The Watchtower: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

The last time the Vikings played at Ford Field, they were the home team. Now, they couldn’t be less welcome guests. After the Week 3 contest that teetered on the brink of disaster, Jared Allen & Co. are coming to Detroit, dead set on finishing what they started. The Lions and Vikings are headed in opposite directions: the Lions started 5-0 but are 2-5 since; the Vikings are 2-10 but have found their quarterback in rookie Christian Ponder, and might be getting Lion tamer Adrian Peterson back.

As before, this game is a must-win for the Lions. The Lions are favored by as much as 11.5 points as of this writing; surely the heaviest they’ll be favored by for the remainder of the year. Moreover, as a division opponent (and common opponent with the Falcons and Saints), the Lions’ record against the Vikings strongly affects the Lions playoff tiebreakers.

Bill Musgrave vs. Gunther Cunningham

Mus

Gun

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

MIN

DET

22nd

20.5

6.28

4.92

21st

23.1

6.06

4.81

23

12.1%

5.86

-6.7%

5.74

16.7%

In the previous Watchtower, I found that Bill Musgrave had never faced off against Gunther Cunningham as a signal caller—and though he boasts strong Bill Walsh offense credentials, he has a diverse resumé and does not run a Childress-style WCO in Minnesota.

In the first meeting, the Vikings managed to score 23 points. That’s almost a field goal above their season average—fitting, because the Lions’ defense is currently ranked 21st, just below the middle. The Vikings are averaging a decent 6.28 YpA through the air, and a monster 4.92 YpC on the ground.

Of course, the Lions aren't facing the Vikings they faced last time. Donovan McNabb started at quarterback in that game, and he's since been supplanted by first-round rookie Christian Ponder. To the surprise of many observers, though, Ponder hasn’t been able to shake a supposedly-minor hip injury; he did not practice on Thursday. If he can’t play on Sunday, last year’s sixth-round pick Joe Webb will get the start.

The Vikings got some very good news when Adrian Peterson had limited participation in Thursday’s practice and was able to cut without pain. If Joe Webb is under center and All Day isn’t lining up behind him, the Vikings are going to get their doors blown off.

There's no evidence of a systemic advantage or disadvantage here, but if Ponder, Peterson, or both are not 100% the Vikings will be in trouble. If Ponder and Peterson can go, I’d still expect the Vikings to fall just short of expectations, scoring 17-20 points, passing for 6.00-6.50 YpA and rushing for 5.00-5.25 YpA. If either Ponder or Peterson cannot start, those figures fall to 13-17 points, 5.50-6.00 YpA, and 4.50-4.75 YpC. With little historical info, I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Well, I pretty much laid them out for you up there: if Ponder and AD go at 100%, the Vikings should be good for roughly their season average. If either cannot start, or if one or both are significantly limited, the Vikes are going to be very hard-pressed to move the ball. Banged-up secondary or no, the Lions defense should be going for the juglar from the opening snap. An early turnover or barrage of sacks could get the Lions up quickly—and put it in cruise control. I don’t see a scenario where the Vikings score more than three touchdowns.

Scott Linehan vs. Leslie Frazier

Lin	Fra	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	TBB	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	1st	12.2	4.88	3.79	24	1.6%	7.78	17.9%	7.52	41.9%
MIN	IND	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	19th	21.9	7.15	4.43	28	9.7%	8.89	24.2%	5.75	22.1%
MIA	TBB	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	8th	17.1	6.15	3.46	13	-44.7%	6.21	5.5%	3.56	-3.6%
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	13	-26.1%	5.07	-3.8%	3.79	-3.3%
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	10	-64%	4.39	-16.7%	4.23	0.2%
DET	MIN	14th	22.8	5.99	3.99	16th	21.9	6.36	3.92	10	-66.2%	5.51	-8.1%	3.32	-16.8%
DET	MIN	14th	22.8	5.99	3.99	16th	21.9	6.36	3.92	20	-14%	6.62	10.5%	3.96	-0.8%
DET	MIN	4th	27.8	6.89	4.44	31st	27.5	7.53	3.76	26	-3.6%	8.22	19.3%	0.95	-78.7%
DET	MIN	4th	27.8	6.89	4.44	31st	27.5	7.53	3.76

From the last Watchtower:

In Watchtowers past, I’ve found there is a mild systemic advantage for Scott Linehan offenses against Leslie Frazier defenses. However, in each of the last two games, critical red zone turnovers have short-circuited that advantage, and the Lions’ offense has underperformed expectations. Today, Matthew Stafford will leading the offense, instead of Shaun Hill—and I’ll presume the Lions’ systemic advantages remain intact.

What happened was not quite what I expected. The Watchtower review explains:

The story of the game was the one I worried about: the Vikings playing their brains out, the crowd noise and the pass rush handing the Vikings the momentum, and the Lions finding themselves having to scrap their way out of a hole, as opposed to putting it in the cooler.

This is why I was so grumpy about the probably-enhanced crowd noise: it made an enormous difference in the way the game played out. The lesson to take away from this game, and this Watchtower, is that the Lions are clearly much better than the Vikings. The Lions took Minnesota’s best shot—and staggered—but leaned on the ropes long enough for their talent and skill to win the day.

So what we have here is the 4th-highest-scoring offense that squared off against what has been the 31st-best (2nd-worst) scoring defense and didn’t, quite, meet its season scoring average. This continues a trend we’ve seen with Frazier and Linehan that’s kicked in just since Linehan took over the Lions offense: turnovers (and dirty cheating fake Viking crowd noise) are severely depressing the Lions’ scoring, even as passing effectiveness is boosted.

Obviously, the crowd noise won’t be slowing the Lions down on Sunday, but this is too strong of a trend to ignore. I’m going to say Leslie Frazier defenses disproportionately disrupt Scott Linehan offenses with sacks and turnovers, even while allowing greater per-attempt passing effectiveness. Since the Lions have been especially turnovery lately, I project the Lions to significantly underperform expectations. However, expectations would be that the Lions, facing the second-worst defense in the league, would exceed their scoring averages by 10-14 points. So, the Lions should score 33-35 points, pass for 8.00-8.50 YpA, and rush for 4.00-4.25 YpC.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Or, the Lions crowd could give it to the Vikings almost as good as the Metrodome sound reinforcement system gave it to the Lions, and for the fourth time this year the Lions get back on track after a shaky game by hanging forty points on somebody.

Conclusion

I’m hoping this game mirrors the Broncos game: where the Lions work out a few weeks of frustrations by completely dominating an inferior opponent. The crowd will be on their side. The injuries to the Vikings’ stud running back, only serviceable quarterback, and half their defense should help swing momentum their way too.

But things haven’t gone too rosy for my Watchtower projections as of late, because the Lions keep drawing ridiculous penalties, shooting themselves in the foot, getting field goals blocked and other such nonsense. They’re moving the ball just like they have been all season, but it hasn’t translated into points. That this seems to be the Vikings’ particular mojo vs. the Lions scares me, too. So, I project that the most likely outcome of the game is a 35-20 Lions win. This presumes that Ponder and All Day make their starts and are significant fractions of healthy. If not, well . . . it’s time for that #BEATEMDOWN.

