Watchtower Review: Lions at Buccaneers

From the season’s first Watchtower:

While highlighting the extreme paucity of data, I’m going to swallow hard, wipe the sweat from my forehead, tug at my collar and project the most likely outcome to be another narrow Lions victory: 24-21, albeit in regulation this time.

Now, the final score was 27-20, but the Watchtower only accounts for offense-defense interaction. For the purposes of Watchtower evaluation the “real” score was 27-13. Before you folks cry foul, a quick reminder: the goal of The Watchtower is to spot systemic advantages that the Lions’ offense and defense have over their opponents’ schemes. Counting special teams and return scores throw off our evaluation of those effects.

Detroit Lions defense vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense:

I can’t identify a systemic advantage from one data point. Disproportionately disrupting scoring by stopping drives with sacks is the design goal of the defense. I’m kind of stunned it worked with Blount being so devastating; I expect the Bucs to give Blount more than 15 carries this Sunday. We have no current performance data to go on, so I’ll have to recycle last year’s. I project the Bucs’ offense will meet expectations, scoring 20-23 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Right off the bat, we see the enormous difference: instead of LeGarrette Blount destroying the Lions at a 7.33 YpC clip, he was held to just 15 yards on 5 carries; a 3.0 YpC. As a team, the Bucs didn’t fare much better: 16 carries for 56 yards, 3.50 YpC.

The Lions’ pass rush didn’t hit home quite as often as last year’s contest, or for as many negative yards (two for -7 vs. three for -25). But, there was just enough pressure to rattle Freeman a bit.

Freeman’s completion percentage was nearly identical, 65.1% to last year’s 65.6%, but his yards-per-attempt was down dramatically. Freeman netted only 5.78 YpA this year—well off last year’s average of 6.80, and well well off the 7.64 he managed against the Lions last season. Between the there-enough-to-be-felt pressure and the excellent downfield coverage, the Bucs’ passing offense had to settle for underneath stuff—again, depressing scoring.

The Lions also intercepted Freeman once, and forced four fumbles, recovering one. Last season, the Bucs didn’t give away the ball at all, so two turnovers this time doubtlessly depressed scoring. We don’t have season averages to work with, but I ascribe this better-than-expectations performance to the Lions’ defense skill level being vastly improved. Over the course of 2011, I expect the Buccaneers to ouutperform their 2010 scoring average—meaning this Lions defense performed like an above-average unit on Sunday.

Detroit Lions offense vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense:

The story is basically the same in reverse: the Lions more-or-less met expectations last time. Without any established trends for this year, I can only project the Lions’ offense to meet expectations, scoring 21-24 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Of course, the Lions offense did outperform my “wildazzed guess,” as one MLive wag (downbeat) called it. As with the Bucs’, the Lions rushing attack wasn’t nearly as effective this time around. 35 carries for 126 yards netted only 3.6 YpC—nearly identical potency. But twice as many carries is a strong indicator that the Lions were A) moving the chains and B) winning.

There’s an old saying amongst young statisticians: “You’re not winning because you’re running, you’re running because you’re winning.” The Lions weren’t pounding the rock any better than the Bucs were. They were just effective enough to control the ball and deny the Bucs possession. Tampa Bay couldn’t do the same thing because they were playing catch-up. Once they abandoned the run, the Lions could focus on pass rush and coverage—which, I’ll say it again, was excellent.

Through the air, Matthew Stafford’s execution was visibly worse than it was in the preseason—which, since that was quite nearly perfect, was to be expected. He completed 24-of-33 passes—that’s an astounding 72.7%. He wasn’t just dinking and dunking either: he netted 9.24 YpA; equally astounding. He threw three touchdown passes, not including a perfectly-placed TD pass Brandon Pettigrew dropped, and a wide-open Calvin Johnson He threw one interception, counting one tipped catch that came down in Aqib Talib’s hands, and not counting another one Jahvid Best basically shovel-passed to a stone-handed defender.

Even though the story of the game was correctly told as, “Stafford had the butterflies early and then settled down,” Stafford’s “jittery” performance was still outstanding by any measure. The ongoing performance of the Buccaneers’ defense will tell us a lot about how good the offense was this day. If the Bucs’ D turns out to be as good as many expect, this was an excellent statistical showing by an offense likely to average 30+ points per game the rest of the way out. If the Bucs’ defense is more hype than substance, then this was a pretty okay showing—but not near what we think the offense will be capable of.

