On Taking the Wind

Marty Mornhinweg is not the worst head coach in NFL history.

Deadspin's Drew Magary and Dom Cosentino asserted the opposite late last week, based partly on Mornhinweg's 5-27 record as head coach, but mostly on the HILARIOUS STUPIDITY of taking the wind in overtime.

The article makes a lot of cogent points about the NFL having moved beyond coaches getting "hired to be fired," straight into a swirling vortex of hiring blatantly unqualified candidates to turn around talentless rosters, and poleaxing them if they don't immediately succeed.

As I've written before, trying to catch "lightning in a bottle" is the wrong way to hire a coach. As often as not, the young coach who pretends to have the NFL figured out is found out. (see: McDaniels, Josh).

Mornhinweg, in a way, was the model for this particular way to fail. Not only was he not an experienced NFL head coach, the 38-year-old had never been a head coach at any level. He'd been calling plays under Steve Mariucci in San Francisco for only two years, and the 49ers were 10-22 over that span.

Mornhinweg was hired to be fired, quite literally. As rumor had it, Matt Millen's relationship with Mooch was part of the reason the Ford family entrusted the franchise to Millen. Mornhinweg was basically there to install Mariucci's flavor of the Bill Walsh offense and keep Mooch's seat warm.

On December 31st, 2002, Millen announced that the Lions would be retaining Mornhinweg for a third season. Then Mariucci was unexpectedly let go by the 49ers. Three weeks after the public vote of confidence Mornhinweg was awkwardly terminated; a week after that the prodigal Yooper returned.

Marty Mornhinweg was then, and is now, a gifted offensive coach with a bright future. Mornhinweg did a lot of learning on the job, which included a contrived move-for-move reenactment of a Mike Holmgren training camp tirade-and-motorcycle-peel-out. Lions veterans profoundly did not buy it.

One thing Mornhinweg got right, though—or at least, did not get as wrong as everyone thinks—was taking the wind on that fateful day.

Now-defunct site Football Commentary did a beautiful win-probability analysis of the decision back in 2004. I can't find anything today that backs this assertion up, but my memory is that all 34 points scored in regulation that day had been scored with the wind.

I've talked and written many times about football's hilariously risk-averse culture, wherein even the game's greatest coach is pilloried for maximizing win probability instead of "playing the percentages" when he doesn't get a result.

In reality, Mornhinweg's mistake was accepting a holding call on a 3rd-and-8 incompletion that would have forced the Bears to send Paul Edinger out for a 42-yard kick into the hellacious wind—or even wave the white flag and send out Brad Maynard to punt it away. Had the Lions gotten the victory with that decision, Mornhinweg's outside-the-box decision would have been lauded as crazy-like-a-fox, instead of idiotic.

[Ed.- Per request, I used the Advanced NFL Stats WP calculator to judge this decision. The Bears had a 0.68 WP at 4th-and-8 from the 35, and an 0.62 WP at 3rd-and-18 from the 45. However, this is based on modeled leaguewide historical expectations, and wind into the teeth of which none could score is certainly unexpected.]

Continuing to shame Mornhinweg over that call is stupid and destructive and misses the point: Marty Mornhinweg was a great position coach, hired as a Plan D, and put into an impossible situation. 

Mornhinweg took over a not-talented-enough roster filled with veterans not much younger than he was, a brand-new front office with no idea what they were doing, got saddled with a No. 3 overall rookie quarterback he wanted nothing to do with, then was forced to lie through gritted teeth that he was completely on board hitching his career to Joey Harrington.

Mornhinweg made a lot of mistakes, but taking the wind wasn't one of them. Unlike Rich Kotite or Dennis Erickson or many of the others on the list, Mornhinweg has proven he's a quality NFL coach—and before long, will get another head-coaching gig.

Let's just hope he stays away from motorcycles.

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Haunted By Hope: The Ghosts of Lions Past

So here’s the headline on Tom Kowalski’s latest mailbag:

Three reasons why the Detroit Lions have 'real' hope this year

Those quotes express life as a Lions fan. When has our hope been real? When have the Lions truly been building something worthwhile? When has it all been a fraud? What’s the tipping point between being sure success is right around the corner, and living in a fantasyland?

History sees only the scoreboard; many insist it’s the only real metric. In this respect Jim Schwartz’s Lions have yet to eclipse Rod Marinelli’s, or Steve Mariucci’s. In fact, of the eight non-interim Lions head coaches in my lifetime, only Marty Mornhinweg and Daryl Clark failed to notch at least one 6-win season. At this point, the 2011 Lions are no different than the 2008 Lions, or the 2005 Lions, or 1998, or 1996, or . . . All rode on waves of exceeded expectations from the year before, all were full of reasons to hope, and all took a unexpected step back—or an unimaginable plunge into the abyss.

