Matt Millen is Not Still In The House.

By now, I’m sure you heard about the Lions erroneously sending out their list of pre-draft rookie visits not just to the league offices, but to the entire league. Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio reported this, then ended his article with a little jab:

Why do we have a funny feeling that, in some way, this is Matt Millen’s fault?

Har har. Sean Yuille over at Pride of Detroit did an awesome job debunking the notion, noting that Killer reported the list only contained visits to date, not future invites—and Dave Birkett spotted a known visit that wasn’t on the publicized list. The best thing Sean did though, was point out how little the list really matters:

The disclaimer I have presented when tracking these visits is that you shouldn't try to read into them too much. Like Schwartz said, it is fun for us fans to track, but it's not like they are a great indicator of who might be picked in the draft. That is why I don't see this email thing as being a huge "blunder" at all. Hell, with the way Martin Mayhew and company are so secretive with some information, perhaps they meant to send it to the rest of the league. You never can be too sure, but even if this was a mistake I don't see it as being a very big one. It's not like the Vikings or some other team picking ahead of the Lions is going to alter their draft strategy over some names in an email about pre-draft visits. That would be almost as ridiculous as how PFT framed this story in the first place.

I’ll defend Florio, though he doesn’t need my help (and will likely never know I offered it!). He tries to keep things funny; one of the easiest fish to shoot in the barrel is poking fun at a perennial loser. I don’t ascribe this to anti-Lions malice, just Florio trying to punch up a relatively harmless story with a funny angle. We may not find it all that funny—but believe me, if the headline were “Vikings Expose Something Other Than Visanthe Shiancoe” we’d be chortling along with everyone else.

Florio says right in the piece he assumed Schwartz’s quote about “everyone already knowing” referred to agents disclosing what other teams their client has visited. It’s common knowledge in league circles; they just ask around. Yes, it’s embarrassing the Lions made it so easy on everyone else—but it won’t change anyone’s draft strategy. A team brings a guy in for a visit to learn more about him . . . they don’t bring in the guys they’re already sure about—and definitely not the ones they trying to keep their interest in secret. As far as I know, Mike Shanahan didn’t even say Jay Cutler’s name out loud before trading up in the first to build the Broncos around him.

Matt Millen made a lot of mistakes when he was here. He flapped his gums a lot about what the Lions were going to do. He approached the front office like he was the coach of a football team, and not like he was the President and CEO of a billion-dollar company—literally, his job title. He put in 40 and flew home for the weekend, every weekend, for eight years—in an industry where the best leaders sleep at their desk. The results were terrible, but Matt Millen isn’t an idiot. He isn’t a blundering meathead who can’t do anything right. He’s just a well-spoken, likable football guy who was in way, way, way over his skis. His biggest mistake was refusing to quit.

No, Matt Millen wasn’t a human curse upon this franchise. He wasn’t a fell demon whose pestilent shadows still lurk in the corners of Allen Park, making fax machines jam and administrative assistants hit “Reply to All.” To the contrary, the new, infallible leadership that everyone has so much faith in? The executives we’re so sure are awesome that we’re tempted to call this email leak deliberate? They were Millen’s right- and left-hand men. Yet, in just their second season, the Lions won more than they did in all but Millen’s best year. Their track record already speaks for itself: Matt Millen doesn’t live here anymore, and this little oopsy doesn’t reveal any cracks in the Lions’ foundation.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,matt millen,martin mayhew,tom lewand,mike florio,profootballtalk.com,pride of detroit

Read more...

The Lions Congregation: Preseason Week 4

Mea culpa!  I didn’t get this link up on Sunday, but The Lions Congregation met and mooted, engaged in discourse over the weekly questions:

• What was with the media circus surrounding Suh’s play on Delhomme? Would he really face suspension?
• Dan F: I have only passingly watched/followed the Lions the last few years thanks to Matt Millen. They still only won two games last year, and Mayhew was Millen’s guy. Other than lucking into Ndamukong Suh how are things really different than when they were adding “weapons for Joey”?

Do not tarry!  Get thee to the Roar of the Lions for the philosophy of the men of the Lions cloth.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,ndamukong suh

Read more...

