2009 NSS Joint Draft

The NSS Joint Draft (as it's now called) is officially underway over at Next Season Sports.  You can see my pick/ analysis/justfication just a couple posts down, but I threw up a 'diet' version over there, too.  I really do think anyone reading this site should pay close tabs on how that mock is rolling out; judging from the quality of writers they have, and the first-cut draft of it a month ago, this could be one of the most spot-on mocks you'll see this year.  I really have been honored to participate in it, and thanks again go to Steve at Detroit Lions Weblog for getting me in touch with the webmaster over at NSS, Aaron.

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NSS Interblog Mock Draft

The Next Season Sports Interblog Mock Draft is getting ready for its second-go round--which means we're starting at the top once again. This time, Steve from Detroit Lions Weblog and I will flip spots--I'll take the 1.1, and he'll handle the 1.20.  It hasn't been posted yet, because Aaron over at NSS is trying to corral all the picks up front, but I assure you it's underway.  With the entire field of prospects available to me, I selected this guy:

It was a really difficult choice. For me, if I am in Mayhew's chair, I am looking at making a guaranteed MINIMUM of a five-year, thirty-five million-dollar investment in a dude who may or may not be able to legally buy beer. This is absolutely walking the tightrope as a GM; getting this pick right means a you add a perennial Pro Bowler to a team desperate for playmakers. Getting it wrong means you probably seal the fate of the team, the coaches, the franchise, and yourself for the next five years. It seems a little early and often in the Mayhew Era to be calling for do-or-die moments, but this pick is just as crucial to the Lions' future as the head coach hire.  

What is the "safe" pick? Well, if you look at the recent history of top ten QB picks . . . it's disastrous. Basically once you get beyond Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers, every top ten QB pick of the past ten years has been an abject failure. If you look at the LTs selected, there have been a mix of "good" ones and "bad" ones--but even the "bad" ones (D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Robert Gallery) have developed into solid contributors. So, of the two positions most commonly selected at 1.1, QB or LT, there is an overwhelming case to be made that the LT is the safer pick.

Moreover, while great QBs can and do come from all over the first round, and some times even later, elite LTs pretty much only come from the top ten picks in the draft. LTs who have the potential to be the next Orlando Pace or Johnathan Ogden always go in the top five or ten--and once they are drafted they either hit, and retire with the team that drafted them, or miss, and get shifted to guard--and maybe eventually released after the second contract.  

There are several excellent LTs to choose from at this #1 overall spot, and ideally, the Lions won't be sitting at 1.1 next year. So why would I pass up the (I hope) last-for-a-long-time opportunity to take a franchise LT? Well, let me present a few reality checks:

* the Lions' starting linebackers are, of this moment:

SLB - Alex Lewis, career special teamer, 6'-0", 228#
MLB - Jordon Dizon, 2nd year guy, lost rookie year to injury, 6'-0", 229#
WLB - Ernie Sims, Pro Bowl potential but pedestrian reality, 5'-11", 220#

That would be an unacceptably small LB corps for a Big Ten school, let alone a NFL team.

* The Lions allowed 32.3 points per game last year, by far the worst in the NFL.

* The Lions allowed 2,754 yards rushing to opponents last year, on 536 carries--that's an average of 5.1 ypc.

* The Lions were passed against fewer times than any team in the NFL, yet allowed the 27th most yardage.

* Opposing passers' average QB rating was 110.9. No, that's not a typo, one hundred and ten point nine.

Okay, so, get it? The defense was beyond atrocious last year; it was historically bad. Statistically speaking, the defense was dead last in nearly every category. On top of that, the Lions let starting MLB Paris Lenon, and starting SLB Ryan Nece walk out the door as free agents. So, basically, the LB position was a lethal weakness in 2008, and it is significantly worse now.