It’s hard to forget these hopes, these expectations; it’s the unexpected flipside of my role as the Flamekeeper. My constant vigil and long perspective allows me to accept harsh disappointment, internalize it, and keep cheering. Yet, when I’ve been convinced the Lions were on a forkless Yellow Brick Road to success, and they’ve failed, it’s stuck with me. These collapsed Lions teams, these unmade dynasties-in-the-making, they haunt me like ghosts.

In the NFL, success and failure balance on the edge of a knife. I’ve pointed before at October 2, 2005 as the day Mariucci’s Lions were undone. When five years of kitting the Lions’ roster together by the 49ers’ pattern unravelled:

It was Harrington’s first signature comeback drive, an efficient 81-yard march ending with a well-placed 12-yard touchdown pass—that got taken away by review. Despite the play being ruled a touchdown on the field, and the ball being in Pollard’s hands while he was in bounds, the ref overturned the call, and the Lions’ season momentum evaporated.

Obviously, Joey Harrington was not then, never became, and likely never would have become a great NFL quarterback. But flip that one bit from “0” to “1”, and instead of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Falcons sealing Mariucci’s fate, it’d have been the first time the Lions dipped below .500. Yes, that’s right: if that touchdown doesn’t get called back, the Lions carry a .500 or better record into Thanksgiving.

Instead, it all fell apart. With fans publicly, and teammates privately, incensed with Harrington’s subpar play, Mariucci didn’t support his quarterback. Instead, he made plain his frustration with Harrington, and propped up Jeff Garcia at every opportunity. Mariucci’s failure to groom Harrington into a winner—and by extension, failure to make Millen look good—cost Mooch his job.

In an alternate universe somewhere, the Mariucci Lions worked. Charles Rogers’ collarbone held together, Roy Williams remained a terrifying big-play threat, and Mike Williams developed into a stalwart possession receiver [Ed.—Heck, that happened in this universe]. Joey Harrington became the triggerman for an offense bristling with diverse weapons. Space was opened up in the front seven for Kevin Jones to work his magic. A solid scoring defense, and exceptional special teams units, rounded out a team you could rely to win about 59.1% of its games—just as Mariucci did in San Francisco.

I loved that team. The hometown coach, the star wideout I partied with in college, cerebral, misfit quarterback I always said I’d be were I born into a 6’-4”, 240-pound body with a rocket arm. I believed that team was on its way—just as I believe this team is, too. I had more doubts in 2008 and 2005 than I have in 2011, but I knew the Lions were on the path to success. For every nice thing an analyst has said about Jim Schwartz, I can someone citing Mariucci’s track record, or claiming they’d run through a brick wall for Marinelli after interviewing him. We can wax philosophical until we’re blue in the face, and we can cite Statistical Great Leaps Forward—but if the Lions go 5-11 this season, all of the optimism this offseason will seem just as ludicrous as me claiming Mariucci was a bad call away from taking the Lions to the promised land.

Look, I know the Lions are doing it right this time. I know Jim Schwartz was an excellent hire. I know the Lions are going to make the playoffs this year. But don’t forget, Joey Harrington once knew he could play in this league . . . I and knew he was right.

“The Young Guns of The NFL.” Drew Brees, Michael Vick, and Tom Brady, all getting second billing to Joey Ballgame—it makes us shake our head now, but it made our heads spin then. Was it madness to hope the Lions were building something great? Foolishness? To borrow a phrase, audacity? Or was it something real, something true, unjustly undone by the pernicious whims of fate and a razor-thin margin for error?

I can’t mull this over without considering the reverse: what if the Lions are successful this year, and it’s not for real? What if fortune and variance smile on the Lions, and they make a deep playoff run—followed by years of mediocrity? What if this is all the prelude to another Fontes era, where tantalizing tastes of glory are chased with bitter failure, year after year after year? How cruelly will that Lions team haunt us?

As we speak of madness and fantasy worlds, let me quote the great Albus Dumbledore who said “It is our choices that define us, Harry, far more than our abilities.” It’s our choice to make of the Lions what we will. The battle between Optimists and Pessimists has raged on Lions message boards since there’s been an Internet, and it rages still. Anyone can point to any number of reasons to hope, just as anyone can point to any number of reasons to believe it “when they see it.” I choose to hope, and so that hope is real.

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Neither Rain nor Snow nor sleet . . . Post-Draft Mailbag!

Two weeks after the NFL draft, we’ve had some time to digest, to mull, to ruminate . . . and now, I’ll take some time to postulate, regurgitate, and bloviate.  First, two weeks hence, the annual NFL Draft “silly season” seems like a bad nightmare.  People were talking about the Lions dealing for Albert Haynesworth, and the Browns moving up for Sam Bradford, like actual things that might actually happen.  How ridiculous does that seem now?