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The Watchtower: Lions at Vikings

My apologies for the fallen Watchtower this week. Between wedding season, and the unexpected opportunity to interview Justin Durant, I ran out of time. Also, I forgot I’d have to re-reasearch the Vikes’ offensive coordinator (the bulk of the time crunch) until it was kind of too late. I’ll make it up to you today with a Bleacher Report liveblog of the game itself, and a Fireside Chat containing the audio of the Durant interview.

I started this blog the day the Lions fired Rod Marinelli. Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier was among the few serious candidates for the vacancy, and I profiled Frazier’s resumé in my first title post series, “To Whom It May Concern.” As it turns out, Frazier had a “difference of opinion” with the Lions’ brass, specifically as regards how quickly the Lions could be turned around:

“[W]e had different perceptions of where to go and the length of time to get there,” Frazier said.  “We were really far apart in that. . . .  I will just say we had a different philosophy and vision for two years from now or a year from now.”

Two years later, here we are: Jim Schwartz’s Lions are taking on Leslie Frazier’s Vikings—and though the contest will be in Minnesota, the Lions are four-point favorites. One wonders what Frazier thinks now—of the length of time it would take to turn the Lions into contenders.

Bill Musgrave vs. Gunther Cunningham

Bill Musgrave seems like a pure Bill Walsh WCO disciple. As a player, he backed up Joe Montana and Steve Young under George Seifert. When Musgrave retired, he immediately went into coaching, joining Joe Bugel’s staff in Oakland. Seifert eventually took over the Carolina Panthers, and brought in Musgrave to coach the quarterbacks. According to Wikipedia, Seifert increasingly leaned on Musgrave for playcalling help, even over OC Gil Haskell. The following offseason, Haskell left and Musgrave was promoted to coordinator.

After four games as OC, though, it’s rumored Seifert dressed down Musgrave in front of the team for his poor playcalling. Musgrave resigned. That year, those Panthers played Gunther Cunningham’s Chiefs, but Musgrave was long since out.

After running Al Groh’s offense at Virginia (and developing Matt Schaub) for a year, Musgrave was hired as Jacksonville’s OC. After two years where the offense finished 25th and 29th in scoring, Musgrave was let go.

Musgrave landed in Washington, serving as quarterbacks coach for one year, then spent five years in Atlanta in the same position—though by the end, he’d been promoted to Assistant Head Coach.

The long and short of it is, Musgrave was a pure Bill Walsh disciple with impressive pedigree, but has run a diverse set of offenses since then. Musgrave has ditched Brad Childress’s complicated Andy Reid-style WCO verbiage, and switched to the Ron Erhardt system, which was used by Ken Whisenhunt in both Pittsburgh and Arizona.

Everywhere I’ve looked, I’ve found that Musgrave’s offense in Minnesota is going to be simpler, more flexible, and better suited to maximize the talents of Adrian Peterson—while making it easier on the Vikings’ young quarterbacks. Ironically, it’s this switch in verbiage and approach might have introduced a learning curve for Donovan McNabb, who was supposed to be a plug-and-play fit in Minnesota.

Long story short, I can't find any game where Bill Musgrave faced off against a Schwartzingham defense as a playcaller, at least not while running anything like this offense.

With no schematic advantages either way, we must project the Vikings’ offense to meet expectations. Though I don’t typically use data from the current season until after the third game, at this point I’m left with no choice. The Vikings are currently scoring 18.5 points per game, after averaging 17.6 points per game in 2010. The Lions are the second-best scoring defense in the league, allowing just 11.5 points per game. I don’t expect the Lions to finish the season allowing so few points per game, but I do expect the Vikings to score fewer than their season average today.

Therefore, I project the Vikings to score between 10 and 13 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Well golly. I'd need some real data to have some factors to mitigate or aggravate, eh? One thing I'd keep an eye on: the Vikings have started hot in each of their first two games, only to fall apart. They’re pretty much playing for their season, at home, in a place where the Lions almost never win. If they jump out to an early lead, momentum may carry them beyond expectations. If not . . . well, not.

Scott Linehan vs. Leslie Frazier

Lin	Fraz	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Fum	Sack
MIN	TBB	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	1st	12.2	4.88	3.79	24	7.78	2	7.52	3-11	2-1
MIN	IND	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	19th	21.9	7.15	4.43	28	8.89	0	5.75	2-1	2-15
MIA	TBB	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	8th	17.1	6.15	3.46	13	6.21	0	3.56	3-2	4-24
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	13	5.07	2	3.79	2-1	2-16
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	10	4.39	0	4.23	2-1	3-20
DET	MIN	14th	22.8	5.99	3.99	16th	21.9	6.36	3.92	10	5.51	2	3.32	1-1	1-15
DET	MIN	14th	22.8	5.99	3.99	16th	21.9	6.36	3.92	20	6.62	1	3.96	1-1	1-8

In Watchtowers past, I’ve found there is a mild systemic advantage for Scott Linehan offenses against Leslie Frazier defenses. However, in each of the last two games, critical red zone turnovers have short-circuited that advantage, and the Lions’ offense has  underperformed expectations. Today, Matthew Stafford will leading the offense, instead of Shaun Hill—and I’ll presume the Lions’ systemic advantages remain intact.

The Lions are scoring 37.5 points per game, but I don’t expect that to last all season. I’ll project the Lions to outperform what I think will be their season averages on the year, scoring 34-37 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Conclusion

This has been an awfully frustrating season for Watchtowers so far, and I appreciate your patience. Today, I project a 34-13 Lions victory. My gut feeling on the relative strengths of these two teams agrees with that projection. However, I feel like this Vikings team is backed against the wall at 0-2, and—though they’re saying all the right things—I have to believe the Lions are believing their own press at this point, too. I worry about the Vikes getting the jump on the Lions and popping the hype balloon.

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The Watchtower: Lions vs. Vikings

okay seriously this guy gets me every time

Well, this is it: the final Watchtower of 2010.  If the Lions win this game, they’ll have emphatically announced their ascension from the basement of the NFL, by ascending out of the basement of their division.  If they can turn away the Vikings at the gate, the Lions will finish third—as in, not last—in the NFC North.

The players don’t particularly care—at least according to Ndamukong Suh, who per ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert said:

"I don't think it means that much.  The only thing that would really mean something is obviously winning the division and being able to move on to the playoffs. Winning and being third in the division, it seems you're the second loser in the whole thing. That's the way I pretty much see it right now."

I’m glad Suh has that attitude—but for me, this game means everything.  The Lions have been so terribly, horribly, God-awful bad for so long.  In the past decade, there have been only two seasons where the Lions won six or more games: in 2007, when they won seven, and in 2004, when they won six.  These two seasons—these two not-quite-as-losing seasons—were the only times in the past ten years the Lions haven’t been amidst the bitter dregs at the bottom of the NFL cup.  During those seasons, we looked forward to games.  During those seasons, we thought the Lions had a chance to win going into every single contest. During those seasons, we thought the Lions were coming into their own, were finally emerging from the muck and the mire.

