Three Cups Deep: Lions vs. Rams

Hire Steve Spagnuolo.  Don’t draft Matthew Stafford, wait for Sam Bradford next season.  Pick up Jason Smith instead, and make sure your franchise quarterback will be protected his whole career.  Fix the middle linebacker spot by taking James Laurinaitis in the second.  Next year, after Bradford, take a physical tackle (who could play a little guard) in the second to complete your offensive line.  Pick up a big, physical corner in the third.  Sign O.J. Atogwe to a long-term deal.

At some point over the past two years, most (or many loud) Lions fans were screaming for the Lions to do all of the above.  Incredibly, the Rams took their advice.  At every step of the way in the two franchises’ mutual rebuilding, the Rams have done what the majority (or extremely vocal minority) of Lions fans wanted the Lions to do.  The Rams did all of the above—they hired Spags, took Jason Smith and Little Animal, picked up Rodger Saffold and Jerome Murphy, and re-signed Windsor native FS O.J. Atogwe.  If the Lions had done those things, I bet Mayhew and Schwartz would be even more popular with the fanbase than they are today. 

On Sunday, the Rams visited Ford Field, and the Lions kicked their ass.

The sixty-minute woodshedding the Lions put on the Rams was a thing of beauty; a joyous celebration of victory in progress.  Not only did they get a lead in spectacular fashion, they built it—through consistently excellent play in all three phases of the game, the Lions not only failed to lose the lead, they kept pulling farther away until the final gun scored!  Despite visibly changing mood from “desperately hungry” to “having a good time out there,” the Lions managed to take their foot off the gas without allowing the Rams to catch up.

It’s been said elsewhere that the Lions need to “learn how to win,” need to learn how to play as a team to preserve a victory once it’s been gained.  To use the scoreboard to their advantage, to take control of the game and put it away.  To, once an opponent has been knocked to the ground, put their boot on its throat, and claim victory.  Today, we saw “Learn How to Win” class in session.  I’m not sure the Lions have graduated yet—but they passed their this test with flying colors.

Yesterday was an incredible release; the Lions took their (and our) pent-up frustration out on an unsuspecting opponent.  They brought everything they had to bear on the Rams--and, as is often the case with superior talent and effort--caught a few breaks.  Everything went right for the Lions yesterday; now everything IS right in the world today.  Tomorrow is another story, of course, but let's not think about that now.  On this day, in this moment, the Lions reign victorious--and we rest comfortably in the knowledge that the Lions' leadership has been making excellent choices, with or without our help.

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the mystery of the #1 overall pick

Pertinent "facts" in the case:

1) Tom Kowalski reports that the Lions have begun negotiations with their #1 pick.  The wording of the headline and opening paragraphs suggest that this means the Lions have already settled on a player, but the actual quotes reveal that the Lions are talking to all of the several possible #1 pick candidates . . . the headline is true, just a little misleading (EDIT: as of 4 A.M., the headline and first two paragraphs have been altered to more accurately reflect the situation.  Looks like Tommy got a slap on the wrist from his editor).

2) PFT reported shortly after Tom that there is a persistent rumor that the Lions "are focused in on" USC QB Mark Sanchez, and not Matt Stafford.  That may well be the case, but IMO drafting Sanchez #1 overall would be lunacy.  Between this and the Raji workout, my guess is that the Lions are looking at moving down--or up.

3) "KFFL has learned the Detroit Lions will take Baylor OT Jason  Smith with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft".  This, I believe, is a total shot in the dark by one of the best football news aggregators around.  As far as I know, KFFL is essentially a service that trolls the internet for you, the Fantasy Football player, so you can have all the latest info on transactions, injuries, depth charts, etc.  KFFL doesn't typically break stories because they don't typically have inside info.  In this case, however, they are sticking their neck way, WAY out there.  No comments, no followup, not even a cite of a "team source", just an ESPN-style "KFFL has learned".  You know, dipping my toe into the "new media" has given me tremendous respect for the "old media"--and frankly I'm appalled by this.  You can't just make stuff up, hoping it comes true.  I hope for their sake that they're right on this--and if they're not, I hope there's a strong backlash against KFFL for it.  Any time something like this happens, it puts bloggers back in the "According to Internet reports" ghetto.

As far as my take goes, it's all a smokescreen.  The Lions were always going to put an emphasis on signability-- and as Lewand said in the Killer piece, drafting a six-year deal loaded with guaranteed money when this is the last year of the CBA is playing with fire.  They're going to get started now, play all the candidates off each other, and with luck they'll sign the guy they want (Curry) to a lowball deal.

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NSS Interblog Mock Draft

The Next Season Sports Interblog Mock Draft is getting ready for its second-go round--which means we're starting at the top once again. This time, Steve from Detroit Lions Weblog and I will flip spots--I'll take the 1.1, and he'll handle the 1.20.  It hasn't been posted yet, because Aaron over at NSS is trying to corral all the picks up front, but I assure you it's underway.  With the entire field of prospects available to me, I selected this guy:

It was a really difficult choice. For me, if I am in Mayhew's chair, I am looking at making a guaranteed MINIMUM of a five-year, thirty-five million-dollar investment in a dude who may or may not be able to legally buy beer. This is absolutely walking the tightrope as a GM; getting this pick right means a you add a perennial Pro Bowler to a team desperate for playmakers. Getting it wrong means you probably seal the fate of the team, the coaches, the franchise, and yourself for the next five years. It seems a little early and often in the Mayhew Era to be calling for do-or-die moments, but this pick is just as crucial to the Lions' future as the head coach hire.  