Conclusion

I projected a close Lions win in regulation, 24-21. I can’t call it “right” or “wrong” because there was neither a long track record of coordinator matchups, nor any in-season data with which to establish expectations. This 27-13 performance showed us a lot of good things, though: the defense stopped the run and covered downfield better than we expected, and the running game was just good enough to control the game after Stafford built a lead.

There were a lot of mistakes, a lot of missed opportunities, and a lot of room to improve. But overall, this Lions team won on the road against a notional playoff contender—and looked better doing it than we could have hoped for.

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Three Cups Deep: Lions at Buccaneers

I was getting The Fear.

The Lions had clearly established themselves as the better team, put it in cruise control in the third quarter, and inspired rapturous feelings of confidence in me and Lions fans everywhere. But the Lions had surrendered a long drive  to the Bucs for the first time all day—saved by a huge fourth-down stop—and answered with a three-and-out. The Bucs the finally breeched the Lions’ defensive wall; suddenly the forgone conclusion was gone. It was a one-score game.

We’d seen this movie before. Many times before. I took heart, though; surely the Lions’ offense would take matters into their own hands. Jahvid Best had been effective running out the clock all day, and Stafford was completing over 70% of his passes. We’d seen some truly creative playcalling from Linehan today, so maybe . . .

Jerome Harrison. Jerome Harrison. Jerome Harrison. Net gain: four yards. Oh, and then Gosder Cherilus committed an obvious and idiotic penalty to hand the timeoutless Buccaneers a free clock stoppage.

After a mercifully huge Ryan Donahue punt, the suddenly-awake Buccaneers offense now had 1:07 to go 80 yards. If you’ve been a Lions fan for more than five weeks, you know in your heart how this story ends: with the Buccaneers finding a way to make it happen, likely with some assistance from the Lions.

Neil at Armchair Linebacker has written many times about The Fear. It’s the horrible burden Lions fans bear, the shellshocked memories of all the traumatic losses we’ve seen. It’s the psychological reaction to having it come out for the worst time after time after time. We get that sinking, shaking fear in our bellies and we just can’t bear to watch as it all, surely, slips away again, victory just out of reach, another week of wouldas, couldas, and shouldas our only comfort . . . .

Only, this year really is different. This team really is something special. The 2011 Lions are a good team. As in, better than most other teams. The ending didn’t follow that same old script, and the Bucs reduced themselves to ridiculousness trying to do that Stanford many-lateral thing as time expired. Time expired. The Lions WON.

With that, the Lions went to 1-0, starting their season off on the right foot for the first time since 2007. They extended their road winning streak to three games, and overall streak to five. They return home this week to face the battered Kansas City Chiefs, then they travel to Minnesota . . . and suddenly, it looks as though Monday Night Football will be played with a lot more than bragging rights at stake.

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The Watchtower: Lions at Buccaneers

Ahh, the long-awaited Watchtower. For those of you unfamiliar, the Watchtower is my weekly preview of the Lions’ matchup against their opponent. I analyze the prior matchups between the Lions’ coordinators and their opponents’; I look for statistical trends that could reveal a systemic advantage for one side or another. To review prior works, just search for the label “the watchtower.”

Late in the 2010 season, the 4-10 Lions traveled to the 8-6 Bucs. The Lions, of course, dragged a three-year, 26-game road losing streak down to Florida with them. Due to some overambitious scheduling, I couldn’t complete a full Watchtower before that game. I did do some quick analysis, though, and projected a 17-20 Lions loss:

I know the Lions are circling this date as the date the snap the road losing streak--but that losing streak is a mighty dragon, and I don't have enough data to say the Lions will slay it.

Of course, that final score was awfully close; the teams were knotted at 20 after four quarters, and the Lions needed Dave Rayner to convert his third field goal of the day to win it in overtime. How did the Lions outperform offensive expectations that day? Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Greg Olson vs. Gunther Cunningham

Olson

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Gun

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

2010

TBB

20th

21.3

6.80

4.64

DET

19th

23.1

6.75

4.51

20

-6%

7.64

+12%

6.29

+36%

Greg Olson’s name sounds familiar to most Lions fans.

