Three Cups Deep: The Eye of the Hurricane

With the weekend’s whirlwind of roster moves giving way to a holiday calm, we have  a moment to reflect on where the Lions are at, and where they’re going—as they forge into the vicious winds of Solider Field.  Sports Illustrated’s Damon Hack broke down the Lions, and their chances for success in 2010, on last night’s Fireside Chat podcast.

In my post-interview segment, I had a brain fart and started talking about the Lions’ newest defensive back, Alphonso Smith, as if he was selected in the 2010 draft instead of the 2009.  As soon as I realized my mistake, I wondered where my wires got crossed . . . it didn’t take me long to remember.

Last season, Steve of Detroit Lions Weblog and I collaborated in a blogger mock draft, and who was our second-round selection?  None other than Alphonso Smith.  Here’s what I said at the time:

Smith possesses all the tools of a prime time NFL cover corner: blazing speed, great short-area burst, confidence, and a nose for the ball. To make a long story short, Smith looks like Dre' Bly all over again, minus (offically speaking) one inch of height. 5'-9" is really small, especially since that's an "official" height. We'll see what happens when he weighs in at the combine, but for now the height gives me pause.  [Steve] and I were wearing our Martin Mayhew/Shack Harris caps (golly, who was who?), trying to draft as we think the Lions will.

One of the justifications for my controversial selection of Josh Freeman in the first round, was that I thought Smith might still be here for us at this pick--and he is. Smith is also a dangerous return man, so even if he doesn't start, or begins his career as a nickel back, he'll be have a chance to make an immediate impact in another desperate need area. Moreover, Smith possesses the attitude--if not the frame--to be excellent in run support. Despite his size, he's very strong and physical . . . I think he needs to go to the vet, because his pythons are sick (apologies to Colin Cowherd).

Of course, I said all that stuff in defense of taking him over the eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year, Clay Matthews, so, y'know, take that with a grain of salt.

If Smith truly is a younger Bly, he’ll compete for time immediately—but his one-year tenure in Denver suggests he’s not anything of the kind.  Then again, the Falcons gave up on Chris Houston after just two years, and he’s working out great so far; perhaps the Lions are just more willing to give cornerbacks the time they need to develop.  Yeah.  Let’s go with that.

A couple of housecleaning notes: first, a recent flurry of excellent comments has gone unreplied to (DrewsLions, Matt, et al.).  I’m working on it.  That, and a recent MGoBlog post has inspired me to go back into my inbox and take care of some flummoxing old emails of my own.  Also, I’m updating the Detroit Lions Jersey Menagerie.  All of that, a Watchtower, and more, coming this week.

The far eyewall approaches; the turbulent winds of Solider Field howl.  Our men in Honolulu Blue will brave them on the way to victory—are you ready to follow them?  I am.  Let’s do this thing.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,sports illustrated,alphonso smith,clay matthews

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Dré Bly is Not a Cancer (He’s a Gemini)

One of the interesting things about the blogosphere is the “echo chamber” effect.  In  media, the “echo chamber” is a phenomenon where a rumor makes its way to a media source, who shares it or alludes to it, some media outlets report the rumor, many media outlets report on reports of the rumor, and eventually the sheer volume of reports bouncing off of each other become (presumptive) truth.  An example: the IrishCentral.com report that  Brian Kelly would be hired at Notre Dame, which got picked up by the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, and then the Detroit News, and then they all reported each other reporting this report that, as far as anyone knew, was only a solid guess by some dude’s alias—Sean O’Shea—at a website about everything Irish.  Not everything Notre Dame Fighting Irish, just . . . Irish.

Brian at MGoBlog completely blew up everyone involved in the O’Shea/Kelly echo chamber incident at the time, and deservedly so.  This, though, is an example of the blogging version of an “echo chamber”: since many blogs analyze news rather than report news, one blog will react to another, yet another will react to the other’s reaction, and pretty soon you have analysis of analysis of analysis of analysis . . . whether that’s better or worse than Sean O’Shea taking a well-informed shot in the dark that ricochets all over the media is debatable.

