Old Mother Hubbard: The Tight Ends

The Lions spent the 20th overall pick of the 2009 draft and, indirectly, the eighth overall pick of the 2006 draft on tight ends. That’s a lot of resources to invest in a position that seems to be going the way of the dodo—but offensive coordinator Scott Linehan loves to deploy his two big targets alongside his wideouts, often to great effect.

Let’s check 2010’s Tight End Old Mother Hubbard for where these players left off:

Will Heller is a good rotational blocker, who’s come up with a few nice catches in his time here. He should have a place on the roster for 2011, at least.

Tony Scheffler was signed to a three-year extension right after his great two-game stretch at the beginning of the season; he’ll likely be here through 2013. The player we saw in September was the same player we saw for years in Denver; I can’t believe that guy’s gone for good. Even if he is, “Diminished Scheffler” is a solid receiving TE, who blocks better than you think.

Brandon Pettigrew is young veteran with a huge frame and amazing tools. He’s already an excellent pass blocker, and a very good run blocker. As a receiver, his awful case of the dropsies hurt both his grades and several key Lions drives. Overall, his many penalties did the same. If he can cut down on the mental mistakes, Pettigrew could be one of the best TEs in the game. If not, he’s still a great blocker, and a target defenses must respect.

This is the order in which their PFF grades shook out, which is the opposite of what we’d expect. What about 2011?

The Lions’ top-rated tight end in 2011 was Tony Scheffler. I again quote from last season's report:

Tony Scheffler led all NFL TEs with 25% or more of their teams’ snaps in target-to-snap ratio. Scheffler was thrown to once every 6.3 snaps he played—meaning if he was on the field, he was a major part of the play. He seems to have a very specific niche in the offense, even if it isn’t what we expected.

This season, the pattern continued: Scheffler was targeted once every 7.73 snaps he played, 4th-most in the NFL. He trailed only Jimmy Graham, Evan Moore, and Kellen Winslow; he had the highest yards-per-catch of that group (9th overall) at 13.3. Scheffler also scored six touchdowns; that’s one every 6.83 targets (3rd-best in the NFL) and 52.8 snaps (1st-best in the NFL).

Just from watching, it seemed as though Scheffler was placed on the field the instant the Lions crossed the opponent’s 35, and instructed to go make a touchdown happen. The stats bear this observation out. Inexplicably, Scheffler’s WPA was not calculated by Advanced NFL Stats. He didn’t have a whole mess of reps, but anyone who scores six touchdowns should have had a significant impact on his team’s chances to win. My suspicion is his WPA would be quite high, especially relative to his EPA.

Bottom Line: Tony Scheffler is a weapon. A walking, talking red zone mismatch with ridiculous dance moves. He has a very specific role in this offense and he executes it very well. Expect nothing to change in 2012.

Brandon Pettigrew, on the whole, improved slightly in the eyes of PFF graders, but not relative to other tight ends. In 2010, Pettigrew was marked at –8.0 overall in a season where the TE average was -3.23. In 2011, he graded out at –7.1, and the average was –1.74. This all sounds like it was more of the same, but in fact Pettigrew’s production was completely different:

This is why I do these things. Look at Pettigrew’s 2010 performance: he was a devastating all-around blocker, much better than average in both the ground and air games. He was also a heavily-penalized butterfingers, and as a result his grade was well below-average. This might be slightly harsh. Pettigrew’s athleticism got him open quite often, drawing a lot of passes his way. Sometimes he got his hands on balls other tight ends wouldn’t have been able to . . . but he dropped a lot of the balls he got his hands on.

In 2011, Pettigrew’s performance in the receiving game improved drastically, nearly matching the NFL average. He caught 70.3% of the passes thrown his way, 23rd-best and above the NFL average of 68.5. His pass protection was even improved over 2010, his +3.5 grade 4th-best in the NFL. Unfortunately, he took a big step back in run blocking: from +0.5 to –7.0. Pettigrew’s run-block grade was ranked 40th of 65; well below the 0.0 average.

Unfortunately, Pettigrew's high penalty rate continued: he was flagged 11 times for 117 yards; both of those marks were the worst in the NFL. This is why Pettigrew’s overall mark keeps getting dragged below average: he takes way too many penalties.