With a win on Sunday, this season will stand alongside those two.  The Lions have won at home, and won on the road.  They’ve beaten winning teams; beaten likely playoff teams, even.  They’ve won in the face of adversity, they’ve come from behind—and they’ve played with a lead and held onto it.  With a win on Sunday, they’ll have won two games in division, four games in a row, finished above the Vikings in the standings, and—as Neil from Armchair Linebacker wrote in an absolutely glorious post, finally buried Brett Favre, once and for all.

So, will the Lions win on Sunday?  We go to the data.

Darrell Bevell vs. Gunther Cunningham

Chilly	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Fum	Sack
PHI	TEN	4th	25.9	6.18	4.54	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	24	5.89	2	3.66	1-1	6-31
PHI	KCC	18th	19.4	5.93	3.92	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	37	7.69	1	5.33	3-1	1-1
MIN	DET	2nd	29.4	7.18	4.15	32nd	30.9	7.78	4.42	27	6.04	0	4.5	2-1	2-1
MIN	DET	2nd	29.4	7.18	4.15	32nd	30.9	7.78	4.42	27	11.10	0	4.90	2-2	1-4
MIN	DET	28th	17.9	6.26	4.48	19th	23.7	6.92	4.59	24	5.91	2	6.1	1-1	2-16
MIN	DET	28th	17.9	6.26	4.48	19th	23.7	6.92	4.59

To begin with, this isn’t really Darrell Bevell’s data; it’s Brad Childress’s.  Bevell has been Childress’ top lieutenant for four seasons, and before then spent five years under Mike Sherman in Green Bay.  Bevell is a dyed-in-the-wool Walsh offense guy, and it’s that exact pedigree—and experience with Brett Favre in Green Bay—that made Minnesota such an attractive destination prior to Favre.  There have been no real schematic changes to Minnesota’s offense since Childress left, so I’ll continue to use Minnesota’s data.

Last season, the Lions held the Vikings to 27 offensive points in both games—below their scoring average of 29.4 ppg.  Now, the Vikings were the second-best scoring offense in the NFL last year, and the Lions were the worst scoring defense in the NFL.  That points to a powerful systemic advantage for Gunther’s D, to say the least.  It also jibes with a result from 2002, when Schwartz and Cunningham put together a gameplan that allowed their 11th-ranked Titans D to hold the 4th-ranked Eagles just below their season average.  The other meeting between Childress and Gunther didn’t go very well at all—but if the advantage only works when Schwartz and Cunningham are working together, well, that’s just fine for our purposes.

I took that advantage into account in 2010’s first Vikings Watchtower, lo these many weeks back:

Given a slight advantage in execution, and a proven systemic advantage, I expect the Vikings to perform slightly below expectations. With little data about the Vikings’ 2010 offensive norms, I project them to score 17-20 points. I project them to throw for 6.5-7.0 YpA, and rush for 4.5-4.75 YpA. I have medium confidence in this projection.

The Vikings, of course, scored 24 points, which didn’t sound like a horrible miss when I reviewed the Watchtower a couple of days later:

there are two major components to the Watchtower breakdown: first, an analysis of past performance when one coach meets another coach. Attempting to control for the varying skill of the players, I try to find out if one coach has a schematic and/or playcalling advantage over the other—if one “has their number.” I try to identify the mechanism too—say, a certain offense is typically depressed when facing a certain defense, because that defense tends to sack the quarterback more often than that offense usually allows.

The systematic advantage of Gunther Cunningham's defense over Brad Childress' offense is one of the most consistent that I've found. Linehan's performances against Frazier (and Dungy) have been consistent, too. As a result, my two Vikings predictions were quite nearly spot-on. I was extremely confident in the respective effects I'd identified . . . but what was I saying about two major components? Oh, yes.

The second part is identifying what the “expectations” are. This is easy at the end of the season, when the teams have played ten or eleven games and their averages are fairly well-established—but at this point in the season, it’s mostly guesswork . . .

. . . Unfortunately, the Stefan Logan fumble that handed the Vikings the ball within striking distance skewed these results. While turnovers are a part of offense/defense interaction, this analysis doesn't factor in special teams at all--and in this case, the Vikings got a free drive AND incredible field position out of a very rare special teams mistake. In light of that, a projection of 17-20 points is not far off the mark.

Indeed-and now, at the end of the season, we know the 28th-ranked Vikings offense is mustering just 18 points a game on the average, and the slightly-below-average Lions defense should have allowed about that much.  24 points minus special teams gift-wrapped touchdown does equal 17 . . . but the Lions are supposed to have a systemic advantage, so what gives?  Well, Adrian Peterson gives.  Peterson ripped off an 80-yard TD run, part of a 23-carry, 160-yard day.  This was enough to push the Vikings past where I projected, even with a two-interception day from Favre.

I'm not willing to completely discount the idea of a systemic advantage; the Lions were playing on the road, after all.  However, I’m going to temper my expectations.  Given a mild systemic advantage for Gunther Cunningham against Minnesota’s conservative flavor of the Bill Walsh offense, I project the Vikings to meet their season average, scoring 17-20 points, passing for 5.5-6.0 YpA, and rushing for 4.5-4.75 YpC.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Brad Childress has been fired, and Leslie Frazier, a candidate for the Lions coaching job, has taken over the head coaching gig.  Brett Favre is out, and Joe “He Worked Out At Wide Receiver At The Combine” Webb will start.  The Lions defense is playing much, much better over the past few weeks than it did during the first few weeks—and are starting an almost entirely different defensive secondary.  Basically, this is all completely up for grabs.  But I’ll stand pat with the data anyway; it has a funny way of being right.

Scott Linehan vs. Leslie Frazier

Lin	Fraz	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Fum	Sack
MIN	TBB	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	1st	12.2	4.88	3.79	24	7.78	2	7.52	3-11	2-1
MIN	IND	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	19th	21.9	7.15	4.43	28	8.89	0	5.75	2-1	2-15
MIA	TBB	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	8th	17.1	6.15	3.46	13	6.21	0	3.56	3-2	4-24
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	13	5.07	2	3.79	2-1	2-16
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	10	4.39	0	4.23	2-1	3-20
DET	MIN	14th	22.8	5.99	3.99	16th	21.9	6.36	3.92	10	5.51	2	3.32	1-1	1-15
DET	MIN	14th	22.8	5.99	3.99	16th	21.9	6.36	3.92

Here’s what I projected for the Lions’ offense the first time around:

Given an equal (or slightly lesser) level of talent and execution, and a mild systemic advantage, the Lions should roughly meet their season averages, scoring 20-24 points. They should pass for 6.0-6.5 YpA, and rush for 3.5-3.75 YpC. I have medium confidence in this projection.

. . . and yeah.  Ten points not so much.  However, as I said in the review:

Of course, the Lions scored only ten points, so it looks like this is a huge failure. But Shaun Hill threw two end-zone interceptions from within the Vikings' ten-yard-line; if you simply switch those to touchdowns, that's 24 points on the nose. Then again, Shaun Hill turning it over against a strong Vikings D is something to be expected. It's probably why my offensive "Mitigating/Augmenting Factors" section was wholly mitigating, and ended like this:

The Vikings have held the vaunted Saints offense to just 14 points, and the much-less-vaunted-but-nothing-to-sneeze-at Dolphins offense to only 7. Even with a systemic advantage tilting the field towards the Lions, this is an extremely stout defense. It makes me very, very nervous.