Dré Bly is Not a Cancer (He’s a Gemini)

One of the interesting things about the blogosphere is the “echo chamber” effect.  In  media, the “echo chamber” is a phenomenon where a rumor makes its way to a media source, who shares it or alludes to it, some media outlets report the rumor, many media outlets report on reports of the rumor, and eventually the sheer volume of reports bouncing off of each other become (presumptive) truth.  An example: the IrishCentral.com report that  Brian Kelly would be hired at Notre Dame, which got picked up by the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, and then the Detroit News, and then they all reported each other reporting this report that, as far as anyone knew, was only a solid guess by some dude’s alias—Sean O’Shea—at a website about everything Irish.  Not everything Notre Dame Fighting Irish, just . . . Irish.

Brian at MGoBlog completely blew up everyone involved in the O’Shea/Kelly echo chamber incident at the time, and deservedly so.  This, though, is an example of the blogging version of an “echo chamber”: since many blogs analyze news rather than report news, one blog will react to another, yet another will react to the other’s reaction, and pretty soon you have analysis of analysis of analysis of analysis . . . whether that’s better or worse than Sean O’Shea taking a well-informed shot in the dark that ricochets all over the media is debatable.

On Sunday, Tom Kowalski at Mlive.com broke down Dré Bly, as he’s done for many key/interesting Lions this offseason.  Besides some cogent, rational analysis of his skills and how they’ve aged, Killer addressed Bly’s character:

There is a notion that Bly might be something of a lockerroom cancer, but just the opposite is true. More than 90 percent of the people in the organization believed the same thing Bly did. Harrington was far from the only reason the Lions were having their issues but, because of his position, Harrington was at the center of it.

Michael David Smith over at ProFootballTalk read Killer’s Bly piece, and posted his reaction take within a few hours:

“For starters, if 90 percent of the people in the Lions' organization really agreed with Bly that ‘Millen did a great job drafting the guys,’ well, then I don't even know what to say . . .”

“None of this is to say that Harrington was a good quarterback in Detroit. He wasn't. But he was far from the only problem. And if 90 percent of the Lions' locker room in 2005 thought Harrington was the "whole problem," that just shows what a clueless group of players the Lions had. Now they've brought one of those clueless players back.”

Well, let’s hope analysis is more like parfaits, and less like onions . . . or ogres.

Let’s re-read that last sentence of Killer’s: “Harrington was far from the only reason the Lions were having their issues but, because of his position, Harrington was at the center of it.”  Yes, because of his position.  Because of his salary.  Because of his repeated failure to progress within the offense.  Because his head coach wanted nothing to do with him, and never did.  Because the front office ceded to the coach’s demands to bring in Jeff Garcia.  Because Jeff Garcia got hurt and blew chunks.  Because Matt Millen refused to admit his mistake.  Because Millen compounded his mistake over and over and over again by refusing to admit it.

Quarterbacks the lynchpin of a football team.  They touch the ball on every offensive play.  Great quarterbacking can elevate mediocre teams to the very summit of the NFL, and bad quarterback play makes everything else irrelevant.  Consequently, quarterbacks are lightning rods for public praise and criticism.  No NFL player will ever be as worshipfully adored as Brett Favre was by Green Bay—and perhaps none will be as viciously despised as Favre now is by Green Bay.

Joey Harrington wasn’t just a quarterback, he was a number three overall draft pick quarterback.  He was a franchise savior, a harbinger and herald of bright futures and blue skies.  He was paid lavishly, he was handed the the keys to the franchise—and he was absolutely unwanted.  The fans didn’t want him.  His teammates didn’t want him.  His coach didn’t want him, either (Marty Mornhinweg, on that fateful draft day, told Kowalski he was behind Harrington’s selection--but later admitted he was flim-flamming).

Not only did Harrington’s failure to click get earn Mornhinweg an awkward dismissal, Matt Millen’s pet project got Steve Mariucci run as well.  With all the drafts from 2003-2005 focusing on “giving Harrington weapons,” and not, for example, restocking the defense, a team that was finally starting to move in a positive direction got dragged back down to the bottom.

"WHAT?" you say. "Positive direction?  During the Millen Era?" Mr. David Smith’s skepticism above not withstanding . . . yeah, positive direction.  In 2004, the Lions had the 18th-best scoring defense in the NFL—which is only mediocre, but it was the last time the Lions’ defense looked nearly so good.  It was also the second-closest thing to a winning season the Lions got in the Aughts.  The 2004 season included a 4-2 start, two road wins, and a season sweep of the Chicago Bears.  Six of the ten losses were by a touchdown or less!  Yes, there was definitely positive momentum heading into 2005.