No, not Greg Olsen, Greg Olson.

Yeah, Greg Olson—Detroit Lions quarterbacks coach in 2004 and 2005, and offensive coordinator from when Steve Mariucci got the ziggy to the conclusion of the 2005 season.

Olson’s coaching pedigree is all over the map, and his Lions connections are dizzying. He was OC and QB coach at his alma mater, Central Washington, from 1990-1993. If the name of that NAIA school rings a bell, it’s because Olson oversaw the development of legendary CWU quarterback Jon Kitna.

Olson moved up to take over Idaho’s offensive coordinator gig, left vacant by the departure of Scott Linehan. Olson’s next job was QB coach at Purdue under spread guru Joe Tiller, and from 1997-2000 Olson’s star pupil was one Drew Brees. In 2001, the San Francisco 49ers’ Steve Mariucci hired Olson to coach the quarterbacks; Olson guided Jeff Garcia to his second consecutive Pro Bowl.

After returning to Purdue for one season as recruiting coordinator and tight ends coach, Olson returned to the NFL, again as QB coach, this time for Chicago. When Steve Mariucci was hired in Detroit, he hired Olson to be his quarterbacks coach. Olson actually took over playcalling duties for the Lions for the last three games of the ‘04 season, theoretically to free up Mooch so he could focus on overall coaching.

When Mooch’s overall coaching did not go so well, and the Lions tabbed Gary Moeller Dick Jauron [Ed.- this is why you don't blog the midnight oil] as the interim head man, Olson took over the offensive coordinator duties, as well. Unfortunately, Jauron, Olson, and the rest of the Lions’ staff were broomed to make way for Rod Marinelli and Mike Martz.

Olson found a home in St. Louis, working as offensive coordinator underneath . . . wait for it . . . Rams head coach Scott Linehan. Olson then jumped to Tampa Bay, where he served as quarterbacks coach under OC Bill Muir and head coach Jon Gruden. When Raheem Morris took over, he hired former Boston College head coach Jeff Jagodzinksi—then fired him on the eve of the Bucs’ first preseason game. Olson was then elevated to offensive coordinator.

So. Olson has run the Dennis Erickson spread, the Mariucci WCO, the Joe Tiller spread, the Scott Linehan Dennis Erickson With Double Meat, and the Jon Gruden WCO. He’s coached Jon Kitna, Jeff Garcia twice, and Joey Harrington. Unfortunately, what he hasn’t done with any frequency is coach against Gunther Cunningham.

The Lions didn't play the Chiefs in 2004 or 2005, and when Olson was working with Linehan, Gunther was running Herman Edwards’ Tampa 2, not his usual system. The Lions didn’t play the Bucs in 2009 either, so the most recent clash is all we have to go on.

Last year, the Bucs’ offense was the 20th-most potent in the NFL, racking up 21.3 points per game. They passed for a respectable 6.80 yards per attempt, and ran for a very solid 4.64 YpC. Meanwhile, the Lions had the 19th-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 23.1 PpG, 6.75 YpA, and 4.51 YpC. My expectation would have been for the Bucs to score a little more than usual, while running and passing just as effectively as they typically did.

Instead, the opposite occurred.

The Lions held the Bucs to 20 points; down 6% from their season average. Yet, the Bucs were 12% more effective passing, and a whopping 36% more effective on the ground. This was mostly due to the walloping efforts of LeGarette Blount, who racked up 110 yards on just 15 carries. His 7.33 YpC average on the day was much greater than his season average of 5.0. Tampa Bay protected the ball well, too: no fumbles or picks. So why didn’t the Bucs score more?

Well, the three sacks for 25 yards made an impact; one was on 3rd-and-5, one was on 2nd-and-14, and the last was on 1st-and-10 but was for –14 yards. Two of the three stopped drives. Tampa’s 3rd-down percentage was just 41%, compared to 50% for the Lions. Finally, The Bucs were also penalized nine times for –65 yards.

