looking to make something happen. It reminds me—a lot—of Mike Vick. Tebow isn’t quite as dangerous on a broken play as Vick, but he’s plenty dangerous. What Tebow must work on is executing the offense; when you see the Broncs line up in a multi-WR shotgun the playcall is effectively “Broken Play.”

The Broncos are averaging 20.5 points per game, 21st-best in the NFL. The Lions scoring defense is ranked 7th, allowing just 19.6. The Broncos are averaging 6.35 YpA, and a solid 4.39 YpC. The Lions are still only allowing 5.57 YpA, which is really pretty incredible. However, the run defense is still alowing 5.03 YpC. I project the Broncos to score 15-17 points, pass for 5.75-6.25 YpA, and rush for 4.75-5.50 YpC. I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection.

Scott Linehan vs. John Fox

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Fox	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	8th	24.4	6.60	5.30	CAR	5th	18.9	5.73	3.69	14	-43%	6.37	-3%	4.06	-23%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	CAR	5th	16.2	5.79	3.59	27	36%	5.18	-13%	4.80	30%
STL	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	CAR	8th	19.1	6.00	3.87	0	-100%	4.17	-38%	3.75	-12%
DET	6th	27.7	7.19	4.08	DEN	29th	25.8	7.43	3.86

An itinerant, quick-climbing defensive backs coach in college and the pros, John Fox was Pitt’s Defensive Coordinator/DBs coach when Chuck Noll hired him to coach DBs for the Steelers. John Fox is technically a member of the Chuck Noll coaching tree, but if you’re looking for an extensive 3-4 pedigree, you’ll have to look elsewhere.

After three seasons in Pittsburgh, Fox moved on to play the same role in San Diego. He was hired to coordinate the Raiders D by Art Shell, and stuck around for the first year of the Mike White days. Though Fox’s defenses were 17th and 10th in his two years, Fox abruptly resigned as Raiders DC. He has since hinted that clashes with Al Davis forced him out.

His next real gig was coordinating the Giants defense under Jim Fassel; he eventually built a top 5 defense that took the Giants to the Super Bowl. He got his first head coaching job replacing a legend: Carolina Panthers coach George Seifert. Of course, Seifert wasn’t a legend for his work in Carolina, and Fox’s nine-year run nearly quintupled his predecessor’s. Throughout almost all of this, Fox ran a very effective 4-3.

Of course, the Broncos just switched to a 3-4 a couple of years ago, but that didn’t stop Fox from declaring his intent to switch back. The stunning lack of talent on the defensive side is exactly what you’d expect from a team that has overhauled it’s roster to go from 4-3 to 3-4 and back in three seasons.

In Fox’s prior meetings with Linehan, though, lack of talent was never a problem. In 2002, Linehan’s 8th-ranked Minnesota Vikings took on Fox’s 5th-ranked Panthers. Despite an offense that was putting up 24.4 points per game, the Vikings only mustered 14 against Fox’s Panthers. The Vikes’ potent 5.30 YpC rushing attack was held to just 4.06. Minnesota passed for 6.37 YpA, just 3% off their usual pace, but were intercepted 4 times, sacked 5 times, and were fortunate to only lose 1 of their 4 fumbles.

In 2005, things were different. Linehan’s Dolphins were the median offense in the NFL, while Fox’s Panther defense was almost identical to his 2002 unit. They were ranked 5th, allowing an average of 16.2 PpG, 5.79 YpA and 3.59 YpC. Semi-miraculously, the Dolphins actually scored 36% better than average, not at all what you’d expect from the 16th-ranked offense meeting the 5th-ranked defense. In that game, the Panthers slowed the Fins passing attack by 13%, but Ronnie Brown had a field day, boosting the Dolphins rushing effectivness by 30% to 4.80 YpC. Worth noting: Fins QB Gus Frerotte had only one pick, and there  were no sacks or fumbles.

In 2006, it was back to the same old story. Linehan’s Rams were the 10th-ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 22.9 points per game. Fox’s Panthers were again a top ten unit, ranked 8th and allowing 19.1 PpG. The Panthers stone cold shut out the Rams, allowing zero points, a meager 4.17 YpA, and 3.75 YpC. The Rams had one pick, one fumble lost, and were sacked seven times for –62 yards.

We see a pattern emerge: when a Scott Linehan offense surrenders sacks and turnovers to a John Fox, scoring is ridiculously and wildly depressed, as well as offensive efficiency. When the offensive line is able to control the line of scrimmage, Linehan offenses are disproportionately successful at scoring, and possibly running the ball.

This year’s Broncos are nothing like the vaunted Panthers defenses of the 2000s. Ranked 29th in the NFL, they’re allowing 25.8 PpG , 7.43 YpA,  and 3.75 YpC. The rushing defense is solid, but they’re being victimized through the air and allowing points in bunches. The Lions, technically, are the 6th-best offense in the NFL, averaging 27.7 points per game, 7.19 YpA, and 4.08 YpC.

In theory, the Lions have a massive advantage here. They should be able to complete passes and move the ball against a hapless Broncos pass defense. They should be able to make hay with Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams in the space this opens up. The Lions should score 30-34 points, averaging 8.50-9.0 YpA and 4.00-4.25 YpC, and so I will project them to, but at this point I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection, despite having plenty of data.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Well, there are plenty of these. Matthew Stafford will likely play, but will he play well? Will the Lions offense play like an average of all the games they’ve played to date, or like an average of the last two weeks? Will they control the line of scrimmage, deny sacks, and run the ball effectively, or have Stafford on the run again? In fact, what the Lions should score is almost assuredly what they will not; they’re more likely to do much better or worse than to meet expectations square on the nose.

Conclusion

Well, uh. The averages and stuff project a 33-17 Lions win.

Given that the Lions offensive starters have more talent than the Broncos 53-man roster put together, I’m not sure why I feel so bad about signing my name to that projection. Maybe it’s because I said almost the same score last week and was brutally disappointed. However, Denver is not Atlanta—not even close. And I have to believe the Lions defense will feast on Tebow and the Broncos offense, giving Stafford many bites at the apple. Worst-case scenario, the D should have some chances to take matters into their own hands, as they did against Minnesota and Dallas.

Those of you who've been reading a while already know my final word; I wouldn't have deployed the bold if I didn't mean it. 33-17, Lions.

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