Three Cups Deep: Week 6, Lions at Eagles

Victory.

It was neither easy nor pretty. It did not answer questions or inspire confidence. It was much, much, much, much more exciting than it needed to be. But the Detroit Lions went into The Linc with their season on the line and came out victors.

The defensive line won this game. PFF credits the Lions with 3 sacks, 10 QB Hits, and 15 QB Hurries.

Kyle Vanden Bosch had his best game in ages. Avril had two sacks, including one in overtime that essentially won the game. Suh and Fairley were stout inside, especially against the run; LeSean McCoy was held to a laughable 1.57 YpC on 14 attempts. Suh and Fairley also each had a batted pass; Suh’s likely preventing a game-winning TD for the Eagles. LoJack got two hits and two hurries in just 18 pass rush attempts.

The return of Louis Delmas had a big impact, though he gave back his interception with an Eagles touchdown off his blown assignment. Despite a mix of solid play and obvious rust in coverage, Delmas made a huge impact in the run game. He had 9 solo tackles (and 4 stops) with just 2 misses.

The Eagles have been a thorn in the Lions' paw as long as I can remember. Until Sunday, the Lions hadn't beaten the Eagles since 1986; I was five years old. Of course, there was the 1995 first-round playoff rout that ended the Lions' incredible seven-game win streak. Those Lions started 2-5, ran to 10-6, then ran a bunch of smack before facing the Eagles in the first round and were down 51-7 by the middle of the third quarter.

Somehow, the 2008 game was even worse: the Eagles beat the Lions 56-21, an even bigger margin of defeat than the 1995 debacling. I have never, ever felt more helpless watching a football game.

The Eagles offensive dominated the Lions front seven in a way I've never seen before or since. Shaun Rogers and Cory Redding were being driven five yards off the ball even when the Eagles were pass protecting. Brian Westbrook ran for 110 yards on just 14 carries (7.86 YpC!). Donovan McNabb completed 21-of-26 for 381 yards (14.65 YpA!!). Worst of all, receiver Kevin Curtis—who averaged 412 yards per season in his 8-year career—racked up 211 yards and 3 touchdowns on 11 catches.

Sunday, the script was flipped: the Lions dominated in the trenches, on both sides of the ball. The result was never going to be similar domination; 2012 Eagles have as much talent as any team in the NFL and the 2007 Lions would go 0-16 the next season. But the opportunities were there for this game to be a much bigger win.

The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jeff MacLane on the Eagles' performance against the Lions:

The same excuses were there following the game, but there didn’t seem to be as much passion behind the Eagles defensive line’s claims that they’re not getting sacks because opposing offenses are max protecting and quarterbacks are making quick throws.

The extra blockers and chip blockers were there on occasion, but Matthew Stafford was taking plenty of chances downfield. The line had its chances to pressure the Lions quarterback. It just didn’t get there. It was dominated by Detroit’s unspectacular, yet workmanlike, offensive line. The Lions’ defensive line, meanwhile, manhandled the Eagles’ o-line. You could see how they were physically superior...

...right guard Danny Watkins struggled against Suh and Nick Fairley. Both Lions crushed Vick after Watkins made very poor blocking attempts. In the first quarter, Suh penetrated and knocked the quarterback to the ground. In the third, Vick threw a short slant but was clobbered by Fairley after he released the ball. The Lions rushed only four but Watkins did little to impede the second-year defensive tackle’s path. The second-year guard wasn’t much better as a run blocker. In the fourth quarter, Fairley blew by Watkins and tackled McCoy for a four-yard loss.

So yeah. How about those other opportunities?

This offense is simply not in sync. Defenses are taking away the easy option—Calvin Johnson—and forcing Stafford to beat them with trickier, intermediate stuff. Titus Young hasn’t been reliably getting open—and, as we saw with that dropped bomb, isn’t as reliable as Johnson and Nate Burleson. Brandon Pettigrew, as a surehanded safety valve, has regressed. And even when everything’s working, Stafford has occasionally misfired like he never seemed to last season.

Stafford made some amazing throws on Sunday, but he also missed some easy stuff. That wouldn’t be an issue if it weren’t for the way his targets are failing him. PFF credits him with 42 “aimed” passes (not spikes or throwaways), and just 22 completions (52.4%). Stafford threw for 311 yards (6.91 raw YpA), a touchdown, and one armpunt of an INT—a case of Calvin stumbling trying to get from from airtight double-coverage, but still.