It's true that the OL has been a sore spot with Lions fans since the freak paralysis of G Mike Utley in 1991, and the tragic accidental death of G Eric Andolsek in the ensuing offseason. However, there are multiple ways to address the issue. This draft has several excellent interior line prospects in the late-first, early-second round window. If we were to draft, say, Cal's Alex Mack with the 2.1, he would be able to immediately compete for a starting guard spot, as well as back up Dominic Raiola for now--and of course he could eventually replace Raiola once he develops. Further, given the run on tackles in the 2008 draft, and the bumper crop of tackles in the 2009 draft, there are going to be 9 or 10 teams that just blew a first-rounder on a tackle when the 2010 draft rolls around. Assuming the Lions don't pull a miraculous worst-to-first (a safe assumption), they should be drafting in the 5-15 range next season, which is a perfectly fine spot to find a tackle, or trade up to get one. Assuming I'm right that there is an unusal lack of demand, the Lions could well take care of the interior OL directly this year, and get their LT of the future next season.

Okay, so why Curry?  Curry's incredible size (6'-2", 254#), speed (4.56) and intelligence could make him the best Lion on the defensive side of the ball from day one.  Besides desperately needing Curry's production, the Lions' defense has even greater need of a leader.  Ernie Sims plays with lots of passion, but he doesn't have the gift of inspiring other men to play like he does.  Curry could immediately fill that role.  Finally, Schwartz has been saying all along that he doesn't want "the right position", he wants "the right person": a good kid, a hard worker, someone who's both athletically elite and a remarkable individual--and he's pointed at Megatron as the perfect example of that. Between his insightful blogging, (you really do have to click that link and read it!) his committment to supporting his family, and his jaw-dropping skill set, I really think that Curry is "the right person".

We went to a place called Palomino, across the street from the hotel, with the head coach, Jim Schwartz, and a couple of other coaches. Mostly, they just wanted to know what kind of person I am because they already know the type of player I am. They wanted to know if I could handle the pressure of being a number one pick. I told them I was willing and ready. Then they wanted to know if I was the person and player they could build a defense around. I told them I was ready to lead their defense next season. I don't know yet if I convinced them, but I think I did a pretty good job. We'll find out soon enough.

Indeed we will, Aaron.

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NSS Interblog Mock Draft: Round Two!

The Next Season Sports Interblog mock draft, the subject of much M&I (that's Murder and Intrigue, for those reading who are neither me nor my mother), continues on!  Round 2 is here:

For the second round, since the Lions don't have two second-round picks, my cohort Steve from Detroit Lions Weblog and I collaborated on the initial pick of the second round.  Making this selection was tough; as I whined about with the 1.20, the board had fallen about as poorly as possible for the Lions.  All of the linemen and linebackers that might fall to 1.20 were gone by then, and some of the remainders I thought might be there at 2.1 were also gone.  After a few back-and-forths, we agreed there were two real possibilities: Wake Forest CB Alphonso Smith, and USC LB Clay Matthews.

Smith possesses all the tools of a prime time NFL cover corner: blazing speed, great short-area burst, confidence, and a nose for the ball.  Everyone's favorite free draft site, Scott Wright's Draft Countdown, has this to say about Alphonso Smith:

"Was a four-year starter in the ACC...First team All-American as a senior...Was named All-ACC as a junior and a senior...Holds the ACC record for career interceptions...A true playmaker and ballhawk who will make quarterbacks pay for their mistakes...There isn't much not to like about this guy other than his lack of prototypical height...Would get selected much earlier if he were 2 or 3 inches taller."

To make a long story short, Smith looks like Dre' Bly all over again, minus (offically speaking) one inch of height.  5'-9" is really small, especially since that's an "official" height.  We'll see what happens when he weighs in at the combine, but for now the height gives me pause.  Scott and I were wearing our Martin Mayhew/Shack Harris caps (golly, who was who?), trying to draft as we think the Lions will.  It's been stated multiple times by Mayhew and Schwartz that the Lions are looking to add size, especially on defense, and with Michael Johnson added somewhere in the front seven, we partially addressed that need.  However, since it's now looking like the Lions will primarily run a 4-3 set, Johnson would fit into more of a SDE/WDE rotational mold . . . 6'-7" 260 is truly enormous for an LB in a 4-3, and I don't think he has the coverage skills to play Mike or Sam--and the Will spot belongs to Ernie Sims.  Therefore, there's still a need for size in the middle of the defense.

