History Lessons: Aaron Curry & 3rd Preseason Games

I’ve rarely called out the leaders of the Detroit Lions. Neither the coaches nor executives receive much criticism on this blog. For starters, The Lions in Winter exists partly as a haven from brain-dead “fire the lousy bums” talk. For seconds, the Lions’ leadership hasn’t done much to deserve criticism. When they have, I’ve been quick to say so—publicly and privately.

The other reason is, the closer I get to the business of football and football media, the more I realize just how far removed fans are from the reality of the game. I have to be awfully sure that I, professional IT nerd, armed with nothing but my HDTV and DVR and iPhone and Mac Pro, know better than the men paid millions of dollars to run this team with every conceivable resource at their fingertips for me to speak out. Every once in a while, though, I’m convinced I’m right—and I do something silly like write an open letter to the Lions’ brass, demanding that they draft Aaron Curry:

Not long ago, the Lions' players were well known for being great leaders in the community, providers who put down roots in Detroit, and gave back to the city as much as the city had given them.  As you know, Robert Porcher won the NFL's Walter Payton Man of the Year award multiple times; [Ed.- Actually, he didn't.] Aaron Curry will surely follow in his footsteps.  Look out the window, gentlemen; read the papers on days when they can afford to be printed.  On the heels of the news that Michigan again leads the nation in joblessness, it would speak volumes about the class, the character, and the priorities of the Detroit Lions organization to ignore the hype.  To ignore the pundits and the shellacked talking heads.  To ignore the common wisdom and the conventional thinking.  To forget value charts and stopwatches, "big boards" and salary slots.  To yoke your franchise to the shoulders of a bold young man who will help Lions fans to their feet, on the field and off, again and again and again.  To restore pride to the Lions.

To draft Aaron Curry.

Aaron Curry has just restructured his contract, lopping the last two years and five million guaranteed dollars off of it. Suddenly, this year becomes a make-or-break; if he doesn’t perform up to his incredible potential the ‘Hawks may trade or release him without a cap hit. Even if they don’t deal him in this next offseason, he’ll likely be playing in Seattle to audition for a contract elsewhere.

This doesn’t mean fans are always wrong and the professionals are always right; otherwise Rod Marinelli would still be using his bully pulpit to harangue Detroit media for their ignorance of the invisible. No, the lesson here is to use the past to gain perspective on the present. Not for the first time, we see that a combination of height, weight, and speed doesn’t necessarily translate into an impact player. Not for the first time, we see that 4-3 outside linebackers have to be truly incredible to have a significant impact. Not for the first time, we see that a player’s off-field personality doesn’t necessarily translate to on-field anything.

One of the hardest things to do is temper expectations for this weekend’s game. After a glorious trouncing of the Bengals, and an unpalatably sloppy win over the Browns, facing the Patriots on national TV with both coaching staffs gameplanning and all available starters going at least a half? It’s a legitimate, and very scary, measuring stick. It seems the Lions always a tough out for this matchup, and it almost never goes well.

In 2007, the Colts, fresh off a Super Bowl win, dismantled the Lions 37-10. In 2006 Rod Marinelli flew the Lions into Oakland the day they were supposed to play, to prove they could show up and beat anyone, anywhere, anytime. The about-to-go-2-14 Raiders beat the Lions 21-3. In 2005, the Rams came to town—with the Monday Night Football crew—and punked the Lions 37-13 (after a last-minute garbage time Lions TD). In 2004, the Lions played the Ravens in Baltimore and, predictably, lost.

In 2009, though, the Lions again took on a lesser Colts team and—with some late-game Drew Stanton heroics—won 18-17. Last season, the third game was the Great Lakes Classic, and Matthew Stafford’s excellent performance kickstarted a 35-27 win over the unimpressive Browns. Now, for the first time, Jim Schwartz has followed Mariucci and Marinelli’s precedent and set the preseason bar as high as it will go.

History tells us that preseason wins and losses are meaningless; we need look no further than the 2008 Lions for the most definitive possible proof. However, history also tells us that in the third preseason game, the “eye test” of starters versus starters, starters versus backups, and overall quality is perfectly valid.

Let’s take the lesson history gives us, then. Let’s wipe the slate of the first two games clean. Let’s see what the Lions can bring to bear, and how they handle the onslaught from Boston. Let’s see Matthew Stafford face the blitz, and Ndamukong Suh chase Tom Brady. I’m ready to see just what these Lions are made of. Are you?

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new england patriots,matthew stafford,tom brady,ndamukong suh,preseason

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Suh Has Signed—and The Blue Fire Roars

Late last night, word finally broke on Twitter—sorry, hundreds at the same time, no idea who was first—that the Lions and Ndamukong Suh had agreed to the terms of his first Lions contract (see what I did there?).  During last Sunday’s Fireside Chat, I’d noted, with growing distaste, how quickly Lions fans were beginning to turn on Suh.  Never before had the Lions’ fanbase been so united in their desire for a given player to be the Lions’ first draft pick—and yet, a few days’ worth of not being in camp had people jumping on Twitter and cussing out Ndamukong, and his sister Ngum.

It all got way out of hand.  Neil over at Armchair Linebacker penned a thoughtful piece called “Settle Down,” which I thought did a a nice job of cogently, if profanely, outlining all the reasons why the reactionary attitude was totally out of line:

Then again, the most likely explanation is that Ndamukong Suh is a dude in his early twenties who is going to spend the next decade of his life (if he's lucky) getting the utter shit kicked out of him, being beaten and broken, his body ripped apart and ravaged so that by the time he's 40 he'll barely be able to walk and won't be able to read any of the street signs thanks to all of the concussions. He'll then spend the next thirty or so years of his life (again, if he's lucky) dealing with the hellacious trauma of his chosen career, with mounting medical bills and aches and pains that most of us can't even fathom. Be honest, if someone told you that you were going to be finished at 35 and then were going to spend the rest of your life taking a half hour getting out of bed in the morning because the pain was just too damn much and trying to remember your kids' names and wondering if you would need a wheelchair before your fiftieth birthday, you'd probably press for as much money as you could too. And that's all assuming you'd even be good enough to play for a decade and not for three or four years. These dudes need to get paid and need to get paid quickly.

This is absolutely right: most quality players only get to sign two—or if they’re lucky, a few—of these big, guarantee-laden contracts.  Many never even get past one.  I wonder what Charles Rogers would do now to pocket one more million of that upfront money?

A big Lions fan on Twitter, @AKDW90, asked me “What difference would it be if he gets $40M or $50M?” and I answered “About ten million dollars.”  Frankly, ten million dollars is a lot of dollars, no matter how many dollars you already have.  Moreover, consider this: Ndamukong worked like crazy for five years at Nebraska, through two coaches, and trained like a madman to thoroughly dominate the NFL combine.  Why did he do that?  To be the best he could be—and to get drafted as highly as possible.  He earned his #2 overall draft slot through years and years of his own hard work; why should he throw any of that away and sign for less than he can get?  So he can make a handful of August practices?

Just as I was mentally composing my own "Settle Down" piece, Neil wrote a sequel.  It’s a little more firm in its critique.  As I like to keep it family here on this blog, there’s very little of it I can quote to you—yet, this one sentence might be the most salient:

Look, you know things have gotten out of hand when I am the one trying to be the voice of reason and preaching civility.

Commenter TimT—who I have the utmost respect for—objected to all of this Gonzo fan-on-fan aggression, but I found it cathartic and satisfying.  There’s no room around the the blue bonfire for people who will get on Twitter and viciously flame Ndamukong Suh’s little sister because the big man was four days slow on signing his contract.  Please, people, perspective.  This guy’s going to be the anchor of the Lions’ defense for years to come; is this what you want him to think of Lions fans?