That throw, as I said on Twitter and in the Fireside Chat, is an example of why I've always railed against the "just throw it up to Calvin" offense that so many Lions fans push for: it simply doesn't win football games. It's great for fantasy owners, but it's awful for consistently scoring points against NFL defenses. Throwing a long ball up to a guy with a defender down both the front and rear of his pants is not a strategy, it's a prayer. There's a time for those, and it's not during a hard-fought, close-scored, crucial road game.

These kinds of throws are part of Stafford's football DNA. Check out Trae Thompson's outstanding SB Nation piece on Stafford, "The Making of a Quarterback." He's been beating teams with prayers like that since middle school.

The Lions need Stafford to have that confidence, that swagger. But it's one thing to read a defense, see weakness and know your guy's going to be able to make a play; it's another thing to read a defense, see they're trying to stop your guy at any cost, and lob it up there anyway because they're stopping everything else and you're out of ideas.

This is part of Stafford's maturation, part of his growth process, part of his evolution into a quarterback who can stand atop Mount Quarterbackmore with Brees and Brady and Manning and Elway and Montana and Unitas. He shouldn't have made that throw, and he should have found a way to get it into the end zone when he had three tries from no distance in the fourth quarter.

Flip those two outcomes, and this a somewhat comfortable win instead of another amazing comeback. Flip those two outcomes, and the story is how a bruising defense and punishing Lions running attack (128 yards on 28 carries! 4.23 YpC!) led the Lions to an inexorable, inevitable win borne of pure physical domination.

That's the challenge for Monday Night: eliminate that pick, make that touchdown happen.

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Fireside Chat Week 6: Lions at Eagles

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In Praise of the Wide Nine, Lions D-Line, & Back Seven

Back when Nick Fairley suddenly showed up to training camp in a walking boot, I wrote a piece called “Nick Injured? It’s Fairley Insignificant.” In it I said not to PANIC:

The Lions’ defensive line must keep rolling waves, so they’ll need Fairley back—but not the way they needed Ndamukong Suh last season. Suh played a thousand snaps, nearly every single down the defense was on the field last season. Fairley was never going to carry that big of a load even if he showed up to camp in the best shape of his life, dominated every rep, and didn’t suffer so much as a paper cut. He’s an extremely talented player and he seems like a nice, fun-loving guy—but he doesn’t need to be an All-Pro for the Lions to have a good defense this year.

After five games, the Lions’ defense is fourth-best in the NFL, allowing just 17.8 points per game. The talent, skill, and depth of the defensive line has allowed the Lions to contain the run and snuff out the pass. They have 12 sacks, tied for 11th-best in the league—with  nearly zero blitzing. The Lions’ Pro Football Focus team Pass Rush grade is +18.9, fifth-best. Clearly, the line has been fine with or without the #13 overall pick.

Early  during the Monday Night game, Commenter Matt nudged me and said, “Dude, Fairley’s in.” I looked and saw that indeed, #98 was out there, rotating in for a snap or two. It continued throughout the night; Fairley seamlessly blended with Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams and Sammie Hill and Andre Fluellen.

Fairley got great penetration, fought off blocks, got in on some piles, and per Pro Football Focus had three quarterback pressures. He received a +2.4 overall PFF grade (+1.0 run defense, +1.3 pass rush, +0.1 penalty), amazing work for an 18-snap workload. The impact wasn’t seen but it was felt, as the Lions defensive line constantly rotated players in and out, staying fresh and keeping the pressure at a rolling boil for sixty minutes.

As I'm sure you saw earlier in the week, ESPN Stats & Information found that Cutler was under duress for 42.1% of his throws Monday Night, the highest for any single quarterback in any single game so far this year. Cutler performed incredibly well considering the pressure; any other quarterback might have gone down seven or eight times—or at least, thrown a lot more incompletions or interceptions.

But it’s more than just the defensive line.

Philadelphia fans and media alike are screaming for the Eagles to scrap the “wide nine,” a defensive system wherein the blindside pass-rushing defensive end lines up far outside their opposing offensive tackle, and the rest of the line shifts around to obtain maximum penetration and pass rush without blitzing. Adam Caplan of Scout.com explains:

Does all this sound familiar? It should, because it’s the exact same system the Lions use.

