The Watchtower: Lions at Buccaneers

Ahh, the long-awaited Watchtower. For those of you unfamiliar, the Watchtower is my weekly preview of the Lions’ matchup against their opponent. I analyze the prior matchups between the Lions’ coordinators and their opponents’; I look for statistical trends that could reveal a systemic advantage for one side or another. To review prior works, just search for the label “the watchtower.”

Late in the 2010 season, the 4-10 Lions traveled to the 8-6 Bucs. The Lions, of course, dragged a three-year, 26-game road losing streak down to Florida with them. Due to some overambitious scheduling, I couldn’t complete a full Watchtower before that game. I did do some quick analysis, though, and projected a 17-20 Lions loss:

I know the Lions are circling this date as the date the snap the road losing streak--but that losing streak is a mighty dragon, and I don't have enough data to say the Lions will slay it.

Of course, that final score was awfully close; the teams were knotted at 20 after four quarters, and the Lions needed Dave Rayner to convert his third field goal of the day to win it in overtime. How did the Lions outperform offensive expectations that day? Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Greg Olson vs. Gunther Cunningham

Olson

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Gun

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

2010

TBB

20th

21.3

6.80

4.64

DET

19th

23.1

6.75

4.51

20

-6%

7.64

+12%

6.29

+36%

Greg Olson’s name sounds familiar to most Lions fans.

No, not Greg Olsen, Greg Olson.

Yeah, Greg Olson—Detroit Lions quarterbacks coach in 2004 and 2005, and offensive coordinator from when Steve Mariucci got the ziggy to the conclusion of the 2005 season.

Olson’s coaching pedigree is all over the map, and his Lions connections are dizzying. He was OC and QB coach at his alma mater, Central Washington, from 1990-1993. If the name of that NAIA school rings a bell, it’s because Olson oversaw the development of legendary CWU quarterback Jon Kitna.

Olson moved up to take over Idaho’s offensive coordinator gig, left vacant by the departure of Scott Linehan. Olson’s next job was QB coach at Purdue under spread guru Joe Tiller, and from 1997-2000 Olson’s star pupil was one Drew Brees. In 2001, the San Francisco 49ers’ Steve Mariucci hired Olson to coach the quarterbacks; Olson guided Jeff Garcia to his second consecutive Pro Bowl.

After returning to Purdue for one season as recruiting coordinator and tight ends coach, Olson returned to the NFL, again as QB coach, this time for Chicago. When Steve Mariucci was hired in Detroit, he hired Olson to be his quarterbacks coach. Olson actually took over playcalling duties for the Lions for the last three games of the ‘04 season, theoretically to free up Mooch so he could focus on overall coaching.

When Mooch’s overall coaching did not go so well, and the Lions tabbed Gary Moeller Dick Jauron [Ed.- this is why you don't blog the midnight oil] as the interim head man, Olson took over the offensive coordinator duties, as well. Unfortunately, Jauron, Olson, and the rest of the Lions’ staff were broomed to make way for Rod Marinelli and Mike Martz.

Olson found a home in St. Louis, working as offensive coordinator underneath . . . wait for it . . . Rams head coach Scott Linehan. Olson then jumped to Tampa Bay, where he served as quarterbacks coach under OC Bill Muir and head coach Jon Gruden. When Raheem Morris took over, he hired former Boston College head coach Jeff Jagodzinksi—then fired him on the eve of the Bucs’ first preseason game. Olson was then elevated to offensive coordinator.

So. Olson has run the Dennis Erickson spread, the Mariucci WCO, the Joe Tiller spread, the Scott Linehan Dennis Erickson With Double Meat, and the Jon Gruden WCO. He’s coached Jon Kitna, Jeff Garcia twice, and Joey Harrington. Unfortunately, what he hasn’t done with any frequency is coach against Gunther Cunningham.

The Lions didn't play the Chiefs in 2004 or 2005, and when Olson was working with Linehan, Gunther was running Herman Edwards’ Tampa 2, not his usual system. The Lions didn’t play the Bucs in 2009 either, so the most recent clash is all we have to go on.

Last year, the Bucs’ offense was the 20th-most potent in the NFL, racking up 21.3 points per game. They passed for a respectable 6.80 yards per attempt, and ran for a very solid 4.64 YpC. Meanwhile, the Lions had the 19th-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 23.1 PpG, 6.75 YpA, and 4.51 YpC. My expectation would have been for the Bucs to score a little more than usual, while running and passing just as effectively as they typically did.

Instead, the opposite occurred.

The Lions held the Bucs to 20 points; down 6% from their season average. Yet, the Bucs were 12% more effective passing, and a whopping 36% more effective on the ground. This was mostly due to the walloping efforts of LeGarette Blount, who racked up 110 yards on just 15 carries. His 7.33 YpC average on the day was much greater than his season average of 5.0. Tampa Bay protected the ball well, too: no fumbles or picks. So why didn’t the Bucs score more?

Well, the three sacks for 25 yards made an impact; one was on 3rd-and-5, one was on 2nd-and-14, and the last was on 1st-and-10 but was for –14 yards. Two of the three stopped drives. Tampa’s 3rd-down percentage was just 41%, compared to 50% for the Lions. Finally, The Bucs were also penalized nine times for –65 yards.