Speaking of the blue bonfire, if there was an antidote to the nastiness of the Lions fans on Twitter, it was the awesomeness of the fans of the rest of the NFL on Twitter.  Raider homer @rnstrong immediately fired off a Tweet for the ages:

SUUUUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! I instantly became a Lions fan the moment they drafted him

You see?  It’s already beginning, people.  Ndamukong Suh is going to be everything I thought Aaron Curry would be: a once-in-a-generation combination of size, speed, ability, and intelligence.  A humble, honest, hardworking young man blessed with a philanthropic spirit.  The savior of the worst defense the NFL has ever seen, and avatar of renaissance for both the Lions, and the City of Detroit.  Today, as Ndamukong Suh practices with his teammates for the first time, the blue bonfire burns as brightly as it has in years.  As the Honolulu Blue flames reach for the August sky, people from all over are rushing to to see the source.  Join us.

We’ve got plenty of cider on ice.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,ndamukong suh,twitter,aaron curry,armchairlinebacker.com

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meet the cubs: the truth

With the exception of Aaron Curry and his immediate relatives, I doubt anyone on this Earth wanted the Lions to draft the linebacker from Wake Forest more than I did.  After weeks of learning about the extraordinary young man, I became hopelessly enamored with the freakishly talented linebacker captaining the Lions’ defense—and his selflessness, humility, and commitment to public service spearheading the economic renaissance of Detroit.  It got so bad that I penned an open letter to Tom Lewand and Martin Mayhew, sent it to them, posted it here, disseminated it to the media, spread it around on forums, did whatever I could to convince anyone I could that Aaron Curry should be the cornerstone of the new Detroit Lions.

Further, while I readily admitted that the Lions’ quarterback situation needed to be addressed, few were as adamant as I that “addressing” the situation should not consist of slapping a pair of $72M handcuffs on one wrist each of the franchise and the fresh-faced Texan.  Matt Stafford had all the earmarks of the classic #1 quarterback bust: high-profile recruit out of high school, big career numbers compiled at a major-conference power—and a dearth of actual achievement while he was there.  He certainly didn’t live up to the outsized BCS-and-Heisman expectations.  On top of all that, he left school as a junior--a classic red flag—and did so, presumably, to avoid being buried in what’s projected to be a tremendous 2010 quarterback draft class. 

There’s no doubt that Stafford possesses all of the classic quarterback virtues: a big frame, a Howitzer of an arm, and a million-dollar aw-shucks grin.  If it were 1969 right now, Matt Stafford would be a mortal lock for the Hall of Fame.  However, the modern NFL quarterback has a different set of qualifications: impeccable decision-making, a quick, compact release, athleticism, leadership—and yes, marketability.  In each of these new post-Bill-Walsh quarterbacking dimensions, Matt Stafford looked like—at best—the #2 signal-caller available.  Especially in the months prior to April, selecting Matthew Stafford with the #1 overall pick seemed like folly on the grandest possible scale.

Nick Cotsonika of the Detroit Free Press just published a big, beautiful two-part article about Stafford’s past, his grounded upbringings in the midst of extreme gentility, his incredible links to Lion Hall of Famers Bobby Layne and Doak Walker, and his legendary high school career in a state where high school football is a religion; re-writing it all here would in fact be folly on the grandest possible scale.

Suffice it to say, Stafford has been the Golden Boy with the incredible frame, arm, skills, temperament, and mojo from as soon as he was old enough to compete with others in contests of physical skill.  From lighting up middle school with his 70-yard arm, to starting as a sophomore at one of Texas’s premier programs and bringing them a state championship, to starting as a freshman in one of the SEC’s premier programs—and holding that chair for three years—Matthew Stafford’s entire life has been building up to this.  So, now that he’s arrived, does he have the tools to succeed?

First, let’s look at his production in college: 

YEAR	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
2006	135	256	1749	52.7	6.83	53	7	13	12	108.99
2007	194	348	2523	55.7	7.25	84	19	10	15	128.92
2008	235	383	3459	61.4	9.03	78	25	10	17	153.54

The first thing that jumps out is something that Stafford fans have pointed to over and over again: his improvement from year to year.  Each season, the number of attempts went up, the completions went up, the yards went up, the yards per attempt went up, the touchdowns went up, the passer rating went up, and the interceptions dropped or held steady.  In each year, Stafford was asked to do more and more of the work, and in each year, he did markedly better.  That’s definitely a great sign.

Looking a little more closely at his final year, we see some very respectable numbers: 61.4 completion percentage, 153.54 passer efficiency rating, 9.03 yards per attempt--all second-best in the SEC (Tebow had an edge in all).  The 3,459 yards and 383 attempts were each far and away the most in the SEC, showing that Stafford represented a far bigger percentage of the Bulldogs’ offense than any of the other quarterbacks did of theirs.  This lends credence to the oft-floated theory that Stafford didn’t have much in the way of a running game to help him out.

In order to judge for ourselves, we of course turn to the oracle which knows and sees all: the internet highlight reel.

These two clips comprise a fairly complete set of highlights for Matt Stafford’s final year of college.  When the Stafford rumors really started to pick up, I sought out as much video as I could find, to “TV scout” Stafford to the best of my ability.  Unfortunately, on first blush, my worst fears were realized.

Many of these “Matt Stafford highlights” are really Knowshown Moreno highlights.  There are a LOT of WR screens, quick outs, quick slants etc., where Stafford simply zips it out to the flat or to the side; either the receiver or the downfield blocking then turn a routine play into a big gainer.  Note that many of the actual passing plays came out of the shotgun spread alignment—for all the talk that Stafford played in a “pro style” offense, it looks like whenever the Dawgs wanted to go downfield, they went to the gun.  Finally, carefully examine the opponent, score, and time on these plays.  Many of the most impressive throws come against Central Michigan, Georgia Tech, and the like.  Most telling, perhaps, is the Alabama game.

Now when it comes to college football, I bleed green and white, I follow the Big Ten, and I pay casual attention to the rest of the NCAA.  Excepting bowl games, I typically watch two or three non-Big Ten college football games per year--and last year, ‘Bama at Georgia happened to be one of them.  There was a huge buildup to this game.  It was a marquee 7:45 pm matchup, both teams were undefeated and thinking BCS, and Georgia had issued a “blackout”—black uniforms, black shirts on fans in the stands, black face paint, black everything.  It was  absolutely a circle game for both squads.  Said Georgia coach Mark Richt before the game:

"We are playing a great team -- a top 10 team and one that is coached by one of the finest coaches in America," Richt said. "They have been tested, they just have whipped everybody so bad it didn't seem like they were."

What happened? Matthew Stafford and the Georgia Bulldogs we completely blown out of their own stadium.  ‘Bama absolutely whipped them in every phase of the game.  To be fair, Stafford wasn’t really the problem--the ‘Dawgs defense was completely worthless that night, and several freak turnovers (see the 7:09 mark) dealt Matt Stafford a brutal hand to play.  However, even in the midst of all that, I was still waiting for him to take his team on his back like a great college quarterback can.  Instead, he stuck to the gameplan.

In the face of an onslaught where ‘Bama was scoring at will, Stafford was chipping away with screens and slants, watching his title season swirling down the drain.  At halftime, it was already over.  If you advance the video to 7:17, you’ll see a series of very nice 15-to-25-yard completions out of a variety of sets.  Stafford plays with urgency, accuracy, and you can see him willing his team to win.  Unfortunately, it was already 31-0.  ‘Bama was already rotating in their second-stringers, essentially ceding first downs to the Bulldogs.  I came away from watching that game thinking Matt Stafford had gamely brought his B+ knife to a 22-man gunfight.