There’s a problem inherent in widening out that defensive line, then coaching them to aggressively penetrate. Trap blocks, counters, and end-arounds become extremely effective. Teams intent on running the ball will succeed. In a recent Detroit News article, Jim Schwartz explained how the Lions deal with this:

"We're vulnerable to trap blocks," Schwartz said. "You tell guys to get up field and rush the passer, they're going to be susceptible to the trap. But our linebackers are expected to play that. We don't want our guys slowing down and playing traps. Suh is an instinctive guy. He's seen those things before. If we are getting off the line the way we are supposed to, our linebackers should fill those (gaps) up."

Stephen Tulloch, Justin Durant, DeAndre Levy, and Bobby Carpenter have combined to do just that. Though opposing running backs are shredding the Lions’ defensive line for 4.78 YpC, the Lions have allowed only one rushing touchdown. Opposing running backs are getting through t the second level, but no further.

On the passing side of the ball, the Lions are one of the best defenses in the NFL. According to one of my favorite pass-defense metrics, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, the Lions’ pass defense is tied with the New York Jets for second-best in the NFL. Pro Football Focus grades the Lions pass rush fifth,  and pass coverage No. 1.

In Detroit, the “wide nine” system is working perfectly. The strength, speed, depth and alignment of the Lions’ defensive line is putting heat on quarterbacks with almost no blitzing. The burden of stopping the run is almost entirely on the linebackers’ shoulders—and they’re getting the job done. The Eagles’ linebackers aren’t, and Nnamdi Asomugha is having to explain to reporters that contrary to appearances they do know how to tackle.

The back seven is also working in concert to take away quarterbacks’ safety blankets underneath, prevent being burned deep, jumping the medium routes to pick passes off and get the ball back to the offense. Where the Eagles gazillion-dollar “dream team” secondary is getting gashed on the ground and through the air, the Lions hand-picked cast of role players and reclamation projects is the best back seven in the NFL.

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Fireside Chat: Michael Vick Rant Edition

After last Sunday’s loss, the Vick Love Parade went right by my house, and the noise drove me crazy.  Thanks to a nasty head cold, I couldn’t get my two cents into the mic on Sunday night.  Tuesday night, I tried to broadcast live, but Ustream went down unannounced and I couldn’t.  Finally, despite being out and about, I got a few minutes to lay my thoughts down . . . and so I did.  The RSS and iTunes feed is updated; I’m still trying to force-feed this thing to Ustream.  Anyway.  Enjoy the Michael Vick Rant episode of the Fireside Chat Podcast.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,philadelphia eagles,michael vick,podcast

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Watchtower Review: Lions vs. Eagles

In the Watchtower for the Eagles game, I wasn’t starting with an entirely clean sheet.  Last season, the Lions faced a longtime  Andy Reid disciple, Rams OC Pat Shurmur.  I analyzed Reid’s performances against Gunther Cunningham, and concluded:

Given how loosely connected these two data points are to Pat Shurmur, and how wildly they vary between each other, I cannot draw a firm conclusion, other than Reid/Shurmur Walsh-style offenses run the football well below expectations when facing a Schwartz/Cunningham aggressive 4-3.

. . . Therefore, given no talent advantage for either side, and only a very questionable systemic advantage for Cunningham defenses against the running game of Reid/Shurmur offenses, I expect the Rams' output will meet expectations.

I took this non-conclusion conclusion and applied it to Sunday’s game: the Eagles will meet expectations.  Of course, this is the first season in over a decade where the Eagles’ offense wasn’t a known quantity—and then the Vick thing happened.  What I said was:

Given all the unknowns about the Eagles' offense, and tentatively mixing the Lions’ defensive performance on Sunday with preseason expectations and eyeball guesstimation, I project the Eagles’s offense to meet expectations on Sunday. They should score slightly more than my projection of their average for 2010: 24-27 points. I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection. According to my prior research, it is possible that the running game will be depressed—but with Vick likely to run well and often, the Eagles’ final team rushing numbers probably won’t look bad at all.