For the only time this season, the Lions will face a divisional opponent at home, while starting the same quarterback they started against them earlier in the season.  However, Shaun Hill’s settled into the groove and cut way down on turnovers, having started the season with 7 INTs to 5 TDs in the first four weeks of the season, but 10 TDs to 4 INTs thereafter.  With the Lions’ 14th-ranked offense averaging 22.8 points a game, and the Vikings’ median defense allowing 21.9 points a game, the Lions should hit this one right on the nose.

I'd thought I'd identified a mild systemic advantage for Linehan offenses, and I suppose if Hill had thrown red zone TDs instead of red zone INTs in Week 3, I'd have been correct.  However he didn’t, so I wasn’t.  For the purposes of this week, I’ll take the advantages off the table.

The Lions’ offense should meet their season averages against the Vikings’ median-ranked defense, scoring 21-23 points, passing for 6.0-6.5 YpA, and rushing for 3.75-4.00 YpC.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

As on the defensive side, there are quite a few of these.  It’ll be played in front of a sold-out (and likely raucous) Ford Field crowd, instead of at the Metrodome.  Shaun Hill could play as he was in midseason, or he could play as he did against the Vikings the first time.  Jahvid Best could put up his best game of the season—or not.  Still, as with the offense, I’ll stick with the data.

Conclusion

I'll be honest: my gut is calling this one a Lions romp, something like 35-10.  However, the data’s telling me to be far more cautious, so I will be—to a point.  According to my projections, the most likely outcome of the game is a 23-17 Lions victory.  And, if I’m right, the worst decade in Lions history—arguably, in NFL history—will truly be a thing of the past.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,minnesota vikings,jim schwartz,gunther cunningham,scott linehan,leslie frazier,darrell bevell

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The Watchtower: Lions at Vikings

 

Last week’s game against the Eagles had a hint of desperation: both teams were coming off the heels of a painful loss, and both teams lost their starting quarterbacks in the process.  But if that game had a hint of desperation about it, this game is absolutely dripping with desperation.  The Lions are 0-2, and fans would give almost anything to get on the board and know 0-16 won’t happen again.  The Vikings dragged Brett Favre back from Mississippi, kicking and screaming, to win a Super Bowl—and yet, they also find themselves at 0-2. 

Brad Childress vs. Gunther Cunningham

Chilly	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Fum	Sack
PHI	TEN	4	25.9	6.18	4.54	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	24	5.89	2	3.66	1-1	6-31
PHI	KCC	18	19.4	5.93	3.92	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	37	7.69	1	5.33	3-1	1-1
MIN	DET	2nd	29.4	7.18	4.15	32nd	30.9	7.78	4.42	27	6.04	0	4.5	2-1	2-1
MIN	DET	2nd	29.4	7.18	4.15	32nd	30.9	7.78	4.42	27	11.10	0	4.90	2-2	1-4

All the in-division foes grant me the luxury of two meetings a year.  The 2009 Vikings were especially Watchtowerable opponents; serving as a perfect case study for why I do this.  In the first Vikings Watchtower analysis, I concluded:

We see the same pattern in all three games; therefore I feel safe concluding the following: given equal or lesser talent and execution, Gunther Cunningham’s hyperaggressive 4-3 disproportionately disrupts Brad Childress’s conservative Walsh-style offense, especially in the running game. However, a very effective deep passing game can stretch the defense, reduce QB pressure, and produce points.

In the second Vikings Watchtower, I fairly well crowed about the how the offensive output of the Vikings was indeed much lower than expected, and boldly predicted the pattern would repeat itself in the second game as well:

Rather than attempt to decide which dimension of the Vikings' offense holds the iocaine, let's go right back to the data. Despite the second-best offense in the NFL meeting the second-worst defense, that offense underperformed its season averages. I originally concluded that the Gunther Cunningham 4-3 disproportionately disrupts Childress’ conservative flavor, and that conclusion was indisputably correct.

Now, I didn’t make an actual prediction for the game beyond “a medium-to-low scoring slugfest”; I was just starting this feature, and hadn’t refined it to the level I have now. Therefore, I’ll simply refine my original prediction: Given a huge talent and execution advantage, but a definite systemic disadvantage, I expect the Vikings will meet or slightly underperform their season averages: scoring 27-30 points, passing for 6.75-7.0 yards per attempt, and rushing for 3.75-4.0 yards per carry. I have very high confidence in this prediction.

I stuck my neck pretty far out there with that “very high confidence” bit, especially as it’s quite rare for two teams to play each other twice in one season and have duplicate results.  Nevertheless, that’s exactly what happened; the Vikings were again held to 27 points.  Twice the second-ranked, scoring-29.4-points-per-game Vikings offense faced the dead-last-ranked, allowing-30.9-points-per-game defense, and twice they scored only 27 points.  Clearly, whether it’s through scheme or playcalling, the Lions’ defense “has the Vikings’ number.”

Astoundingly, the Vikings have the second-lowest-scoring offense in the NFL, averaging just 9.5 points through the first two games.  Granted, those two defenses are the Saints and the Dolphins, currently 10th and 1st in the NFL in scoring defense, but still—the Vikings aren’t playing like they did in 2009.  With a mere 6.3 YpA, the passing offense that was so successful last season looks completely pedestrian in 2010.

I’m not certain I buy it.  It’s true that Favre is missing his favorite target from last season, Sydney Rice—and it’s true that Favre’s offensive line is in the process of crossing the line between “experienced” to “old”.  Still, I don’t think the Silver Fox is completely out of magic.  An awakening is due, and a home game against the Lions seems like the perfect wake-up call.

Still, Rice isn’t coming back this week, and new WR addition Hank Baskett is unlikely to make an impact in his first game in purple.  If we blame the Vikings’ precipitous drop in effectiveness on Rice, and a rusty Ironman, the Lions should still be facing these Vikings as they are.  The Vikes are averaging ten points a game, having faced two top ten defenses.  We can posit that against the Lions’ twenty-seventh ranked scoring defense (27.0 ppg), they should score something more like 20-23 points.

Given a slight advantage in execution, and a proven systemic advantage, I expect the Vikings to perform slightly below expectations.  With little data about the Vikings’ 2010 offensive norms, I project them to score 17-20 points.  I project them to throw for 6.5-7.0 YpA, and rush for 4.5-4.75 YpA.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences

Well, Brett Favre is Brett Favre, and when Brett Favre Brett Favres ya, you just never know what’s coming and then BOOM!  The Lions, as a franchise, have never beaten Brett Favre on his own turf, and there’s a reason for that: Favre is the greatest quarterback of all time, and the Lions have been perennially terrible on the road, and against the pass.  They may be better at both this season, but enough to finally take down #4?  That’s still a big ask, as humbled as the great one may currently be.

