Fireside Chat Week 1: Detroit Lions vs St. Louis Rams

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The Watchtower: Lions vs. Rams

Finally.

The Lions host the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, and all the months of half-informed, befuddled claptrap about the Lions “regressing” or “taking a step back” or having “discipline problems” or whatever will but up against the hard reality of the Detroit Lions taking the field and playing honest-to-God competitive football.

The baseless “regression” hogwash that floated throughout the diaspora has been logically debunked, most spectacularly by Nate Washuta of Holy Schwartz! and Jeremy Reisman at Detroit OnLion. Now, the Lions have a chance to physically debunk it, by playing four quarters of great football against a team that’s served as a benchmark for Jim Schwartz’s Lions twice before.

It was against the Rams that the Lions suffered the most obnoxious defeat of the 2009 campaign: the Rams’ 17-10 win at Ford Field was their only win of the season, the only “W” standing in between them and repeating the Lions’ 2008 feat.

It was against the Rams that the Lions enjoyed their most emphatic win of the 2010 season: a 44-6 romp that not only answered the question of which team’s turnaround was further along, but served as a desperately-needed release for apoplectic Lions fans; it was a laugher in every sense of the word.

Now, somehow, the stakes are exactly the same: a loss to the lowly Rams would be again be a gut-punch, a convincing win all the proof we need that everything is going to be alright.

Scott Linehan vs. Jeff Fisher

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	JF	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	TEN	30th	27.4	7.27	4.55	20	-21%	6.10	-15%	5.63	20%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	TEN	29th	26.3	6.84	4.22	24	21%	5.03	-15%	5.05	37%

Scott Linehan has faced off against Jeff Fisher twice before: in 2005, as the offensive coordinator of the Dolphins under Nick Saban, and the season before, as architect of the Vikings offense. The ‘04 Vikings were a powerful unit, ranked 6th in the NFL in scoring. They averaged 7.16 yards per pass attempt, and 4.71 yards per carry on the ground—both figures second-best in the NFL.

The Titans were not, as they say, in their glory in these days. In 2004, the Titans were ranked 30th (3rd-worst) in the NFL in scoring defense. They allowed an average of 27.4  points per game, 7.27 yards per pass attempt and 4.55 yards per carry.

Surprisingly, Linehan’s Vikings only scored 20 points against the Titans that day, 21% below their season average. They also held the Vikings to 6.1 YpA, 15% below their season average. The Vikings, however, ran at will: 5.63 YpC, a 20% boost above their already-stout 4.71 season average. Further, it didn’t really matter: the Titans’ offense could only muster a lousy three points; the Vikings didn’t have to put up pinball numbers to win comfortably.

In 2005, the Titans at least managed an offensive touchdown: Billy Volek hit Drew Bennett for a 55-yard score in the fourth quarter. But 10 points couldn’t match the Dolphins’ 24. Linehan’s Dolphins scored 21% more points than their season average against Fisher’s Titans, and again ran wild: 5.05 YpC, a 37% boost over their 2005 norm.

Interestingly, the YpA depression was exactly the same as in 2004: 15%. So we have two contests between these two coaches, with two different teams running the same offensive system against the same defensive system. In both cases, there was a major talent gap: the 2004 and 2005 Titans defenses were terrible overall, the 2005 Dolphins were average, and the 2004 Vikings were excellent.

We have only two games to work with, and the scoring differentials weren’t consistent. But the passing depression was exactly 15% both times, and the running boost was significant both times. I'm willing to declare: when facing Jeff Fisher/Jim Schwartz defenses of poor quality, Scott Linehan offenses tend to pass less effectively, and run much more effectively, than their season averages.

Brian Schottenheimer vs. Gunther Cunningham

Shot

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Gun

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

NYJ

12th

23

6

4.8

DET

19th

23.1

6.75

4.51

24

6%

8.62

45%

3.67

-24%

The last time the Lions faced Brian Schottenheimer, I went on one of my most ridiculous flights of if-then fancy. Not only did I play telephone with Schottenheimer’s mentors and influences, going all the way back to Sid Gillman, I went to ridiculous lengths to construct a narrative from the data I cobbled together. The result? Durr Sharks.

From that original Watchtower, I pointed out:

If there were no systemic advantage or disavantage, the expectation for the Jets’ offense against the Lions’ defense would be 24-27 points.

The Jets needed an overtime field goal to get there, but 24 points is exactly what they scored. That field goal pushed the points delta from –7% to +6%,  to go with a whopping 45% increase in YpA. The Lions, surprisingly, held up very well against the Jets’ bruising running attack, holding them to just 3.67 YpA (-27%) . . . fat lot of good it did them.

That the Jets had the 12th-best offense, and the Lions the 19th-best defense, and they did such a fantastic job of holding down such a powerful running attack (very much unlike the rest of the season). The Jets met scoring expectations, but only because they dragged it out into overtime. Their YpA was extraordinarily high; I’d be surprised if Mark Sanchez equalled that mark in any other game. Of course, he was helped tremendously by two 74- and 52-yard bombs;  subtract those two throws and Schottenheimer’s Jets only netted 5.68 yards per attempt.

The bottom line here is that it seems as though there may be a mild systemic advantage for Jim Schwartz defenses against Brian Schottenheimer offenses, especially against the run. However, I got burned really badly when speculating on Schottenheimer before, and now we’re dealing with a completely different team.

Conclusion

I’m not doing mitigating/augmenting influences this time; we have no strong statistical trends and no data from this season to work with, either. This might also be the most incestuous game I’ve ever Watchtowered, too: Schwartz, of course, coached under Fisher in Tennessee for years, and Gunther Cunningham worked with Brian Schottenheimer (and his father) in Kansas City.

All of these coaches know each other (and each other’s schemes) very well; there’s going to be a lot of chess-matchery going down. But in this battle of student and master—or, should I say, mentor and Grandmaster—the student is playing with quite a few more pieces.

The Rams have two strong running backs and a great pass-rushing defensive line. They also have a young quarterback who’s still more potential than reality, and a bevy of talented new faces in the secondary. They don’t have any real receivers, or an offensive line worth mentioning.