Vick only rushed 8 times for 37 yards.  His running kept plays alive long enough to repeatedly burn the secondary, but his actual on-the-ground yardage was insignificant.  What was significant was LeSean McCoy’s 120 yards on only 16 attempts.  Though that total is bolstered by a 45-yard long gainer, he was still running at a 6.3 YpC clip without it.  It seems as though the commitment to bottle up Vick was so complete, the Lions essentially surrendered the non-Vick run.

Of course, the Eagles outstripped my scoring prediction by 7-10 points.  It’s undeniable that the Lions blitzed early and often, even more than they normally do.  This approach worked beautifully to keep the heat on Vick; Vick required all of his oh-so-amazing skills to be sacked only six times.  However, the secondary couldn’t keep a clamp on receivers, and Vick, repeatedly, was able to find an open man in desperation.  The 284 passing yards came at a ridiculous 13.52 YpA clip.  Combined with the 7.5 YpC average of McCoy, and no turnovers, the six sacks were the only thing keeping the scoring under 50!

Given a strong systemic [dis]advantage, and a presumable talent [dis]advantage, I project the Lions’ offense to perform below expectations.  Even giving the Lions credit for the erroneously discounted touchdown in their projected season scoring average, the Lions should score 13-17 points.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

I was very, very, very happy to be wrong on this one.  Jahvid Best’s monster performance was the antidote to the aggressive Eagles blitzing, and the Lions’ offensive line physically pushed around the smaller, faster Eagles’ defense.

You have no idea how blissfully I typed that last bit.

I'm going to type it again: The Lions' offensive line physically pushed around the Eagles' defense.  Ah, that felt wonderful.  Er, yes.   Ahem.  Anyway, the final prediction:

The most likely outcome of this game is a “closer than the scoreboard shows” loss by the Lions, with a tense back-and-forth ultimately giving way to a 14-24 final score.

What was odd was, at the end of the third quarter, my prediction was exactly right.  It had been a close back-and-forth game that had seen a Lions lead be eclipsed, 21-17, right before halftime.  After another quarter, the score was 28-17 (just what I’d predicted!), and it looked like the Eagles would calmly salt it away.  They tried to do just that, taking half a quarter to score the would-be dagger.  But the Lions suddenly poured it on, scoring 14 points in the next 3:15.  Recovering the onside kick, the Lions had field position, time on the clock, and a host of offensive weapons.  All that stood between them and victory was . . . oh yeah.  Being the Lions.

Derp, derp, derp, derp.  Game over.

The Eagles must have let off the gas a little bit after they went up 35-17—which, of course, is understandable.  Just like the Chicago game though, once the Lions had a little bit of breathing room they became very, very dangerous.  It’s going to be difficult to project the Lions’ scoring for the next few games, because I won’t be sure which Lions team will show up—nor do I really know how much the play of Shaun Hill is depressing the offense’s output.  But, for now, I clearly have to revise expectations upward, especially for Jahvid Best.  That, at least, is welcome news.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,philadelphia eagles,michael vick,jahvid best

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Three Cups Deep: late Night TEA

I usually write Three Cups Deep on Monday morning, while I draw strength from the taste, smell, and heat of my morning coffee.  I usually record the Fireside Chat podcast on Sunday night, with a live audience listening in via Ustream.  However, I’m fighting a nasty head cold; I can guarantee you don’t want my voice piped into your ears right now!  So, I’m writing this while sipping late-night tea, instead of early-morning coffee.

Today (Sunday) was my daughter’s sixth birthday; there’s a lifetime worth of blog posts about what that means to me.  But six years ago, to the day, in Week 2 of the 2004 season, at halftime of a Lions victory, my daughter was born.  Between that mojo, and the amazing vibe of the incredible Michigan State victory the night before, I held on to a crazy belief that victory was not only possible, but cosmically preordained.  It would be so great, be so beautiful, make so much sense—of course it would have to happen.  It would make no sense to not happen?

It’s the kind of crazy thinking a fan does—but when the Lions went up 17-7, I really began to believe.  I got the hope, the tingle; the all-over buzz and swimmy insides.  Even when the Eagles got the lead back right before halftime, I still figured it was within reach.  But then it started slipping away; when the Eagles made it 35-17, I turned my attention to preparations for my daughter’s birthday party.  The improbable, magical victory I’d felt in my bones had turned into the same old miserable story I’d seen played out over and over and over again for the last decade.