Unfortunately, I can’t identify a systemic advantage from one data point. Disproportionately disrupting scoring by stopping drives with sacks is the design goal of the defense. I’m kind of stunned it worked with Blount being so devastating; I expect the Bucs to give Blount more than 15 carries this Sunday. We have no current performance data to go on, so I’ll have to recycle last year’s. I project the Bucs’s offense will meet expectations, scoring 20-23 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

The Bucs as a team, the Bucs’ offense in particular, and Josh Freeman in even more particular, are on the rise. Greg Olson’s resumé is stunning (I expect him to be a hot head coaching candidate soon), and Tampa Bay’s offense could be much more potent this year than last. Of course, the same could be said for the Lions’ defense; they’ve dramatically upgraded the back seven, especially against the run. I was stunned at the complete lack of turnovers for both sides; any turnovers in this game could have a big effect on the bottom line.

Scott Linehan vs. Raheem Morris

Lin

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Morris

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

2010

DET

15th

22.6

6.02

3.99

TBB

9th

19.9

6.17

4.75

23

+2%

6.63

+10%

6.46

+62%

Raheem Morris’ path to NFL head coaching is short and sweet. He attended Hofstra University, coached there as a grad assistant, got a job, got hired away by Cornell, got hired back. The Bucs hired him as a quality control assistant, then two promotions, then he went to Kansas State to coordinate their defense for one season, then back to the Bucs as DB coach, then promoted to defensive coordinator after the season, then promoted to head coach a month later when Jon Gruden was fired.

Morris turned 35 a week ago. I turn 30 this weekend. This does not compute.

As a Monte Kiffin disciple, first once then twice removed, Morris runs a more aggressive flavor of the Tampa 2: the “Tampa 2.1.” It’s still smaller D-linemen in one-gap schemes, backed with lots of zone coverage by the linebackers and safeties. But there’s a lot more blitzing, and more press coverage by the cornerbacks.

Last season, the Bucs’ defense tightened up tremendously from 2009: they allowed 19.9 PpG,  a whopping 5.9-point improvement. They went from being the 27th-best offense to the 9th-best, allowing just 6.17 YpA. The run defense was less impressive; offenses averaged 4.75 YpC.

The Lions’ offense finished as the 15th-best unit in the NFL last season, averaging 22.6 points per game. The passing offense was underwhelming, averaging just 6.02 YpA. The running game was an eyelash short of 4.0 YpC, the stoutest season-long team rushing performance from the Lions in quite some time.

In last year’s contest, the Lions scored 23 points, right on target with their season average—considering this was against a top ten scoring defense, that sounds like impressive outperformance of expectations . . . but they needed overtime to do it, and the Bucs were without DT Gerald McCoy. We’ll say they met expectations. However, they netted 6.63 YpA, a modest-but-noteworthy 10% boost above their season average. They also gained a monster 6.46 YpC, a walloping 62% increase. How’d they do it?

Well, Maurice Morris matched LeGarrette Blount’s astonishing 7.33 YpC performance with 7.27 YpC of his own: given the same 15 carry workload, he toted it 109 yards. For those of you trying to figure out whether Jerome Harrison or Keiland Williams will be the backup and change-of-pace back, you may want to re-watch this game.

The story is basically the same in reverse: the Lions more-or-less met expectations last time. Without any established trends for this year, I can only project the Lions’ offense to meet expectations, scoring 21-24 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Well, the Lions will have a healthy Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best this time around; when they had both healthy year they were a much more potent offense. That having been said, this Bucs team went 10-6 last year and figure to be better this year; beating an opponent like that on the road will be no easy task.

Conclusion:

I really wish I had more than one data point to go on. This is a fantastic Week 1 matchup; a really intriguing set of talented units with experienced and clever coaches. Strength of projection aside, I wish these coordinators had had more chess matches against each other! Again, while highlighting the extreme paucity of data, I’m going to swallow hard, wipe the sweat from my forehead, tug at my collar and project the most likely outcome to be another narrow Lions victory: 24-21, albeit in regulation this time.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,tampa bay buccaneers,jim schwartz,gunther cunningham,scott linehan,raheem morris,greg olson

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Fireside Chat: Preseason Review & Season Preview

Okay, so Ustream’s new Producer app and my home internet connection do not like one another. After about five attempts to broadcast a quick tribute to Tom Kowalski, I bitterly gave up. Instead, I just laid down some straight talk (without the usual Q & A/interaction), which you may listen to below:

As always, if you dig what you hear, you can Subscribe vi iTunes for free.