The injuries to the Lions’ secondary make me wonder if this will be a shootout, but I can’t believe the Rams’ offense will be consistent enough to string several scoring drives together. Based on last year’s Lions offensive output and pass rush, plus the Rams’ profound awfulness and in-progress recovery therefrom, I see the most likely outcome as a 32-17 Lions win. As a corrolary, watch to see if the Lions’ systemic advantage in running the ball, and disadvantage passing the ball comes into play.

I can't pretend this is a mathematically derived anything, and so have very low confidence in this projection. AFTER this game, we’ll have a pretty clear idea on whether or not Gunther really does have the drop on his homeboy’s kid, and whether the student truly has become the Grandmaster. Going into it, I’m going with my gut.

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Week 1 Preview: Q&A with WIll from RamsHerd.com

To help break down the regular season opener, I traded Qs and As with Will Horton of RamsHerd.com, whose site got a killer makeover today.  RamsHerd combines smart Rams opinions with deep-dive analysis and snappy charting, much the same as we endeavor to here at TLiW. But, you know, with Lions.

Will, who is an excellent follow on Twitter @RamsHerd, sent me five well-researched questions and I attempted to do the same. Here’s how he replied:

The first question Lions fans are going to want to answered: How is Sam Bradford adapting to Brian Schottenheimer's offense? Schottenheimer took a lot of heat from Jets fans over the years, and this season must be considered the make-or-break for Bradford's development as a franchise quarterback?

The adaptation for Bradford seems to be going well, in terms of his understanding Brian Schottenheimer’s playbook (which is akin to Pat Shurmur’s, but a little more diverse) and being able to direct traffic. Most importantly, the ball is coming out of his hand much quicker than it was under McDaniels. Whether it’s route simplicity or more decisiveness on his part, he looks much closer to his rookie year form than his 2011 “deer in the headlights” form.

I still have concerns about his mechanics, especially his footwork and his ability/willingness to slide in the pocket to avoid pass rush, rather than simply bailing out or tucking in. He showed progress this summer, but a strong pass rush like the one the Cowboys put on him in game 3 of the preseason made him revert to last year’s bad habits.

As far as this being a “make or break” season, I think Bradford needs to have a good year, but it’s still too soon to expect greatness. Give him two years in the same offense and continue to upgrade his weaponry, and I still believe he can be a top-ten quarterback in this league.

For that matter, can Steve Smith, Danny Amendola and the rest of the Rams' receivers test the Lions' beleaguered secondary? With Chris Houston and Louis Delmas looking very unlikely to play, can the stoppable force move the movable object?

Bradford has been targeting outside receivers more often in Schottenheimer’s offense than he did under Shurmur, but the real wildcard will be TE Lance Kendricks. He plays the invaluable Dustin Keller role in this offense, and has looked very good at times. His hands run hot and cold, which is a big concern, but Bradford still looks comfortable throwing to him, particularly on third downs.

We have seen a decent amount of intermediate targets and a handful of deep throws in the offense so far, which is potentially good. But unless the offensive line picks up the Lions’ pass rush, though, Sam won’t have much time to hang in and stretch the secondary.

Chris Long had a breakout performance rushing the passer in 2011, and was rewarded with a lavish four-year extension. How will his ever-changing role change for 2012, and how hard will the Rams' pass rush be for the Lions to contain?

To use a Detroit metaphor, Chris Long’s best attribute is that he has plenty of horses under the hood. He is relentless on the pass rush, and is making a more focused effort against the run as well. He should have a strong year. But Robert Quinn is the pass rusher you have to fear. His speed to the passer is breathtaking, and he has a knack for finding the ball. However, with Michael Brockers out, Quinn will face more double-teams. Long has the better running partner this week in Kendall Langford, but long-term Quinn will be the guy that takes the big step forward this year.

You posed this one to me, let me turn it back on you: "This will be an interesting matchup of coaches, with the pupil taking on the master. How will Jeff Fisher gameplan against a team that might be his strategic mirror image?"

If I’m Jeff Fisher on offense, I try to take advantage of Ndamukong Suh’s over-aggressiveness with a lot of inside running plays, redirecting him out of a lane and sending a back through there. If we consistently get a back into the second level, that has the dual effect of putting your D back on its heels and saving Bradford from a lot of early wear and tear. Plus it makes Sam’s play-action (which is very good) a more potent weapon.

On defense, I don’t think you have to do anything special to contain the Lions’ running game. I roll the dice with Janoris Jenkins or Cortland Finnegan singled up on Calvin Johnson, and roll a safety over to help. However, given our woeful situation at safety, it’s really going to be up to the corners and the pass rush to keep Megatron from blasting huge holes in the defense.

Even if it doesn’t pay off, Fisher is looking to establish a blueprint based on strong individual cornerback play and this game gives him a great stress test.

The Rams' defense has a lot of new faces--including Cortland Finnegan, whom Lions fans coveted from the instant Schwartz was hired. Which one will have the biggest impact against the Lions?

Finnegan’s impact and leadership has already been huge in restoring a swagger to a decrepit Rams secondary. But the key difference-maker is Janoris Jenkins, who has as much pure playmaking ability as any rookie I’ve seen in a Rams uniform since Torry Holt. I’m really excited to see how he performs, especially since opponents will likely be targeting him like mad. If he plays up to the potential he flashed in camp, he has a very real shot at running away with the DROY award.

I’ve often cited the Rams and Bucs as comparison cases for the Lions: all three franchises hired new coaches in 2009, all three franchises rebuilt around a first-round quarterback, and all three had some measure of early success. But while the Lions were slower to get to a winning record, both the Bucs and the Rams crashed out, and find themselves at something like square one this season.

The Rams’ rebirth and re-death was stunning: they went from a 1-15 team to a 7-9 team and back down to 2-14, all with the eminently qualified Steve Spagnuolo (“Candidate 1A”) at the helm. The collapse also occurred with Bradford, the quarterback people said the Lions should pass on Matthew Stafford and tank the 2009 season to get, under center.