So what happened?  First, a nice opening win against the Packers—then a horrific 5-INT Harrington implosion against the Bears.  There was an only-the-Lions-get-screwed-like-this Week 3 bye to marinate on it . . . and then, a robbery.  Man, oh man, if I’d been blogging back then, you folks would have needed eye bleach to wash out the vicious, nasty things I’d have written about the Buccaneers’ 17-13 “defeat” of the Lions.

It was Harrington’s first signature comeback drive, an efficient 81-yard march ending with a well-placed 12-yard touchdown pass—that got taken away by review.  Despite the play being ruled a touchdown on the field, and the ball being in Pollard’s hands while he was in bounds, the ref overturned the call, and the Lions’ season momentum evaporated. 

Obviously, Joey Harrington was not then, never became, and likely never would have become a great NFL quarterback.  But flip that one bit from “0” to “1”, and instead of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Falcons sealing Mariucci’s fate, it’d have been the first time the Lions dipped below .500.  Yes, that’s right: if that touchdown doesn’t get called back, the Lions carry a .500 or better record into Thanksgiving.

Instead, it all fell apart.  With fans publicly, and teammates privately, incensed with Harrington’s subpar play, Mariucci didn’t support his quarterback.  Instead, he made plain his frustration with Harrington, and propped up Jeff Garcia at every opportunity.  Mariucci’s failure to groom Harrington into a winner—and by extension, failure to make Millen look good—cost Mooch his job.  Dré Bly speaking this fact aloud didn’t make him a cancer—it made him honest.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,profootballtalk.com,dré bly,matt millen,mlive.com,michael david smith

Read more...

Mlive.com Highlight Reel: The Ghosts of 1991

My latest piece for the Mlive.com Highlight Reel: a harrowing, cautionary tale of specters come to life, dreams denied, and a couple of dudes who got plenty of Hair Action back in the day.  It also works a little Super Bowl in there.

Read more...

Neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet . . .

Hey folks, it’s Mailbag time again.  I’m going to get right to it with a great one from Scott T.:

I was watching SportsCenter tonight, and they cut to a preview segment of tonight's MNF game, with Matt Millen. For the first time, a raw emotion hit me as I listened to MM speak; loathing. I remember listening to Matt Millen, the color analyst, prior to his tenure with the Lions. My thoughts then were "he's pretty sharp, makes good points" etc, etc. Now that he has returned to that position in broadcasting, I am now POSITIVE, that he could make the same statements, prove the same points, and for me, I just want to turn the TV off, or change the channel. His words no longer are credible with me. To be honest, I haven't paid much attention to his return to broadcasting, and have never really listened until tonight. In my mind, and probably my own, Matt Millen, the NFL analyst, is now a joke, and I resent his being on TV passing his opinion on to national and even regional viewers.

This one is tough for me.  I’m always the first to defend Millen’s right to ply his trade—and like you, I enjoyed his analysis work the first time around.  I don’t think that his failure as the CEO of an NFL franchise disqualifies him from a career in broadcasting; certainly there are plenty of great players and coaches who would be terrible analysts, and plenty of mediocre players and coaches (Merrill Hoge) who are very sharp on-camera.

However, I experienced something very similar to what you're talking about a few weeks ago, when Carolina played Dallas on Monday Night Football.  After the game, the talking heads were all taking turns discussing Dallas’ situation, and Millen said “You know, someone who’s got to play better is Roy Williams.”  Within minutes of that admission, he said “You know who I’ve really been impressed with, is Demarcus Ware.”  All of a sudden, I felt an inexplicable rage: YOU DRAFTED ROY WILLIAMS!  YOU PASSED ON DEMARCUS WARE!  ROOOOOAAAAAR!

Bile rushed up my throat, veins popped out of my forehead, and my hands screwed themselves into murderous red claws.  It was a vicious, violent, Pavlovian reaction wholly beyond my control.  After the “Hulk Mad!” moment passed, I was astounded that I could get so worked up over such idle comments.  I’m sure that every NFL executive has dozens of players they wish they could have drafted, including ones they passed on in favor of another prospect they liked *this much* more.  Still, something about Millen making those statements flipped a switch in my brain that I didn’t know I had, especially not in regards to football analysis.