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All My Rowdy Bears Are Scheduled for Monday Night

will they be wearing these terrible jerseys

By now, I’m sure you’ve heard: the Detroit Lions’ 2011 schedule has been released, and not only will the Lions be playing a primetime game, not only will they be playing on Monday Night Football, but the Lions will be hosting the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.

I was there the last time the Lions played on Monday Night Football. It was the first (and last) time I watched the Lions in the Silverdome, and it was a trainwreck of a game where Kurt Warner put on a quarterbacking clinic, while Ty Detmer and Charlie Batch combined to put on a quarterbacking circus. It devolved into chants of “Let’s Go, Red Wings” by the second half. The lone bright spot was getting to move down to 20th-row, 50-yard-line seats in the fourth quarter.

This time, though, the Lions are going to be out for revenge: against the league for blackballing them for so long, and against the Bears for last season’s stolen victory—and I’m going to do everything I can to be there.

But what about, you know, the rest of the games?

Don't be too concerned about the Lions being in a 7-way tie for the third-hardest strength of schedule in the NFL. It is, after all, the NFL—a game rigged to produce parity—and  teams’ winning percentages vary wildly from year to year. There’s a reason I call the exercise of going down the schedule and predicting wins and losses a “Completely Useless Waste of Time.”

If you follow that 2011 NFL Strength of Schedule link, you’ll see the swing in opponent winning percentage is about 5% off of 8-8 in either direction; pretty even considering all the moving parts that go into it. Instead, let’s look at a few key matchups:

Week 1: at Tampa Bay

Last season, I called the Bucs an "alternate reality" version of the Lions:

What if the Lions had brought in a Tampa 2 coach, like Leslie Frazier, and made evolutionary, rather than evolutionary, changes? The Buccaneers drafted Josh Freeman--a quarterback I'd championed as a possibility for the Lions two years ago--and, of course, the "other" monster DT available in this draft, Gerald McCoy. Much ink has been spilled along those lines, so I won't tip over another barrel--but in many ways, the Bucs represent an "alternate reality" version of the Lions.

Yes, the Bucs are an excellent benchmark for the Lions. Last year, of course, the Lions went down to Tampa Bay and won, breaking the eternal road losing streak. Presuming free agency and the draft (and, of course, the season) all happen, attempting to repeat the feat will be a great measuring stick for the Lions. Just like last season, though, this first week will be enormous. Three of the first four games are on the road, and if they don’t win this one they’ll struggle to keep their head above water.

Week 4: at Dallas

The phrase "at Dallas" generates a visceral reaction: “Oh NO! AT DALLAS!” But really, the Cowboys are an aging team coming off a 6-10 season. The Lions played AT DALLAS last season, too—and people forget the Lions were leading by 5 in the 3rd quarter, before the Cowboys were wrongfully awarded a kickoff return touchdown. This time, the Lions will get a chance to right a wrong—and again, if they don’t, they’ll be likely be 1-3 or even 0-4. A win would give them huge buzz and momentum going into Monday Night Football.

The Lions’ schedule softens in the middle: back-to-back home games against San Francisco and Atlanta, a road game against Denver, then the latest bye week the Lions have had in years. I’d expect the Lions to win two of those three.

Week 10: at Chicago

Just five weeks, and four games, after Monday Night Football, the Lions will go to Solider Field for the rematch. I have not been the biggest fan of the Bears’ approach to rebuilding, but Mike Martz and Rod Marinelli both did excellent work last year: Martz adjusted his playbook to match his personnel, and Rod Marinelli got the most out of the Bears’ talented-but-inconsistent defensive line. I’m not sure what to make of the Bears for 2011, but if the Lions win on MNF, I suspect the Bears get one back here. This one will have major playoff implications—for both teams.

Thanksgiving: vs. Green Bay

The Lions played the reigning Super Bowl champions very, very tough last season, and the NFL took notice. Scarily, both teams should be better this season, and this Turkey Day matchup should have the nation licking its chops beforehand, and loosening its belt afterwards. I’m expecting this to be one for the ages, and it could very even be for the division lead. By my count, the Lions “should” be one or two games behind the Pack coming into it.