With Tampa Bay, Raheem Morris’s turnaround job always felt like smoke and mirrors. His resumé was laughably thin, his demeanor and approach unconventional. Many refused to believe that Morris was getting it done with anything other than smoke and mirrors—and in 2011 his detractors seemed to be proven right.

None of the strongest bounceback indicators are there; with the Rams’ –13.4 points-per-game scoring differential, Pythagoras expected them to go 2.3-13.7. But despite a lot of roster turnover on the defense and in the WR corps, the identity is the same: Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson, Chris Long anchoring a strong defensive line.

I can’t help but feel like that 7-9 team just needed a quick dusting-off before the playoff-bubble teams from two seasons ago would shine through.

If I’m right, we’ll find out quickly.

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Watchtower review: Lions vs. Rams

Let's begin with the conclusion of last week’s Watchtower:

The numbers tell me that the most likely outcome will be a 20-24 loss.However, I just can’t believe it. All of the factors besides the raw data point towards the Lions both scoring more, and allowing fewer, points against the Rams. My instincts tell me that the team that fell two points shy of beating the Packers in Lambeau has the edge over the Rams at home—and Vegas agrees with me; the Lions are three point favorites. Either way, it will be a closer game than we thought it’d be going into the season—but I’m going to depart from the numbers. I’m predicting a 27-17 win for the Lions.

As commenter Angus Osborne said:

Ty: this Watchtower proves that despite the diligent detailed work you put in you're more a fan than a statistician.

That’s true, I am a fan more than a statistician.  In fact, I’m no kind of statistician; I’m terrible at this stuff—but I’m so fascinated with the ways statistics can reveal hidden truths in football, that I’m researching and learning and gleaning everything I can to try and play with the statistical big kids.  However, I also believe that all the numbers have to be grounded in reality, and my eyes and instincts revealed the numbers’ lies.

In this case, the numbers were telling me that Shaun Hill was going to play like an average of his performances against Chicago, Philly, Minnesota, and Green Bay—and I knew the Rams weren’t going to put up that kind of a fight.  Second, the numbers were telling me that the Rams were going to play like an average of their performances against Arizona, Oakland, Washington, and Seattle—and I knew the Lions were going to put up more of a fight. 

The “mean” (average) of a given data set isn’t always the most telling number; sometimes it’s the “median” (the one in the middle), or the “mode”) the most frequent number.  If there were a defense that gave up seven points in each of its first five games, then 42, then seven again, the average would tell you that team typically allows 13 points—when really, it typically allows seven.  As I said in the Watchtowering of the Rams:

The Rams have faced the Cardinals, Raiders, Redskins, and Seahawks, and allowed 17, 16, 16, and 3 points in those games. I’m inclined to believe that allowing about 16 points to a mediocre offense is where the Rams’ defense “really” is, and the Lions have a slightly-better-than-mediocre offense. They also have Calvin.

As it turns out, I was right that the Rams were an "alllow 16 points to a mediocre offense” kind of defense, but I was wrong about the Lions.  They aren’t a “slightly-better-than-mediocre” offense, they’re the sixth-best in the NFL; now scoring 25.2 PpG.  That Lions offense against a middling Rams defense (with a likely systemic advantage on the ground) projects out to 27-30 points; 30 offensive points were exactly what the Lions scored.  Of course my work last week could only take into account Weeks 1-4:

Given theoretically-lesser-but-probably-really-equal talent, and a nonexistent-but-probably-really-existent systemic advantage, especially vis-a-vis the run game, I project the Lions will score 15-to-20 points, pass for 6.25-to-6.50 YpA, and rush for 4.5-to-4.75 YpC.  I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

. . . and yeah.  Not what happened.  What about the defense?

Given no real systemic advantage or disadvantage, I project the Rams’ offense to meet expectations against the Lions’ defense: 23-26 points, 6.5-7.5 YpA, and 4.00-4.25 YpC. I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

I got nothin’ here.  The Lions only sacked the Rams once in 74 dropbacks (though they did score countless pressures and hits on the quarterback).  They forced three turnovers, but one was immediately returned for a score, so snaps and drives weren’t terribly depressed.  The Lions simply shut the Rams down, regardless of averages.  I’m trying to nail down exactly what is was that enabled this kind of performance—but for the meantime, just be happy about it.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,st. louis rams

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Three Cups Deep: Lions vs. Rams

Hire Steve Spagnuolo.  Don’t draft Matthew Stafford, wait for Sam Bradford next season.  Pick up Jason Smith instead, and make sure your franchise quarterback will be protected his whole career.  Fix the middle linebacker spot by taking James Laurinaitis in the second.  Next year, after Bradford, take a physical tackle (who could play a little guard) in the second to complete your offensive line.  Pick up a big, physical corner in the third.  Sign O.J. Atogwe to a long-term deal.

At some point over the past two years, most (or many loud) Lions fans were screaming for the Lions to do all of the above.  Incredibly, the Rams took their advice.  At every step of the way in the two franchises’ mutual rebuilding, the Rams have done what the majority (or extremely vocal minority) of Lions fans wanted the Lions to do.  The Rams did all of the above—they hired Spags, took Jason Smith and Little Animal, picked up Rodger Saffold and Jerome Murphy, and re-signed Windsor native FS O.J. Atogwe.  If the Lions had done those things, I bet Mayhew and Schwartz would be even more popular with the fanbase than they are today. 

On Sunday, the Rams visited Ford Field, and the Lions kicked their ass.

The sixty-minute woodshedding the Lions put on the Rams was a thing of beauty; a joyous celebration of victory in progress.  Not only did they get a lead in spectacular fashion, they built it—through consistently excellent play in all three phases of the game, the Lions not only failed to lose the lead, they kept pulling farther away until the final gun scored!  Despite visibly changing mood from “desperately hungry” to “having a good time out there,” the Lions managed to take their foot off the gas without allowing the Rams to catch up.

It’s been said elsewhere that the Lions need to “learn how to win,” need to learn how to play as a team to preserve a victory once it’s been gained.  To use the scoreboard to their advantage, to take control of the game and put it away.  To, once an opponent has been knocked to the ground, put their boot on its throat, and claim victory.  Today, we saw “Learn How to Win” class in session.  I’m not sure the Lions have graduated yet—but they passed their this test with flying colors.