Scott Linehan vs. Leslie Frazier

Lin	Fraz	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Fum	Sack
MIN	TBB	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	1st	12.2	4.88	3.79	24	7.78	2	7.52	3-11	2-1
MIN	IND	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	19th	21.9	7.15	4.43	28	8.89	0	5.75	2-1	2-15
MIA	TBB	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	8th	17.1	6.15	3.46	13	6.21	0	3.56	3-2	4-24
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	13	5.07	2	3.79	2-1	2-16
DET	MIN	27th	16.4	5.27	3.92	10th	19.5	6.89	4.14	10	4.39	0	4.23	2-1	3-20

In the first Vikings Watchtower, I concluded:

given greater or equal talent, Scott Linehan’s balanced offense significantly outperforms its averages when facing a Dungy-style Tampa 2, especially against the run. Given lesser talent, Linehan’s offense meets or mildly outperforms expectations against a T2. However, a disproportionate amount of sacks and turnovers seem to be created by a Tampa 2 when facing a Linehan offense.

Though I wasn't projecting specific point totals at that point in my Watchtowering, I felt as though the 13-point, 2-sack, 2-INT performance by the Lions' offense bore out my conclusion.  From the second Watchtower:

I originally concluded that given lesser talent, Scott Linehan’s balanced offense meets or slightly exceeds expectations against a Dungy-style defense, even while allowing more sacks and/or turnovers. This conclusion was confirmed by the results of Week 2.

Again, I’ll refine my original prediction: with lesser talent, and therefore a small-to-zero systemic advantage, the Lions will slightly underperform, or approach, their season averages: 14-17 points scored, 5.0-5.25 YpA, and 3.75-4.0 YpC. I have very high confidence in this prediction.

The Lions actually fell slightly short of this projection, mustering only ten points.  Stafford didn’t throw an interception—but this was accomplished by almost never taking a risk.  The miniscule 4.39 YpA (51 attempts for only 224 yards!) shows the extensive degree to which the Lions were ankle-biting.  If they have any hope of beating Brett Favre and the Vikings this time around, they will not be able to do it by throwing it no farther than they could run it.

So far this year, the Lions are scoring at a well-above-average clip, 23.0 PpG.  This is good for 10th-best in the NFL (though, of course, with only two games played, it’s hard to assign that fact much weight).  The Vikings’ offense has slipped, but the defense is as stout as ever—through two games, they’ve allowed only 21 offensive points to the Saints and Dolphins combined.  It’s worth noting that this same Saints offense averaged 31.9 points last season!

It’s safe to assume the Vikings’ defense will remain a top ten unit.  Given their performances with Shaun Hill in, it’s tempting to say that the Lions’ offense will remain a top ten unit as well.  Given the propensity for the Lions to outperform averages, especially on the ground, against Minnesota, I think we need to look at their current scoring average, 23.0 points, and make it the target.  Given an equal (or slightly lesser) level of talent and execution, and a mild systemic advantage, the Lions should roughly meet their season averages, scoring 20-24 points.  They should pass for 6.0-6.5 YpA, and rush for 3.5-3.75 YpC.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences

There are a slew of these.  The Vikings’ defensive averages, as well as the Lions’ offensive averages, are far from solid—they’re both based on just two games.  The Lions have played against two (presumably) stout defenses in the Bears and Eagles; yet their average is certainly inflated by the two TDs scored against the Eagles’ prevent defense.  Then again, they had a TD on the Bears erroneously taken off the board, so that may be a wash.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have held the vaunted Saints offense to just 14 points, and the much-less-vaunted-but-nothing-to-sneeze-at Dolphins offense to only 7.  Even with a systemic advantage tilting the field towards the Lions, this is an extremely stout defense.  It makes me very, very nervous.

Conclusion

All the stars are aligning for the Lions: the Vikings offense is in disarray, the numbers seem to point their way, and they've played well enough to win (without winning) for two games.  It seems like the dam has to burst, like the time has finally come.  Paula Pasche of the Oakland Press has already gone out on a limb and predicted victory; the numbers compel me to do the same.  The Brett Favre loss streak, the road loss streak, the axemen ready to chop that limb to the ground?  Well, I’ll just have to brave them with her.  The most likely outcome of the game is a close Lions win, with above-average rushing performances from both sides, and a 21-17 final score.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,minnesota vikings,brett favre,adrian peterson,jahvid best

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the watchtower: lions at vikings

Before we delve into a very, very special Watchtower—the first to feature an opponent that has already been Watchtower’d—let’s take a look at last week’s installment:

• Regardless of talent, Gunther Cunningham defenses disproportionately depress the scoring of Greg Knapp offenses, despite allowing typical rushing and passing per-play effectiveness.
• Given a definite talent advantage and a mild systemic points-denial disadvantage, I expect the Seahawks to mildly overperform their season averages: 20-23 points, with 6.00-6.25 YpA, and 3.75-4.00 YpC. I have medium-high confidence in this prediction.
• It seems as though Jim L. Mora’s conservative 4-3 disproportionately depresses the per-play effectiveness of Linehan’s balanced offense—unless scoring can come from big plays that get behind the defense.
• If "Dr. Jekyll" shows up--the Lions offense that features Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Kevin Smith all healthy and effective--the Lions should be able to push it deep and meet or slightly outperform their expectations: 17-20 points, 6.25-6.5 YpA, and 3.75-4.YpC. I have medium-low confidence in this prediction.

. . . and the results, in gorgeous table format:

Off.	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
DETp	19.3	5.84	3.51	31st	29.3	7.53	4.82	17-20	6.25-.5	-	3.75-4	-
DETa	19.3	5.84	3.51	31st	29.3	7.53	4.82	20	4.83	5	5.43	2-17
SEAp	16.1	5.42	3.76	14th	21.0	6.49	4.25	20-23	6-6.25	-	3.75-4	-
SEAa	16.1	5.42	3.76	14th	21.0	6.49	4.25	25	6.62	1	3.06	1-2

First, of course, the points: I projected 17-20 for the Lions; they scored 20. I projected 20-23 for the Seahawks; their offense scored 25.  I got into a protracted argument with Seahawks fans about whether or not it is ethically legitimate to subtract a defensive TD from “actual points scored” while evaluating a projection of offensive points; I won.

Oddly, as close as the projection was on points scored, it was wildly off-base on run/pass effectiveness--in both directions, for both teams.  I projected 6.25-to-6.50 yards per pass attempt for the Lions; they produced a miserable-even-for-them 4.83.  Of course, that’s partially explicable by the five attempts that went for zero yards . . . on the ground, I projected a mildly better-than-average day, 3.75-to-4.00 YpC.  Instead, the Lions’ ground game was breathtakingly effective, gashing Seattle for 5.43 YpC.

For Seattle’s part, I projected 6.00-6.25 YpA, and instead they averaged almost a half-yard more than that: 6.62 YpA.  On the ground, I projected they’d just about match their average, 3.75-to-4.00 YpC—and instead, with run-stuffer Grady Jackson a healthy scratch, the Lions held the ‘Hawks to just 3.06 yards per carry.

Interestingly, this run/pass effectiveness reversal seems to happen a lot.  Might it be because defenses load up to stop where teams are strong, and then the offense outperforms expectations the other way?  Figuring out if this is a statistically quantifiable phenomenon might make for an interesting offseason project.  Either way, this run/pass Whack-a-Mole effect produced the projected final results: a regrettably foreseeable, no-less-heartbreaking loss.