At this point in my predraft research, I was dead set against Stafford.  He seemed to have Tim Couch written all over him--and if the Lions were to whiff on another quarterback, all the positive momentum generated up until this point would be wasted, Schwartz would already be a dead man walking, and the next three years would be just another long, slow rake across the coals.  However, while the national media was convinced that Stafford was the no-brainer pick, the news out of Allen Park seemed to point to either a left tackle or Aaron Curry.  Matt Stafford then had his Pro Day, and the consensus seemed to be vague positivity: those who were already sold saw nothing to dissuade them, and those who were convinced he was a bust saw nothing to convince them otherwise.  ESPN and Scouts, Inc.’s Todd McShay:

McShay was absolutely correct with his last point on that clip: far more important to the Lions than Stafford’s scripted Pro Day workout was his own private workout with the Lions.  As McShay said, the Lions flew a “cast of thousands” down to Athens to put Matt Stafford through his paces their way.  As Jim Schwartz put it prior to the event:

"There's nothing wrong with us saying, 'We want to see the come-back (route) thrown into the wind, but also with the wind.' You can direct that. You can put him in some situations and throw some curveballs at him, see how he reacts and how he handles that.  Before we go down, we'll have it planned out. I don't see us communicating that to him. I see us hitting him with that at the last second. We don't want him to get ready for it," Schwartz said. "Sometimes, you can have a canned nature to the workout, it can be too scripted."

So the Lions went down to Georgia with the expressed intent of getting Stafford uncomfortable.  They wanted to get him off rhythm, force him to improvise, test his instincts and his understanding, and see what he’s really made of.  How did he do?  Well according to a piece on SI.com:

“Sources described Stafford's workout as flawless, stating it was significantly better than his March 19 pro-day workout, also held at Georgia.”

My reaction to this was extreme skepticism.  Of course, in a workout hosted by Stafford and his camp at Georgia’s facilities, and viewed only by the Lions’ staff, the reports would be nothing but glowing.  The Lions, even if they weren’t interested in Stafford, had to build value for that pick if at all possible.  They needed other teams to believe that they were sitting on a gold mine.  If Stafford wasn’t the choice, the Lions needed to convince somebody else that he was worth it—or the Lions would be stuck paying cartoon money to a linebacker or lineman.  However, if it WAS true . . . then the Lions were sitting on a gold mine. 

I decided to take matters into my own hands, and sit down with the only “game film” I had: a DVR’d copy of the 2009 Capital One Bowl.  Now, I knew going into it that this game is not considered Stafford’s greatest performance.  I also watched this game on TV when it happened, and from what I remember of Georgia’s offensive possessions (in between hanging out with my family and playing Assistant Grillmaster to my man Jim, who was hosting a party), my general impression was “not impressed”.  Still, I figured I’d get right to the heart of the matter, and chart the performance.

With an arm-breakingly large tip of the hat to Brian at MGoBlog--for both the inspiration and the permission--I used his Hennechart (or “Threetsheridamnitchart”, as it’s been rechristened) concept and grading scale.  Here’s Brian’s Hennechart legend, which explains exactly what all these numbers and abbreviations mean.  Finally, let me add the caveat that I counted every time the ball left Stafford’s hand in passion as an “attempt”; thanks to plays called back on penalties, screens reclassified as laterals,  and other gray areas, there are differences between the numbers I’m putting forth, and the official stats.  Since I was really anxious to see if my hunch from watching the highlights—that Georgia runs a “pro” offense but only really throws from a spread--was on target, I broke it down by formation:

FORMATION	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
shotgun spread	4	13	7	2	1	0	1
single back 3WR	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
I-form 2WR	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
I-form 3WR	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
TOTALS	4	15	9	2	1	0	1

Yikes.  This was the last thing I wanted to see: Nearly every passing attempt came from the gun, with three or more receivers on the field.  Georgia was doing a lot of lining up in a traditional pro set or I-form, then they’d run—or, a few times Stafford would then back up and take the snap from the gun.  It would seem that if Georgia is typically this predictable—spread means pass, pro set means run—then it’s no wonder that their offense failed to meet expectations.  I’m going to chalk this up to Georgia’s staff presuming that a lot of spread looks would flummox a Big Ten defense that only sees four or five predominantly-spread teams a year (cue a hearty roll of the eyes).

I decided to also break it down by, well, down:

DOWN-DISTANCE	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
1st-and-10	1	6	4	1	0	0	1
2nd-and-short	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
2nd-and-long	0	5	3	0	0	0	0
3rd-and-short	1	3	1	0	0	0	0
3rd-and-long	1	0	1	1	1	0	0
TOTALS	4	15	9	2	1	0	1

This isn’t any great revelation; to be frank, Stafford wasn’t great in this game no matter how you slice the numbers.  9/32 throws being “inaccurate” means that almost a third of the time, his throws weren’t catchable, or were routine throws that required a circus catch.  However, there is one thing that caught my eye: on second-and-short and third-and-short (I defined “short” as five yards and under), Stafford was either “dead on” or “catchable” with 6 of 7 throws.  If you add second-and-long in to that total, Stafford came up with good, catchable throws in 11 of 15 reasonable passing situations.  That’s when it occurred to me: those are the throws Joey Harrington couldn’t make. 

Remember how infuriating it was that on second and third down, Mooch would have every target run curls, slants, and comebacks?  Joey would have like four six-yard-deep options on 3rd-and-5, and invariably he was either inaccurate, or he threw it to Az Hakim, and therefore it would go incomplete.  I don’t know how many drives got killed with a Kevin Jones run, then two incompletions.  That was the entire point of the Walsh-style offense that Mariucci ran; short, quick, accurate throws put the skill position players in space with the ball.  If Joey had executed the dink-and-dunk stuff with placement and zip, like Stafford, Mariucci’s offense would have been significantly more successful. 

Suddenly, I realized my problem: I was only looking for evidence to support my hypothesis!  I came in looking for proof that Matt Stafford is the next Jeff George; a caveman with a rocket arm who can’t make decisions or execute a gameplan.  Yet, all the evidence shows that at Georgia, Stafford rarely used that arm as a club—he often used it like a scalpel.  Here he is running a 3-to-4 WR offense, being pretty efficient with his throws, executing the gameplan and moving the ball, and I’m complaining that he’s not spraying it all over the field like Kyle Boller!

I’m certainly not saying that Stafford is going to come in and shred NFL defenses apart with his psychic defense-reading and pinpoint accuracy.  A lot of these throws are designed plays, screens and flares where Stafford isn’t making a read, he’s just pulling the trigger.  However, that in and of itself—being a quarterback who can successfully pull the trigger on second and third down—means that a top NFL offensive coordinator like Linehan ought to be able to use him, right now, just fine.  With an unstoppable deep threat in Calvin Johnson, and a short-range broad side of a barn in Brandon Pettigrew, Matthew Stafford should have all the tools he needs to perform at a serviceable level in the NFL right away.

It’s certainly not all sunshine and lollipops here; I found very little film of him executing an NFL offense from under center.  He also was mostly uninspiring in his final game as a Bulldog, when he knew the entire football world was watching closely.  However, I also saw a lot more touch, a lot more quick throws, a lot more short-range accuracy, and a lot more athleticism than I was expecting.  He played behind a makeshift line his final year at Georgia, and he made a lot of plays happen after things broke down—or, importantly, as they were breaking down around him. 

I’m not convinced that he’ll be the next Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger, but I now believe the potential is there.  Think of it this way: if he can top a 65 passer rating, he’ll be the best quarterback on the roster.  If he can be better than Charlie Batch, he’ll be the best quarterback the Lions have drafted since Rodney Peete.  If he can be better than Scott Mitchell, he’ll be the best Lions quarterback since the man who set the bar for his high school over fifty years ago: Bobby Layne.  Since Stafford already did what Layne never could—lead Highland Park to a Texas State Championship—I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’ll be better than Scott Mitchell.