Then, for the second time in two games, this Lions team ripped up that God-forsaken script.  The Eagles, thinking they’d had the game won, let up a little bit—and the Lions pounced, scoring twice in two minutes.  With a successful onside kick, they started what might have been a third scoring drive, possibly the game-winning scoring drive.  But, as you know, that drive never drove; a four-and-out set up the most aggravating ending since The Rules of Attraction.

I was an confounding mix of pleased and pissed, surprised and not at all, satisfied and aching for just a little more.  In a game that everyone marked an “L” the moment the schedule was released, coming away with a three-point loss feels like an achievement.  And yet, losing the home opener when the Lions had a 17-7 lead in the second quarter feels like a disaster.  As Killer wrote on Mlive.com, that’s exactly how Kyle Vanden Bosch feels:

"We could've put them away early. When we get in the lead and have the momentum, we've got to finish. We have to keep our foot on the throttle. And then, in the end, we have to find a way to win it."

While I was simmering in this sweet and sour sauce, my wife put it into perspective for me.  She said, “You can tell it’s working.  This isn’t the same team that lost sixteen games; it’s not even the same team that lost fourteen games.  You can see it: this team is different.”  Of course, she’s right.  It’s hard to be satisfied with another moral victory when a real one was so achingly close for the second week in a row.  But with all the obstacles facing the Lions—no Matthew Stafford, no DeAndre Levy, a hampered Louis Delmas—they’re still clearly a competitive team, a real team.  The Lions are a  team that can’t be written off by any opponent at any time, and that is satisfying indeed.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,philadelphia eagles

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The Watchtower: Lions vs. Eagles

Both the Lions and the Eagles are coming off of excruciating fourth-quarter losses where their starting quarterback was lost, indefinitely, to injury.  Both teams desperately need a win to keep their season from going far off-track.  The Lions fell short of winning one of the very few winnable games in their early schedule; if  they don’t get a win this week they’ll be looking hard at 0-4.  If the Eagles open the season with consecutive losses, climbing out of the brutal NFC East and into the playoffs will be a tall task indeed.  Lions fans will show up 65,000 strong, hoping against hope that their team can beat a perennial winner.  At least that many Eagles fans will be waiting at the airport chanting for Andy Reid’s head, if their team drops one to a perennial loser.

Andy Reid vs. Gunther Cunningham

Reid	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Fum	Sack
PHI	TEN	4th	25.9	6.18	4.54	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	24	5.89	2	3.64	1-1	6-31
PHI	KCC	18th	19.4	5.93	3.92	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	31	7.69	1	1.65	3-1	1-1

I broke down these numbers last season when the Lions faced the Rams, and their new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur.  Shurmur is a Reid disciple, and attempted to run Reid’s offense last season with St. Louis’ talent.  It didn’t work well; the Rams were the worst offense in the NFL.  They averaged only 10.9 points per game.  Still, the Xs-and-Os were the same, and so into the numbers I delved.  The conclusion:

Given how loosely connected these two data points are to Pat Shurmur, and how wildly they vary between each other, I cannot draw a firm conclusion, other than Reid/Shurmur Walsh-style offenses run the football well below expectations when facing a Schwartz/Cunningham aggressive 4-3.

. . . Therefore, given no talent advantage for either side, and only a very questionable systemic advantage for Cunningham defenses against the running game of Reid/Shurmur offenses, I expect the Rams' output will meet expectations. This means they should outpace their season averages: I project 10-13 points, 5.60-5.80 YpA, and 4.5-4.75 YpA. I have medium-low confidence in this projection.

Well, Andy Reid never had Steven Jackson against the Lions' run defense; the Rams trucked it for a whopping 5.77 YpC that day.  However, they scored 17 points, and netted an average of 5.89 yards per pass attempt; rather close to my projection.  I often use the master as a guideline for the student, but Pat Shurmur calling plays for The Worst Offense Ever Plus Steven Jackson doesn’t help us model the 2010 Eagles at all, so I can’t include those numbers for this projection.  I’ll continue to presume that the Reid offense essentially meets expectations against Cunningham/Schwartz defenses.