Week 15: at Oakland

Huh? Oakland? Not at New Orleans? Not hosting Minnesota? No, this trip to the Black Hole has all the hallmarks of a trap game. Oakland, for all their many hilarious faults, were an 8-8 team last year—and some of their strengths dovetail obnoxiously with some of Detroit’s weaknesses. A winnable, late-season road game, when the Lions are fighting for a playoff spot in a cut-throat division, is exactly the kind of test the Lions must pass.

Week 17: at Green Bay

If the Lions want to make the playoffs, this is the ultimate crucible. The Lions have not won in Lambeau since before the the first President Bush authorized the first attack of the first Gulf War. The Packers will be defending their division crown very good season last year, and NFL title—and whoever loses the Thanksgiving Day contest will stop at nothing to win this one. The stakes in this game could be anywhere from “Meaningless” to “Winner Gets Division Title and First-Round Bye;” if it’s the latter than we’ll all be ten times more excited about this matchup than we are now about the Monday Night Football game.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,chicago bears,monday night football,2011 nfl schedule

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Three Cups Deep: Lions at Buccaneers

Again.  Again, the Lions’ defense—which had held the opponent in check all game long—had turned to wet tissue in the fourth quarter.  Again, the Lions had one drive to win or lose the game.  Again, I knew, the Lions would get a couple of first downs and then either commit the big turnover, or the stupid penalty.  If the universe was feeling especially cruel, I knew, the Lions would get within decently-easy field goal range--then miss the field goal.  Having lived my entire life a Lions fan, I knew the question wasn’t how the Lions could win, but how they would lose.

It wasn't helping my sense of foreboding that the scoreboard showed exactly what I'd predicted in my ill-formed not-Watchtower: 17-20 Lions.  Drew Stanton took over at the 32, and immediately threw an incomplete pass.  2nd-and-10, and memories of the Eagles game flooded my head: the would-be tying “drive” merely four straight incompletions.  But then, Drew went to work.  Alternately hitting Bryant Johnson and Calvin Johnson—and, my Lord, what a catch Calvin Johnson made—Drew got the Lions into field goal range. 

The first time my heart stopped was when Drew took at shot at the end zone,  going again to Bryant Johnson, whose defender had slipped downfield.  With the pass sailing clean into the end zone, Bryant couldn’t quite get his wheels underneath him, either, and a sure touchdown bounced harmlessly off the turf.  Why?  WHY?

Drew kept his head on, though, and completed a pass to Scheffler that brought the Lions to the Buccaneers’ ten-yard-line with just eight seconds left.  Now, it was real.  Now, the Lions faced a true choice: should they take a shot at the end zone—and lose by interception, or clock?  Or, should they try a 28-yard field goal that, despite its close range, was guaranteed to be shanked, blocked, bad-snap’d, or some other awful thing that’s never even happened before?  I thought to myself, I’d rather the Lions lose on a Drew Stanton interception while going for the win, than by Mysterious Dave Rayner Miss while going for the tie.  Fortunately, Schwartz keeps big brass ones downstairs, and they went for the jugular. 

The fade pass that Drew Stanton threw was perfect.  Perfect.  He put it exactly where it needed to be, and Calvin went up and over the cornerback for it, as he’d done many times before.  Myron Lewis, the Bucs’ cornerback, simply made a great play.  If he didn’t play that absolutely perfectly, the game would have ended right there.  Another game-winning Lions touchdown bounced harmlessly off the turf.  I crumpled.

So Dave Rayner and the Lions set up to kick on the sloppy, nasty grass, and I bit my nails and paced nervously and chain smoked and everything old cartoon characters do when everything is on the line.  I flop-sweated, I whimpered quietly, my knees knocked (even though I was sitting on the edge of my seat).  Then the snap, the kick . . . good.  The Lions would delay their heartbreaking loss—and my heartbreak—for a little while longer.

But then, something funny happened: the Lions won the toss.  That’s not how this script goes.  That’s not what’s supposed to happen.  Come on Universe, I thought, don’t play me like this.  Don’t get me believing it could happen.  Don’t make this hurt more than it already will!  But  the script had flipped: it was the Jets game in reverse.  The Lions could not be denied:  Maurice Morris and Jahvid Best gashed the Bucs for yards and yards.  Drew hit Calvin Johnson again, and Mo Morris shaved another ten yards off.  Rayner lined up, and my last nerves unravelled. 