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the time of reckoning is at hand

Tank McNamara, by Millar/Hinds

By all accounts, the deadline for a signed deal is tonight.  When we wake up tomorrow morning, either Matt Stafford or Aaron Curry is going to be the cornerstone of the Detroit Lions for at least the next few years.  Here's a hint: it's going to be Stafford.

Peter King (@SI_Peterking) tweeted yesterday around nine A.M. that the Lions and Stafford weren't anywhere close--but that a deal "has to" get done.  I'm hearing that safe refrain echoed all over, that the Lions want Stafford and Stafford wants the Lions and it all just makes way too much sense.   That if the Lions really do believe that Stafford is a franchise quarterback, they can't possibly let it come down to money.  That they can't bring in Aaron Curry and tell him "you're our man", when Curry knows Stafford was really their man.  That they can't pass on the guy who'll turn fifty years of rotten quarterbacking around.  That they can't play safe; can't play "not to win".  That they can't meekly lay down a sac bunt when they're down 0-16 . . .

 . . . and of course, it's all true.  I've said before, if the Lions really think that Stafford is a can't-miss franchise quarterback, then they absolutely have to take him.  There's also no doubt that this year is the perfect year to take a quarterback; if the Lions even win a single game, they literally will be infinitely better than last season!  There will be no expectations, and therefore little pressure.  Given a year or two to groom, a year or two to get comfortable, a year or two to mature and grow, a year or two for even more pieces to be put around him, Matt Stafford could indeed be the next Troy Aikman or Peyton Manning.  Were it not for the state of the Lions' defense, and the singular character and quality of Aaron Curry, I'd feel a lot better about it . . . and if it weren't for Stafford's percieved accuracy, poise, and production issues in college, I'd feel great about it. 

And what of Aaron Curry?  It's undeniable that he brings a multitude of incredible qualities to the table: sterling character, protoypical size, breathtaking speed.  The ability to drop back into coverage, roam the field like a safety, and run back picks for touchdowns.  The ability to man up on a recieving tight end, and take him completely out of the equation.  The ability to put a hand down, and come flying around the corner (he didn't do it often, but YouTube proves he can do it) . . . a wealth of seemingly contradictory skills, all rolled up into one.  The problem is that the Lions aren't going to use any of those skills.  Jim Schwartz put it thus:

"We're going to need a big thumper," Schwartz said. "I mean, a strong thumper in the middle for base defense. We're talking -- I don't want to put height and weights -- but a big, strong, physical player that can play between the tackles and that can take on offensive guards, even though (the linebacker) is being outweighed by almost 100 pounds on some occasions."

Can Aaron Curry be that thumper?  Yes, of course.  But the premium the Lions would pay for Curry--we're talking eight figures, guaranteed--over, say, USC's Rey Maualuga, would be buying them all that other wonderful stuff that Curry can do, but wouldn't be doing for the Lions.  In fact, let's look a little harder at Rey-Rey.  Standing at 6'-3", 260#, he's just a little bit bigger than Curry (6'-1", 254#).  While he didn't get a clean 40 off at the combine, thanks to a pulled hamstring, scouts timed Maualuga in the low 4.6 range at his Pro Day.  Maualuga also turned in short shuttle times around 4.25, which puts him right up with the very best.  Many Lions fans have cited the National Football Posts's famous article on short shuttle time being a key indicator of a middle linebacker's success in the NFL; Maualuga clearly shines in that department.  All told, Maualuga boasts a little bit more size, slightly shiftier hips, and all his college experience being at Mike, over Aaron Curry.  LA Times columnist Sam Farmer tweeted with me a bit yesterday about Maualuga; I offered to lay a dollar that Maualuga doesn't slip past the Lions at 1.20, and he said he wouldn't take the bet--because he agrees with me.  Honestly, is Curry's dedication to public service worth an extra twenty million dollars over a player who might even be a better pure MLB from day one?

YES!

Okay, okay--no, probably not.  If I'm answering the question honestly; if I'm using my head and not my heart, no.  Matt Stafford and Rey Maualuga would be infinitely better than Aaron Curry and any quarterback that might be available at 1.20 or later.  Will I always pine for Aaron Curry, just like I pine for Patrick Willis and Demarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman and every other monster defender that the Lions have passed up during the Millen era?  Yes, absolutely.  If Matt Stafford is the next great quarterback in the NFL, will it be worth it?

NO!

Er, yes.  Yes.  I meant "yes".

Really.

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the lines are being drawn

For days, weeks, months even, the storylines have been developing.  All the rumors, the deceptions, the smokescreens, they're all in place.  As the waiting . . . and waiting . . . and waiting . . . finally, excruciatingly, glacially blooms into the beginnings of the first signs of the coming days, when eventually, someday, we will begin to hear word of who the Lions, with the first overall pick in the NFL draft, will select.

After all the posturing, all the stonewalling, and all the innuendo, what we know for sure boils down to this:

1) Matt Stafford is telling people it's all but done, and he's going to make north of $40M guaranteed.

2) Aaron Curry is telling Sirius radio he'd be "more than happy" to take less guaranteed money than Jake Long got last year.

Add to this the fact that the Lions made a great show of publicly hosting Curry's representation last weekend, while secretly meeting with Tom Condon at the same time, and it all leads me to believe the following statement is true:

Matt Stafford will be the pick if he'll sign a reasonable deal.  The Lions are using Aaron Curry as leverage to get Stafford to come down on price.  If Stafford won't get at least within the ballpark before Saturday afternoon, Curry will be the pick.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.  I can't possibly talk angles on the #1 overall pick any further . . . I'm completely drained.  Either we will be surprised with a signing in the next seventy-six hours, or we'll find out when Roger Goodell takes that little white card up on stage.

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The game is afoot

Well Martin Mayhew, Tom Lewand, and the fine folks at Octagon Football must have gotten my letters, because yesterday the Lions brass flew Andy Ross and Michael Sullivan in to begin talking contract.  Ross and Sullivan were invited onto the sidelines to watch practice, which is interesting.  As Dave Birkett points out in a great wrapup of yesterday's minicamp workouts, what this means is that the Lions want to be seen negotiating with Aaron Curry's representation.  The fact that they are also negotiating with Matt Stafford and Jason Smith's representation, with far less fanfare (Mayhew even declined comment when asked if he was also talking to Tom Condon, Stafford's agent), underscores to me that they know the fans want Curry, and they want them to think there's a chance.  Either that, or they're trying to convince other teams that Curry's candidacy is heating up; pulling the switcheroo I've been postulating for weeks.  Two easy steps to creating a trade market for the 1.1: convince everyone that Stafford is a mortal lock--then shortly before the draft, leak that you've nearly got Curry signed.  A team in the 1.3, 1.4, 1.5 area that was already getting Aaron Curry jerseys printed up will be scrambling, and the Lions can finally slide back a few spots, get a very good player, and save themselves like $8M guaranteed over the life of the deal.

I hate it.  Sign Curry! C'mon Ross and/or Sullivan!  Negotiate like you've never negotiated!  Come in low, make your client the first #1 overall linebacker in 20 years, and reap the marketing benefits like crazy!

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an open letter

Messrs. Mayhew and Lewand--

You, gentlemen, are fully cognizant of the task you have at hand.  You figuratively hold the keys to an NFL franchise, the Detroit Lions--an organization worth, perhaps, a billion dollars.  You literally have hundreds of people in your employ, and many thousands of people indirectly rely on your success for their family's meal ticket.  On an even broader scope, millions of people over the past seventy-five years have invested their time, emotions, and money in following and supporting your organization--season tickets, single-game tickets, club and luxury suites, parking, concessions, hats, shirts, jerseys, flags, banners, stuffed animals, etc.  Of course, none of this is anything you aren't keenly aware of.