I've always used this rule of thumb: whatever the "consensus" is two weeks before the draft is most likely what will happen. Therefore:

The Rams will rectify their smoking crater at quarterback, and draft Sam Bradford.

The Lions, despite clearly wanting to trade down, won't have a partner. They'll happily take Ndamukong Suh, they just won't be happy about his contract.

The Buccaneers will giddily take whichever of the DTs makes it out of the top 3.

The Redskins will draft Chris Samuels' eventual replacement, and Jon Jansen's next temporary replacement, at 1.4--either Okung or Williams, whomever they fancy.

The Chiefs will either continue rebuilding their incredible offensive line of the past decade with a left tackle, or address their odious secondary with Eric Berry.

Yeah, pretty much.

I’ve gotten some nice email in the aftermath of the draft, so I figured I’d answer the burning questions while they’re still . . . uh, burning.  First up, Beau asks:

I'm one of those lions fans who was on the not so fired up side of the Best pick. After watching some highlight film I'm trying to have a change of heart. Best seems to have great speed and vision and seems to give 110% every time he touches the ball, but he's just so dang small. I could he him catching a screen or bootleg or even kick returning but an every down between the tackles back??? I'm not so sure. What are your thoughts on Best? How will he be used??

First of all, Jahvid is listed at 5’-10”, 199.  Barry Sanders was generously listed at 5’-8”, 180 [UPDATE: several commenters correctly have cried foul: Barry measured 5'-7 5/8", 203 pounds at the 1989 combine].  Even if Best didn’t have ideal size for an NFL speed back, which he does, I’ve never believed in the generally accepted truism that small backs are injury-prone.  Warrick Dunn spent over a decade running hard between the tackles and rarely got hurt, while big, powerful backs like Brandon Jacobs and Stephen Davis have struggled mightily with injuries.

Kevin Smith is theoretically on track to be completely healthy by the start of the season, but “completely healthy” and “peak form” are two different things.  Silent Bob brings a lunchpail mentality to his job, and he’s been rehabbing hard—but you can’t blow three knee ligaments to shreds at the tail end of one season, and be at the top of your game by the start of the next.  Smith will have a role to play, and an important one—but right now Best is the lead dog, and will be until someone takes that collar from him.

I don’t think Best will get 30 carries a game, but only because that’s not really the way the NFL works anymore.  I could see Best getting 15-25 carries, while Smith gets 5-15 depending on his health, effectiveness, and the game plan.  I could also see the two of them on the field at the same time—and no, not with Smith at fullback.

The next email comes from Daniel, who was completely stoked about the draft:

I was reading some of the latest posts on your site, and obviously saw your writings about the draft. On that point, this is the best I have felt coming out of the draft weekend EVER . . . . These six selections, in addition to our trades, make for a truly excellent draft. It has to be in the running for best in the entire NFL. Here's to the Lions in 2010! RESTORE THE ROAR!!!

I didn't quote the whole email; Daniel (rather effectively) broke down every single pick, and came up with much love for every one of them.  I, honestly, have been more excited about a Lions draft; I was a huge Barry Sanders fan when he was in college; in like second grade I was such an Oklahoma State Cowboy booster I made T. Boone Pickens blush.  When he came to the Lions it was like a decade of unbridled glee.

I had a similar level of stoked-ness after the 2003 draft: Charles Rogers, a kid I went to State with, a dude I’d hung out with, and a phenomenally talented weapon that would be the Marvin Harrison to Joey Harrington’s Peyton Manning.  Boss Bailey, the Next Derrick Brooks; Cory Redding, Shaun Rogers’ former linemate; Artose Pinner, the SEC offensive player of the year, Torry Holt’s little brother, to finally help nail down the secondary . . . I was probably more thrilled after that draft than this one.

Part of it is just my age: at twenty-eight, and a rabid draftnik for the balance, I know that half these guys are going to wash out.  At this time in 2020, Tim Toone could be announcing his retirement after ten-year run as one of the NFL’s best possession receivers, and Ndamukong Suh could be yet another in a line of DL hype balloons long burst: Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, DeWayne Robertson, Chris Long . . .

I’m not saying that either of those things will happen, or are even likely.  I’m just saying, it’s almost impossible for all six of these players to become significant contributors to the team; it just doesn't happen that way.

Don't get me wrong, I AM excited about this draft, and I DO think the Lions did exceptionally well.  But there are too many questions about Spievey and Fox, and too few picks after Suh and Best, for me to be running naked through the streets about what an incredible, unbelievable, no-doubt-about-it-we-got-six-future-starters draft this was. 

The next question actually comes from the newest Lions blogger, Joe Dexter.  Joe’s not new to Detroit sports blogging—check out Motor City Bengals for some of his past work—but he’s now on the masthead at the SideLion Report!  Via Twitter, Joe asked:

Was there any mind boggling picks that didn't make sense to you considering players still available and team needs?