Brad Childress vs. Gunther Cunningham

Chilly	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
PHI	TEN	4	25.9	6.18	4.54	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	24	5.89	2	3.64	1-1
PHI	KCC	18	19.4	5.93	3.92	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	37	7.68	1	1.64	3-1
MIN	DET	2nd	30.5	7.18	4.15	31st	29.6	7.36	4.65	27	6.04	0	4.48	2-1

In the Watchtower for the first Vikings game, I identified a systemic advantage for the Lions' blitzing 4-3 defense against Brad Childress' conservative flavor of the Bill Walsh offense.  Sure enough, the Lions stymied the Vikings in the first half, shutting them out completely.

I expected the Vikings to overcome this disadvantage by airing it out over the Lions' suspect secondary--but instead, they nibbled underneath. Brett Favre was sparklingly efficient while dinking and dunking, completing 23 of 27 pass attempts.  Adrian Peterson, while very effective on a per-carry basis (6.13 YpC), was effectively contained, gaining only 92 yards on 14 carries; his sole TD accounted for 27 of those.

Since that game, the Vikings have proven that they’re a force to be reckoned with: they’re the second-best scoring offense in football, averaging 30.5 points per game.  They’re excelling in both dimensions of offense, netting 7.18 YpA and 4.15 YpC.  Meanwhile, the Lions’ defense has been anything but forceful: they’re the second-worst scoring defense in football, allowing 29.6 points per game.  They’re failing in both dimensions of defense, allowing 7.36 YpA and 4.65 YpC. 

Of course, it's tempting to turn around and predict a 40-point explosion for the Vikings--but, that didn’t happen the first time.  In fact, the Lions held the Vikings to 3.5 points beneath their season average, partially thanks to that aggressive passing D.  The Vikings fell more than a yard short of their season per-attempt average, and only outgained their season per-carry average by a third of a yard.

So, what to do? The strongest possible data point of all, a prior in-season meeting between two teams, seems to trump everything--and yet, when two teams meet twice in a season, it never results in the same game being played twice.  Part of this is adjustment; both teams learned a lot about each other from the first meeting.  That might lead to some of the Whack-a-Mole effect I discussed above: if the Lions come out defending the short pass with press man coverage, and linebackers in zones behind them, the Vikings might immediately attack the sidelines deep, and rush AD often, without fearing the run blitz.

However, we could spend all day playing the “I know that YOU know that I know that YOU know . . .” game: 

Rather than attempt to decide which dimension of the Vikings' offense holds the iocaine, let's go right back to the data.  Despite the second-best offense in the NFL meeting the second-worst defense, that offense underperformed its season averages.  I originally concluded that the Gunther Cunningham 4-3 disproportionately disrupts Childress’ conservative flavor, and that conclusion was indisputably correct.

Now, I didn’t make an actual prediction for the game beyond “a medium-to-low scoring slugfest”; I was just starting this feature, and hadn’t refined it to the level I have now.  Therefore, I’ll simply refine my original prediction: Given a huge talent and execution advantage, but a definite systemic disadvantage, I expect the Vikings will meet or slightly underperform their season averages: scoring 27-30 points, passing for 6.75-7.0 yards per attempt, and rushing for 3.75-4.0 yards per carry.  I have very high confidence in this prediction.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

I’ve noticed that when there are two in-season games between two teams, two primary factors cause the results to vary between games: weather tipping the run-pass balance towards “run”, and variances in quarterback play.  Obviously, these are two dome teams, so weather isn’t a factor.  Brett Favre has been playing generally better as the season wears on, and has developed a much stronger rapport with Vikings wideouts like Sidney Rice. 

However, he was essentially flawless in the first meeting between two teams; how much better could he play?  The Lions’ defense, meanwhile, has been playing generally better as the season wears on as well (their current averages are still skewed by the Saints and Bears blowouts).  Their pass rush, especially, has been markedly better.

The final result of this should be that Favre has a lower completion percentage, gets sacked more often, and possibly commits a turnover or two—but he should also complete more deep passes, possibly for devastating quick-strike TDs.  I’m going to cite the Whack-a-Mole principle and call this all a wash; in the end, the Vikings should meet the objective statistical predictions.

Scott Linehan vs. Leslie Frazier

Lin	Fraz	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
MIN	TBB	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	1st	12.2	4.88	3.79	24	7.78	2	7.52	3-11
MIN	IND	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	19th	21.9	7.15	4.43	28	8.89	0	5.75	2-1
MIA	TBB	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	8th	17.1	6.15	3.46	13	6.21	0	3.56	3-2
DET	MIN	26th	16.6	5.27	3.92	17th	21.8	6.89	4.14	13	5.07	2	3.79	2-1

In the previous installment, I also identified a mild systemic advantage for Scott Linehan offenses against Dungy-style Tampa 2 defenses.  When Linehan had a talent advantage over the Dungy D, the running game was even more effective.  When Linehan had lesser talent, this systemic advantage seemed very mild or nonexistent.

In Week 2, this analysis was confirmed: the Lions scored 13 points, just a little beneath their season average.  The Lions managed 5.07 YpA against the Vikings; just a little beneath their season average.  The Lions ran for 3.79 YpC; just a little beneath their season average.  Considering that the Lions’ offense is the 26th-best in the NFL, and the Vikings are the 17th, underperforming averages across the board is exactly what you’d expect.  It could be argued that the Lions underperformed their averages less than expected--indicating that a systemic advantage affected the outcome--but that would be assigning big significance to some very, very small variances.

I originally concluded that given lesser talent, Scott Linehan’s balanced offense meets or slightly exceeds expectations against a Dungy-style defense, even while allowing more sacks and/or turnovers.  This conclusion was confirmed by the results of Week 2.

Again, I’ll refine my original prediction: with lesser talent, and therefore a small-to-zero systemic advantage, the Lions will slightly underperform, or approach, their season averages: 14-17 points scored, 5.0-5.25 YpA, and 3.75-4.0 YpC.  I have very high confidence in this prediction.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Again, what will be the biggest factor in differentiating Week 10’s results from Week 2’s?  Effective quarterback play.  Now, Matt Stafford’s Week 2 game against the Vikings was no great shakes: 18-of-30 for 152 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs.  However, that was a notable improvement from Week 1.  Tellingly, it was not yet as good as his best game as a pro: his 21-of-36, 241-yard, 1 TD/0 INT Week 3 win over the Redskins.

Once he’d established this very, very steep upwards trend line, he got hurt, and the offense completely fell apart.  It was clear against St. Louis that Stafford was rusty; his balls were inaccurate, and very frequently dropped.  It was similarly clear that Kevin Smith was not 100%; he looked hesitant and slow.  It was sparklingly, scintillatingly, absolutely crystal clear that without the threat of Megatron, defenses could simply smother the Lions with in-the-box defenders and press coverage.

However, against the Seahawks, it was clear that the offense that had started the season--the one that had averaged over 20 points in the first four games--had returned, leaving behind the miserable 10 PpG offense we'd seen against the Steelers, Packers, and Rams. With Stafford and Megatron both in the lineup, this offense would the 19th-best in the league, virtually tied with Seattle on a per-game basis. Without them both, it would be very nearly the worst; ahead of only the Rams, Browns, and Raiders.  This is the “Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde” phenomenon I referred to last week.