As you also know, hosting the Final Four in Detroit--with Michigan State in it to the finish line--was not only a great psychological boon to the people of Michigan, it provided a tangible economic boost to the city of Detroit.  However, as many pointed out, this was fleeting; a wonderful moment in time that can be hung on a wall--but won't pay the bills.  You, gentlemen, hold the power to generate that same kind of goodwill and rejuvenation on an ongoing basis.  With the on- and off-field renaissance of the Detroit Lions, you can bring that celebratory atmosphere back to Ford Field from autumn through winter.  You can create joy, create jobs, and create a legacy for yourselves as foremen of the rebuilding of a city.

The first overall pick of the NFL draft becomes, for good or for ill, the avatar of that franchise.  For years, the success or failure of the franchise that selects first will be chained--on the field, in the ledgers, and in the mind of the public--to the success or failure of that player.  In interviews and commercials, on the field and off, whomever you choose with that first overall pick will wear the first face anyone pictures, and speak with the first voice anyone hears, when people think of the Detroit Lions.  This selection is absolutely crucial to your rebuilding efforts; there is no room for error.

When Jim Schwartz was introduced to the media as the new head coach of the Lions, he spoke about finding the "right person", not just the right position, to take first overall.  My heart rose when I heard that, because I believe he spoke the truth.  The franchise you two now control cannot afford to bind itself to the player with the best workout numbers or the most gaudy statistics--not unless that player is also committed to being as impressive in the locker room and in the community as he is on the field.  Of course, you two have each personally investigated every aspect of these young men to a far deeper level than I could.  Between the two of you, you've watched hours of film of these players, sat and broken bread with these players, watched them in public and private workouts, spoken with them many times . . . all I have to go on is their public faces: what their agents would like me know, and what the media have been able to find out.

That having been said, I know I speak with the voice of many, many fans when I say that Aaron Curry should be the cornerstone of the new Detroit Lions.  His heart, his desire, his character, and his selflessness are all well documented.  His bringing a 12-year-old leukemia patient along with him to the draft is a perfect example of what the #1 overall pick should be to this franchise, to this city, and to this state.  His deferring of his NFL dream one more year, with his family facing homelessness, so that he could go back to school and ensure he'll be able to take care of that family for generations, proves that his priorities are in exactly the right place.  His leading a basement-dwelling Wake Forest team to the ACC championship proves he knows exactly what it means to be the heart and soul of a resurrected football team.  His once-in-a-generation combination of size, speed, agility, desire, and intelligence will immediately bolster a Lions' squad that was, just last season, arguably the worst NFL defense ever assembled.

Not long ago, the Lions' players were well known for being great leaders in the community, providers who put down roots in Detroit, and gave back to the city as much as the city had given them.  As you know, Robert Porcher won the NFL's Walter Payton Man of the Year award multiple times; Aaron Curry will surely follow in his footsteps.  Look out the window, gentlemen; read the papers on days when they can afford to be printed.  On the heels of the news that Michigan again leads the nation in joblessness, it would speak volumes about the class, the character, and the priorities of the Detroit Lions organization to ignore the hype.  To ignore the pundits and the shellacked talking heads.  To ignore the common wisdom and the conventional thinking.  To forget value charts and stopwatches, "big boards" and salary slots.  To yoke your franchise to the shoulders of a bold young man who will help Lions fans to their feet, on the field and off, again and again and again.  To restore pride to the Lions.

To draft Aaron Curry.

Forever a fan,

Ty Schalter

http://www.thelionsinwinter.com

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the cavalry

I recently particpated in a three-round fan mock over at The Huddle, a fantasy football website I've frequented for ages.  The mock started several weeks ago, and picks were selected by either a diehard fan of that team, or a committee of such fans.  Things were VERY interesting, to say the least.  It's becoming apparent that the Lions are going to have a good solid look at many outstanding propsects with each of these five picks:

1.1 - What else is left for me to say about Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry?  He's the most extraordinarily gifted player in this draft class.  He's a freak of size, speed, strength, and agility.  He's an extremely intelligent young man, with impeccable character.  He's a born leader and motivator.  He would step in and be the heart and soul of a defense that hasn't had any of either for a decade.  I know it's increasingly looking like that won't be good enough to avoid the Lions rolling the dice on yet another quarterback, but damn it, it was my pick and I made it my way.

surprise risers: 1.11, Michael Johnson to Bills; 1.12, Peria Jerry to Broncos

surprise fallers: 1.15, Matt Stafford to Texans

1.20 - An embarassment of riches?  More like an avalanche!  With one of the big three QBs yet undrafted, one of top four LTs still there, and Aaron Curry still the only LB taken, I had several players available to me that I'd figured would be long gone.  I gleefully took Ole Miss OT Michael Oher.  A player I've been following as a possible Lion-to-be for two years, Oher could step in and absolutely maul people at the LG spot, until either he supercedes Backus at LT, or Backus' contract becomes edible.  Snagging a top-ten worthy franchise LT at the 1.20 spot would be an enormous coup.  Still, if we could go into the draft knowing the USC MLB Rey Maualuga would be here at this spot, as he was for me in this one, I wouldn't feel so bad if the Lions took Stafford over Curry.  I'd still feel bad, just not "reaching for the drain cleaner" bad (thanks, Neil!).

surprise risers: 1.29, Philip Loadholt to Giants

surprise fallers: 1.23, Rey Maualuga to Patriots (those jerks always get bargains like this!), 1.25, Aaron Maybin to Dolphins, 1.29

2.1 - As I'd hoped, the QB freeze-out continued, and Kansas State QB Josh Freeman--a player I've championed as a better medium- and long-term alternative to Matt Stafford and a possible pick at 1.20--slid all the way down to the first pick in the second round.  If he makes it this far, he would represent excellent value, and the Lions would have a Young Culpepper for Linehan to start from scratch with.  I hate Culpepper, but Freeman's natural gifts are absolutely undeniable.

surprise risers: 2.31, Herman Johnson (LSU OG) to Cardinals

surprise fallers: 2.27, Evander Hood to Panthers; 2.32, Duke Robinson to Steelers

3.1 - Unlike with the 2.1, I felt tugged in several different directions but wasn't really sold on any of them.  I could go DT, WR, or DB.  Ultimately, I took CB Coye Francies out of San Diego Jose State [thanks to Anonymous for the correction!].  He's got good size at 6'-0" 185, decent speed (4.56), and has an long frame with room to grow.  He's aggressive with bumping receivers at the line, and loves to tackle (the pic you see of him above his him upending Dwayne Jarrett at the goal line).  He's hard-nosed, a hard worker, and should develop into a great complement to a pure athletic cover guy like Buchanon.  Franices also had a 22.9 yard-per-return average as a kick returner.  The big knock on Francies was a 2007 incident where he was charged with possessing a loaded firearm.  The charges were dropped, but he was still dismissed from the Oregon State team.  He then went to San Diego State to finish out his college career.   Francies isn't jawdropping value here, but is definitely an okay pick.  I feel strongly that the Lions will come away with a CB out of their first four with a CB, and Francies was the best CB who could tackle and return available.

surprise risers: none really

surprise fallers: 3.15, SenDerrick Marks (Auburn DT) to Broncos; 3.17, Fili Moala (USC DT)

3.20: It was wild to watch those two DTs fall (I've seen Marks projected as a high second-round guy) . . . I was hoping one would slide to me.  Instead they both got snapped up right in front of me.  Then I was left with a somewhat decimated board.  I decided to go with the best player available, and that was UNC wideout Brandon Tate.  An incredible athlete who's a monster returner, Tate is the all-time NCAA D-I record holder for career return yardage.  Tate was used both from the WR and RB positions, but projects as a slot wideout in the NFL.  He's amazing in space and after the catch, and would be a outstanding addition to the Lions' WR corps.  Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and MCL just five games into his senior season, leaving most of his potential unfulfilled.  Despite the short time on the field, his incredible contributions as a wideout, RB (he was leading the team in rushing when he was injured), and kick returner still garnered him Honorable Mention All-ACC honors.  I think that depending on his knee, Tate might possibly be there for the Lions at 4.1, but they don't have the 4.1, or the 5.1 either for that matter.  The 3.20 will be the last chance the Lions have to draft an impact player, so why not draft a guy who would have been a high-second, low-first if he'd finished out his senior year?  I received many commendations for this selection.