Yesterday was an incredible release; the Lions took their (and our) pent-up frustration out on an unsuspecting opponent.  They brought everything they had to bear on the Rams--and, as is often the case with superior talent and effort--caught a few breaks.  Everything went right for the Lions yesterday; now everything IS right in the world today.  Tomorrow is another story, of course, but let's not think about that now.  On this day, in this moment, the Lions reign victorious--and we rest comfortably in the knowledge that the Lions' leadership has been making excellent choices, with or without our help.

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VICTORY FIRESIDE CHAT!

For the first time ever, the Fireside Chat Podcast reviews a GLORIOUS VICTORY!

. . . guess my baseless premonitions are on-point, eh?

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,st. louis rams,shaun hill,jahvid best,sam bradford

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Gameday Post: Smells Like Victory

On Friday, I felt an irrational sense of impending doom; a baseless, primal fear. My friend Neil at Armchair Linebacker writes often of this clawing dread. The Fear sits in the pit of every Lions fan's stomach on gamedays--maybe never more than on days when the Lions are favored to win. Today's mix of desperately needing this victory in every way, and the theoretical attainabiility of said win, is a deadly cocktail, indeed.

But today, I am peaceful. Today, I am blissful. I have a quiet, unshakable confidence that's likely just as irrational as The Fear. Perhaps it's temporary insanity, perhaps it's the afterglow from yesterday, but whatever it is I feel as though nothing can touch me--and no one can beat the Lions.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,st. louis rams

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The Watchtower: Lions vs. Rams

Of all the crucial, critical, star-crossed, must-win matchups the Lions have faced so far this season, none is more important than this one.  Why?  Even the most pessimistic projections of the Lions win totals include this game as one of them.  The Rams are the only team most onlookers felt the Lions were clearly better than heading into this season, and the matchup was commonly thought of as an island of winnability amidst division-road-game-infested waters.

Unfortunately, the Lions' ship has run aground on every reef along the way; they’ve finally beached themselves on this island’s shore, only to find restless natives that are riding a two-game winning streak and boast the NFL’s 4th-best scoring defense.  Suddenly, this pencilled-in win looks like a tooth-and-nail battle—and if they can’t come up with a W before this not-yet-sold-out home crowd, it’s going to be a long, ugly, blacked-out season at Ford Field. 

Scott Linehan vs. Steve Spagnuolo

Lin	Spags	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
MIN	PHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	2nd	16.2	5.84	4.31	16	7.30	1	4.11	3-1	4-11
MIN	PHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	2nd	16.2	5.84	4.31	14	6.72	2	4.33	3-1	3-28
STL	NYG	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	5th	18.4	6.24	3.97	13	5.53	1	4.25	0-0	6-44
DET	STL	27th	16.4	7.80	4.42	31st	27.2	7.67	4.40	8	5.09	1	3.85	0-0	2-6
DET	STL	13th	20.5	5.78	3.69	4th	13.0	6.28	4.56

In last season’s Watchtowering of the Rams, I reminded folks that I was a fan of Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo:

Spagnuolo, for those who’ve been reading this blog since back when only seven or eight people were reading this blog, was my initial choice for Lions’ HC; I actually tagged him “Candidate 1A” after breaking down his resume.

I broke down data of matchups between Linehan and Spags’ mentor, the late Jim Johnson, and one between Linehan and Spagnuolo himself.  Here’s how I put it then:

Based on the sole data point between Linehan and Spagnuolo, I'd be tempted to conclude that there’s a massive systemic advantage for Linehan, given that the woeful Rams essentially performed to their season averages against one of the best defenses in the league. However, giving some consideration to the strong Linehan/Johnson data, the correct conclusion is that given lesser or equal talent, there is a mild systemic advantage for a balanced Scott Linehan offense when facing an aggressive Steve Spagnuolo 4-3, especially when boasting an effective inside running game.

Given how poor the Rams’ defense had been up to that point (they would finish as the second-worst in football), and how kinda not that terrible the Lions’ offense had been (they would finish 27th), I felt comfortable projecting the following:

Given a definite execution advantage and a mild systemic advantage, the Lions should strongly outperform expectations--and their season averages. I would expect 24-27 points, 6.5 to 6.75 YpA, and 4.0 to 4.25 YpC. I have medium confidence in this projection.

Well, that medium confidence was wholly unfounded.  The Lions mustered only 8 offensive points, 5.09 YpA, and 3.85 YpC.  They did not outperform their season averages; in fact they profoundly underperformed them.  This result completely confounds my prediction and rational expectations.  Matthew Stafford started and played that game; it wasn’t a matter of Culpepper smothering the offense.  So, what was it?  I reviewed my Three Cups Deep post from after the ‘09 Rams game:

In the theatre of the mind, the DVD one feels has been popped in is the 2002 Lions. There’s rookie Joey Harrington trying to keep his head above water, throwing to a cobbled-together crew of stone-handed also-rans: Bill Schroeder, Az-Zahir Hakim, Scotty Anderson. There’s RB James Stewart, a decent NFL starting back, whose inside running style is being stymied by an offensive line unable to open inside holes. That line, of course, features Jeff Backus, Dominic Raiola, a young mammoth RT with tons of upside but questionable athleticism and instincts (Stockar McDougle), and a rotating cast of has-beens and never-wases at guard (Tony Semple, Ray Brown, Eric Beverly) . . .

The resemblance is uncanny. However, there are a few critical differences between the ‘02 Lions and the ‘09 Lions. Joey Harrington, then, was clearly “swimming”; in NFL-speak, that’s thinking instead of acting or reacting. You could watch his wheels turning, watch him trying to take it all in, watch him trying desperately to slow it all down. In 2009, Matthew Stafford looks more like he wishes he could slow it down for his teammates. He looks like he’s trying to will his team to victory—or like he’s trying to win despite them. It’s telling that on the Lions’ sole offensive score, Stafford called his own number.

Oh.  Right.  No Megatron.