Matthew Stafford's five interceptions cost the Lions the Seattle game; there's no doubt about that. Two of those picks came when Stafford failed to see a extra-deep linebacker playing centerfield--the cornerstone principle of the Tampa 2 defense.  The Seahawks just installed the Tampa 2 this season--and the Vikings are an established T2 team.  One would hope that this is a point of coaching emphasis this week!  If Stafford can cut the picks down from five to the two he threw in Week 2, and move the ball with the effectiveness he did against Seattle, the Lions’ O could drastically exceed expectations.

Would it surprise you to learn that the Seahawks are allowing only 20.88 points per game on defense; 13th-best in the league?  Would it further surprise you to learn that Minnesota’s is the 17th-best in the league, allowing 21.75?  I hope not; we’ve covered those figures very recently!  But even so, it’s shocking to see it in black and white: this season, Seattle is executing the Tampa 2 slightly better than Minnesota is.

So: if we continue down this primrose path, we can conclude that this matchup is "really" between Dr. Jekyll, the 19th-best scoring offense, and the 17-best scoring defense--and therefore, the systemic advantage that Linehan offenses possess against T2s should express itself, and the Lions should strongly outperform their "real" season averages, especially on the ground. The averages for the "Dr. Jekyll" Lions offense (Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, and 9) are 20.6 PpG, 5.55 YpA, and 3.80 YpC.  Therefore, in Fantasyland, the Lions will score 27-30 points, pass for 6.00-6.25 YpA, and rush for 4.5-4.75 YpC.

Conclusion:

Unfortunately, even if you buy tickets to the "Fantasyland" I've constructed, the Lions and Vikings are both projected to score 27-30 points.  Further, with the way the Vikings are cutting through the league right now, and the way the Lions have been playing, I simply cannot see the Lions playing 60 minutes of “Dr. Jekyll” football in the Metrodome.  Moreover, one of the “Dr. Jekyll” games was against Minnesota, and as competitive as that game was (I was there), 27-13 is not the same as winning.  I’m going to stick with my original projections—the data is rock-solid—and say that the Lions will lose this week, scoring 14-17 points against Minnesota’s 25-30.

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the watchtower: Lions vs. Vikings

In last week’s Watchtower, we matched up the historical OC vs. DC tendencies to see if there were any schematic mismatches—that is, if either team had a systemic advantage over the other.  Looking over the history, and the presumed talent levels of each team, we came to a conclusion: the most probable outcome of the game was a shootout that the Lions lose.

Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened--though some of the Lions’ scoring contributions relied heavily on special teams providing great field position, and one of the TDs was defensive.  It seems as though the breakdown, though statistically flawed--very small samples of head-to-head matchups, relying entirely on the mean averages of 16 data points, etc.—had enough predictive value to be worthwhile.

This week, the Lions take on the Vikings.  Again, the Linehan offenses are the 2006-2008 Rams, the 2005 Dolphins, and the 2002-2004 Vikings.  Gunther defenses include the 1995-2000 Chiefs, and the 2004-2006 Chiefs.  I tentatively include data from his 2001-2003 stint as linebackers coach with the Titans, since Jim Schwartz was the DC at that time--but the Lions’ scheme is thought to more closely resemble Gun’s system in KC than the balanced D Schwartz ran in Tennessee, so I include those years on a case-by-case basis.  I also discount Cunningham’s ‘06, ‘07, and ‘08 seasons in KC, as he merely executed Edwards’ conservative flavor of the Tampa 2 defense.

For Minnesota, I’m calling the 2002-2005 Eagles and 2006-2008 Vikings “Childress” offenses.  Unfortunately, Lions OC Scott Linehan never faced off against Minny DC Leslie Frazier as a head coach or offensive coordinator.  However, we know that Frazier, after studying under Jim Johnson in Philly, and a contentious two-year run as the DC in Cincinnati, became Tony Dungy’s star pupil in Indianapolis, and now runs the Tampa 2.  Therefore, I included Linehan’s games against Dungy’s Colts and Monte Kiffin’s Bucs defenses.

/tr>

Chi	GC	Ornk	PPG	Ypa	Ypc	Drnk	PPG	P	YpA	Int	YpC	Fum	Sak
PHI	TEN	4th	25.9	6.18	4.54	11th	20.2	24	5.89	2	3.64	1-1	6-31
PHI	KCC	18th	19.4	5.93	3.92	16th	20.3	37	7.68	1	1.64	3-1	1-1
MIN	KCC	15th	22.8	6.35	5.33	14th	20.9	10	5.82	0	4.24	2-1	5-36

In the first matchup, we see that Philly comes in as a potent scoring offense, ranking 4th in the NFL with 25.9 ppg.  Note they ran the ball especially well, with 4.54 yards per carry.  Tennessee’s defense was solid; ranked 11th, at 20.2 points per game.  I’d expect scoring to be right at or just below Philly’s average on the season—and indeed it was: 24 points scored.

The passing yards-per-attempt was right about on target (6.18 avg., 5.89 actual), but look at the rushing!  Philly rushed for 0.9 ypc below average for that game; it was also on 22 attempts, so they didn’t just abandon the run—and the only rushers were starting RB Duce Staley and QB Donovan McNabb, so it’s not as if injuries were a concern.  Also, look at the disruption numbers: 2 picks, 1 fumble lost, and six sacks for a loss of 31 yards!  Still, this was with Schwartz making defensive calls, not Gunther, so let’s hold off on drawing conclusions.

In 2005, the Eagles were a below-the-median scoring offense, ranked 18th with 19.4 ppg.  Passing for 5.93 yards per attempt, and rushing for 3.92, the Childress-led offense was considerably less fearsome.  Though not boasting anywhere near the personnel the ‘02 Titans had, the Cunningham-coordinated Chiefs were the 16th-best scoring defense, allowing a mean 20.3 points per game.  The expectation would be a very-close-to-average output by Philly—but instead, they blew up with 37 points, and passed far more effectively than usual(5.93 avg., 7.68 actual).  Terrell Owens had a huge day (11-171, 2 TD). 

However, the Philly running game was again stymied.  Brian Westbrook and Lamar Gordon combined for just 28 yards on 17 carries.  KC also forced three fumbles, recovering one, picked off a pass, and sacked McNabb once.  Since the first data point is still “iffy”, I’m going to look at the last one.

In 2007, the two coordinators again have closely-matched, close-to-the-median scoring units: the Vikings were ranked 15th with 22.8 average points scored, and the Chiefs were the 14th-ranked scoring defense, allowing an average 20.9 points per game.  The ‘07 Vikes looked much like the ‘02 Eagles: passing for 6.35 ypa, but absolutely toting it for 5.33 ypc.  The Chiefs allowed an average of 20.9 points per game, ranking them 16th in the NFL and matching Minnesota’s average output.  Therefore, we have a very strong expectation that Minnesota will score 21 points.  However, they only mustered 10.

They passed much less effectively, gaing 0.53 fewer yards per attempt than their average.  The juggernaut running game was staunched even more, gaining 1.09 yards fewer than expected with every attempt.  Also, we see another raft of sacks (5-36), and 2 fumbles (1 lost).