Unfortunately, I can’t identify a systemic advantage from one data point. Disproportionately disrupting scoring by stopping drives with sacks is the design goal of the defense. I’m kind of stunned it worked with Blount being so devastating; I expect the Bucs to give Blount more than 15 carries this Sunday. We have no current performance data to go on, so I’ll have to recycle last year’s. I project the Bucs’s offense will meet expectations, scoring 20-23 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

The Bucs as a team, the Bucs’ offense in particular, and Josh Freeman in even more particular, are on the rise. Greg Olson’s resumé is stunning (I expect him to be a hot head coaching candidate soon), and Tampa Bay’s offense could be much more potent this year than last. Of course, the same could be said for the Lions’ defense; they’ve dramatically upgraded the back seven, especially against the run. I was stunned at the complete lack of turnovers for both sides; any turnovers in this game could have a big effect on the bottom line.

Scott Linehan vs. Raheem Morris

Lin

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Morris

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

2010

DET

15th

22.6

6.02

3.99

TBB

9th

19.9

6.17

4.75

23

+2%

6.63

+10%

6.46

+62%

Raheem Morris’ path to NFL head coaching is short and sweet. He attended Hofstra University, coached there as a grad assistant, got a job, got hired away by Cornell, got hired back. The Bucs hired him as a quality control assistant, then two promotions, then he went to Kansas State to coordinate their defense for one season, then back to the Bucs as DB coach, then promoted to defensive coordinator after the season, then promoted to head coach a month later when Jon Gruden was fired.

Morris turned 35 a week ago. I turn 30 this weekend. This does not compute.

As a Monte Kiffin disciple, first once then twice removed, Morris runs a more aggressive flavor of the Tampa 2: the “Tampa 2.1.” It’s still smaller D-linemen in one-gap schemes, backed with lots of zone coverage by the linebackers and safeties. But there’s a lot more blitzing, and more press coverage by the cornerbacks.

Last season, the Bucs’ defense tightened up tremendously from 2009: they allowed 19.9 PpG,  a whopping 5.9-point improvement. They went from being the 27th-best offense to the 9th-best, allowing just 6.17 YpA. The run defense was less impressive; offenses averaged 4.75 YpC.

The Lions’ offense finished as the 15th-best unit in the NFL last season, averaging 22.6 points per game. The passing offense was underwhelming, averaging just 6.02 YpA. The running game was an eyelash short of 4.0 YpC, the stoutest season-long team rushing performance from the Lions in quite some time.

In last year’s contest, the Lions scored 23 points, right on target with their season average—considering this was against a top ten scoring defense, that sounds like impressive outperformance of expectations . . . but they needed overtime to do it, and the Bucs were without DT Gerald McCoy. We’ll say they met expectations. However, they netted 6.63 YpA, a modest-but-noteworthy 10% boost above their season average. They also gained a monster 6.46 YpC, a walloping 62% increase. How’d they do it?

Well, Maurice Morris matched LeGarrette Blount’s astonishing 7.33 YpC performance with 7.27 YpC of his own: given the same 15 carry workload, he toted it 109 yards. For those of you trying to figure out whether Jerome Harrison or Keiland Williams will be the backup and change-of-pace back, you may want to re-watch this game.

The story is basically the same in reverse: the Lions more-or-less met expectations last time. Without any established trends for this year, I can only project the Lions’ offense to meet expectations, scoring 21-24 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Well, the Lions will have a healthy Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best this time around; when they had both healthy year they were a much more potent offense. That having been said, this Bucs team went 10-6 last year and figure to be better this year; beating an opponent like that on the road will be no easy task.

Conclusion:

I really wish I had more than one data point to go on. This is a fantastic Week 1 matchup; a really intriguing set of talented units with experienced and clever coaches. Strength of projection aside, I wish these coordinators had had more chess matches against each other! Again, while highlighting the extreme paucity of data, I’m going to swallow hard, wipe the sweat from my forehead, tug at my collar and project the most likely outcome to be another narrow Lions victory: 24-21, albeit in regulation this time.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,tampa bay buccaneers,jim schwartz,gunther cunningham,scott linehan,raheem morris,greg olson

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History Lessons: Aaron Curry & 3rd Preseason Games

I’ve rarely called out the leaders of the Detroit Lions. Neither the coaches nor executives receive much criticism on this blog. For starters, The Lions in Winter exists partly as a haven from brain-dead “fire the lousy bums” talk. For seconds, the Lions’ leadership hasn’t done much to deserve criticism. When they have, I’ve been quick to say so—publicly and privately.