On Sunday, Tom Kowalski at Mlive.com broke down Dré Bly, as he’s done for many key/interesting Lions this offseason.  Besides some cogent, rational analysis of his skills and how they’ve aged, Killer addressed Bly’s character:

There is a notion that Bly might be something of a lockerroom cancer, but just the opposite is true. More than 90 percent of the people in the organization believed the same thing Bly did. Harrington was far from the only reason the Lions were having their issues but, because of his position, Harrington was at the center of it.

Michael David Smith over at ProFootballTalk read Killer’s Bly piece, and posted his reaction take within a few hours:

“For starters, if 90 percent of the people in the Lions' organization really agreed with Bly that ‘Millen did a great job drafting the guys,’ well, then I don't even know what to say . . .”

“None of this is to say that Harrington was a good quarterback in Detroit. He wasn't. But he was far from the only problem. And if 90 percent of the Lions' locker room in 2005 thought Harrington was the "whole problem," that just shows what a clueless group of players the Lions had. Now they've brought one of those clueless players back.”

Well, let’s hope analysis is more like parfaits, and less like onions . . . or ogres.

Let’s re-read that last sentence of Killer’s: “Harrington was far from the only reason the Lions were having their issues but, because of his position, Harrington was at the center of it.”  Yes, because of his position.  Because of his salary.  Because of his repeated failure to progress within the offense.  Because his head coach wanted nothing to do with him, and never did.  Because the front office ceded to the coach’s demands to bring in Jeff Garcia.  Because Jeff Garcia got hurt and blew chunks.  Because Matt Millen refused to admit his mistake.  Because Millen compounded his mistake over and over and over again by refusing to admit it.

Quarterbacks the lynchpin of a football team.  They touch the ball on every offensive play.  Great quarterbacking can elevate mediocre teams to the very summit of the NFL, and bad quarterback play makes everything else irrelevant.  Consequently, quarterbacks are lightning rods for public praise and criticism.  No NFL player will ever be as worshipfully adored as Brett Favre was by Green Bay—and perhaps none will be as viciously despised as Favre now is by Green Bay.

Joey Harrington wasn’t just a quarterback, he was a number three overall draft pick quarterback.  He was a franchise savior, a harbinger and herald of bright futures and blue skies.  He was paid lavishly, he was handed the the keys to the franchise—and he was absolutely unwanted.  The fans didn’t want him.  His teammates didn’t want him.  His coach didn’t want him, either (Marty Mornhinweg, on that fateful draft day, told Kowalski he was behind Harrington’s selection--but later admitted he was flim-flamming).

Not only did Harrington’s failure to click get earn Mornhinweg an awkward dismissal, Matt Millen’s pet project got Steve Mariucci run as well.  With all the drafts from 2003-2005 focusing on “giving Harrington weapons,” and not, for example, restocking the defense, a team that was finally starting to move in a positive direction got dragged back down to the bottom.

"WHAT?" you say. "Positive direction?  During the Millen Era?" Mr. David Smith’s skepticism above not withstanding . . . yeah, positive direction.  In 2004, the Lions had the 18th-best scoring defense in the NFL—which is only mediocre, but it was the last time the Lions’ defense looked nearly so good.  It was also the second-closest thing to a winning season the Lions got in the Aughts.  The 2004 season included a 4-2 start, two road wins, and a season sweep of the Chicago Bears.  Six of the ten losses were by a touchdown or less!  Yes, there was definitely positive momentum heading into 2005.

So what happened?  First, a nice opening win against the Packers—then a horrific 5-INT Harrington implosion against the Bears.  There was an only-the-Lions-get-screwed-like-this Week 3 bye to marinate on it . . . and then, a robbery.  Man, oh man, if I’d been blogging back then, you folks would have needed eye bleach to wash out the vicious, nasty things I’d have written about the Buccaneers’ 17-13 “defeat” of the Lions.

It was Harrington’s first signature comeback drive, an efficient 81-yard march ending with a well-placed 12-yard touchdown pass—that got taken away by review.  Despite the play being ruled a touchdown on the field, and the ball being in Pollard’s hands while he was in bounds, the ref overturned the call, and the Lions’ season momentum evaporated. 

Obviously, Joey Harrington was not then, never became, and likely never would have become a great NFL quarterback.  But flip that one bit from “0” to “1”, and instead of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Falcons sealing Mariucci’s fate, it’d have been the first time the Lions dipped below .500.  Yes, that’s right: if that touchdown doesn’t get called back, the Lions carry a .500 or better record into Thanksgiving.