Once we get past the “credibility” angle, the main factor working against Millen is his job selection.  As smooth and insightful as he was in NFL booths, I think he looks awkward and out-of-place during his roundtable work on the MNF pregame/postgame shows.  Also, his college booth analysis, while not awful, lacks the insight of his understanding of the NFL—it’s someone who knows a lot about football in general “reacting” to what’s happening on the field, not an insider “guiding” you through what’s happening on the field.

Now our second question, from my boy Neil at Armchair Linebacker:

Ty, how long can I cry before I dehydrate myself?

Well, we know the human body is about 60% water. According to Wikipedia, symptoms of dehydration begin to set in after losing approximately 2% of the body's water volume, grow severe after 5-6%, and become fatal after a loss of 15%. Given a 200-pound adult male, and accounting for lost water via breathing, sweating, etc., you'd have to cry about five pounds of tears to experience severe dehydration--less depending on how much beer/whisky/turpentine/drain cleaner you've been drinking.

From commenter SomeChoi:

How do you get the energy to keep writing?

I know you're at least partially joking, but I'll answer you seriously: A) my inexplicable love for this team would have me writing on forums and Mlive and the Freep and the News anyway; this just gives all my Lions-y rambling a place to be focused, a place to live and thrive and grow and be useful.  B) I want to be there for other fans like me.  I want to give people a place where they can read and write about the Lions thoughtfully, intelligently, and without fear of mocking laughs or ignorant donkey brays.  I regularly tell commenters and emailers that their kind words give me the fuel to keep driving; I’m not lying when I say that. 

And now a more serious question, what precedent is there to expect Stafford's accuracy to improve? If missing too many wide-open receivers was his problem in college, can we really expect this to be a correctable problem?

First, you'd have to convince me that "missing wide-open receivers" was his problem.  Georgia folks have been constantly telling me that Stafford’s biggest problem at Georgia was actually his total lack of an offensive line . . . in my estimation, Stafford looks fine.  He throws with a lot of velocity, and I think it makes his less-on-target passes look more-not-on-target, if that makes any sense.  I mean, it only follows that receivers have more time to adjust to quails than to rockets. 

Part of this is just his lack of rapport with these wideouts; he spent most of the preseason and training camp running with the twos.  Johnson & Johnson were either starting or hurt throughout most of that time, and Dennis Northcutt missed the entire preseason.  It’s no wonder that they’re not sure where or when to expect his throws, and it’s no wonder that he’s not placing balls right where they need them.

In the second half of the Rams game, Stafford’s body language, throw velocity, ball placement, and facial expressions just screamed that he was trying to execute the offense SO WELL that the Lions couldn’t help but score.  He wasn’t working with his wideouts, he was trying to win despite them—of course, they weren’t doing him any favors either.  On the second-to-last drive, Stafford came to the sideline with a glowering I-can’t-believe-these-guys look on his face that spoke volumes about his opinion of his receivers’ efforts that day . . .

This is both a roster problem, and an experience problem. The Lions will have to bring in better non-Calvin wideouts, and Stafford will have to learn to work with what he’s got, instead of trying to impose his will on his teammates with overexecution.

And now, one from Lopper (which was later seconded by Matt):

Why is it that Killer and others always say that the Lions can't afford another high draft pick because they already have Calvin and Stafford with big contracts?

Well, the answer to this one is pretty depressing: since 2010 is almost certainly going to be an uncapped year, the salary cap actually has nothing to do with it.  It's that the Lions can't afford another Top 5 draft pick.  Like, in terms of money.  Yes, the Fords have a family fortune that we all imagine is effectively infinite.  However, the Lions as a business unit aren't nearly as profitable as they ought to be given their stadium and lease.

Being contractually obligated to rustle up millions every week for game checks to Stafford, Calvin, Backus, and the rest puts a big squeeze on the Lions’ cash flow.  Think about it: 40,000 tickets at their average $67/ticket is $2.68M cash coming in the door each week.  The Lions’ payroll obligations for 2009 are at $120M.  If that’s all paid out over 16 weeks in game checks, that’s $7.5M/wk.  Obviously, this is a MASSIVE oversimplification--but if the Lions are even close to operating from a week-to-week deficit, they’ll be minding their Ps and Qs this offseasons.