The other reason is, the closer I get to the business of football and football media, the more I realize just how far removed fans are from the reality of the game. I have to be awfully sure that I, professional IT nerd, armed with nothing but my HDTV and DVR and iPhone and Mac Pro, know better than the men paid millions of dollars to run this team with every conceivable resource at their fingertips for me to speak out. Every once in a while, though, I’m convinced I’m right—and I do something silly like write an open letter to the Lions’ brass, demanding that they draft Aaron Curry:

Not long ago, the Lions' players were well known for being great leaders in the community, providers who put down roots in Detroit, and gave back to the city as much as the city had given them.  As you know, Robert Porcher won the NFL's Walter Payton Man of the Year award multiple times; [Ed.- Actually, he didn't.] Aaron Curry will surely follow in his footsteps.  Look out the window, gentlemen; read the papers on days when they can afford to be printed.  On the heels of the news that Michigan again leads the nation in joblessness, it would speak volumes about the class, the character, and the priorities of the Detroit Lions organization to ignore the hype.  To ignore the pundits and the shellacked talking heads.  To ignore the common wisdom and the conventional thinking.  To forget value charts and stopwatches, "big boards" and salary slots.  To yoke your franchise to the shoulders of a bold young man who will help Lions fans to their feet, on the field and off, again and again and again.  To restore pride to the Lions.

To draft Aaron Curry.

Aaron Curry has just restructured his contract, lopping the last two years and five million guaranteed dollars off of it. Suddenly, this year becomes a make-or-break; if he doesn’t perform up to his incredible potential the ‘Hawks may trade or release him without a cap hit. Even if they don’t deal him in this next offseason, he’ll likely be playing in Seattle to audition for a contract elsewhere.

This doesn’t mean fans are always wrong and the professionals are always right; otherwise Rod Marinelli would still be using his bully pulpit to harangue Detroit media for their ignorance of the invisible. No, the lesson here is to use the past to gain perspective on the present. Not for the first time, we see that a combination of height, weight, and speed doesn’t necessarily translate into an impact player. Not for the first time, we see that 4-3 outside linebackers have to be truly incredible to have a significant impact. Not for the first time, we see that a player’s off-field personality doesn’t necessarily translate to on-field anything.

One of the hardest things to do is temper expectations for this weekend’s game. After a glorious trouncing of the Bengals, and an unpalatably sloppy win over the Browns, facing the Patriots on national TV with both coaching staffs gameplanning and all available starters going at least a half? It’s a legitimate, and very scary, measuring stick. It seems the Lions always a tough out for this matchup, and it almost never goes well.

In 2007, the Colts, fresh off a Super Bowl win, dismantled the Lions 37-10. In 2006 Rod Marinelli flew the Lions into Oakland the day they were supposed to play, to prove they could show up and beat anyone, anywhere, anytime. The about-to-go-2-14 Raiders beat the Lions 21-3. In 2005, the Rams came to town—with the Monday Night Football crew—and punked the Lions 37-13 (after a last-minute garbage time Lions TD). In 2004, the Lions played the Ravens in Baltimore and, predictably, lost.

In 2009, though, the Lions again took on a lesser Colts team and—with some late-game Drew Stanton heroics—won 18-17. Last season, the third game was the Great Lakes Classic, and Matthew Stafford’s excellent performance kickstarted a 35-27 win over the unimpressive Browns. Now, for the first time, Jim Schwartz has followed Mariucci and Marinelli’s precedent and set the preseason bar as high as it will go.

History tells us that preseason wins and losses are meaningless; we need look no further than the 2008 Lions for the most definitive possible proof. However, history also tells us that in the third preseason game, the “eye test” of starters versus starters, starters versus backups, and overall quality is perfectly valid.

Let’s take the lesson history gives us, then. Let’s wipe the slate of the first two games clean. Let’s see what the Lions can bring to bear, and how they handle the onslaught from Boston. Let’s see Matthew Stafford face the blitz, and Ndamukong Suh chase Tom Brady. I’m ready to see just what these Lions are made of. Are you?

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new england patriots,matthew stafford,tom brady,ndamukong suh,preseason

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Haunted By Hope: The Ghosts of Lions Past

So here’s the headline on Tom Kowalski’s latest mailbag:

Three reasons why the Detroit Lions have 'real' hope this year

Those quotes express life as a Lions fan. When has our hope been real? When have the Lions truly been building something worthwhile? When has it all been a fraud? What’s the tipping point between being sure success is right around the corner, and living in a fantasyland?

History sees only the scoreboard; many insist it’s the only real metric. In this respect Jim Schwartz’s Lions have yet to eclipse Rod Marinelli’s, or Steve Mariucci’s. In fact, of the eight non-interim Lions head coaches in my lifetime, only Marty Mornhinweg and Daryl Clark failed to notch at least one 6-win season. At this point, the 2011 Lions are no different than the 2008 Lions, or the 2005 Lions, or 1998, or 1996, or . . . All rode on waves of exceeded expectations from the year before, all were full of reasons to hope, and all took a unexpected step back—or an unimaginable plunge into the abyss.

It’s hard to forget these hopes, these expectations; it’s the unexpected flipside of my role as the Flamekeeper. My constant vigil and long perspective allows me to accept harsh disappointment, internalize it, and keep cheering. Yet, when I’ve been convinced the Lions were on a forkless Yellow Brick Road to success, and they’ve failed, it’s stuck with me. These collapsed Lions teams, these unmade dynasties-in-the-making, they haunt me like ghosts.