Instead, it all fell apart.  With fans publicly, and teammates privately, incensed with Harrington’s subpar play, Mariucci didn’t support his quarterback.  Instead, he made plain his frustration with Harrington, and propped up Jeff Garcia at every opportunity.  Mariucci’s failure to groom Harrington into a winner—and by extension, failure to make Millen look good—cost Mooch his job.  Dré Bly speaking this fact aloud didn’t make him a cancer—it made him honest.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,profootballtalk.com,dré bly,matt millen,mlive.com,michael david smith

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The Lions Rest, But Do Not Sleep

According to Chiefs blog Arrowhead Pride, the Lions have inquired about KC’s disgruntled safety Jarrad Page.  Apparently, it didn’t get much past the inquiry stage, possibly due to the asking price.  Scout.com’s Nate Caminata found out from Scout’s Chiefs expert Nick Athan the Chiefs’ valuation of Page ($).  Whether the Page talks develop into a Page trade, or whether they’re not getting any farther than they’ve gotten, this is important.

For starters, it shows the Lions aren’t satisfied with throwing C.C. Brown atop a pile of bodies (Ko Simpson, Marquand Manuel, Marvin White, Daniel Bullocks) at safety.  Brown, nicknamed “Can’t Cover” Brown by Giants fans,  won’t fix the frequent blown assignments we saw from Lions safeties in 2009.  The others . . . well, they’re the same guys from 2009.  So nothing the Lions saw in minicamp gives them confidence that the answer at safety is currently on the roster.

The second, and arguably more, important thing: they’re doing something about it.  Throughout last season, the Lions cycled players on and off the roster at an incredible rate.  Any time they could make a move to improve the roster, they did—and given how much of that roster needed improving, they made a lot of moves.  A commenter, TimT, did a breakdown of last season’s roster churn, showing that 123 different players were Lions (to one degree or another) during the 2009 contract year.

After the free agent bonanza in March, and subsequent draft in April, there was a collective exhalation, as though the mad rush was over.  Outside of a few key spots (RT, OLB, CB, and S), the roster makeover was nearly complete.  Skilled veterans and talented youngsters were all over the starting lineup—and what’s more, they fit what the coaches want to do.  The Lions-observer hivemind was satisfied that with a couple of top free agents next season, and a third solid draft, the Lions would be well on their way to perennial contention.

While the Lions-observer hivemind are satisfied at the progress, the Lions execs and coaches are not.  Rather than call the last 18 months of work good, and head into camp with more answers than questions for the first time in forever, they’re still furiously turning over every stone.  With the signing of Dré Bly, and this move for Page, we see that the Lions aren’t content with improvement in the relative sense, not satisfied with merely being better.  They won’t look on a hard-fought five-win season as a success; they’re not playing for 2011.

Given the brutal division in which they play, and magnitude of the mountain they had to climb just to get to “bad,” and the unknown height yet to climb before “good,” this relentless effort to improve in July won’t really matter, will it?  The difference between Ko Simpson and Jarrad Page won’t be the difference between a winning season and a losing one . . . will it?

Well, even discounting the impact that some of the “minor” additions like Zack  Follett have had on the roster, the greatest impact will be the process of improvement itself.  The phrase “relentess effort to improve” hasn’t been used in association with the Lions since . . . well, it’s been a while.  Just the fact that the Lions are continually adding, improving, changing, looking for more, striving to be better, even when other teams are not . . . it will pay real, material dividends in the W-L column this fall.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,kansas city chiefs,jarrad page,arrowheadpride.com

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The Third Time’s the Charm? Dre Bly is a Lion, Again

The first time I wanted Dré Bly to be a Lion was in 1999.  Recent top draft picks Terry Fair and Kevin Abrams were on the roster—but neither seemed to be on track for stardom, and the Lions have always needed as much cornerback help as they could get.  Besides, Bly’s resume as a playmaker was absolutely astonishing.  From the Dré Bly Wikipedia entry:

In his redshirt freshman season at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), Bly received all-American honors. He is only one of five players in NCAA history to achieve this honor as a freshman (Tony Dorsett, Herschel Walker, Bjorn Merten, and Marshall Faulk being the others) [1].