It’s difficult to quantify exactly how much impact Calvin Johnson has on the Lions’ offense, but here’s a dramatic example.  Kevin Smith led the Lions in receptions that day, with 4.  Bryant Johnson’s two receptions tied him with Brandon Pettigrew, Aaron Brown, and Casey FitzSimmons for the second-most balls caught.  The only other Lions to catch passes that day were Maurice Morris and Will Heller, meaning that Bryant Johnson’s 2 catches were the only catches any Lions wide receiver made that day.

Let’s say for the sake of projections, though, that that game invalidated my conclusion that Scott Linehan offenses have a systemic advantage over Steve Spagnuolo defenses (even though I’m not sure it did).  The Lions are the best offense the Rams have faced so far this year, averaging 20.5 points per game—and the Rams, at least by the numbers, are the second-best scoring defense the Lions have faced this year (Minnesota is #1 overall).  By the averages, then, the Lions should score 13-17 points.

However, as I've been saying, this early in the year means averages aren’t exactly gospel.  The Rams have faced the Cardinals, Raiders, Redskins, and Seahawks, and allowed 17, 16, 16, and 3 points in those games.  I’m inclined to believe that allowing about 16 points to a mediocre offense is where the Rams’ defense “really” is, and the Lions have a slightly-better-than-mediocre offense.  They also have Calvin.

Still, the numbers are the numbers for a reason, and when I follow them they usually treat me right.  Given theoretically-lesser-but-probably-really-equal talent, and a nonexistent-but-probably-really-existent systemic advantage, especially vis-a-vis the run game, I project the Lions will score 15-to-20 points, pass for 6.25-to-6.50 YpA, and rush for 4.5-to-4.75 YpC.  I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

Augmenting/Mitgating Influences:

Pretty much as I laid out above: except for last week, the Rams are consistently allowing 16 or 17 points to mediocre offenses.  Oakland is ranked 17th w/19.0 ppg, Washington's 19th with 18.2 ppg, Seattle's 18th with 18.8, and Arizona’s 29th with 14.5 ppg.  The Lions are a cut above these teams—and if Jahvid Best is ready to go, he could have a monster day.  If the Lions can spring him for a long run or two, the Lions could really turn this one into a shootout—or a blowout.

I don’t see any downside here.  The Lions’ offense is much, much better in both dimensions than they were last year, they’re at home, and they’ve got everyone back except for Stafford.  I “really” think the Lions will score 27-30 points, but the methodology just doesn’t lead to that conclusion.

Gunther Cunningham vs. Pat Shurmur

Shurm	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
PHI	TEN	4th	25.9	6.18	4.54	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	24	5.89	2	3.64	1-1	6-31
PHI	KCC	18th	19.4	5.93	3.92	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	37	7.69	1	1.65	3-1	1-1
STL	DET	32nd	10.9	4.95	4.34	32nd	30.9	5.42	4.42	17	5.9	1	5.77	0-0	0-0
STL	DET	16th	19.2	5.49	3.46	25th	26.5	8.03	4.85

 

Last year was Pat Shurmur’s first as an offensive coordinator—but since he’d learned exclusively at the knee of Andy Reid, I went ahead and analyzed Gunther’s track record against Reid.  The data was kind of all over the place, except for one extremely strong trend:

Given how loosely connected these two data points are to Pat Shurmur, and how wildly they vary between each other, I cannot draw a firm conclusion, other than Reid/Shurmur Walsh-style offenses run the football well below expectations when facing a Schwartz/Cunningham aggressive 4-3.

. . . unless, of course, Steven Jackson happens.

Therefore, given no talent advantage for either side, and only a very questionable systemic advantage for Cunningham defenses against the running game of Reid/Shurmur offenses, I expect the Rams' output will meet expectations. This means they should outpace their season averages: I project 10-13 points, 5.60-5.80 YpA, and 4.5-4.75 YpA.  I have medium-low confidence in this projection.

We immediately run into a problem: the Rams scored 17 points in the game, but seven of those points came on a fake field goal.  I’ve said before that I only count the points scored in offense-defense interaction; I’m trying to isolate the effect of an offensive system facing a defensive system.  But, unlike an interception taken back to the house, I can’t just wipe the seven points off the board here; the Lions’ defense let the Rams get within field goal range—and likely would have surrendered three points if the Rams hadn’t faked it.  So, for the sake of judging my projection, I’ll rewrite history and say they attempted and made a field goal; that makes 13 points, right in line with my projections.

So.  The Rams’ offense should meet talent/execution expectations against the Lions; but what are they?  The Rams’ offensive output this season, is double what it was at this time last year; at 19.2 ppg they are the median offense in the NFL.  Facing the Lions’ 26th-ranked defense, they should be in for an above-their-averages day.   Meanwhile, the Lions’ defense should allow just about exactly their averages.  Given no real systemic advantage or disadvantage, I project the Rams’ offense to meet expectations against the Lions’ defense: 23-26 points, 6.5-7.5 YpA, and 4.00-4.25 YpC.  I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Any time you have a rookie quarterback starting, it’s a big bag of question marks.  As Chris McCosky pointed out in the News, Steven Jackson was the difference in the game last year.  He’s coming off a warriorlike performance against the Seahawks, playing through a fresh groin injury—still, his 22 badass carries were only good for 3.18 yards per (70 total).  If he’s no more effective this week, the Lions’ defense will be able to tee off on the quarterback.

Speaking of teeing off on the rookie, the Lions’ defensive linemen have to be drooling.  With second-year tackle Jason Smith on the left, and rookie Roger Saffold on the right, and the Lions boasting the fourth-best sack rate (per dropback) in the NFL, well . . . you connect the dots.  With the exception of DeAndre Levy, the whole defense will be out there—and Alphonso Smith may be getting his first start of the season, helping bolster the secondary.  If  Steven Jackson isn’t Steven Jackson, the Lions could put the clamps on the St. Louis offense—quickly.