This draft shows exactly how much talent the Lions will be adding to the roster.  I feel strongly that these are the positions they'll be addressing with their magical First Five: LB, OL, QB, CB, and WR.  They may well trade down to make it a magical First Six or First Seven, even.  We can't assume that all these guys will start and succeed right away-or even ever.  The odds say that three of these five talented players will never be significant contributors.   But, this draft will provide a desperately needed influx of skill at several positions of desperate need . . . it can only be a good thing.

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aaron curry, we hardly knew ye

I don't normally post straight links to other places without any other content involved, but please, everyone, if you haven't already, take a look at Pride of Detroit's interview with New Era Scouting's David Syvertsen.  It's really eye-opening, and chock full of all the "football guy" stuff that's missing from a lot of fan analysis (like mine), and doesn't have any of the fannish manlove (like mine for Curry), or fannish NEVER!s (like mine for Stafford).  Bottom line, it's just good stuff.

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cryin' like aerosmith

 . . . tell me it's not true!

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neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet, nor dark of night

I've decided to start an as-frequently-as-will-be-productive "mailbag" post series.  I've gotten some interesting email over the past couple of days, so I figured I'd share both what's coming in, and what's going back out with you all.  If you've got a question, suggestion, or diatribe you'd like to send me, please hit me up at  thelionsinwinter@gmail.com.  Let's get to the first one, from "N O".

Hello, 

real quick about me: live in NH & just an all around NFL junkie.

so yeah, I don't get to see any Lions games but, love following
team rebuilds. 

all that being said, WTF is wrong with Stanton?? on paper he looks pretty good.
albeit I haven't seen one preseason game but, again, on paper...& if Linehan is
all he's cracked up to be shouldn't this be OK? with all the other holes in
the lineup why am I seeing talk about taking a QB? Unless you hear Trent
Dilfer talking these QB's are not Matt Ryan. 
educate me please!

Well, Stanton has a few issues. First, when he was drafted, Mike Martz didn't like him at all. His strengths aren't the strengths needed for Martz's system. At his first minicamp, Martz completely broke down Stanton's technique, starting with how he stands and how he holds a football. Then, Stanton got hurt. It looked like he would likely miss all of the preaseason, so they made the bizarre decision to put him on IR (presumably since the preseason was all the live action he was going to see anyway). However, since he couldn't participate in practice, Martz didn't work with him anymore. Stanton spent the first season not allowed to get reps, not allowed to be coached, not being built back up after being broken down.  Obviously, the one active roster spot they saved with this maneuver made a big enough difference in the won-loss record that it totally justified torpedoing the development of a quarterback they'd just spend a second-rounder on . . . Then, last season, Martz was gone, and the QB coach (Scott Loeffler) basically just got him back to normal. He flashed some serious potential in the preseason last year, then resumed his role as the third-string guy. Oddly, when Kitna got hurt, and Orlovsky got hurt, they signed Culpepper rather than let Stanton play. The reason given was that they didn't want him to "embarass" himself--yet in what little time he's gotten, he's looked great. Now he'll be on his fourth OC in four years, Loeffler is gone, too, and the current front office and coaching staff has no investment in him as the QB of the Future. Schwartz seems eager to evaluate him, but Mayhew seems to have completely written him off. It's a shame, but I think Stanton has a very bright future--just not with the Lions.

N O replied:

so...that's really really sad. It amazes me how quickly some of these potentially talented guys are quickly forgottenuntil some other team picks them up & then bam! to me, this is a bad a move as signing (the other) Johnson. If theyuse their 1st pick on a QB I'm going to puke. Maybe I'm crazy but, you can still get really good value at tackle with the 20th or trade down. I'm also really surprised that more teams aren't taking pages out of the Falcons playbook. I think Tom D (their GM) is the only guy that got "the Patriots way" (and no I'm some crazed Pats fan). Glad tosee one of the ex Patriots got it right..

If that's all true I hope Stanton lands in Philly or goes to Washington & is coached up by Zorn.

You know, it is really tough. There are so many players who come out of college with the aptitude to make it--but between injury, timing, coaching, personality disagreements, what have you--but don't work out. Let's face it, who's a better talent, Dan Orlovsky or Drew Stanton? Orlovsky got drafted and stashed for four years, and made the most of his moment in the sun--which happened to come in a contract year. He gets a nice FA deal to back up a weak starter on a team with a great offensive coach and a true stud wideout. If DS got the same treatment he'd be an all-Pro, I'm sure of it. Instead he's getting put out to the curb with all the rest of Millen's "trash".

You mention two good destinations for him, but I'm looking at St. Louis. The new OC there is Pat Shurmur, a former MSU QB and longtime Philly QB coach.   I believe Drew endorsed him for the MSU head coaching gig during the last hiring cycle. That all having been said, I still hold out hope DS blows 'em away in the OTAs and gets to keep his Lions' ballcap-and-clipboard.

Next came one from a reader named Neal:

I must say I personally think that Mayhew has done very well. No big anmes were going to sign here, and they had no business trying to sign big names to big contracts, when they are about to have about $100 invested in the first 5 picks in the draft. All of whom should be starters or at the least contribute. I would greatly prefer an OL first overall, and then Lauranitis, at 20. Then Freeman with the third(33 overall) and as far as picks beyond that, hopefully find a diamon in the rough, and maybe a CB, or any Defensive player? I do feel as if Fluellen will get a oppurtunity. However, I beleive Mayhew really is going to roll with Darby and Jackson; hoping for a DT to fall into hsi lap in rounds 3-5, maybe? I do beleive that even though their young, I just cant see Dizon, Francis, and/or Cohen ever beign any good.
My thoughts are Mayhew thinks, HOPES he can make a star out of Culpepper, and I strongly believe if he CAN NOT get Cutler, then he'll stay away from Quarterbacks, Veteran, and/or rookie! Which I believe Orlovsky deserved to be the starter this year, but eh? So, if Culpepper really has slimmed down from his 300 lbs he checked in at last year, then they better get him some protection, draft Smith, or Monroe, and move Backus to LG or RG, even, especially with Gosder, and now Daniel Loper, they have flexibility. 
I loved the signing of a veteran CB, like Buchanon, and think trading for Henry to move to Safety, plus getting Morris, and Johnson are nice compliments. TJ "WhosYaMaama" and Derrick Ward werent coming here so, they did well with these signings.

Like I said in an earlier post, I secretly wear Martin Mayhew underoos. I think he might be a seriously, seriously gifted executive. The acquisitions have all been cheap, effective, no-committment deals that simply perfectly fill the holes in the roster for 2009. None of these guys are being billed as saviors, none of them have big guaranteed money; Mayhew could cut them all next season without a second thought. Yet, all of them are possible, if not probable, major contributors next year . . .

Draft stuff? I think Curry could be the next Ray Lewis, a game-changing dominator. I think James Laurenitis will be a good run-stuffing MLB. There seems to be a prevailing attitude that any first-round-caliber MLB will make an equal impact, and it just isn't true. That having been said, Laurenitis *should* be much better than Dizon would be this year, so it'd be an upgrade at the very least. I think that Curry over Dizon would be a much bigger upgrade than Smith over Backus, both for 2009 and beyond. I actually favor going Curry, then drafting a C/G for the future with the 2.1 (presuming Michael Oher doesn't fall to us at the 1.20, which he might).