Bly was the only football player in UNC and ACC history to receive consensus 1st team All-America honors three times in his college career. In his sophomore year, he was one of three finalists for the Bronko Nagurski National Defensive Player of the Year Award. Bly held the ACC record for career interceptions (20).

Regrettably, the Lions did not draft Bly.  They traded at least their second- and fifth-round pick (historians disagree) to the Dolphins to move up to the 27th slot.  Once there, they took mountainous right tackle Aaron Gibson of Wisconsin.  Bly and his surprisingly slow 40 time (4.51) slid into the second round, where the St. Louis Rams pulled the trigger at the 41 slot.

The second time I wanted Dré Bly to become a Lion was in 2003, when his four-year rookie deal expired.  After two years straight years of riding the pine for a Super Bowl team, Bly finally got his shot at the big time in 2001, and didn’t disappoint.  In 16 games, and 4 starts, Bly had 6 interceptions, and returned two of them for scores.  Bly also saw extensive use as a punt returner starting in ‘01.

In ‘02, Bly ascended to a full-time starting role—and while his INT numbers dipped to 2, he defensed 18 passes, forced 4 fumbles, and recorded 54 solo tackles.  In short, as they say in the business, he made himself a lot of money.  To be specific, he made a lot of William Clay Ford’s money: a five-year, twenty-four million dollar contract, six million of which came up front.  I’d gotten my wish.

On the surface, Bly’s four years here were a success: 19 interceptions, 38 passes defensed, and two Pro Bowl appearances.  Yet, injury hampered his play; he missed nine games in four years.  Further, his gambling style resulted in negative plays, as well as positive ones.  Here’s a notable one, from his days in Denver:

Of course, before Bly was traded to the Broncos for George Foster and Tatum “Boxer Thief” Bell, he took a stand for recently-fired coach Steve Mariucci:

"If we'd had production on offense, in particular the quarterback position, Mooch wouldn't have been fired.  If Jeff Garcia hadn't gotten hurt, we wouldn't be in this position today.  Mooch wouldn't have gotten fired.  We're all at fault, but I just feel like Joey [Harrington]'s been here four years, and being the No. 3 pick in the draft, he hasn't given us anything.  He hasn't given us what the third pick in the draft should give us."

For this, Bly took quite a bit of heat.  After all, here he was, taking a public and private stand against the team’s quarterback, blaming him for their coach’s dismissal.  Right or wrong (and, in hindsight, he was more right than wrong), that’s something you just don’t do.  He bounced from Detroit to Denver, then from Denver to San Francisco—and, in the words of Eminem and Phil Zaroo, we forgot about Dré.

The third time I wanted Dré Bly to be a Lion, I didn’t even know it; I’d merely been calling for the Lions to add a decent, veteran cover corner.  Well, late on Friday, the Lions announced they’d signed Bly to a two-year deal.  Quoth the ever-quotable cornerback:

I feel like I played my best ball here in Detroit.  I feel like it's home and to come back and have the chance to finish my career where I played my best ball -- where I feel like I'm part of the community -- is a great feeling.

Broncos beat writer Frank Schwab wryly noted on Twitter that having the chance to draw an NFL paycheck must also be a great feeling for Bly.  The results of his stints in Denver and San Francisco were mixed, but unlike here, they were remembered more for the negative plays than the positive ones.

For what it’s worth, Niners fans seem sad to see him go; they see the secondary as a potential problem, and Bly as a good nickel/decent #2.  Top-notch 49ers writer Matt Maiocco said that Bly’s lack of physicality was a poor fit for their scheme—and according to Maiocco’s team sources, Bly’s attitude and declining speed also factored into his release.

What does this all mean for the Lions?  Bly is, by far, the most experienced corner on the roster—and, presuming he hasn’t declined too much, should still be one of the most physically talented, as well.  Jim Schwartz does prefer a more aggressive, jamming cover corner—but all of the Lions’ current corners fit that mold, and they’re either too inexperienced or insufficiently skilled to play deep man coverage.  That may be all that Bly can do at this point, cover a receiver downfield—but it’s the one thing the Lions needed most.