Perspective: there’s nothing average about Pettigrew’s production. He caught 83 passes, 3rd-most in the NFL, out of 117 targets—also 3rd-most in the NFL. Those receptions gained 777 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those targets came once every 9.24 snaps, the 13th-most frequent target rate in the game. Unlike Scheffler, a situational specialist targeted once every 7.73 snaps, Pettigrew played almost every down the Lions’ offense did. With 1,081 snaps played, Pettigrew got more reps than anyone in the NFL save Rob Gronkowski.

Bottom Line: Brandon Pettigrew is an enormous part of the Lions’ offense, and will be for the foreseeable future. He grew phenomenally as a pass catcher from 2010 to 2011, apparently at the expense of his run blocking. Pettigrew remains a devastating two-way player, and a truly rare talent. Last year’s assessment remains correct: If he can cut down on the mental mistakes, Pettigrew could be one of the best TEs in the game.

Will Heller was released to make cap room, and has yet to be re-signed. He, or another blocking specialist with not-stone hands, will need to be required. Oops, I missed his re-signing.

SHOPPING LIST: A Will Heller-type, preferably of the rookie variety. Or maybe Will Heller Possibly a developmental rookie, but otherwise the Lions are set here.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Tight Ends

I’m on a breakneck schedule now, trying to wrap this series up before the draft . . . or free agency begins; whichever comes first! We move on to the tight ends, about whom we need another disclaimer: Pro Football Focus grades every TE as a complete package. Typically, if a TE is an impact receiver and a terrible blocker, fans still consider them an impact TE because that’s what we see, and what we can easily measure. Please remember, then that the TE “Pass” grade is not a synthesis of a tight end’s statistics, but a subjective grade of how they actually performed on each play, just like with the linemen and defenders.

The spread this produces is quite interesting: there’s a handful at the top who are good at both receiving and blocking, a handful at the bottom who aren’t good at anything, and a huge hodgepodge in the middle of guys with varying tool sets. At the top of the heap is Jason Witten with the 3rd-best receiving grade, 5th-best pass-blocking grade, and #1 run-blocking grade. The backmarker is Brandon Manumaleuna: 26th of 64 in receiving, 64th of 64 in pass-blocking, and 63rd of 64 in run-blocking.

The highest-rated Lions TE, of course is . . . Will Helller? Yes, with a Blutarskian 0.0 grade, Heller notched the best mark of any Lion TE (NFL average this year was –3.2). He was only thrown at five times, and somehow got dinged for a -0.4 receiving grade in those four plays (NFL average: +0.48). Still, he caught 80% of the balls thrown his way (4 out of 5), for 33 yards and a score.

Heller's primary role is as a blocker, though, and in that he did well. He was graded by PFF at +0.7 in pass blocking (average: 0.0), and +0.1 in run blocking (average: –3.5). So, compared to all TEs who got at least 25% of their team’s snaps (Heller didn’t qualify, only 169), Will Heller was a slightly-above average blocker, slightly better in the run than the pass.

Bottom Line: Will Heller is a good rotational blocker, who’s come up with a few nice catches in his time here. He should have a place on the roster for 2011, at least.

The second-best Lions TE in 2011, according to PFF grades, was Tony Scheffler. The former Western Michigan Bronco was the 21st-best tight end overall. He was a decent +1.2 in receiving, lower than I’d expected, but Heller’s equal in pass blocking at +0.7 (which I didn’t expect, 26th-best). His run blocking was notably worse than Heller’s, graded at –2.6—but that still outpaced the NFL average of –3.5, and slotted him  25th of 64.

Statistically, Scheffler had an up-and-down year. He was thrown at 66 times, and caught 45 of them--percentage-wise, matching the NFL average to the decimal (68.2). What surprised me was his low YpC average, just 8.4 (avg. 10.59). Scheffler is known as a downfield threat, but it seems he wasn’t used that way. His YAC suffered, too—just 4.3 AYaC, compared to the NFL average 5.0.

It’s known that Scheffler suffered a series of injuries throughout the year (concussion, shoulder, ribs), and something definitely seemed amiss with him. After a very strong showing in Weeks 3 and 4, where he hauled in a combined 13 passes for 123 yards (and received +1.3 and +1.4 grades), his production fell off the map. For ten weeks the only non-negative grade he got was a +0.3. He had a particularly awful stretch in weeks 6-10, turning in grades of –1.5, –1.8, –0.1, and a nasty –3.1 against Buffalo. Worse, though, Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew found their role in the offense, and the quarterback carousel seemed to hit Scheffler’s numbers more than than anyone’s . . .