The snap, the kick, the hold . . . GOOD!  GOOD!  GOOD!  JIM SCHWARTZ FIST PUMP!  MEGATRON SMILE A BILLBOARD WIDE!  THE STREAK IS OVER!  THE STREAK IS OVER!  THE STREAK IS OVER!  Our family jumped for joy, hugging and hooting and hollering and high-fiving all over the living room.  For once, for once, this game ended the right way.

Later that night, as I was getting ready for our kids' Christmas pageant, I noticed something in the mirror: there, at the edge of my goatee, was my very first gray hair.

I love this stupid team so much.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,tampa bay buccaneers,calvin johnson,drew stanton

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Fireside Chat: Lions at Buccaneers

THE LIONS WON.  ON THE ROAD.  I TALKED ABOUT IT:

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,tampa bay buccaneers,podcast

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The (Fallen) Watchtower: Lions at Buccaneers

First: apologies. This is not, in fact, a Watchtower. The runup to Christmas--as well as my ambition in cranking out the offensive piece and the Jahvid Best in the past few days--has left me without a Watchtower to present to you.

Much like the Rams, the Bucs hold a mirror up to the Lions: what if the Lions had brought in a Tampa 2 coach, like Leslie Frazier, and made evolutionary, rather than evolutionary, changes? The Buccaneers drafted Josh Freeman--a quarterback I'd championed as a possibility for the Lions two years ago--and, of course, the "other" monster DT available in this draft, Gerald McCoy. Much ink has been spilled along those lines, so I won't tip over another barrel--but in many ways, the Bucs represent an "alternate reality" version of the Lions.

At an even 20.0 points per game, the Bucs' scoring offense is ranked 22nd in the NFL. The Lions' defense is about it's equal, ranked 23rd and allowing 23.8 points per game. It sounds reasonabale to split the difference: 20-23 points for the Bucs.

On the other side of the ball, the Lions are the 17th-ranked offense, scoring 21.9 points per game. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are allowing 20.5 points per game, good for 13th-best in the NFL. If we split the difference, that's . . . 19-22 points.

Without any systemic advantages to guide us, and with rashes of injuries to both teams, I'm left with a 17-20 Lions loss.. I know the Lions are circling this date as the date the snap the road losing streak--but that losing streak is a mighty dragon, and I don't have enough data to say the Lions will slay it.

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Dré Bly is Not a Cancer (He’s a Gemini)

One of the interesting things about the blogosphere is the “echo chamber” effect.  In  media, the “echo chamber” is a phenomenon where a rumor makes its way to a media source, who shares it or alludes to it, some media outlets report the rumor, many media outlets report on reports of the rumor, and eventually the sheer volume of reports bouncing off of each other become (presumptive) truth.  An example: the IrishCentral.com report that  Brian Kelly would be hired at Notre Dame, which got picked up by the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, and then the Detroit News, and then they all reported each other reporting this report that, as far as anyone knew, was only a solid guess by some dude’s alias—Sean O’Shea—at a website about everything Irish.  Not everything Notre Dame Fighting Irish, just . . . Irish.

Brian at MGoBlog completely blew up everyone involved in the O’Shea/Kelly echo chamber incident at the time, and deservedly so.  This, though, is an example of the blogging version of an “echo chamber”: since many blogs analyze news rather than report news, one blog will react to another, yet another will react to the other’s reaction, and pretty soon you have analysis of analysis of analysis of analysis . . . whether that’s better or worse than Sean O’Shea taking a well-informed shot in the dark that ricochets all over the media is debatable.

On Sunday, Tom Kowalski at Mlive.com broke down Dré Bly, as he’s done for many key/interesting Lions this offseason.  Besides some cogent, rational analysis of his skills and how they’ve aged, Killer addressed Bly’s character:

There is a notion that Bly might be something of a lockerroom cancer, but just the opposite is true. More than 90 percent of the people in the organization believed the same thing Bly did. Harrington was far from the only reason the Lions were having their issues but, because of his position, Harrington was at the center of it.

Michael David Smith over at ProFootballTalk read Killer’s Bly piece, and posted his reaction take within a few hours:

“For starters, if 90 percent of the people in the Lions' organization really agreed with Bly that ‘Millen did a great job drafting the guys,’ well, then I don't even know what to say . . .”