We see the same pattern in all three games; therefore I feel safe concluding the following: given equal or lesser talent and execution, Gunther Cunningham’s hyperaggressive 4-3 disproportionately disrupts Brad Childress’s conservative Walsh-style offense, especially in the running game.  However, a very effective deep passing game can stretch the defense, reduce QB pressure, and produce points.

Lin.	T2	Ornk	PPG	Ypa	Ypc	Drnk	PPG	P	YpA	Int	YpC	Fum	Sak
MIN	TBB	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	1st	12.2	24	7.75	2	7.52	3-11	2-1
MIN	IND	6th	25.3	8.18	4.71	19th	21.9	28	8.89	0	5.75	2-1	2-15
MIA	TBB	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	8th	17.1	13	6.21	0	3.56	3-2	4-24

Linehan had a very strong roster when he first faced a Dungy-style defense—24.4 ppg (8th best in the NFL), and carrying for 5.3 ypc.  However, those Bucs were ridiculous; the #1 scoring defense, allowing a miniscule 12.2 points per game!  Yet, the Vikings weren’t slowed down at all.  They scored their average 24 points, passed for a well above average 7.75 yards per attempt, and rumbled all over the Bucs for an absolutely ridiculous 7.52 yards per carry.  The disruption numbers were very high: 2 picks, 3 fumbles (2 lost), and 2 sacks, but with a young Daunte Culpepper at the helm, that was not unexpected for those Vikings.

Against Dungy’s Colts in 2004, Linehan’s Vikings were again very strong: 6th-best in the league with 25.3 ppg, passing for 8.18 ypa, and rushing for 4.71 ypc.  The Colts, however, weren’t executing that Tampa 2 nearly as well as the ‘02 Bucs: the Colts were a below-median scoring defense, allowing 21.9 points per game.  One would think the Vikings would outperform their average, and that’s exactly what happens: 28 points, a robust 8.89 ypa, and a walloping 5.75 ypc—0.71 and 1.04 yards per play above their season averages, respectively!  Again some disruption: 2 fumbles, 1 lost, and 2 sacks—but overall, a strong Linehan O met a mediocre Dungy D and mildly outperformed expectations. 

Finally, we see the 2005 Dolphins, the median offense that season (19.9), going against the 8th-ranked Buccaneers, who were allowing only 17.1 yards per game.  The expectation would be that the Dolphins’ offense scores well below season averages, and that’s what happens—they muster only 13 points.  However, the passing game and running game each hover near their in-season per-play expecations (5.94 avg,, 6.21 act.; 3.69 avg., 3.56 act.).  There is, again, a lot of disruption (2 fumbles, 1 lost, 5 sacks for –36 yards), but this time it can’t be blamed on Culpepper.

Strong patterns are emerging, so I feel pretty comfortable in making this statement: given greater or equal talent, Scott Linehan’s balanced offense significantly outperforms its averages when facing a Dungy-style Tampa 2, especially against the run.  Given lesser talent, Linehan’s offense meets or mildly outperforms expectations against a T2.  However, a disproportionate amount of sacks and turnovers seem to be created by a Tampa 2 when facing a Linehan offense.

It’s that pesky turnover thing that will make the difference; if Minnesota sacks Stafford five or six times and generates two or three turnovers, the Lions  will have an extremely hard time keeping pace, even if the ground game is working well (and scheme or no, nobody runs on the Williams Wall!).  However, Minnesota’s lack of a downfield passing game should allow Gunther Cunningham to turn up the defensive heat to an extreme level, which should have a disproportionately disruptive effect on the Vikings’ offense.

Given how amazing Adrian Peterson looked in the Vikings’ first game, and how inept the Lions looked against the Saints, it’s tempting to say this will be a blowout—however, the Vikings didn’t blow out the Browns, and I don’t think this one will be a blowout either.  It appears as though the Lions have a decided systemic advantage on both sides of the ball, assuming Gunther feels safe enough to crank up the heat.  It remains to be seen if those advantages will be enough to overcome the gap in talent on both sides of the ball.

Therefore, the most likely result of this game is a closely contested, medium-to-low scoring slugfest, with a lot of turnovers and penalties.  It is slightly more likely that Minnesota’s talent overcomes Detroit’s systemic advantages, but this will be a volatile game in Detroit’s home opener.

There IS some room for hope here. But to cash in, the running game will have to improve, Stafford will need to limit turnovers, and Gunther will have be as Gunther as he can be. Also, be prepared for another round of ref-trashing, replay controversy, obnoxious flags, and trash-talking. Me? I'll be up in the Roar Zone, doing plenty of roaring.

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Jim Schwartz Meets With Detroit Lions Media: Rumors and Lies

Last night, the interwebs fairly well exploded with reports that Titans DC Jim Schwartz (codename: 'Grandmaster') was flying in to Detroit to interview—and Pro Football Talk's sources claimed (click the 'exploded') that the Titans were convinced Schwartz's flight to the 'D' was on a one-way ticket.  In the red-eyed dawn of another frozen Monday, though, things still look to be fairly unsettled.  Many outlets are reporting that Leslie Frazier and Miami DB coach/assistant HC Todd Bowles (to whom it may concern piece still coming) are still due to be brought in for second interviews.

Interestingly enough, the Grandmaster was allowed to hold a presser for the Detroit media today.  Given the total radio silence from Lions officials since the Lions' officials officially became Lions officials, letting a candidate get up on the dais and address the media--albeit briefly--seems incongrous.  I'm reminded of the presser Rod Marinelli held to announce that the Lions had not yet hired Mike Martz to be the new offensive coordinator, and spent the entire time trying to remind himself to throw in an "IF we hire him" when responding to questions.  Sayeth Schwartz: "I think it's time to find a replacement for Bobby Layne".

NFL.com's Adam Schefter has since reported that the Lions also contacted Chargers DC Ron Rivera again--as a reminder, last week Rivera rebuffed the Lions (and any other team that came calling) so he could focus 100% on preparing his defense to get pistol whipped by Big Ben and the Steelers.  I haven't heard anything on an interview being scheduled, merely the Lions brass courteously following up.

According to the Newark Star-Ledger, Candidate 1A is now far behind Ravens DC Rex Ryan for the Jets' head coaching position.  He was at least superficially courted by everyone with an opening, but the Jets seemed to be the franchise with the most serious interest--and the most mutual interest.

One fewer musical chair: while Leslie Frazier had been heavily rumored to be in the final two for the Broncos gig, today the Broncos hired Patriots OC Josh McDaniels.  Mangini, McDaniels--all the offensive guys with "M" names are getting snapped up by other teams; that is fine with me.  If the Ravens do hire Rex Ryan, that leaves the Rams, the Raiders (who haven't yet lined up all the high school coaches they want to interview), and us as the final teams looking for a skipper.  This means that even if Mayhew and Lewand take their time, we'll probably still have our pick of Candidate 1A, The Grandmaster, Frazier, and Bowles--probably the top four candidates on the Lions' board.  Not too shabby for the worst team ever--just hope the Rams hire Mike Mularkey.

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