Outside of his inexplicable love of Culpepper--which, you're right, he seems to think that it's either Culpepper, an established young stud, or fugheddaboudit--Mayhew seems to have a great grasp of what talent he needs to turn the Lions into the team he wants them to be. It so happens that I agree with his vision, as well. I think the Lions are in great hands . . . it's nice to be able to think that for the first time in a long, long time.

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the Lions Congregation, part IV

It's time for another round of the Lions Congregation over at the Church of Schwartz.  Topics for today are:

* Julian Peterson Trade: Yay, Nay or Meh?

* What Do You Prefer: Aaron Curry at 1.1 or Stafford/OT at 1.1 and James Laurinaitis at 1.20?

* Are any of the young linemen on the roster (Cohen, Fluellen, Ikaika A-F) capable of filling Redding’s shoes?

I encourage you folks to check out the Good Reverend's site; he has a draft review series going right now that's a unique idea.  It's also brutally depressing . . .

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dhani jones tackles your heart

The other night, I was watching the Travel Channel--I'm a big fan of the Anthony Bourdain vehicle, "No Reservations"--and what came on, but the new Dhani Jones show, "Dhani Jones Tackles the World".  The concept is that former Michigan linebacker, NFL journeyman, NFLN personality, and noted fashion plate Dhani Jones travels the world, engaging in a variety of indigenous sports, games, and feats of strength.  Along the way he interfaces with the local culture, exploring their food, music, customs, and nightlife.

This is intriguing to me for several reasons: first, Dhani Jones is an interesting fellow.  A rare scholarship athlete who strove to live life as just another student, Jones made a bit of a name for himself as an intellectual.  Well spoken in interviews, Jones definitely comes across as more than just a jock.  However, a couple years back, PFT ran a small article (haven't found it yet), saying that Jones was a disappointment to the Eagles because he had trouble understanding the playbook.  This touched off a mini-firestorm, as some folks pointed out his reputation as a scholar, and others said the bowtie-and-glasses 'warrior poet' image was basically an act to get girls.  Ever since that day, I've always wanted to see more of Dhani, to settle the matter once and for all.  Second, I have always been curious to see exactly how NFL athletes stack up to other athletes.  It seems to me that there's no other sport that both allows and requires such a wide variety of body types to succeed.  Barry Sanders at a (generous) 5'-8", 180# is one of the greatest football players who've ever lived.  So is Johnathan Odgen, at 6'-9", 345#.  All American football players benefit from American nutrition, American gyms, American doctors, etc.. . . essentially, all NFL players are absolute freaks of nature, combinations of size, speed, and strength that seemingly cannot exist.  Other countries around the world often pooh-pooh football because of the massive amounts of protective gear they wear--but if they let Jonathan Odgen play rugby, that sport would adopt pads and helmets in very short order. 

I really enjoyed the show.  Dhani trekked to Thailand to try his hand at Muy Thai, a Thai martial art that involves a lot of elbows, shins, and cracked ribs.  If you've watched any of that MMA stuff all the kids are into these days, you've seen some of it.  Dhani is only a middling NFL linebacker, but he looks like an incredible physical specimen--and believe me, we got to see plenty of him with his shirt off.  Note to my fellow married men: your wife will definitely not mind you watching this show.  Even while training alongside some of Thailand's best fighters, Dhani was a giant; a physical freak from what might as well be a different planet.  Yet, the training regimen they put him on completely changed him in just a week.  He dropped "five kilos" (about eleven pounds), and it was definitely noticable.  He didn't have much body fat before, but he looked really really lean and mean.  I don't know how he can film all these show and bulk back up in time for training camp.  Anyway, at the end of the week, he squared off against a large (frankly fat) Muy Thai fighter and defeated him in the second round.  It was clear: had Dhani spent six months or a year grinding away at this training, he might become a champion--as it was, he merely took his bows and moved on to the next challenge.

He strove to learn not just the kicks and punches, but the customs, the clothes, the prefight dance that fighters do to honor family, ancestors, teachers, etc.  He picked up the moves very very quickly; even though the footage was edited, it was obvious that he was getting most stuff on the first try, and executing it very well, with lots of attention to detail.  Even more fascinating, the language 'barrier' barely existed.  Most of the guys who interfaced with Dhani spoke a modicum of English, but in all the training montages, there was little talking. Dhani was staring intently and mimicking: stance, pose, motion, technique.  I got the distinct feeling that the Dhani and the fighter who was primarily training him had gone past "English" and "Thai", and were communicating entirely physically.  It reminded me of an interview with Larry Fitzgerald, when he was still a draft prospect.  He'd been a ball boy for the Vikings, and he talked about thow the Vikes wideouts would coach him.  Cris Carter would coach like a coach, talking to him, explaining, correcting his technique.  Randy Moss, however, would simply say "watch me" and then demonstrate.  It's here where we start to see different forms of intelligence, different forms of communication take over.  Like the famous case of Vince Young getting a 6 on the Wonderlic after leading Texas to a national championship, and looking Jordanesque while doing it.  There IS, I'm convinced, such a thing as physical intelligence.  An ability to understand how the body works.  An instinctual knowledge of kinesthetics that applies to everything you do.  Full command over every part of your body at once, without the restriction of concious thought.  Dhani Jones has this gift.  His counterpart remarked to the other fighters at the gym that he was amazed at how quickly, how instinctually he grasped the techniques--as well as how large and powerful he is.

Add thirty pounds and a whole lot of speed, and you get Aaron Curry.

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told you so

From Killer:

Detroit Lions general manager Martin Mayhew addressed several topics in an interview today, including the fact that the acquisition of Pro Bowl linebacker Julian Peterson does not change the team's draft plans concerning Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry. In college, Curry played the strong side but Mayhew said that if the Lions draft Curry, he would be the team's starting middle linebacker "from day one.''

Maybe it's not the most likely scenario out there, but I still say we need this kid to be the heart of our defense.

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speculation about speculation about speculation

This little tidbit appeared on the mlive.com "Highlight Reel" blog: the Lions might be sniffing around Buffalo's LT, Jason Peters.  Peters played last year in Buffalo only after an extensive holdout, and this year he looks ready to do the same.  Peters is doing the same thing that many of us have been doing lately when examining candidates for the first overall pick: comparing his worth to that of 2008 rookie LT Jake Long.  This is the first time (that I know of) that a player is trying to establish his market price in relation to a recent top pick, as opposed to what other veterans are fetching on the free agent market.  The Bills appear to be essentially saying, "Hey, 1.1s get 1.1 money; their market is compared to previous 1.1s, not to veteran players of the same position".  These negotiations, if they go sour, might be a tipping point in the debate over the contracts doled out at the top of the draft . . .

Meanwhile, the Lions are licking their chops.  If they can get a young, proven veteran LT in his prime, then they will have filled another hole.  Moreover, that would give them tremendous flexibility in their attempts to swing a deal for Jay Cutler.  If they already have a franchise LT, and MLBs look plentiful at 1.20, they could trade the 1.1 to Denver, let them board the Matt Stafford Failboat, and ride Jay Cutler to the NFC North title, the year after going 0-16.  Or, they could draft Aaron Curry 1.1, and still give up the 1.20 without giving up the chance to land a quality LT.  Or, they could draft Stafford 1.1 without guilt, knowing they've already built a tremendous OL in front of him, and put talented skill players around him.

One other article I'd like to draw your attention to is over at DF79's blog.  He dissected the Redding/Peterson trade in incredible detail, including all of the various salary cap implications.  A tip of that hat to you, sir.

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i'm getting sentimental over you

Last night, I started in on my way home from work, and turned the radio to the Huge Show, a Grand Rapids-based syndicated sports talk show. Almost immediately after I turned it on, who comes on as a guest? Aaron Curry. Go ahead and listen to the interview right here; believe me when I say it is worth the time.