In the NFL, success and failure balance on the edge of a knife. I’ve pointed before at October 2, 2005 as the day Mariucci’s Lions were undone. When five years of kitting the Lions’ roster together by the 49ers’ pattern unravelled:

It was Harrington’s first signature comeback drive, an efficient 81-yard march ending with a well-placed 12-yard touchdown pass—that got taken away by review. Despite the play being ruled a touchdown on the field, and the ball being in Pollard’s hands while he was in bounds, the ref overturned the call, and the Lions’ season momentum evaporated.

Obviously, Joey Harrington was not then, never became, and likely never would have become a great NFL quarterback. But flip that one bit from “0” to “1”, and instead of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Falcons sealing Mariucci’s fate, it’d have been the first time the Lions dipped below .500. Yes, that’s right: if that touchdown doesn’t get called back, the Lions carry a .500 or better record into Thanksgiving.

Instead, it all fell apart. With fans publicly, and teammates privately, incensed with Harrington’s subpar play, Mariucci didn’t support his quarterback. Instead, he made plain his frustration with Harrington, and propped up Jeff Garcia at every opportunity. Mariucci’s failure to groom Harrington into a winner—and by extension, failure to make Millen look good—cost Mooch his job.

In an alternate universe somewhere, the Mariucci Lions worked. Charles Rogers’ collarbone held together, Roy Williams remained a terrifying big-play threat, and Mike Williams developed into a stalwart possession receiver [Ed.—Heck, that happened in this universe]. Joey Harrington became the triggerman for an offense bristling with diverse weapons. Space was opened up in the front seven for Kevin Jones to work his magic. A solid scoring defense, and exceptional special teams units, rounded out a team you could rely to win about 59.1% of its games—just as Mariucci did in San Francisco.

I loved that team. The hometown coach, the star wideout I partied with in college, cerebral, misfit quarterback I always said I’d be were I born into a 6’-4”, 240-pound body with a rocket arm. I believed that team was on its way—just as I believe this team is, too. I had more doubts in 2008 and 2005 than I have in 2011, but I knew the Lions were on the path to success. For every nice thing an analyst has said about Jim Schwartz, I can someone citing Mariucci’s track record, or claiming they’d run through a brick wall for Marinelli after interviewing him. We can wax philosophical until we’re blue in the face, and we can cite Statistical Great Leaps Forward—but if the Lions go 5-11 this season, all of the optimism this offseason will seem just as ludicrous as me claiming Mariucci was a bad call away from taking the Lions to the promised land.

Look, I know the Lions are doing it right this time. I know Jim Schwartz was an excellent hire. I know the Lions are going to make the playoffs this year. But don’t forget, Joey Harrington once knew he could play in this league . . . I and knew he was right.

“The Young Guns of The NFL.” Drew Brees, Michael Vick, and Tom Brady, all getting second billing to Joey Ballgame—it makes us shake our head now, but it made our heads spin then. Was it madness to hope the Lions were building something great? Foolishness? To borrow a phrase, audacity? Or was it something real, something true, unjustly undone by the pernicious whims of fate and a razor-thin margin for error?

I can’t mull this over without considering the reverse: what if the Lions are successful this year, and it’s not for real? What if fortune and variance smile on the Lions, and they make a deep playoff run—followed by years of mediocrity? What if this is all the prelude to another Fontes era, where tantalizing tastes of glory are chased with bitter failure, year after year after year? How cruelly will that Lions team haunt us?

As we speak of madness and fantasy worlds, let me quote the great Albus Dumbledore who said “It is our choices that define us, Harry, far more than our abilities.” It’s our choice to make of the Lions what we will. The battle between Optimists and Pessimists has raged on Lions message boards since there’s been an Internet, and it rages still. Anyone can point to any number of reasons to hope, just as anyone can point to any number of reasons to believe it “when they see it.” I choose to hope, and so that hope is real.

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Dré Bly is Not a Cancer (He’s a Gemini)

One of the interesting things about the blogosphere is the “echo chamber” effect.  In  media, the “echo chamber” is a phenomenon where a rumor makes its way to a media source, who shares it or alludes to it, some media outlets report the rumor, many media outlets report on reports of the rumor, and eventually the sheer volume of reports bouncing off of each other become (presumptive) truth.  An example: the IrishCentral.com report that  Brian Kelly would be hired at Notre Dame, which got picked up by the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, and then the Detroit News, and then they all reported each other reporting this report that, as far as anyone knew, was only a solid guess by some dude’s alias—Sean O’Shea—at a website about everything Irish.  Not everything Notre Dame Fighting Irish, just . . . Irish.

Brian at MGoBlog completely blew up everyone involved in the O’Shea/Kelly echo chamber incident at the time, and deservedly so.  This, though, is an example of the blogging version of an “echo chamber”: since many blogs analyze news rather than report news, one blog will react to another, yet another will react to the other’s reaction, and pretty soon you have analysis of analysis of analysis of analysis . . . whether that’s better or worse than Sean O’Shea taking a well-informed shot in the dark that ricochets all over the media is debatable.