If they’re stuck with a Top 5 pick again, they’re probably going to be sideline sitters during this upcoming free agency period.  The focus will be on B- and C-level guys who can fill holes and play roles, instead of young veterans who’d start on a majority of teams in the NFL.  They certainly won't be backing up the Brinks truck to win the Anquan Boldin sweepstakes. On the other hand, if the Fords believe that they're one or two players away from competitiveness--and therefore, a full stadium--they might do as they've (unsuccessfully) done in the past, and spend money to try to make money.

Read more...

Detroit's new Global Positioning System: the Bears

. . . I think I'll take a cue from Barry, flip the ball to the ref, and act like I've been there before. Thanks, Kevin.

On a day when a pall has been cast all across Chicagoland, there's a more localized depression, right over the middle of the Bears' defense:

As expected, the Bears almost certainly will be without linebackers Hunter Hillenmeyer (ribs) and Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee) against the Lions. Both are listed as doubtful. They will be replaced by Nick Roach and Jamar Williams, respectively. Linebacker Lance Briggs (foot) and defensive end Alex Brown (ankle) are listed as questionable but should play.

Lions fans know all too well how critical it is to the Tampa 2 defense that the linebackers be both effective and disciplined, "fitting" their gaps on every down to close off running lanes.  If a linebacker overpursues, is late to the play, or is simply in the wrong place, the results can be disastrous.

If the Bears, who are blitzing on an inordinate number of snaps this year, are relying on these replacements to play meticulously disciplined football, there could be a lot of room in the second level for Kevin Smith--assuming, of course, that he himself is healthy enough to play.

It's imperative that the Lions do what they did against the Vikings and Redskins, and get control of the game early. They will have to keep the ball out of Jay Cuter's hands to keep the newly-born winning streak alive.  They will need to "flip the field" several times--by forcing turnovers, avoiding turnovers, and excelling in both kick return and kick coverage.

Closing my eyes, exhaling, and listening to my gut, I hear a roaring message, loud and clear: it's time for a midnight snack.  Oh, that, and "The Lions don't win road games".  It’s almost cliché to point that out, but it’s true.  The Lions have been absolutely wretched on the road since Millen was hired; at one point they even racked up an all-time NFL worst 24 straight road losses.

In division, it's even worse: the Lions have only won three divisional road games in the last nine years.  It's one thing to squeak by a collapsing Redskins team in the, uh, intimate setting of a 2/3rds-full Ford Field, but going on the road and winning in the NFC Norris? It sounds impossible for this please-excuse-our-dust roster.

. . . and yet . . .  Look carefully at those links. The 24-game road losing streak was snapped against the Bears. The other two divisional road wins were also in Soldier Field.  In fact, you have to go back to 1998 to find a Lions road win against a non-Bears in-division opponent--and that was a victory over the Buccaneers, who aren't even in-division anymore!

Utimately, of course, all of these historical trends don't mean anything. This about Stafford, Smith, and Schwartz, and Cutler and Forte—people these teams are built around, that weren’t even on these three years ago.  This is about two banged-up defenses starting rookies and street free agents. This is about a new Lions squad suiting up against an old rival on their turf, and seeing how they measure up.

I'm going to take a page from 49ers writer Matt Maiocco and label this Sunday's matchup a "GPS Game": this game will show us exactly where the Lions are at. How much they've improved, how fast, how close they are to being competitive in the division, and how ready Matthew Stafford is to be a winning quarterback.

It may be impossible, historically speaking for a rookie Lions quarterback to lead a fresh-off-a-19-game-losing-streak mishmash of a team into rival's stadium, outplay that team's new franchise quarterback, and return to the Motor City with their win "streak" intact . . . but if it's possible anywhere, it's possible at the Lions' home away from home, Soldier Field.

Read more...

how sweet it is

Panic. White-knuckled, full-body panic as the Redskins drove for the game winning touchdown. So conditioned to failure, so used to heartbreak, so prepared for defeat. It was going to happen, I was sure of it. Frantically, my subconcious began running scenarios, trying to imagine exactly how the Lions were going to blow this game. I knew they would lose again, and it would crush me again. All I wanted to know was how, so I could start bandaging the 20th straight blow to my spirit.

Sometimes, I wish I had the jaded heart of the bandwagon jumpers. The fools who turned off their TV/radio/internet feed after halftime, when the Redskins overpowered the Lions like an older brother who just decided to start playing "for real". The tools who, come December, will be sporting all their Lions gear and trying to high-five me like we're united in fandom. The ones who've never felt the urge to run for the door before this team discovers yet another way to lose.