But, what are expectations for the Reid offense this year?  The switch from Donovan McNabb to Kevin Kolb threw a monkey wrench into one of the most stable units in football; a perennial top-ten offense was going to get a new signal caller for the first time in over a decade.  Even if Kolb performs at Donovan McNabb replacement level this year, Kolb won’t take Ford Field on Sunday, Michael Vick will.  The threat Michael Vick’s game represents to the Lions defense was brilliantly broken down by Michael Schottey at Bleacher Report:

Vick loves to run up the middle of the field as the pocket is collapsing, picking his way through and leaving jock-less linebackers in his wake.

The Lions defense invites that kind of up-the-middle scrambles with their defensive front alignment. The Lions defense eschews the normal 1-3-5-7 gap scheme and widens out their defensive ends creating (usually) a 1-3-7-9 look.

Even if Vick is perfectly suited to defeat this Fisher/Schwartz/Cunningham defense, though, the Eagles won’t necessarily be more difficult for the Lions to beat with Vick at the helm.  Vick is an inconsistent decision-maker, and has never been an accurate downfield passer.  We’ve seen so little of what Kolb and Vick can do that we don’t have any baseline for the 2010 Eagles’ offensive power.  Either way, it’s safe to assume that the Eagles will be less proficient than last season’s fifth-best 26.8 PpG, though not dramatically less.  Given their 20-point performance against a presumed-good Packers D, let’s peg the Eagles’ potential norm for 2010 23.0 PpG. 

Just how good is the Lions’ defense?  Well, they allowed a whole lot of yards against the Bears’ offense last week—but only 19 points.  With a tiny one-week sample size, the Lions currently sit at 9th place in team defense, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA stat.  I don’t think this is an above-average defense, and the timely turnovers that kept dropping into the Lions’ lap won’t keep dropping all season long.  I project the Lions to be a mediocre scoring defense, hovering around 20-22nd best, allowing about 21 PpG. 

Given all the unknowns about the Eagles' offense, and tentatively mixing the Lions’ defensive performance on Sunday with preseason expectations and eyeball guesstimation, I project the Eagles’s offense to meet expectations on Sunday.  They should score slightly more than my projection of their average for 2010: 24-27 points.  I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection.  According to my prior research, it is possible that the running game will be depressed—but with Vick likely to run well and often, the Eagles’ final team rushing numbers probably won’t look bad at all.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Obviously, Michael Vick is a walking, talking wild card, and his effect on the Lions defense may well be Kryptonitesque.  Vick could run wild, drawing the safeties up—and DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin will be free to traumatize the Lions’ secondary.  However, Vick also has a history of following a good game with a terrible one—and his “terrible” games are often turnover-laden, drive-killing-mistake-filled affairs.  If Vick stops the Eagles’ offense for the Lions, the Eagles could have a long day ahead of them.  Also, Vick was brought off the bench in surprise Week 1, and provided a spark—but this will be his first start since Leavenworth.  Will a full week to prepare for Vick, Gunther and The Grandmaster may well come up with something to slow #7 down.  Indeed, Gunther says such efforts are well underway:

"He's not just a quarterback, he's a runner. So the game changes and your preparation is different. You stay up late at night and you get up early in the morning. If you look at our coaching staff, they all look like zombies today."

Scott Linehan vs. Eagles Defense

Lin	JJ	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Fum	Sack
MIN	PHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	2nd	16.2	5.84	4.31	16	7.30	1	4.11	3-1	4-11
MIN	PHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	2nd	16.2	5.84	4.31	14	6.72	2	4.62	1-0	3-28
STL	PHI	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	6th	18.1	5.55	3.51	3	6.08	0	2.40	1-0	4-28

The Eagles’ defensive coordinator’s name is Sean McDermott, but he has inherited one of the richest legacies in the NFL: the late, great, Jim Johnson’s defense.  Johnson ran a one-gap, blitz-heavy 4-3, and the Eagles’ creative assaults on the quarterback became their calling card for a decade.  For more reading material, check out Sports Illustrated’s Tim Layden’s brilliant breakdown of Johnson’s double A gap blitz.  The system McDermott runs now is nearly identical to the one Johnson ran; comparison is definitely valid. 