What is the "safe" pick? Well, if you look at the recent history of top ten QB picks . . . it's disastrous. Basically once you get beyond Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers, every top ten QB pick of the past ten years has been an abject failure. If you look at the LTs selected, there have been a mix of "good" ones and "bad" ones--but even the "bad" ones (D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Robert Gallery) have developed into solid contributors. So, of the two positions most commonly selected at 1.1, QB or LT, there is an overwhelming case to be made that the LT is the safer pick.

Moreover, while great QBs can and do come from all over the first round, and some times even later, elite LTs pretty much only come from the top ten picks in the draft. LTs who have the potential to be the next Orlando Pace or Johnathan Ogden always go in the top five or ten--and once they are drafted they either hit, and retire with the team that drafted them, or miss, and get shifted to guard--and maybe eventually released after the second contract.  

There are several excellent LTs to choose from at this #1 overall spot, and ideally, the Lions won't be sitting at 1.1 next year. So why would I pass up the (I hope) last-for-a-long-time opportunity to take a franchise LT? Well, let me present a few reality checks:

* the Lions' starting linebackers are, of this moment:

SLB - Alex Lewis, career special teamer, 6'-0", 228#
MLB - Jordon Dizon, 2nd year guy, lost rookie year to injury, 6'-0", 229#
WLB - Ernie Sims, Pro Bowl potential but pedestrian reality, 5'-11", 220#

That would be an unacceptably small LB corps for a Big Ten school, let alone a NFL team.

* The Lions allowed 32.3 points per game last year, by far the worst in the NFL.

* The Lions allowed 2,754 yards rushing to opponents last year, on 536 carries--that's an average of 5.1 ypc.

* The Lions were passed against fewer times than any team in the NFL, yet allowed the 27th most yardage.

* Opposing passers' average QB rating was 110.9. No, that's not a typo, one hundred and ten point nine.

Okay, so, get it? The defense was beyond atrocious last year; it was historically bad. Statistically speaking, the defense was dead last in nearly every category. On top of that, the Lions let starting MLB Paris Lenon, and starting SLB Ryan Nece walk out the door as free agents. So, basically, the LB position was a lethal weakness in 2008, and it is significantly worse now.

It's true that the OL has been a sore spot with Lions fans since the freak paralysis of G Mike Utley in 1991, and the tragic accidental death of G Eric Andolsek in the ensuing offseason. However, there are multiple ways to address the issue. This draft has several excellent interior line prospects in the late-first, early-second round window. If we were to draft, say, Cal's Alex Mack with the 2.1, he would be able to immediately compete for a starting guard spot, as well as back up Dominic Raiola for now--and of course he could eventually replace Raiola once he develops. Further, given the run on tackles in the 2008 draft, and the bumper crop of tackles in the 2009 draft, there are going to be 9 or 10 teams that just blew a first-rounder on a tackle when the 2010 draft rolls around. Assuming the Lions don't pull a miraculous worst-to-first (a safe assumption), they should be drafting in the 5-15 range next season, which is a perfectly fine spot to find a tackle, or trade up to get one. Assuming I'm right that there is an unusal lack of demand, the Lions could well take care of the interior OL directly this year, and get their LT of the future next season.

Okay, so why Curry?  Curry's incredible size (6'-2", 254#), speed (4.56) and intelligence could make him the best Lion on the defensive side of the ball from day one.  Besides desperately needing Curry's production, the Lions' defense has even greater need of a leader.  Ernie Sims plays with lots of passion, but he doesn't have the gift of inspiring other men to play like he does.  Curry could immediately fill that role.  Finally, Schwartz has been saying all along that he doesn't want "the right position", he wants "the right person": a good kid, a hard worker, someone who's both athletically elite and a remarkable individual--and he's pointed at Megatron as the perfect example of that. Between his insightful blogging, (you really do have to click that link and read it!) his committment to supporting his family, and his jaw-dropping skill set, I really think that Curry is "the right person".

We went to a place called Palomino, across the street from the hotel, with the head coach, Jim Schwartz, and a couple of other coaches. Mostly, they just wanted to know what kind of person I am because they already know the type of player I am. They wanted to know if I could handle the pressure of being a number one pick. I told them I was willing and ready. Then they wanted to know if I was the person and player they could build a defense around. I told them I was ready to lead their defense next season. I don't know yet if I convinced them, but I think I did a pretty good job. We'll find out soon enough.

Indeed we will, Aaron.

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quick hits

Hey folks, I'm busy at work behind the scenes on the rest of the position group breakdowns.  A couple quick combine impressions:

* As almost everyone is saying, the shenanigans involving Alabama OT Andre Smith are like a forest of huge red flags: out of shape, didn't work out, left the combine without telling anybody, had an awful round of interviews . . . no thanks.

* OT Jason Smith from Baylor looked phenomenal.  Folks like Dave Birkett have been raving about him for a couple of days, but watching him in the position drills, he clearly stood out.  Very very strong in the upper body, very smooth and polished.  My new #1 OT.

* OT Eugene Monroe of Virginia did himself a lot of favors yesterday with his performance, and the Lions have already met with him.  He also looked excellent in drills; I'd have to rate him #2.

* Michael Oher didn't do anything to drop his stock necessarily, but he looked thick on bottom and lean on top; didn't look all that athletic next to some of the other guys, and admitted he hasn't even read "Blind Side", a book that was written primarily about him.

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