The Jets' entire draft! Of course, I was infuriated by the Jets snaring Kyle Wilson; a perfect fit for the Lions, and an salve for all of their cornerback wounds.  The Jets already have Darrell Revis and Antonio Cromartie, so either Cro or Wilson will platooning, or they took the most complete corner in the draft to be their nickel guy.  Fellas, I don’t know if you were paying attention, but you got to the AFC Championship game on the strength of your defense, and your beleaguered rookie quarterback won’t even get to use his best weapon until five weeks into the season.

They made up for it a bit with OT/OG Vladimir Ducasse, though he’s a project and they needed an impact player.  But then, Joe McKnight?  With Tomlinson and Greene already in the fold?  Why didn’t they  just hang on to Leon Washington, who’s the same player, only better?

The Chargers letting Tomlinson go, then trading way up for Ryan Mathews, then totally failing to address the interior line was mind-boggling.  Look at how both Tomlinson’s and Sproles’s per-carry numbers fell off the face of the Earth last year, even as Rivers played well and Vincent Jackson finally had that breakout season.  The holes just weren’t there, and they won’t be there for Mathews either.

I have no idea what the Bills are going to do with C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, no quarterback, no offensive line, and a good 4-3 defense's talent playing in a 3-4 alignment.  The Bills then reached for the DT they need but don’t have in the second round . . . we’ve seen how well reaching for rookies in the second round, because they fit your new defensive scheme, works.  This is going to be a total disassembly-and-reassembly by Gailey, and I don’t think anyone believes he’s that kind of a franchise architect.

Jermaine Gresham's a tremendous prospect—but the Bengals' OC, Bob Bratkowski, has absolutely no use for him.  No Bengals TE has caught more than 31 balls since Bratkowski took over signal-calling duties, so what they’re going to do with a pure pass-catching tight end, I don’t know.

Finally, Dustin (@Dustin_aka_D on Twitter) asked:

do you think any of the Millen era coaches could win with the new front office? Were there good coaches in bad situations?

Marty Mornhinweg, many felt at the time, was an up-and-coming young QB coach, on track to become an excellent offensive coordinator, and maybe someday even a head coach—when the Lions hired him as a head coach.  He landed as an offensive assistant in Philly, and slowly moved his way up the ranks to offensive coordinator.  If Kevin Kolb explodes in 2010, Marty Mornhinweg is going to be a hot candidate in 2011 or 2012.

Clearly, however, he was nowhere near ready for the top job back in 2001, and some of his mistakes—like opening traning camp by aping Mike Holmgren’s dramatic Harley ride—were borne of that inexperience.  Since he was only ever a placeholder for Steve Mariucci, I don’t think Mornhinweg could possibly have been a long-term success here at the time . . . but I do think he’ll be either an excellent OC, or a reasonably good head coach, at some point in his career.

Steve Mariucci was an excellent coach, and he absolutely got railroaded here.  His performance was handcuffed to Joey Harrington’s, though, and it’s clear that he had no regard whatsoever for Joey.  You could see, through Mooch’s managing of Harrington and Jeff Garcia, that he thought plugging in Garcia would provide an immediate upgrade, obvious to all—unfortunately, Garcia was hurt, and wasn't that great to begin with.

Ultimately, I think Mooch was a poor fit.  His NFL head coaching success came at San Francisco, at the tail end of the great dynasty.  Everything about the organization dripped class and excellence, and the roster was full of savvy veterans who’d spent their entire careers in the same system Mariucci was coaching.  In Detroit, Mooch did all the little things really, really well . . . but he was given a roster of total greenhorns who had no idea how to play professional football.  The Lions needed a forceful leader and a teaching coach, not a polished professional who trusted his players to be the same.

If *this* front office had hired Mooch?  I think it would have worked.  Look how the front office has gone out and gotten guys like KVB and Burleson, players who were clearly picks of the coaching staff.  Look how they’ve dramatically cleaned house, and addressed obvious needs with right-price players.

There’ve been no “Ooh, shiny!” picks like Boss Bailey—where a pressing need was “addressed” by handing the starting job to the prospect with the best combine numbers.  Further, there’s been no pressure to play the players that were “management picks”.  Note that when Derrick Williams made the least of his opportunities in training camp, he wasn’t promoted to the starting lineup midseason, with a grumpy “no comment” from Schwartz.

Going forward, if Mooch could take over a franchise where the WCO is in place, where he could either sign or draft his starting quarterback, and the front office is both competent and fully behind him, he could make a glorious return.  However, I think he’s come to realize that he’s pretty damned good at this TV analyst thing—and his wife and children, who always preferred life on the Left Coast, are happier this way.  I can’t fault the guy for making that decision.

Rod Marinelli?  I’m told he’s a great defensive line coach.

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