In 2004, Scott Linehan’s Vikings faced Johnson’s Eagles twice—as always, an ideal set of circumstances for comparison, since you get two results from the same talent matchup.  Of course, the Vikings were ranked 6th in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 25.3 points per game.  They were extremely balanced, netting 7.16 YpA and 4.71 YpC.  Meanwhile, the Eagles were the second-best scoring defense in the NFL; they allowed only 16.2 points per game, 5.84 YpA, and 4.31 YpC.  As you can see, their pass defense was much more stout than their run defense—but as Ron Jaworksi will repeatedly tell you, points come out of the passing game.

In the first contest, the Vikings scored only 16 points—far below their season average, and exactly matching the Eagles’ season average.  This means that the 6th-best offense in the NFL played just like an average victim of the Eagles’ fearsome 2004 defense.  Interestingly, the Vikes’ per-play passing effectiveness wasn’t affected.  My theory on the scoring depression is that the interception, lost fumble, and four sacks had something to do with the depressed scoring output—that, and the running game’s effectiveness being dropped by half a yard.

In the second contest, the results were nearly identical: only 14 points scored by the Vikings.  This time, the passing game was depressed by half a yard per play while the running game met expectations; I chalk this up to what I call the “Whack-a-Mole Effect”.  Either way, the vaunted Vikings offense was bottled up again.  No lost fumbles this time, but two picks, and three sacks for –28 yards, contributed to the profound lack of points.

As the final data point, we have the 2008 Rams.  Their wretched, 30th-ranked unit got Linehan fired—and they went up against the Eagles’ typically sixth-ranked defense.  Between the Rams’ average of 14.5 points scored, and the Eagles’ average of 18.1 points allowed, the final result was a pathetic three points, and even that was on a last-quarter field goal in a game that was long since over.

The inescapable conclusion is that given equal or better talent, Jim Johnson’s hyperaggressive one-gap 4-3 defense disproportionately disrupts Scott Linehan’s balanced, conventional offense.  Scoring is typically depressed, partially via increased sacks and interceptions.  Typically, one dimension of the offense is dramatically less effective than season norms.

Given a strong systemic advantage, and a presumable talent advantage, I project the Lions’ offense to perform below expectations.  Even giving the Lions credit for the erroneously discounted touchdown in their projected season scoring average, the Lions should score 13-17 points.  I have medium confidence in this projection.  If we’re calling 14 the baseline for this season, this is a single-digit number, but I don’t believe that’s the correct performance level for this offense.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Any time you subtract Matthew Stafford from this offense, you’re subtracting an awful lot of scoring potential.  If Shaun Hill can step up, and Jahvid Best can find his groove in the lanes not being blitzed through, maybe the Lions can muddle along and meet expectations.  Or, you know, the lack of Stafford will allow the Eagles to go crazy with the blitzes, and it’s even worse than it looks like it’ll be.  One ray of hope: the Eagles may be without starting middle linebacker Stewart Bradley.

Conclusion:

As much as I desperately want to find a reason to hope, as much as I’d like to have found proof that the Eagles are vulnerable, I’ve found nearly the opposite.  The offense, which we know will be handcuffed without Stafford, is at both a systemic and talent disadvantage.  Even if the defense can bottle up Vick—or if Vick hands the game to the Lions on a turnover platter—the offense will be lucky to score more than twice.  The most likely outcome of this game is a “closer than the scoreboard shows” loss by the Lions, with a tense back-and-forth ultimately giving way to a 14-24 final score.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,philadelphia eagles,matthew stafford,michael vick,stewart bradley,kevin kolb

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Mlive.com Highlight Reel Post: “Looking Ahead: The Philadelphia Eagles”

The second installment of my Lions’ opponent breakdown is up over at the Mlive.com Detroit Lions blog, the  Highlight Reel.  In it, I break down the Philadelphia Eagles, the changes they made over the offseason, and how they match up against the Lions.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,philadelphia eagles,donovan mcnabb,kevin kolb

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Ernie Sims to the Eagles, Tony Scheffler to the Lions

While I was grabbing some lunch, news broke: Martin Mayhew had looked in the Wheeler Dealer and pulled himself off another swap—this time, trading Ernie Sims to the Eagles, a 5th-rounder from the Eagles to the Broncos, and TE Tony Scheffler from the Broncos to the Lions.  The Lions also got yet another seventh-round pick, bringing the total up to four.