Clay Matthews goes about 6'-3", 240--and though he played outside at USC, that was only because of the presence of gamebreaking he-beast Rey Maualuga in the middle.  Matthews could play inside or outside, from everything I've read.  He is fleet of  foot, an extremely hard worker, very strong, a great tackler, has a knack for getting after the passer, and excels on special teams.  He's not supremely athletic side-to-side, but his grit, strength, instincts, and motor more than make up for it.  It's tough to say whether playing next to two supremely talented athletes in Maualuga and Brian Cushing--both of whom are first-round locks--made him look much better than he is, or robbed him of some much-deserved attention.  The final piece of the Clay Matthews puzzle is that he's the son of Clay Matthews (17-year NFL vet), nephew of Bruce Matthews (NFL Hall of Famer and 19-year vet), and grandson of Clay Matthews Sr., (also an NFL veteran).  This guy's bloodlines are absolutely impeccable, and if he's half the player his father or uncle were, he'll be a valuable addition to the roster.  As Steve said, if this guy is the pick, the "bromance" between him and Lions fans will bloom . . .

In the end, we chose Smith.  One of the justifications for my controversial selection of Josh Freeman in the first round, was that I thought Smith might still be here for us at this pick--and he is.  Smith is also a dangerous return man, so even if he doesn't start, or begins his career as a nickel back, he'll be have a chance to make an immediate impact in another desperate need area.  Moreover, Smith possesses the attitude--if not the frame--to be excellent in run support.  Despite his size, he's very strong and physical . . . I think he needs to go to the vet, because his pythons are sick (apologies to Colin Cowherd).  Of course, only time will tell with any of these guys, but I think we got one of the, if not THE, best player available at this spot, and one of the better values so far in this draft--and filled two desperate needs (CB & KR) while doing so!  I think Steve and I got the second round off to a great start, and eagerly anticipate the rest of the round as it rolls on.  Keep your eyes on this space, as there is already talk of starting over from 1.1 once all the combine info is in and folks have had time to digest it . . .

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baby, it's cold outside

Yesterday, I took the minivan out for a desperately-needed car wash.  The family truckster was smothered in a chalky, dingy coat of salt and dirt; three straight rounds of "I'll wash the car when it stops snowing and warms up", only to have niether happen, had taken their toll.  Well, I happened to be out and about, it was a bright, beautiful day, and the little ones always enjoy the big floppy cloths and the "rainbow soap" and the roaring  flamethrower turbine dryers.  With the mercury rising dangerously close to what we Michiganderanians consider T-shirt weather--fifty degrees--it seemed like the perfect thing to do on a lazy Sunday.  Then, I got to the parking lot.

  Fifty other people'd had the exact same idea.  The line for the car wash extended all the way out into the street, and people were just parking in one of the driving lanes with their turn signal on.  Everyone had followed the same thought process I had: beautiful day, been putting it off for months, doing nothing else . . . wash the car.  It's one of the things about the long, cold winter--it synchronizes our thoughts and actions.  It adjusts our expectations.  It makes us thrill for the merest hint of warmth.  It messes with our heads.

It's been funny as this year's NFL Draft Circus puts up the big tent.  The mockers are mocking, the analysis is flowing, and guys are rising and falling up the chart as the only real piece of info anyone has to go on--the Senior Bowl--has created almost unstoppable momentum.  Some of you might remember, I'd identified  B.J. Raji as a guy we should look at with our 1.20 . . . he had a good practice in the Senior Bowl--he was completely invisible in the game--and he's now a lock for the top ten, according to most mocks.  This, despite the fact that he wasn't graded as a top ten guy mostly because of his inconsistency.

It's funny, because with all the Lions fan mocks, comments, analysis, reaction, blogpost, blog comments, forum threads and replies, texts, tweets, and smoke signals, they all say the same things: "we need linemen", "we need corners", and my favorite, "we need five immediate impact players in this draft".  It's the same thing we do every year: we look at the team, and we think about the team we wish it was.  It's part of where we've grown up: we want tough.  We want a vicious, stingy defense.  We want to be stout against the run and relentlessly attack the pass.  We want to control the ball, control the clock, control the game.  Hit people in the mouth so hard they can't hit back.  We all follow the same, reasonable thought process.  We look at the 2008 Lions, and subtract, at least, Mike Furrey, Leigh Bodden, Edwin Mulitalo, and Dan Campbell.  Then we examine the differences between the 2008 Lions and the mythical, "2000 Ravens + QB + Megatron" we wish they were.