I have no idea whether Bly will enter the season as the #1 corner, or if he’ll be cut before the season starts.  I could believe either scenario, but I’d suspect something in between, leaning more towards “Bly starts at least two games for the Lions by the end of the season.”  No matter what happens, though, this is a halfway-decent attempt at addressing the Lions’ biggest flaw, and in July that’s difficult to do.  Here’s hoping, indeed, that the third time is the charm.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,dré bly,san francisco 49ers

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every dog has his day

Unlike when a new executive is brought in from another team, when Martin Mayhew was promoted to GM, he was already intimately familiar with his roster: a group of 53 players, plus a host of players on IR, plus practice-squadders, that had completed the NFL’s only 0-16 season just the day before.  He knew the strengths and weaknesses of all of them; he’d presumably argued either for or against the acquisition of almost every one.  Therefore, when he was handed that roster and told to make a winning football team, he knew he had a long, hard road in front of him.

First, of course, he had to establish a long-term vision for the kind of team they want to build—both with his front officemate, President Tom Lewand, and then his head coach, Jim Schwartz.  Then, he could go to work: subtracting players who didn’t fit that vision, and adding players who did.  Unfortunately, you can’t turn over an entire roster in one offseason; it’s just not possible.  Moreover, even between the draft and free agency, all of the players needed to fill the long-term vision almost certainly won’t be available the year you establish that vision.  That means that when Martin Mayhew went roster-building, he had to continually keep in mind that the point wasn’t to do whatever it took to maximize the Lions’ win total in 2009—it was to actually build the roster.

There’s been a bit of handwringing over how most of these changes have left the Lions--theoretically a youthful team starting from the ground up--actually quite old.  I’ve commented before that between Grady Jackson, (possibly) Kevin Carter, Larry Foote, Julian Peterson, Anthony Henry, and Philip Buchanon, the Lions’ defense would be the best in the league if it was 2004 now.   However, this is where you have to keep in mind the above.  The Lions were acquiring the kinds of players they need to win, because they couldn't possibly acquire all the specifc players they need to win in one spring.  However, pay close attention, because from here on out, the rookies that the Lions draft, and the young veterans they sign to long contracts, will fill those same roles.  DeAndre Levy could become quickly become young Larry Foote.  Sammie Lee Hill could develop into young Grady Jackson.  Louis Delmas could quickly become young Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu—and believe me, if Troy Polamalu had been past his prime and available as an affordable free agent, the Lions would have done everything they could to get him in here.

The key here is remembering that the older stopgaps are just that—stopgaps.  They might work out beautifully, giving the Lions a couple of very productive years, like Dan Wilkinson did earlier this decade.  They might already be out of gas, and barely see the field.  The beautiful part is that none of these “graybeards” have been signed to extensive deals.  Beyond Julian Peterson and Philip Buchanon—both on the right side of 32—the veteran acquisitions are all on one- or two-year deals.  Mayhew and the Lions could easily wash their hands of any of them.

As oft as Matt Millen is excoriated for his awful drafting, I think that has more to do with the visibility that comes with being in the top ten every year—the Eagles have been just as prolific and putrid as the Lions in taking first-round wideouts.  I really think it’s his free agent signings that sunk the team.  Over and over again, he’d make a huge splash by giving all the money in the world to the best available guy who played the position he wanted to address.  As one example, he backed up the Brinks truck for Dre’ Bly—an undersized speed-and-coverage cornerback—while his defensive coordinator was Kurt Schottenheimer, who preferred very physical press coverage.  Why?  The Lions were desperate for cornerback help, and Bly was the best one available.  To Millen, it didn’t matter that Bly didn’t fit the vision, it didn’t matter that Bly’s mouth was even bigger than his sizable talent, and it didn’t matter that the enormous money would chain the Lions to Bly for the next several years--he just needed to fill that hole.

Come next spring, the veterans that didn’t work out—or were eclipsed by younger players—will be let go, and another big infusion of players who fit the vision will be brought in.  This time next season, I really believe that we will see a Detroit Lions roster that is very young, very talented, and very close to the kind of team that Mayhew, Lewand, and Schwartz have meant to build.

As for now . . . well, let these old dogs have their day.  We might be surprised.

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