“None of this is to say that Harrington was a good quarterback in Detroit. He wasn't. But he was far from the only problem. And if 90 percent of the Lions' locker room in 2005 thought Harrington was the "whole problem," that just shows what a clueless group of players the Lions had. Now they've brought one of those clueless players back.”

Well, let’s hope analysis is more like parfaits, and less like onions . . . or ogres.

Let’s re-read that last sentence of Killer’s: “Harrington was far from the only reason the Lions were having their issues but, because of his position, Harrington was at the center of it.”  Yes, because of his position.  Because of his salary.  Because of his repeated failure to progress within the offense.  Because his head coach wanted nothing to do with him, and never did.  Because the front office ceded to the coach’s demands to bring in Jeff Garcia.  Because Jeff Garcia got hurt and blew chunks.  Because Matt Millen refused to admit his mistake.  Because Millen compounded his mistake over and over and over again by refusing to admit it.

Quarterbacks the lynchpin of a football team.  They touch the ball on every offensive play.  Great quarterbacking can elevate mediocre teams to the very summit of the NFL, and bad quarterback play makes everything else irrelevant.  Consequently, quarterbacks are lightning rods for public praise and criticism.  No NFL player will ever be as worshipfully adored as Brett Favre was by Green Bay—and perhaps none will be as viciously despised as Favre now is by Green Bay.

Joey Harrington wasn’t just a quarterback, he was a number three overall draft pick quarterback.  He was a franchise savior, a harbinger and herald of bright futures and blue skies.  He was paid lavishly, he was handed the the keys to the franchise—and he was absolutely unwanted.  The fans didn’t want him.  His teammates didn’t want him.  His coach didn’t want him, either (Marty Mornhinweg, on that fateful draft day, told Kowalski he was behind Harrington’s selection--but later admitted he was flim-flamming).

Not only did Harrington’s failure to click get earn Mornhinweg an awkward dismissal, Matt Millen’s pet project got Steve Mariucci run as well.  With all the drafts from 2003-2005 focusing on “giving Harrington weapons,” and not, for example, restocking the defense, a team that was finally starting to move in a positive direction got dragged back down to the bottom.

"WHAT?" you say. "Positive direction?  During the Millen Era?" Mr. David Smith’s skepticism above not withstanding . . . yeah, positive direction.  In 2004, the Lions had the 18th-best scoring defense in the NFL—which is only mediocre, but it was the last time the Lions’ defense looked nearly so good.  It was also the second-closest thing to a winning season the Lions got in the Aughts.  The 2004 season included a 4-2 start, two road wins, and a season sweep of the Chicago Bears.  Six of the ten losses were by a touchdown or less!  Yes, there was definitely positive momentum heading into 2005.

So what happened?  First, a nice opening win against the Packers—then a horrific 5-INT Harrington implosion against the Bears.  There was an only-the-Lions-get-screwed-like-this Week 3 bye to marinate on it . . . and then, a robbery.  Man, oh man, if I’d been blogging back then, you folks would have needed eye bleach to wash out the vicious, nasty things I’d have written about the Buccaneers’ 17-13 “defeat” of the Lions.

It was Harrington’s first signature comeback drive, an efficient 81-yard march ending with a well-placed 12-yard touchdown pass—that got taken away by review.  Despite the play being ruled a touchdown on the field, and the ball being in Pollard’s hands while he was in bounds, the ref overturned the call, and the Lions’ season momentum evaporated. 

Obviously, Joey Harrington was not then, never became, and likely never would have become a great NFL quarterback.  But flip that one bit from “0” to “1”, and instead of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Falcons sealing Mariucci’s fate, it’d have been the first time the Lions dipped below .500.  Yes, that’s right: if that touchdown doesn’t get called back, the Lions carry a .500 or better record into Thanksgiving.

Instead, it all fell apart.  With fans publicly, and teammates privately, incensed with Harrington’s subpar play, Mariucci didn’t support his quarterback.  Instead, he made plain his frustration with Harrington, and propped up Jeff Garcia at every opportunity.  Mariucci’s failure to groom Harrington into a winner—and by extension, failure to make Millen look good—cost Mooch his job.  Dré Bly speaking this fact aloud didn’t make him a cancer—it made him honest.

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