On Sunday, Tom Kowalski at Mlive.com broke down Dré Bly, as he’s done for many key/interesting Lions this offseason.  Besides some cogent, rational analysis of his skills and how they’ve aged, Killer addressed Bly’s character:

There is a notion that Bly might be something of a lockerroom cancer, but just the opposite is true. More than 90 percent of the people in the organization believed the same thing Bly did. Harrington was far from the only reason the Lions were having their issues but, because of his position, Harrington was at the center of it.

Michael David Smith over at ProFootballTalk read Killer’s Bly piece, and posted his reaction take within a few hours:

“For starters, if 90 percent of the people in the Lions' organization really agreed with Bly that ‘Millen did a great job drafting the guys,’ well, then I don't even know what to say . . .”

“None of this is to say that Harrington was a good quarterback in Detroit. He wasn't. But he was far from the only problem. And if 90 percent of the Lions' locker room in 2005 thought Harrington was the "whole problem," that just shows what a clueless group of players the Lions had. Now they've brought one of those clueless players back.”

Well, let’s hope analysis is more like parfaits, and less like onions . . . or ogres.

Let’s re-read that last sentence of Killer’s: “Harrington was far from the only reason the Lions were having their issues but, because of his position, Harrington was at the center of it.”  Yes, because of his position.  Because of his salary.  Because of his repeated failure to progress within the offense.  Because his head coach wanted nothing to do with him, and never did.  Because the front office ceded to the coach’s demands to bring in Jeff Garcia.  Because Jeff Garcia got hurt and blew chunks.  Because Matt Millen refused to admit his mistake.  Because Millen compounded his mistake over and over and over again by refusing to admit it.

Quarterbacks the lynchpin of a football team.  They touch the ball on every offensive play.  Great quarterbacking can elevate mediocre teams to the very summit of the NFL, and bad quarterback play makes everything else irrelevant.  Consequently, quarterbacks are lightning rods for public praise and criticism.  No NFL player will ever be as worshipfully adored as Brett Favre was by Green Bay—and perhaps none will be as viciously despised as Favre now is by Green Bay.

Joey Harrington wasn’t just a quarterback, he was a number three overall draft pick quarterback.  He was a franchise savior, a harbinger and herald of bright futures and blue skies.  He was paid lavishly, he was handed the the keys to the franchise—and he was absolutely unwanted.  The fans didn’t want him.  His teammates didn’t want him.  His coach didn’t want him, either (Marty Mornhinweg, on that fateful draft day, told Kowalski he was behind Harrington’s selection--but later admitted he was flim-flamming).

Not only did Harrington’s failure to click get earn Mornhinweg an awkward dismissal, Matt Millen’s pet project got Steve Mariucci run as well.  With all the drafts from 2003-2005 focusing on “giving Harrington weapons,” and not, for example, restocking the defense, a team that was finally starting to move in a positive direction got dragged back down to the bottom.

"WHAT?" you say. "Positive direction?  During the Millen Era?" Mr. David Smith’s skepticism above not withstanding . . . yeah, positive direction.  In 2004, the Lions had the 18th-best scoring defense in the NFL—which is only mediocre, but it was the last time the Lions’ defense looked nearly so good.  It was also the second-closest thing to a winning season the Lions got in the Aughts.  The 2004 season included a 4-2 start, two road wins, and a season sweep of the Chicago Bears.  Six of the ten losses were by a touchdown or less!  Yes, there was definitely positive momentum heading into 2005.

So what happened?  First, a nice opening win against the Packers—then a horrific 5-INT Harrington implosion against the Bears.  There was an only-the-Lions-get-screwed-like-this Week 3 bye to marinate on it . . . and then, a robbery.  Man, oh man, if I’d been blogging back then, you folks would have needed eye bleach to wash out the vicious, nasty things I’d have written about the Buccaneers’ 17-13 “defeat” of the Lions.

It was Harrington’s first signature comeback drive, an efficient 81-yard march ending with a well-placed 12-yard touchdown pass—that got taken away by review.  Despite the play being ruled a touchdown on the field, and the ball being in Pollard’s hands while he was in bounds, the ref overturned the call, and the Lions’ season momentum evaporated. 

Obviously, Joey Harrington was not then, never became, and likely never would have become a great NFL quarterback.  But flip that one bit from “0” to “1”, and instead of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Falcons sealing Mariucci’s fate, it’d have been the first time the Lions dipped below .500.  Yes, that’s right: if that touchdown doesn’t get called back, the Lions carry a .500 or better record into Thanksgiving.

Instead, it all fell apart.  With fans publicly, and teammates privately, incensed with Harrington’s subpar play, Mariucci didn’t support his quarterback.  Instead, he made plain his frustration with Harrington, and propped up Jeff Garcia at every opportunity.  Mariucci’s failure to groom Harrington into a winner—and by extension, failure to make Millen look good—cost Mooch his job.  Dré Bly speaking this fact aloud didn’t make him a cancer—it made him honest.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,profootballtalk.com,dré bly,matt millen,mlive.com,michael david smith

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The Third Time’s the Charm? Dre Bly is a Lion, Again

The first time I wanted Dré Bly to be a Lion was in 1999.  Recent top draft picks Terry Fair and Kevin Abrams were on the roster—but neither seemed to be on track for stardom, and the Lions have always needed as much cornerback help as they could get.  Besides, Bly’s resume as a playmaker was absolutely astonishing.  From the Dré Bly Wikipedia entry:

In his redshirt freshman season at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), Bly received all-American honors. He is only one of five players in NCAA history to achieve this honor as a freshman (Tony Dorsett, Herschel Walker, Bjorn Merten, and Marshall Faulk being the others) [1].