As the clock ticked off the closing seconds, and Redskins chucked the ball around, I still thought it could be snatched away. I'd still thought I'd be spending another evening looking at the bright side; another night of taking the positives. Another Monday at the coffee pot, weakly grinning at my co-workers' playful jabs; another thousand words written about how things are probably getting better.

It may sound silly, but I didn't feel like victory was secure until the ball landed in Ladell Betts's hands. I knew that every damn Lion on the field was faster than him; at that point victory was inevitable. That pure, sweet moment of elation was the emotional cash-in on almost two entire years of suffering. My BlackBerry exploded with calls and texts and Tweets and emails and everything else. The sports bar I was at erupted in cheers and claps and whistles.

I received much dap for my Stafford jersey. Several folks asked me where I got it; one even asked me how much I paid. It was already starting! I had a grin on my face that absolutely could not be erased. On my way out, I stopped at the restroom, and encountered an absolutely plastered Browns fan--one of almost twenty who'd gathered at this particular establishment. He congratulated me on the win, then mentioned he was this close to buying a Favre jersey and becoming a Vikings fan.

I wish I could say I gave that man a rousing speech about fandom and loyalty and respect, about how joy when your team wins is fraudulent unless you steadfastly greive when your team loses, and about screw the stupid Vikings anyway. But, of course, I didn't. Besides not being anywhere near sober enough to take the message to heart, such a "fan" will always be that kind of fan. No sense wasting good breath after bad . . .

The Lions, and Lions fans, are getting a lot of love right now nationally for not being an 0-19 team anymore. Well, they're right. We celebrate this victory tonight--and then the Lions are merely 1-2. Celebrate, Matt Stafford. Celebrate, Calvin Johnson. Celebrate, all you Lions who've never tasted victory before. Celebrate . . . and then get to work. Tomorrow is the first day of the rest of the season.

Read more...

every dog has his day

Unlike when a new executive is brought in from another team, when Martin Mayhew was promoted to GM, he was already intimately familiar with his roster: a group of 53 players, plus a host of players on IR, plus practice-squadders, that had completed the NFL’s only 0-16 season just the day before.  He knew the strengths and weaknesses of all of them; he’d presumably argued either for or against the acquisition of almost every one.  Therefore, when he was handed that roster and told to make a winning football team, he knew he had a long, hard road in front of him.

First, of course, he had to establish a long-term vision for the kind of team they want to build—both with his front officemate, President Tom Lewand, and then his head coach, Jim Schwartz.  Then, he could go to work: subtracting players who didn’t fit that vision, and adding players who did.  Unfortunately, you can’t turn over an entire roster in one offseason; it’s just not possible.  Moreover, even between the draft and free agency, all of the players needed to fill the long-term vision almost certainly won’t be available the year you establish that vision.  That means that when Martin Mayhew went roster-building, he had to continually keep in mind that the point wasn’t to do whatever it took to maximize the Lions’ win total in 2009—it was to actually build the roster.

There’s been a bit of handwringing over how most of these changes have left the Lions--theoretically a youthful team starting from the ground up--actually quite old.  I’ve commented before that between Grady Jackson, (possibly) Kevin Carter, Larry Foote, Julian Peterson, Anthony Henry, and Philip Buchanon, the Lions’ defense would be the best in the league if it was 2004 now.   However, this is where you have to keep in mind the above.  The Lions were acquiring the kinds of players they need to win, because they couldn't possibly acquire all the specifc players they need to win in one spring.  However, pay close attention, because from here on out, the rookies that the Lions draft, and the young veterans they sign to long contracts, will fill those same roles.  DeAndre Levy could become quickly become young Larry Foote.  Sammie Lee Hill could develop into young Grady Jackson.  Louis Delmas could quickly become young Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu—and believe me, if Troy Polamalu had been past his prime and available as an affordable free agent, the Lions would have done everything they could to get him in here.

The key here is remembering that the older stopgaps are just that—stopgaps.  They might work out beautifully, giving the Lions a couple of very productive years, like Dan Wilkinson did earlier this decade.  They might already be out of gas, and barely see the field.  The beautiful part is that none of these “graybeards” have been signed to extensive deals.  Beyond Julian Peterson and Philip Buchanon—both on the right side of 32—the veteran acquisitions are all on one- or two-year deals.  Mayhew and the Lions could easily wash their hands of any of them.