Conclusion:

The numbers tell me that the most likely outcome will be a 20-24 loss.  However, I just can’t believe it.  All of the factors besides the raw data point towards the Lions both scoring more, and allowing fewer, points against the Rams.  My instincts tell me that the team that fell two points shy of beating the Packers in Lambeau has the edge over the Rams at home—and Vegas agrees with me; the Lions are three point favorites.  Either way, it will be a closer game than we thought it’d be going into the season—but I’m going to depart from the numbers.  I’m predicting a 27-17 win for the Lions.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,st. louis rams,jim schwartz,steve spagnuolo,matthew stafford,calvin johnson,sam bradford,steven jackson

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Tinderbox: Impending Doom

I’m currently working on the Watchtower for the Rams game, and I can’t get away from a sense of impending doom.  No, the numbers don’t look that bad—in fact, I have no logical reason for this whatsoever.  It’s just . . . well, this one was supposed to be the patsy, the gimme, the sure thing.  And, well, I don’t know if you folks remember, but the Rams were supposed to be the patsy last season too, and, well . . .

Impending doom.

Okay!  Enough of that; let’s keep this fire going.

Remember that time Alphonso Smith was a guy the Lions might have taken with the second pick in second round of last season's draft, but instead they took Louis Delmas so Denver traded their first-round pick this year to take Alphonso Smith instead, and then the Broncos decided they didn’t like him or something and traded us Alphonso Smith for Dan Gronkowski?  Well, Shawn Windsor of the Freep writes that Smith is pushing for a starting spot now, much as if the Lions had taken him in the second round to begin with.

If Smith and Houston continue to play well, it will be a huge boon to the defense—and we may have two starters at cornerback that start next year, as well.  If my research is correct, that’s the first time that’s happened since the Bryant Westbrook/Terry Fair combination, more than a decade ago.

Tom Kowalski writes that Sam Bradford is, if not actually scared, well aware of the heat the Lions’ pass rush can generate:

"To be honest, I think that it's one of the better defenses that we've seen,'' Bradford said. "They're very good up front. I think they cause a lot of problems with what they do up front, with some of the pressures that they bring."

People: the Lions are tied for fifth in the NFL in sacks, with thirteen.  That is HALF of their 2009 total!  They’re fourth in sacks-per-dropback, with ten.  Of course, they’re still 30th in opponent yards-per-attempt, and 28th in opponent passer rating—this is still not a good pass defense.  But pass rush?  Yes, and the Lions will be facing their best-yet combination of sackable quarterback, and porous offensive line.  That, at least, is something to get excited about.

 

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,st. louis rams,sam bradford,alphonso smith

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three cups deep: resignation

Don't be fooled by the title!  I'm not tendering my “resignation”, merely writing about my mood this morning.  My second cup of coffee is slowly waking me up to reality: the Lions really lost to the Rams.  Moreover, they looked completely impotent.  It wasn’t just that they couldn’t score any points the Rams didn’t hand them for the first three quarters.  It was hauntingly familiar scene: linemen who couldn’t block, receivers who couldn’t catch, and defenders who couldn’t tackle.

In the theatre of the mind, the DVD one feels has been popped in is the 2002 Lions.  There’s rookie Joey Harrington trying to keep his head above water, throwing to a cobbled-together crew of stone-handed also-rans: Bill Schroeder, Az-Zahir Hakim, Scotty Anderson.  There’s RB James Stewart, a decent NFL starting back, whose inside running style is being stymied by an offensive line unable to open inside holes.  That line, of course, features Jeff Backus, Dominic Raiola, a young mammoth RT with tons of upside but questionable athleticism and instincts (Stockar McDougle), and a rotating cast of has-beens and never-wases at guard (Tony Semple, Ray Brown, Eric Beverly) . . .

The resemblance is uncanny.  However, there are a few critical differences between the ‘02 Lions and the ‘09 Lions.  Joey Harrington, then, was clearly “swimming”; in NFL-speak, that’s thinking instead of acting or reacting.  You could watch his wheels turning, watch him trying to take it all in, watch him trying desperately to slow it all down.  In 2009, Matthew Stafford looks more like he wishes he could slow it down for his teammates.  He looks like he’s trying to will his team to victory—or like he’s trying to win despite them.  It’s telling that on the Lions’ sole offensive score, Stafford called his own number.

There's another critical difference: one of the NFL’s best WRs was on the sideline.   In 2002, there was no Calvin Johnson who wasn’t able to go that day; Schroeder and Hakim were it.  With Megatron in there, Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt become valuable second and third options instead of woefully inadequate starters.  With Megatron in there, Stafford has an oasis he can go to again and again, instead of rocks in a desert.  With Megatron in there, the defense has to bend and flex soften and roll his way, opening the field up for everyone else.  

There’s one more critical difference: the defense.  Believe it or not, folks, this Lions defense is starting to meet expectations.  Many thought the Rams would finally get their passing game on track against the Lions’ woeful secondary, but 17-of-35 for 176 and 0 is not what I would call “on track”.  If you switch the fake field goal TD for, you know, a field goal, that leaves the Rams with 13 points; exactly what I projected.

Sure, they allowed 149 yards rushing to Steven Jackson—and yes, he made a lot of would-be Lions tacklers look like fools.  But Jackson’s the hardest man in the NFL to bring down, and until the closing minute he never even hit paydirt.  The fact is, a defense that holds its opponent to 13 points has done its job.  A defense that holds its opponent to 13 points, in the NFL, should expect to win.

Ultimately, that's what hurt the most: we expected the Lions to win this one.  They were favored, they’d played better throughout the year, they were at home, and this was the softest opponent on the schedule.  Winning this game would have been a solid step forward: “Hey, we were supposed to win and we did!  Good on ya, boys!”  Meanwhile, the Rams wanted to win.  Needed to win.  The Rams might not have another winnable game left on their schedule ; to them, this was the last chance they had at preventing their own run to 0-16.

The Lions probably got the Rams’ best effort all season—and if the Lions’ WRs could catch a pass, the offensive line could have blocked a little better, or the defense could have tackled a little better, the ending might have been different.  Instead, we need to collectively sigh.  We need to hang up our dreams of 7-9, our expectations of 5-11.  We need to stop thinking that the quick-fix bounceback is happening; it isn’t.  We need to resign ourselves to reality: the Lions are not good, and they’re not going to be good this season.