Bly was the only football player in UNC and ACC history to receive consensus 1st team All-America honors three times in his college career. In his sophomore year, he was one of three finalists for the Bronko Nagurski National Defensive Player of the Year Award. Bly held the ACC record for career interceptions (20).

Regrettably, the Lions did not draft Bly.  They traded at least their second- and fifth-round pick (historians disagree) to the Dolphins to move up to the 27th slot.  Once there, they took mountainous right tackle Aaron Gibson of Wisconsin.  Bly and his surprisingly slow 40 time (4.51) slid into the second round, where the St. Louis Rams pulled the trigger at the 41 slot.

The second time I wanted Dré Bly to become a Lion was in 2003, when his four-year rookie deal expired.  After two years straight years of riding the pine for a Super Bowl team, Bly finally got his shot at the big time in 2001, and didn’t disappoint.  In 16 games, and 4 starts, Bly had 6 interceptions, and returned two of them for scores.  Bly also saw extensive use as a punt returner starting in ‘01.

In ‘02, Bly ascended to a full-time starting role—and while his INT numbers dipped to 2, he defensed 18 passes, forced 4 fumbles, and recorded 54 solo tackles.  In short, as they say in the business, he made himself a lot of money.  To be specific, he made a lot of William Clay Ford’s money: a five-year, twenty-four million dollar contract, six million of which came up front.  I’d gotten my wish.

On the surface, Bly’s four years here were a success: 19 interceptions, 38 passes defensed, and two Pro Bowl appearances.  Yet, injury hampered his play; he missed nine games in four years.  Further, his gambling style resulted in negative plays, as well as positive ones.  Here’s a notable one, from his days in Denver:

Of course, before Bly was traded to the Broncos for George Foster and Tatum “Boxer Thief” Bell, he took a stand for recently-fired coach Steve Mariucci:

"If we'd had production on offense, in particular the quarterback position, Mooch wouldn't have been fired.  If Jeff Garcia hadn't gotten hurt, we wouldn't be in this position today.  Mooch wouldn't have gotten fired.  We're all at fault, but I just feel like Joey [Harrington]'s been here four years, and being the No. 3 pick in the draft, he hasn't given us anything.  He hasn't given us what the third pick in the draft should give us."

For this, Bly took quite a bit of heat.  After all, here he was, taking a public and private stand against the team’s quarterback, blaming him for their coach’s dismissal.  Right or wrong (and, in hindsight, he was more right than wrong), that’s something you just don’t do.  He bounced from Detroit to Denver, then from Denver to San Francisco—and, in the words of Eminem and Phil Zaroo, we forgot about Dré.

The third time I wanted Dré Bly to be a Lion, I didn’t even know it; I’d merely been calling for the Lions to add a decent, veteran cover corner.  Well, late on Friday, the Lions announced they’d signed Bly to a two-year deal.  Quoth the ever-quotable cornerback:

I feel like I played my best ball here in Detroit.  I feel like it's home and to come back and have the chance to finish my career where I played my best ball -- where I feel like I'm part of the community -- is a great feeling.

Broncos beat writer Frank Schwab wryly noted on Twitter that having the chance to draw an NFL paycheck must also be a great feeling for Bly.  The results of his stints in Denver and San Francisco were mixed, but unlike here, they were remembered more for the negative plays than the positive ones.

For what it’s worth, Niners fans seem sad to see him go; they see the secondary as a potential problem, and Bly as a good nickel/decent #2.  Top-notch 49ers writer Matt Maiocco said that Bly’s lack of physicality was a poor fit for their scheme—and according to Maiocco’s team sources, Bly’s attitude and declining speed also factored into his release.

What does this all mean for the Lions?  Bly is, by far, the most experienced corner on the roster—and, presuming he hasn’t declined too much, should still be one of the most physically talented, as well.  Jim Schwartz does prefer a more aggressive, jamming cover corner—but all of the Lions’ current corners fit that mold, and they’re either too inexperienced or insufficiently skilled to play deep man coverage.  That may be all that Bly can do at this point, cover a receiver downfield—but it’s the one thing the Lions needed most.

I have no idea whether Bly will enter the season as the #1 corner, or if he’ll be cut before the season starts.  I could believe either scenario, but I’d suspect something in between, leaning more towards “Bly starts at least two games for the Lions by the end of the season.”  No matter what happens, though, this is a halfway-decent attempt at addressing the Lions’ biggest flaw, and in July that’s difficult to do.  Here’s hoping, indeed, that the third time is the charm.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,dré bly,san francisco 49ers

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Neither Rain nor Snow nor sleet . . . Post-Draft Mailbag!