Then, we look at the pool of available candidates and start trying to check them off.  Crushing OT: Andre Davis, check.  Dominant MLB: James Laurenitis, check.  Smothering cover corner: D. J. Moore in the second . . . check?  Pair of RB-eating defensive tackles:  Um, maybe we trade up for B.J. Raji?  And, uh, I guess we sign Haynesworth?  You're dreaming.  Double-digit-sack DE?  Brian Orakpo.  Come on, you've already spent your two first-round picks three times.  Well, uhm, uh, is Julius Peppers going to be available?  Not to the Lions he isn't!

Hey, nice to see the National Football Post has been reading and agreeing.  Hey, fellas, what's up?

Seriously though, some of the reaction I've gotten on my Freeman pick in the NSS Interblog Mock Draft has gotten me thinking.  It's funny, because I often take a rap as an "optimist", an "apologist", a "sucker", or even an "idiot" because I never stop cheering for the Lions.  I never call the players bums, I never call the coaches or morons or idiots.  I never loudly proclaim that "I'm done with them", threaten to kill them, or root for the Reaper to come swiftly for Big Willie Style.  But then a lot of the so-called 'realists', the loudest complainers and most aggreived moaners, are right in line with me at the car wash!  We're all in a big herd saying, we need OT, we need DT, we need CB, we need LB, we gotta get five impact players, we need more talent, we gotta get bigger, we need, we gotta, we need, we gotta . . . whoa, whoa, WHOA!  I'm going to say something I never say during the season:

The Lions suck.

They suck, folks!  Our team, the Lions?  They suck out loud.  They blow goats.  You cannot add enough 23-year-old fatsoes to this roster to turn them into the 2000 Ravens.  You have to step back.  You have to take a breath.  Throwing rookies at pressing needs is not going to help--rookies, for the most part, can't fill those needs.  If you need Ray Lewis now, you can draft eleven MLBs and not get the one Patrick Willis that would help.  If you need Jonathan Odgen now, you can draft eleven offensive tackles and not get the one Jake Long that would help.  SO FEW rookies make an immediate impact!  First-rounders play like top starters as an exception, not as a rule.

Well, what about free agency?  Not much better.  This isn't the 90s anymore--good teams aren't shedding veteran starters in their prime for the rest of the league to gobble up.  The great dynasties of this era are all ten or twenty million under the cap.  Nowadays, almost by definition, if free agents were worth the amount of money they're asking for, they'd still be with their original team.

So . . . what, then?  You build for the future, because it's all you can do.  You have to take the players that you want to build up.  That you want to build your team around.  Coming into the 2011 training camp, these players should be the core of the team.  But coming into the 2009 camp, these players should--and will--be learning, and growing.  One or two of them might catch fire and contribute right away--but they will be hope for the future, not the foundation of a contending team.  We can't grade the players drafted this April by what happens on the field this September.

What we WILL get to grade, though, is the way Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand handle this draft.  We can see how they feed the roster, what positions need attention, if they appear to be working with the coaches, if they make trades, if they stand pat, how they react to the board unfolding in front of them.  THAT is what we should really be anxious to see in April--not eleven new Lions, but the performance of the men charged with drafting, teaching, coaching, and leading them.

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mock lion soup: please don't send it back!

So . . . I made my pick over at the Next Season Sports interblog mock draft.

Whoo boy, did it not go as I planned.  As I explained over there, I believe strongly that the Lions are going to look to get bigger up front and through the middle of their defense.  DT and ILB are the two biggest needs--you cannot stop the run with Cory Redding and Landon Cohen in front of Paris Lenon.  It's just not going to happen.  Unfortunately the DT everyone can't get enough of, B.J. Raji, went at 1.10.  The next best DT is Peria Jerry, and not only is he a undersized three-technique DT, he went at 1.19!  There are no other DT's I'd consider.  ALL of the ILBs were gone: Curry, Maualuga, Cushing if you shift him over, and Laurenitis--who I actually think will be the 1.20 if he's there, BTW.  Since Steve from www.detroitlionsblog.com drafted 6'-7", 260# LB/DE Michael Johnson with the first pick, I decided he could flex pretty much anywhere in the front seven except NT in a 3-4 or OLB in a 4-3, and moved on to the next biggest need: Cornerback.  Unfortunately, the top two corners were both gone, including Vontae Davis to the Bears at 18.  I felt that one of the next two corners, Alphonso Smith and D.J. Moore, would be there at the 2.1, so . . . damn.  What next?  I really feel like this is the doomsday scenario for the Lions--there's a bunch of offensive skill position guys here, but nothing the Lions really need--and considering how much they need, that's saying something!  I went with the next most pressing need . . . quarterback of the future:

(photo by Getty Images)

That's right, I took KSU quarterback Josh Freeman, all 6'-6" and 250 pounds of him.  I went into my reasoning quite a bit over at NSS, but basically it's like this: Freeman is the next Culpepper.  He's huge, he's mobile, he's athletic, he's got a gun, he's got a fumbling problem.

Why, if I am such a rabid anti-Cpep guy, would I pick Freeman?  Well, I kind of see "Culpepper" as his downside.  Culpepper never really had to learn to "play QB", since streetball was so effective in both college and the pros.  Culpepper merely shredded I-AA compeition with raw talent, but Freeman was battle-tested against superior Big 12 teams.  Often, Freeman was the only thing going for his Wildcats, leading them in rushing and throwing all over everywhere.  Further, he ran a pro-style offense at KSU--which also featured a significant no-huddle package, proving he can diagnose defenses and run an offense on the field.  Freeman possesses a lot of the indicators for quick success in the NFL (in the mold of Flacco, Ryan, and Roethlisberger).  Yet with no expectations for the Lions in 2009, he can sit and be groomed for a year or two.  Freeman, as a late-first-rounder--as opposed to Stafford as a #1 overall--could easily be billed as a project.  Linehan can teach him to play like he taught Culpepper, maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.  Freeman shouldn't get the kind of "start him now" pressure that Stafford at 1.1 would recieve--and I'd hope the Lions front office and staff would be on the same page about being patient with him.

You know, when it comes to football blogs, a YouTube clip is worth ten thousand words:

Word.

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mock lion soup

Whew!  With the first half of my roster breakdown completed, it's time for some quick site news: I will be one of two blogs representing the Lions in the Next Season Sports (a Seahawks blog with an awesome name) Interblog Mock Draft!

I was invited to participate by Steve at www.detroitlionsblog.com, who writes himself some mean Lions analysis, and the head honcho at NSS, Aaron.  I'll be handling the 20th pick--and let me tell you, the board is not shaping up the way I'd hoped!  I really fear this will play out like last year, where all the Lions' targets go just a little be earlier, and there will be no cookies left for our Lions when the clock strikes 1.20.

Steve bravely handled the 1.1 duties--and fell victim to the ever-fickle swirling winds of Internet draft info!  His selection of freak DE/OLB Michael Johnson of Georgia Tech--currently viewed as a late-first/early-second type by the footbal 'blog glitterati--with the first overall pick raised some eyebrows.  However, Steve was spot-on with his reasoning and thought process.  First, niether he nor I think that Matt Stafford grades out as a #1 Overall Pick kind of quarterback, nor does he possess the consistency, toughness, and leadership that I think Mayhew and Schwartz are looking for (over and above arm strength, 40 time, etc.).  Further, Steve correctly notes that all signs out of Allen Park indicate that they are just fine with Jeff Backus and Gosder the Gozarian at OT, and therefore probably have no desire to shell out cap-busting money for a third OT.  That leaves the Lions with an interesting mix of players to choose from, none standing out, few addressing needs.  I think the Lions' most pressing need is that of a physically dominant DT--however, there is no Big Daddy Wilkinson or Kevin Williams sitting there waiting to be taken.  IMO, the Lions' next most pressing need is that of a legitimate linebacker with size and speed, a big athletic tackler who could fit in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 (as the Lions' base alignment is still up in the air).  Johnson would be a DE/OLB, but I'd look hard at Wake Forest's Aaron Curry, 6'-3", 247, an incredibly fast, athletic, and aggressive linebacker, who could play inside or outside in a 4-3 or 3-4.  He'd be an instant upgrade over Paris Lenon in a 4-3, would be amazing pair with Ernie Sims, and would be a firey leader that could set the tone for the defense--I'm not saying he'll be just as good . . . but he could be the Patrick Willis we DID draft.

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