When Simonson said "Aaron, I know that right now, Lions fans are crying in their cars, praying to God that the Lions draft you number one overall", I laughed out loud because that was nearly what I was doing. This kid sounds like a true gem: an intelligent, dedicated, hardworking young man who puts his family first, excellence second; little else rates at all. He speaks of leadership, of committment, of character. But moreover he speaks of tenacity, of relentlessness. What he said to elicit that quote out of Huge was naming one classic and one modern player whose game he patterns himself after: Lawrence Taylor and Ray Lewis.

Of course, talk is cheap, so I decided to go to the definitive criterion on whether or not a player is any good: YouTube highlight reels. There are several out there on Curry, some with better quality than others. This one is my favorite (make sure you enable high quality!).

The thing that dropped my jaw most was not the breathtaking pass rush ability, the big hits, the interceptions, the incredible awareness, or the great open field tackling. No, what dropped my jaw is that all of those things were on the same highlight reel. Normally with these things, you have (for example) the famous Sam McGuffie mixtape--where you get an unbroken string of Sanderseque run after Sandersesque run. You're not going to see McGuffie move the pile. You're not going to see him flex out to WR. You're not going to see him taking snaps at QB. You're going to see a kid doing the one thing he does really well, over and over and over and over.

Curry did EVERYTHING exceptionally well at Wake. He'd line up at the end of the line, put a hand down, and rush the passer like an end--and look like Freeney coming around the corner. He'd do the same on rushing downs, standing up tight ends, shedding blocks, and making tackles at the line. He'd play traditional on-ball SAM, blanketing the TE and breaking up passes. He'd drop deep into coverage, read the QBs eyes, break on the ball like a safety, pick passes off and motor past everyone on the field for the TD. He'd blitz from the outside and absolutely eat quarterbacks. I love his open-field tackling; after watching the Lions needing four or five guys to bring anybody down, having a guy who can square up, hit, wrap, and bring a guy down with no help would be heaven.  His read/recognition skills are unbelievable; on all of the highlights you'll see him sniff out screens (once on Mr. Popularity Darrius Heyward-Bey), recognize reverses, and fail to fall for fakes. There's one play against Navy where the QB does two fake handoffs, and Curry blows off the snap and goes right for the QB. He never flinches on either fake and drops the QB before he's even done with the second fake. The "Jacked Up"-worthy hit drove the QB into the turf, and he didn't get out of the turf until the trainers came for him.

I cannot explain to you how desperately we need this young man on our team.

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NSS Interblog Mock Draft

The Next Season Sports Interblog Mock Draft is getting ready for its second-go round--which means we're starting at the top once again. This time, Steve from Detroit Lions Weblog and I will flip spots--I'll take the 1.1, and he'll handle the 1.20.  It hasn't been posted yet, because Aaron over at NSS is trying to corral all the picks up front, but I assure you it's underway.  With the entire field of prospects available to me, I selected this guy:

It was a really difficult choice. For me, if I am in Mayhew's chair, I am looking at making a guaranteed MINIMUM of a five-year, thirty-five million-dollar investment in a dude who may or may not be able to legally buy beer. This is absolutely walking the tightrope as a GM; getting this pick right means a you add a perennial Pro Bowler to a team desperate for playmakers. Getting it wrong means you probably seal the fate of the team, the coaches, the franchise, and yourself for the next five years. It seems a little early and often in the Mayhew Era to be calling for do-or-die moments, but this pick is just as crucial to the Lions' future as the head coach hire.  

What is the "safe" pick? Well, if you look at the recent history of top ten QB picks . . . it's disastrous. Basically once you get beyond Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers, every top ten QB pick of the past ten years has been an abject failure. If you look at the LTs selected, there have been a mix of "good" ones and "bad" ones--but even the "bad" ones (D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Robert Gallery) have developed into solid contributors. So, of the two positions most commonly selected at 1.1, QB or LT, there is an overwhelming case to be made that the LT is the safer pick.

Moreover, while great QBs can and do come from all over the first round, and some times even later, elite LTs pretty much only come from the top ten picks in the draft. LTs who have the potential to be the next Orlando Pace or Johnathan Ogden always go in the top five or ten--and once they are drafted they either hit, and retire with the team that drafted them, or miss, and get shifted to guard--and maybe eventually released after the second contract.  

There are several excellent LTs to choose from at this #1 overall spot, and ideally, the Lions won't be sitting at 1.1 next year. So why would I pass up the (I hope) last-for-a-long-time opportunity to take a franchise LT? Well, let me present a few reality checks:

* the Lions' starting linebackers are, of this moment:

SLB - Alex Lewis, career special teamer, 6'-0", 228#
MLB - Jordon Dizon, 2nd year guy, lost rookie year to injury, 6'-0", 229#
WLB - Ernie Sims, Pro Bowl potential but pedestrian reality, 5'-11", 220#

That would be an unacceptably small LB corps for a Big Ten school, let alone a NFL team.

* The Lions allowed 32.3 points per game last year, by far the worst in the NFL.

* The Lions allowed 2,754 yards rushing to opponents last year, on 536 carries--that's an average of 5.1 ypc.

* The Lions were passed against fewer times than any team in the NFL, yet allowed the 27th most yardage.

* Opposing passers' average QB rating was 110.9. No, that's not a typo, one hundred and ten point nine.

Okay, so, get it? The defense was beyond atrocious last year; it was historically bad. Statistically speaking, the defense was dead last in nearly every category. On top of that, the Lions let starting MLB Paris Lenon, and starting SLB Ryan Nece walk out the door as free agents. So, basically, the LB position was a lethal weakness in 2008, and it is significantly worse now.

It's true that the OL has been a sore spot with Lions fans since the freak paralysis of G Mike Utley in 1991, and the tragic accidental death of G Eric Andolsek in the ensuing offseason. However, there are multiple ways to address the issue. This draft has several excellent interior line prospects in the late-first, early-second round window. If we were to draft, say, Cal's Alex Mack with the 2.1, he would be able to immediately compete for a starting guard spot, as well as back up Dominic Raiola for now--and of course he could eventually replace Raiola once he develops. Further, given the run on tackles in the 2008 draft, and the bumper crop of tackles in the 2009 draft, there are going to be 9 or 10 teams that just blew a first-rounder on a tackle when the 2010 draft rolls around. Assuming the Lions don't pull a miraculous worst-to-first (a safe assumption), they should be drafting in the 5-15 range next season, which is a perfectly fine spot to find a tackle, or trade up to get one. Assuming I'm right that there is an unusal lack of demand, the Lions could well take care of the interior OL directly this year, and get their LT of the future next season.

Okay, so why Curry?  Curry's incredible size (6'-2", 254#), speed (4.56) and intelligence could make him the best Lion on the defensive side of the ball from day one.  Besides desperately needing Curry's production, the Lions' defense has even greater need of a leader.  Ernie Sims plays with lots of passion, but he doesn't have the gift of inspiring other men to play like he does.  Curry could immediately fill that role.  Finally, Schwartz has been saying all along that he doesn't want "the right position", he wants "the right person": a good kid, a hard worker, someone who's both athletically elite and a remarkable individual--and he's pointed at Megatron as the perfect example of that. Between his insightful blogging, (you really do have to click that link and read it!) his committment to supporting his family, and his jaw-dropping skill set, I really think that Curry is "the right person".

We went to a place called Palomino, across the street from the hotel, with the head coach, Jim Schwartz, and a couple of other coaches. Mostly, they just wanted to know what kind of person I am because they already know the type of player I am. They wanted to know if I could handle the pressure of being a number one pick. I told them I was willing and ready. Then they wanted to know if I was the person and player they could build a defense around. I told them I was ready to lead their defense next season. I don't know yet if I convinced them, but I think I did a pretty good job. We'll find out soon enough.

Indeed we will, Aaron.

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