Two weeks after the NFL draft, we’ve had some time to digest, to mull, to ruminate . . . and now, I’ll take some time to postulate, regurgitate, and bloviate.  First, two weeks hence, the annual NFL Draft “silly season” seems like a bad nightmare.  People were talking about the Lions dealing for Albert Haynesworth, and the Browns moving up for Sam Bradford, like actual things that might actually happen.  How ridiculous does that seem now?

I've always used this rule of thumb: whatever the "consensus" is two weeks before the draft is most likely what will happen. Therefore:

The Rams will rectify their smoking crater at quarterback, and draft Sam Bradford.

The Lions, despite clearly wanting to trade down, won't have a partner. They'll happily take Ndamukong Suh, they just won't be happy about his contract.

The Buccaneers will giddily take whichever of the DTs makes it out of the top 3.

The Redskins will draft Chris Samuels' eventual replacement, and Jon Jansen's next temporary replacement, at 1.4--either Okung or Williams, whomever they fancy.

The Chiefs will either continue rebuilding their incredible offensive line of the past decade with a left tackle, or address their odious secondary with Eric Berry.

Yeah, pretty much.

I’ve gotten some nice email in the aftermath of the draft, so I figured I’d answer the burning questions while they’re still . . . uh, burning.  First up, Beau asks:

I'm one of those lions fans who was on the not so fired up side of the Best pick. After watching some highlight film I'm trying to have a change of heart. Best seems to have great speed and vision and seems to give 110% every time he touches the ball, but he's just so dang small. I could he him catching a screen or bootleg or even kick returning but an every down between the tackles back??? I'm not so sure. What are your thoughts on Best? How will he be used??

First of all, Jahvid is listed at 5’-10”, 199.  Barry Sanders was generously listed at 5’-8”, 180 [UPDATE: several commenters correctly have cried foul: Barry measured 5'-7 5/8", 203 pounds at the 1989 combine].  Even if Best didn’t have ideal size for an NFL speed back, which he does, I’ve never believed in the generally accepted truism that small backs are injury-prone.  Warrick Dunn spent over a decade running hard between the tackles and rarely got hurt, while big, powerful backs like Brandon Jacobs and Stephen Davis have struggled mightily with injuries.

Kevin Smith is theoretically on track to be completely healthy by the start of the season, but “completely healthy” and “peak form” are two different things.  Silent Bob brings a lunchpail mentality to his job, and he’s been rehabbing hard—but you can’t blow three knee ligaments to shreds at the tail end of one season, and be at the top of your game by the start of the next.  Smith will have a role to play, and an important one—but right now Best is the lead dog, and will be until someone takes that collar from him.

I don’t think Best will get 30 carries a game, but only because that’s not really the way the NFL works anymore.  I could see Best getting 15-25 carries, while Smith gets 5-15 depending on his health, effectiveness, and the game plan.  I could also see the two of them on the field at the same time—and no, not with Smith at fullback.

The next email comes from Daniel, who was completely stoked about the draft:

I was reading some of the latest posts on your site, and obviously saw your writings about the draft. On that point, this is the best I have felt coming out of the draft weekend EVER . . . . These six selections, in addition to our trades, make for a truly excellent draft. It has to be in the running for best in the entire NFL. Here's to the Lions in 2010! RESTORE THE ROAR!!!

I didn't quote the whole email; Daniel (rather effectively) broke down every single pick, and came up with much love for every one of them.  I, honestly, have been more excited about a Lions draft; I was a huge Barry Sanders fan when he was in college; in like second grade I was such an Oklahoma State Cowboy booster I made T. Boone Pickens blush.  When he came to the Lions it was like a decade of unbridled glee.

I had a similar level of stoked-ness after the 2003 draft: Charles Rogers, a kid I went to State with, a dude I’d hung out with, and a phenomenally talented weapon that would be the Marvin Harrison to Joey Harrington’s Peyton Manning.  Boss Bailey, the Next Derrick Brooks; Cory Redding, Shaun Rogers’ former linemate; Artose Pinner, the SEC offensive player of the year, Torry Holt’s little brother, to finally help nail down the secondary . . . I was probably more thrilled after that draft than this one.

Part of it is just my age: at twenty-eight, and a rabid draftnik for the balance, I know that half these guys are going to wash out.  At this time in 2020, Tim Toone could be announcing his retirement after ten-year run as one of the NFL’s best possession receivers, and Ndamukong Suh could be yet another in a line of DL hype balloons long burst: Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, DeWayne Robertson, Chris Long . . .

I’m not saying that either of those things will happen, or are even likely.  I’m just saying, it’s almost impossible for all six of these players to become significant contributors to the team; it just doesn't happen that way.

Don't get me wrong, I AM excited about this draft, and I DO think the Lions did exceptionally well.  But there are too many questions about Spievey and Fox, and too few picks after Suh and Best, for me to be running naked through the streets about what an incredible, unbelievable, no-doubt-about-it-we-got-six-future-starters draft this was. 