I haven’t been shy about reminding everyone that way back in January, I wrote an article for Mlive.com, proclaiming that Martin Mayhew must trade Sims while he still has value.  My first proposed trade destination was Philadelphia, and I bugged poor Adam Caplan from Scout.com about that idea for weeks, because the fit just made too much sense.  I’ve also been obnoxious in pointing out that I pointed out that the retirement of Casey FitzSimmons left an empty niche in the Lions’ offense.

My apologies to all of you for the insufferable self-promoting.  I have no access to “insider” info; everything you read is coming from my own synthesis of what’s out there.  When I stumble upon an acorn, as I rarely do, I enjoy planting it, watching it grow into a mighty oak, then hanging my hat upon it.  My apologies if I've annoyed you; I rarely indulge in such own-horn-tooting, and I’m done now.

First impressions?  This is practically identical to the Cory Redding-for-Julian Peterson trade.  These two players, Sims and Scheffler, both had a foot out the door in their original cities.  Neither were fits for their current systems, both had plenty of good football years left, and both are entering a contract year.

For me, it's a bittersweet goodbye to Sims.  Check out my post from roughly this time last year, featuring a battered alt-color Ernie Sims jersey and dangerous levels of optimism:

Ernie Sims is primed to be an incredible force in 2009.

Coming out of Florida State, I really thought that Sims would be what I later thought Aaron Curry could be: the explosive, badass linebacker who turns around the defense and the team.  That the Lions would draft a chiseled little wrecking ball of an OLB, more noteworthy for his performance on tape than his freakish size or speed?  Surely, I figured, it must be a harbinger of glory!

Prior to last season, I thought the Lions’ new scheme, and all of its OLB blitzing, would allow Sims to shut his brain off and unleash his inner Kraken.  Unfortunately, the Lions’ defensive line wasn’t disruptive enough to allow Sims to safely ignore his lanes—and double-unfortunately, Sims shut his brain off anyway.

He still has all the talent to be a surpassing WLB if used properly.  Philly’s hyperaggressive 4-3 is exactly the right kind of system, and it’s a lot closer to being fully realized than the Lions’ own implementation of a similar system.  I wish Sims all the best, of course; I’m “glad” I never sank the cash into that jersey, but I’m sad I never repped him while he was here.  For a little while, he was the only player really worth cheering for.

Tony Scheffler, for his part, is like Casey FitzSimmons, only up an order of magnitude.  Midwestern football state?  Instead of Montana, Michigan.  Instead of Caroll College, Western Michigan.  Instead of an undrafted free agent, a 2nd-round pick.  Instead of a 23-catch, 160-yard, 2-TD rookie season, an 18-catch, 286-yard, 4-TD rookie season.  Instead of a six more years that barely matched his rookie totals combined, three more years where he’s averaged double the catches and yards over that initial effort.

Scheffler really doesn't have much place in Denver's offense, and he had little-to-no chemistry with efficient-but-weak-armed Kyle Orton.  Now, he’ll again play with the kind of rocket-armed quarterback who threw him 107 passes, for 1,480 yards & 12 TDs, in his first three NFL seasons.

Many are pointing to this trade as proof that Brandon Pettigrew’s recovery is going poorly, but I see them as completely different players.  Pettigrew is a third tackle with cotton hands; a powerful inline blocker who’s quick enough to get open and make a crucial third-down catch.  However, he’s not a field-stretcher, a walking mismatch like Gates or Clark.  He’s not going to blow past an OLB  on a skinny post, catch it in stride, smoke both safeties and take it to the house; that’s just not his skill set.

With Fitz gone, the Lions had four blocking TEs, with a spectrum of hands from “great” to “nonexistent”.  Scheffler gives them that dangerous 2-TE combination that Linehan loves: he can again use a 2-WR, 2-TE, I-formation set as a base for five-option pass plays.  It’s all about establishing the power running game, and then killing them through the air . . . and, Pettigrew or no, Tony Scheffler gives them that ability.

The best part of all of it, though, is what the Michigan native, Scheffler, told the Denver Post when they called him:

“Restore the Roar!”

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,denver broncos,tony scheffler,ernie sims,philadelphia eagles

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