Let's take another swig of coffee, and open eyes: from this point forward, we're looking for sparks. We're looking for signs of growth, for evidence of progress. We need to see Matt Stafford developing, and starting to elevate those around him. We need to see Calvin Johnson get healthy and build a rapport with Stafford. Mostly, we need to see this team fight for every down, every game, all the way out--even if they don't win any.

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the watchtower: lions vs. Rams

Rob Milanov over at the Bleacher Report captured the feelings of Lions fans everywhere when he wrote, “What Do You Do When Your Football Team Is Actually Favored To Win?”  That’s right—for the first time since the 2008 season opener, the Lions are four-point Vegas favorites.  What, really?  Yes, really—the Lions are expected to win this game by the greater football universe.  Let’s see if the historical data between these teams’ coaches supports that conclusion . . .

Scott Linehan versus Steve Spagnuolo:

Lin	Spags	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
MIN	PHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	2nd	16.2	5.84	4.31	16	7.30	1	4.11	4-11
MIN	PHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	2nd	16.2	5.84	4.31	14	6.72	2	4.33	3-28
STL	NYG	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	5th	18.4	6.24	3.97	13	5.53	1	4.25	6-44
DET	STL	23rd	17.2	5.50	3.74	30th	30.1	7.83	4.30

Obnoxiously, both the Rams’ defense-minded head coach, Steve Spagnuolo, and their offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, have been extremely successful position coaches for a long time in the NFL—but Spags was only a coordinator for two seasons in New York, and this will be Shurmur’s first time calling his own signals.  Spagnuolo, for those who’ve been reading this blog since back when only seven or eight people were reading this blog, was my initial choice for Lions’ HC; I actually tagged him “Candidate 1A” after breaking down his resume:

That Spagnuolo's defense could simply plug in Justin Tuck and Matthias Kiwanauka and still be a fear-inspiring, quarterback-eating, Top 5 defense, speaks highly of the Giants' drafting, Spagnuolo's football teaching abilities, and Spags' scheming and system as well. It's worth comparing his system to his mentor Jim Johnson's in Philly: lots of good, decent, and/or okay DEs and LBs have rotated in and out of Johnson's defenses in the past decade, yet the Philly defense is always amongst the leagues' best (this year the Eagles were ranked 4th, 3rd, and 3rd in the categories above, respectively).

Fortunately, we do have a data point between Linehan and Spagnuolo from Spags’ coordinatorship.  I’m still going to look at data between Linehan’s Vikings and Spagnuolo’s mentor, the late, great Jim Johnson, as it includes two games in the same season—statistically, highly desirable.

In 2004, Linehan's Vikings were, of course, a juggernaut: 6th in scoring offense at 25.3 points per game, 7.16 yards per pass attempt, and 4.71 yards per carry.  Incredibly, though, Philly's defense was even more impressive that year.  Ranked 2nd overall, they allowed only 16.2 points per game, and just 5.84 YpA--though they were run on between the 20s, with a YpC of 4.31.

Given the slightly superior talent, it's no surprise that both games resulted in point totals near Philly's season average allowed--dead on with 16 in the first game, and then 14 in the outdoor, Philly-hosted playoff game.  The passing and rushing averages are right about where you'd expect, too. There's about a half-yard swing in the run-pass effectiveness balance from the September 20th game to the January 11th playoff game, but that's only natural, as well.

In 2008 (*cough* while Linehan was still the head coach *cough*), Linehan's Rams faced Spagnuolo's Giants.  This should be a better data point, as we have Linehan's offense versus a defense that is truly masterminded by Spagnuolo.  Unfortunately, it’s not a great data point because the Rams were terrible that season, and the Giants were excellent.

The Rams were 30th in points scored, eking out just 14.5 points a game, while the Giants were the 5th-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing just 14.  The Rams were better at running than passing, averaging an okay 3.95 YpC, but only mustering 5.67 YpA.  The Giants were a fairly balanced defense, allowing 6.24 YpA and 3.97 YpC.  You’d expect the score to be well below the Rams’ season average, but it wasn’t: they scored 13 points, only 1.5 below their norm.  Linehan’s Rams mildly outperformed expectations on the ground, gaining a healthy 4.25 YpC.  YpA was right at their season average as well: 5.53 YpA actual vs. 5.67 YpA on the year (this includes their TD, a 45-yard bomb to Torry Holt).

Based on the sole data point between Linehan and Spagnuolo, I'd be tempted to conclude that there’s a massive systemic advantage for Linehan, given that the woeful Rams essentially performed to their season averages against one of the best defenses in the league.  However, giving some consideration to the strong Linehan/Johnson data, the correct conclusion is that given lesser or equal talent, there is a mild systemic advantage for a balanced Scott Linehan offense when facing an aggressive Steve Spagnuolo 4-3, especially when boasting an effective inside running game.

So far this season, the Lions have mustered a respectable 17.2 points per game, good enough to be ranked 23rd in the league.  That doesn’t sound impressive unless you are a Lions fan.  Averaging a (pretty poor) 5.50 yards per pass attempt and (kinda okay) 3.74 yards per rushing attempt, the Lions haven’t had a talent/execution advantage over, really, any of the teams they’ve faced so far.  Then again, they haven’t yet faced the Rams.

Ranked 30th in the NFL, the Rams’ defense has been allowing 30.1 points per game, an appalling 7.83 YpA, and a not-much-better 4.30 YpC.  Given a definite execution advantage and a mild systemic advantage, the Lions should strongly outperform expectations--and their season averages.  I would expect 24-27 points, 6.5 to 6.75 YpA, and 4.0 to 4.25 YpC. I have medium confidence in this projection.

Intangibles:

I credited much of Linehan's systemic advantage over Spagnuolo to a strong inside running game--it may have drawn coverage up, reopening the deep pass.  However, the Lions have struggled with this.  Spotty interior line play has led to a constant rotation of personnel, culminating this week with the insertion of veteran reserve RT Jon Jansen at LG.  Also, I’d like to note that while the sack numbers put up by Spagnuolo defenses versus Linehan offenses are alarming, those Spagnuolo defenses were all top five defenses.  These Rams are ranked 22nd in the NFL in sacks, with 12.