As oft as Matt Millen is excoriated for his awful drafting, I think that has more to do with the visibility that comes with being in the top ten every year—the Eagles have been just as prolific and putrid as the Lions in taking first-round wideouts.  I really think it’s his free agent signings that sunk the team.  Over and over again, he’d make a huge splash by giving all the money in the world to the best available guy who played the position he wanted to address.  As one example, he backed up the Brinks truck for Dre’ Bly—an undersized speed-and-coverage cornerback—while his defensive coordinator was Kurt Schottenheimer, who preferred very physical press coverage.  Why?  The Lions were desperate for cornerback help, and Bly was the best one available.  To Millen, it didn’t matter that Bly didn’t fit the vision, it didn’t matter that Bly’s mouth was even bigger than his sizable talent, and it didn’t matter that the enormous money would chain the Lions to Bly for the next several years--he just needed to fill that hole.

Come next spring, the veterans that didn’t work out—or were eclipsed by younger players—will be let go, and another big infusion of players who fit the vision will be brought in.  This time next season, I really believe that we will see a Detroit Lions roster that is very young, very talented, and very close to the kind of team that Mayhew, Lewand, and Schwartz have meant to build.

As for now . . . well, let these old dogs have their day.  We might be surprised.

Read more...

the rites of succession

Michael Rosenberg's latest article really stirred up somethoughts.  He examined the Chicago Blackhawks, and their long slumber under their late owner Bill Wirtz--and their dramatic resurgence under his son, Rocky.  Rosenberg then wonders if the same thing is in the cards for the Lions when Bill Jr. takes the reigns from Big Willie Style.

This makes three critical assumptions:

1) the Lions' decades-long malaise is primarily the fault of William Clay Ford

2) when Big Willie Style passes on, Bill Ford, Jr. will grab the steering wheel and put the pedal to the metal

3) when Junior does step into the driver's seat, he will be a "better" owner than his father

The problem with 1) is that while it's impossible to deny the conicidence of Ford's ownership and the Lions' track record of futility, Ford meets all the criteria of a great owner: he has nearly infinite resources, he never hesitates reinvest them in his team, he built a gorgeous facility, downtown, with his own money, he's resolutely committed to Detroit, he hires football men to do the football stuff and gets out of their way, and he's loyal to a fault.  The only problem is that he's apparently not very good at hiring football men.

Brian VanOchten of the Grand Rapids Press has been amongst the most vocal and persistent Ford detractors; earlier this year he told Bill Simonson on The Huge Show that Ford is more concerned with hosting socialite cocktail parties in the secret rooms of Ford Field than winning football games.  Of course, being "committed to winning"--that is to say, making a show of being heavily involved in all aspects of the business--doesn't necessarily translate into actual wins.  Al Davis, Jerry Jones, and Daniel Snyder have wasted, literally, billions of dollars over the past decade trying franticallly to win Super Bowls--and, outside of the Gruden's Revenge Bowl, haven't even come close.  In fact, one could compellingly argue that these franchises would be much better off if their owners focussed more on fêtes than football . . .

As for 2), it's widely assumed that Bill Ford, Jr. would relish the opportunity to take control of the Lions away from his father, "clean house", and run the team the right way.  Many point to his fateful statement to the media that he'd fire Matt Millen if he could as evidence of this.  However, when directly asked if he's anticipating taking over the Lions, he hasn't responded in the affirmative:

My first obligation is to Ford [Motor Company], and that's still the case. ... I love the team. I'm a huge fan and always will be. But I don't know at this point what I could really contribute at the team level." [Detroit Free Press, 4/2/2008]

Given everything that's been going on in the auto industry lately, even though Bill Ford holds the title of "Vice Chairman" of the Lions, he can't possibly have much spare time or energy to invest in the day-to-day operations of a football team.  I don't think that Bill could become a vocal, involved, hands-on, micromanaging NFL owner.  That's not his managerial style, and that's not where his priorities or passions lie--he's too busy getting FoMoCo back on top.