. . . I found an interesting little wrinkle, though: Tony Scheffler led all NFL TEs with 25% or more of their teams’ snaps in target-to-snap ratio. Scheffler was thrown to once every 6.3 snaps he played—meaning if he was on the field, he was a major part of the play. He seems to have a very specific niche in the offense, even if it isn’t what we expected.

Bottom Line: Tony Scheffler was signed to a three-year extension right after his great two-game stretch at the beginning of the season; he’ll likely be here through 2013. The player we saw in September was the same player we saw for years in Denver; I can’t believe that guy’s gone for good. Even if he is, “Diminished Scheffler” is a solid receiving TE, who blocks better than you think.

Now, stunningly, we come to the bottom of the list: the Lions’ #1 TE, Brandon Pettigrew. Let’s clear something up: Pro Football Focus does not grade on “upside.” They do not round up for “potential,” or “excitement.” They don’t even care about the name on the back of the jersey, except to correlate back to the data. All they care about is what a player does, and what Brandon Pettigrew did in 2010 is drop a hell of a lot of passes. 12, to be exact, on 103 targets. Dropping a pass every 8.6 targets gave him the third-most-buttery fingers of any TE with 20 or more targets . . . and a huge factor in his overall –8.0 grade (43rd/64).

It shouldn't come as a surprise, then, that Pettigrew's receiving grade, -5.0, is the fourth-worst in the NFL. It turns out, though, that all that “He’ll be like a third tackle” hype actually does hold water: Pettigrew had the NFL’s 6th-best pass-block grade, a +2.3, and 16th-best run block grade, with +0.5.  Unfortunately, his ridiculous ten penalties assessed gave him the second-worst penalty grade in the NFL.

You wanna know something interesting, though? Even with his extremely high drop ratio, Pettigrew’s receiving percentage (% of targets caught) was actually slightly above average, 68.9 (avg. 68.2). Either his quarterbacks are throwing more accurate passes than everyone else—unlikely, given the Lions’ QB situation in 2010—or maybe, Pettigrew is like a range-y shortstop, making “errors” on balls other people wouldn’t even get to. Further,

Pettigrew’s game-to-game grades are wildly inconsistent—and unlike Scheffler or Cherilus or Sims, there’s no “everything was cool and then it all went bad.” Pettigrew’s grades swing from bad to good to bad to okay to terrible to outstanding to okay, with no rhyme or reason. After turning in a horrific –5.6 against Chicago in Week 13, where he got negative grades in every phase of the game, he thwomped Green Bay with a +3.0 overall, and positive grades in every phase of the game. There appears to be no rhyme or reason.

Bottom Line: Brandon Pettigrew is young veteran with a huge frame and amazing tools. He’s already an excellent pass blocker, and a very good run blocker. As a receiver, his awful case of the dropsies hurt both his grades and several key Lions drives. Overall, his many penalties did the same. If he can cut down on the mental mistakes, Pettigrew could be one of the best TEs in the game. If not, he’s still a great blocker, and a target defenses must respect.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions like to run 2-TE sets, both to for blocking purposes, and for passing purposes. With Pettigrew and Heller, the Lions have a powerful blocking tandem. With Pettigrew and Scheffler, the Lions have a (theoretically) potent receiving combo. This unit didn’t play like it’s capable of in 2010, but even so I see no needs to address. None of these players is perfect, but as a group they’re nearly perfect for this offense.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,team needs,brandon pettigrew,tony scheffler

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Guest Article: Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview at Razzball.com

Anyone who’s a fantasy sports enthusiast, as I am, has spent some time over at Razzball.com.  They blend great fantasy info and advice with snappy writing and actual humor.  I was psyched when Chet from Razzball reached out to me, and asked if  I’d be willing to answer some questions about the Lions’ fantasy outlook for 2010.

Even if I weren’t flattered to be asked—I was—I was thrilled at the notion that someone thought the Lions might be relevant to fantasy football in 2010!  So, I gladly answered Chet’s very-well-informed questions.  Please, check it out here:

Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview at Razzball.com

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,nfl,fantasy football,razzball.com,matthew stafford,calvin johnson,brandon pettigrew,tony scheffler,nate burleson,jahvid best,kevin smith

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Ernie Sims to the Eagles, Tony Scheffler to the Lions

While I was grabbing some lunch, news broke: Martin Mayhew had looked in the Wheeler Dealer and pulled himself off another swap—this time, trading Ernie Sims to the Eagles, a 5th-rounder from the Eagles to the Broncos, and TE Tony Scheffler from the Broncos to the Lions.  The Lions also got yet another seventh-round pick, bringing the total up to four.