While both Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are listed as questionable, Stafford took all the first-team reps on Friday, but Megatron still appeared limited.  At this point it’s unquestionable that the Lions are  a much better offensive team with them both in the lineup; it remains an open question as to how much better the Lions are with just one able to go.

Ultimately, Stafford’s return should give the Lions improved QB play over their season average.  Combined with St. Louis’ horrific pass D, the Lions should still strongly outperform their averages on offense.  Therefore, I’m calling the intangibles a wash, and presuming that Megatron’s presence, or lack thereof, will simply push the Lions’ performance to the high end, or low end, of my projections.

Pat Shurmur versus Gunther Cunningam:

Shurm	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
PHI	TEN	4th	25.9	6.18	4.54	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	24	5.89	2	3.64	6-31
PHI	KCC	18th	19.4	5.93	3.92	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	37	7.69	1	1.65	1-1
STL	DET	32nd	8.6	5.25	4.38	31st	31.3	7.83	4.65

Really, this should be a very, very, very short section, consisting of one sentence: this is Pat Shurmur's first season as an offensive coordinator.

However, much like Jim Zorn, Shurmur has been a position coach, primarily the quarterbacks coach, under a 10th-degree Walsh Offense Ninja Master--in this case, Andy Reid. While Shurmur has been a valued assistant to Reid since 1999, he's not even been the second banana at any points in that stretch. Therefore, this limited data is of questionable use--though Shurmur has indeed "forklifted" Reid's offense from Philly to St. Louis.

In 2002, Reid’s Eagles met Schwartz/Gun’s Titans, and the Eagles were an impressive offense: ranked 4th in the league with 25.9 PpG, passing for 6.18 YpA (doesn’t sound amazing, but remember, short Walsh passes), and running for a thumping 4.54 YpC.  Still, the Titans weren’t a wet-tissue defense.  Ranked 11th in scoring D with 20.2 PpG, they were beatable through the air (6.30 YpA), but stouter against the run (3.83 YpC).  The results were right in line with expectations: the Eagles scored 24 points, slightly under their average.  They were held to 5.89 YpA, slightly under their average.  However, they were also held to 3.64 YpC, nearly a full yard less than their average.  Interestingly, Reid’s Eagles were also intercepted twice, and sacked 6 times for –31 yards.

In 2005, Reid's Eagles met Cunningham's Chiefs. The Eagles were much less terrifying that season, ranked 18th with 19.4 PpG.  Passing for slightly fewer yards per attempt (5.93) and, significantly, rushing for far fewer yards per carry (3.92).  The ‘05 Chiefs were ranked lower than the ‘02 Titans (16th vs. 11th) despite having very similar numbers in PpG (20.2 vs. 20.3), YpA (6.30 vs. 6.58), and YpC (3.83 vs. 4.10).  Astoundingly, the Eagles went completely gonzo: 37 points, and 7.69 YpA.  However, most of that can be explained by one Terrell Owens abusing a poor KC secondary for 11 catches, 171 yards, and a score.  Also, note just one INT and one sack, down quite a bit from the previous matchup’s disruption numbers.  However, there is one key data point: the Eagles ran 17 times for only 28 yards against those Chiefs, for a miniscule 1.65 YpC.

Given how loosely connected these two data points are to Pat Shurmur, and how wildly they vary between each other, I cannot draw a firm conclusion, other than Reid/Shurmur Walsh-style offenses run the football well below expectations when facing a Schwartz/Cunningham aggressive 4-3.

So far this season, the Lions’ defense has been barely better than 2008’s disastrous unit: ranked 31st in points allowed (31.3 PpG), allowing a whopping 7.83 YpA (yes, the exact same number as the Rams’ D, I triple-checked), and slightly better 4.30 YpC.  However, this week brings the cure for what ails them: the dead-last-ranked Rams’ offense is averaging only . . . 8.2 points per game.

Oh, my stars and garters.  That is epically, shockingly, terrifically bad.  I hate to disrespect so proud of a Spartan as Pat Shurmur, but his unit has to be well on the way to being the worst NFL offense ever.  Of course I’m not saying it’s his fault; it’s the fault of the patchwork offensive line, UFL-caliber wideouts, and terrible quarterback play.  Still, as they say, it is what it is.  The Rams absolutely cannot score points. Given their really pathetic 5.25 yards per attempt, their stout 4.38 YpC hasn't really mattered.

Intangibles:

Literally right now, while writing this, Theismann, Papa, and Sharpe just started breaking down this game on the NFL Network. Their consensus was that Steven Jackson is the best player on the field in this game. Combined with the "fact" that the Rams "like" to throw the ball, and the Lions' secondary is weak, all three analysts picked the Rams to win.

For starters, at 5.25 YpA, the Rams can “like” to throw the ball as much as they want, but they don’t throw the ball.  They’re the worst offense in the NFL, even with a stud runningback.  I mean, even if the Rams drastically outperform their averages through the air, they’ll still be subpar. 

Moreover, Steven Jackson has been Steven Jackson for years now, and it hasn’t helped the Rams win lots of games this year any more than it did last year or the year before.  When you have no defense, and no receivers, and no offensive line, and your quarterback has turned to dust . . . well, having a workhorse power back who grinds out 4.5 YpC 4.5 yards at at time isn’t going to score enough points to outscore any better offense--and this year, every offense in the NFL is better than the Rams'.

Therefore, given no talent advantage for either side, and only a very questionable systemic advantage for Cunningham defenses against the running game of Reid/Shurmur offenses, I expect the Rams' output will meet expectations.  This means they should outpace their season averages: I project 10-13 points, 5.60-5.80 YpA, and 4.5-4.75 YpA.  I have medium-low confidence in this projection.

Well, there you have it, folks: 24-27 points for the Lions, 10-13 points for the Rams.  According to my analysis, the Lions should not only win, but cover the spread.  That is interesting news indeed.  Again, I deeply apologize to you, my readers, for the lateness of the post--but I hope you'll find it the most worthwhile Watchtower yet.  If the Lions win 24-13 we're all going to Vegas next week, okay?  For now, though, I'll be happy if I could just find a place to watch the game . . .

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