Finally, 3) just because Bill Ford Jr. is a better businessman than his father was (see: having the wisdom to step down as CEO in lieu of a more experienced turnaround man, Ford beating most of the rest of the industry in Q1 2009, etc.), doesn't mean his management style is going to vastly differ from his father.  It's true that he might hire better 'football men', or have a shorter leash on those that are clearly failing; who knows?  Maybe that will be the difference.  But the idea that the entire organization is somehow rotting from the top down because WCF is inherently evil, and once someone, anyone, else is in charge, the curse will be broken . . . well, it's simply not true.  Yes, the Steelers have a wonderful ownership family and have been consistently succesful.  However, they just faced off against the Cardinals in the Super Bowl--and the Bidwells have been consistently ranked among the worst owners in sports.  The Rams' Greatest Show on Turf era came under Georgia Frontiere, who was hardly a football maven or a businesswoman.  She inherited the team when her sixth husband died, and within a few years, moved the team to her hometown of St. Louis.  Even so, the Rams won one Super Bowl, reached another, and spent years terrorizing the NFL, all with her atop the organization.  If Bill Ford Jr. does nothing more than write the checks and watch the games, he'll be, on paper, no different than his father.  Finally, it's been reported that if Junior'd had his way, he'd have promoted Tom Lewand a long time ago--so no, I do not see any Rocky Wirtz-style house cleaning taking place.  

So what does this all mean?  I think it means that Bill's already at the helm.  Let's add up all the evidence: Junior says he'd fire Millen if he could; three days later Millen is fired.  The day after the season is over, Junior's favored candidates are given the keys to the franchise.  Last year in 2006, he stepped down as CEO of Ford in the prime of his career.  He's a self-proclaimed passionate fan of the team, and he knows that the franchise will be his as soon as his octogenerian father passes.  It only makes sense to put the "affairs in order" first.  Of course, I have no first- (or second-, or third-)hand knowledge of this, just my suspicions.  But when William Clay Ford drives off this mortal coil, I suspect that nothing will change except the signature on the checks.

So does this end all Lions fans' hope for a Blackhawks-style renaissance?  No--it means that renaissance, if it's coming, has already started.

Read more...

Chairman Matt Millen & the Freedom of Commentary

It was a stunning sight.  Matt Millen on NBC's Football Night In America, in between Jerome Bettis and Bob Costas.  Millen providing reactions, commentary, analysis . . . like nothing ever happened.  It was breathtaking, mind-boggling, even.  For eight years, Matt Millen had been a headshot on a website, a quote on Mlive.com, a figurehead.  Millen became the focal point of all pro-Lions propaganda, and the rallying cry of all anti-Lions dissention.  Matt Millen became, for Lions fans, the Mao Tse Tung of the Twenty-Aughts Detroit Lions: someone who we felt like we knew intimiately, yet never saw or heard.  Trusted with the leadership of that which we hold so dear, and yet simultaneously the source of all of our misery.  Permanently ensconced in the Forbidden City (Allen Park), Millen was the target of protests, demonstrations, and public effigy-burnings.  "Fire Millen" became both the rallying cry and watchword for rebellious Lions fans.  Millen's secret police tried to quell the uprising, but eventually the world at large heard of our plight.  Millen's many disastrous failures were at first sold to the public as great successes.  But even once the failures of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution were apparent, Millen still could not be deposed.  No matter the public outcry, or the obvious failures in management, Millen's hold on the Presidency of the Lions was absolute.  Only when the Emperor's son spoke out against Millen, was Millen's hold on the Lions finally released.

And yet . . . the man whose face had been seen only in newspapers and bumper stickers was on my TV tonight.  He was breaking down the game, offering opinions and insight, and even affably talking about his days at the helm of the Lions.  It was clear--and in fact, it's already been suggested by profootballtalk.com that Millen has merely picked up where he left off: as the heir apparent to John Madden.  What I don't get is, how can Millen maintain his credibility?  My inner response to almost all of his analysis was, "How in the hell would you know?!?", or "Who cares what you think?  0-16!!".  Is this the result of being a Lions fan, or will this be the national response as well?

Moreover, what if he proves to be--as he once was--really, really good in front of a camera?  If he returns to being a standout analyst and/or broadcaster, will that pull the curtain back on modern football analysis?  Will fans finally realize the gaping chasm that exists between the senseless yammering that goes on on sounstages in NYC and Hartford and what is really happening in the Allen Parks of this NFL world?  That being able to talk pigskin with aplomb and elan does not a great business man, manager, or talent evaluator make?

Eh, probably not.  Chris Collinsworth for President, CEO, GM, head coach, and concessions manager!!!

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,matt millen,nbc,profootballtalk.com

Read more...