I haven’t been shy about reminding everyone that way back in January, I wrote an article for Mlive.com, proclaiming that Martin Mayhew must trade Sims while he still has value.  My first proposed trade destination was Philadelphia, and I bugged poor Adam Caplan from Scout.com about that idea for weeks, because the fit just made too much sense.  I’ve also been obnoxious in pointing out that I pointed out that the retirement of Casey FitzSimmons left an empty niche in the Lions’ offense.

My apologies to all of you for the insufferable self-promoting.  I have no access to “insider” info; everything you read is coming from my own synthesis of what’s out there.  When I stumble upon an acorn, as I rarely do, I enjoy planting it, watching it grow into a mighty oak, then hanging my hat upon it.  My apologies if I've annoyed you; I rarely indulge in such own-horn-tooting, and I’m done now.

First impressions?  This is practically identical to the Cory Redding-for-Julian Peterson trade.  These two players, Sims and Scheffler, both had a foot out the door in their original cities.  Neither were fits for their current systems, both had plenty of good football years left, and both are entering a contract year.

For me, it's a bittersweet goodbye to Sims.  Check out my post from roughly this time last year, featuring a battered alt-color Ernie Sims jersey and dangerous levels of optimism:

Ernie Sims is primed to be an incredible force in 2009.

Coming out of Florida State, I really thought that Sims would be what I later thought Aaron Curry could be: the explosive, badass linebacker who turns around the defense and the team.  That the Lions would draft a chiseled little wrecking ball of an OLB, more noteworthy for his performance on tape than his freakish size or speed?  Surely, I figured, it must be a harbinger of glory!

Prior to last season, I thought the Lions’ new scheme, and all of its OLB blitzing, would allow Sims to shut his brain off and unleash his inner Kraken.  Unfortunately, the Lions’ defensive line wasn’t disruptive enough to allow Sims to safely ignore his lanes—and double-unfortunately, Sims shut his brain off anyway.

He still has all the talent to be a surpassing WLB if used properly.  Philly’s hyperaggressive 4-3 is exactly the right kind of system, and it’s a lot closer to being fully realized than the Lions’ own implementation of a similar system.  I wish Sims all the best, of course; I’m “glad” I never sank the cash into that jersey, but I’m sad I never repped him while he was here.  For a little while, he was the only player really worth cheering for.

Tony Scheffler, for his part, is like Casey FitzSimmons, only up an order of magnitude.  Midwestern football state?  Instead of Montana, Michigan.  Instead of Caroll College, Western Michigan.  Instead of an undrafted free agent, a 2nd-round pick.  Instead of a 23-catch, 160-yard, 2-TD rookie season, an 18-catch, 286-yard, 4-TD rookie season.  Instead of a six more years that barely matched his rookie totals combined, three more years where he’s averaged double the catches and yards over that initial effort.

Scheffler really doesn't have much place in Denver's offense, and he had little-to-no chemistry with efficient-but-weak-armed Kyle Orton.  Now, he’ll again play with the kind of rocket-armed quarterback who threw him 107 passes, for 1,480 yards & 12 TDs, in his first three NFL seasons.

Many are pointing to this trade as proof that Brandon Pettigrew’s recovery is going poorly, but I see them as completely different players.  Pettigrew is a third tackle with cotton hands; a powerful inline blocker who’s quick enough to get open and make a crucial third-down catch.  However, he’s not a field-stretcher, a walking mismatch like Gates or Clark.  He’s not going to blow past an OLB  on a skinny post, catch it in stride, smoke both safeties and take it to the house; that’s just not his skill set.

With Fitz gone, the Lions had four blocking TEs, with a spectrum of hands from “great” to “nonexistent”.  Scheffler gives them that dangerous 2-TE combination that Linehan loves: he can again use a 2-WR, 2-TE, I-formation set as a base for five-option pass plays.  It’s all about establishing the power running game, and then killing them through the air . . . and, Pettigrew or no, Tony Scheffler gives them that ability.

The best part of all of it, though, is what the Michigan native, Scheffler, told the Denver Post when they called him:

“Restore the Roar!”

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,denver broncos,tony scheffler,ernie sims,philadelphia eagles

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