The next question actually comes from the newest Lions blogger, Joe Dexter.  Joe’s not new to Detroit sports blogging—check out Motor City Bengals for some of his past work—but he’s now on the masthead at the SideLion Report!  Via Twitter, Joe asked:

Was there any mind boggling picks that didn't make sense to you considering players still available and team needs?

The Jets' entire draft! Of course, I was infuriated by the Jets snaring Kyle Wilson; a perfect fit for the Lions, and an salve for all of their cornerback wounds.  The Jets already have Darrell Revis and Antonio Cromartie, so either Cro or Wilson will platooning, or they took the most complete corner in the draft to be their nickel guy.  Fellas, I don’t know if you were paying attention, but you got to the AFC Championship game on the strength of your defense, and your beleaguered rookie quarterback won’t even get to use his best weapon until five weeks into the season.

They made up for it a bit with OT/OG Vladimir Ducasse, though he’s a project and they needed an impact player.  But then, Joe McKnight?  With Tomlinson and Greene already in the fold?  Why didn’t they  just hang on to Leon Washington, who’s the same player, only better?

The Chargers letting Tomlinson go, then trading way up for Ryan Mathews, then totally failing to address the interior line was mind-boggling.  Look at how both Tomlinson’s and Sproles’s per-carry numbers fell off the face of the Earth last year, even as Rivers played well and Vincent Jackson finally had that breakout season.  The holes just weren’t there, and they won’t be there for Mathews either.

I have no idea what the Bills are going to do with C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, no quarterback, no offensive line, and a good 4-3 defense's talent playing in a 3-4 alignment.  The Bills then reached for the DT they need but don’t have in the second round . . . we’ve seen how well reaching for rookies in the second round, because they fit your new defensive scheme, works.  This is going to be a total disassembly-and-reassembly by Gailey, and I don’t think anyone believes he’s that kind of a franchise architect.

Jermaine Gresham's a tremendous prospect—but the Bengals' OC, Bob Bratkowski, has absolutely no use for him.  No Bengals TE has caught more than 31 balls since Bratkowski took over signal-calling duties, so what they’re going to do with a pure pass-catching tight end, I don’t know.

Finally, Dustin (@Dustin_aka_D on Twitter) asked:

do you think any of the Millen era coaches could win with the new front office? Were there good coaches in bad situations?

Marty Mornhinweg, many felt at the time, was an up-and-coming young QB coach, on track to become an excellent offensive coordinator, and maybe someday even a head coach—when the Lions hired him as a head coach.  He landed as an offensive assistant in Philly, and slowly moved his way up the ranks to offensive coordinator.  If Kevin Kolb explodes in 2010, Marty Mornhinweg is going to be a hot candidate in 2011 or 2012.

Clearly, however, he was nowhere near ready for the top job back in 2001, and some of his mistakes—like opening traning camp by aping Mike Holmgren’s dramatic Harley ride—were borne of that inexperience.  Since he was only ever a placeholder for Steve Mariucci, I don’t think Mornhinweg could possibly have been a long-term success here at the time . . . but I do think he’ll be either an excellent OC, or a reasonably good head coach, at some point in his career.

Steve Mariucci was an excellent coach, and he absolutely got railroaded here.  His performance was handcuffed to Joey Harrington’s, though, and it’s clear that he had no regard whatsoever for Joey.  You could see, through Mooch’s managing of Harrington and Jeff Garcia, that he thought plugging in Garcia would provide an immediate upgrade, obvious to all—unfortunately, Garcia was hurt, and wasn't that great to begin with.

Ultimately, I think Mooch was a poor fit.  His NFL head coaching success came at San Francisco, at the tail end of the great dynasty.  Everything about the organization dripped class and excellence, and the roster was full of savvy veterans who’d spent their entire careers in the same system Mariucci was coaching.  In Detroit, Mooch did all the little things really, really well . . . but he was given a roster of total greenhorns who had no idea how to play professional football.  The Lions needed a forceful leader and a teaching coach, not a polished professional who trusted his players to be the same.

If *this* front office had hired Mooch?  I think it would have worked.  Look how the front office has gone out and gotten guys like KVB and Burleson, players who were clearly picks of the coaching staff.  Look how they’ve dramatically cleaned house, and addressed obvious needs with right-price players.

There’ve been no “Ooh, shiny!” picks like Boss Bailey—where a pressing need was “addressed” by handing the starting job to the prospect with the best combine numbers.  Further, there’s been no pressure to play the players that were “management picks”.  Note that when Derrick Williams made the least of his opportunities in training camp, he wasn’t promoted to the starting lineup midseason, with a grumpy “no comment” from Schwartz.

Going forward, if Mooch could take over a franchise where the WCO is in place, where he could either sign or draft his starting quarterback, and the front office is both competent and fully behind him, he could make a glorious return.  However, I think he’s come to realize that he’s pretty damned good at this TV analyst thing—and his wife and children, who always preferred life on the Left Coast, are happier this way.  I can’t fault the guy for making that decision.

Rod Marinelli?  I’m told he’s a great defensive line coach.

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,nfl draft,steve mariucci,rod marinelli,marty mornhinweg,jahvid best

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